Uncategorized — Page 78

→ August 31, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 8/31/19.

I had two ESPN+ posts this week, both scouting blogs: one on Clarke Schmidt, Matt Manning, Julio Rodriguez, and other Tigers/Nationals/Mariners/Royals/Blue Jays prospects; and one on Spencer Howard and other Phillies & Orioles prospects. I held a Klawchat on Wednesday.

I’m selling off some of my board games, and once again I’m donating all proceeds to the Food Bank of Delaware. You can see the games I’m selling here; I’m going to continue to add titles over the weekend and next week as I go through my collection. In case you missed it, I also went through all the games I saw and tried at Gen Con 2019 over at Paste.

Also, this was kind of fun – I got a mention in roast magazine’s Daily Coffee News, which used my review of Coffee Roaster to cover the game’s upcoming second edition.

I sent out my free email newsletter again on Friday night, but you can still sign up for free and get more personal writing from me.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: “I see this as part of a larger war against science-based reality.” The New Yorker goes very long on how the return of the measles is a sign of a war against science, and how authorities must combat the dangerous ideas that threaten our species.
The Washington Post spoke to Caitlan Coleman, who was held by the Taleban for five years with her husband, giving birth to three kids while there. She’s since revealed that her husband brought her into Afghanistan, against her wishes, only to see them kidnapped and held hostage, where he became physically and psychologically abusive.
Sesame Street is about to begin its 50th season; the New York Times looks at how the show uses music – and celebrity musicians – to teach viewers and create iconic moments. Recently, I introduced my girlfriend’s children to “Me Lost Me Cookie At the Disco;” they introduced me to “Me Want It (But Me Wait).”
The Guardian looks at how air conditioning is heating the planet as it cools our homes, which in turn requires more energy in a vicious cycle. Oddly absent is a mention of powering it via energy sources that do not contribute to climate change.
The Guardian‘s Lizzie Cernik looks at why some people cut off all ties to their parents, usually the result of toxic relationships that date back decades.
Garrett Martin, my editor at Paste, called out Dave Chappelle for his sensitivity and entitlement, as well as his transphobia and derision of the men Michael Jackson molested.
A deranged man, radicalized by anti-vaxxers preaching hate and violence online, assaulted California Sen. Richard Pan, the doctor who pushed through the state’s essential, life-saving law that ended nonmedical exemptions to childhood vaccinations.
Two Washington Post editorials worth reading: Why a primary challenger to Trump is a good thing, and why white evangelical leaders should be panicking over the demographic demise of their movement. I can’t think of a worse way to market religion than the way the evangelical movement has acted in the last two decades.
Indonesia is moving its capital to Borneo as Jakarta is sinking into the ground at a faster rate than any other city in the world.
My friend Eric Longenhagen looked at the most interesting position player-to-pitcher conversion projects in the minors right now, starting with San Diego’s Javier Guerra.
This story of a few fifth grade boys in Minnesota who took a bullied kid with special needs under their wing is the sweetest thing I saw in this week of terrible news.
Another story of kindness, although the route there goes right through hate and ignorance, comes from Ferial Pearson, who was targeted for being Muslim and for being queer while speaking to schools in Mullen, Nebraska.
One Night Ultimate Werewolf fans may be interested in pre-ordering the new expansion containing all bonus roles and tokens from smaller expansion packs released in the last few years.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, climate change, links, longreads, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ August 30, 2019
→ By keith

Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

Dr. Peter Hotez is a vaccinologist who works on developing vaccines for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), most of which affect developing countries and thus get little or no attention from affluent nations like the United States – although climate change will start to push some of the disease vectors (like mosquitoes) across our borders in time. He’s become a pro-vaccine activist in recent years because of the rising volume and, unfortunately, power of the American and British anti-vaccine movements, which have both begun exporting their bullshit to other countries, risking large epidemics in densely populated, emerging nations like the BRICS or the major countries of southeast Asia.

Dr. Hotez is also a father, and one of his children, Rachel, is an adult with autism spectrum disorder. He combines those two facets of his life, personal and professional, in his new book Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, in which he lays out the indisputable facts of vaccine safety. Weaving stories of Rachel’s life, from the first discovery that she had “pervasive developmental disorder, not otherwise specified,” a now deprecated diagnosis for autism spectrum disorder, through the challenges of her school years and the most recent attempts to find her a stable role in the work force, into stories from his own career, Hotez makes the impersonal personal, while also brooking no nonsense from those who would call him a “shill” or otherwise deny the truth that vaccines are safe and effective.

Hotez is now the chief of Baylor College of Medicine’s National School of Tropical Medicine, based in Houston, which itself ends up a big part of the family side of his story, portions of the book where he lays bare the incredible challenges of raising a child with autism spectrum disorder. Rachel’s case at least sounds like it is on the severe end of the spectrum, with learning disabilities, oppositional tendencies, and monotropist behaviors, although she’s not self-injurious and by the end of the book Hotez has at least some hope that she may have found a job opportunity through an individual coaching program provided via Goodwill. It’s often heartbreaking to read of the immense obstacles Hotez and his wife, Anne, whose voice is also in the book, have faced with Rachel in situations that parents of children without ASD take for granted or even experience as high points.

Of course, for me, the greater appeal of Hotez’s book going into it was his angry, evidence-based arguments against the denialist movement that has given us back the measles, a disease we’d eradicated in the United States twenty years ago, as well as surging cases of other dangerous, often fatal vaccine preventable diseases. Hotez just tweeted as I wrote this post to a Guardian article saying there have been 90,000 measles cases in Europe this year – a disease that is close to 100% prevented by vaccination. Hotez is quite patient in his explanations of how the anti-vaccine myths, notably the one that the MMR vaccine was associated with autism (it’s not, at all), first arose – in that case, because of a fraudulent study, since retracted, that cost the author his medical license – and why every such myth is wrong.

Vaccine denialists really don’t get anything right, and Hotez lays out the reasons in the specific case of the bogus claim that vaccines somehow lead to autism: It is a biological impossibility. Hotez’s book has the best lay explanation I’ve come across of the causes of autism, which, oh by the way, is already present before birth, and thus before an infant receives any vaccines. Autism is an expression of at least 65 already identified genes, as well as potentially hundreds of others, and the claim that a vaccine can cause autism is a sort of post hoc rationalization combined with complete science ignorance. That’s a large part of why these anti-vaccine claims keep changing – it’s the mercury, no it’s the alum, no it’s the number of vaccines administered at once, no it’s the formaldehyde. None of these factors causes autism, or any other disorder or condition. Vaccines can have mild side effects, including a fever and soreness at the injection site; in extremely rare cases, around one in a million, they can cause a serious reaction. Hotez points out that you are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be injured by a vaccine; meanwhile, ten people in the United States died of pertussis alone in 2018, four of them infants under the age of one, although the doubling of pertussis infection rates that occurred around 2012-14 has abated. He also has strong words for the anti-vaxxer lie that measles is a benign childhood infection, focusing in particular on SSPE, an invariably fatal aftereffect of a measles infection, hitting as many as 1 in every 600 people who survived a measles infection as an infant, that involves pervasive brain inflammation, loss of cognitive and motor functions, and death.

For his vaccine and general science advocacy, Hotez has been attacked online and off, with lunatics doxing him, calling his house and his work, and demonizing him on autism support websites (much as they’ve done with Paul Offit, co-inventor of the lifesaving rotavirus vaccine). It’s unsurprising from a movement that has no facts on its side, and that has recently begun targeting communities of color, including Somali immigrants in Minneapolis, with its anti-vaccine messaging, leading, of course, to a measles outbreak in that city (which could then be blamed on immigrants!). Hotez offers several potential policy proposals to combat the rising tide of anti-vaccine and general anti-science sentiment, including ending nonmedical exemptions to mandatory vaccination laws, encouraging scientists to engage in more public advocacy (even if it means they publish less), and increasing investment in disease prevention in developing countries. To his list, I would add improving basic science education in this country; we never learned about vaccines anywhere in my grade school experience, nor did anyone explain how the scientific process works, which would provide students with critical thinking skills that might help them reject the garbage science deniers peddle online. Hotez also has strong, necessary words for the media, who continue to discuss a vaccine-autism “controversy” where there is none, no more than there is controversy that the earth revolves around the sun, a view rather nicely summarized in this recent comic:

In the interest of balance… pic.twitter.com/pDLAzTPz5q

— TwistedDoodles (@twisteddoodles) August 22, 2019

There’s a call to action for everyone in Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, from asking your state representatives to end all nonmedical exemptions to voting for pro-science candidates to speaking out publicly, regardless of your role, about the safety and necessity of vaccines. Within this story, Hotez also gives us the deeply personal side of being the parent of a child and now adult with autism, a reminder that there are maybe 3 million Americans with autism spectrum disorder and insufficient resources to support them. We can do better on all fronts; Hotez’s book should motivate many people to do so.

Next up: I’m going to finish Wolf Hall in the next 48 hours if it kills me.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: non-fiction, vaccines

→ August 28, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 8/28/19.

Keith Law: I guess I didn’t know. Klawchat.

Otto Adamvino: With Deivi Garcia, Schmidt, Gil & Medina all looking good lately, has the Yanks’ minor-league pitching taken a step forward overall this season? Do you project any/all of those four to be good MLB starters?
Keith Law: Garcia is the highest probability starter of the group for me. I’d project Schmidt to start, with some caveats about his durability. Medina probably has the highest ceiling, based on pure stuff and delivery, but the shortest track record of adequate performance (he’s been great recently, a complete turnaround from everything that came before). You didn’t mention Roansy Contreras, who I also think is a definite starter, or Luis Gil, more likely a reliever than the others in the group but nonzero starter potential. So yeah, pretty solid crop.

Bruce: Will Bo Bichette stay at SS? Does he have an All Star hit tool?
Keith Law: I would bet on him moving off shortstop, but I think he has at least a 60 hit tool.

Will: How close are Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano to their ceilings?
Keith Law: I would say they’re both at or right near their ceilings. Laureano has even exceeded my expectations for him when I saw him and wrote him up positively after the AFL in 2016, before the Astros tried to change his swing.

Tony: Man, Rhys Hoskins looks terrible. I know he’s not as good as he looked when he first came up, and probably isn’t this bad, but it really is starting to seem like he’s more Pat Burrell than Paul Goldschmidt at this point
Keith Law: A 120 wRC+ isn’t terrible; I think you’re reacting to how he gets to that figure (power and walks, lot of Ks, low average) rather than considering the total production. I’d say I’m more concerned about his defense than anything else.

VernRudyVanceDerekKeith LAW: The Pirates seem to have several rookies & young vets having pretty strong offensive years. I know they have no pitching, especially given Taillon’s injury, but is there enough of an offensive core there to build a contender?
Keith Law: Yes. But they need a lot of pitching to get there and right now I don’t see it in the system.

Danny: So I’m torn. I want Trump gone because he’s the most divisive and destructive American politician we may have ever seen. Recessions are terrible, although inevitable in economic cycles. Am I wrong to want this recession within the next year or so if it means helping get him voted out?
Keith Law: I had this same conversation with someone the other day … you can’t root for a recession, not if you have any sort of conscience, but the realistic view is that 1) recessions are inevitable, as you said, and 2) they often bounce a lot of incumbents, especially the President.

Paul: Hey Keith – my wife and I are trying to plan a trip in early December. Somewhere tropical, looking for something adults only, nice beache etc. I know you have been to a few any place that you have been that you would recommend?
Keith Law: My girlfriend and I just stayed at Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica, this month, and we thought it was fantastic – adults only, all inclusive, never had any need to leave the resort, incredibly friendly and helpful staff. The food was better than we’d expected too. We did see the largest stingray either of us could ever remember seeing, right on the beach, maybe three feet from the water line, so … swim carefully.

Tony Gonsolin: I have a legitimate 4 pitch mix with + grades and pitched well against NYY, ATL, STL and @ COL. What is my realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Slow down. You do not have four pitches with plus grades.

Sedona: Will Joe Palumbo and Justin Dunn be in their respective rotations in 2020? What are their ceilings?
Keith Law: That feels like a strong maybe in both cases (better than even odds, far from definite). Dunn potential #3 starter, Palumbo maybe a tick below that. I believe both guys can start.

Tevin: It got very little publicity at the time, but is the Randal Grichuk extension by the Jays the most confusing deal of the year? They gave him $50+ million for 5 years despite having him under control through 2020. He’s already 27, he’s a 1-2 win player (this year he’s even less) at a non-premium position.
Keith Law: I have always been befuddled with industry evaluations of Grichuk as more than an extra outfielder, which date back to when he was in the low minors. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear and I don’t think they’ve changed at all since he was a prospect, have they? That’s not a core player you try to lock up. You keep that guy, and pay him fairly, but save your long-term investments for guys like Bichette.

Sedona: Why can’t lefties hit lefties while righties can hit righties?
Keith Law: Right-handed batters have platoon splits; they’re just not as severe. I think the main reason is that there are so many fewer left-handed pitchers, so left-handed batters don’t get the same quantity of reps against same-side arms as RHB do. There could also be some selection bias at work, with teams particularly favoring LHP who have the breaking ball(s) to get lefties out.

Mark: Were you surprised Blake Swihart passed through waivers ? Kind of feel bad for the guy, the ankle injury ,parasites,his brother passing away. Is his career likely over ?
Keith Law: Surprised, a little. Career over, not at all.

Hank: Bryan Reynolds. How much of this is mirage, how much of it is sustainable?
Keith Law: The .410 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, by a large margin. His secondary skills are enough to make him a regular even when that bubble bursts.

Jason: On Monday, Atlanta had Billy Hamilton on third with 1 out, down by 1. The hitter (not very good) walked, bringing up the pitcher’s spot, and the two options were Tyler Flowers and Hechevarria. Although Hechevarria hit a sac fly to score the tying run, was that a rare situation where an out in play would probably have been preferable to a walk?
Keith Law: I may have missed something in your question, but I don’t see why that’s preferable; the walk loads the bases for whoever was on deck, who was not the pitcher.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw. You wake up tomorrow as Rick Hahn. Do you view your team as ready to compete for the playoffs next year? If so, what moves do you make? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do view them as contenders in 2020. First order of business would be adding a starting pitcher, probably via free agency.

Chris: O/U on David Peterson innings next year in majors: 100
Keith Law: With most teams I’d say over. I can’t figure out anything the Mets are doing; they are operating with such a short horizon that I find it hard to predict how they’ll use players or even who they’ll keep.

BigDaddeh: Would you be in favor of a mercy rule in baseball? And at what point? Up 12 runs after 7?
Keith Law: In the majors, no, please God no. In the minors, I’d be open to that rather than having position players pitching, because at that point the development is over.

davealden53: James Kaprielian keeps putting up competent or better 4 to 5 inning starts in Double-A. Might he be multi-inning option for the A’s in September and a #4 starter next year?
Keith Law: Yes to the former. I can’t predict his health after the TJ and long recovery … I thought he had #1 starter potential before he blew out, but can he hold his stuff and handle a starter’s workload? I don’t think anyone can reasonably answer that question.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Here in LA it felt like the Dodgers chances to win the WS dropped from 33% to 20% after the Yankees beat up Ryu and also will likely get home field advantage — and the Astros might too. Over-reaction to one 3 game series?
Keith Law: There is no reaction to a 3-game series that is not an overreaction.

addoeh: While he’s in Poland next week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II, do you think the Chosen One will pull aside the Czech Republic leader to ask if the Sudetenland is available for sale?
Keith Law: No, he’ll ask Czechia to give the Sudetenland to Putin.

Jon: Do you think the Phillies should bring Spencer Howard up in September?
Keith Law: If the weather holds, I’ll see him tonight. I have heard the stuff has tapered off since he came off the IL.

NMN: Please weigh in on Joe Girardi using R+RBI-HR, in two-thousand-freakin-nineteen, to come up with an MVP candidates list.
Keith Law: I missed that, and oh my god, no.

Kik: What are your general thoughts of the Jays pitching prospects besides Pearson?
Keith Law: Manoah is next in their pitching prospect rankings. I haven’t seen Murphy this year around his injuries, but the stuff has apparently been legit for a starter … if he can stay healthy. Maybe he’s a multi-inning reliever, but either way, he’s a real prospect. I think there’s a big dropoff to their next arm – they have some intriguing bats in short-season, but the pitching is pretty short.

Sebastian: Francisco Alvarez’s stat line looks great for a 17 year old in the Appy league. Top 3 prospect in the Mets system?
Keith Law: Top 5.

Chris: Amed Rosario has looked better at dish. Is his glove at SS league average?
Keith Law: It hasn’t been, and maybe they decide to give up on him there because they believe in Gimenez, but I don’t see any tangible reason Rosario can’t be a competent shortstop – not tools, not mental skills. His regression has been shocking.

Steve: I know they won’t do it, but given that the Rays are locked in a battle for a wild card spot would calling up Wander Franco be worth it or would it be too premature?
Keith Law: Premature.

Johnny Utah: Any restaurant recommendations for Maui or the Big Island?
Keith Law: Never been, unfortunately, only Oahu and Kauai. Enjoy, though – I’m jealous. Would love to see Volcanoes National Park.

Matthew: I completed my first ever script late last year for a potential tv show and I’m debating writing a fiction book or another script about a redemption story and how love of a sport brought a family together from turmoil and I’m wondering if it would be better it being a book or a screenplay?
Keith Law: I feel like you may have asked this before … it’s really a question for either a literary agent or someone on the publishing side. I don’t know anything about it; I just writes the words.

Mark : What was the difference between Billy Hamilton as an amateur SS in the minors and Trea Turner as an amateur SS defensively in the minors?
Keith Law: About four grades.

Zac: Of the Erie Seawolves rotation (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Wentz) who are starters long term and who is a reliever
Keith Law: Skubal, Manning, and a healthy Mize are all good starters. Faedo is a reliever for me. Wentz is in the middle.

John: Would you say the Phillies biggest issue right now is player development or bad drafting? Or is a combination? How do you quickly and efficiently overhaul and entire dev department or scouting department?
Keith Law: They’ve had very poor results in the first round in particular, and I think you have to start there, but it is also fair to point to all the players who’ve regressed in their farm system over the last two years as well. The system-wide hitting approach this year really hasn’t worked out.

Coffee Grind: New to French Press but such a production for one cuppa coffee! Buying coarse ground coffee at local roaster but when do u get accustomed to the labor of warm up cup, carafe, presumably buy a kettle with temperature gauge , wait 4/5 min, then have coffee get cold some 10 min after plunge?
Keith Law: I don’t use a french press – I use a V60 pour-over – but really, you don’t need to do all that. Boil the water, wait about 30 seconds, and pour over the grounds. Splash a little of the extra hot water in the cup so it’s not cold when the coffee hits it. Steep the coffee for four minutes and pour. That’s it. The rest is eyewash.

MikeM: Whats Glyber’s ceiling? Hes 22 and hitting for more power than anyone projected (juiced ball caveats apply) and seemingly improving. Is he in the same class of player as Acuna and the other young phenoms?
Keith Law: He’s in the same class as Acuna for me, although I think both guys have benefited a lot from the juiced ball and Gleyber has especially benefited from, uh, his strength of schedule.

NMN: What’s current boardgame #1?
Keith Law: I’ve been debating that this year, since I’m about 2.5 months from my annual top 100 update. Tough to dislodge Carcassonne but all else being equal I think I’m more likely to pull out 7 Wonders if we have enough players and they’re okay with the game’s slightly more complicated rules.

Hank: Can we expect to see Luis Robert this year? If so, what can we expect? I know he doesn’t seem to hit when you are there, and you had concerns with his hit tool in the past.
Keith Law: I don’t know if he comes up this year due to service time/40-man space, but if he does I expect a lot of inconsistency with some real high points. A lot like Moncada so far, actually, at least in terms of the production. Major league pitchers are going to exploit Robert with velocity in, in a way he hasn’t seen much in the minors, and he has to show he can adjust to that.

addoeh: How would you rank the Caribbean islands you’ve visited?
Keith Law: The Jamaica experience was top-notch, but it was all within the resort, not about the entire island (friends of mine who were born there discouraged me from exploring). Aruba is probably my favorite and the most user-friendly. Puerto Rico has the benefit of an urban environment and culture that lets you get the best of both worlds – beach in the afternoon, dinner or nightlife in the evening. Bear in mind I haven’t been to PR or St. Thomas since before the twin hurricanes, though.

Trevor: Daulton Varsho in consideration for a top 100 update?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on mine?
Keith Law: Also, probably not a catcher. Seems like AZ agrees.

Juice: Where do you land on Tahnaj Thomas? Is he getting by solely on velocity or is he a legit arm in the Pirates’ system?
Keith Law: Big velocity guy. Not enough of a complete pitcher.

Jake: What are your impressions of Bubic this yr? Has he made any adjustments you are aware of or just a case of needing to be moved up/challenged?
Keith Law: Too advanced for A-ball, but the stuff is a lot of average. Back end starter without real upside.

Moe Mentum: Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law: Heard of it but haven’t read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

John : When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law: That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.

Moe Mentum: At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law: Yes to all three (and I’d vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.

Alex: Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law: I would not. That’s a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.

Amir: You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: Hate it, but I accept it’s inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it’s not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
Keith Law: This is essentially my take on prostitution … I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it’s going to exist whether it’s legal or not.

Beeds: Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods … where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law: Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I’d say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that’s at least comparable.

JT: I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I’ve only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren’t as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law: There’s some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think – this is a better question for researchers, I’m just cribbing what they’ve found – that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don’t throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.

JT: You’ve never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there’s a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he’s got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you’re unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law: Not at all. He’s not worth the roster spot.

Jason: My apologies for not being clear enough. The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow). With Hamilton on third, it doesn’t take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law: Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I’d need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it’s high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law: The tools aren’t really there – he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.

Nick: Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M’s rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law: He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.

Steve: You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation. You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously. Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law: I’m divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don’t mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.

Pat D: It’s pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right? I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law: It’s sad when you can read that question in the President’s voice and find it totally plausible.

David: What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law: I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven’t booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.

Matt: Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that’s gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law: It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?

Jason: Keith…is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably yes.

Ridley: So…trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says “There is no one more X than me,” or “I’m the least Y person in the world,” that’s a helluva tell. I’d love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law: The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices – we often hear of countries ‘dumping’ goods, although that’s often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs – would restore long-term balance. I’m pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you’d be right in just about each individual case.

Nick: Who’s your NL ROY?
Keith Law: With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?

Pat D: Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year? Would you watch “Joker” if it garners any nominations, even though it’s ostensibly a “comic book” movie?
Keith Law: Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon…, haven’t come out yet. I’ll watch Joker if it’s supposed to be good, and not just “good for a comic book movie.”

Mat Ji: What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

MTL: Mike Yastrzemski has been a good story for the Giants this season. Is he for real?
Keith Law: Extra OF, tops. Juiced ball has helped him, as well as just small sample size.

Zach: Do you think the ball has made GMs pause for a second for locking up young players? As a Yankee fan, watching Torres hit 40hrs as middle infielder, but if MLB changes the balls back to “normal” is he suddenly “just” 30hr power? (Yes the power numbers are just round numbers for this hypothetical).
Keith Law: To your general question, yes, it’s affecting how teams value players, and we’ll see that more this offseason (I think). Torres is pretty great at 20 HR, though.

OC Joe: @Johnny Utah: Mama’s Fish House in Maui is fantastic. Book well in advance.
Keith Law: Multiple people responded with this suggestion.

Kevin: Could Gilberto Jimenez be the Red Sox best prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: I saw him, and I like him, but I’d be very surprised if he made that large of a leap over guys like Casas and perhaps Groome now that he’s back and pitching.

Erik: how far along are you in Doctor Who? thoughts?
Keith Law: Finished S4, including the specials. (They really do lay it on thick when an actor leaves, don’t they?) I enjoy it, even though a lot of it is silly; they poke sufficient fun at themselves, and the point is nearly always the relationships between the Doctor and Companion(s), and the Doctor and certain other recurring characters.

Jay: Riley Greene has been struggling a bit at the plate since his move to full-season A. Is he still just getting adjusted to professional-level pitching or do you think it’s a bigger issue of swing mechanics?
Keith Law: That’s a huge jump for a kid who was still in high school three months ago.

Dylan: you have said previously that you do not believe zack collins has made any adjustments but Rick Hahn and the stats seem to indicate that he has (.365/.464/.713 with 10 hr and 21 bb in 33 games since he has returned to AAA compared to 9 hr 36 bb .2500/.374/.482 in the 50 AAA games prior to his call up)
Keith Law: I saw him. It’s the same guy. Be careful slicing that thinly or you will see what you want to see.

Roxanne: I hate Christian Yelich.
Keith Law: Roxanne, you don’t have to click that send tweet button.

Zach: Thoughts on non-meat alternatives reaching “mainstream” fast food restaurants? Yay for alternatives, but Nay for 900 calorie sandwiches?
Keith Law: Yay for alternatives, especially since many of these are substantially more environmentally friendly than beef. If you want to eat a 900 calorie sandwich, it’s your body. I don’t love policing how healthful others’ diets are; I’m more concerned with ensuring sustainable food and water supplies.

Tom: But seriously… What would you do if your parents were serious Trumpers? It really sucks since, you know, I love my parents. It’s just unfathomable to me how they’ve gone this far. It really is the Fox News effect.
Keith Law: I haven’t faced anything like this, fortunately, but I would cut off any family member who was a serious Trump supporter. You can’t approve of the white nationalism, the anti-LGBT policies, the environmental destruction in the name of profits, and still act like we have some sort of emotional bond. If you don’t think trans people are people, well, fuck off.

Julie : I’m an O’s fan looking for good news in the minors, and I realize I should take overall team performance there with a large grain of salt, but is there anything positive to be gleaned from Delmarva’s success this year? I feel like just being in a winning environment has to help the psyche a bit, although obviously that does not necessarily translate to success down the line. I know you’re not as high on Grayson Rodriguez as some are, but outside him and Adley, are there any solid ML prospects there? Also, it’s cool that Ryan Mountcastle won the IL MVP, but I already knew that didn’t mean a whole lot historically without even looking at the list, then saw that last year’s league MVP is already playing in Japan.
Keith Law: Adam Hall for Delmarva has also had a good year and I think he’s a regular. Some quality relievers there. There are some signs of hope in the low minors. I’m not a big Mountcastle believer, though; he lacks a position and his low OBPs are probably chronic.

Larry: That Nick Solak players I missed on article is writing itself.
Keith Law: After 25 at bats? Go call the people who tried to troll me when Austin Riley had a great first two weeks and see how they’re doing. I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Bret: Keith – has a certain type of pitcher been hurt by the juiced baseball or is it something that affects everyone equally? Thinking a guy who might make a rebound of sorts…assuming they change the ball back. Thanks.
Keith Law: Probably yes. Almost certainly yes. I would love to have Statcast data to explore that question, as I think that’s where you might find them.

Dylan: Do you see Nick Madrigal being able to sustain his 3% k rate in the majors next season?
Keith Law: No.

KC: Kyle Hendricks is a player you missed on. No biggie of course. Is there a way to ID any other 88 mph wonders?
Keith Law: He was in one of my year-end columns on those guys, too. I’d still bet against any RHP throwing a below-average fastball; their margin for error could be measured in microns.

Danny: Re comic book movies- did you watch/enjoy the second Christopher Nolan Batman- fun thriller with some great individual performances but you do have to ask why this dude is running around dressed like a bat growling like a schmo
Keith Law: The Dark Knight was fine, but I didn’t quite understand the acclaim. I thought it had one incredible performance, was generally well written, but still relied on conventions of the genre and went on a bit too long. I never saw the Dark Knight Returns.

Glenn T : At an A’s meet and greet event in Tokyo during the Opening Series in March, an A’s official hinted at the A’s returning to Japan within the next few years. Are you privy to any future plans MLB is considering for visits to Japan and other countries?
Keith Law: London again next year. Regular trips to PR/Mexico/perhaps somewhere else in Latin America. The rumor I’ve heard, but that is totally unconfirmed, is that MLB would like to play games in continental Europe. The Netherlands seems like such an obvious spot if they can find a facility, since the sport has a real following there.

tj: Now that you saw Clarke shmidt, would you say all things combined u like him better than Garcia?
Keith Law: I would not.

Tevin: Soroka for NL ROY over Alonso, no?
Keith Law: I’d vote for Alonso over Soroka.

Matt: How do we sign up for your newsletter?
Keith Law: Sign up here. I send them once every two weeks or so, when I have content to tell you about.

Sean: Do you think Jhoan Duran’s emergence this year is real and what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Real, yes. Whether he’s a mid-rotation starter or high-value reliever, I don’t know. I hear both. Maybe that ‘splinker’ is more than just a once-through-the-order weapon?

Zach: Republicans/Trans people – I feel like most Republicans are pissed they “lost” the gay rights battle, so they’re going all out not to “lose” the trans rights battle.
Keith Law: That’s a good point, and at least has the ring of truth. Also, I think GOP strategists have found more ignorance of or outright prejudice against trans people, and they’re exploiting it. It’s venal.

Jon: When Conforto was coming up through the minors, did you ever view him as a streaky hitter? He gets bashed by a lot of Mets fans because of this, even though his overall numbers are still very good.
Keith Law: No, I never thought that. Not really sure ‘streaky’ hitters are a thing … a hitter’s hits are never going to be uniformly distributed throughout the season.

Paul: Is the juiced ball here to stay? Per that earlier question, if this is the new normal, and teams are valuing players based on that – it can really screw something up long term. For instance a player like Alonso, probably loses a lot/all? of his value if he is more of a 30hr guy at 1b.
Keith Law: MLB will almost certainly tinker with the ball this winter, but we can’t predict how, or what the effects would be. To your point, however, yes, I think we will see some contracts that look fine in this high HR environment that suddenly look worse if the ball even goes halfway back to where it was. I’m trying not to sound like I’m yelling at a cloud, but seeing one baseball in the majors and another in AA and below is kind of maddening when it comes to writing about or evaluating players.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for the many notes of support and empathy that I didn’t post for the public. I really appreciate the kind works. With my daughter back in school the chats should be more regular and I will try to get back on to an every Thursday schedule starting next week. Thanks for reading. Have a safe Labor Day weekend.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ August 24, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 8/24/19.

I’ve got notes stored up for an ESPN+ piece but it probably won’t run until Monday. My daughter returns to school this week too, which will mean the return of Klawchat on Thursday.

My massive article on all the games I saw at Gen Con 2019, including my ten favorites, went up at Paste this week.

My free email newsletter will also return this week once I’ve written a few more things around the interwebs.

I’m selling off a number of my superfluous board games again this year, so if you’re interested, check out my inventory page on Boardgamegeek. Thanks to Sean Lopolito of Lops Brewing in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, who just bought eight games from me last week. I’ll be donating the $150 proceeds to the Food Bank of Delaware.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: The Guardian long read looks at how an online community devoted to the Columbine murderers fed a murder plot in Halifax, Nova Scotia. A tip to police stopped a potential massacre.
The New Yorker‘s Isaac Chotiner interviewed Penn Law professor Amy Wax, who espouses what certainly sound like white nationalist talking points, dressed up in finer clothing.
This piece in Palladium by a recent Yale grad saying that free speech isn’t the problem at that school, that the behaviors of elites are the real issue, is all over the place, and kind of hard to stay with to the end, but along the way Natalia Dashan raises a lot of good points, many of which ring true even based on my own experience at a similar college over 25 years ago.
Afghanistan veteran and sometime political candidate Jason Kander, writing with his wife, Diana, addresses five lies people tell themselves about trauma and PTSD.
Activists on the Greek island of Paros are fighting to make the island plastics-free, citing the massive damage plastics, which break down into microplastic particles that end up in the bodies of marine life and eventually us, are doing to their environment. This article claims that 95% of waste in the Mediterranean Sea is plastic.
Evgeny Morozov writes in the New Republic how his literary agent, John Brockman, helped connect Jeffrey Epstein with scientists and other intellectuals, many of whom are now, belatedly, being called to account for their relationships with the deceased pedophile.
Speaking of Epstein, it’s time to kill the phrase “underage woman.” Epstein didn’t prey on underage women; he raped children.
Loretta Ross, a black feminist, writes in the New York Times that call-out and cancel culture are themselves toxic, arguing that there are better ways to address most public displays of prejudice or ignorance.
India’s Constitution has protections aimed at ending the country’s longstanding caste system, with a 1989 law aiming to prevent atrocities against those born into ‘lower’ castes, but it hasn’t prevented the perpetuation of some parts of the caste system; the parents of a bride who married a man from the so-called “untouchables” caste hired an assassin and had her husband killed.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered steps to try to stop the spread of measles in that country, which lost its measles-free status three years after eradicating the virus. Researchers there have discovered a new link between children getting measles and their parents being ‘morons.’
The President’s Chief Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, says he doesn’t see a recession coming, but he has a long history of making predictions that turn out completely wrong, including numerous public statements and articles leading up to the 2008-09 downturn where he dismissed any possibility of an economic slowdown.
Trump nominated a lawyer who has argued for ethnic homogeneity and written screeds against LGBT rights groups for a seat on a federal appeals court.
In response to our bloviating leader’s claims that he wants to buy Greenland from Denmark, Denmark has inquired about buying the United States from Russia.
Board game news: Wavelength, now on Kickstarter, is an upcoming game co-designed by Wolfgang Warsch, the brains behind The Mind, That’s So Clever, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg.
Jamey Stegmaier, designer of Scythe and Charterstone, has a new civilization-building game coming out this fall called Tapestry. His designer blog has a ton of information on the game, including that the rulebook is just four pages, and that there’s very little luck or randomness involved.
Stronghold Games opened pre-orders for fall titles, including Amul and the re-issue of Coffee Roaster, a solitaire game I just reviewed this week.
This Twitter thread about a D&D player who taught his grandmother the game when she was 75, only to have her get incredibly into it, was very sweet.
Brilliant, highly nerdy board game tweet:
Someone placed their first tile in Terraforming Mars. @StrongholdGames https://t.co/b680qwgiRn

— Jess (The Valkyrie of Gameosity) (@miniktty) August 22, 2019

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board game news, Economics, environment, india, links, longreads, metoo, ptsd, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ August 22, 2019
→ By keith

Second Chance.

Uwe Rosenberg has two new games out in his seemingly unending series of polyomino-based (think Tetris) titles that started with Patchwork and continued with Cottage Garden. I reviewed Patchwork Doodle, the first of these two new flip-and-writes, last week; Second Chance is very similar, also a flip-and-write where you try to fill out a 9×9 grid by revealing cards with polyomino shapes and drawing those on your paper, but it is the far easier game to learn and play, but with a really clever twist when you get stuck that can cause massive frustration to other players (by design, I think).

The conceit is as above; everyone starts with a unique, 8-square pattern that they’ll fill out in the center of their papers, oriented however they’d like. The deck of polyomino shapes is shuffled and you draw and reveal two cards on every turn. Each player picks one of the two shapes and draws it on their paper, again anywhere and in any orientation they’d like. (You can rotate or flip the shapes in any way you need to.) The game comes with three reference cards that show all of the shapes in the deck, which are also displayed inside the box itself, so you can sort of plan ahead around certain shapes with the understanding that two shapes you need could both appear in the same turn.

The big twist comes when any player can’t place either of the two shapes shown, usually as you get close to the end of the deck. That player gets a “second chance,” and turns over the top card on the deck. If they can place the shape, they do so and continue playing. If not, they drop out; if they’re the first player to do so, they fill in any empty space on their grid with the number one. (If two players bust on the same turn, they both get the 1.) No other player can use that card, so it’s possible that a key shape you wanted will never be available to you because another player burned that card for their second chance.

A Second Chance turn.

Play continues until one player fills out their entire grid, in which case they win the game; the deck is exhausted; or all players bust. In the latter two cases, the player with the fewest empty squares on their grid wins, regardless of whether they dropped out or were still alive when the cards ran out. If there’s a tie, any players with that 1 on their grid win the tiebreaker. Otherwise it’s a shared victory.

As with Patchwork Doodle, the Second Chance box says it plays 1 to 6, but you’re really just limited by the number of start cards, which I believe is a dozen. We haven’t had anyone win by filling out their entire grid, but my daughter came within a single square of doing so (and she won, of course, even though she busted.) It’s very easy to teach people how to play the game – you don’t even have to explain the second chance part in full until you get there, unless people are counting cards, so to speak – and it’s a quick learning curve to climb too. As with Patchwork Doodle, you’re mostly playing solitaire, but the challenge of filling out the whole grid here is more enjoyable because of the number of cards and variety of shapes on them. It’s also quite portable and I prefer the subtler artwork. I think given the choice between the two flip-and-writes, I’d pick this one.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board games, family games, roll and write games

→ August 21, 2019
→ By keith

The Unbearable Lightness of Being.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being is the second of Milan Kundera’s books I’ve read, along with The Book Of Laughter and Forgetting, and … I don’t get it. I admit this of my own free will: I don’t understand why his books are revered, but revered they are, with literature professor Daniel Burt including Unbearable Lightness on his revised list of the 125 greatest novels ever written at #112.

I do understand the core theme of this book, at least, since it is spelled out in the title and Kundera makes frequent references to it in the text. In direct contrast to Nietzsche’s idea that anything we experience just once might as well not be experienced at all, Kundera subscribes to the believe that we live just once, and that everything that we do and undergo is thus unique. He describes life in terms of contrasts, and how you can view life as having weight or, in the case of the title and most of his characters, as being unbearably light. It is as if he’s saying life is so nasty, brutish, and short that we might as well try to enjoy it in spite of ourselves.

His characters do seem to get after it, at least; Tomás, the main character, is a philandering asshole who refuses to keep it in his pants even when he belatedly realizes that his bed-hopping is making him miserable and that he actually loves his paramour Tereza, for whom he flees the communists of Czechoslovakia and, almost inexplicably, then follows her back into the authoritarian state even though he knows he will lose his livelihood and possibly his freedom for doing so. One common criticism of horror movies is that the plots require the characters to do dumb things so that the bad stuff can happen. Kundera makes Tomás do a dumb thing – really, who defects from a police state and then un-defects? – so he can move the story along too. He does have a bizarre philosophy to rationalize his womanizing, but I found it unconvincing.

Tomás is a man of principle at work, despite his utter lack of scruples when it comes to women or his one son, custody of whom he gives up to the boy’s mother so that he doesn’t see his own child for about twenty years. When Tomás is asked to renounce an essay he’d written for a newspaper about the meaning of Oedipus Rex because the Communist puppets in charge of Czechoslovakia after the Prague Spring find it subversive, he declines, even though he knows it will cost him his job as a surgeon, eventually leading him to increasingly menial jobs and out of the city entirely. It’s the contrast Kundera outlines in the first part of the book, although I found it hard to reconcile the two sides of Tomás’ character, since the area where he acts amorally involves causing pain to many other people.

These two are connected with another couple, Sabina and Franz, via, what else, Tomás’ affair with Sabina. Sabina is an artist who loathes kitsch, a term that Kundera takes from its normal denotation of tackiness in art to some broader connotation across multiple disciplines, including philosophy, that nearly put me to sleep. Franz is the least defined of the four major characters – the dog, Karenin, might have more depth – and I never quite understood why he ended up in a protest march in Cambodia alongside publicity-seeking American celebrities.

I hated this book – not so much while I read it, but when it was done and I realized how little I’d gotten out of it. Perhaps it’s a function of my lack of any philosophy education whatsoever – I probably got more from Monty Python than I did anywhere in school – but I didn’t take anything away from the book other than Kundera’s extreme materialist attitude towards life; his characters are inscrutable and unlikeable and they do and say things that feel unrealistic. I know a few of you mentioned absolutely loving this book, but it did nothing for me whatsoever.

Next up: I’ll be reading Wolf Hall for a while longer.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: czech literature, disappointments, french literature, novel 100, philosophical novels

→ August 20, 2019
→ By keith

Coffee Roaster.

There are so very many board games – more than a thousand new ones hit the market every year, not including self-published titles or ones that don’t get published in English – yet there are few games designed with solo play in mind. More new games come with solitaire modes, typically asking you to beat some specific score, but truly solo games, ones designed from the start with the single player in mind. I’ve reviewed three in particular, Friday, the best I’ve played; Onirim; and Aerion.

One of the top-rated solitaire games on BoardGameGeek is a Japanese game known as Coffee Roaster, which has been out of print for a few years but which is coming back in a new edition this fall from Stronghold Games, now available for pre-order. I just obtained a copy of the original a few months ago, right before word of the new edition leaked, and it more than lives up to its reputation: It’s fun to play, suitably challenging, brings lots of replay value, and its theme is as well-integrated into its gameplay as any game I’ve seen.

Coffee Roaster asks you to do just that: You’re a roaster asked to roast three beans out of a selection of 22 possibilities, trying to maximize your score over the three roasts, but you have to do well enough with each roast to get to choose a more challenging (and lucrative) bean in the next round. It’s a brilliant press-your-luck game that gives you a slew of choices and multiple ways to try to max out your score, with every bean – tied to the physical characteristics of the real coffee beans the cards depict – offering a new starting point and different paths to scoring.

For any bean you roast in Coffee Roaster, you’ll start with some combination of tokens that you’ll place in the bag, usually unroasted beans (roast level 0, or green beans that have to be roasted once to get to 0), moisture tokens, flavor tokens depicting aroma or body or acidity, and probably some bad beans you have to work your way around as you roast. As the game progresses, you’ll pull an increasing number of beans from the bag in each round, roasting some, spending the flavor tokens to gain bonuses on the board or to manipulate the roasting process, and, at two steps, gaining smoke tokens that go in the bag and can screw up your final scoring. You decide when to stop roasting and ‘cup’ your coffee, drawing tokens to fill the ten spots on your cupping board – with three spots on the tray to hold beans you don’t want to score – and then add up the points on your tokens.

Each bean has an ideal total roast level that gets you the maximum number of points; you get fewer points if you’re too high or two low. You get points for drawing the key flavor components for that bean, up to ten points if you hit all four on an Expert level bean. You also get points for consistency, drawing at least three tokens with the same roast number on them. You can then lose points if you draw and place bad beans or smoke tokens in your cup, or if you don’t get any of the key flavor components, or if you fail to get ten tokens into the cup. As I type that, I realize it sounds a bit more complicated than it is, but the game has an inherent rhythm to it that makes it go very quickly once you’ve got the process down. You have a lot of potential options on every turn, but they depend almost completely on what tokens you draw from the bag on that turn – and earlier in any roasting process you won’t get to draw that many tokens, so your choices will be somewhat limited.

My 22-point Kona roast.

I have played a handful of times, with (of course) varying levels of success, but have found that getting the wild-card flavor token and the permanent 3-point token (which goes directly into your cup) are essential, while for some roasts you will want to get the extra tray, which lets you discard two extra tokens in the cupping process. There’s a Sweetness token – whoa oh oh, oh oh oh – that is required for some Expert roasts, but can otherwise serve as a wild token in the cupping process. Other bonus tokens let you redraw during the roasting process but the random aspect makes their value too variable. There’s one space on the left side of the board that lets you discard one flavor token to trash all smoke, bad bean, or burned bean (roasted past 4) tokens you have drawn in that round, a very powerful move that you can use just once per bean. It’s nearly always useful, but the question of when to use it becomes a key strategic decision among several across the game.

We don’t have the rules for the new version yet, just cover art, so I don’t know if the game itself is changing or if we’re just getting new images and, I would hope, an improved translation of the original Japanese rules, as the translation in the original edition omits key words or mistranslates others at a few places. It’s also a bit dear at a list price of $45, more than just about any solo game I know of, but I am hopeful that will come down after the initial release satisfies folks like me who’d been looking for the game for years. It is worthy of a bigger audience than it got the first time around, and while Friday is easier to recommend for its simplicity, I enjoyed this game even more.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board games, coffee, highly recommended, solitaire games

→ August 19, 2019
→ By keith

The Golden Compass.

Philip Pullman’s His Dark Materials trilogy is about to get a new adaptation this fall, with the BBC and HBO distributing a television series based on the three books, starting with The Golden Compass (also known as Northern Lights). That book also appeared on the Guardian‘s list of the 100 greatest novels ever written that I’ve sort of been working my way through, which seemed to make this an apposite time to start Pullman’s work with this book, which is a cold, dispassionate counter to the very fantasy novels Pullman seems most apt to criticize. It appeared on the Guardian‘s list of the 100 greatest novels that I’ve been working my way through the last few years.

The protagonist is Lyra Belacqua, around 11 or 12 years old at the start of the book, whose somewhat idyllic life in a castle in England in a universe parallel to our own is interrupted both by the mystery of children vanishing around London and the arrival of an enigmatic woman, Mrs. Coulter, who takes a specific interest in Lyra’s future. In this universe, all humans have familiars known as “daemons” who can shapeshift while their humans are young but who eventually take on a permanent form when their persons reach adulthood. The mystery of the children, which of course eventually merges with the story of Mrs. Coulter (and more), appears connected to something known as Dust as well as to the phenomenon of aurora borealis, colloquially known as the northern lights. The quest to solve the mystery takes Lyra on a voyage north to the archipelago Svalbard, which (in our universe) hosts the northernmost permanent human settlement on earth, on board a vessel filled with “gyptians” (essentially Roma), some of whom have lost children to the kidnappers.

Everything in this book is cold, including the setting and the weather. Svalbard sits at 74 to 81 degrees latitude, so in the winter it’s dark and average temperatures are below freezing. Much of the book’s action takes place there or on the trip there, and it is perpetually dark and cold in the prose, which mirrors everything about the main characters. Lyra, the ostensible star of the book, has very little charm or character of her own; she has the drive to find her missing friend, and believes she’s on a mission to help her uncle Asriel and thwart Mrs. Coulter, but she’s surprisingly inert compared to the child heroes of other classics of YA fiction. None of the gyptian characters is memorable, and even Mrs. Coulter is on the dull side for a villain in either YA fiction or in the sort of sci-fi/fantasy genres in which Pullman is treading. Great YA genre fiction endures because of readers’ connections with the main characters as much as the plot, and The Golden Compass misses on that point entirely.

The plot, however, has much more going for it, although much of the question at its heart remains unresolved at the end of the first book. The conceit involves the many-worlds hypothesis of quantum physics, although the exact mechanism by which it works in the books isn’t revealed in the first part of the trilogy – discovering that is tied into the various mysteries of the missing children and Mrs. Coulter. Pullman abjectly despises C.S. Lewis’ Chronicles of Narnia, writing in a 1998 essay of “the misogyny, the racism, the sado-masochistic relish for violence that permeates the whole cycle” of Lewis’ books, and at the very least he’s right about the violence part. There’s some violence in The Golden Compass, but it’s secondary to most of the action and is never glorified. What Pullman doesn’t mention in his essay is his antipathy for Lewis’ specific version of Christianity; in response, his novels rely not on myth but on science, trading elements of fantasy for the grounding of science fiction, but in the process he loses some of the whimsy of better fantasy series like the Harry Potter novels or even the more mature Magicians trilogy.

The second book in the series shifts the setting to our version of earth, and the third combines the two to finish the story. I’m mixed on whether I’ll continue; I’m a completist by nature and hate dropping series without finishing, but I’m also not driven to complete Lyra’s story or see how Pullman resolves the Dust mystery.

Next up: Hilary Mantel’s first Booker-winning novel, Wolf Hall.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: british literature, fantasy, science fiction, young adult literature

→ August 17, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 8/17/19.

I was on vacation with my girlfriend last weekend, taking a few days to go offline while at a resort in Jamaica (my first trip there, so $countries_visited++;), and while I did go see a game right after I got back, I haven’t written this week. My parents also came to visit for a few days, so I had to skip the chat this week. I’ll do one either Tuesday or Wednesday of this upcoming week instead.

I did an interview a few weeks back with a site called the Good Men Project which ran while I was away. I don’t think that makes me a Good Man but I can hope.

Thank you to everyone who has signed up for my free email newsletter and sent kind, thoughtful replies to my last few editions. I’ll send another one later this week after I’ve written some more content around the interwebs.

And now, the links…

Before I get to the longreads, I’ll start with this wonderful piece on the Saturday Evening Post about the culture of inclusion evident at Gen Con, North America’s largest convention dedicated to tabletop gaming. I’ve gone for four years now, speaking and moderating panels at the associated writers’ symposium for the last two, and can’t get over how open and friendly the environment is. I went from thinking “have a good con!” was a vaguely ridiculous salutation (I hear “con” and I think The Sting) to saying it as a matter of course. My Gen Con wrapup should be up any day now for Paste.
Now, the longreads: the New Yorker‘s Jelani Cobb profiles Stacey Abrams and her fight for voting rights, while also detailing why so many people, myself included, believe Georgia Governor Brian Kemp stole the election last year – such as their policy of cancelling registrations of voters who hadn’t voted in seven years, even though such registrations may still have been valid.
The Guardian‘s Long Read describes the pointless fretting over the “decline” of the English language. I’m more prescriptivist than descriptivist, I think, but arguing that language should be static flies in the face of linguistic history.
“For all our careful sorting, less than 5 percent of plastic in the U.S. gets recycled. That’s not a typo.” There are over 75 million metric tons of plastic in the world’s marine environments and it’s only getting worse. Outside‘s Rowan Jacobsen went on an ocean summit between environmentalists and corporate executives designed to help find solutions to address our global plastics problem.
The New York Times has a series of columns on the origins and lasting effects of Gamergate, a massive campaign of cyberharassment dressed up to look like it was a bunch of (mostly) men who cared about ‘ethics in gaming journalism.’
Speaking of the Grey Lady, The Daily Beast has the scoop on a New York Times internal town hall meeting about the paper’s repeated missteps in covering the President and issues of race.
Dr. Jill Emanuele of the Child Mind Institute went on NY1 to talk about how to discuss mass shootings with your kids. Jill’s also my cousin.
My editor at Paste, Garrett Martin, wrote about the absurdity of Wal-Mart discontinuing sales of ‘violent’ video games while the chain still sells guns.
In the midst of a spreading Ebola outbreak in the northeastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, there’s been some good news on scientific front between an effective vaccine and a new treatment for those infected, but that won’t be enough to stop the disease, caused by a filovirus that is highly infectious and easily transmitted.
Women are not better at multitasking than men; we just ask women to do more.
The Washington Post‘s Anne Applebaum looks at two Italian pro-vaccine activists who took different tacks in their fight against denialists and conspiracy theorists.
Two Italian researchers used endometriosis as a cover for a funded, peer-reviewed paper where they examined patients for their physical attractiveness, asking the patients to disrobe without explaining why. It was published in 2013 in Fertility and Sterility; the editors who published it have yet to so much as acknowledge that it might have been problematic.
Jeff Bezos’ $150 billion fortune is a policy failure, or, rather, a series of policy failures that took place over decades. The article does not mention a political party or faction behind those failures, but one party is behind nearly all of them.
Guardian football writer Nicky Bandini came out as transgender this week, explaining in her column how long it took her to accept that this is who she is.
There’s a new ‘lost’ album from John Coltrane coming out on September 27th.
Michael Chen, a current Harvard student from Honolulu, created a computer program that can predict drug resistance in a tuberculosis strain in under a second.
Board game news: Dire Wolf Digital released a trailer for its upcoming digital port of the dice-drafting game Sagrada.
Martin Wallace’s Struggle of Empires Deluxe Edition is on Kickstarter.
Renegade/Dire Wolf announced a new expansion for Clank! In Space! called Cyber Station 11.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board game news, environment, jazz, linguistics, links, stick to baseball, vaccines, voter suppression

→ August 16, 2019
→ By keith

Patchwork Doodle.

Patchwork is one of my favorite two-player games, and is probably the forerunner of all of the polyomino (Tetris shapes) games that have been flooding the market in the last year. Patchwork only plays two, and there’s very direct competition for the game pieces, each of which is unique, you use to fill out your 9×9 board, as well as specific rewards on a progress track that also serves as a sort of timer to restrict the length of the game. Designer Uwe Rosenberg has since created a line of polyomino games in the same vein as Patchwork, but that allow up to four players and run longer, including Cottage Garden and Indian Summer, while he experimented with mechanics like how players select their tiles; they’re good, but Patchwork is still the king.

This year saw Rosenberg bring out two new flip-and-write titles in this subgenre, Patchwork Doodle from Asmodee imprint Lookout games and Second Chance from Stronghold. I have both and have played Patchwork Doodle a bunch of times already; it does a solid job of bringing part of the Patchwork experience to more players (the box says “1 to 6+,” but the maximum is really ten players), but the game is also very streamlined and there’s zero player interaction, so it’s more of a brand extension than a sequel or a reimplementation.

This is a flip-and-write game, which means there’s a core deck of cards, and players will use those cards to write on their individual scoresheets. Each player here gets a sheet with a blank 9×9 grid, and gets one of ten unique start cards (which is why I say you can play with up to ten people), each of which shows a shape that will cover seven squares. You can fill in that shape anywhere on your board – I tend to do it somewhere in the middle, as placing it on an edge risks creating some hard-to-fill areas right out of the chute – before players take their first turn. The game itself comprises three rounds, and players will get to fill in eighteen more shapes across those rounds, scoring after each round, and possibly using any or all of their four special powers across the game.

The cards show more polyomino shapes, as you’d expect, although this time they’re not all unique. You start the game by flipping the top eight cads from the deck and creating a circle, placing the start token anywhere on that circle, and then having one player roll the die to move the token. The die lets you move the token 1, 2, or 3 spaces on to a card, which all players then get to fill in on their grids, after which the card is removed from the game. You do this six times in a round, after which you stop to score, saving the two unused cards to start the next round, when you’ll draw six fresh cards to bring the circle back to eight. In the last round, you’ll stop after the fifth card is used, and every player can choose one of the three remaining cards to fill in on their grid for their final move.

Some example cards and player sheets

Players also have single-use powers they can bust out at their discretion over the course of the game. One lets you fill in a single square rather than using the card for that move. One lets you choose to use either card adjacent to the one with the token on it, whether one space ahead or one behind. One lets you make one straight-line cut to the polyomino shape on the card into exactly two shape, after which you fill in one of those shapes (but not both) on your grid. The last power just lets you reuse one of the three powers you’ve already used.

Scoring is a little confusing at first, although everyone I’ve played with got it after a round or two. When a round ends, you identify any completed rectangle on your grid, and then score one point for every space in the largest square inside that rectangle, plus one more point for every row outside the square. So if you had a 4×6 rectangle completed already, you would score 18 points: 16 for the 4×4 square, plus 2 for the additional rows that were in the rectangle but not the square. It’s just not intuitive, but the way the game plays out, it starts to make sense both for strategy and from a design perspective – the scoring absolutely affects where you choose to place your shapes.

After the last round, you score the largest square inside your chosen rectangle, then subtract one point for every space you didn’t fill in at all over the course of the game. You add up your three scores from the rounds, subtract that penalty, and that’s your final score. Games take 20-25 minutes, really depending on how quickly players choose which areas to fill.

There is zero player interaction here, which is true for most roll- or flip-and-write games, but you aren’t even competing in game-end scoring categories like in games like Welcome To; Patchwork Doodle is very much a solitaire game where you compete at the end of the game. Also, the box comes with six colored pencils that are kind of useless, so I recommend you gather your own before playing. It’s very portable – I just took it on vacation with my girlfriend, only to have her trounce me by filling in all but 5 squares on her grid – and easy to pick up once you grasp that square-in-rectangle scoring, but I would still suggest the original Patchwork if you’re going to play with two people.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: boardgames, family games, roll and write games

Tags

Archives