→ September 4, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 9/4/22.

One new post for subscribers to The Athletic this week, looking at some of the more significant or interesting September callups from the last seven days. Some other good names, like Triston Casas, came up after I wrote it.

My podcast returned this week with Dan Pfeiffer, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama and author of the new book Battling the Big Lie: How Fox, Facebook, and the MAGA Media Are Destroying America. You can subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

And now, the links…

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→ September 3, 2022
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Music update, August 2022.

And we’re back, after I missed a non-December monthly playlist for the first time in something like six or seven years, thanks to the combination of the late draft, trade deadline, Gen Con, and my big family vacation to the UK, so this playlist covers stuff from two months rather than just the one. We’ve got a ton of potentially great new albums and EPs due out the rest of the year, including stuff from the first four artists here, plus something new from the Arctic Monkeys, Suede, Christine & the Queens, Editors, the Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Dry Cleaning, and more. As always, if you can’t see the widget below, you can access the Spotify playlist here.

The Beths – Knees Deep. The Beths have released three fantastic singles ahead of their album, Expert in a Dying Field, due out on the 16th. I have gotten much worse at predicting which bands will break out into broader success, but man, if any band seems poised to do so right now, it’s the Beths.

The Wombats – Is This What It Feels Like to Feel Like This? One of my favorite bands going, the Wombats are putting out a six-track EP in November, just nine months after releasing their latest album, and this title track is a banger.

GIFT – Gumball Garden. The first time I heard this I was sure it was Tame Impala, or a Kevin Parker side project. It’s that precise psychedelic-rock vibe – or you might think DIIV if you’re familiar with them – and the vocalist sounds a good bit like Parker, but there’s no connection. GIFT is a five-piece band from Brooklyn and their debut album, Momentary Presence, is due out on October 14th. I love the whole track but the surprise guitar riff around the 1:35 mark is next-level.

Sports Team – The Drop. Sports Team’s second album, GULP!, is due out on September 23rd, a two-month delay due to production issues, but we’ve got four strong singles from the album now, including this, “R Entertainment,” “The Game,” and “Dig,” showing some versatility beyond their initial art-punk style.

STONE – Waste. Heavy post-punk music from a band led by the son of John Power, former lead singer/guitarist of the La’s (“There She Goes”) and Cast (“Alright,” “Sandstorm”), which is quite the way to rebel against your parents, I guess.

YUNGBLUD – Don’t Feel Like Feeling Sad Today. I’m not a big YUNGBLUD fan but this is a perfect little 2-minute punk-pop song.

The Mars Volta – Blacklight Shine. TMV’s first album in a decade, just called The Mars Volta, will drop on September 16th, and will feature this track as well as their latest release, “Vigil,” both of which are experimental yet also somehow rather accessible.

The Lounge Society – No Driver. This punk/post-punk quartet comprises four teens from Yorkshire who’ve been releasing music since 2020 and just released their debut album Tired of Liberty on Friday.

Young Fathers – Geronimo. The Mercury Prize winners return with their first new music since 2018’s tremendous album Cocoa Sugar, bringing a track that combines multiple genres with just a dash of rap mixed in.

Black Honey – Charlie Bronson. Definitely a rougher edge this time around from the Brighton indie-rockers, although you can still hear their melodic tendencies underneath the grit.

Two Door Cinema Club – Wonderful Life. This Northern Irish band will release its fifth album, Keep on Smiling, on Friday; this lead single came out in mid-July and is more of the electro-pop we’ve come to expect from the trio, maybe skewing a little more towards rock than “I Can Talk” or “Sleep Alone” did.

The Killers – boy. A leftover track from before last year’s Pressure Machine, one that sounds like it belonged on 2020’s Imploding the Mirage.

Martin Courtney – Sailboat. Courtney is the lead singer/guitarist for Real Estate, but released his second solo album, Magic Sign, this summer; this track might be my favorite thing he’s done, a soft psychedelic-rock track that features a perfectly timed guitar riff that elevates the song into something more.

Sam Fender – Alright. A B-side from the Seventeen Going Under sessions, this could easily have appeared on the album, and I do think it’s a good rule of thumb that when an artist’s B-sides are good enough to consider as singles in their own right (or, say, to include on one of my playlists), then the artist is pretty damn good.

Stella Donnelly – How Was Your Day? Donnelly is an acclaimed singer/songwriter in her native Australia, but hasn’t received a ton of attention outside of it, although her quirky vocal style and hooky melodies would fit in well in the British indie scene. Her second album, Flood, dropped a week ago. I am also obligated to mention that, according to Wikipedia, Donnelly’s mother is Welsh.

Rina Sawayama – Catch Me in the Air. Sawayama is a pop artist at heart, and this is one of her most straightforward pop tracks so far, with a big hook in the chorus.

Lizzo – 2 Be Loved (I Am Ready). I thought Special was generally strong, with two big standout tracks in “About Damn Time” and this song, which I think most clearly reflects her work with Prince before he died.

Broken Bells – We’re Not in Orbit Yet… James Mercer (the Shins) and Brian Burton (aka Danger Mouse) are back with their first new music since 2019’s “Good Luck” and first new album since 2014’s After the Disco with a track that reminds me in good ways of “The High Road” off their first record.

Tei Shi – GRIP. Tei Shi ended up in a fight with her old label after they refused to pay her the rest of her advanced for her last album, La Linda, and wrote this song in 2021 about the experience.

Death Cab for Cutie – Here to Forever. DCFC return with their tenth album, Asphalt Meadows, on September 16th, featuring this very upbeat song with an existentialist message as well as “Roman Candles.”

Jack White – A Tip From Me to You. A surprise second album from White, Entering Heaven Alive, dropped in July, this one more acoustic/downtempo and less experimental than this spring’s Fear of the Dawn.

The Linda Lindas – Tonite. The Linda Lindas are media darlings, which makes me worry their label (or manager) will turn them into some bland pop act, which is largely what happened to the Donnas back in the 1990s. This is a cover of a Go-Go’s song the Lindas often cover live, and it’s a great version, but ironic because the Go-Go’s were also co-opted by the mainstream music industry.

The Front Bottoms – More than It Hurts You. From their new EP Theresa, this track feels like a throwback to the earliest days of emo, with the overly earnest vocal delivery but an inherent pop sensibility underneath the emo trappings.

Muse – Kill or Be Killed. I fell off the Muse bandwagon probably around The Resistance in 2009, although I’d been a big fan of their earliest work, and this track has a strong “Muscle Museum” or “Cave” vibe to me, so maybe they’re going back to their roots a little bit.

Archers of Loaf – In the Surface Noise. I wasn’t a big Archers of Loaf fan in their 1990s heyday, but they are about to release their first new album in 24 years, Reason in Decline, on October 21st, and I do like this vaguely psychedelic-rock track.

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→ August 30, 2022
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SCOUT.

SCOUT was one of the three finalists for this year’s Spiel des Jahres award, losing out on the honor to the great game Cascadia, and just became widely available in the U.S. this summer with a new print run. It’s a small-box game from the Japanese publisher Oink, whose other tiny-box games include Deep Sea Adventure and A Fake Artist Goes to New York, and is their best title yet – a smart, abstract card game that’s very easy to teach but offers huge replay value.

In SCOUT, players receive hands from a deck of cards numbered from 1 through 10, with two numbers on each card, so it has a different value depending on its orientation. The dealer deals out the entire deck of 45 cards (removing a few for player counts below 5), and each player looks at their hand without rearranging any cards. You have to fight that instinct to sort them, which is difficult for most people. You can only flip your entire hand upside down, so you have two choices for your starting hand.

During the game, players will try to play sets (cards with the same value) or runs (cards in sequential value, ascending or descending) of greater value than whatever set/run is currently on the table, playing only cards that are adjacent within their hands. A set beats a run, if the number of cards in each is the same; a set or run of more cards than what’s currently on the table always wins; and if the type and number are the same, you need higher card values to beat the active set/run. So two 9s beats two 8s, a 5-4-3 run beats a 4-3-2 run, but a 9-8 run doesn’t beat a 2-2 set.

If you can play something better than what’s on the table, you take the current active set/run and put them face down in front of you, earning one point per card thus captured at the end of the round. If you can’t or don’t want to beat the active set/run, you can “scout,” taking one card from either end of the active group (but not the middle) and putting it in your hand, anywhere your like, oriented either way. The player who played that active set/run then receives a one-point token from the supply. This is the key to the game – taking the right cards to create new sets or runs in your hand, and doing so in a way that can create further sets or runs when you remove other cards by playing them.

Each player also has one “scout and show” token, usable once per round, where they can do both actions in the same turn – take one card from the table, then play a new set or run to beat and capture the active one. The round ends when one player has no hand cards remaining, or if all players scout and the turn passes back to the player who originally played the set/run on the table. Players get one point per captured card, one per token received from other players scouting their cards, and then deduct one point for every card left in their hand (except for the player whose set/run ended the round). The game continues with one round per player, so everyone gets to be the start player once, after which you add up all your points from all rounds.

SCOUT is incredibly easy to teach, and quick to play, working really well at 4-5 players; I actually haven’t tried it with 2, because there are a bunch of extra rules that I think will make it far less fun and simple. There’s some strategy to when you choose to take cards, and how you integrate them into your hand to create new sets/runs and perhaps set up further sets/runs after you’ve played something, while you also have to keep an eye on opponents’ hands to see if anyone is getting close to playing their last card. Full games take a half hour or so once everyone has the hang of things. The list price is $23, but Oink’s second printing of SCOUT sold out almost immediately; I sprinted to their booth on my first day at Gen Con to secure a copy because I was sure this would happen. If you can get a copy somehow, or are willing to wait for the next print run, it’s a definite winner, with bonus points for the easy teach and for its portability.

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→ August 28, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 8/28/22.

I jumped right back into the minor league thing this week, and have a new scouting notebook for subscribers to the Athletic, with notes on Anthony Volpe, Ricky Tiedeman, Orelvis Martinez, Everson Pereira, Quinn Priester, Jackson Holliday, and many more players.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the 2021 Kennerspiel des Jahres finalist Lost Ruins of Arnak, a great midweight game that looks like it’s going to be complex but plays simpler than that, combining a lot of common mechanics for a game that’s more than the sum of its parts.

My podcast will return on Monday, and my newsletter will return this week as well.

And now, the links..

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→ August 25, 2022
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Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Everything Everywhere All At Once is a madcap adventure, a martial-arts action film, a dark comedy, a sci-fi romp, bursting at every seam with ideas and dad jokes. It’s a brilliant work of screenwriting, carried by a career performance from the always wonderful Michelle Yeoh – who nearly wasn’t even in the film. (You can rent it on Amazon, Google Play, iTunes, etc.)

The film, written and directed by the Daniels (Kwan and Scheinert, who also directed the bawdy video for Lil Jon’s “Turn Down for What”), follows Evelyn (Yeoh), a harried, unhappy laundromat owner, married to the hapless Waymond (Ke Huy Quan). They have a daughter, Joy (Stephanie Hsu), and Evelyn’s estranged father, Gong Gong (James Hong, who turned 91 during filming), who is just arriving from Hong Kong. Evelyn is preparing a welcome party for her father while also staring down piles of receipts for an upcoming IRS audit (with Jamie Lee Curtis playing the tax authority’s agent). It’s clear that Evelyn is unhappy across the board in her life, but while the two are in the elevator at the IRS offices, Waymond suddenly changes and begins telling Evelyn that theirs is just one universe among many in the multiverse, and in his (the Alphaverse), people can verse-jump, gaining special skills from their parallel selves – but one person, Jobu Tupaki, has used this to accumulate immense power and is threatening to destroy all universes at once. It’s up to Evelyn, our universe’s Evelyn specifically, to save them all.

Part of the genius of this script is its combination of highbrow philosophical questions with lowbrow humor. The difference between existentialism and nihilism, with the former holding that the only meaning in life is created by the individual while the latter views life as meaningless, full-stop, is at the core of the movie; Jobu Tupaki sees and experiences all universes simultaneously, and thus believes that there is no meaning anywhere, only pain. (I don’t think there’s a Major League reference here, but I also wouldn’t say it’s impossible given some of the other allusions here, including one to a 1990s alternative song that is so perfectly integrated into the dialogue I had to pause the movie just to admire it.) Jobu is the film’s Bazarov, accumulating followers in a sort of nihilist cult, even as she seems to be speeding towards her own destruction.

The Daniels originally envisioned Jackie Chan in the main role, but rewrote the script to make the lead character a woman, with Yeoh their first choice, and the decision to re-center the film around not just a woman but a mother and an immigrant changes one of the film’s core messages. Evelyn is asked to run the family business and manage the family, to handle the finances and the relationships and organize this ridiculous party for a father who disowned her decades earlier when she chose Waymond and his dubious financial prospects against her parents’ wishes. Of course she has to save the universe: She’s a mother. If this wasn’t written as a commentary on the modern working American mother, who is expected to do it all and 20% more, it sure as hell plays like one – and Yeoh never lets us forget it, with an undercurrent of stress on her face throughout almost the entire movie. It’s a tour de force of a performance, one that lets her show tremendous range, and I’m going to hazard the opinion that it’s the best thing she’s ever done, even though I know I haven’t seen most of her performances because she’s been extensively pigeonholed since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Look at her filmography – it’s a sad commentary on the industry’s narrow view of Asian-American actors, and I haven’t even mentioned that this is Quan’s first film role in 20 years after he retired due to the lack of interesting parts offered to him.

The movie is also highly, consistently funny, from the allusions to wordplay to some gross-out jokes to some of the bizarre parallel universes we see, like the one where people have hot dogs for fingers, or the one where there are no people, just rocks. The sheer audacity of much of the humor, often right in the middle of a huge action sequence or a big emotional scene, helps some of the goofier jokes land, and even makes what is probably the grossest gag in the film much more acceptable. It feels like a film written by two people who never said no to the other’s wackiest ideas, and in this milieu, where we’re suspending disbelief to allow for its premise of travel between parallel universes, that sort of humor is almost a requirement. I do think the Daniels missed an opportunity by not having Eels or at least Mark Oliver Everett on the soundtrack, though.

I thought the story here ended exactly where it should, and the script gets to that point in a reasonable and not too predictable fashion, although it does involve a big downshift from the intensity of the first ¾ of the film. There’s yet one more theme that comes up in the back half of the film that further informs the ending, although discussing that would involve a significant spoiler; I’ll go as far as saying that I thought that was handled perfectly and hope those of you who’ve seen it know what I’m addressing. I doubt I’m going to find ten films this year that I liked more than this, or five performances by actresses I like more than Yeoh’s. It’s just a fantastic film in almost every way.

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→ August 20, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 8/21/22.

I’m returning from a long vacation to England and Wales, one in which I was barely online and enjoyed this tremendously. A couple of folks reached out to see if my absence from the internet was due to something unfortunate, and I appreciate that you checked in.

Before I started this break, I had a slew of articles for subscribers to The Athletic, including a ranking of the top 60 prospects in the minors that included recent draftees; some thoughts on which teams did best and worst at the trade deadline; and breakdowns of the Juan Soto trade, the Frankie Montas trade; the Josh Hader trade; and some smaller deals from that final day. I held a Q&A at the Athletic on August 1st.

Before this vacation, I took a few days to head to Indianapolis to go to Gen Con, the largest board game convention in North or South America, and wrote about it in two posts for Paste – one ranking the ten best games I played there, and another discussing everything else I tried or saw. I also reviewed the very disappointing new Stranger Things game, Attack of the Mind Flayer.

My podcast will return this upcoming week, as will my newsletter.

And now, the links…

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→ July 22, 2022
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Los Angeles eats, 2022 edition.

I’ll start with the two remarkable meals I had in Los Angeles, starting with Pizzeria Sei, which has already received quite a bit of good press for their incredible “Tokyo-style Neapolitan” pizzas. I had the funghi, with fior di latte, several types of mushrooms, entire cloves of garlic, pecorino, oregano, and thyme. This might be in the top five of pizzas I’ve ever had, from the ingredients to that incredible, airy dough, perfectly baked, just a little charred on the edges and spotted on the underside. I did take the garlic cloves off before eating it, because I am a 49-year-old man who will sweat garlic out of my pores for two days if I eat all that, but the garlic/thyme flavor combination is one of my favorites to have with mushrooms – and those were exceptionally high quality, with cremini, shiitake, and I’m pretty sure porcini on there. I would eat any pizza these folks make given how good the dough is.

Sushi-Tama was my splurge meal for the trip, which I think I earned after we got through ten rounds. It’s one of those sushi places where the fish arrives daily on planes from Japan (and, as my server informed me, elsewhere around the world) and where the staff all pronounces everything as if they’re native speakers. I stuck to nigiri and a mozuku seaweed salad, which was itself unlike any other seaweed salad I’d ever had. It wasn’t bright green and vaguely briny, but dark olive (I’ve had that before) and extremely vinegary. Enough about the seaweed, though … the fish was comparable to the best I’ve ever had. I would especially recommend the kinme dai, golden eye snapper served with a little lime zest and salt. Its slightly higher oil content gave it more flavor than the madai, true snapper that was one of the daily specials. I also tried the nogoduro, fresh sea perch that they serve lightly seared, a new fish to me; the anago, salt-water eel; and the medium-fatty tuna, which the server actually recommended even over the much more expensive, fattier tuna cut. Twelve pieces of nigiri plus the seaweed salad was under $100, which I think is a bargain by L.A. standards.

Tacos Baja was my first meal after landing, Enseneda-style tacos, burritos, and other dishes mostly revolving around fried shrimp and fish. I kept it simple, getting two fish tacos with beans and rice. The fish was baja-style (of course), very crispy with a beer batter, served with a giant amount of shredded cabbage, salsa, and white sauce. There was so much stuff on the taco I could barely fold the thing, but the important part is that the fish was good and perfectly fried so it stayed moist in the center. I probably should have skipped the rice and beans and tried another taco. They have three locations, one in LA proper and two in Whittier.

Ronan on West Melrose is a pizzeria with a bunch of small plates and three other mains on the menu, although I was just there for the pizza. Ronan’s dough is actually lighter and fluffier than Sei’s, or really any Neapolitan place I have tried – enough that I’m not sure you’d even call it Neapolitan any more, although it’s still great, just too airy for that style. I had the Sweet Cheeks – guanciale, ricotta forte, and black pepper honey. It was sort of a salt-and-pepper bomb, although that was good after I’d been out at the Futures Game for several hours. The dough was the real star, though. I felt like I just had delicious salty bread for dinner. With a little bacon. It turns out that the owner of Pizzeria Sei previously worked at Ronan, although I think he’s surpassed his former employers.

Angry Egret Dinette is set back in a courtyard off Broadway in the Old Chinatown neighborhood of Los Angeles, so it’s not visible from the road, which meant I drove past it twice before just parking and walking to find it. This Beard-nominated spot has a large patio seating area and a take-out window, offering breakfast, lunch, and dinner, with inside seating available at some point in the past but perhaps not currently. I went with their shrimp po’boy, fried shrimp (and a lot of them) with cabbage slaw, salsa negra, pico de gallo, and avocado. Salsa negra is made from chiles mecos, a type of chipotle pepper, which is itself a dried and smoked jalapeño; mecos are ripened for a longer period, giving them a deeper red color, and then smoked for a longer period as well. To make salsa negra, you fry the chiles mecos in oil for several minutes until they turn dark brown, and then add garlic, salt, sugar, at the very least, with some recipes calling for vinegar, cumin, other spices, even soy sauce. Whatever Angry Egret uses, my Italian-American palate was not ready for that heat – this was very spicy, delicious, but whoa boy that was hot. The shrimp were quite fresh and fried just enough to cook them, still tender throughout. I liked this combination of flavors but I can’t pretend I tasted everything with my face on fire.

One breakfast spot to recommend – Aroma Tea & Coffee, which offers a smoked salmon “stack,” their take on a benedict that replaces that awful Canadian ham product with smoked salmon and replaces the English muffin with a crispy potato pancake. I’ve had this combination before, including over at Square One in LA, and I’ll never not order this if I see it on a menu. The salmon here was solid, which is the main differentiator – if that’s not up to par, the whole dish fails.

I did try two coffee places recommended by a friend in the specialty coffee business. Kumquat, over in Highland Park, brings in specialty coffees from small roasters all over the country, and focuses on espresso rather than brewed coffee, although they do offer a drip coffee each day. They do a daily blend for their regular espresso and a single-origin espresso that changes daily. I love the space, but there’s no indoor seating at the moment, just a shaded patio. They also offer some baked goods; I enjoyed the blueberry cornmeal scone, which was nice and crumbly and not too sweet, so it didn’t overpower the coffee. Go Get Em Tiger has multiple locations and a sizable food menu, although I just had a drip coffee, their Ethiopia Yukro, a tart, fruity coffee that’s less citrusy than beans from other Ethiopian regions that I’ve tried. They don’t have wifi, if you’re curious, which did matter as I was trying to work on draft recaps by that point, although I still recommend the coffee.

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→ July 17, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 7/16/22.

My fourth and (almost) final mock draft is now up for subscribers to The Athletic, as is my final Big Board ranking the top 100 prospects, and scouting reports on 36 more guys outside of that list. I held a short Klawchat on Thursday, and will do Q&As on the Athletic’s site Sunday and Monday. I’ll also have a Futures Game recap on the site on Sunday morning.

Let’s get right to the links this time…

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→ July 14, 2022
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Klawchat 7/14/22.

I’ve got a new mock draft up for subscribers to the Athletic, a ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft class with scouting reports on each, and another file with scouting reports on 30+ additional players in this draft. I’ll post a final mock on Saturday morning, a Futures Game recap that night, and then draft analysis starting Sunday night.

Keith Law: And other times I feel like I should go. Klawchat.

Carl: Do you think more teams will do deals like the Braves just made with the Royals to get a high draft pick?
Keith Law: Most teams value the picks more highly than KC seems to have valued this one. I think there are more buyers than sellers, so to speak. That also tells me that MLB needs to wake up and make all picks tradeable – even this minor trade got quite a bit of attention.

Josh Smith: What should do the Mets do with Francisco Alvarez considering their lack of production at catcher and DH? What is the ETA for him?
Keith Law: I don’t know about his defense being ready for the majors … my take from seeing him a good bit last year and talking to scouts this year is that it’s probably not, and that’s before you consider who he might be catching for the Mets. But the bat would be valuable right now if you could live with him developing on defense.

Deke: I got a promoted ad on Facebook today that said if you took Tylenol multiple times during pregnancy and your child has autism, you may be entitled to compensation. Sooooo, new nonsense conspiracy theory just dropped.
Keith Law: Facebook’s “efforts” to fight disinformation are just laughable. We need to accept they don’t care and deal with them accordingly.
Keith Law: (I just finished reading Dan Pfeiffer’s Battling the Big Lie, and he makes some rather pointed arguments about Facebook being worse than pretty much any other site for this.)

TomBruno23: I have asked about Christian Little before because he is a local kid and I follow his career…put up a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 with Cotuit and is transferring to LSU under Wes Johnson. What is a reasonable expectation for him 2023 and going forward?
Keith Law: Yep, for folks who don’t know, Little matriculated early at Vanderbilt, even though he might have been a first-round pick out of HS. By forgoing the draft, he gave up a shot at probably $2-3 million and the benefit of professional coaching. He hasn’t been anywhere near expectations since going to school. Maybe the new program turns it around, but it’s not like Vandy is some slouch at developing pitching, either. I don’t rank guys a year out for the draft but if he were in this year’s class he wouldn’t be on my top 100.

John: What is your overall assessment of Elly De LA Cruz? Considering it’s likely his biggest shortcoming, how much improvement would you like to see with his plate discipline to where it wouldn’t be a major concern?
Keith Law: He’s a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Probably the best pure athlete in the minors. Has risk, for sure, but the upside is absurd.

Deke: The winner of the 2024 presidential election is…
Keith Law: TBD.

John: If you could use the information you now know, and go back and re-rank your pre-season top 10, how different would it look?
Keith Law: Pro prospects? I don’t think there’s a huge difference in the order of a top 10 – people get way too caught up in specific rankings, and don’t spend enough time reading what I write about each player. The only one I don’t feel great about now is Torkelson. I should have listened to my instincts more there and had him lower, out of the top 10.

MJ: Thoughts on Max Castillo? Has he shown enough to make you think he can be at least a 4/5 starter type?
Keith Law: No chance. Below average fastball and bad delivery for a starter.

Dave: Is the answer to the question who will be the first one to the majors from this years draft anyone other than Kumar Rocker or he is a certainty to be the first one.  Does he make it this year?
Keith Law: I think so – the team that takes him will likely be the one that views him as a potential reliever for September.

Paul: Any reason to think the same thing could happen to Rocker again this year after a team looks at his medical records? I’m still wondering what could have been so bad that the Mets didn’t want anything to do with him. (I’d assume even if it were something required TJ surgery they’d still have signed him.)
Keith Law: I agree that if it were just TJ they would have worked it out – they took JT Ginn after TJ and paid him. Rocker also had a minor shoulder operation last fall, so that’s also an indicator that it wasn’t just some minor elbow thing. But I think someone will bite this time around because everyone has more information than they did last year.

Mason: The A’s have gambled on high risk, high reward talents in recent years (Beck, Murray) b/c they can’t afford top end talents in the open market. By that logic, would Prielipp at #19 make sense? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Haven’t heard them with him at all, but yes, your logic is sound. They almost always do it with hitters, rather than pitchers. Puk is the last pitcher they took in the first round at all.

Chris: What are your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez?  It looks like he’s going to be a super star, but maybe some of this is unsustainable.
Keith Law: Superstar. Stays in CF, which I did not believe would be the case out of last season. He’s gotten faster, which is very unusual, and done great work to avoid becoming too big, something I did worry about with his frame.

Ben: If Dylan Crews were in this draft, around what pick would he go?
Keith Law: The corner bats are mostly in the 10-25 range. He’d be near the top of that.

JT: Is it fair for me to think of the Montoyo firing as “you can’t fire the players”? I know my fellow Blue Jays fans had some quibbles with his in-game management style, but by all accounts, he seemed very well respected and capable.
Keith Law: I thought Kaitlyn McGrath’s piece was very good, but also made the team’s reasons for firing Montoyo seem pretty shallow. Maybe something else will become public eventually but my take was yours – this was a “we can’t fire the players” firing.

Bucco Brad: As a pirates fan when should I expect this team to compete for a playoff berth again?
Keith Law: I think you’re 3+ years from that.

Nate: Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!
Keith Law: He’s a great story – signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year – and definitely a prospect but there’s too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.

Mike: How do you explain the success of the M’s and O’s? Legit or SSS?
Keith Law: Winning streaks are nothing but SSS. They have no predictive value.

Kyle: Sam Horn going to Mizzou?
Keith Law: I assume so. I wrote about him in the extra capsules page linked up top. He’s already in Columbia for football stuff.

Miguel: Are you as high on Gunnar Henderson as others seem to be?
Keith Law: I don’t know what that means exactly. I think he’s a top 15 prospect in baseball if you view him as a 3b, where he’s a ++ glove.

Stephen: As a Royals fan I’m pretty embarrassed today. How do you think the org is viewed by the rest of the league after this? I know the news  is less than 24 hours old, but curious if you’ve heard anything.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything, but I don’t understand people blaming the org for the idiocy of the players.

Drewy: Bo Naylor appears to have figured it out. Is he back on your radar, having fallen off your top 100 list in recent editions?
Keith Law: Yes.

Booby M: Who do you see the Yankees connected with at pick 25?
Keith Law: See my mock draft linked up top.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s your opinion on Spencer Horwitz? MLB bat, or fringey reliever trade bait?
Keith Law: The latter. Can’t hit LHP, not enough thump for a no-position platoon guy.

Brett: Last year we had some surprises in the top 10, do you see that happening again? And who could potentially sneak in the top 10 that’s not being mocked there?
Keith Law: Yes. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Justin Crawford, Brandon Barriera, or Dylan Lesko end up in the top 10 with under-slot deals.

Zac: What is Cam Collier’s floor in the draft? On the athletic you wrote his ceiling but I didn’t see what his floor would be?
Keith Law: I don’t put floors for every player – I have to hear that such-and-such a team would not pass on a player. In the unlikely event he gets to 11, I believe the Mets would just take him.

Slurpie: I thought Johan Rojas’ promotion was too aggressive considering his performance, but all the numbers seem to be really good so far at the new level. Do you think he’s back on a good trajectory?
Keith Law: Rojas’ batted ball data was better than his results in high A, but also this is a really small sample size and Reading (AA) is the best hitters’ park in the Eastern League.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a favorite college stadium to scout players? How about a favorite college town on your scouting list?
Keith Law: Nashville and Louisville, if you’re considering cities. If you’re talking actual college towns, I love Charlottesville and Athens.

Darren: Should I stop kidding myself that Will Benson has figured something out and may still have a chance to be a MLB option?
Keith Law: It might just be the switch to a different baseball in AAA. A lot of hitters seem to have “figured something out” by moving to triple A this year and I don’t know how we could easily tell which is which.

Moe Mentum: Have you explored/read any of the winners (or finalists) of the Thurber Prize for American Humor? Would any have been worthy of study in your favorite undergraduate course “Comedy and the Novel” (though the Prize wasn’t established until after you graduated)?
Keith Law: That’s all nonfiction, I believe. That class I always talk about was just fiction.

Jon: Quinn Priester’s curveball looked pretty damn pretty in his last outing. Slower start to him for the season, but does he still have #2/3 starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes, he had an oblique strain, I believe, nothing that would change his upside.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Trey Faltine? I assume he’s expected to be drafted and sign this year but is his bat going to be good enough in pro ball?
Keith Law: He struck out 104 times this spring. I don’t think I’d even draft him this year, not as a junior who I presume would want to be paid enough to get him to forgo his senior year.

Joshua: You’ve stated the Nats don’t really keep their draft intentions too hidden, and you have them taking Kevin Parada. To the best of your knowledge is there a realistic player they would take over him or who they would take if Parada is off the board? Thanks.
Keith Law: Elijah Green isn’t out of the question but right now I think he goes ahead of them.

Alex: Does the ability to get paid for NIL have any impact on mid to late round Juniors from signing and instead going back to school?
Keith Law: Don’t know of that specifically but there’s a rumor Paxton Kling pulled his name out of the draft to go to LSU in part because he has some NIL money lined up. Good for him, if so.

Mark: Best board game you’ve played in the past 6 months?
Keith Law: Three Sisters.
Keith Law: New game, i assume you mean.

Michael: When do we get to see your midseason top-50? One of the things I look forward to most every year – thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: After the draft, so I can include those guys.

David: Who are some HS players you could see making it to the Cubs at pick 47, that would be solid value?
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That’s way too far down the draft for a prediction, and I don’t want to just give you a WAG.

Tom: i’m excited to see your thoughts on Dustin Saenz and Jeremy de la rosa now that they’re in wilmington
Keith Law: Trust me, I’m excited they’re here. The Blue Rocks lineup was … not an area of strength.

John B: Thank you for all the great info.  I wanted to make sure I am clear on something you said on a recent Nats podcast.  Paraphrasing here, but you made it sound like if Jones, Holliday, and Parada are gone that they would take a college player with a lower ceiling.  I am curious who to look for in that situation.  Neto?  Cross?  Jung?  Also would not signing the pick and getting #6 in 23 be worth considering?  Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that. Also, not signing the pick is never worth considering. People suggest it every year and it is always a terrible idea. It’s a full year of wasted value. If it happens organically, like the Mets/Rocker, fine, but you never do this by choice. Unless you want the next scouting director to get the extra pick!

Aaron: What are some reasonable expectations for Zach Neto and Brooks Lee? Worried the Cubs are again going hit tool + makeup over upside
Keith Law: Regular at shortstop and above-average regular at 2b or 3b, respectively. Full scouting reports available in the top 100 link at the top of the chat.

T: Where would you rank Kevin Parada if at the end of the day if his arm is not good enough to be a 1st division catcher? Or better said, Kevin Parada’s bat at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Arm isn’t going to keep anyone from being a catcher any more. There isn’t enough baserunning for that. And I don’t think Parada has to move off C for his glove.

Chad: They don’t have the #1 pick to have the huge bonus $ this year, but do you think the Bucs will try to use the draft this weekend in similar ways to last year? Would Termarr Johnson be a guy that might take a cut to help out going over slot with the next couple picks?
Keith Law: I don’t know bonus expectations for Termarr (or most players, really). The Pirates do have an extra pick at 36, though, and could get creative with that – going under slot at 4 to go over for some HS player who gets to the later pick. My guess is several teams go after that type of player in the 31-39 range.

David: Hi Keith, Thanks for all the great draft work. I’ve been impressed with Oneil Cruz’s defense at short stop, although my expectations were low. Do you think he could stay there for at least a few years before moving to the outfield?
Keith Law: They may choose to leave him there but I think he’s best suited to another position.

Walshy: Aaron Ashby ever a guy that will get to 5 or 6 innings consistently or better in smaller spurts? The stuff and K rates are absurd.
Keith Law: don’t think he’ll have the command for that.

Grover: I recall you weren’t bullish on Julio Urias being able to come back after his shoulder injury (I wasn’t either) but was this basically an outlier/one in a million type of thing or are we reaching a point with those types of shoulder injuries that they are more recoverable in the same way we started to see with elbow injuries in the last decade or so?
Keith Law: Extreme outlier – I think he’s the only pitcher ever to come back from that injury/surgery and hold up as a starter.
Keith Law: Which is good news, but one exception does not disprove the rule.

Clay, Rutherford: Have you had a chance to see Myrtle Beach SS Kevin Made in action? 19 years old, has hit 9 HR this year in an offensively repressed league, is walking about five times as often as he did last year, and carries a .975 fielding percentage at SS (I know, not a great measure of defensive prowess, but still).
Keith Law: Saw him in the spring. The boosted walk rate is great news and a surprise, as I thought he was a good bit behind even his teammates in that regard. That club is pretty loaded with hitting prospects.

Tom: Ok ok i’m prepared to get denied here, but can we at least say Nats Luis Garcia is a regular?
Keith Law: Based on what? Sub 0 WAR again this year, 2 BB and 30 K so far in the majors.

Tim: Does Strider’s slider play up because of how good his fastball is? His slider is running a pretty high whiff rate despite reports of it being a below average pitch
Keith Law: Yes, the fastball has exceptional vertical movement. Great piece by Justin Choi on Fangraphs today about it.

ProjectHanyo: So with the Paxton Kling news that he will skip the draft and go to LSU, I saw a comment that one should go to colleges like Vandy or LSU than pro ball because of the minor league life is horrible and college life is great and among your peers, and MLB training staffs are 1/100th of the value of the training staffs of LSU or Vandy’s. I facepalmed so hard, surely MLB teams can’t be that incompetent not to mention the other stuff
Keith Law: College is right for some guys. It’s not right for everyone. That’s certainly not true about training staffs, but I think there is – or was, with this silly realignment happening – an argument that the life of a college player is easier than the life of a minor league player when it comes to travel.

Frank: When Henry Davis was selected last year there was some question if he could stick behind the plate.  Is there any question now that he will be a full time catcher or does that question still remain?
Keith Law: I never had that question about his glove, so of course I’m saying no, there’s no question now.

Guest: Is there any defense for Shane McClanahan not being the ASG starter?
Keith Law: That the all-star game is a silly marketing event and we shouldn’t care about it? OK fine there’s no defense.

Ian: Is Enrique Bradfield Jr. as good as he is fun to watch? Not sure how he profiles as a pro.
Keith Law: Yes. He’ll be in the 1-1 discussion next year, I think.

Rob: Thanks for answering my question re Blaze Jordan on The Athletic. Although he was known for power as a prep you mentioned we’re not seeing it now. I would have thought this (presumed) emphasis on contact would be part of the development process and that not showing power wouldn’t be a concern. Am I misunderstanding? Was there a swing change to emphasize contact that makes his power inaccessible or is there still a chance all of his skills consolidate?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice now. That swing isn’t going to produce game power.

Larry: Is Jobe going to be an ace? How is his stuff looking in the limited innings
Keith Law: It’s been down. Multiple scouts have told me more mid-rotation guy, like 3rd/4th starter, based on what they’ve seen this year. Could always come back.

Jeff: Should Orioles look to still sell Santander or Mancini?  Stay the course?  Not sure they should be buyers.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t let a winning streak divert them from their long-term plan. They should sell opportunistically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this chat, as I have a radio hit right now. I’ll do a Q&A over at The Athletic on Sunday afternoon and again at some point on Monday once the draft has begun. Thank you as always for all of your questions!

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→ July 9, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 7/9/22.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I wrote another scouting blog, looking at some Phillies, Orioles, Nats, and White Sox prospects, including the four big arms the Phillies had at Jersey Shore; and did a quick breakdown of some of the highlights and omissions from the Futures Game rosters. I’ll have an updated, final Big Board for the draft on Sunday, and then a new mock draft on Monday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Ouch!, a fun, silly game for kids as young as five, and pointed out why it works where games like Candyland, my bête noire among children’s board games, fail.

My guest on the Keith Law Show this week was Eric Longenhagen, for an extensive conversation about this month’s MLB draft. You can subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I found my voice again and sent out a new edition of my free email newsletter this week. Also, my two books, Smart Baseball and The Inside Game, are both available in paperback, and you can buy them at your local independent book store or at Bookshop.org.

And now, the links…

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