Klaw: In a world of steel-eyed death, there’s Klawchat.

Jonathan: Do you put Reyes in the rotation to start 2017?
Klaw: I assume this means Alex; I don’t, for two reasons. One is that I don’t think I would count on him for 180+ innings in 2017, given his low workloads the last two years. The other is that I don’t think his command is there yet, or his curveball, for him to be more than an inconsistent, sometimes great, sometimes awful starter right now. Long relief would be great to start the year with the goal of moving him to the rotation by June or so.

Jeremy: What do you make of Taijuan Walker’s 2016? Do you have any confidence that will be a top 40 starter next year?
Klaw: I think the probability of him working out as a starter has dropped to below 50% at this point.

Seth: What are the benefits, if any, to a GM not stating their intent to buy or sell in an offseason?
Klaw: None that I know of. Some signaling has value; this does not.

Mets Daddy: Better career: Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo?
Klaw: I’d bet on Gsellman at this point. Lugo’s high spin rate hasn’t translated into production yet.

Jon: Oh, thank goodness. I was worried I would have to go a whole week without knowing the answer…given his performance in the AFL so far, has your opinion of Tebow changed? 🙂
Klaw: Saw him last night. He doesn’t belong here. It’s a bad joke.

TK: May Even Year Magic rot in hell, never to be seen again.
Klaw: I was getting tired of the woo arguments for the Giants and for Bumgarner. He’s a great pitcher; let’s stop conferring preternatural abilities on him.

Jack: What are that odds that Yadier Alvarez gets called up at some point next season? 7 Ronin came in the mail yesterday. I am looking forward to breaking it out.
Klaw: Great arm, but he made 9 starts in full-season ball this year. I don’t see any chance of that. 7 Ronin is great – hope you enjoy it as much as we do.

Colin: How can the USA, and the republican party recover from the toxicity of Donald Trump
Klaw: My hope all year has been that he would lose badly enough that the GOP would lose at least one chamber of commerce, and the resulting upheaval inside the party would force out some of his enablers (like Reince) and restore the more classical conservatives to power. Until the Republicans catch up to 2016 on some basic social issues, we’re not going to have two viable choices for major offices in most of the country. You can’t keep fighting marriage equality, pushing ‘gay conversion therapy,’ or passing these so-called ‘bathroom bills’ (that really forbid local authorities from providing LGBT with protection from discrimination), in a nation that is increasingly more tolerant on social matters but where conservative positions on economic or foreign policies remain popular.

Sam: What is Michael Kopech’s ceiling?
Klaw: I’ll see him Saturday and will have an updated answer then. I can tell you though that he has some plus-plus hair. He’s going for the Syndergaard look.

@OutfieldGrass24: Hey Keith, big thanks for your time as always. Who are a couple of lower level D-backs that are future big leaguers for you. I’m fully prepared for you to respond with “none,” but my blind, very stupid, optimism wins every time.
Klaw: Jasrado Chisholm is the big name from the lower levels; he might have the highest upside of any realistic prospect in the system.

Evan: Klaw, haven’t seen much written about Giants rhp prospect Sam Coonrod. Has had fantastic 2-full season so far. He a dude?
Klaw: Reliever only. Good relief prospect but that’s it.

Jay: With the Jays pulling in insane attendance and TV numbers the last 2 years, can they justify being outbid for Edwin?
Klaw: Yes, because of his age and likely projections for his performance going forward. He may be a poor investment even if he’s still a good player.

Kevin G.: Hi Keith. Big fan of your work. You have been consistently down on Marco Estrada. Have you changed your opinion of him at all, or do you still think his BABIP suppression and relatively low homer rate (for an extreme fly ball guy) is kind of fluky? Interested to hear your analysis. Thanks!
Klaw: Still think it’s very fluky. He’s around a .225 BABIP with the Jays the last two years, something like 70-80 points below league-average and still 30+ points below his own career BABIP.

Steve: Dexter Fowler likely leaves in FA. Hopefully Schwarber is healthy and can play some LF. Would you have Heyward play CF for Cubs and Soler in RF or would you look to move Soler (value has to be pretty low)? Or just hang on to everyone and figure injuries will sort out playing time?
Klaw: Play Soler. Getting him regular PT next year should be a priority; he’s shown flashes of the ability when healthy, especially at the end of this season, although I’ve been disappointed in his reads on defense. Heyward in CF would make sense, but I’m not sure about Schwarber in LF off the knee injury. (Previous to that I thought he’d be capable out there.)

Jeremy: Thoughts on Dylan winning the nobel prize for literature? I’m a fan of Dylan’s and his lyrics can be amazing and thoughtful, but it seems like a warping of the award, and I highly doubt there weren’t qualified authors to pick from.
Klaw: This is my thought as well. I think he is the greatest lyricist in music history, but I don’t think that compares to the output of great novelists or short story writers. Ngugi wa’Thiongo was considered a favorite to win, and both of his novels that I’ve read are spectacular works of fiction.

Stephen: Where does cubs rhp Trevor Clifton factor into the future rotation equation?
Klaw: Mid-rotation starter.

Chad: How does Preller get trust and credibility back? Is firing Dee, and hiring someone to specifically oversee medical records, enough? Also, who would be your pick for the new Padres CEO?
Klaw: That CEO job is a business job, not a President of Baseball Ops job. Preller has to be scrupulously honest in all dealings, even to the point of going overboard in revealing information. That’s the only way to rebuild trust. Also, people have asked about him getting fired post-suspension; that would be incredibly stupid for the Padres, given how late we are in the baseball calendar now. If you were going to fire him, do it rather than suspending him.

Jer: Predictions on any changes to the CBA after the World Series?
Klaw: I think the international FA system (July 2) is a top priority. The draft is high up on the list for teams, who feel like they’re spending more money in the draft on secondary talents. The MLB minimum salary is likely to go up substantially. I think players want to continue to limit required media access before/after games. September roster rules will probably come up. I personally hope the loss of a draft pick to sign a free agent ends this time around.

Mike: Is there anything anyone can do to move the pace of game in the playoffs? Love it, it’s great theater, but throw the ball already?
Klaw: Well, how long did the top of the 9th take in the Giants-Cubs game 4? Every pitching change is about three minutes of dead time, if not four. That would be my main target; it sucked a lot of drama out of an incredible finish.

Hugo Z: How much credence do you give to studies that indicate line-up protection is a myth?
Klaw: It is definitely a myth, at least as it is understood to mean that a hitter becomes more productive with a better hitter behind him. I’ve said here before I think it’s a myth in MLB, but in an environment like college or HS, where you might see a gap between a team’s best hitter and the guy behind him larger than anything we’ll see in MLB, it may very well exist.

Matt: Can we turn 2016 off, and then turn it back on again? Maybe that will fix it.
Klaw: We should roll back the BIOS to the last clean install.

Keith Too: been a serious issue, but over the last few months of the season it seems that Staumont might have finally bought in that the rose goes in front. IWhat are your thoughts?
Klaw: Saw him Tuesday. Same guy as before – good delivery, great pure stuff, 40 command tops. Let him start as long as you can, because the pure upside is enormous, maybe even #1, but it’s hard to see how he ever gets there when there is no physical or mechanical obstacle to him commanding the fastball.

Jack C.: How does one get into the sports representation business (i.e. agent/advisor)? What can an advisor do with high school and NCAA athletes that an agent can’t do? There seems to be such a grey area when it comes to answers (no surprising due to many NCAA rules and regulations).
Klaw: They’re all lawyers, I think, so that’s the first step. An advisor is an agent who isn’t formally getting paid; once the player signs his first contract, he pays a commission to the advisor, who then becomes an agent. So it’s all semantics and vocabulary there.

Frankie: Did the Mets make the right choice when the traded Dickie to the Jays? Syndergaard or Sanchez?
Klaw: They made the right choice; I had Sanchez rated higher at the time, and perhaps Sanchez would have developed faster in the Mets’ system, but given what we know the Mets did well to take Thor, who I thought was going to win the NL Cy this year for most of the season.

Tim: My wife is pregnant and we are considering the Dr. Sears alternative vaccine schedule. Not sure if you are familiar with it, but the child gets all vaccines, just on a slightly delayed schedule. Our primary reason for doing this is so we can isolate each vaccine in case of some kind of allergic reaction. Are you familiar with Dr. Sears alternate schedule and if so, how do you feel about it?
Klaw: I am familiar with it. It’s total bullshit and he’s a quack. If your child (congratulations, by the way) has an egg allergy, then one vaccine won’t be any better than four. Otherwise there is no reason to use this pseudoscientific ‘alternative’ schedule.

Tim: Cody Reed, Amir Garrett or Robert Stephenson for 5th spot in Reds rotation? Any of them bullpen bound in your opinion?
Klaw: All have starter potential and bullpen floor. Reed seems the most likely to start to me. Stephenson has the highest upside.

Nick: What is Gleyber Torres’ power ceiling? 20-25 Hr’s a year at his peak or is that too high?
Klaw: I’d buy that.

Chris: Two-part question: Is Chase Utley a Hall of Famer? Will Chase Utley get into the Hall of Fame?
Klaw: He is, and I think he will after several years on the ballot. Would have helped if he’d won one of the MVPs he deserved rather than, say, his DP partner winning.

J: Given that 5 (Woodfork, Bell, Montgomery, Minniti, Rizzo) of Arizona’s public targets are or were in their FO at one point, is it fair to say they feel regret about going so far outside of the org last time? Do you think being internal candidates right now helps Bell/Minniti?
Klaw: From what I’ve heard, that list of public is not accurate. I don’t believe Bell is getting an interview, for example, although he’s really highly regarded around MLB.

Erik: Could Clint Frazier hypothetically play CF?
Klaw: No shot.

Eddy: Juan Soto — what type of ceiling does he have? What type of numbers can he post at his peak?
Klaw: He’s 17; I wouldn’t even pretend to project numbers on that. I think he has at least above-average regular upside, a corner guy with power and it appears some OBP potential too.

Jordan: How important is the AFL for a prospect like Dustin Peterson
Klaw: It’s not important; it’s useful, or valuable, but not important in any way.

Air: Thoughts on the new Fox TV show “Pitch” ?
Klaw: Have not watched.

ck: My wife is really into board games, but me, not so much. Part of the problem is that I get very bored waiting for my turn to come back around (as my wife won’t see this, I might mention that her lack of speed in moving is part of the problem). Do you ever have this issue, and if so, how do you get around it?
Klaw: Yes. Gotta pick games that don’t have that feature. Co-op games like Pandemic might be more your speed.

Adam: If I am planning on spatchcocking my turkey for Thanksgiving, should I brine it also, or does the fast cooking time of a spatchcocked turkey make brining redundant?
Klaw: I didn’t brine last year, I just “dry-brined,” which means salting it a little ahead of time to dry out the skin and allow some salt to work its way into the meat via osmosis. Check Serious Eats for more on that.

Joel: Tyler O’Neill, what’s the ceiling there in your opinion?
Klaw: Average regular in RF.

Jaime: Does the surplus of Dodger left-handed hitting prospects (Bellinger, Verdugo, Calhoun, Rios) combined w their big league left-handedness, be a concern?
Klaw: No. I don’t think you can ever have too much of a valuable asset type.

Cory: Why should my Twins take Hunter Greene #1 in the draft, over Wright/Faedo or a position player
Klaw: I’m not sure they should do that, as good as Greene is. There’s certainly risk there, HS pitcher risk as well as questions about how good the breaking ball is going to be down the road.

MikeM: Did you get to see James Kaprielian pitch last night? His velocity was reportedly back to where it was before his injury. After the lost year of development do you think he can still be a mid rotation starter?
Klaw: Yep. I think he can be more than a mid-rotation starter. He looked ridiculous last night.

Greg: Are there any Atlanta prospects going under the radar that you are higher on than most?
Klaw: Is Ronald Acuna still under the radar? I think he might be too well-known for that, but I think he’s a star.

Kevin: Which TV show would you have loved to have a cameo on?
Klaw: I kept telling Schur I was ready for a Parks & Rec cameo as “Corpse #2” but he told me it wasn’t that kind of show.

Tom: At some point doesn’t Bochy have to give one of those FIVE relievers a shot at two batters?
Klaw: Will Smith in particular. Or my son Derek, who shouldn’t have started the inning if there was even a chance in Bochy’s mind that Lopez would face Rizzo.

Dusty: Thinking of going to see the AFL for the first time this year. I know you have several posts on where to eat in the area and we will make good use of those. I was wondering if you had any good advice on actually going to the games.
Klaw: Nothing to advise really – they’re not well attended at all, so just show up and enjoy.

Ryan: Is it more of an insult to yours and all the scouts at the AFL’s intelligence that Tebow is on the field with baseball players that have a *real* future?
Klaw: I think it’s the biggest insult to the player who didn’t get that roster spot, or whoever’s losing playing time to this stunt.

Paul: Hey Keith, Just to say that the Giants- Cubs was GREAT! I enjoyed it very much even as a Giants fan. No managers mistakes, just players playing at their best, close plays all the time. You just can’t beat it
Klaw: I agree and I think the criticism of Bochy for pulling Moore was totally off base. His one mistake was letting Romo face a LHB (after some reshuffling), which is a real tactical error. But otherwise it ain’t his fault none of his relievers could hit a spot.

JJ: Lost year for Blake Swihart. Is he still a catcher in 2017, or do the Red Sox move forward with their conversion to the outfield? If it’s the latter, then he must be trade bait, right? I don’t see him overtaking any of the Benintendi-Bradley-Betts trio.
Klaw: He needs to catch. He’s more than capable.

Brett: Doesn’t it feel like Atlanta is afraid to hire from the outside? This Snitker hire just feels weird when there’s a guy like Black out there wanting the job.
Klaw: I was disappointed with the lack of imagination in the candidate pool. These were pretty standard names.

Max: Thoughts on Tanner Houck? How high could he realistically go next June?
Klaw: Potential top five pick … but I think he’s likely a reliever in the long run and doubt I’ll rank him that high.

JR: Whoever ends up winning the world series will be breaking a championship drought of 20+ years (Toronto in 1993 the most recent champion). #fuckyeahbaseball
Klaw: Yep, this is exactly the type of postseason outcome I root for. Let’s give some long-suffering fan base a championship. Cubs-Cleveland would be incredible no matter who wins.

Steve: Taking my 8 year old to games 1-2 of NLCS. He has some social anxiety in big crowds. He is fine during the game, but gets nervous while leaving. I know it will be nuts at Wrigley. With the exception of leaving early, would you advise just hanging back and let the crowd filter out? We will be staying downtown and taking the train/cab/uber.
Klaw: I’d hang back till after. The mad rush postgame for the subway would be intimidating. Worse because so many people will be drunk.

Chris: I know that Matt Moore is post-TJ and at 120 pitches, but he had retired 9 straight and struck out two of three in 8th. Lose and go home. Why not keep him in with the worst bullpen in the playoffs?
Klaw: Well, that’s a bit of recency bias. There’s really no evidence that a pitcher who’s done what he did is therefore more likely to continue to pitch above his abilities. There is evidence, however, that pitchers pitch worse the fourth time through a lineup (he was at 28 batters, so would have faced Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist for the fourth time), and that they pitch worse when fatigued, of which 120 pitches is a weak proxy.

darren stains: Hey Keith. Do you have any opinions regarding the Harvard Extension School? I’m 33 trying to finish my bachelors. I’m going the online route and HES is a little cheaper than many of the “reputable” online programs. I’ve seen mixed reviews about HES. Waste of money? Quality education? No idea?
Klaw: I have very limited experience with it, but my understanding is that it’s more like high-quality adult education than like the classes you’d take as an undergraduate. I don’t know anything about its accreditation for your purposes, though.

J.O.: Is there a chance Heyward has been hurt all season and that is causing his hitting problems/mechanics issues?
Klaw: Sure. I think it’s ultimately mechanical, though.

JAred: Why is Espinosa still starting when they have Turner?
Klaw: I have no idea. Then again, I was pilloried for suggesting Turner should have been up to start the year, at least when Espinosa had that one good month.

Brett: Keith, I’m a Braves fan mad about their late hot streak. If one of their late wins turned into a loss, they’d be picking second next year instead of fifth. Am I insane?
Klaw: Not at all. Costs them a higher pick and probably $2.5-3 million in pool money under the current system.

Brian: Aren’t the people shaming Trump’s alleged sexual harassment victims for not coming out earlier more or less enabling him? The reason they didn’t was because they were afraid of negative consequences and not being believed.
Klaw: Yes. And they’re engaging in what they have previously accused HRC of doing to the women who accused Bill of harassment or assault. (Which is also not OK.)

ck: Do you foresee baseball modifying the rules regarding reviews to avoid these stupid reversals when a sliding runner leaves a bag by a half-inch for a millisecond, or will it devolve to “these pampered players need to learn how to slide like the old-timers did” with no change made?
Klaw: I haven’t heard anything from within the industry about it, which wasn’t true of the transfer rule debacle, so I doubt there’s a change – but I wrote the other day why I hope there will be a change because the status quo is a step backwards and may lead to more injuries on slides.

Nick: Could Blake Rutherford stay in CF?
Klaw: No shot.

John: To the guy thinking about the Sears quackery, the first time your kid drops a pacifier on the ground, picks it up, and pops it back into their mouth they will be exposed to more pathogens than any appointment on the typical vaccination schedule.
Klaw: Exactly. I believe I’ve told the story before of my daughter, as a baby, licking the play gym floor. That’s more pathogens than she got in all vaccines combined. The same is true of one tablespoon of soil – there’s something like a million organisms in it of hundreds of species. So people who listen to Sears are falling for junk science.

Hugo Z: For a mid-payroll team, do you like the Mets model of supplementing young starters with one or two relatively inexpensive veterans, and saving your big money spending for position players?
Klaw: Yes, very much. Of course, i don’t think they should be a mid-payroll team…

Jared: I am a HS baseball coach and like you look out for my pitchers. Last year, we were up 1-0 in the 5th inning in the Regional Final when I pulled him because he had thrown 85 pitches. We ended up losing 2-1 and I heard it from parents and others that I wasn’t looking out for the team. This kid probably will play Division 3, but has an outside shot at a D2 scholarship. What are your thoughts on what I should have told these parents?
Klaw: That your goal is developing these kids as players and people, and that your job is to be the adult in the room and take the long view even if it’s to the detriment of the team in one particular game.

Andy: Bounce back for Kolten Wong in ’17?
Klaw: I’ll put it this way: I never thought he’d be more than an average regular, but I think he’s much better than what we saw this year.

Andy: Do you have any additional insight into the Epinoza/Pomeranz re-trade. Was it actually a, we’ll give the prospect back if you give us the pitcher? If it was, why didn’t the Red Sox take them up on it?
Klaw: I think that was it, and the Red Sox must have decided a fragile Pomeranz was still worth more to them this year and next than the long-term value of Espinoza.

Geregg: What is Anderson Espinoza’s floor?
Klaw: Floor would be a high-value reliever, one of these 2 WAR, 12 K per 9 type of guys.

Preston: Do you have a recommendation for a quick (5-15 minutes) board/card game, preferably fairly easy to learn? Ideally for 5 or 6 people, though I could work with fewer.
Klaw: The card games Love Letter, Coup, and 3 Wishes all fit what you’re looking for and play 3-4, but not more. Ticket to Ride takes almost no time to learn, plays up to 5, but takes more time than that to play. Carcassonne plays up to 5 or 6, takes a little more time to learn because of the scoring of farms, but has no setup time and can play in a half hour or so once you know the rules.

Ryan V.: Really enjoyed your review of The Lobster. Even more, I enjoyed the quiz that identifies which of three animals you could be in that world. My day was brightened immeasurably when I learned that I should be a water bear…
Klaw: I’m still thinking about the movie a lot, which is a good sign. I didn’t buy some of the plot contrivances in the second half, but the dystopian details were both clever and I thought perfectly satirized some of our modern obsessions with relationships and ‘matching.’

Tim: Any other names moving up your list for ’17 that could unseat Kendall or Greene? Seems like those guys are almost sure bets to go top 2 or 3.
Klaw: Those are the clear top 2 for me. Wright is right up there. Adell has the tool set to make a big run up the board, but he’s not going to face great competition in the spring and I think some teams will consider him too risky for a pick that high.

Troy: Is Luke Weaver a reliable starter in the bigs someday?
Klaw: I don’t think he has the breaking ball for that.

Logan: Between Muller and Wentz, who has the high ceiling, and who is the safest?
Klaw: Wentz on both for me.

Jay: I found it ridiculous that the Rangers and their fans equated Odor punching Bautista to the Bat Flip homer as their signature moment. The irony was too sweet that he blew the final play.
Klaw: I don’t love celebrating a punch in that manner anyway. Go watch MMA if that’s your style.

Jeff: Are there any Rule 5 guys that could end up with regular roles in 2017? How early do teams start planning for this?
Klaw: The rosters won’t be set until around November 20th, and the safest answer to your first question is “no,” because I think we’ve had maybe zero or one in each of the last five years of drafts.

Darth Vader Ginsburg: Have a best mac and cheese recipe?
Klaw: I do, right here on the dish.

Stephen: Has the apparent mechanical change (his stance looks different since his recall from the minors) from Puig rebuilt his value in your estimation? Or are you still noticing that he is not turning on inside fastballs?
Klaw: It was never a mechanical issue.

Scott: What are you thoughts on Eloy Jimenez? 19 y/o. but seems he advanced well this year. Seen him live?
Klaw: Couple of times. Superstar.

Anonymous: What did you do after you graduated Harvard? What advice would you give to a senior that is not really sure what to do immediately after?
Klaw: Worked in consulting, got an MBA, worked at some startups, never liked any of it.

Erskine: Have you heard of the new deckbuilding/dungeon-crawling game Clank! that released today? Interested in your thoughts on this new style of game.
Klaw: No, but I’ll check it out.

Brian Woytek: Should I go see Opeth on Saturday or watch the NLCS?
Klaw: Go see Opeth. You can always record the game and watch it later. I had to watch the 9th inning of Cubs-Giants afterwards because I was at a game here.

Anthony: Would you try to move Gallo and Profar for a SP? What value to each of them have given the struggles of both?
Klaw: Profar struggled? He missed two years and came back to be a useful bench piece. Your standards are too high.

Tim (KC): Hey Keith… do you have any book recs for baseball analytics?
Klaw: Yes. I’m writing one.

Tim: I always reflect your science-based approach to issues. Do you have any thoughts or reading recommendation on chiropractic care, particularly pediatric chiro or “subluxation”?
Klaw: Any chiropractic claims beyond dealing with musculoskeletal injuries or pain are pseudoscience.

Bryan: What is going on with DJ Stewart? Seems to do better vs higher competition
Klaw: Bench guy, maybe. Bad body, poor approach, no position.

Josephina: Thoughts on cutting out sugar from your diet when it makes everything taste so good?
Klaw: I’ve never cut it out completely so I wouldn’t know what to advise, especially if you have a medical reason to avoid it. Maybe just try to use more of the other things that satisfy us, like acid or umami?

Alex: Ty Black.. Anything more than a 5th starter option for the Giants?
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever, but I’d accept fifth starter as an answer too.

Deniro: Thought the concern with vaccines were chemicals and heavy metals in vaccines?
Klaw: The concern with vaccines is that a lot of people don’t understand basic science and refuse to accept overwhelming evidence that vaccines are safe.

Tim (KC): Is it a mistake that teams are not letting some of their top end prospects play this postseason? (Thinking Urias, Moncada, Swihart, Giolito)
Klaw: I don’t think it’s a mistake – Moncada isn’t ready to contribute, for example. Urias would be the exception, as he can help at least in a long relief role.

Randy: I know you are high on Junior Fernandez. Looks like he had a nice year. Ceiling?
Klaw: High-end starter.

Josephina: How rare is Rich Hill? Majors to independent ball to starting the biggest game of the year for the Dodgers?
Klaw: Incredibly so and I think it’s fantastic. Probably helped that he had pitched in the majors before, but still, most guys in his situation would be done.

Buddy: I think the whole situation with Buck waiting for a save situation is a perfect example of how in sports managers would rather lose conventionally than win unconventionally, which is of course twisted. The most underrated aspect of the analytics movement is that more people are starting to realize the flaw in that thinking, which may lead to actual change on the field; given the number of people criticizing the conventional failure by Buck, it seems more likely another manager will feel confident making the right move in the future, even if it fails
Klaw: Yes, it’s the “no one ever got fired for buying from IBM” mentality. If you buy from the new vendor, and it doesn’t work out, you will be second-guessed to death by people saying “why didn’t you just buy from IBM?” If Buck used Britton, extended the game, and then lost when someone else blew the save situation, he would have been criticized for using his closer “too soon,” by writers and fans who can’t see that using Britton allowed the save situation to happen. Of course, failing to use Britton at all created a new set of questions, so I don’t think Buck escaped it entirely, but he definitely hewed too closely to a conservative idea of reliever usage.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for your questions and for reading.

My Boston/Cleveland and Texas/Toronto ALDS previews are now up for Insiders.

Klaw: If I could buy my reasoning, I’d pay to lose. Klawchat.

Dave: Mariano Rivera pitched 3 innings in game 7 in 2003. I’m just sayin’.
Klaw: That idea, stretching out a normally one-inning reliever for nine outs, is so anathema to managers today I would be floored if anybody tried it. (Dave’s referring to the ALCS.) Maddon would be the only guy I could see doing that, since Chapman’s definitely capable of going more than three outs and is a free agent anyway so who cares.

Frank: Do you think what was referred to as “Catcher’s ERA” 10-20 years ago was an imperfect precursor to what we have more recently come to understand as the ways catchers impact results?
Klaw: It just had too much noise in it to be useful. But framing had to appear in there somewhere, right? If framing is real, it would mean pitchers’ ERAs by catcher would differ, and the problem with C-ERA is that the real effects were obscured by randomness.

Lyle: Given the current state of the Mariners COFs, it seems likely that Tyler O’Neill could be up as soon as the All-Star Break. Is there any reason to think that he could (or even should) break camp with the team, though? Muddle through in RF with some combo of Gamel/Smith/Heredia until then?
Klaw: No reason. I think he’d struggle with contact out of the gate anyway. He’s a solid prospect, but not a superstar.

MK: Mike Schur wrote a great piece on Mike Trout yesterday. Do you ever just shake your head at the people that are watching some Mantle/Griffey/Mays hybrid monster and not consider him to be the MVP? The guys career WAR is already higher than several hall of famers and hes only 25…Its a shame that i dont have the luxury to watch him more frequently.
Klaw: I work in an industry with a very mixed group of people – referring to the writers here – including a large subset of folks who just don’t want to change their thinking. Voting for Trout would invalidate years of believing it was one way, when it’s the other way.

Josh: Where does Bumgarner rank for you in the hypothetical “Pitcher (past and present) I would want starting for my team in a win or go home game.” ? Who would you place above him?
Klaw: Quite a few guys. I don’t think he’s any different in October than he is April-September. He’s great all the time, but he doesn’t have any special ability to pitch well in the postseason.

Tom V.: Thoughts on Ausmus being brought back for another year?
Klaw: A clear mistake. His misuse of young pitchers has been horrifying to watch. He’s just not good at the visible aspects of his job, and it’s hard to see how he can be so good at the invisible aspects that we could ignore the time he had Daniel Norris throw 50+ pitches in an inning.

Kevin W: What do you say to climate change deniers that sat stupid shit like it’s just weather? Any go to sites you use?
Klaw: You’re fighting way uphill with those twits. You could point out that if they don’t understand the difference between climate and weather, then they certainly shouldn’t be commenting on climate change.

ML: With the Falvey announcement made official on Monday, do you expect a complete overhaul of the scouting staff?
Klaw: My guess is player development gets overhauled, not amateur scouting. They also have no real dedicated pro scouting staff and I can only assume they establish one.

Carty: There’s been a lot of cooling on the idea of Eduardo Rodriguez becoming a 1/2 (which was the buzz for a while). What do you ultimately see for him going forward?
Klaw: I still think he gets there. He’s young, talented, a bit raw, raced through the minors and lost a lot of reps to injury (including pitching when he probably shouldn’t have). I’m very optimistic on him long-term.

Marty: No sketch comedy in the TV Book. What would you add if you could? Mr. Show for me all the way.
Klaw: The Muppet Show.

Dan: Am I stupid for being excited for the Wold Baseball Classic?
Klaw: Not at all. I enjoy parts of it. But I also don’t care if the U.S. wins; I’d kind of prefer that we don’t (hasn’t been a problem in the past!) because I think its purpose is more to grow the game globally than to promote it here. That said, stacking Team Israel or Italy with a bunch of Americans is silly. It’s not going to get the media coverage in the represented country if it’s not predominantly made up of players from there.

Frank: I believe you said a few weeks ago that you would not consider Happ for the Cy. Why not? Also, does Aaron Sanchez warrant a mention in the discussion?
Klaw: I wouldn’t consider Happ because he hasn’t been good enough.

Matt: Keith, I know this question deals with a lot of speculation, but if Atlanta can add a couple of starting pitchers either via FA or trade, is it plausible to think a winning record could happen next season? Thanks for answering.
Klaw: It does not seem plausible to me.

Santos: In a previous chat, you mentioned you take Escitalopram for anxiety/depression (and that it makes a significant difference), was that prescribed by a general practitioner? Did you bring up Escitalopram or did the doctor? I’d like to approach this subject with a medical professional but I don’t know where to start.
Klaw: Prescribed first by a GP. I’ve seen psychiatrists, psychiatric nurses, and other GPs since then and had scripts from each of them. I went in and discussed symptoms, and then the GP chose this drug and gave me a small xanax prescription because my anxiety was so bad I was having trouble sleeping. (This was shortly after my one huge panic attack in 2012, while driving on Staten Island … insert joke here.)

Archie: One thing that stands out about Bumgarner is how he is one of the most fierce competitors in our galaxy. As a scout, do you pay attention to the willingness of a kid to compete and the desire to win, or is that something that is hard to detect and shows up when the competition gets consistently better at the pro level?
Klaw: Nearly all MLB players are incredibly fierce competitors. It’s nonsense to say that Bumgarner is somehow different in that regard. If you’re not competitive, you don’t get this far without otherworldly talent, and most MLBers don’t quite have that latter thing.

Andrew: Read your Cleveland / Boston write-up. Couldn’t help but notice that the Red Sox were always referred to as the “Red Sox” and the Indians were always referred to as “Cleveland”. Thank you for doing that.
Klaw: Not an accident. I have not actually used Cleveland’s team nickname in my own writing in probably nine years. My editors have been very good about helping with that.

ML: The Twins are now on the clock! Everyone knows the Twins have had a difficult time developing pitchers. Do you have any idea what Twins fans should expect upcoming drafts to look like?
Klaw: No, not really. I can guess they’ll use the same Trackman/statcast-style data that other front offices have begun to use, including Cleveland’s. But I think until Falvey has more people in place below him I’m really just throwing ideas out there without any sound basis for them.

Tom: Last night an awful hitter was intentionally walked so the Giants could face the opposing pitcher instead. Remind me why the DH is bad again?
Klaw: You didn’t enjoy that bit of strategery?

James: Not sure how to word this. How do you feel about the Arizona management shake up? Your article probably did not alert the ownership of the problem unless they were hiding in a hole somewhere. However it was a very public way of outing bad decision making. I expect you feel bad for the guys but they made their choice of how to run the organization.
Klaw: It’s never personal; it was a legitimately newsworthy subject, that an MLB franchise was being run by people who were incapable of handling some fundamental aspects of their job, to the point that other MLB execs were commenting to me on how abysmal the situation was. They’re in a hole now that it will take them some time and creativity to get out of, from one of the game’s worst farm systems – I can’t see a top 100 prospect there anywhere – to a payroll that is nearly half committed to a good starter and a DH on a National League club. As for feeling bad, I’ve said before, I didn’t make any of those mistakes; I just organized them.

Harold: Do you like the Renteria choice by the White Sox?
Klaw: I wished he’d gotten more of a chance in his first gig, although obviously they went for the upgrade. But he also had some things he could have done better the first time around that he’ll have to improve now with this second chance. Everyone likes him as a person and a communicator, but on-field tactics, including stuff like defensive positioning and integrating the better info that comes from analytics, will be the key for him to be better the second time around.

Frank: Doesn’t the MVP question vis-a-vis Trout have to include a definition of what MVP means? Is Trout the best player alive? Yes. Did he have such a large impact on his team? Well, they still finished 2nd last in their division, so how much value could he have added? Was he valuable to MLB as a whole? Somewhat, although he would be more so in New York or Chicago, but should geography play into that? To me, an MVP has to be on a team that had a somewhat successful season, because then he provided value by lifting the team to a level it otherwise would not have achieved.
Klaw: He added a ton of value; they would have been unwatchable without him, probably the second-worst team in baseball, near 100 losses. Just because you don’t think there’s value in losing 88 games instead of 98 doesn’t mean that there isn’t.

John (Raleigh): Do you think it is possible for MiLB players to ever obtain collective bargaining rights? Separate or MLBPA offshoot. I know there are structural barriers to such a union, but my blood boils at the wage suppression tactics of MLB and it’s owners.
Klaw: Better question for someone who knows a little about labor law.

CB: Why do HOF voters say that they are waiting for the HoF to make a decision about steroid users? Clearly, they already have. When Pete Rose gambled, he was quickly banned for life by the HoF. Now, with steroids, no ban has been announced or even hinted at. De facto, the HoF has made clear that (1) Steroids are not as problematic as gambling, and (2) Steroids are not a disqualifier.
Klaw: And given Manfred’s comments on Ortiz, it’s pretty fucking clear that Bonds and Clemens belong in. We will forgive what we want to forgive.

Mark: When is the ’17 draft rankings coming?
Klaw: Soon, but I have other content I have to finish first (the NLDS stuff today) as well as some work on the book.

Mark: Do you have a budget at ESPN, as in if you want to hire someone do you have that freedom?
Klaw: No, and I’m not sure I want the responsibility of being a full-time manager on top of everything else I have to do.

Steve: “Hey let’s not give Trout the MVP award he deserves because Arte Moreno signed Pujols and Josh Hamilton! Makes sense! Mookie gets MVP for his crucial role in developing David Ortiz and acquiring Porcello and Price!”
Klaw: Exactly. The whole thing is stupid – it is a fabricated, selective definition of “value” that supports a preconceived notion.

James: To the 9% nationally who say you are voting for Gary Johnson – he doesn’t know who the leader of North Korea is or what is happening in Syria. Vote for someone with a chance to win.
Klaw: Or, take a look at the man’s actual platform, such as his plans for taxation, regulation, or dealing with climate change. Then if you still think he’s the right person for you, vote for him. But at least understand the man’s views, because in terms of economic and environmental policies he’s a lot closer to Trump’s platform than Clinton’s.

Bobby: Is there any grouping of words you hate more than “I know its a small sample size BUT…”? Shouldn’t everybody know by now that a SSS by definition is not indicative of a significant change?
Klaw: It’s not proof of a significant change – if the sample is too small we can’t tell if the change is significant or not. Over the years I’ve started to ignore more of these questions. I got at least a half-dozen on Sandy Fucking Leon this summer. Really?

J.P.: Per Nick Cafardo – “Bryan Minniti, Mike Bell, Ray Montgomery, Peter Woodfork and Kim Ng all in the running for D’Backs GM job” – who would you pick?
Klaw: Those are legitimately good names, and I know four of them well and one of them a little bit. I’m not going to go any farther than that until they make a hire.

Andy: Ubaldo Jimenez has been in the top 10 in his league in walks every year in the last 9. He also has been known to just lose a ball like in a wild pitch or HBP. Please explain to people that IBB Encarnacion is a bad idea.
Klaw: And the guy on deck, Jose Bautista, is good for 100 walks every full season. It was a terrible idea.

addoeh: Charleston, SC good choice for Top Chef? With so many good food towns, I would have preferred a road trip through the South, like last year in California.
Klaw: Yes, it’s a great food town, but I have to think they’ll branch out a little given the number of episodes.

Mark: Would you rather have Buddy Reed or Bryan Reynolds in your system?
Klaw: I rated Reynolds about forty spots higher on draft day and I wouldn’t change that at all. Reed can’t hit.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a go-to carrot soup recipe? I have a newfound affinity for it. I’ve tried about 4 different recipes with each being really different. Latest one was the ginger carrot soup from Boma at WDW.
Klaw: The one in Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork.

Alex: What is your opinion of starting rotations having RHP and LHP? Does it matter? Do you think the braves need to add a LH starter?
Klaw: I think it matters more in the postseason than the regular season.

Tom: Kris Bryant had a 7.7 WAR. The Cubs finished 17.5 games in first place. Obviously, the Cubs didn’t need Bryant to finish in first place. (I tried to make this sound as dumb as possible)
Klaw: Yep. When you create artificial rules around what constitutes value, you end up with these paradoxes.

Cody: I’ve always argued this with people from the devil’s advocate standpoint, but would love to hear your opinion. I constantly hear fans across baseball complain about how their ownership is “cheap” and doesn’t want to spend the money necessary to win. I’ve heard for years as a Pirates fan, and from other fanbases. I’ve always been skeptical of those kinds of statements because in reality, none of these people truly know what the books look like. I happen to think that for some of these owners, their teams are not the profit centers people paint them to be and are more doing it because it’s cool and as a way of civic pride. Where do you stand on this? Do you think that teams are actually not making the margins people imagine or the other way around?
Klaw: I think most teams are swimming in cash, but it’s their right to turn a profit. I don’t like when owners cry poverty and ask for government handouts, but I haven’t criticized any owners for choosing to take home profits rather than spending it on the payroll. (I would criticize owners for spending too little on scouts’ salaries, or not paying interns, or for the joke wages all teams pay minor leaguers, though. Those are drops in the bucket.)

Charlie: Thoughts on Cody Bellinger? Would you comp him to say, a Brandon Belt?
Klaw: I don’t like comps, but I will say on Bellinger that his year in 2016 was unexpected and kind of remarkable: He cut his strikeouts without losing all his power. That’s a huge adjustment for any kid, especially one on the young side, and I think players who make adjustments like that at young ages are marked for stardom.

JJ: How many ABs for a hitter against a specific pitcher before it’s no longer SSS, and actually significant?
Klaw: There is no such number. Just ignore them. Players change and by the time you got the hundred or more ABs you might need they wouldn’t be the same players anymore.

Joe: Could Trey Mancini have an impact for the Orioles next year? He looked okay in the few at bats he had this year.
Klaw: Don’t see it. Bench guy for me.

Ryan: Say tomorrow that baseball loses their anti-trust exemption… would there really be any negative setback for the sport?
Klaw: No but you would see some large structural changes. Probably first would be Oakland and/or Tampa Bay ownership looking at moving. I think – could be wrong on this – that territorial rights would go away in such a scenario so the A’s could just move to San Jose.

Bryan: (1/2) Klaw, long time reader. Was hoping you might have some helpful resources you can direct me to, just to cope with a situation that has recently thrown our whole family for a loop. Long story short: my wife (mid-30’s) recently revealed that she was abused as a child, by her sister’s husband (currently mid-40’s). No one knew it, not even me. She held it in for nearly 25 years. Of course, the man denies it and her sister has chosen to stay with him. We have very good reason to believe he is physically abusive (she has called the police on him before). As a result of all this, her sister has basically been isolated from the rest of our family, as her decision to stay with him is being seen as a tacit approval of his behavior. But I think the true reason she stays is because she is afraid of him, and for good reason. I feel like there is nothing we can do to this man, practically speaking.
Klaw: Part one… stay with me …

Bryan: (2/2) And part of me feels bad for shunning my sister in-law, knowing she is in a bad situation. But what else are we to do? We are seeking counseling, but other than that I can’t see of any other way to proceed, other than keeping our distance from her (we have children too, FWIW).
Klaw: I would suggest you contact RAINN, or perhaps call the national sexual assault hotline 800-656-4673, to ask for advice. I would shun your sister-in-law too if she can’t accept that her husband is abusive and won’t try to leave the marriage. I hope your wife is getting help through therapy; abuse survivors are at high risk for PTSD too.

John: Thoughts on Taylor Trammell and Mickey Moniak? Do they seem pretty similar to you in terms of value and/or potential?
Klaw: Totally different. Moniak’s a polished kid who can already hit quite a bit but doesn’t have a huge ceiling because he probably won’t get past 50-55 power. Trammell is less polished – not crude by any means – but has more upside as a power/speed type with more athleticism. IIRC he was a pretty high-contact guy in HS, though, so don’t classify him as just one another Georgia prep tools goof.

Ben: The Leopard by Giuseppe di Lampedusa is one of my favorite novels, but one of only a few Italian novels I’ve read. Any suggestions for similar writers/novels?
Klaw: I liked the two books I read by Alessandro Piperno – Persecution and the Worst Intentions.

JC: Looking forward, but if Heyward was a FA this year & signed an identical contract to what he has remaining, would you be OK with it?
Klaw: It would be excessive; he probably wouldn’t get that on the open market.

Joe: Could you ask your wife to update her blog (linked at the top). Her writing is good, but it hasn’t been updated in three years.
Klaw: Will do. Can’t promise anything though. She’s had a rough year.

JL: Having a good friend over for the weekend and want to make them a really nice dinner. I’ve drastically improved my cooking the past few years but said friend is vegetarian where the staple of most of my tried and true dishes are meat-based. Anything you’d recommend for a vegetarian based meal? Thanks!
Klaw: If dairy is OK, that’s what I would probably think of as the center of the meal – a souffle, a baked pasta dish, a frittata (egg and cheese). And lots of vegetables; that’s how I’m trying to cook now anyway, vegetables first, protein second.

Darryl: Will Senzel be the full time 3B at some point next season?
Klaw: Maybe by August? That’s not a crazy thought, given how fast Schwarber, Conforto, Bregman, and Benintendi all got there. He’s not quite as high-ceiling as those guys but I think he’s in their class as a hitter.

Andrew: If writers aren’t going to put Trout on the top of their MVP ballots because he’s not on a playoff team, by that logic shouldn’t they leave him off altogether? I mean, if they aren’t going to vote him #1, why would they vote him #2 ahead of Donaldson?
Klaw: To quote a certain gerbil, they don’t have the balls.

Jim: Hi Keith, do you like the 1 game Wild Card? I feel as if a three game series would be better and more fair. 1 game just seems so un baseball, even though I do love the instant drama.
Klaw: I prefer that to a three-game series where other teams are off for a week … and if you want three games, why not five? or seven? We’re going to have to accept some unfairness in any playoff system. Let’s at least get the fun aspect of instant elimination and all of us on twitter talking about the same game.

Frank: “I have better things to do.” Dumbest answer to an exit interview ever, a true indication he wasn’t qualified for the job or both?
Klaw: I’ll go with both. The man was simply overmatched by the requirements of the job. He had no relevant experience, had been out of the team side for 14 years, and was not forward-thinking in the least. But at least the Dbacks managed to employ a bunch of his – er, his wife’s – clients, so he’s still going to get paid by them!

Ryan: I know you hate this topic, but Tim Tebow is going to the AFL… on a scale of ‘vastly overmatched’ to ‘why is this dude even here?!’ how will he do?
Klaw: We know why he’s there, but I expect him to be vastly overmatched.

JJ: So, if the Diamondbacks are in that big a hole (and I agree with that assessment), should they actively try to deal Goldschmidt this off-season to speed up the rebuilding? He’s already 29 years old, but I could definitely see an AL team like the Red Sox or Yankees being very interested in him as a 1B/DH, and they would have the minor leaguers to deal.
Klaw: That would be the smartest strategy for speeding up a rebuild, but I would imagine ownership objecting to the team trading its best and I think most popular player.

Nick: With Moniak having limited power potential, who would you have chosen #1 in the draft Rutherford or Moniak? They seem to be similar players with Rutherford having a higher power ceiling.
Klaw: I think I ended up with Moniak one slot above Rutherford on my rankings, but I liked both guys a ton and either would have been a good choice. I thought both were top five talents in the class.

Scooter: The “I have better things to do” comment was taken massively out of context… everyone go read the transcript or watch the video please
Klaw: I did. And it wasn’t. He was relieved that the job was over, and said he had better things to do.

Mike: Re: Shunning – I think you want to shun because it seems like she’s protecting an abuser, but not because she can’t accept that he’s an abuser or won’t leave the marriage. At some point, she may need help getting out of that relationship. And the original poster and OP’s wife may want to be available to support that.
Klaw: I agree with that; I think the shunning is self-protection, too. The victim likely wants no contact with her abuser, and since Bryan has mentioned having kids, they shouldn’t want those kids anywhere near the abuser either. But to your point, we all have an obligation to help someone escape an abusive relationship if we are asked.

Anonymous: Highly recommend John O’Hara “Stories”that just came out. Fitzgerald & John O’Hara are up there on my favorite authors, can you suggest anyone stylistically like them?
Klaw: Thanks, I do love Appointment in Samarra. Some Graham Greene novels (not the Catholic ones) remind me of those two. Hangover Square is a bit in that vein, but darker. No one can really touch FSF for prose style in my view, though.

Henry: Keith, if you were named the MLB commissioner today, what are the first two or three things you would do to improve the game/system?
Klaw: The whole july 2 free agent system is broken and needs an overhaul. I’d sever free agency from the draft, at least so that you don’t lose a pick by signing a free agent. I’d pay minor leaguers a reasonable wage in exchange for an agreement not to sue. I’d resolve the Oakland stadium situation any way possible – probably by relocation, but whatever it is, they need a new home. And I think Manfred is already doing this, but I’d try to normalize MLB’s relations with Cuban baseball as the US normalizes relations with the Cuban government, so we can smooth the flow of players from Cuba to MLB and perhaps allow US players to go play there as well.

Alex: Manfred said he was open to changing the September call up rule. Can this happen for next season and what do you think is a reasonable fix to the current situation?
Klaw: Limiting the number of active players for any specific game would be a good start. The goal should be to make September baseball look like July baseball, not to constrain it to the point where it becomes a problem for, say, a 15-inning game.

JR: Is TJ Riveria an everyday MLB player? If you were the Mets, would you pencil him in as your everyday 2B next year, or look to upgrade (i.e., re-sign Walker?)
Klaw: No, barely a bench option. I might try to re-sign Walker for a year, because I’m not sure about Cecchini’s bat being good enough for 2b right now (and his throwing problems got worse this year, to the point where I don’t think he’s a shortstop).

Levi: If no Goldschmidt trade, perhaps Pollock?
Klaw: It would make sense. I also think Drury could start for someone, but not Arizona if Goldy is still there. They have pieces. They just need a different mind in charge. It’s just not that bad a roster.

Lucas: have you ever been to an “after hours” event at Magic Kingdom, i.e. Christmas party or Halloween Party. Im taking my 11 year old and 8 year old in November and wondering if it worth the extra $$
Klaw: I haven’t, because they’re expensive and being a cast member doesn’t get me any special privileges for those parties.

Andrew: Why did Eppler deal Santiago for Nolasco/Meyer? If I recall correctly, Santiago’s a free agent next year and they could’ve easily had gotten a comp pick out of him which has to have higher value than Alex Meyer at this point.
Klaw: They must believe that Meyer has untapped potential, although I think he’s far more likely to end up a reliever given his age and lack of progress.

Nick: If the gap between Moniak and Rutherford is so close, why were they drafted 17 spots away from each other? All signability concerns?
Klaw: All signability concerns. Rutherford was seen as a tough sign because he would have been sophomore-eligible out of college (2018 draft).

Nick: In regards to the Magic Kingdom question it is very much worth it.
Klaw: There you go. Thanks for the help.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – I have more writing to do and some errands that have to happen before my daughter gets home from school. Thank you all as always for your questions and for reading.

My annual look at players I got wrong is up for Insiders. You can also preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon.

Klaw: I’m sorry, but I’m just thinking of the right words to say. Klawchat.

Lark11: I’m curious about your view (if I recall correctly) that A.J. Preller shouldn’t be fired for the player medical records machinations. Wasn’t that pure fraud/intentional misrepresentation? Coming on the heels of Preller’s previous misdeed, isn’t this an important data point? Doesn’t it call into question the integrity of the entire organization?
Klaw: I think you’re assuming we know all the details of the transgression. I certainly don’t.

Chris Matthews: Who’s your favorite foreign leader?
Klaw: President Don Vincente Ribiera.

Nelson: If news came out the next day that Fernandez was drunk and driving the boat, would/should the memorials have been any different?
Klaw: I was afraid that this might actually happen. His death isn’t any less of a tragedy for it. We might choose not to honor him in the same way, but I would hate to see anyone argue that we shouldn’t mourn his death.

Omar Little: Is Verlander or Kluber the frontrunner for CY young right now? JV has the better numbers overall, but not by much. I know Sale is up there too. It won’t be Porcello will it? Thanks KLAW for all you do!
Klaw: I think Verlander’s got a solid narrative behind him – we thought he was done as an elite starter, now he’s probably top 3 in the league – although I am not sure I’d put him over Sale or Kluber.

Jake: If we are going to focus on the SSS of Tebow yesterday, how about we discuss the 5 outs in 6 at bats against players ten years younger?
Klaw: How about we ignore him like the washed-up quarterback he is?

Daniel, Texas: Why is Ian Desmond having such a poor second half? Is Carlos Gomez the better player for CF going forward in 2017?
Klaw: Desmond’s first half was the outlier. (I’ve noticed the trolls telling me I was wrong to criticize that signing have disappeared, too.) I prefer Gomez’s raw ability and potential for plus defense, but isn’t banking on him a huge bet on a tiny sample?

Brian Gunn: Hi Klaw. In today’s ESPN piece you write that the Cubs “position their fielders as well as any team in baseball.” Yet they also shift less often than any team in baseball. Does Sean Ahmed (their defensive metrics guru) know something normally progressive teams like the Astros and Pirates don’t? And if so, do you think there will be a move AWAY from shifts in upcoming seasons?
Klaw: It’s a coding issue – BIS doesn’t mark anything as a shift if it doesn’t involve an infielder moving to the opposite side of second base. (I’m 99% sure that’s correct.) Soif you move your shortstop so that he’s essentially behind second base, that’s not marked as a “shift,” but it looks like a shift to me – it’s extreme positioning, at least. So no, I don’t think you’ll see a move away from shifts, but you will absolutely see a rise in fine-tuning positioning per batter or per batter-pitcher combo and away from ‘dumb’ shifts where you just run the third baseman out into short right field for any pull-hitting LHB.

JT: Why and how are such terrible sites being cited during this campaign? Florida’s state GOP just tweeted a tinfoil hat site (infowars), as a for instance.
Klaw: Because people choose what they want to believe first and find links to confirm those beliefs second. Drop in on any so-called debate between vaccine denialists and, well, rational human beings, and you’ll see the former hit you with a stream of links from garbage sites that promote junk science over real research.

JR, CT: Hi Keith, would you give the Mets any chance against the Cubs with their rotation in the shape it is now. I imagine best case is the lefty power bats get/stay hot and they can slug their way to some ugly wins?
Klaw: I would never give any team in a playoff series less than 45% odds to win it.

Jeff: A question some friends and I have been thinking about – can you name a player off the top of your head, whose reputation as a “great” player has been damaged by the advent of sabermetrics? I feel like Pete Rose would be one such player. Christ, the guy was named All Century and some delusional people still argue that he is the best hitter/player who ever lived.
Klaw: Andre Dawson. Tony Perez. I guess Jim Rice, although no one ever considered him a great player until he became the Luddites’ cause celebre. Jack Morris, perhaps.

Lance: What is the ideal Wild Card game roster construction?
Klaw: Carry 5-6 relievers and stack the bench with PH options (and maybe a Terence Gore if you have one).

Jason: What were your thoughts of Jonathan Villar coming through the minors? Did you think he had this much power?
Klaw: Nope. When he was traded to Houston I wrote that I didn’t foresee more than fringe-average power. Granted that was five or six years ago, but still, he’s got more than that.

kg: If you were a GM, would you prefer to play a youngster with a low ceiling or sign a veteran that you might be able to flip at the trade deadline for better prospects? Assuming that your team isn’t expected to make the playoffs this year. I would think the veteran with hopes to acquire prospects might be a better option since most teams can afford to fit a veteran’s contract into their budget anyway.
Klaw: Depends on what that “low ceiling” is. An average everyday player who makes $500K a year is an extremely valuable commodity, even if there’s zero chance he’s ever better than that.

Nick: What’s your take on Alex Jackson? Do you still think he can become a middle-of-the-order bat with the right coaching and adjustments? Does he have to get out of the Seattle org?
Klaw: I would not give up on him entirely given his youth, but every report I got this year was negative.

Owen: Regarding Terriers (from your review of TV: The Book), it might be the greatest single-season show in history. You should absolutely try to squeeze it in this winter.
Klaw: It’s on the list I’ve created for myself, although the odds are good I won’t get through much this winter because we never seem to have that much time between when my daughter falls asleep and when we have to do the same.

Mike: Thoughts on Spencer Kieboom’s promotion?
Klaw: Great defender, pitchers love working with him, long shot to do much with the bat. The Ramos injury is just brutal for them.

NeedsMoneyToLive: I couldn’t tweet my support since I work for an MLB club, but worse than the “new GM mold” is the insistence on requiring lengthy unpaid internships in order to be considered for a job in MLB. I know you’ve supported eliminating them before but the spotlight really needs to go on this awful practice.
Klaw: Totally agree. I think everyone in MLB knows there’s a problem, but the status quo is working for individual owners so they don’t want to be the ones to change it.

Jason: How long until a team announces that, absent extraordinary circumstances, no pitcher will go through the lineup more than 3 times?
Klaw: Why announce it? Just do it. Let other teams figure it out. Plus this way you avoid media questions when those circumstances do occur.

Nick: Cesar Hernandez as a 4.2 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR. Is he really an above-average regular moving forward or are we just seeing a random spike in the defensive metrics?
Klaw: I’ve spoken to a lot of analysts while working on my book, and one thing that’s come up often is skepticism of large one-year spikes in defensive metrics like this one. If a player is +15 like CH is this year, without any history of it, you can say with some certainty that he’s been an above-average defender, but should doubt that he’s been THAT good a defender. MLB clubs have much more precise data to work with and they implied that they get fewer of these outliers.

Jason: Are advanced scouting tools inevitably skewed toward run prevention (e.g., batted ball days leading to defensive positioning)? If not, what types of things can you envision that would help offense?
Klaw: That’s what’s happening right now with analytics, but I think the new data streams will end up influencing all parts of the game. Defensive positioning is just the low-hanging fruit.

Nick: Who’s more likely to put it all together moving forward: Eric Hosmer or Yasiel Puig?
Klaw: Still think there’s something more to be extracted from Hosmer’s bat. Might need a different organization & hitting philosophy.

Marcus: Hi Keith. Thanks for the weekly chats. The Giants have been lacking a true power threat pretty much since Bonds. When I look through their minor league system, I don’t see any big-time power threats and what players they have with a modicum of power look like they strikeout a lot. Have they got anyone who could develop into a 30-40 HRs a year power threat at the big league level?
Klaw: Not off the top of my head. Shaw has that kind of raw power, but it’s a below-average hit tool (slow bat, doesn’t see the ball well). Reynolds is more like a 25 HR/25 SB guy, and strikeouts are an issue with him because he tends to run very deep counts and needs a better two-strike approach. I like him quite a bit, though, more than Shaw.

Colin: Have you written anywhere about your favorite roasters in the US? I am looking to try some new stuff
Klaw: I assume we’re talking coffee here. I haven’t, but here’s a bunch: Intelligentsia, Four Barrel, Blue Bottle, Cartel, heart, Archetype, Deeper Roots, Re-Animator, Royal Mile, Cuvee, 49th Parallel (BC).

Ridley Kemp: Rolling Stone left The Prisoner completely off their top 100 TV shows list. Were there such glaring omissions from the TV: The Book book?
Klaw: Nothing I noticed. I mentioned in my review that I thought Will & Grace might get a mention, since it was a cultural milestone, but it just wasn’t that great a show, especially after the first two seasons, and Sepinwall confirmed to me that that was the reason it didn’t make the cut. (The Prisoner wasn’t eligible for their book because it was British.)

Eric: Regarding Kyle Hendricks, you may have been wrong but certainly at least some of his success is due to landing on the right team at the right time. To his credit, he appears to have reached his 99% percentile of optimal performance. Is that more on him or on the Cubs? I feel that baseball is littered with prospects that could have been somebody if they had only been on the team with the right coaching and management in place to maximize their talent but maybe I’m overstating it.
Klaw: I talked about that a little bit, but I didn’t want to make it seem like I was somehow walking back the assertion that I made a mistake. (I hate calling it an “admission,” as if I made a moral error. “Forgive me, Bill James, for I have sinned.”) You are correct in that he is in the right place at the right time in baseball history, where the Cubs, a very analytically-minded organization top to bottom, could see him and the data and get him to throw his changeup more, to try to work more to the edges of the strike zone, to encourage contact because the fielders will be in the right places. Give the player credit too – I would always rather say, hey, I was wrong, because the kid made me wrong.

JJ: DId Yoan Moncada benefit at all from riding the bench for the Red Sox over the last six weeks? Aside from the pretty healthy per diem. In his limited ABs, he struck me as a guy who absolutely needed another 750 plate appearance in the minors (at least), not to mention a ton of innings at whatever defensive position they’ve chosen for him.
Klaw: Yes and perhaps that’s the benefit – it told everybody that he needs to start next year in the minors.

Danny: I’ve seen people suggest it would be appropriate to honor Jose Fernandez by voting for him to win the Cy Young award. Normally, I’m opposed to “stunts” like this that would otherwise never be suggested if not for tragic circumstances..but you could certainly do a lot worse with your Cy vote this year..
Klaw: He’s deserving, but not the top candidate. Perhaps the NL Cy Young Award could become the Jose Fernandez Award, and the Cy Young Award would just refer to the AL?

Ted: Do you agree with the notion that postseason results are just based on randomness?
Klaw: No. I believe that a human predicting the results will fare no better than a random prediction. I believe that a lot of luck goes into the postseason, from health to timing to matchups. But to say they’re just based on randomness would wipe out any role the players themselves play. Madison Bumgarner having the October of his life – of anyone’s life – was not “random.” The result, the Giants winning the WS as the 8th best team in baseball, may seem random in context, but the victory itself was not random.

Jason: Could Zach Davies have a similar career arc of Kyle Hendricks? I am not saying under 2 ERA good, but a solid #3 starter type?
Klaw: He was quietly very good this year, and I looked at him for today’s article but decided there wasn’t really enough of a delta between what he did and what I thought he’d be (4/5 starter). League-average starter? I’ll buy that.

Ron: Keith-Did the Twins hire Falvey? Good hire? Whom do you think he will tap for GM?
Klaw: They will be hiring him. I don’t know him that well, and am surprised they would hire a President who has never formally run a department of any sort; they interviewed Chaim Bloom, who appears to have the same skill set and background, but has managed a department before. That’s not a knock on Falvey per se, and may simply reflect my own ignorance. I have no sense of what they’ll do for GM.

William: I have a hard time understanding why people often rush to deny science and politicize it. Once a concept is established it just seems foolish to fight it. With climate change for example, it is ok to disagree with the best policies to combat it, but I fail to see how denying man’s role in it serves a political ideology. I am convinced that the vaccine deniers and climate change deniers would have been Heliocentrism “skeptics” in the 16th and 17th centuries.
Klaw: Yet we have a major political party arguing it’s bunk, and its candidate for President claiming it’s a fiction created by China. This is an existential crisis that affects everybody – the cost of food, the supply of clean water, the feasibility of living near coasts, global energy costs and supply – and slightly more than half of our polity is in abject denial.

Adam: Hunter Dozier — is he a DUDE or just a dude?
Klaw: Just a dude, I think.

Greg: Assuming all the Mets 7 good SP’s (not including Lugo) are healthy going into next yr (obviously a huge huge assumption) do you think the Mets should go straight up with a 6 man rotation?
Klaw: I’m not certain that actually helps – pitching guys less within games seems like it has more benefit in fatigue reduction. That’s based on scant evidence, though. Either way, this is hypothetical because it seems impossible that all seven will be healthy at the same time.

Jonny B: What would be more upsetting: Britton winning the AL Cy Young, or someone other than Trout winning AL MVP? For some reason, the idea of any closer winning the Cy Young seems objectively indefensible.
Klaw: Upsetting is putting it strongly; the writers as a whole are bad at this stuff and will always be, perhaps increasingly so as the gap between what teams know and what we know increases. If Trout loses, it’ll be to Betts, who’s #2. If Britton loses, it would be like David Ortiz winning MVP this year – a narrative defeating facts.

Jorge: We’re cooking a 1.5 lb corned beef using our sous vide machine. We’ve seen a ton of diff advice on what lenghth/temp to do it at. What says you?
Klaw: I say corned beef is disgusting.

Bryan: How come you love to pull the “absence of evidence…” card on a multitude of occasions, but still refuse to acknowledge the mere possibility that PED’s might assist player performance without iron clad proof?
Klaw: I’ve acknowledged the possibility on numerous occasions, and even supported it in the case of amphetamines. So I don’t think you know what you’re talking about.

JG: With Falvey only being 33, do you see any animosity with a GM who likely will be older?
Klaw: Well, if that’s the case, Falvey shouldn’t hire him.

Danny: My Asdrubal Cabrera cog diss is kicking in again. I know the numbers say he is no longer a good player, but every game he seems get a huge hit or make a great play. Please give me another dose of reality and remind me the numbers don’t match what my eyes are seeing.
Klaw: They don’t. UZR has him 18th of 24 shortstops this year, and a couple of guys below him aren’t really shortstops. Also, it has Elvis Andrus among the worst, which surprised me. UZR isn’t the be-all and end-all but it matches the eye test on Cabrera.

Michael: Coffee: black or with milk/cream?
Klaw: If it’s real coffee, black, no sweetener.

Ryan: If you got to ask one debate question for both candidates, what would you ask?
Klaw: Explain the difference between Keynesian economics and the monetarist school. Or something about climate change, but this year that would be a rout.

Ant: Reports indicate Austin Riley was catching up to fastballs much better in the second half. Still down on him?
Klaw: Yes. His bat speed hasn’t changed – that’s wishful thinking.

Randy: I’ve seen comps that have compared Alex Verdugo to Markakis, is that about right or do you have a different comp?
Klaw: I think he has more power than Markakis ever managed to show in the majors, although Markakis as a prospect projected to show more than he ever did.

Rob: I love Carcassonne, but haven’t tried any of the expansions. What are the best, and are any of them “essential” (IE, you wouldn’t want to play without them again)?
Klaw: Traders and Builders is pretty awesome.

Bill: In his post-game press conference, Brad Ausmus said that he was reticent about bringing Fulmer back after a 45-minute rain delay in a game in which he had already thrown 68 pitches in three innings. I’m thinking “insane” or possibly “foolhardy.” Any other descriptions come to mind?
Klaw: Didn’t he pull the same shit with Daniel Norris last September? A 50-something pitch first inning, right? Just fire him. This isn’t a solitary error in judgment. It’s a pattern of ignorance. (And hire Alex Cora to replace him!)

Anonymous: As an advocate, I’m curious for your thoughts. I’ve considered being screened for anxiety/depression with medication following, but am hesitant because I don’t like the idea that taking meds means I’m no longer “me”? Any advice?
Klaw: Been taking meds for anxiety for four years and I’m more “me” with them than I ever was without them. Prior to that – I take escitalopram, 20mg/day – the person you saw, met, even talked to online was dominated by the effects of the constant low hum of anxiety. Now I think more clearly, I’m more deliberate, I’m calmer, and everyone in my life has noticed.

Adam: Hi Keith! Thanks for everything you do. I enjoy reading your book reviews, and want to start reviewing the books I read as well to help me form my thoughts about them. I’m curious, did you write reviews for yourself before you had a platform? And do you take notes about books you read, or just compose the reviews on the fly?
Klaw: Never wrote for myself before, and I rarely take notes unless there’s a great quote I want to remember. Glad you enjoy them.

Anthony: Coffee: light, medium, or dark roast?
Klaw: Light. I’m a third-wave guy.

JT: What percentage of the claims against Clinton are legitimately true? Think that she’s on her death bed, she had detractors killed, she ordered a stand down in Benghazi, she ruined her husband’s accusers, she’s really a reptile level junk.
Klaw: Who can tell? I feel like the GOP would do better to focus on the actual policy questions, such as things she voted for in Congress that were mistakes – I would say the Patriot Act, but that’s probably not a good talking point for them – rather than this stuff or blaming her for her husband’s imbroglios.

JP: What if Keurig offered you $1 billion to endorse their K-cups? Does even Klaw’s dignity have a price?
Klaw: No shot. Bad coffee + environmental disaster.

JC: Is Goldschmitt the player you’ve missed out on by the widest margin in your career? BTW I think your track record is amazing.
Klaw: I think so. And if I could time-travel back to when he was in the minors, the one thing I would tell myself most on him is “just give him more of a chance.”

Ramanujan: Are bat speed and power correlated? I assume power comes from hitting a ball hard, which I assumed meant keeping the bat moving quickly (while keeping your hands and wrists rigid)…or does keeping the bat rigid as possible matter more for power (while moving the bat quickly is literally all that is necessary to have bat speed)? I’ve heard you mention a few times that people
Klaw: I don’t think that’s true. Power comes from hard contact and launch angle. Hard contact can come from strength too, especially wrist and forearm strength.

Adam: Any college pitchers in this draft with TOR potential?
Klaw: Wright and Faedo might.

Adam: Thoughts on the DBacks firing of De Jon Watson?
Klaw: I’d heard some anecdotal stuff about his time there that was unfavorable, but nothing to compare to the more concrete stories about TLR and Stewart screwing up the rules or mishandling their players. I think De Jon got scapegoated bigly.

Adam: At least two national writers believed the Padres should have been forced to send Anderson Espinoza back and received a lesser prospect from the Red Sox in light of the Preller fiasco. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: Can’t see how you can do that. You can only send the two teams back to the negotiating table, at which point Preller would have said “just send back Pomeranz.” It works better when the player with the injury issue is the prospect or one of the prospects, not the main target in the deal.

Jamie: I am sure you have heard of Harvard’s new policy on final clubs. What are your thoughts on the clubs themselves and the policy?
Klaw: They were extralegal when I was there; I don’t know if they still are. I wasn’t in one – it was largely rich kids or occasionally athletes, and I was and remain neither – and they were mostly invisible to me. (Fraternities are illegal at Harvard, for those who don’t know. For that I was fairly grateful.)

Adam: Baseball player most likely to kneel during the national anthem: Bryce Harper?
Klaw: Carlos Delgado wouldn’t stand for it in protest of the US Navy’s use of Vieques for bombing practice. It wasn’t that big of a deal at the time. Harper wouldn’t kneel, though – I think you’ve got his profile wrong.

Steve: Better 1B bat: Ronald Guzman or Rhys Hoskins?
Klaw: Hoskins. I am not sold on Hoskins’ real power, but Guzman I think has that.

Logan: What’s your opinion on Maikel Franco going forward? Is his low OBP due to lack of anything protecting him and trying to do too much?
Klaw: It’s his approach. What you offered are excuses. He’s never been a patient or disciplined hitter; he has great plate coverage, even out of zone, and is so damn strong he can do stuff with pitches other guys couldn’t hit fair. But he needs a significant improvement in his selectivity for his OBP to become acceptable.

Sgt Donnelly: Whose stock would you buy for the next 5 years: Buxton or Mazara? PS Thanks for sharing your baseball insight
Klaw: The offensive bar for Buxton to become an average big leaguer is so low because of his great defense & baserunning that I’d take him, easily. And I love Mazara.

Tracy: Have you read anything beyond The Hound of the Baskervilles? I’m asking because I’m eyeing an exquisite hardbound volume of Conan Doyle’s complete Sherlock Holmes works and I’m wondering if it’s worth it.
Klaw: A bunch of the short stories. They’re all great.

Nick: Thoughts on AJ Reed this year? IIRC you had some concerns about how his bat speed would play in the majors. Do you think that played a part in his high K rate, or was he maybe being too passive? Obviously he didn’t have too much of an opportunity to get acclimated with HOU fighting for a playoff spot this season.
Klaw: I think it was a factor, yes. Had he gotten more time in the majors, I think he would have made the same kind of adjustments he made in the minors, going the other way more with pitches he couldn’t get around on, which is why I rated him fairly highly despite concerns about the bat speed. For the reader who asked about Riley above, that’s the kind of player you hope he can become.

Aaron: I know it’s an extremely SSS, but less swing and miss so far from Renfroe. Encouraged?
Klaw: No, because it’s an extremely SSS.

Jeremy: It seems like you fit a ton of things you love to do into the same 24 hours I have, but I feel like I don’t do anything I enjoy. Any tips?
Klaw: I never want to assume too much about time, since some folks have to work two jobs or crazy hours just to pay the bills, but since you’re here I’ll guess that you have some flexibility. First thing I’d say is think about how you use your day and look for the time you’re not using well. I never sit in front of the TV unless it’s for something I really want to watch, for example. I used to do that, and then after a while I realized I was wasting part of every day and getting nothing out of it.

Elton: What are your thoughts on Peraza and Herrera for the Reds next year? Would the optimal result be Herrera at 2B (assuming they somehow liquidate Brandon Phillips) and Peraza as a roving backup/punch runner?
Klaw: I’d play Herrera at 2b and send Peraza back to AAA to play every day, preferably at SS. Peraza’s performance there this year was pretty mediocre and I wouldn’t be rushing him into a MLB job at ~23.

Brayden: Is JP Crawford still an elite prospect after a down year or is he over-hyped? Yes he was young for AAA but his gap power is non-existent.
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line, and yes, he’s still an elite prospect, just very young for AAA as you said.

Nick: Speaking of players you were wrong about, do you still like the Jason Heyward contract?
Klaw: Yes, actually.

Rick: Why was Corey Seager passed on by 17 other teams? What was your report on him coming out of high school?
Klaw: He wasn’t “passed on” by other teams. He wanted well over slot, and had Boras, so some teams were afraid to take him and find he wouldn’t sign. This isn’t Trout again. Everyone knew that kid was special.

Chris: Great job as always in identifying who you were wrong about each year and owning up to that fact. You get it right a lot but it’s impossible to be perfect. Having said that, who are some players you missed on that you thought would be sure things at the major league level?
Klaw: Smoak is the one who’ll always bother me, because I never saw him do anything but hit, and pro scouts I talked to just raved about him up until he was traded to Seattle at the least. I thought Wieters would be a much better hitter too, while I’m at it. Lot of pitchers I liked were derailed by injuries – I had Zach Britton as a potential #2 starter.

Klaw: That’s all for this week; thank you as always for all of your questions. I’ll be back next Thursday if I’m not crushed by a hurricane.