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Klawchat 3/4/22.

Subscribers to the Athletic can see my top 100 prospects ranking, ranking of all 30 farm systems, and top 20 prospects for every organization. I also have a new game review, the tableau-building game Subastral, over at Paste.

Keith Law: That’s right, here’s where the talkin’ ends. Klawchat.

TomBruno23: Moreno, Castellini, Kendrick, Illitch are quite a Mt. Rushmore
Keith Law: Yep. Kendrick and his wife are among the biggest donors to right-wing dark-money groups, along with Charles Koch and the Uihleins (boycott U-Line, folks). And we know where Moreno’s loyalties lie. It’s some of the strongest anti-labor voices in the country.

Dave F: Hi Keith. Can you explain again your resistance to a salary cap if MLB also had a salary floor? With the lucrative regional tv deals of bigger markets, it seems like they are able to buy out their mistakes and take on salary for a playoff push. I would think a salary floor would still get the Union what they want with higher wages and also level the playing field for teams, similar to the other major sports.
Keith Law: The cap does more to limit player incomes than the floor does to help it – and a floor doesn’t guarantee higher wages, either. Teams could easily reach the floor with one or two bloated deals for veterans. You want to raise wages? Make the minimum salary $1.5 million. Then the floor is automatically $39 million.

Dr. Bob: Greetings, Keith. Moneyball’s Michael Lewis tried to paint the analytics revolution as replacing traditional scouting. You have opposed that position and credited the work of scouts. So, here’s my question: Have the methods employed by scouts changed? If so, can you speak as to how?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Lewis was wrong – what analytics has done is changed the way teams evaluate players, including by empowering scouts to look at players in new ways while also helping streamline the process of figuring out who best to go see and when. Most scouts I know talk comfortably in the language of the analytics era, discussing spin rates and extension as much as they talk about feel and pitchability.

JT: I abandoned hockey once upon a time after it lost a season to a strike. I can’t even remember: 2003-4 or 2004-05. I only watched out of habit, an easy thing to fall into in Canada, esp. when you grew up with 3 channels and 2 were hockey some nights.

Does MLB not have any sense that it might lose similar casual fans?
Keith Law: No. I said on a radio hit in Jacksonville this morning (the Drill was the show) that MLB might be banking on the fact that live sports is one of the most coveted places for advertisers now, since people stream so much more content than they watch live. That could be driving the false confidence.

Ken (Cleveland): I know your more player than owner (understandably so for a multitude of reasons).  I’m curious, is there any specific position that you support the owners’ perspective of over the players?
Keith Law: In this current round, not that I’m aware of. They’re so focused on breaking the union that their policies seem aggressively geared to that end. Labor should earn its marginal revenue product. MLB doesn’t want to be subject to this general economic “law.”

Jim: Hey, Keith, hope you’re feeling better.  In the absence of anything constructive coming out of MLB, re you going to continue your “Keith answers x questions about Team Y’s farm system” interviews, or are they an ad hoc exercise?  Thanks as always.
Keith Law: I just did one for the Blue Jays today and will do one for the Angels in the next few days (Sam just sent the questions).

Kip: Thanks for all the great content over the last few weeks.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Thank you all for reading and subscribing. Links to all the prospect content are up top.

Francisco: Hi Keith, Thanks for chatting. I would like to know your thoughts on Tommy White. Thanks !
Keith Law: Let’s see what happens in conference play. He wouldn’t be the first guy to go off against non-conference pitching and then come down to earth when the better pitching shows up.

JBisson: Hi, Keith. Thanks again for taking time out of your day to chat with us die-hards! I realize it might be difficult to narrow this down to one, but if you can, which player on your top 100 prospects lists do you believe has the widest range of potential outcomes?
Keith Law: I don’t think I could answer that off the cuff – I’d have to give it a lot of time and thought. Might be fodder for a future column or something.

Brutus Beefcake: Would you mind explaining why you didn’t vote for Billy Wagner for the HoF?  I don’t mean to suggest you needed to or should have–he seems very borderline–just that in your HoF column I didn’t see his name come up, and I was curious.
Keith Law: Not even close. He pitched less than anyone in the Hall of Fame – I don’t think there’s a HoF pitcher under 1000 innings, and he barely cracked 900.

Tony: I don’t know if you’ve gotten into the latest Alt-J album at all, but I found parts of it quite good while other parts sounded like the band was parodying itself. This isn’t a question, I guess, but I’ll hang up and listen, regardless.
Keith Law: I’m just out on them at this point. I agree with you that they’ve descended into a sort of parody of their earlier selves. They’ve certainly become less ambitious musically and lyrically, and seem more geared towards the commercial than ever before. It’s a shame; An Awesome Wave remains one of the most interesting and inventive albums I’ve ever heard.

Evan: Favorite restaurants in New Orleans
Keith Law: god, it’s been so long since I was there. I’m sure the best destinations have turned over a ton since then. I think the last time through I went to Cochon and/or Cochon Butcher, which were great.

Adam D.: Any under-the-radar college prospects on the west coast we should know about? I follow San Diego State and Cal pretty closely, but wondering who else I should be keeping an eye on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think it’s too early to say. I’ll have a draft ranking up next week, hoping midweek after I make a quick trip to GA.

Condor: Chris Russo has been, not surprisingly, pro-clubs and pro-Manfred. He works for MLB and golfs with Manfred. Plus, if you differ from him, he yells over you.
Keith Law: Look at the voices who support owners right now and see who might pay some of their bills. A lot of them have ties to MLB (via TV or radio), or to individual clubs. Not all, certainly, but many do.

Gil: In your time w the Blue Jays were there ever any specific moves based solely on saving the owner money?
Keith Law: I mean, we traded Raul Mondesi just to get rid of his contract. I don’t think that’s that bad or unusual, though.

Steve F: Point of order: 2004-05 in the NHL was a lockout not a strike, and the owners locked the players out again in 2013.
Keith Law: Important distinction. Thank you.

Dr. Bob: Thanks. Follow up, please. Did most scouts at the time (1) resist the new ways and fade away, (2) slowly get on board, (3) quickly adapt to the changes?
Keith Law: I would be reluctant to make generalizations like that. I couldn’t possibly know enough people to give a fair and accurate answer.

Dave: Could a whole bunch of problems or “problems” (pace of play, lack of baserunners, pitching to strikeouts) be solved by changing walks to 3 balls? I’m sure there would be initial growing pains but it seems like a quick way to increase offense without weird shit like moving the mound back.
Keith Law: Eek. No thank you.

David: Hi Keith, When evaluating prospects for the Top 100 list, do you consider a person’s character as much as it can be known? For example, I know you’ve been a critical of the Pirates’ Ji-hwan Bae (and rightfully so). Would you exclude someone from your list if they had a history like his? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bae was on my Pirates list a year ago, with the note about his assault on his girlfriend. He wasn’t on it this year because I just don’t think he’s that good a player – beyond any considerations about whether he should be employed by the team.

Zac: The Jackson Jobe pick is a huge risk as you’ve pointed out, but what is his ceiling in compared to the Tigers other pitching “prospects” (Mize, Skubal, Manning)?
Keith Law: As high a ceiling as any of those guys, with the higher risk of zero return as well.

Sage: Thoughts on recent Jack McDowell interview about current state of MLB?
Keith Law: Didn’t hear it. Not sure I need to?

Anthony: I know its REALLY early as neither are draft eligible this year but do you have any thoughts on Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander and UCLA RHP Thatcher Hurd?
Keith Law: I almost never spend time looking into players who aren’t eligible. The audience for that information is close to nonexistent and it doesn’t support my draft coverage.

Jace: Is there any scenario where we get away from the performative dip-shittery that we saw at the SOTU, on Twitter, talk shows, etc or is this just who we are now?
Keith Law: I think this is who we are now. Those people do that stuff because it works. If you want a behavior to stop, don’t reinforce it with attention.

Nick: I know the MiLB players are not part of the union, but will the lockout impact the minor league season?
Keith Law: It shouldn’t. About 14 players will be missing from every system, because they’re on the 40 man and thus are locked out, but everyone else can play. MLB teams will have to decide what to do – do they sign some extra indy ball types or other older FAs to fill AAA rosters, or promote players in the system and backfill in low A with guys who’d be in extended or some undrafted college seniors from 2021?

Mike: Why you gotta rank everything and make lists ?  What put things in box?
Keith Law: Gotta give the people what they want!

Jace: Austin Eats beyond Franklin BBQ? Qui is closed
Keith Law: I have to look up one place, stand by…
Keith Law: Better Half! I always forget its name. Loved that place. Backspace pizza was solid. People rave about Interstellar BBQ; I haven’t been, and Texas Q is tough for me since i stopped eating cow about five years ago.

Insert Witty Name Here: Keith, been reading you since time immemorial. You were always open with mental health and your struggles with it. Two parter: 1) How have you been doing? 2) Do you think the national conversation regarding mental health is doing a good job communicating and educating on causes and conditions of mental health?
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’m doing well, I think. I’m in therapy regularly, and I at least know what I need to work on, and what I need to do to take care of myself. I’m exercising again, as the weather allows, which will only get easier going forward (we belong to a gym, but I will take running outside over the treadmill any day now that I’ve gotten accustomed to it). Any conversation about mental health is a good conversation, but there’s still too little understanding and way too many opinions from people who don’t have the background or knowledge to insert themselves into that conversation.

Guest: Would there be a different attitude among the owners if the owners had to answer any specific labor issues to the media themselves instead of having the commissioner do it?
Keith Law: Probably. Also, we assume the owners are monolithic. I guarantee you there are at least two or three saying, “just strike a deal, we don’t care, we’re making plenty of money even if we take the players’ last offer!” But we don’t hear that – we hear one voice.

Romorr: I think it’s funny when Oriole fans harp on rankings. I looked at your list and came away thinking, I need to pay more attention to Joey Ortiz. Same with Gillaspie.
Keith Law: I think it’s funny too. When someone accuses a national writer of bias against a team, they’re telling on themselves, not the writer.

Deeeedeeee: What new films are you looking forward to this year?
Keith Law: I have to admit i don’t track what’s coming, unless I happen to catch a trailer. We’re still catching up on 2021 – we have four BP nominees left to see, and all five international nominees as well.

chauncey: thoughts on the lockout?
Keith Law: I mean, could you narrow it down a bit?

JT: I don’t only subscribe to the Athletic for you, but I definitely value having access to your writing a whole lot. Keep passing this along to your editors.
Keith Law: Thank you! I wouldn’t expect anyone to subscribe just for me, or if they did, they’d probably realize we have a lot of great writers.

Phil: Is it fair for Lia Thomas to compete in Ivy League women’s swimming?
Keith Law: Yes. She’s a woman.

Nick X: Have you ever listed to a musical artist who was on Top-40 radio?
Keith Law: Is top 40 radio still a thing? Anyway, yes, of course. I grew up listening to top 40 radio – literally, in the case of America’s Top 40.

TacoCharlton: hattie b’s or princes for Nashville hot chicken ?
Keith Law: I tried Hattie B’s for the first time last year and really liked it, but I also think my limitations in that department are pretty clear. I was not made to eat really spicy foods.
Keith Law: Like, I think chili particles show up in my sweat after I eat it.

addoeh: Still out on Top Chef?  New season started last night.
Keith Law: Well, after they glossed over an alleged sexual harasser winning last season, I haven’t felt the call to return to watching. Are they hawking NFTs now too?

TacoCharlton: What are your go-to sides at bbq place ? Get pecan pie ?
Keith Law: Fried okra, if they have it.

Paul: Random question but are you loyal to a specific airline and hotel chain in order to increase your status/upgrades with a particular company? Or do your employers just book you on whatever flight they can.
Keith Law: I am, not for status purposes but to collect points for personal travel.

Anthony: I kind of struggle with believing in Chase DeLauter but given his ranking I seem to be in the minority. Does him not facing top competition on a regular basis make his evaluation tougher? When he actually did play a team with a solid amount of talent he did not do well.
Keith Law: Florida State’s two main lefties depantsed him – and word got around. He’s going to go in the first round, I think, but people are aware of the very issue you raise.

bobby: You’re need to lift heavy waits broseph.
Keith Law: This has to be a joke.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: I know you’ve discussed this elsewhere, but lost track between your chats, articles, and tweets:  where do you stand on the three proposed rule changes for a pitch clock, larger bases, and no shifts?
Keith Law: Pitch clock is a double-edged sword – it may increase some pitcher injuries. Banning the shift is stupid. I have no opinion on the bases.

Matt: You may have addressed this before, but with Sal Perez under contract for 4 more years, could you see the Royals breaking MJ Melendez in in some sort of hybrid role where he’s the backup catcher and plays somewhere else in the field other days? I know these things tend to work themselves out, but Melendez is essentially knocking on the door at this point and Sal’s not going anywhere!
Keith Law: I did, in fact, address it right here in my Q&A with our own Alec Lewis.

mss: Your’re telling me you don’t eat Italian Sausage !?!!
Keith Law: I do if it’s pork, which it should be.

stixx23: Do you think we will see a woman play in the major leagues in our lifetime (say, next 30-40 years)?
Keith Law: I’d give you about even money odds on that. She’ll face discrimination at every possible step, though.

Paul: Given everything going on – would it make sense for Biden to come out today and announce another massive infrastructure/energy bill? One that in the short term, yes increases the amount of drilling for fossil fuels, but longer term projects of nuclear plants in WV, wind farms in the midwest and solar farms in the southwest? Surely if there is ever a chance for us to break free from our dependence on autocratic petrostates this would be our last best chance?
Keith Law: Agreed. It could even force some Big Oil advocates in Congress to take a stand on the issue – would they turn down a short-term investment in our petroleum industry to score a political point?

Dave: Any sense of how teams are planning to handle April for prospects on the cusp of the bigs, but not on the 40-man? Thinking of Greene and Tork with the Tigers specifically, but I think Julio Rodriguez fits that bill too. Start them at AAA? Keep them around for big league camp?
Keith Law: There is no big league camp, right? So they’ll go play in AAA. Not the perfect outcome but a good enough one.

TomBruno23: We have discussed him before in the chat, especially in regards to graduating HS early and enrolling at Vandy…what is going on with Christian Little pitching in middle relief this season?
Keith Law: Is he just another kid who enrolled in college early only to end up worse off? Nate Savino looked like he’d be one of those guys, but he’s had two good starts in non-conference play for UVA.

Mike: Have you read any of Erik Larson’s books? They seem up your alley.  Also just finished A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles that had a very “Confederacy of Dunces” vibe.
Keith Law: I have not; I read part of Devil in the White City and his emphasis on the lurid aspects of the HH Holmes half of the story really turned me off. I have zero interest in that.

TomBruno23: What can I, as a schmuck living in St. Louis County, Missouri, do to help the Ukrainians? Donate to organizations and, if so, which ones?
Keith Law: I gave to World Central Kitchen, Jose Andres’ nonprofit.

Omead: Will Jeren Kendall ever figure it out?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it.

JT: There’s no hope left for the GOP now. How does America play out over the next decade? How far from democracy will your country descend?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s a bottom. We are headed towards a theocracy, in a country that is becoming more secular all the time.

Tim: One of the players’ main grievances is that some teams are not trying hard enough to compete. In that vein, aren’t deadline trades problematic? How is it good for competition when bad teams send good players to good teams for the last two months of the season, leading to greater competitive disparity? Max Scherzer hates “tanking,” but he was happy to abandon the listing Nats for the already loaded Dodgers. It seems hypocritical.
Keith Law: I don’t see this parallel at all, sorry.

Guest: Is this the hardest year to rank prospects given how atypical the development path has been for so many in the last two years? e.g. Ed Howard might suck or might just have a huge learning curve due to time off
Keith Law: Last winter was harder, with almost no new information available on players. At least this past cycle, we could discuss 2021 performance and scouting reports, with the caveat that the lost 2020 season affected different players in different ways. I would counsel all fans to be more open-minded on players who struggled in 2021 than they might have in previous years.

Aaron G: Please, won’t you think of the owners? You’re such a shill for the players, some of whom might even play in the majors for a few years at minimum salary!
Keith Law: There’s a weird group of Twitter accounts who love to run around calling anyone who advocates for the players’ positions a “Boras shill” or something similar. It seems artificial – like someone spoonfed them that phrase.

Nels: Am i wrong to be a little annoyed at some of the reporting that went on in Florida last week? There was a lot of over-dramatization of people walking across parking lots and at the end of the day the reporting was filtered through PR anyways. Not sure I saw the point of a lot of it.
Keith Law: It ended up much ado about nothing but I assume there was value in having people on the ground there in case the two sides had struck a deal.

Anthony: I know injuries to pitchers definitely vary player to player but given how some college teams really overwork their pitchers, is it fair to be wary of said teams in terms of projecting their starters for overuse? (UCLA comes to mind as relatively recent starters like James Kaprielian and Griffin Canning have definitely struggled with health)
Keith Law: I know teams consider this. There were several Rice pitchers who were drafted later than they might have been from other schools because the whole industry knew that, under Graham, Rice pitchers got hurt a ton.

Nick X: My buddy Joe F. once got schooled by you on Twitter in a Pete Rose debate.  We were roasting him about it recently and he claims he won because MLB promotes gambling now.  We already made fun of that point but would you care to roast him one last time? We’d truly appreciate it
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure MLB doesn’t promote its own players gambling. That’s kind of the key difference, no?

Jasper: Ever had overnight oats ?
Keith Law: I just can’t get into them. I have tried it, but despite the fact that I like almost anything with oats in it (okay, perhaps not haggis), I find oatmeal pretty boring. It needs way more salt than most people put in it – it’s a grain, like rice, not a ‘cereal’ like Lucky Charms.

TomBruno23: My lovely state of MO is considering a bill that will finally legalize sports gambling but only in casinos and inside pro sports stadiums. Cannot make this shit up.
Keith Law: Sure. Follow the money and see who funded those legislators.

John: You’ve often referred in passing to your belief that a drafted HS player should go ahead and sign, rather than going to college. I apologize if you’ve done this and I missed it, but can you elaborate? I suspect part of your opinion is based on MLB’s scholarship for players after they stop playing. But considering that scholarship is taxable income (still valuable, but effectively not a full scholarship), is there a certain level in the later rounds of the draft where the player should consider going to college instead?
Keith Law: It’s a generalization, but yes, the scholarship plan is a big part of it, as is the need to capitalize right now in case your value as a player is peaking. The blanket assumption that all players will be better at 21 than they were at 18 is not accurate. Guys get hurt. Guys plateau, or regress. Guys get out of shape. They flunk out of school, or get in trouble. Sometimes you peak at 18. I’m not a Bruce Springsteen fan but isn’t that the whole point of that insipid song?

Sage: Any interest in coming to Chicago’s pizza fest?  
https://chicagopizzafestival.com/
Keith Law: Are they serving actual pizza, or just the thing they call “pizza” in chicago?

Daniel: Does Will Smith or Diego Cartaya have the versatility to play a different position? Seems that will have to come up soon
Keith Law: Cross that bridge when you get there – which I think is at least two years away.

TomBruno23: What are your thoughts, if any (I guess some if you post this Q) about Jeter leaving the Marlins?
Keith Law: I really don’t know what the cause was, which leaves me feeling like there’s little I can say of value here. I did point out that Jeter brought Gary Denbo and some other people over from the Yankees, and I don’t know if their job status was tied to him at all.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the guys who might really benefit from the lockout are guys who were probably going to be called up this year but aren’t yet on the 40-man roster. They’ll get a normal ST and then play in AAA to show how they’re advancing. Then when play starts, they’ll be ready.
Keith Law: Quite possible, and then maybe they get a full year of service out of the shortened season?

Matt: Honest question, not intended to be confrontational. Is there any political issue that you lean right (or even moderate) on? You seem to take a very left, progressive position on every issue I’ve seen discussed.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate at all; I take pro-science, evidence-based positions. I believe in the separation of church and state, as the Establishment Clause of our Constitution guarantees. I believe that tax policies should be guided by evidence on what is likely to do the most economic good, and that using the tax code to guide behaviors is, at least, not always good policy, and often amounts to paternalism. (A tobacco tax to fund health care may make economic sense; a tobacco tax to deter people from smoking may not, and do I really care if you smoke yourself to death as long as I’m not trying to eat over here?) I think your inaccurate impression is a framing problem: When the “right” is this far from the center, rational, evidence-based ideas may seem “left.”

David: For the reader who asked about New Orleans food, I can vouch for Cochon. I still remember the ribs, pickled watermelon and iced tea that I got there.
Keith Law: Glad to hear they’re still going.

Mike P: Isn’t it sad that we consider things like acknowledging the threat of climate change, making it easier rather than harder for people to vote and allowing women to control their own reproductive rights to be “liberal” or “progressive,” and not mainstream?
Keith Law: Or accepting what scientists have known for a half a century, that gender and biological sex are not binary? Or that vaccines are safe and effective, which is backed by a hundred years of evidence?

Brian: We’ve officially hit the point where Tucker Carlson is demanding to see the LSAT’s of the first ever African-American female Supreme Court nominee (which even potting aside the obvious and not subtle racism is stupid for about 10000 different reasons) because he can’t possibly believe a black woman would be smart. But hey teaching CRT is still clearly the biggest issue in this country (eye roll)
Keith Law: I think 90% of the CRT “debate” was astroturfed bullshit designed to rally the right’s base, but there’s 10% “we don’t want to teach kids how bad our history is” so they don’t realize how racist that Carlson thing was.

stixx23: Following up on my Q about the first female player. Any thoughts on a more likely position? Reliever seems the easiest path (don’t have to hit usually and could be a specialist – lefty, knuckler, etc.) especially since it would take an exceptional talent to overcome the “horror” of a “girl” replacing a position player on the roster.
Keith Law: Pitcher. Not sure whether the role matters necessarily and they’d never have to it. Why couldn’t a woman develop the arm strength to throw 90-92 and get high spin rates on a breaking ball?

Insert Witty Name Here: no question I just find this funny: this guy at work agrees with every single principle that Bernie says, but still claims he’s a conservative.
Keith Law: That is funny.

Nick: Do you enjoy Brandywine coffee from Wilmington? They have it at my local shop in Detroit, and I find it to be quite delicious..
Keith Law: They sell it in Detroit? Crazy. We can walk to one of their shops (Brew Ha-ha) and I think as local coffee shops go they’re solid. I do prefer the coffee from Re-Animator in Philly, as my nearby options go, though.

Paul: To respond to the earlier question about leaning right – eliminating tariffs (lower manufacturing costs) and having looser immigration policies (lower labor costs) have, from my understanding, been at least right wing from an economic perspective. (I may be wrong that those are two positions of yours, but I thought I read a previous chat where you were in support of eliminating tariffs.)                                  With today’s republican party though – who the f- knows.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’ve always advocated for open immigration. Most economists will tell you tariffs are bad. I’d certainly oppose federal or state wage/price controls. I don’t agree with the idea of government ownership of industry, which is, you know, what actual socialism is. (Ask anyone who throws that word around as a pejorative to define it. Fun will ensue.)

Mike P: Knowing how strongly you feel about climate change and fossil fuels’ unmistakeable contribution to it, I’m surprised that you are OK with even a short-term nod to that industry on more investment. Don’t mean to be rude or antagonistic, just a bit confused.
Keith Law: I’m a pragmatist. And if we do nothing, and then the GOP takes over again in 2024, the long-term damage to the planet may be irreversible. If passing an energy bill like that now creates some positive change, while also decreasing the changes of a right-wing autocracy coming, so much the better.

Jay’s friend: Does Jay Allen have 30/30 .300/.400 CF potential? Possible top 20 end of year? What could stop him from reaching his ceiling?
Keith Law: I’ll send you to my Reds top 20 for the answer to that. What could stop him = what could stop 95% of HS position player prospects: We have to see how he hits decent pro pitching.

Greg: If Jeter had played a different position (more adequately than SS I mean), would he have been a surefire Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: If he’d been an average defender at third base for 20 years? Probably.
Keith Law: Might actually improve his statistical case, at least.

Insert Witty Name Here: Any thoughts on the possibility that analytics are the root cause of the current labor strife? I know owners always repressed salaries, but once the really smart people got into the FO, the shift of player salaries for really skewed.  So basically this is all your fault? /s
Keith Law: I don’t buy that argument at all. The owners were always going to find a way to win more while paying players less. Analytics were just another tool. If it wasn’t that, it would have been something else.

Clay, Rutherford: What can MLB do differently to expand the game to Europe and develop more quality players? A handful of their teenagers get signed every year, though most are released before they even graduate from the complex leagues. I know Mike Piazza manages the Italian National Team; more involvement from MLB veterans seems like a good place to start.
Keith Law: I joked on Twitter a week ago that MLB players who are locked out should go play overseas to stay ready while also growing the game. Imagine if Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius went to play in the Honkbal Hoofdklasse for a month – crowds would swell, it’d be front-page news, and even though everyone would know they were leaving in a few weeks, it would help expose the sport more in that country. (Gregorius was born there, and Bogaerts is a Dutch citizen as an Aruba native.) There are smaller leagues all over the world, some of which only play in the MLB offseason, but many of which play now. Send a few to Italy, a few to Germany, a few to Czechia, a few to China, and so on. It’d be a bit of a goodwill tour. I know the counterarguments – if a player gets hurt, then what happens – but from a top-down perspective, I think it would do so much good for the sport.
Keith Law: That’s all for today. Thank you all again for reading. I’ll have my first MLB draft content for 2022 up next week – I hope a top 30 ranking plus some notes on Jones and Johnson, if the weather is more favorable this time around. In the meantime, you can see all of my pro prospect rankings content here, on this handy index page. Stay safe everyone.

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Escape from Mogadishu.

The South Korean film industry has produced some remarkable, world-class films in the last few years, highlighted by Parasite, of course, but with Burning, The Handmaiden, Train to Busan, and more all earning critical acclaim and often significant followings outside of the Korean-speaking audience. So even when South Korea’s submission to the Academy Awards doesn’t make the shortlist, I try to catch it if possible, as I did with this year’s Escape from Mogadishu, a very strong, exciting action film based on the true story of how diplomats from South and North Korea worked together to escape Somalia when the country collapsed in 1991. (You can rent it on Amazon, iTunes, and Google Play.)

The film opens with scenes of intrigue, as the South Korean delegation to Somalia tries to curry favor with the African country’s longtime dictator, Sian Barre, against a similar effort by the North Korean diplomats as both nations fought for UN recognition. This early bickering and gamesmanship quickly becomes trivial as Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, falls to rebels, turning the city into a war zone as competing rebel factions fought each other and the remnants of the Somali national army, a civil war that engulfed the country and still has not entirely abated thirty years later. The two Korean missions were both stranded without transportation out of the country or ways to communicate with their parent countries, and the two groups decide to mount a daring escape together to get to the Italian embassy, as the Italians have promised them space on a cargo plane out to Kenya that will allow them to get home.  (You can read one of the diplomats’ recollections of the escape and his criticism of the movie in this English-language article.)

Escape from Mogadishu bounces around between genres in the first third or so of the movie, with some outright comedy, inept spycraft, and a general air of disdain for the scheming of the Cold War era, which makes it more incongruous when the movie follows actual events and becomes a straight-up action film – although this may be a deliberate choice to try to recreate the feeling of shock the diplomats, staffers, and family members must have had when the country fell apart around them. The last two-thirds of the movie are an intense, often relentless rush of movement and peril, punctuated by moments of humanity that arise between the two sides. There’s never the over-the-top recognition that you might expect in an American-made movie, where someone says ‘why can’t we all just get along’ or ‘we’re all the same’ or some other cliché, but the point here is quite clear, and only further underscores the human tragedy when the two groups can’t even acknowledge each other on the runway in Nairobi for fear of getting the North Koreans killed.

It’s an ensemble film and very much a group performance, but there are three more or less central characters, including the North Korean ambassador to Somalia (Heo Joon-ho), the South Korean ambassador (Kim Yoon-seok), and the South Korean intelligence officer (Jo In-sung), the last of whom is younger and far more dapper than the two ambassadors. Heo has earned wide praise for his performance as the strict North Korean leader, dressed in officer’s clothing with a taut military bearing, but who is also the leader of his group, and thus when he softens his attitude towards the South Koreans, his comrades are willing to do the same. Jo is the more memorable character, and gets some of the film’s funnier moments in the first third, but I can see the plaudits for Heo given the tighter reins around the character’s display of emotions. It all looks incredible – the re-creation of the city and the subsequent destruction of it as the civil war hits its streets is remarkable, and the filming of the final action sequence, with the two delegations packed into four cars trying to navigate the streets to get to the Italian consulate, is white-knuckles stuff all the way. I’m not shocked it didn’t make the shortlist for the Oscars, since it feels so much more like a big-budget, popular movie than the sort of film that usually makes the cut, but it’s a well-made film that executes its action scenes well, a sort of On Wings of Eagles or Argo for an even less well-known escape.

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→ March 3, 2022
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Red Rocket.

The idea of the con man as amiable rascal goes back decades, at least, but the archetype has been overtaken by current events, not least from our four years with a con man in the White House. In Sean Baker’s latest film, the hilarious dark comedy Red Rocket, Baker plays with the format by giving us a charming, fast-talking con man as the lead character, making it clear in stages that he’s a self-aggrandizing loser who does not care whose lives he destroys as long as none of them is his own. (You can rent it on Amazon, iTunes, or Google Play.)

Baker’s previous film, The Florida Project was my favorite film of 2017, anchored by an incredible performance by a 6-year-old actress, Brooklynn Prince, with no previous acting credits. Red Rocket is almost as good, and once again he’s cast two unconventional actors as leads: former MTV VJ and unserious actor Simon Rex, and an unknown actor named Suzanna Son, who had just one minor movie credit before this one.

Rex plays “Mikey Saber,” a former porn star who has returned to Texas City after his career ended for unknown reasons, and tries to move back in with his estranged wife, Lexi (Bree Elrod), who at least for a time was in adult films with him. After a few futile attempts to find regular work, stymied by the long gap on his resume, Mikey begins selling weed for Leondria, who distributes with the help of her kids, especially her stoic daughter June. When Mikey has enough money to finally pay Lexi and her mom Lil something for rent, he takes them to the local donut shop, where he meets 17-year-old Strawberry (Son), and immediately sets his sights on seducing her, with an eye towards taking her to LA and using her as his way back into the porn industry.

As in The Florida Project, the majority of actors in Red Rocket are non-professionals; only Rex and Elrod had more than one acting credit before this film, with Elrod mostly working on the stage since she was in Shutter Island a decade ago. Baker’s skill for finding people who can fill these roles is remarkable, with Brittney Rodriguez (June) especially standing out once her character finally gets to talk, in the film’s funniest scene by far, a family squabble near the end of the movie that was, of course, provoked by Mikey.

But it’s Rex and especially Son who make this movie. Rex is perfectly annoying as the guy who never shuts up about himself, his plans, how greatness is just around the corner, how he would already have been rich and/or famous except that something happened. He has an external locus of control large enough to enclose his giant ego, and he never tires of telling everyone who’ll listen about it. Son is a revelation as Strawberry, a convincing teenager (she’s actually 26) who leans a little into the Lolita role Mikey sees for her, but who is also naïve enough not to realize how sinister Mikey’s motives are and to appear to fall for him and his schemes, even when some external factors should tip her off. She evinces the superficial worldliness of the teenager who thinks she’s an adult, especially since the world often treats her that way, but who’s also too trusting and sometimes misses obvious points about how the world works. She also gets to sing in one of the movie’s stranger moments – it comes after a sex scene, which is awkward like every single sex scene in the movie, almost always because of Mikey – and has a lovely voice that had me convinced I’d heard her before. (She sounds like one of the many indie singer/songwriters out there right now, although I haven’t been able to figure out which one yet.)

The film is dark, despite being incredibly funny, and never quite grapples with how awful Mikey is other than letting you see the person under the hood (quite literally, near the end of the film). He’s a 40-something creep who seduces a 17-year-old and sees absolutely nothing wrong with it, even when he tells her ex-boyfriend to leave her alone because she’s with Mikey now. He uses his closest friend, or the closest thing he has to a friend, for free transportation for weeks, only to land that friend in a world of trouble from which Mikey escapes. He weasels his way back into Lexi’s life, clearly giving her false hope that he’s sticking around and will allow her to put something back together – her mother is addicted to opioids, and Lexi might be as well – only to have him ditch her the moment he locks in on Strawberry as his mark. He’s irredeemable with no interest in redemption. I have known several people, all men, just like him, convinced that a huge success is just around the corner, that the world simultaneously owes them this success and is the only thing denying it to them. They’re insufferable even as friends or acquaintances, and that’s if you don’t get caught up in one of their schemes. It’s a testament to Baker’s script and Rex’s performance that Mikey is so familiar and recognizable, and that he can entertain us even as we want to throttle him.

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→ March 2, 2022
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C’mon C’mon.

C’mon C’mon was written and directed by Mike Mills (not the REM/Baseball Project bassist), and doesn’t include that song, just to answer the two most obvious questions up front. It is a beautiful, tiny, intimate film, sweeping you up into its leisurely rhythm, combining humor, grief, and a vision of parenthood from the outside into a near-perfect film. (You can rent it now on Amazon, Google Play, or iTunes.)

Joaquin Phoenix plays Johnny, a journalist working on a radio documentary where he and a small crew travel to large cities in the U.S. to interview kids about their views on the world today and what the future might be like. He calls his sister Viv (Gaby Hoffman), who asks him to come to Los Angeles to watch his nephew Jesse (Woody Norman) for a few days while she travels to Oakland to look after her estranged husband Paul, who is bipolar and not getting the proper help or taking care of himself. A few days turns into a few weeks, so Johnny takes Jesse on the road with him, and has to serve as a friend and a guardian and a temporary parent to a kid who misses both his mom and his dad.

It’s part buddy comedy, part road movie, but it’s always authentic – there is something very honest about every detail in this film, which gets a boost from the real interviews that Phoenix conducted during the filming. (One of the boys he interviews was shot and killed last summer on his stoop; the film is dedicated to his memory.) These vignettes, often Phoenix asking a question followed by several kids, who look like they’re maybe 8 to 16 years old, providing answers – thoughtful, funny, sad, honest answers that gives the outside look at childhood to contrast with the main narrative’s inside look.

Phoenix is perfectly understated as Johnny, but Norman steals the show here – he’s more than just the cute kid, and rises to the challenge of a script that asks him to show a wide range of emotions and behaviors. Jesse is a pretty typical 8-year-old kid, by turns sweet and rambunctious, not always aware of his surroundings but sometimes acutely aware that his person wasn’t nearby. He’s a social kid, and funny, but also has that habit of kids that age of assuming that whatever they find interesting will be just as interesting to everyone around them. He also loves conspiracy theories, with Johnny’s crewmates eating up his talk about them in one scene in a restaurant that helps establish how easily Jesse gets along with adults – something we learn from later scenes is an adaptive behavior.

The Viv material is the weakest part, not least because it’s not entirely clear why her presence is required in Oakland, especially once Paul gets into inpatient mental health treatment. The arc of Viv and Jesse’s relationship suffers a little from its scant screen time; we do see through flashbacks that it has had its vicissitudes, and learn from a poignant conversation between Jesse and Johnny that the latter may have had a role in his sister’s marriage breaking up. It’s not implausible, but it falls into the space in between useful background and underdeveloped subplot.

C’mon C’mon is entirely in black and white, which cuts two ways here; it’s always gimmicky when a modern film is shot that way, but it does add to the film’s sense of scale. Everything about this movie is so small, in the best possible sense. The black and white aspect only increases that intimacy, making the movie seem leaner and more spare, although I can also see an argument that it’s not necessary, and that doing so in 2021 is showy.

I admit to liking this movie more than my faux-critic side does – C’mon C’mon depicts a fundamental part of being human, and does so with compassion and humor. Many of my favorite movies do something like this, and the fact that this movie does so in such a simple, elegant way makes me love it even more. And I wish that Norman had gotten a Best Supporting Actor nod for his work, to go along with the BAFTA nomination he got in the same category. He’s just fantastic, and without him, the movie wouldn’t seem as real or pack the same punch.

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→ March 1, 2022
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The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Jessica Chastain won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actress in a Film this past weekend for her portrayal of the title character in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, yet another in the ongoing series of crappy biopics churned out by Hollywood as Oscar bait. It’s especially unfortunate here, as Tammy Faye Bakker was a far more interesting person than this movie even considers, and wastes a solid performance by Chastain that’s more than the garden-variety impersonations that usually win these categories. (It’s streaming free on HBO Max.)

If you know of Tammy Faye Bakker already, it’s because she was the wife of televangelist Jim Bakker for most of her life; they met in college and she appeared on air with him for over two decades, helping him build a following and then an entire network, while also becoming a bit of a punch line herself for her excessive makeup and the way it would run when she’d cry. Their empire imploded when two scandals hit – Jim had been siphoning off donors’ money, and some of it went to pay off an employee, Jessica Hahn, who accused Bakker of raping her. The Bakkers divorced while he was behind bars, and Tammy Faye later married a business associate of theirs who himself later went to prison for bankruptcy fraud – she could sure pick ’em! – and died in 2007 of colon cancer.

That’s her story, at least the most public part of it, and that’s the story that The Eyes of Tammy Faye tells, when it bothers to tell a story at all. (Don’t even get me started on how much is made up in this film – pun intended.) This is a biopic, but not a biography. It’s not interested in telling us about Tammy Faye Bakker, the person. It’s a recitation of things that happened to her. She had an unhappy childhood. She married young. She helped Jim Bakker build his business with her puppets and her high, sing-songy voice. Her marriage crumbled, then fell apart. We get a few glimpses of her character, such as the various times she refuses to be the subservient wife when Bakker’s colleagues Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are around – Jerry Jr. isn’t depicted, as he was busy with the pool cleaner – but those are scant, because a script this perfunctory has to play the hits. (Vincent D’Onofrio is unrecognizable as Falwell, although you might pick up his voice behind the clipped speech.)

The script does show the most important anecdote from Tammy Faye’s public life, at least: her on-air, live interview with Steve Pieters, a gay pastor who was diagnosed with HIV in 1982. (He’s still alive and gave a wonderful interview with Religion & Politics about the experience and the new film.) It was a compassionate, non-judgmental conversation, one that was consistent with Tammy Faye’s view of Christianity, showing love and compassion for everyone without judgment, but not Falwell’s and Robertson’s. Even today, it’s hard to imagine an evangelical TV show airing such a segment. In 1985, though, it was revolutionary – and Tammy Faye remained a supporter of the LGBTQ+ community for the rest of her life, even serving as the grand marshal of a pride parade at one point. This illustrates a lot more about the person she was than a series of vignettes, like the nonsense one about how they first ended up on television after their car was stolen (never happened), shows us.

Instead, The Eyes of Tammy Faye paints by numbers – this happened, and this happened, and then this happened, and then she took a bunch of pills, and then it all fell apart. (As far as I can tell, she never appeared intoxicated or stoned on air, either.) It is a series of unfortunate events, with no attempts to connect any of them, or give the audience any understanding of the people behind them other than painting Jim in broad strokes – which may be all he deserves, as both a philanderer and a fraud – and Tammy in only slightly less broad ones.

Chastain and Andrew Garfield expend so much energy trying to sound like the Bakkers that their work feels more like mimicry than acting – which is probably unfair to them both, but more to Chastain, who also has a lot more to do than Garfield does. Garfield’s Bakker is wooden, ambitious, single-minded, and if his faith was real at some point, it loses out to his desire for money and power. That transition occurs off screen, although you could argue its impact on Tammy Faye deserved more explanation. Chastain’s performance is more central, given that she’s the protagonist of the film, yet her imitation of Tammy Faye’s voice and mannerisms, as well as hair and makeup that make it hard to recognize the actress beneath, is hard to separate from the performance. She’s probably better than Nicole Kidman’s in Being the Ricardos, but there is no way on earth I’d vote for her over Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter, and I think Alana Haim was better in Licorice Pizza as well. The Eyes of Tammy Faye also got a nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling; I’ve only seen one other nominee, Dune, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this one win. It’s just not a very good movie, despite, or perhaps because of, all the emphasis on making it look right.

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→ February 26, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 2/26/22.

No new content directly from me this week for subscribers to the Athletic, but if I can shake this cold I have right now – the first time I’ve been sick since we all started masking just under two years ago – I’ll have a draft piece this upcoming week. I have done Q&As with our beat writers who cover the Orioles, Dbacks, Pirates, Red Sox, Twins, and Royals, and subscribers can also see all parts of my prospects ranking package here.

My guest on the Keith Law Show this week was Matthew Murphy, lead singer and songwriter of the Wombats, talking about their latest album Fix Yourself, Not the World; his unusual lyrics; and mental health. Listen via The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes, Amazon, that other site, or wherever you get your podcasts. My free email newsletter returned last week as well, catching those of you who subscribe up on various things from my life from the last month as well as links to all the things I have written since the start of 2022.

And now, the links…

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→ February 25, 2022
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Hive.

Hive became the first film in the history of the Sundance film festival to win all three of its main awards (Grand Jury, Directing, and Audience Prizes), and became Kosovo’s submission for this year’s Academy Award for Best International Film, making the shortlist of fifteen films but not the final five (in a very competitive year). The movie is a worthy successor to the 2021 nominee, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Quo Vadis, Aida?, continuing the region’s Both movies revolve around stories of the Serbian-led genocides of the 1990s, but while the Bosnian film stays almost entirely within the events of the Srebrenica massacre, Hive deals with the aftermath of the genocide in Kosovo, following one woman whose husband disappeared during the killings in Krusha e Madhe, now called the “Village of War Widows,” and tries to find a way to support her family.

Based on the true story of Fahrije Hoti, Hive follows its main character as she has the idea to work with other (presumed) widows in their village to start a business selling ajvar, the local red pepper-based relish, similar to Bosnian pinjur (which, briefly, was available at Trader Joes!). As the film opens, Fahrije is seen working with a local charity that is offering to teach women to drive so that they can find work, although many of the women object to the fact that the teacher will be male. In a state that is 96% Muslim, being alone with a man in a car would be unacceptable, and these traditional gender restrictions are one of the film’s major themes, as the massacre of the town’s men means many of the women have no source of income.

Fahrije lives with her father-in-law, who uses a wheelchair and refuses to give up hope that his son is alive or to make allowances for the need for his daughter-in-law to earn a living; and her two children, one of whom is a teenager who is sensitive to the way the town perceives her mother. She keeps bees and tries to sell the honey in town, but it’s too meager an income to support their needs. When Fahrije tries to start the business, she finds a willing buyer at the local supermarket, who is willing to give them shelf space and supports their efforts – I kept waiting for the twist there, but there wasn’t one – yet faces needless opposition from the men in her town, from having her car window smashed to someone coming into their makeshift warehouse and destroying inventory. The man from whom she buys the main ingredient for the ajvar, red peppers, keeps pestering her to go out with him. And she’s trying to find out if her husband’s remains are among those found near the town’s river, an effort that requires DNA from her father-in-law but which he refuses to provide.

Hive offers a simple narrative, taking the viewer from that initial meeting with the women’s organization through the idea and to execution, without spending too much time on any one part of the story – especially not the conception of the ajvar cooperative, which could have been dreadful if they’d tried to extend the scene. One of the great strengths of the script is how much is left unsaid; the characters talk tersely, which keeps the story moving and also infuses it with a sense of rage and frustration simmering below the surface. Yllka Gashi plays Fahrije, and her taut, anguished performance is essential; even when her efforts succeed, there’s always a sense that it’s transient, or that no matter what happens, she’ll continue to be haunted by the uncertainty of her husband’s fate. (The movie’s ending is not entirely factual, at least on that last front.) Its strength lies in its simplicity, but at the same time, it also limits the film’s ceiling – as does the general adherence to a true story. It doesn’t have the serial gut punches of Quo Vadis, Aida?, instead telling a story about the survivors, one that juxtaposes the horrors of the Serbians’ atrocities in the former Yugoslavia with a single anecdote of hope. It has the feel of a good, low-budget indie movie – which is not to detract from first-time writer/director Blerta Basholli’s efforts here. If anything, I’d like to see what she can do next, perhaps with more resources, even to continue shining a light on what happened in her native Kosovo.

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→ February 23, 2022
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Nightmare Alley.

Nightmare Alley took home a Best Picture nomination despite tepid reviews for a movie that ended up in that echelon, with unfavorable comparisons to the 1947 black-and-white version that director Guillermo del Toro chose to update. For fans of noir cinema, however, this is a fantastic melding of that genre’s conventions with del Toro’s visual style and meticulous placement, one that I found incredibly entertaining up until the rather predictable, on-the-nose ending.

Adapted from a 1946 novel of the same name, Nightmare Alley follows the path of a con man named Stanton Carlisle (Bradley Cooper), who we see burning down a house with a body in it, without any explanation given, and then who walks off a bus and into a carnival, where he ends up with a job. On his first night there, he sees the carnival geek, whose role is to bite the heads off live chickens and drink their blood as entertainment for the carnival’s patrons. Stanton learns the art of cold-reading from other carnival workers, and falls for one of the other carnies, Molly (Rooney Mara). The two take off together and form a mentalist act for a dinner theatre show in Buffalo, where they encounter Dr. Lilith Ritter (Cate Blanchett) and her wealthy client, the latter of whom believes Stanton can communicate with his dead son. Stanton hatches a plan to con that client and other wealthy men in the city by using information from Dr. Ritter, offering to split the money with her, but it goes awry when another client, Ezra Grindle (Richard Jenkins), wants more than Stanton can provide.

The film looks incredible, as you’d expect from del Toro, although this time around he has no supernatural elements to work with – the monsters are inside the characters themselves, so to speak. The city of Buffalo has never looked so vibrant and glamorous, and even the carnival has a grim beauty under the lights, when the show is on. The film is set in 1939, with a depression on and war beckoning, but you’d never know it except when the characters mention the war in passing, with opulence everywhere once we get to the big city – especially Dr. Ritter’s office, with walls that appear gold-plated and a recording apparatus that looks like it came from the science fiction stories of that era.

Del Toro also coaxes some great performances from a loaded cast, not least of which are those of Cooper and Blanchett. Cooper earned more Oscar buzz for the two minutes he’s on screen in Licorice Pizza, but there’s far more to this character and Cooper plays it so effortlessly that perhaps we’re starting to take him for granted. Blanchett is marvelously inscrutable as the good doctor, with unclear motives and fungible ethics; her actual interest in Stanton is obscured until their final scene together. David Strathairn and Toni Collette do their usual, understated thing as the pair who pretend to be psychics at the carnival, while Willem Dafoe leans into his creepier side as the carnival’s operator, although he unnerves less through malice than through his lack of empathy for anyone else. There’s a great cameo from Mary Steenburgen in a one-note role as well. Mara, unfortunately, is as flat and toneless as ever, making it hard to see what Carlisle sees in her, and almost as hard to sympathize with her when he leaves her in the lurch.

This film looked like it was going to end in one of two ways, and del Toro chose the one that’s telegraphed early on in the film, which is true to the novel’s ending but feels so overdone – foreshadowing is great, but the amount of time this script spends telling you where it’s going to end up gives the ending the aftertaste of an artificial sweetener. It contrasts with the film’s refusal to be explicit with background details, including Carlisle’s and Ritter’s pasts, and what drives each of them to do what they do. There’s a recurring symbol of the corpse of a baby that Dafoe’s character keeps in his trailer, but it’s never fleshed out in any way, with a lot of speculation (this one is pretty good, with a small spoiler involved) but nothing concrete, and it felt more like del Toro being del Toro, rather than something that added to the finished product.

I enjoyed Nightmare Alley for its noir vibe and some of the very strong performances, but I can’t believe this is one of the top ten movies of the year – it’s more style than substance and it failed to stick the landing. It’s not as good as Parallel Mothers or The Lost Daughter, neither of which took a Best Picture nomination, just to pick two that I’ve already seen. It took a Best Cinematography nomination as well, but of the four nominees I’ve seen, I’d rank it fourth for that category. It’s also nominated for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design, however, and seems worthy of both honors.

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→ February 22, 2022
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Parallel Mothers.

Pedro Almodóvar earned his first Oscar nomination in 1988, as Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown made the final five for that year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign-Language Film (now Best International Film). He won the same award eleven years later, for Todo Sobre Mi Madre, my introduction to his work, and was most recently nominated for the strong, introspective Pain and Glory, which earned a Best Actor nomination for Antonio Banderas two years ago.

Almodóvar’s most recent work, the outstanding Parallel Mothers, finds the director similarly pensive, but this time he’s looking outward, with a two-layered story about truth and reconciliation in Almodóvar’s native Spain, a country that is still grappling with the legacy of a dictatorship that ended nearly a half-century ago. Parallel Mothers starts with a story about a mass grave from the Spanish Civil War, then pivots abruptly into the two mothers of the title, both of whom give birth in the same hospital but find themselves intertwined by the events that come afterwards, before we return to the story of the grave in a sweeping conclusion. The middle story itself packs an emotional wallop, but it is also a grand metaphor for the challenges Spain – or really any country – faces in confronting the truth of its past.

Penelope Cruz, who got the film’s one Academy Award nomination this year (for Best Actress), plays the photographer Janis Martinez, who happens to be taking pictures of a forensic anthropologist named Arturo. The fascists killed her great-grandfather in the 1930s, forcing him first to dig the mass grave in which he’d be buried, and then tore him from his family a night later. Janis asks Arturo if he could help exhume and identify the bodies, with help from the government’s truth commission. They also sleep together, from which Janis gets pregnant, a development she welcomes, as she’s 40 and has always wanted children. She shares a room at the hospital with the teenaged Ana, who is unhappy at her condition, and they become friends for the moment, although they lose touch once they resume their lives outside the hospital. When they reconnect, Janis learns that Ana’s baby died of SIDS, and she asks Ana to move in and be her au pair, but she has an ulterior motive as well.

The Janis/Ana story itself contains multitudes; both characters are complex, with detailed backstories, reasons why they are who they are, yet no connection to each other beyond the coincidence of their simultaneous arrivals at the hospital. Janis knows a truth that she can’t bear to share with anyone, including Ana and Arturo, but without the truth – and even a chance for reconciliation – nobody can move forward with their lives. When that truth comes out, it sets off a bomb in their lives, threatening everything Janis has wanted, but that’s followed by a period of forgiveness and understanding that wouldn’t be possible without the truth, no matter how brutal. Only after that can we return to the story of the mass grave, as Arturo takes a team to the village where Janis’ great-grandfather died, and where her family still lives, and begins the process of searching for and disinterring the remains.

There’s enough metaphor and symbolism here to fill someone’s senior thesis. The parallels between the Janis/Ana story and Spain’s own uncomfortable grappling with the impacts of the Civil War and the fascist Franco’s tyrannical, forty-year reign give Parallel Mothers its narrative framework, but Almódovar has populated the film with smaller details that give depth to the story of the two women while also sharpening the connection between the nested stories. As for symbolism, there’s food everywhere here, such as when Janis teaches Ana to make a tortilla Española, a classic Spanish dish of thinly sliced potatoes poached in olive oil and finished with eggs to bind it. It’s a national dish (a big deal in a country with divers regional cuisines), and its history goes back at least 200 years; passing this knowledge from one generation to the next, as Janis does to Ana, may stand in for the idea of passing along all knowledge, presaging a later scene where the two argue in Janis’s kitchen, and the older women lectures Ana over her ignorance of her country’s history. (I don’t know if there’s any symbolism to this part, but I certainly noticed the gigantic wheel of Manchego sitting on Janis’s counter, under class, and you are fooling yourself if you think I’m not trying to figure out how to get my wife to sign off on that in our house.) The color red appears everywhere in the film, from Janis’s handbag to her phone case to various decorative objects in her home, which is an Almodóvar trademark; here it could stand in for the blood spilled in Spain’s 20th century, unmentioned and yet pervasive even if no one wishes to discuss it. There are substantial hairstyle changes, little language quirks, so many choices in the script that seem deliberate given what Almodóvar was trying to do with the concentric narratives.

This is one of my favorite films of 2021, although I wouldn’t put it at the very top. The film’s finale is moving, although it comes upon the viewer rather quickly; the script probably could have gone longer, both to resolve the Janis/Ana storyline and provide more time in the rural village where the exhumation takes place. There’s also a smaller twist in the relationship between the two women that seemed to come from nowhere, almost as a convenience, and it doesn’t contribute meaningfully enough to the plot for me to buy into it. Cruz is so good in this, with Milena Smit also superb as Ana, that combined with the literary, layered script, I still found myself lost in its depths long after I left the theater.

I’m not sure why Spain selected The Good Boss, which stars Javier Bardem (Cruz’s husband), over this as its submission to the Academy Awards this year, although the one-film-per-country thing has already outlived any usefulness it may have had, but the one nomination it got, for Cruz, is well deserved – she’s certainly better than Nicole Kidman, who may win. (Cruz also became just the fifth woman nominated twice for Best Actress for films in languages other than English, and the first to do so for two Spanish-language roles.) I have read, but have no way to verify, that the Spanish film group that chooses its submissions dislikes Almodóvar, having passed over his Volver and Bad Education, but the joke is on them, as The Good Boss made the shortlist but not the final five nominees for Best International Film.

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→ February 19, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 2/19/22.

My prospects ranking package is now all posted for subscribers to the Athletic. Here’s the complete rundown of everything that ran:

BaltimoreHoustonChicago Cubs
BostonLA AngelsCincinnati
NY YankeesOaklandMilwaukee
Tampa BaySeattlePittsburgh
TorontoTexasSt. Louis
Chicago White SoxAtlantaArizona
ClevelandMiamiColorado
DetroitNY MetsLA Dodgers
Kansas CityPhiladelphiaSan Diego
MinnesotaWashingtonSan Francisco

I also did two Q&As over at the Athletic, one the day the farm rankings went up and one the day the top 100 went up.

Since my last stick to baseball post, I’ve reviewed several board games over at Paste as well, including Nidavellir, one of my favorite games from 2021; Equinox, a new version of Reiner Knizia’s game Colossal Arena; The Rocketeer: Fate of the Future, a two-player game based on the 1991 cult classic; and Wilson & Shep, a cute bluffing game for players as young as five.

I’ve done a bunch of podcasts and radio things related to the top 100, including the Seattle Sports Union; the Update with Adam Copeland (talking Giants prospects); Press Box Online (Orioles); Sox Machine (White Sox); and Karraker & Smallmon (Cardinals).

My own podcast returned in late January, with three episodes since my last roundup: Michael Schur, author of How to Be Perfect and creator of the show The Good Place; the post-punk band Geese, an episode where I answered a bunch of reader questions on the top 100 too; and union labor lawyer Eugene Freedman, who gave his thoughts on the MLB lockout. You can subscribe via iTunes, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

And now, the links…

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