Bowlaway.

I’d never even heard of Elizabeth McCracken until my friend Eden suggested to me at Gen Con that I check out McCracken’s newest novel Bowlaway. McCracken, who edits Ann Patchett’s novels, was a finalist for the National Book Award in 1996 and has earned some smaller plaudits for her work since then, but this was the first time I’d encountered her. Based on n of 1, at least, she is a wonderful storyteller on par with Patchett, and while I’m not really sure if there’s a broader point to Bowlaway, I was completely enraptured by the story, which washes over the reader with waves of fun or interesting characters.

Bowlaway opens with a woman in a graveyard in a fictional town just outside of Boston just after the turn of the 20th century, and no real clue of how she got there. Bertha Truitt doesn’t remember her previous history, or just isn’t telling, but she enters the town on a mission to introduce candlepin bowling, a regional variation on bowling with a much smaller bowl and slimmer pins. She founds an alley called, of course, Bowlaway, and attracts a group of regulars, including several local women, while also employing a pair of the town’s eccentrics. Bertha marries and has a child, and when she dies, the narrative shifts to her husband, then to his housekeeper, and on around to other people who are all primarily connected through the bowling alley, including one later owner who wants to ban women from the alley.

The characters are mostly well-drawn and three-dimensional, flawed and interesting and often amusing in their own peculiar ways. Bertha’s departure from the novel is a disappointment, as she’s the most larger-than-life character in the book and provides so much of the spark that sets the novel ablaze. If there’s a movie or TV series to be made from Bowlaway, it’s going to revolve around Bertha, who has most of the best lines in the book and could also be the breakout character getting quoted and captured in GIFs. Margaret, the housekeeper, is also very well-written, but her character is suffused with sadness and there’s a sort of simplicity to her personality that makes her less enjoyable on the page. The one character I found a bit disappointing is Bertha’s husband, Leviticus Sprague, whom McCracken gives an idiosyncratic way of speaking but who disappears into the bottle after his wife’s death; Margaret’s kids are also a bit meh, especially the profligate one who also takes to drink.

While Bowlaway has a real conclusion to its plot, it’s not clear whether there’s a point to all of this other than to tell a good, fun story. McCracken seems to love her characters, and that alone is enough to make the book a compelling read, although I did stop a number of times because of that persistent, subcutaneous feeling that I was missing a greater theme. It’s not quite empty calories, since McCracken’s prose is good (and smart) and the characters work, but it’s unusual for me to read fiction that isn’t genre that doesn’t have something more significant going on underneath the hood.

There is, however, the mere passage of time, which itself does allow McCracken to get into some additional cultural shifts as her fictional town goes from a somewhat sleepy hamlet to an active suburb of Boston, connected to the city via mass transit. The novel spans something close to 70 years – she’s vague with some of the dates – so she tracks characters, the alley, and the town across the decades, working in real-world events like the Great Molasses Flood. She also has the habit of dispatching characters major and minor in gruesome ways; the molasses takes one, another goes the way of Old Krook; others are killed by flying objects or a runaway horse. Death is just another detail in the world of Bowlaway, especially when the characters aren’t essential.

It’s really a better book than I’ve made it sound here – I tore through it and, once I got past the fact that the best character was gone before the midpoint of the novel, found myself enraptured by McCracken’s prose and knack for spinning new stories out of the spare threads of the ones before. I don’t know that it amounts to much, but the journey there is enough.

Next up: Gary Smith’s Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie With Statistics.

Klawchat 9/12/19.

ESPN+ subscribers can read my Prospect of the Year column for 2019.

Keith Law: A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.

Lyle: How soon could the M’s run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law: Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn’t performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.

addoeh: Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects? They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there’s still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law: I think they’ve drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.

Sam: When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law: I mentioned in this week’s newsletter that I will have information on it soon.

Moe Mentum: I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law: Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.

Jim: North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law: Totally unsurprising.

Richard: Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he’ll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on this year’s performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I’d buy in.

Richard: Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because I don’t think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.

JR: Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry – LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law: Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won’t disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.

Dave: Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law: No. He wouldn’t be up if they hadn’t had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he’s ready to be an average regular.

Chris: Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law: What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They’ve done it before.

Craig: Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law: Disagree that he’s “slept on.” High draft pick, well known within the industry. He’s very good.

Jerod: Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law: I’m buying. He was very much in that “guy you thought would hit but were wrong about” category for me till this year.

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of times you get people trying to play “gotcha” on you with players you’re not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see more than a full year for that. I don’t always have that luxury of time, but we’ve seen so many players have fluke years that it’s too easy to say “welp, I was wrong,” only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.

JR: Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law: Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.

Jeff: Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law: If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.

Craig: You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law: I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a “full bore metal” one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.

Bryan (Montclair): Do you think that J.D. Davis’ bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law: I’m inclined to the latter.

Eric: North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law: That works, especially with the whole “several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature” comparison.

David: Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it’s a disaster there.
Keith Law: It’s gotten a lot weaker, but I don’t think it’s a disaster, and some of this stuff (Groome blowing out, Flores passing away) isn’t anyone’s fault.
Keith Law: I think that was a factor. I can’t believe that would be THE factor.

Chris: Do you like Tool? Listen to the new album?
Keith Law: Not a fan, sorry.

Jerod: Last year the Brewers got within one game of the WS with an average run differential. This year they are negative and near the second wild card. Is this just noise or are they doing something different than other teams?
Keith Law: Some luck but also generally great bullpens.

Ben: With Yelich out, who’s your favorite for MVP – or is it still him?
Keith Law: It was never him, FTR. Bellinger has had the edge over him all year.

Luke: This is probably a dumb question, but why does the minor league season end with a month left of major league games?
Keith Law: Aside from this is how we’ve always done it? I think so teams could recall players for September.

Andrew: Thoughts on Blue Jays C prospect Alejandro Kirk? Posted a 153 wRC+ in high A this year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure how long he catches, given his body, but he can hit.

Zac: Do the Tigers have a hitting prospect that you are excited to watch or is it only pitching?
Keith Law: Riley Greene for sure. Paredes can hit, but I’m not sure where he plays and he has no projection at all. Hill can really run and defend but the bat has never progressed.

TK: I feel things like “clubhouse culture” are a bit overstated, but the Pirates must have serious problems in theirs. Three separate incidents (including a fight that has now caused a pitcher to miss the rest of the season) with their bullpen? Something has got to change there, no?
Keith Law: At some point, the manager has to take the fall, if only for failing to prevent such incidents.

Andres: 5 more good-to-great seasons, is Jacob deGrom a future HOFer? Despite the low counting stats.
Keith Law: No, that’s not close to enough. The bar is really high for modern starters and what you’re talking about probably leaves him short of 60 WAR>

Cole: It’s probably too early for this but who do you see as the major players for Gerrit Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Any contender should be interested, but I assume the Yankees and Angels will both be bidders and could blow anyone else out of the water. They both have the resources and the critical need for him.

Jeb: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz? Could he be a top 20-25 prospect by mid-season next year?
Keith Law: Way too optimistic.

Dan: How does Mickey Callaway still have a job? Dude constantly seems overwhelmed.
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the manager most likely to be fired by October, followed by Hurdle and perhaps Kapler. (That’s not my opinion on who should be fired.)

Jordan: I know it’s only 42 games in rookie ball, but it feels like Francisco Alvarez really has a chance to be something for the Mets. A 17-year-old catcher with that kind of pop in his bat is fun to see. Think he should start next year in Columbia?
Keith Law: I would probably start him in extended … after seeing the Phillies push Luis Garcia from the GCL to low-A, only to have him flop, I’m a little loath to suggest other 18-year-olds make that leap. Franco was an obvious exception, but I don’t know if Alvarez is ready – and 35 games in the Appy, while better than the GCL, don’t tell us a ton.

Ian: Would you agree that you enjoy being wrong about players? I always laugh when people get mad at you like you’re some kind of prospect magician.
Keith Law: Yes, if I were always right, this job would be boring. I get frustrated or even upset when I’m wrong for specific reasons – e.g., I didn’t listen to the opinion of someone I trusted, I didn’t see a player (at all, or just enough) and thus missed key information. But you can’t do this job unless you embrace being wrong.

Aaron: How many states would you refuse to live in based on politics?
Keith Law: Woof, probably 15-20 right now.

Guest: Matt Olson has been among 1b leaders since 2016 in drs/uzr/uzr150. When he was a prospect even the most optimistic outlets projected him as an average defensive 1b. Where do you think the disconnect between drs/uzr and the scouting community comes from?
Keith Law: I don’t think UZR/DRS do a very good job measuring 1b defense.

danny: I think you mentioned recently having The Nightingale on your list of movies to see. It’s fairly long, quite grim, with multiple rapes and killings along the way. I wouldn’t say it’s a bad movie overall, but really grim.
Keith Law: Yeah, a few readers have suggested it, but given how many other films I’d like to see + the fact that it’s not really new (it came out in 2018 in Australia, I believe), it’s lower priority.

Sean: Is Miguel Vargas a top 100 guy for you next year?
Keith Law: Possibly.

Mike: As a fellow liberal, how do we reconcile support for affirmative action and unions with the fact that Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz have jobs?
Keith Law: I don’t see the disconnect. You’re conflating a macro issue with individual examples.

Pat D: I know he was an older rookie and not really that good a player, but what do you make of Daniel Palka’s season? Can he replace Kevin Maas in the baseball lexicon?
Keith Law: I think he can be a solid bench player.

Sean: Who has a higher ceiling between Matthew Allan and Manoah?
Keith Law: Allan. But much further from his ceiling than Manoah is.

Stu (UK): Cheers, Keith! My mates and I are big into baseball and have adopted the White Sox (don’t ask) – Will Luis Robert be great, or merely very good?
Keith Law: Either one of those outcomes is possible. It will depend on how he handles ML pitchers who have better stuff and can locate it more – I’ve spoken a few times about his issues with velocity inside.

Mike: Do you attend many music concerts (live)? Or do the ridiculously high prices of most concerts turn you off?
Keith Law: Saw Phish twice in June, tickets for another show in October, couple of others I might hit this fall depending on my own schedule. I can’t imagine going to a big stadium show but seeing a show in one of the many clubs around Philly isn’t very expensive.

Darin: Which would you rather see in person?

Immaculate inning

Unassisted triple play
Keith Law: I don’t even notice the whole “immaculate inning” thing.

Derek: Miguel Yajure another pop up Yankees prospect with starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes.

Johnny: It sounds like the Jays are not going to do much this off-season since they’ve repeatedly said they’ll spend when the team starts winning. What do you think they should do this off-season, and how far away are they, really?
Keith Law: There’s a small issue with that in that they may not start winning (enough) until they spend more money.

Jason: What’re your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Can he be a reliable starter or 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Someone else asked how I ranked the Yanks’ three reclamation projects this year by confidence they’ll sustain their gains and I feel like Tauchman is third of the three, with Voit first and Urshuela second.

Zach: Mitch Garver has 30hrs in <300 PA. That’s Just Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Nice player, but come on. The Happy Fun Ball has screwed up everyone’s stat lines.

Steve: long term outlook on Austin Riley? He got hurt, but slumped badly both before and after. Should the braves attempt to resign Donaldson?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy Riley ever being a regular. Bat speed has always been questionable and we saw in the majors how that led to unworkable BB and K rates.

Marc: Julio Pablo Martinez looked like he started to turn things around the second half of the season. Any chance this turnaround is for real and he turns into the player the Rangers hoped?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he has the tools to be more than an extra OF. He’s really small. ++ run, maybe there’s a leadoff type (OBP and speed) if he’s strong enough to get to it.

mike sixel: Would you call up Kiriloff at this point? thanks<
Keith Law: Probably not.

Alex: Who should I be listening to if I liked Botanist’s Shape of He to Come? Also — over the next 10 years, what’s the over/under on additional Soroka All-Star appearances? Two?
Keith Law: I’m not sure who to compare to the Botanist … I’m not particularly a fan of black metal in general or that sort of largely non-melodic extreme metal in particular. Insomnium and Alcest both had new recent tracks I liked that had some death-metal vocals but also far more interesting music. If you put the O/U at 2.5 I’d probably take the under.

Pat D: Considering all the time he dedicates to it, would you consider yourself a bona fide celebrity if Trump started picking a fight with you on Twitter?
Keith Law: Not sure if that would be worth the aggravation.

Santos: Overall Kingery looks really good this year. Good defense, versatility, speed, decent power, etc. But his OBP is low. What’s your outlook on his on base skills going forward?
Keith Law: He’s never been a high OBP guy but I think he can hit for average and bring his K rate down over time. I still think he’s a ++ defender at second. Maybe after this year they turn the position over to him.

Sean: What is Ketel Marte’s “real” talent level at this point? Can he be an annual 5+ WAR player for the next few years? If this year is a mirage, what will change?
Keith Law: I think he’s a legitimately good hitter, although the .342 BABIP and the HR rate both feel like functions of the Happy Fun Ball … but if you told me he averaged 4 WAR over the next five years, with maybe 20 HR/year and a .320 BABIP, I’d buy it.

Jerry: Do either of Urquidy or Tucker have a chance to make the ALDS roster? How much of an impact can Toro make or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Toro’s the least valuable of the three for the playoffs, I think. I’d try to get the other two on the roster.

BigDaddeh: Do you think McCleod has a good job scouting for the Cubs or is this a case of letting a guy do something different?
Keith Law: I assume the latter. Maybe getting him off the road so much. The travel of amateur scouting in particular really wears guys out. I couldn’t do it.

Pat D: Building off the refusal to live in a certain state question, would population size be a factor? Like is North Dakota more preferable to North Carolina because there’s less people to deal with?
Keith Law: North Carolina has both Raleigh and Durham, sizable urban centers with progressive populations, diversity, and the kinds of services I want in my community. I’d take that over an entirely rural red state like ND.

Bruce: Will Smith is off to a great start as a hitter – is his power for real? How does he rate defensively?
Keith Law: Power was there last year too and I wrote on my offseason top 100 that it was legit.

Rob: i know you like Elizabeth Warren. Any other D candidates that you hold in high regard?
Keith Law: Of the likeliest candidates, it’s her or Harris for me. Maybe Booker. I’m way out on Biden or Bernie.

Chewy Rich: Are you high on Jose Devers?
Keith Law: Not really.

Matt M: Best chance to become a 1 or 2 in a big league rotation: Spencer Howard or Luis Patino?
Keith Law: Patino has #1 upside; Howard doesn’t. Howard could pitch in a MLB rotation next year; I don’t think Patino could.

Jesse: Does Rendon make sense for the White Sox or should they be focusing more on wheeler or Hamels ?
Keith Law: Pitching.

Yan: Thoughts on Phillies pitcher Francisco Morales? Do you think he can be developed into a front of the rotation arm to pair with Nola/Howard?
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Matt M: When do you see Oneill Cruz debuting with the Pirates, 2020? Is he the SS of the future?
Keith Law: There is a 0% chance he’s a MLB shortstop for me.

Boris: Is the hate against the new ball old man “get off my lawn” nonsense because baseball is different than when i was a kid or are there legit reasons to be mad about it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “get off my lawn” nonsense when homers are up 22% from one year to the next. That’s a vastly different game.

Matt the Brewer Fan: Does Trent Grisham have enough arm to be a right fielder, so Yelich can move back to left next year? Is Grisham a .350 OBP guy, long term? Love your stuff …
Keith Law: I’d try Grisham in RF – yes on the OBP, I am really not certain about his arm.

Todd Boss: So, if Rendon walks and Strasburg opts out, the Nats are in serious trouble no? Either that or they commit $60M/annually for both guys on the wrong side of 30. WWKLD?
Keith Law: I think they could survive Strasburg leaving but without Rendon they don’t have a viable second option.

Pat D: Ever watch The Dark Crystal or have any interest in the Netflix show? Gotta admire that they kept it “low tech” and it looks phenomenal.
Keith Law: Loved the movie as a kid. Will watch the show this offseason.

Mike: Which prospect do you think the Reds will regret giving up most? Don’t know what to make of Trammell right now, but Gray seems special.
Keith Law: And Downs. It’s not really been a banner year for them, trading three of their top ten (maybe top five?) prospects, plus losing Greene to TJ.

Scott: If James Kapriellian stays healthy (big IF), is it reasonable to expect him to push for a rotation spot in Oakland next spring? It sounds like his velocity is almost all the way back finally.
Keith Law: I just don’t know if you can count on him to handle a starter’s workload in 2020, if ever. Loved him prior to the injuries but he has 97 professional innings over 4 full seasons plus one summer since he was drafted.

Dr. Bob: Riffing off of you Blue Jays take, both the Astros and Cubs–the two most successful tanking operations–stopped spending money and concentrated on acquiring young talent. Then when the talent was ready, they opened the pocketbooks for FAs. Right? The problem for other tanking teams (hello, Detroit) is that they don’t seem to be very good at building the farm system and getting the young talent.
Keith Law: Right, that works better if you draft in the top 5 a few times, nail many of those picks, and are aggressive at spending a bit before it seems like you’ll need to.

Joe: While it seems like the Orioles’ pitching prospects took a collective step forward this year, is it fair to say that the hitters took a step back? Feels like none of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, McKenna improved.
Keith Law: I would agree with all four of those assessments. Adam Hall took a step forward.

Yinka Double Dare: Every time I see Mitch Garver’s name I think of “Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute” from SNL – is it just me?
Keith Law: Well, not any more.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Should I be a believer in Amed Rosario for the long term? Over Giminez?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Jason: You are the new Red Sox GM. What are you doing with Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Throwing large piles of money at him.

Tom C: Was listening to a podcast the other day and the usual “how can Trout be MVP, the Angels could be way under .500 even without him, it’s only cause of WAR, but wow the Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without LeMahieu.” Do people not realize that by their own logic there that NYY would still be in first place without LeMahieu?
Keith Law: No, they don’t, because they are not using logic.

Nicole: Will Gore pitch for the Padres next year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably midyear/later but yes.

Peter Hook: Do GM’s ever take into consideration a player’s popularity among fans when deciding whether to re-sign a free agent? Or is it strictly performace and cost?
Keith Law: Owners probably do, but good GMs should never consider that.

Mike: I know you don’t like the sac bunt, but do you want a hitter going to the right side with a runner on 2nd & no outs or would you want him to just focus on a hit?
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard. Especially with the Happy Fun Ball.

Eric: Just a reminder that someone screamed at you incessantly that Ryan Howard was the preeminent power hitter of his time and his contract extension was a good idea.
Keith Law: And that someone is, last I checked, still employed to scream at people.

Boris: Does Elizabeth Warren’s stance on nuclear power concern you at all?
Keith Law: I disagree with her – nuclear power is pretty safe and doesn’t contribute at all to climate change – but 1) no candidate is going to match all of my views and 2) she’s shown herself to be fairly pro-science and may change her mind.

Joseph: Has Jordyn Adams impressed you this year? Just held his own?
Keith Law: Scouting reports were not favorable. He came into pro ball with less experience than most HS hitters, and the low K rate/total are promising.

Anthony: Do you think Willie Calhoun will hit enough to be an above average regular in the OF?
Keith Law: No, if we’re considering the value he’ll give back on defense.

Dave: You should look into adding chorus and delay pedals into your setup. Both add so much to guitar playing
Keith Law: It’s just me around the house, though. If I were playing with a band or even with friends, sure, but I’m just a hobbyist.

Preston: Assuming Soroka, Fried, Teheran & Folty are locks for starting rotation spots, who is the fifth starter for the Braves next season? Or instead of one guy, mix and match Anderson, Wright & Wilson?
Keith Law: Teheran has one year left on his deal and a 4.29 FIP this year. Folty can’t be counted on as a lock for 30 starts; neither can Soroka. I think they need to think more flexibly about their rotation for 2020 than assuming those four guys are locked in and the guys you mentioned + Touki are fighting for one spot.

Sean: What is the best case for Puk next year? ~20 starts and finishing the year as a power bullpen arm around 130-150 total innings?
Keith Law: Sure. Maybe on the lower end by innings, but it’ll depend on how he holds up.

Buddy: Do you follow the NFL? If so, did you see that OBJ wore a $300,000 watch during a game?
Keith Law: I did see that but I don’t understand why it was a big deal. If anything, shouldn’t he be concerned about breaking it?

Ben: Do you have a favorite one-player game?
Keith Law: I think Coffee Roaster is the best I’ve tried, with Friday a close second and definitely easier to learn.

Mike: I’m a pro-science guy, but I have to admit I’m really not a nuclear power fan. Yes, there are benefits to it, but that downside….I know, it’s very unlikely to happen. But I view nuclear power plants like idiots who ride motorcycles without helmets. Odds are nothing bad will happen, but when it does, oh boy!
Keith Law: We could start by, say, not building nuclear power plants on or near fault lines or on coasts that might be hit by tsunamis. The history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions, not really problems with nuclear power per se.

Jim P (TN): Do you think the success of BVW will lead to other clubs adopting the Mets model?
Keith Law: (spits out coffee)

Brent: Do you own an electric guitar as well?
Keith Law: Yep, a strat I’ve had for probably 20 years.

Josh: You watch (or watching) The Magicians show? My wife and I enjoyed the books, but the show seems much…lighter?
Keith Law: It’s on my “maybe some day” list. Loved the books.

Sean: Has Happy Fun Ball helped certain hitters more than others?
Keith Law: Of course it has, but I don’t think we really know who it’s helped more/most and won’t until the ball changes back – and it will. I don’t know what the baseball will be like in 2020, but I feel confident it won’t be the same as it was in 2019.

Joey: Hi Keith. As a recent divorcee who’s daughter has really taken to my new sig other, congrats. Moving on is always hard and having a child makes it scarier. But I’m glad you and your daughter nailed the landing.
Keith Law: Thank you. My daughter has really made me proud with how well she’s handled everything and how much maturity she’s shown in a situation where it would be perfectly fair and understandable for her to act like a kid, which she still is.

Sean: For anyone that thinks that the “downside” of nuclear power (catastrophic failure) makes it far worse than the benefits it provides, just retort with airplanes. Modern engineering is so ridiculously rigorous and robust that failures at a nuclear power plant require some sort of human-induced flaw and multiple steps before anything catastrophic happens.
Keith Law: Good points. Also, the downside of fossil fuels is a lot worse than the downside of nuclear power plants, and the former happens merely by using those fuels, whereas the latter only happens when there’s an actual disaster. (Availability bias!)

Joey: Luis Urías deserves at least another yr or 2 right? I get the Padres want to move to contention, but trying to rush development on a 22 yr seems like a sure fire way to sabotage a rebuild
Keith Law: For sure.

Jason: Is this the real Jorge Soler?
Keith Law: I think so, allowing that the Happy Fun Ball may be helping too.

Will: What should the Reds do with Gausman this off season? He’ll likely command $10MM+ in arbitration.
Keith Law: I’d give him that chance. The upside is there, and while the odds keep slipping … if that clicks, you get way more than $10 million in value.

Dr. Bob: If you get any more pedals, then you’ll need a pedal board to mount them on, add a tuner, maybe a volume pedal, then a better amp, and soon you’ll be haunting Craigslist looking for a deal on a Les Paul. It grows.
Keith Law: Yeah I love the hobby but I’m not looking for ways to spend more money or even acquire more stuff.

Matt M: Does Alek Thomas make it to big leagues sometime in 2020? Is he the future Dbax table setting lead off hitter?
Keith Law: He’s 19 and played just 23 games above low-A. That does not put any player on a timetable to see the majors a year later.

Jordan: Shane Baz started off early in the year with good BB/9 but it progressively got worse as the year went on. Control/command has always been the question about him. And while his BB/9 was manageable, I saw a lot of publications instantly move him up into their top 100. But I don’t think he is there yet.
Keith Law: Whether he’s on a top 100 – he was on mine – is not a function of his BB/9 (use BB% instead, by the way), but of his stuff, delivery, and projection.

Oscar: To play devils advocate on the nuclear power discussion, you say “the history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions.” But bad decisions ARE going to happen, inevitably, so don’t we want the results of those bad decisions to, I dunno, not kill us all?
Keith Law: The results of fossil fuel usage will kill us all.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Do I resign Wheeler? At what price? Seems like he’ll get $15-$20m or likely more a year for multiple years from someone, but I don’t think I can replace what he’s done— and in NY…
Keith Law: Make the QO, maybe offer 2-3 years, but my guess is someone outbids the Wilpons.

Raul: Manuel Margot since July 1
Keith Law: .254/.347/.486. Not quite the player I envisioned: I would have guessed more AVG/OBP and less power. He doesn’t strike out much at all, which is one reason I haven’t given up on him.

Guest: At some point does MLB have to realize that broadcasting playoffs games on FS1–with its relatively limited availability (especially in hotels)–is detrimental to expanding the game’s profile?
Keith Law: Well, that would mean MLB taking less money in the short term to grow the game in the long term, and the entire history of the league dating back to the 19th century says they won’t do that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions. I should be back as usual for a chat next Thursday and a Periscope either Tuesday or Wednesday. Book details soon … just not quite yet. Thanks again!

Non-Fiction.

Non-Fiction‘s original French title, Doubles Vies (“Double Lives”), does a much better job of summarizing the story itself, which covers two couples — a publisher, an author, an actress, and a political consultant – who cope with aging and the changing circumstances of life by having lots of sex with people other than their partners. It’s a smart and witty film, punctuated by one of the funniest meta-jokes I’ve ever seen, that has a lot to say about the inevitability of change and our inept ways of handling it. It’s streaming on Hulu and available to rent on iTunes and amazon.

Juliette Binoche, who continues to churn out tremendous performances nearly 35 years into her career, is one of the stars of Non-Fiction, playing the television actress Selena, the star of a French police procedural called Collusion; she’s married to literary editor Alain (Guillaume Canet), who has a strained relationship with onetime star author Léonard (Vincent Macaigne), who is married to the political consultant Valérie (columnist and comedian Nora Hamzawi). Selena is having a lengthy affair with the frumpy and morose Léonard; Alain starts sleeping with his firm’s young new digital media director Laure (Christa Téret) at the first opportunity. Léonard’s last few novels haven’t sold well, and Alain thinks his newest is a dud, which Léonard takes about as well as you’d expect – but Valérie has no sympathy for him and doesn’t even seem to like him very much. Meanwhile, Alain’s professional world is facing the upheaval of e-books and audiobooks as well as the changing demographics of fiction readership, while Selena grapples with the choice of continuing on a show that has made her successful but is professionally unfulfilling.

These are first-world problems, to be sure, but they are also somewhat universal at this point. Although writer/director Oliver Assayas focused the script on the massive shifts in the publishing world – which braced for a paradigm change that would lead readers to eschew dead trees for e-books, only to see readers gravitate back to physical books – technology is leading to similar creative destructions in lots of industries, changing the entire structure of employment and the relationships workers have to their employers. What hits Alain just at work over the course of the film could stand in for any industry.

The serial infidelities in the movie are a bit harder to grasp on a metaphorical level, although they provide a good bit of the humor. Selena seems broken up by the possibility that Alain is having an affair, but we find out shortly afterwards that she’s having one too – and it’s been going on for years. There’s a comic tension throughout as you wait to see if any of the spouses might figure out what’s going on and in watching various characters squirm when they might be caught, but understanding why Alain, married to a gorgeous and successful actress who seems to appreciate art and literature, chases a much younger woman just because she’s there is at least more opaque. Is it a reaction to change by regressing into adolescent behaviors? Similarly, if Selena is a significant TV star, why is her longtime affair – one in which she appears to have no emotional investment – with the mopey Léonard, a rather stereotypical modernist author who says he rejects materialism and tries to hold himself aloof from criticism that he obviously can’t bring himself to ignore?

For plot and purpose, Non-Fiction works far better out of the bedroom. Even the lengthy discussions of art for art’s sake, with somewhat obvious complaints like how these young kids don’t read any more, work well as parallels to the natural human inclination to romanticize the past and rationalize the status quo when we’re faced with the discomfort of change. (To borrow and slightly alter a line from Spike Milligan: I don’t fear change. I just don’t want to be there when it happens.) These four people are all adrift and facing some kind of imminent upheaval at work, with the threat of the same at home, and mostly react in similar ways, driven to poor decisions by uncertainty and doubt … like most adults confronted with the potential for significant changes at work or at home.

Binoche is wonderful, as always, although her character is more unlikeable than many roles she’s had before; Selena is a bit full of herself, especially about her job, and thinks nothing of advocating for her paramour to her own husband. Canet has the larger role, as we see so much more of him at work, and the subplot around his publisher is more significant than that around Selena’s TV show or Valérie’s work for a leftist candidate (a rather neglected side story). Macaigne is fine as the aloof, self-absorbed author, but I found zero reason to think that Selena would want a long-term affair with him, and the relationship between Léonard and Valérie is almost as befuddling.

Non-Fiction may also have clicked for me more than it would for many viewers – I’m not that much younger than these characters, am divorced, and work in a similar field that is also going through a lengthy period of tectonic-type changes. So much of the dialogue, which is fast-moving despite the weight of what Assayas wants to say, is insightful about facing changes as you get older that I found most of the film’s non-adultery content resonated with me. And that metajoke near the end is just (chef’s kiss).

Stick to baseball, 9/7/19.

I had one ESPN+ piece this week, looking at the best or most interesting September prospect callups. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

For Paste, I reviewed Planet, a simple tile-laying game where you place those tiles on your own polyhedron planet, so you get to hold the whole world in your hands.

Now that this piece is done and I’ve already filed my ESPN column for next week (Prospect of the Year), I’ll work on my next email newsletter. You can sign up for free any time.

I’m selling off some of my board games, and once again I’m donating all proceeds to the Food Bank of Delaware. You can see the games I’m selling here. Thanks to those of you who’ve already bought some of my games, I’ve donated over $330 to the Food Bank.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 9/5/19.

ESPN+ subscribers can see my column on prospects who’ve gotten the call this September.

Keith Law: I’m being held up by invisible men. Klawchat.

JR: If Alonso was having this type of season 20 years ago (or even 10) would he be a lock for NL MVP (or at least top 3 candidate) solely based on the fact he leads MLB in HRs (assume for purposes of my question he does end up as league leader)
Keith Law: Probably, given how voters thought 20 years ago. I’m not sorry that this has changed.

Joey: Is Wil Myers toast?
Keith Law: Seems dramatic … but he’s been so bad for just about two full years now I don’t see any reason to forecast an improvement.

Guest: Klaw, Thanks for the chats. Appreciate your time and insights. any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?
Keith Law: Saw him pitch on Sunday (as those of you who follow my mostly non-baseball Instagram account @mrkeithlaw know) and he was 96-100 for six innings with a plus slider and below-average changeup. It’s not a great delivery for a starter, and every scout I’ve asked about him has said they wrote him up as a high-leverage reliever. I think I’d feel better saying he could end up a Hader/Aroldis type out of the pen than saying he could be a mid-rotation stater.

addoeh: Why is the President more concerned about a state Dorian won’t come within a couple hundred miles of than states and territories and it has/will hit?
Keith Law: Might have to do with the electoral map.

Joe: Would you give Hunter Harvey another chance to start or just keep him in the pen?
Keith Law: I can’t see him starting after all those injuries and the extreme cross-body delivery he adopted back in low minors.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for doing these chats. I fail to see the logic of the opener, especially when they are followed by a bulk pitcher. Why use a good reliever in the first inning, followed by a bulk guy. It seems more logical to use the good reliever late in the game when there are fewer innings to recover from giving up a run. Please help me understand. Thanks!
Keith Law: The logic is that the first inning is the one inning where you’re guaranteed to face your opponent’s best hitters (1-2-3). You seldom get such an opportunity to line up your most effective one-inning arm against the best hitters in the other team’s lineup.

BigDaddeh: Is the prospect dream over for Florial?
Keith Law: No. I’ve never ranked him that highly because his pitch recognition is so bad, but you can also point to his youth and the fact that he’s had two significant injuries (hamate and wrist) in the last two years that probably hurt his performance as well.

Ben: What has Lux done differently to his game this season? It can’t be just the ball.
Keith Law: Just physical development, as far as I can tell.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw.

Benyamin Bailey is putting up an interesting .324/.477/.454 slash line in rookie ball as a 17 year old, with a 21% walk rate (with a 16% K rate). I’m having a hard time finding much info on him. What can you tell me about him? Is he a legit prospect? Thank You.
Keith Law: He’s not in rookie ball – he’s in the DSL, which is a step below that. I don’t pay any attention to stats there because the level of competition is so uneven.

mike sixel: Berrios seems to be fading again this year. A: Is he, or is it random? B: what, if anything, can be done about it (this year or next)? thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t realize how pronounced his career splits were by time of year – he’s clearly less effective in August and September, at least. Better question for the Twins people, obviously, who might have a better handle on any biomechanical indicators, but I would at least ask if using him less early in the season would help him hold his performance later.

Ben: Your thoughts on the AFL beginning almost a full month earlier than usual?
Keith Law: I understand why they did it: teams didn’t like shutting pitching prospects down for almost a month and then having them ramp back up to pitch in the AFL. That’s a good reason. But it sucks for just about every other stakeholder, including scouts – and most teams seem to value the scouting reports they get from that environment.

barbeach: Thanks as always for doing these chats. This week was another reminder that Brodie’s bullpen construction borders on malpractice. Is there anyone in that group with a real future?
Keith Law: First, I don’t think Diaz is toast; I’d bet on some regression to the mean next year, and I wonder if the altered baseball is helping make his slider so ineffective. Lugo’s been good and I think he’ll continue to be so. I think guys like Gsellman and Sewald are capable back-end relievers. It’s not a good group on the whole, but the Mets aren’t starting from scratch in 2020 either.

James: Last week the Royals bunted for a single, sac bunted which resulted in an error, then sac bunted again which also resulted in an error. The announcers talked about the great strategy. Then an assistant to the GM said that one of the stats that he thinks is UNDERAPPRECIATED is the RBI because not everyone can drive a guy in from second base with two outs.
Keith Law: Well, this might explain why they’re 13th in runs scored.
Keith Law: By the way, did I see a rumor that their new owner wants to extend Moore’s contract? Is that even possible?

BigDaddeh: The Rangers have been playing Solak at 3rd base. Even good shifting can’t hide the glove, right?
Keith Law: I’d agree with you on that.

J.P.: Do you concur with the decision not to call up Robert?
Keith Law: I understand it. The flip side is that he’s getting away with stuff in AAA that major-league pitchers will exploit, and for him to keep developing he has to come to the majors.

PA Prospects: Any chance Spencer Howard can legitimately help the Phillies over the final 3 weeks, or not worth the risk of health or mental issues if not ready?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea at all. I wonder if they’ll call him up when Reading is done, and thus have him skip the AFL.

Mark: Anthony Rendon is really turning on the Jets towards the end of the season.Does he enter into the MVP discussion in the N.L ?
Keith Law: His stats are virtually indistinguishable from Bellinger’s and he’s not far behind Yelich. He should already have been in the MVP discussion, if we’re discussing serious, worthy candidates. I don’t know if voters have already made up their minds though.

Sedona: Will Canario be in consideration for Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I don’t know for sure but right now would say probably not.

James: Did you play Tapestry and do a write up of it?
Keith Law: The game isn’t out yet. My review copy should be here in a few weeks, and I will review it. That’s a priority game for me even though my review queue is at least a dozen titles long (just for Paste etc., not counting games I’ll review on the dish).

Tim: Is there a plan with Vlad Guitierez usage next year? He was dominant last month as a starter. 10-15 starts for the Reds next year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long-term.

Chris: So…Good Eats: The Return. Must-see TV for you?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: What do you make of James Karinchak? Clearly he’s not a viable major league pitcher with his current walk rate, but the K rate is so absurd, is there possibly anything to dream on?
Keith Law: Just a novelty until he stops walking guys. Relievers sometimes turn that corner without warning – look at Kimbrel’s walk rates in the minors – but I have never thought we know which guys will do so.

Dana: I know the BABIP is unsustainable, but Bryan Reynolds has been incredible and he hit everywhere he’s been. Why was he never a top prospect?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit everywhere he’s been. He only slugged about .450 between high-A and double-A and was a touch old for both levels. Bear in mind I ranked him as a first-rounder out of college, so I thought those years were disappointing, but I also couldn’t rank him highly when he showed so little power for a corner OF.

Johnny Asel: What is wrong with Trevor Bauer this year?
Keith Law: Last year was the outlier.

JG: Should the Twins have concern about Buxton’s health going forward? Royce Lewis did play CF earlier this week…
Keith Law: Lewis can’t play SS. He has to move somewhere and CF makes the best use of his skills. I think that’s independent of Buxton’s injury history, but if BB doesn’t show he can stay healthy Lewis could usurp him.

Nick P: Have you read Fearless by Eric Blehm? Phenomenal read!
Keith Law: No, not really my genre.

Andy: Should the Tigers DFA Cabrera in the offseason? I’m not sure his spot on the major league roster is actually hurting the team long term?
Keith Law: I see 0% chance of that happening.

Nick P: Who is more valuable, Mike Soroka or Acuna Jr?
Keith Law: Acuna Jr. Not close.

Aaron G: Are the Astros the only (postseason) team with more than two starters that could reasonably get 3+ times through the order with any degree of confidence? I guess the Nats also fit that description, but that seems about it.
Keith Law: At a glance, those two are it.

mike: your weekly Biggio question, Defence is below average, good eye – seems to have average power but he’s nothing for a Jays fan to be excited about. Maybe a utility type bench guy right
Keith Law: Not even since he has no position. I enjoyed one Jays fan trying to troll me when Biggio had one good game, though. Stay dim.

Jubilant Earl: Last year, around this time, I asked if Christian McCafferey was going to be a top 5 RB in PPR. You’re response was terse; “what sport is that?” I need to know this year: will Aaron Jones be a top 5 RB in PPR?
Keith Law: Not close. Saquon, Elliott, the aforementioned McCaffrey, Kamara, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Gurley, Josh Jacobs … is Jones even top ten?

Hank: Has the Fernando Rodney trade lottery ticket Dakota Chalmers piqued your interest at all to follow in the AFL?
Keith Law: It’ll be interesting to see him but his delivery was pretty rough before the TJ. Maybe a two-pitch reliever?

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Rick: Hi Keith, Do any teams use RBI’s to judge players anymore. I sure hope not. Yet you will hear GM’s mention a players RBI’s many times Is the GM usually doing that because that is what the fans want to hear?
Keith Law: Probably yes, and because it’s easy (or lazy) to do so. But I don’t think any GMs still actively use RBI.

Hank: If Twins make a move for a frontline pitcher in the offseason, who would you rather hold on to: Kiriloff or Larnach?
Keith Law: Keep Kirilloff. I think he’s a superstar. Shame he was also pulled from the AFL.

Mr. Bergstrom: Hi Keith: would it make sense for MLB to return to a 154 game schedule in order to introduce another round of playoffs? Is there any reason to not do it?
Keith Law: Yes. One reason is that it takes 8 games (4 home games) away from ~18 of the teams. The other reason is that I fucking hate it.

Buscon Bob: Carlos Colemaneres, Venezualen SS, Top 2020 IFA?
Keith Law: No clue. Better question for Jesse Sanchez or my friends at Fangraphs.

Jon: Thank you for the chats Klaw. Thoughts on Joey Cantillo’s future? I know the velo isn’t there but it seems deceptive. Thanks
Keith Law: Correct, deception over stuff. Has value, hard to project starter.

Jared: Do you think James Karinchak will be closing for Cleveland by early 2020?
Keith Law: No. See above.

Mitch: What’s Patrick Sandoval’s ceiling? Mid rotation starter?
Keith Law: More back end.

Eric: fun stat:

In 2007, a 42-year-old Barry Bonds had a 1.045 OPS, and couldn’t find a job the next year because of reasons.

In the 12 years since, only 12 players have eclipsed that mark.
Keith Law: NO COLLUSION!

JG: Would you consider this a “bounce-back” year for Nick Gordon? Any improvement in his stock?
Keith Law: No. League-average OBP and below-average SLG while repeating the league.

Connor: Is Framber Valdez going to be anything more than a back end starter? That command just seems poor
Keith Law: Below-average for a starter, likely a reliever.

Jordan: I find it absolutely ridiculous that some Mets fans don’t care about losing Kelenic because he’s “just a prospect” and then they allude to guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Do they not understand that the deal was bad no matter how Kelenic turns out because Van Wagenen completely undervalued him in a trade for a reliever, the most volatile position in the sport? Diaz posting a 5+ ERA this year is just the cherry on top of an already terrible deal.
Keith Law: Exactly. And he also undervalued Dunn. And overvalued the guys he got. It reeked of a GM in over his head, trying to make a big splash in his first week on the job, and DiPoto saw an easy mark.

Mike: Do you see a guy like Brujan looking like a candidate to substantially boost his hitting profile once he moves up to AAA/MLB playing with the juiced ball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t really think the premise works – everyone hits better with this juiced ball.

Max: So, Jack Flaherty looks like an ace in his last 10 or so starts. Could he become that? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: I think I’d previously said #2 for him and would stick with that, but I’m not arguing. He’s good. Harvard-Westlake should produce more pitchers.

Max: Does Miguel Vargas have the potential to be the next great Dodgers position prospect?
Keith Law: He is a good prospect. The hyperbolic questions don’t really help, though.

Matthew: Tarik Skubal seems like a pop-up guy to a degree. His Double-A stats are pretty fancy though. Might he have a mid-rotation ceiling?
Keith Law: Answered last week. Real prospect, not a pop-up guy.

JR: Who’s the favorite right now for NY Cy Young?
Keith Law: DeGrom. Scherzer leads him in fWAR but DeGrom’s innings lead and counting stats will probably carry the day.

Eric: hey keith, can i go ahead and borrow some guns? a us representative said it’s cool to do that willy nilly.
Keith Law: Yep. Also drive my car. Doesn’t matter if you have a license.

Pete: Will Smith LAD is good but he’s playing over his head right now right? Is the ceiling a .350 OBP/30 hr bat?
Keith Law: More OBP. Maybe 25 HR but that’s quibbling.

Buscon Bob: Are you surprised more about Austin Meadows nearing 30 HRs or Travis d’Arnaud reaching 20?
Keith Law: Literally nothing surprises me with HR totals.

addoeh: The Cubs seem to have such an patchy record with developing their position players in the majors. Baez and Contreras have improved over time, but Almora, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, and Happ have either stayed the same or regressed. Are these outcomes about what one would expect or is it a concern?
Keith Law: Throw Russell out, not literally but … okay, well maybe literally. The others are all kind of surprising to me especially Almora. Thought he’d at least hit for empty average.

Matt: Give me some optimism here Keith, spencer Howard, how high is his ceiling? Did the Phillies finally find a gem in the draft with him?
Keith Law: See my post on him from last week.

ARod: You definitely would rather have a 2-run lead than a 13-run lead because even leads are gold.
Keith Law: He said that two straight weeks. It’s like he heard “sabermetrics” and googled “numerology.”

HH: If you had the choice between expanded rosters in September (as now) or expanded rosters in April, what would you prefer? I kinda think the latter would be more fun, and less disruptive to playoff races.
Keith Law: Yep and I think it would allow for slightly shorter spring training too, which I believe most players would favor.

Joey Joe Joe: Are you still in on Jakson Reetz? Seems to have put it together this year.
Keith Law: 23 repeating high-A. Wasn’t good when I saw him in the first half. Really need to see him do it at a higher level to buy in.

Stephen: I had submitted my question too late on Friday, so i will try it here: How would you rate the drafting decisions of Damon Oppenheimer over the last 4 or so years? in 2015 he drafted James Kaprielian & Kyle Holder while skipping over players like “Walker Buehler” “Austin Riley” not qbing from a distant, I just wonder if a team that will always be drafting low it is imperative that they hit on those picks. DO seems to miss more often. 2016 Blake Rutherford over so many others with more upside
Keith Law: Buehler needed TJ at the time and that may be why they passed – and why they took the same risk on Clarke Schmidt two years later. They’ve also found a lot of value lower in the draft.

Kevin: What is the bail amount set on Solar for murdering that baseball last night ?
Keith Law: That was a monster shot with any baseball. I go back and forth on how much of his breakout to buy, given how power-centric it is.

Ben: If you had only two nights in Chicago where would you eat for dinner those two nights?
Keith Law: Monteverde and Purple Pig.

romorr: DL Hall had a good season in A+ ball. The walks are a worry to me, but all I see is the stat line. Do you think it is a worry, or something fixable? Keeping him in A+ to work it out seems the smart play for 2020, right?
Keith Law: Great athlete with good delivery. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t improve.

Dylan: You say Brailyn Marquez has a below average changeup and is likely a reliever. But if I take this sharpie and add a few lines to his scouting report, he becomes a future #1 starter.
Keith Law: Yes, Mr. President. The truth is whatever you want it to be.

Keith: What is your POV on how teams should be handling high school pitchers in their first year after the draft? What were the varying approaches that different orgs took, and what are the pros and cons of each?
Keith Law: Other than being conservative with in-game pitch counts, which we know is a good idea, I think teams are mostly just guessing at how to keep them healthy.

romorr: Santander has been a bright spot for the Orioles this year, it’s not a seasons worth of ABs, but the results are there. Think he can be a viable starter in RF for 150+ games a year? I remember he wasn’t a nothing prospect, just lots of injuries.
Keith Law: Yeah I’m buying that one. Average regular.

Jerry: Thoughts on the Astros/Verlander flap with the Detroit reporter. I found it disappointing that the Astros and Verlander were that petty. One of the Astros former beat writers said on Twitter that this wasn’t the first time they’ve done something like that.
Keith Law: Astros were completely in the wrong, as was Verlander. Unequivocally so. If there’s an issue with the writer, it has to be handled at another time. The team is obligated to respect his credential.

jack: Can Alec Bohm be a competent 3rd baseman for a few years? Until the NL implements the dh
Keith Law: If “competent” means average, no. If it means a 45, yes.

JR: when you do the podcast with Buster, do you know what questions he will be asking you in advance so you can prepare? Or just shooting from the hip?
Keith Law: He tells me a few things before we start recording but that’s it. I think I do better when it’s extempore anyway.

John O’Reily: What is Roasny Contreras best case scenario
Keith Law: Tightens the CB and becomes a #3 starter.

Robert: Luis Basabe has had a better second half. Could some of his issues in the first half be related to the broken hamate? Is he a candidate for a bounceback in 2020?
Keith Law: I believe all of this is true.

Dice Throne: Have you played any of the games in the Dice Throne series? Hearing good things and wondering what you think
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Chad: Does Seager or Lux profile better as a shortstop going forward?
Keith Law: Lux, for me.

SK: So we’re now two years into Max Kepler hitting lefties as well as he hits righties. Considering how bad he was against lefties earlier in his career, is this sustainable?
Keith Law: I’m in. Now MLB needs to get his face on billboards all across Europe.

Buscon Bob: With the FSL playoffs cancelled, should Wander Franco be given a taste of AA?
Keith Law: Why not? I see no downside.

Ira: Aren’t the Yankees best served letting Didi walk and moving Torres to shortstop and using that money on a front line starter? I assume Didi will want long term deal.
Keith Law: I would.

Dan: Are there any literary classics like 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird, Catch 22, etc. that you make a point to read every so often just to make sure they’re always fresh in your mind?
Keith Law: No, just because there are too many other books I want to read.

Sarah: This was reported in late June – given the year he’s had, do you think it explains Bauer’s struggles? “On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.”
Keith Law: Of course, yes, it’s the reed.

Andy: I must have missed all the articles about how attendance plummeted for the White Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers. I was told (by others) that was the only possible outcome of extending the netting.
Keith Law: Yes, please send me those links.

Dallas: Do you have a preference between DRS and UZR? They can be so different for example Bogaerts is -20 DRS but 1.8 UZR; Rosario is similar -14 DRS -1.8 UZR?
Keith Law: I look at both, but prefer UZR slightly.

Henry: Your cat was outstanding on Baseball Tonight a a couple of weeks ago. Can’t wait for your new book.
Keith Law: He made a real racket this morning and I have no idea why. Thanks.

Guest: Small sample size for Aristides Aquino? Legit or somewhere in the middle?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the middle.

Scherzer’s Third Eye Color: With the likely Cole departure, and A’s getting Manaea,Puk, Luzardo and Montas back in the rotation. And a full season of Murphy at catcher, can A’s challenge Houston for the division in 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t necessarily buy that rotation. All four have had injury issues this year. Three have had multiple injuries in their careers. Montas never projected as a starter for me. How many total starts do you think the A’s get from that quartet next year? 75?

Anchen: Phillies fans seem to mostly hate Gabe Kapler at least as their manager. Do you have any views on him either on field decision making or off field? Example, he has for the most part not benched players who didn’t hustle. What do you think of the general cost/benefit of benching a player for something like that?
Keith Law: I don’t quite get the vitriol directed at him – my gut says that a lot of it is “he’s different, so we don’t like him.” He’s made good moves and bad moves, been good for some players and maybe not good for others, but I think he’s been a net positive, and I don’t blame him for the utter implosion of their opening day bullpen.

JM: If Rendon walks, can Kieboom play 140 effective games at 2nd or 3rd in 2020?
Keith Law: It’s an enormous drop in production. I think he needs to play 2b over 3b.

Jason: Can you name the one prospect whose stock has increased the most this season, and one whose stock has dropped the most?
Keith Law: Not right now. Maybe in December or January when I’ve taken a thorough look at everyone.

Dallas: Sheldon Neuse’s BP defensive rate stat FRAA is very good at 3B while in Triple-A; could he start at 3B for other teams giving Oakland a nice trade piece?
Keith Law: I don’t use that stat. Having seen him in the low minors, I think he could be average at third, probably the same at second.

Vincent Adultman: Have you traveled to Japan and how long of a stay would you recommend for a first time visiter?
Keith Law: Never been. Would love to go, for work or tourism.

romorr: Orioles have been bad, no denying. But this is a good bad right, giving guys playing time to see if anything sticks. Maybe find some value to build, or trade.
Keith Law: Yes. Elias et al inherited a very weak foundation.

Mike: Thoughts on Braxton Garrett this year? Any chance he’s going to crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he on my midseason top 50? He was a top 50 prospect before the injury – chance for plus command with an average fastball and plus breaking ball. Stuff is definitely back.

Ryan: Pavin Smith has had a very good season, and he really turned it up in the last couple of months. Have you heard about anything he may have done to improve in the second half? Thank you!
Keith Law: He’s had an okay season, for a first baseman. Still nowhere near enough power.

Matthew: Since acquiring Carson Kelly, has the door closed on Daulton Varsho as a catcher? Might he be a part-time backup?
Keith Law: Other teams doubted Varsho would stay at C before the trade, between his own defensive issues and the desire to get a bat/athlete like him to another position. So I think he moves permanently in the next 12 months.

A. person: First trip to NY in a few weeks. Staying in Manhattan. What should we eat?
Keith Law: I mean, it would depend entirely on what you like to eat. NYC has just about everything. You could go full New York and focus on pizza and bagels and Jewish and Italian-American food … but you could also take advantage of the cornucopia of cuisines available in the city’s innumerable ethnic communities.

Chris: Logan Gilbert seems to have answered most of the doubts some had about him at draft time. Is a #2 starter too lofty of a projection?
Keith Law: It’s within reach.

Brett: Do you ever wear hats? You strike me as someone who doesn’t wear hats.
Keith Law: If I’m at a game I almost always have a hat on.

Adam: Thoughts on the season Gabriel Arias is having?
Keith Law: So young for high-A … glad to see the good contact, but the low walk rate/moderately high K rate aren’t great. I hold to the fact that he’s just 19 in high-A, though.

Bill: Hey Keith. What was the most recent election in which you voted for a Republican?
Keith Law: 2004, I think?
Keith Law: Actually I may have voted for one or two downballot in 2008, when I lived in Massachusetts and there often weren’t two candidates listed for certain offices.

Jeremy B: Keith, no real question, just a thank you for suggesting Juniper & Ivy in past chats. Was in SD two weeks ago. Not sure I’ve ever had a meal that good. Thanks again
Keith Law: I haven’t been in 2+ years but am going in December come hell or high water. It’s one of the best restaurants in the country.

Jason: How easy is it to teach a group of people to play Everdell and to understand the game quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s easy to start. The game is structured in a way that the beginning round is simple, and the complexity increases as you go along, so you’re not just thrown to the wolves in round one.

Sam W : RE- Cy young. With the way he’s pitched the last two months and the cardinals ascent to the top of the division seemingly in conjunction, do you think that Jack Flaherty should be in the conversation with seemingly no clear front runner at the moment.
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This is a full-season award, not a last-two-months award.

Eric: while it’s more fun to make drawing on a hurricane map the news cycle for four stupid days, let’s not forget that there are children being locked up on our border and families being cruley separated every day. this should never be out of the news cycle as long as it is happening.
Keith Law: And efforts to legislate trans people out of existence. And rollbacks of environmental regulations that threaten our water supply, air quality, and global climate. And persistent attacks on women’s rights. And now the gutting of funds for our armed forces. And just wait until the next epidemic hits and we’re underfunded or just unwilling to send help.

Guest: Is Derek Hill’s glove still good enough to make him an everyday starter in Detroit?
Keith Law: He’s at least a half-grade of bat from that. The glove/speed make him a bench piece.

Aaron: What kind of upside do you think Simeon Woods has? Top of the rotation potential?
Keith Law: Hah, no, not close. Wrote him up here.

Chris (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — No question, just wanted to say thanks for all the great columns, chats, etc. I look forward to reading them every week. When you write your next book maybe you could consider a book signing in the Raleigh/Cary area. It would give you an excuse to partake in some of the food options here…
Keith Law: It’s on my personal short list of places where I didn’t do signings last time but would love to hit this time.

Mike: Re: Garrett – would you believe I looked at the 2019 and 2018 lists, but not the midseason? Apologies Keith – love the chats!
Keith Law: Thanks, I was unsure if I’d included him when you asked.

Mike: Favorite Minneapolis restaurant?
Keith Law: Revival.

Paul: I appreciate you keeping us up to date on your varied interests. What do you do to stay active? Are you into Tennis, Golf or anything like that?
Keith Law: I bike around the neighborhood in the spring and fall, usually with my daughter, and go to the gym in the winter. Never cared for golf. Would play tennis but am terrible at it.

Mark: So you went to Jamaica and stayed on the resort with a bunch of white people?
Keith Law: Good try, but no, the guests were mixed, whether by race or national origin. The only thing we all had in common was that we were all adults.

Kendra: You need to try Cloak and Petal and King and Queen Cantina in SD. Both just up the street from J&I. Also Craft and Commerce for drinks. And there’s a Salt and Straw there too. Really a great food city.
Keith Law: Excellent. I think I tried C&C once a few years ago. Thank you.

Jason: I’m very enthused by the start both Will Smith and Gavin Lux have gotten off to, but would you have traded one or both for a lockdown Closer like Vazquez knowing that it’s awfully tough to get to the World Series 2 yrs in a row, let alone 3x
Keith Law: No.

GOTCHA: why do people come to your chat to try to get you, like dumb mark?
Keith Law: It’s one dumb guy, pretty much every week. He doesn’t learn.

Brett: Are you an Apple Watch guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. I need fewer devices, not more.

Nick: When you say that a pitcher could be a 3 is that like Tanaka? Eduardo Rodriguez? The rotation is so different for each team a comp would be helpful.
Keith Law: I have two definitions I try to use for that. One is that there are roughly 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, 30 #2s, 30 #3s, etc. The other is that a #3 starter should be league-average, and you work outward from there. Both are a bit wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey but you get the gist.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m hoping to resume semi-regular periscopes now that the season is winding down, and my email newsletter should become more regular too. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Thanks again!

Beer in the Snooker Club.

When I read My Uncle Napoleon back in March, longtime reader John Liotta suggested in a comment that I check out Waguih Ghali’s one novel, Beer in the Snooker Club, which he said was an analogous work set in Egypt rather than Iran. It is similar, for sure, perhaps less overtly funny and more satirical, replacing the slapstick of the Iranian novel with a more biting take on the Egyptian independence movement’s failure to provide its people with freedom.

Ram, the novel’s protagonist, and his friend-but-occasional-nemesis Font find themselves in a social and political purgatory in the wake of the Egyptian Revolution of 1952, which overthrew King Farouk but replaced him with a military dictatorship that implemented its own repressive policies. The withdrawal of the English colonial presence has upended the social order and put Egyptian Copts in an uncertain position where the ruling Muslim authorities threaten their safety while the formerly open English borders have closed. In this context, Ram and Font recall their previous times in London, Ram’s wealthy aunt ‘donates’ her land to the poor while actually selling it to fellaheen (the farmer class), and Ram finds his affections torn between the wealthy Jewish woman Edna (off limits due to her background and class) and the also wealthy but less interesting Egyptian girl Didi.

There’s something overtly feckless and desultory about the entire novel, focused on Ram’s own aimlessness but infecting the entire setting, as if Ghali took the existentialism of Camus or Sartre and married it with the biting parody of Heller or Bulgakov. Ram’s slow realization that la plus ça change leads him to a state of ambition catatonia; he’s stuck, regardless of what he does, and if anything his prospects are worsening because of circumstances entirely beyond his control. He can stay in Egypt, but he’ll be in a religious, ethnic, and political minority (he, like Ghali, is a small-c communist, although Ram’s commitment to its principles is tenuous) at home, yet can no longer move freely to England in the wake of the change of government and the English actions at the time in the Suez. (Egypt’s president after the coup, Gamel Abdul Nasser, nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956, leading Israel to invade the Gaza and the Sinai with support from England and France in a failed effort to reclaim the Canal from Egypt.) Ghali combines the ennui of Camus’ protagonists with the absurdity of political satires of that era, although in this case he’s sending up the Egyptian upper class more than the government itself, which he depicts in the background in a same-as-the-old-boss way.

Ram’s character is the one that Ghali develops over the course of the book beyond the arc of his story, as we see how he went from a somewhat idealistic youth, protected from many of the harsher aspects of life under the autocracy of the king, to a cynical adult who realizes that Nasser’s rule merely switched one set of inequalities for another, establishing a new ruling class to replace the one it upended – a situation that leaves Ram worse off than he was before. It’s bleak, yet not quite hopeless, although the bleakness may have won out in the end for Ghali, as he killed himself in 1969 after more than a decade of living in exile.

Next up: I just finished Elizabeth McCracken’s novel Bowlaway.

Music update, August 2019.

Some of it might be the presence of five Fridays in the month, but August was exceptionally strong for new music – I had over 30 tracks on the first draft of this list and ended up with 25 songs on a playlist that runs over 90 minutes. As always, if you can’t see the widget below, you can access the playlist directly here.

Ceremony – Further I Was. The punk-turned-new wave band’s latest album, In the Spirit World Now, dropped this month and is one of my top ten albums of the year, with this, the title track, and “Presaging the End” among the standout tracks.

The New Pornographers – The Surprise Knock. Two good new songs from TNP, with this and “Falling Down the Stairs of Your Smile,” ahead of their upcoming album In the Morse Code of Brake Lights, due out September 27th.

Ride – Jump Jet. The shoegaze pioneers’ second album in three years, This is Not a Safe Place, also came out last month, with this, “Future Love,” and “Repetition my favorite tracks from a solid if somewhat inconsistent record

Good Fuck – Flow Flow. If the goal was to create a band name that was both ungoogleable and something you couldn’t say on the radio, well, this is it … but damn is this song, a rec from reader and musician Andrew M., catchy as hell, between the guitar riff and the pulsing beat.

Vivian Girls – Something to Do. I never got into the Vivs or even heard much of their music before their breakup, but I’m enjoying their reunion so far, with loud and fast guitar tracks like this.

Artificial Pleasure/JYLDA – Boys Grow Up. An homage to classic New Wave with a strong dash of Britpop, here boosted by backup vocals by JYLDA. They’re quickly becoming one of my favorite bands.

Dry Cleaning – Magic of Meghan. I can’t decide if this band name is ridiculous, funny, obnoxious, or some combination thereof. Their sing-talking style is not really my thing, but this was the one track on their Sweet Princess EP that muted that aspect and let the music come through.

Declan McKenna – British Bombs. I did not like “Brazil” but I’m into this angry protest track over the UK’s role in the ongoing genocide in the Yemen.

Miss June – Anomaly. Power-pop from New Zealand who made a modest splash with “Best Girl” earlier this year and have followed it with Bad Luck Party, including this very mid-90s alternative radio kind of track.

Death Cab for Cutie – To the Ground. A slow-building, tense track from DCFC ahead of the release of The Blue EP on Saturday.

Sleater-Kinney – LOVE. Sleater-Kinney came back from a lengthy hiatus in 2015 with No Cities to Love, a rock album that was more polished than their previous efforts but still clearly their sound. Their new record The Center Won’t Hold was produced by St. Vincent, and it’s a departure, particularly in their use of electronic elements for the percussion; I’m not surprised Janet Weiss decided to leave the band after their “new direction.” Weiss was in a serious car accident in early August; fans donated over $60,000 to a GoFundMe to help pay her medical bills.

Two Door Cinema Club – Once. This might be my favorite 2DCC track ever; it certainly is the most immediately catchy of theirs.

John Coltrane – Blue World. This is the title track from a lost Coltrane album, recorded in 1964 for a French art film. I’m not a jazz aficionado by any means but if you asked me to put on a jazz album, it’d be Giant Steps.

Jorja Smith feat. Burna Boy – Be Honest. Smith’s Lost and Found was one of my favorite albums last year; this single, featuring the Nigerian rapper Burna Boy, might be a one-off but has already hit the top 20 in the UK, once again showing off the R&B singer’s strong, highly expressive voice.

Mike Epps with Big Boi and Sleepy Brown – We Goin’ Out. I only knew of Mike Epps as a comedian, but he’s released a few singles and even an album of rap songs; this song is just fun, bouncy like some mid-80s funk tracks, with the always-worthwhile Big Boi contributing a verse.

BROCKHAMPTON – BOY BYE. I haven’t checked out the whole album, Ginger, yet, but I’ve liked the two singles I’ve heard so far.

Floating Points – Last Bloom. More compelling, hypnotic, intelligent instrumental EDM from Floating Points ahead of his second album, Crush, due out in October.

Sleeper – More than I Do. I liked Sleeper quite a bit during their Britpop heyday, especially “Nice Guy Eddie” and “Statuesque,” and included the lead single from this album on my January playlist, but missed their comeback album The Modern Age, their first in 22 years. This track and that prior single both sound shockingly like their old stuff – amazing after a hiatus of that length.

Bat for Lashes – Jasmine. The always-compelling Natasha Khan releases her new album Lost Girls on September 6th.

Chelsea Wolfe – Be All Things. Wolfe’s weird blend of folk and metal caught my attention a few years ago with Hiss Spun, but the two lead singles ahead of Birth of Violence, due out September 13th, have eschewed the extreme metal aspects in favor of highly atmospheric vocals and slow-picked guitars.

Here Lies Man – Long Legs (Look Away). I generally like HLM’s style of blues-rock anyway, but this is very funky to the point that it feels like a dance track.

Sacred Reich – Salvation. Sacred Reich were always in the second tier of American thrash acts, never breaking through even to the extent of a Testament or Vio-lence. They reunited a few years ago, but their just-released Awakening is their first new album in 23 years, and first since the death of founding guitarist Jeff Martinek. It also won’t include their other founding guitarist Jason Rainey, who stepped down due to health reasons in February.

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard – Mars for the Rich. King Gizzard just released their second album of the year, this one full of old-school metal tracks ranging from bluesy, tracks like this to some outright thrash paeans.

Alcest – Protection. Alcest’s Kodama was my top metal album of 2016 for its blend of death metal and shoegaze; this first track from the French duo’s upcoming LP seems to drift further back into the metal direction after they veered harder into shoegaze with their previous two releases.

Insomnium – Valediction. The Finnish melodic death metallers return with a track that is highly melodic, almost catchy, while also bringing their trademark melancholic lyrics and strong guitar work.

Wolf Hall.

Hilary Mantel’s Wolf Hall won the British author her first Booker Prize, and the sequel, Bring Up the Bodies, earned her her second a few years later, with the two novels also becoming a six-part BBC miniseries under the former’s title. Wolf Hall is an achievement, an incredibly immersive, precise work of historical fiction that, unlike so many reimaginations that feel untrue to their times, puts the reader completely into the mode and culture of its time period. It’s a long go, at 600 pages and somewhat dense with scenes that set mood rather than advancing the plot, and Mantel has some stylistic quirks that made reading it more difficult than it needed to be, but on balance the journey was worth the effort.

Wolf Hall is the story of Thomas Cromwell, with a brief prologue on his youth but primarily focused on his time in the royal court, advising King Henry VIII during the period when Hank was trying to divorce his wife Katherine so he could marry Anne Boleyn. The hitch, of course, is that in the 1500s the Catholic Church did not recognize divorce – oh, wait, they don’t recognize it now, good job fellas – yet they were still the quasi-official faith of England until the King broke with them in 1533 over this very issue. These were fraught times politically; the price of exclusion or expulsion from the King’s circle could be imprisonment in the Tower of London or execution, often after torture. Cromwell was successful at navigating these waters, both in terms of saving his own hide (during the time covered by this novel, at least) and pushing his personal agendas, often involving personal enmities against the likes of Thomas More or Stephen Gardiner.

Mantel is operating in tricky territory because these are all real historical figures and there’s a fair amount of existing material on their actions, but she manages to create compelling, credible characters out of many of them, notably Cromwell and the King. Even secondary characters like More, who is insufferable in his own idiosyncratic way, become interesting in Mantel’s depiction because she gives them enough depth to make them more than stock figures. It’s really the Cromwell and Henry show, though, with Cromwell the clear lead for multiple reasons, not least is how Mantel takes his own personal sorrows – the death of his wife and several of his children in the still unknown epidemic of the “sweating sickness” that hit England in many summers over a 60-plus year period. (Wikipedia cites one hypothesis that it was a type of hantavirus, a form of infection largely unknown until an outbreak in the American Southwest 1993.) Mantel manages to incorporate that thoroughly into Cromwell’s character and inner monologues without relying on it too overtly or allowing it to become his dominant feature.

The book is long, by which I mean it’s long even for 600 pages – it’s wordy and Mantel tends towards Dickensian descriptions. There are scenes here that are entertaining enough to read but don’t need to be in the book; they’re superfluous to the plot, even though they fit with the rest of the material. Mantel also rarely refers to her protagonist by name; Cromwell is usually just “he,” or is quoted without any pronouns attached for attribution. If you see a “he” without a nearby name to which it might connect, then that’s Cromwell. It’s a clear stylistic choice on Mantel’s part, and I found it incredibly annoying, because no matter how often she did it I could not get to a point where I would read an unattached “he” and assume, by default, it was Cromwell. In scenes with multiple speakers – which occurs frequently – reading the dialogue without Cromwell’s quotes tagged with his name was like listening to an old vinyl record with a small scratch on it. I often had to re-read a few lines once I realized Cromwell was in the conversation and hadn’t put his quotes into his ‘voice’ in my imagination.

There’s also too much mention of various couplings and proposed marriages among tertiary characters, exacerbated by the similarities in so many of their names. Mantel’s hands were tied on the latter point, but I’m also not sure if we needed details on the various schemes and affairs among non-core characters – even Cromwell’s children and wards, whose acts may have affected him but didn’t matter to the plot of this particular book.

I’ll certainly continue to Bring Up the Bodies, especially since it’s shorter, since I enjoyed Mantel’s storytelling and her prose isn’t actually a problem even though it’s not the style I prefer. (The third book, which I assume will move directly on to the shortlist for the Booker Prize, is due out in March.) I’m curious if any of you have seen the miniseries, which boasted a very impressive cast and earned great reviews and multiple awards.

Next up: Elizabeth McCracken’s novel Bowlaway.

Stick to baseball, 8/31/19.

I had two ESPN+ posts this week, both scouting blogs: one on Clarke Schmidt, Matt Manning, Julio Rodriguez, and other Tigers/Nationals/Mariners/Royals/Blue Jays prospects; and one on Spencer Howard and other Phillies & Orioles prospects. I held a Klawchat on Wednesday.

I’m selling off some of my board games, and once again I’m donating all proceeds to the Food Bank of Delaware. You can see the games I’m selling here; I’m going to continue to add titles over the weekend and next week as I go through my collection. In case you missed it, I also went through all the games I saw and tried at Gen Con 2019 over at Paste.

Also, this was kind of fun – I got a mention in roast magazine’s Daily Coffee News, which used my review of Coffee Roaster to cover the game’s upcoming second edition.

I sent out my free email newsletter again on Friday night, but you can still sign up for free and get more personal writing from me.

And now, the links…

Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

Dr. Peter Hotez is a vaccinologist who works on developing vaccines for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), most of which affect developing countries and thus get little or no attention from affluent nations like the United States – although climate change will start to push some of the disease vectors (like mosquitoes) across our borders in time. He’s become a pro-vaccine activist in recent years because of the rising volume and, unfortunately, power of the American and British anti-vaccine movements, which have both begun exporting their bullshit to other countries, risking large epidemics in densely populated, emerging nations like the BRICS or the major countries of southeast Asia.

Dr. Hotez is also a father, and one of his children, Rachel, is an adult with autism spectrum disorder. He combines those two facets of his life, personal and professional, in his new book Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, in which he lays out the indisputable facts of vaccine safety. Weaving stories of Rachel’s life, from the first discovery that she had “pervasive developmental disorder, not otherwise specified,” a now deprecated diagnosis for autism spectrum disorder, through the challenges of her school years and the most recent attempts to find her a stable role in the work force, into stories from his own career, Hotez makes the impersonal personal, while also brooking no nonsense from those who would call him a “shill” or otherwise deny the truth that vaccines are safe and effective.

Hotez is now the chief of Baylor College of Medicine’s National School of Tropical Medicine, based in Houston, which itself ends up a big part of the family side of his story, portions of the book where he lays bare the incredible challenges of raising a child with autism spectrum disorder. Rachel’s case at least sounds like it is on the severe end of the spectrum, with learning disabilities, oppositional tendencies, and monotropist behaviors, although she’s not self-injurious and by the end of the book Hotez has at least some hope that she may have found a job opportunity through an individual coaching program provided via Goodwill. It’s often heartbreaking to read of the immense obstacles Hotez and his wife, Anne, whose voice is also in the book, have faced with Rachel in situations that parents of children without ASD take for granted or even experience as high points.

Of course, for me, the greater appeal of Hotez’s book going into it was his angry, evidence-based arguments against the denialist movement that has given us back the measles, a disease we’d eradicated in the United States twenty years ago, as well as surging cases of other dangerous, often fatal vaccine preventable diseases. Hotez just tweeted as I wrote this post to a Guardian article saying there have been 90,000 measles cases in Europe this year – a disease that is close to 100% prevented by vaccination. Hotez is quite patient in his explanations of how the anti-vaccine myths, notably the one that the MMR vaccine was associated with autism (it’s not, at all), first arose – in that case, because of a fraudulent study, since retracted, that cost the author his medical license – and why every such myth is wrong.

Vaccine denialists really don’t get anything right, and Hotez lays out the reasons in the specific case of the bogus claim that vaccines somehow lead to autism: It is a biological impossibility. Hotez’s book has the best lay explanation I’ve come across of the causes of autism, which, oh by the way, is already present before birth, and thus before an infant receives any vaccines. Autism is an expression of at least 65 already identified genes, as well as potentially hundreds of others, and the claim that a vaccine can cause autism is a sort of post hoc rationalization combined with complete science ignorance. That’s a large part of why these anti-vaccine claims keep changing – it’s the mercury, no it’s the alum, no it’s the number of vaccines administered at once, no it’s the formaldehyde. None of these factors causes autism, or any other disorder or condition. Vaccines can have mild side effects, including a fever and soreness at the injection site; in extremely rare cases, around one in a million, they can cause a serious reaction. Hotez points out that you are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be injured by a vaccine; meanwhile, ten people in the United States died of pertussis alone in 2018, four of them infants under the age of one, although the doubling of pertussis infection rates that occurred around 2012-14 has abated. He also has strong words for the anti-vaxxer lie that measles is a benign childhood infection, focusing in particular on SSPE, an invariably fatal aftereffect of a measles infection, hitting as many as 1 in every 600 people who survived a measles infection as an infant, that involves pervasive brain inflammation, loss of cognitive and motor functions, and death.

For his vaccine and general science advocacy, Hotez has been attacked online and off, with lunatics doxing him, calling his house and his work, and demonizing him on autism support websites (much as they’ve done with Paul Offit, co-inventor of the lifesaving rotavirus vaccine). It’s unsurprising from a movement that has no facts on its side, and that has recently begun targeting communities of color, including Somali immigrants in Minneapolis, with its anti-vaccine messaging, leading, of course, to a measles outbreak in that city (which could then be blamed on immigrants!). Hotez offers several potential policy proposals to combat the rising tide of anti-vaccine and general anti-science sentiment, including ending nonmedical exemptions to mandatory vaccination laws, encouraging scientists to engage in more public advocacy (even if it means they publish less), and increasing investment in disease prevention in developing countries. To his list, I would add improving basic science education in this country; we never learned about vaccines anywhere in my grade school experience, nor did anyone explain how the scientific process works, which would provide students with critical thinking skills that might help them reject the garbage science deniers peddle online. Hotez also has strong, necessary words for the media, who continue to discuss a vaccine-autism “controversy” where there is none, no more than there is controversy that the earth revolves around the sun, a view rather nicely summarized in this recent comic:

There’s a call to action for everyone in Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, from asking your state representatives to end all nonmedical exemptions to voting for pro-science candidates to speaking out publicly, regardless of your role, about the safety and necessity of vaccines. Within this story, Hotez also gives us the deeply personal side of being the parent of a child and now adult with autism, a reminder that there are maybe 3 million Americans with autism spectrum disorder and insufficient resources to support them. We can do better on all fronts; Hotez’s book should motivate many people to do so.

Next up: I’m going to finish Wolf Hall in the next 48 hours if it kills me.