Hall of Fame: Ballot-counting.
Posted on December 20, 2007 · 83 Comments
Note that as of Monday, 12/31, I’ve moved the updated counts to a new thread.
UPDATED: Monday, 12/31, 10:45 am EST.
At this point, with at least 10% of the total ballots counted, I feel pretty comfortable calling Gossage’s election. It’s too soon for me to call Blyleven, Dawson, or Rice either way.
I’ve found or received 75 Hall of Fame ballots from official voters so far, and tallied up the results:
| TOTAL | 75 | Pct |
| Gossage | 68 | 91% |
| Blyleven | 52 | 69% |
| Dawson | 52 | 69% |
| Rice | 51 | 68% |
| Morris | 37 | 49% |
| Raines | 32 | 43% |
| McGwire | 20 | 27% |
| Smith | 21 | 28% |
| Trammell | 14 | 19% |
| John | 14 | 19% |
| Concepcion | 14 | 19% |
| Murphy | 11 | 15% |
| Parker | 7 | 9% |
| Mattingly | 3 | 4% |
| Rose (write-in) | 2 | 3% |
| Baines | 1 | 1% |
If you find another ballot, post the link in the comments below and I’ll update the tally as needed.
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83 Responses to “Hall of Fame: Ballot-counting.”
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Is “Hat Guy” Celizic? I love reading the nonsense he spews out in his “columns”.
Keith- what are your views on Blyleven, John, and Morris?
Keith:
Read your ESPN chat today and just wanted to mention East Coast Grill in Cambridge for BBQ.
Marc: Been there, probably seven or eight years ago, and didn’t care for it. I’m a stickler when it comes to Q … Steven: Yes, that’s Celizic. It’s such a great nickname. I’d vote for Blyleven – no-brainer for me – but a soft no on John and a huge if-we-let-this-guy-in-just-let-everyone-in no on Morris.
Just wondering in what category(ies) you reject Morris on. Is it wins,(254) E.R.A. 3.9 0 mostly because of Tiger Stadium, or world series rings which amounted to a paltry 3. Being dead serious, I have never understood his rejection.
Bob: ERA is a good summary of why he doesn’t belong. His career ERA+, which is park-adjusted and reflects his ERA versus the league average for his career, is 105, so his park-adjusted ERA was only 5% better than average. That’s not Hall of Fame caliber.
In addition, his career road ERA was 3.90. Tough to pin that on Tiger Stadium.
He racked up a ton of wins because he spent much of his career on good teams, including a 21-win season for Toronto in 1992 despite a 4.04 ERA (league ERA was 4.11). I can’t give him credit for that win total when run support was so much of the reason.
Still going to pursue the cause for Morris. I thought baseball recently classified a quality start as 6 innings with 3 earned runs or fewer. That equals an era of 4.5 which he clearly bettered. Moreover he pitched in the A.L. his entire career, thus contending against the D.H. The minute he went against the N.L, well, game 7 of 1991 comes to mind… At the very least I am inspired to do more research. While perhaps his league ERA was 3.9 some of those games came at Fenway, another hitters parsdise. And after re-reading your chat today, you mention that strikeouts are all due to the pitcher as opposed to his defense. I agree, and discovered that he has more strikeouts than Tommy John, who you classify as just short. Clearly not trying to belittle Tommy John, just trying to augment my support for Morris. And I apologize if I am turning this into a Jack Morris thread. Thanks
Woody Paige… ugghhhhhh…
http://www.denverpost.com/portal/sports/ci_7733237?_loopback=1
I love it how Paige just throws in a “salute” vote for Dave Concepcion, he of the career 88 OPS+ and 101 HR. He and JM can have a candlelight vigil for the passing of El Rey’s HOF chances.
Hasn’t there been like 1000 columns indicating that all Morris did in his career that was HOF like/worthy was his 10 inning gem. Good to see that Hawk (I feel like many players in the early 90′s and earlier shouldn’t be slammed if their only “negative” is OBP since I think some of them could have adjusted their approach if OBP was highly valued) and Gossage were getting the votes, a bit disappointed to see Raines with only 9. I was hoping that Raines wasn’t going to go the Sandberg route of being penalized or whatever for playing right before the increased offensive era of the 90′s and 00′s.
John, I find it interesting that you do not want Dawson “slammed” for his OBP, yet are no doubt fixated on the ERA of Morris. I choose to look at 3 teams, 3 rings. I consider pitching in the A.L with its dh.I consider the bandboxes of Tiger Stadium and Fenway Park. And I consider articles written by Gammons, Stark and Bill Simmons who want him enshirned. But at the very least, please distinguish me from Woody Paige. I am not advocating Concepcion. And if you are not fixated on his ERA, what are your counter-arguments?
Bob: The DH and Fenway Park are both factored into ERA+ – every AL pitcher had to face the DH and pitch in Fenway Park at some point, and yet Morris managed an ERA just 5% above the league average for his career. How is 5% above league average Hall of Fame worthy? You still haven’t answered that question.
My reasons to exclude Morris:
# of Top 5 AL ERA Seasons (18 yr career): 2
Top 5 AL ERA+: 1
Top 5 AL WHIP: 2
Top 5 AL K/IP: 2
Top 5 AL H allowed/IP: 4
Top 5 AL HR Allowed: 6
That screams League Average Pitcher to me and confirms what my impressions were as a teenager watching Morris pitch.
How is it that Mattingly does not get more support, he was the best defensive 1st baseman of his era and an bove 300 era and average power. Just because his career was cut short by injury, he should not be punished, look at Puckett.
I always thought Puckett was a little overrated- a fine player who benefitted from his immense popularity, a couple of memorable playoff moments (plus his two rings) and an unfortunate ending to his career. If you look at his numbers compared with Mattingly’s, they are pretty close- three points of OPS+ apart (RC are identical). However, Puckett did play a more difficult position. Either way, I don’t think either are quite worthy of Hall of Fame merit.
Bob, its mainly because that’s really the only strong argument against him (which is a good argument, just trying to bring a bit of added thought/perspective to it). His counting stats are outstanding and most of his rate stats except for OBP are very solid. Then you start to add in extras like Gold Gloves, All-Star games (more to explore whether he was deemed as an outstanding player in his time/era), etc. Morris’ stats are pretty average across the board except wins which are more a function of teams, etc. and his one historical performance.
How have the Bob’s and Mike’s of the world stumbled onto this blog without having heard numerous arguments re: the unworthiness of players such as Morris and Mattingly (esp. Morris)? This debate has been gone over ad nauseam. Morris would be an indefensible choice (and while I would not support either, Hernandez is the more worthy ’80s NY 1B in my mind).
I get linked to now from a number of non-baseball blogs, and my Google ranking seems to be going up, so I would bet that many people find this blog because of the food/books stuff and stick around for the occasional sports post. It’s all good.
John, Shawn,& Keith, thank you for your insightful comments/responses. And just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to insult Dawson. I also would prefer to ignore the fact that Morris gave up so many home runs. That was a by-product of Tiger Stadium. While I do note that wins are a function of teams, I also note that the 3 teams he played for all sipped champagne in October. And if we are to believe that october matters, lets review his 1984 post-season. 3 games started, 26 innings pitched and only 5 earned runs. Well above average when it counted. I do acknowledge his ERA is high, but in my ( demented) mind, his post-season heroics dwarf that tidbit. I also note that he has more k’s than Jim Palmer and Tommy John. He also had 175 complete games, a sizeable amount when you realize that Sparky Anderson ( Captain Hook) was his manager for most of his career. I think some people in this group are holding the fact that he played with good teams against him. He carried his teammates on his back, not the other way around. But this fact bears being mentioned again. 1984: 3 starts, 26 innings, 5 earned runs. At the very least, that is better than ” pretty average across the board.” And thank you guys for letting me use this forum to rant. Keith, great website.
Herb, I have heard and read the arguments about the unworthiness of Morris. I have chosen not to be swayed by them. Again Gammons, Stark and Simmons all support him. And he does get over the 5% needed to stick around. Perhaps I am a fan of George Orwell and 1984 sticks with me.
Bob, at the very least I like that you stick to your guns on this. I think the difference between your HOF merits and mine would be that while Morris was indeed a great postseason pitcher in 1984, it seems that his other 1000+ innings should also count in the discussion and weigh more heavily than the 26. I’m all for Morris in the “Hall of Decent during the regular season and above average in the post-season” but that would be about it. Lastly, the fact that he played on good teams is the only reason he’s even brought up as a HOFer. The fact that your argument for him is basically primarily on his post-season innings pretty much bears that out.
And I don’t think Keith should be in the BBWAA because he doesn’t really know anything about baseball. Boo on you for even trying Keith.
That’s my way of saying keep up the good work Keith, much appreciated.
Bob, an ERA of 4.50 is only for the absolute worst of quality starts. I looked up the numbers for the 2007 NL, and there were 1,224 quality starts (only 148, or 12%, were of the 6 IP, 3 ER variety). Teams with a quality start won 835 and lost 389, for a winning % of .682. The ERA for all 1,224 quality starts was 2.13.
Wow, Keith, the number on Raines looks pretty much like the one you got in your straw poll last January. Is there much crossover between the two samples?
I’m starting to get optimistic about Raines crossing 50% on his first year, which would be a solid base towards eventual enshrinement.
Eric, thanks for the free research. My objection to the 6 inning 4.5 ERA is that that stat clearly does not factor in stadium and line-up issues. I am new to the sabernomics math, and probably will never understand it. I know Keith has mentioned ERA+ a few times, but I am not sure how they figure it out. Although, I am sure there is a formula. I do know, however, that in 1990 as a 12 year old kid, Prince Fielder was hitting home runs in Tiger Stadium. While I grant you Prince is a special talent, that also speaks volumes as to the size of Tiger Stadium. This is what Morris had to contend with. Brutal for pitchers. There also appears to be an interesting disconnect between the writers in this group and the Hall writers regarding Alan Trammell. Playing his whole career in Tiger Stadium, he averaged .285 and belted 185 homers. That does not resonate with me, regardless of how well he played the field. Much more impressed with Morris than Trammell. In this group I am in the minority, yet Morris gets more support from the actual voters. Again I apologize for my ignorance regarding sabernomics. But I would like to ask one more question, although a response is not neccessary. Game 7 of the world series, what pitcher do you want on the mound? In my humble mind its either Beckett or Jack Morris. Thank you
Bob,
ERA+ factors in Tigers Stadium. You can fairly easily calculate the amount a stadium’s particular environment inflates or deflates scoring. You can then take that adjustment and apply it (on a ratio basis) to a pitcher’s ERA based on the parks in which he pitched.
As Keith pointed out, when you do this for Morris, he comes out 5% better than the AL average at the time. So AFTER you factor for his environment, that’s where he comes in.
Having more strikeouts than Palmer and John is not a good argument either. Palmer is not in the HOF for his strikeouts, and John is not in at all. You can’t pick and choose stats and compare them to help your preferred candidate’s cause. You wouldn’t let a shortstop in simply because he was a better hitter than Ozzie Smith, would you?
The fact that this betters the MAXIMUM possible ERA for a quality start is irrelevant. It merely indicates that Morris was a good pitcher, not a great one.
And the postseason performance is impressive, but the Hall of Fame is for truly great players, not merely good players who had a small handful of great games in the postseason.
Bob, ERA+ is ERA neutralized based on the parks. It’s made so you can directly compare things like Coors Field and Wrigley Field. Morris being victimized by Tiger Stadium is accounted for in ERA+, and so it’s perfectly valid to state that he was only 5% better than average over his career. That’s about the same gap as having a 3.80 ERA in a league where the average is 4.00.
I should also note that there are 459 players with a better ERA+ with at least 1000 IP, 3000 batters faced, and 100 decisions. I realize that making the criteria 10,000 IP and 250 decisions would sort out most of that, but it should be clear that Morris is way off what a HoF pitcher should be.
Jay: I think fewer than half of the 30 ballots I’ve collected were in my sample from last year. I wanted to do this to see how reliable my sampling was – we’ll compare what I get (I want to get to 60-70 ballots, which would be 10% of the electorate) to the actual results, and then next year we’ll know what our margin of error is.
Last comment:
If you set IP to 2000 (I have no idea why I said 10,000 in the last comment) you still get 200 pitchers at least as good as Morris. Should the Hall of Fame have 200 pitchers?
Hey your beating my tally which stands at 19 full balots. Not sure if you dont have any of these.
1.Jim Hawkins
2.Don Bostrom
3.Garry Brown
4.Bernie Lincincome
5.Jeff Blair
6.John Mcgrath
7.Jim Caple
8.Mike Celzic
9.Buster Olney
10.Bob Klapisch
11. Mike Nadal
12. Lowell Cohen
13. Jim Alexander
14. Bob Ryan
15. Carl Steward
16. Bill Kennedy
17. Kevin Kernan
18. Jeff Fletcher
19. Phil Jackman
Hope not to ruin a well-versed and thoughtful HOF discussion, but Keith, just wanted to mention from all the Boston-area barbecue posts in the chat the other day, I’m really surprised M & M Ribs in Dorchester didn’t come up. Went there 3 or 4 years ago – it’s just a trailer that Big Moe, the owner, parks in a vacant lot, only takeout – but I thought it was fantastic. I first heard about it on the Phantom Gourmet (http://www.phantomgourmet.com/Showpage.aspx?content=ReportCard&id=3433). Definitely a worth a try, it’s fun.
Ronaldo and Dan, thanks for the feedback. To answer the last question first, clearly there should be no quotas for the Hall-of-Fame. I also wasn’t intending to cherry-pick stats for Morris, just trying to shore up some support for him. (Clearly not working) I guess my defense of him has always been ( and always wiii be) predicated on his Octobers, and not his Mays. One last favor from you guys if possible. Could you recommend a book that deals with sabernomics. I would prefer a book to a publication as I subscibe to BA and ESPN as it is. Our opinions notwithstanding, I have enjoyedd the back-and-forth.
Al, thanks, you added a few names I hadn’t seen. I’ll update the post now (43 ballots).
Bob, I don’t have any books that go into the logic and the processes other than the Bill James Historical Abstracts. Sites like hardballtimes.com or baseballthinkfactory.org are good places to read up and ask questions.
Keith, stumbled here, awesome, glad to see you got a blog, and don’t worry, your HOF vote will be coming soon.
BUT GODDAMN WAS I GLAD TO SEE YOU SAY BLYLEVEN IS A NO-BRAINER, GODDAMN GLAD!
However, I need your reasoning as to why it’s a no-brainer, as my no-brainer reasoning doesn’t seem to work on other blogs and message posts, and I’m guessing your no-brainer reasoning will allow me to infiltrate the world of EqA, of which I’m just becoming accustomed to.
Although, I don’t need no fancy stat to know Blyleven is a no-brainer HOFamer. Makes me more qualified to write about baseball than Woody Paige, no?
Bob,
Baseball Between the Numbers
Moneyball
The Bill James Historical Abstract
are good places to start. I’ve read all of these and have a pretty firm grasp on the “advanced metrics.” Check out baseballmusings.com and baseballprospectus.com as well.
Gossage &/or Jim Rice attaining enshrinement furthers the progression of MLB to a relegation system: Yanks/Sawkx, & everybody else.
& if those two decent players get in before Tommy John, I hope that the pitching staves in the Bronx & Boston experience elbow breakdowns en masse.
Dan and Kyle, thank you very much for the tips. Sad commentary about myself that I have not read Bill James. Will recify it.
Tracy Ringolsby: Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Rich Gossage, Jack Morris, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/12/qa_tracy_ringol.php
Taylor – Thanks. I’m updating the spreadsheet now.
[...] Over on his personal blog, RAB favorite Keith Law has tallied up 48 HOF ballots he’s received or seen. You can check out the full list over there, but of note is that Goose Gossage is sitting on 90 percent of those ballots. As expected, Donny Baseball is on but one ballot. document.write(”); [...]
These are not official ballots, but we are running our own Hall of Fame poll over the the Baseball-Reference.com Stat of the Day blog. You can still vote if you like:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/462
Keith,
Any chance you can post your spreadsheet at some point, and/or, give us the list of who did/didn’t vote for Raines?
Thanks…
I thought a comparison to this would be interesting:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=70758
Keith’s list has 4 runawayers: Gossage (91%), Blyleven/Rice/Dawson (around 70%). After that, Morris/Raines struggling to get to 50%.
The Baseball Fever list has Blyleven/Gossage around 75%. But Rice/Dawson are at 46%.
The other two contenders in the BBWAA has Raines at 63% and Morris at only 13%.
The other heavy hitter in the Baseball Fever list (Trammell at 49%) is at 19% with BBWAA.
Clearly, BBWAA are far more fascinated with SLG, RBI, and wins than they are of OBP, Runs Scored, and ERA.
Not sure if you counted him already, but T.R. Sullivan has his ballot up on his blog:
http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/trsullivan/2007/12/my_hall_of_fame.html
My votes would go to
Gossage using the weak argument of “if Sutter then Gossage”.
Blyleven because he has the same type career as Sutton, Niekro, is under appreciated and merits induction
Rice as he was thought of as the most dangerous hitter in baseball for a good long time
Dawson no question a great all-around player who deserves it
Morris a big game pitcher and constant winner. BBWA doesn’t like him but should elect him
If my vote counted, I’d have to greatly consider
Murphy as the back to back MVP, great player, classy guy
Parker as the hated poster child for cocaine in the 80s. He could flat out play, hit, run and throw
Trammell as a SS in the pre-Jeter, A-Rod time who was better than most SS in the hall.
The rest of the guys aren’t worthy in my opinion…
Bob, despite what one of the posters wrote, it’s great that you stumbled across KLaw’s mostly non-baseball site and also seem to have an interest in learning more about stats, such as ERA+, to help evaluate players. If you keep an open mind, you’re probably about to start a fun journey that will no doubt alter some of your long-held beliefs about players from the past.
One thing to keep in mind (and this is actually a point to argue in favor of Morris, even though I am also part of the group that does not view Morris as a HOFer) is that ERA+ is only one stat to help evaluate a pitcher’s career. Not all pitchers with an ERA+ of 105 are created equal. Someone who pitches six or seven seasons, and averages 140 IP a year with an ERA+ of 100 is not as valuable as someone who pitches sixteen or seventeen seasons, and averages 220 IP with an ERA+ or 100. I made up that example, but I think you can see the point. Length of career, innings pitched per season, post-season accomplishments and specifically career peak value are other items to be considered when evaluating a career.
For example, Catfish Hunter is in the HOF with a career ERA+ similar to Morris. Yet before you think that’s an argument in favor of Morris, read on! Other pitchers with the same ERA+ as Hunter are, to name just two, Bud Black and Bob Tewksbury. That’s an argument on why Hunter (or Morris) should *not* be in the HOF. Yet very few, if any, talent evaluators would select Black or Tewksbury above Hunter if they could somehow magically pick one of those three knowing what they now know about them. Hunter’s final ERA+ was impacted negatively because he was called to the majors when he was barely 19 and not quite ready for the Show, and then he hung around a few years after his arm was pretty well shot. At his peak, though, he was quite a good pitcher, winning 20 games for five straight seasons, leading the league in wins in back-to-back years, winning % twice, ERA, Cy Young Award winner, and most significantly, posting an ERA+ of 143, 140 and 134 during his peak years. He was also a workhorse, averaging more than 300 innings over three straight seasons, including being the first pitcher in nearly 30 years to pitch more than 300 innings and complete 30 games in a single season. Prior to Hunter, the last to do that, I believe, was Bob Feller in the 1940s. No one’s done it since, and I’d be shocked if anyone ever does it again. Obviously, a pitcher starting one quarter of his team’s game, and completing 30 of them with an ERA+ of 143 is going to be worth a lot more than someone who pitches 100 innings. Throw in a perfect game and a number of big post-season wins for the A’s dynasty of the early to mid 70s, and that’s why he ended up with enough HOF support, deserved or not. (Having a colorful name didn’t hurt either!)
This is not an argument for Hunter in the Hall, since I believe he falls a little short, as I believe Morris does, too. Yet I can make an argument for Hunter because he did achieve greatness for a period of time. There were several years where he was rightfully regarded as one of the best pitchers on the earth. Morris can’t even quite claim that. He was certainly good and he deserves to be discussed as a HOFer because of his overall career, but even his best years fall short of Hunter’s. Morris was a good pitcher, and that’s says a lot. But he was not a great pitcher, in my opinion, and I don’t see other things in his career to offset that 105 ERA+.
Mike, thank you very much for the kind words and the time-consuming research your last post entailed. It is duly noted, and I look forward to reading your future posts regardless of the topic. Again my sincere thanks.
Keith,
I’m sure you caught Dan Shaughnessy’s HOF ballot (if not — “I voted for Rice, Gossage, and Bert Blyleven this year” — go to: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/12/26/this_is_rices_year/?page=2).
I suppose there’s not much to complain about with Blyleven and Gossage, but Rice . . . nice homer vote there. D.S. sums it up best with:
“. . . .Rice has three things going for him: 1. His vote total has been north of 60 percent in recent years and Sox historian Dick Bresciani has boosted Rice’s candidacy with a convincing public relations campaign; 2. The more we talk about steroids, the better Rice’s numbers look; 3. There are no new candidates to overwhelm the voters.”
Oh yea, and extra points for being both “loved” and “feared.”
Now that we’ve established those factors as considerations for HOF candidacy, I can leap from the top of my office building. Say what you will about some of these writers’ ability to cast a HOF ballot, they should get an A+ for transparency.
The support for Rice really boggles the mind. The lack of support for Raines is kind of understandable, given it’s his first year, but it still is kind of shocking that so many people seem to feel that Rice is more qualified for the Hall than a guy like Tim Raines. But, I can’t exactly figure out how a guy suddenly “becomes Hall of Fame worthy” after not being suitable for x number of years on the ballot.
Taylor – got it now, as well as Conlin’s (posted today, usual suspects, no Raines). … James, I’m with you. Dawson wouldn’t bother me that much, although I would never vote for him. Rice would be a minor disgrace.
Interesting stuff so far. I Think It’s very likely Goose finally goes to Cooperstown. Last year I calculated 132 Total ballots and goose had over 82 percent of the vote. I think the 90 percent you have him running at the moment probably does make him a lock but still would be mildly surprised to see him clear 80 percent.
I also think it’s really kind of odd that Sutter got in at all, let alone before Gossage.
Sutter: 1042.1 IP — 7.6 H/9 — 2.7 BB/9 — 7.4 K/9 — 300 S — 512 GF — 136 ERA+ — 59.1 WARP3
Gossage: 1809.1 IP — 7.4 H/9 — 3.6 BB/9 — 7.5 K/9 — 310 S — 681 GF — 126 ERA+ — 90.0 WARP3
Sutter’s adjusted ERA is about 10% better, and he walked about 1 fewer batter per 9, but the Goose logged almost 800 more innings and finished out about 170 more games in his career. Puzzling.
Keith, I wonder if we can trust these vote totals to be representative of the overall voting body with the BBWAA. Ninety percent for Gossage is very high based on past votes. It seems to me that anyone responding to Keith’s request, or any reporter who is posting his ballot online, is probably a bit more Internet savvy than the overall voting membership, and thus might be a bit more enlightened. That said, Gossage only missed by a few votes last year, so the 90% number probably does mean the Goose will make it. I’m happy to see Rice falling short in this poll, but once again, similar to what I said about Gossage, I’m sure Rice will pull more votes from some of the Paleolithic reporters, which means his final numbers will be a bit higher. Raines’ final vote tally will also probably be a bit lower.
If you don’t have, Bill Conlin votes for:
John, Gossage, Smith, Blyleven, Morris, Dawson and Rice.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/columnists/20071227_Bill_Conlin___No_steroid_taint_on_this_years_Hall_ballot.html
Mike – Got Conlin, thanks. I think there are about a half-dozen out there that I don’t have, based on what I’ve seen from Repoz and some other counters. Also, I think it’s too soon to say anything about the bias of my sample. I have made a concerted effort to get ballots from older voters, although I’m stuck when it comes to retired voters. I may have a bit of an NL slant, but even so, until we compare my results to the actual voting results, I don’t think we really know how my sample skews.
Tangotiger – I promised email respondents anonymity. Sorry.
Any idea why there’s always an idiot voter or two who casts a vote for–oh, I don’t know–Jay Buhner or Dante Bichette? Are these voters typically home team fans voting for their home team players? Are they just looking to make a statement, such as, “Jay Buhner might not have been a HOFer but he was a fine, fine player and my vote shows the world this”?
A bit late to the game here on the Morris argument, but to Bob the Jack Morris advocate, pointing to his postseason statistics is a bit of a double-edged sword. He won a World Series ring with the Blue Jays in spite of how he performed in the postseason, when he absolutely tanked and tallied three of the four losses the Jays mounted in the postseason in 1992 (they weren’t cheap losses, either – he got shelled).
Overall in the postseason, he managed a 7-4 mark with a 3.80 ERA. Not quite the big money pitcher that he’s often made out to be, his Game 7 gem notwithstanding.
You know, the more I think about it, Jim Rice is kind of like the position player equivalent to Sandy Koufax. Koufax was a good but not great pitcher for the first half of his career, then put up 5 (some argue 6) great seasons to end his career. But when you look past the outer layer, Koufax was largely a product of Dodger Stadium and the ridiculous pitching mound he had to work with. From ’62-’66, when he was at his best, his splits were pretty interesting
1962: 1.75 at Home, 3.53 Away
1963: 1.38 at Home, 2.31 Away
1964: 0.85 at Home, 2.93 Away
1965: 1.38 at Home, 2.72 Away
1966: 1.52 at Home, 1.96 Away
The league average ERA for those years
3.59
2.99
3.25
3.26
3.28
Should Sandy Koufax be a Hall of Famer? Most say yes without blinking, but I’m not so sure anymore.
Keith, no problem.
Perhaps at some point (or next year), you can flag those that were public from those that were private, and just release the public data.
Jon Heyman’s ballot. No words can describe some of his logic…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/12/28/daily.scoop/
James,
Koufax is a HOFer to me based on the level he achieved at his peak. I was too young to have seen him pitch, but I can see the numbers. Yes, I’d say his reputation is greater than the reality, meaning he’s overrated, but that also doesn’t mean he wasn’t worthy of the Hall. I think he is.
I generally think many HOFers are elected based on their peak values when they establish their greatness, not necessarily on their final numbers, even though that’s what the media often focuses on. What usually happens is a player will hang on long enough to compile what many view as the proper “counting” stats to make the Hall, which is how we end up with these rules for automatic Hall entry: 500 HRs, 3000 Hits, etc. There are certainly variations, meaning someone who put up excellent numbers at his peak, but wasn’t necessarily one of the all-time greats, will need the final counting stats to make the Hall. Others (and I think this is where Koufax calls) can make it because of what they achieved at their peak.
I understand the analogy to Rice and I think it’s a fair one, but where they differ is Koufax was a better (read: greater) pitcher than Rice was a hitter. Also, as you’ll see from your home-road splits on Koufax, he was still pitching very, very well on the road, beating the league ERA all five seasons. Rice, on the other hand, was not a very good hitter on the road. In fact, his career road stats are pretty mediocre for a supposed “feared” power-hitting OFer. Something like .275 BA, .330 OBP, and .450 SLG (off the top of my head, so I know I’m off by a few points there). If I was an opposing manager, I’d be much more concerned about facing Koufax on the road than facing Rice on the road!
The amazing thing about Koufax is he hadn’t even begun to slip. I’m not even sure he had hit his peak. His last season, indeed seasons, were his best, with his last being his very best, which makes me wonder about what might have been. His ERA+ the last five seasons, from 1962 forward, were: 141, 159, 187, 160 and 190. He got better every year, with the exception of 1965 when he “slipped” to 160, although set a then-MLB record for strike outs with 382. He then “rebounded” to a 190 ERA+ and retired, supposedly because he was concerned he’d end up a cripple if he kept pitching. From what we know now, he wasn’t risking any more damage if he kept on playing, which means baseball fans missed a lot of great pitching from Koufax.
What kind of numbers would Koufax have put up in the next two seasons when pitching really dominated, and in paticular the year-of-the-pitcher in 1968 when Gibson posted his 1.12 ERA? We’ll never know, but it’s fun to think about.
I’m comfortable with Koufax in the Hall, just as I would have been comfortable with Pedro Martinez being elected to the Hall if he retired after 2003 with only 165 career wins. Everything Pedro has done since then, or will do the rest of his career, is not why he’ll be elected to the Hall. It was everything he did up until that point. He’s just padding now. Pedro, of course, was a much, much more dominant pitcher than even Koufax, although it’s still tough for me to compare 180 IPs with 300 IP.
Koufax, Yes. Rice, No!
I agree. I don’t really have a problem with Koufax being in. His case is tricky because he WAS the best pitcher in the league for 5 years, whereas Rice wasn’t even the best hitter in the league when he was supposedly “dominating for a decade”. I only really compared them because both had very steep splits, and both fall short of the big counting numbers. Like I said, I’m just not as sure as I used to be on Koufax, but there are far more egregious cases to be examined before worrying about SK.
You are impressed with those ERA+? How about:
219, 163, 243, 291, 189, 202, 210
That was Pedro.
Pedro From 1997-2003: 1408 IP, 2.20 ERA (lgERA = 4.69), 118W, 36L
Sandy From 1962-1966: 1377 IP, 1.95 ERA (lgERA = 3.26), 111W, 34L
Randy From 1997-2002: 1487 IP, 2.58 ERA (lgERA = 4.59), 120W, 42L
Randy compares to Koufax (and this even omits some of RJ’s great years). RJ’s K/BB was 2037/451 compared to Koufax’ 1444/316, which are both just above a 4.5 K/BB ratio.
And Koufax had his World Series. But Randy’s LCS and WS are almost as good.
As for all those “innings”, Koufax threw 114 pitches per start. That’s the same number Randy threw. The difference is that Koufax made 6 more starts per season (as did all the top starters of that era). Pedro’s at 104.
Randy and Sandy compare very favorably to each other at their peaks. Pedro was on another planet.
tangotiger, I’m well aware of Martinez’ ERA+ numbers, which is why I said Pedro was a “much, much more dominant pitcher.” Your defense of Martinez sounds almost reactionary, as if you thought I was insulting Martinez. If so, that was hardly the case.
and how about Maddux in his prime?
1992-1998: 166, 171, 271, 262, 162, 189, 187
1992-1998 WARP3: 11.6, 10.1, 15.0, 13.9, 11.4, 11.01, 11.7
1675.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 1286K/269BB (4.8:1)
Ridiculous numbers.
I’m in Rice’s corner.
The following is not my concept by any means, but a good argument in support of enshrinement.
Rice’s key stats: .298 BA 382 HR 1,451 RBI
.352 OBA .502 SLG
The only retired players to meet or exceed his statline are in the HOF (Williams, Ruth, Gehrig, Musial, Foxx, Aaron, Ott, Mays and Mantle).
Active players to meet or exceed his statline are likely all HOFers . . . depending on how the PED issue plays out in at least one instance (M.Ramirez, F.Thomas, A-Rod, Bonds).
In addition, 6 top five finishes in the MVP balloting with one win is significant. This clearly indicates that he was among the best and most respected players in his time.
There’s room in the hall for Rice as an exceptional average/on base/power guy of the 70s and 80s.
Bummy, you took the focus away from me/Jack Morris. Thank you
You’re welcome . . . take a breath.
Bummy,
I guess the only stat that Rice has (of the ones you listed) that jumps out at you is the .298 BA. And generally people aren’t inducted into the HOF for a good BA. His HR, RBI, OBP, and SLG aren’t impressive at all (relative to HOF) and letting him in opens the door to other very good, not great, players.
Keith,
Why do you hold Rice’s home/road splits as a negative? Isn’t is reasonable to say that a player who played his entire career in a home park like Fenway, adapted his game to that park as an advantage? A similar argument can be made for Jeter in the Toilet.
My theory is that those of us who saw Rice play think he is a HOF and those who did not think he isn’t. Do you know any of Rice’s contemporaries who think he falls short?
Steve
Steve: To me, a huge and persistent home-road split (career-long, not just a year or two) says to me that a player gained an artificial advantage from his environment, and we should not credit him extra for that. Jim Rice is Dante Bichette, with the added lore of the Red Sox’ uniform.
I do remember Rice as a good player, incidentally. I don’t remember thinking I was watching a superstar. I definitely got that feeling from Raines.
I’m too young to really comment on any of the players on the ballot earlier than McGwire, but thanks for doing this, Keith, and also for everybody that commented. It was very enlightening.
And you may have gotten this already, but Gerry Fraley of TSN had posted his ballot on Yahoo Sports. In alphabetical order: Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, Morris, Murphy, Parker, and Trammell.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjI1Cy163.gjPRNJHY0ERpwRvLYF?slug=insidedishwhosgettingthe&prov=tsn&type=lgns
Keith, I’m grateful for your running Hall of Fame tally, and I’m curious … Have you run the list in past years? I have a theory that lists like this are not particularly predictive on the marginal candidates — marginal in the minds of the voters, I mean — because the older voters don’t have columns and/or aren’t as likely to reveal their choices. Which would lead to candidates like Blyleven and Raines getting less support than these pre-election polls might suggest. -rob
Rob: I haven’t done it before, and one of my purposes this year was to run it and compare it to the official results to see what bias(es) we might find. I have been aggressive in reaching out to long-time badgeholders to try to achieve some balance in the poll, and of course we have public ballots from guys like Fraley (thanks ajnrules), who’s been a Hall voter for 15 years.
My concern is the dark matter of the voter pool: voters who are no longer active BBWAA members/badgeholders and who also didn’t publish their ballots anywhere. I don’t really have a way to identify or locate those voters, and if they have a different voting pattern than the pool of active voters, I’ll miss that.
Peter Gammons changed his mind and is voting for Raines:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/news/story?id=3169953
Anyone who thinks that Rice should be in the HOF should compare his numbers to Dewey Evans’. They had basically the same offensive #’s and Evans was a much better fielder. These are two examples of players who were very good but not HOF worthy (not to mention the fact that Evans had a higher OBP in his last year at age 39 in over 100 games than Rice had in any single season in his entire career).
John Harper published his HOF ballot today.
“I’m voting for five players: Goose Gossage, Jim Rice, Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven, and Dave Concepcion.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/12/30/2007-12-30_scott_boras_ego_has_yet_to_recover_from_.html?page=2
Interesting point about Evans, who I also like very much. Let’s take a look at the raw numbers first:
Avg. HR RBI OBA SLG
Rice .298 382 1451 .352 .502
Evans .272 385 1384 .370 .470
Now for the black ink of top 5 finishes in major categories. League leader status noted in parentheses:
Rice Evans
MVP top fives (wins) 6 (1) 2 (0)
All-Star selection 8 3
Gold gloves 0 8
Average top fives 4 0
OBA top fives 0 3 (1)
Slug avg top fives 5 (2) 3
OPS top fives 4 (1) 4 (2)
Runs top five 4 5 (1)
Hits top five 5 (1) 0
Total bases top five 5 (4) 3 (1)
HR top five 5 (3) 3 (1)
RBI top five 7 (2) 3
This information indicates that Rice and Evans have similar career totals, but due to Evans longer career. Rice was the more dominant player during his peak years. The MVP rankings and all-star selections speak to that. An overall assessment of Rice’s career warrants enshrinement.
We seem to debate quite a bit if the Rices, Dawsons, Murphys and Parkers belong in the HOF, with many analysts opining . . . “close, but no.”
A question for those more adept at stat analysis than me . . . are the hitters who broke in during the early to mid 70s approriately represented? Is there some statistical quirk where these players numbers don’t look as good compared to other eras?
It’s open to intepretation, but the only hitters from the Rice/Dawson, et al era in the HOF are Winfield, Schmidt, Brett, Yount, Murray, Molitor, Fisk and Carter (Reggie, Perez, Morgan, Bench broke in several years earlier).
Is that adequate representation?
Taylor: Thanks for that link. Harper’s reasoning on Raines (“I have a hard time thinking of him as a first-ballot Hall of Famer”) is specious, but I think we’ll see Raines pick up a few dozen votes next year for that very reason.
Worse, however, is the paragraph above Harper’s vote: “A handful of high school pitchers from the ’06 draft also are on the fast track, including Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek, son of former major leaguer Doug Drabek.”
Kyle Drabek blew his elbow out this spring. You’re not on the fast track if you’re still out recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Keith,
On Harper’s reasoning — agreed. Generally, his writing gives me the impression that he is lazy. In the case of that article, there is a smooth transition from one lazy comment (Drabek) to the next (Raines).
I read the transcript of your 12.28 ESPN chat over the weekend. I somehow missed your previously posted pork loin recipe. I don’t know if you have ever tried Giuliano Matarese’s recipe — pork tenderloin stuffed with figs, gorgonzola, etc., but its excellent. If not, google it.
Have a happy and safe new year.
Bummy,
Responding to one of your 12/29 posts (sorry, discovered this blog just today). You’ve picked some very selective stats to compare to a very select list of players. But it’s obvious that Rice doesn’t really belong with those players. I’ve added OPS+, Runs, and BB’s to your list (hope the column formatting works)
BA HR RBI OBP SLG OPS Runs BBs
Rice .298 382 1451 .352 .502 128 1249 670
Williams .344 521 1839 .482 .634 191 1798 2021
Ruth .342 714 2213 .474 .690 207 2174 2062
Gehrig .340 493 1995 .447 .632 179 1888 1508
Musial .331 475 1951 .417 .559 159 1949 1599
Foxx .325 534 1922 .428 .609 163 1751 1452
Aaron .305 755 2297 .374 .555 155 2174 1383
Ott .304 511 1859 .414 .533 155 1860 1708
Mays .302 660 1903 .384 .557 156 2062 1464
Mantle .298 536 1509 .421 .557 172 1677 1733
Ramirez .313 490 1604 .409 .593 154 1342 1125
Thomas .303 488 1674 .421 .561 157 1467 1628
A-Rod .306 518 1501 .389 .578 147 1501 915
Bonds .298 762 1996 .444 .607 182 2227 2558
FRobby .294 586 1812 .389 .537 154 1829 1420
Griffey .290 593 1701 .374 .553 140 1545 1162
Robinson and Griffey fall just shy of the .298 BA mark, but Robinson far surpasses Rice in all the other categories, with only Griffey’s 140 OPS+ coming close.
For the retired players, Rice comes closest to Mantle in the counting stats, but closest isn’t the same as close. Mantle crushes him in HR’s, Runs, and BB’s, along with 120+ edge in OPS. In the rate stats, Rice is closest to Robinson, but is still 70+ OPS points behind, with Robinson killing Rice in the counting stats.
For the active players, all have better rate and counting stats than Rice, with the closest (A-Rod) also the farthest from retirement.