Kerala.

The family board game Kerala: The Way of the Elephant first came out in 2016, and I tried it for the first time at Gen Con 2017, jumping into a game of a few friends who needed a fourth player, but I hadn’t scored a copy until just last week. It’s a very light, fast-playing game with a decent amount of luck involved, but the way the turns go, every player is going to have to cope with the randomness in the same way, and ultimately the game plays out as a sort of competitive puzzling match where each player has to build out his/her set of tiles to maximize points and minimize penalties in the same way.

Each Kerala player gets two elephant tokens and a start tile, all in the same color, with five colors total in the game (the game plays two to five, but it’s best with at least three). On each turn, the start player draws one tile from the bag – 100 tiles if there are 5 players, slightly fewer for lower player counts – for each player, and then players select tiles from those drawn to add to their tableaus. You can only add a tile next to one of your two elephant tokens, and then move the token on to the new tile. Then the start player moves around the table, so over the course of the game you should pick first through last a roughly even number of times.

The catch in Kerala is in the scoring, of course. There are five colors of tiles, and you want to try to create one area for each color in your tableau – if you have two separate areas of green tiles, you will have to choose one to discard at game-end, losing two points for each tile you lose. (You can have two areas in your start color.) Most tiles have one to three elephant symbols on them, and you’ll score a point for each symbol on tiles you haven’t discarded in the end-game scoring. You also need to have at least one area of each of the five colors at game-end, or you lose five points for each color you don’t have.

There are three types of special tiles in the bag, and they can be extremely valuable or utterly useless, depending on when in the game they appear and what your board looks like. One allows you to relocate any tile you’ve already played to the table; otherwise a tile you’ve placed can’t be moved for the rest of the game. One allows you to jump either of your elephants to anywhere else on your tableau, which can be very useful if you’ve boxed one of your tokens into an inconvenient spot. And the third type has two colors on it, one covering most of the tile and one touching a single edge; you score five points at game-end if you match the edge color to the tile adjacent to it on that side.

Kerala allows you to stack tiles on top of each other rather than just adding to the edges of your tableau, which can help you connect areas or cover tiles that would lose you points, but can also cost you more points if you have to discard an entire stack – it’s two points per tile you discard, not just for the stack – and potentially traps your elephant somewhere that makes it hard to place more tiles. You can also pass twice per game, choosing not to take any available tiles; when you do so, you lay one of your two elephant tokens on its side. You do get one point at game-end for elephant tokens still standing, although it’s generally worth losing that bonus to pass on tiles that you can’t place without incurring the two-point penalty.

Rounds can easily take under a minute, and you can play a whole game of Kerala in about a half an hour, unless you have a player who hems and haws over every little choice (I know a few of these, but I’m not one). It’s listed for ages 8 and up and I see no reason an 8-year-old or even a child a bit younger couldn’t play this with a little advice from an adult – you’re matching colors and just lightly planning ahead, but there’s only so much strategy you can employ in a game that gives you no warning or way to predict what tiles might be available. Kerala is also a bit unusual in that the designer is a woman, Kirsten Hiese: Board game design is an extremely male-dominated field, and if you see a woman’s name in the credits, it’s usually either as co-designer or as the artist. My #1 game at Gen Con this year, Nyctophobia, was designed by a young woman, Catherine Stippell; Visitor at Blackwood Grove, another game I didn’t get to demo there, earned some positive chatter, and its lead designer is Mary Flanagan (also the lead on Monarch, a game with three listed designers, two of whom are women). But this is rare, and there’s no good reason for it, which to me is all the more reason to try to boost a game like Kerala, one that is fun and easy to bring out for the whole family to play, and that oh-by-the-way happens to be designed by a woman.

Stick to baseball, 8/25/18.

I had one Insider/ESPN+ piece this week, scouting notes on Tampa wunderkind Wander Franco and some Yankees & Rangers prospects, and held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I reviewed the gladiator-themed deckbuilding game Carthage for Paste this week. That’s the last of my pre-Gen Con reviews; I believe everything I review the rest of the year will either be from games I got/saw at Gen Con or that were released afterwards.

I’m about due for a fresh edition of my free email newsletter, to which you may wish to subscribe if you enjoy my ramblings.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 8/23/18.

My Insider/ESPN+ post on Wander Franco, Luis Medina, and other prospects is now up.

Keith Law: Tell my friends to call me; I ain’t accepting no letters. Klawchat.

tony: is it starting to become the time for the yanks to give up on greg bird for 2019? he’s been very bad. Bryce has been taking grounders at 1b…
Keith Law: I’ve never bought Bird as a 1b. I think he has value as a DH, low average with walks and power. Harper at 1b wastes his athleticism.

PhillyJake: Trevor Williams of the Pirates has a 3.44 ERA and a 4.33 FIP. Yet, with the Pirates being a notoriously bad fielding team, wouldn’t one expect the numbers to be reversed, in which the fielding would hurt his ERA and his FIP would be lower?
Keith Law: Not necessarily – one pitcher may happen to have good fortune or results with a bad defense. It usually evens out in larger samples but not always.

Michael: Is baseball in a better place than it was 10 years ago? 20 years ago? 50 years ago?
Keith Law: Way better place. It still has problems, and faces some ongoing challenges, but the sport as a whole is healthier than it’s ever been.

J.P.: Would Wander Franco be considered a top 25 prospect in all of baseball right now, or is that being too generous?
Keith Law: He was already top 20 in my midseason update.

Tom: Hi Keith – have you ever posted anything on Twitter (either a tweet you fired off quickly or a response to someone on there) that you regretted? I am not asking this with anything in mind by the way. I am legitimately curious.
Keith Law: Yep, absolutely. I’ve deleted some stuff right away. I’ve had a few tweets for which I later apologized, but often left up as a record of my mistake. There’s one in particular that still bothers me, even though I deleted it within 15 minutes. It was thoughtless, literally – I did not think about how it might upset someone specific that I know who had just been through a tragedy. I took it down.

Depressed Mets Fan: Could Pete get the call from Vegas next month? I need someone to get me excited again, and he could be the guy.
Keith Law: Alonso’s a solid prospect, but Mets fans who keep trying to insert him into the “call this guy up, dammit” conversation around Vlad Jr and Eloy are probably setting themselves up for disappointment.

Frank: Would you consider the Rays a top 5 system right now?
Keith Law: No, but I also won’t spend much time parsing systems until the winter.

Eric: Will we ever see a short season/rookie ball guy get awarded Milb POY in the experts’ eyes? Obviously someone like Franco would have a case in a year in which Vladdy Jr had graduated.
Keith Law: You’d be basing it on something like 50 games. That’s hard to support.

Frank: I’m guessing your review of Luis Medina will be less than favorable. Future RP?
Keith Law: Dude’s walking 11 per 9. Real hard to look at that and say “starter.”

ROY Speculator: Acuna or Soto?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely one of those two.

Nate: Late 2019 a realistic ETA on Pache? Assuming at that time he’s in CF and Acuna in a corner
Keith Law: Yep, that’s fair. Glove is ready now. Bat has come along quite well of late.

Ron: ETA of Lewis and Kiriloff to majors? Late 2019 or is that moving too fast? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’d put Lewis a year behind that. They’re separated by a year, and Lewis has more work to do on defense – if he stays at short at all – than Kirilloff, who is clearly a corner OF.

Ben: Is this the most impressive the Appy League as a whole has been, in your memory?
Keith Law: Two scouts told me they felt the league was weak this year. I only saw that one game.

D: Highly recommend the book American War by Omar El-Akkad. No question, just that rec.
Keith Law: Oof, cli-fi. That’s tough sledding for me. I’ll put it on my list, though.

addoeh: Has there ever been a more successful “witch hunt” than Mueller’s? Lots of folks in the President’s world that are made of wood and weigh the same as a duck.
Keith Law: Cohen even turned Gingrich into a newt. And he hasn’t gotten better.

Nate: The White Sox have had a brutal season with prospect injuries. Would you say they are still a top 5 system?
Keith Law: See above. I don’t like giving flash opinions like that when the question requires more thorough study.

Dave: It looks like the Mariners are good but not good enough. Also old with a bad farm system. How do they approach yet another rebuild?
Keith Law: My guess is they go for it again this winter, but I have no idea what their plan is. A rebuild there is going to take a long time, and they could be Houston-bad for several years.

Eric: How surprised are you that guys like Touki, Allard and Wilson got the call ahead of a more seasoned guy like Wright? Scratching my head at that one. Please enlighten me.
Keith Law: Wilson is the one that surprised me, because he was farthest away from 40-man status of any of those four.

Jeff: Keith – In the past, you’ve stated that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (and I assume by extension his staff) have not done a good job of developing young pitching. Does the success of Walker Buehler change that analysis at all? PS: Sorry for the re-post
Keith Law: That’s one guy, with elite stuff, so no, it doesn’t. Losing Josh Bard helped them, though.

Brian: How does Jordan Hicks – who routinely throws 102, 103 – have “only” 7.7 K/9? Is it lack of command with his secondary pitches (so guys sit on his fastball)? Lack of deception or movement? Something else? And related: do you think he CAN be a lights-out closer in the future?
Keith Law: It’s pretty straight and hitters do tend to pick it up enough to sit on it. He’s really athletic and I think still has plenty of room for growth in command and feel for using his offspeed.

Tim: Vidal Brujan went 3-3, 2 BB, 2 HRs, 4 R, 5 RBIs and 3 SB yesterday. Incredible game aside, what kind of prospect is the kid?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. Power may not be part of his game, but he can really hit and has legit OBP skills.

Dan: What did you think of Kopech’s cameo? (We can’t call it an outing, unfortunately. Damn you, Mother Nature.)
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Way too fastball-heavy.

Rob: How will it eventually shake out for the Rays between Franco, Adames, Fox, and Brujan
Keith Law: Adames is two solid years ahead of the rest of them. In the unlikely event that all four guys work out as we hope, they’ll figure it out, but the odds are that someone will fall off along the way due to injury or non-development. Of that group, Fox has the furthest to go, and I feel best about Franco, obviously.

Lee D: Turns out Trump didn’t even need to go to Moscow to collude with someone to influence the 2016 election. Will the Cohen confirmation of this collusion move the bar on the mid-terms, or are voters too entrenched in their camps?
Keith Law: I have seen very little indication that any Trump voters are the least bit affected by this news. The hope for those of us who want him out or at least stopped is that enough undecided or third-party voters show up in November to tip Congress blue.

Bobby: Not sure if you have watched him recently but do you think the Severino struggles are just a small sample size blip or is there perhaps an underlying cause (mechanical or physical)?
Keith Law: Fastball and slider have looked very flat on TV, for whatever that’s worth. It’s always possible that he’s hurt, but it’s also been 6-7 starts and he hasn’t said anything.

Bob: Issac Paredes is having a productive late season debut in AA at age 19. Do you think he has a chance to be a 3-4 WAR player at either 2B or 3B? If not, what’s keeping him from having that kid of upside?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I don’t think there’s much growth left there – he’s advanced for his age, but physically doesn’t have much projection.

Nate: Looks like Waters is starting to heat up after slow start following promotion (I know, I know, MiLB stats don’t matter). Is he a potential Top 100 guy in next year or so?
Keith Law: I think consensus within the industry is that he is.

Mac: It’s really disingenuous when you say GMO’s haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, in fact, you sound more like a lawyer. The science is far from settled. Do you ignore the unethical history of Monsanto, or the fact that dozens of countries (including France, Italy, Russia, Mexico, and Australia to name a few) have full or partial bans on GMO’s?
Keith Law: It’s not “disingenuous;” it is accurate. They haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, and the science is, at least, way more settled than you imply. Monsanto’s ethics do not affect GMO safety. Bans in other countries do not affect or reflect GMO safety. The U.S. banned absinthe for a century on bogus ‘evidence’ of its effects. We also still ban sodium cyclamate, an artificial sweetener that has the benefit of being heat-stable, despite a lack of evidence of toxicity or carcinogenicity. Meanwhile, there is still zero research showing GM foods are harmful; your body has no idea whether that C12H22O11 you just stirred into your coffee came from GM sugar cane or non-GM.

Bob: What’s keeping Colton Walker from being a top 100 prospect and projecting as an above average regular?
Keith Law: Questionable defense, and questions whether his bat will play outside of extreme hitter’s parks. All three teams for which he’s played play in very hitter-friendly environments.

dan: I apologize if you’ve answered this before (or wrote on it); have you read any CS Lewis?
Keith Law: I read the Lion, the Witch Hunt, and … no, wait, that’s not it. You know the one I mean. I read it maybe ten years ago and was bored by it.

KS: I know it’s early, but any reports on how Bohm looks?
Keith Law: I had unflattering reports from pro scouts who got their first looks at him in pro ball.

Jeffrey: Regarding a question from a few weeks ago: eliminate the Confederate flag, and the wedding you attend has the groom and groomsmen equipped with sidearms. Do you still walk out?
Keith Law: Hell yeah.

Oscar: Any info on the 2019 J2 class yet?
Keith Law: I don’t track or cover that.

Ron Dog: Will you be using the term “front hole” instead of vagina?
Keith Law: This was such a dumb non-troversy, pushed by the same dumb white nationalist sites. That term showed up in a sexual health manual that was aimed, in part, at trans women. The group that published it even clarified that they weren’t changing terminology or eschewing the use of the word ‘vagina,’ but why bother with facts when you want to own the libs?

Mike: Two things about your pizza list last week. 1) you should give Vecchias in Phoenixville a try if your up that way. 2) in the comments you mentioned not being a big fan of Pepe’s style. That’s the great pizza I grew up with. I’m curious, what would you call that style?
Keith Law: That’s New Haven style. It’s fine – I don’t dislike it – but it’s not my favorite.

Dmitry: Love your stick to baseball links! Would trading Andujar to Braves for pitching and signing Manny be possible for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible. At this point I’m not sure what pitching would be available and of interest to them.

Mike: Who has a better chance to overachieve and become an above average 2B – Shed Long or Kevin Kramer?
Keith Law: Kramer has the better chance. Long is maybe a 40 defender at second.

Brett: I know he is 25 and not really a prospect per se, but could Joshua Jackson have any success in the majors?
Keith Law: Trenton guy? I don’t think so.

Brandon Warne: As best as you can recall, who is the prospect who most exceeded your expectations while you’ve been doing this?
Keith Law: Altuve, probably. I did have him on a midseason top 50, but he’s a good example of someone even his own team underestimated. And how could you not? He’s a unicorn. A very little unicorn.

Dr. Bob: Wil Myers got hit in the face by a ground ball at 3b. Can someone remind me again why the Padres just had to sign him?
Keith Law: Or had to sign Hosmer to force Myers off first.

John: What deranged sociopath decided to “double stuff” the Oreo, a cookie that had known perfection since 1912? This is the abomination that should unify our opposition, as members of Planet Earth
Keith Law: I completely agree. The ratio of the original was perfect.

AJ: Hey Keith, flu shots for kids under 1 year old? Good or bad idea?
Keith Law: Minimum recommended age is 6 months.

John: What have your thoughts been on Mike Shildt so far?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few spots, but his best attribute is being not Mike Matheny. It seems like some of the younger guys who didn’t fare well under Matheny are faring better under Shildt. That could be noise, but given Matheny’s weird dislike of Kolten Wong, my gut says it’s signal.

Brandon Warne: Would you rather have Tyler Austin or Greg Bird going forward?
Keith Law: Bird. I have a soft spot for Austin but he’s never gotten all the way back after that lost year-plus with wrist injuries.

Brian: Heard on radio that Padres FO sees Urias as a Marco Scutaro comparison. Any thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s better than that.

Scott: You are higher than Bryse Wilson than most. What do you see him as a few years from now?
Keith Law: #3 starter with a chance to be a #2.

JR: Keith Law, Circa 2017 – writes Smart Baseball. Keith Law, Circa 2019, starts touting Wins, RBIs and Saves. Everyone wonders what happens. ESPN releases following statement: “We learned Keith Law has sometimes had significant memory issues in other situations where he had prior extensive knowledge of events. He has also periodically taken medicine that can negatively impair his memory, concentration & focus”
Keith Law: This is true, assuming rum counts as a medication.

Josh: Hey Keith, wondering if I could get your thoughts on Keegan Akin. His control has been a slight issue but he’s been killing it for Bowie all year. Is #3 starter a reasonable ceiling projection for him?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. I’ve never seen him throw with the velocity he supposedly can have.

Tim: Who is better in 5 years…Dom Smith or Peter Alonzo? How good are they?
Keith Law: I think Smith is the better hitter and way better 1b. Both are regulars.

Mike: Keith that change up kopech threw…if that’s what it is wow. I guess I don’t have a question but let’s just acknowledge how filthy that was. Thanks!
Keith Law: His secondary stuff is legit. He needs to throw it more.

John: What is Nolan Gormans ceiling?
Keith Law: Impact middle of the order bat. More power than OBP/contact skills.

John: How would you rank the young arms up with the Cardinals now? (Flaherty, Weaver, Gant, Gomber, Ponce De Leon, Hudson)
Keith Law: Flaherty is a full grade above any of the others. He’s the only surefire starter in the group.

RSO: Where would Victor Victor Mesa land in the prospect rankings once he signed with a major league team?
Keith Law: If that’s a top 100 question, the answer is probably not on it. I’ve heard elite defender, questions on the bat.

Frank: Now that 2018 playoffs appear out of reach, what do you think of Davey Martinez going forward? He appears to be in over his head, yet his players seem to like him. Is he a just a good bench coach that got hired for the wrong role? Or do you see him eventually becoming a good manager?
Keith Law: I think he might be in over his head, but I can’t blame their season on him. Too many injuries and underperformances to pin on the manager.

AJ: How would you handle the Touki, Bryse Wilson, Gohara, Fried group of pitchers when the Triple A season ends?
Keith Law: With all four on the 40-man, I’d have them all up in September even just for long relief work, maybe setting up some tandem starters. Good for development and for Anthopoulos et al to get some in-person looks to determine if all are part of the team’s future.

Juan : Do you think Cease will stick as a SP long term?
Keith Law: Yes, health permitting, I think he’s a definite starter.

Dave: K-Law, you’ve never steered me wrong on food recommendations. Any updates on where to eat in Charleston and/or Savannah? Husk is a given.
Keith Law: I have a long list of places in Charleston I want to hit, but haven’t been there in years.

Dr. Bob: Harrison Bader is leading NL rookies in WAR, mostly from defense. Didn’t have the splash of Acuna or Soto. ROY candidate?
Keith Law: No, because (I think I may have said this before) WAR can be misleading with players who are platooned, and don’t get as many AB against their weak side. I wouldn’t vote for Bader on the basis of AB he didn’t get over guys like Soto or Acuna who played every day.

Andrew: Is McNeil looking like a real option to be an above average 2nd baseman? Was his lack of profile in the minors more an injury issue than a talent issue? Seems to be a legit bat.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Mike: I’m a diehard Cubs fan but also not a garbage human so the trade for an unrepentant homophobe like Murphy gives me an ick-factor when rooting for my team. It’s not quite as gross as Chapman in 2016 but it’s still not good. I tend to think of Theo as far more progressive than a lot of baseball people but I guess not. Are there any teams who would actually not sign/trade for an guy who will help on the field but is backwards off of it?
Keith Law: Yes, there are several such teams, but they don’t talk about it. I had multiple GMs reach out to me before the draft to say they had taken Heimlich off their boards, but they didn’t want it publicized. I don’t blame them – better to do it than to talk about it. You don’t need publicity for doing the right thing.

dan: Out of Hudson, Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Weaver; who has a legit chance to be above-average starters/
Keith Law: None of them, to me. All back-end guys or relievers.

1986 Eric Davis: If the Astros were to call up Forrest Whitley, do you think he could be a dominant bullpen piece, and would he be eligible for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and apparently yes on the latter, which i had wrong earlier this season.

B Mand: If I remember correctly, you always believed Bogaerts had more power than he showed his first couple years in the majors. Is this type of season what you expected? 20-25 HRs and lots of doubles.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me while he was in A-ball I would have said 30 homers, so I guess not quite, but I’ll take it.

John: Corey Ray seems to have had a great season- has his stock risen?
Keith Law: I loved Ray in the draft, but he has not had a great season, not with a .330 OBP and near 30% strikeout rate. I’ve heard from scouts that he’s selling out to hit for more power, which is fine on its own, but can’t come at the expense of getting on base.

Tim: Has Amed Rosario disappointed you thus far/about righted you thus far/exceed your expectations thus far?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but not every prospect performs right away in the majors, and it’s not like the Mets are developing guys left and right on the big league club. (Still very bullish on their farm, though.)

BE: Odds that Kelenic ends up being the best player in this draft class ?
Keith Law: Nonzero. Maybe 10-15%? He’s pretty fucking good.

Larry: Nick Madrigal is slugging .325 thru 133 PA’s. Please talk me off the edge!
Keith Law: Did I answer this last week? I have nothing to tell you on this. I don’t think he’s going to have any power. He’s only slightly bigger than I am, and didn’t drive the ball much in college. He can really hit, and he’s a definite big leaguer, but there’s not going to be power there.

JR: I generally agree with you on most items (baseball and non-baseball). Therefore, when you tweet something I can usually predict what type of results you will get – mostly supportive with a decent mix of morons. However, I was blown away by all the negative replies you received from your tweet on minor leaguers deserving fair pay. Was extremely shocked at all the replies defending the current system.
Keith Law: The people who think minor leaguers are just “playing a game,” rather than working full-time hours for less than full-time pay, are totally out to lunch.

Kevin: Matt Manning is throwing the ball pretty well in Lakeland. Is he ready to start next season in AA?
Keith Law: Not really throwing that well. I believe he’ll start in AA and have trouble with both walks and homers.

Chuck: Any Tigers position player in the farm right now have a chance to be a legitimate star? Paredes? Meadows?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I could see 5-6 guys who look like potential 50s or 55s. Cameron is one. I really like Castro, whom they just got from Cleveland.

Jack: How big is the gap really between someone like Bo Bichette and someone like Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Very big. And I like Lux.

Trevor: What’s the correct dose of colloidal silver to recover from CIA nanites? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Hang on, that was cutting edge last week, but medicine moves faster than that, my man.

Matt: What is wrong with Dylan Bundy?
Keith Law: He’s been overworked the last two years and it shows up in the results. His old fastball is gone, and he’s homer-prone as a result. I know O’s fans were mad I was pessimistic about him when he came back from elbow and shoulder surgeries, but we all had plenty of reason to doubt his durability. Had he been used more carefully, or switched to a relief role, maybe the situation would be different today.

Jackson: Would you rather have penne vodka or penne bologonese ?
Keith Law: Penne alla vodka.

John: I know you recently did a piece on Adam Haseley, but can you give me your biggest positive from watching him and your biggest negative?
Keith Law: I have no positive to report from that look. The negatives are in the piece.

Jerry: Historically, if the economy is strong, incumbents win. No matter how corrupt our leaders are, they don’t get voted out unless people feel it in their bank accounts.
Keith Law: Absolutely correct. But many people are feeling it in the wallet. The top end isn’t, but people at the lower end of the economy aren’t seeing wage gains to keep up with the cost of living, and some are losing their jobs as companies continue to automate or outsource.

Ben: Does Salt Lake City have a reputation as an extreme hitter’s park? I’ve always been curious. I know we’re not Denver high, but still well over 4000′.
Keith Law: Yes, it does.

Pops: Would Alex Verdugo help the struggling Dodgers offense?
Keith Law: He could. Not sure where he’d fit, but in the abstract I think his bat would help. Or he could pitch the 7th.

Pete: Rosario has been heating up lately. What do you think his line looks like next year, assuming you’re still buying on him
Keith Law: Sorry, if I didn’t answer that above, I’m still buying.

Chuck: What level does Mize start with next year? Does it make it to big club? Even worth it considering Tigers are a ways away still?
Keith Law: I would start him in AA. He’s going to obliterate A-ball hitters. Challenge him.

Chris: Kelenic and Woods-Richardson look solid in their first year. Very early but as a Mets fan I’m intrigued and happy with their recent drafts.
Keith Law: I’ve heard W-R is throwing harder and with a better CH than he had pre-draft. Very promising. Tramuta and company have done a very good job the last few years. (Full disclosure: I worked with Tramuta in Toronto for several years.)

CJ: How do you view Kapler’s rookie season as manager? The results are thus far exceeding expectations (recent skid notwithstanding), but there seem to be lots of questions about his approach.
Keith Law: What questions are there? I haven’t heard those or noticed any myself. I’ve only seen and heard good things.

Donald T: Keith Law…will you be my lawyer?
Keith Law: Yes, but could you please talk more directly into this pen?

Adam: I asked you a question on Twitter, and three days later there are still people in my mentions arguing about racism and anti-vaxxers. Send help.
Keith Law: That one anti-vaxxer dude seemed like the lunatic fringe ousted him for being “a bit much.”

Andy: Thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Tearing up the Pioneer League and showing plus plate discipline
Keith Law: Grand Junction is 4600 feet above sea level. Everyone seems to hit there. We’ll get more of a sense next year – even though Asheville is a good hitter’s park, the league as a whole is less hitter-friendly.

Harry: FWIW I thought the jab at Daniel Murphy the other day was a little outdated. He met with Billy Bean, and walked back his previous statements.
Keith Law: He didn’t walk them back, though. If he had, I wouldn’t have brought it up. He never retracted or corrected what he said. And his comments would make the clubhouse a hostile work environment for a gay player.

Chris: If anyone was ever doubting that big-college athletics isn’t about generating a lot of money and protecting sources of income at all costs, look no further than the charade that is THE Ohio State University suspension of Urban Meyer.
Keith Law: What a joke. I would love to see OSU students do something about this – stop going to games? – but it’s not going to matter as long as the TV checks roll in.

John: What is Vlad Jr’s recourse, or any other MiLB player who is kept in the minors an unfair amount of time?
Keith Law: A grievance. I do hope he files one.
Keith Law: We need a test case.

Luke: I’ve tried to rewrite this thee times so it doesn’t sound like I’m being a jerk, but I can’t make it work, so apologies if the tone sounds harsh, but are you able to turn off the scouting an analytical part of your mind and watch a game for fun or are you constantly picking up on mechanical flaws or the like when you watch a game?
Keith Law: It’s work. I can’t be at a game and not be working.

Dave: If you had to do it all over again, wouldn’t your analysis of Sale as a prospect be the exact same? If there are 100 prospects with his build and delivery, isn’t the odds that 90+ of them will flame out or never make it into a rotation?
Keith Law: Yes. Post-Sale prospects who’ve reminded me of him have all ended up in relief or gotten hurt. He’s the big exception – never really hurt till this year, and went from a 40 slider to arguably a 70 after signing.
Keith Law: Goldschmidt is a better example of a guy who changed how I think. One, I just try to see guys like him, rather than relying so much on others’ opinions, because he’s not someone who fares well on a traditional scouting report unless you goose the hit tool grade. Two, I’m looking for guys with that sort of swing and skill set now. That’s why I was more bullish on Rhys Hoskins as a prospect than I might have been given his age & pedigree.

Jackson: Ever tempted to place sports bets ?
Keith Law: No. I like my money.

Joe: Can you share your opinions on the new Insider/ESPN+ package and how/if it effects what you do?
Keith Law: I think it’s good news for me, and for readers. You get more stuff for the same price. I get more readers, but am still behind the subscriber wall, which has various benefits for me. It will not change the content I provide for you.

Chris: If you were the future Mets GM would you be tempted in the offseason to trade all of deGrom (3-4 top guys), Thor (2-3 top guys) and Wheeler (1-2 top guys) for the combined 8 or so top prospects and associated depth you should get back in total? Could yield a faster rebuild of say 1-2 years versus a full 3-4 year cycle teardown ala Astros, Reds, Tigers, etc.
Keith Law: Yep. Trade them all. Keep only the youngest guys – Conforto, Rosario, Smith, etc.

Pramit: I’ve seen that Baseball America and Jim Bowden ranked the Blue Jays system as top 3 systems in the league. Other than Vlad and Bo, are there any other impact prospects that are close? Alford has taken a step back, Reid-Foley could be a reliever and the jury is still out on Biggio. I wonder if Vlad being in the system is making the overall org appear deeper than it is.
Keith Law: I said in a recent chat that I do not find that ranking credible. I still don’t. It is not a top 3 system. BA is generally very good, and this is part of what they do; I just strongly disagree on what I would consider objective grounds. The other guy doesn’t cover prospects at all.

Melting Icebergs: Keith, there are an equal number of scientist that believe global warming is NOT man made and simply cyclical. Why are they wrong and the scientist you believe in right?
Keith Law: No there aren’t.

Scott B.: With 21 yr old Devers at 3rd, do the Sox eventually move Dalbec or Chablis to 1st?
Keith Law: Dalbec has made himself pretty good over there at third; I wouldn’t rush to move him yet. Chablis’ glove is pretty flinty.

Brandon Warne: Would you listen to a podcast that combines murder and comedy?
Keith Law: That depends on who’s getting murdered.

Evan: Alex Scherff is working his way back from an intercoastal injury. He looked pretty good before going on the DL. Does he stick as a starter and is he anything more than just a guy?
Keith Law: Starter. High risk with upside.

Jonathon: Thoughts on josh naylor
Keith Law: Can certainly hit and has big time power. Not sold on LF.

Rob: Hey Keith, I think I remember a while back you saying that you weren’t a fan of Deafheaven’s recent stuff. Did you give their newest a listen? Thanks.
Keith Law: One song. Started it a month ago and it’s still playing.

Tim: Remember when Gabe Kapler was about to be fired? Good times.
Keith Law: Yep. There are some Philly sports flacks who just blue themselves that first week.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think the literature canon (Great Books) is still relative today, especially for younger readers? Shakespeare, Milton, dead white males…
Keith Law: I do, but I wouldn’t recommend any students read just those authors. That literature influenced writers for centuries after, and still influences writers today, so I think they remain essential. And prior to 1800 there ain’t much besides dead white males.

Andy: Any thoughts on speaking to your kids about the President. I hear so many parents say awful things about him in front of their kids. While likely deserved, I was raised to treat people with respect regardless and feel it’s a poor example to set.
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Hudson Potts has had a monster year in High-A. He’s now in AA at age 19 and seems to get better each month. Is he the Padres 3rd baseman of the future?
Keith Law: I would say there’s a good chance of that, depending on his glove first and his OBP skills second. Still very young and improving quickly. Maybe 40% chance he’s the 3b of the future.

Newt: Does your abstention from red meat include bacon, glorious bacon?
Keith Law: I’m not abstaining from read meat – I just don’t eat beef any more, and haven’t eaten lamb in ages because I found I really didn’t like it.

Craig : Hey Keith , Thanks for the Chat . Do you think Vlad’s future is at 1B in regards to his body type , if so what grade defensively would you give him there
Keith Law: I think he’s a future DH. When I was on TSN1050 a week or so ago, I said he could be David Ortiz. I think any Blue Jays fan would take that.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Andres Munoz is throwing triple digit heaters in AA at age 19. How good can he actually be?
Keith Law: Pure reliever but I’ve seen it and it’s very real. One-inning guy in any role. Different from Patino, who has a chance to start even though he’s not much bigger than Munoz.

Jason: Prominent BP scout clocked Andres Gimenez 3.8 to first yesterday? Have you heard about this big speed jump? What do you make of him in general?
Keith Law: Bad reading or jailbreak.

JD: Fleet’s Landing in Charleston was and is a treat.
Keith Law: Good to know.

Chris: Mickey Callaway has been bad. I thought his saving graces would be bullpen mgmt and talent development but his handling of both (forgetting to double-switch, batting BP pitchers, Dom Smith) have been outright awful.
Keith Law: Yeah, I haven’t been impressed in year one. Didn’t have managerial experience, right?

Danny: Any chance you heard what’s keeping Everson Peirera from playing in Pulaski?
Keith Law: I was told he’s hurt, but not with what. Seigler is also out due to a concussion.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: What do you think of Buddy Reed? He had a big year in High-A after making some adjustments to his swing this past offseason. He’s struggled so far in his limited playing time in AA.
Keith Law: Swing has improved a little, mostly in terms of using his lower half. Still not buying the bat completely, but with his range in CF he doesn’t have to hit a ton to have some value.

Dr. Bob: RE: Bader. That’s why we come to you. Makes sense. He’s started against 70 RH starters but 34 LH starters. Since I don’t think LH starters make up a third of the league, that is a quasi-platoon.
Keith Law: Last I looked he had a disproportionate % of his PA against lefties, and was killing them (as he should). But while sitting him vs tough RHB may be a good developmental move (or not … I’m saying hypothetically), it shouldn’t count to his credit in awards voting.

Terry (Wash, DC): Are you still a MoviePass subscriber? You haven’t posted many movie reviews lately, and I wondered what you’ve been watching.
Keith Law: I cancelled my subscription when they changed the rules. But there’s also just one movie out I really want to see, Black Klansman. The others are things I could see but could easily wait to stream.

Pat: Another arm injury for Hunter Harvey. Is he just a cross off at this point?
Keith Law: Yeah, just check back in when he’s healthy for a stretch. It sucks.

Evan: Just curious what bag you use to carry all your scouting stuff? It would be neat to see a “whats in Keith’s bag” sorta post.
Keith Law: It’s a camera bag from CaseLogic. Radar gun fits well in it, and I have room for other stuff I might need at a game or on the plane.

APK: Justin Dunn and Franklyn Kilome’s numbers have been really promising at Binghamton so far. Do you see either of them turning into above average major Leaguers?
Keith Law: Dunn yes. Kilome less so.

David: As a fan, would you be more excited to see an 11-10 game or a 1-0 pitchers dual?
Keith Law: The pitcher’s duel. Not even close.

SC: Have to disagree about trading all of the Mets starters. How do you trade deGrom when he’s having an unreal season? Figure he’s at peak value? I’d keep him and Wheeler and entertain offers for Thor. Have to set some sort of middle ground. Also have to see what you’ve got in the system and who can fill needs from other teams
Keith Law: He is at peak value. And his value declines as he approaches free agency.

Steve: Better Naylor long term, Josh or Bo?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Bo. Loved him in the draft, thought he was a top 15 talent, and if he can’t catch – he’s catching now in the AZL, where he’s raking – he’ll be good at third base.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another round. Enjoy your weekends!

The Ninth Hour.

Alice McDermott’s The Ninth Hour earned her a spot on the shortlist for the National Book Critics Circle award last year, which went to Joan Silber’s Improvement, and as far as I can remember that’s the only reason I put in a hold request for it at my library – that and the fact that it was barely over 200 pages, meaning I could knock it out in a few days. It was certainly fast, taking me less than 48 hours to finish, but it’s a literary anachronism, a facsimile of the types of novels that used to win these awards 50 years ago – perhaps the type of book people think they’re supposed to like rather than one that they should.

The Ninth Hour begins with a suicide, significant in a book drenched with Catholic dogma and practices, as Jim decides to exercise some agency in his own life by ending it, leaving behind his pregnant wife, Anne, who in turn is taken in by a local cloister of charity-minded nuns. Anne gives birth to Sally, who spends her formative years with her mother as the latter works in the laundry of the convent, soaking up the secular aspects of the nuns’ faith and eventually toying with the idea of entering a convent herself. Anne, meanwhile, is left a young widow when barely out of her girlhood, and is, unsurprisingly, neither satisfied with her lot in life nor willing to sit back and accept it, eventually taking up with a man who is married to an invalid who is in turn tended by the nuns on their daily rounds.

McDermott’s one trick in this novel is setting up the eventual intersection of these different threads in sufficiently organic fashion to make it credible, at least up until what I’ll call Sally’s last decision, the one truly inexplicable detail (and one I feel like I’ve seen in other works as well). The affair between Anne and her paramour feels natural, as does Sally’s attraction to the vocation of the women who have all helped to raise and educate her. The discovery of the affair itself is faintly comic but, again, entirely fits within the structures of these characters’ lives, and if anything McDermott undersells any scandalous aspects to it, perhaps because her order of nuns is, on the whole, far more progressive than the Catholic Church was at any point in the 20th century.

Those nuns, however, are almost ciphers on the page; McDermott’s attempts to give them distinct characters fall flat, as their defining attributes are neither significant nor strong enough to sear their identities on the reader. By the end of the book, I sort of knew the differences between Sister Jeanne and Sister Lucy, but not enough to keep any of the sisters in my memory once I’d hit the final page. Anne is the most interesting and well-rounded character while she’s at the novel’s center, but once Sally grows up and decides she’s interested in becoming a nun, she takes over as the protagonist, and she’s quite a bit less interesting than her mother is. The longest chapter, describing Sally’s train ride from New York to Chicago to join a convent there on a trial basis, would have worked very well as a standalone short story, where Sally is the observer and pivot point but her personality, which appears just in flashes, is secondary to the cast of eccentrics around her, notably the crass woman who sits next to her (and has a vocabulary inapposite to the time period). It even ends on the right note for the conclusion of a short story about a woman on her first journey out of her birth city, considering embarking on a new and permanent direction in her life. It’s too bad the rest of the novel couldn’t live up to that chapter; so little happens and the characters are so bland that many of the chapters in The Ninth Hour are just plain boring.

I’ve read all five of those NBCC fiction finalists, and this was clearly at the bottom. I would have given the prize to Exit West rather than Improvement, with The Ministry Of Utmost Happiness third and Sing, Unburied, Sing (which won the National Book Award) fourth. The Ninth Hour is the only one of the five I’d say is below the recommendation threshold, however; it’s such an inconsequential story that illuminates nothing about us, its characters, our society, or even questions about faith, the meaning of life, or dealing with death. I’m not sure what the critics in the NBCC saw in the book to give it a nod over the vastly superior Lincoln in the Bardo for the shortlist.

Next up: Kory Stamper’s Word By Word: The Secret Life of Dictionaries.

Rebel Talent.

I heard Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino on a recent episode of the Hidden Brain podcast, discussing her new book Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules at Work and in Life and her thesis that ‘rebels’ are more successful innovators in the workplace and that bending or breaking some societal mores can lead to greater happiness as well as productivity. That concept is certainly an appealing one – who doesn’t like the idea of pushing boundaries and then proving to the world that you were right to do so? – and in cases where Gino can back up her insights with data, rather than merely with anecdotes, it’s compelling. The book varies too much between those two poles, however, with so much of it supported by individual observations, that I wasn’t entirely convinced that her hypothesis was as generalizable as she wants it to be.

Much of Rebel Talent is built around Gino’s profile of and visits with Italian celebrity chef Massimo Bottura, whose restaurant, Osteria Francescana, has received three Michelin Stars and appears regularly on lists of the best restaurants in the world. (It also shows up in one episode of season two of Master of None.) Bottura is the exemplar of the rebel in Gino’s definition; working within the tradition-bound world of Italian cuisine, Bottura has introduced the sort of deconstructive, modern approach to cooking popularized by el bulli (where he worked for a summer) and Noma, turning classical Italian preparations inside out, often with a gently mocking tone to the new versions. Gino cooked in Bottura’s kitchen for a night and devotes a fair amount of time to describing a few dishes, such as one called “the crunchy part of the lasagna,” a specific dish that gives the diner the almost-burned, crispy edges that form around the top edges of that baked pasta dish, which many people (myself included) will tell you it’s the best part. As someone who’s generally interested in food and cooking, I enjoyed these passages on their own merits, although the narrative would drag when Gino would shift from talking about Bottura’s approaches to food to his approaches to managing his staff (still relevant to her premise, but come on, I’m here for the cooking ideas).

There are long parts of Rebel Talent where Gino deftly defends her arguments with a blend of such anecdotes and with real data. The chapter “Uncomfortable Truths” looks at the value of diversity in the workplace and in life, that there is hard evidence that diverse teams are more productive and more creative, while people are often happier living or working in diverse environments. (Diversity in these instances refers to demographic diversity, rather than diversity of educational or employment backgrounds.) A team of all white men will tend to be less productive or creative than a comparable team with even one person who is nonwhite or non-male. Such additions can also help to reduce discriminatory attitudes on the parts of the dominant subgroup in the environment. It’s the most compelling individual argument anywhere in the book – if you want teams that innovate, and even go beyond the norms of your workplace, then mix it up by hiring a diverse employee base and putting people together in heterogenous teams.

However, too much of the book leans very heavily on a handful of individual examples, and it was hard for me to accept the generalization of those specific cases to the workplace or society as a whole. Gino does a masterful job of retelling the heroic efforts of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, who was the pilot of US Airways flight 1549 when birds disabled both of the plane’s engines, forcing an emergency landing that Sully decided in a matter of seconds he had to make on the Hudson River. Did he make this decision because he was, in Gino’s terms, a ‘rebel?’ I think it’s just as easy to argue that he made this decision based on years of experience, a calm demeanor in the face of unimaginable pressure, and the preparations afforded to him by his training and the in-flight checklist that, at least, he and his co-pilot could begin to use before time ran short and Captain Sullenberger had to made an immediate decision to land in the water rather than trying to get to a runway in New Jersey. There’s a similarly stirring anecdote Gino uses multiple times about then Portland Trailblazers coach Mo Cheeks coming to the aid of a young girl who panicked while singing the national anthem before a playoff game and forgot the words. Cheeks realized she was in trouble, walked over to her, said “it’s all right,” and started singing with her so she could pick back up where she’d trailed off, with the entire arena joining in. It’s a beautiful and emotional story, but was Cheeks a rebel, or just a dad and a good human being, helping a child who needed someone?

Rebel Talent is a bit of a swerve from the books in the business genre I usually read, which tend to be more data-driven and grounded in disciplines like cognitive psychology; it’s written for the mass audience, clearly, and thus lighter in prose and tone. It gave me plenty of food for thought, pun intended, and is an encouragement to be bolder and more innovative in any of my various endeavors. I’m just not sure Gino sufficiently supported her broader points, beyond these one-off individuals who rebelled and succeeded (where many others have likely failed) to justify her bigger claims about the value of rebels at work and in life.

Next up: Kory Stamper’s Word by Word: The Secret Life of Dictionaries.

Pachinko.

Min Jin Lee’s second novel, Pachinko, earned broad acclaim last year, including a spot on the shortlist for the National Book Award (which it lost to Jesmyn Ward’s Sing, Unburied, Sing) and on the New York Times‘ list of the ten best books of last year, all of which brought it to my attention in the spring when I was looking at potential winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, which went to the markedly inferior Less. Lee’s novel manages to combine a totally unfamiliar aspect of world history and culture – the outsider status of Koreans living in Japan during and after the latter’s colonization of the Korean peninsula – with the familiar epic structure of classic novels of the British tradition. If Dickens or Eliot had written a novel about Koreans living as part of the underclass in Japan, it would probably look a lot like Pachinko.

Pachinko is a type of arcade game very popular in Japan, similar to pinball, and often used for gambling. Pachinko parlors are mostly owned by Koreans, and it was one of the few industries open to ethnic Koreans in Japan in the wake of colonization, which Lee uses as the backdrop for her novel. The book covers four generations of a Korean family from their beginnings in Busan, a city at the southern tip of the peninsula, through their settlement in Yokohama, Japan, and multiple tragedies borne largely of the disadvantages and obstacles they face as permanent outsiders in their adopted homeland.

The novel moves quickly to get us to Sunja, a teenaged Korean daughter of a widowed innkeeper, when she becomes pregnant by a Korean man, Honsu, who lives in Japan and only later reveals that he has a wife and children in Osaka whom he won’t leave or divorce. Sunja marries a Korean Presbyterian missionary, who moves her to Japan, where the family faces ongoing discrimination that moves from the overt to the subtle over the course of the novel’s fifty-odd years, where even educational achievement isn’t enough to push her descendants past the invisible barriers of anti-Korean prejudice in Japanese society. The source of Hansu’s wealth and power isn’t revealed until later in the book, but even his influence can’t break down all of these walls, and the pachinko industry becomes the source of refuge and only path to wealth or success for several members of the family. Through the narrative, Lee works in the mistreatment of Koreans prior to and during World War II, including political prisoners and forced laborers as well as off-screen references to “comfort women,” before the tone shifts to one of superficial acceptance and tacit discrimination in the wake of the war.

The overarching theme of Pachinko is one of displacement, as some of the core characters still yearn to return to Korea, thinking of it as home, while others want to think of Japan as home – especially Sunja’s younger son and grandson, both born in the archipelago – but aren’t fully accepted by Japanese society. Koreans in the novel form a cultural enclave, surrounded by Japanese people and their economic and social hierarchies, unable to fully assimilate even if they learn the language fluently and attend Japanese schools. Any upward mobility is stunted by formal and informal obstacles, like a plant trying to grow into ground that is too hard for its roots to penetrate. This leads to a sense of anomie in some characters, like Sunja’s younger son Mozasu, who ends up in the pachinko business primarily because it’s that or jail, while others, like her son with Hansu, Noa, can never reconcile their two identities and come to awful ends.

Although female agency is another theme that looms large throughout the novel, Noa seems to best encapsulate Lee’s points about identity and isolation. He’s an ethnic Korean, but grows up believing his adoptive father, the Presbyterian missionary, is his biological father, and finds out far later that his real father is the businessman of dubious methods, Hansu, destroying any sense of self he’d built up through his own hard work in school and in jobs where he’s underpaid because he’s Korean. Lee writes more from the perspectives of the women in the novel, mostly Sunja, but Noa’s story after the revelation about his parentage could have used even more elucidation, as he disappears from the novel for many years of book time, leaving me with questions about the continued effects of his mixed-up identity.

I ended up getting Pachinko as a digital loan from my library after putting in a hold back in February, and when the book showed up, I was in the middle of something else, and had just eight days to finish it before the loan expired, which would be aggressive for a book of over 450 pages … but it reads so quickly that I finished it in four days. Lee’s prose absolutely flies, even with plenty of descriptive, scene-setting language, and the book is largely driven by dialogue, so the pace rarely slows. I have other, minor quibbles, such as wishing for more depth on certain characters, but Pachinko is so ambitious and exposes a world that was totally opaque or outright unknown to me beforehand that it seems petty to dwell on them. I would still rank it below Lincoln in the Bardo among 2017 novels, but it was more than worthy of any of the annual fiction awards for which it was considered.

Next up: Another 2017 novel, Alice McDermott’s The Ninth Hour.

Stick to baseball, 8/18/18.

My biggest piece this week was my annual Gen Con wrap-up for Paste, covering the 20 best games I got to play, demo, or just watch at the convention, and discussing pretty much everything else I saw too.

For Insiders, I wrote up what Shane Baz’s inclusion means for the Chris Archer trade, with scouting notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and some pitching prospects. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I sent out the latest edition of my free email newsletter on Friday. Feel free to sign up for more of my ramblings, plus links to all of my content.

And now, the links…

Deep Work.

I am very prone to distractions, especially when it comes to sitting down at the computer to get work done. The obvious one is social media – I need to be on Twitter and Facebook for work purposes, but I spend far more time on those sites, especially the former, than I could justify rationally – which soaks up far too much of both my time and attention each day. But there are far more distractions around me, even though I don’t work in an office. Email is a constant intrusion, coupled with the feeling that you have to respond to certain emails immediately. Texts are the same, with an even greater sense of urgency. But there are also more mundane aspects of quotidian life at home that interfere with my ability to work – seemingly innocuous things like stopping to make coffee or to grab the mail, or to do a little cleaning, or to go get the mail, or to start prepping dinner. I’m aware on some level that all of these things make me less productive than I could be, but it takes a conscious effort to surmount them.

Cal Newport has some advice for me and anyone else who suffers from the noises & distractions from anything good in his new book Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World, a quick read that offers some hard advice that sounds easy to follow but in practice is hard to implement. He argues that deep work is an entirely different mode of thinking, the kind that we tend to disdain today because it doesn’t ‘look’ productive, but in fact is far more conducive to the kinds of productivity that matter: you’ll get more done, and what you do will be better. Newport even emphasizes that this is the kind of work that’s going to matter more in our modern, knowledge-driven economy, where merely being good at repetitive but shallow tasks isn’t enough to give you a sustainable career.

Deep Work has two sections, and you could easily just skip the first and read the second if you’re more focused on advice and a checklist for becoming a deep worker than in his arguments why deep work matters (although I’d still recommend reading the whole thing). That first part explains why you should realign your working habits around deep work: that it’s valuable in the marketplace, that few people can do it well, and that the cognitive processes around it produce work that is meaningful for the person doing it. Your brain functions differently in ‘deep work’ modes, and the more time you spend practicing it, the better you’ll get, producing more work and higher quality work as a result. He delves into the idea of ‘deliberate practice,’ popularized by Malcolm Gladwell and then roundly mocked by critics, going back to the professor, K. Anders Ericsson, who coined the phrase based on research into how we learn difficult material and what separates experts in certain fields from others working in those areas.

Newport also talks distractions, explaining why they’re a real problem in part one and recommending avoiding them in part two. Open offices come in for particular criticism, because they create more noises and more opportunities for co-workers to interrupt any attempts at deep work, all under the guise of creating “more opportunities for collaboration” (which, he later points out, may not even be accurate). The increased desire across industries to measure employee productivity – what Newport calls “the metric black hole” – also contributes to the fight against deep work, driving employees to do what will improve their metrics, not what will be more productive. And there are huge social obstacles to deep work, because most of us naturally want to be responsive, collegial, and, worst of all, available for colleagues when they appear to need our attention.

Part two of Deep Work is the checklist, four global rules, each with various corollaries, for becoming a deep worker: practice working deeply, embrace boredom, quit social media, and schedule your day to sequester and minimize shallow work. Newport is really prescribing an entirely new way to approach your job, one that will probably feel highly restrictive and type A to most people. But even in less than two weeks of dabbling in some of his recommendations, I can vouch for everything I’ve tried. There’s no question he’s right about social media; I used to keep Twitter and my public Facebook page open in browser tabs all day, so I could keep an eye on relevant news and respond to reader questions, but I’ve stopped doing that entirely. I’m writing this post with my browser closed entirely, and have reserved any questions or links I’ll need to finish this review until I’ve completed the body text and am almost ready to post it. I’ve started cordoning off email time, realizing that virtually nothing in my email related to work is actually urgent unless it’s an editor’s question about something I’ve filed – and by that point, my period of deep work has paused because I’ve finished a column or post and moved on to the next task. I’ve long encouraged readers to post baseball questions in my chats, where I can address the entire audience at once, rather than via private messages like email or Facebook, where my answer goes to just one person. (I also wouldn’t have time to answer all the baseball questions I get through email or other services, but if you message me with questions about mental health, I will answer.) Somehow I managed to write a book without very good work habits, judging by the standards Newport lays out in Deep Work, but if I do get the chance to write another one, I’ll feel much better armed to do it now that I’ve read his advice.

Next up: Min Jin Lee’s 2017 novel Pachinko.

The English Patient.

I’d never read Michael Ondaatje’s 1992 novel The English Patient until late May of this year, despite recommendations from multiple people, its status as a Booker Prize winner, and its adaptation into an Oscar-winning film (that I still have not seen). This past week, a public poll voted it the best Booker winner of all time (the so-called “Golden Booker”), choosing it from five candidates, one from each decade of the award’s history, but I tweeted that I wouldn’t even put it top five among the 14 Booker winners I’ve read; my favorite is Kazuo Ishiguro’s The Remains of the Day, which wasn’t on the shortlist. While I do like Ondaatje’s writing, I couldn’t possibly have felt less connected to a story than I did to this one, about four people holed up in a damaged Italian villa in the wake of World War II.

The patient of the title might be English, and is certainly modeled after the Hungarian count Count László de Almásy, although the Count didn’t crash and burn in the Sahara as this patient did. The fictional version is burned over nearly his entire body and has no hope of recovery. He’s cared for by the shell-shocked nurse Hana, and they’re joined by the Sikh sapper Kip and the Canadian thief Caravaggio, with their four stories told in intertwined narratives, with the patient’s recollections of his affair with a friend’s wife and eventual betrayal forming the book’s foundation.

Although the patient’s story sits at the center of the book, Kip’s narrative is both more interesting and more insightful, and I think a book about him would have held my attention and my empathy much more than the distant plot about Almásy did. Kip is Indian-born and goes against the nationalist leanings of his brother when he volunteers to become a sapper in the British army, joining an all-white unit that keeps him at arm’s length even when he proves skilled at his job. He is effectively drafted into a more elite group headed by Lord Suffolk (also based on a real person), who trains the best sappers in disposing of new types of bombs, but this brief honeymoon of belonging ends abruptly and cuts Kip adrift, landing him eventually into an abortive affair with Hana. The way that ends is one of the novel’s strongest moments, as an external event bursts the bubble in which Kip has been hiding for some time – the same one that Hana refuses to leave even though the war in Europe has ended.

I suppose part of the popular appeal of both the book and the film is that the patient’s recollections of his affair with Katherine Clifton, portrayed in the film by Kristin Scott-Thomas, depict some sort of great romance – especially founded as it was on a deep intellectual connection – but that scarcely comes across in the pages of the book, between Ondaatje’s fuzzy descriptions, probably to emphasize that we are reading the muddled memories of a gravely injured man, and the absence of any depth to Katherine’s character.

Perhaps the movie develops her character more, or fleshes out other parts of the story, but while I respect Ondaatje’s dedication to historical accuracy in borrowing these personages and his deft writing, I felt utterly detached from this story from start to finish.

Next up: Min Jin Lee’s 2017 novel Pachinko.

Klawchat 8/16/18.

My wrap-up of all the games I saw at Gen Con earlier this month is now up over at Paste. For Insiders, I wrote up how Shane Baz affects the Archer trade balance, plus notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers from the Phillies, Rockies, and Cleveland systems.

Also, I’m co-hosting another family board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in Wilmington on Friday night, August 17th, starting at 5:30 pm. You can bring your own games or just bring yourselves, as last time there were probably two dozen games there between the library’s collection and games others brought. All ages are welcome and there will be kids there.

Keith Law: Damn the dark, damn the light. Klawchat.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.
Keith Law: No. Hate ’em.

Ryan: do you see the braves trading any prospects this winter for a veteran? if so whose most likely to go?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do what they just did for Duvall – trade from the surplus, the edges of the system, not the core prospects. You keep the Toukis and the Goharas and the Sorokas (if healthy), but trade the Sims.

addoeh: Which is better; to have more hits than Sadaharu Oh or mad hits like Rod Carew?
Keith Law: Neither. Better to be clutch like Piazza.

Kevin: How would you currently rank the White Sox farm system? Have the injuries impacted their overall ranking? It seems they have been hurt more than prior years.
Keith Law: Tough year for them, still near the top in terms of high-upside talent, only graduated one major guy (I think?) from my list.

JG: Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and hit everywhere else. I don’t think he’s a star but I believe I’ve been consistent the last few years in saying he’s a regular, and someone who’ll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

Sean: Have you had a chance to review the international signing rule changes? I have not had a chance to do a deep dive into the new international signing rules. It appears though that these rules just really acknowledge the fact that the majority of those players sign prior to their J2 date. From my point of view nothing is really about to change, do you see the same thing?
Keith Law: Yes, that was my quick take too. Formalizing some of that process can create more transparency, and I think it will help players too, since teams could always try to back out of oral agreements. The rules allowing teams to help players travel for workouts are more important, because there are still players in Venezuela, but going there to scout them is too dangerous.

Brian: Is there a major league future for Mickey Moniak?
Keith Law: I don’t see much of one right now.

Ian: What is a good solution to getting rid of purposeful HBPs? Consequences for the manager? Fine an owner every time a pitcher gets suspended for a beanball? The MLB has to realize that a potential season ending injury for a rising star is not a great idea…
Keith Law: A suspension of more than five games for a pitcher would be great. Urena should be suspended for at least 10 games … I’d say something in the 15-20 range.

Rodney: Great pizza list! I recommend Black Sheep the next time you’re in Minneapolis (equal or better than Pizzeria Lola, imo), and Lovely’s Fifty Fifty when you’re checking out Apizza Scholls in Portland.

On to less important stuff. Should John Gant stay in the rotation when Wacha returns?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t think so. He’s basically a replacement level starter; Wacha should be more than that.

Eric, Washington DC: I am comparing the stats of Scherzer and Nola on ESPN and I’m confused to see that Nola’s WAR is 7.4 compared to 7.0 for Scherzer. Scherzer has better numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, Ks, Innings) so I’m wondering why he’s behind Nola. Any ideas?
Keith Law: Yes, Baseball Reference makes some small adjustments such as considering the caliber of competition the pitchers faced. They explain all of that in more detail here than I could do justice to in a chat.

Jaipur rules: What do you think would be a better 2019 plan for the Cubs? Sign Machado to play 3rd, move Baez to SS and Bryant to LF and look to trade Russell/Schwarber. Or sign Harper to play OF, keep the Infield as is and potentially trade Schwarber. It seems like both offensively and defensively Option A might be better?
Keith Law: Option A is better than B, but is either really necessary? I feel like their offense is fine, and they still have some surplus there, but they still need and will continue to need help on the pitching side, rotation and bullpen.

Brian: You mentioned on Twitter the need for people to stop scouting based on stat line. That left me wondering If you’ve got a player who isn’t old for his level, what accounts for a guy who isn’t a prospect posting a huge stat line? Is it a fluke? A guy hitting mistakes that won’t get made at higher levels, etc?
Keith Law: It can be a fluke. It can absolutely be a guy hitting minor-league caliber stuff, or getting away with things that better pitchers – with better stuff or command – will exploit.

Bighen: If Mets hire a new Gm and force him (or her) to try to compete in 2019 what is their best path? They’re not signing machado, Harper etc and improving around the margins on a ~75 win team probably not getting it done. That being said the last two months have made it look like they have 3 aces. Or an ace and two top end SP anyway. Hard to see how they do it wo the will to spend.
Keith Law: I agree. If I were asked to take that job, I’d be talking three-year plans, not one-year. You have talent on the ML roster, and talent coming, but not enough to turn this team into a contender (without a LOT of luck/good health) next year unless you’re spending.

Grover: I’ve heard you express your doubts as to whether or not Julio Urias can recapture any semblance of what made him a top prospect: is your concern more with whether or not he will ever get his stuff back, or durability because of the nature of his shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher who’s had this surgery has truly come back; some never return, and those who have have returned with reduced stuff. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs saw Urias in Arizona and reported that his stuff was indeed down.

Lyle: Earlier this season Eric Filia was traded for Roenis Elias but the Red Sox sent Filia back for a failed physical. Since then, Filia has basically played every day for the M’s AA team. So…what kind of injury causes a player to fail a physical for one team and play every day for another?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, we had Dustin McGowan in our system, and knew he had a partial tear of his UCL, but he pitched through it without issue for about four years until it finally snapped. He would have failed a review of medicals in a trade, but he was able to pitch.

Grover: Is there a stat to track who has hit the most rally killing homers?
Keith Law: Someone get Elias on this, stat.

tmh: Do you see Jesus Luzardo as a #2 or more of a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: More mid-rotation until the breaking ball improves.

Murphy: What would you do to discourage pitchers from intentionally throwing at hitters?
Keith Law: If you suspend the pitchers long enough, it will end the practice.

redsoxfan: Dio you still think Mitch Keller has ace potential? Last night start in AAA was encouraging but has struggled. Has hje developed a passable 3rd pitch yet?
Keith Law: Potential, yes. Third pitch is not there, however, and at some point it becomes foolish to assume it will be.

clb: Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?
Keith Law: Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don’t think top 15, not yet.

michael: do you think the giants farm system is getting on track and maybe even on the upswing? bart / hjelle seemed to be reasonable picks based upon your pre-draft rankings. their international signings (like luciano) seemed to be good. Are we another solid draft away from potentially being an above average farm system?
Keith Law: No, a few drafts from that. I didn’t like Bart at pick 2. Hjelle I did. They’ve had a down year with existing prospects, too.

CD: In the last chat you mentioned that Richie Martin is not a good defensive SS. That’s the first time I’ve heard that. One of the main reasons Oakland drafted him in the first round was because of his defensive ability. How/why did he regress since being drafted?
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was good as a junior at Florida. He was fast, but erratic, and his hands weren’t great.

Neil: Lewis Thorpe’s stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?
Keith Law: I only saw him in DC and it wasn’t a promising outing. I’d be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn’t quite there.

Randy: Are you gonna try to see Luis Robert before the season ends? Hopefully he doesn’t get injured the day before you go like the last couple times!
Keith Law: They don’t come near me again. I’m hoping he ends up in Fall League.

Harry: What do you say to those so-called traditionalists who defend Urena
Keith Law: Go watch cockfighting instead. More your speed.

Jeremy: How annoyed are you of vlad Jr being in the minors ? Nothing bother me more in baseball
Keith Law: It’s kind of ridiculous now. I was trying to eyeball how many wins they’d lost by having Morales etc as their DHs this season instead of Vlad. Three felt about right.

Warbiscuit: Odds of you going back to Auburn in the spring to scout Will Holland and/or Davis Daniel?
Keith Law: Slim. Sorry.

Ryan: Have you heard anything about the Mets Kingsport roster? Very early in their careers, but there seems to be a lot of potential talent on that roster.
Keith Law: Yes. Kelenic’s on another tear now.

John: Will DeGrom set a new standard for worst W-L to win a Cy Young?
Keith Law: I would enjoy that and its aftermath very much. My colleague Michael Wilbon had some rather outdated thoughts on the subject the other day.

Rob: So Will Myers at 3rd did not look “terrible” from my eye. With all the outfield guys they’re trying out and Hosmer (sadly) locked in, would you spend the off season trying this out? As far as I can tell 3b is one of the few places the Padres don’t have elite prospects coming.
Keith Law: Potts is pretty damn good. And one or more of those shortstops will move to third eventually. But for next year, moving Myers back to 3b would be a great idea.

Joe: If you’re the Braves, do you put Touki in the big league rotation and let him go or do you use him kind of like D. Price in his rookie year out of the bullpen to limit his innings?
Keith Law: Break him in slowly now, as a long reliever, but he’s in the rotation in April for me.

Andre: Was at Bryse Wilson’s start last night in Gwinnett. He was filthy from start to finish. Is he a DUDE/what’s his potential?
Keith Law: Was on my midyear top 50. I’m a huge fan. Great pick in the 4th round, great work by player development to clean him up too.

john: How much should we be concerned about Faedos drop in speed and dominancy? Seems like he went from a 2-3 guy to back end guy.
Keith Law: I was a little bearish on him in the draft – I saw a slider-heavy guy without a fastball that was good enough to make him a potential 2.

DevilExpos: Thoughts on Brandon Lowe? Is there anyone else you like in the Rays system that isn’t as heralded as Jesus/McKay and could breakout soon like Lowe did this season? Solak? Brock Burke? Joe McCarthy?
Keith Law: I do like McCarthy, but his upside is probably capped if he doesn’t gain power somewhere. Ronaldo Hernandez might be a star. I’m still a Lucius Fox fan. Michael Mercado has looked really good despite so-so results.

Justin : The Boston Globe is getting threats for running an editorial claiming a free press is not the enemy. Are these the end times?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: Did the Acuna HBP appear intentional to you?
Keith Law: 100%.

Kosmo: Love your work Keith! Maybe as a rangers fan I’m desperate for one of our young pitchers to turn out good, but joe palumbo looks great coming off the injury. Do you think he has mid-rotation potential?
Keith Law: I would just barely take the under on this.

Dan: Is Kyle Tucker going to be okay?
Keith Law: He’s 21. Yes.

Mike: Keith, the Braves just signed up to be a high-visibility sponsor for a fundraising event for the Republican candidate for governor. He is virulently anti-immigrant. How do you think the Braves players feel about that?
Keith Law: He’s not just anti-immigrant. He has a history of voter suppression and targeting minority groups that try to encourage people of color to vote.

RB: What’s going on with Anderson Espinoza? Do you think he can regain form post-injury, whenever that is?
Keith Law: We’ll see next year. I don’t think he was expected to see the mound in games this year.

Lark11: Is there any hope for Robert Stephenson? He’s issuing 4-pitch walks to opposing pitchers and missing his location on some pitches by 3 feet. Is there any lingering basis on which to hope for improvements in control/command? If not, is there any role in which he can actually provide positive production? Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s one of the bigger disappointments for me in the last few years because the stuff has been so damn good but he has made zero progress in three seasons. Putting him in the bullpen probably isn’t going to solve anything, either; this isn’t about lacking stuff to turn over a lineup, but about not throwing enough strikes.

Devon: Keith, do you think Tampa Bay will take its time developing Wander Franco? Would a monster performance force their hand or will they stick to org. philosophy?
Keith Law: I’ll predict he’s in the majors before he turns 20.

Deke: Understand if you can’t answer this, but listening to you guest-hosting for Buster recently, is it difficult for you to do some of the ad live-reads? I felt like I was listening to a pod person hearing you speak highly of certain hot dogs and certain beers.
Keith Law: I was trying very hard not to crack up while reading those. Especially the one for a mass-market beer I wouldn’t drink if you paid me.

Chris: Any GM candidates you’d like to see get a look this offseason?
Keith Law: The Mets are supposedly going to interview my old mentor from Toronto, Tony Lacava, who would be a superb choice, and would fit the alleged ‘old-school’ preference while giving them someone who was also very quick to adapt to the analytical side too. I’ve also seen other names I would recommend on their potential interview list – Bobby Heck, Jared Porter, Ben Cherington, any of whom would be a very good hire.

JP: what would be your AL MVP ballot as of today?
Keith Law: Betts, Ramirez, Trout.

Scott: With LeMahieu about to be a free agent and Story looking like a regular for now, would you shift Brendan Rodgers over to 2B next season or is Garrett Hampson someone you think is worth giving an every day opportunity to in the meantime?
Keith Law: I prefer Rodgers at short to Hampson. There are scouts who disagree and scouts (more) who think both end up at other positions.

Matt: Outside of recent draft picks, are there any rules regarding PTBNLs? If team A wanted a specific young major leaguer but team B wanted to keep him for a current playoff run, could they agree on him and complete the trade after the season?
Keith Law: You can’t rent a player like that. There are rules on PTBNLs. I don’t have them handy right now.

JP: does Greg Bird have the skills (and health) to be an above-average 1B?
Keith Law: Defensively? No shot.

Jack: So what did you see from Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: My Insider post on him will be up shortly. I already filed it.

Brian: Bukauskus has been pitching well this season. Was it just a matter of him getting healthy?
Keith Law: He was recovering from a serious car accident.

J: Obviously a SSS since the trade, but could the Tigers have stolen a player in Wili Castro?
Keith Law: I raved about him in my writeup of the deal.

Dave: These chat are too fun, Keith. You’re gonna have to be knocked down.
Keith Law: Dammit, Jose.

Nick Taylor: Book recommendation: “There There” by Tommy Orange. Gritty realist novel of linked stories, a la Jennifer Egan’s “Goon Squad,” with a cast of Native American characters living in Oakland. Climax is a huge powwow (festival) on the field at the Coliseum. Best novel I’ve read this year. Watch this guy Orange…
Keith Law: Thank you! Hadn’t heard of this.

Van Skike: Should the Reds give Siri a September call-up this year?
Keith Law: I’m more interested in how they call him up. “Hey, Siri!”
Keith Law: (Also: No. He’s not hitting in AA.)

The Bilmo: Very reasonable pizza list! Many I’ve been to, many more I’m looking forward to. Assuming you’ve enjoyed Pepe’s white clam, have you tried Zuppardi’s white clam in neabry West Haven? Many (not me) say it beats Pepe’s. It’s awfully good (the clams are shucked to order), and the fact that there can even be a Pepe’s/Zuppardi’s debate makes it noteworthy.
Keith Law: I have tried Pepe’s white clam pizza and don’t like it at all. I don’t think clams belong on pizza. Or anywhere with cheese involved.

J: Better chance of rebounding/becoming a good starter? Faedo or Burrows?
Keith Law: I think Burrows is a high probability starter.

Lark11: Honest question: to this point in his career, is Mike Trout the best baseball player in the history of the sport?
Keith Law: I would say so. I tend to favor contemporary players over past ones, because the level of competition today is so much higher. The best player in the world in 1910 had a lower bar to clear than the best player today.

leprekhan: Who is the Braves’ prospect whose stock has gone up the most in your eyes? What players have seen their stock go down the most?
Keith Law: Drew Waters had the biggest turnaround, after looking bad last summer, now hitting well enough to get promoted midseason.

Jeff: Jarred Kelenic and Shervyen Newton are basically the same age at the same level. Newton has show so far at his previous levels his ability to get on base . I understand that at this age part of a prospects ranking is a projection, I was just wondering what makes Kelenic such a better prospect than Newton and if you are high in Newton at all?
Keith Law: Different tool sets. I do like Newton.

Rick: Are Eloy and Vlad Jr, both going to be held down until mid-April 2019 at this point? What other reason is there for them not to be up right now?
Keith Law: No real reason other than service time.

Brett: Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).
Keith Law: No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don’t hit.

Devon: Keith, has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Ruiz is 19. Really?

Ryan: If Brice Turang never develops more than some modest gap power, what is his ceiling as a player overall? Is there enough else there to sustain a 4-win player?
Keith Law: I question whether he’ll hit enough to be a 4-win player.

Dan: What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?
Keith Law: If you think he can start, he’s a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there’s a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

WarBiscuit: Does the minor league lifestyle play a deterrent role in parents sending their kids to college ball, particularly if they don’t get a good draft selection or offer? Obviously I still think the Brady Aikens, Carter Stewart and JT Ginn’s of the world should take the money and run. As a student of a major DI baseball school, the college does provide free food that’s actually nutritious to the baseball players and can at least sleep in comfortable beds, where as the lack of pay can prevent a nutritious diet and and can cut into your signing bonus which can turn into 5 figures after taxes. It may be better on a baseball development perspective depending on the coach for those reasons. Obviously if it’s Rice/UVA/Stanford it is not as good, but if it’s Florida/Vandy, it may be better. I think MLB teams should pay minimum wage for the season’s length or at least provide better diets to the minor league grinders. I’m sure you have more to say on this.
Keith Law: I do hear this occasionally from parents and often from college coaches and even players who went to college – the minor league life ain’t fun, but college ball can be. I get that. If college coaches as a whole did a better job of developing players – using pitchers responsibly, teaching hitters to hit instead of fucking bunting in the motherfucking first inning i’m not angry – I’d be more of an advocate for college. Some schools, like the ones you named (Florida, Vandy), do a better job than others. I think the individual school matters tremendously. And MLB doing an end run around the courts to avoid paying a living wage to minor leaguers was a disgrace.

Junior : Billy Eppler has completely change the Angels farm system to a top ten system. Do you agree?
Keith Law: He’s changed it to an above-average system.

Kwame : Who (in an ideal/optimized world) plays first base for the Mets next year. Also can you post the link you used to put on twitter that outlines fallacies?
Keith Law: Smith should probably play every day from here on out, with the plan to transition to Alonso at some point next spring … if Alonso’s defense is good enough. I don’t think it is right now. Yourlogicalfallacyis.com is the site you want.

Larry: Madrigal slugging .340 in the low minors. Please tell me the 4th pick in the country has more than 30 power.
Keith Law: I thought he had 35 power so … yes?

Zac: Please tell me the Jays will call up Vlad Jr when rosters expand?
Keith Law: I don’t think they will.

JP: is there no worthy pizza in Boston? Regina’s?
Keith Law: Overrated. Never had Santarpios, which gets some raves, and which many locals will tell you is good if you’re drunk and it’s 2 am.

Zach D: Ever have your child throw a board game at you cause you beat her? I mean, that’s how you make your competition feel uncomfortable or something
Keith Law: We just rapid-fire meeples at each other.

andy: OK. I get it. Small sample size. But should I be encouraged by Grant Lavigne’s performance in the Pioneer League (a hitter’s league, for sure). I know you wrote that he might have had a higher pre-draft grade if he were from a warm weather state. Has his performance backed that up further?
Keith Law: Go look at past seasons for the Grand Junction club, and how many hitters have gone bananas there, even at young ages, but never panned out. I wouldn’t really alter my view on Lavigne until he’s at sea level.

Nick: Garver Alston said that he could see Dakota Chalmers being an “organization changer.” Is there any reason to believe there could be any truth to that or is that just him blowing smoke?
Keith Law: I strongly disagree with that assessment. Also he’s out with TJ so he’s not changing anything just yet.

Kingpin: And a follow up…should Lulen Baker be at a higher level considering he is a college hitter in Low-A?
Keith Law: He’s in the Appy, no? Gorman belongs there, Baker I’d have moved up by now.

Josh : Taylor Ward seemed to come out of nowhere, wasn’t on any top 100 lists yet the buzz appears to be high on him…. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Didn’t belong on top 100 lists. Was old for AA, raked in a hitter’s park in AAA. Has power, fair hit tool, unclear position.

Adam: Have you come around on Camargo’s bat at all? If he is this player is he a regular?
Keith Law: He isn’t this player.

Adam: I had never seen Touki pitch before his debut. How on earth does that curve break that way from that arm slot?!?!
Keith Law: He’s always had an insanely loose arm, and great arm speed. He’s among the most fun pitching prospects to watch because he can do so many things so easily.

Chuck: Was David Bote on any scouts radar as any kind of a prospect? Sure, it’s a SSS, but you have to love how he plays the game and what he brings offensively and defensively. I guess he’s a reminder that scouting isn’t an exact science.
Keith Law: He was #12 on my Cubs ranking preseason, so I guess he’s a reminder that you should read the stuff I write?

Tracy: Have you read any Philip K Dick books? I don’t recall any mentions of his works from you.
Keith Law: I’ve read sixteen of his novels.

Jax : So Profar’s had a pretty good year. He should put up even better numbers going forward, right?
Keith Law: He’s had a solid year. I still feel like there’s much more in there.

Nate: If you felt comfortable projecting ke’bryan Hayes to hit 20 homers would he be a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Top 10 is awfully steep. I can only put ten guys in there.

Aaron C.: Your pizza list — and the discussion it produced — was fun! I remember a few years ago, you ranked rap songs. Have you done any other “Dish” lists that I can peruse to waste time at work today?
Keith Law: Novels, back in 2013ish. I need to update that. Then annual rankings of songs etc.

Jaime : Remember that NYT cartoon about how freedom of speech works? Yeah, the firing of James Gunn was Disney (and everyone) letting him know his jokes were trash. It’s not a good look for you when you defend him.
Keith Law: I did not defend him. I thought his jokes were trash.

Guest: more likely to have better career: ian happ or hunter renfroe; jake junis or jake faria
Keith Law: Happ. faria.

Oscar: Monsanto has to pay 289 million for roundup giving a man cancer, yet we’re supposed to believe GMO’s are safe based on the studies they fund, and ignore their questionable history to boot? Count me out.
Keith Law: Monsanto may have to pay a man something because 12 idiots believed a lawyer’s claims that Roundup gave the man cancer, despite a lack of any scientific evidence to support this. Cancer doesn’t even need a cause. The jury system is utterly useless for adjudicating questions of science.

Joe: Keith, thank you for the write-up of Gen Con games. I asked you in a chat years ago about a game that would work well for someone who was blind. My wife Martha lost most of her vision when she was 20 years old. She loves to play games but most games don’t work well for her. We’re looking forward to trying your No. 1 recommendation.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. Nyctophobia should be in Targets any day now – mine had a space for it on the shelf but no copies as of last week.

Richard: Kevin Smith seemingly came out of nowhere and is raking in Lansing. Do you see a future regular SS in him?
Keith Law: I do not. He also hasn’t been in Lansing since early June, and isn’t hitting that well in Dunedin (a more appropriate spot for a 22-year-old college product).

Jax : Were you surprised that Atlanta didn’t dangle Fried at the deadline? And do you think they will this winter? I think he could be really good but it’s difficult to see how he fits into their rotation.
Keith Law: He’d be in that Sims group I mentioned earlier (I know they dealt Sims). Fried pitches in someone’s rotation, but I don’t think he’s top six on their depth chart.

Danny: I live across the street from Franny’s last location before they closed and agree with your take. Please try Emily’s in Crown Heights next time you’re in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Lot of recs for Emily’s.

Karl: Are you buying that Glasnow just needed a change of scenery? Or perhaps too soon to judge?
Keith Law: Too soon to judge. Also entirely possible that he needed a new voice to help him find a delivery he can repeat.

Jesse B: If the 2018 MLB Draft was held today, who would be drafted much higher? Gorman?
Keith Law: You’re dealing with tiny samples for all these guys. I don’t think a ton would change.

Josh : Is Gavin Lux a potential all-star MI?
Keith Law: Potential, yes.

Quincy: I recently discovered (and loved!) your 100 favorite novels list. I wondered if you could comment on why none of Solzhenitsyn’s or Tolstoy’s works made your list. Not a fan personally, or do you see their work as less than excellent?
Keith Law: Don’t think Tolstoy’s works hold up that well at all – the reputation Russian novels have for excessive length and meandering plots falls primarily on him. I’ve only read one of Solzhenitsyn’s novels, Ivan Denisovich, and didn’t love it.
Keith Law: I’ve read almost 1000 novels now, so making my top 100 would mean something would have to be in the top 10% of everything I’ve read.

Jax : Do you think Giolito needs an off-season to get his shit straight? He’s at least looked decent recently and his velo is back up to 93-95.
Keith Law: He’s looked better recently outside of that one outing vs the Yanks (and giving up a grand slam to Stanton is … well, forgivable?). But overall it’s not the year I expected, especially since all reports in March had him repeating his delivery and commanding the ball in a way he hasn’t really all season.

Ron: A question I just thought of because work is boring me: Who is the best team in the NL? My initial reaction is the Cubs, but the pitching staff and uncertainty with Bryant’s shoulder makes me nervous. Arizona might be the top choice, right?
Keith Law: Gut answer is the Cubs. I won’t argue Arizona.

Anthony: How much of a long term cause for concern is Hunter Greene’s UCL injury
Keith Law: It depends a bit on how serious the sprain is. At this point, they’re acting like it will only require rest. But a sprain typically means a tear, even a tiny one. (It can sometimes mean the ligament has been stretched to the point of causing pain or discomfort, but it’s a fine line between that and the beginnings of a UCL tear.)

Greg: Harrison Bader outperforming your expectation? Baseball Reference at 3.5 WAR now
Keith Law: WAR doesn’t do that well with part-time players (which he was for much of the season) when they’re used for platoon purposes. He still has nearly 40% of his PA vs LHP, whom he has killed, but has been way below average, probably near replacement level, vs RHP.

Greg: I happened to be at an event where Chvrches played recently, and I got a quick second to meet Lauren Mayberry. Even though I avoid meeting my idols out of fear of disappoint, I couldn’t pass this one up, and she was maybe the nicest, most polite person I’ve ever encountered and I have no question but just wanted to say that there are still good things in the world.
Keith Law: That’s awesome to hear although unsurprising given her writings and the interviews I’ve seen. Also I’m a fan because I’m pretty sure she’s shorter than I am.

Jake: Kyle Isbel has been raking since entering Pro ball, as a KC fan, is this a guy I should be excited about?
Keith Law: I’m on it, but next year in high-A will be a real test of what he is.

John: I saw Schilling tear into Olberman the other day regarding his Monday Night Baseball broadcasting job. I actually enjoyed the broadcast very much and wish Kieth were on more often? Do you know Olberman at all?
Keith Law: I’d say that’s a badge of honor for Keith. I have talked to Keith a few times, and was on his show several times a few years ago. He’s off the charts intelligent and really knows his shit about baseball – and we still disagree on stuff. Also, if you ask ESPN people who worked with him, they all marvel at how fast he could absorb material and how long he could speak extemporaneously on air.

Matt: Not going overboard, but did you see this kind of year from Andujar? He never seemed to project to this, but ignored he can maintain this he is a solid regular.
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular, trending towards a 55 rather than a 50. Had him on my top 100 in the winter and argued that they didn’t need to acquire a 3b because he could do it.

Mike : What major-league team’s record that you are most surprised at this year ?
Keith Law: Phillies on the up side, Nats on the down side.

Sam: How would you rank all of the Mission Impossible movies?
Keith Law: I saw the first one and stopped.

Ryan: Does Fredy Peralta ever develop enough command to be an above average big league starter?
Keith Law: It’s not command – it’s stuff.

Tracy: Also, another book question. Have you read GK Chesterton? Father Brown books?
Keith Law: Only The Man Who Was Thursday, which is weird and probably not that great as a novel but still kind of wonderful for its strangeness.

mickey: what’s the first thing I should try cooking in my new sous vide device?
Keith Law: Serious Eats’ chicken thighs recipe. Easy and fantastic.

Mike: This may be a very personal question, and if so, I apologize. Do you send your daughter to public school in Delaware, or private school? No judgement either way, just curious.
Keith Law: Charter school. I would not pay for private school. Delaware does underfund its public schools, unfortunately – my taxes are shockingly low – and we discovered that class sizes were too big in our local elementary school.

Zach: See you finally made it to Spacca Napoli. Thoughts? (That was me who created the pizza map)
Keith Law: Yes, two years ago, I think – the day Schilling was fired by ESPN for the transphobic meme. I nearly missed my flight because the news broke and my phone blew up. The meal was amazing, though. Would go back in a heartbeat.

Jake: Keith, give me an under the radar name to watch for among KC prospects.
Keith Law: I don’t have one for you. You know the good ones. Below that, it drops off quickly.

Rick C: Who would be your NL MVP right now? The top three position players are all at 5.0 fWAR, though deGrom, Scherzer, and Corbin are ahead of them.
Keith Law: deGrom.

Royals Fan in DC: Which Wilmington Blue Rock has improved his MLB prospect status the most this season? We Royals fans need a glimmer of hope.
Keith Law: Khalil Lee but he’s long gone from Wilmington. The team now is void of prospects. Next year we could have Matias, Melendez, Pratto, Isbel, and the five college starters they just drafted.

Dr. Bob: I am in complete agreement on the idiocy of relying on pitcher wins and losses. However, I was reminded of Steve Carlton going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games in his first of four Cy Young seasons. The 27 wins represented 46% of the Phillies wins. Flawed stat, but that’s quite a season.
Keith Law: I agree. And pitcher wins, while always flawed, were slightly less so when pitchers were able to work much deeper into games. But now they throw a lot harder, and relievers throw harder than that, and we know teams are more likely to win by pulling the starter after 3x through the order (or sooner).

Nick: Next big competitive advantage a team will figure out and l leverage in player development ? My guess is it’s gotta be health related.
Keith Law: I was asked that by a writer 12+ years ago, in my last spring with Toronto. That was my answer then and it’s still my answer now.

Ryan: Would you be able to name a beer or 2 that you would consider your favorite?
Keith Law: Evolution Lot #3 IPA.

HugoZ: Wouldn’t it be wiser to simply state that every mlb team should avoid the perception that it’s favoring a particular candidate,whatever his or her ideology, so as to avoid alienating part of the fan base?
Keith Law: I mostly agree with this. However, if one of your candidates is a white supremacist, that’s where you make the exception. (And there are quite a few running this November.)

Brett: Not a question, but as a direct result of followin your chats and your work, my outfield in fantasy baseball next year (Keeper league) will be Acuna, Soto and Jimenez.
Keith Law: That seems good.

Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.

John: Is the whole, “It’s the water” thing true when it comes to why New York pizza is awesome and Delaware pizza sucks?
Keith Law: The water thing is bullshit.

Joe: Scherzer has given up twice as many HRs as Nola. Is this, and should it be, a significant factor in determining WAR?
Keith Law: It’s not in B-R’s formulation. Theirs is based on runs allowed – a run is a run.

Jake: Keith, several KC prospect sites i follow portray Kahlil Lee as a potential “5 tool guy”…is this the case?
Keith Law: That’s not wrong. He can show you enough of all five that you could argue that, but I think he’ll end up more an average runner.

Hank: What’s the holdup on declaring Victor Victor Mesa a FA?
Keith Law: Has he been cleared by OFAC? That’s out of MLB’s control.

Brent : Hi Keith, hoped you enjoyed your time in Indy during GenCon. Curious if you made any food stops during your visit? Thanks.
Keith Law: Milktooth twice, Izzy’s once (i had the shrimp cocktail and couldn’t feel my face), and the rest from all those great food trucks.

Jo-Nathan: Why hasn’t Houston moved Tony Kemp to 2B, and just played Marwin in the OF; Kemp just doesn’t seem to have a lot of range in the OF.
Keith Law: Kemp was really bad at 2b as an amateur too.

ck: There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins’ fire sale – from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible – would you agree? Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can’t pretend they’re in a position to win soon.
Keith Law: Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

Scott: What was your initial impressions of Matt Chapman as a prospect? I feel like his ability to make contact has been a hugely pleasant surprise
Keith Law: You are spot on. His K rate this year is 22.8% in the majors. He was at 28% or higher every stint in AA and AAA. That is the shocking part. I thought he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 70 power but a 40 hit tool at best because he struck out so often.

Chris: Mediterranean diet: (1) not worth the effort; (2) great idea, but cumbersome and expensive; or (3) all in?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any specific diet plans.

Chris: I’ve heard (er, read) you sing the praises of a good espresso maker before. But I’ve never really appreciated it until I went from drinking k-cups in the morning (I know, not really coffee) to making my own espresso and americanos with a Breville espresso maker. It was expensive to be sure, but life altering. So thanks for getting on that soapbox.
Keith Law: You should all listen to me on food and coffee just never on Chris Sale.

Chris: Hi Keith, I saw a few weeks ago or more that you said you were readin The English Patient. I never saw you review it and I was interested in your thoughts on. Thanks.
Keith Law: I really thought I wrote that up. Found it surprisingly dull and rambling. Couldn’t connect with any of the characters. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it?

Max: I know that you read HP to your daughter. My son is only seven months old, so I’ve got some time, but at what age did you start reading Sorcerer’s Stone to her?
Keith Law: She was 7 3/4. Of course 9 3/4 would have been more poetic but we didn’t want to wait.

Devil’s Advocate: Acuna did not help himself. Either he was guessing away and/or breaking ball or simply hasn’t learned to turn in because his reaction to the pitch was like a catcher crossed up on signs.
Keith Law: She was totally asking for it.

Brett: Why did your wife decide to stop doing her blog? I see you removed it.
Keith Law: Her call. She hadn’t updated it in a while. I’ve encouraged her to continue as I thought it helped her as she dealt with panic disorder (which is something I can only understand as an outsider, having dealt with that only intermittently).

Jimmay: Having read so many award winning books, are there any authors whose entire catalog you’d like to read?
Keith Law: I do that quite a bit. I’ve got two Graham Greene books left. I think I read all of Vonnegut’s works except his final novel.

Chris: I’ve always been a big Plawecki fan. Love the build and think he’s just an all-around decent catcher (which is fine). Let him start next year, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Sean: Keith, have you read “It Can’t Happen Here” by Sinclair Lewis? I’m reading it now and well, I just can’t even. My fear is that with all of this hope concerning the mid-terms it’ll end up a vast disappointment for the reality-based community
Keith Law: I read and reviewed it in 2011, and reposted it in March of 2016 when it became clear what was happening.

Lee: After this debacle of a presidential administration is over, how do we change the minds/ attitudes of 35% of our electorate that believes facts/science don’t matter? That’s an awful lot of people to just write off.
Keith Law: We can’t. Denialism is extremely tough to undo.

JR: If you made it your full time job, do you think you could win $$ betting MLB (as much as you currently make annually)
Keith Law: No. that’s like trying to play the stock market.

Nick: One pizza recommendation. If you like Neapolitan-style, you should try Naples Street Food the next time you are on Long Island, in Franklin Square. They are fairly new and quite delicious. Very authentic.
Keith Law: Thanks. I never go to LI any more. I don’t have any family left there.

John: One study found limited evidence of a possible increase in one type of cancer from glyphosate, but could no rule out study bias, confounding variables, etc. If we used that standard anyone who gets cancer and ate McDonald’s french fries has a case.
Keith Law: Exactly. But juries don’t understand the scientific method; something like half of American adults don’t understand that the “theory” of evolution is proven, not “only a theory.”

Lee: I know you’ve recently read the Hyperion books by Dan Simmons. Why do you think he’s not more well known? He’s written some fantastic stuff in many different genres.
Keith Law: Genre fiction is disdained by the broader literary community.

Dan: “feel for the game”? I *think* I know what you mean … or do I? Lack of baserunning mistakes a tangible sign of this? But if you personally see a player just once/twice, you wouldn’t see this, necessarily. That info would come from scouts?
Keith Law: I can see this stuff by seeing a player once or twice, but I’ve been watching players for my job for something like 15 years now.

Mac: Do you think the top players will bow out of Jupiter again this year? This is a disturbing trend.
Keith Law: The timing of that event is terrible for pitchers. But the team USA 18U stuff is right afterwards, so if you’re bailing on one, you’re probably out for both.

Tracy: Third book question for me: I think you have a Carson McCullers book in your top 100. Do you recommend any more of her works?
Keith Law: That’s the only one I liked (The Heart is a Lonely Hunter).

Anthony: Will Estevan Florial ever show the plate discipline to access his tools
Keith Law: I think it’s very unlikely. His ability to pick up spin was nil last year when I saw him.

Chris: what terribly unhealthy food do you have trouble resisting?
Keith Law: Ice cream. Oreos. Also ice cream with Oreos.

Dan: The lyric at the top reminded me of something that drives me crazy: deluxe versions of classic albums. If I tell Spotify or iTunes to play “Rumours,” I don’t want two extra songs tacked onto the end. Can I get an amen?
Keith Law: Amen. And usually I want the studio version, not the live one.

Jakob: Bigger travesty: clams or pineapple on pizza? (I would rather eat a shoe than either.)
Keith Law: I’ve never had pizza with pineapples on it, because I’m not a savage.

snood: Keith! this is the first time I’ve recognized your opening song quote.
Keith Law: I drove down to see my family in VA this weekend, and as I passed through Silver Spring, MD, I put on Fleetwood Mac’s The Dance (one of my favorite live albums ever).

Evan: Always read about reliever concerns with Dylan Cease. Are they mostly abated given his progress this season? Does have project toward the top of a rotation?
Keith Law: He’s looked much better overall this year, and he’s stayed healthy too. I’m a buyer again after waffling a little last year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for reading. My Insider post on Baz, Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers is now up. I should be back again next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!