→ July 18, 2020
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Stick to baseball, 7/18/20.

I didn’t write anything this week other than the review here of Patrick Radden Keefe’s book Say Nothing and my review of the lovely little light strategy game Walking in Burano. I will do a season preview with some picks for breakout candidates this week for subscribers to The Athletic, as well as a new game review for Paste, and a Zoom Q&A session on The Athletic’s site on Thursday at 3 pm ET. I answered reader questions on a mailbag episode of my podcast last week.

My book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is out now, just in time for Opening Day (okay, three months before, but who’s counting). You can order it anywhere you buy books, and I recommend bookshop.org. I’ll also resume my email newsletter this week once I have some new content.

I’ll be speaking at the U.S. Army Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Virtual Conference on Tuesday at 9:30 am ET, talking about topics from The Inside Game. You can register to watch the event here.

And now, the links…

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→ July 15, 2020
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Say Nothing.

Patrick Radden Keefe won the National Book Critics Circle Award for Non-Fiction this spring for his book Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland, a well-deserved honor for what is easily one of the best narrative non-fiction books I’ve ever read. The future of the NBCC is in doubt after mass resignations over the behavior of board member Carlin Romano in the wake of the board’s attempt to draft a strong statement on structural racism in the publishing world, but with this, Everything Inside (Fiction) and The Queen (Biography), they picked three tremendous books for their three big awards in this cycle.

Say Nothing is the story of the disappearance of Jean McConville, a widowed Protestant mother of eight, in Belfast in 1972, who was “disappeared” and whose body wasn’t even found for forty years. Keefe uses that as a framing device to provide an incredibly detailed, unsparing history of the Troubles, taking advantage of the trove of new information that has become available in the last decade on the conflict, including copious interviews with people actually involved in the violence who spoke to historians working at Boston College.

McConville was one of sixteen people who were considered Disappeared from the Troubles, and her case, and its ultimate resolution, work extremely well as a point of entry to discuss the conflict as a whole – particularly because some of the people involved in or with knowledge of her abduction were major figures in the Troubles. Keefe walks back to the origins of the strife between Catholics and Protestants in the six counties of Northern Ireland, focusing on the rise of the Irish Republican Army and its various splits (into the Official IRA and the Provisional IRA), and on the violent repression by the British authorities that created a war zone in Belfast for decades.

Keefe shifts the focus in the second chapter, after depicting McConville’s abduction, to Dolous and Marian Price, Catholic sisters who joined the Provisional IRA, the terrorist wing of the group that sought the unification of all of Ireland and expulsion of the British from Ulster at any cost. These two fanatical women were involved in numerous critical events of the Troubles, including the car bombing of the Old Bailey and other London sites in 1973, for which she went to prison; the first series of IRA hunger strikes in the 1970s; and several of the abductions of the Disappeared. Dolours eventually gave up her role in the violent struggle but remained politically active, opposing the Good Friday Agreement and eventually revealing that Gerry Adams was far more involved in IRA violence than he admitted, while Marian continued to engage in terrorist activity well into her 50s. The two make fascinating characters to study while conveniently bringing the narrative to several events critical in any retelling of the Troubles.

The Belfast Project provided Keefe with a wealth of material to fill in much of the historical record on the McConville case and many other Provisional IRA operations from the late 1960s until the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998, thanks to hours of in-person interviews the two historians behind the project conducted with former and even still current IRA members. The original intent was for the content of those interviews to remain confidential until after each subject’s death, and after the first few passed away, including Brendan Hughes, who ran multiple terror attacks for the IRA against British soldiers and also led the 1978 “dirty protest” and the 1980 Hunger Strike while in the prison known as Long Kesh, and who opposed the peace accord as too favorable to the United Kingdom. Hughes named many names, including the person he said ordered the abduction and murder of McConville, and these revelations – coming after Hughes’ death – led to prosecutions and an international court proceeding that eventually forced Boston College and the Project to turn over all of their interviews relating to specific crimes, even those that involved confessions by still-living persons. Without those materials, Keefe wouldn’t have much to add to the history of the Troubles beyond what had already been written by 2010, but the interviews with Hughes and Dolours Price both shed substantial light on multiple attacks and murders, also allowing Keefe to provide a conclusion to the Jean McConville story (albeit one that never led to a conviction). There’s also a tangent here about the nature of oral histories and whether the Belfast Project might have deserved some legal protection, although the school declined to fight the subpoena and subsequent efforts to invoke journalists’ privilege failed.

The detail is what carries the day here for Say Nothing; even if you’ve read about the Troubles before, as I had for a project while in college, you probably haven’t read anything this specific and well-structured. Keefe weaves multiple narratives together, giving nuance to so many of the people involved, even those who participated in multiple murders and carried out vicious campaigns of terror against their own neighbors and fellow citizens. You won’t leave with sympathy for Hughes or the Price sisters, but you will still get to see them as three-dimensional actors, and their revelations help give more texture to the portrayals of other major IRA figures all the way up to Gerry Adams, who had a whole second act as a politician and supporter of peace while denying that he was ever involved in the IRA – a lie that he was able to perpetuate for more than two decades because of the very code of silence that kept Jean McConville’s killers from ever facing justice.

Next up: Tony Collins’ The Oval World: A Global History of Rugby.

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→ July 12, 2020
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Walking in Burano.

Walking in Burano is a 2018 game from Taiwanese designer Wei-Min Ling, who also designed the semi-abstract, chess-like game Shadows in Kyoto; and Mystery of the Temples. Ling owns one of the most important board game publishers in Asia, EmperorS4, which produced Hanamikoji and Realm of Sand, and uses Taiwanese artist Maisherly Chan for the majority of their games. With great art and a fairly simple set of mechanics, Walking in Burano is one of the best EmperorS4 games yet, not quite at Hanamikoji’s level but on par with their other top titles, especially given how quickly you can learn to play.

Players in Walking in Burano will acquire cards from the central market to create three-story buildings on their streets, ultimately filling out a 3×5 grid with five scoring cards, one beneath each house. These represent streets on the Venetian island of Burano, and the idea is to appeal to tourists and locals with various combinations of features on single buildings or streets as a whole. The catch is that building cards come in six colors, where each building (or house, they’re the same in this game) must comprise three cards of the same color, but adjacent buildings can’t share a color – unless you want to use one of your ‘rule-breaking’ tokens to break that rule and cede three points at game-end.

The market has three rows of cards, each of which corresponds to a specific floor of the houses you’ll be constructing. You may take one, two, or three cards from any column in the market, although you must start with the top or bottom row and can’t skip the middle card (e.g., you can take cards 1, 3, 1-2, 2-3, or 1-2-3). If you take an entire column, you don’t get any coins; if you take one card, you get two coins, and if you take two cards, you get one coin. You may then choose to build as many floors as you can afford, with the first floor you build on any turn costing you one coin, the second costing two coins more, and the third two coins beyond that. You get two scaffolding cards that you can move as needed, so you don’t have to build from the first floor up. You don’t have to build cards immediately when you take them; you can keep up to three from one turn to the next.

Once you complete any building of three cards, you can choose a scoring card from the available supply. There are four tourist cards that are worth four points each, and then give you additional points based on what’s showing on the three cards in the building you just finished – one point per flower pot, one point per plant, three points per cat, or two points per cat/awning/lamp/chimney. There are seven inhabitant cards in the base game, the supply of which is more limited, that offer very different bonuses that often apply to entire floors or to several adjacent cards. (I also have the one mini-expansion for the game, which adds three more inhabitants; you shuffle all ten types together and randomly choose seven to use in any single game.)

Once any player finishes their fifth building, it triggers game-end. You get points from your bonus cards, points from some first-floor cards that show shops, and 3 points for each rule-breaking token you still have. All players then count their “closed” windows on cards, those with X’s on them, and the player with the most loses one point per such window.

Even tough turns are quick, there’s quite a bit of strategy involved in Walking in Burano, as you try to collect certain symbols on cards to maximize your potential bonuses from cards you don’t yet have. You can end up losing out on a bonus card after collecting the house cards that would have granted you a huge bonus from it; you won’t end up with nothing, as you get another bonus card, but you’ll probably get fewer points than you’d planned. You are also betting on the availability of future cards, and future symbols, regularly during the game.

The rules also include a solo mode that works extremely well, almost exactly mirroring the two-player rules (where, after each round, you remove all cards in the rightmost column of the market, to keep it moving and create a bit more urgency), but also requiring you to remove one Character bonus card of your choice after each turn. This creates an upper bound on the number of turns you can take, as the game ends either when you complete your fifth building or when there are no bonus cards remaining, after which you score your street as you would in a multi-player game, deducting one point for every closed window you have, then comparing your score to the table in the rules.

Walking in Burano only came out in the United States in 2019, although the Chinese edition was released a year earlier, and I think the timing of the U.S. release during the flood of July/August releases last year led it to fall through the cracks. It’s pretty great across the board – easy to learn, quick game time, deeper strategically than you’d guess at first glance, with gorgeous art. Light-strategy games in small boxes that give you more to chew on than the typical short game are right in my wheelhouse, since it’s just easier to get people to sit for a game that’s short and that doesn’t require a long explanation of the rules; Walking in Burano is exactly that kind of game.

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→ July 11, 2020
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Stick to baseball, 7/11/20.

I had one solo post for The Athletic subscribers this week, something out of the ordinary: To participate in the site’s Book Blitz, I gave 25 recommendations for non-sports books, five apiece in literary novels, sci-fi/fantasy, detective/mystery, non-fiction, and short story collections. I also joined the site’s Authors Roundtable, answering some questions on the book-writing process.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Floor Plan, a new roll-and-write from Deep Water (publishers of Welcome To…) that is quite easy to learn, but where the theme and the strategy don’t work together.

My second book, The Inside Game, is out now, and you can buy it on bookshop.org through that link, or find it at your local independent bookstore.

And now, the links…

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→ July 9, 2020
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The Dutch House.

Ann Patchett’s The Dutch House was one of the three finalists for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, losing the top honor to Colson Whitehead’s The Nickel Boys. The honor was long overdue for Patchett, who received a Pen Faulkner award and what is now called the Women’s Prize for Fiction for Bel Canto and was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award for Commonwealth. She’s in the uppermost echelon of American novelists, and worthy of more critical acclaim than she’s received. The Dutch House isn’t her best – that would be Bel Canto, a more ambitious novel that Patchett says was her attempt to write her take on The Magic Mountain – but it’s something different from her, a return to the narrower character studies of her earlier career but with greater emotional depth, informed by the wisdom of a quarter-century of living.

 The Dutch House tells the story of Danny, the narrator, and his older sister Maeve, who live in the colossal estate that gives the book its title, in the northeast Philadelphia suburbs. Their mother left the family several years earlier for unknown reasons, leaving them with their real estate mogul father, who, as the novel opens, is about to marry Andrea, a much younger woman, and then brings her and her two daughters into the house. Andrea loves the house and the status it confers, but has little use for Danny or Maeve, and eventually casts them out when the opportunity presents itself, starting the siblings on decades of acrimony and grief for what they lost, emotions and memories they process by parking outside the house, often for hours, over the ensuing years.

Danny tells us the story, but Maeve is just as much a central character here, better developed than Danny is, and the most influential figure in Danny’s life. (As an aside, I couldn’t help but picture Maeve as Emma Mackey, who plays the character by that name on Sex Education.) Maeve has the memories of their mother that Danny lacks, and has just enough of an advantage of age to be wiser and more perceptive than her brother, which serves them both well when Andrea arrives on the scene. She’s a diabetic, which becomes significant at multiple points in the book, and appears to sacrifice some of her future to help Danny – although it’s possible her motives are mixed up with nostalgia and an unwillingness to leave the area where she grew up.

The story jumps forward and back in time, so we see Danny as an adult, after medical school, then find out how and why he ended up pursuing that academic path from the point where we first saw him as a kid who played basketball and loved going around with his father once a month to collect rent and see properties, but didn’t have a ton of use for school. The relationships between the siblings and their distant father, and the siblings and the two older women who work in the house and end up helping raise the kids – at least until Andrea kicks them out –  form part of a foundation for both Danny and Maeve as they mature into adulthood. The problem they encounter is that the void left by their mother’s departure, which they’re told was so she could go help the poor in India, leaves the foundation incomplete, and their obsessive, nostalgic attachment to the house, even after there’s no one living there who truly matters to them, seems both symbolic of what they’ve lost and a sad testament to how the past can prevent us from moving into the future.

I had a hard time reading Danny’s voice for at least a solid third of the book, continually ‘hearing’ the narrator as a young girl, probably because I know Ann Patchett’s style so well (and know that she’s a woman), and can’t recall her writing in the first person for a male character before. That sensation faded as Danny grew up in the first half of the novel and his voice became more distinctive, while he also felt like more of a participant in the action rather than a passive observer (to whom many things happen, however). I think this also arose because Maeve is a much more clearly defined character from the start of the book, while Danny starts out as unmolded clay and grows into adulthood before the reader, a maturation that comes in fits and starts and doesn’t end up where you – or Maeve – expect it to finish.

Of all contemporary authors whose work I know, Patchett might have the most empathy toward her main characters, no matter how flawed; only Andrea, who is a bit of a one-dimensional plot device here, misses out on this, while her two daughters, Maeve and Danny’s mother, and the nanny who was fired when Danny was just four all reappear in some form before the novel is out to get resolution, if not actual redemption. You can probably see the main plot event at the book’s conclusion coming, but I was neither surprised nor dismayed to see it happen, because in Patchett’s better novels, the pleasure of reading is in the journey. These two characters are so richly textured, and so realistic, that I was willing to buy into the less believable aspects of the story, just to get to the end of Danny’s arc, and to read more of Patchett’s prose.

Next up: I just finished Patrick Radden Keefe’s Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland yesterday.

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→ July 6, 2020
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Mindware.

I appeared on the Inquiring Minds podcast this spring to promote my book The Inside Game, and co-host Adam Bristol recommended a book to me after the show, Dr. Richard Nisbett’s Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking. Dr. Nisbett is a professor of social psychology at the University of Michigan and co-directs the school’s Culture and Cognition program, and a good portion of Mindware focuses on how our environment affects our cognitive processes, especially the unconscious mind, as he gives advice on how to improve our decision-making processes and better understand the various ways our minds work.

Nisbett starts out the book with an obvious but perhaps barely understood point: Our understanding of the world around us is a matter of construal, a combination of inferences and interpretations, because of the sheer volume of information and stimuli coming into our brains at all times, and how much of what we see or hear is indirect. (If you want to get particularly technical, even what we see directly is still a matter of interpretation; even something as seemingly concrete as color is actually a sensation created in the brain, an interpolation of different wavelengths of light that also renders colors more stable in our minds than they would be if we were just relying on levels of illumination.) So when we run into biases or illusions that affect our inferences and interpretations, we will proceed on the basis of unreliable information.

He then breaks down three major ways in which we can understand how our minds process all of these stimuli. One is that our environments affect how we think and how we behave far more than we realize they do. Another is that our unconscious minds do far more work than we acknowledge, including processing environmental inputs that we may not actively register. And the third is that we see and interpret the world through schemas, frameworks or sets of heuristics that we use to make sense of the world and simplify the torrent of information coming at us.

From that outline, Nisbett marches through a series of cognitive biases and errors, many of which overlap with those I covered in The Inside Game, but explains more of how cognition is affected by external stimuli, including geography (the subject of one of his previous books), culture, and “preperception” – how the subconscious mind gets you started before you actively begin to perceive things. This last point is one of the book’s most powerful observations: We don’t know why we know what we know, and we can’t always account for our motives and reasons, even if we’re asked to explain them directly. Subjects of experiments will deny that their choices or responses were influenced by stimuli that seem dead-obvious to outside observers. They can be biased by anchors that have nothing to do with the topic of the questions, and even show effects after the ostensible study itself – for example, that subjects exposed to more words related to aging will walk more slowly down the hall out of the study room than those exposed to words relate to youth or vitality. It seems absurd, but multiple studies have shown effects like these, as with the study I mentioned in my book about students’ guesses on quantities being biased by the mere act of writing down the last two digits of their social security numbers. We would like to think that our brains don’t work that way, but they do.

Nisbett is a psychologist but crosses comfortably into economics territory, including arguments in favor of using cost/benefit analyses any time a decision has significant costs and the process allows you the time to perform such an analysis. He even gets into the thorny question of how much a life is worth, which most people do not want to consider but which policymakers have to consider when making major decisions on, say, how much and for how long to shut down the economy in the face of a global pandemic. There is some death rate from COVID-19 that we would – and should – accept, and to figure that out, we have to consider what values to put on the lives that might be lost at each level of response, and then compare that to economic benefits of remaining open or additional costs of overloaded hospitals. “Zero deaths” is the compassionate answer, but it isn’t the rational one; if zero deaths in a pandemic were even possible, it would be prohibitively expensive in time and money, so much so that it would cause suffering (and possibly deaths) from other causes.

In the conclusion to Mindware, Dr. Nisbett says that humans are “profligate causal theorists,” and while that may not quite roll off the tongue, it’s a pithy summary of how our minds work. We are free and easy when it comes to finding patterns and ascribing causes to outcomes, but far less thorough when it comes to testing these hypotheses, or even trying to make these hypotheses verifiable or falsifiable. It’s the difference between science and pseudoscience, and between a good decision-making process and a dubious one. (You can still make a good decision with a bad process!) This really is a great book if you like the kind of books that led me to write The Inside Game, or just want to learn more about how your brain deals with the huge volume of information it gets each day so that you can make better decisions in your everyday life.

Next up: I just finished Ann Patchett’s The Dutch House this weekend and am about halfway through Patrick Keefe’s Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland.

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→ July 5, 2020
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Top albums of 2020 so far.

This year has sucked across multiple dimensions, but new music has been one of the few bright spots of the first half of 2020 – although I worry that there’s a time lag here, and we’re getting great singles and albums recorded before the world ended. Anyway, here are the best albums I have heard so far this year.

7. SAULT – Untitled (Black Is). SAULT released one of the best albums of 2019 but did so after my 2019 rankings came out – in fact, they released two albums (7 and 5) last year, and both were great, but I didn’t hear either until May of this year. The identities of the band members are still unknown, but they’ve gained some critical attention nonetheless for their soul/funk/spoken word sound, and with Untitled (Black Is) they’ve become overtly political with a series of anthems supporting Black Lives Matter and other causes of equality and justice. Standout tracks include “Bow,” featuring Michael Kiwanuka; “Monsters;” “Why We Cry Why We Die;” and “Black.”

6. Tame Impala – The Slow Rush. I’ve always been a few degrees short of the critical acclaim for Kevin Parker’s music; I’ve liked many of his tracks but he often needs an editor to rein him in, and his albums haven’t come together as well as they should. The Slow Rush still has too many tracks that go on too long – half of the twelve songs here run five minutes or more, up to 7:13 for the closer – but it’s the most coherent record he’s released to date. Standout singles include “Borderline,” “Lost in Yesterday,” and “Breathe Deeper.”

5. Bananagun – The True Story of Bananagun. I only heard about this Melbourne psychedelic rock/funk group a few weeks ago, but I’m all about this album and their strange mélange of late ’60s flower-child rock and funk guitar work from the decade afterwards. Standout tracks include “The Master,” “Freak Machine,” and “Bang Go the Bongos.”

4. Waxahatchee – Saint Cloud. Folk-rocker Katie Crutchfield bares her soul, recounting her struggles with alcoholism and decision to get sober after her previous album, the uneven Out in the Storm (which still gave us “Never Been Wrong”), and the result is her best and most complete album to date. Standout tracks include “Lilacs,” “Can’t Do Much,” and “Hell.”

3. Grimes – Miss Anthropocene. A good example of when to separate the art from the artist. Grimes’ last album, Art Angels, was my #1 album of 2015; this record is more experimental and expansive, but still has several tracks that stand well on their own thanks to strong melodies, including “Violence,” “4ÆM,” and “Delete Forever.”

2. Khruangbin – Mordechai. I was late to the Khruangbin party, only hearing their last album, Con Todo El Mundo, a year after it came out, helped by The RFK Tapes’ podcast’s use of “Maria También” as its theme song. I think I got here just in time, though, as Mordechai is going to be their big breakout, as it has the same kind of Thai jazz/funk/rock hybrid sound as their last album, but now with extensive vocals from all three members. Standout tracks include “Pelota,” “Time (You and I),” the funky “So We Won’t Forget,” and “Connaissais de Face.”

1. Moses Boyd – Dark Matter. I don’t have any comparison for this album by percussionist Moses Boyd, one half of Binker and Moses. It’s a dark, swirling journey of modern jazz and house that has the energy of improvisational music but the tighter focus and melodic sensibility of more mainstream genres. Standout tracks include the stellar “Shades of You” (feat. Poppy Ajudha), shimmering opener “Stranger than Fiction,” and the guitar-laden “Y.O.Y.O.”

Upcoming albums I’m at least excited to hear: The Beths – Jump Rope Gazers (7/10); Dirty Streets – Rough and Tumble (7/31); Everything Everything’s RE-ANIMATOR (8/21); Cut Copy – Freeze, Melt (8/21); Sad13 – Haunted Painting (9/25); Doves – untitled (TBD); Noname – untitled (TBD).

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→ July 5, 2020
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Stick to baseball, 7/4/20.

For subscribers to The Athletic, I looked at the prospects who made their teams’ 60-player pools – and some notable prospect omissions as well. I held a Klawchat on Friday.

My latest podcast episode was one of my favorites so far. Dr. Akilah Carter-Francique of the Institute for the Study of Sport, Society, and Social Change at San Jose State University joined me to discuss her research on Black athletes’ experiences, their obstacles to playing and becoming coaches after playing, and what leagues and universities can do to break down structural barriers these athletes face.

My thanks to all of you who’ve already bought The Inside Game. If you’re looking to pick up a copy, you can get it at bookshop.org or perhaps at a local bookstore if they’re reopening near you.

I’m due for another issue my my email newsletter. You can sign up for free here.

And now, the links…

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→ July 3, 2020
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Klawchat 7/3/20.

My latest column for subscribers to the Athletic is up now, looking at prospects who were included in 60-man player pools, and notable omissions as well.

Keith Law: Where lands are green and skies are blue. Klawchat.

Matt: A few weeks ago there was a video of Tarik Skubal throwing 102 during a work out.  As a Tigers fan should I be concerned with him overthrowing like that or is stuff like that commonplace with pitchers when they train?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t be concerned, but I also wouldn’t believe that that was some new normal for him, or that he’ll start throwing like that in games. Kevin Gausman used to hit 102-103 in college by crow-hopping one throw at the end of his pregame warmups. That’s not real. And these guys throwing 101+ in highly controlled situations that show up on twitter videos are not going to throw that hard when they’re in real games, going 90-110 pitches, with actual batters and umpires involved.

Matt D: Does the cultural appropriation in board gaming ever give you pause? Ever passed on playing a game due to theme, artwork, accuracy, etc.? I struggle with this esp given prevalent whiteness of board gamers.
Keith Law: Yes, I gave a critical review to the original version of Five Tribes (since revised) for including slave cards in the game. The argument from the designer was that it was accurate to the history of the time and culture covered, but it was unnecessary and insensitive. I’ve avoided some other games with themes that made me uncomfortable, and shared a big article from the New York Times a year or so ago about a game that never saw the market that depicted European countries’ rush to colonize Africa around 1900.

Guest: I have to make a long term fantasy decision, Grayson Rodriguez or Tarik Skubal. Who is the better prospect?
Keith Law: Skubal for me. My answer to these questions will usually line up with my rankings of the players on my top 100, unless there’s a timing issue (one player being far closer to the majors than the other).

Guest: Kyle Wright or Felix Hernandez for the Braves 5th rotation slot
Keith Law: Depends a little on how Felix throws. If he has some velocity back, I’d be fine giving him the spot. I wonder if the longer layoff will help some older pitchers like him who’ve lost velocity in the last year or two.

Matt: I can’t be the only one nonplussed about celebrating tomorrow.
Keith Law: What is there to celebrate right now?

Guest: At what point do the Braves address the surplus of young, big league ready pitchers on the roster? Newcomb, Toussaint, Wilson, Wright, Muller and others seem stuck.
Keith Law: Some will end up in bullpen roles but I think we’ll see some of those names traded either in August or this offseason to fill an offensive hole somewhere.

Tom: How do you evaluate SP Jose Urquidy for Houston?
Keith Law: Fourth starter ceiling, since his four-seamer is probably too hittable. Full report on him in my Astros prospect rankings from the spring.

HH: Do you think it’s strange that after all this time baseball still doesn’t have a real definition of a “checked swing”?
Keith Law: I do, and I don’t. I do think it’s strange that the definition hasn’t been clarified in, what, decades? But I also can see an argument that a checked swing is about intent, and judging intent is inherently subjective.
Keith Law: I might look up that definition several times a year, because I find my mind tries to put language into it that isn’t there, and it’s so unsatisfying to get a non-answer from the rules.

Pat D.: Why are they still pretending like the Field of Dreams game is going to happen?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Field of Pipe Dreams is more like it.

Adam: What is the percent chance we see a game on the 23rd in your opinion?
Keith Law: I think we get games on the July 23rd. I am way less optimistic that we see games on September 23rd.

kc: what do you see out of Montas, Luzardo and Puk? Kaprelian, Jefferies?
Keith Law: All are covered in my Oakland prospect rankings. I do think that Luzardo and Puk belong in their rotation right now.

Will: You’re high on Bryce Wilson. Should the Braves move him now before they settle him into a bullpen role and kill his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think it would kill his value to use him in relief. Other teams have scouting reports from the last two years that show what he can do as a starter (and what he still needs to work on).

x: two questions about Atlanta already but your time has come! it’s over in Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland next right!?
Keith Law: Cleveland is far more egregious than Atlanta. I think if Cleveland falls – and my god, it has to now, it’s an absolute embarrassment that it’s even taken this long – then we can shift our focus to Atlanta (and the chant, it’s the chant more than anything).

Ryan: Hey Keith. My in laws are right wing nut jobs. They keep trying to get my wife to go visit them, but they don’t wear masks and insist that covid is a hoax. My wife is stressed out because she feels like she is betraying her family. I told my wife I don’t want her visiting them anymore with how much they don’t care. How should I handle this situation? For context, I’m in Arizona. Thank you.
Keith Law: You shouldn’t visit them – it’s now a matter of safety, especially since they’re older and all the information we have says that the older you are the more able you are to catch AND to spread this virus.

Matt: Why don’t sports leagues just relocate to countries that have very low cases of covid and just quarantine there?
Keith Law: Why would those countries take us? Imagine sending all MLB players, coaches, and staff – easily over 1000 people – to Uruguay. Why would Uruguay let us in, knowing that the odds are quite high that at least one person in the group would have the virus?

Guest: So I get the obvious reasons why the Redskins’ name has to go.  But does the logo?  If the Redskins were renamed the Lakota or the Comanche, would the name/logo combo still be racist?  Why?
Keith Law: Yes. And yes.

Nate: Do you think the short season could help Forrest Whitley finally get back on track again? Seems like it would help with his workload a lot, but who knows if he’s finally figured his mechanics  back out again?
Keith Law: Don’t think the short season matters. His mechanics were fine in the AFL.

AJ: Who was a better prospect as an amateur for you, Zac Veen or David Dahl? Are they similar prospects in any way other than LHH HS OF’s?
Keith Law: Veen, by a small margin. He’s got more raw power at the same age.

Lark11: Do you think Jesse Winker gets the majority of the DH ABs for the Reds? What do you think Winker’s offensive peak will be? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s nearly a .400 OBP guy vs RHP already in the majors. I think he’ll do well enough against lefties, given more experience, that he won’t have to be platooned. Even at 15 HR/year that’s a regular, and that ballpark may mean he gets well past that.

Greg: The NBA has a “bubble” set up that the players aren’t supposed* to leave, and even then players are worried. Baseball players… are just coming and going as they please? Who knows how many different people they’ll come into contact with? Realistically, there’s almost no way even this shortened season is completed, right?
Keith Law: As far as I can tell, it’s an honor system, assuming that players will behave outside of the ballpark, and there is no way I will believe that all of these men, some of whom are barely adults, will adhere strictly to basic safety procedures (like, say, avoiding bars).

Greg: Low on the list of concerns I know… but is this going to be the worst/best/most interesting Oscars year ever? Are they going to have to change the rules for movies released VOD? Does anyone really want to go back top movie theaters?
Keith Law: They have already changed the rules to allow movies that go right to VOD to compete – you no longer have to have a theatrical run. So I think Hamilton is now eligible. The bigger concern from an overall quality perspective is that many studios may just push movies into 2021 – like In the Heights, for example.

Amin: Hi Keith – Is it fair to read into Austin Beck’s omission from the list of 60 players as a sign of Oakland’s diminishing faith/frustration with his development? It seems rather odd that they wouldn’t invite a player that they picked 6th overall and gave $5 million to only 3 years ago even though his production has been underwhelming.
Keith Law: I see it that way, at least. Just get him reps and time working with your coaches in Stockton.

Rich M: How would you grade the Padres 2020 draft now that they signed Cole Wilcox?
Keith Law: I loved their draft from the start because I had no doubt they would sign Wilcox.

Jason: Are projected rookie starters like Lux and Kieboom on a much shorter leash with the abbreviated season?
Keith Law: I don’t know but it seems foolish. What’s a short leash in 60 games? A week? You can’t evaluate anyone off that.

Jason: Over/under on Gore’s innings in 2020?  Also, I saw the picture of Gore in your piece today and his leg kick is ridiculously high.  Do you expect that will be an issue for him in the majors?  Thanks and have a great holiday weekend.
Keith Law: He’s always had that leg kick and repeats it every time. No issue there. I am not making any guesses on innings/at bats at this point when we don’t even know who’s passing their entrance COVID-19 tests.

addoeh: The major European domestic soccer leagues have re-started and Germany has even completed their’s.  Leagues for various sports in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand have all re-started.  The NHL is probably going to complete it’s season in Toronto and Edmonton.  But the US can barely get to square one.  Pretty pathetic.
Scott: Any new book recommendations?
Keith Law: Yep. It surprises me that more patriotic Americans aren’t pissed off that other countries’ responses are so clearly superior to ours. We’re not #1. We are probably last. Shouldn’t that make you mad if you want to be proud of your country?
Keith Law: I just reviewed Being Wrong and would recommend it strongly, as I would Mindware, a review of which I was writing this morning. I am also 3/4 of the way through Ann Patchett’s The Dutch House, one of the finalists for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, and it’s excellent.

Rob: We’ve done a relatively decent job of containing covid here in Canada.  I love the Jays but don’t want any part of them playing regular season games here.  Am I off base?
Keith Law: I won’t blame anyone who opposes sports leagues trying to resume play, or doesn’t want them playing in their town/area.
Keith Law: There’s a good argument that this is all folly, that no league should be trying to play games in the US right now while the pandemic is still raging across the south and threatening to surge again in California and New York.

Matt: Honor system? Imagine how pissed off 10 year veterans with 9 figure bank accounts are gonna be when they find out some taxi squad scrub tested positive because he ate at Olive Garden and sang karaoke at the dive bar across the street.
Keith Law: The veteran can yell at them from six feet away.

Jason: Do you know whether the criteria for rookie eligibility will be lowered and/or prorated?
Keith Law: I have not heard anything about that – I don’t think they will, or should be, but it’s possible I missed it.

Jason: Will starting pitchers be at the park on game day?  Should they?  Wouldn’t it be much better to keep starters separate from the relievers and starting position players from everyone else.  I fear that they will do this all wrong.
Keith Law: If you’re not starting or otherwise unavailable on game day there’s no reason for you to be at the park this year. Again, I don’t know if that’s a policy.

Mike: i know boras is involved but shouldn’t signing Austin Martin be pretty straightforward?  Seems jays are often late in getting deals done…
Keith Law: Don’t think this is anything to do with the Jays. Martin was the best player in the class and went fifth. That’s going to make the negotiations a bit slower.
Keith Law: He should sign, though. He doesn’t really have leverage here – returning to school, with pandemic uncertainty, a strong likely class, and age working against him, is not a good alternative to whatever the Jays’ best offer is.

scrapper: do we know yet how many minor league teams will be gone permanently, starting in 2021?
Keith Law: I believe we’ll be down to 120 full-season teams, then some unknown number of GCL/AZL teams, plus a DSL that looks probably like it did last year.
Keith Law: So all short-season leagues between the complexes and low-A will be gone. Many of those franchises (Aberdeen, Brooklyn, the Northwest League) will move up to full-season leagues. But the number will be 120 plus the complex teams.

Scrapper: Do you Netflix?  Any preferred shows on that platform?
Keith Law: Of course. We just finished Sex Education (the two seasons so far); the acting in that show is incredible, but the writing falls short so often, turning way too much into a teen soap opera. Loved Russian Doll, Never Have I Ever, Big Mouth. Money Heist was very disappointing.

Joe: I got into a Twitter debate a while back with a baseball writer with a national platform who was making the argument that there is no difference between a vote for Trump and a vote for Biden. This is a relatively insane opinion, right?
Keith Law: It is an incorrect statement, probably given by someone unfamiliar with the current administration’s rollbacks of environmental protections or equal rights protections.

Paul: Is Hassell’s hit ability enough to take him above Veen?  Can he stay in center?
Keith Law: Yes to the hit tool, probably no to center.

Scrapper: How soon before we hear teams trying to stick 10-15k fans per game into their stadiums?
Keith Law: Wasn’t Texas already trying this?

Pat D.: If Mike Trout were to opt out, how many others do you think would follow, and would that effectively end the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think him opting out would lead to a big flood of defections. I think it’s more of a tipping point issue – if the trickle of opt-outs keeps going, the pace will accelerate, and eventually we’ll hit some percentage (20%? 30%) where the season becomes infeasible.

Matt: I know it’s not MLB,  but keep in mind the Super Bowl is scheduled in *checks notes* Tampa.
Keith Law: Imagine a Super Bowl without fans. Dead quiet for three hours of football. All because we couldn’t stand to shut the country down for two months.

Joules: Let’s say Ender’s hamstring explodes, could Pache do enough at the plate to be an everyday CF in 2021 assuming that season is ~normal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andy: Bettendorf, Iowa, is having a youth baseball tournament next weekend featuring over 100 teams from at least 4 different states. So the reason the Field of Dreams game is still on, is because Iowa is denial about anything being different.
Keith Law: As they have been since the start of this. Iowa, Nebraska, Arizona, Texas … weird, what do all those governors and legislatures have in common?
Keith Law: I think I just deleted a question by mistake – someone asked if I’d read The Ghost of King Leopold and, if they meant King Leopold’s Ghost, I have.

Taylor: Are you a fan of power metal? If so, i recommend a band called Unleash the Archers. The singer’s voice is gorgeous.
Keith Law: I am. I’ll check it out.

Steve: I’m curious, as an analytical person, how do you decide what political efforts (PACS, candidates, initiatives, etc) to support to get the most bang for your buck. I have limited resources, my local races are fairly set, so I’m looking at the KY, ME Senate races, for example.
Keith Law: Same. I keep the same approach as I do with charitable donations – I give where my buck likely gets the most bang. Food pantries are generally great for this.

Erik: Speaking of Big Mouth and other shows that are changing voice actors. Performative wokeness or actual good?
Keith Law: It absolutely bugged me that Missy, the one prominent black character on Big Mouth, was voiced by a white actor. (Duke Ellington is kind of a side gag.) Also, the show is long over, but my daughter watched Littlest Pet Shop, and the fact that a white person was voicing Sunil with a stereotypical Indian/south Asian accent was kind of appalling.

Doug: How do you think Mateo fits into the Padres plans this year? Still think he has star potential?
Keith Law: I’d probably stick him in CF – they don’t have a proper CF on the roster, right? – and see what happens. I don’t think there’s star potential there any more.

Adam: If Cole Wilcox was highly rated and apparently valued at his $3.3 mil asking price, why was he not selected in a more traditional slot to meet that price?
Keith Law: Perhaps not every team saw him at that price, and there’s certainly an opportunity cost to taking him there.

Guest: Of all, the bad ideas, wasn’t allowing bars to open in a pandemic one of the all time dumbest? With how people act when drunk, it was always clear bars would help cause a surge.
Keith Law: Yes. But the liquor industry has a lot of political power.

Jake: I’m also a huge footie fan and, watching the Premier League’s “Project Restart” is painful. No fans, fake crowd noise, and the intensity of a summer friendly (think spring training).

Is there anything that MLB can do to make these “baseball” games feel like Baseball?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m fine without fans. I’d be fine without broadcasters. I’d skip the fake crowd noise for sure.

Kevin: I think the Padres plan on Grisham in center.
Keith Law: He’s not a CF.

Mike: I think I’ve suggested this before, but you should give the books of Guy Kay Gavriel a shot……a great writer.
Keith Law: Sean Doolittle recommended Sailing to Sarantium and it’s on my Kindle right now.
Keith Law: I’m reading Say Nothing next, though. I got that from my local library – they’re doing curbside pickup now.

Adam: Do you prefer Jarred Kelley for $3mil or Cole Wilcox for $3.3mil?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 100 prospects for this year’s draft class right before the draft itself.

Patrick: How do I square my malignant life-long love of the Cubs with my complete disrespect for Pete Ricketts? Can I support a team when one of the owners is willing to allow people to die?
Keith Law: You could watch them, and root for them, but decline to spend money on them in the form of tickets or merchandise.

JT: Are some prospects losing their shots this year?

Can players still develop in workouts, or is this just too hard?
Keith Law: That was the subject of my column last week … short answer is yes, some will lose their shots, and some will still be able to develop at home, but the only players who might be better off not playing than playing are pitchers who might have pitched this year at less than 100% and get more recovery time.

Rick: Thank you for the enormous amount of work that you put into draft coverage.  I am just curious..  do you get emails from agents or parents of prospects?  I hope that they are civil in nature.
Keith Law: Occasionally. I try not to engage with parents who are anything but civil, because there is no gain for anyone in arguing with a parent that their kid isn’t as good as they think he is. It’s pointless and mean. Agents are another story, as interacting with them is generally part of my job, and most of them can still be civil even when we disagree because they understand that this is just business.

JD: You get to rename the Redskins.  What’s their new name?
Keith Law: I like the suggestion that they use the Grays for its historical significance (that’s the most prominent Negro Leagues team to play in DC), but it’s not the most inspiring name beyond that. I don’t have a better suggestion, though.

KRod: When do you move Vladdy over to 1st?  is that even the best move?
Keith Law: Now. Or right to DH. He’s not going to be very good at first, given his size and conditioning.

Chris: What 60 man pool interests you the most?
Keith Law: I highlighted quite a few teams that stuffed their 60-man rosters with prospects – the Padres were one, the White Sox another. If I could go to watch the Yankees satellite camp (no media or scouts allowed, alas) I’d be there a bunch.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for your questions, as always. Please be safe this holiday weekend, on the roads and out and about. Wear your masks, avoid enclosed spaces, stay out of bars, wash your hands. The last thing the country or MLB needs is a big surge in cases after this weekend because people got pandemic fatigue and stopped taking basic precautions. Stay safe everyone.

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→ July 2, 2020
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Music update, June 2020.

June started out very slow for new music but finished with a bang, enough that I ended up culling some songs before posting this playlist, which runs the gamut of genres and features a couple of tracks from some of the best albums of the year so far. As always, if you can’t see the widget below you can access the playlist here.

Khruangbin – Pelota. The Thai funk/jazz/rock trio’s third album, Mordechai, is among the year’s best new records, and it’s their first with significant vocals, which should allow them to make real inroads on the commercial side. I’ll do a list of my favorite albums of the first half of 2020 shortly, but Mordechai is on it.

Doves – Carousels. Doves have reunited and released their first new music since 2009’s Kingdom of Rust. The time off has done them some good, as this sounds like peak Doves around the time of The Last Broadcast.

Bananagun – The Master. This weird Australian funk/alternative group sound a bit like someone smashed together folk rock sensibilities with late ’70s funk-rock or early ’80s new wave on their debut album The True Story of Bananagun. It’s very strange, but it works quite well even at different speeds.

Sad13 – Sooo Bad. Sadie Dupuis of Speedy Ortiz is set to release her second solo album as Sad13, with three new singles in the last few weeks, headlined by this track. All three songs are poppier than Speedy Ortiz’s music, but still have her offbeat lyrics and signature use of unexpected transitions.

Frank Turner – Bob. Turner and NOFX recorded covers of five of the other’s songs; I’m not a NOFX guy (although their desire to offend is admirable in a quirky way), but this reworking of a snotty track from their debut album into an acoustic ballad that sounds like Turner could have written it himself is impressive.

The Lazy Eyes – Tangerine. This Sydney quartet just released their first EP, cleverly titled EP1, showcasing a psychedelic rock sound that appears to owe a small debt to their countrymate Tame Impala.

Glass Animals – Heat Waves. I tend to like Glass Animals more when they’re a bit restrained, which they are here, as opposed to songs where it feels like they’re trying to be strange or eccentric.

Arlo Parks – Black Dog. Not a Led Zeppelin cover, as it turns out, although Parks did record an acoustic cover of Radiohead’s “Creep” as the B-side to this love song to a partner (or friend?) suffering from the black dog of depression.

Shamir – On My Own. If you know Shamir, it might be from his 2014 song “On the Regular,” which featured him rapping at a pitch that convinced a lot of people – me included – that the vocalist was a woman. He’s honed his sound in the intervening years to create an expansive mash-up that spans indie rock to classic soul to house and beyond, but I’ve been waiting for years for him to write another great hook. This song has it, along with a mid-80s Prince vibe to the music.

Tricky – Fall Please. Adrian Thaws is still at it at age 52, and still capable of producing a banger like this one, which features vocals from Polish singer Marta Z?akowska. It’s just short (2:27) for a song with such a great groove.

Freddie Gibbs & the Alchemist – Look at Me. Gibbs is probably the best MC working today, and continues to challenge himself musically, although I have a hard time buying in fully given how he speaks about women in his lyrics.

Dirty Streets – Can’t Go Back. Bluesy hard rock from a fairly new Memphis trio whose music I first heard while watching Netflix’s Sex Education. This is one of three tracks from their upcoming fifth album Rough and Tumble.

Muzz – Knuckleduster. Muzz is Paul Banks of Interpol, Matt Barrick of the Walkmen, and producer Josh Kaufman; they released their self-titled debut album in early June. It’s a mixed bag, often too lugubrious, but generally lush and often harking back to early shoegaze with more pronounced vocals.

Coach Party – Bleach. A new indie rock quartet from the Isle of Wight, with this song reminding me a bit of their labelmates Wolf Alice (at least from the latter’s first album).

The Beths – Out of Sight. This New Zealand indie group made a small splash in 2018 with their album Future Me Hates Me, with “You Wouldn’t Like Me” appearing on my top 100 for that year; their second album, Jump Rope Gazers, drops on July 10th.

Everything Everything – Planets. E2 will release RE-ANIMATOR, their fifth album, on August 21st; given the first three singles it seems like it might be their weirdest record yet.

Hinds – Take Me Back. I was into this all-female quartet’s earlier work but sort of assumed they’d get more proficient as musicians over time, so the charm of their first two records has started to wear off a bit now that it’s clear that there isn’t another level coming.

Medium – Life After Death. This isn’t the ’90s Minneapolis band Medium, but a project from musician Cotter Phinney, a big Ariel Pink fan who also professes to be into classic metal solos, with the former more evident on this track.

Protomartyr – Michigan Hammers. If there was a moment in some alternate universe when post-punk started to morph into metal – instead of the two strains descending from different ancestors – the result would have probably sounded a lot like Protomartyr.

Mekong Delta – Mental Entropy. I had no idea Mekong Delta, a minor band from the halcyon days of German thrash metal, even still existed, but they sound like they’re still recording in 1989 and I’m here for it.

Ensiferum – Andromeda. This Finnish folk/death metal act show off some great technical guitar work and strong melodic riffs, but the accessibility of their music varies from song to song – “Rum, Women, and Victory,” their previous single, was way more on the death metal side of things, while this has just a little of that and is more traditional metal, which is still my preference.

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