Stick to baseball, 4/23/16.

My latest draft blog post covers six top prospects I saw in the last week and a half, including Riley Pint, who hit 100 mph on my gun. ESPN also posted a free lookback at my old reports on Aaron Hicks. I held my regular Klawchat on Thursday, going about a half hour longer than usual.

And now, the links…

  • I’ve always thought the UN was worse than useless, but boy, does this take the cake: Their own Nepalese peacekeepers caused the ongoing Haitian cholera epidemic that has killed upwards of 10,000 people. And they’re covering it up, with help from our own federal government.
  • Thieves are stealing nuts from California farmers and it’s actually a serious problem.
  • The NY Times weighs in on transgender bathroom hysteria with an op ed that emphasizes two aspects of these hateful laws: They don’t make anyone safer, and they carry real economic consequences for states that pass them. Not mentioned is how such laws blatantly pander to the evangelical base of the right wing, and how such voters seem to fall for it.
  • Charles Pierce’s column on the two names we’ll be saying till the election was spot on and very entertaining to read.
  • This Slate piece on the fake Craigslist ad asking for a “feminism tutor” is super weird and creepy. The piece identifies the serial harasser as a Penn State student, but the school’s directory shows zero results in a search of his name.
  • Sarah Palin claimed that she’s as much a “scientist” as Bill Nye is, which is a bizarre sort of ad hominem attack.
  • The University of Georgia paid Ludacris $65K to perform before a spring football game but remember there’s no money to pay the players because amateurism.
  • I found this 2010 Science post called Things I Won’t Work With: Dioxygen Difluoride highly amusing.
  • The Onion reports what other news outlets won’t: Pharmaceutical Industry Reeling As More Moms Making Vaccines At Home.
  • The 1970 Miami High School baseball team was inducted into the school’s Hall of Fame this past week. “If it happened today — 24 innings thrown in one 346-pitch game by a high school junior — the coach likely would be fired or maybe even worse.” I don’t know if that pitcher, Alberto Zamora, was a major prospect before that outing, but he never made it to full-season ball.
  • Don’t believe positive reviews you see online, even if they seem well-written and specific. A Fusion write created a fake business and bought likes and reviews for $5 a pop.
  • The sister of the late Harris Wittels, Parks & Recreation writer and actor as well as creator of the Humblebrag, wrote a searing piece on the end of empathy and the awful shit people say online. Within her piece is a subpoint to which I can certainly relate: People will say awful things to total strangers when behind the comfort of a keyboard and a pseudonym. Someone came here the other day to say he disagreed with my comments on C.J. Nitkowski’s post and that he wouldn’t be a reader any more, and ended with “Fuck you.” He might have said the other stuff to my face. The last bit? I doubt it.
  • Millenials prefer straight cash to stupid office perks, and Bloomberg is on it.
  • Vox has a thoughtful piece on smugness in American liberalism; everything in there is at least somewhat accurate, but couldn’t you make the same points about any such community, especially online? Vaccine deniers, conspiracy theorists, evangelicals, atheists, vegetarians, Trump supporters – they all thrive in environments where they can limit their exposure to people with differing views, creating a feedback loop that further convinces them that they are right and everyone else is wrong. It’s human nature, and I don’t think it’s limited to any part of the political spectrum.
  • Finally, did you know I’m a “liberal firebrand?” I didn’t realize believing in flatter taxation, a balanced budget, and free markets made me a left-wing nut job. Or that believing in equal rights for everyone put me anywhere but with the majority.

Klawchat 4/21/16.

Klaw: Klawchat. Making no compromise with the public taste.

Jim J: Were you able to see Will Benson last week? Thoughts on him and/or teammate Rankin Woley?
Klaw: Yes, I am going to write up the six HS kids I saw in the last week at some point today or tomorrow. Benson is very physically gifted, but the swing needs work and I think both he and Lowe were too high on my last top 50.

Hank: What is your opinion on Vincent velasquez? Future number 2?
Klaw: I’d probably say less than that, given the inconsistency of the breaking ball for his entire career and the lack of any track record of durability. A number 3, an above-average starter who maybe gives you fewer innings than you want, that’s probably more like it.

Ed: If Rio Ruiz continues his strong year at AAA, can he be a starting 3B on a quality team?
Klaw: Sure, but the question is whether his strong two-weeks-does-not-a-year-make is real or SSS.

Todd: After seeing Pint do you think he will be available to the Padres at 8? Or is he for sure a top 5 pick?
Klaw: I think better than 50/50 he gets to 8. People who assume his velocity makes him a top 5 pick are a bit out of date – velocity alone doesn’t lock you into the top 5.

Jeff: Rakim at Union Transfer in Philly, July 14th. Performing the entire Paid in Full album. That is all.
Klaw: Oh I’ve had my ticket since the presale. You can’t get stuck with the steps.

Shawn: Saw that Yusniel Diaz has three straight games with homers and has a trio of triples on the young season. Is this type of power unexpected from him? Reports I’ve read had him as more of a speed/ contact guy. Obviously small sample is in play but just wanted your thoughts.
Klaw: Electric wrists. I had heard high-average medium-power over the winter, but I could see him ending up with surprising power in the McCutchen mold because his wrists are so quick.

Ivan: Thank you for doing the chats here. I missed them for a while after they stopped on ESPN. Speaking of ESPN, and I understand if you don’t feel comfortable speaking about this, but what is your take on the recent firing of Curt Shilling? I BTW agree with their decision. Free speech doesn’t mean that you are free from the consequences of what you say.
Klaw: I support the company’s decision completely, and that’s really all I can or should say about it.

Maribel: Is your take on Schilling hypocritical? You seem to cut him a little slack since you know he’s a good guy, but vilify someone like Andrew Shaw who said something totally wrong, but you come across as if he shouldn’t be forgiven.
Klaw: A number of people said this yesterday. It is inaccurate, and it is not very smart.

Eric: Have you heard a reason for why the Jays seem to have started a lot of their guys a level lower that expected (Harris, SRF in LowA, Greene in high-A, etc).
Klaw: Yes, but nothing that satisfied me. I think it sends a brutal message to players. The weather up here is fine, if that was an excuse for leaving Greene in Florida. Harris might be less advanced than expected on draft day, but the FSL is fairly pitcher-friendly, and if he’s not ready to pitch there as a sandwich pick out of college, then you probably picked the wrong guy.

Brian: Early season thoughts on Aaron Sanchez? Toronto announcers highlight “improved delivery”. This has long been one of your stated concerns for Aaron. Have you seen a change (i.e. lengthened stride)? Thanks.
Klaw: Can’t tell off TV angles. I’ve looked, but the CF camera angle is brutal for this.

Jameson Taillon: Do I still have a future in MLB?
Klaw: Yes, absolutely.

Josh: Keith, I know that it is early in the season and he is old for his level, but when you consider the final half of last season and his start to this season, has Andrew Knapp answered any of the questions you have about his ability to consistently hit major league pitching?
Klaw: Not really. It’s not like he’s faced major-league pitching.

Cooker: Have you ever been to Mario Batalys eataly stores? Chicago one is yyyyyuuuuugggggeeeee!
Klaw: The NYC one is amazing. I could easily have gotten lost in there fora few hours.

Francisco: Better hitter Zach Collins or Senzel ?
Klaw: Senzel. Does it easier, better approach. Collins has some swing issues, not huge ones, but Senzel doesn’t really have any.

Craig: Just wanted to say thank you for demonstrating a basic principle of civility: you can disagree with a co-worker’s actions/beliefs, agree with your employer’s decision to terminate the co-worker’s contract and still value the friendship that you had with the co-worker. This used to be the norm. Reading your Twitter replies yesterday was pretty depressing.
Klaw: Thank you for saying so and understanding fully what I said.

James: Coming into today, Max Kepler has three ABs in his last seven games. He’s even fallen behind Oswaldo Arcia (ugh) for fourth outfielder duties. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Twins to let Kepler get his PAs in Rochester and bring up someone like Mastroianni as the OF5 instead?
Klaw: Yes, it would have. I don’t really know what’s going on.

Christopher: When watching a pitching prospect face a hitting prospect, how do you handle trying to scout both of them during the same at bat?
Klaw: Focus more on the hitter. I can watch the pitcher face the other eight guys in the lineup, and for a hitter it’s more important to focus on what might be the only good pitching he faces all spring.

Jed: Why does Terry Collins only pinch hit for Conforto against lefties? Curtis Granderson has a career OBP south of .300 against lefties, plus he does developing. Why not sit him occasionally instead of Conforto?
Klaw: Because Terry Collins seems to hate relying on young players. It’s stupid. His antics this year make me wonder if we all overrated him last year because the team played so well down the stretch.

Bill: Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you’ve stated that you do not think draft picks should be connected to free agent signings. Do you think teams losing free agents should be compensated in another way?
Klaw: You could simply award such teams draft picks without penalizing the signing clubs.

Keith: Do you know what other international players the Braves are targeting for this July besides Maitan, Yunior Severino and Abrahan Gutierrez? Thanks
Klaw: No idea, and other than Cuban players who might have quicker impact in the minors I don’t follow the July 2nd market. If you ever took an econ course and learned how imperfect information can screw up a marketplace, well, Exhibit A.

Kevin: Certainly there are some serious questions about what “correct” or even “good” mechanics are for pitchers but is there any flaw you see in amateur guys that cause you to completely lose interest or doubt their ability to develop or stay healthy?
Klaw: Not a big fan of players with head violence in their deliveries, or deliveries that are very arm-heavy (using too little of their legs for power). I try not to flat-out kill guys like that – for example, I had Carson Fulmer and Chris Sale ranked in the top ~50 in their draft years, too low for Sale of course but not a “no interest” ranking at all – just to rank them lower.

LarryA: You’ve posted a few very convincing anti-anti-fat articles recently, but Ive also read some just as convincing articles from the other side. How are we non-scientists supposed to know what to eat anymore?
Klaw: Eat lots of plants. And then eat whatever else makes you happy.

Al: Would a team have to intentionally (before the season even) design the roster to have a bullpen throw ~650 innings? I ask because I dont think any Orioles starter should appear in the 6th inning…but couldnt figure a way to get 650 IPs out of their RPs. TY! (you’re the best)
Klaw: Yes, I think that’s about right – and I think the Cubs did so without actually planning to get 600+ innings from their pen. Two long men would do it.

Bruce: What caused you to rank Archie Bradley so highly a few years ago, and do you think he ever reaches those projected levels?
Klaw: Used to have a plus fastball and 70 breaking ball with size and a good delivery. Stuff has backed up a little post-shoulder issues, changeup never really developed, command hasn’t been even average. I would put him in the bullpen now, and revisit starting later after he’s had success in the shorter role.

Andres A.: Klaw. Be a GUY and rank these 3 albums: “AM” by Arctic Monkeys, “An Awesome Wave” by Alt-J and “The Bones of What You Believe” by Chvrches.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Fonz: Have you heard any reports on RHP from Pitt TJ Zeuch?
Klaw: Yes, sounds like third round likely, good chance for second. Bad year for college pitching so some guys will go a round higher than their stuff and/or results merit. Missing four starts early this season hasn’t helped.

Sam: I see you were out to see Riley Pint this week. Did you notice anyone representing the Phillies there ?
Klaw: I think every team was there. It was a chance to get Pint and Joey Wentz in one day, so of course just about every team was present. The Phillies had at least three guys there, but all left Pint’s start after an inning to go to Wentz. I have said before I don’t believe they’re taking a HS arm at 1 and I absolutely don’t believe it would be Pint if they did.

John: Kyle Hendricks – I can’t get a grip on what he is – AAAA type guy or useful part of MLB rotation. Your thoughts….
Klaw: Useful part of MLB rotation.

Fonz: HI Keith, have you read anything recently that will make the next version of your top 100/101, etc.?
Klaw: Infinite Jest and All the Light We Cannot See.

A: Hey klaw, can you clear up draft-eligible sophomores? I see MLB’s official rules say “or are at least 21 years old”, but when do they have to be 21 by? I thought draft day but then I noticed drafted sophomore Benintendi turned 21 a month afterwards.
Klaw: 45 days after the end of the draft. Stupid rule – just make them eligible every year.

Tyler: Is there any historical precedent of a pitcher being able to sustain long-term success/health throwing a slider at the velocity and rate (around 25%) that Syndergaard is? Maybe he’s a freak and he will keep this up but do you see him being able to sustain that pitch at that velocity that long?
Klaw: No, but there isn’t much historical precedent for the velocity around the game in general, is there?

Satya: Blake Rutherford’s old for a HS senior, but where would he rank in this draft based on his tools a year ago?
Klaw: Still think he’d be top 10. The issue with the age of a HS position player is that he’s older than his competition, which I think makes gauging the hit tool in particular difficult – can he really hit, or is he just beating up younger kids? In Rutherford’s case, the hit tool is definitely there. You’d just have to believe he’ll have enough pitch recognition to start 2017 in low-A.

Anthony: So Prince is dead. Thoughts? I think Prince is one hell of a musician, very interesting for his stance on technology, and all around a cool dude.
Klaw: I don’t know if there’s been a more talented musician in pop music in my lifetime – musicianship, versatility, lyrical cleverness, sense of melody. I don’t think much of his work after the first name change (post-Diamonds and Pearls), but his 14-15 year peak is the GOAT for me.

JD: If you worked for Colorado, what skill set would you look for or develop in pitchers? How do you like Hoffman’s chances of success at Coors?
Klaw: The one thing I wouldn’t do is what they seem to be doing now – collecting a lot of guys who throw hard but straight without deception. Gray wasn’t like that in college but he is now. Hoffman is like that. I don’t think it works there, not that there’s an easy formula. Perhaps it’ll turn out that guys with especially high spin rates fare better in Denver, to throw one thing out there.

Lucas Magalhaes: I know you are not surprised at all, but what you call us about Kevin Newman start?
Klaw: Doing what I thought he’d do – making a ton of good contact. Surprised he hasn’t tried to steal more bases, although it’s just 13 games.

Jack: Is Jake Bauers someone whose swing or approach is going to keep him from getting the power needed to be an above average corner player on a good team?
Klaw: Yes. Don’t foresee power, defense probably only works at first base.

Jack: Can Buxton work out his K issues in the majors or will he need to head back down?
Klaw: I’d rather see him play every day in the majors and work his way through it. Would also like to see them leave him alone at the plate – let him work this out, don’t start trying to change anything about his swing or approach, which I’ve heard secondhand has been going on in the clubhouse.

Rahim: In a recent chat, you mentioned that the A’s were interested in Senzel? Is this more of a true reflection of his standing in this class or more indicative of Oakland’s preference for “safer” high ceiling players?
Klaw: I’ve heard they are very much on him and to some extent on Zach Collins.

Dan: The insane 2018 FA class will (as of now) include Harper, Machado, Donaldson, McCutchen, Fernandez, Harvey and potentially Price and Heyward, among many others. With a couple dozen high-end free agents available and a finite amount of cash that teams will spend, would it make sense for some of those players so sign extensions in the next year to avoid sitting in a buyer’s market? Or should they take their chances on a big payday in the 2018 winter?
Klaw: Someone in that group will sign an extension, perhaps after a trade. I believe Harper, Fernandez, and Harvey are all Boras clients, who typically don’t sign extensions. Certainly Fernandez and Harvey should consider it as pitchers who’ve already had one TJ apiece. (Not one together, that would be weird.)

Chaz: What’s your favorite Prince song? He was the G.O.A.T. as far as mainstream music superstars as far as I’m concerned.
Klaw: I actually ranked my favorite Prince songs in a 2009 dish post.

Nick: What are your thoughts on Kaprielian’s velocity spike. Seems like he is holding it deeper into games. *If* it holds, what is his ceiling?
Klaw: Good number two starter. I already was a big believer in the feel for pitching and command.

Ty: Did Pint or Wentz do anything to cause you to consider moving them up/down in your rankings?
Klaw: I’ll slide Pint down a few notches next time around, nothing huge, but 96-100 is not sufficient by itself to put him over guys with more developed repertoires like Wentz or Garrett.

Lorne: What are your thoughts on who the Braves grab at #3 this year in the draft?
Klaw: I’d still bet on Corey Ray or Senzel if one is there.

Jeff Mac: What’s this early season success for Tyler White mean?
Klaw: It means he can hit, just as we thought he could this offseason.

Matt: After reading today of a DE HS student being assaulted and killed, it goes to show how horrible the violence in Wilmington has become (inside and outside of schools). Would you ever send your child to public school in the area or opt for private education?
Klaw: My daughter’s in a charter school. I would prefer not to go the private education route. That murder was in a downtown HS, by the way, not our district. Downtown Wilmington has some very rough areas. The economic gap between city residents and suburban residents a few miles away is enormous.

Aaron: Any idea why the Brewers recalled Alex Presley and not Michael Reed?
Klaw: Probably to give Reed more reps in CF before he comes up.

Jack: Is Harper approaching the Bonds territory of “Just walk the damn guy in every high leverage situation?”
Klaw: It was a bad strategy against Bonds and I think it’s a bad one now too.

Sam: Who was the better prospect: Orlando Arcia or Alcides Escobar? And why? Seem to be pretty similar players.
Klaw: Not remotely similar. Arcia can hit, has plate discipline, has a little power, and is a great makeup guy with leadership. Escobar is none of that.

Scott: Is Jason Groome your leading candidate to go #1 to the Phillies? What do you see as his upside if so?
Klaw: No, I think the Phillies want a college player – Ray, Senzel, Puk now that he’s healthy, Lewis as a longshot. If they go HS bat, Moniak would be the most likely pick.

Marty in Seneca: What was your evaluation of Seth Beer coming out of high school last year?
Klaw: He didn’t come out of high school last year. He left in December to matriculate early so that as a college junior he’ll be the same age as his classmates. Smart move.

Michael: Looks like Blair could be starting Sunday for the Braves……he was ready to start the year in this rotation. You see him being a peak Brandon Webb type??
Klaw: I think he has some Brandon Webb to him. Groundballs and strikeouts without a lot of walks. We like that.

JR: Have you seen Chvrches live? If so, how was it? I’m seeing them tonight for first time and super excited.
Klaw: Yes, in 2013, outstanding live show. They didn’t play “I Would Die 4 U” that night, but I sincerely hope they do so for you tonight.

Dave: How was Kenosha yesterday? I can wait for the write up on Lux but how were the food choices?
Klaw: I ate in Chicago, drove to Kenosha, drove back to Chicago, ate again, flew home.

Dave: How impressed are you with Groome? Do you see the Kershaw comparisons ?
Klaw: “How impressed are you…” Well, Dave, I’m totally unimpressed! I never know what to do with those questions, even when I’m asked live on air. I can tell you what I think, but how do I tell you how impressed I was? Also, I like Groome, best player in the draft when it comes to what’s on the field, but he is not Kershaw.

Brad: Chances Anderson or Garrett move into the top 5 for the draft?
Klaw: My bet is that I’ll have 6-7 prep arms in my top 15, but only 3 will be drafted in the top 10 because teams will back off and choose the perceived safety of other players.

Andrew: Lunhow, in a quest to squander the future in order to bolster a just-OK team in 2015, got rid of Santana and (worse) Brett Phillips (and just gave Deshields away). Who plays in the OF in Houston other than Springer after this year, which is on its way to being disappointing? I don’t see any solutions in the minors…
Klaw: OK, that’s a bit rough. Phillips was in the Gomez/Fiers deal. DeShields had stopped playing hard for Houston, so while they should have protected him, I can understand why they gave up. Santana is probably just an extra outfielder in the long run despite the hot start.

Lucky Chang: Your take on the Adrian Beltre extension and where Texas goes from here? 2/36 seems very reasonable, but they pretty much have to move Prince or Choo this offseason (while eating some of the money), right?
Klaw: I think they have to move or bench one or both of those guys to make room for better players. Nomar has already shown a good enough approach that they should consider letting him play the rest of the year in the majors even with the likely ups and downs.

Michael: Obviously what Andrew Shaw said is wrong, but isn’t it possible that some people who use those types of words are simply uneducated, ignorant, or misinformed? That doesn’t necessarily make them bigoted.
Klaw: I find it very, very hard to believe that any adult in 2016 could use that word without being aware of its nature. Analogies of slurs are imperfect, but it’s like saying someone could use the n-word like that without being bigoted.

Joel: Have you met Amanda Hopkins, the first female scout? I think she’s with the Mariners.
Klaw: Not yet, because she’s covering the four corners area which happens to be awful this year for the draft.

Lee: How quickly do Moncada and Benintendi move through the Boston system? They are both dominating in Salem and probably need a bigger challenge.
Klaw: Again, it’s two weeks. Both are great prospects but there’s no reason to rush them up rather than letting them see some teams and pitchers twice to see if they struggle the second time around or continue raking. Mid- to late May would be fine.

Mike: Any sense as to whether Tyler White can handle 3B in MLB if Reed hits his way into a promotion?
Klaw: I think no chance.

forever it: Anderson Espinoza was quoted as saying he hopes to be in the big leagues by next year. Realistic?
Klaw: Love the ambition but that would shock me. I also can picture Dombrowski trading him at the break because he’s only 18 and figuring he’s a few years away.

Anonymous: What’s going on with Brady Aiken? Is he back to playing? Seems like been more than enough time for TJ surgery
Klaw: Throwing bullpens. Only been 13 months since TJ. That’s on the quick side for a return to pitching in games.

Tim: What would you project as Brendan Rodgers MLB debut year?
Klaw: September 2018.

Michael: You mention getting better angles when watching prospects. Just curious. I almost never see pro scouts moving around or sitting down the first base or third base side. They stick behind home plate.
Klaw: This is true. I tend to move around more. It helps that I’ve never liked sitting still anyway.

Joe: What did you think of Spacca? I live a few blocks over and it’s one of my favorites.
Klaw: Very good. Got the bufalina pizza and the insalata mista. All very simple and very well done. Crust was maybe a little doughier than I’m used to, but not in a bad way.

Steve. Texas: 2 Economics questions. What are your feelings on protectionism and the female/male wage gap?
Klaw: Hate protectionism. Free trade does create some “losers” but the net benefit to trading partners is positive. The gender pay gap is much smaller than people claim it is – more on the order of 5% – but does seem to be real.

Kevin: Is Austin Allen a legitimate prospect or is he just old for the level? I know it’s a small sample but he’s been tearing it up.
Klaw: Way old for the level. Fringe prospect for me.

Andy: I live in Ben Rortvedt’s home town. 10-15 scouts a game are there. Is that normal? That seems an awful lot of people traveling to an area where there are not many other prospects around.
Klaw: It’s because he’s good. That’s about normal. Lux and Johnson are in the same general area anyway.

smdc: Always enjoy your work, and appreciate the blend of baseball talk and literary crit. We hear a lot about ‘tools’ in baseball, and I’m curious if you’ve ever thought about authors in the same way? If yes what would be the 5 tools of writing, and who might be a true 5 tool author?
Klaw: I judge books on three main criteria – plot, prose, and personas (characters, but I wanted the alliteration). Fitzgerald is three 8s for me.

Adam: Other than Hansen and Funkhouser, who else has damaged their draft stock horribly?
Klaw: Buddy Reed. Avery Tuck. Austin Bergner.

Edwin: Do you enjoy utilizing your platform as a public persona to make yourself sound superior to others? Seems like it.
Klaw: I don’t think I’m superior to anyone. I use my platform to express opinions and, I hope, draw some attention to causes that matter to me. That’s hardly making myself “superior” to anybody; my fundamental belief is that we are all equal.

Matt: If the phillies decided to go below-slot in order to go overslot in the 2nd round, any idea who they might be able to get in the 2nd a la daz cameron last year?
Klaw: Not yet but we should know some names in a couple of weeks. Daz was a perfect storm – famous, well-off, good but not great, Boras client.

Rian: has rio ruiz done anything in the early going to make you optimistic? or even improve your outlook on him
Klaw: I’m hopeful, but I can’t bank on any player’s hot or cold start after just 14 games.

Randy: Think Mark Appel still has the potential to crack the phils rotation?
Klaw: I’ve never really doubted him as a starter.

Brad: What’s the hardest position to scout?
Klaw: Catcher. Hard to get a good read on his defensive abilities while watching the game.

Jim: Why is it worse to say a bad word about a person than it is to kill an animal and eat it for your enjoyment?
Klaw: Because bad words taste like shit.

Anonymous: Vaccines are good. But why should we eliminate a person’s right to choose to be injected with a substance? And the “good for the population argument” can be taken to other extremes I know you would not be in favor of.
Klaw: It’s actually not that person’s right, but the child’s right. You can do really stupid stuff to yourself, but not to your kid.

Jon: Keith – You’ve spoken openly about your anxiety here, and in other forums before so I had a question to you about that. Did you find out you suffered from anxiety before your daughter was born, and if so, how did/do you cope with thought that she may too one day? My wife is expecting our first baby this summer, and although I don’t suffer from depression and anxiety, I have a family history of it. One of the many thoughts i’ve had since we found out she was pregnant was what if our daughter is afflicted with it too? Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
Klaw: I’ve always had it but was diagnosed with it when my daughter was six and began treatment then. I wouldn’t worry about your daughter now – if she’s going to get it, it will be several years down the road, and for now you should focus on loving her and caring for her and helping her grow up emotionally healthy.

Rob: My daughter just turned 11 and loves to read. I enjoy reading to her at night before bed. Could you recommend a book or two? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Try Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series, although he ended book 3 with a cliffhanger and keeps delaying book 4, the slacker.

Danny: Aaron Sanchez, still no?
Klaw: It’s not “no,” it’s “we don’t know.”

Joe: Does Groome being suspended hurt his stock ?
Klaw: No, not at all. It’s just stupid. Parochial people are parochial, film at 11.

Ryan: Why does MLB require a four year college player to stay in school three years? What would MLB lose by allowing players to be drafted whenever they’re ready?
Klaw: My understanding is that the rule was enacted to help college baseball. I say screw college baseball. It’s not like they’ve stopped overusing pitchers to help MLB, so why should MLB go out of its way to help them?

Aubrey: Do you still believe CJ Nitkowski was shaming based on gender? If you’re less convinced, do you still believe calling him out publicly was fair? I interacted with you on twitter yesterday, and I disagree that it was gender based, and was intended as an age joke. But I did appreciate the opportunity to re-think my potential biases there (Which forced you to “block me” for being civil on twitter, haha)
Klaw: I will unblock anyone who asks. I blocked and muted a lot of people yesterday because of the volume of invective I was getting. It was particularly nasty after my tweet about ESPN’s decision, which was somewhat shocking to me, but then again Twitter is a cesspool so I shouldn’t be shocked. So, if I did block you just put your username in the comments below.

Doug: Do you still think Swihart is Boston’s catcher of the future?
Klaw: I do, or at least I think he’s someone’s catcher of the future. Probably 20 teams just praying Dombo calls them for a trade.

Dan: Hey Keith, I’m not far from you, in the Philadelphia suburbs. Have you found a trusted local place to buy legit San Marzano tomatoes? The online sources I’ve found don’t seem very reputable and I’m hesitant to buy from places I can’t verify given the high rate of counterfeiting.
Klaw: Whole Foods carries them.

Marshall: Alex Meyer is back to working as SP the Twins AAA affiliate (the way way way too early returns are good) is this the type of move you would have made or would you have advised to move him to RP to try to work on is c/c issues?
Klaw: The advantage of having him start is that he will have to face more LHB and face them more times, so he will have to work on the third pitch that has long eluded him. When I checked last night I think LHB are 2/18 with 8 K so far, which is at least the right direction.

Alex: In the name of irony and riffery, can you please share your preferred 4/20 stoner rock playlist. Let’s assume Sweat Leaf is a given.
Klaw: Just play Sleep’s Dopesmoker.

Kenny: Have you seen in person or heard from others about Jared Horn, a RHP from Napa? Seems to have a solid build, a low 90s FB, and some polish.
Klaw: Yes, not polished, better FB than that, very good athlete, football guy, should go in the 30-50 range, still trending upwards.

Toney: Thoughts on Cardinals “fans” yelling the N word at Heyward? Should MLB teams ban fans like Euro soccer clubs do?
Klaw: You’re in that stadium under certain terms and conditions; you have no right to be there. The stadium authority can ban anyone at any time for basically any reason. Yelling horrendous slurs at players – and in the hearing of fans who may also be similarly targeted by those slurs – is a good reason.

Sameer A.: This may be a silly question, but what is the discernible difference (if any) when scouts/analysts refer to a pitcher’s command versus his control. Are those two terms generally synonymous or are they describing different things?
Klaw: They are different things. Control is throwing strikes. Command is the more nebulous term covering throwing pitches where and how you want them. You throw that slider, but do you command it?

Hank: Do you think Newman gets promoted to AA when Cole Tucker returns? Newman is hitting and Tucker is working out in Extended Spring Training, way ahead of schedule.
Klaw: Not a bad idea, depends on when Tucker returns, no?

Michael: I work with a lot of kids who use bad words like what Shaw used. They don’t know what it means–they just say it to be mean. I think that applies to some adults too. They hear it and use it. But that doesn’t necessarily make them bigots.
Klaw: Shaw is not a child. You’re incredibly naive if you think an adult doesn’t know exactly what that word means and that it is not a word to use lightly or in public (or, in my opinion, ever).

Corbett: I went through a number of years dealing with severe anxiety. I’m mostly over it but found that many people around me didn’t understand or even care. Part of my recovery involved changing some of the people around me. Did you go through this also?
Klaw: No, but I was fortunate to have several people close to me, including my wife and Molly Knight, who had dealt with anxiety themselves.

Cccccccccchris: You think the phillies do not want to wait for a HS pitcher to develop or is it something else?
Klaw: I think the relative risk of a HS arm is steering them toward something else.

JR: Right now, who would you say is the 3rd best player in MLB behind Trout and Harper?
Klaw: Manny Machado.

Brian: Senzel to Atlanta at 3? I would lose my mind. A bad athlete who hits for average?
Klaw: Is he a bad athlete? Or just not a great athlete? Granted, I wouldn’t take him at 3 either.

Bishop: Saw a mock today where Brax Garrett was #1. Feasible?
Klaw: No, I don’t believe so. Again, I don’t think they want a prep arm at 1. He’s really good. He’s not 1-1 good, and he’s not “we’ll make an exception” good. But he’s really good, in case that wasn’t clear.

Chris (Chicago): 2 years ago I asked you about Brad Ausmus and his too conventional, conservative, and misguided decisions. After all, he’s a very smart guy. You said to give him time, because he was new to managing. Is it time?
Klaw: OH IT IS TIME.

Alex: I know you aren’t his biggest fan, but any connection with Atlanta and Kyle Lewis? He seems to fit their profile as a good athlete, Georgia kid, and he’s got something basically no one in the organization does — power.
Klaw: I know they’d love a college bat. He swings and misses a lot. Don’t see any benefit to him being a local kid.

Rob: Getting back to drafting the best player available. Damon Oppenheimer leans towards SoCal players. Does that mean he’s not drafting the best player available, or does that he believes playing in SoCal trumps other aspects?
Klaw: SoCal produces some of the best HS talent year-in and year-out. It is not the most productive area if you look at percentage of players drafted, but it is very productive at the bulk level.

Marco: Our presidential candidates all preach on how they will close the income gap. Is there even a logical way to do that?
Klaw: No, but it’s a great talking point, especially if you’re a Democrat and/or a populist.

Corbett: You seem to scout a lot on the east coast which makes sense due to the proximity of your home. Do you think that would bias your opinion towards those you’ve seen?
Klaw: No, I scout all over the country.

Andrew: I read somewhere that Brendan Rodgers may have a poor work ethic. Any truth to this?
Klaw: No. That seems like some bad rumormongering.

Devin Marconi: Your comment about the incomes of urban and suburban families of Wilmington being so different intrigued me. With all of the talk of income equality nationally, can we safely say that those who are at the bottom end are simply people who are too slow to adjust to economic opportunities? The biases that once permeated our society are largely perceived now and used as excuses for those who simply would rather not devote the time or effort to being a positive participant in our economy. Devising more subsidies for them completely flies in the face of tactics that would possibly narrow the income gap in a more permanent way.
Klaw: I think the education gap is the real cause. Our worst schools are in our poorest areas. Also in Mississippi.

Sam: How far along is Cal Quantrill in his recovery from TJ ?
Klaw: Sounds like he’ll appear in games within the next two weeks, after which Marquess will probably send him out there for a full nine innings and 149 pitches.

John: I have trouble wrapping my arms around the male/female wage gap issue. If a significant portion of the female population voluntarily leaves the work force for a number of years, how do you control for that? I’m not arguing “it’s their fault,” just trying to understand the statistical approach.
Klaw: The 5% number is after that adjustment. The numbers you hear Hillary and Bernie quote don’t reflect that fact.

Ready Gronzalez: Reasonable expectation for John Gant? Trade worth it for the Mets?
Klaw: Reliever, not a guy to lose a ton of sleep over for the Mets but a big leaguer.

John: I have a friend who was allergic to the MMR vaccine, causing her to lose her hearing. People need to get vaccinated to protect folks like my friend who are the rare exception that can’t be vaccinated.
Klaw: Yes, or to protect the five-year-old who lives near us and has an extremely rare, incurable autoimmune disorder that has prevented her from getting vaccinated for now because doctors don’t want to risk anything, even something as safe as a vaccine, triggering an immune response that could have serious consequences for her. You owe it to your children to get them vaccinated and you owe it to everyone else’s children too.

Hank: Why should ballparks be able to ban chewing tobacco while they sell people lite beer?
Klaw: I don’t know, it’s nanny-state nonsense.

Cruz Tomas: Let me add an addendum to your comment of us all being equal….we are all created equal, however, some are able to use their natural gifts more efficiently than others. Otherwise, we would have a society with equal outcomes, which is a liberal goal that can never be attained.
Klaw: I’d call that a socialist goal. It’s not a classical liberal goal at all. Liberalism means giving all of us the freedom and opportunities to use those gifts, not to predetermine outcomes or choose winners and losers.

Eddy Gongalblels: Do you think the Braves have any interest in Toronto’s Max Pentecost as a C prospect? What would they need to give up for him?
Klaw: He hasn’t played in nearly two years and there’s no reason to think he can catch right now.

John: So you don’t have a right to do stupid things to your kid… like abort it?
Klaw: You cannot abort your kid. You can abort a fetus, per a certain Supreme Court ruling from 1973.

James: Could a high school prospect give up his US citizenship, become a citizen of a central american country and be eligible to sign a contract without going through the draft? Just wondering.
Klaw: Sort of. It’s a little bit more complicated than you say to just give up citizenship, and if he’s not elite the current bonus caps might make it a negative ROI proposition anyway.

Jake: With anxiety, what helps you stay above the haters and trolls? Twitter has caused anxiety stacks in me multiple times.
Klaw: Blocking and muting. Every once in a while someone accuses me of being “thin-skinned” for the way I use those features. Go spend a few days having strangers swear at and insult you on Twitter and see how it goes.

Tom: Just to clarify an earlier question – the Jason Heyward story was never substantiated. The story was based on reported audio and then ESPN asked for it and they stated there was no audio. The story has never been taken down but the basis of the story does not exist. Heyward and other players for the Cubs said they never heard that horrendous word.
Klaw: Thanks. For the answer above, though, I believe a stadium can ban a fan for saying that word or the word Shaw used, or pretty much any reason they’d like.

Alex: I’m not saying there’s a benefit to Lewis being local to Atlanta. My point is that has meant something to the franchise in the past, whether it’s smart or not. And I agree that it’s not.
Klaw: OK, I understand. They do scout Georgia heavily, and the state is ridiculously loaded this year.

Charles: Don’t forget us in California. We spend more per student than any state in the national and consistently rank at or near the bottom in accomplishment.
Klaw: What if you adjust that for the portion of your state’s population that was born abroad or speaks something other than English at home? It’s much easier when your student base is all American-born and English-speaking.

Brett: When does the vaccine chat end and the baseball chat begin?
Klaw: When did anyone promise you a baseball chat?

Dave: Re: Machado as 3rd best player … Would you listen to an argument (untapped remaining upside, positionality, projected longevity) for him as #2 or even #1 for his entire career? And is Correa #4?
Klaw: Arenado would probably slip in over Correa. Machado’s argument over Trout/Harper is probably based on defense, and I don’t have quite that level of confidence in defensive metrics.

Pat: Best option for getting to the draft early is the Harper route, right? GED early, then a year at a JUCO.
Klaw: Yes. I have zero issues with this, but they are taking some risk.

Charles: Your twitter feed yesterday was depressing and shows a shocking lack of public knowledge about what free speech protections the First Amendment actually provides. Could you do a public service and explain it here?
Klaw: Why would I, when xkcd did it so well.

Cccccccccchris: Can someone tell Franco he doesn’t have to hit home runs every at bat?
Klaw: He’ll get there eventually. I think.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week’s overlong chat as I have to pick up my daughter at the bus stop. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. We’ll do this again next week.

Lingo.

I saw a woman reading Gaston Dorren’s Lingo: Around Europe in Sixty Languages at the Philly airport in early March and, since she said it was worth reading, grabbed the audio version for my spring training drives around Florida (which has some seriously boring highways). I haven’t had time to devote to language-learning in years – something to do with having a kid – but my lifelong obsession with foreign languages hasn’t abated; I find everything about them fascinating, even the ‘boring’ stuff like grammar and syntax. Lingo could have been written just for me, as it skips a lot of the linguistics stuff and instead flits around sixty of Europe’s languages, with goofy anecdotes and brief histories on each to keep the book moving.

There is no central narrative at work in Lingo; this is a dilettante’s work and a book for the peripatetic mind. You don’t have to speak any of the languages Dorren covers to appreciate some of the stories of how languages morphed, or hidden similarities between languages, or the ways languages have defined peoples and borders in Europe. Dorren starts off with Lithuanian, a language that bears many clues to what the forerunner of most European languages, clumsily called Proto-Indo-European, may have looked like, before an immediate tangent on the main oddballs of Europe, the Finno-Ugric languages (Magyar/Hungarian, Finnish, and Estonian), which bear no resemblance at all to their geographic neighbors. Portuguese owes much of its existence to Galician. Dorren describes the “linguistic orphanage” of the Balkans, where Serbian and Croatian are kind of the same language written in different alphabets while the people who speak Macedonian and live in Macedonia have to call their country something else because the Greeks might get mad. (Speaking of which, shouldn’t one of the conditions of the bailout of Greece been that they leave the Macedonians the hell alone?)

Tiny languages like Luxembourgish, Sorbian (from the NBC Saturday morning cartoon show The Sorbs), Sami, and Gagauz get their own chapters, illuminating the battles languages with small populations fight to survive. Some don’t make it; Dalmatian’s brief life and quick death gets a chapter, but the rebirths of Cornish and Manx, two Celtic languages that are two of the only success stories in that department. (The fact that both are spoken in the United Kingdom, a highly developed country, is probably not a coincidence.) Basque, the language isolate spoken in Spain, gets its own chapter, although I think Dorren gave it short shrift; its linguistic origins are unknown despite lengthy efforts to try to connect it to various language families, and its survival despite the lack of a state and its enclave status within Spain’s panoply of dialects make it one of the language world’s most fascinating stories.

Dorren had to face a huge challenge finding something interesting to say on all of these languages, but succeeds more than he fails by finding surprising angles. Turkish, the primary member of the Turkic language family, gets a chapter devoted to its alphabet; the official shift to the Roman alphabet in the 1920s carried enormous political and religious significance. He accurately dubs Esperanto “the no-hoper,” and the chapter on Albanian becomes a story of a few lonesome Albanologists. Hungarian’s chapter is presented as a conversation between the language and its therapist, shortly after the chapter on the variety of European sign languages; I profess my ignorance at just how many sign languages there are worldwide. And he ends with English, which he calls “the global headache,” the universal language that Esperanto (and Volapük and other pretenders) will never unseat, a language with maddening internal inconsistencies in grammar, spelling, and pronunciation that make our complaints about conjugating irregular Spanish verbs seem trivial in comparison.

The lack of any common thread through all the chapters makes Lingo a bit choppy to read, with no story beyond any one language, almost like reading a sort of half-serious reference work rather than the kind of narrative non-fiction I tend to favor. But Lingo also made me nostalgic for when I did have the time to learn bits of other languages, whether in school or on my own, and wonder when I might get another chance to do something like that – maybe spending a few weeks abroad at some point in my life so I can learn via immersion. The sheer diversity of languages in Europe and the aesthetic and literary beauty of many of those tongues comes through in Dorren’s book, even with all of his flitting from one to the next.

Next up: Angela Carter’s highly acclaimed novel Nights at the Circus, which won the Best of the James Tait Black honor in 2012 as the best of the 93 previous winners of the annual award, and was also on David Bowie’s personal top 100 books list.

The Forever War.

Joe Haldeman’s The Forever War, winner of the Nebula Award for best novel in 1975 and Hugo and Locus Awards in 1976, has the biggest disconnect between its value as a metaphorical take on a real-world event and its value as a straight work of fiction. While Haldeman manages to create a unique way of looking at the then-ongoing conflict in Vietnam, a war without apparent end, the story itself is dull and rote, enamored of its own technological descriptions of battles to the detriment of plot of character development.

The war in the book comes about because humanity has discovered “collapsars,” relativistic oddities in space (not that dissimilar to black holes) that allow for travel at speeds approaching that of light, leading to a brief period of exploration that hits a wall when one ship is attacked by an unknown alien species called the Taurans. The protagonist and narrator William Mandella is a physics student and conscript for one of the first strike forces asked to go out first to the fictional planet of Charon beyond Pluto (the book was written before the moon of Pluto given that name was discovered) and then to attack the Taurans in a suspected base on a hostile planet beyond one of the collapsars. Due to time dilation, Mandella and the other surviving soldiers have aged just two years but return to an earth vastly changed by several decades, a bombastic, unintentionally comic vision of an overpopulated planet under a one-world dictatorship that seized power in response to the Tauran threat. The novel then deals with Mandella’s difficulties handling the gaps in time between his returns to civilian life and the harsh reality of fighting an enemy for unknown reasons with no apparent goal or exit strategy.

Haldeman had served in Vietnam, and it’s only possible to read this book as a thinly-veiled autobiographical novel that serves to lampoon the military structure that sent American boys to die in a war without purpose while also displaying the effects the war had on the soldiers who survived. The war against the Taurans is a dull one, and Haldeman is not, here, much of a storyteller: the prose is dry and the descriptions technical, with lengthy explanations of futuristic weaponry and tactics that suck energy even out of the battle scenes, let alone the lengthy description of the soldiers’ training on the impossible world of Charon.

The sequence back on earth several decades after the soldiers have left reads like a short story inserted into a novel, bearing little resemblance to the story before or after, and on its own is just bad dystopian fiction by someone who read The Population Bomb. Haldeman drops in the usual food-shortage stuff along with the fear of authoritarian governments, but where he gets really bizarre is when he has “homosex” rising first as a natural consequence of the overpopulation and eventually something encouraged by government, becoming the new normal for humanity further into the future, with heterosexual urges treated as a mental illness. It seems to treat homosexuality as deviant and repulsive, using it as a tool to show the awful future of the human race.

Viewed as allegory, however, The Forever War seems to hit its mark. The war itself is as pointless as it gets: Humanity’s immediate response to the possible attack on one of our ships – which was somewhere else in the galaxy than our solar system – is all-out war, along with building up terrestrial defenses against an attack that isn’t threatened or even particularly likely. There is no attempt to communicate with the Taurans, or even any idea what they look like; soldiers are sent out to kill and destroy. The subsequent war becomes one of attrition, with battles waged over lifeless rocks that have no meaning to either side, and with neither side ever gaining anything like an advantage in the overall battle – with gauging advantage made especially difficult by the time dilation, so ships are sent off in one stage of the war and return in another entirely. (Haldeman obeys the laws of physics to the point of omitting faster-than-light communications.) Soldiers are given posthypnotic suggestions to make them want to kill the Taurans on sight, treating the aliens as enemies regardless of what actually happens on the field of battle.

One could make the historical argument that the Vietnam War was justified because the United States was trying to prevent a hostile dictatorship from taking over an entire country, subjecting millions of people to what turned out to be twenty-plus years of poverty and suppression. The U.S. justified it at the time by invoking the domino theory that each country that fell to communism further enabled the next revolution; perhaps showing the Soviet Union that funding additional insurgencies would cost them more because we were willing to spend to fight them. The war against the Taurans in The Forever War can’t even rise to those levels of reasoning, because the Taurans aren’t clearly threatening anyone; the metaphor works in the sense that neither the Taurans nor the Viet Cong were threatening “us,” so why were we trying so hard to kill them, putting our own men at risk by doing so? At best, the logic extended to protecting our ships if another should encounter the Taurans randomly beyond another collapsar, but without understanding what caused the first incident, even this – given the enormous expense involved – seems specious.

Books that seem to work strictly on that metaphorical or allegorical level generally leave me cold because of how much they miss, and The Forever War did just that, more than anything else because the characters are so one-dimensional. Mandella is intelligent but hardly wise or smart, and his return home after his first tour of duty – into the dystopian section of the book – is surprisingly emotionless. The closest thing the book has to another core character is his girlfriend Marygay, who has no personality to speak of, and of necessity disappears for a few chapters at a time. Without a compelling individual character at the heart of the book, the read becomes stolid and dull, even when we should be feeling the intensity of a battle scene. So for all its accolades – and the book’s cover has some very impressive quotes from other authors – The Forever War fell very short for me.

Next up: I’m currently reading Jeff Passan’s The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports.

Stick to baseball, 4/16/16.

I had a few Insiders posts this week, starting with the top 50 draft prospects, along with the list of the most prospect-laden minor league rosters, and a scouting blog from games earlier this week on Erick Fedde, Josh Staumont, Dansby Swanson, and Braxton Davidson. I also held a Klawchat on Wednesday to tie it into the draft rankings.

And now, the links…

  • Fusion looks into the shadowy world of “IP mapping,”, and God help you if the companies that do this use your house as a default address for thousands or millions of IP addresses.
  • This incredible four-year-old New Yorker profile of a Michigan dentist who cheated at marathons resurfaced this week as a link in a NY Times story about a triathlon competitor who also stands accused of fraud.
  • How can NPR survive in a world shifting towards podcasting? NPR’s core audience is aging, and they’re slow to adapt … but I’d still take their newscasts over any other single source in the United States for balance, thoroughness, and acknowledgement that there are more than five countries in the world.
  • On the heels of last week’s longread about sugar vs fat in our diets, the director of the Cleveland Clinic’s Center for Functional Medicine describes his conversion from a low-fat diet to a “paleo-vegan” diet, built primarily around plants but without skimping on fats, even some saturated ones.
  • Yes, of course President Obama can just appoint Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. I think that’s what the GOP is hoping he’ll do, so they can call him an autocrat and drum up support from their base.
  • The BBC’s Trending column examines the right-wing troll who encourages followers to dox her critics. She’s married to an Illinois police officer, and claims she’s been harassed offline as well. The author describes this as one example of the “culture wars” online, and sure enough, a troll followed the publication of this article by creating a fake account designed to look like the author’s.
  • A man who claims to be on the U.S.’s “kill list” for drone attacks describes what it’s like to be hunted, and how many innocent people have died in four failed attempts to kill him. Drone attacks are too palatable – as long as none of “our” people die, it’s all good, right?
  • Brigham Young University treats sexual assault victims as criminals themselves, subjecting them to “honor code” investigations, with expulsion – yes, expulsion for being raped – among the possible outcomes. “Honor code” is just another way of victim-blaming, of course, and here it comes at a university founded by and named after a racist, abusive polygamist (he had 55 wives). The school’s actions violate Title IX rules and are now endangering a rape prosecution, but administrators don’t seem to see this as a problem.
  • The Republican majority in Congress is trying to undo Net Neutrality by stripping the FCC of some of its regulatory powers and President Obama is having none of it. This puts the Republicans, historically the party of business and of capitalist policies, on the wrong side, favoring a few very large companies over an open-market solution that should encourage more innovation and more small business growth.
  • People with anxiety disorder appear to have fundamental brain differences from those without.
  • Rappers discuss their histories with depression in a surprisingly candid piece at VICE.
  • Good stuff from FiveThirtyEight’s sports department: They examined a Joe Sheehan hypothesis about older hitters struggling with the game’s increased velocity and found no evidence to support it, even looking at it from a few different angles. Joe floated the hypothesis in his email newsletter, to which I have subscribed since day one, and recommend highly.
  • The Tampa Bay Times reveals how many Bay-area “farm to table” restaurants lie about the provenance of their ingredients. This is horrifying on many levels, not the least of which is that these restaurants are outright lying to customers.
  • Vacciner deniers aren’t stupid, says this Atlantic piece, arguing instead that it comes from parents feeling “powerless” in the face of mandates. I think that’s stupid. Vaccine-denialists are overwhelmingly practicing extreme selection bias in what they read or believe, and if that ain’t the definition of stupidity, well, maybe I ain’t that smart.

Klawchat 4/13/16.

Klaw: How strange it is to be anything at all. Klawchat.

Ryan: You talked about swing and miss with Kyle Lewis. I know he has more BBs than Ks this year. Are you saying that’s because of competition?
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line there. You can swing and miss quite a bit and still walk a lot. And when scouts go see these players, they’re also looking at what the hitter does against better quality pitching. Lewis does play in a bad conference and hasn’t faced anything close to what the hitters in the SEC are facing.

Alex in Austin: In the past you seemed to be a proponent of Brian O’Connor and his program, yet after your most recent visit to Charlottesville it seems the sentiment has changed and you’re lower on Jones and Thaiss than others. What would you suggest the coaching staff do differently?
Klaw: I think he’s run a great college program, recruiting well, obviously winning games, and in general never overworked his arms. But over the last 4-5 years it seems like they’ve tried to imprint the same delivery on every pitcher, which 1) i don’t like because every player’s body is different and 2) the delivery they push appears to be less than mechanically sound.

John: Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?
Klaw: Top 5. Wouldn’t have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).

Pat: Usual caveats aside, but Kaprielian touching 97 and absolutely dominating in High A is a great sign. Temper my unparalleled excitement a bit please.
Klaw: If I temper your excitement, who’s going to temper mine?

Bill: With Rutherford being 19, do you think he might be able to move faster than the 18 year-old HS prospects?
Klaw: I do. This is the hope if you draft him. I understand the history of 19-year-old HS bats is poor, but in this class I don’t see any better HS hit tools.

Patrick: What to make of Dylan Bundy’s two appearances for the Orioles? He was a hot prospect a few years back, but injury had sapped a lot of the excitement around him.
Klaw: Stuff looks fine but it’s a durability question. He’s got calcification in his shoulder, and I have zero idea how well he can hold up or how much he can pitch. (Which isn’t to say he can’t; I’m saying I have absolutely no clue, because we lack precedents.)

Joe: You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?
Klaw: Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.

Paul: Klaw – saw your tweet about reading ‘Danny, The Champion of the World” to your daughter. I was a huge Dahl fan as a kid. Saw ‘The BFG’ is coming to the big screen and hoping it’s good; would like to get my niece into his books.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

David: I’m a Mets fan struggling to keep myself all calm and rational despite this early start…..oh, you mean I’m discussing Noah Syndergaard and his death slider??? Keith, i know it’s SSS but Syndergaard has 18 swings and misses on 45 sliders – how can one stay calm in the face of this? 🙂
Klaw: See my Kaprelian answer. Someone – Kurkjian maybe? – I work with picked Thor to win the CYA and that’s looking rather smart right now.

Uncle Ruckus: My Brew Crew have the 5th overall pick. What are the odds either SP Pint or Hansen are still available? I’m assuming Puk & Groome would already be taken. Or is a SS like Delvin Perez or any of the top shelf OFs so good that a team as loaded with young SS/OF talent as the Crew would pick one of them over a potential ace of the future? Thanks!
Klaw: Read my top 50 from the other day – Hansen is out of the rotation, Puk hasn’t really pitched in two weeks.

Tad Billows: I follow you pretty regularly and I am wondering what your thoughts are on the pitcher out of Pitt, named TJ Zeuch. The kid is 6’7″ tall, 225 lbs, sits 92-95 (topping out at 98), with a plus curve, avg to plus slider and a serviceable change up but I don’t recall you ever talking about him. I read from others that he is projected first or sandwich round. Sounds REALLY projectable. Thoughts?
Klaw: I’ve talked to scouts who’ve seen him and what you offered is not an accurate scouring report. What you described would probably be the odds-on 1-1 favorite.

Todd: Who are you most excited about in the A’s system and why?
Klaw: Barreto, because he’s the best prospect (duh?).

Matthew: Is Trace Thompson just a 4OF or can he see regular playing time here on out. Kendrick is apparently a possibility to see OF work too now so wondering how you think that plays out.
Klaw: I think he has a chance to be a regular. Not a lock, but enough defense + power to get there even if he strikes out too much.

Joey (Oakland): i had no idea how bad Khris Davis’ plate discipline is. He looks awful right now. Please tell me this is just early season bias and he’ll get better?
Klaw: He’s produced more than I expected the last two years but you identified the reason I thought he’d peak as a fourth OF. He has power, but as a hitter … I wouldn’t say he ‘can’t hit’ but his approach ranges from not good to lousy.

Craig: Do you see the Brewers taking a high-ceiling, low-floor player (college or HS) with the #5 pick?
Klaw: No. I see them taking best player available because that’s what Ray Montgomery has done in every draft he’s ever overseen as a scouting director. And if you look at his track record you should be very very fine with this.

Maddon: Contreras is continuing to rake at AAA. I know he has more to learn about catching, but isn’t 2-3 days of him better than having Ross and Montero take all seven games in a week?
Klaw: No, not if you agree that he has work to do behind the plate. It’s not like the big league team is hurting now either.

ECinDC: How did Erick Fedde look? Is he back to pre-draft form? Based on your tweets, seemed ok! Also, do Nats do anything particularly well dealing with young injured pitchers?
Klaw: Two pitch guy, nothing to get LHB out. Hard to see him as a starter with that arsenal.

Sean in Tallahassee: Saw your brief write up on D. Mendoza (Lake Minneola); any extended thoughts/how far is he from top 50 ranking?
Klaw: Has to be somewhere in the next 50 but the swing and miss plus the mechanics – the guy’s ass is in the dugout – give him huge bust potential.

Nate: You mentioned on twitter yesterday that the Reds weren’t in on Delvin Perez? Is there a particular reason they aren’t interested?
Klaw: I said I don’t think he’s in their mix. That could be wrong – it’s still plenty early for teams to change their minds.

Nils: You’ve mentioned many times to not read into small sample size. I understand that completely with regards to stats, but does that also go for tools? If a guy who usually throws 90-94 is suddenly hitting 95-98 in one game, do you wait to see it again before taking it seriously?
Klaw: Yes, that’s absolutely true. A dose of skepticism can come in handy in this job. I’d rather be a little late on the bandwagon than be the guy waving the flag for every kid who had a great outing.

Brian: Keith, you have seen a few games at Wilmington commenting on prospects from other orgs. Is there any prospect on the Wilmington roster worth keeping an eye on for a Royals fan? Thanks.
Klaw: Staumont, whom I tweeted about this morning. O’Hearn is the only bat of note and I see more strength than hit tool. He does put the ball in play a lot, which has gotten him some extra hits thanks to A-ball fielding. Usually a guy like him would swing and miss more.

David: Regarding HS pitchers – do teams prefer guys pitch 4 or 5 innings per week to “save” their arms? It amazes me that MLB teams will hand out 5 or 6M to a kid who pitches maybe 40-50 innings. I guess the real question is do you think being a work-horse pitcher is something you are born with or is it an attribute that can be molded?
Klaw: We don’t want to see anyone pitching while fatigued. There isn’t a magic number, but we all know what it looks like when a kid is tired – his velo drops, his command wavers, his arm slot drifts down, etc. If you’re a HS coach reading this, please, don’t do that. Take him out five pitches too soon if you have to.

Sven: Are teams generally being more aggressive in pushing their prospects? Alex Verdugo to AA at 19yo and Corny Randolph to full-A at 18yo?
Klaw: No, I thought Randolph had to go to Lakewood – most advanced HS bat in the class last year, what the hell is he going to learn in extended spring training? – and sending Verdugo to the Cal League might not help him much either.

Danny: Could a team win if they fielded a lineup that averaged an OBP of .375 but hit no home runs?
Klaw: Yes, but who the hell would watch?

Don: Hello Keith, love the chats and insider stuff should a team with small money allocations for the draft (like the cubs this year) be wise to spend big on one guy and draft seniors and other low dollar players to pay for it or try and draft evenly through the draft even though they likely wont get a known stud?
Klaw: I think they have to be prepared for the overslot kid who slides to them, so they can call the quick audible, take him, and know what their plan is through the rest of the top ten. If the right player doesn’t fall, then just take BPA as usual.

Don: When it comes to draft you say, and I believe also, you draft BPA but how big is each teams scouting board? when does the dart throwing start for teams? seems with 40 rounds teams would be taking shots in the dark in last 5-10 rounds
Klaw: The boards are usually structured in several segments; in Toronto we had the top board of anywhere from 50-100 guys, then started breaking down by position, with separate areas for medicals, unsignables, and so on.

Nelson: To what do you attribute the explosion of popularity of food tourism?
Klaw: Television. And I guess social media too. Eating is now an activity we share and discuss with people who aren’t at the table. I often eat alone on the road, which is fine with me because it’s quick and I always have a book, but a big dinner at a great restaurant with a bunch of friends is an experience to hold on to.

GN: My nephew is deciding right now between the University of Wisconsin on a full scholarship versus Harvard on no scholarship, which would incur him about $5k of debt per year. We’re getting all sorts of varying opinions on the matter, which would you choose? He’s interested in medicine btw, but he’s also 18 so who knows if that’s what he will pursue in the end.
Klaw: If it’s only $5k/year, go to Harvard. The value of that name on the resume will more than cover the added expense. If you were comparing full cost at Harvard to no cost at another school, I’d answer differently.

Alpha610: Only reason for Michael Reed not yet being up is because of the service time bs, right? Brewers are trotting out absolute scrubs in CF right now.
Klaw: I assume so but haven’t asked. He didn’t play AAA last year so perhaps they wanted him to get 100+ AB there.

Adam S: Why do major news outlets give a forum to so much anti-science, anti-fact? Today (pun intended) De Niro, but more broadly “analysis” lacking any factual basis on ESPN or MLB Network?
Klaw: Because they want eyeballs and give no fucks about fact, science, or responsibility. TODAY’s producers should be ashamed. I doubt they are though.

Tim: Hey Keith, enjoyed the top 50 – thanks for all of your and Eric’s hard work. If you’re the Reds, with the largest pool in the draft and the #2 and #35 picks in the 1st round, and the #42 pick (#2 in 2nd round), what would be your strategy with those three picks? (Assume Groome gets snatched up by the McPhillies). Seems like they can go underslot with their first pick and really go after guys they want with their 2nd two picks.
Klaw: I don’t think the Phillies want a HS arm at 1. If the Reds want Groome, great – probably demands full slot there, but you should get any player you take for the amount of the slot at #3, which would save you a million or so. I’d say then go hard after the guys you like at the next two slots – and while it’s illegal, yes, call some kids and say “hey, we’ll give you $3MM at pick 35, if you want that, tell other teams you’re not signing” because EVERYBODY does this – and then go cheaper in rounds 4-10 if necessary. A draft where you land three impact or elite upside talents is probably going to be a great one even if you have to take a few extra seniors to pay for it.

Mike: Please don’t consider this an angry “you hate my team” rant. I really want to ask if it is possible if PECOTA and other prediction methods don’t properly rate some types of teams? For example, both the Royals and Orioles seem to be consistently underrated in the preseason despite success in winning games the past few seasons (so we are past SSS). Does PECOTA maybe undervalue defense? Bullpens? Or God forbid, managers? With all the advances in statistical analysis, I just think there may be a small blind spot for some type of teams. Thanks!
Klaw: Better question for the folks who do those projections. My guess is that you’re focusing too much on small blips that over long periods would even out more. A projection system coming in short on one team three years in a row probably isn’t that unusual if we had the ability to look at 50 years of projections and results.

Lopez 2.0: It looks like Eovaldi has added a sick 89-91 mph slider to his arsenal. Got a lot of whiffs on it against Houston. However, in that outing the Astros consistently made contact with his 96-99 mph heater, and it looked like it had pretty good movement on it as well. Is the reason Eovaldi gets hit so often because guys see the ball so well out of his hands? I can’t think of anything else.
Klaw: That and the fastball is straight enough to hang laundry on.

David (ATL): When you start putting together mock drafts, what percentage of that is based on specific intel you are getting from clubs/scouts vs. your guesses based on prior drafts or organizational philosophy?
Klaw: As close to 100% as I can possibly get it. This is why I don’t do mocks early – teams haven’t narrowed their decision sets yet. And I hate saying “they’re on player X” and finding out later that they were not on player X.

JD: You seem unenthusiastic about this year’s crop. Does 2017 look more exciting?
Klaw: It does, and I’m not just saying that because that’s what we say every year. I like the college pitching crop already, and a couple of SoCal scouts have told me it’s a huge HS crop out there next year too.

Michael: I saw Lowe and Kieboom last Friday……Lowe showed his power first AB with a bomb to straighaway center. Question is how does he project defensively?? He did boot a ball that seemed like a fairly routine play at 3rd
Klaw: Nice, I’m planning to see Lowe vs Benson this Friday (and maybe stop by Spiller Park Coffee that morning). I’ve heard the arm plays anywhere but he’d need a lot of work at third. Would like to see myself, of course.

Dan: Odds right now on the #1 pick in June – are you taking Groome or the field?
Klaw: The field. I got a question from someone named Dan on Facebook that assumed that the no-hitter Groome threw the other day improved his standing and made him the favorite to go 1 now. My response was a bit short, but I’ll offer more depth here: No, it doesn’t, because results aren’t as important at that level as stuff, body, and mechanics (remember Patrick Schuster?); because Groome faces some awful competition and is going to put up some ungodly numbers down there; and because it happened before I posted my list so I would have made any adjustments if I thought one was required. I hope that answers other-Dan’s question more fully.

JD: Lets assume Olivera gets more severely punished — either legally or by the league — than Chapman and Reyes. Will you have any concern that stars are getting treated differently from lesser players — and particularly, foreign players without as solid a footing in the US?
Klaw: No because in this case i think MLB will have better info. If the police report is accurate, he may face jail time. The other two guys skated on legal repercussions.

G: Have you read “Possession” by A.S. Byatt? I find myself completely entranced by it–reminds me of Nabokov’s “Pale Fire” in deconstructing the novel.
Klaw: Yes. Didn’t love either of those books for the reason you liked them. I like novels. Stop deconstructing them in front of me.

addoeh: Any scouting trips planned to permafrost land to see Cooper Johnson, Lux, and Rortvedt? Plenty of Culver’s around, plus a trip to Kopp’s.
Klaw: Johnson perhaps, the others are probably going to be too tough with my schedule. Johnson at least is easy because he’s near Chicago and I can do other stuff while there.

Amru: At the end of the day, do Braves draft according to need (college bat), or do they take best player available (Pint, Perez, Rutherford, etc)?
Klaw: I don’t agree that those two will be different.

Mike: Does rhe 7-0 start change your opinion on the Orioles at all?
Klaw: No, because a major league season has 162 games.

Jake: Could Orlando Arcia be the #1 prospect next year if he doesn’t graduate?
Klaw: Sure, that’s possible.

Nelson: Do you see Inciarte and Mallex Smith in the same outfield on a championship caliber team?
Klaw: I do not.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to music in front of your daughter? If so, how do you handle bad language? avoid it? talk over it? talk about it?
Klaw: Yes. We talk about it. She knows those words. I don’t really see a reason to censor bands she likes (e.g., CHVRCHES) because of an occasional profanity. If the song’s entire content were objectionable, that would be a different story. She’s still only 9 so topics like sex are still off limits.

Lucien: Thoughts on the Giants locking up Belt until 2021?
Klaw: Those deals are nearly always good for the clubs. This one was also good for the player given his injuries and inconsistency earlier in his career.

Joe: Where does Bo Bichette end up on the field? Any chance to stay at short?
Klaw: No chance at short. I think second or third. I like him more than the industry, I think; he’s calmed down his swing a lot, so early impressions may still be hurting him, plus his brother struggling could have people wary of Bo. I see an athletic kid with bat speed, strong hands, and a manic style of play.

Michael: It seems like a lot of teams purposely keep their better prospects in Florida or warmer areas to start the minor league season. Is that something you would do as an executive of a cold weather team? Should players learn to play in the cold, or does it not really matter?
Klaw: If a player were ready developmentally for low-A, I’d send him to low-A and buy him a winter coat.

Ryan: What college program comes to mind first when you think of a staff that manages arms well?
Klaw: Vanderbilt. They produce big leaguers and they’ve had fewer guys get hurt (compared to the total volume of arms) than any other major program.

UGW: Taylor Hearn has unreal stuff, but iffy command. Future reliever?
Klaw: No question.

Mumford’s son: How do MLB teams deal with that one prospect whose father seems like a nut job? Are there teams that won’t consider him at all?
Klaw: Yes, and some teams will just hope the father will be isolated once the player signs and moves away from home.

Kay: Mets fan here. Would this be a good year to have a pair of later first rounders? No clear huge talents at the top of the draft, bit more depth?
Klaw: It’s a good year to have what they have, money and an extra pick or two. You can get creative.

Andy: To the person who was amazed by teams giving 5-6million for kids who have pitched 50-60 innings but maybe could do more, Darren O’Day will be paid $6m this season with a career high in IP at 69.
Klaw: Nice.

Niel: Do you think Mazara could be up in the big leagues for good? When Choo gets back, maybe Desmond slides to CF and Mazara moves to left?
Klaw: And bench DeShields? I think it makes the lineup better, but I don’t think the Rangers view DD as that dispensable.

Martin: Keith, I hear Greg Maddux is getting his pitching staff to chart previous game pitches? Surely with modern day scouting it’s a token gesture or do you see any value in it?
Klaw: It forces the pitchers to focus attention on the games. If I tell you to watch a game, you’re not bearing down as you would if you had to chart the game.

Rich: Does kaprielian have top 2 starter potential with added velocity?
Klaw: Yes, in theory, although I think it’s a little early to start revising anyone’s ceiling. It’s all hypothetical now anyway – it’s not like players are changing teams in April.

Andy: The issue with the Michael Reed in AAA thing, they aren’t even playing him in CF. Instead, they’re playing Eric Young.
Klaw: I did not notice that, but that’s awful. The biggest surprise I have had out of David Stearns’ tenure there is that he did not turn over the player development staff after he got the job.

Lindsay: I really like when you call people out on black-and-white issues, such as climate change and vaccines. But it bothers me–and you can correct me if I’m wrong–when you do this on non-black-and-white issues. On Twitter, you seemed to imply that being pro-life is anti-woman and that the abortion debate is easy. I have thought long and hard about abortion and still don’t truly know which side to fall on. It is a hard issue. I am a woman too and I don’t think being pro-life is anti-woman at all.
Klaw: Twitter is lousy for anything that isn’t black and white. Any time I’ve thought about scaling back my Twitter use, that’s been the main reason. (I dreamed last night I’d been off Twitter for several months. It seemed rather unreal.) In that discussion with a reader who rather openly advocated for Kasich, I pointed out that his policies as a whole and his anti-abortion stance in particular were not pro-woman. However, I do think that giving a woman the right to an abortion, which includes the right to choose never to have an abortion, is a woman’s rights issue. Attempts by largely male government bodies to deny them this right, then craft convoluted exceptions – as I pointed out to that user, if a woman says she was raped and wants an abortion, does she need paperwork? Does she have to wait for a conviction? – strike me, at least, as contrary to a basic sense of human rights for women.

Brook: Do you think the NCCA rule change enabling agents to officially negotiate on behalf of HS kids will have any material impact on the draft? I would like to think better representation will lead to increased bonuses for prospects, but with the allotment caps, I’m not sure where that money would come from.
Klaw: I think it’ll allow teams to better understand what players want financially and make predraft conversations more productive. I’m hoping we’ll also get fewer postdraft misunderstandings that scotch deals. Karsten Whitson was one, where, as far as I could reconstruct the matter, his father was telling the Padres one thing and the advisor another.

Kay: When drafting/ranking prospects, how much value is there in a high floor? There’s such a high failure rate for developing players, I imagine there’s value in having a “sure” bet for an average-above average player. How do you factor in high ceiling vs. low floor in your ranking?
Klaw: Good question that is impossible to answer in a clear, logical fashion, because the rankings themselves are subjective. I do a lot of pairwise comparisons, and think about whether i’d rather have what this player is likely to be, times some mental estimate of his probability, versus what this player is likely to be (or could be, if it’s a high-ceiling guy), times some mental estimate of that probability.

Eric: Hey Keith, great chat. Not going to hold you to it, but do you have a general idea in your head where Brandon McIllwain would’ve ranked in your draft top 50 if he stayed in H.S. for his senior baseball season?
Klaw: Thought he was a late first-rounder.

Amru: What’s the ceiling on Braxton Davidson? A Mitch Moreland-type player, or is that perhaps too optimistic? I know he’s consistently been younger than his competition, but have to worry some about the strikeouts.
Klaw: Needs to be more aggressive when he gets ahead in the count. Saw two hits today, then two strikeouts vs Swanson on bigger velocity. Think he has more upside than Moreland, but a long way to go to get there.

Tyler: True or False: Fredi Gonzalez is the Braves manager at the All Star break.
Klaw: True.

Casey: How likely do you think it is Alec Hansen drops to the 30’s? Might a team do something similar with him that the Royals did with Manaea?
Klaw: Yes, but I don’t know to what extent his issues are physical, and if teams will know ahead of time the way they knew Manaea needed hip surgery.

Martin: Have you managed to catch The Night Manager (Hugh Laurie) yet? If so, thoughts?
Klaw: Hasn’t aired here yet. First episode is Tuesday, I think.

Amru: Given your hectic schedule, how do you manage to find time to satisfy your voracious reading appetite? I swear it never seems like there’s enough time in the day to fit more than a couple chapters in.
Klaw: I bring a book with me wherever I go.

Corey: Benintendi has picked up where he left off, raking in Salem. How soon would you consider moving him to AA and at his current trajectory possible he’s in MLB by next season a la Conforto ? Speaking of Salem, best team in the minors ? crazy how much talent is there
Klaw: Conforto made the majors 12 months after he signed, so for Benintendi that would be this June. If they want that to happen, they have to have a quick trigger on a promotion to AA. I think he’ll be ready for that soon if not already.

Ridley Kemp: Aren’t you concerned about being labelled a “Social Justice Warrior” and getting on someone’s list?
Klaw: I’ve been labelled lots of things. Doesn’t bother me.

Ben: Quantrill to the A’s at 6, is that a probable outcome?
Klaw: He hasn’t pitched this year, so I’d say no. I’ve heard they’d love Senzel if he’s there.

Corey: Except that pro-life usually means pro-birth since that crowd doesn’t seem to care much about “life” after delivery.
Klaw: And the responsibility for that life falls disproportionately on the mother. I have thought about this, and read about it, for probably 20 years, trying to even craft a rational policy that restricts abortion (just as a thought exercise) without being internally illogical or structurally discriminatory. I haven’t found one.

ECinDC: Related to football players getting paid, which I think you support, what you you think should be done for baseball players? Seems to make sense that they should be able to go pro at any point if NCAA wants to continue to not pay.
Klaw: I agree. I think the “stay for three years” rule is stupid. Why is MLB helping college baseball? Does college baseball help MLB? In general, college coaches don’t develop players, and we have the constant conflict over pitcher use.

Fred Wilpon’s accountant: I went through your profile of the top 50 draft prospects and, admittedly I didn’t count them, but it seemed like there were quite a few names from colder weather states. This is not something I have paid attention to in the past so it may not be unusual but I expected fewer names from the north. Is it unusual or am I seeing something that is not there?
Klaw: It’s a weak year in SoCal and Texas.

Kay: For the record, I feel like you sometimes rub people the wrong way because you are very sure of your beliefs and don’t really budge to dissenting opinions. I’m cool with you have different feelings on subjects than I do – that’s kind of how discourse and debate work. I appreciate that you have very strongly held morals and beliefs.
Klaw: Thank you. I think this is also a function of Twitter, or just writing in general, because it often comes off as toneless (or readers infer the tone they want – if you like what I say, I’m being funny, if you dislike it, I’m being an asshole). In person, even when arguing Big Serious Topics, I don’t think I come off so harshly, although I guess I’ll leave that to the readers I’ve met over the years to verify or debunk.

Sean: Orphan Black. 4.14.2013. See you then.
Klaw: I assume you mean this week’s premiere … we’ll binge it this summer, since we whacked most of our cable subscriptions.

Michael: Like you, I wish college players in revenue sports would get paid. But I struggle to think of a method to actually do this. Should the best players receive signing bonuses out of high school? Surely, the field goal kicker shouldn’t make the same as the quarterback. How would you actually go about paying them?
Klaw: Market value with a preset minimum tied to revenue. QBs will get big money, Kickers would likely get the minimum.

Ryan: Still think Senzel in the top 5 is a bad move? Where do you stand on his future power?
Klaw: I’ve heard it’s more like 55 raw, but plays down in game. If I told you you could have an average defender at third with average power and an above-average hit tool, where would you take that? Is that peak Bill Mueller?

Adam: Will Bobby Dalbec have to pitch at the next level to be successful?
Klaw: He isn’t getting anywhere at the plate right now.

BD: At even the best NCAA baseball programs, most players are not on full scholarship correct? Or has that changed?
Klaw: I believe that’s correct.

Andy: While I realize that players determine somewhat, do laws like North Carolina’s HB2 mean that you may choose to not see someone live to avoid traveling to the state?
Klaw: If I have such discretion, yes, I would try to see those players elsewhere.

Drew: It strikes me as odd to bring up Kepler strictly as a 4th outfielder (injury replacement). I would rather he get regular AB’s with the hope that he hits his way to the everyday big league lineup by summer. Thoughts?
Klaw: I would too, but I’ll also wait and see how this plays out a bit. Perhaps they’re planning to send Buxton out sooner rather than later if the strikeouts continue.

Ridley Kemp: It boggles my mind that the very concept of probability was developed so late in the game. What’s the next science or math book on your radar?
Klaw: Brian Greene’s Elegant Universe.

Michael: As a pro-science person though, how do you reconcile the overwhelming scientific evidence that a zygote, for instance, is human and an entirely separate being from the mother? If you ignore the social aspects and just focus on the biological ones, it’s somewhat difficult to be pro-choice.
Klaw: Because this “overwhelming scientific evidence” does not exist.

Jeff: I know the team just made the World Series, but isn’t Terry Collins one of the worst possible managers to have on a team built on pitching? Maybe it’s just personal bias, but it seems like the man destroys arms, no? He has Henderson pitching today, his 5th appearance in 8 games, after he threw 35 pitches last night!
Klaw: Lot I don’t like about Collins, but I have never thought of him as a destroyer of arms.

Amru: So does this mean we can’t expect you to visit Asheville again anytime soon? A large majority of us Ashevillains hate and revile HB2.
Klaw: Actually never been there.

Jose G: Hey Keith, I know how much you hate comps but reading your acouting report on Kyle Lewis, I couldn’t help but think George Springer. What’s the likelihood that Lewis goes to the Braves at 3 for a discount?
Klaw: He’s not like Springer. Springer was way more physical at that age. Maybe the toolsiest college position player I’ve ever seen.

Pat: Like others, I don’t always agree with everything you say (talking SERIOUS issues, not baseball), but, appreciate your candor & firm beliefs. With that in mind, what is a “serious issue”, you don’t have a firm belief or something you go back & forth on? I’ll admit mine has always been abortion.
Klaw: I find drug legalization a complex one, although if asked to stake one position, I’m in favor of decriminalizing use. A lot of economics questions fall in the gray area for me, often because any new policy will create or change who wins and who loses. The minimum wage discussion we had here under Saturday’s stick to baseball post is a good example: I support higher minimum wages, but recognize they won’t benefit everyone, and feel like they’re being treated as a panacea when they’re really just shifting around some surpluses.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Baker > Collins.
Klaw: Can’t do that. Baker’s got a long history of mistakes.

Jake: Let’s just end all of the questions about who the Braves could take at #3 by asking this; who do you think the Braves take at #3?
Klaw: It depends on who goes 1 and 2!

Tim: Do you think Polanco will ever hit enough fly balls to homer 30 times a year? I’m just imagining some of those laser beams he hits off the PNC Park Wall turning into 450 foot bombs into the river……
Klaw: Yes. Certainly 25.

Jeb: Do you think that any new, effective pitches have yet to be discovered? I’d like to believe that someone could come up with a new way to spin and move a ball given all the possible permutations, but I’m guessing that given the limitations of the human arm/hand/wrist, we may have already tested everything.
Klaw: Inclined to think the latter. Just a guess.

Jeb: Have you tried any ramen places in NY?
Klaw: Only one, in Chelsea Market. I need to try more everything in NY. It’s a goal for 2016.

John: In the Cubs’ only loss so far, Maddon decided to let Strop pitch to Goldschmidt in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and the tying run on third (Peralta on deck). Goldschmidt ended up knocking in the run, then Peralta got out. Maddon got some mild criticism for not calling for the IBB, but didn’t he make the right call? Over the long haul, isn’t it better to avoid the IBB (even with someone as good as Goldschmidt up) when the on deck hitter is also pretty good?
Klaw: Yes, and you usually want to avoid putting on another runner (and potential run), and to avoid reducing your pitcher’s margin for error if the IBB were to load the bases.

Ryan: Regarding the Kyle Lewis question earlier, would you have a problem with Atlanta taking him at 3 if they get him at less than the 4th pick’s slot?
Klaw: If Ray’s on the board I would not be a fan of this.

Martin: Austerity or debt fuelled stimulus?
Klaw: My problem – and I’m not that great on econ stuff – is that when we rack up debt during a recession to stimulate the economy, we kind of forget to pay it off when the economy is growing again.

JD: Mallex Smith didn’t make your Braves top-20+, so I don’t think I’ve seen you write about him. Thought?
Klaw: Can run, high contact guy, no power. Tough profile in this environment where similar low-power guys like Hamilton and Burns have had trouble making enough quality contact to be good hitters. Those two have contributed as defenders; I don’t have a good enough feel for Smith’s defense to say he might be that good. Also, Atlanta’s system is loaded.

Ryan: What kind of stat line do you project Corey Ray to put up in the big leagues? .280/.340 with 20 homers/20 steals?
Klaw: Yep, I could see that. I mentioned that he’s had issues with lefties this year, but I should have qualified that that’s from scouts saying he doesn’t see them well; he actually has no real platoon split on the season as a whole.

His dopey manager: Does Syndergaard have the best stuff in the big leagues?
Klaw: Kershaw’s still got that title for me.

Jeb: Totto’s Hell’s Kitchen location is awesome. Terrible lines, but the ramen is excellent.
Klaw: I’ve waited in line at Franklin BBQ with @lana so I’m not afraid of a little wait.

JD: Played Patchwork yet? Delightful two-player game, seems like something your daughter might enjoy based on how you’ve described her gaming tastes.
Klaw: Yep, reviewed it about this time last year. App is good too if you can get past the cutesy graphics.

mets: Collins just put in Henderson after he threw a career high last night and predictably he loads the bases with no outs. wtf!
Klaw: Isn’t he just back from shoulder surgery too? I hope I’m thinking of the wrong guy.

Joe: Not a draft question – how often, if at all, is the baseline of “replacement player” adjusted? Who makes that decision? Is there consensus on what constitutes replacement level or do different organizations/publications use their own standards?
Klaw: When asked to open that particular box, Pandora said, “Fuck it.”

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you for jumping up a day with me. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week. I’ll also have a short column on the minors’ best Opening Day rosters for prospects out on Friday, plus other blog posts coming in the next couple of days.

Stick to baseball, 4/8/16.

My standings and awards predictions for 2016 went up last Saturday, in case you missed those. My one Insider piece since then was a draft blog post, co-authored with Eric Longenhagen, covering Jason Groome, Bryson Brigman, and more. We will have a top 50 draft prospect ranking up on Tuesday.

I held my usual Klawchat on Thursday, going a bit longer than normal because I was so busy answering your questions I lost track of time.

And now, the links…

  • Best longread of the week comes from the Guardian, which explains how nutrition scientists pushed low-fat advice and ignored science for decades, even to the point of destroying the career of the first scientist to sound the anti-sugar bell. A Harvard professor is cited within the piece as demanding the retraction of a peer-reviewed article published in BMJ on the topic; I exchanged emails with him, and he said that the author of the article, Ian Leslie, was “clearly not interested” in hearing a contrary opinion.
  • The NCAA isn’t just a group of corporate fat cats and millionaire coaches profiting off the unpaid physical labor of college athletes; it’s a giant wealth transfer from black to white.
  • Amy Schumer’s “plus-sized is okay but I am not plus-sized” imbroglio got thinkpieced to death this week … but the A/V Club did do the subject justice by pointing out the damage of labeling women at all. Men don’t really face this – there’s “big and tall,” but hell, tall is considered good for men. (I am not tall; I’m 5’6″, very short for an adult American male, and trust me, I’ve long heard how this is not a good thing.) Why do women have to be plus-sized or minus-sized or whatever-the-fuck-sized at all?
  • From the “look at this idiot” department: A vaccine-denier mom gave her newborn whooping cough. She regrets being an idiot now, apparently. If you think vaccines are not safe, you are wrong, and should listen to every reputable scientist and doctor in the world who says to vaccinate your kids.
  • Eephus is a new sports-themed online magazine (do I even have to say “online” any more?) and one of its first pieces was by my friend Will Leitch, who waxes nostalgic over baseball boardgames.
  • A great interview with culinary icon Alton Brown from Bitter Southerner.
  • A state senator in Virginia wants Beloved out of public schools because it’s “smut,”, and he told a high school English teacher that he knew better than she did. Read his emails to see his ignorance at work, as he calls the greatest American novel of the last 40 years “vile,” “smut,” and “moral sewage.”
  • Facebook now has a tool to report users who might be about to harm themselves and try to get them help.
  • All this talk about the various laws raising the minimum wage to $15/hour led me to this takedown of a WaPo editorial criticizing the laws, in which the author contends (among other things) that the rise in wages for the lowest income bracket will lead to greater increases in demand, because when you have very little money, you spend each additional dollar you get.
  • This JAMA editorial argues that we may be reaching the financial limits of pharmaceutical innovation. I think he’s half right, in that we are approaching that limit, but do not believe it will stop or even slow innovation, but must drive new price models. A fundamental problem of health care is that our demand for services that will improve, extend, or save our lives is essentially inelastic: You can raise the price and we’ll still want as much, and eventually we will simply pay everything we have if it means continuing to live.
  • The chefs at Nashville’s wonderful izakaya and ramen joint Two Ten Jack read and respond to negative reviews in this funny 90-second video. I brought a group of writers to TTJ in December (Jess Benefield came out to chat while we were there) and had an unbelievable and very reasonably priced meal.

The Unfinished Game.

I’m still playing a bit of catchup on stuff I read during March (and just finished Joe Haldeman’s The Forever War over lunch today), but one title I definitely want to bring to everyone’s attention is the delightful, short book by mathematician (and NPR’s “Math Guy”) Keith Devlin called The Unfinished Game, which explains how one specific letter in the correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat opened the door to the world of probability and everything that this branch of mathematics makes possible.

The unfinished game of the book’s title was based on a common, popular controversy of the time surrounding games of chance, which were largely seen as incalculable – our modern, simple way of calculating odds of things like throws of the dice just did not exist at the time. Pascal and Fermat discussed the question of how to divide winnings in a game of two or more players where the players choose to abandon the game before any one player has won the requisite number of matches. (So, for example, they’re playing a best-of-five, but the players quit after three rounds, with one player having won two times and the other one.) The controversy in question will seem silly to any modern reader who’s taken even a few weeks of probability theory in high school math, but Devlin is deft enough to explain the problem in 1600s terms, so that the logical confusion of the era is clear on the page.

The confusion stemmed from the misunderstanding about the frequencies of subsequent events, given that the game would not always be played to its conclusion: You may say up front you’re going to play a best of seven, but you do not always need to play seven matches to determine a winner. If you quit after three games, in the situation I outlined above, it is possible that you would have needed just one more match to determine a winner, and it is possible that you would have needed two more matches. Pascal’s letter to Fermat proposed a method of determining how to split the winnings in such an unfinished game; the letter was the start of modern probability theory, and the problem is now known as the problem of points. (You can read the entire surviving correspondence on the University of York’s website; it also includes their conversations on prime numbers, including Fermat’s surprising error in claiming that all numbers of the form 2(2n)+1, which is only true for 0 ≤ n ≤ 4. Those five numbers are now called Fermat primes; Euler later showed Fermat’s hypothesis was wrong, and 2(25)+1 = 4294967297, which is composite.)

Fermat realized you must count all of the potential solutions, even ones that would not occur because they involved playing the fifth game when it was made unnecessary by the first player winning the fourth match and taking the entire set, so to speak. (The problem they discussed was slightly more involved.) Pascal took Fermat’s tabular solution, a brute-force method of counting out all possible outcomes, and made it generalizable to all cases with a formula that works for any number of players and rounds. This also contributed to Pascal’s work on what we now call Pascal’s triangle, and created what statisticians and economists now refer to as “expectation value” – the amount of money you can expect to win on a specific bet given the odds and payout of each outcome.

Devlin goes about as far as you can when your subject is a single letter, with entertaining diversions into the lives of Pascal and Fermat (who corresponded yet never met) and tangents like Pascal’s wager. At heart, the 166-page book is about probability theory, and Devlin makes the subject accessible to any potential reader, even ones who haven’t gone beyond algebra in school. Given how much of our lives – things like insurance, financial markets, and sports betting, to say nothing of the probabilistic foundations of quantum theory – are possible because of probability theory, The Unfinished Game should probably be required reading for any high school student.

Next up: I just started Eimear McBride’s A Girl is a Half-Formed Thing, winner of the 2014 Baileys Women’s Prize for Fiction.

Klawchat 4/7/16.

Klaw: Let a sucker slide once, then I break his neck. Klawchat.

Jack: I saw an article that you and some Phillies brass were at the Groome start. What is the general protocol for you interacting with team employees at games? I assume it varies based on how well you know each other, but is the range from “don’t even acknowledge it’s each other’s presence” to “it’s like running into old friends”?
Klaw: I know so many of these guys that it’s more like the latter. I look forward to games like that because I’ll see so many friends there.

James: How would you compare Groome to Allard and Aiken?
Klaw: Better than Allard – more physical, more present velocity, less effort. Aiken was more advanced, showing three (arguably four) pitches and better command, but bear in mind Tuesday was not a full effort outing.

John: Does Groome being a “hometown kid” have any effect on whether the phillies should select him or not? Would the added pressure have any effect on the decision?
Klaw: No. This is media bullshit we get almost every year. Teams are generally not that stupid. You take the best player, not the best player in your backyard.

Eric: Keith, have you ever seen a 95mph slider before? Thor looks even better than advertised in your opinion who is the first pitcher the Mets lock up long term or do you think they will wait until they’re all eligible for free agency
Klaw: No and I’m guessing that was a cutter (or a bad gun reading). Thor is the one guy of their aces I’d most want to lock up – I think he offers the best potential for durability. [Post-chat edit: sounds like pitch f/x had that velocity and Syndergaard called it a slider. I think it would be the hardest slider in MLB history.]

Drew: Brandon Finnegan looked good with his first start and I understand it was vs. the Phillies. What are your thoughts on a potential mid rotation starter ?
Klaw: I see no chance of that. Reliever all the way.

Lyle: So, Drew Jackson. Couple of things: 1) Understand that Mariners fans had so little in the minors to be even hopeful about that we want him to be someone who exceeds his projections, and 2) You’re the prospect guy so I’m sure that you’re much more likely to be right about his projection than you are to be wrong. Having said all that, what kind of performance would Jackson need to have in the Cal League (skipping the MWL) in order for you to bump him up a level or two (say, from org guy to AAAA guy to fringe regular)?
Klaw: Bakersfield is a good place to hit (as is the league in general) so I don’t pay much attention to college products’ stats there. In Jackson’s case, he really wasn’t much of a hitter in college, so making more contact and showing some plate discipline would be some progress, I suppose. But I’d say wait till AA.

David: I know previously you said the Phillies were not interested in a HS pitcher at #1, but with Groome’s ability and polish, and the relative disappointment of the college crop, is Groome now the odds on favorite at #1?
Klaw: No. There is no “odds on favorite” this year. There’s no Harper or Strasburg or even Cole. I do think Groome is the best prospect in the class now, having talked to a lot of folks about how Ray has looked this year, but that doesn’t make him the odds-on anything.

David: No question, just wanted to say you were great on TV and enjoyed hearing your insight during the broadcast.
Klaw: Thank you – it was fun to do it and the guys (Boog, Sut, Doug) all made it easy for me.

Bill: Do you have a suggested starting place for P.G. Wodehouse? He shows up on your top books list, but when I was looking for his books recently there seem to be a bunch, including random short story collections that have a bunch of overlap, and no clear place to start.
Klaw: I started with the collection Enter Jeeves, which was three books in one, two of short stories and one novel.

Dave: Do you have The Food Lab in your cookbook arsenal? I was a slow cooker carnitas guy also until I tried the crispy skin pork shoulder recipe, it’s a showstopper. Great book
Klaw: I do – yes, great book.

Droopydave: Are the the benefits of 19 and 20 year old’s playing in major colleges with diet and nutrition programs vs those eating fast food playing in lower levels of the minors valued by organizations? Or has this been corrected?
Klaw: You think teams don’t have diet and nutrition programs? Players are better off in pro ball, no matter what colleges try to tell you.

Justin: So my took my 17 month old to get his 2nd round of flu shot’s 2 months ago. The kid was literally never sick, he’d only been to the doctor only for his vaccines. Since then, we’ve been over a dozen times…reoccuring wheezing, cough, eczema, runny nose, the whole atroph march and it never ends . Of course its not the flu shot, right? Others have told me similar stories and my wife is becoming convinced. I stand firm but admit I’m starting to question it. Any suggested reading materials? Man, having kids sucks sometimes.
Klaw: It’s not the flu shot. But man does that sound like an allergic reaction to something (I am, of course, not a doctor). I hope your son feels better soon.

Frank: Can we expect this type of performance moving forward from Nicasio
Klaw: No. It’s one start – and he still hasn’t shown a third pitch.

Eric: I saw that the Blue Jays manager defended himself with “my wife, daughters, etc. didn’t have a problem with it”. Isn’t that the “I have a lot of African-American friends” defense?
Klaw: Yes, it is. Plenty of people, women and men, did have a problem with it. Regardless of his motivation, he was wrong to say it, and MLB should act on that.

Michael: Whenever a friend or family member uses the r word, I generally tell him/her that it’s inappropriate. On more than one occasion, they have responded that people like me are indirectly responsible for the rise of Trump and the anti-PC crowd. You commonly correct people on Twitter and in chats. Do you agree with this sentiment? Do you think it’s possible you’re actually accomplishing the opposite of what you’re intending, and creating something far worse?
Klaw: I believe sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Chris P: What is up with Mariners prospects…Alex Jackson going back to extended spring?!?!
Klaw: Yep. Not a great situation, but it’s not like he’s performed near expectations yet.

addoeh: What would your costume if you won John Oliver’s commoner in the premium seats at Yankee Stadium contest?
Klaw: Foppish dandy: http://www.theonion.com/article/foppish-dandy-disregards-local-constabulary-1115

Jeff: Klaw, how many teams and players have you totally changed your mind on since Opening Day based on their performance? Thanks!
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Michael: It seems like some people were surprised Alford will start in Dunedin. Do you think they should have challenged him at AA or better to take your time with a guy who hasn’t played much pro ball?
Klaw: I think he’ll get to AA soon enough, maybe once it warms up … but didn’t they do a bunch of strange things with assignments there? Why was Sean Reid-Foley demoted to low-A?

Dan: Hey Keith, nice seeing you during the game last night! What did you thank about Nola? The obvious caveat about a weak lineup applies, but he seemed to locate well and worked efficiently. He was obviously getting tired in his last inning when he fell behind 3-0 to the first two hitters but he came back to strike both of them out. As I Phillies fan, it was a fun game to watch (for the first eight innings).
Klaw: Looked great. Curveball is definitely better than it was a year ago. Still see a mid-rotation guy long-term, league-average to above league-average, probably someone you hope is your third-best starter when you’re contending.

Dan: Anfrenee Grier was somewhat heralded in HS as talented but raw. He seems to have improved his draft stock, but still seems quite raw. Does he project as an everyday player given his developmental path to date? Much thanks.
Klaw: Projects as an above-average regular with unusual upside for a college guy between his tools and his youth (I think he’s 20.7 on draft day?).

“Lighten Up” Guy: You chat like a girl
Klaw: Thoughtfully?

Michael: Re your comments on Henry Ford, where would you draw the line with historical figures? Do T.S. Eliot, Robert E. Lee, Dr. Seuss, Woodrow Wilson, and Thomas Jefferson, for instance, always need a disclaimer, or can we celebrate them for what they were good at (literary, political, or military genius) and quietly leave the rest alone?
Klaw: Ford bought a newspaper just so he could spread his hate of Jews, reprinted the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, and accepted an award from the Nazi government. He was beyond the pale.

Joe: I know all teams want a piece of opening day, so the schedule makers can’t just stick with warm weather cities for the first two weeks. But shouldn’t all the games scheduled for cold weather cities at least be in-division games? That way, any weather problems don’t force an immediate doubleheader or losing a mutual off day later in the season. Seems like bad scheduling to have New York host Houston instead of Toronto, for example.
Klaw: Having two dome teams play each other was pretty stupid too.

Tom: Heaney just went on the DL with forearm tightness. A couple of years ago, Skaggs went on the DL with forearm tightness. This is an obvious place to jump to conclusions, right?
Klaw: There is no such thing as good forearm tightness, flexor strain, or biceps tendinitis.

BD: I’m not one for Spring Training and 1st week stats either, but when there is a dramatic physical change, I wonder. Does Wilson Ramos getting LASIK mean anything? He looks a lot better (so far)
Klaw: I believe physical changes like you describe have real, lasting effects that we should be aware of, but that we still need a few weeks of data at the absolute minimum before we can say “yep, he’s better.”

Tom: I’m sort of confused on the whole Joey Bats controversy. People were saying the Utley Rule or something was enforced, but has it ever been legal to slide into second and grab the defender’s leg as you go by?
Klaw: MLB seems to have said the Utley rule covered it, but I agree with you that at least one and probably two rules already on the books made that play illegal. Also, Bautista was out; why the hell should he be allowed to affect anything on the field at that point?

John: Genuinely interested, not trolling. Why was it okay for you to poke fun at Ron Paul’s/Bobby Valentine’s appearance, but I presume you would never do that with women?
Klaw: Clearly trolling, since I didn’t poke fun – I just pointed out a resemblance – and you’re basing this stupid question on a stupid presumption of what I would do in a hypothetical situation. Think critically for a second.

MJ: Cano is off to a great start, carrying over from his second half and big spring. Have you seen any kind of mechanical adjustment that has led to his hot play since last summer or is he just finally healthy?
Klaw: I think he’s finally healthy. Did he need a mechanical adjustment? I don’t know of anything from last year (which could be my own ignorance) that would point to that.

Vance: What’s your take on that good, uhm, parable in Colorado right now? Has that yarn spinner learned to hit? I know SSS, but it’s still interesting.
Klaw: I said on the BBTN podcast this morning that he is probably just an average regular, but he could easily be better than Reyes, who can’t play shortstop any more anyway, so if the hot start means Anecdote keeps the job all year, so much the better for the Rockies.

Finch: What would you need to see from Jurickson Profar to consider this season a success?
Klaw: Just health. I don’t doubt he’ll hit and, if the arm is indeed fully recovered, field well.

Wellington: Are there any HS guys from Northern California, other than Manning that could go within the first 2 days of the draft?
Klaw: He’s the only one on my list right now; among college guys, there’s Daulton Jeffries at Cal (missed last start with a calf injury) and Lucas Erceg at Menlo College, an NAIA school. Erceg “left” Cal in the fall – there are various rumors about why, none of which seems very favorable to the player – and is putting up Nintendo numbers at the smaller program.

Andrew: What would you do re Rusney Castillo if it were up to you? It seems to me like
Klaw: Sorry you got cut off, but I think they’re doing the right thing with him at the moment.

Jack: Which draft prospect’s stock has fallen/risen the most since the beginning of the season?
Klaw: Hard to slip more than Alec Hansen, who was a 1-1 candidate but has been bad and hurt. Rising could be Grier or possibly Joey Wentz, HS lefty near KC (same town as Pint but they don’t face each other), gone from just a good arm to clear first-rounder.

Vance: In the time since Trout was drafted have teams become better at scouting cold weather city players?
Klaw: That’s unfair to teams scouting that year – it was miserable in the northeast, tons of rain, so he didn’t play often and was just harder to see. He also was not an 80 runner in high school.

Tim: Have you ever thought about doing a later chat, maybe 8 or 9 PM EST? I can’t be the only one secretly doing this at work…
Klaw: If I’m home at that hour, I’m with my family, and if I’m not home, I’m probably at a game.

BD: Maryland starter Mike Sharwyn bumped from Friday to Sunday… why the regression this year, and can he fix it?
Klaw: Think he’s a reliever anyway. Might be better off in that role now.

Keith: Re: Thor and his slider – definitely had slider movement around 92-95. Still, I don’t remember seeing a starter like Noah pretty much ever – 100ish 4seam, mean 2seam/sinker at 95+, solid change, and good breaking stuff – sky the limit? The only guy who compares in recent memory is Strasburg, but Thor seems to have a better temperament and composure on the mound.
Klaw: Very different personalities, and Thor does it easier anyway. One of the best examples I can remember of a guy who was nearly all projection in high school and has hit just about every milestone or leaped every developmental hurdle you could think of. Every year, something has gotten better. I also wonder if that gradual improvement is part of why he’s stayed healthy, as opposed to the Strasburg or Zumaya types who showed up after one offseason with 10 extra mph.

Matt: Scott Schebler a viable platoon OF long term? how would you rate the power/speed tools? 55 each potentially?
Klaw: Think he’s more of a 4A guy.

Michael: Rome’s rotation by May could be Soroka, Fried, Allard, Touki, and Sanchez……..any chance you’ll be catching some games down here potentially?? Also got Riley, Acuna and Herbert among the position players
Klaw: Great team but not likely I’ll come there – they’ll come up north to Delmarva or Lakewood.

Andrew: Just to finish my Castillo thought – is he a 4th/5th OF now? Did the Red Sox just whiff and spend $72 million on a bench player, or is there more there?
Klaw: There was always some fourth OF risk – great defender but it seemed like no one was sold on the bat, or the power, or both. And at his age, can you hope for more development if he goes to AAA?

Terrance: Hey Klaw, I know it’s not your fault but ESPN giving Greg Hardy that softball interview with Adam Schefter, and Schefter subsequently going around referring to Hardy as a “changed man” may be my last straw with the Worldwide Leader, as far as giving them my Insider money. I’ll still follow your personal website, of course.
Klaw: I personally do not believe men who beat women can change. And there’s some psychological research that says rapists can’t change. So I don’t know why we did that.

Carla: Did the BJ’s blow it by trading Thor?
Klaw: Nice pun. In hindsight, yes, I think so.

Brian: You said a few weeks ago that Austin Riley has slider bat speed. What does that mean for him going forward? Does it take away his chance of being an impact guy, or is it still doable with slider bat speed? Thanks.
Klaw: Slider bat speed means a guy who can’t catch up to average or better fastballs without cheating (starting his bat early). It’s not a good thing. I had heard that on Riley last year, and it’s what I saw in March. Let’s see how it plays out as he’s facing some better velocity in low-A this year.

Joe: When will you be updating the draft rankings? Thanks
Klaw: Next week. Eric and I have been working on them the last few days.

Bill: Aaron Sanchez looked awesome in his first start of the year. Got several whiffs (on some change-ups, too!). Have you had a chance to watch any of his start? No walks…reasons to be encouraged?
Klaw: Again, just one outing. Strikes are good, though.

Grant from Chicago: I noticed Cease, de la Cruz, Wilson and Hudson are still in XST. Thoughts on why they haven’t been assigned to South Bend?
Klaw: Why would they be? Cease isn’t even two years back from TJ and barely pitched last year. Hudson might stay in short-season all year. Wilson could too.

Mike: Last week you talked about how the college game can be very boring as the coaches micromanage. How does that affect how you scout the players? Is it difficult when players are constantly told to sac bunt or take pitches?
Klaw: Well it’s really hard to scout a hitter when the idiot coach bats him third and has him bunt in the first inning.

Jay: In the past you’ve talked about Dom Smith’s 70 throwing arm at 1B. Could you talk about the value of, say, an 80 arm at 1B versus a 50 arm there, over the course of a season? Never know how to weigh that. Thanks!
Klaw: It’s a small benefit but plays like the 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 double play become easier, or even the 3-5 play too. I’d say I never need my first baseman to have a plus arm, but it’s nice if he does.

Joe: If the Nats are thinking about Giolito as a second half asset would it make more sense to start him in AAA or does it not really matter?
Klaw: Don’t think it matters.

Drew: I know it’s early… but any insight on the Reds draft pick at #2 ? Do you see Corey Ray or Nick Senzel worthy of the pick.. maybe Rutherford ?
Klaw: Think those guys are all in their mix, plus Groome, Pint, maybe Delvin Perez. Puk is a wild card; if he misses any time (he came out on Sunday after 11 pitches due to back spasms) I have to think he slides.

Doug: Who are the top players for the 2017 draft?
Klaw: I don’t know much about the HS class but the college crop includes Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vanderbilt and Alex Faedo at Florida.

Devon Rosene: Hi, Keith. I suffer from severe anxiety and depression and your candidness on the subject has been very inspiring. Thank you for having the courage to be generous with your personal history.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and I hope you find treatment options that help you.

Justin: You wrote that the 4 rookies on the Reds rotation have a ton of downside and I assume that’s because they are inexperienced. But do you see any top of the rotation guys in there for the future?
Klaw: That was for this year, and it was inexperience, reliever risk (Finnegan), command/control risk (Stephenson especially), etc. Stephenson has ace stuff, highest upside of these arms.

Michael: If you were in charge of the Jays, what kind of punishment would you give Gibbons? Assume you didn’t know this side of him or inherited him.
Klaw: I think it has to come from MLB and will. A large fine and a few days off would make it clear to other managers to watch their mouths. Then again, I thought Ausmus should have been sacked for making light of domestic abuse, and he’s still there.

Ty: After thinking Swanson would beat Albies to Atlanta I had a hard time thinking he’d be the SS of the future. Now, that Albies is ahead I think he will be the new SS. Disagree?
Klaw: Disagree. I think you’re reading too much into the assignments.

Mike: Do you plan on seeing Ian Anderson once the weather warms up in the Northeast?
Klaw: Yes, soon. He was snowed out yesterday though.

Jacob: Just an interested Jays fan. What did you think of Ricky Romero at the time he was drafted? Pretty sure you preferred Tulo, but did you still like Romero? How about David Purcey?
Klaw: Preferred Tulo. Thought Romero was lower-upside, mid-rotation maybe, with usual risk of any pitching prospect, while I thought Tulo was a star. I did not see Purcey pitch that spring (I saw the guys I just mentioned) but was concerned about his walk rates and that scouts were saying he was basically a two pitch guy.

Greg: Keith, there’s another baseball site that has Senzel as the #2 overall draft prospect. Are you anywhere near on board with that? It seems crazy for a guy with limited game power and defensive questions.
Klaw: That’s Baseball America. I don’t agree and we won’t have him near that high. I’m not saying they’re wrong or we’re right, but I share your concerns.

Keith: I’ve seen scouts rate Dom Smith’s arm as 50-55. I get that scouting is pretty subjective, but what is it that accounts for such large disparity between scouting opinions on something that should be pretty straightforward – arm strength, running, etc?
Klaw: You’ve seen scouts do that? Which scouts are sharing their reports with you?

wickethewok: Now that Gregory Polanco has signed an extension, whose contract is more valuable to the Pirates going forward between Polanco and Marte?
Klaw: I think Polanco’s going to end up the better player because I think he has a better approach at the plate and better overall feel for the game. As with everything else here, it’s just my opinion. If you want to argue Marte will be the more valuable player, I’ll listen.

Michael: Should the Yankees consider trading Gary Sanchez? With McCann under contract for a little while longer, it could become a misuse of resources, no?
Klaw: McCann has hit .232/.303/.421 as a Yankee. The misuse of resources might be playing him over Sanchez in 2017.

Ben: When scouting a pitcher, do you factor in at all how good they are themselves at the plate?
Klaw: Mostly no. But it’s one sign of athleticism, so that counts by proxy.

JR: In general, how many years does it take to evaluate how well a team did in any particular draft? 3? 5? More?
Klaw: I think five years is fair. Sometimes you know sooner that a draft was a disaster, because of injuries or releases, but think of how long it took for Devon Mesoraco to become any sort of prospect, let alone a big leaguer.

Nik: You’ve always been pretty down on Maikel Franco, but everyone is predicting a major breakout – are you getting on that train?
Klaw: That’s totally inaccurate – I have not “always been pretty down” on him; I rated him in the top 100 once, had him as a breakout prospect the year before, and still had him second or third in the system last year. I don’t think he has a very good approach at the plate, but as I tweeted last night, he’s crazy strong, and he can drive a lot of pitches most hitters can’t keep fair. I think he’ll be a good player, an above-average regular, but I am not predicting a major breakout.

Tom: You picked the Angels to finish 4th. Why the optimism?
Klaw: Average depth. Terrible top ten.

David: Do you think Manny Margot gets more than a cup of coffee with the Padres this year? What’s his upside?
Klaw: At this rate he’ll be their cleanup hitter by Tuesday.

Jacob: I remember a scout in Lansing saying he couldn’t believe Syndergaard signed for only $600k out of high school. Was he a guy who just wanted to sign or was he somewhat unheralded in high school?
Klaw: Totally unheralded. Only 4-5 teams were really on him, and only two were on him where the Jays took him. He was 88-92 to start his senior year and had no breaking ball. He also had some local attorneys rather than major agents as advisers, which may have hurt him in terms of getting the word out.

Andy: My issue with the Caucasians shirt is that I’ve seen some people say, “Well I’m not offended by that and I’m white, so clearly no one should be offended by the Wahoo image.” I almost wish it were more offensive.
Klaw: That’s because those people are stupid. The Caucasians shirt isn’t offensive; it’s jarring because we never see white people objectified like that. If you saw it, you reacted to it, because it’s so rare.

Adam: Do you think Mallex will be comparable or better than Inciarte?
Klaw: Better runner but much less juice.

Greg: Given that this draft is more depth than star power, does it make sense for teams up top to try cutting under slot deals with their first pick and load up on quantity, since there isn’t a ton of quality?
Klaw: The CBA all but mandates that unless you’re getting a Strasburg/Harper type. Everyone up top expects to sign their player for the slot figure of the subsequent pick, a difference that in the top few picks is near a million dollars of savings.

John: What position would you project Jeimer Candelario to play in the bigs if he were to be traded from the Cubs? How close would he be to the MLB if he wasn’t blocked by a star like Kris Bryant?
Klaw: Left field.

Mark: After a ho-hum first two years, Cavan Biggio looks to have turned the corner. Where does he go in the draft ?
Klaw: I think fourth-fifth rounds, maybe third because he’s famous, but he’s not actually having that great a year (in a bad conference) and he’s not very tooled up.

cj: Do you think the braves would take a chance on blake rutherford
Klaw: I expect him to be on their short list. He might be the best pure hit tool in the class.

JG: Is this Rickard kid for real?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth OF and didn’t think so when he was in Tampa’s system.

Eric: At what point in the draft do you believe it is no longer to early to select a pitcher that will, in all likelihood, end up as a reliever (even a high-caliber reliever)?
Klaw: Depends a little on the draft, but I would not do this in the first round.

Ryan: Can Albert Almora be the Cubs everyday CF next year or will he not hit enough?
Klaw: Leaning towards yes.

addoeh: If you had a chance to go back in time and watch one former prospect in action, who would it be?
Klaw: I’d want to go back to see some of the Negro League stars like Cool Papa Bell.

JR: I’m still in awe that you read 100+ books in 2015. I average approximately 36 books/year and have tried to bump that up this year. Despite my best efforts, I’m still only on pace for around 50 books. Be honest, did you use PEDs to help your reading performance in 2015 (and don’t claim any TUE bullshit)?
Klaw: Caffeine!

Mike: Do you think this is the year Dominic Smith shows his power potential and what do you think of Rosario staying in the Florida State League?
Klaw: I expect more power from Smith now that he’s in a neutral environment, and the Mets do too. I imagine Rosario moves north in a month or so. He shouldn’t spend long in St. Lucie as I don’t think that park does him any favors either.

Vance: Yes there was bad weather with Trout, but that happens many years, so how do teams compensate for that?
Klaw: That year was exceptionally bad. I’ve certainly never seen a prospect lose as many games to weather as he did.

Mike: Do you buy that age questions regarding HS players ie. Rutherford turning 19 before the Draft?
Klaw: I think it’s a variable to consider, but not a reason to ignore a prospect with ability, nor is exceptional youth a reason to elevate a player. Delvin Perez will be 17.5 on draft day, but I rate him very highly because he probably has the best overall tools package in the draft (along with questions about his maturity).

Greg: With Rutherford being 19, does that ever equate to a guy moving faster through the minor leagues?
Klaw: If you think Rutherford is as advanced as a 19-year-old HS hitter should be, someone who’d be ready to go out to the Midwest League next year at about 20 and who would finish 2018 in double-A (so three levels total across two full seasons), then he’ll be right on schedule and you should just take him.

Jim: Keith, In New York we are going to a $15 minimum wage. can you help me understand how this is a good thing and not something that will hurt small businesses and change the service industry?
Klaw: “In recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.” http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

Threat Level Midnight: With my amateur scouting eye and 4 innings of watching him pitch, I feel like Stephenson lacks a putaway pitch. Was this a comment about him as a prospect?
Klaw: He’s not locating well today. The CB and change have both flashed plus in the minors, so I think the putaway pitch would be there if he had any command today. Of course this game just turned into a dumpster fire so who knows what happens next.

Michael Scarn: With a year of retrospect, what do you think the Athletics were thinking with the Butler contract?
Klaw: Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now.

Christian: Do you think teams should start to open facilities in Europe the same way they do in the DR and South America to both grow the game and get a chance at untapped talent that isn’t as scouted as often? Thank you again.
Klaw: MLB has facilities they run there, and I don’t think teams would try to compete on a macro level with MLB. The facilities are necessary in the DR because they house players who might be so poor that they don’t have enough to eat or a proper bed in which to sleep. That’s not necessary in most of Europe, although it could become appealing to do that in a place like Uganda, where baseball has started to catch on and we might start to see players sign pro contracts soon.

James: Do you think the Brewers would go arm or bat at #5? Thanks!
Klaw: Best player available.

Jon: What’s a good book to give to a 12 year old. Any literature that is accessible for that age?
Klaw: Depends on what kind of reader s/he is but the Harry Potter books would certainly work, as would Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series and Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle series – all stuff I’ve read with my daughter.

Jay: Is there anyone in the Giants system that you would project as a #1/#2 type starter?
Klaw: No, but you could make an argument for Bickford, who will show that kind of fastball/slider. I don’t love the arm action and I know there were questions about his back and shoulder prior to the draft.

Adam: Best Slider? Harvey, Thor, Fernandez or Archer? I think thats the best 4 anyway
Klaw: Sale and Kershaw are standing on your porch right now and would like a word.

PhillyJake: Do you know of a team not drafting the best player available?
Klaw: Teams do it sometimes, but it’s less and less common because it never works out and often gets you fired.

Ridley Kemp: Who do you think has a chance to be MLB’s “Leicester City,” a totally out of the blue worst to first story? P.S. Yes, I am only asking this question to mention my beloved Foxes, why do you ask?
Klaw: Of the six last-place teams from last year, the only ones I could see reaching the playoffs would be the Tigers and Red Sox, and in Boston’s case, it wouldn’t be totally out of the blue at all.

Steve: If Seth Beer had stayed in HS, would he have gone 1.1 ?
Klaw: I don’t think so. He will be 19.75 on draft day this year and scouts didn’t see his hit tool the way they see Rutherford’s. But it turns out he’s pretty good at the whole hitting thing.

Will: Have you read Sam Hinkle’s 13 page resignation letter?
Klaw: Don’t know who that is. Sounds like you made the name up.

Christian: If you had to project, do you think expansion happens within the next ten years? I know their are a few markets that could support a team and baseball is always looking to make more money. Thank you again.
Klaw: Yes, for the reasons you outlined. But I don’t think MLB has any real desire or incentive to expand outside the US right now.

Marshall: The only reason I can see a team not drafting “BPA” is if they are targeting a player that is going to fall because of contract demands and want to use some of their salary allocation on him. But that scenario hasn’t seemed to happen in real world very frequently.
Klaw: That’s a good point that I really should have mentioned. Sometimes you will pass on BPA because he wants more than slot, and you can do better by taking the second (or maybe third) guy on your board and then getting an overslot guy later. I apologize for not putting that into my earlier answer because it has happened a couple of times.

Andy: Re: Relievers in the 1st round, you and I were more valuable major league players than Matt Anderson.
Klaw: I truly cannot see that ever happening again.

Tommy Moore: What are your thoughts on how showcases have become the main way for kids to be seen by colleges and scouts? Does the air it out for 2 innings mentality leaD to pitcher injuries, as some have speculated? Do pitchers not learn to handle adversity when no scores are kept and innings are usually rolled after 6 batters?
Klaw: There are benefits – much better competition is the main one – but yeah, air it out for an inning or two because you see 50 guns there certainly isn’t helping anyone’s health.

Goldenface: You said in your team projected standings article that the Angels have “one of the 10 best starters in the league”. Was this a misprint, or do you believe that Garrett Richards is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball?
Klaw: In the league. Not in baseball. There are two leagues. Have been for a while now.

Scott: Do you think the US as a whole has gotten to the point where the majority of citizens are socially progressive? As disheartening as these BS “Religious Freedom” bills are, the immediate backlash to it is encouraging, and stronger than it would have been even 10 years ago.
Klaw: I think there’s a large geographic divide, where 2/3 of the country is looking at the other 1/3 like they’re crazy. (I know there are dissenters to these bills in the south and supporters in the north and west too.) I do think the backlash and the economic cost of legislated bigotry are going to change some laws even if they don’t change hearts and minds. And if you’re with a company looking to relocate jobs from North Carolina or Mississippi or any other hate-states, Delaware has low taxes and equal protection for LGBT people!

Grant: You said that the Cubs aren’t extremely well built for October, but that they have the assets to add another SP for the playoffs. Is Arrieta-Lester-Lackey really not a good enough playoff 1-3?
Klaw: You think lackey is better than I do, i infer.

Andy: Does anyone know if the Astros had Correa as BPA or if he was actually #2 or 3 on the board? I mean that was seen as a non-BPA pick at the time.
Klaw: Nah, I had him slightly behind Buxton, and I think I said at the time it was a matter of opinion. I believe they had both guys in their mix till the last few minutes, but that said, I know they were on Correa for a while.

Rob: Isn’t drafting the best available player only relevant in the first half of the first round. Is there much difference between the 19th and 20th picks, so if one is a pitcher and one is a position player and a team needs to stock up on pitching, won’t they go for the pitcher?
Klaw: No, that’s a terrible strategy. If you think the pitcher is better, sure, take him, but if you think the hitter is better, don’t take the pitcher because you think you need pitching more. The biggest problem with doing that is that predicting what you’ll need 3-5 years down the road is really hard.

Ryan: I hated the Cubs trade for Matt Garza at the time, it was more about a GM trying not to get fired instead of improving the overall health of the system. In retrospect it looks terrible now, Archer is a bonafide ace and the Cubs ended up getting three releivers for him. Why do GMs make trades that even normal fans know will not work out?
Klaw: Imagine how much worse it would look if Hak-Ju Lee hadn’t blown out his ankle and had become at least some kind of big leaguer.

Joe: How much does the AJ Pollock injury hurt the Dbacks going forward this year? Its hard for me to believe that they have depth to make the postseason unless a bunch of unexpected players break out this season.
Klaw: I would guess it costs them three wins if not more in the standings. Brutal timing for a brutal loss.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for reading, for your questions here, and for watching the game last night. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday next week to do this again. Look for me on ESPNU tonight around 7:15 pm ET talking draft stuff on College Baseball Live.

March 2016 music update.

Well, March turned out to be a tough month for me to blog much, but it was a great month for new music – I originally had over 30 tracks on this playlist and had to fight just to get it down to 23, including the four metal tracks at the end, which is the most I’ve ever included on one of these updates. We even got surprise (to me, at least) tracks from Broods, Royal Blood, and Corinne Bailey Rae. The April list may be a big shorter because I added some songs here that came out last Friday, but I didn’t want to wait another month to put them on a list.

Bob Mould – The End of Things. The former Husker Du lead singer is back with his best solo effort since Black Sheets of Rain, showing some of the same old ferocity that characterized his best power-pop work from two decades ago.

Royal Blood – Where Are You Now. Royal Blood had my #1 song of 2014, “Out of the Black,” and their sound hasn’t changed at all on this single from the critically-panned HBO series Vinyl.

The Kills – Doing It To Death. My list of the top 100 songs of the first decade of the 2000s missed the Kills’ 2008 song “Sour Cherry,” which I didn’t hear for the first time until about a year ago. Anyway, this is the sultry lead single from their album Ash & Ice, due out June 3rd.

The Struts – Kiss This. So my friend Pete, whom I’ve known since the sixth grade, and I have long had a huge overlap in our musical tastes, and we’ve both stayed into music into our dotage, so when we talk we nearly always end up chatting about what we’ve heard lately. I had dinner with Pete and another friend from high school on Friday night, and I mentioned some of the bands on this month’s playlist. When I mentioned the Struts without a ton of enthusiasm, because I like this song but recognize it’s kind of cliched and familiar, he shrugged his shoulders and said, “yeah.” That’s about right.

Bleached – Sour Candy. Bleached, now a trio, seems like they might be on the verge of a breakout with the first two singles from their sophomore album Welcome the Worms, which just came out on Friday. Their sense of melody is more in the front of things on this record, so it’s less hard-edged although still punk-influenced.

The Last Shadow Puppets – Aviation. I’m a little concerned this LSP album isn’t going to live up to expectations, as Alex Turner’s incredible ability to craft sharp hooks hasn’t been evident enough on the first three singles. “Miracle Aligner,” the third, is probably the worst LSP song I’ve heard. This song is somewhere in the middle; the sound is right, but where’s the big catchy melody?

Jake Bugg – Gimme The Love. This seems more like the Jake Bugg of Shangri-La, with clever, fast-sung lyrics and a solid riff, although it doesn’t quite rock like “What Doesn’t Kill You” or hypnotize like “Lighning Bolt.” His third album drops on June 17th.

Broods – Free. This brother/sister duo had one of my favorite albums of 2014, and they’re incorporating more electronic sounds into their sophomore album, expected later this year. This lead single has the electronic drum beat behind Georgia Nott’s voice, but she’s showcased as well as ever here – and that’s key, since her voice is by far their strongest asset.

Corinne Bailey Rae – Stop Where You Are. Bailey Rae is releasing her first album of new music in six years, The Heart Speaks in Whispers, on May 13th, only her third album overall and second since the overdose of her first husband, Jason Rae, in 2008. (She has since remarried.) The Grammy-winning singer’s voice remains in top form on this lead single, so while I’ve never loved the smooth-jazz style of her music, I could listen to her sing all day.

Ten Fé – Elodie. This British duo has released several singles of meditative, dreamy indie-pop that reminds me a bit of The War on Drugs if you dialed down the Dylan a bit.

The Boxer Rebellion – Big Ideas. I like the Boxer Rebellion’s sound, but their music often seems to lack big hooks, outside of their outstanding 2013 single “Diamonds.” This song isn’t quite as catchy but does offer some early U2 nods in the chorus.

HÆLOS – Separate Lives. This London trio’s sound reminds me of the mid/early 1990s trip-hop scene if you crossed it with some of the vocal styles of more classic R&B; the contrast between the sparseness of the verses and the lush textures of the chorus is the song’s greatest appeal even without a single huge hook.

The War On Drugs – Touch of Grey. Speaking of TWOD, the amazing thing about this cover of the Grateful Dead’s only pop hit is that vocalist/guitarist Adam Granduciel manages to make it sound like it was always a War on Drugs song and not something written by a band with its own distinctive sound.

D.A.R.K. – Curvy. This is a bad band name. Comprising Cranberries lead singer Dolores O’Riordan and Smiths bassist Andy Rourke, the group will release its debut album, Science Agrees, in late May, and this lead single sounds less like either of their original acts than it does like a New Order track.

Black Honey – All My Pride. Psychedelic power-pop. I actually know nothing about the group other than this song.

Autolux – Brainwasher. I mean, I knew Autolux was weird, but this song sounds like someone falling down a flight of stairs, and the new album is called Pussy’s Dead, so it’s as if they’re trying to prove they’re even weirder than we thought.

Mourn – Storyteller. Hinds get all the indie love right now, but they’re not the only important band coming out of Barcelona, as Mourn – three girls and one guy, as opposed to Hinds’ all-female roster – have a similar dissonant, jangly, post-punk sound, but with better musicianship. I do like Hinds, but there’s almost a sense that they’re still learning to play and write music, whereas Mourn are much further along as musicians.

White Lung – Kiss Me When I Bleed. This Canadian punk quartet also looks primed for a breakout this year, between the strength of this single and the January release “Hungry.” It’s heavy, fast, and very catchy.

Thrice – Blood On The Sand. That is indeed Riley Breckenridge of the Productive Outs podcast on drums; the post-punk icons’ ninth album is due out later this year.

Anup Sastry – Enigma. A progressive-metal drummer who’s part of Monuments and has also been a member Skyharbor and Intervals, Sastry has released a five-track EP of instrumental “groove metal” or djent or whatever you want to call it. I happen to like this style when it’s not ruined by aggro vocals.

Voivod – Post Society. Voivod hasn’t been the same band for me since the 2005 death of founding guitarist Denis “Piggy” d’Amour, given how critical his songwriting was to their peak albums Nothingface and Dimension Hatross, but this six-minute track from the February EP of the same title offers a strong facsimile of their late ’80s transitional sound as they were moving from straight thrash to the progressive metal sound of Nothingface.

Prong – Cut And Dry. Prong’s 1990 major-label debut, Beg to Differ, remains one of the best metal albums I’ve ever heard, an accessible hybrid of thrash and hardcore styles that brings out the best elements of both genres. They went into a steady decline from there, and their output since their 2003 return has been generally disappointing, but as with the Voivod track above, “Cut and Dry” at least brings back some memories of Prong’s early-1990s peak.

Amon Amarth featuring Doro Pesch – A Dream That Cannot Be. This isn’t actually my favorite track from Amon Amarth’s Viking-themed death metal album Jomsviking, but it’s the only track on the album to feature former Warlock vocalist Doro Pesch.