By now you’ve probably seen my annual breakdown of the All-Star rosters. If you’re here, you probably already know that I think the All-Star Game is just a marketing event and I haven’t watched it in 2003, so the outrage in the article is just for fun. The Futures Game is where the action is, at least to me. Anyway, the Conversation below that article has been insane.
I’ll be on ESPNEWS this afternoon, probably around 3:30 pm, but we’re taping just before the show starts so that time may change. I’ll also be on our St. Louis affiliate at 11:20ish CDT today, and on the Brian Kenny Show at some point this evening (also taping before it starts, so I can watch Team USA tonight).
You can download my Friday hit on the V Show in two parts here and here. My Friday night hit with Seth Everett on our NYC affiliate is here.
Too bad Zimmerman is the only Nats player worth a damn because it bumps Mark Reynolds. I would love to see Reynolds in the Home Run Derby.
The people commenting on the ESPN post are the kind of people who think that Joe Morgan is a source of brilliant insight because he played in the Major Leagues.
Keith,
Great job with the All-Star Roster. Thanks for pointing out Matt Kemp is one of the premier players in the NL, even though Joe hasn’t figured that out yet.
Kemp deserves to start. He is one of the top 3 NL outfielders. Sadly, he probably won’t even get in via the vote.
Justin: There’s an argument for Dunn over Zimmerman although the whole one-player-per-team rule makes it so tough to actually bring the 33. Or the 31 best and Ryan Howard and Jason Marquis. Luckily its not like the game determines who gets home field in the World Series.
“bring the 33 *best* …”
Sarcasm ruined by a lack of proofreading.
Justin- if I’m not mistaken Reynolds can still participate in the HR Derby. I don’t think you have to be an all-star to participate.
Just a thought, but what about Rasmus for the ASG? Fangraphs has him as the 12th best player (and 5th best OF) in the NL this year.
Pena over Morneau? I used to think the “Keith Law hates the Twins” bandwagon was stupid. Morneau and Pena’s UZR/150 are both negative, Pena has more errors, etc. Morneau has him beat in AVG, OBP, and slugging. Morneau has him beat in RC and wOBA. Whatever edge Pena hs because he’s a “slick fielding” first baseman is entirely negated by Morneau’s bat. I know the Twins don’t do the sabermetrics the proper due, but this thinly veiled shot at them, again, is sad.
Buster had Rasmus for his All Star team….
Keith you’re taking a healthy dose of criticism from Cardinals fans for calling Ryan Franklin “not that good” today, including by Bernie Miklasz who said this:
“Look, I like and respect Keith Law a lot…
I appreciate his work.
But in this one, he’s really off base.
He said of Franklin in the interview “He’s not that good.”
based on what?
20 for 21 in saves
lowest ERA by a NL reliever 0.84
third-lowest BR/9 rate by an NL reliever
No. 4 among NL relievers in Expected Wins (WXLR, found at Baseball Prospectus).
No. 1 among NL relievers in pitching runs created (Hardball Times)
His WPA (win probability added) is the 4th-best among NL relievers.
When i checked late last week, he had the best VORP among NL relievers (baseball prospectus).
Yes, he’s benefited from some luck; his Fielding Independent ERA is 3.18. Means his actual ERA is artificially low to some extent. But that’s just one thing we can pick at.
The positives — Franklin’s qualifications — are overwhelming.
-B ”
Link: http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=640522
HOW COULD YOU LEAVE OFF BRETT GARDNER NO ONE IS SCRAPPIER IN MAJORE LEAGS YOU SUCK LAW
was it necessary to take such a pejorative tone in that column? people vote for their favorite players. it’s an exhibition game, who gives a damn if they’re the “best” in some objective sense.
Uhh, John, if you hadn’t noticed, Klaw takes pleasure from being the “Bad Boy of MLB Scouting-and-Objective-Data-Based Analysis”.
right. usually he doesn’t make himself look like an asshat playing devil’s advocate though
No to Hawpe because of his defense but yes to Damon? Factor in defense and Cruz is better than Damon…
KLAW you had better watch out. The Franklin supporters are going to break out the pitch forks soon.
“was it necessary to take such a pejorative tone in that column? people vote for their favorite players. it’s an exhibition game, who gives a damn if they’re the “best” in some objective sense.”
1. Its not an exhibition game. It hasn’t been since they decided it should determine home field.
2. Even if it were still an exhibition, as long as people give ASG appearances weight when considering things like HoF voting, it matters enough to debate.
Keith (or anyone else)- What was the story with the umpire in today’s Yanks-Jays game who allegedly blew the Jeter steal of third in the 1st telling the crew chief to handle the media after the game? It was a day game so I missed it, but the quotes after-the-fact from both Jeter and the crew chief were, um, less than inspiring. I thought the NBA season just ended?
That’s disappointing. I had some respect for Bernie before reading that, but the statistical illiteracy there is appalling. Oh, boy, he’s 20 for 21 in saves! He ranks really highly in stats that don’t factor out defense/hit luck! And stats that give him credit for how his manager used him! To say nothing of the willingness to ignore his entire pre-2009 body of work.
I am shocked to read that a writer from espn is ok with papelbon being on the al all star team but has a huge problem with franklin being on the nl team.
papelbon era 1.75,saves 20, so 35, whip 1.33
franklin era 0.84, saves 20, so 24, whip 0.84
I am shocked to read that another idiot came here to comment without reading the actual article in question, where I left Papelbon off my AL All-Star roster.
No, wait, I’m not shocked at all.
but yet you failed to take papelbon to task, as you did with franklin, with relatively the same stats this season. this is the 2009 all star game correct not all-time
Papelbon 2009 pLI 2.38 (1st in the majors)
Franklin 2009 pLI 1.69 (tied for 20th)
Both have performed at basically the same level, but Papelbon has done it in much higher leveraged situations which makes him inherently more valuable and, therefore, a less horrible pick. It’s also easy to give the players/manager a bit of a pass on Papelbon because of the history of dominance. The only reputation that Franklin has is as a horrible starter and a servicable middle reliever.
At this time last year, I remember Keith writing something to the effect of (and I paraphrase because I don’t have time to find the article right now): “Ryan Ludwick is a half-year wonder who does not belong on the All Star Team.” His comment was followed up with similar outrage from St. Louis fans. How’s Ludwick and his 94 OPS+ treating you guys this year.
If you bother to read the methodology and not just the team he chose, you might get why Keith included players like Cole Hamels and not Ryan Franklin.
Neyer brought up a good point yesterday, and it upsets me that I missed it based on how awesome he’s been for my fantasy teams: No love for Yovani Gallardo?
Keith, to be fair to Bernie, you yourself used pitcher VORP in a chat the other day making the case for Haren over Lincecum this year, even though Haren has an enormous hit advantage.
I used pitcher VORP in that case just to argue that Haren was in the discussion with Lincecum – someone had said there was no one close to Lincecum.
I have no argument with Gallardo. He was on the original list of pitchers I put on the NL team, about 16 guys in total.
Keith, by your logic we should rename the 2009 all star teams the 2000-2009 all star teams. Seeing as past performance means so much to you.
I personally think the all star game needs to feature this years best players so far without regard to past performance with the exception of who the fans vote in.
I personally think the all star game needs to feature this years best players so far without regard to past performance with the exception of who the fans vote in.
Pepe, you are entitled to feel that way, but it’s not a rule, and I don’t see the sense in your position. If Pujols slumps next spring and is hitting .270/.340/.440 at the All-Star Break, are you going to be okay with his omission from the All-Star Game because it’s all about current-year performance?
Who do you identify more with the term All-Star?
a) Jason Marquis
b) Tim Wakefield
c) Ryan Franklin
d) Manny Ramirez
Usually you’d get angry Mets fans for not including Santana, but we’re all so preoccupied with how much our team sucks that we don’t care. (Maybe Mets fans are complaining, I stopped reading the comments on Keith’s column after about 20 cause my head nearly exploded)
See how angry Cards fans are when Franklin’s luck runs out. I find it hard to believe his BABIP will be .200 at season’s end.
Hey would this count as a Big Game for Javy ‘Big Game’ Vazquez? Maybe they asked Ozzie Guillen rather than consulted ‘advanced’ stats?
I still don’t get how a guy who gets a 50 match ban being an idiot deserves more – to parallel if he falls off his motor bike wheelying and misses 50 we’d call him a clown ditto taking easily detected substances. (BTW if Man’ Ram can rehab in minor leagues where do minor league players rehab?)
Its not a sanctimony point as after all no profession is full of altruistic and fair minded people who don’t ever step over anyone and try to get on by talent and commitment alone – least of all Newspaper journalism.
It’s not as though the players treat bans as a wasting energy speeding ticket given their lies and obfuscations they are not exactly proud of what they did – arguably a circular one with the level of media sanctimony but a point nonetheless.
I dont expect more from Manny but like getting caught browsing the internet at work no matter what else you do it counts against (at least with bad employers) even if for a half season last year you were the story in baseball and defined All Star.
Its almost like there are two KLaws the calm succinct well argued one one you see on TV and the snarky bite back succinct well argued one in feedback, All Star roster pieces and chats.
I have assumed after this and as I actually added to the idiotage below your ESPN piece that the 2nd $5 of my $10 donation is now used….
Any insight as to why you picked others from the list of 16 over Yovani? I’m specifically looking at Jurrjens and Ubaldo. I realize this is just quibbling, but I am a bit curious.
Looks like Mr. Law has a problem accepting criticism. Deleting posts that disagree with him and now adding Ludwick to his oh-so-intelligent list of “shouldn’t be all-stars” only because Cardinals fans have ripped him for his idiocy over his Franklin comments.
The fact that he doesn’t see the blatant hypocrisy in his own articles is simply stunning. Condemning the Franklin selection as only encouraging PED use then proceeding to basically call Manny a god among men and accusing anyone of disagreeing with him as being on a “high horse” (again, even though he just ripped Franklin over the very same thing) was particularly hilarious. The lesson here from Mr. Law appears to be: If your a relative no-name closer, PED use is despicable. If your a famous power-hitter whom Mr. Law has a crush on, PED use is perfectly acceptable.
Keith, I suggest you take your own advice and “get off your high horse.”
Chris: I have only deleted posts (actually, refused to clear from moderation) that directly insulted me. That’s a long-standing policy on this site.
And you completely missed the point of my Franklin/PED comments. I didn’t rip him. I pointed out the different treatment he has received from that doled out to Manny this spring. It’s not that hard to understand.
So Keith is this the 2009 allstar game or the previous year allstar game? The selection is based on this years stats and performance not their past, I will agree with ur comments on Ryan Howard but hey he has had some great years so according to your thoughts he is an allstar…and so is matt holiday and David ortiz bc they have always been great. Franklin is an allstar and deserves it… Ur just one of those guys trying to make a name for yourself bc no one has heard of u before… Get a life
Chris: I promise if you go back and read some of Keith’s older articles/chats, you’ll realize the PED comment is a shot at fringe baseball fans and the MSM, not Franklin. Same thing would have been said about Guillermo Mota or any other non-Cardinal who made the ASG and whose PED admissions / test failures have been ignored due to their lack of SportsCenter lead name status.
Chris:
Keith didn’t “add” Ludwick to the list of “1st-half all stars that don’t deserve to be there”…he ripped the decision the day it was made LAST YEAR, saying he had a great and most likely lucky 1st half.
Is Kevin/deckacards posting on here? Because I’d love to make some sort of bet on whether Franklin can continue “inducing” hitters into a .172 batting average against.
(But seriously, I do hope he follows along here. The best way to start the conversion process is using some “pretend” stat to predict the future and then have it pan out like you said it would. Thing is, Franklin is having a solid year. Very good BB rate and his SO and GB rates are both above average (although not elite by any means). Its not an insult to say the guy isn’t going to maintain a sub-1.00 ERA and WHIP and its not something personal against Franklin or the Cardinals or Cardinals fans. Its just forecasting based on the fact that very few relievers maintain that level over 6 months and those who do usually have super-elite peripherals. Stats, as long as you’re not cherry-picking based on the argument, really can’t have a bias. If I say Jeter’s defense* has tangibly improved using +/- as my support** then in 2010 he regresses back to where he’s been and in 2010 I argue “no, that’s wrong, I can see he’s still good”, I’m a hypocrite. Its all tangible here, Kevin.)
* Anecdotally, it does seem like Jeter is getting to more balls but he doesn’t appear any quicker. Better positioning? Less GB up the middle because Wang is giving up ropes instead?
** Keith: Longer question for another time, likely when I eventually corner you in Whole Foods or something, but is +/- a really, really basic version of some of the more indepth systems that teams have internally (which would factor hit speed/trajectory, fielder start/end point)?
Alright, I can accept the explanation that you weren’t trying to target Franklin over the PED issue. Fair enough. However, I fail to see how placing Manny in the ASG is any less encouragement for the use of PEDs. True, there has been disproportionate attention paid to Manny compared to the list of other users. However, Manny receives a disproportionate amount of attention for just about everything, both good and bad (as do other star players). Obviously one of the biggest names in baseball testing positive is going to get more attention than a relative no-name testing positive. If Manny can accept all the glory for his success, he can accept all the heat for his failures. There’s nothing unfair about that.
Generally, I say the All-Star game is an exhibition for the fans to see the guys they want to see, so whatever the fans vote for is who should be there (starting, at least). Obviously, this thought is ruined by the whole “now it counts” bullshit, but what can you do? I generally disagree with Keith on including past performance and star power, but that’s just a personal thing, and I understand his perspective. My feeling is the All-Star game is an opportunity to celebrate the stars of that year, whether or not it was a fluke. Yes, you may have a “watered down” crop, but personally, that’s how I vote. Again, though, I believe the fans should decide if we are touting it as an exhibition, which we sort of are. Who really knows what it is?
I love that KLaw is at least willing to say who he would take off in order to add guys. Every year, you have people touting their “5 biggest snubs”, without saying who they would take off to include those guys. Often, those guys are having good years, but don’t deserve it. Sometimes, they do, but “analysts” are afraid to lose a source and upset anyone they possibly call out.
RE: Franklin/Manny/PEDs
Let’s not forget, Franklin is a hard working guy who was just trying to help his team!
Manny is an ignorant jerk who squanders his talent and was too lazy to work hard enough to succeed!
The ASG managers should put the players on the field (outside of voted in starters) who offer their league the best chance of winning. Doesn’t every team that *thinks* they have a chance of going to thw World Series want this? That’s why guys like Manny should be in…because Manny in the NL lineup gives the NL the best chance of winning and securing the home field advantage.
Maybe Charlie Manuel has a plan for Ryan Howard’s role, like a late inning pinch hitter when they need a homer or something. I have no idea. But if he doesn’t have a plan in place, does he really think that having a fourth 1B who doesn’t hit his weight give him his best chance at winning? Shouldn’t he be trying to win? Isn’t it an obligation to the NL?
Do other manager’s, say Joe Torre, get pissed when the best team isn’t assembled? I mean, ultimately this is affecting his Dodgers because they have a good chance of being in the WS and losing home field because of poor AS roster selection. Do guys like Torre get pissed, or do they look the other way because they’ve given that favor to their players in the past as well?
@Chris
“However, I fail to see how placing Manny in the ASG is any less encouragement for the use of PEDs. ”
Tony LaRussa was arrested in March of 2007 for DWI. He managed the NL team in July 2007 at the ASG. Are you saying that encourages drunk driving?
Josh,
I’d imagine Joe Torre (like Charlie Manuel and other managers) probably thinks Ryan Howard is one of the best players in the NL/MLB because of his RBI totals. I’m sure nepotism is also a tacitly accepted part of the ASG as well which is why most folks don’t get up in arms about it.
Not saying any of this is right, just my interpretation of the situation.
Chuck’s point on LaRussa is also very valid. The level of outrage over PED use juxtaposed with the lack of outrage over DUI when considering the potential outcomes of both is pretty interesting / embarrassing.
And Bernie fires back!
“So, from what I can tell, Keith is nailing Franklin on two things:
1. contact rate
2. career performance until this year.
Contact rate is a fine metric to examine if you are trying to project performance into the future, or if you are trying to decide whether you should sign a pitcher, or whether you should trade for a pitcher, or maybe if you should draft a guy. I have no idea what it has to do with choosing an All-Star squad. Obviously, plenty of guys have a better swing/miss rate than Franklin. And after perusing the list of those that do have a better rate, I’d have to say I’d be reluctant to give them the baseball with something on the line. P.J. Walters gets more swings-and-misses, for example. Good for him.
Past performance … scratching my head on this one. If I were to try to argue that Franklin should be on the 2006 All-Star team, yes, Keith Law would be 100 percent correct in his objection. But this is 2009. I understand that past performance can be relevant when we’re talking about iconic players; their body of work does give them the benefit of the doubt in toss-up decisions.
Given his BABIP and FIP, Franklin may regress in the 2nd half. No question. But again: I’m not sure what second-half projection has to do with making picks based on first-half performance. And if Law is arguing that they should choose more starters and fewer closers, I understand his complaint, but that’s a separate discussion. Because they do choose closers, five of them on each squad. And Franklin has been one of the five best in the NL based on any reasonable standard.
Again: I like and respect Keith. I have defended him aggressively in this market. We happen to disagree. Big deal. If he can’t handle that, then it’s unfortunate. But that’s one of the great things about baseball; we’ve been debating these type of things for more than a 100 years. There’s no need to get personal.
-B ”
Does it make me a bad person for facilitating this kerfuffle?
Favoritism is absolutely a factor when managers are selecting their teams. (Nepotism is probably not the right word because it really means favoritism towards family members.) In 2006 Ozzie Guillen picked half of the reserves from his team.
Mangager selections are another reason why the “this time it counts” rule is stupid, depending on your valuation of home-field advantage. Either way the rule is dumb because if the game really counts, why pick teams in such an arbitrary way? I seriously doubt attempting to win the game factors in to player selection for the fans, players, or managers.
ASG selections as a criterion for the Hall of Fame is such a dumb methodology, that we should be spending our time convincing people such instead of wasting time worrying about them. Besides, do you really think the fate of Ryan Franklin or any other player’s HOF credentials rest on making this year’s game?
Immortals such as Paul Lo Duca, Mark Loretta and Placido Polanco have all started All-Star games in the last three years. What does that tell you? Getting seriously angry over All-Star selections is pointless. This isn’t the first time this has happened and it won’t be the last. Check out the ridiculousness from the 1988 game.
And while we’re at it, readers need to find better things to do with our time than facilitating WWE-esque smacktalk between sportswriters. Just about every Sportsnation chat includes a backhanded taunt to the chat host from another writer. At first, it was interesting to see their response, but now it’s quite obvious chatters won’t be satiated until they tear one of their colleagues apart. I’m pretty sure that’s not going to happen.
For those that think the ASG should only comprise of players that have put together a great first half numbers, are they proposing a second ASG at the end of the season for those that have had a great second half?
Keith is right that you have to take past performance and the current years’ numbers into account when making All-Star selections. If you make picks based purely on first-half numbers or “award them for first half-performance” you don’t take into account stastical outliers both positive and negative.
As Keith mentioned, people would expect Pujols to make the AS team next year if he had a poor second half, but somehow fans get offended if an analyst says their generally average player is having a solid, but fluky first half and doesn’t belong. Examples include Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth last year and Ryan Franklin this year. There are certainly many more. Based on career numbers after they retire, I would bet the house that Franklin, McLouth, and Ludwick would not be considered All-Star level players.
Let me give you an example of why the stats used to claim Franklin is an All-Star are misleading. As already mentioned Franklin has a rediculously low .214 BABIP. Meaning, his defense has been good and he has been getting lucky. Also the more important thing I see is Franklin has an off the charts high 99.2 (!) LOB%. League average for this year is around 73%. We shouldn’t award All-Star appearances for getting lucky. If Franklin has an unlucky inning tonight where he gives up 3ER in 1.0 IP, his ERA goes up to 1.63 and his overall numbers start to look a lot like Raphael Soriano. I don’t think anybody is claiming Raphael Soriano should be on the All-Star team.