Stick to baseball, 3/26/21.

I had one filler post for subscribers to the Athletic this past week to tide us over until we get to my predictions this upcoming week, looking at some possible trends in player development to watch for as games begin next week. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

At Paste, I reviewed Renature, the latest collaborative design from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, who’ve worked together before on Torres and Tikal. This game has a good bit more oomph to it – it’s less abstract and definitely more fun.

On the Keith Law Show this week I spoke to Julie DiCaro about her new book Sidelined: Sports, Culture, and Being a Woman in America and how sports leagues can do better on matters of gender, race, harassment, and domestic violence. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6th, just 10 days from now.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 3/26/21.

I have another new board game review up at Paste, looking at Renature, the newest collaboration from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, two designers whose games I’ve liked when they work on their own but whose joint efforts have left me cold – until this one.

Keith Law: Pay attention, it’s not hard to decipher. Klawchat.

Ifickey: Did you get a chance to scout Nick Bitsko? If he wouldn’t have reclassified, where would he rank in this upcoming draft?
Keith Law: Never seen him. His season hadn’t started last spring when the world ended. He’d be in the same range, late first round, this year, but given the shoulder surgery he should be very glad he reclassified and signed when he did.

TomBruno23: Jack Leiter, 124 pitches…managerial malfeasance?
Keith Law: No, but pointless. He’s got a $6-8 million payday in less than four months. There’s no good reason to push him just so in 20 years he can say he threw a no-hitter in a mid-season SEC game.

Guest: Any hope for Luis Urias or has that ship sailed? Looks like neither the bat or OBP skills have shown up with him thus far in Milwaukee.
Keith Law: I don’t give up on guys with a history of hitting in the minors that quickly.

Jon: Is Corbin Martin a top-60 (give or take) pitcher this season? Is that expecting too much too soon?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan but since he is still just coming back from TJ that feels like a very optimistic projection.

Bryan: Dylan Cease’s BB problems have never seen to go anywhere. Can he be a competent starter at 4.5-5 BB/9? What is the ceiling if he gets it to 3 or so?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter if he gets to average control, but can he get there when hitters hit his fastball as well and as hard as they do?

Pete: With the glutton of Braves pitching, do you see Bryse Wilson or Touki Toussaint making an impact this season or beyond, starting or out of the pen? Or will it have to be with another team if Atlanta won’t give them some run?
Keith Law: I assumed after they optioned Wright that Wilson would be in the rotation. Touki really has to work out of the pen for now and earn a rotation spot by throwing more strikes. It’s premium stuff, maybe ace stuff, but he has to be able to get it in the zone consistently.

Scott: Any good plan for Taylor Trammell this season? Just stick him in LF and see how it goes?
Keith Law: I’d start him in AAA. It’s become clear in the last year or so that his bat just isn’t as advanced as we (me, analysts, some scouts) thought it was. I do know one pro scout who was always a skeptic, though. Thought he was too passive in A-ball and wouldn’t hit better pitching.

Kevin: Could Brandon Marsh go .275/.350/.450 with 500 ABs this year? 15+ HR/SB?
Keith Law: I might take the under on the OBP for his rookie season.

Rod: I know to not read into ST stats too much but the Pirates look…..good? And Keller, the supposed ace, is the worst performing pitcher thus far. 1) What are the expectations for him – will he eventually be pushed into a relief role? 2) Obviously Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman aren’t going to hit .500 but the bat-to-ball skills seem elite. Frazier worth anything in a trade? Would you look to move Newman with a hot start or is he one of the guys you can start building around with Hayes, maybe Reynolds too?
Keith Law: The Pirates are not good. Let me disabuse you of that notion up front. They’re one of the two worst teams in the NL, even with some interesting guys. Keller has to find a weapon to get lefties out. He can kill RHB with the FB/CB but without a viable option for LHP he’ll never get close to his potential – I would argue his arsenal right now does not keep him in the rotation. I’ve long been a Newman fan, but he and Frazier may have too similar skill sets to both have roles here going forward.

Dan: I know you listed Gregory Polanco in the breakouts section…but what is a breakout for him? Is it All-Star level? A 2 win season? The tools are just gross if he could do the health thing.
Keith Law: I’m saying a 4-5 win season. 2 WAR would not be a breakout for him, or really anyone. If I think a player is going to break out, I am definitely hoping for more than 2 WAR.

Dan: The starts have been unreal for both Paxton and Robbie Ray – are they reclamation projects that you believe will be reclaimed for lack of a better word?
Keith Law: Both are good gambles, but spring training isn’t telling us anything.

Leo: Are velocities something that we can look for in Spring Training to be useful? It seems like Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin both have regained a bit on the fastball, should that point towards better success than last year for both?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s one thing I think is potentially useful – a significant change in velocity in either direction. Corey Kluber struggling to hit 90 is a real problem. Dellin Betances did that two years ago and it was a sign he was hurt.

Greg: Any legitimate plan for Garrett Richards this year? Just throw him ’til his arm falls off?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure the Red Sox have a plan, and that that’s not it.

Adam: I know you’re not a fantasy player, but each year it seems there is a guy drafted in 10th round or later that returns 1st round value. Nick Senzel a qualifier for you? He looks sharp already. Anyone else that you think could fit the profile?
Keith Law: He was a breakout candidate for me in 2020 but then came down with COVID-19 and wasn’t the same when he came back. I’m a believer, though.

Harrisburg Hal: As a fan, what is the best way to pressure MLB to move ASG in light of GA voting restrictions?
Keith Law: I doubt fans can move the needle in any way here, but I had a thought this morning: What if Black MLB players all declined invitations to play in the All-Star Game? Or announced now that they would boycott? The last thing MLB wants is that kind of publicity, not this year, not when they’re supposedly making a big push for DEI across the game.

Andy: Are the Reds kidding themselves trying Suarez at SS?
Keith Law: I mean, he was a shortstop once, and was actually a decent one. It might be a better option than anything else they have on hand.

Rick: Thanks Keith for all your work outside of baseball. Do have a baseball question though. Do you think Chisholm and/or Rodgers will eventually make it to allstar caliber players or just too many warts?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Jazz. Rodgers has two main obstacles: He can’t stay healthy, and he’s not selective enough at the plate. The latter could be improved. The former, though … well, he’s hurt again, and now losing more playing time he needs.

Michael: Hey Keith – not a prospect question, but we are hearing a lot from local media here in Philly about this being a huge Zach Eflin breakout season.  Should I buy the hype?  Have you seen anything that would indicate he is anything more that a potentially solid #3?
Keith Law: I think a solid #3 is about what he can be. The Phillies messed with his repertoire a bit, but I don’t think he ever had a higher ceiling than that, not without some significant change in his arsenal.

Kevin: Blink twice if you need help from someone forcing you to read the “mushroom coffee” ads on your podcast. I thought you pushed back at ESPN about an ad read (many moons ago), and figured fake coffee would have fit that same criteria. Either way, love the pod and thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: I have declined a couple of ads, and I often omit words from copy if I think they’re untrue or too pseudosciencey. That mushroom coffee is actually real coffee with some mushroom powder mixed in. They sent me a bag. I don’t like it.

Isaac: No one was “low” on Bobby Witt, but may we be underrating his potential? Only see his highlights, that swing gets through the zone awfully fast and mixed with that angle, it looks an awful lot like the man in Anaheim. Could Witt be a generational talent type?
Keith Law: I appreciate you prefacing that by saying no one was low on him … everyone’s got him rated pretty highly, especially for a guy who’s nearly 21 and has barely played. Even this winter I had execs from other clubs saying they weren’t sure about his hit tool, and while I know he’s been the flavor of the month, it’s still spring training and the hype is out of proportion. I don’t think he’s anything like the man in Anaheim – Trout was over a year younger on draft day, and at Witt’s age Trout was already the best player in baseball.

Freddie: Is CJ Abrams a potential #1 overall prospect, he seems to check off more boxes every time I blink
Keith Law: He checked off two more while you asked that question. And the answer is yes.

Fred: Do you still view Mize as a top of the rotation type? Seems like he gained a few ticks on his velocity. Is it just experience he needs, or is there another reason he seems to get hit harder than you’d expect considering his apparent raw stuff
Keith Law: I do still view that as his ceiling. He has to either miss more bats with his fastball or pitch with it less.

Scott: Do the A’s stay in Oakland?
Keith Law: Inertia says yes. Economics says no.

Ahammer: Is B.Doyle a legit prospect in Colorado? I have friends that are constantly hyping him, but I need more considering his age and level, or more from someone that knows what they’re talking about. These friends..don’t have the best track record, lol
Keith Law: Yes he’s legit but he really needs to play. He’s 23 with almost no pro experience and he played D2 ball in college, so we really have no idea if he can hit.

IF-land: Hi Keith, you seemed to hold up pretty well this last year, as many of us that battle mental health have had a rough year (not assuming you haven’t, but your writing has been great all year). Personally, I can’t wait for Baseball, getting to ball games will seem like a break from the mundane. Have you got out to games in person yet, last I recall your last game was scouting Veen. Hope your spring allows you to get out to games as we all enjoy your write ups
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m supposed to drive down to UVA tomorrow to see Miami and Adrian Del Castillo, which, as you remembered, will be my first game since Veen. It’s been about 54 weeks. I feel like I’m about to fly to Mars.

Sowers: Cleveland has seem to unlock the secret to develop pitchers that don’t seem to have the highest pedigree. Who would you think increases their value most in their system between Espino, Hankins, wolf, burns or the allens.  Is there a type of pitcher the develop better? Seems like burns falls more in line with the pleasac, Bieber mold
Keith Law: Espino if he stays healthy. Burns if you think Espino won’t do so.

H.cows: If Adley Rutschman was a RF, Would he still be viewed as a top 25 prospect? Is the bat good enough that it would play anywhere, or is it just that good in comparison to others at his position and stage?
Keith Law: Top 50 for sure. Top 25 might depend on the year.

Isaac: With Gimenez looking locked into the SS role in cleveland, who do you see ad the 2B in say 2023-24, seems like they have a ton of players that are pretty similar up the middle
Keith Law: I don’t think Gimenez is good enough to block their parade of SS prospects.

Rick: Apparently Kimbrel hasn’t been looking too good in Spring Training.  He hasn’t looked good since leaving Boston except for a short run at the end of last season.  He still has good stuff, but he’s reminding me of a former Cubs Closer Marmol who was all over the place. Think Kimbrel keeps the closing job or does he end up getting cut mid-season? Thanks
Keith Law: There’s a more likely option in the middle, where they keep him but he’s no longer the closer. The unavoidable truth is that closers – relievers of any sort, really – don’t last. Kimbrel held his peak longer than most.

KIL-cle: Because of the shortened season last year, should we be expecting a noticeable uptick in injuries to position players ad well as pitchers, in your opinion.
Keith Law: I wrote about that this week. I don’t know the answer – no one does – but I have an opinion, at least.

KIL-cle: Amed Rosario had a nightmare game in CF last week, but it was his 1st ever game there. Could be be an ultimate utility type for Cleveland, or would moving him maybe benefit both sides in this case?
Keith Law: As long as they just pick a position and leave him there, I think he’ll be fine. Moving him all over the place when he has no experience doing so wouldn’t help his bat.

Kevin: I know spring training stats dont matter, and last year for Dalbec was a SSS with 8 HR in 80 ABs, but realistically do you think he could hit 35-40 HR playing a full season this year?
Keith Law: I don’t. He’s going to swing and miss too much fort hat.

Jon: RIP Larry McMurtry.  Favorite novel of his?  I love The Last Picture Show.  The movie version is outstanding and might be better than the novel.  One of the great casts of all time.
Keith Law: I’ve only read Lonesome Dove, which was incredible despite its length.

Herb: It seems like many of the rules they are experimenting with in the minors seem geared to helping the running game, is that something you would like to see increase. Personally, I love going to games in the 90s and seeing Kenny Lofton get on 1st. A stolen base got the crowd going seemingly as much as anything. I think it shows the game within the game that the crowd really feeds on.
Keith Law: I do miss the running games of the ’80s and the race for 100 SBs. I think they’re exciting, but as many folks have written, they’re not a great strategy when the cost of a CS is so high.

Tony: It looks like the Marlins are going to have a pretty interesting rotation. I know your prospect rankings discussed Sanchez/Cabrera, but looking at the rotation as a whole how do you feel about those players and how to compare to each other regarding floor/ceiling?
Keith Law: I mentioned Rogers in my breakouts piece, even though I almost never include rookies, because he’s got a new slider that gives him a much higher ceiling than he had previously as a FB/CH guy with a 40 breaking ball. I don’t think the Marlins are going to see .500 this year but they’ll be the most interesting they’ve been in a decade.

Tony: If the draft were today, what would you estimate Jud Fabian’s range to be? Mid first to early second?
Keith Law: Late first to mid second, and dropping.

Wolf: Should transgender girls be able to win college scholarships in women’s sports?
Keith Law: Trans women are women.

Brent: Klaw, any idea who will fill in for Eloy in LF? I’d love for it to be Wild Thing Vaughn, but I’m a realist. Engel’s hurt too. Do you sign someone, just play 8…thanks
Keith Law: I worry about putting Vaughn in left when (as far as I know) he’s never played the OF. He might be Ryan Klesko out there. Maybe he gets hurt, maybe it impacts his bat. It’s not worth that risk.

Dungeon Master: Do you think the Mariners should go hard for one or two of the top free agents next year, especially a SS? Seems like with Kelenic, JRod, Haniger, Lewis, a bunch of solid role players, and the big 3 SP prospects they’re not far away from a pretty good team in a weakening AL West
Keith Law: I agree. Next winter is probably the beginning of the window where they should spend big to compete.

Mike: Not putting a ton of stock in spring training games, but Garrett Mitchell has a chance to be really fun, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He can really run, and there’s enough bat-to-ball there to make that play, so even if he’s never actually good he should be an exciting player.

Danyul: Hi Keith – what role do you see garrett crochet playing for the sox this year
Keith Law: Reliever only, if he stays healthy.

Nick V: Has Groome’s ceiling lowered significantly due to his injury induced absences? I understand his bust potential is through the roof right now, but has any reports on his stuff being surprisingly good/bad?
Keith Law: No, his ceiling hasn’t lowered significantly. His curveball is more a 60 now than a 70, so it’s a little lower, but that’s the only real negative indicator right now.

Luke: Keith, loved the book. Can you speak to how the base rate affects the evaluation of Mississippi high schoolers (for example)? I understand how HS catchers and pitchers form a base rate, but for a geographic area what’s the commonality that should lump them into the same group? Level of competition?
Keith Law: Yes, level of competition. Applies to cold-weather kids too, although we’ve had more successes from high schools in the northeast than in Mississippi. There could be other variables involved as well – perhaps kids from the northeast are more likely to come from economically advantaged backgrounds that let them pay for outside coaching, or train at better facilities, or just get into more games.

Guest: Loved seeing the highlights of Rocker and Leiter recently. However, every time I see their pitch counts I think of you. Does their workload concern you at all?
Keith Law: It’s at the upper end of what PitchSmart considers acceptable. I’d really like to see Vanderbilt stop pushing them so hard every week. There’s just no good reason for it.

Santaspirt: What to make of DJ LeMahieu? Barely an average hitter by wRC+ in Colorado and then completely changes in NY
Keith Law: He’s made substantial use of the ballpark in the Bronx. Look at his home runs and where they’ve landed.

Guest: I know it’s just spring training, but the way Bell and Schwarber and Zimmerman (always a slow starter) have been swinging the bat in Florida has to bode well for the Nats’ lineup depth, right? Not that they’re all going to carry 1.100 OPS all year, but if they’re hitting pretty well this year that could have a major impact on the NL East. It feels like Washington has the widest variance range between “pretty forgettable” (if the bats aren’t there) and “95 wins” (if they all come up box cars).
Keith Law: Wrong. It’s just spring training. All of those guys could suck this year (I’m not predicting that) and three good weeks in March doesn’t change the probability of that happening.

Justin: Just watching some highlights, it seems like Rocker puts the ball where he wants it more often than Leiter does the same (granted, this is just a small sample in what Pitching Ninja provides on twitter), but I think Leiter is known as being the one more likely to have good command long term.   What are some things that scouts look for to say that someone without good present command may have good command someday.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – Leiter does that at least as well as Rocker does. The biggest difference I hear from scouts on those two is that Leiter misses more bats with his fastball right now, while Rocker can show you a 70 slider (but hasn’t done so every start).

Generic MLB Player: Just so you know, I am in the absolute best shape of my career!
Keith Law: Good to hear! I am not.

justin g: Fernando Tatis was terrible the end of last year. Is it possible that his initial numbers are a mirage?
Keith Law: You’re asking if about 3 weeks in September tell us more than a year-plus of data that preceded it?

Jason (DC): Keeper league fantasy baseball and looking to add a prospect bat. Who do you like most long-term out of Nolan Gorman, Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, or Heliot Ramos? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d go Duran, Marsh, Ramos, Gorman, in that order.

Pramit: I know that you (and many) tend not to fall for the “he’s in the best shape of his life” narrative that is created during the spring, but would you say Vlad’s weight loss could result in him having a breakout this year?
Keith Law: His weight never affected him at the plate. It’s how he swings. He’s hitting the ball hard but not squaring it up enough, getting on top of it to put it on the ground. Fix that and go have a milkshake.

eric: got my second pfizer shot, no issues, and the piece of mind and hope it brings is amazing.

EVERYONE: IF YOU CAN GET VACCINATED, GET VACCINATED!
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m hoping Delaware will open it up to my category on the 1st. We’re so behind here.

Frank: Is there any chance Bobby Witt Jr makes the club for opening day?  Considering they are not going to contend this year wouldnt the royals be crazy not to manipulate his service time?
Keith Law: Witt Jr has never played a pro game outside of the complexes. I think promoting him what was once considered six levels and now would be five in one fell swoop would be, to use the technical term, crazy-go-nuts.

Jack: Is there any chance MLB actually moves the all-star game from Atlanta?
Keith Law: I doubt it – I really doubt it – but shame on everyone involved with a conscience if they don’t try.

Dave: Will Ryan McMahon ever happen?
Keith Law: I’m still in the yes camp. I know Sarah Langs of MLB.com called him a breakout candidate for 2021 too.

Eric: the apatow-type early-to-mid 2000s blockbuster comedies (40 yr old virgin, anchorman, old school, etc.) couldn’t – and shouldn’t – be made today. how does one reconcile laughing at and enjoying and quoting content that may have not struck one as super offensive 15-20 years ago, but now realizing how inappropriate and offensive it was to so many marginalized communities?
Keith Law: You have to draw that line for yourself. I believe works of art are largely products of their times. I happen to really like The Scarlet Pimpernel as a novel, but the anti-Semitic trope of the wandering Jew character would make it unpublishable today (for good reason), so it wouldn’t appear on any of my future rankings of novels, and I wouldn’t recommend that my kids read it. It popped up on a reading list for my daughter’s school when she was in 8th grade and I suggested that they reconsider it. Yet I also can recognize that the adventure story within is one of the best I’ve read in literature.

Kevin: what are the odds we see either a work stoppage or a strike for the 22 season?
Keith Law: Better than even.

Cory: Would you say that Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter are clearly separating themselves from the rest of the draft class in their own tier, or is that still too early to say?
Keith Law: Take Lawlar out of that … he hasn’t looked like a top 3 guy so far. I don’t think 1-1 can be anyone but the two Vandy boys right now, but I also don’t think there’s an enormous gap between them and the next tier of college guys (Davis, del Castillo, Hoglund).

Mike: Banning the shift is ridiculous, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Is it at least slightly concerning that someone as polished as Torkelson has struck out 13 times in 24 PA this spring?
Keith Law: No.

Guest: In which film did you find the fictitious elements to be more distracting or detracting overall, Mank or The Trial of the Chicago 7?  For me it was the former because it felt out of place to begin with, in addition to being factually inaccurate, whereas in the latter those elements felt somewhat organic to the plot.
Keith Law: The latter, because they were so obviously fake. Sorkin just couldn’t help himself.

Dan: Why do you hate Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: We were at Frost Gelato in Arizona at the same time. He was in front of me in line and he took the last scoop of Sea Salt Caramel. I’ll never forgive him.

RIP Jessica Walter: “I love all my children equally.”

“I don’t care for Gob.”
Keith Law: I’ll leave when I’m good and ready.

Mac: Do you really think MLB will crack down on pitchers using foreign substances and if so how do you see this affecting the (many) pitchers who doctor the baseball going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just at a cursory level, to do something without doing everything.

Jason: Will cryptocurrency end badly for a lot of people and investors?
Keith Law: Hasn’t every bubble, ever?

Bob: Bos and Tex both claimed that if scouts had seen more of Yorke and Carter they would have been drafted higher. They’ve both been to instructs and Yorke has been in camp with Bis so they have potentially been seen a bit. Should Sox and Rangers fans be feeling any more confident in those picks?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy that at all … it’s not that scouts didn’t see Yorke or Carter, but that they saw them and didn’t like what they saw. I had no trouble finding scouts who saw those guys last June.

Matt: Any “just missed” breakout predictions or players you considered but didn’t include in your article?
Keith Law: A reader mentioned Gavin Lux in the comments under that article and I think that’s a great call. I’ll gladly co-opt that pick and give them the credit.

Jesse B: How quick do you think Andy Pages can move through  the minors?
Keith Law: Really depends on the swing-and-miss. I just don’t think we know enough on him to say if he’s 3 years away or 4-5 years.

PJ: I’m curious about your view on eliminating the filibuster.  On one hand, it feels like the Dems could get a lot done in the next 18 months.  On the other hand, the Republicans could EASILY take back the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and there isn’t exactly a Supreme Court Democrats could use as a backstop for terrible far-right legislation that could pass.
Keith Law: It’s starkly anti-democratic and there have been calls to remove it from multiple people across the political spectrum for decades. If removing that restores voting rights before 2022, it’s worth doing.

Randy: Looking for some new places to buy coffee beans online. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: My most recent order was from Deeper Roots in Cincinnati (a Rwanda and an espresso blend).

Scott: I know how strong you feel about domestic abuse, do you think there is a legitimate quasi-every day center fielder option in the Phillies mix right now besides Odubel Hererra? Feels like the team is looking for an excuse not to give him the job but unless they’re believers in Roman Quinn bunting twice a game will they end up throwing their hands up and saying ‘we had no other choice’? How do you rank Kingery/Quinn/Haseley/Moniak/Haseley?
Keith Law: I’d put Kingery there in a heartbeat and put Odubel on a slow boat to nowhere.

Ridley: Editors make writers better and the writer gets credit for it. Bragging about an editor-free platform would be a bit of a self-own, wouldn’t it?

Also, the kind of writer who longs to free themselves from the editors is almost always the kind of writer who most needs them (in my experience, at least).
Keith Law: Sacca did back off his comments, and was gracious about much of the criticism he received. I don’t like seeing anyone kick a group that’s down the way editors – whose jobs have been gradually disappearing for 20 years, because, as you said, they do the work and don’t get credit, so any private equity douchebro could walk in and sack them without compunction – are right now.

JT: Would you let Manoah start the year in the pen, or is the surer way to starting still starting in the minors, such as they are?
Keith Law: I’d be fine starting him in relief and moving him to the rotation in June or so. Great way to break in a young starter.

Gerald: I recall that you were bullish on Ohtani as a pitcher but skeptical that he would be a productive MLB hitter. Has he exceeded your expectations as a hitter and, if so, has anything changed in his approach?
Keith Law: Correct and he has exceeded my expectations, but he also hasn’t really hit full-time. His swing gets so long I’m amazed teams aren’t trying to crush him with velocity inside more often. He has to guess right to get to it.

The Seaward: In spite of the governor’s ridiculous statement, most responsible businesses in Texas still requires masks. What on earth do the Rangers think they’re going to gain on opening day that will be bigger than the hit they’re going to take for the outbreak they cause?
Keith Law: They’re betting, as Gov. Abbott and so many political leaders have, that there won’t be an outbreak, and they’ll avoid any repercussions. Even here in DE, the Governor reopened things too early, and all our indicators are rising again … but it’s slow and nobody is making anything of it, even though the connection between looser restrictions and rising R0 and daily case rates is obvious. We’d need an explosion in cases for anyone to get mad. If there’s no explosion in cases after some Rangers home games, no one will care.

Owen: If killing the filibuster means that DC and/or Puerto Rico get admitted as states and there are 2-4 new Democratic Senators who will make it much harder for the GQP to regain power for the foreseeable future (plus, obviously, restored voting rights), it will be well worth it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Senate aside, there’s no fair and reasoned argument why the 3.8 million U.S. citizens in those two jurisdictions should lack the representations in Congress that the rest of us enjoy.

Punk in Drublic: Who are a few guys outside your top 100 prospects who you think have the most offensive upside?  Thanks.  And keep sticking to whatever is on your mind
Keith Law: Austin Hendrick, Pedro Leon, Jeremiah Jackson, Lewin Diaz, Mark Vientos, Patrick Bailey, Brenton Doyle.

Guest: How should MLB reconcile that the methods to win baseball games most efficiently (lots of swing and miss and K’s and not many balls in play) is completely opposite to the most exciting aspects of the game (balls in play, stolen bases, etc)?  Are there rule changes that could actually be effective instead of “ban the shift” windowdressing?
Keith Law: Sure, but they require will, and agreement on both sides. I like the idea of limiting pickoff throws, because it might increase basestealing, and because pickoff throws are the third most boring thing that can happen in a baseball game (number 2 is a manager arguing with an umpire, especially after he’s been ejected, and number 1 is a brawl).
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – I have to finish my season predictions column in the next hour. I should be back for another chat next Thursday, and if you haven’t already pre-ordered it, the paperback edition of my second book The Inside Game will be out in just 11 days. Thank you all so much for reading.

Another Round.

Among the Big Six categories at the Oscars, the biggest surprise nomination was, I think, the Best Director nod for Thomas Vinterberg, director and writer of the Danish-language movie Another Round (Druk), which also scored one of the five nominations for Best International Feature Film. The latter is understandable, especially given how universal (if very man-centric) its themes are, but the former … well, I have a feeling it might not entirely be because of Vinterberg’s work on the film, which is streaming on Hulu and can be rented on amazon.

Another Round follows four male, middle-aged high school teachers who are bored with their lives and decide to try to maintain a constant level of intoxication, starting at a .05 BAC, throughout the workday, only stopping at 8 pm. The immediate results are positive – they’re happier, they lighten up, they connect more with their students, and in the case of Martin (Mads Mikkelsen), his marriage seems to improve – but the effects are temporary, and as they decide to push their luck and crank up the BAC, the wheels start to come off for all four of them, forcing them to reconsider their plans and their purpose in this experiment in the first place.

For a movie that touches on some deep material like getting to middle age, thinking your best years might be behind you, wondering if some of your major life choices (at work, in marriage) have been mistakes, Another Round is often delightfully silly. All four lead actors do a pretty good drunk impression, reminiscent of Parks & Recreation‘s Snake Juice episode, and watching these somewhat awkward 40- to 55-year-old men (Mikkelsen is 55, and I don’t think Martin is supposed to be any older than that) dance and stumble about, or even just smile the smile of a mildly inebriated man can be charming – especially since their bad behavior mostly comes at their own expense. The script offers some balance, as one of the men struggles to control his drinking once they start ramping up their BACs, but the general tone is one of seizing life and enjoying the moment – and if a little alcohol helps you get there, what’s the harm?

Martin’s reactions especially seem to reflect those of someone dealing with depression who finally gets some form of treatment, whether CBT or medication, and starts to wake up to the life around him. Danish binge-drinking culture (the film’s Danish title literally means “binge drinking”) is strong enough that the story here probably isn’t metaphorical, but if some viewers’ takeaway is to do something about their midlife malaises, Vinterberg would probably consider that a success. On the other hand, this is a very narrow look at life, very much that of men whose biggest problem in life is ennui. Women are tangential to the story, and the two men of the four who have children aren’t exactly carrying much of the child-rearing load here, while they seem to have job security, without any worries about money or health. That doesn’t detract from the film’s entertainment value, but there’s something very frivolous about the whole exercise that doesn’t compare well to the other leading films from 2020.

Another Round swept the four main awards for which it was nominated at the European Film Awards, winning for Best Picture, Director, Actor (Mikkelsen), and Screenwriter, after winning the same four honors at the Robert-Prisen, the Danish equivalent to the Oscars. That leads to the big surprise in the Academy Award nominations, and the truly tragic story behind Another Round. Vinterberg wrote this story in part with inspiration from his 19-year-old daughter’s stories of the drinking culture of Danish teenagers, but four days after filming began, she was killed in a car accident in Belgium, hit by a truck driver who was looking at his phone and didn’t see that her car had stopped. Filming did resume and Vinterberg dedicated it to her memory. Much of the English-language coverage of the movie has included her death and its effect on both Vinterberg and the film (he altered the script to make it more life-affirming), and I wonder if that drove support for him in this category. There isn’t a great argument on the merits for his nomination over Regina King for One Night in Miami or even Armando Iannucci for the overlooked The Personal History of David Copperfield. This just isn’t that kind of film – it’s good, entertaining, ridiculous in a good way, but I don’t think the direction or script really rise to the level of what I’d expect for a Best Director nominee.

Promising Young Woman.

I still can’t believe Camilla Parker-Bowles is now a two-time Oscar nominee, but she absolutely deserves it.

Emerald Fennell, previously best known for portraying Prince Charles’ affair partner on seasons 3 and 4 of The Crown, now has nominations to her credit for writing the screenplay for and directing Promising Young Woman, a brilliant, shocking, and powerful revenge story that feels incredibly well-timed. Featuring a tremendous lead performance from Carey Mulligan, the film earned five nominations – two for Fennell, one for Mulligan, one for Editing, and, perhaps the big surprise of the five, one for Best Picture. (It’s available to rent on amazon and other streaming services.)

Mulligan plays Cassie, who, as the film opens, is in a bar, alone, and so drunk she can barely sit up straight. A guy in the bar offers to help her get home, but then takes her to his place, where he tries to sexually assault her, at which point Mulligan looks right up at the camera to reveal that she’s stone sober – and she confronts the creep before leaving. This is a regular weekend act for her, and we learn that she dropped out of medical school when her classmate, Nina Fisher, was raped by a classmate at a party, and the school did nothing about it. She’s working in a hipster coffee shop when another classmate, Ryan (Bo Burnham), walks in, and the two start gradually start to have a meet-cute – just at the same time that Cassie gets wind that Nina’s rapist is about to get married, at which point she launches a more elaborate plan to take revenge on everyone involved in the rape and abortive investigation.

Fennell leaves all kinds of clues in the film to indicate that Cassie’s calm exterior demeanor hides the fact that she’s not quite right. Over the course of the story, we learn how Cassie’s life seems to have just stopped after the assault and immediate aftermath. She lives with her parents, who say she has no friends and hasn’t had a boyfriend in years. She’s still wearing a childlike pattern of pastel colors on her nails. Her wardrobe, which seems rather extensive, often veers towards clothing maybe ten years too young for her. She’s supposed to be 30, but alternates between looking 25 and 40 throughout the film. She’s our heroine, and there’s a distinct pleasure in watching her dish it out to various awful men across the film, but there’s also something amiss here, from how and why she left medical school on to just how deranged her plans for the rapist and his enablers are, and Fennell does a spectacular job of balancing those elements so that the conclusion can still work.

The ending is shocking and the subject of many thinkpieces already – this Variety piece has spoilers and does an excellent job breaking it down, and the video with Fennell and Mulligan is well worth the time – and I haven’t stopped thinking about it since we watched the movie. Listening to Fennell in that video, in addition to getting a window on to her brilliance as a writer, changed how I interpreted the ending, and that in turn changed some of my thoughts on what came before. Cassie’s life just stopped after Nina was assaulted and everyone – the school administrators, most of their classmates, even one of Nina and Cassie’s best friends – chose to look the other way, and as the film progresses it becomes clearer that the revenge fantasy is at least mixed with the story of Cassie’s unraveling, a satirical condemnation of a system stacked against victims but also a tragedy of a woman whose promise – who was, at least, on her way to living the life her parents wanted for her – is gone. The fact that Cassie would take the risks she ultimately takes without any regard for the effect her injury or death might have on her parents, for example, is a mostly unspoken indicator that Fennell didn’t write Cassie as a flawless heroine.

I’ve seen four of the five Best Actress nominees so far, and Mulligan would be my pick for the award, although the one I haven’t seen is Andra Day, who won the Golden Globe in this category, and the other three nominees are all outstanding – this might be the most loaded category of the season. I’ve also seen four of the five Best Original Screenplay nominees (I’m waiting on Minari), and would choose this over Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, or the extra-Sorkiny The Trial of the Chicago 7. I wouldn’t put it over Nomadland for Best Picture, but it might be my #2, with Minari and The Father still on my list to see. I’ll be pulling for this to take home those two honors, though, as it’s tremendous even when there are minor plot points I wish had unfurled differently.

(My wife and I discuss every movie we watch at length, so her opinions always appear somewhere in these reviews, but here she deserves particular credit for shaping my interpretation of this film. As a man, there are issues here I’ve just never had to face in the world, and her perspective was invaluable.)

Stick to baseball, 3/20/21.

I had one new post for subscribers to the Athletic this week, looking at some breakout candidates for 2021. A reader suggested Gavin Lux in the comments as well, and I agree with them – he’s also a very good bet to break out, especially since it seems like he’s going to get the playing time to do so.

On the Keith Law Show this week, I spoke to my friend Tim Grierson about his new book This is How You Make a Movie, the Oscar nominations, and his Cardinal fandom. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6th.

And now, the links…

Mank.

Mank led all films with ten Oscar nominations this year, and after seeing the film (which is on Netflix), my reaction is best summed up by the GIF of Ryan Reynolds saying, “but why?” I think the answer is actually obvious – it’s a talky black-and-white movie about Hollywood, all things the voters find hard to resist – but it doesn’t make it any easier to accept this adequate if somewhat boring movie taking home spots that could have gone to many more deserving films.

Mank is Herman Mankiewicz, a cantankerous screenwriter who was often called in to ‘fix’ scripts by other writers from the 1920s through the 1940s, and who worked with Orson Welles on the script for Citizen Kane, which won them both the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. The film tells the story of the writing of that script, with flashbacks explaining how Mank managed to become persona non grata in much of Hollywood, and his relationship with actress Marion Davies and partnership with her nephew Charles Lederer.

I really enjoy some of Orson Welles’ work, and appreciate Citizen Kane for its artistic merit and historical importance, and I can certainly get into some making-of stories, but I can’t express how little I cared about what was happening on the screen in Mank. It’s the story of a self-destructive white man handed one gift after another only to throw them away via drink, gambling, or just general assholery. It’s also told through a poorly-structured series of flashbacks that bounce around in time so often it makes it too hard to follow when things are happening, especially since Gary Oldman is 20 years older than Mankiewicz was in 1940, when the latter wrote Citizen Kane, and thus nearly 30 years older than Mankiewicz is supposed to be in flashbacks, with no real concession made to the age gap.

Oldman is busy chewing scenery when he isn’t throwing it back up, and it’s especially frustrating because it seems like he took the message the Academy gave him when they named him Best Actor for a lengthy Winston Churchill impression in Darkest Hour as a sign to go even further in this direction, forgetting the actor he showed he could be in Léon, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or even Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, where he used his scene-chewing ability to far better purpose. Amanda Seyfried earned her first Oscar nomination for her work here as Davies in a role that doesn’t have a lot of screen time and is probably most notable for her accent here; I’m not sure she does much more than Lily Collins does as Mank’s amanuensis Rita, and really none of the women here are that well-written in the first place. The most compelling supporting performance might be Tom Burke’s as Welles; Burke absolutely nails Welles’ voice in a way I found thoroughly distracting (in a good way), although he loses it a little in a critical scene late in the film where he and Mankiewicz feud and break over the final edits and what credit Mank might receive.

Mank is just so self-indulgent and so insular that I couldn’t help but think back to The Artist, which won Best Picture a decade ago for being a black-and-white movie that told everyone how great movies are, as well as for its central gimmick as a mostly-silent film. They’re movies that appeal not just to the presumed interests of Academy voters, but to their identities: Both give movies an importance beyond reality, and, unfortunately, both rely on the assumption that viewers will care far more about inside-baseball stories about how movies are made than they actually do. The best movies about making movies are great movies first that happen to have elements of moviemaking within their stories – Singin’ in the Rain, ostensibly a story about the first talkies, is far more a tale of fakery and integrity, along with a slapdash romance and some great dance numbers; Boogie Nights, a movie about the golden age of porn, is really about this group of misfits and outcasts who form (and break) familial bonds while working in an industry that embraces them for their weirdness. Mank is a movie about a white guy who got more chances than he deserved and drank them all away. It made me want to pour myself a tall one more than it made me want to go watch Citizen Kane or any of the classic films of that era.

As for those nominations, David Fincher getting a Best Director nod over Regina King for One Night in Miami is just … it’s exhausting. And that latter film missing out on Best Picture with two slots still unfilled and Mank getting one of the eight nominations is baffling. I’d have given Gary Oldman’s spot in Best Actor to Dev Patel for David Copperfield, and I think it’s telling that Mank‘s screenwriter, Fincher’s father Jack, didn’t get a nomination for Best Original Screenplay, especially with the intricate flashback sequences making this story harder to follow. Fincher’s done some great work, and this project had to be more personal to him than anything he’s done before, but if this film had received a theatrical release, I bet it would have tanked, and perhaps taken some of its Oscar helium with it.

Sound of Metal.

This week’s Oscar nominations included a bunch of surprises, including Sound of Metal, available now on Amazon Prime, earning a Best Picture nod among its six overall nominations. It’s an extraordinarily well-acted piece, with well-earned nominations for Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci, with a story that has its heart in the right place but that has some plot holes I found it impossible to overlook.

Ahmed plays Ruben, the drummer for a two-piece hard rock band called Blackgammon along with his girlfriend, singer-guitarist Lou (Olivia Cooke). During one of their shows, he notices his hearing has almost vanished, and a subsequent trip to a doctor reveals that he’s lost about ¾ of his hearing, and while Ruben doesn’t want to accept it at first, it’s permanent and will require him giving up his career. He’s also a recovering addict, clean for four years, but when he tells Lou about his hearing loss, she freaks out and calls his sponsor, who quickly arranges a place for him a house for deaf people recovering from addiction run by Joe (Raci). Ruben spends at least several weeks at the house, gradually adjusting to his deafness, learning American Sign Language and working with some deaf kids at a local camp, but still wants to get the implants he thinks will save his hearing and his career – but that doesn’t work out at all like he planned.

Ahmed and Raci are this film, no offense to Cooke, who is fine in a modest role (other than her eyebrows, which appear to have been bleached in an unfortunate industrial accident). Ahmed wears this haunted look through so much of Sound of Metal that defines Ruben’s inability or unwillingness to accept his deafness, and that cuts through even scenes where he’s supposed to be happy. You can feel his frustration at the hand he’s been dealt – or that he’s dealt himself through his music, although that question is never acknowledged in the film – in almost every scene, but when he can no longer deny that he’s never getting back to where he once was, Ahmed delivers a moment that drives home the devastation. Raci’s nomination has to be the feel-good story of awards season, as he’s 72, with a limited resume in film and TV; Wikipedia has him appearing in just seven films before this, all in minor roles. Raci is the son of deaf parents, so he knew ASL already and I presume is very familiar with deaf culture, but without the credibility and compassion he provides in his role as the leader of the rehab house and a mentor who takes a particular interest in Ruben’s case, the film wouldn’t work. Once he exits the story, you can feel a little of the air escape, because the interactions between Ruben and Joe are the center of the film, and also its most credible elements.

The script works too hard to get Ruben to the rehab house, and struggles to give him a realistic path once he leaves. Ruben sees one doctor for a hearing test, and the doctor tells him about cochlear implants, but there’s no extensive consultation and somehow Ruben thinks the implants will restore his previous hearing – continuing to believe this right up until he gets the implants and has them activated. You don’t get cochlear implants without a long consultation first, and no doctor is going to wait until after the surgery (as Ruben’s does) to explain that implants don’t let you hear through your ears again. When Ruben reveals his deafness to Lou, she immediately reacts as if he’s relapsed, before he’s shown any indications of a problem. After Ruben gets his cochlear implants and asks Joe if he can stay a few more weeks while he waits for the activation, Joe tells him to leave immediately – which itself seems unrealistic, and antithetical to this sort of self-help program – and somehow Ruben, who said he was broke, ends up on a plane to Paris, where he shows up at the house of Lou’s father, who has never met Ruben and didn’t seem to know he was coming. There are just too many of these little plot conveniences for the film’s good, especially since some of them could have been addressed with modest changes.

The film landed six nominations, including the two for Ahmed and Raci; Ahmed has no chance to win against the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) but would certainly be a worthy winner, while Raci seems like he’s going to lose to Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) yet would also be deserving of the award. I understand both of those nominations as well as the one for Best Sound, since so much here depends on the way the movie manipulates sound, often putting you into Ruben’s head to show how little he’s hearing. The nomination for Best Original Screenplay, however, seems to reward Sound of Metal for its greatest weakness – a script that takes shortcuts to get its main character where he needs to be – and why the movie ultimately fell short of Best Picture status for me.

Stick to baseball, 3/15/21.

I have one new post up for subscribers to the Athletic, looking at prospects I can’t wait to see when minor league games resume. I also held a Klawchat last week.

On the Keith Law Show last week, I spoke with Cleveland right-hander Triston McKenzie about his development as a pitcher and his experiences as a Black ballplayer. On this week’s episode, I spoke with film critic Tim Grierson about his new book This is How You Make a Movie, the Oscar nominations, and his Cardinal fandom. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the new game Holi: Festival of Colors, played on a 3-D board that’s immediately striking and that lends itself to some novel strategies, with almost no random elements at all.

For more of my writing, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

number9dream.

David Mitchell’s second novel, number9dream, is beautifully written but the most derivative of the five novels of his that I’ve read so far. Mitchell is an unabashed fan of the works of Haruki Murakami, but here he picks all of the wrong parts of Murakami’s works to mimic, with a story that never comes together and ends on a note that would make even less sense if you haven’t read his first novel, Ghostwritten.

number9dream is ostensibly the story of Eiji Miyake, a 20-year-old student who was raised by his mother and later his grandparents, and who sets out from his rural island home to Tokyo to try to track down his father’s identity. Along the way, he has a series of improbable encounters with yakuza, hackers, detectives, and, of course, a beautiful woman in whom he takes an interest. Mitchell divides the book into eight chapters – the ninth is the ending – each of which roughly comprises one of those adventures in Eiji’s quest to figure out who his father is and force some sort of meeting with him.

I enjoyed Murakami’s two big novels, The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore, tremendously, even acknowledging some of Murakami’s flaws as a writer (such as his inability or unwillingness to write compelling female characters). His use of magical realism and creation of immersive dreamscapes make for incredibly compelling reads that I find I can’t put down – but when he hasn’t been able to cast that spell, as in Killing Commendatore, it becomes tedious, like you’ve seen behind the magician’s curtain and realized how every trick is done.

number9dream feels more like the latter kind of Murakami novel, probably because Mitchell is trying too hard to emulate another writer, when, as would be clear in some of his later novels, he’s best when he’s just being David Mitchell. The series of events that befall Eiji are so improbable, often with over-the-top violence that borrows from Murakami’s worst instincts in that department – even those two Murakami novels I most enjoyed have one scene of horrifying violence apiece – that I couldn’t get caught up in any parts of the story or, most importantly, the major mystery of who Eiji’s father is or whether he’ll find him.

Mitchell’s use of dream/fantasy sequences early in the novel is also offputting, and he just drops that gimmick well before the halfway point. Eiji’s crush on Ai, a server at the coffee shop he visits at the start of the novel while following a lead on his father through the lawyer who has coordinated payments from his father for his care and upbringing, is fine, but the way she reciprocates doesn’t feel realistic at all to the character or women in general, falling into white-knight fantasy territory as well. There isn’t a well-written woman in this book, in fact, which I don’t think is typical of Mitchell – but it is typical of Murakami and the latter’s worst trait as an author.

I’ve read five of Mitchell’s eight novels so far, and this is easily his worst. It’s derivative, but worse, Eiji and his quest are just not compelling storylines – more so once it becomes clear early in the novel that if he finds his father at all, it’s not likely to be a satisfying resolution for him or for the reader. Eiji looking for his father is a good start on narrative greed, but Mitchell doesn’t keep it going, because ultimately Eiji’s reason for trying to find his father’s identity appears to be nothing more than curiosity – it’s not money, it’s not a strong emotional need, it’s just a mystery this goofy kid wants to solve. Maybe that’s uncharitable to Eiji or Mitchell, but I know the author can craft more gripping plots than this one, yet the most interesting parts here are the non sequiturs that hint at his other books (such as the Voorman Problem). I’ve got three Mitchell novels left to read and I imagine this will end up at the bottom of my rankings once I’m through.

Next up: I’m many books behind in reviews, but right now I’m reading both Barack Obama’s A Promised Land and Tim Grierson’s This is How You Make a Movie.

Klawchat 3/11/21.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my list of prospects I can’t wait to see live in 2021, with one or two names for all 30 MLB teams.

Keith Law: No one gets hurt if they don’t act funny. Klawchat.

Dave: Got your tickets for the opening day superspreader event in Arlington?
Keith Law: I have to say I’m not keen to go to Texas at all unless I’m fully vaccinated. It’s a problem with multiple first rounders in the state.

Max G: Hey Keith, hope your first ski trip was both fun and painless!
Keith Law: It was actually my second ski trip, but my first in 31 years – so long that Brodie, the ski resort where I went in 1990, has been closed for over a decade. My wife is a much more avid skier and skied circles around me, but I didn’t get hurt and eventually finished on some short blue runs. Still working on stopping, though.

Eddie: How do you view the depth of hitting in this upcoming draft? It seems to lack offensive star power from the outside
Keith Law: I think that’s accurate. There could be a corner bat or two who emerge as late first round types like Aaron Sabato last year, where they really have to hit given their positional limitations, but I’m not confident in any of those names yet.

Isaac: On pure upside, is it Leiter and Lawler in the draft? Is Lawler a 1.1 upside type of player? Haven’t had a chance to see much about him. Thanks
Keith Law: I think most scouts would put Rocker and Hill in there too. And if you really mean pure upside, there are guys like James Wood who have enormous ceilings but also could fail to get out of A-ball because their hit tools might not be there.

Isaac: I’ve read that Tyler soderstrom looked good in the fall at instructs, was there anything in particular that you know of that stood out? Would you keep him behind the plate?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he hit extremely well and looked like he had very little chance to remain behind the plate. I’d probably give him a year there first before making a decision – usually I say to leave players at their toughest positions as long as you can, but if he’s not going to catch OR you just think his bat is so advanced that catching is going to slow his development, just move him to third base.

Tyler: In cleveland we have been hearing about valera’s swing for a few years but haven’t been able to see it in person yet. Does he have high upside offensive potential or his it more of hometown wishing? Or Planez for that matter. We seem to not be able to groom OF bats like we do other positions
Keith Law: Valera does have high upside as a hitter and was on my top 100 because of that. Alexfri Planez is much less of a known commodity because he’s barely played – I believe he broke a hamate bone after just a handful of games in 2019, so he’s barely been scouted. That injury should be completely healed, with strength returned, by now.

Tim (Columbus): Who is the better offensive player between Rutchsman and Torkleson?
Keith Law: I think Torkelson. But it’s not an enormous difference.

Jerry: Do you prefer an assigned closer, or is it better in your opinion to have everyone available when needed, not so much time specific?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s this black or white. I don’t think an assigned closer is necessary or optimal, especially since it would often require a pitcher to work too often on little to no rest. I don’t want my best reliever limited to one inning, and I don’t want him throwing three days in a row or four times in five days. However, knowing who you’re going to use in what situation is helpful for a manager beforehand. You don’t want him making too many battlefield decisions – some things you can plan before the games, so you do so, and then when the unexpected happens then you make those spur of the moment decisions.

Paul: If the Mets sign Lindor long term would Mauricio have enough bat to justify a move to 3rd?
Keith Law: I believe he will, although he’s not there yet, and it’s quite likely that Mauricio will be the better defender than Lindor by the time he reaches the majors (when Lindor will probably be 29 or 30).

Steven: Who has more star potential: Austin Hendrick or Luis Matos?
Keith Law: Hendrick might have more star potential but Matos is more likely to become a star.

Mindful: In a perfect world scenario where a player hits every aspect of their potential, who would be the best player in this upcoming draft? Is it Leiter, is that why you have him at 1, or is he more of a combination of potential and most likely to fulfill it? I suppose I always view a HS SS/CF as that “most potential” type.  Thanks for your time
Keith Law: Leiter has the ceiling/floor combination teams usually want at 1-1 now. I don’t think he’s the only or obvious choice at 1, and he may very well end up at 2 or lower in future rankings. I will say that last weekend, according to a scout I know who saw Vandy, Rocker was the better of the two, with a plus-plus slider he didn’t have the first two weekends, while Leiter’s breaking ball was closer to average. So it’s going to fluctuate.

addoeh: Who wins an Elmo-off, you or Passan?
Keith Law: I will put my Elmo and Cookie Monster impressions up against anybody.

Ben (MN): I recently participated in a virtual cocktail class to support a local bar. We made daiquiries (which I didn’t know are supposed to be non-blended) and the bartender talked all about the different types of rum. I didn’t realize there were such differences between Cuban, Jamaican, French, etc. I know you’re a rum fan, but do you have a favorite style of rum or any favorite rum-based cocktails? The bartender recommended Plantation 3 Stars as a good “workhorse” rum for newbies.
Keith Law: Plantation 3 stars is a blended white rum, which I generally avoid because it has less of the caramel notes I appreciate in rum. For mixing, I like anything aged in the 2-8 year range. Appleton has some excellent, inexpensive rums in that category, as does El Brugal. For sipping, I’d go with at least 10 years of aging. They mellow out substantially past that point. Unaged rum tastes too much like medicine.

Guest: In your write up of the top draft prospects, do you believe the top few are relatively close together or is Leiter (and maybe others) a cut above. I ask because I’m curious if the Pirates will try for an underslot deal if there is a relatively similar group at the top to have money to use elsewhere in the draft. Thanks!
Keith Law: I might do that, if they’re taking one of those top four guys – or someone else who emerges as a worthy 1-1 candidate. What you don’t want to see is them reaching down for someone who isn’t 1-1 good, like the Phillies did with Moniak in 2016, just to go over-slot with later picks.

RebWiseau: Sometimes there is a gap between how fans of a team view a particular prospect and how prospect evaluators view the same player (for example, the Red Sox fan community is much higher on Jarren Duran than you and your colleagues). Have you noticed any sort of profile for players like this where the fans are more excited than the industry about the future of the player?
Keith Law: Yes, they tend to be local media favorites. Local reporters write about these players, especially if they’re getting good info from player development, but fans don’t run that through the filter where every team likes their own players more than the industry does. Sometimes that player turns out to be every bit as good as the team says – Paul Goldschmidt comes to mind. Usually they don’t.
Keith Law: and I like Duran, BTW.

davealden53: Dee Strange-Gordon is making a case to be the Reds’ shortstop.  (Not a difficult case to make given that Kyle Farmer is the incumbent.)  Can Strange-Gordon regain value or is his bat gone for good?
Keith Law: I’d be more surprised if he can play shortstop. He was never great there in the first place and he’s how many years gone?

Steve Guitar: Intermediate guitarist getting back into it. Have you suggestions for both acoustic, acoustic-electric, and electric  Mitchell gear and any guitar pedals?  I remember you had a Mitchell acoustic no cutaway, they seem to make great valued instruments.  Thx for your help, I’d like to get back to playing regularly, (and getting my second vaccine today, f*ck yeah!)
Keith Law: I wish I could help but I own very little gear … I love playing but have never felt like I could justify spending much money on it.

Rich: Will you be doing a breakout candidates column this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll run this week. I do that column every year, and predictions too.

davealden53: I know that you don’t consider players like Ha-seong Kim in your prospect rankings, but do you have any insights about how he will adjust to Major League pitching?
Keith Law: I heard quite a bit of skepticism about his ability to make enough contact to be a regular here when talking to scouts who saw him live or evaluated him on video. I’ve never seen him in person.

Chip: Klaw (kaw!, kaw!), do you think Rutschman can hit in MLB this year?
Keith Law: It would depend on your standard. Hit enough to be an average regular? Yeah, I’ll buy that. Hit enough to be a star in 2021? Seems optimistic.

Ben (MN): In this era, I don’t understand how teams can have an “edge” or be so much better than other teams in certain areas, other than in short stints. For instance, the Athletic had an article this week about whether some teams are better at increasing velocity than others. It now seems commonplace for teams to target staff from these smart organizations, and it would follow that those staff bring knowledge of that “edge” with them. When teams do find an edge, do they usually have some kind of internal strategy to keep that edge as long as possible?  Do teams just assume that edge is temporary and look for the next competitive advantage?
Keith Law: The last sentence is probably the most accurate but if teams really wanted to retain some of those edges for longer, they’d pay their staff more, rather than shedding staff as so many teams did last year under cover of the pandemic.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! I have not heard much on Yadier Alvarez since the Dodgers DFA’d him last spring. Is he still with the club or have a future in the majors?
Keith Law: I may be way out of date but I thought he’d walked away. He has – had? – a ridiculously good arm, though.

Noah: Getting my second dose of the vaccine on Monday!  How do we convince the 30% or so anti-vax people to get it?  Herd immunity is usually cited as being achieved at around 90%.  You’re good with the numbers and facts and whatnot.  If only 70% get vaccinated, will those that are vaccinated be safe?
Keith Law: If you’re vaccinated, you’ll be safe from severe illness leading to hospitalization and possibly death. That’s a good outcome, but we aren’t likely to reach enough people without mandates (school & workplace) to get rid of the virus as a regular feature of life. You can be vaccinated and still get a mild case. Also, it’s not that 30% of the population is anti-vaccine; maybe 2-3% are truly anti-vaxxers, but the population as a whole has been fed so much disinformation, with Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube particularly culpable for letting it fester on their services, that people who get all their other shots (or get them for their kids) are now needlessly hesitant over this one.

Chip: Is Kenyon Yovan’s bat impressive enough to make him a prospect at DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – enough to be drafted, yes, but not enough to be, say, a top two rounds prospect.

Gums: Taillon seems to be the latest to switch to a shorter arm swing, a la Shane Bieber. Do you believe this lessens the injury risk for pitchers, and does it bode well for Leiter’s future as he has a similar arm path?
Keith Law: I don’t know about injury risk, but it has worked for many pitchers who had trouble repeating longer arm strokes, leading to worse command.

Adam D.: Do you believe the narrative that we have reached a “golden era” for prospects with more potentially high-end, young players in the minors than ever before? Or do you feel like the increased focus on prospects in general have just made a lot more of them known to fans in general, thus making it seem like there are more GUYS out there?
Keith Law: I think prospects are coming into pro ball bigger and stronger than they have at any point in history. That’s probably a big reason.

Phil in the UK: True or False: Counting sacrifice flies against a hitter’s on-base percentage is illogical, and the rule should be changed.
Keith Law: False. It’s completely logical. A sac fly results in an out. It should count as an at bat too.

Arty: Derrick Goold ran an article about how Delvin Perez committed himself to adding muscle and he’s supposed put on 20 pounds since 2019. I was a bit surprised he was invited to major league camp, but apparently reports on his progress are positive. From what you’ve seen of him, would getting stronger and adding weight help put him back into true prospect consideration?
Keith Law: He also has to hit. Yes, he’s had trouble with impact because he’s so small, but really he has to hit for us to have any discussion of his prospect status. Other than his draft spring, which ended with a positive test for a PED, he has never really hit well enough to project as an everyday player.

Noah: If the Mets don’t sign Lindor to an extension ASAP, can we stop pretending like Steve Cohen has done anything fundamentally good or different than the Wilpons?  In fact, he might be actively worse.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that assessment.

John: Will voting rights actually be preserved prior to 2022?
Keith Law: God I hope so. It’s going to take some actual courage on the part of some Senate Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two.

Ben: Where would the top three arms in this year’s class (Leiter, Rocker, & Hill) rank among the last few pitching classes? Is this trio stronger than some of the last classes of top college arms?
Keith Law: I think they are – they’re at least on par with recent years. Likely better than 2020, definitely better than 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016.

ChrisP: Is Braves’ Michael Harris a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More potential than GUY right now. Has to go out and hit. If he does that, he’s a GUY because of his other tools.

Sean M.: Also, just bought Smart Baseball. Great stuff so far- was fun remembering that twelve months I wondered if Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurillia were studs.
Keith Law: Thank you. Alfonzo was a guy I wanted to be better – seemed like he was capable of so much more and then you looked at some slightly advanced stats and realized he just didn’t produce.

Michael: Went down a rabbit hole of a GOP friend’s FB page and she’s trying to tell people the vaccine is dangerous, posting “articles” that link to supposed deaths after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine. Lots of people agreeing with her. Aside from deleting my FB account, do you have any advice for dealing with these types of people?
Keith Law: I would suggest at least an attempt to reason with her, for her own good and the good of your community, but with the expectation that it’ll go nowhere.

Jason: Does the addition of JBJ make the Brewers a slight favorite in the NL Central? I’m still expecting a tight 3 team race.
Keith Law: It helps them, certainly – good to see someone else trying to improve besides the Cardinals. I’d like to see the Brewers flip Garcia for some pitching.

Alan & Lou – Detroit: Give me some good news on the Tigers as a Detroit sports fan. Any chance they don’t finish in last like the Wings, Pistons, and Lions?
Keith Law: They’re very likely to finish last, but you should get a lot of Mize, Manning, Skubal this year, and that’s worth the price of admission.

Shane Bieber: Is skill or durability a bigger roadblock for Triston McKenzie becoming an ace?
Keith Law: Durability.

Concerned Fan: Keith, Yoan Moncada was visibly in pain last season as he played through complications from his COVID-19 experience. Now, he claims that he feels healthy and strong. But how can we be sure that he is not a victim of long-lasting COVID respiratory issues that will prevent him from being a high-level athlete ever again?
Keith Law: We can’t, can we? I didn’t realize he was struggling to that extent but he can’t be the only one.

Andrew Vaughn: Given that Andrew Vaughn is slated to be the White Sox full-time DH this year, how do you think he’ll adjust to MLB pitching? Love him as a prospect but worried that he’ll be overmatched right away.
Keith Law: My one worry would be that he might be too passive early on, and have to adjust that. I don’t think he’s just up there to walk, but that’s a big leap in ball/strike distinctions (and thus in required recognition) from college and a brief stint in A-ball to the majors with a year off in the middle.

Ben: If you had to pick one: Grierson or Leitch?
Keith Law: I’ll never tell.

Tom: Keith – have you ever read Robert Caro’s books on Robert Moses or LBJ? If so, would you recommend them?
Keith Law: I haven’t, because they’re very, very long.

Guest: Where do the Yankees start their top catching prospects in the minors? Breaux and Siegler HiA, Wells in LowA and Gomez back to GCL?
Keith Law: Seigler low A, Wells high A for me. Breaux has been very bad on defense in the majors.

Matt: Should the Jays just start the season with Austin Martin at 3B?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: I know you dont like player comps. But how unfair are the Durran to Grady Sizemore comps?
Keith Law: Yikes. Wasn’t Sizemore a three-sport athlete in HS?
Keith Law: like, Duran’s a good prospect, but Sizemore was at another level in athleticism. Just couldn’t stay healthy.

Nate: Your thoughts on Cavan Biggio are well known at this point, but offense aside, I can’t be the only one thinking the Jays are crazy for trying to have him play significant innings at 3rd right? Not a scout but I just don’t think he has the arm strength or quickness to play there consistently.
Keith Law: I agree. He was more passable at second.

Jared: So Cleveland is just moving forward with Tito/Antonetti huh…
Keith Law: While I assume people in the organization knew more about Callaway than they’re letting on, we really don’t have good evidence on that yet. I’d like to see a real MLB investigation and then have consequences based on that. Right now we mostly have assumptions and the occasional rumor. I’m sure someone knew. I’d just like to be sure the right people are called to account.

Jim: Hi Keith. More likely to be a true #1 — Ian Anderson or Max Fried?
Keith Law: I lean Fried because he has the better arsenal overall.

Bill: The word is that Gavin Lux has “quieted” his swing and no longer has the throwing yips. Does he seize 2B (or SS if Seager leaves) for the foreseeable future?
Keith Law: Hope so. Was always a fan, still am.

Nate: Would you consider yourself a casual fan of college baseball outside of work? I like it but the lack of pitching depth for the most part can make it hard to watch at times, especially midweek games.
Keith Law: No, because of the tin bats, excessive bunting, and too-frequent late-game pitching changes.

Michael: I get that we all do things for our spouses, #solidarity, but do you “like” football or Pfish?
Keith Law: She reads these chats so I’d better be careful … I would say I really appreciate Phish because they’re such skilled musicians. At the two concerts we attended in 2019, I could just stand there and watch Trey’s fretwork for an entire solo and get lost in it. I wish I could move around the fretboard that easily but I could at least pick out patterns and try to infer where his mind was going. Football is just a fun thing to get angry about and an excuse to chill on the couch, but it’s nowhere near as serious a matter as rugby.

Ben: Akil Baddoo is getting a lot of buzz this spring from Tigers twitter. What should Tigers fans realistically expect for Baddoo? Would you cut Jacoby Jones to keep Baddoo on the squad?
Keith Law: I like Baddoo quite a bit, and hope he’s healthy now and can stick. Never bought JaCoby’s bat, and he’s about to turn 29 with no real track record of consistent production. I think the highest I ever rated him was out of high school, when he was all tools and athleticism, but he didn’t progress at LSU or in multiple stops so far in pro ball.

Mason: What would you do with Varsho this year? Think he’ll get the consistent playing time to get going this year?
Keith Law: Move him around the field but make sure he’s playing close to every day.

Joe Maddon: What do you think of the Angels Chris Rodriquez? Will he make the opening day roster? Do you see him long term as a starter or a reliever?
Keith Law: Absolutely should not make the OD roster. He’s barely pitched in three years and needs to be managed carefully this year, not according to the whims and needs of the major-league club.

ssimo02: Enjoyed your interview with Triston McKenzie. I respect that you won’t use Cleveland’s team’s nickname in your articles. Why did you use it to tag the team in your Tweet promoting the interview?
Keith Law: That’s their twitter handle. I can’t change that.

J. Alfaro: Who are the Top 3 catchers in the MLB draft in your mind, and need I concern myself with them?
Keith Law: Del Castillo, Davis, and Ford. We’ll see if Mack joins them when his season starts. The first three are all going in the first round.

Nate: As a Utah resident it’s cool to see Seth Corry getting some love. When’s the last time a legit prospect came out of Utah in any capacity? Do we have to go all the way back to CJ Cron?
Keith Law: Yep, it’s Cron, and he’s an Arizona kid who went to the University of Utah. There have only been two players drafted and signed out of Utah high schools to reach 10 career WAR: Bruce Hurst and Glenn Hubbard, 1976 and 1975 drafts respectively. Next is John Buck at 5.8 WAR.

Andrew: Thinking about Carlos Correa – are you aware of any evidence that guys who are injured frequently at a young age are more likely to continue to miss a lot of games throughout their careers? Correa has missed about 1/3 of his regular season games since 2017 while in his early 20s. I’d love for the Astros to extend him, but how do you bake this into a valuation of him? Basically, is “injury prone” a real thing?
Keith Law: So, my understanding is that, yes, this is true, the best predictor of whether a guy will get injured is whether he has gotten injured. I can not, however, point you to a study of any sort to demonstrate this.

Guest: Hi Keith. I also have anxiety and started taking metamucil when I read that you take it for digestive issues. How many pills do you take per day?
Keith Law: I take five, the recommended dose, every day before lunch.

Pat D: I don’t know why, but I don’t think I’m as excited as I should be for this upcoming season.  I’m not sure if it’s because I think the Yankees half-assed it in the offseason or because of my own health/work/personal issues or because things still don’t feel “normal.”  Anyone else feel this way?
Keith Law: I feel some of this, certainly … it doesn’t feel quite real to me, and my enthusiasm for going to see actual games is tempered by news like teams opening their gates way too soon or to too many fans. Maybe that will dissipate as soon as I get myself to a game.

Jason: Are your ESPN-era chats gone forever?
Keith Law: I don’t think they are all gone but the first few years were wiped out in the site redesign.

Dan: Cruzan has some great darker rums for blending including a 137 proof to make coquito.
Keith Law: I don’t love their rums, even the 15-year or the blackstrap. A little too medicinal for me.

JT: Evan White was a rookie and it was a weird year, but 40% K rate does not portend great things. Are you still optimistic about the bat?
Keith Law: Him becoming so pull-happy and unable to hit a MLB fastball is a huge concern.

Sal: Have you seen/heard anything about Dom Smith indicating he’ll maintain the numbers from the second half of 19 and 2020? He appears to be one of those guys to root for as a human and player.
Keith Law: That’s the hitter I always thought he’d become, so I wasn’t surprised to see it. I hope they continue to commit to finding him as much playing time as possible.

JR: Why do the Mets feel the need to explore an extension with Lindor? SS free agent class is loaded next year. Yes, he’s a great player, but seems a bit premature. Also, do you find it unique that they are publicly discussing that they are exploring extension talks with Lindor and Conforto? Seems like most of these extensions get announced as a surprise (like Tatis, Jr).
Keith Law: They’re clearly trying to signal to fans that it’s not Wilpon business as usual any more.

Paul: If we get to a point where every dr, nurse, every waiter, bartender, is vaccinated and hospitalizations are low – doesn’t it make sense to open things up?
Keith Law: Gradually, sure. Completely, as Texas and Maryland have done? No. A restaurant full of maskless (or frequently masks-off) people, mostly unvaccinated, is still a bad idea.
Keith Law: To be more specific: It is not supported by the science. Restaurants don’t have the distancing or ventilation required for maskless dining.

Appa Yip Yip: What players are your highest priority evaluations for this year? Guys who intrigue but haven’t been seen much or played in a bit?
Keith Law: That was my column yesterday. Gave 32 names, I think, despite the headline (which I didn’t write).

Bernie Brewer: Arcia vs. Luis Urias is a real post-hype prospect battle. Are either still potential assets for MLW?
Keith Law: I won’t give up on either guy … yet.

Andre: Keith – What have you heard about Robert Puason? It seems as though he went from being hailed as a top prospect ($5 million bonus) to almost an afterthought before playing a game in the US.
Keith Law: I don’t think he was really that top of a prospect, but he did get a huge bonus. Ton of concerns about his bat and body before and after he signed.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to some of the other recent catchers who were picked in the first round in the last few years?  He went to our local HS and was very excited to see your write up on him and that he is that well regarded.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Whichever team gets most comfortable with his unorthodox swing will pull the trigger somewhere in the teens, I think. Power for sure, high contact rates now, and can definitely catch. If everyone loved the swing and thought he’d continue to put the ball in play he’d be a top 10 guy.

JR: As weird as it sounds, I honestly think corporate America is our best bet to increase vaccine rates, especially the airlines, cruise ships, amusement parks, stadiums, etc. Places that accommodate large crowds. If they all institute a “you can’t visit our place/use our services without a vaccine or a recent (less than 24 hours) negative test” it will force anti vaxxers to either comply or prove negative test before being amongst a big group of people.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s bizarre, and inefficient, but some corporations are doing more on massive issues like climate change or LGBTQ+ rights than our own government.

Dixie: Have you ever read “The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have – here’s my review from 2009. Chabon’s a brilliant writer who needs an editor to reign him in.

Tom: Have had debates about madrigal’s potential offensive output. No way he even slugs .420 (nice) or so right??
Keith Law: No evidence that is or ever will be within his skill set.

Max: What percent of this Mickey Moniak resurgence are you buying — 25%?
Keith Law: Zero for now. He’s got 10 AB in early spring training.

Tom: At what point will you vote for the person who will more likely unite america as opposed to the candidate we agree with more?
Keith Law: Show me a candidate who can “unite” America – after 12 years of GOP obstructionism, in particular – and we can talk.

Pat D: I think I know the answer, but will conservatives remember that they started “cancel culture?”  Bill Maher after 9/11, The Dixie Chicks, but even much longer ago The Beatles after the “more popular than Jesus” statement.  Also, can us sane people please agree that “cancel culture” is a bullshit, inaccurate term anyway?
Keith Law: It’s a term that segment of the media loves almost as much as they love talking about trans athletes.

Adam: I know you do not choose what to advertise on your podcast, but have you ever had to refuse to promote somewhat who wanted to buy ad time?  If a “anti-vax” org wanted to buy a spot, for example, could you go to the people at the Athletic (or before that, ESPN) and say that there was no way you would read the provided copy?
Keith Law: Yes. I have declined some ads and asked for changes in other ad copy (e.g., a product that wanted me to call it delicious, when I tried it and did not find it delicious).

JG: Is Whitley now destined to join Appel and Aiken as Astros 1st round pitching prospects to never pitch in the Big Leagues?
Keith Law: It’s Tommy John surgery … he’ll be back. Maybe he’ll never be what we thought, but he’ll be back.

addoeh: Any interesting/amusing stories from how you and your wife met or from your first few dates?
Keith Law: I’d have to check with her before sharing too much, but I think this is fair game: neither of us was all that sure that the other was interested after the first date. I traveled after that and we were texting furiously the whole time, after which point it became clear we could have something special – which we do.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up – I’m sorry, there are still some great questions in the queue. Thank you all for reading. Next week’s chat might be at a different time or even postponed depending on work travel and other things. In the meantime, my breakouts column should run Wednesday, and I have a new review up at Paste of the quick 3-D board game Holi. Thanks again – stay safe and get that vaccine!