Disobedience.

Sebastián Lelio directed 2017’s A Fantastic Woman (Una mujer fantástica), which won the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film this spring and was one of my top five films of last year. His follow-up, Disobedience (available free on amazon prime), is his first English-language movie, but continues the theme of focusing on people who are and feel marginalized by their communities, in this case looking at two gay women who have taken different paths since their sexuality was uncovered by the Orthodox Jewish community where they lived. It’s based on the 2006 novel by Naomi Alderman, who later won the Women’s Prize for Fiction for The Power.

Ronit (Rachel Weisz) has returned to the community from exile upon learning that her father, Rav Krushka (Anton Lesser), has died, but it’s clear from her arrival at her childhood friend Dovid’s (Alessandro Nivola) house that she is an outcast. She’s also surprised to see that her other close friend from childhood, Esti (Rachel McAdams), has married Dovid in the interim, and that no one even tried to contact her to tell her of the wedding. Dovid invites Ronit to stay in their guest room, to the chagrin of the more conservative members of the community, and the film slowly reveals the history between the two women – that they had some kind of affair as teenagers, and were discovered by the Rav, which led to Ronit’s hegira to New York, but also led the Rav to push Esti to marry Dovid. The two women find their attraction to each other hasn’t dimmed, but as the flame is rekindled, the inevitable consequences ensue, and Esti and Dovid both find themselves facing difficult choices between the constraints of their insular community and the exercise of the free will that the Rav himself discussed in his final sermon.

Where A Fantastic Woman was dramatic and brisk, moving the lead character from one crisis to the next, Disobedience is subtle and measured, relying on words far more than actions to advance the plot. Esti is the real heart of the film, because she chose to stay when Ronit left, and is now facing the same emotional conflict a second time – but now has the obligations of marriage as well as the understanding of an adult. The script emphasizes the lack of agency for women in such a community, which could just as easily apply to strict Muslim or fundamentalist Christian communities, even before we consider the taboos of homosexuality in such religions. Ronit’s life in New York is defined solely by her career as a photographer; there is no mention of friends or lovers, except when she confesses to Esti that she hasn’t been with another woman since their liaison ended, so while there’s an implication that Ronit is happy because she fled, there’s also a void where the information surrounding someone’s life would be. Yet if Esti has friends, we don’t really see them either; her role is the devoted wife of the presumed heir to the Rav’s place as leader of the congregation, but there is no definition to her independent of that.

The film is anchored by three very strong performances, McAdams’ in particular, as Esti has the central struggle in the film – deciding whether to even give in to her feelings, and then, since she does (in the movie’s one truly intense scene of action rather than dialogue), coping with the consequences and the choices she must make in the wake of those. You could diagram the film’s story as one where the troika’s friendship has devolved to the point that Esti is now pulled equally by one friend on each side – Ronit on the side of freedom, Dovid on the side of tradition or family or obligation. Nivola’s accent is utterly convincing; the American-born actor’s grandmother was a Jewish refugee who fled Germany in the 1930s, but he also studied Hebrew to be able to recite many of the lines in the film and the accuracy of the accent helps establish his character’s hidebound nature. When the denouement arrives, Dovid has as much to do with it as Esti does, with the film’s themes of agency and free will returning after the late Rav’s speech introduced them in the opening scenes. The ending might be a little too pat, making the next steps that come after the big decisions seem easier than they would certainly be, but the path that these characters take from Ronit’s arrival until that moment is a journey to appreciate.

Klawchat 10/25/18.

My latest game review for Paste covers Nyctophobia, a one-versus-many game where the ‘many’ players all wear blackout glasses and must play by touching the board and talking to their teammates.

Keith Law: Like a slow divorce … it’s Klawchat.

Joe: Keith, how bad does the Gausman trade look now the Orioles are very unlikely to be able to sign a top international player with the money they acquired?
Keith Law: As bad as it looked at the time they made the deal. They mishandled Gausman for years, and he’s already looked a little better since they traded him.

Nick: Matt Strahm – your thoughts? Starter? Long RP?
Keith Law: I still think he can start.

addoeh: Top Chef is in Kentucky this season, so expect plenty of bourbon and maybe a burgoo. I know you said you were out last year due to time, but will you come back this season even without the recaps?
Keith Law: I think so, although it’ll depend on how much time I find I have during prospect season + the glut of movies I’m already finding myself facing. It seems like we’re in for an extraordinary three months of very good movies coming out.

Aaron: Absolutely stunned that the reds didn’t choose a retread for their manager position (please don’t be Ausmus, please don’t be Ausmus.) What was his rep as a minor league coach?
Keith Law: Bell has a great reputation from when he managed and his work in player development. I know Giants people had nothing but great things to say about him. I don’t know how he’ll be as a tactical manager, or how well he’ll work with analytics, but I like that he has a lot of relevant experience.

John: Dear Dave Dombrowski, I’m sorry about all the things I said about you when you acquired Eovaldi instead of a bullpen arm. Sincerely, Johnny from Burger King
Keith Law: Turned out Eovaldi was both a floor wax and a bullpen arm!

Rob: Did you get to see Taylor Trammel while in Arizona?
Keith Law: Yep. I saw every position player who played other than a few taxi squad guys (they only play two days a week) and guys who were hurt (Luis Robert, of course).

John: Assuming that the DEA story has been fully debunked, does it make sense that no one ever picked up Hanley Ramirez for the league minimum?
Keith Law: He really has no position; it’s hard to find a spot for a guy like that, basically impossible in the NL.

Bill: I am opening a bookstore/cafe in Worcester, MA soon. Besides good brew, what sorts of things do you enjoy in such places (besides Smart Baseball!)?
Keith Law: The appeal of indie bookstores for me is the curation of the collection. You’re not selling all books, and really, if people want the latest James Patterson tripe, they can get that anywhere. I like to walk into a small bookstore and see that someone has taken the time to choose which books to sell and which books to highlight. Staffers who can talk books with me and help me discover new titles are always a bonus too. Also, donuts.

James: As a Royals fan, when should I realistically expect them to compete again? 2021?
Keith Law: That seems too soon given the state of the system.

Sam: Thoughts on Brodie Van Wagenen being a finalist for the Mets GM job? Do you feel the same way about GM jobs that you do manager jobs with respect to needing some level of experience?
Keith Law: In this case, I do. I don’t think hiring an agent who’s never worked in baseball ops to run the entire baseball ops department makes a lot of sense. The entire Mets GM search process seems badly flawed to me.

wearingwhitesoxinboston: Thoughts on the Baldelli hire? Like Cora and Roberts, he was an average player with bench coaching but no managerial experience. Is this a copy-cat move by the Twins or was he the best option? I am skeptical.
Keith Law: Cora had managerial experience.

Ron: Thoughts o n the Baldelli hire? Sounds analytical, young, has coaching and instructing experience and worked in the front office. Bad hire, good hire or “Meh”? But hasn’t managed.
Keith Law: I discussed this on the BBTN podcast this morning – I know Rocco well, and think very highly of him. He’s very bright and curious. He’s more than just open to new ideas and will work well with the stats guys. I believe he’ll be a good developmental manager. But as you said, he hasn’t managed, and that’s a negative regardless of who the candidate is. I hope he finds someone for his staff who has plenty of in-game experience and can help him learn that part of the game quickly; the track record of no-experience managers is poor.

Moe Mentum: Who starts at 1b for the Phillies on Opening Day 2019 – Santana, Hoskins, or other?
Keith Law: If it’s Hoskins, who’d be the ideal candidate in a vacuum, where does Santana play?

ScottyG: I keep hearing the Cardinals might trade Carlos Martinez this winter – I don’t get it……I know that everybody is available, but what would it take for you to deal him?
Keith Law: I don’t understand trading him now, coming off his worst year, where he didn’t stay healthy and ended up in the bullpen.

Hank: What kind of contribution do you see Eloy JIminez having next season? Is he on the level of Acuna and Soto (and potentially Vlad Jr)?
Keith Law: I think he’s a great prospect but is not on the level of those other three names.

Coarsegold: Thoughts on Manny Ramirez Hall of Fame credentials? B.S. Steroid nonsense aside.
Keith Law: He did test positive for PEDs/masking agents twice, so I’m not sure that’s just “B.S.” His case rests entirely on what you think of his defensive value; his bat clearly belongs. I don’t think he’ll be in my top ten this winter.

barbeach: Thanks for doing this chat. Is there anything that better reflects the Mets incredible dysfunction than the fact they apparently are seriously considering hiring an agent–an agent who reps some of their stars to boot–with no front office experience to run the organization?
Keith Law: Like I said above, it’s clearly a bad process. I get the strong sense they simply wanted to hire Melvin all along – perhaps because Bud Selig recommended him – and the rest was a charade.

Ben: Any chance Price opts out?
Keith Law: With known damage in his elbow? I don’t think so.

Aaron C.: The narrative seems to be that the A’s future is bright…but, is it? Relief pitching effectiveness is notoriously fluid from year-to-year. Question marks at C, 2B and OF. Regression from some A’s in your 2018 top ten team prospects list. And, not one identifiable starting pitcher for 2019 – outside of MAYBE unproven Jesus Luzardo. Weird for a 97-win team, no?
Keith Law: I agree – their system is just middle of the road, and the major league team benefited from a lot of performances that won’t be repeated, plus the likely departure of Lowrie’s production.

Danny: Hey Keith, you’ve previously mentioned that you are not as high on Brandon Nimmo as others because he is ineffective (I don’t remember your exact word choice) vs. lefties (I agreed with you). Though, someone pointed out to me that he actually posted a 112 wRC+ against LHP in 150 PAs this season. Does this change anything for you?
Keith Law: No, because that is a tiny sample, and he still punched out in 1/3 of those PA.

John: With the another team hiring a manager with no managing experience, what do minor league managers need to do to get noticed? Or are most MiLB managers just happy to be still in the game?
Keith Law: I’d really like to know what teams tell minor league managers when they’re hired or re-signed, knowing the old career path there has been largely destroyed.

Nate: Are there any political or social issues on which you take a Conservative position?
Keith Law: That term has no meaning in the abstract. “Conservative” is always relative to the rest of the populace at a specific time.

Dave: Trump is blaming the media for the pipe bombs, not himself, the GOP or anyone in his administration. At this point, does ANYTHING he says surprise you anymore?
Keith Law: No. Watching the same MAGA chuds who pushed pizzagate decry the #MAGABomber hashtag was unbefuckinglievable, though.

Brian: In your Fall League write ups you did not mention anything regarding Royals players participating. A case of nothing new to report or just not performing well enough to elicit a comment?
Keith Law: Khalil Lee didn’t look very good, and otherwise they didn’t send much in the way of prospects, since Matias was hurt, and their other top prospects are all still 19 years old or were just drafted.

Ben: Roberts says he plans to use Urias as a SP next year. Is this feasible to you?
Keith Law: That’s a question for the team doctor and training staff. I can only look at the history of pitchers who’ve had that surgery, which is very poor, but know no specifics on the state of his shoulder.

Nate: Assuming M. Andujar has to move off 3b, is 1b or LF better suited to him?
Keith Law: Probably first base, or right field, although the latter is occupied.

Salty: Heading out to AFL next week – did you stop at any new spots last week that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Roland’s Market is open now – I went there Labor Day weekend and it was excellent. Glai Baan in Phoenix, serving Thai street food and lots of booze, was also tremendous. Copper & Cotton in south Tempe was solid but perhaps too out of the way for AFL visitors.

Mike: I really like Eppler as GM. He groomed and then hand picked Ausmus. Am I too hopeful?
Keith Law: That seemed like a weird hire to me, since Ausmus was literally 12 months removed from a managerial gig where he seemed to take no input from anyone analytical.

Seath: No question. Just wanted to say we went to Flour yesterday after visiting the MFA (they have a Winnie-the-Pooh exhibit right now) . Up until then only had their pastries. Can confirm their sandwiches are delicious and their bread is amazing!
Keith Law: awesome. flour is one of the places I miss most up in Boston.

Pistol Pete: Hey Keith, thoughts on the Greta Van Fleet album? Thoughts on Pitchfork (high on their horse) giving it a 1.6 review?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say I loved it – I feel like they’re a lot more Kingdom Come than Led Zeppelin – but a 1.6 is way harsher than I would have gone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Read your review for The Mind and bought it immediately. About to try it out tonight. Any tips to getting through all the levels?
Keith Law: Not really – it’s about learning to play with your partners, understanding everyone’s rhythms. Don’t forget those throwing stars, which are very valuable.

Oscar: Tell me again why we’re all supposed to just be okay with that obvious pine tar/grease stain on Kimbrel’s hat that he touches before every pitch . . . ?
Keith Law: Because every pitcher seems to do it. Price touched the bill of his cap repeatedly last night. I have no idea if there’s a substance there, but no one batted an eye.

Joe: Non-baseball Q: what is your preferred coffee making vessel? We got about four different ones for our wedding, and I’m seeing positives and negatives from all of them.
Keith Law: I use a V60 for pour-over (drip) and then I own an espresso machine. I’ve never used an Aeropress, which is very trendy now.

Pat: In case you needed a laugh today, the Orioles announced this morning that they signed Kelvin LaRoche. They also announced on August 20th that they signed Kelvin LaRoche.
Keith Law: My favorite part of this is that they signed a shortstop named Machado. Just not that one.

Gabe: Any really good iOs app games lately? I don’t have time for actual board games in my life but do have some downtime with my devices at times.
Keith Law: Last new one I tried and liked was Istanbul. I did try the new Onitama app but the AI player was too easy.

ditcow: I noticed Dave Roberts’ mismanagement of his roster is owed less to stats and more to a habit of always matching lefties and righties. Do you find his moves in alignment with the front office?
Keith Law: I doubt the front office is really a fan of his in-game management.

Jesse B: I just assumed when Archer got out of the AL East he would flourish, but he struggled. Do you think that was just an adjustment period and he’ll be a lot better next year, or is the best behind him?
Keith Law: Still hold out hope for him, but there are some clear adjustments he’ll need to make.

Joel: I am embarrassed to say I missed last week’s klaw chat. Like a lot. Do the Braves gain much by trying to go after a big pitcher in FA? Seems like letting the younger kids pitch would allow them to spend a lot more money elsewhere
Keith Law: Yeah, and this year’s FA pitching class is slim; unless they’re signing a Corbin there’s a good chance anyone they sign is worse than the best in-house alternative.

Alec: Can we get the caravan to settle in your state? Care to take some of them in? Your party white state could use the diversity after all.
Keith Law: Actually, troll, Delaware has the 6th-highest percentage of residents who are African-American, and our white non-Latino percentage is well below the median. So fuck off.

Mac: Lots of Corbin Carroll love out there. Does he have the ceiling to be a top half of the 1st round guy?
Keith Law: Little early for that. He’s a day one guy, but beyond that let’s see how he looks in the spring.

Jesse: How has Gerson Bautista looked at AFL?
Keith Law: Just another middle reliever.

Mr. Redlegs: I know positional versatility is a positive, but moving Senzel everywhere but 3rd is a bit worrisome, no? Seems better to move Suarez back to short and platoon Gennett/Peraza rather than hope Senzel can play center.
Keith Law: I’ve argued this for a while now. Moving Senzel after he worked his ass off to be an average to above-average defender at third, and given his bat, is nuts.

Este: So creationism is “fantasy”, yet the THEORY of evolution is 100 percent fact…lol
Keith Law: Imagine finding this chat but not knowing what the word “theory” means in science. It boggles.

JJ: Thoughts on Counsell’s managerial performance in the playoffs? I was pleasantly surprised especially given his lack of managerial experience prior to getting the Brewers job.
Keith Law: I was impressed too – he was nimble in-game, seemed appropriately aggressive with his bullpen (given the weak starters), chased platoon advantages in high-leverage spots. Nice job.

Guest: Is Manny Machado and everyday SS. Per Baseball Reference he had a -1.2 dWAR with Baltimore and and a 1.2 dWAR with the Dodgers. Is it just positioning and if so, what the hell is wrong with Baltimore?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. That’s some small sample size stuff there, and I don’t think he’s really an Andrelton-level defender at short like the Dodgers figure would imply. He’s also really freaking large for a shortstop. Arm would play anywhere and I think his hands are fine, but covering all that ground that we still expect shortstops to cover is probably a bit much. Plus, he’s a 70 or 80 defender at third.

Rick Sanchez: Reds SP Luis Castillo killed it in the second half after an abysmal first half. What do you project for him long-term?
Keith Law: His second half was largely buoyed by an unsustainably low BABIP. He’s a back-end starter who’d probably be more effective in relief given his lack of a decent third pitch.

Jesse: Any of the lesser known mets in AFL showing well?
Keith Law: Nope, bad showing for the Mets guys, but they didn’t send a ton either.

Taco Tuesday: Charles Leblanc has been mentioned as a possible sleeper prospect for the Rangers — decent bat and the ability to play multiple positions in the infield. Did you see anything from him in Arizona that would suggest he could be a major leaguer at some point?
Keith Law: No – he was really bad in the field, too.

Matt: After finding out Schilling wasnt invited to Game 2, I took a gander at his Twitter account. Umm…he thinks the recent mail bombs are a liberal conspiracy to get people to vote. I mean what the actual fuck?
Keith Law: Yeah, I can’t think of a reason anyone could imagine skipping that guy.

Almir Lima Jr.: Hi Keith, greetings from Brazil! What do you read from this Mets GM search? After this brief statement by Chaim Bloom, it appears that Melvin is going to get the job. Is this just sad or is there any reason to believe that Melvin is the right man right now?
Keith Law: Tudo bem! I saw Bloom’s statement and it sounds like what I said above about the process was probably accurate.

Bill: Nico Hoerner is only player from the 2018 draft in the AFL. He was hurt mid-season so he needs at bats. How is he holding up against upper level competition?
Keith Law: Smart player but didn’t make much hard contact and he’s smaller than I thought. I think maybe a high-average/high OBP second baseman?

Adam: All this talk about pitchers throwing harder/more breaking balls as an excuse for passed balls and wild pitches this post season seems to ignore the fact that the playoff teams struggling the most with this either have catching as their weak spot or offensive minded catchers in general. Shouldn’t a strong defensive catcher be more of a commodity around the trade deadline (like RP’s) for reasons like this?
Keith Law: Also, good framers tend to have more passed balls/WP, per … Harry Pavlidis, I think, told me that on Twitter?

Jordan: Considering that he will be 20 next July, would it be a bad 2019 for Kelenic if he wasn’t in High-A by the end of season?
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t be bad, but I think he’ll get there.

Rob: Now that the Orioles lost out on the Mesa brothers how do you expect them to spend all that international bonus money they traded for?
Keith Law: They signed a few guys today – that’s what the LaRoche/Machado joke was about.

Jesse: How much of a GM job is Baseball ops and how much is it business stuff?
Keith Law: It’s all baseball ops, if you count contracts for players as baseball ops (I do). The only non-baseball responsibilities a GM would have would be on the public relations side, such as talking to corporate sponsors at an offseason event or something.

JR: In a tweet this morning you indicated that the most reasonable criticism of Melvin is that even he admitted the game has passed him by and analytics have changed a bunch in the past 5 years. Do you think the game passed Alderson by while he was still the GM? I know at one time he was seen as being at the forefront of analytics, but it felt like the past few years he was stuck on cruise control while others passed him by.
Keith Law: They weren’t very analytically-minded the last few years, especially when managing the major-league club (much more so in the draft), despite having a real analytics department. I have to assume that came from Sandy.

RyanW: Anything new to report on Cole Tucker after your time in the AFL? Seems like he lacked hard contact this year in AA, is there anymore strength coming is he a 40 raw power type who needs to get to all of his hit tool to be an average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Good athlete who still could grow into a little power, but he’s also very inconsistent at short, especially when throwing.
Keith Law: As in, maybe he doesn’t stay there.

Brian: If Schoop doesn’t rebound from whatever funk plagued him with the Brewers, is Keston Hiura ready to man 2B in 2019? It seems like his bat should be fine, but what about defense?
Keith Law: I think his defense will be adequate, good enough to stay there. I wish I’d seen him hit anything hard last week – it was one groundball after another.

Zac: On a scale of 1-10 how surprised are you that Ausmus got another managing job
Keith Law: Maybe a 2. I figured he’d get it. He went to Dartmouth, he likely interviews well, teams do like to re-hire guys who’ve managed in the majors. O AN HE SEXY.

Andrew: Any books/apps/websites you recommend for meditation?
Keith Law: Fully Present (book) is my go-to.

John Farrell: Isn’t Roberts taking heat for lineup decisions being made by Friedman ?
Keith Law: That’s not how it works … that’s not how any of this works.

Jake: Does Royce Lewis stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: My gut is still no. I got mixed reports from scouts who saw him this year.

Kyle: Is there scientific evidence and support for the dangers of fracking or is it mostly hypothetical at this point?
Keith Law: You can find several papers on this if you search journal papers – on fracking causing earthquakes, for example, or how repeated fracking can contaminate groundwater.

Brian: Hey Keith, love your work. Just wanted to know if you had heard any new industry buzz the Giants next GM. Thanks!
Keith Law: The two names I’ve heard were Jason McLeod of the Cubs and Amiel Sawdaye of the Dbacks, both of whom have roots with the Red Sox, but I have no idea who else is in the process.

Nick: Why do some people think enjoying baseball and liking analytics is mutually exclusive? I enjoy baseball MORE because of the plethora of information available. More data also means my team wins more, which is literally the best thing.
Keith Law: I like to learn things about topics that interest me. I doubt I’m the only one.

Samantha: Any chance Heyward opts out?
Keith Law: Highly doubt it.

Jesse B: Angels still have 3 years and $78 million left on Pujols contract, let that soak in. Assuming Ohtani is going to have to DH next year, what do you do with Pujols at this point? He’s 48, I mean 38, is he just an pinch hitter for 3 years, or do youjust eat the $78 mill and move on?
Keith Law: I would release Pujols. He’s a zero at the plate, he already hit the 3000 hit mark, and he is just burning a roster spot at this point.

Brett: O/U 10 starts for Forrest Whitley in 2019?
Keith Law: In the majors? Over.

Dr. Bob: I think the Dodgers are going to have the most difficult decision of the offseason if Kershaw opts out. A guy moving on the wrong side of 30 who had missed time with injury the last three years and whose velocity has dipped. He will want more than the $30 million and two years left on the contract.
Keith Law: I think you offer to tack on another year or two at a lower salary and see if that solves the problem. He’s not getting 4 and $120 million in this market.

RJS: Follow up on Manny-HOF question. Is he a guy who’d hypothetically be 11th on your list this year, but maybe 9th on your ballot next year after some elections/ballot clearing? Would you vote for the top 10 regardless given the backlog or would you only vote for 7-8 potentially in a given year?
Keith Law: I’ll always vote for the top ten. I don’t like the idea of trying to game the ballot, not least because it’s a good way to outsmart yourself.

Sticky Wicky: The Astros supposedly stealing signs — how much of this is grousing over a really good team, as compared to Houston pushing the envelope on spying compared to the rest of the league?
Keith Law: I’ve heard other rumors about them stealing signs beyond that guy in the camera well. We’ll see if any of those rumors end up confirmed anywhere. I don’t think they’re the only team trying such stuff, though.

Erik: Hey Keith, I just finished “When We Were Orphans” by Kazuo Ishiguro. I couldn’t find your review of it on this site (unless I missed it?). What did you think and how do you think it compares to some of his other works?
Keith Law: I think it’s the only book of his I didn’t review (but I did read it), just because it was kind of meh. Not great, not bad like Unconsoled.

Blake: Random question: Do you like/watch bill maher?
Keith Law: No, and thus no.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi please? Thank you in advance if answered.
Keith Law: He’ll be on my top 50 free agents post when that goes up after the World Series (assuming he is coming over, which all indications I’ve heard are that he will).

Chris: Keith, I know you favor guys who have actually managed before being hired for MLB mgr gigs, but would managing in the minors be somewhat overvalued since that seems to involve a lot of pursuing organizational development goals for the players and not strict in game tactics/strategy and the like? I admittedly speak from ignorance and am not trying to be a wiseass.
Keith Law: No, I still think that’s valuable – having to set lineups, handle in-game changes, consider tactics, still try to win while also considering usage restrictions, etc.

Jerry: Astros need a catcher in 2019. Marlins are open for business (supposedly). Should the Astros be willing to deal Tucker or Whitley to get the deal done? Any chance the Marlins would be willing to take some combination of Bukauskus, Alvarez, Corbin Martin instead?
Keith Law: I’d consider putting Tucker into that deal, but no way I trade Whitley for Realmuto. The other guys are all distinctly second-tier.

PhillyJake: Re: Archer – he did make the changes. His numbers over his last 30 innings were good. The difference? He stopped shaking off Cervelli.
Keith Law: It’s such a small sample that I don’t want to read too much into it yet.

Nick: Have you seen Arquimedes Gamboa in the AFL? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, borderline non-prospect.

Nate: Besides guacamole, any recommendations for using avocado?
Keith Law: Makes a great salsa for topping fish, pork, even grilled chicken. I’m told it makes a good ice cream but I’ll pass on that.

Andy: Adalberto Mondesi? Real?
Keith Law: He is a real person, yes.

Bob W.: Jim Kaat recently decried the general practice of wheeler-dealer moves at the trade deadlines, using the “rooting for laundry” epithet to describe a team that’s been cobbled together by the GM. Realistically, though, isn’t this the only way small market teams like the Twins, Brewers, Royals, etc. can compete for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and that has existed in baseball since Kaat was playing. I enjoyed Jim’s work for years when he moved into the booth. Watching him turn into this Luddite curmudgeon – he’s attacked me, and my book, specifically, to be completely up front here – has disappointed me in a personal way.

Josh in DC: I’ve been enjoying your book, but there’s one aspect (thus far) that troubles me. You highlight the flaws in the old stats, and make a case for the better ones. But what hasn’t come across (to me) is arguments within the analytical community. There seems to be such consensus (Jack Morris: bad; Scott Rolen: good). Where do you find yourself disagreeing with other analytically minded peers?
Keith Law: Lots of issues. I’ve long argued that Fangraphs’ attempts to put dollar values on players as multiples of their WAR is absurd, since the value of a marginal win will vary by team by year. I think framing numbers are volatile enough that I’d regress them substantially rather than merely adding them to a player’s defensive runs saved. (Framing is real, BTW. I’m not arguing it’s bogus.) I also am probably out of step with the common thinking on delaying prospects to manipulate service time and stave off super two or free agency.

Thomas: You’re on your A game with the trolls today (when aren’t you?) Please keep it coming, it’s making my miserable day much brighter!!!
Keith Law: The great thing about trolls is that they’re not very bright as a species.

William: Just saw Robyn Hitchcock in Chicago! What’s the ethical thing for the Cubs to do with Addison Russell at this point?
Keith Law: Probably trade him for nothing. They don’t need him anyway.

Frank: Has judge exceeded your expectations? I know you mentioned the power would be there, but didn’t expect him to hold a high bb%?
Keith Law: Oh yeah, he would’ve been a top 10 prospect if I’d thought he’d become this kind of hitter.

Jon: Don’t forget your free taco Keith
Keith Law: seriously? are we just not doing phrasing any more?

Tyler: College pitching crop looks weak this year. Any guys currently under the radar that you think could jump into day one conversation?
Keith Law: It’s the worst college pitching crop, for this point in the calendar, that I can remember.

Nick: There was a report yesterday that Harper wants at least 10 years/$350m. Over/under? I say over.
Keith Law: Hm. I’m torn here. I would have said over $300 million, but $350 million makes me pause. I’ll guess under.

John Jacob Astor: New indie book stores are great but if you want a magical experience look at great used bookshops
Keith Law: I do. Many of my favorite indie stores sell new and used (like Changing Hands in Phoenix & Tempe).

Dr. Bob: But Ausmus said that he thinks he needs to try some of these new-fangled stat thingies. Doesn’t that make it all okay?
Keith Law: With all thy getting, get understanding, Brad.

Andy: Whit Merrifield is…*exactly* the sort of guy you have to trade, right? Like, the dictionary definition of same?
Keith Law: Yes, like, yesterday.

Joe: Any thoughts on what to expect from Margot going forward? Anything positive this season? Lots of Padre fans seem down on him but he’s still young.
Keith Law: I’m still expecting an above-average regular. Very young, can play the hell out of CF, needs more strength.

Nuggets & Mac ‘n Cheese: You seem to be raising a healthy, curious eater. Any tips for someone with 3-year-old twins who don’t want to eat anything but waffles and PB&J?
Keith Law: Exposure. My daughter was welcome to try anything I ate, anywhere we went, and I took her to a lot of different restaurants when she was as young as 4-5. She didn’t love vegetables and still doesn’t, but she’ll eat a lot of other things (the child loves mushrooms, so mushrooms we will eat, and often) and she will truly try anything at this point.

VVM: There have been varying opinions on VIctor Victor Mesa. Have seen Almora, Robles and Trammell comps. Would love to hear your 2 cents, thanks!
Keith Law: Below all three of those guys. I hear a lot of “extra outfielder” from scouts.

BG: Any plans to post any of your recipes? I was able to impress my then girlfriend (and now wife!) with your roasted red pepper pesto way back in ’08.
Keith Law: I wing it so often at this point that I’d have to slow down and think about what I’m making to turn it into a recipe. I often just buy ingredients and roll with it.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, it was painfully frustrating to listen to the national media. Why do they not even try to understand analytics or explain them to the common fans?
Keith Law: Mute button is your friend.

Jordan: What have you thought of Amed Rosario’s defense at SS so far? Should Mets try Gimenez there when he comes up and move Rosario to 3B or CF?
Keith Law: I think Rosario is fine at short and will end up plus. Gimenez is a great defensive shortstop with no impact with the bat.

Matt: Corbin Burnes has fallen into that prospect coverage no man’s land where he’s no longer rookie eligible, but also isn’t in his long-term future role. I know you were a fan of his last, and his stuff looked electric when I watched him in the playoffs. Do you think he can still be a SP2?
Keith Law: I 100% do. Brewers could have a pretty good rotation next year with Chacin, Burnes, Woodruff, Anderson.

Gob: Yordan Alvarez is “second-tier”?
Keith Law: Yes. Or third-tier.

Andy: On the Mondesi response – it’s your chat, do what you want, but I was trying to introduce a question without being pandering or you-hate-my-team-baiting. I really am curious to see if (and how) your perspective on him has changed now that he appears to have translated some tools to performance. If he can’t develop a feel for pitching, obviously there’s a hard cap on his upside, but this year was still welcome as a fan.
Keith Law: I needed more from you to answer it – I truly didn’t know what you were asking. He has tools, as you said – real speed, good bat-to-ball skill, hard contact (although I’m still very skeptical of the power, which may just be the MLB ball). But he walks once per solstice, and his approach was stunted by lost time and an organizational decision to have him work on bunting more and thus working the count less. It’s going to take a lot of work on his part to gain some semblance of strike zone knowledge to be more than a better Escobar.

AGirlHasNoName: I live in a country that sends military to stop poor people, where my leader incites violence against the media, calls women he paid to have sex horseface, and draws big crowds of sycophants on the weekly. What brand of whiskey helps most to forget?
Keith Law: Feels like something Irish would be appropriate. Pull up a chair, I’ll pour you two fingers of Teeling.

Joe: Hi Keith. Padres Twitter has been driven by two storylines this fall; trading prospect depth for A TOR arm, and deciding who to keep between Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes. Personally I think they should hold onto depthbefore trading anybody, and I don’t buy into Renfroe or Reyes as future pieces. What say you?
Keith Law: I agree with you on both.

Ian: Franklin Barreto strikes out a lot, but so did Matt Chapman. What’s the difference between the two? And if you’re the A’s do you keep Lowrie or hand the job to Barreto?
Keith Law: Chapman has real power and is an elite defender. Barreto doesn’t have much power and isn’t an elite defender.

Matt: Judd Fabian and Corey Acton are graduating in December of their senior year in high school to enroll early at Florida so they can play college ball. Do you see more kids doing that in the future?
Keith Law: I hate when players do this and have always discouraged players or parents when I’m asked my opinion on this.

John: I just want to say Thank you for calling out those who try to employ “whataboutism” as a rhetorical device. Life’s too short to suffer these people’s “arguments.”
Keith Law: It’s become increasingly popular these days too.

AES: Re: Machado, can we agree he seems to be a dirty player, but whatever he does between the lines is about 8 tiers better than those who hurt people outside them?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m not sure I love that comparison. He’s done some shady stuff on the field this postseason. He’s also ultracompetitive, which is something you do want as a GM or manager.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for your questions, as always. If I chat next week, it’ll be Wednesday rather than Thursday, so please keep an eye out for an announcement. Enjoy the last weekend of regular baseball for 2018!

The Cooking Gene.

Michael W. Twitty’s memoir The Cooking Gene: A Journey Through African American Culinary History in the Old South won the James Beard Foundation’s Book of the Year Award this spring, as well as a separate award for Writing. Combining Twitty’s own search for his genealogical and culinary roots with a long exploration of how the enslavement and forced migration of millions of Africans defined what we now think of as the cuisines of the United States, the Caribbean, and much of South America, The Cooking Gene wanders around the globe in prose and subject in a quest for meaning and identity through food.

Twitty is a fascinating character in his own book: born in Washington D.C. in 1977, Twitty is African-American, gay, and a convert to Judaism, and thanks to DNA testing and genealogical research, he can trace his ancestry back to white ancestors in the 1800s. He’s an advocate for black culinary history in this country, leading the “Southern Discomfort Tour” and giving a TED talk on the extent to which African foodways informed and defined American cooking, notably southern cuisine, but have been ignored or underrepresented in discussions of our culinary history. He has spoken, cooked, and served at plantations in the South that formerly housed slaves, and his knowledge of culinary history is largely the result of his own autodidactic nature. He began the project that eventually became The Cooking Gene in 2011, publishing the book in 2017 (via an imprint of HarperCollins, the same publishing house that produced Smart Baseball) to great acclaim.

The narrative in The Cooking Gene is nonlinear of necessity, something Twitty acknowledges in the closing section, which meant that for me it took a while to get wrapped up in any aspect of the story, but once he gets rolling on his own ancestry the book starts to resemble a more cohesive work – even though his heritage is anything but cohesive. Twitty traces his roots back to many places, including presumed white ancestor named Bellamy whose plantation he visits, to various tribes of west Africa including the Akan people of Ghana and Mende people of Sierra Leone, and to … Ireland, of all places, which apparently got him some amusing reactions when he visited and told locals why he was there.

Every trip branches out into multiple anecdotes, just as every new DNA test he takes – there’s one, AfricanAncestry.com, that provides more specific information on African DNA lineages – also leads to new digressions and stories. There’s a lot of slave history in The Cooking Gene, much of it physically brutal, but also much of it putting the lie to the myths of the benevolent slaveholders who sent their cooks to learn French cooking in Paris, but treated them just as badly when they returned, often using the education merely as a way to increase the resale value of their ‘property.’

The broader point of this book, however, is that all cuisines we think of as distinctly American or Caribbean derive heavily from west African cooking traditions, to the point where Twitty flatly accuses many white chefs, writers, and culinary historians of a form of appropriation. Even our words for many ingredients, like okra (from ??k??r??, an Igbo word, spoken in southeastern Nigeria), trace their etymologies back along the slave trade routes from the American South and Caribbean to western Africa, where such foods and the antecedents of dishes like gumbo go back for centuries. Beans and rice, whether the Creole red beans version or the Brazilian feijão or the hoppin’ john of the Carolinas, originate in west Africa. Fried chicken, considered a staple Southern food with Scottish origins, also has roots in west Africa, where the meat was heavily seasoned and fried in palm oil. Yams, peanuts (groundnuts), and watermelon all originated in different parts of Africa, and are also now considered part of the traditional cuisine of the American South. Twitty also offers the rare example of a culinary tradition traveling the other way, from the Americans to Africa, as nixtamalization, the process of treating corn (maize) with a strong alkaline solution to remove fungal toxins while increasing the nutritional value of the product.

Twitty connects his search for his genealogical roots with his exploration of his culinary roots by combining them into a single if meandering narrative around identity – that both types of roots were, in effect, stolen from black Americans when they were captured in Africa and brought against their will to the Americas. Thus, by reclaiming the culinary and gustatory heritage of black Americans, Twitty believes he and others can continue to rebuild their cultural and ethnic identities in a country that still attempts to marginalize and disenfranchise people of color.

I listened to the audiobook version of The Cooking Gene, read by Twitty himself, which was probably not the best decision. Twitty has an endearing, folksy delivery, but pauses constantly at strange points in sentences, even breaking up phrases where no breaks belong, which I found endlessly distracting. It’s not an occasional thing – he regularly does this, as if he’s turning to the next page – and I think I’d recommend the physical or ebook formats instead.

Next up: Ben Rhodes’ memoir of his years in the Obama White House, The World As It Is.

A Deepness in the Sky.

Vernor Vinge has won three Hugo Awards for Best Novel, including A Fire Upon the Deep, the first book in his so-called “Zones of Thought” series, as well as the cyberpunk-lite Rainbow’s End, but in both cases Vinge focused more on the hows of the science in his science fiction than on the story or characters. The third winner was his longest, A Deepness in the Sky, the second book in the Zones of Thought series but taking place hundreds of years before the preceding book, and despite its length and Vinge’s usual prolixity, for once he gives the reader a plot with some teeth and a few truly intriguing, three-dimensional characters. At a girthy 775 pages, it’s not for everyone and perhaps not worth the time investment, but compared at least to the other two Vinge novels I’ve read, it was the best and most enjoyable read.

The long and often confusing setup to the A Deepness in the Sky boils down to two storylines. Two human forces have both reached a new star system, with the star referred to as OnOff for its bizarre cycle of going dark every hundred years* or so, and with one planet occupied by a sentient non-human race known colloquially as Spiders. One force is the Qeng Ho band of interstellar traders, who also appear in A Fire Upon the Deep, while the other are the Emergents, a belligerent group unafraid to use violence or coercion and, as becomes clear a bit later in the book, willing to use humans as high-tech slaves by reprogramming their minds to Focus on specific tasks. The two sides agree to work together and almost immediately betray each other, with the Emergents coming out on top, leaving just a handful of Qeng Ho characters, including the mysterious old man Pham Trinli, the younger leader Ezr Vinh, and the precocious young Qiwi Lin Lisolet, who grows from annoying child to central character over the course of the novel, to try to free their side from the Emergents’ grip.

* Vinge is too clever by half with his way of telling time in the book, referring to everything in terms of seconds, so thus using Ksec (kiloseconds) or Msec (megaseconds) rather than weeks, months, or years. It may have some veneer of accuracy, since our definition of a year is tied specifically to this planet, but it is annoying as hell to read, and it’s not as if Vinge adheres to this idea of planet-independent language throughout the book.

Meanwhile, on the planet in question, the Spiders themselves are growing into a high-tech civilization, led by the eccentric polymath Sherkaner Underhill, who develops technologies that allow his specific country to survive the Dark years when their sun goes dim and the planet experiences a deadly deep freeze. Unaware that they’re being observed by aliens, Underhill and his colleagues are also pushing a cultural change that threatens the ‘natural’ order of things, defended by a right-wing religious group called the Kindred. The Emergents view the Spiders as a culture to be exploited, even more so when the Spiders discover a mineral that contains anti-gravity properties, while the remnants of the Qeng Ho hope to save themselves and the Spiders from that and the massacres that would precede the Emergents’ invasion.

Vinge’s specialty has always been his ability to conceive futuristic technologies and incorporate them thoroughly into his plots – although, again, that can work to the detriment of the story – and that’s especially true here of the “localizers,” a sort of smartdust tech that Pham Trinli trades to the Emergents, with an ulterior motive, and that allows the Emergent leader Tomas Nau to create a police state aboard their ships as they orbit the Spiders’ planet. These nanodevices, some floating and some embedded on people or objects, allow Nau and his sadistic enforcer Ritser Brughel to monitor everyone under their command and even to sense changes in mood or sentiment, including whether someone is lying to them. While slightly farfetched, the technology allows Vinge to ratchet up the tension within the story by creating a razor-thin margin for Trinli and Vinh to overthrow their leaders. The Focus technology is probably even less realistic, but introduces an advanced sort of slavery, one where the enslaved become obsessed with their specific task, losing their free will and their emotional selves but allowing the Emergents to solve bigger problems faster and thus push their civilization forward, creating philosophical conflicts within the story about the morality of such practices (although for the reader it’s hardly much of a debate).

There’s still no reason for Vinge to drone on as long as he does in A Deepness in the Sky, with maybe 500 pages of real story in a 775-page book, bloated again by descriptions of future tech and irrelevant asides, along with some subplots that just aren’t very interesting (Ezr’s attempts to save his former lover Trixia Bonsol from Focus are particularly weak). Vinge also isn’t great at creating female characters; the most prominent woman in the story, Qiwi, starts as a child, is manipulated by Nau into a not-really-consensual relationship, and only regains true agency in the last few pages of the book. It’s a sort of hard science fiction that has fallen somewhat out of favor today, with good reason, as we have more diverse voices writing in the space and an increased awareness that better prose and character development can work in genre fiction. If you’re looking to pick up a Vinge novel, this would be my pick of the three I’ve read, but I think sci-fi still has much more to offer than A Deepness in the Sky provides.

Next up: Mohsin Hamid’s Moth Smoke.

Stick to baseball, 10/20/18.

My first dispatch from the Arizona Fall League went up for ESPN+ subscribers this week, covering Forrest Whitley, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Julio Pablo Martinez, and more. I’ll file another, likely longer report this weekend.

My latest board game review for Paste covers the Spiel des Jahres-nominated cooperative game The Mind, where all players have to try to play all their hand cards to the table in ascending order – but without communicating with each other at all.

I’ll be at the Manheim Library in Manheim, PA, on Monday, October 22nd, to talk about Smart Baseball and sign copies of the book (which will be available for purchase there too).

I sent out the latest edition of my free email newsletter on Friday night. If you don’t get it, you don’t know what you’re missing.

And now, the links…

Missing Person.

French author Patrick Modiano won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Literature, and his best-known work, at least outside of France, is his novel Missing Person (originally Rue des Boutiques Obscure, a real street in Rome on which Modiano once lived), which won the 1978 Prix Goncourt, the French equivalent to the Pulitzer or the National Book Award. Modiano’s works tend to be short and tersely written, with sparing prose not too dissimilar to Hemingway’s, and a constant distance maintained between the reader and the text. (This post is primarily about Missing Person, but this summer I also read Suspended Sentences, a collection of three novellas by Modiano, which informs my opinion of his style.)

The protagonist of Missing Person is an amnesiac detective whose boss of ten years is retiring, leaving him to try to solve the case of his own lost identity and history, based on scant clues and the need to talk to people who may not remember him, or want to talk, or even still be among the living. The short novel follows the character around Paris and France, and eventually to the South Pacific island of Bora Bora, as he tries to unroll the years he lost prior to whatever caused his amnesia. He uncovers a possible answer to his identity, although it’s far from certain, and the person he may once have been was himself a frequent changer of identities as he tried to flee from the occupying forces during World War II, eventually slipping across the Pyrennées into Spain.

Even that story, however, is of dubious veracity, and there’s a sense throughout the novel that the protagonist, who also narrates the work, is grasping at any straws he can find, overly eager to get an answer to his search without worrying enough whether it’s accurate. He has a photograph of someone who might have been him, but whenever he shows it to someone who might recognize him in that context, he’s quick to ask, “Don’t you think it looks like me?” — a leading question that elicits half-hearted agreement more than actual answers. Once the narrator has a story on to which he can latch on, he also seems to drop alternate theories, which seems contrary to his new identity as a private detective and apparently a successful one at that.

It’s impossible to read a story like this without also seeing it as a meditation on identity – on our need for a back story, for example, or how on the stories we tell ourselves to provide meaning to our lives, especially when there might be things in our own pasts we’d rather gloss over or forget entirely. It’s unclear whether the protagonist did things during the war of which he might not be proud now, and there’s a trap in his easy adoption of this particular identity: what if he finds he was a collaborator, not a resister, during World War II? Or simply betrayed people who were close to him? The farther he goes down this rabbit hole, trying to convince people to give him the answers he wanted, the greater the risk he exposes himself to a story he might have preferred to forget.

And if the narrator can’t solve the mystery of his identity and past, then what remains for him? Can he be satisfied living a life without a history, or knowing his real name (or, as it seems, one of his real names)? When the foundation of our self-identification is denied to us, how does that affect our ability to function in a society that is obsessed not just with who we are or where we came from, but with where our parents came from, or whether we come from certain stock or a high enough class? What does the lack of a personal history do to someone’s self-image? Is it better to have a satisfying myth than to have the unvarnished truth – especially if the latter is unflattering or even includes something shameful?

Modiano’s stories seem to lack firm conclusions; that is certainly true of Missing Person, where the Bora Bora lead doesn’t pan out, leaving the narrator with one last clue to try to unravel his personal history, with the novel ending with a brief thought from the narrator on his quixotic mission but no resolution. He might know who he was, but he’s not sure and it appears he might never receive that closure. Modiano asks if half an answer, of uncertain accuracy, would be better than having none at all, and leaves it to the reader to judge.

Next up: I’m halfway through Vernor Vinge’s mammoth Hugo-winning novel A Deepness in the Sky.

Hold the Dark.

The Netflix movie Hold the Dark, which was released briefly in theaters and debuted at the Toronto film festival, is a slow-burning mix of Jim Thompson-esque noir and psychological horror, set in the bleakest of American landscapes – a small Native American village somewhere in Alaska. Based on the novel by William Giraldi and directed by Jeremy Saulner (Green Room), the movie falls for a few cliches of the noir genre but keeps the tension high at virtually every point, eventually arriving at a climax that appears to have left many readers guessing at what it meant.

A writer and wolf expert Russell Core (Jeffrey Wright) gets a letter from an Alaska woman named Medora Sloane (Riley Keough), who says her son was kidnapped by wolves and asks Core to come find the wolf and kill it. He does, but things get weird almost immediately, when on his first night staying in her house, she appears nude, wearing a wolf mask, and lies down next to him while trying to get him to choke her. Her husband, Vernon (Alexander Skarsgård), is seen in graphic scenes of firefighting in Iraq, and is nearly killed, returning home to find his son dead and his wife by that point missing, which in turn sets off a string of violent shootings that envelop an unwilling Core in their web and the manhunt for Vernon that ensues. (Medora is the young woman who waits at home for her pirate captain lover Corrado on Verdi’s opera Il corsaro; she and Corrado both die at the end, because that’s just how things went in 19th century opera.)

Hold the Dark is decidedly, deliberately creepy, with barren white landscapes and wooden cabins with dark interiors, so that nearly all of the movie is a little hard on the eyes and leaves you unsettled regardless of what’s happening on the screen. Core is the central character, although the narrative does shift to follow Vernon on the lam, and much of the camera work tries to give you that same sense of dread and confusion that Core would be experiencing as he’s exploring the Sloanes’ basement or is caught in a firefight with cops and a suspect. There’s a lot of graphic violence – almost every shooting involves blood and flesh flying from the body, certainly more than anyone really needs to see here – but the most powerful on-screen deaths are the ones that occur with little or no warning. Core is a witness to nearly all of them, and his reactions, coupled with the trouble he has coping with the short daylight hours of the Alaskan winter (it’s near the solstice, so the days are just five or so hours long), infuse the film with a sense of permanent unease, like the world is spinning just a tick faster than normal and you can’t find your footing.

Wright is especially apt for his role, as the grey in his beard and his overall mien convey seriousness and an implacability that will be quickly tested by the events of the story, and he has the deep, sonorous voice that can work even as the characters are mumbling. There is a lot of mumbling, though, which struck me as a too-hard attempt to give the movie that noir feel – it’s all serious, we’re serious, a little violence won’t even change the cadence of our speech – when the plot itself should do that. This is dark noir, like Thompson or even some James Cain, where no character is safe and thus you don’t feel like you can anchor yourself to anyone in the film. Even Keough tries to join in, with a vacant, affect-less speech that makes her sound more strung-out than anything else (exacerbated by makeup that makes it look like she hasn’t slept in a long time – which would fit her character’s arc).

The sky and the dark are frequent themes and characters mention them several times, both as a metaphor for the psychosis that appears to have gripped some of the characters in the film and as a literal reference to the effect that the wide open spaces and pervasive darkness can have on people who are already living isolated lives. The wolf mask and several scenes with wolves acting in what appear to be counterintuitive ways speak to the fact that we are animals at heart, and the story seems to ask whether we are really all that able to suppress the animal instincts within us. There’s also a subtext here, never spelled out but to which the dialogue alludes a few times (and with one picture), that I shouldn’t mention for fear of spoiling the ending, although apparently this is clearer in the book (I did not think it was very clear), but it’s important to fully understand what Hold the Dark is trying to achieve. If you can stand the violence – and I would say this was on the edge of what I tolerate – it’s a really gripping, dark vision into humanity on the edge of civilization, and most of the film lives up to the tension of a good thriller.

(One warning: there’s a rape scene near the start of the movie that isn’t explicit but makes it very clear what’s happening. The scene is shot strangely anyway, but I thought a trigger warning was justified.)

Stick to baseball, 10/13/18.

No Insider content this week, but I’ll have at least two posts next week from the Arizona Fall League. I did hold a Klawchat on Thursday, and did a Periscope video chat Friday (in which I played a little guitar too).

I’m hoping to get another edition of my free email newsletter out before I fly to Arizona on Sunday, so feel free to sign up for my most random and disconnected thoughts.

If you live in east-central Pennsylvania, I’ll be at the Manheim Library in Manheim, PA, on October 22nd at 6:30 pm to talk Smart Baseball and whatever else you desire.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 10/11/18.

Keith Law: Try to click with whatcha got. Klawchat.

Devon: As a Braves fan, I was thinking recently about the weirdest trade I can remember and it always comes back to the Alex Wood for Hector Olivera fiasco. That trade was weird at the time and it’s aged poorly. Did it make any sense to you? What’s a trade you can think of that you read and said “Huh?”
Keith Law: That’s one of the weirdest, worst ones I can think of – Atlanta’s international guys loved Olivera as a free agent, and somehow that became the justification to trade for the guy even after he’d played a little in pro ball and people realized he wasn’t very good. And then they overestimated the odds of Wood getting hurt (which he did, but only after providing a lot of value). Of course, Coppolella was on the good end of the most lopsided deal I can remember in recent years – the Shelby Miller heist.

Gamecocks: You have mentioned in the past that you think Clarke Schmidt is a reliever. Have you heard or seen anything recently that changes your mind?
Keith Law: On the contrary, he made all of two appearances this year before getting hurt again. And it’s a high-risk delivery. I think he’s more likely to be a reliever than I did two years ago, not less.

Nate: Now that each player has a full season at the MLB level, how do you project Albies, Swanson, and Camargo? All average to slightly above? Major concerns?
Keith Law: Albies has the upside of a star, but he got so homer-happy after the hot start that he nuked his own value. He has to become more disciplined first, and then some power will arise as a natural result. Swanson average regular. Camargo somewhere around there too, maybe a shade below. He’s another guy who’s shown unexpected power thanks to the MLB ball, after showing none in the minors.

Dr. Bob: Though the Yanks won 100 games, did Aaron Boone’s lack of experience show in his bullpen usage this series? Or is that unfair?
Keith Law: I think it’s quite fair – and yes, he won 100 games, but he inherited a team that won 91, and the AL was more stratified this year so I don’t think his team faced as difficult a schedule.

Stats Novice: I saw on Twitter you mentioned Bogaerts being 2-25 against Severino is just randomness, and too small of a sample to be considered meaningful data. At what point, if ever, does data like that become meaningful? Is it still possible for a hitter to perform better/worse against a certain pitcher if the sample size is long enough?
Keith Law: By the time such a sample was meaningful, so much time would have elapsed that the players would have changed to the point that the early data have lost their utility.

Nate: Which of these 5 is in the Braves rotation at the end of next season (barring injury of course): Folty, Tehran, Gausman, Newk, Touki, Wright, Gohara, Fried, Wilson, other?
Keith Law: Folty, Gausman, Touki are the three I feel most confident in. Wilson could be back by year-end but I feel like they won’t rush him next spring. I still very much believe in Fried as a starter too.

de la: Hi, thanks as always. Which young starters would be best to build around: Borucki, BKeller, Peralta, DRodriguez or Suarez?
Keith Law: I don’t have any of those guys as long-term average starters. I’m sure one will be, because baseball, but as a portfolio of guys they’re all kind of in that back-end starter bucket. Borucki intrigues me the most.

Everyone: Obligatory Victor Mesa question: Is he (and his brother) worth the hype?
Keith Law: I have heard that they are less than the hype – great workout guys, maybe not such great players. I didn’t see their workout in Miami as it was closed to anyone but team personnel.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Reading post season updates to the Phillies farm and I don’t like what I see. Obviously they haven’t hit on any of their first round picks, could you explain why you think this is? Bad luck? Bad scouting? Bad philosophy? Thanks!
Keith Law: Their philosophy on first-round picks isn’t working out. They’ve done better with some later picks, and international continues to provide depth and length to the system. But they need a change of strategy for the first pick after three straight that appear not to have worked (not counting Bohm).

TF Fredrik: What is your best guess as to where pitching will go in ten years? I would assume that front offices have been running the numbers on every conceivable iteration of filling 9 innings that we could think of. With Rays leading the charge, has the dam broken? What would be best combination of filling innings, keeping pitchers happy, avoiding injuries, & getting highest level of performance?
Keith Law: I think using of pitchers for multiple innings with one to three days off between outings will become increasingly common as a way to balance effectiveness and health.

Bill: Phillies fans should probably be concerned about Sixto’s abrupt removal from the AFL roster right?
Keith Law: Guy hasn’t stayed healthy and apparently his conditioning isn’t so great right now. It’s a concern, yes. I haven’t heard that this is serious, though.

Tom: I was happy to see that the Mets were interviewing Chaim Bloom and considering Mike Chernoff. Guys from front offices that win while not spending money would seem to fit the Wilpon’s vision. Do you think either would be a good choice?
Keith Law: I do. Granted, I’m not sure Mets fans should resign themselves to life as a small-market team…

Eric: The Twins hiring David Ross would be __________.
Keith Law: Repeating a mistake.

PhillyJake: Did you register to vote?
Keith Law: Yes. I’ll be voting pro-science right down the line.

Adam: Does a Byron Buxton for Manuel Margot challenge trade make sense for the Twins and Padres, or does one team have to give up more than the other?
Keith Law: Bad deal for the Twins.

Ryan: braves sign harper?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely.

Adam: Considering the sheer volume of players the Padres signed from the 2016 J2 class, how would you rate the results/progress from that group so far?
Keith Law: Excellent. Seems like every two months we hear about another guy popping from that class.

mike: what was the point of toronto sending Vlad Jr to Arizona?? He’s killing it as expected
Keith Law: Gotta work (snicker) on his (chortle) defense (GUFFAW).

Ben: Did I catch an Oasis quote in the opening line? What brought out such an old lyric (from my favorite band)?
Keith Law: I’ve been playing that song pretty much every day on the guitar.

Tim: Bone Spurs removed for Nick Senzel. Any reason to fret on this kind of surgery/injury for a position player? Thanks.
Keith Law: No, unless they find the spurs damaged the UCL (I don’t think they did).

Adam: If Manny Machado is the ceiling of Fernando Tatis Jr, is Trevor Story the realistic outcome?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if Tatis struck out with that frequency.

Nick: Who are some names I should I be excited to hear for the Mets GM search? Who are some names I should roll my eyes at that they’ll likely end up with?
Keith Law: The Mets need to hire someone who is comfortable with analytics. That can be someone of just about any age. It would not be, say, Ned Colletti. (Rinse and repeat for Baltimore.)

Jeff: Keith, thanks for your insight and wisdom. Regarding the Dodgers, if money is not a factor, would you consider signing Machado and trying to shuffle Seager or Turner to make room in the infield? What other priorities would you have in the offseason regardless of the playoff outcome?
Keith Law: I’ll answer with a question: What is Seager capable of doing after TJ? Is his arm affected at all, so that shortstop is no longer feasible? That may determine the correct strategy more than anything about Machado per se

A big dumb idiot: How popular would this chat be if your dad was a plumber from Poughkeepsie?
Keith Law: Good question. My dad was actually an electrical engineer from the Bronx, which I don’t know if it’s better or worse.

Adam: Are HS corner only bats undervalued in the draft?
Keith Law: Not in my opinion. Their floor is essentially zero and their failure rate is pretty high. I would not include HS 3B in that group, though – third base is a skill position, much more than the other three corner spots, and a HS player who can play third should be grouped with second basemen.

Hernando: In three years what do you envision from the following: Jarred Kelenic, Amed Rosario, Andres Giminez, David Peterson?
Keith Law: Star, above-average regular to star, regular, mid-rotation starter. I hate the Mets, by the way.

Guest: If you were Brian Cashman, would you: a) sign Manny Machado and move Andujar to the outfield or b) sign Bryce Harper and live with Andujar’s bad defence at 3rd?
Keith Law: If they want to sign Machado, Andujar isn’t a factor. That’s a four- to six-win upgrade at third. You sign Manny and figure the rest out later.

Asking4aFriend: Which prospects are you excited to see in the AFL?
Keith Law: All of them is a little facile .. but it’s my favorite trip of the year. Nate Pearson is one. Luis Robert is another. Lucius Fox. Hudson Potts. Forrest Whitley, of course. Taylor Trammell. Nico Hoerner, Jahmai Jones as a 2b. Jazz Chisholm. Juan Pablo Martinez. And there’s this big guy from the Jays who can rake…

Mike: Is there any reason to believe Gary Sanchez will ever become a league-average defensive catcher? It seems that his defensive struggles are getting worse: I’ve never seen a major league catcher react so poorly in trying to receivable “catchable” pitches.
Keith Law: He’s looked bad, although I feel like he catches a lot of guys who throw really hard with a lot of spin on everything. We’ve seen a lot of catchers get better once in the majors, so I hate to rule it out, but I do feel a bit like he’s regressing from where he was as a rookie or even in double-A when he finally seemed to have taken the defensive side of his game seriously.

Dr. Bob: Is the key for deciding starter/reliever the number of pitches he can command? 1 or 2 pitches = reliever? 3 or more pitches = starter?
Keith Law: Very few ML starters have only 2 average or better pitches. If you don’t have a change or split, you’re going to have a real platoon issue. If you don’t have a breaking ball, you may have a lot of trouble with same-side hitters.

AES: Would you start Price, or move him into a fireman’s role? 10 starts is tiny, but there are other viable options. . .
Keith Law: I don’t think his postseason data tell us anything, but I do worry that he’s not fully healthy.

Ed: If you’re the Cubs, do you pick up Hamels’ option for next year?
Keith Law: Absolutely – or, before that, I offer him something like 2/$35 million instead.

All Mets Fans: Do you think the Wilpons are financially capable of giving out a contract to Machado or Harper?
Keith Law: Whether or not they’re capable, they ain’t willing.

JL: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats. Apologies if this is too personal or you’ve covered this before. But my wife and I have an 11 month old and due to how difficult the pregnancy was on her with some health issues, he will likely be our only child and we are ok with this. Is there any unique advice you can share about having only one child? We try to focus on all of the positives of it! Thanks!
Keith Law: All the stuff we learned or heard about raising an only child turned out to be not that useful. I don’t think we ever did anything different because she was our only one. It was easier for us that she never wanted a sibling, too.

Steve: What did you see as the biggest change in Michael King? What would his upside be given 2018 success?
Keith Law: Addressed a few weeks ago in this column. Stat line is very misleading.

Taylor: Alek Thomas seems like a potential plus hit, plus defense, average power center fielder. What do you think of his potential? Is he a future star? Thank you!
Keith Law: Potential future star, yes. Thought he had first-round ability in the draft but had the downside of playing in the cold against weak competition.

Dana: If the Yanks sign Machado, do you think Andujar has the ability to become an OK first baseman?
Keith Law: Probably, if they’re willing to move on from Bird at that spot. But see above – the presence of Andujar shouldn’t affect their choice on Machado.

Taylor: Lots of rumors in the second half of Severino tipping his pitches…again now after his most recent start. As a scout, how difficult is it to notice when someone is tipping their pitches and do you think this actually happens often or is just a convenient excuse?
Keith Law: Occasionally true, usually an excuse. Here I think it’s an excuse. His command has been noticeably off in the second half.

addoeh: I was reading this book called Smart Baseball (the author’s name eludes me right now) and there were sections about high-spin fastballs and average spin rate fastballs. But what about the effect of below average spin rate fastballs? Is the effect of spin rate linear based on the spin rate or is it more of a curve?
Keith Law: More of a curve. Way worse to have average spin. Better to be near the extremes of the range.

Nate: Do you see Weigel ever factoring into the Braves plans, or did the lost time due to injury result in him being passed by too many other arms?
Keith Law: Oh I think he sees the majors next year. He apparently hit 99 in instructs last month. Just not sure how much he’ll be able to pitch in 2019, but he’s a future rotation piece too.

Jax: Conforto had a great ending to the season. You think he’s primed to have a career year in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, strictly because I think he’s healthy, and he would have had that season this year had he been so.

Mike: When will America realize that the only tangible form of voter fraud going on is voter suppression, which is primarily perpetrated by Republicans against people of color?
Keith Law: I would say 30% or more of American voters are completely fine with voter suppression. By the way, if you live in Georgia and haven’t called the State House and your state rep and senator to scream about Brian Kemp abusing his power to try to suppress votes for his opponent, you should be doing so today.

Jennyfer: Isn’t there a psychological component to knowing that you’ve had great success against a certain pitcher or have failed miserably against them? That’s not to say you can’t have success, but sometimes I feel like you ignore the mental aspect of the game because it’s not quantifiable across a broad spectrum.
Keith Law: If it exists it has been either too small to measure or too hard to detect in the tiny samples with which we have to work. The result in either case is that it shouldn’t affect our decision-making.
Keith Law: Also, I tend to think that players who are that vulnerable wash out before they reach the majors. The pressure on these guys to reach the top of the pyramid is already tremendous.

Archie: If you were hired to run the Giants, would you consider pursuing Goldy?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think they have the prospects for it, and that roster needs to be turned over, not propped up like Weekend at Posey’s.

Bryce Harper: Should the Nationals sign me for $300M over 8 with an opt-out for me or sign Corbin and a 2B or C instead?
Keith Law: Probably better to do the latter, as much as I believe in Harper returning to stardom. I also think Robles is a stud, and they’d extract more value from their money by playing him and Soto every day, then spending the way you suggested.

Billy: What do you think of the Dbacks potential firesale? To me, I think it’s absolutely necessary. What say you?
Keith Law: Same.

Jim Nantz: Any thoughts on candidates for the next Rangers job? I remember you were high on Cora for a few years and that’s obviously worked out well. Who’s the next guy on your list?
Keith Law: I saw Jayce Tingler’s name come up in some local media coverage and I think he’d be excellent.

addoeh: If Vlad Gurrero Jr’s dad were an undertaker from Uusikaupunki, would he still be a top-10 prospect?
Keith Law: He’d be #1 on my best prospects in pesäpallo rankings.

Rick C: I think you sell Camargo short. Sure, the ball is probably helping him, but he’s also gotten bigger and stronger, and improved his approach at the plate.
Keith Law: Bigger and stronger I buy. I don’t think his approach is actually that good.

Cooper: The Dbacks may have four first round picks and 5 of the top 50 in this upcoming draft. Is this a solid enough draft that Dbacks fans should get really excited about this potential haul?
Keith Law: It’s not a good draft but five of the top 50 is still good enough to make some noise.

Chris: Thinking of heading down to the AFL in a week or two for the first time. What are a couple things to do nearby?
Keith Law: Other than eating? I didn’t do a ton of touristy stuff while living there but the Zoo and Botanical Gardens are both great, the Science Museum is solid, and there’s a lot of good hiking in the metro area.

Steven: Do you feel vindicated at all by Alex Cora’s success? I remember you being a bit annoyed that he hadn’t been given a chance to manage before this.
Keith Law: More relieved to see him get the chance, because I knew he’d do well and respect him tremendously, and because I think it may further open the door for people of color to get legitimate interviews and chances to manage.

Kevin: Give us a conspiracy theory you give the best chance of being true. Use as loose of a definition for conspiracy theory as you need.
Keith Law: MLB knew the ball was juiced.

Steve: Does Loaisiga have a shot to be full time rotation guy next season? Showed flashes in few appearances.
Keith Law: If healthy, which he has almost never been for a full season.

Brian: Have you watched Kyler Murray at all on a football field? Even if you aren’t a fan of the sport his athleticism on the field is jaw dropping. He runs like he has a turbo button.
Keith Law: I’ve seen highlights of him running. I also think he looks kind of small even among college players.

Steve: Blake Snell is the only pitcher in history with 20+ wins, an ERA -2.00 and ave 11+ Ks in a season. Not Johnson, Grove, Koufax etc How can he not win the Cy Young?
Keith Law: Strikeouts are at an all-time high in the game right now. That’s really a bad comparison.

Jack: I know you said last year that the Braves should trade Ender (rightfully, in my opinion) and caught a lot of slack for it. Should the Braves explore that option this summer and what kind of return could they expect?
Keith Law: Yes, I still think so, but the return might be half what it would have been last winter. With Acuna there and Pache’s glove already major-league ready, trading Inciarte still makes sense. He’s a starter for a lot of teams and underpaid, so you might get two decent prospects for him.

Mike: Keith, I like the “pro-science-down-the-line” voting philosophy. Do you know if there is a site that tracks candidates based on their views on science-related issues, or are there a few “litmus test” issues you use to evaluate candidates?
Keith Law: 314action.org is a good resource. Climate change and evolution (teaching it in schools, without fantasies alongside them) are my two main tests – you’ll usually find a quick split with those two alone.

Chris: Some people have floated the narrative that Scott Boras is pissed at the Cubs for manipulating Kris Bryant’s service time by not promoting him until May in 2015 and as a result he would not only dissuade Bryant from signing a long-term contract before he hits free agency, but steer him away from the Cubs once he does. How stupid is that claim? Money talks, no?
Keith Law: It’s more likely that Bryant is still pissed than Boras is. Boras might advise his client not to take a deal, but if the client says “take it,” then they will.

Jake: Any interest in the Giants job? You could love the a very progressive city and run a team with a massive payroll, but has been slapped in the face recently due to their reliance on overpaid, older players. Seems like it could be a solid fix-it-up project.
Keith Law: I’m not on any team’s longlist, but that is a very appealing job for a qualified candidate, for the reasons you said, a longstanding analytics presence, some very good longtime scouts, and an unbelievable local food and coffee scene within walking distance of the ballpark.

Dusty: Any thoughts you have on Wander Javier coming into the 2019 season? Can he shoot his way back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t in my top 100 before so that’s a no.

James: If pitcher vs hitter data is not useful on a 1 to 1 basis (1 hitter vs 1 specific pitcher), do you think we’ll get to the point where a pitcher can be grouped into a bucket (power pitcher, command pitcher) and a hitter’s splits against that TYPE of pitcher will be useful? For example, hitter X struggles against hard thrower with a slider, but is better against a hard thrower with a curveball? Is there value to extract from that? Presumably teams are already doing it?
Keith Law: We already do that. That’s what platoon split data are.

Diego: Any thoughts on why LaCava and Cherington would decline to interview for Mets GM job?
Keith Law: Cherington declined, as did Levine. I don’t know if Lacava declined or wasn’t asked. I think the industry impression of that job is negative – that you’re being asked to win while your hands are tied by a low payroll and meddlesome ownership.

Joules: Why would Machado insist on SS suddenly? Top 2 3B in baseball, pretty rough at SS. Is this possibly coming from his agent?
Keith Law: Maybe, but also, I wonder if this is just to open up his market further.

PD: Do you know the typical thresholds for when the P Value becomes significant for batter versus pitcher match ups? It’s dependent upon the current results wouldn’t a .050 BA over 50 or 100 PA for example be enough to say that a certain batter does not bat as well against a pitcher has he would on average?
Keith Law: It’s never. The best answer is never. I’m amazed by how often people want to come up with some number where the data are meaningful. If a batter faced the same pitcher every day for a year, maybe we could talk.

Dr. Bob: When my boys played in Little League, I noticed boys who were better than the others not be better a couple of years later. Some develop earlier than others. That must make scouting high school players tough. Some may have already peaked.
Keith Law: It’s why I ignore any list that pretends to rank high school prospects for any draft beyond the current cycle. Remember how Drew Ward was supposed to be the best player in his class? He ended up a bad pick in the third round. He was 16 as a high school freshman and huge for his age. When the other players caught up physically it turned out that had been his only advantage.

jimmyb: I know you have nothing to do with the selection of ads on the Baseball Tonight podcast, but do you find it odd (or perhaps, concerning) that ESPN is running ads for Juul, given the issues associated with specifically targeting minors?
Keith Law: I don’t actually know what that is.

Fred: Do Execs ever ask you your opinions on prospects in other orgs?
Keith Law: Of course. Now, whether they take those opinions seriously is another question…

JR: You think we get a WS rematch? I think we do.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s my prediction. Dodgers in 6, Astros in 6. I think I’d rather see Boston get there from the AL for a different mix of players (especially getting Mookie Betts on TV all those games), and of course Milwaukee making it for the second time in franchise history (first in 35 years) would be an amazing story, but I don’t think that happens.

Chris: On a Prospects Live podcast, you were singled out as someone who was down on Andres Gimenez hitting ability because you hadn’t seen him in a while. Has he improved or is he still not an impact bat?
Keith Law: Sounds like a mistake. I just saw him this summer.

andy: If the Rockies make an earnest attempt to extend Arenado and he says no and chooses to enter the year without an extension in place, what would you do were you in Bridich’s shoes? Would you trade him or ‘go for it’ with him on an expiring deal, knowing you might end up losing him for just a comp pick?
Keith Law: No, I’d trade him. You’re talking about a team that barely made the playoffs this year – the odds of them doing so again aren’t so high that I’d value retaining him knowing we might only get that draft pick.

Steve: I realize “fairness” isn’t exactly the best word, so I’ll try this instead. Do you think the MLB postseason offers the best possible outcomes? So many games played for a potential one and done or blip over a 5 game series seems, well, unfair, especially given that the performance is used as a sign of success. Do you think there’s a may to make the postseason more meritocratic?
Keith Law: I don’t, nor do I think that’s the point. We can argue over who’s the best team after the regular season. The postseason is just a tournament for a trophy. It’ll never determine who’s best – it determines who gets the trophy. I think most fans are good with this split, as am I.

Michael K : Hi Keith. I’m a huge fan of the Giants. I haven’t heard any real rumors of who they are talking to regarding their open GM/Head of Baseball ops. Have you?
Keith Law: Not many. One name I did hear was Jason McLeod of the Cubs, who’d be excellent and has the background from working there and in Boston, in scouting and player development for two orgs with strong analytics departments. I haven’t checked to see if there’s anything to it, but he’s the right prototype for the Giants, who have been and should commit to remaining a strong scouting organization.

Deke: Have you heard of CBD gummies? They’re apparently gaining in popularity as a knockoff anxiety helper. Any opinion?
Keith Law: Heard of, there’s a little evidence that they work (it’s extremely hard to research anything related to marijuana because we live in Gilead), but I haven’t tried them.

Matt: A bit of a random question here, but do older pitchers tend to decline gradually or fall off cliffs without warning? The impetus for the question is Justin Verlander, who’s pitching as well as he ever has, but is nearly 36. I can’t help but continually worry that the next start is going to be the one where the wheels come off. Is this rational?
Keith Law: It’s rational, but also a bit irrational in that you should appreciate what he is right now in the present. We all go into that great good night eventually.

Ron: Keith- The talk going around that the Twins are looking at Ross and DeRosa just has to be that, right? I mean come on. Some younger guy with some experience and an analytical approach and rapport with the young players is needed. I hope Falvey and Levine are thinking the latter and not the former. Geeesh!
Keith Law: Again, still don’t understand the fixation with guys who’ve never managed. You have at least 120 guys managing in full-season minor leagues every year. Not one of them is qualified to even interview ahead of two guys who talk real good but have never so much as run a coat check stand?

Chuck: What is the Orioles problem with developing pitchers?
Keith Law: They have a poor track record of keeping them healthy. Getting at the root cause of that would require knowledge and access I do not have, but if I were GM there it would be my first priority, because they have good arms on the way again.

Matthew: You mentioned that Garrett Hampson might not have enough power to be an MLB regular. Do you see Myles Straw in the same light?
Keith Law: I do.

andy: How close is Brendan Rodgers to being ready? Do you think he could take DJ Lemahieu’s job starting next year?
Keith Law: I do.

Skippy : Cardinals just announced bringing Wainwright back for 2019 and Mo’s statement seems to indicate it will be pretty heavy incentive laden. Seems like a solid move? When he came back and said he actually felt healthy his k/9 and BB/9 were great. Cardinals probably didn’t *need* to bring him back but a small risk type scenario?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m good with that. Low money, I presume, good for the clubhouse, good for the fans, nice tip of the cap to a player who’s been with the org since his debut.

Harvey: Voter fraud goes both ways. The motor voter laws in CA led to thousands of illegals being registered to vote when they picked up their drivers licenses. Both parties try to cheat their way to victory.
Keith Law: That’s not true. Also, can you get the FOH with that bothsidesism? Right now, the Republican candidate for Governor in Georgia is personally obstructing over 50,000 new voter registrations to improve his odds of winning. That is the problem TODAY. Do not give me your fetid bullshit about something that might have happened a year ago somewhere else. We solve today’s problem today. You see another problem? Good. Put it on the fucking list.

David: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats! Is Muncy’s bat worth moving Bellinger (and his strong defense) off of first to play center? Max seems adequate over there, but just curious your thoughts on the trade-offs.
Keith Law: No. I’m betting the under on Muncy repeating this next year.

DraftNut: Would draft pick trading help prevent tanking or encourage it?
Keith Law: I think it’ll help prevent it.

Lyle: The biggest voter suppression of all is closed primaries. If the parties want to have closed primaries, they should pay for them themselves. Otherwise, taxpaying voters should be allowed to vote.
Keith Law: I agree with that.

Mikey: Any chance Jake Locker could come back and play or has it been too long?
Keith Law: He has expressed zero interest in returning to baseball.

Brett: What are your thoughts on Corbin Burnes’s future with the Brewers? Does he end up as a starter next year? Can he be a No. 2 guy in their rotation? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Yes to both questions.

Jd: I saw on deadspin that nobody looked good (including the heckler) in the Osuna incident. It feels fair game to rip a guy for beating his wife but are their limits other than the obvious about using bad language at the ballpark?
Keith Law: I don’t see why that’s not fair game and agree on the language used (you can easily be surrounded by kids there).

Re: Trading Ender: I understand the reasoning, but it seems hard to make the case if they don’t have a valid replacement. Say they don’t resign Markakis or anyone in FA. Then in the summer Pache is ready. I would much rather have an OF of Acuña, Pache, Ender than Acuña, Pache, Preston Tucker/Duvall. It only makes sense to me if they for sure have a For sure everyday LF/RF
Keith Law: I feel good about Anthopoulos finding a short-term replacement for Markakis.

Boa T.: I take it you don’t respect those that believe in God when you refer to it as “fantasies”
Keith Law: I referred to creationism and intelligent design as fantasies, because they are. We know that evolution happened and continues to happen, because we see it, and we are surrounded by evidence supporting it. You can “take it” however you want, but you’re just being an idiot here.

Pei: What are your thoughts on the analyses that suggest framing is worth as much as 20 runs above/below average in a single season, and therefore much more valuable of a skill than blocking/throwing? (obviously still nebulous about game calling)
Keith Law: Seems entirely valid, although I dislike that this is seen as a skill, and not stealing strikes from incompetent or merely incapable umpires.

Brett: Melania Trump recently said that she is the “most bullied person in the world.” [cleans spit-out coffee of desk]. Thoughts on who would be number 2?
Keith Law: How many people referred to her predecessor as FLOTUS as a man, or a simian, or some other animal on a regular basis?

Grover: juul is an e-cigarette I belive
Keith Law: Thank you. I wouldn’t read an ad for that, at least.

Grover: Thoughts on the Dodgers front office legal troubles?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything more than you guys do from the SI report and now the Daily Beast report on them failing to report a sexual assault allegation to MLB, but … not great, Bob.

Grover: If a team owner asked to meet with you to discuss a front office position, and asked to meet at an Olive Garden, do you immediately remove your name from consideration?
Keith Law: That’s a huge red flag for me.

John: Do you think it would help with getting rid of mascots and offensive names if writers would stop using them and instead defer to the city? Seems like outta sight outta mind might help those that can’t grasp institutional racism…
Keith Law: Maybe. Then again, I haven’t referred to the team in Cleveland by name in over a decade, and it hasn’t made a bit of difference.

Brady: You’ve given credit to a few of the ‘no-experience’ managers noting they had a strong support system from the front office and analytics team. Do you think some of these front offices want a manager that they can control, ie) have a say in making lineups, who plays where, how to use the bullpen, etc.? I’m not saying that’s right, but is it easier to accomplish that with someone who’s not had control over all the on-field decision making before?
Keith Law: Why not both? Why not hire someone with the experience to make better battlefield decisions and who’s also happy to work with R&D before and between games?

Jackie: You want voter suppression? 3 million Puerto Ricans get zero senators, 35 million Californians get two senators, and 1.5 million Dakotans get four senators. That’s how you get Kavanaughed.
Keith Law: And 700,000 residents of Washington DC, almost half of them African-American, get zero voting representation in Congress. And I think we know why.

Pat D: My sister just gave birth to her fourth child, second son. He has an older brother who is not quite 2. When should I start getting them to play baseball?
Keith Law: You haven’t started yet?

DEF: Board game question for you: Our family loves to play games, but we’re having a hard time coming up with a game that the entire family can play: my 10 year-old is handling fairly complex games pretty easily, but my 7 year old is developmentally delayed – he’s tired of snakes and ladders and candyland and the like. Got any recommendations for something with a little bit of depth that is also pretty simple/straightforward?
Keith Law: More randomness tends to mean more skill levels can play. I don’t know where your 7-year-old might fall on the skill scale, but games I call low complexity or ‘gateway’ games might be perfect – Ticket to Ride is one that’s easy to learn, has some light strategy, but can still entertain adults and older kids.

Nelson: Do you drink flavored seltzer? And if so, are you worried about the report that came out on Lacroix and some of the ingredients it contains?
Keith Law: I don’t. I drink plain sparkling water. The report and lawsuit are basically just chemophobia in a nice suit, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m heading to Arizona next week and will be at games Monday through Friday, so I don’t know when the next chat will be, but I do expect to have at least two updates while I’m there for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions!

Sabrina.

I’ve said a few times that I’ve never been a fan of comic books, neither as a kid even when I had friends who liked them nor as an adult when longer versions of these, often called graphic novels, have crossed over somewhat into the mainstream and even earned critical acclaim. Alan Moore’s Watchmen is often cited as the greatest or one of the greatest graphic novels ever published, but I found it thin, clichéd, and very short on plot. The form itself isn’t conducive to great storytelling because so much real estate is dedicated to the images that pushing a narrative forward becomes secondary to the artwork, and creating a plot worthy of the term “novel” would require several hundred more pages and, I imagine, a substantial amount of additional work for the artist.

So when Nick Drnaso’s Sabrina showed up on the longlist for this year’s Man Booker Prize, becoming the first graphic novel to earn the honor, my immediate question was whether the work was worthy as a novel, or simply there because of the novelty of the format. (It didn’t make the six-title shortlist, announced a few weeks ago; this year’s winner will be announced next Tuesday.) I can at least say, however, that Sabrina uses the graphic novel’s form to enhance the underlying story, adding to the senses of dread, suspense, and isolation that affect its central characters, while also creating a jarring sensation of unease as Drnaso switches settings without visual or textual warnings. The story itself is also different, with three interlocking narratives stemming from a single source, telling a contemporary tale of our disastrous modern media environment and how it affects the psyches of vulnerable people.

Sabrina herself only appears in a few panels at the start of the book; her disappearance and the discovery of her murder at the hands of a stranger set off the three main threads of the plot. Her boyfriend Teddy, devastated and unmoored by these events, goes to stay with his friend Calvin, an Air Force serviceman stationed in Colorado who works a job that is socially and emotionally isolating, while Sabrina’s sister Sandra is left to try to cope with her loss and the detritus of Teddy’s life with her sister. After Sabrina’s death is discovered and someone leaks video the killer recorded of her murder (never shown or described in much detail, but implied to be highly graphic), the story becomes the focus of American news outlets for several days, after which the mainstream media moves on to the next murder, allowing conspiracy theorists to step in, claiming the murder was staged as a false flag event and that the three protagonists of the book are actually crisis actors. Teddy ends up listening to an Alex Jones clone on the radio while he’s holed up in Calvin’s house, refusing to leave, even though doing so furthers his isolation and essentially claims his grief is fraudulent, while Calvin and Sandra are doxxed and harassed by delusional randos (including a stand-in for the fired FAU professor James Tracy, himself a Sandy Hook hoaxer).

There’s more narrative depth here than you’d find in a short story, albeit probably less than you’d get even in a 200-page novel; there is only so much a writer-artist can do with the aforementioned problem of visual real estate. Drnaso compensates brilliantly by packing subtext into many panels, with or without dialogue, that support that ongoing sense of unease or psychological imbalance. When the characters don’t feel ‘right,’ it’s immediately apparent in the panels – with their facial expressions or posture, with the angles from which Drnaso depicts them, and even sometimes with his use of lighter or darker shading in specific panels.

Sabrina probably also benefits in the minds of critics and readers for how of the moment the story is. We are inundated with fake or slanted news reports from sources outside the mainstream who have gamed various algorithms to appear higher on social media feeds or search engine results – I’ve seen links to Daily Caller and Gateway Pundit, both alt-right blogs with minimal editorial controls or regard for veracity in their stories, appear in the first ten results of Google searches – and conspiracy theories follow every tragedy that hits the news. The effects of this, itself an extension of our increased alienation from each other as we spend more time online and less in the real world, on something as difficult and fundamental as grief, especially when processing the horrible and sudden death of a loved one, are enough fodder for a book this length and then some. Drnaso has taken a critical, timely subject, and presented it in a new way, both with his art and with his storycraft, to produce a work that is worthy of the praise it’s received.

Next up: I’m reading an Agatha Christie novel before diving into Vernor Vinge’s mammoth Hugo-winning novel A Deepness in the Sky.