My first mock draft for 2018 is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Money only pays the rent. Klawchat.

Tyler: I can only scout the stat line, but I’d guess with 9 BB in 11.1 innings that Josh Staumont still hasn’t figured it out? Career minor leaguer?
Keith Law: He’ll get major league opportunities, but the strike-throwing has always been the problem. The delivery is fine, the stuff is plus, the dude can’t throw it over the pointy white thing.

Chase: Do you think it’s a mistake for the Cardinals to have Jordan Hicks as a reliever before ever giving him a chance to start? Seems like they don’t mention him getting a chance like their other young arms that start in the BP.
Keith Law: On the contrary, I like breaking in starters as relievers. Earl Weaver pioneered this, and I’ve never seen any harm in it other than that teams sometimes shoot themselves in the foot by liking a guy so much in relief they forget to start him.

addoeh: How great would it be for Ichiro to retire after getting a couple of at bats when the Mariners play the A’s in Japan next year?
Keith Law: And an inning. There has to be one more inning on the mound before he goes.

BigPapaChuck: How far out are Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson for Atlanta? Could we see them this summer at all, or is 2019 more realistic?
Keith Law: Ian Anderson has a 5+ ERA through 5 starts in high-A. That’s just not a realistic question. Wright is closer and we have seen plenty of starters go from the SEC to the majors inside of 15 months.

Justin R: Who would say no to a 10-year, $300 million extension for Mookie Betts right now?
Keith Law: I don’t think either side would say no; Dombrowski hardly shies away from super-long extensions.

Ben: When is a middling team like the twins considered “done?” It’s probably different for a stacked underachieving team like the Dodgers, but for a team that needed to exceed expectations to make the playoffs and has struggled mightily, is there a certain point where they should look to sell?
Keith Law: In most cases, I’d say wait till Memorial Day before making any serious decisions like that. I would make an exception for the Orioles on Machado – they are not going anywhere this year, in that division, with that pitching staff, and there’s a clear need for Machado on at least one contender. Trading him now vs. June or July could really boost the return in a material way.

addoeh: On a 20-80 scale, how bad of a travel day was yesterday for you? Wake up in a hotel in one city two hours before the sun rises, fly to different part of the country, drive another two hours to see watch prospects, make the two return trip after the game, and a red eye back home.
Keith Law: So for folks who don’t know what my schedule was, I saw Jarred Kelenic in Kenosha, WI, on Wednesday evening (he was good); drove to Midway to stay that night; woke up at 5:10 am CDT to fly to Atlanta; landed an hour late due to weather; drove two hours to Ringgold, Georgia, to see Cole Wilcox (good) vs Kumar Rocker (not); drove back into Atlanta traffic, so probably spent three hours total on the way down, stopping for dinner (Recess at Krog Street Market, which was fantastic); then had my flight home delayed an hour because some part on the jetbridge shorted out and caught fire. I crawled into bed at 2 am ET. I don’t think this is unusual for scouts, so I’m not doing a “woe is me” thing here, but holy shit am I tired.

Dr. Bob: My kids are geeking out over May the Force Be with You day. Do you follow any sci-fi/fantasy stuff? Star Trek? Star Wars? X-Men? Avengers?
Keith Law: Not any more. Loved Star Wars as a kid. Anyway, Happy Cinco de Cuatro!

Larry: The Gorman-Atlanta connection is interesting. What’s your read on his swing and miss, plus chances he stays at third? Can he play corner OF if not?
Keith Law: Lot of swing and miss, but exacerbated this spring by what I think is a new, pull-conscious approach, when the dude should just worry about hitting. He’ll accidentally drop 30 bombs if he hits at all. Right field most likely, but even though he’s not good at third right now, I’d give him at least two years there. Austin Riley was a below-average defender when Atlanta drafted him, worked on it, got in shape, and now he’s at least a 55 defender there (from a 40), maybe even more.

Bret: If you were in Ross Atkins’ shoes, when does Vlad Guerrero Jr. get his first MLB call-up?
Keith Law: August.

Greg: Is Atlanta a legitimate contender for the division title or a wildcard spot?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I’m enjoying watching them anyway. It will be interesting to see if Anthopoulos trades away any prospect depth in July if they’re still in it. They do have some surplus on the pitching side, and guys who may not make their rotation would have value to other clubs.

Sean: What are your thoughts on Joe Gray, Jr? Is he a top 2 round guy?
Keith Law: That’s how I have him ranked.

PJ in JC: Jalen Beeks. A guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: Just a guy, I’m told. I have not seen him.

Jackstradamus: How good do you think Christian Villanueva actually is?
Keith Law: Everyday player, maybe? Not a .660+ SLG guy.

Brian: Before a couple of years ago I don’t remember any position players having Tommy John surgery. Now I can think of at least 4 (Knapp, Torres, Wieters and now Seager). Has something changed about how position players throw?
Keith Law: Craig Wilson, Todd Hundley, John Baker. I think Rocco Baldelli had it. Kyle Blanks. Shin-Soo Choo, but he pitched some as an amateur and threw hard. I think you don’t remember them because they don’t miss as much time.

Prospect Expansion Pack: Have you seen/ heard anything about Luis Robert or Juan Pablo Martinez this spring?
Keith Law: Neither has played.

Jack: Jeter Downs is playing second with Jose Israel Garcia at SS. If Downs moves to a higher level before Garcia, do you think he moves back to short?
Keith Law: Yes, if only for maintaining some flexibility.

Matthew: What is your take on the Braves calling up Bautista today? I think it’s a good move but Braves twitter is not so sure.
Keith Law: Eh. Worth seeing if there’s anything left.

JT: Do you find it exhausting to constantly have to swat at proliferating hate online? I found an old friend online this week, only to discover that he believes in climate denial, racial essentialism and Jordan Peterson. I’m tired.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel an obligation. I have a sizable platform. I could just use it to promote myself, but I think I should try to use it to do some good in the world.

leprekhan: You mentioned Nolan Gorman as being connected to the Braves in your mock, are there any other names that they have been connected to? How strong of a possibility is Kumar Rocker at #8?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any chance they do Rocker there. He’s not good enough, and yesterday didn’t help his chances.

286: What is DL Hall’s ceiling for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Above-average or better big league starter.

Jack: Is Dennis Santana’s changeup a legit enough third pitch to make him a potential #3?
Keith Law: No. Not a starter’s delivery the last time I saw him, either.

Steve: Is Stanton’a slow start just SSS streakiness, or something mechanical?
Keith Law: Homeboy’s slow start is still a .336 wOBA, so it’s more than he has hit for a month the way he hit all of last year. I’m not concerned.

Chris: What’s the deal with Senzel getting pulled from the game yesterday. I really hope this isn’t the vertigo revisiting.
Keith Law: Dizziness, per C. Trent Rosecrans & Guildenstern, Attorneys at I Don’t Make the Lineup.

Travis: Reports are that Cole Wilcox was amazing last night. How high could he go? Have any teams emerged as likely landing spots?
Keith Law: I was there. He was very good; amazing might be pushing it. I had him in the new mock and believe he goes in the top 20 or so picks.

Garrett: Has Ohtani’s hot start at the dish changed your mind at all? He destroys the baseball almost every time he is up. Or is it still too few PA’s?
Keith Law: It’s 55 AB. And no, he doesn’t destroy the baseball almost every time he is up. Good grief.

Chris: I see Gore hasn’t pitched in full action since his first start. Any cause to worry about an injury?
Keith Law: Blister.

Ben G: Hey Keith,

Do you share Mike Rizzo’s belief that Juan Soto has a similar outlook as a prospect to Robles?
Keith Law: Similar upside, yes. Different player. I’ll see him Monday here in Wilmington along with Kieboom.

EricVA: Justus Sheffield to AAA. Can he help the Yankees this year or not until next year?
Keith Law: This year if needed. Wouldn’t object to a relief role to start for him.

Ron Shelton: I think the real-life Nuke LaLoosh has finally arrived and his name is Matt Manning.
Keith Law: Where are the Tigers fans who were extremely mad online when I didn’t rank Manning in my top 100?
Keith Law: FTR, I don’t think the book is closed on Manning, but he had serious control problems last year and didn’t show the same velocity he had in HS.

Todd: Who has a better major league career, Michael Gettys or Buddy Reed?
Keith Law: Neither.

286: Dylan Bundy has had two rough starts in a row. Is that a byproduct of the calcification in his shoulder? How long can he hold up?
Keith Law: No healthy pitcher has ever had two rough starts in a row. I’m so glad you brought this to our attention.

JT: Have you heard of the QAnon nonsense on Twitter and Facebook? Is there any way for those platforms to rid themselves of such obvious misinformation?
Keith Law: Those platforms just don’t do enough to rid themselves of trolls, bots, etc. There’s a Twitter account with a decent following whose profile quotes the Turner Diaries (a notorious anti-Semitic, racist trash novel revered by neo-Nazis). I reported it. They said “no violation.”

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering how much you think Mets fans should buy into Alonso’s numbers and if you think he will/has passed Dom in terms of how highly the Mets look into him as the future 1B.
Keith Law: I answered this last week. I’m a believer.

Adam D.: With the full understanding that it’s way too early to be sure about anything, what level of confidence do you have that Singer is the pick for the Giants at #2? I am not enthusiastic about it, as you might have noticed.
Keith Law: I have heard them with four players; he and Bart are the two most likely, again, given what I’ve heard from #sources.
Keith Law: I share your lack of enthusiasm. I have never understood the fascination with Singer. There are guys with better stuff, and better deliveries, and better command in this draft.

Joe: What makes Lucchesi’s two pitch mix effective (where other starters can’t survive with just two) and do you think he can have long term success with just two pitches?
Keith Law: Hitters do not pick up pitches well at all from him. His release point is extremely consistent.

Jack: What were your grades on Nomar Mazara’s raw and game power as a prospect? The guy looks like he should be hitting 35 a year and he doesn’t hit any cheap bombs, but his overall approach doesn’t always get to the pop.
Keith Law: I don’t do grades any more – people would focus way too much on the numbers and not on the words, and I am not fucking interested in arguing if a player has 60 speed or 65 speed, sorry – but I always thought he’d be a 30-homer guy. He did have plus raw even when young.

Joe: You mocked Gorman to the Braves at 8. Do you think n he is the highest upside power hsbat in draft? And would you take him that high?
Keith Law: He has the most raw power in the draft, period. I would not take him there, because the hit tool really worries me, but that’s not to say this is a bad pick.

1904 MDB: Fernando Tatis JR. starting to catch fire, where does he end the year?
Keith Law: Probably triple-A.

Didier: Do you ever read comics or graphic novels? Any favorites?
Keith Law: No, not a fan.

Dave: Is Bobby Witt Jr someone who could end up being the next “super prospect”, like Harper or Griffey?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Good prospect, but also just the name you know because of his bloodlines.

Mike: Assuming Josh can play third base, no way the Jays can call up Vlad and stick him at DH……right?
Keith Law: Why not? Vlad was rough at third the last game I saw him, and his bat is clearly going to be ready before his glove.

Roger: If I, a regular old fan, wanted to find out information about a minor leaguer I’m interested in, what’s the best way to find out if he’s a GUY or just a guy? Scouting the stat line is only so helpful.
Keith Law: I write about a few hundred guys every January in the prospect package and then write about more every week, here and on Insider posts.

Jack: I just gave up on Corey Ray. Am I dumb?
Keith Law: Too soon. Plus, you hurt his feelings.

Ryan: While totally aware that Albies can’t sustain this HR pace, is it safe to expect some legit power out of him going further without sacrificing average and OBP?
Keith Law: I guess it depends on “legit;” 20 homers/year? Sure. I’ll buy that.

Archie: I see a lot of Joe Panik in Madrigal, albeit from the other side of the plate and with more speed. Is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I like Madrigal’s bat a lot more than I liked Panik’s at the same age.

Lilith: What would it realistically take to get MLB to place a 3rd team in the New York area? (either Brooklyn or Newark)
Keith Law: Revoking MLB’s antitrust exemption. I don’t expect that to happen in my lifetime.

Tyler: Hi Keith. Do you think Sonny Gray can get back to his A’s form?
Keith Law: Yes, but they’ll have to change his pitch mix and get him to try to work four-seamers up again.

Satya: How does Casey Mize compare to Kyle Wright as a draft prospect?
Keith Law: Mize is way better.
Keith Law: Wright had size. Mize has better stuff, better command/control.

Moltar: Thanks for chatting, Keith. Your info is always solid so I’m sure it’s motivated, but India to the Mets at 6 was very surprising. Most reports I saw on him had him more sandwich round than top 10. Was this more a function of Bart, Bohm and Madrigal being off the board in your mock? If the Mets are intent on a college bat, do they clearly prefer India to, say, Swaggerty?
Keith Law: Again, this is all based on what I’ve heard from sources in the industry. Nobody in the industry thinks India is a sandwich pick. Swaggerty is barely hitting above .300 in a bad conference where he’s faced almost no quality pitching. I like the profile – CF with some pop, good eye, plus speed – but he has to actually hit, and his swing has slipped a little bit this spring.

Pat D: I just heard Harold Reynolds on WFAN and he said, and I am quoting, “The more pitches you take, the less chance you’re going to walk.” Now, he was trying to say that young guys who are struggling have to prove they can hit because otherwise pitchers will eventually just throw strikes by them. But, much more importantly, COME ON, am I right?
Keith Law: You made several mistakes there, starting with listening to Harold Reynolds on WFAN.

Phillip : Is bringing up Jose Bautista before seeing what you really have in Camargo a mistake?
Keith Law: Camargo isn’t a long-term piece.

John: What’s Fernando Romero’s upside, Wed he was throwing hard and it looked like both the FB and the slider had decent movement.
Keith Law: Top 100 guy for me the last two years. I think mid-rotation starter.

PJ in JC: Follow up on Beeks: does his ability to miss bats suggest he could at least be a weapon in the bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes.

Edward: Tyler Mahle has been striking out hitters at a higher rate in the bigs than any stop before in his career. Has he found another gear or pitch? Or just another sample size situation?
Keith Law: Aren’t strikeouts higher in general in the majors?

Rendall: I’m glad that Facebook has made eliminating fake profiles and fake news part of their new marketing campaign. Meanwhile, my feed continues to be full of it…
Keith Law: Yep. All talk, no action.

Darren: YOu mentioned Jordan Hicks so I’m curious, what would you do with Hader if you were GM? Have him start when Knebel gets back and ramp up his innings to be able to go 6 in the playoffs? If they make it.
Keith Law: I have always had a hard time seeing Hader starting with that arm action. He may truly have more value in this role than he could in 170 innings starting.

Dave in Delaware: Hi, Keith! Are there any players (HS or college) worthy of scouting time or attention in Delaware this year? If so, have you seen them?
Keith Law: I saw one kid, UVA commit, nice player but should go to school. I won’t see the three at Cape Henlopen, just due to distance and that they’re not top 100 guys, but all are d1 commits (UNC, UVA, Liberty) and could be top 100 types in three years.

Jacob: How close is the talent gap between Jarred Kelenic and Connor Scott? Is the difference the lengthy track record that Kelenic possess?
Keith Law: I think Kelenic has shown a lot more at the plate, hitting and especially power.

Josh: What are your thoughts on Matt Klentak? It seems like he’s really struggled with his first two drafts
Keith Law: He doesn’t run the draft; that’s Johnny Almaraz, their scouting director. This is a bit like that tweet I responded to a week ago, where Frank Wren was trying to take credit for Ronald Acuña – no GM sees the $100K kid his international director signs in Venezuela. That’s absurd. I think the Phils’ rebuild is very much on track, and I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have struggled badly with their last few first round picks, even predating Klentak – Cornelius Randolph doesn’t appear like he’ll ever justify going 10th overall, and Moniak and Haseley have been an unnatural disaster in Clearwater (Moniak .218/.231/.257, Haseley .271/.284/.355, a combined 4 walks and 46 K for the two of them).

Gary: Team needs or drafting philosophies notwithstanding, would it be a bad choice to take Madrigal 2nd after Mize? Reading through your mock, it seems like he has the best chance to be a productive big leaguer from the rest of the pool.
Keith Law: I think that’s a high floor and very limited ceiling pick. If you do that, you had better save enough to go well over slot in the second round.

Dave: What position do you think Mountcastle ends up at for Baltimore?
Keith Law: Most likely left field, but I’d keep trying to work on the throwing motion and see if he can stay at third. Dude’s gonna hit, though.

RSO: Is it possible for pitchers to boost their spin rate as much as some of the Astros starters have since coming to Houston, or do you think there is something fishy going on as Trevor Bauer alluded to?
Keith Law: I didn’t like when Bauer appeared to be accusing the Astros without directly saying so. His longer comments – no character limits! – were excellent, though: It is true that adhering something like pine tar to the ball can raise its spin rate, and that it is technically prohibited but scarcely if ever enforced. My understanding is that there are players doing this stuff now, but I don’t know anything at all about team-wide efforts like he implied.

Jax : Has Norris reached the point when a conversion to the bullpen needs to be discussed? Poor guy cannot stay healthy.
Keith Law: Almost none of this has been related to his arm.

Nick: Jonathan India has put up some sexy numbers this season. I’m intrigued by him after you mocked him to the Mets at 6. Do you think that would be a solid pick at 6 and what type of player do you see him becoming?
Keith Law: Very solid pick. Everyday player. I’d send him out as a shortstop, knowing you could always restore him to third or slide him to second.

Jax : I don’t expect Basabe to continue to put up these massive numbers but do you think he’s doing so because he’s repeating High-A? Or because he’s fully healthy now? Or a bit of both?
Keith Law: Almost certainly both.

Matt: Patrick Corbin’s fastball was down 3 MPH last night from his season average. He and Lovullo brushed it off as nothing, but that’s concerning right? How often does a guy lose velocity like that so dramatically and bounce right back to where he was? I honestly don’t know if this is something that happens or if this is an imminent sign of injury.
Keith Law: It’s concerning because it’s happened before. Corbin looks like a #2 at times, but has he ever held that for a full season?

Joe : Hey Keith, love the chats. If you could choose to have the Chapman or Andrew Miller return that the Yanks got back which would you take moving forward?
Keith Law: I think at the time I said I preferred the Miller return. That’s probably still true, but less clear.

Jax : Eric Longenhagen said that Christian Arroyo could possibly have a Solarte type of role and play all over the diamond while hitting fairly well? Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’s going to be as good defensively anywhere, but that seems more likely an outcome to me than everyday player at one spot.

Dan: Walker Buehler seemingly has a rotation spot that’s his to lose with the Ryu injury. How has Buehler looked so far this season? Where do you think they’ll cap his innings if he’s pitching well and the team is contending?
Keith Law: Didn’t they give a number before the season, as a rough target? I may be misremembering. Anyway, I would expect them to have him skip a start here or there because he’s never really had a full, healthy season.

Chaya: I know he’s young and it’s still early, but are you concerned at all about Heliot Ramos?
Keith Law: Not just young – he’s 18, younger than some guys in this draft class, and in full-season ball. I didn’t think the huge summer was indicative of stardom, but I also am not jumping off the Golden Gate now after a bad month. This is a big leap for a kid that young who was already a little raw at the plate.

Brett: What do you see as Yordan Alvarez’s ceiling? Does he have all-star upside?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

Jax : Your Astros sleeper Arauz has more walks than Ks and is hitting for far more power than he ever has while being a teenager in full season ball. Trajectory is certainly pointing way up, no?
Keith Law: Yes it is … as long as he stays off the juice.

Gray: Still no Juan Soto questions? Has Cooperstown started working on his plaque yet? Kid rakes.
Keith Law: Answered a half hour ago. Scroll back.

nelson: What do you think about other sports’ draft coverage? For me, I find stuff like NFL draft coverage to be extremely dull, full of “woo”, and totally mindless. Enjoy your coverage bc it’s based on knowledge you glean from conversations and not just 40 times.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine covering a draft with 15 minutes between picks. I do love that they have trades – our draft would be so much better with that. The NBA’s draft is the best on TV, IMO, because it’s only a few minutes between picks, the players are all there (in their sartorial splendor), and there can still be trades.

RSO: If Gleyber Torres was still in the Cubs organization would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be in danger of losing their jobs?
Keith Law: Yes, Russell more so. He seems to have stalled at the plate.
Keith Law: I’m most concerned with how he isn’t making hard contact like he used to.

Luke (Statesboro, Ga.): Is this the year Jorge Soler figures it out?
Keith Law: It sure looks like he has. He lost a lot of time to injuries, and although I always rated him highly I don’t think I ever projected him to be an OBP monster.

Pat: Hypothetical- If something happened to Mize (injury, bad medicals, whatever), who do you think Detroit would go with at 1-1.
Keith Law: Entirely fair question. My guess is they would shop a deal to 3-4 players, probably including Stewart, Singer, Bart, maybe Liberatore. Most folks I asked for that mock just assumed they’d take Mize, so I’m a little light on other info there.

Sean: How has Cal Quantrill looked so far this season?
Keith Law: What I’ve heard has been good – lot of 92-95, still working on better strikes, has really had just one bat outing out of six.

Ryan: Thanks for chatting Keith. If you are placing the top draft prospects into tiered buckets, at what slots do they move from Tier I to Tier II, Tier II to Tier III, etc?
Keith Law: Mize is in his own tier. I’d reorder that last top 50, with Winn, Bart, and India sliding up and Rocker, Vasil, McClanahan sliding down, and I’d put a line between those groups.
Keith Law: No more word on Vasil’s injury; he may throw a pen this week. It was irresponsible to have him throw an unscheduled relief inning that Saturday, two days before a scheduled start. Scouts were there Monday for the start, not Saturday.

Jim: You were high on Bryse Wilson – think you ranked him Top 60ish in your Top 100 – he’s been great this year. Assuming still a SP prospect for you?
Keith Law: Yep, all signs pointing up.

Craig: Are you doing the usual prospect update in May? Is Yordan Alvarez going to be one of the big risers
Keith Law: 1b only limits his ceiling. My May updates are cursory and usually only include 25 names, with just brief updates on injuries/promotions; I doubt he’d jump that far.

John: How do you think the Nats will approach the draft?
Keith Law: Same as always. They’ll take well-known guys with big upsides. Maybe an injured pitcher who fell.
Keith Law: Hell, it’s worked for them in the past.

JR: Kentucky Derby – interested or hard pass? Personally, I’ve never understood the appeal of horse racing.
Keith Law: I’ll watch. I don’t bet, and I don’t follow the sport. It’s a fun two minutes, though.

Walker: What happened to Jordan Swaggerty?
Keith Law: One g. Blew out and never really made it back.
Keith Law: Threw 26 innings total after TJ, missing all of 2012 and 2014.

Jon: Could vaccine hoaxers actually be harming efforts to find a cause/cure for autism? With so many studies focused on disproving the link between the two, doesn’t that take away from funding and studies that could be used to find a cause/cure?
Keith Law: I think they’re harming societal acceptance of autistic people, who are still more often lumped in with people who have mental disabilities rather than being classed as neurodiverse, as many autistic advocates would like to be.

Nick: What is Trent Grisham at this point? Can he still be an everyday player or better?
Keith Law: He’s on the DL with an ankle sprain right now, so let’s give him some time back at AA.

Jack: Have you watched Matt Boyd at all this year? Thoughts? I vaguely remember you being a fan through his struggles past couple years
Keith Law: Not a fan at all – thought he’d be excessively homer-prone, and he was. This year looks like a stone fluke – his FIP is over 4 and that’s even with a lower than normal HR/9.

JR: Is it time for Lauren Mayberry to thank the other members of Chvrches for the memories and great times and head out on her own? The new record is blah. Feel like she’s peaked with them and it’s time for her to go solo.
Keith Law: I completely agree on this. She has untapped upside. This album is kind of embarrassingly bad – not just blah, but a big step down in lyrical and musical quality.

Ian: So, is Junot Diaz now canceled?
Keith Law: Apparently so.

Ted: I know it’s early but Micker Adolfo off to a great start. He isn’t typically discussed as a top WS prospect but is he making a leap?
Keith Law: I’ve talked him up in their org reports for at least two years – enormous physical tools, but could barely play the sport when he signed. (That’s not an exaggeration.) He might not be a solid big leaguer till he’s 25 but the upside is really huge.

Jeremy: At the same time that Alonso is killing it, has Dom Smith’s stock fallen?
Keith Law: No, but he’s also not helping anyone, himself included, back in triple-A.

Adam: As the young talent on the Padres collectively struggle at the major league level, how many more years does Andy Green get before his seat starts getting warm?
Keith Law: That roster doesn’t have much of that system’s young talent at all.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Sean Reid-Foley?
Keith Law: Saw him two weeks ago. 92-95, but hitters seemed to be on it. Slider was often plus, but it merged with his curveball at lower velocities. Didn’t see a changeup. Off one look, I’d say he needs some third pitch to start – something for lefties, and just to keep righties from sitting on the fastball.

Gil: We can live with a persistent high K rate for Moncada with these types of slugging and wRC+ numbers, right? He seems to be coming into his own.
Keith Law: He has a .414 BABIP. Sure, you could live with that, but has any hitter in history sustained it?

Andy: Re Ghost: They seem to be dropping more of the Satanic things, and just going with a kind of Medieval theme. Also, they are no longer putting as much on the anonymity as Tobias Forge has done interviews out of character about the “band.”
Keith Law: Which is so much better. This is good, fun, throwback metal. Let that speak for itself. The black-metal stuff is at best tired, at worst really offensive (given the church burnings and ties to anti-semitism/xenophobic movements).

Rick: Mets have fallen back to earth. Adrian Gonzalez is still getting at bats. Nimmo can’t get at bats. Is it Callaway or Alderson?
Keith Law: Alderson has the hammer on that.

Dave: Keith, starting see a lot of connections between the A’s and Swaggerty, including your mock draft. Is this more a case of the A’s liking Swaggerty in particular, or the A’s liking a college bat and Swaggerty seems the most likey to fall to #9?
Keith Law: Good college bat who was previously projected to go much higher. There’s a value play in that.

Dave: Keith, do you think Joey Bart can be a middle of the order bat in the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but in the 4-5-6 sense, not a 2 hitter. High power, low average guy.

Don: Better lawyer, Lionel Hutz or Rudy Giuliani?
Keith Law: Rudy Giuliani is such a bad lawyer, he would have lost a false advertising suit against The Neverending Story.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – got some life stuff to catch up on before the school day ends. Thank you all for your questions this week and for reading. I expect to be back next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends and #fyeahbaseball!

My latest Insider post looks at four potential first-round arms for this June’s draft.

Keith Law: Seeing their children caught up in the latest Klawchat.

Mike : Would the Padres have been better off starting Tatis Jr. in high A?
Keith Law: Is this an overreaction to a slow April? No.

J: Is Mitch White hurt? Was trying to locate where he is assigned and what he is doing…?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s in extended.

addoeh: Given your the book you were reading earlier in the week; whose solo career do you prefer, Peter Gabriel or Phil Collins?
Keith Law: I don’t know Gabriel’s work between leaving Genesis and So well enough to answer that.

Megatron: Hey Keith, thanks as always for these chats. My question is about the White Sox double play combo. How are Anderson and Moncada putting up such good numbers (in fWAR, wRC+, OPS, etc.) despite sky high strikeout rates?
Keith Law: Only Moncada’s K rate is sky high, and his .385 BABIP won’t last either. Anderson has a 22% K rate, and he already has more than half as many walks in 2018 as he did in all of 2017 or 2016.

Alex: Per Fangraphs, Javy Baez’s ’17 wRC+ was 98, so far in ’18 he’s at 186 (SSS I know as less than 100 PAs). What’s a realistic full season expectation?
Keith Law: His rate stats are skewed by the 4 IBB he’s received (and only 2 unintentional, which I assume happened because the pitcher sneezed mid-delivery). I think a well above-average wRC+ is reasonable, something in the 120s, driven by power and what appears to be a consistent .330ish BABIP ability.

Dante: What’s the most obscure place you’ve traveled to see a prospect?
Keith Law: Kendallville, Indiana, to see Jarrod Parker; or Baxley, Georgia, to see Byron Buxton. Baxley was 2:40 from Macon, which is itself nearly 2 hours from Atlanta.

Steve Dalkowski: Has Severino made any changes to his delivery (or to his body) that would make you think there’s less chance of a breakdown in the next couple of years than you originally thought?
Keith Law: He has bulked up a lot, but I don’t think we know if that reduces breakdown risk, so I’d say no. Hell, anyone throwing that hard that regularly is probably at a higher than average risk, since one of the few things we know contributes to injury is regularly pitching with high (for you) velocity.

Frank: seems like the Yankees signing machado this offseason to a massive deal wouldn’t make sense anymore given didi, andujar, and gleyber look like long term pieces in the infield. what do you think?
Keith Law: Machado is a clear upgrade over Andujar anyway, so even though I believe Andujar will be at least an average regular, trading him and signing Machado still makes the team better.

Sonny Gray: WTF is wrong with me?
Keith Law: I discussed that with Buster on the podcast today. It might be about pitching style, not injury or stuff.

Grant: Keith, I know you’ve read Hyperion, but have you ready any other Dan Simmons? I’m currently reading The Terror and really enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: No, just Hyperion.

Glen: Andujar has been phenomenal lately, but am I wrong to be concerned he might be Maikel Franco?
Keith Law: Much better approach than Franco at the same age.

Tom F: What’s your take on Adbert Alzolay? Future 3-4 starter potential or bullpen guy in the bigs eventually? Doesn’t seem to have a ton of strikeout stuff
Keith Law: Future 3-4 starter. Reliever in the majors this year.

Mike: Is the third-time-through-the-order penalty just a fancy name for looking at pitch count? Is there anything to suggest that facing the 19th hitter on 70 pitches is harder than facing the 18th hitter (after adjusting for hitter quality of course)?
Keith Law: Yes, the data indicate that both variables are contributing factors: Increasing pitch count and hitter familiarity.

Mike: I feel like most 21-year-olds who put up a .300/.340/.540 line in AAA with 13 HR/18 SB in a half season at a premium position would have gotten a lot more press than Adalberto Mondesi did, probably because he’d already been so bad in the majors and lost his rookie status. Do you think there’s any reason to think he’s just a quad-A player or does he still have a good shot at a career?
Keith Law: More than a 4A guy, but doing that in AAA after you’ve played two months in the majors (and seen MLB pitching) is less impressive or predictive than doing it when you’ve never been above AA.

Darren: Hi Keith,
I would love to hear you discuss Didi and his growth. We knew he had a stellar glove but I dont’ think anyone saw this coming. Following in the footsteps of Jeter was one thing, ridding himself of the defense first guy took work, but now he is looking like one of the best all around players in MLB. Impressive.
Keith Law: Remember when Kevin Towers (RIP) comped him to Jeter, and everyone, myself included, scoffed? Guess Kevin out-scouted us all. I thought Didi had a swing geared for power but nowhere near the strength for it. He’s gotten a lot stronger, and the ball itself has helped him (is it a coincidence that he never hit 10 homers in a season until 2016?). The part that seems even more out-of-nowhere, and that might also indicate that he really is a top ten player in the AL, is that he’s suddenly walking like crazy without any increase in K rate.

BRM: Have you looked at the GenCon event list and if so, what are you looking forward to?
Keith Law: I glanced at it, but haven’t signed up for anything yet because I am finalizing my panel schedule in the writers’ symposium too.

Alex: Are there any San Diego area HS players I should make a point to go see?
Keith Law: Not this year. Only three SoCal prep players on my top 50 – Turang, Winn, McClain.

Greta: Hello Keith. Ever read any Hubert Selby, Jr.? If not, I’d recommend starting with Last Exit to Brooklyn or Requiem for a Dream.
Keith Law: I haven’t, and knowing what little I know about those books, I don’t think I’d like either.

Drew: Do you think the NL East will remain this competitive all season, or do you expect the Nats will begin to dominate the division once Rendon, Eaton, and Murphy return?
Keith Law: I would still pick the Nats to win the division. Dominate is too strong, and it doesn’t really matter if they win by one game or ten.

Kevin S.: In the minors, Tyler Austin’s performance got him on the back end of a couple top-100 lists ahead of the 2013 season, at which point he started suffering some really unfortunate injuries. He made it to the bigs, but struggled in limited playing time. Now that he’s healthy and playing with Bird out, he’s really tearing the cover off the ball. Is this just SSS theater, or is he starting to fulfill that promise he flashed five years ago?
Keith Law: Always loved the swing, wrist injuries killed him, so I’m happy to see this production … but you can’t strike out 1/3 of the time and produce like this over the long haul. Something has to give either way.

Josue: You linked to an article that claimed a white supremacist was running for School Board in North Dakota, but the article failed to provide a shred of evidence. I acknowledge he could actually be a real white supremacist, but why didn’t you link to a better article, if so? It essentially just interviews a few people who say they “heard” he is one and another person says he’s on the SPLC’s website as a white supremacist. With all the blunders of the SPLC, such as labeling muslim activist Maajid Nawaz an Islamophobe, or Ayaan Hirsi Ali an “anti-muslim extremist”, why would any logical person take the word of this organization? Who needs evidence when anyone with a different opinion is a white supremacist though, right?
Keith Law: The evidence is that he ran a neo-Nazi party, helped run Stormfront for nearly a decade and was once the assistant to David Duke. You’re also making a specious claim about the SPLC – if they’re wrong on one or two subjective assessments, you want to throw out all their assessments? That says more about you than about the SPLC.
Keith Law: I guess we know he has your vote, though!

Kay: Justin Dunn has had a much better start to this season – still profile as a potential top end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: Hello Keith,
I have been a fan of Ahmed Rosario and any discussion recently has people I chat with suggesting he is a better baseball player than fantasy without an impressive offensive upside. Little strike zone discipline or bad/aggressive approach, average hit tool. I know he is young for a lot of power to come, but what do you see his offensive upside being? What would be a reasonable expectation? Thanks for everything.
Keith Law: I think more than an average hit tool. He’s still young and has the same plus bat speed and physical projection he’s always had.

AJ: Why aren’t more teams willing to “buy” prospects, like Atlanta did taking Arroyo’s contract in order to get Toussaint? It seems that several rebuilding teams (ChiSox, Phillies) had the payroll room to absorb a bad contract in order to further bolster their farm systems. Thanks.
Keith Law: I think teams do this in larger transactions – moving money, taking a bad contract for a good one, taking your long contract for my three one-year deals – but deals like the Touki trade, which was “prospect + contract for org player,” look too much like the straight sale of a player and that would be discouraged by the league.

Rodney: Love your chats! I understand why you don’t like ranking players before they have time in pro ball. Has Griffin Canning played enough to give you a sense of where he ranks among Angels prospects?
Keith Law: I ranked him in January, but four starts/16 innings wouldn’t change that.

Tim: Is Peter Alonso the best 1B in the Mets org right now?
Keith Law: I still think Smith would be fine if the Mets would just play him, but Alonso would be a top 100 prospect now (given some graduations & new looks at him) and I think he’s an above-average regular at least.
Keith Law: Maybe Smith will show up on time if he thinks someone is right behind him…

Andy: Where do you think Gregory Polanco’s ceiling is after his first few seasons in the Majors? He’s frustratingly erratic in his on-field production.
Keith Law: Ceiling? Still All-Star. Dude walks, doesn’t strike out excessively, runs, has power, has bat speed … and has a .200 BABIP. I hate to just point to that one number, but good grief, you almost have to try to be that bad on balls in play.

Jo-Nathan: July 2nd guys have verbal agreements????? Do you think the MLB comes down any other teams for this practice?
Keith Law: No, they don’t care. You can only break the rules that they tell you it’s OK to break. Atlanta broke different rules.
Keith Law: The problem is this system incentivizes such rule-breaking. Don’t be surprised when smart people get creative and try end runs around your idiotic method of limiting payouts to Dominician teenagers.

JJ: Last year, the Cardinals had Carson Kelly on the bench behind Yadi Molina for the season, and he basically never played. This year, it’s Tyler O’Neill, basically doing the same thing. The writers at the St. Louis Post Dispatch insist that the youngsters gain a lot from sitting on the bench of the big league club. Wouldn’t they be better off playing every day in Memphis?
Keith Law: Yes. Or playing even semi-regularly in the majors. But that’s not the Matheny way.

Greg: Was watching Tyson Ross go for a 200 pitch no-hitter last week. When he hit 120 pitches, the announcers said “That matches his career high… set four days ago.” There needs to be a manager ejector seat, right?
Keith Law: They had it wrong. The near no-hitter was on 4/20 (whoa), and his previous outing was 107 pitches on the 13th.

Kay: Was reading about Gsellman taking a spot in the rotation – but he seems really dominant out of the bullpen, throwing harder and looking like he really embraced the new role. Where does he have the most value going forward?
Keith Law: I’d try him as a starter again.

Moncada: You said my .385 BABIP won’t last- which I agree with. But my batted ball stats and exit velocity do suggest that I am capable of sustaining an above average BABIP, right?
Keith Law: Yes, as would simply seeing the bat speed and hand strength. But that K rate is a huge limiting factor, and probably isn’t going down without major swing changes.

Adam D.: Any early buzz about who the Giants might take at #2? I would like to see an upside play like Stewart, but it seems like the general strength of the college players near the top, combined with their refusal to play the rebuilding game makes them likely to go that route. Thoughts?
Keith Law: The current buzz is that all or at least five of the top six picks will likely be college guys. I wouldn’t rule out Stewart – Dick Tidrow, whose opinion really matters in the Giants’ draft room, saw Stewart’s best outing – but I could see the picks going Mize (1), McClanahan, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India, or something similar to that. Bart could go anywhere from 2 to 9, Madrigal maybe 5-9, Bohm 3-6. Mize is atop just about everyone’s boards, even guys who don’t like the delivery.

Jo-Nathan: Luke Heimlich’s numbers are way down from a year ago; Think any team drafts or signs him? If yes is this something potential teammates will/can deal with (I couldn’t imagine being this guy’s teammate or worse roommate on the road)?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t think so, and I certainly hope not.

Teoscar: I should be playing everyday over Grichuk correct?
Keith Law: I think so.

MittyShorph: Keith, I’ve seen see talk about certain college programs that hurt player’s futures with their abuse of pitchers, odd philosophies, etc. If you were advising a high school senior who could go anywhere and play what programs would you suggest?
Keith Law: I do think the tide is shifting, gradually, as we see programs like Florida and Vanderbilt win with good pitching yet without overusing pitchers in general. They’ve recruited better, and built deep staffs relative to most schools. The reign of the College Coaching Axis of Evil – Graham, Marquess, and the late Garrido – is also coming to an end. But we do still see stupid stuff like UConn blowing out Anthony Kay two years ago. And HS coaches have less accountability. Two days before Mike Vasil walked off the mound holding his elbow, he threw an unscheduled, 20-pitch relief inning. How does that benefit him? It’s not like there were scouts there to see him.

addoeh: Going to Kenosha to scout Kelenic anytime soon?
Keith Law: He plays on a travel team so he’s not necessarily in Kenosha but yes, I’ll go see him in the next 2-3 weeks.

Amy: If Betts and Harper were on the market at the same time, who would receive a bigger contract? Let’s assume both have years like they’re on track for now.
Keith Law: I think Harper. No knock on Betts, though. Both tremendous talents, but Harper has shown he can do even more when he’s healthy.

JJ: I’m assuming this is Jackie Bradley (Junior!)’s last year in Boston — great glove, but he’s a mediocre bat, and about to make the big bucks in arbitration. Who’s better suited for center field in 2019: Benintendi or Betts?
Keith Law: Both can play it. I would guess Betts.

Tommy: Taillon ever be consistent enough to be a true #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, is consistency required to be a #2? I’ll take 22 great starts and 8 bad ones.

Tom: When will we be able to gauge the effect of the humidor in Arizona?
Keith Law: Better question for guys who really work directly with the data, but I’d guess two years?

MikeM: Has Jawuan Harris of Rutgers come up in any of your draft scouting? If so what round in the draft is he likely to go in?
Keith Law: He has not.

Matt : I’ve recently started playing Ticket to Ride. Is there enough variation in game play between the editions (Europe/Africa/etc) to warrant purchasing a new one beyond the NA version?
Keith Law: Europe adds three important rule changes (ferries, stations, and tunnels) without changing the core game. Beyond that, you either get significant rules changes (UK, France, Pennsylvania), or just weird boards (Nordics, Switzerland).
Keith Law: Holy crap Albies just homered again.
Keith Law: Albies had 22 homers in pro ball before this year and has 8 in four weeks.

Chris: Do you think Sheldon Neuse has the athleticism and arm to be a average defensive corner outfielder?
Keith Law: I would not move him off the infield. It would reduce his value too much.

Matt : Wife and I are headed to Houston for the 1st time. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Been a few years for me. I liked Underbelly a lot. Oxheart shows up on a lot of best of the US lists, but you have to get a reservation well in advance.

Tommy: Chances Julio Urias ever becomes a relevant starting pitcher?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher has come all the way back from that surgery. It’s usually a career-ender.

Kevin: Would Matz be better served as a long reliever? Stuff is there but not for long…
Keith Law: I’d like to see him in a swing role. Shoot for 120 or so innings a year. That role needs to come back, for every team, or we’re going to end up with nine-man bullpens.

Thomas: You mentioned in a recent draft blog that there just aren’t many players as small as Madrigal in the majors. Just curious – how does he compare to Nick Allen, who was thought as a first round talent but slipped due to concerns about his size? Do they have comparable skill sets?
Keith Law: Allen can play shortstop, and well, and I think he’s a better runner than Madrigal. Madrigal plays second, even now, but I know several directors & cross-checkers who think he has the best hit tool in this draft.

Mat Ji: Do you have a favorite quick weeknight dinner that you find yourself making often?
Keith Law: A few. There’s a pad thai recipe in Isa Does It!, a vegan cookbook, that I like to make because it comes together fast … but I usually add egg and/or chicken. I’ll eat tofu, but my daughter, who is an adventurous eater in general, doesn’t care for it.

Chris: How should the Cards handle Kelly and Knizner?
Keith Law: Knizner is another reason Kelly needs to play regularly – or be traded in a big package for someone else. Buster threw out the idea, which has a negative percent change of happening, that the Giants should deal Bumgarner. If that were to come true, the Cards should call and offer Kelly and one of their young SP prospects and at least one of their top OF prospects.
Keith Law: And that’s probably not enough but it would fit for both teams.

Adam: Buxton finished really strong last year yet started this year still in the 8 hole. When healthy will he be given teh chance to put that speed to work near the top of the lineup?
Keith Law: I assume 1) when he’s off the DL and 2) starts hitting well, he’ll move up. I doubt this is permanent.

Len: With Atlanta not having a 3rd round pick, how would that impact their approach to their first two picks, if at all?
Keith Law: Shaves some $ off their draft pool and makes it harder for them to target an over-slot guy in the third round anyway. I doubt it’ll be noticeable to the average Braves fan, but it might mean missing out on a prep arm they liked in that 3rd-4th round range.

Mike: I could be wrong but I don’t remember you writing up Franchy Cordero in the past as his recent promotion didn’t ring a bell. What do you think his future holds?
Keith Law: I’ve written him up a few times. Power and athleticism with a poor approach, especially breaking ball recognition. Maybe a great fourth OF type if the approach doesn’t improve. I’m glad he’s at least getting some AB now, though. El Paso wouldn’t prove much for him.

Steve K: Colton Welker the real deal?
Keith Law: I think he can hit some, but Lancaster is an insane hitter’s park and he’s been atrocious on the road this year, so I think the answer, if you’re looking just at his stat line, is no.
Keith Law: This is a Rockies problem – Asheville (low-A), Lancaster (high-A), and Albuquerque (AAA) are all great hitters’ parks. Tough to tell what’s real for hitters and which pitchers are developing despite their environments.

Sean: How much additional noise do you think the bad early season weather has added to the usual small sample size randomness?
Keith Law: I think it’s affected a lot of players, hitters and pitchers, majors and minors. I’ve talked to players and coaches who at least believe it has affected them or their charges. Hard to, say, throw a plus breaking ball if you’re struggling to feel your fingertips.

Matt: Hi Keith, anything you notice on film as a cause for Taillon’s recent struggles? Velocity and strike rate seem fine — is he living in the zone *too much*, possibly?
Keith Law: Three great outings, two bad ones. I don’t see that as any particular cause for concern.

Steve: Yawkey Way getting changed due to less than absolute evidence of racism by Tom Yawkey? Overreaction to a family that has donated 100s of millions to Boston charities?
Keith Law: The Red Sox were the last of the original clubs to integrate. That’s evidence enough, dude. Also, it’s a fucking street name.

Adam: Now that Chief Wahoo is gone, can we shift our attention back to the Braves and start asking questions about the appropriateness of the Padres nickname as well?
Keith Law: Chief Wahoo is not gone, and “asking questions” about the Padres is troll behavior.

Zac: Is Gleyber Torres a 30 homerun guy?
Keith Law: Isn’t everyone?
Keith Law: I think he’s a high-average guy but maybe 15-20 HR power. He can hit – swing, recognition, two-strike approach, it’s all there.

Charlie: Is #1 starter still Newcomb’s ceiling if he continues to throw in the low 90’s? He is walking less but does not have the overpowering fastball.
Keith Law: This tweet aged very poorly in the five minutes since you submitted it. And no, I don’t think Newcomb really has the command or even control for that. I don’t think I ever thought he had #1 ceiling, but could be remembering wrong.

Anthony: I saw Zach Lowther at Aberdeen last year and have been monitoring him at Delmarva. Is he a guy to keep an eye on or will the lack of velocity catch up with him at the higher levels?
Keith Law: Huge extension and spin on the fastball. Hitters don’t see it. Ceiling is limited but he is something.

Joe: Keith, you’ve done a good job of educating your readers about the pitfalls of putting too much stock in short sample sizes. At the same time, early knowledge of whether a player has lost or gained a step can provide strategic advantages. How do you strike the appropriate balance?
Keith Law: That’s what scouting, and now Statcast data, can provide, at least for teams.

Amy: Wait, you think Kelly to SF? And Buster to…1B? With Belt traded?
Keith Law: The Giants are heavy on Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, which would imply a Posey position switch (I can’t believe they would ever trade him). That doesn’t seem to leave a place for Belt, does it?

Ryan Backster : Freddy Peralta. Still meh on him?
Keith Law: Meh is strong. Doesn’t have a big ceiling. Pitching *very* well in AAA, two good home starts in unfriendly Colorado Springs, which I like to see, at least.

Steve: Odds Vladdy Jr is up this year?
Keith Law: I may have said this before, but strongly believe he will debut in Toronto this year. I’d put money on that.

Jesus Sanchez: Am I the top prospect in the Rays system at the end of the year and am I the top OF prospect in baseball as well?
Keith Law: Maybe, and no.

Robbie: Keith how do you reconcile wanting to be right coinciding with certain players failing? I don’t think you would ever necessarily want players to fail, but you are where you are because you are good at evaluating players and I’m sure you want to be right more than not.
Keith Law: I don’t root against players. I may joke about it a little but I can’t do that. Any prospect, no matter who it is, is a kid pursuing his dream. What kind of evil SOB would root against that?

Mike B: Have you seen anything in Corey Ray’s start that makes you think he’s turning a corner this year? I’ve heard he finally had a healthy offseason which may lead to better results.
Keith Law: He’s 2 for his last 30 and has a .301 OBP on the year. Yes, SSS, but he hasn’t turned a corner.

Mac: Have Madrigal and Kelenic moved up draft boards simply by not playing? How much recency bias occurs at the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve joked about that – the best thing to do this spring has been to not play. Kelenic is playing now, though; his standing may be a function of last summer/fall, though, since the pitching he’s seeing this spring is not good.
Keith Law: Acuna is getting all the hits, BTW.

Carlton: What was your initial projection for Degrom? Looking through your old ranks and don’t see him anywhere.
Keith Law: He made my Mets top 10 one year before he debuted. At some point after that he went from a four-seamer to whatever he calls it now, with more life/sink than it ever had befoer.
Keith Law: I never saw him before his debut, which I saw on TV while in Bristol.

parlay: Hunter Harvey ceiling?
Keith Law: If healthy, #1 starter. Has not stayed healthy, and I don’t love the cross-body delivery.
Keith Law: That was foul? (referring to Dansby)

Jax : Not just basing this on his hot start but Grandal getting a Russell Martin type of contract next winter seems likely, yes? Or do you think he would get even more?
Keith Law: I think less, as he’s not the kind of defensive catcher teams seem to favor right now.

Joey: How different is Lewis Brinson now compared to Michael A taylor back when he broke into MLB?
Keith Law: Brinson’s got more whip in his swing and I think both more raw power and a better chance to hit for a decent average.

Joe : Any new names connected with the Braves in the draft? Could Vasil with their second pick be a possibility after his injury?
Keith Law: That’s a situation where them losing the money associated with pick 3 might hurt them. It’ll be hard to go over in the second round. I also think vasil, even hurt, could go before that.

Ryan: What is Cavan Biggio’s ceiling? Can he be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Doubtful.

Justin R: Are no-hitters any real measure of skill? Or largely fluky?
Keith Law: Fluky. Super fun, but not meaningful.

Josh: Tyler Austin and Mac Williamson are two bats that have caught my eye lately. Do you feel they are legit and will be mainstay contributors for the next several years?
Keith Law: Likely no for both.

Michael: Given Josh Hader’s dominance as a reliever, should the Brewers even consider giving him a chance to start in the future?
Keith Law: I think this is the right role for him. He might be OK as a starter but not dominant like he has been/will be in relief.

Ben: Keith, have you played Dead of Winter,
Keith Law: I have not.

Ron: Gleyber is long term 2nd baseman in majors?
Keith Law: He can play shortstop. But they have Honus Wagner over there right now so second base seems fine.

Jon: Given the increase in strikeout rates in current baseball, do you still enjoy baseball as much as earlier in your life?
Keith Law: I consume baseball so differently now that it’s not a fair comparison. I do not think the high-K/high-HR environment is as aesthetically pleasing a product, though. Stolen bases are fun, dammit.

Ben: I’m fascinated by the scouting miss on Aaron Judge even as he got to the upper levels of the minors. Do you think this has changed anything in the scouting world? And what present grades would you put on Judge now?
Keith Law: Whose miss? He was in my top 40 for 3 straight years, I think.

Dd: If/when the Orioles decide to cash out, should Bundy be made available? if yes, would he bring much in return considering health concerns?
Keith Law: They should try it, but I expect him to fetch maybe 50 cents on the dollar because of health concerns, esp around the shoulder.

Nick: Excited that you’re coming to Politics and Prose in DC. Are there any pet peeves to avoid when meeting you and making a book signing request ?
Keith Law: As long as you respect the time of others in line, no, not at all. I’m happy to chat, sign, take a picture, answer your questions, or take your restaurant advice.

Brett: I remember you talking about Taijuan Walker’s delivery and how you were not a fan of his change in delivery to more upright. Any chance that led to TJ?
Keith Law: It’s possible but there was a long lag in between. Tyler Skaggs did the same, but he blew out within a year.

Adam: Dansby just got screwed because of a bad call followed by lack of camera angles
Keith Law: I legit don’t understand how that could have been foul.

Ben: Not a question, but if you haven’t been to Vedge in Philadelphia you should try it at some point. It’s too expensive, but by far best vegan food I’ve ever had. Really amazing cookery.
Keith Law: I haven’t been but would love to try it at some point.

Bud Smith: Fluky? How dare you undermine my no-hitter! Nerd.
Keith Law: Jose Jimenez on line two for you, Mr. Smith.

GIO: Dustin Pedroia was another super small college infielder that some thought was too small for pro ball. How does Madrigal compare to him coming out of college? Similar skill sets?
Keith Law: That’s a bit of revisionism. Pedroia was a shortstop who couldn’t stay there, and who swung uphill to an extent that very few big leaguers then or now do. His size didn’t help him. He was also a 40 runner, and that didn’t help him. Hell, he was balding at 21, which probably didn’t help him. I never saw him as an amateur, but I know our scouts in Toronto were lukewarm, and we had him more in the fourth round than second (where Boston took him). Madrigal is tiny – he’s listed at 5’7″ and around my weight, which, well, look at me and tell me if I look like a big leaguer – but he’s not that unconventional.
Keith Law: OK, that seems like a great question to wrap this up. Thanks as always for reading & for your questions. I am tentatively planning a mock draft for Thursday, since we’re only about five weeks out, and will try to chat around that even if I’m traveling. Enjoy your weekends and Acuña Matata!

My updated ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: All kinds of mind distortion. Klawchat.

NV: Hello Keith, where in your current top 100 prospect list would you slot Bohm & Madrigal? Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t like ranking guys until they’ve played somewhere in pro ball; before then, I tend to be very conservative with rankings, because we have no performance data and pro scouts haven’t seen them. I don’t think either guy would be a top 50 prospect in the pros right now. Madrigal suffers from a terrible lack of comparably-sized players in the majors.

chito: Who would be the better player 5 years from now…albies or swanson?
Keith Law: Probably Swanson, as the sure shortstop. Both are good. I haven’t heard from Atlanta fans who were killing Swanson last fall lately.

Brady: I know it’s been only 4 starts, but Jose Berrios has been absolutely filthy so far. Is it likely he’s taken the next step and will be the #1 type starter the Twins have been looking for since Johan left?
Keith Law: His stuff doesn’t seem to be any different; he’s had an extraordinary rate of generating popups, which can be a skill (but maybe not to that extreme), and of keeping flyballs in the park, which is sometimes a skill but rarely. So I think there’s some regression coming here.

Tony: Hey Keith, I’m someone who wishes they read more but truthfully barely reads. Currently, I’m thinking through how to best build it as a part of my routine. How many days and for roughly how long would you suggest in read per week? Thanks
Keith Law: I read every day, at least an hour. That is probably too extreme for most people, but I greatly enjoy reading and it works for me like meditation (keeping me focused and present). Find material you like, and see how long you can read without feeling distracted or like you want to run screaming into the street.

Kruker: Hey Keith…always appreciate your thoughts on prospects. Have you seen Blake Rutherford hit this year in person? Stats read well so far – 7 2Bs and a decent SLG. But he had issues last season making consistent hard contact. Can you project him as an MLBer or think of an MLB comp for him?
Keith Law: It’s ten games.

Brian J: Big 2, or SSS? BOS/HOU: 27 – 9. NYY/CLE/WAS/CHC/LA: 41-42
Keith Law: SSS.

Kruker: Is Teoscar’s surge just a fling? Also, what do you think of the name Teoscar for a baby
Keith Law: It’s 20 PA. But Teoscar was on my preseason breakout candidates list, so I was already optimistic about him producing more this year.

fhqwgads: Can someone from the A’s please get a clip of Homestar Runner saying: “Matt Olson… or Matt Chapman?”
Keith Law: That works shockingly well. #cerebellum’d

Saul: I know it’s a sss, but Reggie Lawson seems to be pitching well @Lake Elsinore- lower walk totals. Still an under the radar prospect for SD?
Keith Law: Never under the radar – he was a potential first rounder after his junior year & summer, and I wrote about a month ago about how good he looked in spring training.

Sam: Of the three current NL division leaders (Mets, Pirates, D-Backs), which do you think is most likely to win their division?
Keith Law: If you give me odds on four choices – Mets, Pirates, Dbacks, or none – I would still bet on ‘none.’ But I would bet at least one of those four teams makes the playoffs.

Ben: It’s only 4 starts, but when someone like Gerrit Cole switches teams and immediately becomes better than he ever has been, do we assume the new team knows something the old team didn’t? In your experience, do teams target players that they believe other teams aren’t using properly and/or they can quickly make better. I.e. a mechanical change
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly what happened here. It seems like the Astros told him, you’re not a groundball pitcher, stop throwing two-seamers, just attack with four-seamers up and sliders down. His flyball rate has soared, but so have a bunch of positive indicators, even without a real change in stuff quality.

Jim: How close were the W-S Dash to making your most stacked minor league team list? It would have helped to have Burger and Robert on the opening day roster, but if Rutherford and Basabe bounce back, and Adolfo continues to improve they might have 3 OFs who play in the majors.
Keith Law: Not close at all.

Ricardo: What was Price doing wrong as Reds manager?
Keith Law: He’s definitely the reason the pitching staff had a 5+ ERA and the offense has a sub-.300 OBP. It’s totally him.

addoeh: If the Marlins are going to claim they are a British Virgin Islands company to avoid paying the city of Miami money they are owed, shouldn’t they also play a few games there?
Keith Law: I’m volunteering to cover that series.
Keith Law: Also, I love that Marlins Man flew there and found their “office” is just one of those stores where you rent a mailbox.

PJ: The Reds are focused on developing players, not winning games. What players have developed on Price’s watch? Obviously not all on the mgr, but Hamilton, Peraza, Stephenson, Lorenzen, DeScalfani… nada. Iglesias as SP didn’t get a chance. As a Reds fan, I’m 100% ok with the firing. I think you should be too.
Keith Law: Iglesias couldn’t start. Who among those players you listed should have been much better? Stephenson, yes, but he started to run into trouble in AAA, before Price ever touched him. Lorenzen was never going to be a starter. Hamilton has always had trouble making decent contact – but he has become an elite CF under Price. (I’m not giving Price credit there, but it happened.) DeSclafani gave them 300 above-average innings before he got hurt. Winker only has about 60 big league games, but he’s done well on the whole. Suarez came over and turned into a great player. I am not seeing this track record of failed development that you are. And, again, there is nothing true today about Price’s tenure that was not also true on November 1st, when the Reds could have gone out there and hired the best available manager on the market.

Dante: Anthony Rizzo thinks there are too many games in the MLB season. There is no way the league lowers the number of games any time soon, right?
Keith Law: Games are money. If the union fights for a shorter schedule, MLB will insist on steering less money to players. That is not a tradeoff the union should make right now.

Dave: I know that you hold no illusions about the reality of climate change. I was just curious if you have looked into solar panels at your place of residence or an electric car and why/why not you have gone that route. Just interested in your perspective. Thanks.
Keith Law: I have driven a hybrid for years now. I have looked at solar panels, but the up front cash outlay has deterred me – among other things, I have a daughter who’s a few years from college.

Sally fan: The Delmarva Shorebirds have an incredibly strong rotation. But for the higher round college arms (and Bishop) what’s to be gained by keeping them at lo A? Shouldn’t a high round college arm be expected to start at Hi A?
Keith Law: Bishop didn’t pitch at all last spring in college, which is part of why he’s an Oriole today. Lowther could probably have started with Frederick, but the Keys have a couple of guys in their rotation now who are on that starter/reliever bubble and I assume the O’s were giving them that last shot before replacing them. I’d be surprised if the Shorebirds still have this rotation on June 1st.

PJ: Shane Bieber… 20 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 23 K’s. Are the scouting reports as strong as the results? If nothing else, I have to think he’s ready for AAA. Right?
Keith Law: Ready for AAA, yes. It’s not great stuff, it’s a lot of average, with ++ control.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : At what point does a slow/bad start get concerning? If Lutz and Jhailyn Ortiz (for example) are still struggling to make contact in 25 games, is concern valid? 50 games?
Keith Law: Both play at 19 this year; Ortiz won’t turn 20 until November. So I’d say no number of games will concern me with those two. And it is fucking FREEZING in the northeast and upper midwest.

Andrew: Buddy Reed is in fuego. Which of these three prospects ends up contributing the most for the Padres? Buddy Reed, Franchy Cordero, or Michael Gettys?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed is a 23-year-old in high-A in a great hitters’ environment. Cordero is the only one of those three I’d call a prospect.

Frank: What’s STL going to do with all the outfield surplus? Feels like Bader and Oneil deserve an everyday job somewhere. What do you think?
Keith Law: There has to be a trade at some point. They’re going to have a need – rotation, I’d guess – and they have the parts to go get pretty much anyone.

Nate (in Seattle): Klaw, thanks for the mlb draft primer. Wondering what you take on Corey Ray’s start. Is it SSS or living up to previous promise?
Keith Law: I know he’s gone back to a small stride/tap to get his weight transferred again, so that’s a big positive; I thought that was the #1 difference from college when I saw him last year. Curiosity in his stats: In the first four games of the season, all vs montgomery, he punched out 10 times and went 4 for 18. Since then in ten games, he’s punched out just 5 times, and is hitting .410/.425/.667.

Rob: Kohl Stewart has put up K numbers in his first two starts that he hasn’t shown in pro ball yet. Being left available for the Rule 5 and being passed over by everyone light a fire, or some sort of adjustment?
Keith Law: Or he faced an atrocious Birmingham lineup and struck out 9 guys in 5 innings because they’re terrible.
Keith Law: I mean, here’s . Courtney Hawkins and Keon Barnum each had the golden sombrero.

Dante: I’ve heard Nick Madrigal is being considered by the Phillies. Does he remind you at all of Scott Kingery based on his tools? Any word on his makeup?
Keith Law: Madrigal is in the mix for a bunch of teams up top – I don’t think he’d get past the A’s – and the Phillies are sort of on everyone except Swaggerty (can’t do yet another CF, right?). Kingery is substantially stronger than Madrigal.

Chris: Would cutting Reyes and bringing up Cecchini or Guillorme be worse for their individual development? Or is there not much left to prove for those guys?
Keith Law: Cutting Reyes makes the team better AND opens a spot for someone younger. Guillorme would also give them an elite defender at short for when Rosario doesn’t play.

Kevin: Thanks for the rankings, Keith. Curious if you heard what the White Sox are thinking at 4? Best player, arm, bat? What would you do if you were in their position with the stable of young arms and outfielders they already have in the minors?
Keith Law: Other than a few random connections – A’s with Bart, Reds with Singer, Mariners with Xavier Edwards – there isn’t much out there because no one really knows what teams up top, including Detroit, are doing, and because players/advisers mostly haven’t put bonus expectations out there. I don’t believe the White Sox would take a prep arm at 4, though. My answer for what I would do for every team is best player available, always and forever, amen.

Bucs666: Mr. Law, how signable is Kumar Rocker. I know that he is committed to Vanderbilt, but I was hoping that the Pirates would have a shot at him. Thank you.
Keith Law: I believe he is signable where he’s going to be drafted.

Craig: Scouting question. Brent Suter has shown that he is at least a mediocre MLB pitcher and possibly more. He doesn’t throw hard and none of his pitches are amazing, he just mixes and matches pretty effectively. He was a college senior draftee and I am pretty sure that guys like him are a dime/dozen and most top out around AA. When scouting a guy like him in college, is there anything you can look for to see a future major leaguer or is it just pretty much luck?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s all luck, but he’s a lefty throwing in the mid 80s with some deception and good control. Those guys are a dime a dozen, because they tend not to pitch very well in the majors (and I don’t think Suter is anything more than an up-and-down guy).

Jed: Has the quality of this year’s draft diminished in your mind after seeing most of the top guys fail to meet what was expected of them coming into the spring?
Keith Law: I think it is as deep as I thought in February, but the top ten is worse than I thought it would be.

Andy: I watched the Red Sox- Yankees fight. The commisioner should know that fighting on the field is a HUGE delay. If you want to speed up the game, suspend anyone who charges the mound 25 games. Managers who argue calls after replay? 10 game suspension. Those are pace of play things that I can get behind.
Keith Law: And the guys running in from the bullpen like the Kool-Aid guy? Come on. I agree – baseball fights are stupid, and when one happens at a game where I’m in the stands, that’s generally when I pull a book out of my bag, because I’ll probably get a chapter or so in before they’re done.

Garrett: Keith you mentioned in a write up at the end of Spring Training that Austin Riley might have a grade higher of power than you previously thought. Have you seen/heard anything else to change your opinion on his other tools? I know you have had questions about his bat speed in the past
Keith Law: Still do. I doubt the .500 BABIP is going to last. He has really done a great job with his body, though – if he’d looked like this in high school, he probably would have slipped into the first round as a two-way guy who showed more athleticism. (Not relevant now, but I wonder if he would have been a better prospect on the mound too with this physique.) He deserves a lot of credit for transforming his body like he has.

Joe: Keith, I saw the Tampa Yankees in Fort Myers last week. Two guys caught my eye, Jonathan Loaisiga and Isiah Gilliam. You have written about Loaisia before, but what kind of prospect is Gilliam?
Keith Law: Tools guy who never hit, not really even in HS. 36% K rate so far this year.

Joe: Keith, could Nick Decker out of New Jersey be a day one pick?
Keith Law: I expect that he will.

Marc: Is Kopech ready for the show or do they need to give him a couple more months to refine command?
Keith Law: I may have answered this two weeks ago – I think his stuff is ready, and he’ll miss a lot of bats, but walk more guys than you’d like, and that’s part of his development.

Kevin: How far from the big leagues is Casey Mize?
Keith Law: If healthy, and we assume he doesn’t pitch at all this summer, I’d say by the All-Star Break next year.

Scott: Mac Williamson changed his swing with the help of Justin Turner’s swing coach. He hit well in spring training and is on fire in AAA so far. Do you think he can be a solid regular in the majors?
Keith Law: I think a fringe regular – bat speed has never been very good, always a power over hit type, with some athleticism and the ability to play that difficult RF in San Francisco.

Lilith: Are teams drafting in the top 5 going to be more cautious about drafting Madrigal because of his injury?
Keith Law: Doesn’t sound like it. He may be moving up relative to other college bats because so many of them are underperforming while he’s out.

Matt: How excited should Phillies fans be about the foursome of Sixto/JoJo/Ranger/Adonis? Because the names alone are enough to make me dizzy.
Keith Law: I saw a bad Ranger start, although it was 40 degrees at first pitch. I’m hoping to see him again on Saturday vs New Hampshire. Anyway, yeah, that’s a good group. Kilome belongs in the same discussion.

Jacob: What kind of tools does Jarred Kelenic possess? I am trying to understand what kind of upside he could have and having difficulty.
Keith Law: So is everyone else, since he’s played something like two games outdoors so far. I don’t believe he has any 70 tools, but it’s a lot of above average – hit, field, throw, run – and the potential for above-average power.

Marc: Given the current prospect mix for the White Sox, what area would you target at #4?
Keith Law: Best. Player. Available.
Keith Law: You don’t draft based on what you have, unless you really, really want to be unemployed. You take the best guy out there and figure out the fit later.

Tommy: How long until we see Juan Soto somewhere other than Hagerstown? This guy rakes.
Keith Law: He only played about a month there last year. I’m assuming he’ll be out of there by their All-Star Break.

Aaron’s Greenies: Griffin Canning aggressively moved to AA which was expected, but a bit surprising to see Jose Suarez (at 20) moved to AA as well – anything more than a 4/5 for Suarez?
Keith Law: I think Suarez might be more like a mid-rotation guy.

Rick C: Do you think it’s reasonable for the Braves to hold Acuna down until he’s hitting a little better?
Keith Law: I do. He’s been swinging out of his ass lately.

NB: Were you involved with the ESPN 1-100 player rankings? Always a tough thing to nail, obviously, and perhaps it’s recency bias considering his torrid start, but Mookie Betts at 17 seems… low.
Keith Law: I was not.

Mike: If you had to guess, do you think Jordyn Adams will sign or will he end up at Carolina?
Keith Law: Carolina. My understanding from scouts is that he is committed to football. And there is no way I’m paying him seven figures to go get his brains scrambled every fall and spring.

JR: Vegas resident. Any local draft prospects worth checking out for this years draft?
Keith Law: Isbel at UNLV.

Kevin: Buy or sell: MLB isn’t serious about fixing length of game issues until they force hitters to keep one foot in the box between pitches.
Keith Law: Soft buy. That’s an issue, but not the main one (commercial breaks).

Wahoo: Keith, I have great respect for your opinions, even if I might not agree with every one (I am in outspoken agreement on the importance of vaccines!). I had a respectful chat-disagreement with Kiley M. a week ago as he made it clear thinks programs like UVA and Fullerton do their kids a disservice by the way they play/coach — suggesting that he isn’t sure why truly good prospects would even go to those programs. He also made reference to UVA pitching, something I know you have commented on as well. I am a big UVA guy, but I would like to think I can look at things objectively. I know there have been injuries and “questions” about mechanics. Fair share of small ball as well. However, is there truly evidence that warrants this kind of criticism? UVA has not only built a respectful program – they have sent their share of players to the MLB including high draft picks. Certainly some pitcher injuries, but where is this not happening?
Keith Law: The track record of their pitchers in pro ball is awful, and it’s because they force every pitcher to pitch with ‘their’ mechanics. For all their success and high picks, the most WAR any UVA pitcher draftee has accumulated in the majors is 8.1 … by Javier Lopez. Teams have spent a lot of money and high picks on UVA pitchers for naught, and we are way past calling it a coincidence or saying this happens at all programs (hint: it doesn’t).

Sriram: Here’s what I don’t get. The Reds are rebuilding. So you know they will lose a lot. It doesn’t make sense to grade Price on that. So then Price has non-winning metrics (player development progress, whatever). How do you get any read on THAT from 16 games?
Keith Law: You don’t. They didn’t. This was a “DO SOMETHING!!!!?!?!?!!” move.

Roger: Is Taylor Clarke close enough that Arizona should bring him up in place of Walker? Can Braden Shipley still be a viable starter?
Keith Law: I am not sure in which piece this was – impact prospects? – but I think I said Clarke was ready and would probably end up with 20 starts or so this year. Walker’s injury might be the opening. I don’t see how you can start Shipley unless he’s regained his lost velocity.

Andrew: I read a story about the A’s maybe moving to Portland. The story also said expansion could bring a team to Portland. Is expansion a good idea considering how many teams feel the need to tank in a desperate attempt to acquire talent? Or is the size of the league not a problem related to tanking?
Keith Law: I don’t think tanking is about # of teams, but about the current CBA. I do worry about getting enough pitchers to fill two more rosters since everyone insists on carrying umpteen relievers.

Brett: I thought for sure you were going to be Michael Cohen’s third client. Was sure of it.
Keith Law: I pulled his ear close to my lips and whispered, “Privilege.” So I’m good.

Joe : Any players being connected to the Braves yet in the draft?
Keith Law: I heard them with Vasil. Again, this is all very early, speculative stuff, and something random could happen and suddenly Carter Stewart is staring at them at pick 8 and they change their plan.

Draft guru: Top high school players who have a shot to be top 40 picks out of the North East for ’18 draft?
Keith Law: I just put up that draft top 50 today.

Gabriel: Is it too early for a mock draft?
Keith Law: Yes. It would be farcical.

Joe : Have you heard of the Braves hiring any international scouts after the basically fired their whole department this winter?
Keith Law: No, they can’t really sign anyone signifcant anyway, and Anthopoulos came in so late that restocking the department would have been difficult. I expect that will all happen later this summer.

JSC: Do you have any recommendations for sci-fi or high fantasy fiction series you have read?
Keith Law: The Magicians, by Lev Grossman. The NK Jemisin Broken Earth series is good, although I haven’t cracked The Stone Sky yet.

Jesse: Any rumors on who the mets might be on in the draft?
Keith Law: Today I would bet college bat.

Adam: Is there a chance that maybe, just maybe, the Padres are rushing Tatis Jr? His very slow start at AA seems to indicate that.
Keith Law: Or it’s April 19th.

Jacob: Joey Bart seems to be raking in terms of avg and power. Does his hit tool make the 50-55 grade and could his ability to call games combined with his tools mean he could be a fast riser through the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has an average hit tool. He’s the best catching prospect in the class by a mile, though, so he’s going to go off the board pretty early, and I would guess he’s a two years to the majors guy.

Skip Donahue: Which of the pitchers down at Delmarva is most likely to help Baltimore the soonest – Baumann, Lowther, Dietz, Hall, Bishop, Hanifee?
Keith Law: Baumann might be the closest, but none of those guys is close.

Eric: Have you heard much about Jeren Kendall this year? Does he have an improved swing?
Keith Law: I’ve heard nothing good about him this year, and he’s struck out in 43% of his PA, so there you go.

Ryan: Which of the big Vanderbilt commits do you think have a decent (>30 percent) chance of coming to campus?
Keith Law: Austin Becker seems most likely. I don’t know what Hankins’ actual injury is at this point, but I could see him choosing Vandy over taking a fraction of the bonus he might have expected with a healthy spring.

Sriram: Obviously the Red Sox aren’t going to keep this pace up or this level of run prevention going. But it’s not unreasonable to think this version of Betts and Devers can’t hold up to some degree, no?
Keith Law: I agree. Also seemed like Bogaerts was making hard contact again now that his hand is healed.

Alex: just a heads up – Bottega Americano in your San Diego eating guide closed
Keith Law: That’s a shame. Looks like it just closed two months ago.

Ed: To an untrained amateur (me), Brendon Little appears to have similar tools to Jose Quintana. Where am I wrong, and how wrong am I? Thanks Keith!
Keith Law: I don’t see that at all.

Slick Rick Hahn: Thanks for the memories Courtney Hawkins. With his official release, what do you think of the Sox basically doing a 180 on draft strategy since drafting him, targeting colllege performers with good bat to ball and plate discipline? I know people liked Hawkins at the time, are they limiting themselves too much by avoiding toolsy high schoolers?
Keith Law: He is the best example I can think of in the last decade of a team screwing up a player’s development with a too-aggressive promotion. He was a raw HS hitter whom they sent to high-A in his first full pro year, at age 19. The disaster never ended.

Jacob: What is the issues going on with Nander De Sedas? Is he looking like a 2nd or 3rd rounder now?
Keith Law: Hasn’t hit. Second round perhaps on name value.

Todd: Brad Hand to the Indians for Shane Bieber, Nolan Jones and Wil Benson. Who says no?
Keith Law: Padres fan, eh?

Matty: What do you think a good season would look like for Braxton Garrett?
Keith Law: Get him healthy with his old velocity back. Don’t worry about results until next year.

JSC: Favorite Caribbean Island to vacation to?
Keith Law: My sample size is small, but Aruba couldn’t have been any nicer or easier.

Jacob: Jose Suarez looked fairly decent in his AA debut at age 20. Does his uptick in velo give him the tools to be a top 100 guy this year?
Keith Law: Uptick? Don’t think that’s the case. I saw him in March and was bullish on him thanks to the deception & plus changeup.

Matt: Which is closer to reality — Cora has changed team culture pushing all the right buttons OR Farrell was a drag on the clubhouse morale to the detriment of team performance(though they did win 93 games).
Keith Law: Or it’s 17 games and they’re largely healthy.

Paul: I believe you said you saw Brandon Nimmo as a 4th outfielder. Is his strong start (and strong finish last year) enough of a sample to indicate there might be something more there?
Keith Law: He has 27 PA this year, all but one against RHP. If he can’t hit lefties, which has been true in the past, he’s not a regular.

Brian: When was the last time we saw a rotation as good as the Astros this season?
Keith Law: The Nats have rolled Scherzer/Strasburg out there for several years, with assorted pretty good pitchers behind them.

Jeff: Does Heimlich get drafted this year? Seems like he’s not pitching as well now which may give teams an easy out.
Keith Law: I asked around about him, if scouts/execs thought someone would do it, and most people said “yes.” (not that THEY would take him, but that some team would.) I still think no – no one will want that PR backlash.

Nick: When will you be doing your first mock draft?
Keith Law: 3-4 weeks before the draft itself.

Gregg: Heyman floated the idea of a Conforto for Realmuto trade today. Does that make any sense? If not, what’s a realistic Realmuto-Mets trade look like? Thanks!
Keith Law: That would not make sense for the Mets.

Drew: I am curious as to why Hoskins didn’t really appear on any top 100 lists during his time in the minors. What did scouts miss with him?
Keith Law: First baseman who was held back in low-A his first year, and played in a very favorable HR park in AA. I liked him, thought he could be Goldschmidt Lite.

TK: Just want to say thanks for your weekly “Stick to Baseball” links. They’re always informative, and even clued me in to the Fireball Island Kickstarter. I played that with my brothers all the time as a kid and recently backed them. I can’t wait to play the new version with them.
Keith Law: I don’t remember that game at all, but I did play Stop Thief, one of Restoration Games’ earlier re-Issues, all the time.

Zac: Is the service time manipulation unfixable or will the owners use this as the ultimate bargaining chip to screw over the MLBPA is the next labor bargaining?
Keith Law: Whatever rules the CBA sets, teams will quickly find the best way to take advantage of them.

Gilbert: Greyson Jenista did not make you updated top 50. What do you see that is keeping him from making that list?
Keith Law: He’s not very good.

David: Does Peter Alonso overtake Dom Smith as the Mets future at 1B ? Or are they both trade bait for a catcher?
Keith Law: If I’m Smith, I’m showing up early every damn day, because Alonso is legit. He can really hit and he’s showing more power than he did as an underclassman.

Jason: Thanks for the chat. I’ve seen Kelenic mentioned as a possibility for the Tigers first overall. How bad would Mize’s medical have to be for the Tigers to turn in another direction?
Keith Law: A cold weather HS bat first overall, a kid who’ll play just a handful of games outside all spring … I can’t say it’s wrong, because maybe Kelenic is the next coming of Mike Trout, but whoa boy is that a risk I could not stomach.

JP: take on the Pitching Ninja .gif controversy? MLB has been overly protective of their media rights forever, but in their defense they built up a huge media business by being that way.
Keith Law: Would love to see them work more with people like Rob on GIFs, which I don’t think negatively impact the market for MLB’s product *or* damage the MLB brand in any way at all, while continuing to enforce their rights on longer videos of game action, which do.

Justin R: How do you find new, good books to read? Best seller lists tend to be a lot of airplane-read potboilers.
Keith Law: Lot of reader & friend recommendations, bookstore browsing, often asking (indie) bookstore employees what they’ve liked. Sometimes I just pick up a book because the cover speaks to me and the description sounds interesting.

Dave: Dont know if you caught the articke about Armor Field in Chicago, but when will MLB teams realize smaller stadiums may be the way to go?
Keith Law: That was in my Saturday links post. Great work by Dayn there. Smaller parks don’t bring in more revenue.

Archie: Is your ranking of Madrigal a reflection of his potential to be a solid big leaguer, or because so many of the other top guys have gone backward?
Keith Law: More the latter. He’s still a tiny college 2b who’ll probably never have power.

Chris: Did you like Soundgarden at all?
Keith Law: Loved them.

Daniel: Is Acu?a ready ? Was he ready in Spring Training ?
Keith Law: He was ready, but like I said above, he’s trying to hit everything 500 feet right now.

Jeff: Likelihood that Lucchesi has a better MLB career than Quantrill?
Keith Law: Not crazy. Might be 40%.

Peter: Worried at all about Marcus Stroman? I know SSS, but concern is always there for me with a guy with that small of a frame.
Keith Law: He’s short but he ain’t small.

Peter: Is Zack Godley for real?
Keith Law: That CB is a knockout. As long as he has that, he’s for real.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thanks for all of the questions, as always, and for reading. I’ll have a draft post up in the next few days on Cole Wilcox (who was excellent on Tuesday night) and Carter Stewart (whose stuff was down last night, although the CB is still ridiculous) and a few more day one names. Enjoy your weekends!