La Isla.

I’ve got a mixed take on Stefan Feld’s “point salad” games. The Castles of Burgundy is one of my favorite games ever, probably my favorite heavy (or heavier, depending on your perspective) game. Bora Bora is a shade heavier, and pretty good, although I have to be in the right mood for it. His last two games have left me cold, however. Merlin was a total mess where it took a lot of work to get tiny gains in points. Carpe Diem was somewhat better but still not good, with at least one scoring method too many and a tile-selection mechanic that makes it way too easy to end up stuck.

La Isla isn’t his newest, but it’s probably his least-known title, and I don’t see any good reason for that. It’s not a point-salad game, really; there are only a few ways to score and they are all connected, logically and thematically. The game also features a lot of simultaneous play, so turns are very short, and you can play a whole game in under an hour. Yet it has the kind of strategic thinking I expect from Feld games, along with an extremely satisfying mechanic at the heart of the game that I find I really enjoy.

Players in La Isla are explorers trying to photograph five rare animals spread throughout the island represented by the game’s board. That board is variable, with ten interlocking pieces around a circular center piece, and both the board and the distribution of animals varies every time you play. The animals go in the green spaces around the board, and every such space is surrounded by places where players can place their explorer tokens. When a player places explorers on all spaces surrounding one animal – which can be two, three, or four spaces – they take that animal token and score for the number of explorers it took to claim it. Each player starts the game with a large, two-point token for one of the five animals.

That’s the heart of the game, but there’s more to the scoring, of course. There’s a deck of cards in La Isla that governs most of the play itself, with each card showing three things: a special ability, a resource color, and one of the five animals. Each player gets three cards on every turn and must choose one to use for its ability, one to gain the shown resource, and one to advance the shown animal on the scoring tracks. Each player has a cardholder with three spaces in it, and on each turn will place one card in one of those slots – covering existing cards from the fourth round onward – to gain that ability for as long as the card is still showing. The card selection process is simultaneous for all players, so the rounds move quickly.

To place an explorer on the board, you need to pay two resources of the matching color of the space where you want your explorer to go. (You only have five explorers, so once you’ve placed your fifth one, you start moving them, which is itself a strategic decision because you only have a few explorers to use to surround any animal token.) There are many special abilities that make this easier – you may gain a resource for where you place an explorer or the animal you take, or you may get to go on a certain type of space for one resource instead of two – making those abilities especially valuable in the early and middle parts of the game.

At the end of each round, players move up the five markers on the scoring board, one for each animal. When you move up a specific animal marker, you score one point for every animal token of that type you already have, so concentrating on one animal type has significant scoring benefits. The scoring board affects the end-game values of those same animal tokens, which start at zero but increase in value every few spaces; when the sum of the five values across all tracks reaches 7/9/11 points for 2/3/4 players, the game ends.

At end-game, the big points come. You score for each of your animal tokens based on their values on the tracks. For each set of all five animal tokens you have, you get another ten points – one of a few ways where Feld makes sure you can’t win just by going for a single animal type. And you get one point for every two resources left over.

La Isla requires you to have quite a bit of strategic planning, but you’re also always limited by the randomness of the cards. You have to have a long-term plan for what animals to go after, looking for areas of the board where you can be more efficient with your explorers and make the most use of the ability cards you have, but after a few rounds you’ll also be dependent on the resources that show up on the cards you draw. It’s easy to end up with a turn where you can’t place an explorer – it’s not ideal, and if you do that twice in a game you probably won’t win – because of that resource limitation, so planning ahead for that inevitability also becomes a strategic consideration. You’ll also want to push the animal you’re gathering up the track while trying not to push others up, although on some turns you won’t be able to move up your preferred animal at all and will have to determine which one to move that might just help their opponents the least.

There are two levels of ability cards in the game, with 120 level 1 cards and 60 more level 2 cards that introduce a bit more complexity to the game – some of which allow you to add up to two more explorers to your supply, others let you add a fourth slot for ability cards, and so on. They’re absolutely worth using but I agree with the rulebook’s suggestion that you play without them at least once to get the hang of the game itself.

Feld’s reputation for overly involved point-salad games is well-deserved, but La Isla isn’t one of them. There are only a few main ways to score – when you take an animal token, when you move up a marker on an animal’s scoring track, and at game-end for your animal tokens, so they’re all related, and require you to consider balance in your strategy. It’s also a brightly colored, visually appealing game, like Bora Bora (and definitely not like the original Castles of Burgundy), in a space where those features often get short shrift. If you’ve wanted to bump up to games a bit more complex than the family games I often recommend, but still want something good for kids 10+ and that plays in an hour or so, I would definitely suggest giving La Isla a shot.

Klawchat 5/28/20.

Starting at noon ET. My latest mock draft is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my latest board game review, of Azul: Summer Pavilions, is now up at Paste. Don’t forget to check out my new book, The Inside Game, now out in hardcover!

Keith Law: I don’t come here for the exclusivity; I just come here for the view. Klawchat.

Guest: Every mock seems to connect the White Sox to Patrick Bailey. Is this well known throughout the industry or is everyone putting a round peg in a round hole?
Keith Law: I actually think it’s more the latter this time – he’d be the best college player on the board, they like him, catching is a weakness in the system anyway.

Dave: If an MLB owner is so cash strapped that he can’t pay his minor leaguers $400/week, it’s hard to make the argument that he has enough cash flow to remain an owner…
Keith Law: Right? Look who just furloughed scouts (ahead of the draft, FFS): the Angels, owned by Arte Moreno, net worth about $3 billion; and the A’s, majority owner John Fisher, net worth about $2 billion. Paying scouts an average of $40,000 for the half-year they might miss while furloughed would cost no more than $1 million; if these teams furloughed every employee making under $100K, we’d still be looking at under $10 million, total. That’s a rounding error to these owners. I don’t think any liberal Democrat could make a better argument for a wealth tax on billionaires than watching these owners squeeze blood from stones to protect the tenth digit in their personal fortunes.

Steve: As a hitter, how does Zac Veen compare to Riley Greene?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Greene was far more bat-first, Veen is more all-around athlete with a very different swing.

Paul: To Scherzer’s point about owner’s opening up their books – he’s right isn’t he? No one really knows how much teams are making despite all the numbers we see floating around out there.
Keith Law: He’s absolutely right. And owners will *never* open their books short of a court order.

Mark: Do you use tomato paste when making tomato sauce? Is there an advantage to this?I have found that when adding this ingredient , it is a bit overpowering, although I recently read that paste needs to be caramelized at the beginning.Curious as to your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never. That’s not necessary for any Italian tomato-based sauce I know. It is useful in many other dishes, though.

Mike: Keith, thanks for being a voice of sanity in an era where science is under attack and facts can be disregarded by literally tens of millions of “adults.” Did you happen to read Doug Glanville’s piece on your former employer’s site today? If so, I’m interested in your take.
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Darren: Hi Keith. Who is your guilty pleasure band or artist? The one that doesn’t have meaningful articulate lyrics or impressive instrumentals, just something in the music that hits you in the feels.
Keith Law: It’s more a genre – ’80s music, whether it’s earlier new wave or later hair metal, hits me right in the nostalgia.

Jon: Keith, a friend of mine who is undergoing chemo for cancer did yoga in the park with forty people, no masks, in North Carolina this weekend. Are we just asking for a second round sooner than later?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s inevitable – but it won’t always happen the same way, and some areas will get lucky and avoid a second surge, which will lead more truthers to say the lockdowns didn’t help.

Trey: Moving to Philly area for work soon (the job is based in center city philly), and wondering your take on buying a house in NJ, PA, or DE? Any recommendations? I only know the NJ suburb area (haddonfield). Married w/ 18 month toddler. Thanks!
Keith Law: Delaware offers by far the lowest cost of living, especially in taxes (no sales tax, much lower property taxes esp. than NJ), but our public schools here don’t measure up to those even right over the state line in Garnet Valley, PA. I do think Delaware is a great place to live, but many parents here choose charter or private schools because of the lower funding for public education.

Darren: Hi Keith. We are trying to debate when is the right time to have parents over for dinner and a hug. Older people clearly having more risk, but if both parties have been home with the exception of food shopping, are we near the time we can have dinner? Ignoring the Wisconsin bar patrons and Southern beach goers, of those trying to stay safe, are you ready to go see a family member for dinner without masks and a big hug? Thanks for all you do. stay safe.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t just yet – my parents and my partner’s parents are all old enough to be high-risk, and I think the virus itself is too prevalent in our county here for me to safely assume I’m not going to carry it.

Ben: When Smart Baseball came out I was working for a state court judge. I lent him a copy and he subsequently lent it to about 50% of the judges on the bench in our district (he lent it to so many judges that he lost track of where it was and I never got it back). I don’t work for him any more, but I gifted him a copy of the Inside Game and he plans to send it around the bench again. Just thought you should know of your outsized influence on the judicial branch of Minnesota.
Keith Law: Thank you. I suppose no sleazy ADA will be able to convict anyone on the basis of RBIs in Minnesota now.

Mark W: Hey Keith, given that the public is regularly informed about specific players salaries, wouldn’t it be fair for the print media to prinkle in owners’ salaries?
Keith Law: It’s not their salaries that matter but their actual profitability – and I don’t mean on an income statement that can be manipulated with transfer pricing or other accounting tomfoolery. Show me the cash flow and we can talk.

Ed Howard’s shoulder: Am i a concern or have my medical been shared?
Keith Law: Howard had a shoulder issue last summer, but obviously didn’t play this spring so we don’t really know if he’s still affected. I won’t share medical info on players even if I have it, unless MLB itself has made such information public. e

Deke: What’s the “social media executive order” gonna look like?
Keith Law: Don’t talk bad words about the Dear Leader?

Greg: Are there still worries over Hancock’s medicals that could cause him to fall beyond the top 4-5 picks? I’d read somewhere that he was supposed to be providing info to teams, but doesn’t that seem like a scary idea (giving teams medical info that could hurt your draft stock)?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard those worries at all, and also you’re more or less required to provide those medicals now. If you don’t submit to the MLB MRI program, for one example, the team that drafts you can simply walk away after your physical without even having to offer you the 40% minimum. The Rays did that two years ago with Drew Rasmussen when his post-draft physical revealed that he needed a second Tommy John (which I’m sure had nothing to do with Pat Casey running him out there for long starts just 12-13 months off the first operation).

Benchy: Ever think MLB and MLPA will agree to trading draft picks? Think this could inject some life into a mostly dull television event?
Keith Law: Yes, but we need an impetus of some sort – neither side has a strong incentive to push for it.

John: Have you broken quarantine?
Keith Law: We aren’t quarantined in Delaware – we’ve been asked to stay home and self-isolate except for essential tasks like getting food or medications. I haven’t left the house for any destination without a mask, and I haven’t gone anywhere I wasn’t supposed to go. I do think we have had a few too many stores open, and we’re reopening too soon, but I’ve obeyed the Governor’s orders.

Canada: Naive Canadian here. Trump “seems” like an immoral, unethical choice. It seems common sense not to vote for him but that was proved wrong in 2016. Do you think a lot of the supporters are people who turned a blind eye to his personality traits, unethical standards and arrogance for the sake of “economic” promise?
Keith Law: Or for the sake of conservative judges who might help end reproductive rights in this country. I think that remains a major, maybe the major, issue driving single-issue voters.

Tom: I see why you’ve done so, but Doesn’t completely disassociating with Trump supporters only widen the gap in our country? My strategy is to find any kind of common ground with them, even if we disagree on most issues
Keith Law: Hannah Gadsby’s rant on anti-vaxxers in Douglas also captures my feelings on nearly anyone who’d still vote for Trump this year: You can’t change a closed mind.

Mark: Toronto has around $8M in slot between their first two picks combined (pick 5 and 42), given the uncertainty of this year’s draft, do you see a scenario where it would make sense to try and get two top 20 ranked players at $4M each (pushing someone down the draft to pick 42), versus one player at $6.2M and one at $1.8M? Basically spreading out the risk with two higher end players. Or is the top end of the draft no doubt enough that the smart thing is take the best available at 5 and then see who you get at 42? I guess the downside would be the risk on missing out on the player you try and push down to pick 42. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Because the top of the draft is so strong, I think this might result in them getting less total talent. Now, they might go to the three college arms who’ll probably be there (Meyer, Detmers, Hancock) and say “whoever is first to take $5 million is our pick.” Then you still have plenty of room to go way over at 42, where there will still be some pretty damn good HS players available, and can even push past the $3 million I’ve allotted in this scenario by going under slot later.

Kevin: If the Orioles decide to try to save $ at the second pick and pass on Martin and Lacy, who are the best/most likely targets for them to do so?
Keith Law: I mentioned that one name in the mock today. He’s probably the best position player option in that scenario.

Guest: Where would Baek Ho Kang (KBO KTW)  rank as an MLB prospect? He is the best hitter in KBO at 20….A 20 yo destroying high AAA players Isn’t paralleled anywhere on the globe. Right? ….call me crazy, but he is a top 10 MLB prospect to me.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t call you crazy, but you are mistaken. KBO is not equivalent to “high AAA.”

Chris: Damn Enter Key… Request for any further mocks: please, please link in the overview to your top draft prospect write-up. Would make reading up on these guys easier.
Keith Law: My updated ranking is not posted yet.

Kevin: Can you recommend any dishes for which dried beans are especially well suited? I panic-snagged a bunch (red, cannellini, black) at the grocery store this week and I’m a bit stumped.
Keith Law: I’ve made the Ottolenghi gigli with chickpeas recipe that you could make with dried beans you’ve soaked and cooked beforehand. The NY Times is obsessed with beans right now – they did a cheesy white bean-tomato bake that is very easy and delicious, especially with some crusty bread or over rice. Just soak the dried beans overnight, then cook about two hours on a strong simmer (or try the instant pot!) before using.

P.K.: Father’s Day gift ideas for myself to make me a better griller/cooker/kitchen user?
Keith Law: My gift guide for cooks from last December might help – but I think cooking skill is less about tools and more about knowledge. For example, I think I learned more about cooking from watching Good Eats and reading Ruhlman’s Twenty than any other single sources.

Rich: What is your opinion on remote learning and if it were to continue for another year (or 1/2 year) starting in the fall?  How much are our children being impacted in the long run?
Keith Law: It’s killing group-based projects and harming kids’ social development (I think … certainly not an expert here). But it seems like it might still be necessary in the fall.

Jim: Since you are a fan of 80’s music, wondering if you were a Queensrÿche fan? Not really metal but seems up your alley (and the messages hold up even today).
Keith Law: That is metal to me, at least, or to my teenaged self.

Eric: So Delaware has low taxes and a poor public education system? Weird.
Keith Law: Yes, that was my point. We underfund our schools. (There are a lot of people who think there’s too much waste in school administrations here, which drives voters to vote against budget overrides, but I don’t have nearly enough information to say whether that’s true. Should a school district’s superintendent make over $200K a year? People seem to get outraged at that raw figure, but I don’t think that is in and of itself a reasonable criticism.)

Patrick: With the extra home time, any new recipes or cooking techniques you are experimenting with? Broadening menu horizons with the family?
Keith Law: My partner has been using the Instant Pot a lot and I have been trying to learn it along with her (I used a pressure cooker for years, but this does seem easier if a bit smaller). I did decide a few weeks ago to try to make homemade English muffins for the first time, and now I can’t stop making them.

Clay: How likely is expansion in the next 5 years?
Keith Law: If the economy recovers enough to support it, I think it’s inevitable because owners will want that one-time cash infusion.

Chris: Do you think detmers has a chance to be anything better than a number 4 starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes. Could be an above league-average major league starter. I don’t think he could ever be an ace, just because his pure stuff isn’t there, but command like his can take you pretty far.

John: Hi Keith, it seems to mean many liberal politicians are missing an option on student loans.  The power of compounding interest makes those loans very difficult.  Its harder to pay $50k student loan than $50k car loan, can’t we just find a solution to lock interest while still paying the loan value.  It would be less burden on tax payers but also ease some of the burden on borrowers
Keith Law: Is it wrong of me to not feel much concern for borrowers? Student loans are a racket. The ease with which people can borrow for education allows colleges to raise tuition far faster than the rate of inflation, and their nonprofit status somehow lets them do so without scrutiny as long as they spend that money on things like fancy new buildings. Kill student loans and the tuition bubble will pop.

Sad Baseball Fan: On a scale of 1-10, how optimistic are you of a season being played?
Keith Law: Maybe a 6. I tend to think when there’s this much money at stake that the two sides will find a solution.
Keith Law: Nobody has a financial incentive to cancel the season. They’d have to be forced to do so by outside circumstances.

Brian: What would be the biggest real reason for the owners not to let the players look at their books (a pretty fair trade off for anyone who is looking at a drastic pay cut)? Is it because they don’t want the players to how profitable they really are or is there potential chicanery with how certain revenue streams are classified?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: So considering your love for the 80s, have you starting showing your daughter John Hughes films? He helped make the 80s so amazing with movies and music. If so did you have an order of which ones first? Our boys have seen Home Alone so far, that’s it of his movies.
Keith Law: No, we’ve been hitting classic movies instead, and calling it an education.

Rom: Do you think Casey Martin’s hit tool can be improved through pro coaching/development? The rest of his skill set suggests that he has first round talent.
Keith Law: He’s not a first round talent. I don’t think he’s going to hit like he’d need to.

Turkey: Any recommendations for ground turkey? Wife and I are over meatballs and meat sauce with pasta.
Keith Law: Ground turkey works great in tacos if you make sure you use enough oil when cooking it and don’t overcook it. It’s too lean to just leave in the pan like you would ground beef/pork. Season it earlier … and that is a recipe for which you use tomato paste.

Moe Mentum: Since you’ve been ranking prospects, which actual 1-1 draft pick was furthest down on your own list?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s Moniak.

addoeh: How many owners are going to have to host bake sales, lemonade stands, and car washes this week so the can scrounge up enough money to pay their draft picks?  Or will they just ask the government for a bailout?
Keith Law: Oh you know there will be a bailout. Some sort of “subsidy” to help restart baseball to increase public confidence or whatever.

Tar Heel: I haven’t seen Aaron Sabato as a projected 1st round pick except for you. Was that based on your intel from industry sources and do you think his skills merit a 1st round selection? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t have any players listed in this mock who weren’t mentioned to me as first-round candidates by industry sources.

Clay: Thoughts on keto? I’ve got about 60 lbs to lose and would like something that can help.
Keith Law: No fad diets for me. I don’t think they work and they’re not really based on science. It seems like the only real way to lose weight sustainably is to reduce your daily caloric intake and exercise more.

TheSloth: Have you streamed any of the Dinner & A Movie Phish shows?
Keith Law: A couple. We’ve missed the last few, this week because we did a Douglas viewing party. (I thought the first half was amusing, but not really funny, but when she started putting art up on the screen it was hilarious.)

Mason: Dillon Dingler slipping for you a bit?
Keith Law: No.

foolsgold: Why do conservative Americans mistrust science so much?  Who is getting benefit from this?
Keith Law: If you read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money, you’ll get a good sense of who is funding the efforts to undermine our trust in science – and frankly that’s been helped by the centuries-long campaign by several organized religions to do the same. When science says that something in your sacred text is false (e.g., we know that all life on earth evolved from a single common ancestor), you attack the science, obviously.

Tanner Burns: Dear Keith did I say something to offend you and the other prospect writers?  I seem to be falling off of your draft boards but I haven’t played baseball in months.
Keith Law: Falling off? No. If teams don’t seem likely to take a player in the first round, he won’t appear on my mock.

Jennifer: For the next six years, Dante Bichette Jr or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: I assume you meant Bo Bichette. I think both are stars. I’d probably take Lux though. Better defender.

Hank: If people in Delaware are concerned over a superintendent making $200k a year, they should avoid NYC suburbs, where ours makes double that, and in my opinion, is worth every penny.
Keith Law: My lay opinion is that if the schools are doing what I ask of them, I’m more than fine with paying higher taxes and seeing well-paid administrators.

Jim: Keith, on the English muffins, I especially recommend using sourdough discard.  And do you d oven or griddle?  Rings or free-form?
Keith Law: I don’t have a starter and don’t feel like dealing with one. I griddle them with rings.

Joe: Do you think Gore and/or Patino are already one of the Padres 5/6 best starters? With the Padres recent habits of ignoring service time concerns, if there’s a season we should see them both plenty?
Keith Law: Both should be on whatever taxi squad exists and both should appear if the Padres are doing well in the shortened season and want to boost their playoff chances.

Clay: Do you believe that college athletes could be handled like Olympians? Allow them to seek endorsements that would not change their amateur status, thus avoiding title IX issues but allowing them to get paid while in school.
Keith Law: I think college athletes should be handled like adults who are allowed to make financial decisions for themselves and shop their labor product to different employers.

John: RE student loans: isn’t that the point that the colleges are raising tuition beyond a reasonable rate because they can but the economics still say a college degree is worth it.  Until that dynamic flips it is likely to continue but definitely agree that the loans are a racket
Keith Law: That’s not really clear, though.

Noah: Hey Klaw, Have any thoughts on the popularity of baseball cards. Jasson Dominguez is the hot one out now. Going for $30 to $70 just for a base card. Craziness or will he be worth it? (I already have yours)
Keith Law: Not worth it.

Ridley: Am I wrong to think that Twitter put themselves in this situation by exempting the President from their terms of service? Had they just followed their own rules, his account would have been banned years ago.

Also, have you noticed that he always uses the word “unfair” to describe any attempt to hold him or his accountable?
Keith Law: Yes, you are correct.

nickolai: Our girls are now at the age where we read Harry Potter to them every night (as I know you did with your daughter).  It’s been fantastic overall.  Our younger daughter asked if Voldemort was ‘always bad’  or if he was at some point good then turned bad due to some trauma or experience.  Probably reading into it, but to me the Q behind the Q seems to be whether the ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ of individuals is innate or developed.  Unsure if this ever came up with you/your girl, but curious how you answered (or would answer) that question.
Keith Law: Never came up here, but I think book 6 gets into that – at least, Rowling tries to tackle it in the case of Tom Riddle.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think she does a pretty good job.

Yoyo: Morning. Almost all mocks have the White Sox on Bailey. Callis noted they are also on all sorts of prep bats/arms which would be a different direction than usual. Does Mike Shirley taking over perhaps change the draft strategy this year?
Keith Law: The draft strategy there has always been set from above. I don’t think that has changed – and if they’re on prep guys I would bet on it happening in rounds 2-3 rather than round 1.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-10 how ironic is it that Trump being mildly fact-checked on social media is the event that makes him suddenly support regulation?  Gotta be close to 100, right?
Keith Law: My ironymeter broke.

Shawn: Hey Keith, Thanks for doing these chats as always. Who do you have the Mets taking at 19 in your latest mock draft & Why
Keith Law: Link is up top.

Clay: Long term, who has the higher ceiling Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: Pache for me. The defensive value gives him a higher ceiling and more potential for longevity.

Brad: Hi Keith – does Tork project to be a truly generational bat in your opinion?
Keith Law: No, but I think he’s good.

Bob: Do you have your personal top 50/100 draft prospects on the Athletic ? Or still trying to gather info for reports ? Thanks
Keith Law: That will go up next week (a top 100).

xxx(yyy): any new recipes make it into your quarantine rotation?
Keith Law: My partner has found a bunch of new ones, largely from the NY Times cooking section. That turmeric chicken one was great. There was a miso-braised chicken thigh dish that was utterly amazing, so good I later cooked chicken thighs the same way just to shred the meat into something else.

Pat D: How soon before we start seeing all the editorials about how greedy the players are, never mind that they’d be taking more risk than just normal baseball injuries if/when they play?  Or do you think they’ll find a compromise before it gets there?
Keith Law: Very soon. I’m surprised it hasn’t started

JT: How did they not fire teargas and beanbags at the armed militias who stormed state legislatures?
Keith Law: The police were told “don’t fire if you see the white of their skin.”

Evan: Cavalli seems to be a player with what might appear to be multiple ML pitches, enough strikes, and a non-frightening injury history. Other than perhaps track record, what’s keeping him out of the top 10 ranked amateurs?
Keith Law: Track record is important. Maybe a full spring makes him a top 10 guy.

John: Do you think a year off could cause a big wash out of older pitchers? Seems like a decent amout of them never make it back after modest lay-offs for minor injuries.
Keith Law: Flip side is that a year off might help some older guys regain a little velocity or recover more fully from injuries than they might have.

Greg: Would Luke Little be one of the more fun midround picks for a team betting on pure upide? Guys that big who throw that hard have to be rare (even if his command will make a big league role unlikely).
Keith Law: I will believe Luke Little throws that hard when I see him do it on a mound, outside, with a hitter in the box.

Chris: Hey Keith.  I idolized Roy Halladay growing up and the recent article about him on ESPN was difficult to read.  While you were in Toronto did you ever see any warning signs from Doc at all?  Thank you.
Keith Law: No, but I made it a point not to spend too much time in the clubhouse – it was the players’ space and after my first year I realized I shouldn’t be intruding. I did talk to Doc once at length, and a few times to say hi, but would not say I really knew him well.

Asif: How do you compare Nick Loftin to Kevin Newman when he was drafted in 2015? It appears that they have similar skill sets.
Keith Law: Similar skill sets for sure although Newman was a much better runner at the time.

Mike: I don’t get what MLB is doing with their minor league players.  Selfishly they should be worried about their development
Keith Law: My one criticism here is that if you’re not paying your minor leaguers they should have the right to become free agents if they wish.
Keith Law: You don’t get indefinite rights to someone’s employment when you’re not paying them. There’s a word for that and it’s not a nice one.

Trey: How to help current student loaners? If Dems take WH and congress, maybe lower rate to 2% (idea floated around)? Any other ideas? it’s a 1.6T issue and having far reaching econ damage.
Keith Law: They could suspend all interest payments for two years as a starting point.

Ryan: When a prospect is a “bust” the tendency is to act like he was destined to fail. Like the team simply picked the wrong guy. Seems to me like we underrate chance and development. Like, if Mark Appel ended up in a different system with different coaches and teammates and strategies, maybe he’d be an OK major leaguer now. Flip it too: there are good players who would’ve busted out in other orgs. Any thoughts on “picked the wrong guy” vs. “didn’t develop him”?
Keith Law: You’re absolutely right – it can be either of those things or just bad luck. Brady Aiken’s elbow was just bad luck. But maybe Chris Sale isn’t the Sale we know if the White Sox don’t take him and help tweak his delivery … or maybe some pitchers who never found that third pitch would have been better if the White Sox had taken them and tried to teach them cutters or different slider grips.

Mike: MLB says they will lose 640k for each game without fans. Would you favor them being allowed to sell 64 seats a game for 10k each?
Keith Law: I don’t believe them, but I think that would be feasible, if local authorities allowed it.

Cole: Would Clayton Beeter crack the top 10 if he had maintained his performance/stuff from the first few weeks into a whole season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, not with the very high slot and lack of strike-throwing before this year.

Matt: The Fed gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion after a bad week. They can forgive student loans.
Keith Law: Think of how much they could do for consumers, but won’t, because consumers don’t give to campaigns the way banks and big industries do.

Crowded House: Don’t dream it’s over is the best song of the 80’s
Keith Law: No, New Order’s True Faith is.

Mike: I respect so much of what you say on baseball, food and science but think your music views are the worst.  Anyone you follow closely who you disagree with so much on something important to you even if trivial in the big picture?  Don’t say pie v. cake.
Keith Law: It’s okay. Some day you’ll realize I’m right about music too!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I have some English muffins to cook. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Check out the mock draft I linked above, and by the way, my new book The Inside Game is a great Father’s Day gift according to the New York TimesForbesRaise, and others too! Stay safe everyone.

Stick to baseball, 5/23/20.

This week I had two related columns for subscribers to the Athletic – my 2010 redraft and my list of the 2010 first-rounders who didn’t pan out. A few people got particularly unpleasant over the redraft, which is quite unusual, mostly because they didn’t read the intro. I held another Klawchat on Thursday.

On The Keith Law Show this week, I had Cubs’ superutilityman Ian Happ as a guest to talk about coffee, especially his collaboration with Connect Roasters to sell a specific blend of Guatemalan beans, with $3 from every bag going to COVID-19 relief charities. You can buy the coffee at coffeeforcovid.com, and you can subscribe to my podcast on iTunes or Spotify.

My second book, The Inside Game, made the New York Times‘ list of six recommended summer reads in the sports category, which is incredibly flattering. You can buy The Inside Game or Smart Baseball on bookshop.org or at any local stores if they’re opening back up near you.

I’ve been better about sending out my newsletter lately – feel free to sign up here to get weekly-ish musings and links to everything I write.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 5/21/20.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my redraft of the 2010 class as well as my recap of the first-round misses from that year.

The New York Times just named my new book, The Inside Game, one of their six recommended sports reads for this summer. You can buy my book at bookshop.org or wherever fine books are sold.

Keith Law: You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.

addoeh: Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law: I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken – who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry – got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas’ playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he’d seen pitch so well himself. That’s a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson’s velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he’d really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
Keith Law: That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.

TomBruno23: Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law: I’m not on Goodreads – I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.

Andy: You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law: She loves pie, but her birthday’s a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.

Deke: Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law: I don’t think I know nearly enough to answer that.

Kevin: In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law: There wasn’t enough data to answer that question.

Michael: An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn’t a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.

Michael: Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I’m guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law: A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).

Harrisburg Hal: I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I’ve been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don’t eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally – and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly – seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)

Chuck: This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it’s over.
Keith Law: If we do that, some aspects won’t come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.

Johnny: Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can’t the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can’t we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this, but I will say we can’t even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting “FREEDOM!”

Mike: Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law: They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn’t even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn’t; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don’t want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players – Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn’t be less similar as players.

Donny: Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law: If you’re asking me which one I’d most want to watch right now, that’s The Big Lebowski. I don’t know if that’s really their ‘best,’ if we’re talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.

Mike: Hi Keith – do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, of course.

Mike: Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law: This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.

John: For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law: Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain’t likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.

Johnny: Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn’t the gov’t prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov’t continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law: Bailing out the banks didn’t do a whole lot for Americans last time around.

Mike: No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I think it’s an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.

Perks of Being a …: Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law: If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it’s him. More risk because he’s a pitcher, though.

Darren: Are there ‘risers’ or ‘fallers’ in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I don’t think players are rising or falling except around signability.

Frank: Is Zac Veen a similar caliber prospect compared to last year’s top HS prospect, Riley Greene? Does he have more upside due to his power potential?
Keith Law: I like Veen’s overall package of athleticism and projection better, but Greene was a better hitter at the same age.

Cashliam: Have you seen the Spiel Des Jahres nominees ? How many have you played?
Keith Law: For those who haven’t seen, the nominees for the Spiel des Jahres are My City, Nova Luna, and Pictures; while the nominees for the Kennerspiel des Jahres (connoisseur’s game of the year) are Cartographers, The Crew, and King’s Dilemma. I have The Crew but haven’t played it yet, and I haven’t played any of the others; I can tell you I have zero interest in Pictures, which isn’t my type of game at all.

Mike: A five round draft favours big market teams and those who recruit better doesn’t it?  Other than cost reduction why would some of the teams want to do this??
Keith Law: Does it? I don’t agree that it favors big market teams at all.

Howey: Seems like college pitchers are taking up more of the mid/late first round talk than most years. Is this due to the ease of scouting with limited data, a lack of chance for high school position player breakouts, or just how the talent spread in general?
Keith Law: This is an especially good college pitching year anyway, and the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft are pushing teams to go conservative anyway.

Guest: Congratulations on the NYT recommendation! Hard work pays off??
Keith Law: Thank you! I’m really thrilled that the response to The Inside Game has been so positive. I wanted this book to reach more than baseball fans, and I wouldn’t be able to do that without help from folks outside of our little bubble.

Doug: Should teams put all their top prospects (CJ Abrams for example) on their taxi squads no matter their proximity to the MLB just so they have some semblance of professional instruction?
Keith Law: I think so. I would, at least.

Cavan Biggio: In my debut last year, I had a wOBA of 403 vs fastballs, 265 vs breaking, and 211 vs changeups.  Are these splits fixable or perhaps a flaw in my approach/swing right now?
Keith Law: Also, IIRC, that wOBA on fastballs fell apart with higher velocity – wasn’t Biggio awful on above-average or better FB? There’s nothing fixable here; he wasn’t a prospect before last season and a hot September doesn’t change that.

Punk in Drublic: The 50 50 revenue split is such an awful deal for the players for so many reasons (already negotiated, they don’t get more when owners have a great revenue year, and teams that own their cable networks pay their own team below market rates to funnel profits to the cable network).  Why won’t anyone come out in newspapers, ESPN, etc and say so?  All we hear are blowhards saying players must take whatever they get told to accept.  Basically being the owners PR team.
Keith Law: I mean, that’s the entire history of the baseball media, right? It’s the #1 argument I see for the union pushing to allow more media access to players, when they typically want less. That’s your direct line to get your side of the story to journalists. Otherwise, we in the media hear far more from the management side of things.

JG: I’m a minority in my mid-50s.  Even though I’ve lived my entire life in Texas, I have never been the victim of an act of overt racism.  I sincerely thought the country had turned an important page when Obama was elected.  12 years later it feels almost hopeless.  These Trumpers aren’t going anywhere.  You can almost feel the anger that’s going to be unleashed if he loses.
Keith Law: If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the population of the U.S. has been getting more diverse over time, and will continue to do so.

Bob: Keith: regarding trump, he is exhausting. But I feel like I need to read his twitter feed, listen to rallies/briefings to get the full context unedited.  Newest example is “per capita” bull shit from yesterday.  Do you still listen read his nonsense or are you too the point – the evidence is there – I don’t need to read or hear from him anymore.  Cake looked great by the way – Happy Birthday to your daughter!
Keith Law: I have never followed his accounts, since I get enough of him secondhand through other media people I follow.

Eh! Steve!: I’m depressed that we’ve managed to turn a pandemic into yet another culture war.  Is there any hope for stopping the polarization of everything?
Keith Law: Nope.
Keith Law: There is profit in polarization, and that will keep it around forever.

Joe: If minor league contraction happens will teams have the option to have short season teams outside of the complex leagues? Any word on the cap for number of complex teams?
Keith Law: My understanding was no, but I hope that changes.
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t some teams have the option to keep operating short-season clubs?

Trevor: KLaw, enjoyed your 2010 redraft article and personally root for late rounds picks like Eaton and Dickerson. I’m not disputing Simmons at 1.1, but I don’t think the GMs would redraft him 1.1 considering they themselves have locked up the next 5 guys on your list for a combined $1.1B
Keith Law: Unfair comparison, since Simmons signed a seven year extension as a 1+ player.

Tom: Do you think Austin Wells is a first round talent?
Keith Law: I do not. Second round, for sure.

Joe: Any sci-fi/fantasy book recommendations? I just read Left Hand of Darkness and really enjoyed it. Farenheight 451 is already on my list.
Keith LawJonathan Strange & Mr. NorrellThe DispossessedAmong OthersThe Fifth SeasonAn Unkindness of GhostsAmerican GodsTo Say Nothing of the Dog.

W.E.B. DuBois: Gut feeling: do we get a 2020 season?
Keith Law: Yes, my gut feeling is they force one through.

Trevor: O/U: The 2010 draft class produces 0.5 HOFers?
Keith Law: Over.

Larry: Do you have any feel for how the UDFA portion could go? Will it just be mostly seniors and that’s it? Also, how do you anticipate players deciding where to sign? If 20k is the max they can get anywhere, would they just sign with the team they root for? I’d think that could benefit teams like Atlanta with a large, talented region where most of their fans live.
Keith Law: Senior signs and not much more, I think. I would at least advise such players to consider whether the teams trying to sign them offer them credible paths to the majors. A decent shortstop prospect might not want to sign with the Rays or Padres, given who else they have.

Mike: I’d nearly forgotten the Chad Jenkins/Deck McGuire fiascos…add in Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris etc and the Jays record on college arms is pretty bad…isn’t that odd for “safer” type picks?
Keith Law: Yes, their process – whatever it was – didn’t seem to identify the right college pitchers, in hindsight. Jenkins is the only one who seemed like a huge reach at the time. I do think Hoffman would have fared worse today because his fastball plays down so much, but at the time it was just “tremendous athlete with big velocity.”

Pat: What’s your opinion of Kyle Harrison? You think he would have a chance of being a first rounder if the high school season played out?
Keith Law: I have never heard that about him.

Amir: Do you think that someone like Nick Loftin who’s deemed to be “safe” and has a “high floor” would be more appealing than in past drafts with the less in-game looks and performance data to assess prospects standings in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a first-rounder, but yes, I think he’ll go higher in this draft than he would have in a year with a typical spring season.

Chris: Do you think more states will allow for mail-in voting this year?  I am trepidatious about going to the polls, but will refuse to skip voting this November.  My state does not currently allow mail-in voting, and I fear that the guess-which party-run legislature and governor will nix any such proposal because it will not work in their favor.  What say you?
Keith Law: I hope so, but are there logistical issues with this? Do states have to have the infrastructure to handle thousands or even millions of mail-in ballots?
Keith Law: Delaware is allowing anyone to register as “sick” or “disabled” to vote via mail, under an emergency order this year. I do hope that this at least leads to a permanent change here where early voting is enabled.

Larry: Any rumored signability issues with HS top 150ish guys?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s always the case.

Gary: How likely is Jack Leftwich to be taken in the top five rounds?
Keith Law: Last I heard was that it’s more likely he returns to school as he wouldn’t go high enough to come out.

Ridley: So, the Senate Majority Leader said that he would no extension on the $600/week payments because people are choosing to stay home instead of work, and that his #1 priority was to insure that workers who caught COVID wouldn’t be able to sue.

Two questions: Instead “staying home instead of working” a feature and not a bug during a quarantine? And, while we sure seem to love “job creators” in this country, there’s not a lot of love for the “job doers”, is there?
Keith Law: If I were running for any federal office as a Democrat, I would run ads that just show quotes from McConnell, Graham, etc. opposing extending those payments.

Miles Roby: Have you read Empire Falls by Richard Russo? If so, do you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes, I read it in 2007 and loved it so much I went on to read everything else he’s ever written.

Gary: If most teams are leaning conservative this year, doesn’t this set up as a good time to zig and go HS upside?
Keith Law: Sort of. The players have to be there, and they have to be willing to sign.

Tom: Randomly thought about how good Corbin Martin was in the minors before TJ, think he can get healthy and be a really solid starter in 2021?
Keith Law: I do.

Robert: Could the lack of a minor league season have an impact on major league roster decisions?  For example the White Sox with Kopech and Madrigal, could there be more of a willingness to start service time clocks rather than lose a year of development?
Keith Law: There should be.
Keith Law: Any team that might contend this year should be willing to call up any prospect who could help.

Chris: Should the city of oakland evict and sue for damages against the As for not paying their rent?
Keith Law: Per Susan Slusser, the A’s invoked a clause in their contract that allows them to do this. I don’t see what recourse the city would have here.

JP: do you envision governments being able to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine in order to send you kids to public school? and if so, shouldn’t it be ALL vaccines?
Keith Law: Technically, they can do that. Four states mandate vaccines with no nonmedical exemptions already. All states have some sort of vaccine mandate for schoolchildren.

Chris: Do you expect to have a clear picture of the top 7-10 picks of the draft beforehand, or do you expect it to stay quiet and all guess work this year?
Keith Law: I think we’ll know the top 10-12 pretty well by draft day. Back of the round will probably be more speculation this year than typical.

Shawn: Hey Keith, great job always. What about Jared Kelley to the Mets at 19. Thanks
Keith Law: Highly doubt they take a prep arm at 19. I wouldn’t.

Steven B.: Do you like OSU catcher Dillon Dingler in the 1st round this year?
Keith Law: He was on my mock last week and I believe he goes in the first round.

Todd: Im really starting to think there’s no bottom to the Trump administration and that by late summer the economy could be enough that people will think he did a good job while he averts their attention from 200k dead. Please tell me Im wrong?
Keith Law: I don’t think the economy recovers that quickly. It’s going to be too hard to push people back to manufacturing facilities or other environments where they’re in proximity to other workers without creating new outbreaks.

Larry: What are you hearing on Mick Abel? I get the HS pitcher thing but man do scouts love him.
Keith Law: Best HS arm this year. Only prep pitcher on my mock last week.

Mike: If you go first round and get offered half of value, what do you do?  It’s arguable that contracts are going to go way down if fans can’t get back. I’m team fuck the owners, but if I’m a player and get offered 1M in a 2M slot it might be hard to turn it down
Keith Law: I would advise the player to turn it down. Go to JC next year if you’re a HS player.

Bighen: Simmons going 1 seems Egh.   I get it but analysts always warn us that defense ages early and often quickly.  So he may have almost no time left as an elite defender which would make the rest of his career look iffy.  I don’t think he can be rated above yelich, Harper or Machado for an exercise like that.  Sales future prospects and degrom’s age at least give pause.  But I think the simmons choice is not as “defensible“ as written.
Keith Law: Simmons isn’t an average defender or even an above-average one. He’s an 80 defender at short, like Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, both of whom held their value into their late 30s. Even Vizquel, who wasn’t as good a defender as Simmons is, held most of his defensive value till his career ended. I don’t think Simmons is an obvious choice, and feel like this exercise is both subjective and inherently speculative, but I do not agree with your counterargument here – the best argument against Andrelton is around his bat, not his glove, as it is offensive decline that ends the careers of elite defenders more than loss of glove.

Guest: Also I loved Smart Baseball and reading your work. Just as I joined ESPN as a PA you left. :/ I am reading you now in the Athletic!!
Keith Law: Well, thank you. I did try to hint that I might not stay at ESPN last year, but I didn’t decide for certain until late November.

Mike: Since you missed out on in game scouting are you watching film or cross checking for players you haven’t seen in person?
Keith Law: I watch video where I can, but this year I’ll rely more on calls to scouts than I typically do.

Jason Amico: What are your thoughts on how Joey Bart’s defensive ability behind the plate will translate at the big league level? I was curious if his hand injuries and setbacks last season would have any impact
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason it would hurt his defense in the long run. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it’s a sign he can’t stay at catcher, but we aren’t at that point.

JD: Oakland has gone with high ceiling, up the middle tools players in recent 1st rounds (Beck, Murray, Davidson), are there names that fit this bill at the end of the first round this year?
Keith Law: Yes … but Beck hasn’t panned out, Murray didn’t sign, and Davidson is still a big question mark. Not sure they’d stick with that approach in a weird draft year anyway.

Mike: Do you think teams are prepared for this draft or is it a bigger crap shoot than normal?  Can’t wait to read the redraft article in 2030
Keith Law: Let’s just hope we’re all here to read it in 2030. I do think teams could draft today if they had to. There isn’t that much to discuss at this point without games to watch.

TomBruno23: I want to try OOTP 21, but I’m scared I’ll full go Universal Baseball Association and even more insane than I already am. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have played OOTP, maybe 20 years ago (?), and I just can’t do it now because I’d get sucked into it and lose so much time.

Dr. Bob: I have always been opposed to the DH for reasons you already know. However, an article by a former sportswriter a couple of years ago detailed how no team (even in the NL) works with their pitchers to hit at any level. That’s when I was converted. Now Covid-19, of all things, might bring it to the NL.
Keith Law: Yep, I don’t really even see how you could work with pitchers enough on their hitting to make a difference. This should have happened years ago – the game will be better off for it.

Mike: How hard has it been to put together mock drafts this year? Has there still been a lack of info tying players to teams or have you been starting to hear more rumblings?
Keith Law: I had less info for last week’s mock than I would for a normal mock one month before a draft. We’ll see if that changes now that we’re close to the draft date and everyone is doing mocks so information is flowing more.

Mike Trout: Barring injury, when it’s all said and done am I the consensus GOAT?
Keith Law: There will be contrarians who argue against it, but I think that’s where we’re headed.

Regan: Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, who has the higher upside?
Keith Law: I think Garrett.

Guest: We all understand Twitter is a cesspool but have you been following this hitting guru stuff? It’s pure gold.
Keith Law: I haven’t … and now I’m scared.

Mike-Y: How excited are you about Michael Bay making a movie about the pandemic?
Keith Law: Is he … is he going to just blow up the virus?

JP: what happens to Kyler Murray if he wants to play baseball sometime in the future? free agent? re-enters the draft?
Keith Law: Pretty sure he’s on Oakland’s restricted list and they’d hold his rights.

Guest: If he didn’t have TJ surgery, would Kevin Abel be a top draft pick this year?
Keith Law: A pick, yes, a top one, probably not.

Johnny: Will Plesac be an above avg starter in the bigs?
Keith Law: I think he can be.

Johnny: Shouldn’t Jacob Degrom be #2?
Keith Law: He’s a 31-year-old starter who’s already had TJ. His long-term projection isn’t great, even though in the short term there are few pitchers I’d rather have.

Ben: Favorite film of the 7Os?
Keith Law: I’d take The Sting over Chinatown and Star Wars – but really, the kids of today should defend themselves against the ’70s.
Keith Law: Oh, I finally saw Taxi Driver and Midnight Cowboy for the first time in the last week. We’ve been catching up on all-time great films one or both of us hasn’t seen.

Mark in Santa Monica: If there is a short season, are there any teams you think it helps more to get to the postseason?
Keith Law: It increases the odds of a team having a really fluky season and getting into the playoffs. For example, the White Sox were a good-not-great team for 162 games. If they play 70 games, could they get an outlier performance or two that makes them a 42-28 team that wins the division? Absolutely. More likely than a 98-64 season.

Pat: Did you ever watch The Wire? The pandemic finally gave me the the time to do so. Great show. maybe favorite of all time.
Keith Law: Yep, reviewed all five seasons here.

Sam: Favorite “I know it isn’t a good movie but I really enjoy it any way” movie?
Keith Law: I have a soft spot for Top Secret! I’ll always remember Deja Vu.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for the questions and for reading. I believe I’ll have my second mock next week, and then I’ll do two more before we actually draft. Take care & stay safe!

Stick to baseball, 5/16/20.

I posted my first mock draft of 2020 on Wednesday for subscribers to The Athletic, since we are now just 26 days away from the first night of the draft, which will only be five rounds. I wrote last week about the impact of the shorter draft on players and the sport as a whole, and also did a “what-if” lookback at the Padres’ decision to take Matt Bush over Justin Verlander in 2004. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday, my first in ages.

My new book, The Inside Game, is now out and you can buy it everywhere fine books are sold, including here on bookshop.org; I’m donating my affiliate commissions from sales of my book through the site to my local food bank. The Eugene Register-Guard has a nice review of both The Inside Game and Brad Balukjian’s The Wax Pack.

My guest on this week’s episode of The Keith Law Show was San Francisco Chronicle baseball writer John Shea, whose book 24: Life Stories and Lessons from the Say Hey Kid, co-authored with Willie Mays, was released on Tuesday. I’m scheduled to have Cubs infielder/outfielder Ian Happ on the show this upcoming week to talk about his charitable endeavors with artisanal coffee. You can also subscribe on Apple PodcastsStitcher, and Spotify.

At Paste, I reviewed The Sherlock Files: Elementary Edition, a new card-based deduction game that played better than I expected, although the Sherlock character isn’t remotely involved in the game’s story or mechanics. My review of the excellent digital adaptation of Sagrada is up over at Ars Technica.

I sent out another edition of my email newsletter on Friday night to subscribers; it’s free and you can sign up here.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 5/14/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My first mock draft for 2020 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the deduction game The Sherlock Files: The Elementary Entries for Paste.

Keith Law: I didn’t mean to take you up all your sweet time. Klawchat.

addoeh: I know your default statement is all 1st rounders sign.  Will that still apply this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Too much uncertainty on both sides. Strong possibility a team takes a player and offers him 50-60% of slot, says “take it or leave it,” and if he doesn’t sign just takes the compensatory pick next year. (I’d have a lot to say over on The Athletic if that happens.) Also, I think a lot of HS kids will just choose junior college or their original college commitments if they aren’t drafted where they expected they would be.

joshkvt: Isn’t all talk about starting sports premature until we have a national testing plan (or even pretend to have a federal response)? MLB/NBA etc. burning through 10s of thousands of tests for entertainment when sick people of less means and grocery workers can’t be tested seems a recipe for long-term resentment by rational people.
Keith Law: Testing and contact tracing. I know Delaware is moving forward with a contact tracing plan before we reopen too many places, but other states are rushing to reopen without anything of the sort. I’ve mentioned the Arizona data a few times, because I don’t know how baseball restarts if Arizona doesn’t have the pandemic under control yet – the U of A’s site has the state’s Rt at 1.18-1.23, which is nowhere near “under control.”

Nick: I recently made it to the episode of The Wire with Prezbo’s quote that you used in your book. Started watching the show since I’ve seen you praise it a couple of times, and I’ve very much enjoyed it. Also really enjoyed your book!
Keith Law: Excellent choice. It’s a big commitment but IMO worth it in the long run. Never seen a series that tackled that many important topics while also working in so much entertainment value.

Aaron C.: Wife’s been ordering weekly boxes of produce from local farmers. Any preparation recommendations with the occasional eggplant, acorn squash or bok choy in the box, Klaw?
Keith Law: Roast or grill the eggplant to scoop out the center and make baba ghanoush. Bok choy is the perfect ingredient for homemade soup with ramen or soba (you can buy instant dashi powder online for the broth). I am not a huge fan of acorn squash but you can roast it, let it drain a little as it cools, then mash it to make gnocchi.

Aaron C.: Acknowledging that pretty much EVERY celebrity encounter is mundane, do you have a memorably mundane celebrity encounter?
Keith Law: I remember seeing (but not talking to) Fred Schneider of the B-52s on a bus in lower Manhattan in 1992. Maybe 15 years ago I spotted Doug Wilson, one of the designers on Trading Spaces, in a Starbucks in Manhattan. He saw me recognize him, so I gave him the ‘hey’ head-nod and he returned the gesture. I don’t think it gets more mundane than that.

Ryan: Ok so I used to write in these that the GOP was tanking for better draft picks, but I didn’t realize it also meant their tanking involving killing thousands of people …
Keith Law: How can satire survive when one political party is openly advocating for a higher death rate to save the economy?

Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wanted to say that I’m enjoying The Inside Game. I was also wondering if you’re going to send your daughter back to school in August/September because “young people are in great shape” and since “you can be driving to school and some bad things can happen”. Also hoping you can enlighten me as to how a scientific fact can be unacceptable.
Keith Law: Those pesky scientific facts always getting in the way of poll numbers!
Keith Law: (I hope schools reopen, but I’m not an optimist, not on this subject.)

Matthew: Do you think music criticism is an important discipline and do you have any recommendations of any must-read music writers?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to answer the first part, but no, I do not read any specific music writers as I do with the work of some movie critics.

Ben B: You’re back! No question. Just a sincere thank you for the chat. I’m sure you get trolled to the max and get so many covid questions that there are no answers to, but we appreciate you holding the chat and giving us some kind of interaction to look forward to during these hard days.
Keith Law: I’m sorry it took me so long to do one, but I felt like there wasn’t enough real baseball to talk about – at least now with my mock draft, and a scheduled draft date, we can get back to that amongst your various board game, food, and book questions.

Andy: Any chance Veen or Hancock make it to the Rockies at 9?
Keith Law: Right now, I would say no, zero chance.

Guest: What impact do you think the draft changes will have on 2021, 2022 and 2023 high school graduates?
Keith Law: I think 2021 is significantly altered, because many players from this year’s draft will try again next year (college players returning as seniors/fourth-year juniors, HS kids who try junior college). Then there will be a smaller ripple effect into 2022, and so on. It’s beyond those players’ control, however, so it’s best to just focus on what they can control – their performance, skills, conditioning – and let the draft fall where it may.

JR: I’m sure everyone will ask this…but your current best guess, do we get MLB this year?
Keith Law: I believe the various sides will push something through – there is too much internal and external pressure to make a season happen – but that it will likely happen before the public health situation is sufficiently stable, and there will be a high risk of a shutdown to the resumed season.

Mike: You had the Red Sox going safe in the 1st round with Chris McMahon – do you expect Boston to try to save a little bit of $ at 1-17 to use later given the lack of a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be one of many teams staying college/conservative because of the way this spring unfolded. Not a permanent change in philosophy but a reaction to this year’s unusual events.

Leo: Would you say Austin Wells is the best college bat in the class after Martin, Gonzales, Kjerstad? Which would be the best comp for him and why he’s not getting the buzz he should?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is the next-best college bat; he’s not getting more buzz because teams don’t think there’s any chance he can catch.

KirkGibsonfan: I think your mock was what you think will happen. If you ran the Tigers – would you take Torkelson or Martin? As a Tiger fan – should I be disappointed that the Tigers take a right handed hitting 1B at 1?
Keith Law: If Martin had come out this spring with the same arm he showed last year, he’d be the easy 1-1 for me. He had some throwing trouble in the first few weekends, and nobody knows (as far as I know) if it was a blip or something serious. I remember Anthony Rendon dealing with a sore shoulder his junior year that affected his swing, but it turned out to be nothing and he should have gone 1 or 2 in that draft. Maybe this is the same?

Tony: With no baseball, I’ve been doing a lot of looking back. As a Hall of Fame voter, how much value do you place on peak vs longevity? For example, if Cole Hamels ends up with 70 WAR and 3,000 strikeouts, is he a Hall of Famer, even though he never had a noticeable peak, just a lot of 5ish WAR seasons?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is ‘no,’ because I want stars in the Hall, not just the good-for-a-long-time types like that or Buehrle. No disrespect to such players, but the plaques should go to the very best.

Aaron C.: Nothing but respect for MY president *checks notes* Blake Snell?!
Keith Law: Indeed. Slapdicks represent!

Peteprz: Think a team in the teens taking JT Ginn would be reaching? How high is the chance of that happening?
Keith Law: I think he’s someone’s second pick. Perfect candidate for that.

Guest: Just finished Smart Baseball (fascinating!), which spurred me on to read Moneyball (almost done!). What should I read next?
Keith Law: Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Karen: Any new news with MILB/MLB Contraction plan?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything at all since the column I wrote about a month ago. Don’t think the two sides have had formal talks.

Mike: What’s the major factor on Mick Abel falling to #23? Is it the lack of data points from this spring, his price tag, or just general riskiness of HS RHP?
Keith Law: Not so much “falling” as representative of the high risk of HS pitching and the desire to play it safer this year with players we know better. I think Abel is the one definite HS pitcher to go in the first. Kelley might. Bitsko seems more likely to be someone’s second pick too.

Kevin w: i have friends for over 25+ years I’m on the verge of dropping due to continued trump/gop support. Have you had to make this kind of decision in last 4 years?
Keith Law: Not close friends, but I’ve certainly drifted away from some people for their support not just of the man or the party, but of specific policies that I think rely on racist or other bigoted beliefs.

Condor: Dr. Bright appears to be damaging the administration today. Will anything be done?
Keith Law: LOL of course not.

Jeff: Could a team drafting in range of picks 5-10 in the first round, get the player they rank 1-1 by offering 95% of their full draft $ to this one player, signing ncaa seniors for minimum with their picks in rounds 2-5?
Keith Law: That’s the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams draft strategy, right? I doubt anyone would dare try that this year.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s illegal, though.

Zach: I saw today that Republicans trust Trump by more than 20 points over Fauci. Not even a bungled pandemic will shake the Trumpers from their cult loyalty. I’m at a loss for how we go forward as a country when intelligence and expertise is so proudly ignored by half the country.
Keith Law: Many people have warned us for years about this rising tide of anti-intellectualism – The Cult of the AmateurThe Death of ExpertiseThe Age of American Unreason have all tackled this subject in the last 12 years – and I am convinced nothing will work on that subset of the population. They’re simply lost to reason.

Jeff: Who blinks on this revenue split – owners or players?
Keith Law: Owners. I don’t think the negotiated agreement from March even allows owners to revisit this.

Jordan: I’m trying my best to be a good citizen and follow rules, etc., but it’s hard when we have no national plan + I feel like the goalposts keep moving. At first it was “two weeks to flatten the curve” then it was “stay home longer to crush the curve” and now it feels like it’s “stay home until we get a vaccine/treatment” at some point, don’t we have to move into an assumption of risk period – especially now that hospitals aren’t being overrun?
Keith Law: I don’t know you, or your medical status, but it sounds like you’re not the one assuming the risk. Do you want tens of thousands of Americans, most of whom will be high-risk people like the elderly or the immune compromise but some of whom will be otherwise healthy children and young adults, to die so you can go get your hair cut? The goalposts aren’t just moving arbitrarily, but as we learn more about how contagious SARS-CoV-2 is, how it spreads, and how severe restrictions on movement have to be to keep the Rt under 1, some states and countries have tightened their policies to adapt. Dogma does not change in response to new evidence. Science does.

J: Do you have a favourite baseball book? I just finished Prophet of the Sandlots and I found the story interesting (though not so much the author as the subject)
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm.

Jake: Although I think it’s been true for a few years now, it struck me reading through your team lists that you are the only public prospect analyst who does not use some kind of unifying grade. BA, Pipeline, FG, BP and now ESPN with McDaniel’s Top 100 – all publish a grade aligned to the 20-80 scale to help make cross list comparisons easier for non-top 100 prospects. Do you think you might add something like that to your team lists? If not, what’s the reason you choose not to? Thanks.
Keith Law: I will not. They’re not useful, as they fail to convey much relevant information on a player, from the details of how the player is likely to get to that value to the often-wide variance expected around those numbers.

Freddie P: What are your thoughts on Biden/his shortcomings and the trivialization of rape allegations? Personally, I’m leaning towards a 3rd party vote (in a state that Biden will win without issue), as terrible as Trump is.
Keith Law: Biden might not have been in the top 10 for me among candidates in the original Democratic field, but I said from the start I’d vote for any actual Democrat to defeat Trump, and that’s still true, despite Biden’s shortcomings, the possibility that these allegations are true, and some of my policy disagreements with Biden.

Colin: What do you think the players will resist most in the latest offer from the owners? Safety issues? Money? Other?
Keith Law: It’s all safety. Testing, medical protocols, etc. There was no revenue proposal – and, whoa, no dates – this week because, I believe, owners can’t change what they already agreed to do.

Kip: At some point you mentioned writing a paper in college about the use of light in 1984 and Brave New World.  Is that available to read anywhere?  Also, finally starting The Master and Margarita and really looking forward to it.  Your new book will follow.  Thanks for all the great content.
Keith Law: That paper was in high school, and I’m afraid it’s long gone. My mom gave me a bunch of stuff she’d kept from my school years and it wasn’t in there. My college essays were, though!


Ray: Noticed you reviewed The Warmth of Other Suns and thought I’d mention, Isabel Wilkerson announced a new book coming out this summer. Keith Law: Ooh, that’ll be a must read.

Zach: Were there any high school showcases occurring during shutdown, or will teams have to draft solely on junior year performance? Think that will tilt preference towards college kids?
Keith Law: Nothing. MLB forbade scouts from even going to meet with players.

Brian: I have a baseball question but first I would like to say I understand how the dark ages happened. Seeing how many people even today just blatantly ignoring science and believing the crap being spewed by people “in charge” leaves me dumbfounded. Anyway, you have the A’s drafting a catcher at 26, is that because you think they really like him or on your board he was the best player available?
Keith Law: Down in the 20s I went with BPA and team philosophies. I have since heard, however, that Dingler is likely to go higher than 26.

Dr. Bob: Does fewer rounds mean more unsigned players? Don’t teams still need players? Or is it that they won’t pay as much to undrafted players?
Keith Law: No short-season baseball this year (or maybe ever) means teams need ~30 fewer new players this year.

Guest: How impressive is it that Jordan hit .202 and a .289 OBP in AA at 31 with 14 years away from Baseball?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, it sounds impressive. I don’t know what it actually looked like.

Mike: What is going to happen to minor leaguers if there is no season? How do you choose who to protect in a rule 5 draft.  It’s going to be chaos
Keith Law: Yep. And think of all the lost development time.

Greg: Does Atlanta stay college/conservative? Seems like that’s the route Anthopoulos and Brown went last year in the early rounds.
Keith Law: I heard yesterday they were one of the most likely teams to go all high school.

Chris: With Jerry dipoto being on the record for wanting “up the middle talent” at 6, why do you think he’d pass on Gonzales?
Keith Law: Teams were a bit scared off by how he looked vs Texas A&M, and he’s not a long-term shortstop anyway.

Julian Casablancas: I know you didn’t include The Strokes’ new album in your May music list, but they changed their style a bit and I really think you’d like some of the songs (Ode to the Mets, Selfless, etc)
Keith Law: I did hear several of those songs but they didn’t really do it for me.

Pat: Isn’t there a real chance that players not signing this year if they’re offered only 50-60% of slot end up in worse shape next year because the 2021 draft is loaded with 2021 players AND 2/3 of the 2020 class,so the player’s draft spot is lower?  It stinks, no good answer for a player in that position.
Keith Law: Yes, and some teams may try to take advantage of that situation by offering 50-60% of slot. “Take this, or maybe get less next year, or face a second shutdown and a worse situation overall.”

Matthew: Haven’t seen the Rockies connected to Max Meyer at all. Do you think he would be an option for them at 9? I see him as a better prospect than Detmers but he seems to be the consensus selection for them.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they took Meyer.

DJ: So… what exactly are we expected to do if we “never have a vaccine” or, based on latest estimates, it’s 4 to 5 years away? I’ve tried asking liberals this question, but don’t get a realistic response, and there’s no way everything will be shut down that long. We just have to physically lock grandpa and grandma up and get back to it at some point, don’t we?
Keith Law: Four to five years? That’s extremely pessimistic and not supported by anything I’ve seen. I enjoy how much you’re willing to limit the liberty of people older than you are, though. Forgive me for thinking of my parents, my partner’s parents … and perhaps your parents too.

Deeks: Curious what you would do as a GM/SD in this year’s draft, philosophically. It seems the plan to go so college heavy leaves prep players the value as early as the middle of Round 1. If you’re a team picking 10-20, do you sit in the weeds and snag Veen or Kelly? They seem like the rare example of the type of HS talent in this class you don’t pass on for the safety of the college pick.
Keith Law: Don’t see Veen getting out of the top ten. As for Kelley, or Abel, I keep hearing that teams in the top half of the round are hesitant to take HS pitchers given how uncertain the entire year is – lack of scouting looks, limited data, the revenue loss, etc.

Pat: With expanded rosters will we see  players like Pearson, Etc be on big league rosters out of the gate?
Keith Law: I hope so.

Leo: If the owners end up blinking, players know they will suffer the consequences of that in the future? For example this very next free agencies
Keith Law: The owners are going to pay less to free agents this winter no matter what.

ronald: I see your prior answers that kids low balled in the draft go back to school, but what if school is closed? does it behoove a kid to start a career under a professional teams watch rather than sit out a season?
Keith Law: We can’t really know now, or even in late July, if schools will be open the following spring.

Steve: Why do people against “opening up the economy” always resort to BS about people wanting a sense of normalcy just to get a fucking haircut? Some people are legitimately suffering from this due to not being able to work, and there’s a common-sense compromise in this situation. It just angers me at the stereotypes prevalent as if this is over something trivial like missing Happy Hour or wanting a haircut.
Keith Law: Arizona, with an Rt well over 1, just opened … fitness centers and public pools. Doesn’t get more trivial or reckless than that.

Pat: You think Milb just plays complex games?
Keith Law: I think there would be some sort of games, maybe like minor league spring training games, on back fields, but not close to four or five full teams’ worth per org. Just enough for a taxi squad of sorts for every club

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I’m with Freddie P. Biden is horrible. His only saving grace is that Trump is worse. Is that what we want in our leader? “Well, he’s not the worst president we’ve ever had” isn’t a screaming endorsement. The “team” mentality in politics is destructive. The 2 party system is pointless and destructive. That’s the real problem
Keith Law: Okay, and what do you plan to do about it? Your vote for a third party will do nothing to advance that party. You’d have to get millions of people to do the same. I’ve been hearing this same story for nearly 40 years now, and it never changes. No third party candidate has won a single state since George Wallace, ten pounds of racism in a five pound bag. Ross Perot got 5% of the vote, but I don’t think another billionaire is what anyone is asking for right now. You have two choices: Biden, with all his flaws; or four more years of anti-science policies, including massive regulatory rollbacks and no preparation for public health crises, as well as the crushing of reproductive rights, LGBT rights, anti-discrimination protections, benefits for the poor, and much more. That ain’t a choice.

Michael: I think you made a joke about learning the characters by reading Smart Baseball first.  Seriously though, we can read them in any order right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ivan: What is your most / least favorite and or realistic baseball movie?
Keith Law: Favorite is Sugar. Least favorite is Trouble with the Curve.

Mark W: I didn;t swing by here today to talk COVID, but I wanted to respond to the moving goalposts comment. When we all agreed to stay home to “flatten the curve” we assumed that the Feds would step in, announce a national plan for PPE, Ventilators, testing, contact tracing, etc. Can anyone here explain how the Fed response looks like anything other than a surrender?
Keith Law: (nods)

Robbie: Hey Keith, hope you have been staying healthy! This may take more than a chat to answer but how will a missed year impact teams strategies with their top prospects? Do you think we will see some of them skip stages as they have aged a year while missing a year of development? Or will teams send their top players where to the league that they should be in knowing they lost a possible year of their 20s
Keith Law: Excellent question without an answer.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith –  Given the potential length of this virus’ impact, the “stay at home” orders are tough without an end date in sight, particularly for those struggling financially.  It feels like we have to just sit back and take the hit.  Have you seen any rollout plans by states yet that seem to make sense to you?
Keith Law: Delaware is slowly reopening, allowing some more businesses to do curbside service, while there’s also a plan in place for increased testing and contact tracing. Maybe that’s easier here, in a state with under a million people where the worst outbreak is actually in the rural southern third (especially among immigrant populations, where access to medical care is limited by a number of factors), but that seems like a rational plan that acknowledges the economic hardships many people are facing.

Tom: The MLB draft isn’t the most exciting/watchable event of all time; in this day and age where we are all clamoring anything sports related on tv, anything MLB can do to make the draft more exciting for the casual fan?
Keith Law: Allow trades!

CR: I used to work as a barista back in my college days, but just got back into home espresso as a result of stay-at-home orders. I have a Breville Bambino Plus I’m happy with, and a solid lower mid-level grinder. I was wondering which roasters and blends you’re into, especially if they do mail order. While I have a few local roasters in my area, and some I’ve visited while traveling, I’m always down to try new things and support small businesses in the process. Thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’ve gotten beans during the shutdown from Spiller Park (which sells several roasters’ products), Re-Animator, Intelligentsia, Foxtail, Cartel, and Archetype. All are great.

Zachary: If MLB adds a team, is “Wyverns” a great name, or the best name?
Keith Law: A great name. I’m here for more teams taking nicknames from monsters from D&D. Although I would say the Nashville Gelatinous Cubes might be a bit too far.

Ed: Not trolling here. And as a married man who’s a feminist, I find it a really tough question. But here goes. If sexual assault doesn’t matter to republicans making their choice for president, why should it matter to democrats?
Keith Law: That’s not an unreasonable question, but I would answer that with “When they go low, we go high.” Democrats can still hold themselves to a higher ethical standard. I would argue that the standard might be lower than we’d want, because at some point the standard becomes an obstacle to winning, but it should be higher than the other side’s.

Mike: In a dream scenario, Biden wins with Warren as his VP, day one Biden resigns.  Even with a Dem Congress, could we then follow the New Zealand model and pay people to stay at home for three months to get this thing eradicated?  Or could that never happen in this country?
Keith Law: I can hear the screams of “welfare!” from Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth already.

Brian: I know it’s relative but doesn’t this lost year of development disproportionately hurt guys who are like 23 or 24 and on the cusp but need another year in AA or AAA compared to a teenager who would’ve been in High or Low-A?
Keith Law: Yes, and a lot of college players will be hurt as well, not playing this year and potentially starting their pro careers at 22+ without a single appearance.

Mike: Trump loves to accuse others of doing what he does. The “Obamagate” b.s. accuses Obama of weaponizing the intelligence and law enforcement communities which is what Trump is doing now. How does our national media not hammer him on this?
Keith Law: Gotta present both sides. Or something.

Mike: For those who long for a “sense of normalcy,” get used to the fact that the “normally” you crave isn’t likely to be seen for a long time, if ever.
Keith Law: That might be the most salient point of all: Much of the previous “normal” is gone. And, by the way, once this pandemic is suppressed, there will, at some point, be another one – and that next one could always be deadlier.

Robbie: Not to mention 4 more years of judicial appointments, which alone should have every democrat racing to vote out Trump
Keith Law: That’s the biggest threat to individual rights that I see.

CR: The problem with the people who want to reopen because “real people are hurting” is that they fail to realize the compromise isn’t between people who want to maintain the health and safety of as many people as possible and people who want to reopen to save the economy. The real compromise should be the government stepping up and sending everyone UBI for the duration of necessary stay-at-home period and doing the same for small businesses, enabling everyone to hit a universal pause button until this passes.
Keith Law: That’s New Zealand’s strategy, right? It seems to have worked, although they’re an island nation so their borders are naturally a bit closed.

Jack: I think people don’t realize that a vote for a candidate doesn’t have to mean “I whole-heartedly support everything this person stands for and unequivocally believe they will be the greatest leader in history!” A vote simply means “I have the power to control a very small share of the decision, and I choose to direct it toward this candidate at this time”
Keith Law: Exactly. It is a pragmatic decision.

TomBruno23: No real question right now, simply want to say it’s good to see you doing a Thursday chat. Almost like things are normal for a bit.
Keith Law: Just doing my civic duty.

Factz: Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992
Keith Law: Yes. He was the last candidate to get over 5% of the vote.

Mike: Hope you are staying safe. I saw on a Twitter Luke Little from San Jacinto was up to 105 on some pitches. How is a lefty throwing that hard not a 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Because it’s not real. He’s not throwing in games off a mound.
Keith Law: I’m not sure anyone can actually throw that hard.

TomBruno23: I’m a teacher at a K-8 school in St. Louis City and there are already plans for alternative education plans and settings for the fall. No one has any idea how it will work.
Keith Law: I’ve heard from a friend in Pennsylvania that that’s in the planning stages there too. You have to be ready for any scenario, right?

Chris: How far is Casey martin going to slip? Mariners at 43 seem like a solid floor for him
Keith Law: Not a first rounder. Beyond that, I couldn’t give you a decent answer right now.

Brian: Are we all collectively dumb for arguing over whether or not Yadier Molina is a Hall of Famer? I’ve seen people arguing he’s not by comparing his numbers to Jason Kendall.
Keith Law: I would not vote for him, but the arguments are pretty tired to me. It’s not dissimilar to Vizquel: The stats pretty clearly say “no,” but supporters point to invisible factors to argue for “yes.” That’s like a religious divide – we’re not coming to some middle ground there.

JP: how many __aidens will get drafted this year (Aiden, Brayden, Caiden, Jayden, Rayden, Xaiden)?
Keith Law: This made me laugh.

JP: if seatbelts were just now invented in 2020, could they get 55% of the US population to approve of their use becoming law?
Keith Law: My memory could be off but I vaguely remember blowback when those laws were first passed, and I think there was some strong opposition to the 55 mph nationwide speed limit (which saved a lot of lives, but has since been gradually rolled back).

alex: Would you try Torkelson as a LF?  Martin as a SS?  Or would you stick them at 1b (3b in Martin’s case) and let them rake?
Keith Law: I would try him in LF; don’t think Martin is a shortstop, unless maybe his arm issue was a fluke, and even then I’d probably just leave him at third.

Joeseppi: Please thank TomBruno23 for teaching our kids.
Keith Law: Thank you to all the teachers out there; the ones I’ve seen on Zoom calls and group emails are clearly working as hard as ever, often while taking care of their own young kids at home too.

Karen: The invisible factors on Yadi are like Jim Rice’s fear factor, right?

(Saw this in Twitter recently, took me a half hour of Google searches to figure out why ‘The’ was misspelled intentionally, but holy wow funny).
Keith Law: TEH FEAR … gosh, that’s a trip down online memory lane.

TomBruno23: Can you explain what “Rt” is in regards to COVID-19?
Keith Law: The real-time infection rate. Rt of 1 means every infected person infects one other person. So Rt >1 means the disease is growing, Rt < 0 means it’s going down and will eventually slow/stop. Of course, Rt numbers change too – if you reopen too fast, an Rt below 1 can jump back above.

Mike: Keith, really enjoy the chat. Any idea what Mets are thinking? Due to most top guys in low minors, would they lean towards college kid?
Keith Law: I think more likely college guy, chance for HS bat, highly doubt they’d do a HS arm in the first.

Nate: Is it time to give up on Anthony Alford as a prospect? For a guy who’s always needed as many abs as possible, this situation certainly hasn’t helped but he’s definitely been slipping down lists for a while now.
Keith Law: I feel like his ship sailed, although I hate saying “never” on someone with that much physical ability.

Joeseppi: The refusal by some to vote for Biden is hard for me to understand. I get not liking Biden and I also understand not wanting to put your name on his election. But this isn’t a normal scenario. Am I being obtuse by carrying a ‘Job 1 is get Trump out’ approach to this cycle? It’s really all I care about right now. Hyper-focused on that through November.
Keith Law: Job 1A is then taking the Senate. No small task even before you consider voter suppression efforts in many states with Senate races this year.

JJ: Still don’t get why people think Elizabeth Warren is a viable candidate for VP.  The Democrats have to get the Senate back.  If she resigns from the Senate, her replacement would be appointed by Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, a Republican.  He’s not appointing the nearest Kennedy.  Ergo, her selection as the VP candidate is a non-starter.  Political Science 101.
Keith Law: Any such appointment would only last until a special election, which under Massachusetts law must be held within 160 days of the vacancy.

NYCTim: You said earlier that Biden wasn’t among your Top 10 when the Democrats started. Who were your Top 3 back then?
Keith Law: I was a Warren supporter and I really still am. She has just about everything I could want in a President, and I aligned as well with her policy proposals as with any other candidate. But she didn’t have the one thing voters seemed to want most: She’s not a man.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for popping back in after my long absence; I don’t know when I’ll do the next chat but I will do more between now and the draft, and I’m working on plans with The Athletic for something special on draft night as well. Also, thanks to all of you who’ve bought and read The Inside Game and offered such kind feedback on the book. I’m thrilled that so many of you enjoyed the book. Maybe some day I’ll write another one. Just not right now. Stay safe, everyone.

Stick to baseball, 5/9/20.

I was back writing this week, with three new pieces for The Athletic: how MLB’s decision to cut the draft to five rounds hurts players and the sport; a look back at the 2004 draft and what might have happened had the Padres taken Justin Verlander at #1 overall; and a profile of Dodgers prospect Brandon Lewis, who changed his diet and conditioning habits to transform his body and become a fourth-round pick .

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is now out, and you can buy it anywhere you buy books, like here via bookshop.org, which supports independent bookstores directly or by providing logistics and delivery for them. I’m donating my proceeds from sales of my book through my affiliate account there to charity, sending $100 this week to the Food Bank of Delaware, our local food pantry.

WIRED excerpted part of the first chapter of The Inside Game, on anchoring bias and why it tells us to move to an automated strike zone; the link made Pocket’s Best Of list this week. I also spoke to Inside Science about the book.

I appeared on the Poscast this week with Joe Posnanski and Ellen Adair, which you can listen to on The Athletic, Apple, Spotify, or Stitcher; and on the Inquiring Minds podcast, which you can get on Apple or Stitcher. On The Keith Law Show, I had Meghan Montemurro, our Phillies writer, on to talk about that team and the Athletic’s ongoing OOTP simulation of the 2020 season; you can listen on The Athletic, Apple, Spotify, or Stitcher.

I sent out another edition of my email newsletter this week to subscribers – it’s free, and easy to sign up, and no one has ever complained that I send it too often.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: Donald Trump has long claimed he was a top high school baseball player who was scouted by a couple of MLB teams. Leander Schaerlaeckens looked into this at length for Slate, and found the answer is “not bloody likely.” The piece includes a quote from me in reaction to hearing some of the stats Schaerlaeckens was able to unearth.
  • ExplainCOVID.org is a new site, launched by Emily Oster, Professor of Economics at Brown, and Galit Alter, Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, designed to answer common questions about the virus, how to protect yourself, and what you should (or shouldn’t) believe in the news.
  • The LA Times ran with a story last week about how SARS-CoV-2 had already mutated into a new, more dangerous strain … but that report was wildly premature, says Ed Yong, author of We Contain Multitudes and an essential writer on anything COVID-19 right now.
  • Coronavirus cases continue to spike in Arizona, but the state is already reopening as if everything were fine. This could have a huge impact on MLB’s schedule – it’s hard to imagine the season restarting if Arizona is in an unplayable state.
  • This is after the state government in Arizona told university researchers to stop modeling COVID-19 outcomes and limited the researchers’ access to data, presumably because the models showed the Arizona government to be making reckless policy decisions that will lead to more deaths and serious illnesses.
  • If you’re pushing to reopen the economy, you probably don’t need or care about child care.
  • Texas is also reopening, too soon, and the governor even admitted in a private phone call that the reopening will lead to a new surge in cases. They don’t care how many people die, as long as they’re okay financially.
  • Anti-vaxxers are trying to use COVID-19 to recruit more people to their delusional cause.
  • Why do Republicans keep comparing COVID-19 public health policies to the Nazis? Pennsylvania State Rep. Chris Dush (R) did it, and now multiple Ohio legislators have done the same.
  • A Native American health center in Seattle asked the federal government for COVID-19 medical supplies. The Trump Administration sent them body bags.
  • Mosquitos infected with the fungal parasite Microsporidia MB may have total immunity to the genus of parasites that causes malaria, Plasmodium, notably P. Falciparum, which is the most common and lethal agent of transmission. It’s an early study but notable in that Microsporidia MB has many biological and ‘lifestyle’ similarities to Wolbachia, a gram-negative bacterium that protects mosquitos from many viruses and has potential to limit their ability to spread malarial agents as well.
  • Six people were killed in March 2019 when a flawed pedestrian bridge built by FIU in Sweetwater, Florida, collapsed just five days after it had been raised. FIU just announced plans to replace it, although nobody has actually been held accountable for what appear to be multiple failures in the design and construction process last time around.
  • I felt personally attacked by this (parody) column called “No One Wants to Play Your Weird German Game About Trains, Dude.” Russian Railroads is a fine game and I don’t care what you say.
  • Days of Wonder announced Ticket to Ride: Amsterdam, the third mini-TtR game after New York and London.
  • Two Kickstarters of note: High Noon, a tactical card game that promises to be easy to learn but takes 1-2 hours to play, already passed its goal this week; while the narrative board game Sea of Legends funded in just six hours after launching the same day.

The Parable of the Sower.

I’ve read a lot of science fiction authors, including at least one book by every winner of the Hugo for Best Novel, but had never read anything by Octavia Butler until I read The Parable of the Sower last month. Butler, the most prominent woman of color in sci-fi and a direct inspiration for the highly decorated author N.K. Jemisin, was the first science fiction writer to win a MacArthur “genius” grant, and published 14 novels in her career before her untimely death at age 58 in 2006.

One thing often absent from science fiction novels and short stories, especially those written in the first few decades of the genre, are realistic women characters, something that inspired Butler to start writing her own stories. The Parable of the Sower is narrated by a young woman of color named Lauren who is a “sharer,” born with a condition called hyperempathy syndrome, so when she sees anyone else suffering physical pain she’s hit with the same pain even though she didn’t suffer the injury.

Set in the United States in the 2020s in a post-capitalist collapse that seems like it might have inspired the Purge movies, The Parable of the Sower follows Lauren from her poor but protected compound in southern California on her flight north while she develops her belief system, which she calls “Earthseed.” Her father is a pastor, which is a rare source of guaranteed income in this dystopian economy, but she finds herself unable to believe in his traditional Christian religion, or even in its conception of God, instead writing down verses and descriptions of humans as Earthseed, driving towards a heaven in the stars where man colonizes new planets now that he’s destroyed this one.

The Parable of the Sower is grim and unflinching, especially in its depiction of women as an oppressed underclass in this still-patriarchal facsimile of a society. If you leave the protection of the compound where Lauren and her family live, you put your life at risk; if you do so as a woman, especially alone, you are extremely likely to be sexually assaulted, and Lauren sees multiple women who appear to have been victims of brutal rapes whenever she heads outside of the commune’s walls. In a world where so many people have too little to eat, and very little to lose, and the police are worse than useless, theft is almost expected, and everyone is armed to protect themselves and their property. Butler also adds the wrinkle of a new drug, nicknamed ‘pyro,’ that causes addicts to light fires so they can be mesmerized by watching the flames. This isn’t our world today, but Butler’s prescient writing about the impacts of increased income inequality and food insecurity on top of a country already armed to its teeth feels a lot more possible right now than it would have when she wrote it in 1993 – even before you layer on a global pandemic and the rise of an entire political movement ready to discard tens of thousands of citizens just to goose the stock market.

The Earthseed belief system, which revolves around the idea that God is change and holds that man’s destiny is to colonize the stars, gets some treatment within this book, but the specific tenets are less important than Lauren’s development of the system, and how she uses it to try to build a fledgling community around herself while in flight to northern California. The core idea of Earthseed that God is malleable, and humanity can shape God, conflicts on some level with its idea that God shapes the universe, which I assume Butler would continue to address in the sequel (The Parable of the Talents); even within this book, Lauren is challenged by the people in her ragtag band of followers, who range from ardent skeptics to curious adherents, to explain this and other paradoxes – or even explain why anyone should believe at all in the face of such widespread misery and existential dread.

I read Rivers Solomon’s An Unkindness of Ghosts about a year and a half ago, and was constantly reminded of that book, which also has a young female protagonist struggling against multiple levels of oppression in a dystopian environment, while reading Parable; searching now, I see multiple references to Solomon and their novel as a ‘successor’ to Butler’s work. The connections are undeniable, but it also seems like a reminder that voices like theirs and Jemisin’s remain uncommon in the worlds of science fiction and fantasy writing, and thus these themes of sexism, racism, inequality, and othering are also underrepresented, even as they become so much more prevalent in mainstream literature (e.g., with Colson Whitehead winning two of the last four Pulitzer Prizes for Fiction with novels about race and racism). Butler also wrote with a gritty, unflinching realism that existed in that era but was, at least, outside the more genteel strains of sci-fi that won awards and garnered more attention, a style that probably put her twenty years ahead of her time. It’s a particular shame that she died so young when, if she were alive today, she’d have seen her influence spread so far, and have seen the world of science fiction expand to include voices and styles like hers become not just accepted, but lauded.

Next up: Still reading 24: Life Stories and Lessons from the Say Hey Kid, by Willie Mays and John Shea. John will be on my podcast next week to talk about the book.

Music update, April 2020.

A shorter-than-normal playlist this month as I think the pandemic has played havoc with release schedules and has obviously kept many artists out of the studio, but there are still some strong singles in advance of albums already planned for releases this summer and fall. As always, you can access the playlist directly if you can’t see the widget below.

Iceage – Lockdown Blues. Yep, he’s saying “Covid 19 lockdown blues/the only way out is through.” There have been some regrettable songs written and released during the pandemic; this one is actually good.

Space Above, So Below – Golden. Space Above is former The Naked & Famous keyboardist Aaron Short’s new project, with So Below (singer Maddie North) contributing vocals on many of their songs so far, including this darkly ethereal track.

Khruangbin – Time (You and I). This new single from the Texas-based funk/jazz trio features extensive vocals from Laura Lee Ochoa, a departure from their primarily instrumental work to date, and is the lead single from their third album Mordechai, due out next month.

Village of the Sun – TED. VotS is a new collaboration between Binker and Moses – as in Moses Boyd, whose Dark Matter is my favorite album of the year so far – and Simon Ratcliffe of Basement Jaxx. This track takes its name and inspiration from a song called “Dreamship” by the Ted Moses Quintet, which I only know from googling.

Talk Show – Petrolhead. I’ve enjoyed Talk Show’s snarling mix of classic post-punk sounds, more contemporary rock rhythms, and just a hint of the energy of dance music without heavy electronic elements.

The Wants – Clearly a Crisis. The Wants are pure post-punk, influenced by Gang of Four and other icons of the earliest new wave bands, and it comes through most successfully on this track and “Motor” from their debut album Container.

bdrmm – Happy. A five-piece shoegaze band from Hull, bdrmm released their debut EP If Not, When? in October, and have returned now with this subdued, swirling track that has some early Lush to it with a more upbeat tempo.

Everything Everything – In Birdsong (Edit). Lead singer Jonathan Higgs has described this song’s lyrics as an attempt to capture what it might have been like to be the world’s first self-aware human, although I find it more interesting for the highly textured keyboard layers below Higgs’ falsetto, crescendoing into a sort of wall of sound that seems almost tactile by the end of the song.

Jake Bugg – Saviours of the City. Bugg seems to have come back around to the Dylanesque sounds of his Mercury Prize-nominated self-titled debut album, eight years later, with this second single ahead of his fourth album, which is due out later this year.

The Naked and Famous – Blinding Lights. TNAF’s cover of the Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights,” from his new album After Hours, beats the original for me – not least because of Alisa Xayalith’s voice.

Asylums – A Perfect Life in a Perfect World. The Southend rock quartet have produced a song that sounds like it could have been recorded and released in 1994, and I mean that as a high compliment.

Ministry – Alert Level (Quarantine). I’m not as big a Ministry fan as you might guess from my age and musical tastes, as I find a lot of Al Jourgensen’s work with the band after their shift from new wave to industrial designed more to shock than to entertain. “Alert Level (Quarantine)” is still harsh and abrasive, but also has one of the best guitar riffs of any song in Ministry’s catalog.

Pure Reason Revolution – Ghosts & Typhoons. I don’t know how to categorize PRR’s music, with its peculiar mixture of progressive rock, electronic, and extreme metal elements, often in songs that run six to ten minutes in length, but their new album Eupnea, their first LP in a decade, has really grown on me this year thanks to songs like this and “Silent Genesis.”

Katatonia – The Winter of Our Passion. These Swedish prog-metallers started out as a death metal act but have shifted to clean vocals and doom sounds that sometimes incorporate metal aspects, but often don’t – if you heard this without knowing who the artist was, I doubt you’d call it metal. It’s one of the most accessible things they’ve done but retains the sophistication of their most recent albums.

All Our Names.

Dinaw Mengestu is an Ethiopian-American author of three novels, most recently the 2014 book All Our Names, as well as an essayist and literature professor at Bard College. I’d never heard of him prior to seeing that novel of his show up on sale for the Kindle, and bought it on a whim based on the description and what I could find in a quick search about Mengestu himself. It’s a smart, incisive, and very fast-reading novel of alienation and identity that spans two continents and asks us to examine who we really are.

The novel alternates narratives between those titled Isaac and those titled Helen, but both are connected by a man who came from an unnamed central African country to a midwestern U.S. city as a refugee. In the Isaac sections, two young, poor men, one of whom will eventually flee for America, get caught up in a budding revolution that’s stirring around a university campus where the men hang around but can’t afford to be students. In the chapters titled ‘Helen,’ Isaac, the refugee, and the woman who picks him up at the airport begin a complicated love affair – and, since the novel is set in the 1960s or early 1970s, good ol’ American racism is one of those complications, so Isaac ends up facing threats on both ends of his trip.

Mengestu succeeds here by making both stories equally compelling despite their substantive and dramatic differences. The half of the book set in Africa is fraught with danger as the two boys are swept up by events surrounding them, and eventually join forces with one revolutionary group, so that they’re frequently endangering themselves or merely endangered by their mere existence as young men in a newly independent, barely functioning state. The half set in the United States, by contrast, has very little physical danger; the risk is of an interracial romance in an era and place that did not accept such couples, and of Isaac’s distance from Helen because of the unknowns in his past.

How he ties those two together is enough of a spoiler that I won’t go into it, but it’s clever, and revealed early enough in the novel that you have time to adjust to this new knowledge and reassess what’s come before while still working through the remainders of both stories. It could seem like a gimmick, and it didn’t quite help that I encountered the same gimmick two months earlier in a novel from 2019, but Mengestu makes it work because the eventual revelation makes everything that came before it fit. (I had a suspicion of what was coming a few chapters ahead, so it’s not that big of a spoiler.)

There are just three characters in the book, the two named and the other young man in Africa, with Helen probably the weakest of the three. The two men seem to stand in for the two paths available to young men in such environments, with revolution brewing around them – the true believer, ready to stir up trouble and even take up arms; or the reluctant rebel, seeing no other path out of poverty but hardly believing in the cause of the rebels any more than he believes in the government. Helen comes across more as observer than participant, and it’s never really clear – despite her narration – why she went to bed with Isaac, or how they fell in love. Once there, what follows is far more convincing, but the lead up to that requires some buy-in.

If you accept the twist that ties the two narratives together, All Our Names works as a portrait of a man adrift in two countries, fleeing his homeland, where he couldn’t feel safe, for a new life as a refugee in a country that will always view him as an outsider. It left me hoping Mengestu will return to fiction at some point, as he hasn’t published anything in the six years since this book came out.

Next up: I’m several books behind but right now I’m reading 24: Life Stories and Lessons from the Say Hey Kid, Willie Mays’ and John Shea’s collaboration that’s part autobiography, part biography of the New York/San Francisco Giants great, due out on May 12th.