Note that as of Monday, 12/31, I’ve moved the updated counts to a new thread.
UPDATED: Monday, 12/31, 10:45 am EST.
At this point, with at least 10% of the total ballots counted, I feel pretty comfortable calling Gossage’s election. It’s too soon for me to call Blyleven, Dawson, or Rice either way.
I’ve found or received 75 Hall of Fame ballots from official voters so far, and tallied up the results:
| TOTAL | 75 | Pct |
| Gossage | 68 | 91% |
| Blyleven | 52 | 69% |
| Dawson | 52 | 69% |
| Rice | 51 | 68% |
| Morris | 37 | 49% |
| Raines | 32 | 43% |
| McGwire | 20 | 27% |
| Smith | 21 | 28% |
| Trammell | 14 | 19% |
| John | 14 | 19% |
| Concepcion | 14 | 19% |
| Murphy | 11 | 15% |
| Parker | 7 | 9% |
| Mattingly | 3 | 4% |
| Rose (write-in) | 2 | 3% |
| Baines | 1 | 1% |
If you find another ballot, post the link in the comments below and I’ll update the tally as needed.
Taylor – got it now, as well as Conlin’s (posted today, usual suspects, no Raines). … James, I’m with you. Dawson wouldn’t bother me that much, although I would never vote for him. Rice would be a minor disgrace.
Interesting stuff so far. I Think It’s very likely Goose finally goes to Cooperstown. Last year I calculated 132 Total ballots and goose had over 82 percent of the vote. I think the 90 percent you have him running at the moment probably does make him a lock but still would be mildly surprised to see him clear 80 percent.
I also think it’s really kind of odd that Sutter got in at all, let alone before Gossage.
Sutter: 1042.1 IP — 7.6 H/9 — 2.7 BB/9 — 7.4 K/9 — 300 S — 512 GF — 136 ERA+ — 59.1 WARP3
Gossage: 1809.1 IP — 7.4 H/9 — 3.6 BB/9 — 7.5 K/9 — 310 S — 681 GF — 126 ERA+ — 90.0 WARP3
Sutter’s adjusted ERA is about 10% better, and he walked about 1 fewer batter per 9, but the Goose logged almost 800 more innings and finished out about 170 more games in his career. Puzzling.
Keith, I wonder if we can trust these vote totals to be representative of the overall voting body with the BBWAA. Ninety percent for Gossage is very high based on past votes. It seems to me that anyone responding to Keith’s request, or any reporter who is posting his ballot online, is probably a bit more Internet savvy than the overall voting membership, and thus might be a bit more enlightened. That said, Gossage only missed by a few votes last year, so the 90% number probably does mean the Goose will make it. I’m happy to see Rice falling short in this poll, but once again, similar to what I said about Gossage, I’m sure Rice will pull more votes from some of the Paleolithic reporters, which means his final numbers will be a bit higher. Raines’ final vote tally will also probably be a bit lower.
If you don’t have, Bill Conlin votes for:
John, Gossage, Smith, Blyleven, Morris, Dawson and Rice.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/columnists/20071227_Bill_Conlin___No_steroid_taint_on_this_years_Hall_ballot.html
Mike – Got Conlin, thanks. I think there are about a half-dozen out there that I don’t have, based on what I’ve seen from Repoz and some other counters. Also, I think it’s too soon to say anything about the bias of my sample. I have made a concerted effort to get ballots from older voters, although I’m stuck when it comes to retired voters. I may have a bit of an NL slant, but even so, until we compare my results to the actual voting results, I don’t think we really know how my sample skews.
Tangotiger – I promised email respondents anonymity. Sorry.
Any idea why there’s always an idiot voter or two who casts a vote for–oh, I don’t know–Jay Buhner or Dante Bichette? Are these voters typically home team fans voting for their home team players? Are they just looking to make a statement, such as, “Jay Buhner might not have been a HOFer but he was a fine, fine player and my vote shows the world this”?
A bit late to the game here on the Morris argument, but to Bob the Jack Morris advocate, pointing to his postseason statistics is a bit of a double-edged sword. He won a World Series ring with the Blue Jays in spite of how he performed in the postseason, when he absolutely tanked and tallied three of the four losses the Jays mounted in the postseason in 1992 (they weren’t cheap losses, either – he got shelled).
Overall in the postseason, he managed a 7-4 mark with a 3.80 ERA. Not quite the big money pitcher that he’s often made out to be, his Game 7 gem notwithstanding.
You know, the more I think about it, Jim Rice is kind of like the position player equivalent to Sandy Koufax. Koufax was a good but not great pitcher for the first half of his career, then put up 5 (some argue 6) great seasons to end his career. But when you look past the outer layer, Koufax was largely a product of Dodger Stadium and the ridiculous pitching mound he had to work with. From ’62-’66, when he was at his best, his splits were pretty interesting
1962: 1.75 at Home, 3.53 Away
1963: 1.38 at Home, 2.31 Away
1964: 0.85 at Home, 2.93 Away
1965: 1.38 at Home, 2.72 Away
1966: 1.52 at Home, 1.96 Away
The league average ERA for those years
3.59
2.99
3.25
3.26
3.28
Should Sandy Koufax be a Hall of Famer? Most say yes without blinking, but I’m not so sure anymore.
Keith, no problem.
Perhaps at some point (or next year), you can flag those that were public from those that were private, and just release the public data.
Jon Heyman’s ballot. No words can describe some of his logic…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/12/28/daily.scoop/
James,
Koufax is a HOFer to me based on the level he achieved at his peak. I was too young to have seen him pitch, but I can see the numbers. Yes, I’d say his reputation is greater than the reality, meaning he’s overrated, but that also doesn’t mean he wasn’t worthy of the Hall. I think he is.
I generally think many HOFers are elected based on their peak values when they establish their greatness, not necessarily on their final numbers, even though that’s what the media often focuses on. What usually happens is a player will hang on long enough to compile what many view as the proper “counting” stats to make the Hall, which is how we end up with these rules for automatic Hall entry: 500 HRs, 3000 Hits, etc. There are certainly variations, meaning someone who put up excellent numbers at his peak, but wasn’t necessarily one of the all-time greats, will need the final counting stats to make the Hall. Others (and I think this is where Koufax calls) can make it because of what they achieved at their peak.
I understand the analogy to Rice and I think it’s a fair one, but where they differ is Koufax was a better (read: greater) pitcher than Rice was a hitter. Also, as you’ll see from your home-road splits on Koufax, he was still pitching very, very well on the road, beating the league ERA all five seasons. Rice, on the other hand, was not a very good hitter on the road. In fact, his career road stats are pretty mediocre for a supposed “feared” power-hitting OFer. Something like .275 BA, .330 OBP, and .450 SLG (off the top of my head, so I know I’m off by a few points there). If I was an opposing manager, I’d be much more concerned about facing Koufax on the road than facing Rice on the road!
The amazing thing about Koufax is he hadn’t even begun to slip. I’m not even sure he had hit his peak. His last season, indeed seasons, were his best, with his last being his very best, which makes me wonder about what might have been. His ERA+ the last five seasons, from 1962 forward, were: 141, 159, 187, 160 and 190. He got better every year, with the exception of 1965 when he “slipped” to 160, although set a then-MLB record for strike outs with 382. He then “rebounded” to a 190 ERA+ and retired, supposedly because he was concerned he’d end up a cripple if he kept pitching. From what we know now, he wasn’t risking any more damage if he kept on playing, which means baseball fans missed a lot of great pitching from Koufax.
What kind of numbers would Koufax have put up in the next two seasons when pitching really dominated, and in paticular the year-of-the-pitcher in 1968 when Gibson posted his 1.12 ERA? We’ll never know, but it’s fun to think about.
I’m comfortable with Koufax in the Hall, just as I would have been comfortable with Pedro Martinez being elected to the Hall if he retired after 2003 with only 165 career wins. Everything Pedro has done since then, or will do the rest of his career, is not why he’ll be elected to the Hall. It was everything he did up until that point. He’s just padding now. Pedro, of course, was a much, much more dominant pitcher than even Koufax, although it’s still tough for me to compare 180 IPs with 300 IP.
Koufax, Yes. Rice, No!
I agree. I don’t really have a problem with Koufax being in. His case is tricky because he WAS the best pitcher in the league for 5 years, whereas Rice wasn’t even the best hitter in the league when he was supposedly “dominating for a decade”. I only really compared them because both had very steep splits, and both fall short of the big counting numbers. Like I said, I’m just not as sure as I used to be on Koufax, but there are far more egregious cases to be examined before worrying about SK.
You are impressed with those ERA+? How about:
219, 163, 243, 291, 189, 202, 210
That was Pedro.
Pedro From 1997-2003: 1408 IP, 2.20 ERA (lgERA = 4.69), 118W, 36L
Sandy From 1962-1966: 1377 IP, 1.95 ERA (lgERA = 3.26), 111W, 34L
Randy From 1997-2002: 1487 IP, 2.58 ERA (lgERA = 4.59), 120W, 42L
Randy compares to Koufax (and this even omits some of RJ’s great years). RJ’s K/BB was 2037/451 compared to Koufax’ 1444/316, which are both just above a 4.5 K/BB ratio.
And Koufax had his World Series. But Randy’s LCS and WS are almost as good.
As for all those “innings”, Koufax threw 114 pitches per start. That’s the same number Randy threw. The difference is that Koufax made 6 more starts per season (as did all the top starters of that era). Pedro’s at 104.
Randy and Sandy compare very favorably to each other at their peaks. Pedro was on another planet.
tangotiger, I’m well aware of Martinez’ ERA+ numbers, which is why I said Pedro was a “much, much more dominant pitcher.” Your defense of Martinez sounds almost reactionary, as if you thought I was insulting Martinez. If so, that was hardly the case.
and how about Maddux in his prime?
1992-1998: 166, 171, 271, 262, 162, 189, 187
1992-1998 WARP3: 11.6, 10.1, 15.0, 13.9, 11.4, 11.01, 11.7
1675.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 1286K/269BB (4.8:1)
Ridiculous numbers.
I’m in Rice’s corner.
The following is not my concept by any means, but a good argument in support of enshrinement.
Rice’s key stats: .298 BA 382 HR 1,451 RBI
.352 OBA .502 SLG
The only retired players to meet or exceed his statline are in the HOF (Williams, Ruth, Gehrig, Musial, Foxx, Aaron, Ott, Mays and Mantle).
Active players to meet or exceed his statline are likely all HOFers . . . depending on how the PED issue plays out in at least one instance (M.Ramirez, F.Thomas, A-Rod, Bonds).
In addition, 6 top five finishes in the MVP balloting with one win is significant. This clearly indicates that he was among the best and most respected players in his time.
There’s room in the hall for Rice as an exceptional average/on base/power guy of the 70s and 80s.
Bummy, you took the focus away from me/Jack Morris. Thank you
You’re welcome . . . take a breath.
Bummy,
I guess the only stat that Rice has (of the ones you listed) that jumps out at you is the .298 BA. And generally people aren’t inducted into the HOF for a good BA. His HR, RBI, OBP, and SLG aren’t impressive at all (relative to HOF) and letting him in opens the door to other very good, not great, players.
Keith,
Why do you hold Rice’s home/road splits as a negative? Isn’t is reasonable to say that a player who played his entire career in a home park like Fenway, adapted his game to that park as an advantage? A similar argument can be made for Jeter in the Toilet.
My theory is that those of us who saw Rice play think he is a HOF and those who did not think he isn’t. Do you know any of Rice’s contemporaries who think he falls short?
Steve
Steve: To me, a huge and persistent home-road split (career-long, not just a year or two) says to me that a player gained an artificial advantage from his environment, and we should not credit him extra for that. Jim Rice is Dante Bichette, with the added lore of the Red Sox’ uniform.
I do remember Rice as a good player, incidentally. I don’t remember thinking I was watching a superstar. I definitely got that feeling from Raines.
I’m too young to really comment on any of the players on the ballot earlier than McGwire, but thanks for doing this, Keith, and also for everybody that commented. It was very enlightening.
And you may have gotten this already, but Gerry Fraley of TSN had posted his ballot on Yahoo Sports. In alphabetical order: Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, Morris, Murphy, Parker, and Trammell.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjI1Cy163.gjPRNJHY0ERpwRvLYF?slug=insidedishwhosgettingthe&prov=tsn&type=lgns
Keith, I’m grateful for your running Hall of Fame tally, and I’m curious … Have you run the list in past years? I have a theory that lists like this are not particularly predictive on the marginal candidates — marginal in the minds of the voters, I mean — because the older voters don’t have columns and/or aren’t as likely to reveal their choices. Which would lead to candidates like Blyleven and Raines getting less support than these pre-election polls might suggest. -rob
Rob: I haven’t done it before, and one of my purposes this year was to run it and compare it to the official results to see what bias(es) we might find. I have been aggressive in reaching out to long-time badgeholders to try to achieve some balance in the poll, and of course we have public ballots from guys like Fraley (thanks ajnrules), who’s been a Hall voter for 15 years.
My concern is the dark matter of the voter pool: voters who are no longer active BBWAA members/badgeholders and who also didn’t publish their ballots anywhere. I don’t really have a way to identify or locate those voters, and if they have a different voting pattern than the pool of active voters, I’ll miss that.
Peter Gammons changed his mind and is voting for Raines:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/news/story?id=3169953
Anyone who thinks that Rice should be in the HOF should compare his numbers to Dewey Evans’. They had basically the same offensive #’s and Evans was a much better fielder. These are two examples of players who were very good but not HOF worthy (not to mention the fact that Evans had a higher OBP in his last year at age 39 in over 100 games than Rice had in any single season in his entire career).
John Harper published his HOF ballot today.
“I’m voting for five players: Goose Gossage, Jim Rice, Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven, and Dave Concepcion.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/12/30/2007-12-30_scott_boras_ego_has_yet_to_recover_from_.html?page=2
Interesting point about Evans, who I also like very much. Let’s take a look at the raw numbers first:
Avg. HR RBI OBA SLG
Rice .298 382 1451 .352 .502
Evans .272 385 1384 .370 .470
Now for the black ink of top 5 finishes in major categories. League leader status noted in parentheses:
Rice Evans
MVP top fives (wins) 6 (1) 2 (0)
All-Star selection 8 3
Gold gloves 0 8
Average top fives 4 0
OBA top fives 0 3 (1)
Slug avg top fives 5 (2) 3
OPS top fives 4 (1) 4 (2)
Runs top five 4 5 (1)
Hits top five 5 (1) 0
Total bases top five 5 (4) 3 (1)
HR top five 5 (3) 3 (1)
RBI top five 7 (2) 3
This information indicates that Rice and Evans have similar career totals, but due to Evans longer career. Rice was the more dominant player during his peak years. The MVP rankings and all-star selections speak to that. An overall assessment of Rice’s career warrants enshrinement.
We seem to debate quite a bit if the Rices, Dawsons, Murphys and Parkers belong in the HOF, with many analysts opining . . . “close, but no.”
A question for those more adept at stat analysis than me . . . are the hitters who broke in during the early to mid 70s approriately represented? Is there some statistical quirk where these players numbers don’t look as good compared to other eras?
It’s open to intepretation, but the only hitters from the Rice/Dawson, et al era in the HOF are Winfield, Schmidt, Brett, Yount, Murray, Molitor, Fisk and Carter (Reggie, Perez, Morgan, Bench broke in several years earlier).
Is that adequate representation?
Taylor: Thanks for that link. Harper’s reasoning on Raines (“I have a hard time thinking of him as a first-ballot Hall of Famer”) is specious, but I think we’ll see Raines pick up a few dozen votes next year for that very reason.
Worse, however, is the paragraph above Harper’s vote: “A handful of high school pitchers from the ’06 draft also are on the fast track, including Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek, son of former major leaguer Doug Drabek.”
Kyle Drabek blew his elbow out this spring. You’re not on the fast track if you’re still out recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Keith,
On Harper’s reasoning — agreed. Generally, his writing gives me the impression that he is lazy. In the case of that article, there is a smooth transition from one lazy comment (Drabek) to the next (Raines).
I read the transcript of your 12.28 ESPN chat over the weekend. I somehow missed your previously posted pork loin recipe. I don’t know if you have ever tried Giuliano Matarese’s recipe — pork tenderloin stuffed with figs, gorgonzola, etc., but its excellent. If not, google it.
Have a happy and safe new year.
Bummy,
Responding to one of your 12/29 posts (sorry, discovered this blog just today). You’ve picked some very selective stats to compare to a very select list of players. But it’s obvious that Rice doesn’t really belong with those players. I’ve added OPS+, Runs, and BB’s to your list (hope the column formatting works)
BA HR RBI OBP SLG OPS Runs BBs
Rice .298 382 1451 .352 .502 128 1249 670
Williams .344 521 1839 .482 .634 191 1798 2021
Ruth .342 714 2213 .474 .690 207 2174 2062
Gehrig .340 493 1995 .447 .632 179 1888 1508
Musial .331 475 1951 .417 .559 159 1949 1599
Foxx .325 534 1922 .428 .609 163 1751 1452
Aaron .305 755 2297 .374 .555 155 2174 1383
Ott .304 511 1859 .414 .533 155 1860 1708
Mays .302 660 1903 .384 .557 156 2062 1464
Mantle .298 536 1509 .421 .557 172 1677 1733
Ramirez .313 490 1604 .409 .593 154 1342 1125
Thomas .303 488 1674 .421 .561 157 1467 1628
A-Rod .306 518 1501 .389 .578 147 1501 915
Bonds .298 762 1996 .444 .607 182 2227 2558
FRobby .294 586 1812 .389 .537 154 1829 1420
Griffey .290 593 1701 .374 .553 140 1545 1162
Robinson and Griffey fall just shy of the .298 BA mark, but Robinson far surpasses Rice in all the other categories, with only Griffey’s 140 OPS+ coming close.
For the retired players, Rice comes closest to Mantle in the counting stats, but closest isn’t the same as close. Mantle crushes him in HR’s, Runs, and BB’s, along with 120+ edge in OPS. In the rate stats, Rice is closest to Robinson, but is still 70+ OPS points behind, with Robinson killing Rice in the counting stats.
For the active players, all have better rate and counting stats than Rice, with the closest (A-Rod) also the farthest from retirement.