The Vanishing Velázquez.

I’m largely a philistine when it comes to art, and was completely in the dark when it came to Diego Velázquez, a Spanish painter from the 1600s whose work remained tremendously influential into the 20th century. He is known for his ability to create illusions in two dimensions, for his brushworks, and for the complexity of his portraits. His work influenced painters whose names or work you probably do know, including Picasso, Dali, and Manet.

Velázquez’s magnum opus, now hanging in the Prado in Madrid, is Las Meninas, a complex scene that includes the young Infanta Margarita Teresa, the daughter of the Spanish King Philip IV; and the painter himself, at a canvas, looking out at the viewer. It is a complex image of various people, at least most of them real, in various poses and at varying distances from the viewer, a cross-section of personages at the royal palace that plays with light and focus to give the illusion of depth.

In the 1840s, a Reading, England, bookseller named John Snare purchased what he believed to be a previously unknown portrait of Charles Stuart, painted by Velázquez, at the era’s equivalent of a yard sale, paying a few pounds for a painting that should have been worth a few thousand. His story is the backbone of Observer art critic Laura Cumming’s book The Vanishing Velázquez: A 19th Century Bookseller’s Obsession with a Lost Masterpiece, in which Cumming intertwines what she could piece together of Snare’s tragic life with a history of Velázquez in general and Las Meninas in particular. It’s an interesting, erudite book that I also found intermittently confusing, as Cumming is so invested in explaining to us the importance of this still (I think) somewhat obscure Spanish painter – certainly his name and work are less known than Van Gogh, Monet, Picasso, et alia – that she often loses track of Snare’s story. I was confused at several points about what paintings she was discussing, especially since, as was the custom of the time, Snare’s portrait of Charles Stuart was untitled.

Snare grabbed the painting at the country house auction, consulted a few experts, had the painting cleaned up, and concluded that he had a lost Velázquez. He exhibited the painting locally, taking a small fee for visitors to come see it, but kicked up two controversies that would eventually send him and the painting into exile. Two art critics decided, perhaps for the wrong reasons, that the painting wasn’t a Velázquez, but was by the Dutch painter Van Dyck or someone else less important in art history. The estate of the local earl, where the painting was presumed to have previously hung, decided to file a frivolous action against Snare, even seizing the painting briefly and forcing him to defend himself in court at great expense, a proceeding which Cumming can recount in some detail thanks to court records.

Snare eventually fled to the United States with the portrait, leaving his pregnant wife and three children behind, never to see them again. His exact reasons for doing so are unclear, and while he exhibited the painting in the United States, Cumming also can’t tell us what Snare did with the proceeds – he lived in impoverished circumstances in New York, so perhaps he sent the money back to England, but this is all speculation. He died around 1884 in New York, bequeathing the painting to his youngest son, Edward, who traveled to the United States to meet his father for the first time, but after the painting appeared at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in 1885, it vanished from sight and all records. It may still exist somewhere in a private collection, or even be stored somewhere, but its fate is unknown, and no images of the portrait survived either.

Cumming tells this story well enough given the paucity of source material, but she largely alternates chapters about Snare with those about Velázquez’s life, work, and masterpiece Las Meninas. The latter parts are informative, but I can’t say they’re interesting; even when she goes to great lengths to explain why the Spaniard’s work remains important and influential, without seeing the paintings – the book has fewer than a dozen images of his paintings, including Las Meninas and Juan de Pareja, a portrait of Velázquez’s slave who became his student and whom the painter granted his freedom – it’s hard to grasp Cumming’s finer points about brushstrokes or how the painter created the illusion of three dimensions on a canvas. Perhaps you need more of a foundation in art, or specifically in the type of baroque art in which Velázquez excelled, to fully appreciate this part of the story. I found myself a bit lost in these explanations, and for parts of the book was unsure which painting exactly Snare had found. I will say, at least, that Cumming made me want to see some of his work up close, and I’d especially love to see Las Meninas in person some day to appreciate a painting that Picasso tried to emulate in 58 separate sketches and that Manet called “perhaps the most astonishing piece of painting that has ever been made.”

Next up: Ira Levin’s A Kiss Before Dying.

Stick to baseball, 7/27/19.

My two ESPN+ posts this week covered a slew of low-A and short-season prospects for the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, and Orioles, including Roansy Contreras and a third look at Grayson Rodriguez; and my wrapup of this year’s Under Armour game, full of high school prospects for the 2020 draft. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

At the moment, it looks like I’ll be in Bristol on Wednesday for ESPN’s Trade Deadline special, driving home that night and flying out to Gen Con the following morning. That probably spikes a chat for this week, but I’ll return for one on the 7th or 8th.

You can still subscribe to my free email newsletter to get additional writing, typically of a more personal nature than what you find elsewhere. My deepest thanks to all of you who sent such kind replies to my most recent newsletter, and a seriously-fuck-off to the one guy who decided it was a good time to be an ass to me.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 7/25/19.

Keith Law: Motives changing day to day. Klawchat.

Wilson Ramos: Do you think BVW pulls a Preller? The Mets have a solid number of controllable assets to trade, and they have time to rebuild a team around McNeil and Alonso.
Keith Law: He should pull a Preller, but McNeil is 27, likely to be 30 by the time this team is good again, and not someone you’re building around. I wonder what he’d be worth in trade, given his minimum salary and the high probability he’s peaking right now.

Matt: Prospect junkies seem to always be looking for the next mega prospect. On the heels of Guerrero and Franco, who do you see as the next fixation? Luciano? Someone else? Thanks.
Keith Law: There isn’t a next Franco or Vlad (or Tatis). There are some very good teenaged Latin American prospects in low-A and short-season, including Luciano, Ronny Mauricio, George Valera, and Diego Cartaya, and don’t sleep on Corbin Carroll.

Brian in Austin: Doesn’t it make more sense for the Rangers (indeed, any team in the same position), to just keep Minor and Lynn since they are signed beyond this year, as opposed to trading one or both for some middling prospect(s), which seems to be the only type of prospects teams trade anymore?
Keith Law: I doubt Minor gets traded for middling prospects. Lynn, maybe, but Minor is worth more than that.

Ker Pal: If you were running the Jays, would you trade Stroman or extend him? He’s only 28, appears willing to stay, and is the only MLB-caliber starter they have at the moment. Why deal him?
Keith Law: Because they need more than just him, and there isn’t much other pitching there in the majors or high minors beyond Pearson.

Greg P: In reading Joe Sheehan yesterday, he still seems to think the Giants should be sellers despite this recent hot streak. I tend to agree. What say you?
Keith Law: I completely agree with Joe.

Jim L: Do the Cubs have any internal options to help their playoff push or who should they target? Also, when are you going to The Athletic?
Keith Law: Seems like Alzolay in some role is the only internal help they’re likely to get. My contract with ESPN is up at the end of the year; I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020.

JT: Is the Nomar Mazara experience always going to be this boring, or should we have more appreciation for a consistent performer at his age?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

JR: So, Jonah Fucking Keri, huh? Fuck him.
Keith Law: I might not have phrased it exactly the same way, but I agree with your sentiments.

Jerry: Have Whitley’s or Tucker’s ceilings taken a hit this year? Should the Astros be willing to deal either or both for a Syndergaard, Stroman, etc?
Keith Law: Ceilings, no. I certainly wonder if Whitley is truly healthy. Tucker would be my “good prospect most likely to be traded” for this year.

If only I could hit: I follow the Yankees so this may be true of other teams as well, but I’ve been struck at how well the AAA players employed this year in stints of varying length with NY have played. It made me wonder what percentage of Triple A players might be able to carve out a career if luck intervened, but otherwise might never get to the show. Do you have a sense of this? Thanks!
Keith Law: My inference, without hard evidence, is that the Yankees are doing something differently in evaluating players to bring in as AAA filler, and finding guys whom they can help make adjustments who can be productive essentially for free.

Scott: Miss you on Twitter but hope it’s helping your mental health. I was surprised to hear your personal news also but glad that is going well for you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I miss Twitter’s ability to catch me up on news quickly, but given the continued trash fire in my replies in my daily glances at it, I’m not sorry I took it off my phone.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Chris: Thanks for doing these chats. If the Red Sox are still a few games out of the wildcard race by the trade deadline, should they trade some of the players on the last year of their contracts or hope that things turnaround with their rotation and bullpen for the remainder of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they could get any real value from trading the Porcello types; given their market & owner expectations, they should probably ride it out.

Michael: Should Cleveland trade Bauer? Will they?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure, but I would certainly do so.

Zihuatanejo: Will all of Ruiz, Smith, and May to still be in the Dodgers organization on August 1?
Keith Law: My guess is no. Ruiz feels most likely to be traded with Smith ready now and Cartaya looking like a GUY.

Jack: Was there any indication Tatis was this good when the White Sox traded him? I saw him the other day and he’s electric.
Keith Law: I’ve had him highly ranked since the trade, and I know the Padres couldn’t believe their luck in getting him.

j: Thoughts on Anthony Seigler?
Keith Law: Three major injuries in 13 months, and he’ll finish this year with just 54 pro games since he signed. He has ability but he needs at bats he hasn’t getting, and catchers who get hurt a lot are worrisome propositions.

Deke: An interesting thing to ponder: At this point, would you say Trump’s presidency has been better than you expected, about as bad as you expected, or even worse than you expected?
Keith Law: Worse.

JAS: How good can Tarik Skubal be? He’s really pitched well the past few weeks, and he’s at AA and dominating. Is he a top 100 candidate?
Keith Law: He is a real prospect, but not likely to see my top 100.

Dan: Ok, notwithstanding that the Rays subs were (probably?) done legally and had no bearing on the outcome- how much more bungling from Angel Hernandez can MLB possibly tolerate at this point? Is the ump union that powerful to protect someone so utterly incompetent? In any event, I at least hope he is not allowed within 500 miles of a postseason venue this October after his debacle last October.
Keith Law: I only saw this after the fact, but the umpires’ lack of preparation really showed, and I agree it reflects poorly on Hernandez in an objective sense – yeah, we all pick on him, because we think he’s bad at his job, but this was an actual failure.

Jay: Do the Yanks have enough to land Thor? I assume any package would have to center around Garcia.
Keith Law: Buster said to me on the BBTN podcast this morning that he can’t imagine the Wilpons trading Thor to the Bronx and risking having him turn into an ace. I agree. I mean, we know the Wilpons aren’t rational.

Adam: Please tell me it’s okay to buy in to Manuel Margot’s last 40 game sample size.
Keith Law: He’s always had a good eye and high contact rates; now he seems to be starting to turn more contact into times on base. I’m in.

Frank: If you are the Giants please tell me the right move is still to sell the desirable pieces and not make a push for a one game playoff. Logic would seem to say they are most likely more of the team of the first 80 games than the team of the last 20.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Outscored on the year, bunch of overperformers on the roster.

Gloria: How are the Dems so bad at this? They have literal sound bites of Mueller essentially calling Trump an un-indicted felon, plainly stating he obstructed justice and all the talk is on optics? And why did nobody ask him about Cohen and if Trump directed that behavior?
Keith Law: The leadership is bad at this, and when younger Democrats disagree with the “shoot self in foot” strategy, the leadership goes after the dissidents. The Keystone Kops were better at catching the bad guys.

ben: You flagged Leonardo Rodriguez as a sleeper a couple years ago. He’s had a great start in Aberdeen this year but is a little old for the level. Is he still a legit prospect worth watching?
Keith Law: I saw him again last night – he hasn’t progressed.

Mike: Kiriloff has had a few injuries this year, but all in all hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 even when healthy. Any cause for concern?
Keith Law: Zero cause. Still a star.
Keith Law: And his injury this year was to his wrist (two IL stints), which you would expect to sap some of his power and contact quality. So saying he’s “had a few injuries” (it was one injury, and one that affects hitter performance even after it heals) isn’t really fair to him.

Wander: What could the Mets get for Dom Smith— a prospect in the top 150ish? Rockies seem like a fit but I cant think of a player coming back who’d make sense, Freeland maybe?
Keith Law: I think he’s worth more than that although the Mets haven’t done much to support his value.

Adam: So, umm, the first unanimous baseball HOF’er is an unabashed Trump supporter? That’s…something.
Keith Law: I was pondering this – if the news, not just his Trump support but his alignment with an openly anti-Semitic evangelical pastor, had come out before the vote, would he not have been unanimous? I can’t say it would have stopped me from voting for him, but I think it would have stopped someone.

Billy Pilgrim: Should the Tigers call Rodgers up?s The guys they’re playing at catcher seem to lack a pulse.
Keith Law: He’s not the solution either.

Adam: How arrogant are front offices about their prospect development processes? When a struggling player leaves their system and succeeds (like Alex Dickerson), then turns around and “criticizes” the coaching of their prior team, do the teams re-evaluate their process or shrug such things off as an anomaly?
Keith Law: Depends on the people, right? Some folks take the criticism personally, some see it as a chance to improve. I’m not comfortable generalizing here.

Matt : If you are the GM of a team like the Giants or As who have real shots at the wild card but a low chance at a deep playoff run how would you handle the trade deadline? A shot at a play in game isn’t worth getting value on tradeable pieces, right?
Keith Law: I’d never give up prospects if I didn’t have a shot to win the division. More so for the Giants, who I think are a mirage.

Amir: As an Afghan American who still has family living in Kabul, hearing the President muse about wiping out 10 million Afghans is both frightening and infuriating. It also makes me all the more frustrated that Dem leadership refuses to start impeachment hearings; It’s like they don’t have the same sense of urgency as their constituents. Just needed to get that out.
Keith Law: It is maddening. A party that once had many policy positions I supported doesn’t give a shit about the country or the planet as long as they get conservative judges and tax cuts.

Gloria: Alzolay is hurt. Seems to be done for the year
Keith Law: Ah sorry, I missed that, thought he was supposed to return.

Pat D: Would you consider trading Garcia as part of a package for any of Stroman, Syndergaard or Bumgarner, even though the latter two are highly unlikely to end up in the Bronx for differing reasons?
Keith Law: I think they’d have to, but I’d probably only include him for Stroman, maybe Thor, not Bumgarner.
Keith Law: My guess is the Yanks trade from their next tier of pitching prospects – guys like Gil, Gomez, Contreras, etc.

Mike: Lewis Thorpe of the Twins intrigues me, he’s got pretty nice k:bb numbers in the minors. Can he be a mid rotation guy, or is he more back end rotation?
Keith Law: More back end, but I like him and root for him to give us an Australian player with enough impact to help grow the game.

Todd: Does Luis Gil have Deivi Garcia type upside?
Keith Law: You couldn’t pick two more different players. Both prospects, but Gil is at least five inches taller, with more velocity and spin, more physical, without Deivi’s deception or mix of offspeed.

Trace: Were/Are you friends with Jonah Keri and what are your thoughts on that situation? It seems as if the baseball community has been quiet about that
Keith Law: I knew him but was not friends with him. I don’t agree the baseball community has been quiet – I’ve seen criticism all over. Julie DiCaro weighed in pretty early. Craig Calcaterra did. Jay Jaffe commented. Every site that used him cut ties right away.

danny: Did I hear you actually gag when Buster said Angel Hernandez’s name on the podcast today?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Big Fan: Is there any merit to Austin Riley going back down to AAA, or does he need to be at the MLB to figure out the adjustments he needs to make?
Keith Law: I think he’ll just go beat up AAA pitchers again.

Sage: Addison Russell days as a Major League Cub over?
Keith Law: Fine with me!

GJ: Went to Pizzeria Bianco this week before the O’s/Diamondbacks game based on your recommendation. Needless to say it was awesome! Do you believe in the resurgence of Corey Sedlock? Former first rounder finally healthy and pitching well. Future starter or bullpen piece?
Keith Law: Based on what I saw I think a bullpen piece.

Nathan : Not sure you’re a Sinclair Lewis fan but have you read Babbitt? Seems like a book due for a revival
Keith Law: I’ve only read Arrowsmith and It Can’t Happen Here, the review of which I boosted in March of 2016 when it appeared that it could indeed.

Mark: Would Eloy’s injury, though not as bad as originally feared, give you concern to move him to 1B/DH? Seems like the White Sox have a lot of prospects geared towards that position, albeit not as talented a hitter as Eloy.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. But you probably have to leave him in RF and hope he can be a 45 defender there because they’ll have too many 1b/dh types unless they can convert someone else (e.g., Vaughn to 3b).

Lark11: Hey Keith, Any reason for concern on Reds Taylor Trammell? His control over the strike zone and athleticism still stand out, but he’s struggled at double-A. Just the usual struggles/adjustments to a higher level of competition? Or, cause for concern? Thanks!
Keith Law: No concern.

Jay: “I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020” – meaning, you know but can’t say, or you legitimately don’t know?
Keith Law: Meaning I don’t know.

Zihuatanejo: “Hey Keith, it’s Twitter. The Worst People In The World send their regards.”
Keith Law: Exactly.

JC: I assume Kristian Robinson is one of the youngest players in the NWL and he is destroying the ball right now. Any chance he jumps Chisholm for you next update?
Keith Law: No chance. Good prospect, though.

Gus: How concerning is Duplantier’s shoulder injury?
Keith Law: Very, since he’s had it before (sophomore year at Wayne Graham’s School of Arm Shredding).

Jerry: It was only a couple of years ago that Frances Martes was a highly ranked prospect. After TJ, suspension, and now visa problems, is there any reason for optimism that he’ll ever be a contributor to the MLB club?
Keith Law: Contributor, sure. Star, unlikely.

Curt: Thoughts or rumblings on Touki Toussaint? Seemed to be developing into an ace the last couple years but seems like that has stalled and now he’s destined to the bullpen. Only 23 still, but have the Braves mis-managed him?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’ve mismanaged him, but they have a lot of starter candidates and can’t give him starts he hasn’t earned (yet) as they try to win. I think he’d be a very valuable trade piece, though – how can you not love the combination of stuff, athleticism, youth, and makeup?

Ryan R: Is Griffin Roberts already a wasted pick? Many reports on him when he was drafted suggested he was one of the most MLB ready players in the draft but his current stat line suggests he is struggling mightily at A+ despite being old for the level. What’s the deal with Roberts?
Keith Law: He was never going to be a starter, and they should just put him in the pen.

Eric: Do you listen to music on vinyl at all?
Keith Law: Never.

Ridley: We miss you on Twitter but don’t blame you at all. Are you going to use any other platform to fill the void, or are you thinking of just reducing the social media time/effort/exposure?
Keith Law: Still on Facebook, IG, the dish, here. Plenty of places to find me, but where I have a bit more control over the conversation and can rid the place of any vermin who show up.

Dan: Has Deivy Grullon improved his stock or is his ceiling still a No. 2 catcher in the Majors?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why he would have improved his stock at all.

Matt: The Angels have inched their way back into the race but have almost no pitching left. What would you do in their spot?
Keith Law: At least explore trading for one. Adell off limits, make anyone else potentially available.

Eric: Do you have a garden at home? We’re about to build ours out (we currently have guava, lime, blood orange and plum trees, and passion fruit vine) to include herbs and veggies so our kids can learn where their food comes from. What are some of your garden essentials?
Keith Law: I do, mostly tomatoes and herbs right now, although I try to grow peas every spring (rabbits got ’em this year) and typically grow arugula and other leafy greens.

Matt: Reynaldo Lopez just threw his third strong start after the ASB, is his best long-term role still likely a high leverage reliever, or is he good enough to project as a quality back-end starter going forward?
Keith Law: Still a future reliever for me. And that last start came against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Jason: If Riley isn’t quite ready to hit consistently, and the alternative option is Inciarte in center, does it make sense for Atlanta to bring up Pache now? Or is he just not ready with the bat?
Keith Law: Love Pache, obviously, glove was ready yesterday, I think he’d post a .280 OBP right now.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Since the SP market is pretty thin, if you’re the Yankees do you cross your fingers, hope Severino returns and maybe get some additional bullpen help, or say “screw it” and overpay for a Stroman since you have a chance to win it all this year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t cross my fingers on Severino … he’s been out so long, I’m not sure you can bet on him starting.

Todd: Where do you expect Spencer Howard to fall in next year’s prospect ranking if he stays healthy the rest of the year?
Keith Law: Around the same range he was at last winter, I think. Missing time with shoulder soreness is a concern.

Jason: Not too familiar with Yordan Alvarez’s journey to the bigs, but how do the Dodgers trade a guy like him for a middle reliever?
Keith Law: I think they got him in, saw the body & lack of athleticism, and had some quick buyer’s remorse (they had just signed him) that undervalued him.

Eric: I never thought I’d see a player as ridiculous as 2000s cartoon-numbers Bonds, but, man, Trout is there. He’s gonna end up the greatest player ever, isn’t he?
Keith Law: I think so, or at least good enough that we can have a rational debate about it.

Andres: Hey Klaw, this might be nuts to suggest. But, I think Smith has a brighter future than Pete Alonso. Would it be better for the Mets to explore an Alonso trade and play Smith in the future? I think Alonso, with the numbers and years of control, would fetch a nice amount.
Keith Law: I like Smith a ton as well, but I can’t see them considering trading Alonso given his hot start, 5+ years of control remaining, and popularity.

Billy: Are Adam Duvall or Travis Demeritte worth anything as trade fodder, or is it the juiced AAA ball?
Keith Law: I tried to buy into Demeritte when he was first traded, but he hit .222/.316/.416 while repeating AA last year, and when a guy does that, then goes to the juiced ball and goes bananas, I’m skeptical. I haven’t heard any good reason to think he’s a different player. (He has always had great bat speed & power, though. That’s real.)

Greg: The Indians would be crazy not to trade Bauer right? But could they at least wait- should they wait- until after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, if they don’t like the offers they’re getting now they could wait, but I don’t think they want to wait past this winter, as his value will drop … he’s had all of one good season, and he’s otherwise been really inconsistent.

Frank: Could Dodgers get Edwin Diaz for a deal around Keibert Ruiz? I’d do that in a second, but sounds like the Mets are looking for something like May and Ruiz (maybe we could get Wheeler + Diaz in a deal like that?)
Keith Law: Yes, I think that deal has potential – and Buster essentially said the same on the podcast today. He and Passan are more in tune with what’s likely than I am.

JAS: Is Bryan Mata the next great Red Sox starting pitcher? They haven’t developed a homegrown starter in a long time, but does he have a chance to break through? He’s 20 at AA and holding his own, with increased velocity this year…
Keith Law: Velocity was good last year too; it’s a tough delivery for a starter though.

Manny: What do you think about all the Royals college guys who have come through Wilmington? It looks like a pretty impressive group but how would you rank Lynch/Kowar/Singer/Bubic/Bowlan/Cox? Seems like we have seen a lot of deviation in how analyst have ranked them.
Keith Law: Lynch was the one sure starter (if healthy) of the group for me. Bubic second most likely to start. Kowar > Singer for me. The hitters, though … they’ve struggled a lot.

Nick: Hey KLaw, I really appreciate the chats, I read every single one! I know comps aren’t in for minor leaguers anymore. It’s a high bar, but I see a little Tim Lincecum in Deivi Garcia in terms of stuff and mechanics. Am I just a dreaming Yankees fan? Thanks again!
Keith Law: I don’t see it, sorry. Deliveries aren’t similar, Lincecum threw harder with a better CB (more vertical, too), Deivi has better deception and better SL/CH than Lincecum did at this age.

Pat D: Leaving aside the question of whether they SHOULD get in, do you think Vizquel and Yadier WILL one day get in? I’m assuming you’re a no vote on both.
Keith Law: I’m a no on both. Molina might, Vizquel unlikely.

Pete: If you run the Indians and, as you say, try to trade Bauer, how do you sell that to the fanbase that you’re trading one of your top pitchers in the middle of a playoff race?
Keith Law: He’s a pitcher; is he a top pitcher? A 4.18 FIP, leading the league in walks. He’s valuable because he takes the ball every fifth day, not because he’s an elite performer, and we haven’t even discussed what you’re getting off the field.

JR: Will Parker Meadows be as good as his brother?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given the hitch in his swing.

Matteo Salvini: We await your arrival to our paradise Mr Law. We love all immigrants. About my Mets: Have you seen SWR at all this season, enough progress to reach top 100 status?
Keith Law: No, reports are great, but I haven’t gotten to see Columbia yet. They’re on my hope-to-see list for August. Charleston & Greenville are up here this weekend, so I’ll see them.

Yanns: RE: Rivera, I’m sure politics changed some votes for Schilling so I definitely could see it having an impact for Rivera.
Keith Law: Schilling made comments on his beliefs; Rivera simply had those beliefs. And Schilling’s comments were virulent – he reposted a meme about killing journalists, and openly attacked Muslims and transgender people.

Keith: Do you see Luis Robert more like Starling Marte or Lewis Brinson?
Keith Law: I see him go 0-fer every time I’m there, so I’m the wrong person to ask. (Probably Marte. Maybe more K%.)
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, radio hit & digital video thing coming up shortly here. Thanks for all the questions. I may not chat next week depending on whether I go to Bristol at all for the deadline, but then would return to chat on the 8th, after Gen Con. Have a safe weekend.

The Ghost Road.

Pat Barker’s The Ghost Road is the third book in a trilogy, but the first I’ve read since it won the Booker Prize and I wasn’t even aware it was the third book in a series until I picked it up to read it. I was expecting something bleak, even dreadful, given the description on the back of the book – it’s set during World War I (humanity’s deadliest), and involves two men, one a psychiatrist evaluating soldiers who’ve returned from the front, one a soldier who has returned and wants, against all logic, to go back. It’s surprisingly brisk, even dryly funny, even though the book doesn’t shy away from war’s horrors and the denouement is just as grim as you’d expect; it compares quite favorably to Evelyn Waugh’s war trilogy, written several decades earlier and from a very different point of view.

Rivers is the psychiatrist in question, based very much on a real doctor of that name, while Billy Prior is the soldier, surrounded in war by real historical figures, and himself based on Barker’s own readings of historical documents of soldiers’ experiences at the front. Rivers is presented regularly with the absurdity of war and its effects on the men who fought it, including hysterical conditions that we’d recognize today as post-traumatic stress disorder but that were dismissed at the time as a sort of dubious madness. He treats Prior as one of his patients, and is more frank with this particular soldier due to some shared experiences, owning up to the pressure form above to clear as many soldiers as he can to return to active duty.

Prior is strangely eager to get back to the fight, even though he’s long lost any faith in the reasons for the war – I imagine this is one of the great separators between those who fought for the allies in World War I and those who did the same in World War II – and knows that the more tours of duty he does, the more likely he is to die there. He’s engaged to be married, finding out just before his return that his fiancée might be pregnant, but is hoping to be absolved of that responsibility one way or another, because he, like Rivers, is gay.

Ghost Road doesn’t set out, at least, to be a novel of gay men in a war of masculinity literally gone toxic – wars are always begun by men, and World War I seems especially to one of the more pointless of all wars, a battle of egos that cost millions of young men their lives. Instead, it seems that Barker creates a parallel between the alienation of men fighting someone else’s war and the isolation gay (or bisexual) men would have felt in a time where homosexuality was criminalized in much of the world, including the UK where the novel is set. The sexual encounters described in the book are matter-of-fact, furtive trysts that are entirely devoid of emotion, let alone any sense of intimacy – fitting for a war that seemed to reduce men to their barest selves, sentient beings powered by rage or controlled by their survival instincts.

Rivers is the stronger character, even though Prior gets to fight and thus has a good bit more to do on the page. Rivers, however, gets to observe and interpret for the reader, and the reader in turn sees more of the turmoil inside of him, especially as he knows the futility of his work – that he’ll be sending men back to the war who have no business returning to the battlefield. His interactions with patients also provide the bulk of the book’s humor, without which it would be the tenebrous slog I feared it would be. At the same time, Barker’s characterization even of these two men falls more on the technical side than the emotional; the descriptions of their internal monologues even tend towards the precise, perhaps lacking some of the depth of feeling you’d expect of characters facing the effects of wartime trauma and the guilt involved with surviving or believing you should go back.

For those of you who’ve read this far, I wonder if it would surprise you to learn that Pat Barker is Patricia Barker – that a novel about two gay men in World War I, a novel with no female characters of any substance whatsoever, was written entirely by a woman. It certainly surprised me, not in the sense that I thought a woman incapable of doing so, but that I thought a woman might be less interested in telling a men’s story in a world of men’s stories. There’s apparently some reason behind this – that, early in her career, Barker was tired of praise that was always tempered by commentary that her books were about or for women – but it’s still fascinating to me that she made this choice, and then executed it so well.

Next up: about 2/3 of the way through Laura Cumming’s The Vanishing Velázquez: A 19th-Century Bookseller’s Obsession with a Lost Masterpiece, which is just $1.99 on the Kindle right now.

Billion Dollar Whale.

When I reviewed Bad Blood a few months ago, one of you recommended Tom Wright and Bradley Hope’s book Billion Dollar Whale, since it’s in a similar vein – another story about a con artist who took very wealthy people for a substantial ride. While Elizabeth Holmes got caught, and may even stand trial next year (although I hold out little hope of serious punishment), Jho Low, the “whale” at the heart of this book, remains a fugitive from justice, and still has a lot of the proceeds of his massive scam – maybe the biggest in world history.

Low was a Malaysian nobody with a little bit of family money who somehow talked his way into the good graces of Malaysian President Najib Razak and some of his myrmidons, and thus ended up in control of a new sovereign wealth fund in Malaysia called 1MDB. Low, with the help of other officials in Malaysia and co-conspirators in the United Arab Emirates, managed to loot the fund of several billion dollars, using the proceeds to party his way around the world, but also to invest in or start legitimate businesses. He invested in EMI Music, bought real estate in the United States and the United Kingdom, and even funded a Hollywood production company called Red Granite Pictures, co-founded by the stepson of President Razak, which produced the Oscar-nominated film The Wolf of Wall Street as well as Daddy’s Home and Dumb and Dumber To. Meanwhile, Low kept his position of power by providing Razak’s wife with millions of dollars in gifts and jewelry, while using state funds to drum up support to keep Razak in office. He did all of this with the help of major western investment banks, notably Goldman Sachs, which profited handsomely from Low’s looting of the Malaysian government’s supposed investment fund, as well as a Swiss bank called BSI.

Wright and Hope spin an unbelievable yarn here, going from Low’s childhood to his years at Wharton, where he already showed the sort of pretension and penchant for not paying his debts, through his rise and partial fall as the de facto leader of 1MDB. Low befriended Leonardo DiCaprio, giving him millions of dollars of art as gifts, and dated supermodel Miranda Kerr, giving her $8 million in jewelry. (DiCaprio and Kerr forfeited all of those gifts, voluntarily, once the FBI began its investigation into 1MDB.) He also hung out with Jamie Foxx and producer Swizz Beatz, the husband of singer & musician Alicia Keys; Swizz Beatz in particular continued to support Low even when it was clear that the latter had come by all his money via fraud.

Low’s con was really simple as cons go – he covered up his pilfering of the till with a series of paper transactions, doing so with the cooperation of other con men in Malaysia’s government and with the sovereign funds of Arab nations, all of whom took payouts to participate in the scam. What is hard to fathom, and what Wright and Hope spell out so well, is how thoroughly Low et al bamboozled western banks and accounting firms – or how little they cared about the provenance of the funds as long as they were getting paid. Billion Dollar Whale could be a textbook in a class on “Know Your Customer” rules, and what happens when banks fail to follow those procedures. Low skated repeatedly at points when someone should have told him no, simply because he could get someone else to forge a letter to support him.

Wright and Hope try to explain some of Low’s personality and choice to go into a life of fraud, but largely end up stymied by how bland he was – socially awkward and introverted, granted access to famous people and women by his money but still every bit as inscrutable. He also studiously avoided attention throughout his tenure with 1MDB, so there was minimal press coverage of him, and he didn’t start to appear in the media coverage of the scandal until after several stories had already appeared. So it’s not a biography of Low in any sense, but a story of a con – a completely fascinating one because of how many people either went along with it (to get rich) or failed in their fiduciary or legal duties to stop it.

A huge part of Low’s ability to get away with this scam for years was the tie to Razak, who was finally ousted from office in an election in 2018, after which he and his wife were arrested for corruption. Just this week, prosecutors in his trial showed that his wife spent over $800,000 in one day on jewelry, spending that went through the 1MDB fund; I assume this is the same story Wright and Hope tell of Low taking Razak’s wife to a famous jeweler. Low, however, fled to China and appears to still be running around the country with access to at least some of his ill-gotten gains, which means the Chinese government is, for some reason, okay with him doing so in spite of an Interpol warrant out for his arrest.

Next up: Laura Cumming’s The Vanishing Velázquez: A 19th-Century Bookseller’s Obsession with a Lost Masterpiece.

Stick to baseball, 7/20/19.

No new ESPN+ pieces this week but I expect to have several next week. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Century A New World, the end of the Century trilogy that began with Spice Road and continued with Eastern Wonders.

If you read my free email newsletter, you learned at least two interesting things this week, one of which is that I’ve backed away from Twitter by logging out of it on my phone. I find the entire atmosphere on the site too toxic for my tastes, which even continued on Friday as I checked it on my laptop to find someone angry I didn’t tweet about a particular story that broke yesterday.

I’ll be at the Under Armour Game at Wrigley Field on Monday, a great event that showcases many of the high school players who’ll be drafted in the first round next June. It’s free to attend; you can request tickets ahead of time or just get them at the ticket windows that day. The game starts at 2 pm and I highly recommend it.

And now, the links…

Exit: The Catacombs of Horror.

I’ve been a huge fan of the Exit games since I first tried & reviewed them a year and a half ago. The series, which won the Kennerspiel des Jahres in 2017, comprises a series of single-play games that mimic the experience of an escape room, asking you (solo or in a team) to find a series of codes to solve the puzzle, generally destroying the game’s components as you go. They’re fun, appropriately difficult, usually playable inside of an hour, and come with a structured system of hints in case you get stuck. My daughter and I do these as a rainy-day activity, and I think we’ve played at least five so far, enjoying most of them.

The series steps up in difficulty with its newest title, Exit: The Catacombs of Horror, a longer title playable over two sessions, with puzzles that promise to be harder to solve … which is true, because this game was almost certainly not playtested, with puzzles that are far less straightforward than those in previous titles. The puzzle you have to solve to finish the game is a joke – even after reading the third hint card, which is supposed to explain the solution, I still have no idea what the designers expected players to do. There’s a huge failure of design here: You don’t make puzzles more difficult by making them too obscure to solve.

Exit’s puzzles come in all sorts of forms, but there are some common types, from deciphering codes in texts, finding hidden characters or images in printed materials, cutting and/or folding the materials to reveal patterns, or finding images that look like numbers. All of the game’s codes comprise three digits, so you know that will always be your goal; you use a decoder disk, entering the three digits under the symbol for the puzzle you’re solving, and you get a number for a card in the answer deck, which tells you if you’re wrong or refers you to the next clue. These puzzles generally range from very direct to a bit weird, often when the game wants you to see a number in an image or in something you’ve drawn; they take an especially liberal view when it comes to visual representations of numbers in sketches or lines.

The Catacombs of Horror, however, increases the difficulty by making things harder to see or to follow. One puzzle requires cutting images out of one of the cards, but the dashed lines that would tip you off that the designers want you to cut are almost impossible to see; my vision is fine, and I had a hard time spotting the lines, so I can’t imagine how hard it would be for older players or anyone requiring glasses. Another required finding blue dots on a large poster, except one of the blue dots was located on a teal flashlight, so the colors were nearly identical. There’s a puzzle that requires assembling a little cardboard box and threading a string through it, then looking through cutouts in the box’s sides and deciphering the number shown by the strings, once they’re pulled taut, which was a complete flop – yeah, I get why they said that looks like the number 2, but no average person is going to get that. It’s too inside-boardgaming for me, and I say that as someone who’s played most of the titles in the series.

Then there’s the final puzzle, which I won’t spoil because I can’t. I still don’t really get what the designers wanted me to do, even after a detailed reading of the last card – and my daughter, who loves these games but had lost interest before we finished this one, didn’t understand it either. It involves a lit candle, a ‘column’ with arrows that you place in a little plastic stand (which didn’t work – the column was way too flimsy and narrow for the stand), and then … a shadow? It’s the only time we’ve played an Exit game and given up. There’s no way they tested this final puzzle with regular game players, and I feel like the English translation of the last hint card (the third – each riddle has three hint cards, the first just a guide to start you, the third the solution) was inadequate.

I’m still interested in the series – there are four other new titles this year, and I see at least three previous titles we haven’t tried yet – but I can’t recommend The Catacombs of Horror unless they revise it, especially the final riddle. If you’d like to try the Exit games, I suggest The Abandoned Cabin, The Pharaoh’s Tomb, or The Secret Lab as a starting point – and feel free to ask me questions in the comments if you get a little stuck.

Klawchat 7/18/19.

My latest review for PasteMagazine covers Century A New World, the last game in the Century trilogy (Spice Road, Eastern Wonders).

Keith Law: This can’t go on – I must inform the Law. Oh, that’s me. Klawchat.

Craig: Does Corbin Burnes still have a lot of trade value? If you were a seller (i.e. Toronto, Texas, Detroit), would you be willing to accept him as the centerpiece for a Stroman/Minor/Boyd deal?
Keith Law: He was just placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, so I think his value right now is zero until he shows he’s healthy.

Rob: What are your thoughts on Robel Garcia? His path the MLB is quite interesting. Do you thinkk he’s an everyday 2B?
Keith Law: His path is unprecedented. I would guess his high strikeout rate will keep him from being an average regular, but I don’t feel very strongly about that (since we have no history with him), and I’d like to see him prove me wrong.

Matt: Hi Keith, is Nick Economos a legit prospect? He’s been solid in two levels of A-ball this seaon.
Keith Law: He’s also 24 years old and should be at least in double-A. We’ll see if/when he gets there.

Oscar Mercado: Am I an above-average regular / occasional All-Star? Or am I playing a little above my head right now?
Keith Law: You’re not playing above your head, but I don’t think you’re playing at an above-average level yet. I wish Cleveland would give Mercado the CF job full-time; he’s best there of all three positions and his bat there could make him an above-average regular in time.

Inky Dink: Brandon Sproat was the highest draft pick not to sign — did the Rangers screw this up or do you think the player changed his mind (which I’m not criticizing him for if he did — that’s his right)
Keith Law: I don’t know the details and don’t want to speculate, since he is going to college and I don’t want to give anyone cause to question his eligibility.

BushThrushRush: Joe Palumbo has struggled in his brief major league auditions this year. Have you dropped him from his just outside the top 100 status that he held pre-season?
Keith Law: No, that’s not how this works. If anything, he’s moved on to the back of the top 100.

addoeh: Were you able to try any new eats in Cleveland for the Futures Game, despite your illness?
Keith Law: Yes, but I realized afterwards everything tasted flat to me because I was sick. I went to Greenhouse Tavern (best place I ate), Mabel’s, Barrio (worst), Spice Kitchen. Pour Coffee was excellent too. And there’s an ice cream sandwich place right downtown – Cathy’s? – that was outstanding. THAT I could taste.

Rando : I know you’ve said before that you weren’t interested in Game of Thrones but can you just reaffirm that a show that uses the murdering of children and rape as a plot device isn’t interesting or edgy.
Keith Law: That is partly my view, at least. It deters me from watching.

Alex: Re: Cashner trade– Os get 2 DSL guys with decent stats. Do you think that Elias or K Perez targeted these specific guys (i.e., we wanted them while we were at Houston/Cleveland) and/or they figured 2 lottery tickets had higher upside (but greater risk) than an A/AA prospect (see what Royals got for Homer Bailey). Thanks
Keith Law: I’m sure it’s the former.

xxxYYY: How did we get to a point where “socialism” is being defined in this country as things like “public schools” and “universal health care,” rather than “government ownership and management of businesses” and “centralized planning”?
Keith Law: This has been true to some degree since at least the 1980s, when Republicans used “socialism” against Mike Dukakis in the ’88 election. Economics education in this country is bad, so the average American doesn’t know what the term means – I think very few people truly understand what socialism the economic system entails, because how would they learn it if it’s not taught in school and politicians use it incorrectly all the time?

Herten for Sherten: Sherten Apostel was just promoted to high-A despite middling numbers in the Sally League. Is this the Rangers rushing another guy who should be held back?
Keith Law: Uh, no. He slugged .470 in low-A.

Zach: If you’re Atlanta, would you have any prospects that are off-limits in trade talks (Anderson, Pache for example)?
Keith Law: Pache would be untouchable for me.

Salty: Would you start playing Gavin Lux at 2B in anticipation of a mid/late August promotion, or would you let him finish out the year in AAA at SS, then give him some reps at 2B at AFL and/or spring training?
Keith Law: I would only do this if the plan was to play Lux regularly at 2b in September and then have him stay there next spring. AFL starts too early this year so it screws up any plans to have such a player in the majors in September (opening day is 9/17, I think, so dumb).

Christopher: sigh, should the Mets just trade everyone?
Keith Law: I’d say yes, but do you want the guy who traded Kelenic/Dunn for Cano/Diaz really overseeing the fire sale?

Brandon J: Hey Keith, Josiah Gray recently got promoted to AA and has had a phenomenal year, do you think this is a sign of things to come and would he be approaching your top 100?
Keith Law: He shouldn’t have been in low-A to start the year. Double-A is a much better test for him.

Christopher: If I don’t agree with our Dear Leader have I passed the statute of limitations where I can’t be sent back? I think my ancestors on both sides have been around for a few generations. I’m safe, right?
Keith Law: I’m only a second-generation American if you go through my maternal grandfather. I assume i’ll be deported to Italy shortly, which … okay, that might be okay.

Kevin: Think a team gives into Tigers high demand for Matt Boyd? Or do Tigers blink and lower asking price a bit? Or neither?
Keith Law: Probably will have to lower the price because there seem to be a few other SP on the market right now. But I’d be inclined to take the best offer now rather than hold him (assuming they get an offer worth considering … that assumption is always built in) to the winter and risk injury.

Ryan (NY): KLaw, thanks for the chat! As a Mets’ fan, trying to keep the faith. Looking to next year, is it possible that Rosario could transition to CF with Gimenez or Guillorme taking over at SS? I want to believe he could stay at SS but it seems that the instincts are lacking there. Additionally, could Kay and/or Peterson slot into next year’s rotation with Vargas, Wheeler probably gone? There seems to be talent in A Ball, so trying to be patient until 2021-2022.
Keith Law: Mauricio is the long term SS there, so they could slot in Guillorme for his defense, taking the offensive hit, and moving Rosario to CF where they’ve had a defensive black hole since Lagares got hurt. That said, who’s the last Mets player to actually get better on defense in the majors?

Aaron C.: Do you do any in-person scouting for the short-season leagues and/or the 2019 draft class or are you off the road until Arizona in October?
Keith Law: Yes, I was actually in Aberdeen last night but got rained out. Will try again next week, by which point Rutschman should be there.

Steve: Does Wander Franco stay at shortstop, or will he end up at 3rd or 2nd?
Keith Law: 50/50 he stays at short.

Andrew: Would you evaluate pitchers at AA or below differently with the new ball implemented in AAA?
Keith Law: I’m probably going to skip AAA entirely this year.
Keith Law: There’s no point – you can’t evaluate players in that environment, with more AAA homers hit by the All-Star Break this year than there were in AAA in *all* of 2018 – and it’s just shitty baseball now.

Yuri: Even though none of them made your top-50, fair to say that this is the most excited Giants’ fans should be about their system in a while? Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Canario, Bishop is probably more position player pure talent than they’ve had in a loooong time.
Keith Law: That’s probably fair. Best position player crop since the Posey/Crawford years.

Aaron C.: You: “If Nick Allen (current OBP: .363) can get on base, the A’s might have something.” I know you’re waiting until next year (AA) to see if it’s real, but I can only save this seat on the bandwagon for a little while longer, Klaw.
Keith Law: I’m in. Can really play short and he’s also making a good bit more hard contact than scouts in general expected (given his size).

Derek: If your the Pirates, what kind of return are you holding out for with Vazquez?
Keith Law: I read they wanted two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects, which is entirely their right to demand, but there is no way on earth I’m giving that up (two top 50 overall prospects?) for any closer. As for what I’m holding out for, it’s really about getting the best offer you can and taking it, since relievers go poof! all the time.

Ker Pal: Vlad’s hitting a whole bunch of ground balls. I know he’s 20. No real cause for concern…is there?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: When O’Neil Cruz makes his MLB debut, it will be at what position?
Keith Law: Third base, or the outfield.

Kyle KS: What happened to keeping one foot in the box for hitters from a few years ago? It’s not a huge time saver but it did seem to help the feel of pace of play.
Keith Law: Never truly enforced in my experience.

Leroy : Does James Marvel have any big league potential?
Keith Law: Possibly. Not a high likelihood.

Kevin: Is this what you expected from Devers, or do you think there is still a lot of room for growth for the 22 year old?
Keith Law: This is what I expected, but I think he’ll grow into even more power.

Joe B: How did Razza match up against the other places you’ve been to?
Keith Law: It’s top 20 for me for sure, bordering on top 10. I will probably update that ranking this winter – I’ve been to at least eight places worthy of adding (Razza, Pequod, Backspace, Bruno, 2 Amy’s, Pizza Rock, Settebello, Apizza Scholls) and am hoping to hit Beddia in the fall.

JP: why wasn’t Luciano on the top 50? doesn’t he have as much upside as anyone in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the upside claim, but more importantly, the top 50 is not strictly a list of the players with the most upside. He’s a good prospect; he’s not top 50 good yet.

Jake: Thanks as always for the chat! Who do you believe has the higher ceiling between Kowar and Lynch and who has the higher probability of reaching it?
Keith Law: Lynch to both, assuming he’s healthy.

Jason: What’s keston Hiuras ceiling?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, bordering on star because he hits for high average, held back by defense.

Zihuatanejo: Hi Keith — IIRC you’ve mentioned that you rarely or never drink alcohol. Any beverage recommendations for the newly sober who are accustomed to wine and such with their meals?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – I’m a moderate drinker – but when I don’t want to drink, I’ll do soda water with lime, or soda water with bitters (“bits and bubs”).

Pedro: How good can Jake Fraley be?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Brandon Warne: Fast forward one year — Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff have hypothetically exhausted their prospect status.

Who do you think would be No. 1 on your Twins prospect list?
Keith Law: Balazovic, probably. Cavaco and Larnach would be possibilities; need to see Larnach show some power now that he’s out of the FSL.

JR: Tarik Skubal having a great year. Is he apart of the future for the Tigers?
Keith Law: Yes, but in what role I don’t know yet.

Brendan: If you’re Neal Huntington – full on rebuild, or sell off veteran pieces? I think a lot of Pirate fans feel like we’re stuck in 78-83 win purgatory.
Keith Law: Seemed like they were trying to win this year and they’re not exactly out of it, but maybe not quite good enough to make it? Hard to advocate selling given that they’re only 6 out in the loss column but that is what I would do in their situation.

Rybo: Longtime fan, Keith. Just wanted to say thank you for your recommendation of “The Happiest Baby on the Block” – it’s been an absolute game changer for my wife and I with our newborn
Keith Law: That’s great to hear – I’m glad you found it as useful as I did.

Pat: Thoughts on Alex Wells? I know I’m scouting the stat line, but he just keeps on keeping on. 1.95 ERA, 2.63 FIP at AA. Can a guy with that limited velocity be a GUY?
Keith Law: I think there’s a chance he’s a back-end starter – a very small chance, but I wouldn’t say zero.

Brandon Warne: With regards to depression/anxiety — how much tweaking did your prescriptions need before you felt “normal” again. Did you ever?
Keith Law: Normal is always a relative term to me. I felt different on each medication I tried, and differently on 10 mg of escitalopram (current dose) vs 20 mg (previous dose, stronger benefit, worse side effects). It is worth tweaking the meds and doses to find a combination that makes you feel the best you can.

Drew: Is Michael Baumann a legit prospect, or was his no-no in Bowie a fluke?
Keith Law: Relief prospect.

Dylan Carlson: I had a big game last night, 2 HR, what do you think my future is? (Ceiling, eta, comparison)
Keith Law: See my top 50 from last week.

Epsthoyer: Thanks for doing this, Klaw. Long time first time.. Will Roederer & Davis be 2/3 of our OF in 2021?
Keith Law: I would guess that if both continue to develop one ends up traded for major-league help before then.

Realist: % Chance a Dem or Reporter is seriously injured in the lead up to the election this time around because of Trump’s rhetoric?
Keith Law: Over 50%.

Noah: Have you been to Yountville for the restaurants and wine? Any favorites (other than French laundry)
Keith Law: Never. I think there’s a pizza place out there on my to-try list too.

Micah: Knowing the year to year volatility of relievers, would you ever trade a top prospect for said reliever?
Keith Law: Nope.

Lyle: Cal Raleigh! How fast can he move up the system?
Keith Law: Should spend the rest of this year in AA. Did okay in high-A, but he’s a D1 product and he should have done well there.

Chris: Syndergaard and Wheeler for Patino, Morejon, Baez, Weathers. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Padres, with howls of derisive laughter.

Brian: You didn’t seem particularly impressed with Mickey Moniak. And yet, in May he hit .290 with a .755 OPS, in June it was .294 w/an .872 OPS and a big spike in walks & in July it’s been .320 with an .850 OPS. That sounds a lot like the Steve Finley type player discussed when the Phillies drafted him. What are you seeing and hearing from scouts that the stat line isn’t showing?
Keith Law: OPS sucks for individual players, more so for trying to evaluate prospects. It’s not a good swing at all, not going to generate power, and his approach isn’t good. He’s also probably not a CF long term.

Johnny: Which catcher has a better chance of being an all-star Sean Murphy or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Keibert.

Danny: Can Deivi Garcia be an option for the Yankees in September or the playoffs? Either as a starter or out of the pen?
Keith Law: Yes. Either but not sure I’d push him into a playoff rotation right out of AAA.

Chris: Logan Gilbert thoughts?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter? Sounds like he’s got all his 2017 velocity back and the other elements were already in place.

Chris: Justice Sheffield struggled with control and the ball in triple A and has since crushed double A. He’s only 23. Why did he fall in the rankings if triple A performance is so unscoutable for pitchers?
Keith Law: Because his velocity dropped.

Aaron: Hi Keith, thanks for sharing your views on health and science in addition to your baseball opinions. My 12 year old daughter suffers from anxiety. Her mom (my ex wife) strongly believe that abstinence from gluten and sugars are scientifically shown to lower anxiety. One can find studies & ‘proofs’ to pretty much anything on the internet. I have no idea how to
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pseudoscience. There’s no effect, and your daughter is just going to be miserable because she can’t have Oreos. Eat the sugar and the flour and use actual, evidence-based treatments, like meditation, medication, exercise, and therapy.

Financial Flexibility: What should the Braves do with Austin Riley the next 2.5 months? He’s slumped terribly since his hot start, but sending him to AAA seems silly. Do you just keep sending him back out there to LF everyday or put him in some sort of platoon/rotation with Ender Inciarte?
Keith Law: If he’s up, he plays. Platooning him is probably the worst idea (he’d never get at bats, and thus have little chance to develop).

Rob: You mentioned last week that the new baseball “may” be affecting the quality of Syndergaard’s off speed stuff. Do you think this may be a factor in Aaron Sanchez’ struggles as well? (along with the tighter seams possibly affecting his finger)
Keith Law: Yes, plausible.

J.T.: Are you buying Barreto as a regular 2b?
Keith Law: No.

Aiden: What do you think about all the people complaining that the left “demonizes” Trump supporters and then the reality that they chant things like “send her back” at his rallies?
Keith Law: I was going to say that Trump supporters demonize themselves with their words and actions (and hats).

Brian: Can you clarify something in your top 50 about Spencer Howard: you mentioned the shoulder injury, but he’s been dynamite since he came back. Just too much risk for reinjury with a shoulder?
Keith Law: It’s two starts. (One came after the top 50 was posted.) Shoulder injuries are much worse for a player’s value than elbow.

Los Hermanos Waner: You could eat all the oreos you want (for free) with no negative effects for the rest of your life OR wipe the memory of the last 2 seasons of Orioles baseball from the collective minds of the people of Baltimore. Would you be so altruistic?
Keith Law: LOL no

Chris: Have you had a chance to scout julio Rodriguez. He’s fun
Keith Law: Unfortunately he was hurt when WV came to Lakewood. Been good since he came back.

Benji: Do you think there’s any way the Rays would offer up both Sanchez & Brujan in a Boyd deal?
Keith Law: Doubt it.

Rob: Chance Seth Beer makes the top 100 if he can play serviceable defense at first?
Keith Law: No shot. Platoon guy right now, until he shows he can hit LHB even passably.

Brett V: Any hope for Royals prospects Pratto or Matias or at this point do you start to write them off as ever developing into MLB regulars
Keith Law: I do not project either as a regular. I’m not sure Pratto is a big leaguer at the moment.

Steve: How did you maintain your reading habits/schedule with a newborn?
Keith Law: I read less that year than in any other year in the last ~15. It wasn’t until she started sleeping through the night that I got back to my regular reading habits (because I was sleeping more).

El Perezoso: Best pizza you’ve ever had?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Bianco in Arizona. Keste in NYC is second. Of course I’ve had great pizza around Italy in places I couldn’t name, too.

Jason: Is Brandon woodruff for real?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Sloth: How was the Phish show? Which night of Camden did you go to?
Keith Law: One and two (not three). Both were fun. Can’t say I knew more than 3-4 songs each night. It was the company that made it fun for me, though.

Alex: >OPS sucks for individual players
Pardon my ignorance but I hadn’t heard this before. What circumstances is OPS useful for then- just evaluating team performance, or entire careers vs. individual seasons?
Keith Law: OPS underweights OBP severely. Don’t use it for hitters. It correlates well with run-scoring at the team level, so it’s okay to use for that, I guess, although I find that a little unsatisfying anyway because I know it’s a kludge.

Mike: Why do people (including people in positions of real authority, like ahem….) insist on dismissing scientific evidence for things like climate change, vaccinations/autism, etc?
Keith Law: There’s a lot of psychological research on the subject. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing.

Adam: Another recent report has Allard at 91-93 again. Can you substantiate that?
Keith Law: No.

ugotwilcoxed: Thoughts on Jackson Rutledge? Seems these big kids need a lot of work to standardize their mechanics.
Keith Law: Yeah, his delivery needs work, for consistency and maybe for long-term health. I think he’ll need help throwing strikes the way he throws now.

Scott: Thanks for all your hard work and these chats! Now that Dom Smith is playing up to his potential, do you see any team giving the Mets close to what his value is? If not, how do they keep even one of his and JD Davis’ bats in the lineup without compounding their defensive problems?
Keith Law: I feel like Smith won’t return full value because teams know he’s blocked by Alonso (and Davis and McNeil to a lesser degree), and Smith hasn’t quite held his great start with inconsistent playing time, which may also hurt.

Beth: Mike Soroka or Chris Paddack long term
Keith Law: Paddack. Soroka has great shit but he’s had some real injury scares and I prefer Paddack’s delivery.

Joe: Keith, I live just outside of DC. What is the quality of baseball in the Cal Ripken league?
Keith Law: I’ve been to a game in that league, and it’s lower than the Cape or Team USA, but it was comparable to a decent college game. Definitely worth going just to watch.

Nate: You have always been skeptical of Madrigal’s ability to drive the ball enough to be an above average regular. Does his defense project plus to you to offset some of the value lost in lack of power?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t.

Rob: Any chance for George Valera to make the top 100?
Keith Law: A full, healthy summer would make that possible.

Steve : Hi Keith, Joey Cantillo in San Diego is busting out, does he have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, yes, not sure he’s a GUY.

JG: An ESPN analyst “suggested” the Twins try to acquire Syndergaard and offered Lewis or Kirilloff and Graterol or Balazovic. Does that get it done and would you do it?
Keith Law: That’s a strange proposal because Lewis’s value is down a bit and Graterol’s been on the shelf with a shoulder injury for two months.

Kyle: Preference of region in Italy, north or south?
Keith Law: North, primarily for food, but really you could send me anywhere in Italy and I’d be happy.

Randy: How do you rate/rank a player like Brendan Rodgers following the season ending surgery?
Keith Law: No change unless someone tells me there’s a reason this injury/surgery might affect him long-term – for example, if he has to move to second base, as seems possible, that hurts his long-term outlook

Pete: Are you going to the Cape this year?
Keith Law: No. Under Armour for me, then lots of minor league scouting around here, then Gen Con.

Dr. Bob: Is there a concern about Vlad Jr.’s weight going forward? Guys like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder didn’t age well, in part, because of their weight.
Keith Law: Yes. That was one of the reasons why I ranked him #2 behind Tatis Jr.

Steve: Kirsten Gillibrand has a “little girl” voice. Do you think such things matter in terms of elect-ability? How about height?
Keith Law: There is verified research that the timber of a candidate’s voice and a candidate’s height have a significant effect on their appeal to voters. Taller men are also more likely to believe in their own leadership abilities and to pursue such positions.

Rick: KLaw, you’ve spoken often about the insanely low wages paid to MiLB players (1st year players make a max monthly amount of $1,075) and how owners needed specific legislation passed which exempted minor league players from federal labor law. What do you think is the best way for the industry, and for the average fan to address this situation?
Keith Law: The best way was to call your representatives in Congress before the GOP tax law passed. I’m not sure there’s a good way for fans to express that interest now, at least not until the players themselves take action.

Brian: Thanks for the chat – really appreciate the time you dedicate to this. I’m always curious about player development. I think you’ve indicated (apologies if I’ve got it wrong) that Bichette can’t stay at shortstop. Why would the Jays keep developing him in Triple A at a position he won’t play in the majors? Wouldn’t it be better to get reps (lots of them) at 2B?
Keith Law: They think he can stay at shortstop. They also insisted Vlad Jr. could play third and Tellez could play first, so perhaps they skew in a different direction.

Matt: Is there any chance the White Sox will push Vaughn to High A before the end of the year? Low A doesn’t appear to be giving him much of a challenge thus far, and his bat has universally been praised as “advanced.”
Keith Law: Yes, they did so with Madrigal last year.

Gerald: Poorly phrased, in your years in baseball, is there one draft pick that caught your attention as player not worthy of the draft slot.
Keith Law: Hayden Simpson is the most obvious choice. Kevin Matthews comes to mind too.

Lee: Do you agree with Pelosi’s strategy of avoiding impeachment at all costs? I understand her thinking in that it will unify the GOP around Trump in an election season and I agree to an extent because it’s very important he’s out of office ASAP. But not impeaching him for political reasons sends a really horrible precedent for all future presidents. That you can commit as many crimes as you like as long as your party controls one house of congress. Dark times.
Keith Law: No, I would support impeachment, even knowing it will fail in the Senate.

JR: Riley Greene killing it thus far. When does he get called up to A ball?
Keith Law: That’s who I was trying to see last night. I’m guessing he starts next year in low-A. You want him to stay in one spot long enough to face a team or two twice, so maybe they adjust to him.

Sanjay: Are teams required to obtain MLB approval to install netting around the field of play or can they move forward on their own? If the latter, why haven’t more teams installed it already?
Keith Law: They either don’t need approval or MLB is granting it to everyone who asks, so in practical terms, they’re good to go.
Keith Law: Why not? Inertia, I guess?

Draftnik: Not going to argue with you about Moniak’s swing — I’m certainly no expert — but he has a wRC+ of 137 since May 1st. That’s over 250 plate appearances, and that is as a barely 21-year-old in AA. You don’t see him as a first-division regular in, say, 3 or 4 years?
Keith Law: No I don’t see him as that, and that’s still a small sample – and wRC+ is not useful for prospects. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ in a full season in high-A as a 20-year-old, and he’s a non-prospect.
Keith Law: Stop scouting the stat line.

Robert: How excited should Padres fans be for Munoz? Can you reasonably project him to be a high leverage reliever or is the command and slider worrisome?
Keith Law: High-leverage reliever with high bust/blowout risk.

Mickey Callaway: I think you deserve a victory lap for Tatis over Vlad, but people praising you miss the point that the difference was one spot and both should be excellent.
Keith Law: The people who missed the point were those angry I had Tatis over Vlad in January. I never said Vlad wasn’t good.

Robert: At this point is Michael Gettys an org guy?
Keith Law: In pragmatic terms, no, he’ll probably get a cup of coffee, but I do not project him to have any positive major league value.

Aaron: If the Phillies set their defensive requirements at 3B at Maikel Franco, is Alec Bohm good enough to play 3B for them?
Keith Law: I made that argument with someone at the Futures Game – if you’re willing to tolerate Franco, you can tolerate Bohm, at least in the short term. And I think Bohm’s going to hit for more average at the very least.

Jason: An Atlanta beat writer has a top 4 he would make untouchable: Pache, Waters, Anderson, and Muller. Was Muller near your consideration for the top 50?
Keith Law: No, and I would only have Pache untouchable out of that group.

Brandon Warne: When is your next reason to visit Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Probably visiting friends rather than coming for any baseball reason.

Adam: Thoughts on Makhi Backstrom?
Keith Law: He was in my draft recap for Atlanta.

Randy: What is it you enjoy so much about Italy (haven’t been but my fathers side if from there)? Obviously the food. But, culture?
Keith Law: Culture, history, and most importantly their way of life.

Eric: Please end the chat on this: VACCINATE YOUR DAMN CHILDREN
Keith Law: You got it.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for all the questions. I’ll be back next week for a chat, and then probably skipping the following week between the trade deadline and Gen Con. I’ll be at Under Armour on Monday, barring another family emergency (!), and will have a writeup afterwards.

Never Look Away.

Never Look Away (iTunesamazon) was the last film for me to see from this year’s Oscar batch; I like to try to see all of the films nominated in major categories, including acting and directing, which is often a challenge for the five films nominated in Best Foreign Language Film. Never Look Away, Germany’s submission for last year, took one of those nominations but also earned a nod for Best Cinematography, and writer/director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck had won the foreign film award previously for the acclaimed 2006 film The Lives of Others, which I need to see (and is streaming on Netflix at the moment). The particular catch with Never Look Away is that the movie is 189 minutes long, which is well beyond what I think I can handle in a single sitting in the theater, so I missed its run in the art theaters of Philly. It’s really tremendous, in hindsight one of my top ten movies of 2018, and certainly deserved its spot in the Best Foreign Language Film category. I wonder if, had it been shorter and a bit easier to see, it would have had a little buzz for Best Picture, because it’s such a beautiful, high-minded film, anchored by two very strong performances.

Never Look Away is based loosely on the life of Gerhard Richter, a German painter best known for a particular style of painting photographs on canvas, hewing closely to real events of his childhood and his professional life. The protagonist here, renamed Kurt Barnert, is born just as the Nazis are gaining power in Germany, and is traumatized by seeing his favorite aunt, who encouraged his interest in art, suffer a mental health breakdown, after which the Nazis forcibly commit her and then put her to death in a concentration camp. In art school, he meets a young woman named Ellie – who reminds him of his deceased aunt – and falls in love with her, not realizing that her father, a gynecologist, had an important role in the Nazi regime. Kurt and Ellie survive the war, but in postwar East Germany he only gets to paint scenes of Socialist Realism, so the two defect shortly before the Berlin Wall goes up, allowing him to secure a place in an important art school in West Berlin, where he eventually has his creative breakthrough. The love story between the two characters, which is the movie’s major fictional aspect, is woven into the lead character’s artistic narrative, as the saintly Ellie serves both as the great love of Kurt’s life and also a major inspiration for his eventual success as an artist.

Never Look Away moves along shockingly well for a movie of this length and scope, in part because von Donnersmarck doesn’t linger too long over most scenes, especially after the fairly extended prologue of scenes just before and during World War II, which serve primarily to set up Kurt’s character and the ensuing drama with Ellie’s father. Schilling is very compelling as Kurt, appropriately brooding and intense, never truly at ease even with Ellie, while Sebastian Koch (who reminds me of the late Austrian singer Falco) is perfectly insidious as Ellie’s father, whose professional demeanor hides his machinations and drive for self-preservation.

Paula Beer plays Ellie as well as she can, but the character’s primary function is to stand still and look pretty, which is arguably the movie’s biggest flaw – there are no female characters here of any depth. There are various women who play critical roles in Kurt’s life, from his aunt Elizabeth to Ellie to Ellie’s mother (Ina Weisse, looking a lot like Cate Blanchett from Carol), but they’re all at the story’s periphery, and Ellie – who I think is a pastiche of Richter’s wives, but is clearly not a real, single character – gets virtually no exposition, no explanation of why she’s in love with Kurt, no description of her life outside of his view, and no function in the plot beyond the connection to her father and her trouble getting pregnant.

Once a film gets past 130-140 minutes, the question of need becomes salient – did the movie have to be this long? Did Never Look Away need to run a shade over three hours, and does it make sufficient use of that time? The answer is rarely yes, but in this case, von Donnersmarck doesn’t waste a minute; the pace is consistent, never dragging, but of course never rushing, and he uses some of the space he’s allotted to himself to express the struggle of an artist looking for his voice without boring the viewer. (The film has very little humor, but the scenes of Kurt trying out new ideas, and getting reactions from his colleague Günther, are the closest this movie comes to comedy.) The cinematography that garnered such praise is a function of different camera angles and shifting shots to compare the scope of art to the world around it, rather than the lingering landscape scenes I tend to associate with Best Cinematography nominees.

Roma was obviously going to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, but in the competition for second place behind it, Never Look Away was clearly worthy of one of the four other nominations, and I think if the film were shorter it might have at least gained support in another category – perhaps Best Director, where Pawe? Pawlikowski got a nod for the Polish-language Cold War. I’d put Never Look Away over Cold War for a more credible story and its stronger exploration of the meaning of art, both to the public and to the artist himself, although I can’t put it above Burning, my #1 movie of last year, or Roma. Even with the lack of definition around the women in the film, it’s still riveting, and for me to say that about a movie of this length is more evidence of just how compelling it was.

G.

John Berger’s G. won two of the biggest literary honors in the Commonwealth after its 1972 release, taking home the James Black Tait Memorial Prize and the Booker Prize; at the ceremony for the latter, Berger tore into the sponsoring company, Booker-McConnall, for exploitative practices, then gave half the prize money to the British Black Panther movement. G. was just the fifth winner of the Booker Prize and was considered “experimental” for its time, just as Berger, an outspoken Marxist, was seen as a sort of curiosity. Perhaps this book was revolutionary in its time, but nearly a half-centiury it feels dated and irrelevant, more notable for the author’s prurient obsession with women’s genitalia than for anything that happens in the book itself.

G. is the book’s protagonist, set on a dissolute course from childhood – he’s the illegitimate son of an Italian philanderer who made his money in canned fruit, but was raised by a mother who refused to let his father have anything to do with the boy – and growing into a heartless, wanton libertine who seduces women just to have them, even for a single tryst, with no regard to what happens to them afterwards. His escapades culminate in the simultaneous pursuit of two women in Trieste on the eve of World War I; he inveigles a Slovene servant girl into coming to a major, upper-class ball as his date promising her his fake Italian passport in return, so that he can also jilt the wife of a major local official, a move that, unbeknownst to him, marks him as an Austrian agent (which he’s not).

The novel was sold as a picaresque, which it certainly isn’t. If anything, it’s a thinly veiled commentary on the class structures of western societies that existed prior to the first World War and, with some obvious changes in who’s in the upper echelon, persists today. It is a scene from the class struggle, told about an idiot who was born into privilege and keeps failing upward until the war finally stops him. It’s also wildly out of date: We still have class distinctions, but where once a person was born into a class, now the distinctions are more of income inequality, or race, or their intersection. The Rockefellers and the Vanderbilts are gone, replaced by other families, but their names lack the power of the earlier leading families; it is their money that speaks, and their money that explains the different treatment they get at every step in their lives.

Berger comes off as a Marxist, for sure, but he comes off even more as a pervert. The book is replete with descriptions of genitalia, primarily women’s, but in a gynecological way, not an erotic or even pornographic one. It’s as if Berger was obsessed with and disgusted by a woman’s sex at the same time, so he describes the vulva and vagina in the basest way to try to diminish the women themselves. Indeed, the women G. pursues here are mere props in the story; G. doesn’t care about them and Berger doesn’t give the reader any reason to care either.

I’d enjoyed a bunch of more recent Booker winners, which led me to decide to read most or all of the previous winners, but some of the pre-2000 titles just aren’t that good. I bailed on James Kelman’s How late it was, how late before I reached the quarter mark, as its stream of consciousness prose was maddening, the main character hadn’t moved more than about half a block in all that I read, and the heavy use of the c-word was really grating. I read but never reviewed Anita Brookner’s Hotel du Lac, about an author of romance novels who has fled some embarrassment in England and takes a room at a seaside hotel in Switzerland where she meets the usual cast of eccentrics and learns things about herself. It’s a trifle, not as funny as it would like to be and nothing you haven’t seen before (Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont covers similar ground, and better). I’m not sure who was picking Booker winners before this century but I’m at least glad they’ve upped their standards.

Next up: Like a moth to a flame, I’m reading another Booker winner, this time Pat Barker’s The Ghost Road.