Big Chicken.

Antibiotic resistance doesn’t get a ton of headlines, but it is one of the most critical threats to global health, enough so that the United Nations resolved to address the problem at a summit late in 2016. At the time, they estimated there would be 10 million deaths annually from resistant ‘superbugs’ by the year 2050, which doesn’t include people who would die indirectly from the scourge, such as people who can’t have surgery because the antibiotics that you receive before any operation are no longer effective. In a country where a third of the population rejects the truth of evolution, getting people to understand this issue – itself the product of evolutionary processes among bacteria – has been difficult, and never seems to rise very high on the priority lists for policymakers.

Maryn McKenna’s new book Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats, the journalist and Schuster Institute fellow explains how we got here by way of the humble chicken, which took over our plates and menus thanks to the prodigious and reckless use of antibiotics, in turn leading to widespread antibiotic resistance in our food supply and outside of it as well. Chicken became an industrial product because someone realized that pumping birds full of antibiotics as part of their feed would make them grow faster, regardless of whether they had any need for these medications. While the chicken world consolidated and counted its profits, bacteria did what they do – evolved, through mutations and gene transfer, to become resist to one drug after another, spreading through and beyond our food supply, abetted by antibiotic residues that washed into the water supply from overuse.

McKenna builds the book around the narrative of one man who nearly died from salmonellosis, an infection caused by bacteria in the Salmonella genus (there are two species, and either can cause this illness), part of a widespread 2013 outbreak caused by unsanitary conditions at the Foster Farms chicken processing plant. The specific Salmonella strain in this outbreak, known as Heidelberg, was resistant to multiple antibiotics, sickened over 600 people, and resulted in at least 200 hospitalizations, although there were no reported deaths. Within the framework of this patient’s ordeal – he survived, but will have lifelong complications, which is common for people who develop these infections – McKenna walks through the history of the chicken as foodstuff, from its advent as an industrial product through changes to the bird to the very recent movement by major chicken producers and consumers to stop antibiotic use.

The very rise of this form of industrialized animal husbandry was an accident, which is one of the book’s most interesting sections (granted, I love history of science stories); there wasn’t any reason to think pumping healthy birds full of antibiotics would make them grow faster, but it did, to a shocking extent. What is infuriating, if not entirely surprising, is how government agencies responsible for ensuring public health rolled over and played dead for Big Chicken and the antibiotic manufacturers themselves even as scientists began to sound alarms about resistant bacteria in the 1950s. The manufacturers played the Big Tobacco game of demanding more proof, aided and abetted by Congressman Jamie Whitten, a Democrat from Mississippi, who abused his power to protect the two industries from proposed restrictions on antibiotic usage until his retirement in 1994. (Whitten wrote a pro-pesticide screed as a rejoinder to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, in case you were unclear on his stance on the matter.) Mckenna parallels this narrative with a walk through the tactics of the bacterial world to outflank our best drugs, most recently with the emergence of bacteria with the mcr-1 gene, conferring resistance to colistin, an antibiotic of ‘last resort’ that has been used for bacteria resistant to all other antibiotics.

Blaming the two industries of chicken and pharma, along with the complicity of useless government agencies (the FDA and the USDA), is easy, but the American consumer is also a major part of the problem here. We eat far more meat than we need to meet our dietary requirements, but we insist on meat being cheap, which encourages us to both eat and waste more of it. We’ve also decided we want lean meat, based on nutritional advice from the Useless Department of Agriculture that turned out to be mostly to entirely wrong, leading to greater demand for breast meat, and in turn for farmers to grow chickens with giant breasts and smaller legs, to the point that the broiler-fryer chickens you might get in an average grocery or warehouse store can’t walk or stand up normally. (I rarely see them in stores, but once did buy a pasture-raised whole chicken; it had less than half the breast meat of even a well-raised conventional bird.) McKenna goes into this in more detail – how the rise of ‘chicken fingers’ and the McNugget exacerbated this trend, how consumers prefer buying chicken parts rather than whole birds – while also pointing out how producers bred birds with these un-natural characteristics to suit the marketplace.

There is hope, at least in this book, on both the antibiotic resistance and the chicken-producing fronts. The UN has, at least, paid lip service to the cause of fighting antibiotic resistance. Several major chicken producers, led by Purdue, have stopped or pledged to stop using antibiotics in full, or to only use them to treat sick birds rather than as growth promoters or for prophylactic purposes. Many large chicken buyers, including Panera, Chipotle, and even McDonald’s, have also pledged to go antibiotic-free, or have done so already. Whole Foods has long been antibiotic-free as well. (One reason I buy organic milk and eggs, even though ‘organic’ itself isn’t that meaningful: It guarantees the cows/birds in question weren’t given antibiotics.) And slowing the use of antibiotics on animals should help in particular if and when researchers discover the next big class of antibiotic compounds. We may have gotten much farther with the drugs we had if we hadn’t given them in such huge quantities to the animals we raised and ate.

McKenna also visits chicken farmers who are operating outside of the main supply chain of industrial birds, raising heirloom varieties in the American heartland or raising certified Label Rouge birds in France, chickens that neither look nor taste like the bland if predictable American hybrids. Educating consumers with the disposable income to buy these birds is a challenge, but one that has plenty of precedent in the market for high-end foods. The bigger conundrum is how to provide enough meat, chicken or otherwise, to feed a world that increasingly demands it and doesn’t want to pay more for it, without the overuse of antibiotics that has led us to the edge of a bottomless pit of resistance.

Next up: Dan Simmons’ The Fall of Hyperion.

The Emperor of All Maladies.

Siddhartha Mukherjee, an Indian-born American oncologist who trained at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, won the Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction for his 2010 tome The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer, his first book and an enormous undertaking – an exhaustive attempt to chronicle the history of the disease itself and the ongoing scientific fight to cure it. Interspersed with anecdotes from his own oncology work, including several patients he treated – some who survived the disease, and many who did not – Emperor covers a truly incredible amount of ground, often with more detail than I needed to understand the story, and presents a sobering picture of how endless the efforts to treat and cure cancer will be, given the disease’s nature and ability to defeat our best weapons against it.

Mukherjee goes back to ancient Egypt and Greece to give us the earliest known examples of the disease’s appearance and explain how it got its name – it’s from the Latin word meaning ‘crab,’ and the word carcinoma comes from the Greek word for the same – but the bulk of the history in this book starts in the mid-19th century with the first real identification of a specific cancer, leukemia. The story wends its way through the late part of that century with the advent of radical mastectomies to remove breast cancer, disfiguring surgeries that would remove many muscles beyond the breasts and that were the brainchild of the coke-addicted surgeon William Halsted, who also conceived the modern residency program for new doctors that forces them to operate without sleep. We get the discovery that radiation causes cancer, and the related discovery that it might treat cancer as well, as would certain drugs that we now put under the umbrella of chemotherapy. Mukherjee takes the science thread all the way through what were, at the time, the latest developments in oncology treatment and research, including the ongoing identification of oncogenes (genes that, when switched ‘on,’ can produce cancer), proto-oncogenes (genes that become oncogenes with mutations), and anti-oncogenes (tumor-suppressing genes); and therapies that target specific cancer subtypes based on their genotypes – such as Herceptin, which has proven exceptionally effective against breast and other cancers cancer with the HER2 oncogene.

The science bits – my favorite, of course – are interspersed with much of the story of the American public policy fight over cancer, which led to a so-called “War on Cancer,” the passage of the 1971 National Cancer Act to boost the National Cancer Institute, and many breathless pronouncements that we were mere years away from finding a cure. The narrative lags at several points here – the origin story of the Jimmy Fund’s “Jimmy,” real name Einar Gustafson, is the big exception – although it serves as a reminder of how credulous the world was, including early researchers into oncology, about our ability to ‘beat’ or cure cancer. Cancer is not just one disease; it is many, probably hundreds, of diseases that all share the common characteristic of abnormal cell growth, but that can differ substantially by their origin in the body, and even for a specific source or organ can come in vastly diverse forms that require different, targeted treatments. The above-mentioned Herceptin works on HER2+ cancers, mostly breast cancer but sometimes appearing in gastric or ovarian cancers; it will be ineffective against HER2-negative cancers. Someone with ‘breast cancer’ can have any of several forms of the disease – each of which will respond in totally different ways to treatments. This is good news and bad news; the more we know about specific forms of cancer, the better that scientists can come up with targeted treatments to attack them, but there are also far more forms of cancer than we’d ever realized in the history of our fight against the disease. The single ‘cure for cancer’ is probably a chimera, because cancer is not just one thing, but a common attribute of many diseases, and stopping that attribute – rampant cell division – would kill regular cells too.

The Emperor of All Maladies is kind of a depressing read, between the awful outcomes for some of the patients described, but also because the outlook for the future of the disease is not that great. Yes, the medical world continues to search for and find treatments for specific cancers, some of which are the most effective drugs in the history of oncology, but it’s also clear that if your specific cancer isn’t one of those, the medical response is the same drug cocktail approach that has been the norm for decades – better than it was, and with the benefit of drugs to help combat nausea, but still an ordeal for the patient with modest success rates. And finding Herceptin-like advances for all cancers will take many years and billions of dollars that may not be available without a massive public investment. Dr. Mukerjee has put together a remarkable work of research and insight, written with great feeling for the individual patients fighting their cancers, but I left this book feeling worse about the war on cancer than I ever had before.

Next up: Dan Simmons’ The Fall of Hyperion.

Stick to baseball, 7/28/18.

Trade writeups for Insiders:

Jeurys Familia to Oakland
Zach Britton to the Yankees
J.A. Happ to the Yankees
The Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades
Cole Hamels to the Cubs

I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

On the board game front, I reviewed Istanbul: The Dice Game for Paste this week; it’s fun, and quick to learn and play, but not as good as the original Istanbul.

At 1 pm today (Saturday) I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, talking Smart Baseball and signing books. I hope to see many of you there – and some more of you at Gen Con in Indianapolis next week as well, where I have a signing scheduled on Friday at noon and am happy to sign books any other time during the con.

I’ve been sending out my free email newsletter a bit more often lately; you can sign up through that link and see archives of past editions.

And now, the links…

Perdido Street Station.

I didn’t love China Miéville’s Hugo Award-winning novel The City & the City, but I was and still am awed by its inventive setting – a city-state that is divided in two, but where the two independent entities overlap and intertwine, like a Baarle-Nassau taken to an extreme not just of geography but of thought. The story didn’t live up to the creative setup, but the mere idea has really stuck with me in the years since I’ve read it.

His imagination is on display in his sprawling novel Perdido Street Station, which goes so much further in the direction of bizarre science fiction, set on an unnamed planet in a city that feels like it’s from somewhere after civilization has fallen and risen a few times, populated by strange and biologically improbable alien races, including humanoid insects who have to speak in sign language. The novel starts out as if there are going to be a pair of mysteries around the two central characters, but most of that is just a red herring for what’s really coming – an invasion of sorts by giant moths that feed on the dreams of sentient creatures, leaving their bodies functioning but their minds useless. The stories that occupied Isaac and Lin, the human and insect couple (yeah … put a pin in that), turn out to be related to the larger plot but get pushed way to the back burner once the moths show up, and Isaac in particular becomes the reluctant hero who leads a motley crew of outcasts to try to stop the infestation before the moths can breed and ultimate wipe out the entire city. (Not mentioned, however, is what the moths would do for sustenance once they ate everyone’s souls.)

If you get the sense that I didn’t buy any of this, well, good job, because while the prose moved along well and Miéville can certainly keep the pace of the plot quick enough when he wants to, to do so, Miéville piles detail upon detail and twist upon twist, to the point where I found my interest in the story waning from sheer plot fatigue. Isaac’s side project, which turns out to be relevant to the moth quest, is to build an engine that can harness “crisis energy,” a fictional but functionally limitless energy source. There’s a lot of handwaving and “I have to make the math work out” sort of writing here, but it ends up feeling like juvenilia: Great science fiction either explains its fictional science in terms that tie it to real science to keep it credible, or it pushes the fictional science under the hood and tells you not to worry about it. Perdido Street Station does neither.

And then there’s the whole alien races thing, not least of which is the utterly creepy human-insect love story, which Miéville really goes well out of his way to explain, both in how it happened and in how they have sex, a scene that definitely had me reaching for the Raid. Alien species are hardly novel in the world of science fiction, and they’re often quite ridiculous (David Brin, please step to the front). Miéville here seems to have deliberately created extra-weird species, just for the sake of weirdness. There isn’t any compelling reason here to have an intelligent, evolved, humanoid-insect species in the book. It just makes it all weirder and kept puncturing my suspension of disbelief.

One thing Miéville does get right here, however, is make the stakes high. Central characters are injured and killed. There are certainly points where it seems like the moths might eke out a partial if not total victory. By the end of the book, even though the good guys sort of win, the cost has been very high. More writers operating in this space need to work like that – if I know everyone is going to survive to the end of the book (or movie or TV series), then every crisis or potential tragedy you show me feels forced.

I stuck with this through all 700-plus pages in some vain hope of a big payoff to the main plot, but Miéville didn’t quite deliver that either. There were some parts of the heroes’ plan that were extremely clever, and some that didn’t translate well to the page – to the point where I had a hard time picturing any of what was going on. (The moths, by the way, exist in multiple dimensions, as do some other creatures here, making them exceptionally hard to kill.) And for as much as Miéville seems to want the city itself and Perdido Street Station to sit at the heart of the story, I never got much of a picture of the setting, either. The whole book just ended up feeling like a dumping ground for the products of the author’s prodigious imagination, but there just wasn’t enough meat to the story to make it work.

Next up: Almost through Maryn McKenna’s Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats

Klawchat 7/26/18.

My Insider post on the Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades is now up. Also, I have a new board game review up at Paste, covering Istanbul the Dice Game, which strips down the original Istanbul (an amazing game from 2014) to something quicker, simpler, but also more driven by chance.

Keith Law: You left all the lights on, but there’s nobody home. Klawchat.

Nick L: Is this peak Javy Baez? It almost feels like even a little more discipline moves him dangerously close to MVP discussions.
Keith Law: I think this is peak Baez; it’s unlikely (albeit not impossible … just highly improbable) that he finds plate discipline now.

Chris: Hi Keith. Looking forward to your book signing this weekend in MA. What do you think about how the Red Sox made out in the Eovaldi for Beeks trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: That post just went up (Insider).

Frank: The Jays traded a reliever for what MLB Pipeline says is the Rockies 13th & 24th best prospects. Would those qualify as lottery prospects, or is the Rockies system good enough that those are a little better than that? Side question: what would you expect the Jays to get for Happ?
Keith Law: See the link I just posted.

Arnold: Actual SI FB post earlier this week: “Mets Prospect Tim Tebow out for season.” Prospect??? Maybe fate favors the Mets since this means Tebow won’t be blocking any actual prospects for the rest of the season, but the Mets are gonna force this charade on us next season, aren’t they?
Keith Law: There are many people, even within this industry, who treat “prospect” and “minor leaguer” as synonyms. They are not.

Eddie: Wander Franco has looked great so far, can you think of another J2 signee that you rated so highly in his 1st season?
Keith Law: Yes, several, including Sano & Vlad Jr.

Dana: Do you fault Gary Sanchez for not hustling considering he reaggravated his injury in the first inning? I feel like he’s getting unfairly crushed here.
Keith Law: I wish Latino there was Latino some sort of Latino reason why Latino everyone is so Latino quick to criticize Latino certain players for not Latino hustling.

Mark: It seems the Rays take high floor players in trades, and the Padres have a rule 5 roster problem approaching, so could this explain the Padres and Archer rumor? The Rays might be willing to take some of the players the Padres aren’t going to be able to protect in addition to some premium talent. They made a similar deal in the past (can’t remember the details) where Boxberger, Andriese, and Forsythe were the return who have been nice players, but at the time were seen as high floor useful guys. Thanks!
Keith Law: Is the Padres’ rule 5 apocalypse that close? I think they’re a year-plus away from that. I don’t hate this idea like the Hosmer (-0.7 fWAR … but TEH LEADERSHIP) deal, but it’s still not really ideal for the Padres unless they’re somehow doing this without trading any of their top 10 prospects.

Ike: If you had your choice for a franchise player, who would you take between Acuna, Soto or Vlad jr?
Keith Law: Acuna. Or Tatis Jr.

Rich: Any advice for a first-time author? I am about to start writing after years of research. What were some of your biggest stumbling blocks with SB? Also, I hope to make it this Saturday in Acton at the Silver Unicorn!
Keith Law: I wrote that all pretty quickly, so I’m not sure I’d have stumbling blocks to offer. Just carve out dedicated time to write each day, because it’s easy to procrastinate on a project like that with long deadlines.

addoeh: To continue the discussion from the last Klawchat, is Creed worse than Nickelback and would positive comments about either “music” group cause a prospect to fall due to “dumb social media comments”?
Keith Law: My warning to all players at any level: If your walkup music is by Post Malone, I don’t care how good you are, I am slapping a fucking NP label on you and never looking back.

Joe: Keith, are there any good reasons why Ced Mullins and Dj Stewart are still in AAA given the Orioles’ struggles?
Keith Law: Is there a burning reason why either should be up? These aren’t elite prospects.

Joe: Keith, it seems like the Orioles hung on to Britton too long like they did with Machado. Would you have traded him after his huge season in 2016 even though the Orioles had just made the playoffs? His value was never higher and Chapman and Miller were just traded for huge hauls.
Keith Law: I would have, and I think I said so at the time, but it’s also a bit unfair to criticize them on Britton because he got hurt during the offseason and scotched any chance they could trade him then.

Aaron C.: What do you do if you’re Billy Beane/David Forst? (1) Hope the A’s offense continues to make Cahill/B. Anderson/E. Jackson look serviceable? (2) Trade for a back-end starter? (3) Trade some top-tier prospect(s) for a front-end starter? Thanks!
Keith Law: More like (2). Definitely not (3).

Bob: I know Isaac Paredes isn’t likely a SS, but he hit well in the FSL at 19 and Det must think highly of him to promote him to AA as a teenager. How good can he be as a 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: Above-average regular at 2b or 3b, definitely not a shortstop. Little bit of stat-scouting going on around him – good prospect, not an elite one.

Bob: After a rough start to the year in AA, Brent Rooker has been dominant for nearly 2 months. What’s his upside?
Keith Law: Solid-average regular.
Keith Law: I guess maybe a 55, above-average regular. Probably 1b. He is a grade 80 tweeter though.

Bob: Hans Crouse has had a couple recent 7 IP/double digit K starts. Does he have front of the rotation upside or more a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Delivery is reliever. Mentality is probably reliever too. Stuff would let him start.

mike sixel: Some Twins’ fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can’t extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year….but, 18MM?
Keith Law: Hardest of passes.

Bob: Kevin Kramer has followed up his AA breakout with a very similar AAA season. Can he be an above average regular?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no.

PhillyJake: In your write up of Mitch Keller, you wrote “If he finds that third pitch — better feel for the changeup, maybe even a splitter — he has No. 1 starter upside.” On June 28th, the day after Keller was promoted to Indy (AAA), Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects wrote about how his improvement in his secondary pitches lead to the promotion. I realize that ranking him 24th overall means you don’t hate him (Or the Pirates!), but I’m wondering when you’ll get a chance to see him again to see with your own eyes?
Keith Law: I have seen him – I just saw him – and what I wrote is completely accurate.

Bob: Have you had a chance to see Daniel Johnson in Harrisburg? He has not repeated his A ball power numbers, but his overall game looks solid. Can he be a starter or more a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me, some small chance of a regular.

MIKEPCFL: Just a quick thank you for sharing about the loss of your family cat and how your daughter handled it. It was very touching. Never just stick to baseball.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you, all of you, for reading and reaching out after I sent that newsletter.

Harold: Was the White Sox’ 2017 draft as good as it appears with Sheets, Gonzalez, Hentzman, Tyler Johnson, Battenfield, etc. all doing well?
Keith Law: I just wrote up Sheets and Gonzalez … Sheets in particular looks bad, and bear in mind they took a lot of college guys who *should* do well in the low minors. Shame about Berger, though – he seemed like the kind of guy who could finish his first year in AA or higher.

Moe Mentum: Favorite band or musician that your wife was into before you were?
Keith Law: We have wildly different tastes in music. There isn’t much overlap other than bands we both liked from the ’80s.

CD: Ramon Laureano has had a nice bounce back season in AAA. Do you think he can defend well enough to be an average-ish regular in CF?
Keith Law: Astros tried to alter his swing – launch angle! – and it wrecked his 2017. I think definite fourth OF who can play all three spots, maybe 10-15% chance of a regular. I particularly like him as a player, just the way he plays, not the biggest tools but enough athleticism and a really good idea of what he’s doing.

C-Note: Who is the 2nd best player in baseball?
Keith Law: Trout is 1 and Mookie is 2. You can start your arguments at 3.

Seath: Do you have any other plans while in MA? Going to the RedSox-Twins series? I would have loved to go to your book event.
Keith Law: Nope, having dinner with my best friend from grade school and then driving home.

Concerned citizen: Why don’t other countries on par with the U.S. have the same amount of vaccines that are required?
Keith Law: Ask them. The science on this is quite clear.

SeanE: Will Craig has put up solid power numbers but with a corresponding drop in BA and OBP. Can he reach a happy medium and become a productive MLB 1b?
Keith Law: Don’t think so – more like a below-average regular/bench piece.

Jerry: Is Josh James a legit prospect. Seems to have really taken a step forward. Is he a high strikeout mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Huge arm, has touched 99, bad delivery, command way behind control. Lot of relief risk. I have not seen him myself.

Neal Huntington: Do I put together a package of prospects to add a starting pitcher for the stretch run or was the recent streak just smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: I would not advocate buying; there are nine other teams competing for the same playoff spots, and I don’t think their true talent level is better than their two divisional rivals.

Kevin: What kind of return could Carlos Rodon catch for the White Sox? Since there are not too many young, controllable SP on the market and they are still a few years away from competing, should the Sox look to maximize his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think the value would be that great for a guy who is less than a year off significant shoulder surgery and who hasn’t had a full season of sustained production.

SeanE: Any chance that Oniel Cruz can stick at SS or is his future at 3b? Is he a candidate for your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: No chance of SS. I’m not sure he can stay on the dirt – dude is like a skyscraper out there.

Dave: Do you have any recs for a good vegetarian cookbook?
Keith Law: Nothing I absolutely love; the best cookbook I have for vegetables is Nigel Slater’s Tender, which is veg-focused but not truly vegetarian. I own one of Isa Chandra Moskowitz’s books (Isa Does It!), which is vegan, but most of the recipes don’t work without significant modifications – I don’t think anyone tested them.

Jack: Does Haseley adding a leg kick, and subsequent success(SSS ik) potentially increase his value at the deadline?
Keith Law: No, pure SSS. Swing has been awful.

David: Have you ever played much chess?
Keith Law: Yes but I’m not very good at it.

Jeremy: I just wanted to reach out and say that I appreciate your willingness to discuss things outside baseball. While I may often disagree with your positions on some matters, I enjoy being able to read other opinions and points of view and discuss them in a civilized manner.
Keith Law: Thank you. That is also why I moderate the comment sections here so strictly – I would rather have a smaller but more civil discussion by keeping anyone seeking to comment in bad faith out.

Harry: Which Under Armour players impressed you the most? Did you write this event up?
Keith Law: There was zero chance I was taking a trip when my daughter needed me home like that.

Trevor: Thoughts on Forrest Whitley being rewarded with an invite to the Futures Game after serving a 50-game suspension?
Keith Law: Not great, Bob, but he ended up getting hurt anyway. MLB was in a tight spot – he’s the best RHP prospect in baseball, and not inviting him would have been weird, too.

Joe: Was there a time in your early days of scouting when you would look past flaws in order to defend guys you essentially “discovered?”
Keith Law: I’ve never discovered anyone. I go see players scouts or execs have identified for me as players to see.

Gerry : Beyond Rhys Hoskins’ obvious offensive talent, when scouting a player, do scouts really take into account leadership qualities as a tipping point for player A over player B, who be more high risk? Thanks KLaw
Keith Law: Not really. I think people tend to retcon that stuff on to a guy after he turns out to be good (or just gets paid a lot).

GEO: My condolences on your loss of Bailey; I once had a black cat of the same name. It’s a difficult decision to have to make. May I ask how you knew he was ill in the first place? They seldom tell you when they are in pain. Or was it uncovered in a regular vet exam?
Keith Law: That very afternoon, he was howling like he’d never done before, and that was the first sign. If you read my latest newsletter (tinyletter.com/keithlaw) I tell the whole story. It was shocking because he seemed fine just days before.

Joshua: I know it was a small, pretty inconsequential trade, but is there anything to be excited about with Jacob Condra-Bogan in the Goodwin trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: No. There were some strange claims that he was throwing up to 99, but he’s not. He’s a great story but I have 90-94 from scouts.

Doug: I think Buster might need to take a breath. What’s the problem with Preller checking in on controllable pitchers?
Keith Law: I agreed with Buster’s point – Archer’s window doesn’t coincide that well with when the Padres’ young core should be in the majors and producing.

Nate: You’ve mentioned the Cards Hudson having the look of a reliever. Is the basis stuff, mechanics, makeup, other?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: I don’t know about his makeup and can’t think of times that pushed a guy to relief.

xxx(yyy): Any specific recommendations for a Game Night with other couples (so not OVERLY difficult to understand rules/games)?
Keith Law: Something like Coup, Love Letter, One Night Werewolf (if you have 5+ people), Crossfire … social deduction games that move fast, don’t have a lot of rules, work well with alcohol.

xxx(yyy): Who ends up the better MLBer of the Rangers L Tavares or J.P. Martinez?
Keith Law: Taveras for me. He was on my top 50; Martinez wasn’t and wasn’t a consideration.

JB: CJ Chatham seems to have bounces back after the injury. Reason to be optimistic or is he old for high-A? Thanks!
Keith Law: Saw him. Like the glove/hands a lot. Bat is light.

Mark Antoch: Over/Under HR’s if you give Tyler O’Neill if the Cards gave him 550 AB’s in the majors next year? He’s a beast
Keith Law: 28 homers and a sub-.300 OBP.

Bryan: I always forget to show up at chat times, so I just wanted to say thanks for always being helpful and answering random questions on Twitter. But since I’m supposed to ask a question here — were you playing Pandemic Legacy? How is it going/did it go? (we’re about to embark on Season 2, and I’m already stressed out about it!)
Keith Law: We played it 5 times, I think, and liked it, but we’re often bringing other games to the table. Charterstone also sort of leapfrogged it in our legacy game queue.

Nate: Better OF prospect, Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: One was on my top 50

Steve Culver: While they are all important, is there a particular race you are rooting for in the Nov elections? Really need to flip the house.
Keith Law: Not especially. They’re all important, and I just want to see more pro-science people in government at all levels.

Brian: What has happended in the last decade or so that has helped improve these 19-21 year olds succeed so early in MLB? Before trout and Harper, i dont recall seeing so many young players contribute so early at the major league level (excluding JR and Andrew Jones).
Keith Law: They’re a lot more physically developed now at 19-20 than I remember them being ten years ago, but I don’t know if the data on their performances bears out the impression we both have that they’re succeeding sooner.

Pete: Is Cornelius Randolph still prospect-worthy? 21yrs old at AA. Shows flashes
Keith Law: Not really. young but showing nothing, and he’s a 4 in LF.

Joshua: Do upcoming “mid-tier” free agents like Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy hope they get traded so that they don’t have compensation attached to them in the offseason? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Probably – it seems to hit them worse than it does top-tier guys, as you’d expect.

Mundo: What are your thoughts on Jonathan Loaisiga?
Keith Law: Love him if healthy, but he hasn’t stayed healthy. Mid-rotation upside, reliever downside.

Mark Antoch: Are you watching any HBO shows? Succession or Sharp Objects?
Keith Law: I finished S1 of the Leftovers. No interest in Succession.

addoeh: Favorite music video from the 80’s?
Keith Law: It’s tough to beat “Thriller,” although counting the whole 20 minutes is probably cheating.

Jesse B: Have you seen or heard anything about Nate Lowe to think the breakout is for real?
Keith Law: Saw him in DC. Slugger without defensive value. He’s something, not a star.

Ridley Kemp: Luis Rengifo is rocketing through the Angels’ system this year with some silly looking numbers (.316/.420/.484) with more walks than strikeouts. Have you had a chance to see him, or have you heard anything about him? He was totally off my radar coming in to this year.
Keith Law: I have heard solid utility type. Not a shortstop, maybe a 2b-of type who can fill in at short (not that he’ll do that with Andrelton there). Has played in some very good hitters’ parks this year too.

Doug: Which of the four Missions’ pitchers hits the bigs first? Paddack, Quantrill, Nix, or Logan?
Keith Law: Nix then Paddack.

John: Any non-fiction book recs from the last 12-24 months? Looking for a gift for my Dad’s birthday and he loves NF!
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon or Evicted.

Andy: Could Mookie have been an elite fielding 2B?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure there’s a position where Mookie couldn’t be an elite fielder.

paul: love your work. question about the metropolitans. with cespedes out indefinitely should the mets trade degrom and thor? as a fan I almost think I might just stop watching baseball if they do. if all the players you cheer and root for get traded prematurely or hurt (david wright) and you have terrible ownership (also a redskins fan so its a double ball kick) what’s the point?
Keith Law: The franchise should trade them, but with no clear direction or single decision-maker right now, they should wait to hire a full-time GM and then make those deals. Doing it now, with a potentially restricted market (more teams likely to be buyers in December than July), probably reduces your return.

Adam: Should Touki be in the Braves pen now?
Keith Law: No. that would be counterproductive.

Jax : Is it 50/50 that Zack Collins stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: It’s like 10/90, or maybe less.

Esteban : How likely is it that the Wilpon’s are forced to sell the team? And are there any potential owners out there that would bring excitement to the team? Coming from a Mets fan
Keith Law: I think next to zero chance. They only did this with McCourt when he was (supposedly) about to miss payroll.

John: Do you think we see a multi-inning relief pitcher in a fireman-type role put up 100 IP in the next 5 years? (strictly RP – 0 start guys – have put up even 100 IP since 2010)
Keith Law: Would you consider a guy who makes 1-5 starts still a multi-inning reliever? I’m okay with that. The guy you’re describing would have to be capped at something like 50 appearances a year and we haven’t seen that in … 20 years?

ColinMoran: What do you think of Seth Lugo as an under the radar acquisition as a starter. Small sample but very good xwOBA as a starter.
Keith Law: xwOBA doesn’t work. Lugo’s interesting, more likely a reliever – get him and have him throw that CB a ton.

JJ: Did the Cardinals’ front office screw the pooch with Carson Kelly? Should they try to trade him now, even though his value has declined? I can’t see any way he takes any playing time from Yadi Molina over the next two plus seasons — he’s got more job security than a governor’s brother-in-law.
Keith Law: Could still trade him now/this winter. Everybody needs catching.

Troy: What is the best restaurant in the nation you’ve eaten at?
Keith Law: Juniper & Ivy in San Diego. Would also nominate Monteverde in Chicago, Cotogna in San Francisco, PYT in Los Angeles, Rose’s Luxury in DC, Five & Ten in Athens GA, Husk in Nashville/Charleston, and of course Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix.

Dave: (Six Seasons and Root to Leaf are both really solid and current vegetarian cookbooks)
Keith Law: I will check these out.

Harry: Kodi Medeiros headed to the White Sox for Soria. Reactions?
Keith Law: I have never bought into Medeiros as anything more than a LH specialist.

Jesse B: Daz Cameron looks way better in AA than he did in High A, does this have anything to do with the two different leagues or is he just getting better?
Keith Law: FSL can be rough on guys with just so-so power. Aaron Judge power, you’re fine. Less than that, might be rough.

Tom C: Sorry about your cat, but I wanted to ask – was that the one that got stuck in the wall a while ago?
Keith Law: That’s him! Good memory. Bailey was a sweet cat but not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

Simon: Jhailyn Ortiz….real deal or just a guy?
Keith Law: I am completely sold on the bat. I am far from sold that he can play LF.

Bob Nutting: Would Kramer and Newman (not the Seinfeld guys) be and upgrade over Mercer and Harrison? Seems to me they would at least be comparable and I could save mega $. What is not to like?
Keith Law: I’d be OK with this, assuming you think you could deal the two veterans for something useful.

Zihuatanejo: Why is the hit/power/speed/glove/arm scouting rubric still widely used for position players? It always seemed to me that it improperly suggested an equivalence between differently-valued tools.
Keith Law: It’s a useful framework, but the bigger problem is averaging the five grades, or otherwise pretending that, say, speed is as important as hit or power.

Drew: Is Dillon Tate the most promising prospect the O’s have acquired so far?
Keith Law: Diaz is.

Troy: How did you and Curt Schilling get along when he worked at ESPN.
Keith Law: Actually quite well.

Scott Rolan: Am I a Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: yes, but you will have to spell your name correctly to get the 200 points.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Kelenic made your top 50 update but was #6 on your draft board behind Bohm and Swaggerty, who didnt end up making the list. Why the bump up after just a few weeks of pro ball?
Keith Law: Is that OK with you? I didn’t realize I needed to adhere strictly to the draft board. We get more data on players and pro scouts get their first looks at guys once they sign.
Keith Law: I spoke to scouts who saw all three players you mentioned.

Ridley Kemp: Did you see the recent article on Cohl Furey and the quest to find the Grand Unified Theory using obscure algebra instead of by bashing particles together? If not, it’s a heady read (and it makes me a little ill to think some of our top minds are seriously considering busking to further their work):
Keith Law: Yes, this was in my latest Saturday links post … but I won’t pretend I understood the math either.

James: Would you be opposed to a “prospect roundtable” broadcast of yourself and other experts who do lists, such as Callis, Mayo, Sickles, BA staffers, etc, and arguing your lists with each other? Personally I’d pay money to see it.
Keith Law: Mayo and I have discussed doing something like this with Jim for years but could never get all sides to agree. The three of us get along quite well, even though I think readers think we’re rivals of some sort.

Matt : If the Yankees end up in the WC game would you give any thought to them starting anyone other than Severino and rely on the bullpen heavy so they can pitch him in game 1 against the Sox or Astros?
Keith Law: Yes, but that takes some serious stones to actually do it.

Joshua: Is Carter Kieboom a realistic option for the Nats opening day 2019 starting second baseman? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic.

Braised Short Ribs: Come back to us, Keith!
Keith Law: I miss you, man. I really do.

Stephen: Take on S1 of the Leftovers?
Keith Law: Amazing. Extremely well-acted across the board. Fascinating themes. Thought the season finale was clumsy, though.

Nick: Any concerns about David Peterson’s struggles in Hi-A? Reports are he has been getting hit hard since the promotion.
Keith Law: And his stuff is off a little too – dead arm, maybe? I’m hoping it’s nothing serious. He was straight dealing for almost three months, with stuff/reports to match.

James: Do you think the wrong Lowe played in the Futures game? I’m partial to Brandon – agree?
Keith Law: Same.

Marshall MN: In regard to TV shows, I give my highest recommendation to the German TV show “Dark” on Netflix.
Keith Law: Thank you. I think someone else rec’d that. Or maybe it was you and you’re just relentless?

Todd Boss: Strasburg to DL: is it officially wave the white flag time in DC? Their comp pick for Harper is almost useless thanks to poor cap management; do they dare make the trade and admit complete failure? Gio, Murphy maybe even Wieters might have trade value?
Keith Law: I could go either way with this. Yeah, if they sell, they could potentially add a lot of talent – if there are buyers for Harper or Murphy. But they’re also a lot better on paper than their record, and the teams ahead of them have both overachieved a lot. If they decide to stand pat, I won’t criticize them.

Joshua: In the past you’ve rated Luis Garcia below Yasel Antuna, is this still how you’d rate them? Thanks.
Keith Law: I rated them just once, but Garcia has moved way past Antuna, whose body apparently has gone way backwards, showing no twitch or athleticism this summer.

Brad: Thanks for the idea to read the Hugo Award winners. Any chance of going back to any other Sci-Fi/Horror books? I’ve just started Name of the Wind (Book 1 of the Kingkiller Chronicle) and it’s really good so far! Thanks for the great work
Keith Law: I’m reading non-Hugo winners too – I have The Fall of Hyperion in my suitcase right now.

Adam: I live ten minutes from Pizzeria Bianco and have still never been there
Keith Law: What is wrong with you?

Matt : Funny how republicans hate socialism but are somehow okay with a $12B handout to farmers being altered by Trump’s crazy trade war.
Keith Law: I pointed out to someone on Twitter who was decrying universal health care as “socialism” (not accurate) that we have seen actual ideas that resemble socialism from this administration – you named one, and the proposal to nationalize coal plants was another – than far more than the philosophy of providing health care for all citizens, which research indicates will lead to a more productive populace and greater economic growth, has to be.
Keith Law: People have been using “socialism” as a pejorative for economic ideas they dislike at least since I was in high school, probably back to McCarthyism. Socialism is a failure. That does not mean that laissez-faire capitalism is the correct solution for every policy problem.

Nate: Would you call up Lazardo to be a pen piece down the stretch and, possibly, in the postseason?
Keith Law: I would not.

Brandon Nimmo: Any interest in writing about politics? Love reading your takes on Twitter.
Keith Law: ESPN wouldn’t allow it, and I’d have to spent a LOT more time reading about those topics to be even close to educated enough to really write about it. It’s one thing to tweet; it’s another entirely to ask someone to pay you to write thousand-word columns that offer cogent arguments.

Jack: Do you think it is just my Philly fandom that I think there is a real possibility that trout comes to Philly when his contract is up? Middleton seems like he wants a splash.
Keith Law: I’m sure Middleton does … and so does every other owner with cash.

Brandon Nimmo: Whoever acquires Zack Wheeler is going to look really smart aren’t they? I just hope the Mets get more than RHP relief prospects.
Keith Law: There is no way I’m taking Wheeler if Woolsey isn’t in the deal too.

Jim: How good is Azul?
Keith Law: I loved it. Best game of 2017 for me. Easy to pick up, plays a little differently each time.
Keith Law: Plays well with 2, 3, or 4 too.

Mike: Does Brendan Rodgers have superstar potential?
Keith Law: Yeah, but more likely a solid 55.

Amy: Wouldn’t Mookie have more value as a 2B? If Pedrioa is done, why not move him to 2B, benintendi to CF, JBJ right, JDM left? Wouldn’t that maximize the lineup?
Keith Law: Sure, if Pedroia can accept the demotion.

Darryl: What is an appropriate age for considering travel ball? I chuckle at the parents who think a kid needs to be on display as a 9 y/o. Always thought anything before high school was a waste of money, time and potential abuse of an arm, but it may be my old school thinking that is getting in the way of things…
Keith Law: I tell parents in my neighborhood that it’s fine for their kids to play travel ball as long as they’re not being asked to fork out hundreds of dollars for events, and as long as they’re making sure their kids who pitch are following PitchSmart guidelines (lord knows the coaches don’t care). Playing more is good. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re advancing his future just by paying more for high-profile events.

Brian: Would you mind clarifying what “Mentality is probably reliever too” means in reference to Hans Crouse?
Keith Law: He pitches like he wants to shove the ball down the hitter’s throat. I love it. And sometimes that kind of guy stays a starter (Scherzer comes to mind). Most end up relievers. It was a compliment, though.

Vladdy & Eloy: Please please please, don’t rank either of us #1 on your next prospect list! Muchas gracias!
Keith Law: Seriously. I don’t believe in hexes, curses, or other superstitions, but I can’t believe Tatis got hurt within hours of me listing him as #1. Hoping he and Vlad Jr. come to Fall League!

Nick L: It looks like Miguel Amaya is certainly the best Cubs prospect, but how good could he be? Do you see him as a top 75 prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a top 100 guy, I feel pretty confident about that. He is their #1 prospect, easily.

Josh: Do you ever see a point where the current ownership of the A’s spends like the average MLB team? Seems like a new stadium is just an excuse. If the Warriors are able to spend and be successful across the parking lot, why can’t the A’s do more?
Keith Law: If they spend more now, it undercuts their claims that they need a new stadium (which they do – not that i think the city should pay for it, but they do need one). They have a strong disincentive.

Devon: Hi Keith. How has your anxiety been? Also, how is it when you travel? My symptoms tend to get worse. Any tips? Thanks!
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’ve been pretty good the last few weeks; it’s always higher leading up to the draft. The vacation helped, once we were on the plane.

KO: What is your favorite Cape League Park to watch a game at?
Keith Law: I can tell you my least favorite is Wareham.

BE: Will there be any big names at the August deadline, or was last year just an anomoly?
Keith Law: Last year was an anomaly.

Chip: What’s the top of next year’s draft looking like? I know it’s all highly subject to change, but wondering if there’s a generational talent or at least a Mize up their for the O’s
Tom: Why is Raimel Tapia in the majors if he’s not getting any playing time? Seems like a waste.
Keith Law: Very weak college pitching crop. Adequate HS crop. College bats are good not great. Overall looks like a down year.
Keith Law: I agree on Tapia, although no hitter is learning anything by hitting in Albuquerque either.

Jim: How much would Shin-Soo Choo help the phillies lineup? What would be the cost? Thanks, love your blog.
Keith Law: Does he fit them at all? Probably needs to DH. Their corner OF are both LHB.

Mike: Is there any valid reasons pitchers can’t run hard on groundballs when it appears they will be out?
Keith Law: Yeah, the risk of serious injury on something totally stupid.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 wins, 3K strikeouts, 3,000 hits, or 500 HR were automatic qualifiers for the HOF. Do you think there are any benchmarks for voters these days?
Keith Law: 3000 hits probably still gets you in unless you have the PED stain upon you. The pitching benchmarks have fallen, as they should.

Pat D: Still interested in seeing The Happytime Murders?
Keith Law: Yep. That and Black Klansman are the two films I’m most looking forward to right now.

bartleby: please explain to me why Jose Reyes and Juan Bautista are getting playing time.
Keith Law: #LOLMets?

Bredin: Is Gavin Lux a top 100 guy? Could you just give us your thoughts on him in general as well? Thank you, sir.
Keith Law: I’m very pleased to see his progress this year, although he’s still a cipher against LHP, and I don’t know how much of his power is the Cal League and how much is that the Dodgers try to optimize every prospect’s launch angle. He can play short, though, and his hit and eye tools are already there. Regular for me with lots of potential for more.

Salzer: I love me some Bo Bichette. Has his stock taken a hit at all or is the lower average just normal growing pains?
Keith Law: I just ranked him as highly this month as I had in the winter. Still quite young for double-A, too.

Dennis S: Is there any way the Dodgers sign Machado, move him to second or third base with Seager back or would that just cripple their overall player budget?
Keith Law: Seems like they’ll be outbid, given their general philosophy on free agents – and Kershaw can opt out if he wants to, so they may end up renegotiating his deal to prevent that.

tom: Am I being too optimistic in seeing a #2 starter in Chris Paddack? I mean, to the naked eye both the control & command are 70 grade. I realize he’ll need a 3rd pitch – how has his curveball progressed? He seems to be dominating AA hitters as much as he did in High A
Keith Law: It isn’t impossible to be a #2 with a below-average breaking ball, but it’s rare/unusual.

Matt : Do you have an interest in economics or more specifically stocks/investing. With your background it seems like topics you’d be on board learning about.
Keith Law: I don’t think an individual can beat the market. Used to read a lot more on that topic, and covered a lot of it in school. More interested in the behavioral economics stuff – what drives our thinking, and our bad decisions, and why man isn’t the rational actor that 200+ years of economic philosophy claimed he was.

Brett: Scott Kingery or Luis Urias long term?
Keith Law: Urias. Both good.

Frank: Derick Rodriguez has pitched very well for the Giants. Can he be a solid #2 or #3 going forward?
Keith Law: Way too high. Back-end starter.

Jim, the Frustrated Fan: I’m SOOOO tired of seeing so many injuries as a result of head first slides. Is there any evidence feet-first slides are at all safer?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that, actually.

Darryl: Recommended restaurants in downtown Chicago? Family is taking a trip next month and would love your input!
Keith Law: Monteverde, Publican & Publican Quality Meats, any Rick Bayliss place, Little Goat (haven’t been to Girl & the Goat, I assume it’s fantastic). Pretty good little food town they got there.

Dave: I was wondering why you think nobody has signed Hanley Ramirez, since all they’d have to pay is the pro-rated minimum. Is he that done? Also wanted to thank you for the chats and for Stick to Baseball. Although I have an issue with Stick to Baseball, because of all the extra reading I have to do. BTW who’d a thunk George Will would become the voice of reason.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have any defensive value and teams are loath to burn bench spots on guys like that, not when everyone wants to carry 15 pitches.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for reading and all of your questions, and this week for bearing with me as I got caught in traffic (!) driving here on the Cape. I may not chat next week because I’ll be at Gen Con – and hope to see many of you there. Also, if you’re near Acton, Massachusetts, come see me Saturday at 1 pm at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn. I’ll talk baseball, take your questions, and sign copies of Smart Baseball!

A Bend in the River.

V.S. Naipaul is one of the most lauded novelists still living, a man whose legacy appears to have been carved in stone long ago and that is now impervious to reassessment. The Trinidadian-Indian author won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2001, won the Booker Prize in 1971 for In a Free State, won the David Cohen Prize in 1993 (for an author’s entire body of work, limited to the English language), and several lesser prizes. His seriocomic novel A House for Mr. Biswas, which catapulted him to global literary fame, appeared on both the Modern Library list of the 100 best novels of the 20th century and the TIME list of the 100 best novels written in English from 1923 (the magazine’s founding) to 2005.

His 1979 novel A Bend in the River, which was shortlisted for the Booker Prize, also made the Modern Library list and the Guardian‘s list of the 100 greatest novels ever written. Dispensing with the comedy of some of his earlier works, this novel instead paints an unflattering, inside picture of the brief rise of a newly independent African nation, but one that slides just as easily into despotism once the white authorities who provided the country’s power structure have left.

* I should mention that Naipaul’s longtime mistress Margaret Murray accused him of physically abusing her, and author Paul Theroux supported this and also wrote that Naipaul abused his wife but refused to divorce her. You can see letters from both in the New York Review of Books from 2009. Whether you can separate the man from his art is up to you.

The country of the book is never named, perhaps to keep the story generalizable to the dozens of newly formed nations in Africa of the 1960s as the white colonizers, having taken their fill of the country’s natural resources, departed the continent, sometimes with violence (Algeria, Belgian Congo), sometimes without. Naipaul’s narrator is Salim, an Indian Muslim in Africa, an outsider by caste who can observe the changes in the country in somewhat dispassionate fashion, although there are points in the novel where his difference from the majority of the population becomes or at least threatens to become an issue. The bend in the river of the title refers to the location of the small interior city where Salim lives, chosen for its advantageous geography for colonial traders, and thus a relic of a previous and dark era in the country’s history.

Salim is friends with several people who are deeply involved in the economy and/or the government of the new country, one of whom in particular becomes adviser to the leader who turns strongman as the novel progresses. Raymond, the adviser, becomes increasingly impotent even as the President – also called the Big Man – seizes more power, eventually creating a Hitler Youth-like group of young partisans while empowering the army to terrorize the people and plunder at will. It’s a familiar story drawn from dozens of real histories of newly independent nations that fell quickly into authoritarian rule because the white people left nothing behind – no institutions, no guidance, and an uneducated population unprepared for rule after years of forced ignorance from their colonial oppressors.

Naipaul couldn’t be clearer in his disdain for the colonizers and the mess they left behind, but he also seems to have little use or empathy for the populaces now under the thumbs of their new dictators, often men they supported and voted into power. The last section sees Salim traveling to London to see an old colleague, and it becomes clear that Salim is not long for his country, as Naipaul’s depiction has the new nation worse off under native leadership than it was under the white regime. Things did fall apart in many places, but there’s an underlying implication – or perhaps just my inference – that things were better under European rule, and I think that is, at best, an oversimplification.

The other issue with this book and with Mr. Biswas is that I couldn’t connect with the main characters. Biswas was a sad-sack type, born under a black cloud, but also prone to making really bad decisions that exacerbated his bad luck. Salim isn’t quite so unfortunate, running afoul of the authorities just once near the end of the book, but he’s inert as a character – the neutral narrator, involved in some of the action, but betraying none of his personality. If there’s a star in the book, it’s the town, not the people; you get glimpses of the haphazard growth of an interior city in a country that is simultaneously booming and collapsing. But that wasn’t enough to power me through the novel.

Next up: Maryn McKenna’s Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats

The Stone Sky.

N.K. Jemisin became the first African-American author to win the Hugo Award for Best Novel, and I believe the first woman of color to win it, when she took the prestigious (but generally white-dominated) prize home for her 2015 novel The Fifth Season, the opener of the Broken Earth trilogy. The story continued with The Obelisk Gate, which also took home the Hugo, and finished with last summer’s The Stone Sky, which is one of six nominees for this year’s Hugo and won Jemisin her first Nebula Award earlier this year. Continuing the saga of Essun and her daughter Nassun, two ‘orogenes’ who can control seismic movements in an earth subject to massive tectonic upheavals that cause lengthy climate disasters, The Stone Sky explains the origins of the post-apocalyptic setting and combines the parallel narratives – Essun’s, Nassun’s, and the nameless narrator of Essun’s sections, who is identified near the end of this book – into one story that answers all of the questions from the first two books. Wrapping up a series of this magnitude is difficult, and Jemisin, who has authored many other books, including series, seems to wobble as she tries to conclude this one. (UPDATE: This novel also won the Hugo, making Jemisin the first author to win the prize for all three books in a trilogy, and the first to win three straight Hugos for Best Novel.)

In the Broken Earth trilogy, humanity is in dire straits, as relatively unpredictable “Seasons” occur that produce catastrophic weather conditions that make survival extremely difficult, driving most humans, especially those near the Rifting (which I sense is by the equator), underground for the duration. If they don’t have food stores to survive, then they die. Somehow, enough humans have survived that the race persists, including some humans with the strange power of orogeny, allowing them to move the earth’s plates enough to try to stop some of those catastrophes from occurring. They also can draw on the power of the planet for combat, defensive or offensive, and there’s some overlap between the orogenes and people with a power the book refers to as magic, of even more obscure origin. And then there are the stone eaters, humanoid creatures who do as their name implies, can move through rock, and are effectively immortal.

Essun and Nassun are mother and daughter, but have been apart since the very beginning of The First Season, when Nassun’s father killed her little brother because he showed signs of orogeny and then absconded with her, leaving Essun to come home and find her son’s body with her family gone. Essun is part of a new ‘comm,’ which is trying to reach a distant haven before the imminent Season arrives, but is also still hoping to find her daughter, and in this book, she becomes aware that Nassun is doing things with her own nascent orogenic powers, driving Essun, herself one of the most powerful orogenes on the planet, to try to stop her daughter from wreaking unimaginable destruction on the world.

Nassun, meanwhile, has now lost her brother and father, and is separated from her mother, leaving her only with her Guardian, Schaffa, who acts as a father figure but also has ambiguous responsibilities beyond protecting his young charge. When his life is threatened, Nassun sets off on a quixotic mission that might save him but bring about an eschatological crisis from which humanity and the planet would never recover.
Although the series’ post-apocalyptic setting appears in the first novel to be the result of unchecked climate change, the cause of the Seasons turns out to be more fantastical than that, and any indictment of man’s reckless misuse of the planet and its environment is strictly metaphorical. The stronger metaphor, played out in parallel with Essun and Nassun, is one of man’s relationship with ‘Mother’ Earth, and the changes in the nature of that relationship over the course of the lives of both mother and child. Nassun needs her mother, but resents her absence (feeling abandoned, although that’s not fair to Essun). Essun is torn between her responsibilities to her comm – which is what’s keeping her alive – and her responsibilities to her daughter. Nassun eventually takes a course of action that reflects her youth and the poor judgment of humans whose brains have not yet fully developed, and it takes a heroic effort from Essun to try to stop her. The parallel with the man/Earth relationship here – there’s a hint of Gaia theory underneath the novel – is not perfect, but similar ideas, like man taking the environment for granted, using it up and discarding it when finished, appear in both the literal and figurative aspects of the novel.

The problem with The Stone Sky and the trilogy as a whole is the resolution of the main storyline, which seems to require Jemisin to create some new magic to complete it. The first book conceived a world that, while strange and often vague, felt self-contained: You didn’t know all of the rules of the environment, but you could trust that the author knew them and worked within their limits. By this third book, however, it seemed like Jemisin had expanded her own rule set to get to the finish line, including the transport method – like a hyperloop train through the earth – that is essential to get everyone in the right place for the slam-bang finish, and I found my suspension of disbelief starting to fall apart. Between that and some plodding prose – Jemisin is clearly brilliant and creative, but I found her style sluggish to read – I finished this book because I felt an obligation to it, but wouldn’t say I enjoyed it to the end.

Next up: still reading John Wray’s The Lost Time Accidents.

Stick to baseball, 7/21/21.

For Insiders this week, I updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors and posted analyses of the Manny Machado trade and the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My next game review for Paste will go up next week; this week I reviewed the app version of Istanbul, a great strategic game of pathfinding and set collection, here on the dish.

I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th at 1 pm to talk Smart Baseball and sign copies.

And now, the links…

Ice.

I get a daily email from a site called Bookbub that highlights ebooks on sale each day, slightly tailored to my tastes by books or authors I’ve indicated I like; I probably buy 20-25 books a year that way, sometimes picking up titles I wouldn’t have heard of otherwise. One of those was Anna Kavan’s final novel, Ice published shortly before her death in 1967, a book and author with which I was completely unfamiliar until I saw the cover in one of those daily emails and thought it sounded interesting enough to pick up (and, at maybe 150 pages total, a small investment to make). It is interesting … and absolutely one of the weirdest things I’ve ever read, defying all conventions of narrative in how it treats characters, time, or even physical reality, giving the reader (well, this reader) the sense of watching or reading someone else’s dream.

Ice is told from the perspective of an unnamed man who is following and possibly trying to protect a frail young woman, also unnamed, in a post-apocalyptic world of nuclear winter, where an ice shelf is pushing civilization back towards the equator. The girl is often with a character called the Warden, who by turns seems to be her lover, her captor, or her protector. But the narrative itself is far from straightforward; the girl is lost, injured, or killed multiple times in the story, only to reappear in the next chapter as if those things never happened. The narrator himself becomes increasingly incoherent as the book progresses, and begins to question his own sanity as the story moves along, and what exactly his feelings are for this girl, who also seems less than happy to be ‘rescued’ by him at several points in the book. Kavan herself called the story a fable, but even that fails to quite prepare the reader for what is now known as slipstream literature, which mimics the jarring, nonlinear nature of dreams or subconscious thought; it’s easier to follow than James Joyce’s attempts to write as the brain thinks, or subsequent authors who’ve done the same (like Eimear McBride), but still brings the sense of being on a rollercoaster in the dark, where you can’t anticipate the turns, drops, or the end of the ride.

Part of what makes Ice simultaneously compelling and offputting is that Kavan never tries to distinguish between what’s real and what is a delusion, dream, or hallucination of the narrator; the prose simply slips from the realistic to the bizarre without any notice to tell you that things have changed or that we’re in the narrator’s head. It’s more than just an unreliable narrator – the narrator here doesn’t seem to know he’s unreliable, and he jumps time and place in dizzying fashion. You have to enjoy that kind of writing to appreciate Ice, and if it were twice the length I would have found it frustrating, but at close to novella size it becomes a sort of thrill ride through a fever dream.

Kavan died mere months after the book’s publication in the UK and a week before its publication in the U.S., so the years of conversation and interpretation that might have followed its release never happened – and the book itself may have come to greater attention because she’d died. There’s an obvious Cold War theme to the story and the setting, both the post-nuclear aspect and the analogy of a frozen world to a war described by temperature, but more interesting to me is the exploration of woman’s agency through the eyes of a man who sees himself as her white knight but may in fact be operating entirely against her wishes. The story starts out in traditional enough fashion, with the Warden the antagonist who is threatening the girl with imprisonment, rape, or death, but it’s never even clear that the narrator and the Warden are on opposing sides, or what the girl, never named and often on the run, actually wants at any point in the book. Her story is actually the pivotal one, yet Kavan gives us barely any details on the girl herself, which seems like a perfect metaphor for the invisible women throughout human history who’ve been ignored by the men who wrote the books.

Next up: I’m reading John Wray’s 2016 novel The Lost Time Accidents.

Klawchat 7/19/18

Starting at 1 pm ET. New Insider posts: my analysis of the Manny Machado trade, the updated top 50 prospects ranking, and my analysis of the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade.

Keith Law: Take the weakest thing in you, and then beat the bastards with it. Klawchat.

Seath: you talked how the Orioles waited too long to trade Manny. What non rental player(s) do you think teams should trade now in order to maximize values
Keith Law: Chris Archer particularly comes to mind. Michael Fulmer, but that’s less urgent.

Adam: Thoughts on William Contreras? Seems to be having a really good year.
Keith Law: Yep, he’s not far off from that top tier of prospects – whether that’s top 75 or top 100 or top 120 or so, I’m not sure yet.

Hinkie: You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?
Keith Law: Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

Craig: Where was Kyle Tucker before his promotion? And I’m guessing Yordan was left off due to position concerns?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank promoted guys. Mejia was on and then off and then on again, but he was the only one. Yordan has no position that I can see, and having seen him up close a few times, if he’s really 21 years old, he doesn’t have the physique or projection we typically ascribe to a player of 21.

Nate : KLaw, sure you’ll get a bunch of questions about the Manny & Hand deals, wondering if Kyle Lewis has re-gained enough value to consider top 100 and if Burnes is still top 100? Thanks
Keith Law: Burnes was top 20 before the season, I think, but he was also called up before the list. Lewis is not top 100 until he shows he can play regularly and can still handle an OF corner. That knee injury has been a motherforker.

Michael: Could you vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not in her district.

Michael: Do you think the number of draftees who didn’t sign this year is an outlier or the start of a new trend?
Keith Law: Outlier.

Steve: Wander Franco, a young Lindor at the plate? Better?
Keith Law: Completely different players.

Andy: Obviously there is no way to know for sure if it would have been offered, but in the offseason could Baltimore have gotten Andujar and Sheffield?
Keith Law: I don’t think there were any serious talks around Machado this winter. The Orioles have so many people involved in any such decision that even when Duquette knows what the right thing to do is, he has to wait for everyone else to agree before he can do it. I don’t think Sheffield/Andujar would have been an unreasonable request.

Joe: As an Orioles fan, should I be worried about Chance Sisco? He has seemed to be overmatched, plus it looks like he doesn’t have the backing of the coaching staff.
Keith Law: The coaching staff issue can be fixed. I firmly believe in the axiom that catchers develop later and I’m not worried about him.

Hinkie: Please rank these soon to be free agent LHSP’s: Drew Pomerantz, Patrick Corbin, Yusei Kikuchi.
Keith Law: Never seen Kikuchi, sorry.

J: Do you trade DeGrom now and what kind of package could the Mets get in return? Also, do Wheeler or Matz have enough value to return a top prospect?
Keith Law: Oh, duh, he should have been in my first answer along with Archer. Sorry, been a busy morning. I’d explore trades for all three and, yes, for Thor too. See what the market offers and go from there. I imagine Wheeler or Matz would have appeal as starters who might be decent long guys in October too.

OgieOgilthorpe: I’m curious as to your thoughts on errors as a valid part of defensive stats. The vagaries of errors and official scorers was quite evident in the ASG… Yellich mis-plays a ball to OF (lights?) for a base hit, and Votto reaches over the dugout fence in out-of-play territory. Error!
Keith Law: Errors suck and I don’t look at them.

Andy: I know the comparables on BBref are a pretty blunt tool, but Yadier’s comps include Tim McCarver, Sherm Lollar, Jason Kendall, AJ Pierzynski and Terry Steinbach. Definitely good catchers all, but none of them screams HOF. Especially since so much of his case resides on defensive WAR, which is probably wildly inaccurate in all directions for catchers, how is it even controversial that he isn’t a HOFer?
Keith Law: His case really relies on framing, which 1) I don’t believe is a basis for HoF induction, and 2) wasn’t even a well-measured thing when the Yadi-for-HoF stuff started, so we’re just retconning it into his dossier now. He’s a good player. He should be in the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I can’t see any way I vote for him for the MLB Hall of Fame.

Hinkie: What’s up with Logan Davidson ? He didn’t make the USA collegiate team this summer and now he is struggling on the Cape. Is he more of a top 10 pick in the 2019 draft, a later first rounder, or has he moved out of the top round ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t invited to the USA team – not the same as not making it. I think he’s a potential top 10 pick.

Justin : Any Red Sox remotely close to your top 50? What are the chances this is the worst farm system in baseball by the offseason?
Keith Law: Seattle probably has that worst farm system thing on lockdown. KC is worse too. Boston may not be bottom five. Their problem is more that the best guys are hurt, not that their best guys aren’t good.

A big dumb idiot: I know you were high on Sean Reid-Foley for a while, and the superficial stats are starting to look pretty good in Buffalo. Have you heard anything about his recent performance?
Keith Law: I saw him this year. Think he’s probably a RP in the end.

Adam D.: Any chance for Joey Bart of Heliot Ramos to crack the top-50 next year?
Keith Law: It seems very unlikely to me, given Bart’s hit tool, and how far away Ramos seems to be.

Blackburn: After seeing what elite relievers with control have fetched in trades the last few years. What would Felipe Vazquez fetch back in a trade?
Keith Law: I may never get used to him not being Felipe Rivero (that’s my fault, not his). I would have to think he’d be in line for the Andrew Miller sort of return – you get 3 years of him and acquire him at his peak.

PhillyJake: Did the Os do better over all than the compensatory pick they’d have received for Manny rejecting the QO at the end of the season?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Grant : I saw Griffin Canning or Brandon Marsh weren’t on your top 50 or the “considered” part of the article also. What range are they in for you?
Keith Law: Marsh was top 100 before the season, no reason he wouldn’t be again. Canning is a top 100 consideration but his durability is still a question.

Guest: How close is Mejia to the big leagues? With Hedges being an elite defender and SD having so many OFs, do the Padres move him to 3B?
Keith Law: Mejia is big league ready, and have you seen Hedges’ offensive performance?

Heal Nuntingon: Is Edgar Santana enough to get the Braves to come off of one of their young starters (Fried, Allard, Gohara)?
Keith Law: For a nice middle reliever? I doubt it. San Diego had to essentially do a two-for-one to get a top-level prospect for Hand.

Weinshie: Have you had a look at Alex Kirilloff yet? If so, your thoughts.
Keith Law: Yes. He’s on the top 50 today, linked up top.

Justin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes?
Keith Law: Also both in the top 50 today, linked up top.

Jesse B: What did Jesus Sanchez do or not do to slip out of the top 50?
Keith Law: It doesn’t really work that way – this isn’t a moving list. He’s a good prospect, but there are 50 better ones right now in my opinion, guys with more bat or more defensive or positional value.

The Big Enchilada: Joey Gallo appears to have regressed this year — is he just another Mark Reynolds type, or do you think he’ll improve going forward compared to what he’s done this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the potential to improve, but it will take a serious effort from him and the coaching staff to get him to further tighten his command of the strike zone. Someone asked on Twitter why Seuly Matias wasn’t on the top 50 or honorable mentions – and he wasn’t even close, FWIW – and the short answer is that his best case scenario right now is what Joey Gallo is today.

Chris: Do you still see Corbin Burnes as a solid SP, mid rotation or better? He has looked solid out of the bullpen this year, but it seems like the Brewers don’t really need him as a SP, especially with Jimmy Nelson coming back.
Keith Law: Solid SP, yes, if they need him there. Eventually they will.

Josh: Obviously a tertiary part of the trade, but at a glance Zach Pop seems like an intriguing bullpen guy. Does he have a closer ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Middle guy. I detailed it in the writeup on the trade.

myslas: I checked up on Miguel Amaya because he was starting in the Futures game and was surprised to see he has 12 HR with a .343 OBP in A-ball as a 19 year old. Is this a fluke or is this a breakout and he’s now a top 3 prospect in Cubs system?
Keith Law: He is their #1 prospect right now. Alzolay got hurt, Ademan has been and looked terrible.

Minty: Since it’s not a fantasy list, I loved the move for your #1 prospect while praising Vlad as well. When do you see Tatis as being ready? Watching Hosmer is rough.
Keith Law: Tatis could debut in September, but won’t because of service time/40-man considerations. I think he’s up by this time next year.

Joe: Keith, I didn’t see an Alex Well write up in your post about the Futures Game. Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Command guy, I believe 89-91 that day, a little less in longer outings, but can really pitch with some deception.

J.P.: Are Mejia’s chances of sticking at catcher more or less now?
Keith Law: They haven’t changed. Your ability is not a function of the team that employs you.

Justin : The Josh Hader thing blows my mind. Don’t these guys have handlers/publicists who check their Twitter history for hate like this?
Keith Law: This should be every agent’s job. Hell, hire an intern to search your players’ social media histories. Hader is hardly the first – Ryan Rolison had some tweet hoping Obama would be assassinated from 2012, for example. As an agent or adviser, you should grill your clients on social media history, and then doubt whatever they tell you and search anyway.

Garrett: How big of a difference is there between your top prospects? Like is Mejia a lot better than someone like Adell? And is Adell a lot better than someone like Kiriloff?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to give a precise answer to that. Is prospect 5 a lot better than prospect 10? Yes. How much? Not sure. Every prospect there has a range of potential outcomes, so if Prospect 10 hits his best case scenario while prospect 5 hits his median outcome, then prospect 10 will end up better, but that doesn’t mean the ranking was necessarily wrong.

Adam: Seems like the Braves have waited too long to shop Inciarte. Would he still have some value on his current deal given his abilities defensively?
Keith Law: Remember when I got pilloried by Atlanta fans for suggesting that they shop Inciarte? That was fun. Still has two years of control left on that deal, so I think there’s value, maybe two decent prospects’ worth. Would be sensible for Atlanta to do that rather than dump prospects for a playoff push this year.

Belieber: How close was the Biebs to the top 50? In the top 100?
Keith Law: Sorry to throw cold water on you this one time, but he’s not near to top 100 kind of company.

j: Any thoughts on Yankees’ Everson Pereira?
Keith Law: Just young. Can you be a pre-prospect? That’s what he is.

Sonny: RE Hader- when Twitter reacts so vehemently to a 17 year olds tweets from 7 years ago, doesn’t it lower the ceiling of our outrage for when someone is actually racist? The Twitter screaming seems pretty extreme, considering there are people out there being murdered and beaten for their race.
Keith Law: I’m not sure why the fact that people are being beaten and murdered for their race, ethnic origin (look up Muhammad Abu Marzouk), religion, orientation, etc. matters to this discussion; it seems whataboutist to me. And Hader’s tweets weren’t stupid – it’s not like he tweeted “Man, I love Nickelback!” They were offensive, across the board, to multiple groups. It’s reasonable to call that person to account for his words.

Matt : Keith, thoughts on Yankees pitching prospect Trevor Stephan? Is he a starter or reliever long-term?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one, but every scout i know who’s seen him says reliever.

Nick: How close was Peter Alonso to making the list?
Keith Law: There was only one player on the list who profiles as either a 1b or a DH, and that guy has an 80 hit tool.

Henry: Who are some of the Top 2019 College guys?
Keith Law: Davidson for sure. Stinson at Duke, but he’s a reliever long-term. Wilson at NC State. Langeliers at Baylor; he’s a monster. Would like to see Lodolo at TCU again, as he’s come along well since HS. It’s actually a bad college crop, though. I expect a HS heavy class.

BigSauce: no mention of Autsin Riley in your latest top 50…was it the lack of PA due to injury?
Keith Law: Wasn’t on my top 100 preseason either.

Bobby Higginson: Isaac Padares a top 5 prospect in the Tiger system right now?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so, even with concerns about him.

Mac: Any thoughts on Danny Jansen? Is his bat legit?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. Offensive catcher, just adequate behind the dish.

Greg: How much more value do you think the Orioles would have gotten for Manny if they had traded him this offseason, being that he was coming off a sub-par season? After 2016 was clearly the time to trade him and Britton but would have been tough for fans to swallow coming off the Wild Card.
Keith Law: The subpar season would have had no effect. Nobody I know thought he was somehow worse, especially since he raked in the second half as he had before.

Jason: are you encouraged by corey ray’s power surege?
Keith Law: Not really – heard from scouts he’s selling out so much for power that they think it’s impacting the hit tool.

Nicky: Keith – what do you see as a projection for Justin Dunn? Saw he almost made your top 50 list. Any comps come to mind? Love the work man thank you!
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more once he has a real LF behind him.

Ryan: Was Alex Reyes no longer eligible or were his injuries simply too significant a concern to warrant placing him in your top 50?
Keith Law: Eligible, not considered. Hard to forecast him as a starter right now given how little he’s pitched. Shoulder, then elbow, and now this.

Brian: Both Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley seem to have turned their seasons around. Haseley has been consistently hitting for a few months and Moniak has 37 games of .776 OPS in spite of having his wisdom teeth out. Have you gotten any more positive reports on them?
Keith Law: I have only gotten negative reports on both guys. And I’m not sure the wisdom teeth thing is really an issue.

Matt: Thoughts on Joey Bart so far? Hitting for a high average and showing his power.
Keith Law: In short-season ball, for which he’s quite old. And he’s struck out like a quarter of the time, which we knew coming in was an issue.

Adam: Would Allard, Fried, and Pache be enough to get in the game for Degrom? Too much?
Keith Law: I would ask if someone was holding Anthopoulos at gunpoint.

Nicky: What kind of slash line do you see from Pete Alonso in his prime years? Is his defense really that atrocious? Thanks man
Keith Law: Did you see him at the Futures Game? Atrocious is unfair, but he’s not a good defender at 1b.

Chad: In your last chat you said Taylor Tramell was “definitely not” a Top 25 prospect, but he snuck in at #25. Just a reaction to the futures game or industry consensus that he’s improving?
Keith Law: Industry consensus, and also seeing him at the Futures Game helped, because a criticism I had heard from multiple scouts turned out to be unfounded (or just out of date). His swing looked great in BP and in the game.

Guest: Thoughts on Jorge Guzman…can he stick as a #2 or #3 starter or is he destined for the pen
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Justin : What has been the best/funniest interaction with a reader during your Smart Baseball tour?
Keith Law: A couple came up to me on Saturday at Politics & Prose in DC, but it was clear he was the fan and she was just hanging out. He gave me his book to sign, we chatted, and as they’re walking away, she turns to me and says, “I don’t know baseball, but I think you’re funny.”
Keith Law: Also, I think I told the story last year of showing up in Atlanta to be greeted by the best friend of my late uncle. I hadn’t seen John in probably 20+ years, and he drove in a good distance to come see me and have me sign his copy. Nothing will beat that.

Joe: Have you gotten out to see DL Hall yet? Seems to be making huge strides this year.
Keith Law: No but i want to. Huge strides, or just being what he was? Really didn’t pitch much last summer, but reports match what I heard from last spring – it’s three pitches, command is lacking, mid-rotation kind of upside, very high floor because he’s LH and can get both sides out.

mike sixel: Kyle Gibson on that list of guys to trade now, rather than wait? Or can the Twins compete next year?
Keith Law: I think they think they can compete next year, so perhaps not.

Keys: Why do you think Baseball Twitter skews so far left on the political scale?
Keith Law: Baseball Twitter tends to be strongly rationalist. The online baseball community in general is more accepting of progressive ideas around the sport and more demanding of evidence in debates or discussions. Whether that is “far left” probably depends how far in the anti-science/anti-intellectual tank you have sunk.

Justin : I know you don’t “HATE” any team per se, but which team do you like the least?
Keith Law: Yours.

Brian: Hi Keith, love your work. I know you were a little lower on Joey Bart than some others, but do you currently have in your top 100?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank out 100 guys, but based on his predraft ranking and where those guys end up on my top 100s six months later, I’d say yes.

PhillyJake: There’s been a lot made in the Pittsburgh press about the Pirates pitcher’s reliance on the fast ball. The focus has been on Cole and Morton in Houston, about how they’re doing better throwing more breaking pitches and fewer fastballs. Have you any thoughts on this?
Keith Law: That’s true across baseball, right? The best teams are having their pitchers work more with offspeed stuff, contrary to maybe a century of pitching wisdom that you must work off or establish the fastball first, and every other pitch comes second.

Brian: Read an interesting positive report on Buddy Reed after some people saw him at the Futures game (mainly in BP). Has he evolved at all in a surprising way or is projection still the same?
Keith Law: Swing is a bit better. Defense was always plus. He’s old for high-A and that’s a good place to hit, so I need to see him produce in double-A to buy into the idea that he’s different.

Frank: Why did a reliever bring back a much better prospect in return as opposed to a starting 3B/SS who’s having the best year of his career in the bigs?
Keith Law: Two relievers, both with years of control remaining. Machado is a straight rental.

Marc (DC): Wheeler for Keibert Ruiz, who says no.
Keith Law: Dodgers laugh at that. Friedman/Zaidi rarely trade prospects of any significance. That they traded Diaz makes me wonder if there’s something we don’t know about the player.

Rick C: Do you not have any concern over Pache’s plate discipline?
Keith Law: Not in the least. He’s 19 in high-A.

Vin: If you were running the Giants, what would you do with Bumgarner? I can’t imagine they’d trade him, but it doesn’t seem like paying him $200 mil + on a so-so team is a good idea.
Keith Law: I would trade him. I don’t see any way they do.

Jon: re: Ocasio-Cortez. But I read on Twitter that you live in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Gentrified Brooklyn. All my utensils are hipsterling silver.

Jeffrey Lebowski: Can teams be/stay successful if they seem really bad at early-round drafting but are fairly dominant in the Latin American market? The city of Philadelphia awaits your answer with baited breath.
Keith Law: Yes. Look at my top 50 today: first five guys were all July 2nd signings.

Kirk: If Vlad Jr were at first base and not third, would he have been #1? Or would the less skilled position keep him at #2?
Keith Law: He can’t play third. There’s zero chance of that, between his footwork and his size already. The ranking reflects the probability that he’s a 1b or a DH, but he’s not anything else.

Harry: Will you be attending tomorrow’s Under Armour game?
Keith Law: I will indeed.

Joe: Keith, is there any scouting notes you can provide on the high school hitters from their home run derby over the weekend?
Keith Law: You can’t scout a HR derby. Especially not with the silly balls they were using.

Dan: The All-Star game was a perfect example, I think, of what baseball is becoming: long stretches of K’s & BB’s followed by a HR here and there and a couple scattered hits. The game feels way more boring than it has been at anytime in my life. Do you think this is true and what are some remedies?
Keith Law: I’m a broken record on this but raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Nick: Hi Keith. In regards to Bichette: Are you hesitant to think he stays at SS due to his arm or range? If it’s his range, do you think it’s becoming less important with all the shifting and defensive alignments? I mean we are in the new age of positionless baseball.
Keith Law: Still have to have range. You can shift guys but that doesn’t mean every ball is hit right at them.

John: The new Chvrches album doesn’t exactly break any new ground and the lyrics aren’t quite up to par with the last couple, but Graffiti slaps as much as any song of theirs, no?
Keith Law: No, I hated the record.

Jon: Do you ever mistakenly say would when you mean “wouldn’t”?
Keith Law: I meant to say that Luis Severino wouldn’t be a reliever.

wickethewok: Thoughts on the Trogdor Kickstarter? I watched the gameplay video, but I’m not sure if it would end up on the pile of games that are more fun in theory than practice.
Keith Law: I’ll check out the demo at Gen Con. It’s probably a great theme on a trivial game, but I’ll try it.

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to not sign Stewart?
Keith Law: Unless you know what they found in his physical, you can’t even ask that question, let alone answer it.

Dane Dunning: Was I close to the top 50? I’m a very high floor starter if you ask me.
Keith Law: You’re also out for the year with a partially torn elbow ligament that might still end up requiring surgery.

Nick: I know it’s only 100 AB’s in the GCL, but do you have any early reports on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: on the tools, yes, very positive, higher upside guy than Gimenez, who is obviously more advanced but doesn’t project to impact like Mauricio might.

Oscar: Why are so many people so quick to jump to “he was a kid and said something stupid” defense for Hader? When I was teenager, I didn’t come anywhere NEAR saying something as stupid or offensive as he did (and I was a really stupid kid). And he did it multiple times for Pete’s sake.
Keith Law: Right. Stupid is “Nickelback is the best band ever!” It’s not … that stuff Hader said. That’s much worse than merely stupid. These are opinions that can change, and I will gladly accept that he may no longer be that person, but he left all that shit up on his feed for anyone to find, too.

Dan: Maybe I don’t fully understand the projected/anticipated value, but it seems like the Orioles are getting amazing value for 2 months of Machado. Even if Diaz is just an average regular, he alone will far exceed the WAR of 2 months of Machado, no?
Keith Law: If he’s an average regular, sure. There’s always a chance he’s less than that. And the point is not a WAR to WAR comparison, but whether they maximized what the market would pay. Getting back more WAR than you traded does not mean you got the most value back you could have.

Jon: Do you think Manfred realized how jerk-ish he sounded when calling Trout out for not being cooperative in marketing?
Keith Law: I absolutely, firmly believe he did not realize it until after the fact. I disagree with the Commissioner on many things. I do not think he is a jerk, or means to sound like one.
Keith Law: Bud, on the other hand … i had my doubts.

Mike F: Love your writing and I think I just missed you at the Futures Game. I realize Nate Lowe was too old for High A but he seems to be putting up the same big numbers in AA. Any chance he is a emerging as a sleeper prospect?
Keith Law: More like a second-tier guy, has to hit at every level to prove it given his age and position, but I don’t see any reason he can’t/won’t at least produce enough to be a big leaguer.

Mark: What was your favorite dining experience while visiting Italy ?
Keith Law: The pinsa, a different type of pizza from the Lazio region, that I ate with my cousins at Pinsotto in Nervi, which is a neighborhood at the eastern end of Genoa.

Enrique: Thoughts on Elehuris Montero? He someone you think makes your top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Doubt that. Bat over glove right now, not sure where he plays. A prospect, though. Top 100 is still fairly selective.

EL: Could the Giants have a top-10 farm in a year or two?
Keith Law: Sure, if they trade Bumgarner and Posey.

Brian: What would be your guess on the trade value of Hedges? Could you bring back a top 100 prospect for him just based on his defense?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that at all.

Scott: I cant believe I am going to make this argument but here it goes. With a future outfield of Eaton, Robles, Soto, and Taylor are the Nats better off not throwing $300M-$400M at Harper if that means they will strapped for cash and will not be able to re-sign key assets like Rendon and his BFF Turner down the line. If I had the choice between Rendon, Turner, and maybe another solid SP vs Harper I think I would choose the former. Should the front office view it this way?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s quite reasonable, and I’m a huge believer in Harper and think he’s going to be worth $300MM+. He just doesn’t line up with the Nats’ needs.

Jeff: Adley Rutschman as an early 1-1 possibility next year or at least top 5?
Keith Law: I couldn’t say never, not with Bart going 2, but to me that is overly aggressive.

Andrew: Do you see Rockies parting with a Rodgers, McMahon, or Lambert at this deadline?
Keith Law: No to Rodgers or Lambert. The way they’ve handled McMahon makes me think they would part with him – but I have zero inside info on that.

Tom: Any market for Britton? He seems to have gained some velocity and regained his sink in his last few appearances.
Keith Law: Oh there’s a market – the question is whether the return will be acceptable. I’d still acquire him, but I’m not paying a Gleyber-plus price.

Jim: you’ve probably been asked this before so I’m sorry if I’m repeating it but do you see Brendan McKay sticking as a 2 way player or will/should he commit to one?
Keith Law: It’s actually in the top 50 today – I answered that exact question.

Beau: Is Huddson Potts for real? He’s putting up really strong numbers for a 19 yr old in High A.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, was one before the season too. Still very young, looks like he’s going to stay at third too.

Jake: Anyone in the top 50 that you hadn’t heard of two years ago?
Keith Law: Two years ago Wander Franco was 15. So the only way I could say I’d heard of him is that he has two brothers also named Wander Franco.

Jack: Is Adam Haseley the second best position player prospect that the Phillies have? (Behind Bohm)
Keith Law: Ortiz. Ortiz might actually be better than Bohm, but Bohm is playing third for now and I’ll give him a nod because he might stay there, while Ortiz is in LF but is going to be a 1b.
Keith Law: I really like Muzziotti too. He can really hit, and he can run. Not very disciplined at the plate, but for now, while he can hit everything, it’s OK.

KLaws over Replacement : Are more teams opting for quantity over quality regarding prospects in trades? It seems like it with machado trade being the latest example but it might just be confirmation bias since I’m still bitter the yankees didnt get Cole
Keith Law: If you can’t get quality, you go for quantity. The Orioles did not do badly here. I can’t emphasize that enough – I am not saying they fared poorly, or got robbed, or fucked up. That’s not right. I’m saying that the return would likely have been much higher in the offseason.

Rob: Mejia at 3b… just curious… 3b has been a black hole for years for the Padres. Could he be slightly below average there defensively?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’ll have the footwork or agility for it.

Marxist Lennonist: How would you compare the package the Dodgers gave up for Machado to the package the Dodgers gave up for Darvish last year? Machado is a much better player than Darvish, but the Dodgers didn’t seem to give up enough more talent to account for the difference.
Keith Law: Oh yeah, this is way more.
Keith Law: for Machado, I mean.

MIKEPCFL: So the Orioles say they are going to look into adding more scouting, using analytics and maybe getting into the international market. They should catch up to the rest of the league in how many years?
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, but Duquette’s contract is up, and if he’s not the GM next year then the words won’t amount to anything.

addoeh: Odds Kelenic is a top 10 prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: Not impossible. 10-15%.

JP: The first thing I’d tell my client is to simply delete their social media accounts and start mew ones from scratch. Simplest fix.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

Ryan: I’m getting errors so apologies if duplicate question. Is Knizner enough of a prospect that the Cards should consider moving Kelly?
Keith Law: If they’re not going to play Kelly any time soon, yes, because he’s ready, and Knizner, while not as good as Kelly, is also a good prospect.

Harris: You have Tatis above Vlad Jr. However, it seems the media hype is bigger for Vlad Jr. Why do you think this is?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. is great. His dad is a Hall of Famer. He has unbelievable power, which makes for good highlights. But Tatis is a shortstop with incredible skills on both sides of the ball.

Steve: Were Alonso or Gimenez close to making the top 50? Is defense the thing holding Alonso back from being top 50?
Keith Law: Alonso I answered above. Gimenez isn’t close. I don’t think there’s much ceiling there.

Larry: Where would Carter Stewart have been in your top 50?
Keith Law: Top 25-ish? But again, I have no idea what’s going on with him. I can only grade the player I saw in the spring, but I don’t know if there’s a health consideration.

Jeff: Could Adley Rutschman go 1-1? Any catcher ever picked first?
Keith Law: Steve Chilcott was the first overall pick in 1966. He never reached the majors. The second pick was Reggie Jackson.

Lilith: So is Iglesias now the premium reliever on the market? Who would be most interested?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t every contender be? I’m not being flippant – who wouldn’t be better of for having him?

Chris: Why do you have verdugo ranked so low?
Keith Law: I don’t. I think I have him in just the right spot, actually.

Jefferson K.: How bad would Pache’s bat have to be to not be a big league starter?
Keith Law: He’s going to be in the discussion for best defensive CF in the game when he gets there. You don’t have to hit much – and he’s going to be a 20-HR type – to be a starter when you’re saving 15+ runs a year with your glove too.

Greyson: Has Jake Rogers’ hitting tool regressed, has he gotten unlucky, or was there a major hole in his swing that he hasn’t patched? Why is he having so much trouble making contact?
Keith Law: He couldn’t hit last year – I saw him, wrote about it, then wrote it again when he was in the trade. Just an older guy in high-A beating up some bad pitching, but he couldn’t hit quality stuff at all.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you’ve said before that you have come around some to Austin Riley. I’m still confused about him though. How valuable is he really if he’s striking out this much?
Keith Law: The contact rate & bat speed remain the concerns. He’s done wonders with his body, become a legit third baseman, and has real power.

Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet?
Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon.

Joseph: Now that you have finished reading all the winners of the Pulitzer, do you have any other reading “challenges” you wish to pursue?
Keith Law: I have other lists I use when perusing bookstores – Booker winners, Hugo winners (just four left, and I own two), the top 100 lists the Guardian or Modern Library put out – but I’m done pushing myself through miserable reads just to finish checklists. I think.

Keith: Is Kyle Lewis still the Ms top prospect? Any observations on him from the futures game? Would he slide in the 100-150 range?
Keith Law: Might take Evan White over him.

Defensive Woe-rioles: Cedric Mullins has done nothing but produce the last 2 years in AA/AAA and looked good in ST but missed your top 50. Is he a top 100? Close?
Keith Law: Not top 100.

Slick Rick Hahn: You still holding any Lucas Gioltio stock as we enter the 2nd half or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: I’ve seen enough signs of progress in the last six weeks to still think he’s going to be a good big-league starter.

Ryan: How do you see Dakota Hudson moving forward? I’m hoping he’s closer to a back end of the rotation starter than to a Matt Bowman.
Keith Law: I feel like it’s about 90% reliever with him. Other scouts who were there Sunday all said the same to me – asking how he was a first rounder with that delivery and repertoire. (He was really good that spring in college, though.)

Joe: Shane Bieber isn’t even close to the top 100? Well Eric Longenhagen certainly disagrees. The guy sits at 93 with plus plus command and solid offspeed pitches.
Keith Law: OK, I’ll tell Eric you’re thinking of him. (And no, Bieber doesn’t “sit at 93.”)
Keith Law: Gotta run, phone call coming up right now. Thank you all for reading, for chatting, for coming to the book signing on Saturday or finding me on the concourse on Sunday. Quick reminder I’ll be in Acton, Massachusetts, at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore on Saturday, July 28th, at 1 pm, to talk Smart Baseball and sign your copies. Hope to see many of you then!