Klaw: Double up or quit, double stake or split, it’s Klawchat.

JP: would Lazarito crack your top 100, if eligible?
Klaw: Absolutely not. Wouldn’t even be a consideration.

Adam: If the Braves sign Lazarito does that mean they are out on Maitan? If they wait until July can they sign both?
Klaw: He would have to agree to wait until July 2nd to sign. That’s not legal, but then again, nothing that happens in the international free agent market seems to be legal any more. There are African dictatorships that laugh at how corrupt baseball’s IFA system is.

Dave: How high would Conforto probably be on the top 100 if he didnt meet playing time conditions like Matz?
Klaw: Probably top 20. Very high floor, some All-Star potential, but not the super high ceiling of top 10 guys. I’ve always believed he’d hit and I think the limited pro sample we’ve seen so far supports that.

Bob: Greetings, Keith. Can we talk Ichiro for the HOF? Career WAR of 58.4 which is not a typical slam dunk number. He trails non-HOFers Reggie Smith and Dwight Evans, and is tied with Sammie Sosa. Assuming he doesn’t add to that figure appreciably, under what criteria do we put him in the HOF (as everyone assumes will happen)? He didn’t start in American baseball until he was 27? His Japanese stats should count too? What are your thoughts on this?
Klaw: I have no objection to giving some weight to his performance in Japan. I also don’t object to considering Ichiro’s impact on the game, here and globally. He was very much a star in the subjective sense of the word – the Fame part of the Hall of Fame. I think he’ll sail in on the first ballot because his support will be so broad, and if I have the vote I’ll give one to him.

Josh: How quickly do you think that Groome could love through the minors?
Klaw: Freudian slip? Not quickly at all. Big arm, not advanced or polished.

Dean Gulberry: As always, appreciate the chat! What is your opinion of Josh Hader? Did you get to see him pitch when you were in the AFL?
Klaw: Great arm, two above-average or better pitches, reliever’s arm action and delivery, but a really uncomfortable at bat, especially for lefties. I don’t know how any LHB ever sees the ball out of his hand.

Rob: I’m sure you’re getting a lot of questions about Dickerson-McGee. What can you tell us about Kevin Padlo? A few observers seem to think he’s the hidden gem in the trade.
Klaw: Yeah, I’m not buying it. Actually would probably rate Marquez, who has two above-average pitches but some reliever risk, over Padlo, who doesn’t have a great body and may not stick at 3b.

Joe: Will Corey Seager stick at SS? If he does, will he ever be good, or adequate, defensively?
Klaw: He’ll spned the majority of his MLB career at 3b. Might be adequate for a year at SS, but even so I think the plays he can’t get to will start to become a problem.

JP: rank these OF: Judge, Conforto, Mazara, Brinson, Benintendi
Klaw: You’ll get the answer to that next week when my top 100 comes out.

JP: more likely to be a useful starter: Bundy or Kolek
Klaw: Kolek. Bundy might be through as a potential starter.

Craig: Which team has done more in the past 12 months to improve its farm system: Philadelphia or Milwaukee?
Klaw: Milwaukee.

Mr. Robot: RIP Bloc Party. Didn’t think things could have gotten worse than “Four” but “Hymns” is just a snooze. Thanks for the memories, go in peace.
Klaw: Yep. Their album and St. Lucia’s were both huge disappointments. Megadeth’s was too – it’s like Mustaine is trying to recapture the Hangar 18 sound and just can’t find it.

Dance!: You were talking up Jake Lamb quite a bit last year but then he dealt with some injury stuff after a ridiculous April. What do you expect from him this year?
Klaw: Above-average offense, more OBP and doubles than HR, and at least solid-average defense at 3b.

Francisco, Atlanta: Hi Keith! Thanks for the chat. How good is Nick Senzel ?
Klaw: No clear position, and hasn’t shown much power in games. He might go in the first round because of the paucity of college bats, but I know plenty of scouts who think he’s a 2nd round talent or less.

Claudio: Coppolella recently stated that, while the general BPA rule will apply in next draft, they would love to get a college hitter. Do you buy it? (I don’t) and if it’s true, what’s your view of Buddy Reed?
Klaw: I don’t buy it, because there may not be a good enough college bat where they pick, and I don’t think Reed can hit. It’s a bad swing on both sides of the plate.

Ozzie: What is the ceiling for Eddy Martinez? Do you expect the Cubs to start him in South Bend?
Klaw: I only saw a workout – he really doesn’t have a lot of game experience – but he has All-Star tools. South Bend is probably right, just let him move quickly if he turns out to be really advanced at the plate. We just don’t know much yet.

Trent: Instead of costing a team a first round pick, would it make more sense to cost a team overall bonus pool money instead for a qualifying offer player? It seems like teams might be more willing to sign a guy that would help their team if it cost them, say $600k, to sign a QO guy and get to keep their pick. I get that that may bring down certain amateur players signings but it could also help others get more.
Klaw: I just want to see free agency disconnected from the draft. No system that MLB has tried has ever done anything but put an artificial drag on salaries – it’s a tax, and rational actors respond to taxes by reducing their demand or the price they’re willing to pay, Bernie – and the idea that you can use the draft to compensate low-revenue teams for lost free agencies has failed repeatedly in practice.

Jonathan Orr: Best Cardinals starter out of Gonzales, Lyons, and Cooney
Klaw: Gonzales. Other two are probably 6th starter/swingman types.

Tom: How much merit do you give the influx of “tanking is killing the game!” discussions?
Klaw: Zero. It’s not killing the game because this isn’t basketball, and it is absolutely the result of the incentives MLB and the union set up in the last CBA. I mean, would Phillies fans rather see a bad, expensive 72-win team, or a bad, young, cheap 65-win team? I’m betting the latter. Give the fans Nola and Thompson and Velazquez and Crawford and put the future on TV every night instead of signing a bunch of garbage veterans to one-year, $10 million deals just to pretend you’re competing.

Jason: I am guessing your top 100 comes out next week?
Klaw: Indeed, as I have announced here on the dish several times already. The top 100 and the org rankings come out next Thursday and Wednesday, respectively. The team reports (top 10 + notes) will come out the following week, because I lost a week to a respiratory infection.

Mike: Would Kevin Maitan crack your top 100? If not, has any 16 year old cracked it?
Klaw: No, and none since Sano. Only three ever did and Sano is the only one to turn into anything.

Jose: Any red flags concerning Blake Ruhterford? ie. age, competitive spirit?
Klaw: Age (nearly 19) and the fact that he’s a corner guy already so you’re betting entirely on the bat and power.

Craig: I know you’re very high on Dom Smith but I saw you mention in a previous chat that you’re concerned about his lack of pulling ability so far – how big of a concern do you think that is?
Klaw: Not a lack of ability, but a reluctance to do so, as he’s spent two years in parks that discourage it. He has big pull power – he hit a homer at Salt River to right-center in October that might have landed on the 202 – but knowing that pulling balls in Savannah or St. Lucie would result in a lot of F9s, he chose to just go the other way all day. That’s very sensible, but now that he’s going to AA it’s time to let ‘er rip.

Kerry: Dalbec is rated pretty high for his power. But he pitched well too. Could he do both in MLB?
Klaw: No and I have real doubts about his hit tool. Might be a 35 present grade.

Jimmy: Thanks for taking our questions and your thoughtful answer. Always look fwd to Klawchat. Have you ever been to SXSW? Did you enjoy it? I’ve been several times over the last 11 years but not since 2013. I’ve heard it has changed a lot in the last few years but I am still excited to go.
Klaw: Would love to but the timing isn’t great for my day job. Maybe when someone hires me to be the omnibus music/books/boardgame critic I’ll go.

Zach: Keith, thanks as always for being a fan of dead trees. I know you are a big Strange and Norrell fan – are there any other “fantasy” authors or titles that you’d recommend for adults in a similar vein?
Klaw: Lev Grossman’s Magicians series – I’ve read the first two, with number three on my shelf – and which is also now a Syfy series.

Anonymous: I know a lot can happen between now and June, but Coppy has said a college bat is the likely target for Atlanta at #3. Kyle Lewis an option, you think? Too high for him?
Klaw: Way too high. The only college bat I might consider up there is Corey Ray, and even he has a big question mark in the 60 Ks last year. (Never when I’m in the park, though. I swear he’s gone 12-for-10 over the games I’ve seen.)

Mike: How much time in the minors will Lazarito likely need, assuming he’s legit?
Klaw: That guy has gotten way more press than his workouts have merited. He may get his $20-30 million but I haven’t found a scout that put in a report that would get him close to that money.

Robert: I do not recall hearing much hype for Willson Contreras when he was listed as a third baseman. How much has moving to catcher full time impacted his jump in just about everybody’s prospect ratings? Or has his bat just been that much better than initially thought?
Klaw: Well he also finally started to hit last year. Tools were always there but years of poor performance made them seem irrelevant – eventually, you have to hit.

Steve: How about just if you lose a FA, you get a pick at the end of the first round. No disincentive for teams to sign players, just compensation for those who lose. Could be real simple – biggest 5 total contracts get picks at end of first round, next biggest 5 get picks at end of second round, next biggest 5 get picks at end of third round.
Klaw: I like this, as long as it’s not tied to a QO, because you get low-payroll teams with a disincentive to even offer the QO (out of fear the player takes it) and thus will see fewer compensatory picks going to the teams that in theory need them most.

Steve: I might have missed it, but what did you think of the Cespedes deal. If he opts out, it’s $27M for a year of Cespedes plus a first round pick.
Klaw: Not on it. He’s not a $27 million player and he’s not a centerfielder. By the way, that’s “if he opts out AND the Mets offer AND he signs elsewhere.”

Rob: On baseball reference, Mark Grace has negative dWAR for his career despite winning 4 gold gloves. He likely would have won more if not playing simultaneously with Will Clark. I’m open minded but can you make a case for dWAR being wrong?
Klaw: I can make a case for dWAR being wrong, especially on first basemen, but Gold Gloves are evidence of nothing except how bad major-league coaches can be at evaluating defense.

Steve: I think I read the worst thing ever this week. Did you see the “neomasculinity” group that is holding meetings to legalize rape? What is wrong with people??
Klaw: Yes, and they cancelled the meetups, but only after getting a ridiculous amount of press attention that probably drove lots of traffic and men’s rights idiots to their site. Their message is abhorrent, but not illegal here, and it’s such a fringe group that giving them publicity probably did them more good than harm. That said, I wish they’d held the meetups so opponents could go and confront them.

Michael: Do you buy every book you read or go to the library?
Klaw: It’s a mix. I get a lot of books as gifts, or gift cards to bookstores; I go to used bookstores a lot; I buy some ebooks when I see something good is on sale; and I go to the library, which is right down the street, especially for something I know I’ll never read again.

Hank: What is your opinion on the Klentak, Macphail regime in philly? Can they bring me a world series?
Klaw: So far, very good. Should learn more over the next ten months as they make more changes to the front office and overall direction.

HugoZ: If a team like Atlanta were willing to pay a bigger bonus to Lazarito than another team that wanted him
Klaw: Problem is the deal is unenforceable. If he has something go wrong – an injury, an off-field incident – Atlanta can just walk away and he could be left with nothing, or just a lot less. That’s my main issue with the current system, that neither side has any protection at all from the other party just walking away.

Steve: Who is the best pitching prospect left in the Mets system? Chris Flexen? Wow, hope they don’t need another starter anytime soon.
Klaw: Not counting Matz? I have Gsellman next up, but he’s 8th overall in the system. No other pitchers in their top 10.

Jeremy: I see some MILB leagues referred to as being pitcher or hitter-friendly. What makes them that way?
Klaw: Ballparks and altitude are the two main factors.

Matt: Do you think some portion of lefty hitters struggling against LHP comes from a self-fulfilling prophecy? Hitters are told early on how much different it is facing a lefty and they must change their approach to succeed. So, hitters alter their typical approach to face this challenge and it doesn’t work for them. It doesn’t seem that righty hitters do this when they face RHP.
Klaw: I think the number one reason is the lack of AB. RHB get way more reps vs RHP than LHB will ever get against LHP.

Steve: I’ve heard serious questions about Cechinni’s defense at SS. Can he stick there, and if not is he still a useful prospect?
Klaw: Hands and range are fine. Has a 6 arm, but had legit accuracy issues last year (out of the blue). I’d still bet on him staying there … but hey, hanging out with the team shrink wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

Rob: It’s odd that the “tanking is killing the game” conversation is so big now when arguably the best and most interesting teams in the AL (Astros) and NL (Cubs) spent the first half of this decade “tanking.” The evidence seems to indicate that tanking is good for the game when your team sucks.
Klaw: Yep. I really have no objection to it. There’s no MLB team like the 76ers right now. The Astros did get there, briefly, but remember, when Luhnow took over, the top levels of the farm system were bleak – all the talent from those Bobby Heck drafts was still about two years away at the time.

Steve: Sandy mentioned yesterday that they’ll try d’Arnaud and Plawecki at other positions during the spring – good idea? Any chance they’ll stick?
Klaw: Yeah, good idea on d’Arnaud given his problems staying healthy – I think he’s had two concussions already, plus a host of other injuries. For his own health I’d like to see him somewhere else, but I don’t see the spot for him with Conforto in LF and Duda at 1b.

Michael: Is it simply a matter of Tyrell Jenkins cutting down the walks and missing more bats for him to finally get the call to Atlanta??
Klaw: I mean, that’s not a simple matter.

Matt: I know the rankings will help answer this question, but is A.J. Reed’s potential hit/power enough to make him a superstar despite his lack of speed or defensive skill?
Klaw: How about star rather than superstar?

Tim: Early to project (and doubt he makes your top 100) but is Tyler Stephenson a sure-fire Catcher on the defensive side? He seems to be mentioned mostly as a bat-first catcher.
Klaw: Plus-plus arm, good athlete, not at all sold on the receiving or on the body staying back there. Looks a lot like Wieters, and Wieters is an anomaly and a bad framer.

Colin: Word is the Rangers are trying Josh Morgan at catcher. Thoughts on this?
Klaw: Yes, I’m surprised that got out but it is true and I love the idea. Could be a Russell Martin type back there.

Addoeh: So you’ve recently been to the Dominican and Puerto Rico. When is the scouting trip to Cuba?
Klaw: Ask my bosses. I’m in. I want to go get drunk where Hemingway used to get drunk.

Marshall: Any predictions on Sano in RF – I assume somewhere between horrendous and bad. Not a lot (any?) of guys his size patrolling OFs at the major league level.
Klaw: He could be a -5 runs guy if he puts some work into it. Great arm, actually a good athlete for someone his size. But I’ve never gotten the sense he wanted to work on defense. He just likes to hit.

JF: Given that this is likely Strasburg’s last year in DC, how would you assess his career so far? What does he need to do to become an elite pitcher—probably somewhere else in 2017?
Klaw: He’s never really pitched as aggressively as his stuff would indicate. He should be going after guys like “here it is, fuck you, try and hit it.” He nibbles, he pitches away from contact, he gets tentative when there are men on. That’s a perfectly fine approach for guys with lesser stuff. I want him to pitch like peak Verlander, who looked like he might tear your head off and was happy to just blow guys away with power, whether it was velocity or just some hellacious breaking ball.

Michael: Any reaction to the Iowa caucus?
Klaw: It’s a really dumb way to pick a candidate.

Matt: I saw pre-draft write-ups on Benintendi comparing him to guys like Jon Jay and Mark Kotsay. Are those still apt comparisons, or did he improve his stock so much last year (particularly with the bat) that he’s risen to a different level of prospect?
Klaw: Don’t think those were apt on draft day. Maybe before the college season? Kid’s got power and neither of those comps did.

Greg: Are you enjoying Savage’s Adore more than Silence Yourself? I tried several times to get into Silence Yourself, but something wasn’t clicking for me (although their live show is outstanding).
Klaw: It’s very different, still good but a real change of pace and tone. Maybe less consistent track to track, but Silence Yourself could feel a little repetitive and Adore nevre does.

Steve: Nimmo with a torn tendon in his foot. It’s starting to look like he’s never going to put it together. Is his ceiling 4th OF now?
Klaw: Yeah, I thought that was his ceiling coming out of 2015. Used to have higher hopes for him but he hasn’t developed like I expected.

Dave Stewart: The key to winning baseball is to bat your worst hitter leadoff so he gets more plate appearances than anyone, but only if he’s fast.
Klaw: The mere idea that Segura is a top-of-the-order bat with sub-.290 OBPs says everything we need to know about how Dave Stewart views baseball. He last worked in a front office in 2001, and his criteria on players seem to have remained there.

Ed: If you’re the Cubs do you continue to develop Dylan Cease as a starter? Any concerns with his delivery?
Klaw: Yes, absolutely a starter, and no on the delivery. Not even sure what you’re referring to with that.

Hank: I know the top 100 is coming next week, but do you think Orlando Arcia is major league ready? I like the trade for the Brewers, but I’m worried about them bringing up Arcia too early.
Klaw: Glove is ready. Instincts are already there. Bat probably not quite, but he wouldn’t be terrible if he went right to the majors. I think he’ll make a lot of contact and play plus defense and help the team.

Chris: In regards to the Mets & Cespedes. Isn’t it better to overpay him for 1 year then being stuck with 2-3 dead years on the back end of a 5-6 year contract?
Klaw: Isn’t it better to just not pay him at all? There wasn’t a better use for the money they gave him, Cabrera (who can’t play short at all), and de Aza?

ballsandgutters: You think Jesse Biddle is worth a spot on the Pirates 40 man roster?
Klaw: I don’t. They’ll probably outright him in March, but they’ll have to re-add him in October to prevent him leaving as a minor league free agent, and then in March 2017 he has to stay on the 40-man because a second outright would give him the right to elect free agency immediately. And I don’t see him worth a 40-man spot for all of 2017.

Claudio: Swanson and Albies will both stay at SS this year, do you see Swanson in AA and Albies in High-A to start the year? Suppose they both make it to ATL, am I wrong if I think the best dp setup would be Swanson at 2b and Albies at SS?
Klaw: I would do what you suggest – send Swanson right to AA because he played and raked in the SEC. I also think Swanson is the more likely long-term shortstop than Albies.

Scott: Do you see any chance that Marcus Semien can stick at SS? I feel like his bat would make him valuable even with slightly below average D
Klaw: I do not. Also not a very good hitter – he had a big April and then went back to his old self, .306 OBP the rest of the way with a lot of strikeouts (22-23%).

Dan: Does Casey Kelly have anything left that would make him a contributor to the Braves over the next few seasons?
Klaw: Yes, but I think they need to make a real change to his repertoire due to the lack of deception in his delivery and movement on his fastball. Maybe the answer is a cutter, or a two-seamer, but he hasn’t missed bats like his stuff should, and when that happens consistently, you have to make some kind of change.

Anonymous: Hey KLaw, thank you for doing these chats! What do you think of a Benintendi and Vazquez for Teheran swap?
Klaw: I think that makes no sense for Boston.

Mike: O’s just traded for Despaigne from SD. Does he have any potential? Or just a guy? (if that)
Klaw: Just a guy. I heard San Diego got Cosme, which is one of the best restaurants in NYC, so that’s a clear win.

Anonymous: Another key difference between “tanking” in MLB vs other sports is that it’s a much harder transition to professional baseball than for other sports. Take a top guy in NFL/NBA you have a much clearer idea of what you’re getting, correct?
Klaw: I think that’s true, but I can’t claim to know the other drafts that well – it seems like they have their share of high-profile flops at the top of the draft too.

Alex: How small do you think the win now window is in Arizona before they start getting old and regretting trading away all the young talent?
Klaw: The regret will end up in the laps of the next regime.

Frank: Hey Keith. How would you handle Anthony Alford this year. Start him in AA and move him up to AAA with success halfway through. Maybe a cup of tea in September. I worry about the Jays OF with Bautista (old and gets injured a decent amount), Saunders (Injury prone), and Dalton Pompey (unproven). Pillar seems to be the only guy I don’t worry about.
Klaw: You can’t let major-league needs dictate the development plan for a player. You move Alford up when he’s shown he has nothing left to learn at his current level. He should start in AA, but that’s a big leap for him, and he still has just under 600 total PA in pro ball. Rushing him makes less sense than rushing most prospects.

Lee: Seems like a Bradley Jr. for Sano trade seems like great match-up for both teams. Which team do you think would balk at that?
Klaw: No way the Twins do that. Not only is that a big loss of value for them, but with Buxton and Kepler, why do they need a CF?

Will: A week later, and I’m still worked up over last week’s Top Chef episode. Should the producers have realized the issues of the episode and judging and made this week a double elimination? Seems so stupid to see someone go home for making “dainty” food instead of bad food when no one knew what the hell a beefsteak was.
Klaw: I don’t get that worked up over it, but it was one of their worst episodes for that very reason. No one seemed to understand the challenge, and the challenge itself was kind of antithetical to the whole concept of the show.

Steve: Just wondering – if the Wilpon’s are indeed willing to spend $140M on payroll going forward, does this make you any more bullish on the Mets window?
Klaw: It helps, but I don’t think I’m bearish on the team. They’re probably still the favorites in the division and we saw that they’re well built for October.

Brian Morris: Max Kepler, Bradley Zimmer, Jesse Winker: are we looking at 3 OF prospects that have similar tools/outlooks? Which bat plays better long term?
Klaw: Not similar at all – Winker is a corner OF only, while the other two are above-average runners who can play CF.

Jeff R: How’s your health tool looking? I hope you’re feeling better and stronger. Thanks again for all your work.
Klaw: Still kind of tired – I slept almost two more hours this morning after getting my daughter on the bus – but the evil Levoquin did its job and has not yet blown out my tendons.

JR: Was happy to see you call out Manning in your “stick to baseball” column this week. I had heard this before, but he certainly tends to get a free pass. Also getting a free pass is Kobe Bryant. He’s making his retirement tour and you never hear anything about the CO rape.
Klaw: We pick and choose when to remember sexual assault cases. Peyton can’t legally answer questions about it, so it’s unfair to ask him directly, but completely fair to bring it up in all this bullshit talk about his “legacy.”

Alex: The biggest problem with tanking is the strategy really only works if you can get the first or second pick in the draft and all the extra money in the bonus pool that comes from those slots. With 7-8 teams tanking the strategy really doesn’t help teams picking in the 5-7 range. Remember the Astros had a lot of top picks to make the strategy work.
Klaw: Right. If the Phillies can trade for one of those competitive balance picks, it puts them in a way better spot. In fact, let’s just make all draft picks tradeable in the next CBA, like I’ve been arguing they should do for the last decade.

Chris: Do you think Lopez makes it to the Nats this year out of the pen, or does he still need to work on that command in the minors?
Klaw: Could appear this year, don’t think command will be an issue if he’s in the pen.

Chris: It seems like Josh Naylor is stuck at 1B, but do you think his bat plays enough there to still be in your top 100 prospects?
Klaw: He’s not on it and wasn’t close. Didn’t have him as a first-round talent going into the draft.

Jojo: The wife and I took our first plunge into gaming with Carcassone and Seven Wonders Duel (your rankings helped!) and we loved them. Wondering if you have any specific recommendations for a 2 player game considering our enjoyment of those two.
Klaw: I always recommend Jaipur for a purely two-player game. Here’s my review.

Nick: When do you see Taillon and Glasnow being ready for Pittsburgh?
Klaw: Glasnow by June. Taillon depends entirely on health and I don’t know enough to tell you on that one.

Mike: I would not agree you get a much clearer idea of what you are getting. Rather, you can get a player who has a much larger impact. Basketball, one player can make a much larger difference. Same with a QB in NFL…
Klaw: Strasburg was probably the clearest case of a 1-1 guy who was close to major-league ready in the last ten years, and he’s been good if not quite what was expected, certainly not enough to turn the franchise around by himself. I’m dating myself, but I remember the Magic getting Shaq and adding about 25 wins in one year, missing the playoffs in his rookie season by maybe a game. There’s no baseball equivalent to that.

Scott: Will Beede or Crick make an appearance at the big league level this year? Seems to me one of those guys could help out the bullpen since SF was looking for bullpen help? Bad idea?
Klaw: Bad idea. Crick walked a man an inning last year and I’m not sure what his outlook is. Beede is now throwing 88-89 mph sinkers, and while I’m not exactly clear on the plan there, that’s not a reliever’s pitch.

Bill: Darin gorski MLB potential?
Klaw: Sixth starter or up-and-down guy. If that.

Nick: I know it’s (really) early but have you seen any of the 2017 Draft prospects? Mark Vientos, JJ Schwarz, etc.?
Klaw: Schwarz yes, loved what I’ve seen so far, could be a top five pick (in the abstract – I don’t know the class that well yet). Haven’t seen Vientos.

Nick: Have you ever listened to Run the Jewels? If not, there’s a chance you’d like them. They have a more old school and refined sound than mainstream rap.
Klaw: Listened to both albums, didn’t like them.

Paul: KLaw – curious how many of the restaurants on Eater’s latest National 38 list you’ve tried? I know I’ve seen you write several of them up. I’ve only been to 4, all in the Southeast (Husk, Fig, Pooles, Gunshow just last weekend), but have some of the others circled for upcoming travel. Gunshow was truly awesome by the way… you should definitely check it out when in Atlanta. Would recommend going with a party of 4 or even 6 if possible, though. We were able to try every dish on the menu by going with 6. Cheers!
Klaw: Been to eight of them, yet neither of the Philly entries – Zahav is a tough reservation, and Vedge is going to have to be a solo outing since I don’t know many folks who would willingly go to a vegan restaurant. Poole’s is great. Didn’t like Oleana at all. I heard from a DC friend that people actually pay others to stand in line to get a table at Rose’s Luxury – like, this is a side job where people advertise on Craigslist that they will stand in line for you for a fee. I can’t imagine the food living up to that kind of hype.

Blueberry Johnson: Keith, would you say you have an 80 time management? You do a lot of stuff and it’s kind of amazing. Any big insights on time management you can share?
Klaw: I don’t think I would say that. I don’t watch a lot of TV, and I don’t burn a lot of time doing ‘nothing.’ I’m always busy with something, whether it’s work, reading, family time, stuff around the house. I get a lot of satisfaction from completing mundane stuff, which helps motivate me. The other day I changed some fuses in one of our cars – a very routine bit of maintenance, but I was still psyched to do it (and not pay someone else $50 or so for a five minute job).

Bama Pezz: I don’t believe for a second that Chris Correa acted alone. He probably had an IT guy helping him as well as mentioning it and sharing information to multiple people in the org. Isn’t the likelihood of him taking the fall for this for all parties to move on with minimal damage much more likely?
Klaw: I have zero inside info on this topic, but my gut response was identical to yours.

Alex in Austin: Do you see any chance these Time Warner and Fox Sports contracts with teams blow up? I can’t imagine the ratings justify these prices and as marketing dollars move away from cable to more digital media, where is the revenue going to come from?
Klaw: It does seem inevitable that the traditional cable model, pushing big subscriber fees on the customer as part of tying arrangements (which could be ruled an antitrust violation at some point, no?), is going to see an accelerating decline. We just dropped DirecTV after 14 years to take a much cheaper, smaller package as part of a Verizon FiOS bundle. Lost maybe 2-3 channels we liked, but saved a ton of money in the process.

Jon: During the Cespedes press conference, Sandy indicated the Mets will now start looking at getting the young pitchers signed to extensions. Syndergaard would be the obvious place to start for that, no?
Klaw: Of their young arms he’s the one I’d try hardest to sign, and Matz would be the least because of his injury history.

Woodman: Christian Arroyo had a good year in San Jose and fall league last year. What’s his potential and possible arrival time frame in SF?
Klaw: Not a shortstop but plus hit tool. Probably a solid two years away.

John: I’m driving across the country next week. Any recommendations for an audio book? For that format, I prefer an entertaining plot even more than usual. That’s mainly so I stay awake/alert, but also because I find I don’t retain details as much when I listen rather than read.
Klaw: Best audiobook I’ve listened to in the last two years was Bill Nye reading his own Undeniable, where he tears apart creationist claims against evolution (here’s my review). He has so much energy and infuses a lot of humor into the work that it kept me alert through a couple of long, dull drives.

bobby: Important stuff first: Best Super Bowl snack to serve? Also, morality of the move aside, now that the Yanks have the Big 3 in the bullpen, how would you use Betances? 2 innings a pop in 60 games or so? Or a strict 7, 8, 9 of the big 3 for, say, 80 games?
Klaw: If you have any thought to keeping guys healthy, days off is key. So two innings a pop for 50-60 games is better than 75 innings in 70-75 games. We don’t know much about pitcher health but I think we know, or at least have strong evidence to indicate, that rest is a big help.

Janey: How many college bats or arms come out of nowhere? In other words, are most guys who were not thought as first rounders when in high school?
Klaw: Benintendi was a rare event: A draft-eligible sophomore who was hurt his freshman year and I think skipped the summer, so he emerged very late. It’s more common for a guy like Anthony Rendon, who was little-known in high school, to show up his freshman year and suddenly look like a first-rounder, after which we get three springs and two summers of scouting looks and data to evaluate.

Chris: What happened to DJ Peterson, and do you think he’s destined to be a AAAA player?
Klaw: Hasn’t been the same since the injury to his face, but was always a bit limited anyway – 1b only, not geared to hit for both average and power.

Greg: Better comparison than Shaq (also dating myself)- Spurs lost Robinson for a year, finished last, got Duncan, and then won the title.
Klaw: Ah yes, reminds me of that year when we were on a trip to Italy and visiting my cousins in Genova during the NBA finals. I asked my younger cousin if he knew who won, and he said yes, the “Sant’Antonio Spurs.”

Taybor: Any reason you and your wife stopped at one kid? She seems to bring you so much joy that I’d think you’d want a 2nd.
Klaw: Several reasons, but two big ones: My wife was nauseous for five solid months while pregnant, and my daughter has been adamant since she was four that she does not want a sibling at all.

Mickey: Hansel Robles was quietly absolutely dominant down the stretch (2.63 era, .804 whip, 11.2 k/9, 4.64 k/bb over his last 41 innings) – should he be the mets setup man this yr? Future closer? Or are his inconsistencies too much?
Klaw: Definitely setup material. You don’t buy or trade for relievers – you make them.

Ted: Best piece of advice for an upcoming college graduate about to enter the “real world?”
Klaw: I could probably give a whole speech on this, but the hardest thing for me was learning to be professional, to act like an adult as a 21-year-old in an office in the workforce, surrounded by super smart people who would look down on my immaturity. Working harder and being more conscious of how I appeared – I’m definitely an introvert, and often shy, but back then it could manifest itself in behavior or commentary that others would find immature – even just for that first year would have made a huge difference to my career had I chosen to stay in that line of work.

Bill: But mets need matz, he’s a lhp, all others rhp ,no?
Klaw: This does not strike me as a counterargument. Who cares if you have five righties? And if Matz can’t stay healthy – he’s never thrown 150 innings in a calendar year – then why would his lefthandedness make him a better candidate for a long-term contract?

Dave: If there was no reserve clause in MLB and no player union, would players make more money than they do now? It seems to me that an open market for player services would give the players more money. So, players like Kris Bryant would make a lot more, and older players would make a lot less.
Klaw: If you had more true free agency, with players getting there at 3 or 4 years of service, then yes, the scenario you outline seems likely.

Dave: Do you think taxing the rich at over 70% would help or hurt the economy? Some of those more “socialist” European countries seemingly have little chance for climbing the economic ladder, and there is very little job creation.
Klaw: I say hurt. Didn’t we have punitive tax rates for the highest income earners (not the “rich” – that’s wealth, not income) in the 1950s, until JFK pushed through a tax cut?

Hank: Will you watch the Super Bowl?
Klaw: Eh. Maybe. It’s not a priority.

Dave: Does a soft throwing sidearm pitcher like David Berg have any place it today’s MLB? Or do you think he would just get lit up.
Klaw: Don’t see him as a big leaguer.

Mike: Is McCullers in the same group of possible aces as Berrios & Reyes?
Klaw: Reyes is a possible ace. I don’t think Berrios or McCullers is.

Nick: Re the bird with the clipped wing, would you expect it to take an additional year for him to find his swing like a guy going down with a wrist or thumb injury and not getting back to his normal power numbers until a full year after he gets back?
Klaw: Impossible to say because we don’t know how his swing will look post-surgery. Will he be restricted? Will he be reluctant to let it go, the way Heyward was for a few years after his shoulder injury? It’s not good news, certainly.

Hank: Bigger impact for the Rangers this season: Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo or Lewis Brinson?
Klaw: Gallo will get the most opportunities with the big club, but Mazara is the best bet to produce if he gets the chance.

Brian Morris: My son is just starting to get into reading…any suggestions for good children’s books?
Klaw: We loved the Paddington series. They’re good for a wide range of ages – you might need to read them to him because some of the vocab is a little advanced, but the stories are good for ages 4 to 100.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat, as i need to do some more top 100 writing and I have a phone call scheduled for 3 pm. Thanks for all of the questions. Assuming the current schedule holds, I will try to do two chats next week, one the day the org rankings come out, another the day the top 100 comes out. I’ll continue to post updates here on the dish.

Klaw: Birth, school, work, Klawchat, death.

Marshall: Do you think Gallo will ever figure out his contact issues, or he destined to become a sort of uber-Mark Reynolds type of player?
Klaw: I think where I’ve got him ranked implies that I think he’ll make more than enough contact, although I talk about it quite a bit in the player capsule. So without spoiling too much, I’ll say I think he’ll more a lot more than a Reynolds type – he’s still really young, and he’s a much more athletic kid than a lot of folks realize because he’s so freaking big.

Jackie: What penalty would you give the Cardinals for the hacking fiasco? It hasn’t to be more than just a punishment, it has to be a deterrent to the other teams against committing a similar felony, right?
Klaw: Well I would think jail was a sufficient deterrent, and I’m somewhat loath to start tagging the entire team for what may have been the acts of a single, rogue employee. (Of course, it’s possible he wasn’t acting alone, in which case, drop the hammer, Rob.)

Chris: Hey Keith, sorry if this is a dumb question, but I’m just curious how the whole “reimbursing high school signees for college tuition” works? Do you have to play a certain amount of time in pro ball? Can you only use that tuition money at certain schools? I think it’s really cool that teams do this and I just wanted to learn more, figured you could give a better, streamlined answer than anyone else
Klaw: Not a dumb question. You don’t have to play a certain amount of time, and you can use it to attend any school, even one different from the one you left to play pro ball. It’s why signing out of HS is the right move the vast majority of the time, no matter what some coach says on twitter about the “experience.” In my life, I’ve discovered that you can buy a lot of great experiences with money.

James: Who would you take number one overall in the draft?
Klaw: I have not seen Alec Hansen yet so I can’t really answer. I think the decision set should include Groome, Perez, presumably Hansen, and … man, that ended quick. I’ve seen Puk a lot and don’t think he’s 1-1 on merit, although the Phils could also choose to do a deep discount there and overspend later on.

Anonymous: How you doing?
Klaw: I’m not dead, so that’s good. Fever is gone and while I don’t still need the inhaler it’s helping. I don’t know what I had but I basically lost a week to it.

Tim: Hey Keith, hope you’re feeling better. Spring training is around the corner – and with it everyone’s favorite game – “Scout meaningless spring box scores!”. Personally, I’d rather know what you or another scouts are actually looking at in the players you are scouting during the month of March. Are you looking at mechanical changes for hitters/pitchers? Maintaining positive changes that players exhibited last year? Consistency in delivery/swing path? Or if it’s hard to scout at Spring Training, why exactly? Thanks.
Klaw: Stuff, health, bodies, mechanics, but not performance. This guy’s throwing harder, this guy has a new pitch, this guy is missing 4 mph. This guy showed up fat, this guy showed up in the Best Shape of His Life, this guy isn’t throwing like he used to. Spring training is the month of fake looks, so I try to keep it very simple to minimize the chance that I’ll get fooled.

John: What’s your view on Ian Happ’s chance at sticking at second? Does the bat play enough to be an above-average corner outfielder?
Klaw: I always had him as a 2b going back to I think his sophomore year in college. He’s absolutely agile and athletic enough. And yes, I think it’d play in RF, but that’s a much less valuable outcome.

Ryan: A friend and I need to settle an argument. Most unbreakable MLB record. My thought is Cy Young’s completed games record. His choice is Ricky’s stolen base record. Which record do you feel is most unbreakable?
Klaw: Any pitching record from before World War I is untouchable. If anything, those are going to become more distant as we stop asking pitchers to turn lineups over four times and increase the use of more relievers for longer stints.

Adam: YES!!!! Thursdays have been so boring!
Klaw: you’re telling me. I spent last Thursday on the couch trying to figure out what was real and what was a hallucination.

Theo: How does the age of a player factor into your evaluation? For instance, Blake Rutherford is 19, which is a year or more older than other HS seniors. Would a guy like Moniak, who is of normal age, be a better prospect in your eyes, since he has that extra year to develop?
Klaw: It matters and it doesn’t. (!) Historically, yes, older HS players have worse probabilities, very young HS players have much better probabilities. We would think of a 19-year-old mashing in low-A very differently than a 21-year-old doing the same; why wouldn’t we consider age the same way for amateur players? That said, there are some tools that are age-immune. Byron Buxton was past 18.5 on his draft day, but he was an 80 runner with an 80 arm, a probable 70 glove, bat speed, and the frame for power.

Jim: How good is Victor Robles? Is he already a top 15 prospect?
Klaw: Top 15 for the Nationals? Yes. I really hope you weren’t asking top 15 in baseball because no.

ProBeauNO: What’re your thoughts on Eddy Julio Martinez and Vlad Guerrero Jr.? Either potential impact players?
Klaw: Both, I think. I saw EJM work out, which is not the same as seeing him play in actual games, but if that guy was now entering his third spring of college, assuming he had two years of even adequate performance behind him, we’d be talking about him near the top of this draft.

David: Scouting reports reference “body control.” What does that mean?
Klaw: Think of it as a more comprehensive look at physical coordination. My wife and daughter love So You Think You Can Dance, and every year there are dancers who call their style “animation,” where they seem to be manipulating individual muscles in robotic movements. That’s 80 body control. And it’s important in baseball because the more you can control your muscles, the better you can repeat your mechanics, and the less you’re going to waste energy on inefficient movements.

AL (DC): Does the contract for Fister seem light? Seems rumors were two years and $10 per. But obviously those are rumors. Do you find it odd no one wanted to go more than 1 year? Especially teams (Orioles) that desperately need any and every pitching golden ticket?
Klaw: I was surprised he didn’t end up with two years somewhere, yes. It’s a perfect one-year flier – if his stuff is just gone, you release him.

Bored at Work: Read today that 92% of American girls between 3-12 have owned a Barbie at one point. Has your opinion of that toy option changed in light of the new sizes they’re coming out with? I’d guess your daughter doesn’t have any interest in such things — but, hypothetically, are you more likely to buy one for her now than, say, a year ago? (Assuming you haven’t already?)
Klaw: She never got into Barbie and we never encouraged it. She watched a couple of episodes of the new animated series and we had to ban it because it was so insulting to everyone’s intelligence.

CK: Keith, you’ve stated many times your views that college athletes should be paid for their labors, a position I certainly understand and agree with. Do you have thoughts on how we might ever get to that point, considering that we’re not starting from a blank slate and have to work in the world as it currently exists? In particular, it seems to me that the money brought in by big-time football and basketball not only supports exorbitant salaries for coaches and administrators, but allows the nonrevenue sports at big time schools, almost all of which lose money, to exist. Do you see any way to withstand the opposition the inevitable cutbacks for those sports would cause, particularly since Title IX concerns would become a big part of the issue?
Klaw: If we set Title IX aside for a moment, who cares about the other sports? Why is it the responsibility of football players to make sure the golf team still has putters? I get this argument all the time – “well, then say goodbye to non-revenue sports,” to which I say, “Okay.” Fund your own sports just like every other student club has to fund itself. Have a bake sale. But stop free-riding on the labors of other athletes.

Eric: Hi Keith, do you see the Mets drafting a pitcher with their 1st round pick this year, with the trade of Fulmer and Molina out with TJ the well is finally dry when it comes to top tier pitching prospects in the pipeline. Due to the weak free agent crop next year I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mets trade 1 of their aces if the return is right, this is more reason to go with a pitcher in the 1st round, what are your thoughts on the Mets draft plan, any names you think they may be targeting?
Klaw: I don’t see them drafting for need like that – teams that do so nearly always regret it – but I agree with your second point about them potentially trading one of the young starters. It has to be in the back of Sandy’s mind that any of those kids could blow out (again) at any time, and if the opportunity came up to trade, say, Matz, who is super talented but always hurt, for a durable asset like a high-end position player prospect, he has to at least consider whether that’s the better long-term play.

Sean: Were you surprised by the Cespedes deal? Should he have taken Nats’ offer or is he better off with short term contract?
Klaw: Nats apparently offered a ton of deferred money so the Mets’ offer was probably worth more. I’m surprised the market didn’t give him more guaranteed money, yes.

Amy: What do you expect from Trey Ball this year and going forward? What’s his projected floor/ceiling at this stage?
Klaw: This is a big year for him. Velocity backed up and has never really returned, and the loss of arm speed backed up the breaking ball too. Still a good athlete, hard worker, good frame, but the stuff is just not sufficient.

Julie: Bad thing about being sick is it will be hard for you to report to spring training in the best shape of your life.
Klaw: I feel like the shape I’m likely to report in would be trapezoid.

Jeff: Thanks for recommending Jasper Fforde. My daughter and I enjoyed working through the first three Kazam books – any idea when the fourth will come out?
Klaw: I believe he’s now saying 2017. He’s become very cagey about release dates lately. There’s supposed to be a one-off adult novel from him this spring.

Mike: I just wanted to say thank you for all your discussion of your anxiety issues. Your openness and story on Stigma Fighters prompted me to finally seek some help and it’s already paying dividends with my own anxiety disorder.
Klaw: You’re welcome. I’m thrilled to hear that it helped. That is the reason I wrote it.

Johnny (Woburn, MA): Keith, thanks for taking my question! Could you see Moncada/Benintendi reaching the Majors before the end of the year?
Klaw: Benintendi, possibly. Moncada, I highly doubt it.

Ray A.: Are the SF Giants linked to Cuban prospect LAZARITO at all? They already went over on Fox, so it seems smart for them to gamble on this potential superstar.
Klaw: I spoke to three scouts who saw him in San Cristobal last week. Not one said he was a “potential superstar” or even close to that.

Roy: Why do people assume devers cant keep his weight down for 3b? Infuriating to see such lazy analysis.
Klaw: He’s also not fat. He’s big, but not heavy or fat or out of shape or plump or adipose or any of that. Just a big guy.

Miles: You have to bet on Fister either being his 2014 self or his 2015 self… No copout “in between”. Which way do you lean?
Klaw: I think he can recapture much of 2014, but no way would I say all of it given the velo drop.

Andy: Are you still going to be able to make the whole book o prospects in 10 days? While your ESPN editors may disagree, as a fan, please don’t rush them. Put in all 26 million (rough estimate) words.
Klaw: So the top 100 and the org rankings (1 to 30) will still run Feb 8-9 or 9-10, as planned. We may push the team reports back to the following week because of the time I lost. I’m still not doing a lot of phone stuff because I have a bad cough, which is not helping.

Sean: You seem to be pretty high on dom smith, what do you expect form him as a big leaguer?
Klaw: He was the 11th pick in the draft and raked in the minors, so I don’t think I’m high on him at all. I think he’s going to hit for a very high average with some power and plus-plus defense at first. If he’s going to get to more than just “some” power, he’s going to have to start to pull the ball more.

Brian: thanks for the chat, what kind of power numbers do you expect Bogaerts to get to this year? It seemed like last year he was just focusing on improving his contact rate, slapping the ball the other way. Do you think he could jump up to 20 – 25 hrs this year if he focuses on driving the ball more?
Klaw: Yes, I do. Ball really comes off his bat well – I wouldn’t be surprised if he grew into hitting a handful of oppo homers every year too.

addoeh: What song, with your surname in the title, would you choose for your walk-up music; Breaking The Law or I Fought the Law (Clash version)?
Klaw: Breaking the Law. More intimidating, which clearly I need.

Sean: Do you have a scouting report or opinion of Thomas Eshelman – HOU?
Klaw: He’s a Phillie now. Fifth starter type. Outstanding command of fringy stuff.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Kevin Maitan? Isnt he too young for the type of hype he is receiving?
Klaw: He can really hit, and there’s going to be power there. As for him being too young … I mean, there’s no appropriate age to compare someone to Miguel Cabrera, right? I’m more concerned about the joke of a system that lets him be “locked up” by a team 18 months before the signing date.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: How soon do we see Giolito?
Klaw: August. Just a guess but they’ve handled him so carefully it’s going to end up slowing his march to the majors.

Raphael: Hypothetical question: If a player racks up 100 WAR (a clear hall of famer), then continues playing and racks up -60 WAR (40 career WAR, not a hall of famer), should this player still make the hall of fame?
Klaw: I would actually say yes, although I know MGL had a big rant on Twitter a few weeks ago where he made a decent argument that the answer should be no.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Speaking of Cespedes, would be shocked to see him revert to his .260/.300/.450 slashline?
Klaw: Not at all. I don’t see any reason to think he suddenly became a different player because he beat the crap out of some bad pitching at the ideal time last year. (Slight exaggeration there.)

Jeremy: How much are tools learned or innate? Are some tools more learnable/developable than others?
Klaw: Tools are not learned. Skills are learned, mechanics are learned, but tools are innate.

Frank: Glad you are feeling better. Never saw you comment on the giants signing of Denard Span. Curious what your thoughts were on this deal? Thanks
Klaw: Money was fine, but don’t like him to play CF there – that’s a big park, with some flyball guys on staff – for the next three years. Thought they should have aimed for a better defender, even though I think the contract itself was probably just about right.

Ed: What are your favorite Rex Stout novels? Fer de Lance and Over My Dead Body are at the top for me. Thank you for doing these chats and sharing your opinions on your passions.
Klaw: I love both of those and Some Buried Caesar.

Charles: Even Jeter would get benched before he put up -60 WAR.
Klaw: I assume his question was prompted by Griffey’s career, where he was a zero or worse from age 30 on. So, if you’re a HoFer for 11 years – like, inner-circle good – and then just do some stat-padding that doesn’t really help the team, are you a HoFer or not?

Marshall: Tyler Duffey cam out of relative no where to be probably the Twins best pitcher down the stretch last season, I can’t assume that will be his ceiling going forward, but what do you think?
Klaw: Agreed. Fifth starter. Nothing he ever did before indicates he can keep doing what he did.

Alex: What about the system has him locked up? If someone comes along and blows away the supposed offer he has from the Braves what prevents him from taking it?
Klaw: Those deals are very, very rarely broken. The entire system is built on mutual trust. If you, as a trainer, renege on a deal with one club to take more money from another, teams will not commit money to your players the following year. Now that said, if I were GM of a team not under the penalty for 2016-17, I’d absolutely call Maitan’s guy on July 1st right around midnight and offer him $8 million and just DARE him to turn it down. And when he did, I’d make sure it became public, so MLB has to change the system. It is horribly broken and Manfred has a great opportunity to scrap it and start over.

JD: Speaking of hallucinations, have you watched/will you watch The Knick or Hannibal? Both incredible for different reasons, both very difficult to watch sometimes.
Klaw: Neither. I will not watch Hannibal. That kind of pandering does not appeal to me.

Jeff: How did Ian Kennedy get 5 years? Ian Kennedy!
Klaw: I think that’s my least favorite deal of the offseason, but the offseason isn’t over yet.

Scott of Lincolnshire: You’ve been advocating that swing bullpen position for years. Are teams like the Cubs fitting your vision of how a full pitching staff should look like? A couple of studs at the top, and then a bunch of #4/5 starters to fill out the rotation and half the bullpen?
Klaw: Yes, looks like Wood and Warren and possibly Richard will all be longer relievers this year. I love it.

Aubrey: At what point can Astros’ fans fairly question if Jim Crane is just unwilling to spend money on free agents? I know the team was a year or so ahead of schedule in 2015, but they have a very low payroll vs. Market size, and have clear needs that could be addressed.
Klaw: Oh, you can ask that now. Go ahead. He’ll answer you as soon as he finishes dealing with the cash call from his investors.

Keith: Re: Dom Smith – I’ve seen other reports that people are divided on the power thing. What you describe sounds vaguely Keith Hernandez- like – what’s wrong with an awesome defensive 1st baseman who hits 15 homers, lots of doubles and .300/.350 on base? Sounds like a star to me.
Klaw: These “other reports” are scouting the stat line, not the player. Anyone can sit home, read players’ stats off Baseball-Reference, and pretend to rank prospects.

Mike: Why didn’t Ke’Bryan Hayes go higher in the draft?
Klaw: I believe because people saw a lack of power in a corner player. But if he’s a 70 defender who never strikes out and hits .280 with a .360 OBP and 10 homers … I mean, Bill Mueller wasn’t even that good and he was a solid regular.

PRS: Are thinking about a re-fresh on the iOS board game rankings?
Klaw: I’m thinking about a lot of things I’d like to do right now and can’t because I’m like a walking corpse and still have to do the top 100. I finished The Caine Mutiny, The Mearseault Investigation, and The Vorrh in the last week and don’t have time to write any of them up.

Marshall: The Twins have gotten some criticism from fans for not going hard enough after new RP – however, I actually think we can get more bang for our buck by augmenting the bullpen with your power arms that are near the majors (Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc).
Klaw: Yeah that is the worst possible thing they could do. Plus ownership clearly doesn’t want to spend a ton on payroll, so why would Ryan spend it in the place where ROIs tend to be terrible?

Greg: What are your thoughts on Blake Rutherford? Do you think he is #1 on the braves early list at #3?
Klaw: I don’t think teams really have “early lists” like that now when most players won’t start playing for a month. I also don’t think he’s at all their kind of player, based on that group’s draft history. He’s a bat, but not an athlete.

Brenden: If you’re the Rangers how do you handle Profar coming back? Odor and Andrus look to have him blocked in the infield.
Klaw: Let him go to AAA and play every day for a while. It’s quite possible this will work itself out via injury, an external trade offer, or non-performance by Andrus.

Keith: I know you pay little attention to “other reports” and view players through your own lens but are there other scouts/websites etc. whose opinions you value even when different than your own?
Klaw: I think Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB do a fantastic job. Baseball America remains very thorough and if I have a dumb question on a player (like how tall is he, or what HS did he attend) they’re the best resource. Chris Crawford at BP worked for me and I’ve always thought highly of his eye. And Kiley McDaniel (RIP) always did great work for me and then for FG.

Raphael: I was thinking more Rose than Griffey. The question is less about players accruing -60 WAR (which is obviously never ever going to happen) than if we should discredit players for awful performances in addition to their great ones, and if so, how much.
Klaw: I think the subjective argument against Rose is that for the last 900 games of his career, he was probably hurting his teams rather than helping them, and some of that was in pursuit of a personal milestone. (I would bet a lot of folks don’t remember how bad he was in 1980, when the Phillies won the WS, but first basemen with ISOs of 0.073 are not terribly valuable creatures.) The selfishness of his actions at the end of his career should leave a bitter taste in everyone’s mouths. Does that cancel out a 75-WAR career beforehand? Probably not, but I’m open to the discussion. Of course, now we know what a terrible person he is, so this is academic.

Alex in Austin: What does Connor Jones need to show you this year to be a top 5 pick?
Klaw: I think he gets there with a strong statistical performance and consistent velocity. He can be 92-95 as a starter with sink and the good changeup and then we’re just debating little things. He doesn’t have the red flags of every other college starter in the draft, but he also doesn’t have that sexy 98 mph fastball.

David: Raimel Tapia has a reputation for an unorthodox swing/approach. How confident are you that he can succeed at the plate in the majors?
Klaw: He does not have that “reputation.” He has an unorthodox swing, period. I’ve never seen anyone hit like it, and with two strikes he looks like an ostrich trying to hide its head in the sand. (I know they don’t really do that.) I think he has exceptional hand-eye coordination, though, and that alone will get him TO the majors. To succeed, he’s going to have to develop more of a plan at the plate and some better recognition of spin.

Todd: Think Tyler White can have some Billy Butler-esque medium high OBP medium high power seasons as a DH?
Klaw: Yes I do. Don’t sleep on him just because he’s 5’10” and a little, um, adipose?

James: Can you comment on the Bob Ryan suspension?
Klaw: No because I don’t know what you’re talking about.

David: Reading “Chasing the Scream”. Does Sheriff Arpaio have a role in Pres. Trump’s administration?
Klaw: At some point, does Trump say to these endorsers, “nah, I’m good, thanks.” Because next up will be the head of the Aryan Nations or something.

jay: Thoughts on the initial Shapiro/Atkins regime in Toronto, fans are revolting. How would you rate their offseason to date?
Klaw: Jays fans are revolting? Come on, they’re perfectly nice people, don’t say that about them.

Mike: Fangraphs’ projections are pretty down on the Giants’ infield. Was last year for real, or is the concern about regression legit?
Klaw: I’d absolutely take the under on Crawford’s power, Kelby’s whatever, and probably Panik’s BABIP. But I think Duffy can really hit and Panik will still put the ball in play a ton.

Chris: Would a Ref for Cowart trade be fair and make sense? Better long term organizational fits position-wise.
Klaw: Probably not, because Refsnyder isn’t a second baseman.

Charles: What MLB players (if any) have the LeBron James power of getting a manager fired?
Klaw: I truly wonder – based on zero inside intel – what would happen if Mike Trout’s agent said to Arte Moreno, “Mike is unhappy with the manager.” That seems like the one player and the one situation where it might really topple the mountain.

Tim: I’m so confused when people say things like ” I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mets trade 1 of their aces if the return is right…” when a team is in the middle of a contending period. Good teams don’t actually trade established, high value assets like an “Ace” during a contending period do they? I understand pitchers are volatile but aren’t they also the most irreplaceable part of a team?
Klaw: I don’t think they’re the most irreplaceable part of a team, but also, the return is the key variable. If you can trade Steven Matz for Bryce Harper, you do it. That’s a lopsided example, but what if the Pirates called and offered you Gregory Polanco for Matz? A five-tool guy who’s already made some adjustments in the majors for a pitcher who is certainly more valuable right now on a day-by-day basis, but who has yet to throw 150 innings in a pro season?

bobby: I know you have been suspect of L Severino’s ability to stay healthy with his arm action. If you were Girardi/Cashman would you come up with a different plan for him to protect against that, use up his bullets now and figure it out later, or have those concerns abated for you?
Klaw: Two arguments here. One, you could say we want to protect him, so we’re going to make him strictly a three-times-through-the-order guy, and maybe put some low pitch count on him too. Or, two, you could say, fuck it, they ALL get hurt at some point, and he’s been great for us, so just use him normally and if it ends some time, well, at least we got value while we could. I kind of lean towards the latter. I hate the delivery, but some bad deliveries last for years and some good ones blow out.

Thomas: I’ve seen you speak highly of it in the past, but would Raglan Road still be your go-to recommendation for Disney Springs? Thanks.
Klaw: Downtown Disney. Still like it a lot for a casual dinner. I think the best restaurant on the property is Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Dave: What do you think the odds are that Sandoval’s offense and defense bounce back to career levels in 2016 and that Ramirez can play a passable first base?
Klaw: Low, low, high.

Hank: Out of the 5 tools, which do you see as the most important?
Klaw: People will overlook many sins if you can hit.

Chris: I didn’t see a write-up on the Scott Kazmir signing. What have been your thoughts on the Dodgers’ offseason, specifically the construction of the rotation? Should they have just signed Greinke or do you like the depth added with Kazmir, Maeda and Yasiel?
Klaw: I would have signed Greinke rather than go with the quantity approach. I don’t think Sierra is MLB rotation depth for this year, though. Probably further down the line.

Kieran: Thoughts on Conforto’s numbers for a full year? Is he a star in the making with a middle of the order bat or does he not have that upside?
Klaw: I think he’s a star in the making – .400 OBP with 20-25 HR and good LF defense? Maybe 25 HR is too optimistic, but even 20 HR would make him a star with that other stuff.

Michael: Has Clint Frazier’s development thus far been what you would have expected or would you be a bit concerned?
Klaw: It’ s been what I would have expected, but I had real concerns about the hit tool in HS and frankly see all the same issues there today.

Chris: Given your normal propensity to be (rightly) player-centric at all levels of baseball, I am surprised by your Sev answer. Team uses him up and blows him out before he’s had a chance to earn real money?
Klaw: Isn’t that right for the team? I’m not offering a moral judgment but what I think is sound business advice.

Tom: Have the pirates been deliberately forgoing power for contact in the draft recently(and in free agency for that matter)? It seems like every hitter they have drafted the last two years is a contact hitter with modest power potential.
Klaw: Contact is a very rare skill in MLB right now. Perhaps they’re responding to that. A team without a lot of power but whose hitters put the ball in play all the time did just win two straight AL pennants, so maybe it’s not a bad idea?

mike: aaron sanchez has put on 25 pounds this offseason “working out” with stroman. assuming no overhaul to his delivery, this doesn’t change the outlook for him as a starter does it?
Klaw: No. Until he restores his old delivery he’s probably going to have to work out of the bullpen.

Nils: Can Jon Singleton claim and hold on to the 1B job for the forseeable future? Or is he just keeping the seat warm for Reed?
Klaw: I would not be at all surprised if Reed made a real push for that job in March. He might just be the best option today, and while I know about OMG SUPER TWOOOO and all that, I’d rather get another 150 PA from him now versus saving a million bucks in 2019.

Johnny: How do you find all the articles for your weekly Stick to Baseball? Twitter generally?
Klaw: Twitter, facebook, noodling around, often I am reading something I found on twitter but the link that ends up in StB is something else on that site that proved more interesting.

Johnny: Do you ever skip words/chapters/pages when reading or are you just an awesome speed reader? I read slow because I often repeat sentences or even pages to really absorb them but I end up reading very slow.
Klaw: If I’m skipping content it’s time to put the book down. I got 30 pages into The Uplift War last week and found myself glazing over all his made-up words so I bailed.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Dan Vogelbach. Now that I’ve mentioned him, I think we can all feel better about our lives.
Klaw: Indeed, and now our chat has ended, let us go in peace. Current plan is a chat next week and two the week after, one on org top 30 day, one on top 100 day. As always watch this space, twitter, facebook for updates. Thanks for your patience!

Klaw: Don’t laugh – I heard it happened before. Klawchat.

Eric, Arlington, VA: Hi Keith, how the hell did David Eckstein get two votes for the HOF? I don’t know what’s more absurd, him getting two or him getting twice as many votes as Garret Anderson, who is probably 10x better.
Klaw: I have two problems with these votes. One is that they show those voters aren’t taking the responsibility and privilege of voting very seriously. If you don’t want to respect the vote, fine – abstain. Surrender your vote. But don’t throw away votes on the Ecksteins or the Jay Bells of the world. The other is that voters might vote for clearly unqualified candidates rather than voting for candidates with better cases. Chaz Scoggins voted for Eckstein; his ballot was otherwise quite good, with 8 players I’d have had on my own list of 10. But he could not possibly argue that Eckstein was the 10th best player on the ballot – better than Edmonds or Trammell, to name two guys he omitted. So he voted for, say, the top 9 players in his opinion, plus someone who was definitely not the 10th-best … and that 10th-best guy would have benefited far more from the vote.

Bruce: Are you starting to load up on stock (or index funds) right now, or waiting to see how much further the markets will drop?
Klaw: I don’t try to time the market. I invest in index funds (basically just my 401k … we’ve put money into renovating our house rather than investing) and just add every month.

Nick: Hi Keith… I have made my way through all of Chandler’s and Hammett’s works and am currently about midway through MacDonald’s Archer stories. Have a recommendation for what should be next for a hard-boiled fan?
Klaw: Big fan of Rex Stout’s Nero Wolfe novels, although they don’t have the violent aspect of the other two. You might also like Jim Thompson’s noir crime novels.

Jason: With Oakland trading Lawrie that Donaldson trade looks really really really bad for Beane doesn’t it? I mean one prospect for Donaldson is crazy.
Klaw: It’ll never look like a good deal for Oakland but Barreto might be a star and is at least a damn good prospect.

Jeff: I don’t understand the love for Hoffman and not for Edgar Martinez. How can you bash a guy for not playing defense but applaud a guy for only pitching one inning?
Klaw: Because otherwise rational writers and fans remain obsessed with the save statistic.

Justin (DC): Re: Raines and Bagwell in the Hall of Fame, Raines and Bagwell got very close this year, but do they have a shot next year? I worry that both (particularly Raines) were helped a great deal by the voter purge, but the voter pool will not change as much next year. Without change in the voter pool, will he get the 6% he needs to join?
Klaw: Raines will benefit from his last year on the ballot; I don’t think any player has gotten as close as those two guys did without getting in. We should see those two and at least one of Vlad (whose reputation exceeds the value advanced metrics put on his career) or Pudge (who will probably get blacklisted by some voters over PED suspicions). It’s not out of the question we get Hoffman too.

Mitch Cupcheck: Can you help settle a chili debate? My wife likes to saute the peppers and onions we use before they enter the dutch oven with the meat and other ingredients. My thought is, with chili being more of a stew, throwing them in raw and letting the whole thing simmer for 90-120 minutes will soften them plenty. Which side are you on?
Klaw: Sweat them, don’t saute them.

Mitch Cupcheck: By the way, how is your daughter feeling?
Klaw: Thanks for asking. She feels better, and the fever has been down for over 24 hours now, but she’s still coughing like she’s had a pack-a-day habit since birth. I think she’s also got a little cabin fever since, with the pneumonia and the holidays, she hasn’t been in school in over two weeks.

Michael: What do you think of Vlad Guerrero’s case for the HOF? His fWAR is a lot lower than I would have guessed.
Klaw: I think he’ll get in anyway, but his “analytical” case is a hard one – he gets crushed for bad defense once his legs started going. It’s a bit of the Sheffield argument, although Sheff is also hurt by PED suspicions. If Sheff had been a full-time DH his whole career, he’d have much more support from the online/analytical crowd.

Derek Harvey: How do you like the Chris Carter signing for Milwaukee. Of the 1B FA out there, which would you have taken were you the Brewers?
Klaw: Solid scrap-heap signing. Type of move they should be looking to make while they wait for the farm system to spit out more big leaguers.

Elton: Paul DePodesta to the Cleveland Browns is not a move I would have ever expected but (as a Browns fan) intrigues me a lot. Curious that he would leave baseball though, no?
Klaw: No, I think Depo’s a brilliant guy who enjoys intellectual challenges, and will certainly find one there, probably exceeding anything he was likely to find in MLB.

John: Are you shocked that Edmonds fell off the ballot?
Klaw: No, but I wish he had not. He was at least a borderline candidate, and someone I would have likely checked off if I had a ballot and had more than ten slots.

Anonymous: Rank these sketch comedy show: Python, SNL, Kids in the Hall, Mad TV
Klaw: Python over everyone.

Tom: What was AJ Pollock’s perceived ceiling when he was drafted? It wasn’t this high, right?
Klaw: Right. I don’t think anyone saw this power ceiling. I absolutely did not.

Johnny (Woburn, MA): What is the ceiling of Rafael Devers on the Red Sox? More of a Wily Mo Pena type, or Miguel Sano? Thanks!
Klaw: I think his ceiling is more that of a white guy.

Tom: Not a question, but I did want to tell you that your review of Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell caused me to purchase it on iTunes. I loved the book, and I was unsure if the series would live up to it. Thanks!
Klaw: Glad to hear it – hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If you hate it, please don’t fire walnuts at me.

JT: Does the Brewers return for Gomez look better now because of the saturated outfield market in FA?
Klaw: I think it looks better now because Houser looked so much better after he got to Milwaukee.

Nick: I’m getting more and more excited about JP Crawford. If he reaches the upper quartile of his potential, do you think he could be a .300/.400/.500 type of guy? Essentially what I’m asking is if you think the power potential is there for something like that.
Klaw: Don’t think he’ll have that kind of power but I do think he could peak at .300/.380/.450. The guy you described is a runaway MVP.

sam: no question this time, just a thanks for the chats, and a comment that (based on the chats & this blog) you’re an interesting dude.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and thank you. I hope to be interesting because it keeps me employed. Plus I don’t want to ever be boring.

BirderBob: Trey Mancini strikes me as a guy whom the prospect analysts don’t love, but who simply gets it done. Am I crazy think he’s the Orioles starting 1B by the end of the year?
Klaw: Scouts don’t like him either. Yes, I think you’re crazy to think that.

Brian: Matt Strahm in the Royals system. Do you like him as a prospect and do you think he is a starter or a bullpen guy? If a starter what kind of upside do you see? Thank you.
Klaw: Chance for a starter but much more likely a quality reliever. Has thrown harder in the past than what I saw from him in the playoffs.

David: So with the recent voter purge for the HOF, I found it odd that the ex-Rockies’ beat writer for the Denver Post published his ballot today, giving full disclosure that he no longer covers baseball and instead has been the Denver Broncos’ beat writer for the last two years. I knew this already since I read him in the Post daily, but just wondering why he didn’t lose his vote… wasn’t the point to eliminate everyone who doesn’t cover the game regularly any more?
Klaw: They eliminated voters who were at least ten years away from covering the game, I believe. I think it’s a great first step although I’d be fine with further pruning.

dlf: I need advice from a coffee snob – how does a moka (not mocha) compare to an espresso and is getting a small moka pot a good addition?
Klaw: Espresso is brewed at a much higher pressure (at least 9 bar) than coffee from a moka pot so it’s a totally different product. A moka pot is a lot cheaper than a real espresso machine.

Jason: Is franklyn kilome a top 100 type prospect?
Klaw: I don’t think so, although I haven’t started assembling the global 100 yet (I do that last).

Fitzy: My theoretical ballot for next year: Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, Walker, Pudge, Guerrero. Does this make sense to you?
Klaw: Yes, mine would probably look quite similar.

Joe: How often do you read books a second time? Do you think rereading a book is a waste of time that could be spent reading a new book? Soooooo many books, so little time!
Klaw: I have read about 1100 books in my life and I think I’ve read fewer than 20 books twice. I read mostly fiction and if I already know the plot it’s hard to maintain my interest in reading a novel a second time around.

jay: Can Connor Greene fill a bullpen role in the big leagues this season? or should he be left in the minors?
Klaw: Leave in the minors. Rushing Castro didn’t do him any favors.

Jon: Anderson Espinosa future ace potential?
Klaw: Sure, although at 17 he’s got a lot of physical/health hurdles to clear.

Dustin: What are your thoughts on the Rangers/Marlins talks of Chi Chi for Ozuna?
Klaw: Don’t see why they’d want Ozuna with Brinson close to ready.

Mike: I believe Bagwell/Raines should get in, but it’s a joke that so many people would change their vote. They are either HOF’s in your opinion or not. Just as dumb that Piazza had to wait four years. Also, when I read your tweet yesterday I thought it said Baines will get in next year.
Klaw: I think most of the voting is dumb. We have way too many voters who don’t take the responsibility seriously. That’s how someone like Raines, who was obviously a HoFer when he played and whose career, evaluated objectively, more than meets the established standard, is going to take ten years to get in.

Scott: Can you compare the bats of Jesse Winker and Josh Bell? I know Bell changed positions so the comparison may make a little less sense. But I’m curious about their career paths. Is it as simple as Winker safer floor lower upside and Bell the more pop but average might not stay? Both take their walks. Does Bell give up switch hitting? Thanks very much.
Klaw: Bell has more upside but I don’t think his floor is that different; he has exceptional hand-eye coordination and great plate discipline, but has untapped power Winker can’t match.

Matt: What would be a reasonable stat line for Hector Olivera this season?
Klaw: I’m just not on it – he may have some power but the approach isn’t great and every scout I’ve spoken to about him has killed his lack of athleticism.

Ray Grace: Assuming the deal goes through what is Maeda’s ceiling for the Dodgers?
Klaw: Fourth starter type. Doesn’t seem to be real physical or durable and he’s already had some little arm issues.

Ray: Can Ian Happ handle 2b on an everyday basis? Can he be a .275-20 HR-20 SB type hitter for the Cubs?
Klaw: I think he can although they’ve also considered playing him in CF. He’s a pretty good athlete despite a body that doesn’t immediately look it.

Michael: I don’t think either should be in, but how does Hoffman do so much better than Wagner? Shouldn’t voters who value closers dig a little deeper and see they were pretty similar?
Klaw: Saves. It’s entirely about saves. That one stat weighs far too heavily in voters’ minds.

White haired clown: Obviously, frank isn’t the #1 in Boston, but when I saw the David Price contract all I could think was here we go again with the reckless spending philosophy and long term structural problems. Any comment?
Klaw: I don’t agree – no problem with that contract, and I don’t think Frankie Troglodytidae is making the calls there.

Sam: Your thoughts on jeff Kent as a HOF? Numbers are ver favorable to biggio but no where near the amount of support. Why do you think that is?
Klaw: Poor defensive player with makeup questions and unfair suspicions of PED use?

Colin: Thoughts on Alex Gordon deal?
Klaw: Very good deal for KC. Salary is in line with or even below what offense costs right now, and while I preferred three years given his age, four isn’t unreasonable.

Michael: The Dodgers are really accumulating talent in their front office. Is that a little bit of a market inefficiency?
Klaw: Or they’re trying to reenact the opening credits of “Too Many Cooks.”

Steve: Have any of the people who did not vote for Griffey been identified yet? If so did they explain their logic?
Klaw: No, of course not. There is zero enforced accountability in this process.

Roddy: What is the most optimistic callup time for Benintendi?
Klaw: Schwarber and Conforto reached the majors about a year after signing. I don’t see why Benintendi couldn’t do the same.

Jeff Chisholm: Do you agree that the Oregon “protestors” should face felony charges once their temper tantrum ends?
Klaw: They should face charges but I don’t know what the applicable laws are.

Marshall: Longenhagen, your co-pilot on ESPN for scouting/draft articles, had a great point about the potential growth in popularity of baseball in Korea. Just as comment, wouldn’t it be awesome to baseball take hold as a major sport in Korea, or in a place like Germany should Kepler pan out?
Klaw: Yep, I’m always rooting for players from novel countries – did you know the Twins had a GCL pitcher this year from Moldova? – to succeed for this very reason.

Steve Culber: Just curious…..why are you so high on BBC shows and rarely speak of the (in my opinion) superior HBO shows?
Klaw: Perhaps I don’t think those superior HBO shows are superior? I do find British shows in general focus more on plot and dialogue and less on action or violence to move things along.

Mike: Captain Jetes the first to 100%?
Klaw: I still say no one does it.

Lee Snyder: My favorite porn star is Savanna Samson…who is yours?
Klaw: Find me one who wasn’t previously a victim or rape or sexual abuse and maybe we can talk.

Tom: For all the (well-deserved) criticism that the D-Backs’ front office receives with regard to prospect valuation, is it fair to say they do a good job with prospect development? It seems like they are bringing up a good number of their prospects and that they exceed expectations more than would be expected.
Klaw: The current regime has only been there a year, so I think it’s way premature to credit or blame them for player development results.

jay: who would you prefer over the next five years Dalton Pompey or Kevin Pillar
Klaw: Pompey has much more offensive upside and is a good defender. Pillar is a lot like Kiermaier for me – you have to place an enormous amount of trust in single-year defensive metrics to believe they will continue to be as valuable as their WAR totals from 2015 indicated.

Tyler: Did the John Hart make a mistake by publicly saying he expects the Braves to be back in contention by 2017? At this point, that seems rather unlikely, right?
Klaw: Unlikely given where the Mets are and where the Nats could be. Not totally outrageous given the state of their farm system at the moment.

Corey: If you were made the HoF czar, how many players roughly would you take out (Fingers, Rice, etc) and how many players do you think you would add in who are off the ballot now (Trammell, Dewey, etc) ?
Klaw: Trammell, Whitaker, Edmonds, Evans all would go in. I’d take a lot more out – Rice, Sutter, Catfish Hunter, Lloyd Waner, Maranville, Hack Wilson, Lindstrom, and more.

Patrick: Which sitcoms are you watching these days? I know you were a big fan of Parks and Rec and its great cast. I’m finding Brooklyn Nine-Nine’s cast very good as well.
Klaw: Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Masters of None are it.

JC: Will the Mets hit enough to really contend next year? They’ve lost their 3 and 4 hitters with not much replacing them.
Klaw: But they’ll also get a full year of Conforto, Walker to replace Murphy, hopefully a healthy Wright, even a healthy Lagares would be an improvement.

John MN: What do you think of the game theory voters: I think there are > 10 HoF on the ballot and Griffey is getting in no matter what, so vote for the 10 next.
Klaw: The only rational argument I can see for omitting him – but if that were the case, wouldn’t these three voters have spoken up by now?

Matthew: I have quite athletic 7 & 8 year old boys who really love sports, but they are pressured at this early age to pick a sport and specilize in it all year long (especially here in Hawaii). I don’t want to force them to pick one this early, as I think it will most likely lead to burn out, but if I don’t, they won’t develop. How important is it to develop skills specific to a sport, versus letting them play different sports and increasing their overall athleticism, for future sports opportunities?
Klaw: I don’t have a good, informed answer to that, but several sports-medicine experts have decried such early specialization.

JC: Do you workout?
Klaw: Girl, look at this body.

Steven Avery: Any interest in Making a Murderer?
Klaw: No because it will likely infuriate me. I’m sure it’s an excellent series, but that this shit goes on in the United States – probably all the time – is beyond depressing. We can’t make a ten-part documentary about every single miscarriage of justice, so you know most of them go unpunished.

Anonymous: With minimal salary on the books in the next year, would you look into any of the better free agents left if you’re the Phillies?
Klaw: Yes, but only if they were players likely to either 1) offer trade value in July or November or 2) to help the major league club in 2018.

JC: You should watch New Girl. It’s great.
Klaw: I tried, but I didn’t find it funny.

Marshall: What would the workload/expectations be for Brady Aiken coming into the year? I am not a Cleveland fan, but hate to see young players have their careers stopped by injury, so I am hoping for him.
Klaw: Guessing he doesn’t pitch at all till extended spring, which would be about 13 months off surgery, maybe not till June, which would be 15 months. Can’t rush him given the history there. I want to see him healthy, and for everyone who suspected the TJ surgery wouldn’t work out the same as it would for most pitchers to be wrong. But we won’t know much until he’s ready to throw at full strength and I see no reason for Cleveland to rush that.

Eric: Would you ever entertain an offer to run a team in a sport other than baseball?
Klaw: Can’t see myself enjoying that.

Mike: Why do competitive balance picks exist? The “disadvantaged” D-backs just signed Greinke for almost 200M
Klaw: They’re yet another terrible policy holdover from the Selig years. Both those picks and free-agent compensation should be axed in the next CBA. Just sever the draft from free agency. I will be curious to see if either side tries to alter the top of the draft to discourage “tanking,” however.

Mike P: I understand and agree with the arguments against Hoffman’s HOF candidacy. But I think it’s hypocritical to use the “HOF as a museum” argument to vote for PED guys (which I’m in agreement with) and not apply to Hoffman who succeeded at one stat, that while incredibly flawed and arbitrary, has been celebrated by the baseball establishment. Should “saves” be represented in the HOF? (Again, wouldn’t vote for Hoffman, but I’m not losing sleep about people who did for this reason)
Klaw: The problem I have with that is that the media invented the save (well, one mediot in particular), then celebrated players who racked up a lot of them. It feels awfully self-congratulatory, all while the stat in question has no real meaning.

Eric: In theory, if you could take a dominant reliever like Betances and stretch him out a bit so that he usually pitches 2 innings each time out and maintains about the same effectiveness over 120-130 innings per season, could that be as valuable as say a good #3 starter?
Klaw: Yes, I think it could/would be, although you would probably have to give that pitcher at least one day off after each outing.

Joey: Speaking of players from “novel countries” do you see any hope for Gift Ngope to have a major league career?
Klaw: Could see him get a cup of coffee but that’s probably it. Same as happened to Alex Liddi. Heck, MLB should even encourage a last-place team to do so some September so they can market it back in South Africa.

Tom: Hi Keith, enough with the HoF “controversies.” I’m wondering specifically about Benintendi, and how you see him profiling. Assuming he stays in CF, does he have 60 potential? More? Less? And if he were to move to RF, does he become a bit less, well, special? Thanks.
Klaw: Absolutely stays in CF for me – above-average runner who played CF well in college. It’s star upside, just without a whole lot of track record coming into 2015.

MIke: How much of C. Gonzalez’ salary will the Rockies need to eat to get some kind of meaningful prospect in return for him?
Klaw: I feel like someone would want him at $12 million a year for the next two years enough to give up a prospect for that, which would leave them paying $13 million of the $37MM he’s still owed.

Marshall: The medical community has made great strides in fixing injuries that used to be career threatening, like torn ACL, patella tendon, meniscus, etc. TJ surgery has seemingly even had an increased success rate in the last decade. But it seems like shoulder surgery improvements haven’t quite caught up yet, and maybe that is only my perception as a not-doctor. Maybe the rotator cuff muscles are just more delicate?
Klaw: The shoulder joint is substantially more complicated than the elbow joint and I doubt shoulder surgeries will ever become as routine as TJ.

Ciscoskid: Susac for Ozuna, is there equal value despite the stated desire for SP by all the reports?
Klaw: Probably, although I think I’d rather have the six years of Susac than four of Ozuna, although the Giants don’t have the need for Susac and they have a real short-term need for a RHH outfielder.

Adam: Are you a believer in Ender Inciarte?
Klaw: I believe he exists, yes.

Ciscoskid: If I am the GM of the Rockies I stop chasing the unicorn pitcher who can be dominant in Coors and build the best lineup that bludgeons teams. Is this the better way to build that roster and then hope you find a unicorn of a SP?
Klaw: It’s closer to the approach I would take in that job – build the best lineup possible, without totally ignoring defense (we know the damage allowing a high BABIP can do there), and toss the traditional pitching model entirely. O’Dowd tried to do this but frankly I think he had the wrong manager for it … well, Tracy was the wrong manager on a lot of levels, but especially for implementing an entirely new pitching paradigm.

Rob: In the years Hoffman was a primary closer (1994-2009), he averaged about 36 saves a year. In 2015, 11 pitchers saved that many games. Ten more pitchers saved at least 30. It’s just not that special of a skill–putting Hoffman in the Hall of Fame is basically rewarding him for staying healthy for 15 years.
Klaw: In a role where staying healthy and effective has been difficult. I don’t argue that he was better than many closers, but he was not exceptional in any aspect of the game except for the saves. Hoffman had 28.0 career rWAR in 1089 innings with a 2.87 ERA while pitching most of his career in great pitchers’ parks. K-Rod has 23.9 career rWAR in 892 innings with a 2.69 ERA while pitching part of his career in the AL. Is K-Rod a Hall of Famer? Because if Hoffman is, K-Rod is going to be too.

Paul: Does Addison Russell have another level to him? Does take his game up another notch?
Klaw: Several. I think he’s going to be a star. You don’t see hands like that come along very often in baseball.

Marshall: KLaw you raise an interesting point in regard to manager’s not be willing to implement more radical or “non-traditional” approaches to in game situations. We have to be getting close to a time when a GM’s are no longer forced to choose former ballplayers as their skipper’s, right?
Klaw: Doesn’t seem to be improving much. If anything we are devolving into a time where more MLB executives are hiring their friends than are conducting full searches for the most qualified candidates. It’s a negative trend for the sport overall and particularly damning for minorities working in the sport.

Dave: Some High School players are now being asked to hit the ball of a tee to measure exit velocity…is this really a good way to measure bat speed? Do you use this method.
Klaw: While exit velocity is interesting I have seen no studies that link it to anything we might care about, such as some sort of increased production. Right now it’s a fun toy.

Dana: What is Starlin Castro? A 200-hit per year All-Star or one of the worst offensive players in baseball?
Klaw: He might be both. That’s all for this week’s chat. I may be traveling next Thursday, in which case I might cancel next week and chat again on the 21st; I’ll make sure to tweet and post on Facebook if I am indeed chatting. Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions.

I reviewed the boardgame Orleans for Paste this week, and my latest Insider post explains why Trevor Hoffman is not a Hall of Famer (but Curt Schilling is).

Klaw: Once again it’s another chat bandit. Klawchat.

BK: If you were Carlos Correa, how much would it cost for you to sign a lifetime deal with the Astros? Essentially, what sum of money could buy you out of ever signing another contract?
Klaw: A lifetime deal would need a term – ten years? Fifteen? I’d be looking for something in the $40 million a year range for him, Harper, etc. Salaries are clearly headed that way anyway, and if owners have the cash, then the players should get it since they’re the product.

Dana: Do you believe that Brian Cashman is one of the best GM’s in the game? Joel Sherman noted that the Yanks have been competitive for 23 straight seasons. That’s impressive regardless of market size.
Klaw: “Competitive” is a bit of an arbitrary standard, no? I think Cashman has done some things very well, some less so, and he operates under some constraints that aren’t immediately visible to those of us on the outside.

Charlie: I’m a Nats fan and while I totally get why the Nats don’t want to go into the season with a possibly-not-ready Trea Turner and an unpredictable Espinosa, I don’t love the Murphy deal. However, if they used him to spell Werth, Rendon, and Zim once a week, I might like it more? What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy as a part-time 2B, part-time supersub? Could it work? Or, now that he’s been signed, are they better just sticking him at second?
Klaw: If they use Murphy to spell Rendon for any reason other than injury, they should send the entire coaching staff down the Potomac in a leaky rowboat. Also, the contract was way beyond what Murphy is likely to be worth even factoring in further salary inflation.

bruce: Best Sabbath album?
Klaw: Has to be Paranoid, no? Title track, Iron Man, War Pigs.

Alex in Austin: Dave Stewart won’t be in Arizona in 3 years when Swanson is ready. Isn’t this a problem of aligning incentives? How do you fix short and long term vision? Seems like the only constant is the owner, is the onus on him?
Klaw: Swanson is likely to be ready by Opening Day 2017, if not sooner. It’s not a question of misaligned incentives; it’s a question of mishiring your general manager.

KlawFan: Higher Upside: Benentendi or AJ Reed?
Klaw: Benintendi. CF with speed as well as power. Reed is 1b only, has power and great approach, no speed and bat might be a tick slow for better velocity.

Pat: Aaron Judge’s struggles at triple A: small sample or very concerning?
Klaw: He has a specific approach issue – he hasn’t learned to cover the outside corner while he’s also covering the inner third – that explained the AAA struggles and even the AA strikeouts. I think he’s still got some work to do in the minors.

Shaun: Any restaurant recommendations for Walt Disney World? Went to Raglan Road on your suggestion and loved it.
Klaw: Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge is probably the best restaurant I’ve been to anywhere on the property. Via Napoli at Italy in Epcot is very good, but like most restaurants in the parks, very expensive for what you get.

Adam: Keith, do you think the trade for Jedd Gyorko signals the Cardinals frustration with Kolten Wongs progression, or do you see Gyorko as a backup at 2B/3B as well as a power bat off the bench? I would hate to see Wong not get another full season to see what he can be. What do you see happening in St Louis?
Klaw: Gyorko is a good UT who can handle 2b or 3b and fake SS. They needed a RHB off the bench anyway and Wong has been a cipher vs lefties so far, so platooning them right now is a good idea.

Craig: David Stearns has really focused on acquiring talent at the rookie/A ball level in trades. Has Stearns found a market inefficiency (teams don’t properly value prospects who are several years away from the majors) or is this just a function of starting a rebuilding process that is likely to last several seasons?
Klaw: I think the latter. Teams value those kids properly – they’re very high risk and a long way away, so the present value of their likely production is really low. Stearns can afford to wait. He might be able to rent a car by himself when they reach the majors. (Sorry, Dave…)

Bill G.: Hi Keith. You have stated that OPS is too simplistic a metric, and it undervalues OBP (I agree). If you were to uplift OBP over SLG, what sort of uplift would you apply to make this a more realistic metric. Thanks.
Klaw: I wouldn’t. Keep them separate. Combining them only obscures valuable information.

Bradley: Any thoughts on the Padres Rule 5 Draft additions. Sounds like they may give Perdomo a shot at the rotation. Do you think Blash makes enough contact for his power to show?
Klaw: Never been a Blash fan. Perdomo should stick as a reliever. Two pitch guy, doubt he can start right now.

Delvin Perez: Hi Mr.Law, do you think I have a chance to be a top 3 pick in next year draft?, I’m a huge Braves Fan…..
Klaw: That’s a stretch right now, but possible. You’re just 17 and very toolsy.

Archie: Do you think the Murphy signing affects Trea Turner’s Opening Day status?
Klaw: I think it shouldn’t but I bet it does.

PS: What do you think Rob Refsnyder’s ceiling is? Is it Daniel Murphy?
Klaw: Less. Can’t play 2b at all and really doesn’t even have Murphy’s hit tool.

Mikey: Thoughts on the whole Al-Jazeera doping debacle?
Klaw: I don’t see why we’re doubting the story. People questioning Al-Jazeera’s credibility as a news organization have been living under a rock for the last five years. No one covered the Arab Spring as well as they did – and they are hated by many dictators in the Arab world, which is as good a sign of integrity as you can have as a news organization.

Dave: Thoughts on Albert Almora’s improved second half?
Klaw: SSS until proven otherwise. Minor leaguers should improve in the second half if they don’t move up, since their competition is getting younger due to promotions. As for Almora, I don’t see any reason to think it’s not just BABIP-related; he didn’t hit for any power in the second half.

Roy: Of all the CF’s the Red Sox have, who do you think actually ends up in the position in a couple of years. (Assuming no moves.)
Klaw: Betts is the most likely to still be on the roster. Benintendi may actually be the CF, but Betts isn’t going anywhere.

Philly: Most industry analysts seem to be on board with the Phillies rebuilding efforts. I believe they have the correct course of action, but I am somewhat apprehensive that their returns on trades will yield more quantity than quality. Other than Crawford, do you really see anyone in their system with all star upside?
Klaw: Quantity isn’t a bad thing when the system is light on both. Randolph has star upside if he can find a position and they had a few arms in short-season ball with that kind of potential.

Andrew: Finally read Moneyball by Michael Lewis after years of reading you, baseballprospectus, and fangraphs. Thought it was nice of Lewis to mention you as JP’s pet sabermetrician and mini-rain man. Anyway, I found your review of the movie but do you have anything on the book? Would love to hear your thoughts? How things have changed since it was written? Was shocked by how little defense was valued to the point where Beane would have traded Jason Varitek.
Klaw: Book is a must-read, despite some factual issues. (The story with me never happened, and Lewis never corrected it even though I told him so after the hardcover edition. The quote about Voros from Depodesta actually came from me, and the story about a player seeing Mattingly at Legends Field is also untrue.) But for a general view of the industry at the time that avoids too much math and emphasizes the impact on specific players, it’s outstanding. Lewis is a fantastic storyteller and I could read his prose all day long.

Anonymous: 10 years from now, which current SS prospect is the better player? Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Klaw: Rodgers, for me at least.

greg p: How is the trade for Giles going to look two years down the road? A total heist for Phillies?
Klaw: I think both sides end up very happy with it but we will say the Phillies did better in the end.

Alex in Austin: In the next 30 years, do you see this antiquated arbitration system and underpaying younger players getting resolved? What if a new 4 team league is created that pays players under 27 their true value and attracted guys like Correa, Bryant, Fernandez, etc.?
Klaw: Who funds that league? Not that I dislike the idea, but the barrier to entry for a rival league today is probably a dealbreaker for any of the four major sports.

Anonymous: Can the Braves realistically compete in 2017 with the new stadium opening? It seems like they are loading up on pitching prospects but will have no offense besides Freeman and Olivera
Klaw: And Olivera may not even be that good. I don’t think they can compete next year but they’ll be sneaky good, and I bet they go spend some money next winter, or even on a late signing this winter if they see some value.

Anonymous: Re: Opt Outs from last time. There’s also the PR positive from the team perspective. We signed this guy to this huge contract, look we’re trying to win! Then if he opts out in a couple of years before he gets expensive, our fans (government) will hopefully have been stupid enough to build us a stadium to fill with less expensive ball players. #Profit
Klaw: I laughed. You’re not wrong about the PR benefit. No one realizes the opt-outs are there on signing day.

Arin: What are reasonable number to expect from Hector Olivera? 4th OF, Average, Above Average, All-star?
Klaw: I think extra guy. Questions on the hit tool and athleticism, and of course him bailing on Caguas (at least, not putting in the required level of effort) doesn’t look good.

Bryan: Just curious about your thoughts on Sam Travis. Seems to be trending in the right direction.
Klaw: I’m a fan. Can absolutely hit. Just not sure what the final power output is, and whether he’s just a good regular at first or something more.

PS: I know some teams are spending more on coaching staffs in the minors these days, but their pay is still well short of MLB coaches. Couldn’t you argue they are more important than MLB coaches based on the impact they have on developing players?
Klaw: Best coaches end up promoted out of the area where they can do the most good.

tw: How do you feel about your colleague’s piece accusing the phillies of tanking? Indefensible, I assume, given the numerous contradictions of his prior writings? Also the absurd recommendations essentially demanding they give out bad contracts again…
Klaw: Accusing? Is this even a question? They’re doing what the Astros did and I don’t see the problem with it. The system more or less forces bad teams to go that route. I only disagreed with Buster on the need for them to spend some money in the short term. F that. If the CBA incentivizes (I hate that word) tanking, then tank the shit out of it, my man.

Matt: Do you think college educated people truly think evolution is false and that creationism is true? Even if you take a class like biology or anatomy, it’s clear evolution is true. I just don’t understand how law makers can deny evolution. You had mentioned cognitive dissonance on Twitter, but I think there has to be a bigger reason.
Klaw: I think, like many science and even social issues, it’s about undermining the confidence some people might have in their religious beliefs. If evolution is true, does that mean Christianity is false? I don’t happen to think that’s the case, but if your religion tells you evolution is false, and the evidence says that it’s true (it is, absolutely, 100%, no doubt about it true), then you may reject the evidence because it could force you to question your faith, or your belief in God or an afterlife. I think the fight against marriage equality came down to the same reason. Even climate change has a whiff of that – how could a just deity allow our planet to go to hell like that? (I’m reminded of the old Robin Williams quote from God: “I gave you a nice planet, and you fucked it up.”)

Urban: Starlin Castro was not s good defensive SS, at least by the scouting side. Advanced metrics seemed to be kinder than the eye test. What’s his projection as s defender at 2B?
Klaw: I bet he’s above-average to plus there.

Josh: Is kyler Murray eligible for the next draft?
Klaw: Not as long as he’s at a four-year school in the spring. Next eligibility would be in 2018.

PS: Who do you suspect the Yankees will target at 19th pick this year (obviously way too early)? Quantrill?
Klaw: Zero idea. Teams don’t do that this far in advance. You can’t “target” anyone before the season has even started.

Stephen: No question. Just a thanks. Every question I ask you on Twitter you seem to answer despite what has to be endless mentions. Just appreciate it.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you for bearing with me as I tweet a lot and some of it probably isn’t very good.

Jeff: Do you think Tyler Jay will become a successful starter?
Klaw: I’d give him every chance to do so.

Josh: Who would be your guess to be the number 1 overall pick right now?
Klaw: Dunno. Hansen, Groome, maybe Benson? I have no conviction on this topic at the moment.

Ryan: What’s your favorite way to prepare/cook a Pork Tenderloin?
Klaw: Ruhlman’s sear-roasting with lots of butter. Pork tenderloin has very little taste and is awful if cooked past medium-rare. It needs a rich sauce and a good crust on the outside.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Reason we’re doubting could possibly be Charlie Sly has recanted his testimony? Maybe that hits at the credibility a bit…
Klaw: Maybe a lawyer or two got to him. Testimony was awfully specific the first time around.

Dennis: Can Tomlinson be a super utility guy for the Giants, or is the bat just not good enough?
Klaw: I’d say probably not, but I’m much more confident that he’s not a regular than I am that he’s not a 400 AB UT.

Ryan: Why can’t I make mayo taste as good as bottled? tips?
Klaw: Use really good eggs and some fresh lemon juice. Try olive oil for the fat, or add another flavor like white miso or chipotle peppers.

Michael: What do pro scouts do during the winter?
Klaw: Sit home, stare out the window, and wait for spring?

Macon: Your thoughts on the ending of “A Farewell to Arms”??
Klaw: No joke, I threw the book against the wall in high school when I got to the end. Silver Linings Playbook hadn’t even been written yet.

Mike: Al Jazeera is great…the only people questioning the report on that basis are morons. I think the issue is more that the documentary isn’t all that great, and the allegations are based entirely on hearsay.
Klaw: Fair. Although people had no problems believing hearsay allegations against Clemens.

JP: did you see the new Star Wars? thoughts?
Klaw: Nope, probably won’t see it for a while.

Aaron: You were quite bullish on Amed Rosario’s tools last winter. What, if anything, has change 10 months later?
Klaw: Nothing. Tools are the same.

Elton: With Parks and Rec gone, what’s the next best successor in that line of comedy? Have you watched Master of None?
Klaw: That would be my pick. Watched the whole season. Last 5-6 episodes they really hit their stride, and some of the stuff on long-term relationships was expertly written. I was incredibly impressed.

Pat: How many SS prospects do you have ahead of Mateo?
Klaw: Quite a few. He’s a good prospect but getting a bit overhyped because of his parent org.

Anonymous: How likely is Moncada to stick at 2b?
Klaw: I see no reason he won’t.

Tyler: If you had to be a writer for any other sport, which would you choose?
Klaw: Is food a sport?

Dan: Hey Keith, my wife is having a brain tumor removed next month and I’m distracting myself by figuring out what to read during the hospital stay. I can’t decide if I should go with something lighthearted/easy to read, something harder (since I’ll have the time), something more bleak (since I’ll be in that mood anyways), or something more educational (ie The Sixth Extinction). What do you recommend?
Klaw: Good grief, that’s not good news and I hope everything goes well for her. In situations like that, I stick to lighter fare that I can truly get lost in – authors I love, or the type of immersive book where I’ll zone out a bit and feel completely “in” the pages. I don’t read bleak stuff when I’m down or when I’m away from home for a long time.

JP: will you see The Hateful Eight, or not a Tarantino fan?
Klaw: I loved Django but TH8 reviews are not calling to me. I don’t see many movies anyway.

Andy: How awesome would it be for Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell (or I guess Griffey) to be elected to the Hall of Fame and in their acceptance speech, admit to steroid use. Like, HA, you just inducted a steroid user. Now let’s ditch the stigma.
Klaw: It would be hilarious, although I doubt either would risk the immediate backlash that would follow.

Ryan: I grew up Roman Catholic, but am now Athiest. I’m conflicted on the direction I’d like to bring up my children. I’m thinking it might be good to bring them up Roman Catholic until they are old enough to decide the route that best fits their belief. Any thoughts or Advice? Thanks!
Klaw: Entirely up to you and your spouse/partner. The most important thing is for the two of you to agree on the choice.

Andy: How far along are you on the top 100? Like do you have all the info you just need to combine all of the things?
Klaw: I have done maybe 5% of the work. I start after New Year’s.

Pat: When Lazarito gets signed, where do you think he’ll pop up on your rankings?
Klaw: At 16, he’s a stretch to even hit the top 100. In all the top 100s I’ve done I’ve only had three players that young on the list, I think. One was Sano, one was Ynoa (who blew out and really hasn’t panned out anyway), and one was Villalona (whom I rated way too high and then he killed a guy).

Ridley Kemp: At the risk of getting into dangerous territory…What’s your favorite sci-fi book of the year, and do you plan on voting on the Hugo Awards this year? Last year was a bit of a mess as you may have heard.
Klaw: I didn’t know the public could vote, and I don’t think I’ve read any 2015 titles. I did hear about the voting last year and all the misogyny involved. Ugly.

FItz: Any thoughts on the Matt Bush signing? Does he deserve another opportunity (he did pay the price of his actions imo) and does he have a chance to be anything for Texas?
Klaw: I have no problem with it, as long as he stays sober and of course doesn’t drive (he has no license and won’t for many years).

keithlaw disciple: If you were a betting man, which player from the 2014 Draft, who struggled in 2015, could turn it around in 2016 (thinking guys like Gatewood, Harrison, Gettys, other)? Thanks!
Klaw: Derek Hill. Didn’t even get the full season to start to turn things around.

Andrew: You get to replace one major league owner, no questions asked. Who is it? Loria? Wilpon? Other?
Klaw: Loria/Samson. As much as I despise seeing Jeffy Wilson – you know, the one who allegedly harassed a pregnant employee because she was unmarried? – in a FO, Loria’s bleeding of the team is a problem for the entire sport, whereas the Wilpons’ antics are more of a problem for that one team. Sorry, Mets fans.

Nils: Hi Keith, did you get a chance to see Anthony Alford this year? Has he become a top 100 guy?
Klaw: He was on my midseason top 50.

Chris: Is jp Crawford more of a defensive or offensive SS? What is Appel’s ceiling? 1, 2, 3?
Klaw: Appel is a potential 2, but has specific and not insignificant adjustments to make. Crawford is more of an everything SS.

Scott in TX: Hear a lot on TV about LH power hitters teeing off on the low-and-inside pitch. Why just lefties?
Klaw: I do think there’s something to LH power hitters liking the ball down, but I don’t know why. It would stand to reason that this is actually selection bias in how such players are scouted and promoted, rather than some genetic fluke that makes lefties like the low pitch.

Tyler: Sorry if you have answered this before, but how exactly did you get into the baseball writing business after college?
Klaw: I didn’t become a full-time writer until 12 years after college, and didn’t work in baseball at all until 8 years after college.

Joe: Could Mike Shawaryn of Maryland be a first rounder this year?
Klaw: Area guys tell me more like 2nd round but I’ll go see him in the spring.

Jeff: From what I’ve read on the Frazier trade most seem to think Peraza wasn’t enough return. But if you look at top 100 lists, he would rank as their new #1 prospect in a fairly deep system. Do you think the negative reports might be overstated??
Klaw: He was not enough return. Not sure he’s really their #1 prospect either.

Ryan: Have you seen any of Making a Murderer? Thoughts?
Klaw: No. Next series for me will be finishing Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell then Man in the High Castle.

Toad: What’s one book everyone should read? Also which QO rejecting player is gonna end signing a one year deal?
Klaw: Non-fiction, something like Thinking Fast and Slow, or perhaps the more accessible The Invisible Gorilla, because they teach us about how we think and how we need to think differently to make better decisions. Fiction is a tougher call; my all-time favorite novel is The Master and Margarita, but if you’re thinking about some kind of imperative (“you should read this because it’ll teach you something”), readers would probably get more out of Beloved or To Kill a Mockingbird.

Michael: What do you think about Max Pentecost now? He’s basically been hurt his entire pro career.
Klaw: I think what you think. Got to play to develop, and he had a couple of real questions even before that.

Jeff: Your opinion on Smoltz joining Buck in the booth?
Klaw: I think it’s a positive. He will be an exponential improvement over Reynolds, who does not know the players well enough for that job. Color commentary isn’t easy and Reynolds did the job as if he hadn’t done any prep work. (Perhaps he did, but I can only comment on the results.)

Mike: Thoughts on Trey Ball of the Red Sox? I never see him mentioned amongst their top 10 prospects. What is his ceiling or did the Sox strike out on him?
Klaw: Too early to give up on him. Athletic LHP with some stuff, was much more raw when drafted than I think the Sox realized. Not a bust.

JP: how many of the 2016 draftees do you think will crack your midseason top 50? just 1 or 2?
Klaw: History says more. Depends a lot on promotions too.

JP: did Severino show you anything in 2015 that would make you believe he can stick in the rotation?
Klaw: He stayed healthy all year, so that’s a good thing. But the delivery issue is unchanged. I can’t name any long-term starter who used his lower half that little.

Rob: A few weeks ago in the chat you said that Paul Goldschmidt has caused you to re-consider how you evaluate a player like Rhys Hoskins. Can you say more about that? I’m less interested in Hoskins per se than the type he represents or the changes in your process. Thanks.
Klaw: I think the bar I set for that kind of player was too high. Granted, Goldschmidt has a grade 80 work ethic and no one knew it except perhaps the Dbacks’ area guy who took him, but still, I should have been more open to a player with the skills he did show and a swing that was mechanically sound and produced enough power even before he reached his peak. Also, I’m just trying to be less dogmatic in opinions and clearer about probabilities, so that it doesn’t become “oh, you said he’d be X, you’re wrong!” when really I’m trying to say I think there’s a 60% chance he’s this and a 40% chance he’s that.

Nils: Does Eduardo Rodriguez have the stuff to become a decent #2 behind Price in Boston’s rotation?
Klaw: I think he has ace upside but wouldn’t pin that on him for 2016.

Michael: Does Chris Davis have a market anymore? Pretty much has to go to an AL team. He may have given up a lot of money.
Klaw: I don’t see who pays him. As you said, what’s his market now? What teams still have 1b open and that kind of money available? Maybe Texas, but didn’t they see that movie before?

Matt: Corbin’s nasty slider showed the type of bite it once had towards the end of the season, with that in mind safe to say he wins at least 15 next year behind Greinke/Miller?
Klaw: Pitcher-wins are a horrible stat and I would never predict anything about them. Also, Corbin has what, half a year back from TJ? You think he’s ready to throw 200 innings or make 33 starts?

Scotty G: Any chance Davis goes to the Cards on a shorter deal – he would seem to fit PERFECTLY with them with Piscotty/Moss playing RF?
Klaw: Only if it’s February 1st and he hasn’t signed somewhere else.

Chris: I can’t help but feel like the top phillies prospects with the exception of Crawford, are overrated. Am i wrong?
Klaw: Without giving me some basis for the complaint, I find it hard to respond. Is someone saying Jake Thompson is the next Bob Gibson? Then yes, that would be overrating him.

JC: Are the Dbax being wise to consider Hudson for the rotation? I don’t think he should be anywhere but the pen.
Klaw: Reliever all the way. Double TJ, arm action is long, has had some success in relief, and they could use him in the 7th/8th innings. Good outcome for him and team.

Craig: There has been talk of Milwaukee trading Lucroy. Even if Lucroy won’t be part of the next contending Brewers team, is there sufficient value in keeping him around to work with/develop the young pitching staff that would outweigh any return in a trade?
Klaw: You could weigh that value against the return. If no one is blowing you away, you keep him. I think you only deal him if you’re getting back some major-league pieces in return. It’s hard to realize sufficient value otherwise.

Dan: Re: Brain Tumor – Thanks (for the well wishes and recommendation), was leaning in that direction. The good news is that the tumor is benign and we’ve had a lot of time to prep for it, as well as two very good families offering any support we need. Could definitely be a lot worse.
Klaw: That’s good to hear. I know recovery can be long, though; a classmate of mine at Tepper had similar surgery not long after we graduated, and if I remember correctly she had to have a second operation to deal with a recurrence. (She’s fine now, with two kids.) So I wish you all the best. As for reading, don’t be a weirdo like me, reading Lolita at the hospital while my wife was in labor.

Chris: Thoughts on Mets “let’s lengthen lineup and pray SP stays healthy” offseason? They’re putting a ton of pressure on Conforto to be the guy.
Klaw: Sandy etc may just have no money to spend to get a legit bat, and even so, I’m not sure where they’d put such a player – if they were to sign Upton or Cespedes, neither is really a CF, and the corners are taken. Zobrist sort of fit, but four years for him is too much, especially with Herrera right freaking there. They’re in a bit of a weird spot in terms of the roster – they don’t have a black hole to fill so spending big on a veteran requires a better return.

Bevan: How would you rate Stephen King? Is he an all star, average regular, bench bat or AAAA player?
Klaw: Never read any of his stuff.

Charlie: Re: The Murphy/Rendon thing – do you think injury-prone guys benefit from a day of rest a week? That was my assumption with the question – they have 3 guys with bad injury histories who play positions I’d rather see Murphy playing that 2B. If you think it doesn’t help, that’s fair, just wondering
Klaw: Platooning him with Werth makes some sense, and giving Zimmerman some time off might too. Rendon’s injuries seem to be acute rather than chronic, so days off for him seem to have less benefit.

DO: Bill James’ projection for Swihart this year : 287 Avg., .335 OBP, .758 OPS . This, to me, looks both pessimistic AND hugely valuable for a catcher. What part of his offensive game to you see developing first (power or patience)?
Klaw: Patience well before power and hell yeah I’d take that output. What does ZiPS say?

Chris: Does Hansel Robles have closer stuff? After seeing what Philadelphia got for Giles, I would listen on Familia if I were Mets given their, um, financial situation.
Klaw: Not sure he really has closer command, but he has closer stuff.

Bevan: Have you ever read anything by Carlos Ruiz Zafon? I’m currently reading The Shadow of the Wind and it’s incredible…
Klaw: I really didn’t like that book. The resolution was very pulpy and over the top for me.

Gabe: Long term: Confoto or Schwarber? Thanks!
Klaw: You really can’t go wrong with either. Last winter I said Conforto. Right now I’d say Schwarber. I reserve the right to change my mind another half-dozen times before we’re debating their Hall of Fame merits.

Andy: Do any of the draft pick compensation players make it to June? It certainly didn’t go well for the couple of players that did that a few years ago.
Klaw: Don’t think so although Davis’ market would concern me right now.

Nils: Hi Keith, no question just a thanks for continuing your chats here and wish you and your family a happy 2016.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you all for reading and chatting with me even as I brought the chats here this year. My next chat will be some time in January. Until then, I hope you all have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration and look forward to doing this again many times in 2016.

Michael: Would you recommend a player sign with Boras as his agent? He obviously gets a lot of money for some of his clients, but he seems to really screw others. I imagine his day-to-day stuff is top notch, but it must be kind of risky to sign with him.
Klaw: I think the net result is a big positive. Yes, a few players fare poorly with him but the majority do very well, from draft day to free agency.

DO: ZiPS is more pessimistic on Swihart: .252/.297/.371 It’s definitely not out of the question for him, but that would assume little to no development in 2016.
Klaw: I’d take the over on the implied walk rate.

Alex: Did you have a chance to see Tim Anderson in person last year? If so, any thoughts on his development?
Klaw: Yes. Approach needs to improve. Tools are all there. He’s just in such a hurry to get out of the batter’s box.

Chris: The philly local media makes them out to be the next World Series core. I wonder if they’re even starters in the MLB.
Klaw: Lot of everyday talent/mid- to back-of-the-rotation types in the system. Crawford is the only guy I’d tab as very likely to be above-average.

Sam: Greg Bird upside? Was his call up performance legit (despite the small sample)? Were there any parts of his game you noticed improved? Thanks!
Klaw: SSS and I’d bet the under going forward but I do think he’s an everyday DH for somebody.

Craig: Do you ever read “pulpy” fiction books (i.e. Harlan Coben, Lee Child, James Patterson, etc.). Any that you particularly enjoy?
Klaw: When I go for that I go more for classics – Christie, Wodehouse, Stout, Le Carre (a bit better than pulp, but same general idea). I’ve liked the few Richard Stark “Parker” novels I’ve read too.

Mike: I smoked a brisket for Christmas. Do you ever use a smoker (I use the traditional offset with the firebox) and do you enjoy BBQ? Took about 14 hours.
Klaw: I smoke meats on my Weber kettle using fire bricks but have never done a brisket. Longest smoke was a pork shoulder, around 8 hours I think. Love to use it for my own bacon. Can’t beat it.

Matt: Keith What type of player do you see in Jamie Westbrook long term? I keep hearing his name a lot in Dbacks system
Klaw: I’d be surprised if he’s any kind of big leaguer. Not a shortstop, doesn’t walk, and got a big boost from the Cal League this year.

Al: Aaron Nola did well for the Phillies, but is he more of a mid rotation starter as opposed to the ace that Phillie fans want him to be?
Klaw: Maybe a 2. Not a 1 – meaning I don’t think he ends up top 15 or so in baseball.

Chris: Do you ever see yourself back with a mlb club?
Klaw: I never rule anything out but I don’t expect so.

Eric: Long term outlook for Joe Ross?
Klaw: I’m all in. Number 2 upside.

Mike: Do you think Erik Johnson will be an above average 4th starter for the white sox? Other than 1 injured year the minor league numbers are great.
Klaw: Agreed. 2014 was unfortunate but understandable with the shoulder injury.

Chris: thoughts on royals signing of Dillon gee?
Klaw: Minor league deal, right? Great pickup.

Matt: Do you see Tanner Roark re-establishing himself as a starter now that he will be back in nats rotation?
Klaw: Yes, I do. They have good starter depth right now.

Chris: Re: Gee-yes, minor lg deal w incentives. After Colon mets really lack rotation depth.
Klaw: They traded much of it away in July.

Rich: Did you take your daughter to see the Good Dinosaur? Where does it fall on the Pixar scale? Seems like a relative dud for them (comparatively at least)
Klaw: Technically Disney, not Pixar, right? Separate studios under the same head. Pixar’s movie this year was Inside Out and if that doesn’t get a Best Picture nod just fire the entire Oscar voting into the sun. Also, I haven’t seen the Good Dinosaur.

Frank: What do you make of Alex Jackson? If I recall correctly (which I often don’t), I believe you were pretty high on him before the 2014 draft. He’s been atrocious. Do you think he can figure things out and be an OF in the majors?
Klaw: He’s been atrocious but I am not giving up on him. He’s been working with a hitting guy I know pretty well this winter, which doesn’t hurt, and even if that weren’t the case I still wouldn’t give up on a 19-year-old with a good swing and real power.

Len Denver: Jonathan Gray upside? Can he still be a #2?
Klaw: Take the under. I don’t like what’s happened to his delivery since he signed.

Zach: Why hasn’t Fister been signed? Big problem or something along lines of wanting too much?
Klaw: Lots of good FA still out there. Kazmir hasn’t signed either. It’s just happening more slowly this winter.

Alex: Devon Travis, if healthy, a good bet for the long-term? Seems to have underrated skills…another undersized guy not getting respect (e.g. Betts, Pedroia, etc.)
Klaw: Not a fan. When did Betts not get respect? That seems revisionist to me.

Jake: Do you think Pierce Johnson can become a 4/5?
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. Guy has never stayed healthy for a full season as a starter, his delivery is very hard on the elbow, and I don’t know if he has the out pitch to start anyway, although I am much more concerned about the first two points than the third.

Bill: What’s your thoughts on the increase of fact checking articles that come about after debates? They largely just some like clickbate to me.
Klaw: Pointing out where the candidates lied? I’m all for it.

John in MN: The Good Dinosaur is Pixar, was slated for 2014, underwent massive rewrites which delayed it to this year.
Klaw: Ah, my mistake. That explains why it might not have lived up to the Pixar standard then.

Nils: Hi Keith, no question just a thanks for continuing your chats here and wish you and your family a happy 2016.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you all for reading and chatting with me even as I brought the chats here this year. My next chat will be some time in January. Until then, I hope you all have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration and look forward to doing this again many times in 2016.

Klaw: Wake up from your reverie – it’s Klawchat.

Jeff: Not sure if you wrote about it, but reaction to the final package from Houston for Giles?
Klaw: I revised the post and think the balance didn’t shift, as Philly gave up a good 17-yo prospect in Arauz to get a better guy back in Appel (over Fisher).

Frank: Going to see Star Wars with your daughter, or is it not your thing?
Klaw: She told me unprompted she is not interested. And it’s hard for me to get hyped up when The Phantom Menace was a dud. Last time I enjoyed a Star Wars movie I still had action figures and a C3PO carrying case.

Brian: The Inciarte-Soler swap seems to be talked about a lot this week. What’s your take on that? Fair trade?
Klaw: I wouldn’t do that if I were the Cubs. Giving up on Soler that early makes no sense to me.

Nick: I’ve noticed that you don’t include many rap songs/albums on your music lists. Is that because you’re just not a huge fan of the modern genre or have you just not heard anything you like from rappers recently?
Klaw: Both. Don’t think most modern rappers hold a candle to the Golden Age greats. It’s become an overproduced genre without the technical skills of the Rakims and the 2Pacs.

Nick: Can Mark Appel still be a #2 starter? Maybe even an ace if everything clicks?
Klaw: I think #2 is a lot more realistic, but he needs a few significant adjustments and, for all Houston has done right the last few years, they absolutely mishandled him in several ways.

rangers: What do you make of DeShields? Love him as a Rangers fan, but he looked very suspect in CF last year.
Klaw: I think he’s a LF in the long run. Better player than he appeared to be this time last winter, not as good as he appeared to be the year before.

Nick: Why are we seeing so many closers getting dealt for sizable packages? Phillies got a ton for Giles. Is that just because Dombrowski set the market with the Kimbrel trade or are these “relief aces” just that valuable?
Klaw: Giles offers five years of control, the next two at basically no cost. Even if Houston realistically figures they’ll get 2-3 years before he blows out or sucks, just because that’s how closers go, they’ll be paying maybe $5-6 million total for those years and still retain the option to keep longer. That’s really valuable.

Oren: The Jays seem to be weighing, again, the Sanchez to the rotation or bullpen question. Of course, at this point, they’d need to add a couple of relievers to afford themselves the luxury of moving Sanchez back. How would you handle it?
Klaw: If they don’t fix his delivery by lengthening his stride this is a waste of their time. He won’t have the command to start and will remain an injury risk. Short striders get hurt. Taijuan Walker hasn’t been the same since he shortened his stride, and Tyler Skaggs blew out even after the Angels lengthened him out again.

Hermione: In your appearance on Buster Olney’s podcast yesterday, you seemed to agree that Cooperstown should use objective voting criteria and just present facts (e.g., banned for betting on baseball) on the plaque. What, then, to do with players already there with hagiographic plaques that elide their misdeeds? And, of course, who decides and how?
Klaw: I have no problem revising plaques of players already in, but would be uncomfortable with any process to remove players for non-baseball reasons.

Steven: How concerned are you about Luis Ortiz’s conditioning woes? He seems like the kind of guy who will constantly battle conditioning issues like Sandoval
Klaw: I think the problem in 2015 was that he didn’t do the conditioning thing at all. Looks like he just ate.

CB: More likely to make the Hall of Fame in your lifetime: Pete Rose or Alex Rodriguez?
Klaw: A-Rod. Rose’s candidacy is probably dead unless Jeff Idelson’s successor changes the ruling.

Steve: Fangraphs has the Indians projected to total the most WAR in the AL Central. Do you agree that they are the favorites? The Royals are losing some guys, but still seem to be better, and the White Sox should be drastically improved.
Klaw: I don’t like any projections like that midway through the offseason. It’s silly – like telling everyone they have two hours for a test, then grading them after 45 minutes.

Chris: Is there much of a defensive upgrade between Flores and Cabrera at SS? To me it seems negligible.
Klaw: Negligible. Seems like the Mets missed the memo about Asdrubal being awful at short.

Matt: Thoughts on the Orioles signing of Hyun Soo Kim?
Klaw: I like the bat and approach, doubt he’s a 30-HR guy here as he was in the KBO in 2015. Might be a nice bargain signing, guy with OBP skills and enough power to make them work.

Sean: Hi Keith. Big fan. Legitimately, how mad were you at Curt Schilling on Baseball Tonight when you said you’d be out on Chris Davis and he was kind of dismissive. Karl said you threw down your mike.
Klaw: I wasn’t mad at all (and I didn’t throw down the mic – Karl was joking). I think Curt was wrong. It happens.

John: Curious whether you have any thoughts on Martin Amis’s writings. I loved early stuff, but lately it often seems tedious to me.
Klaw: Only read Money, which was good, but I couldn’t help comparing it to his dad’s Lucky Jim, which is fucking hilarious.

Warren: 35 years old, bad medicals (reportedly), and costs a first round draft pick.. the Dodgers have to punt on Iwakuma, right?
Klaw: I assume so. They can’t exactly be surprised – guy seemed to be made of glass with Seattle.

Steve: Would a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League mean more in evaluation even though it is a shorter season because of the level of competition? Mac Williamson seems to have performed better there than at Triple-A, is it significant?
Klaw: No. Don’t read anything into stats there, especially for hitters as it’s a very high-offense environment (altitude, tired pitchers).

Matt: What are your thoughts on Cornelius Randolph? How high is his ceiling?
Klaw: Can really hit. No clue where he plays. LF I guess.

Ryan: What are the best 5 non-fiction books you’ve read this year?
Klaw: Undeniable, Paleofantasy, The Sixth Extinction, Charlatan (Pope Brock), and The Best Team Money Can Buy.

chris: Phillies have added James Russel, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica recently. Klentak’s short term plan jive with what you’d have done? Seem like good moves to me
Klaw: I like that approach to building a bullpen. Don’t pay for proven relievers when their failure rate is something like 50%.

AJ: Hey Keith thanks for doing these chats as usual. The Giants seem to be taking a gamble on both Samardzija and Cueto. Which is the better bet to be a good deal for the Giants? What would you say were the issues with Shark last year? The stuff seemed to be there
Klaw: Cueto gives you that shot at ace upside that Shark might not offer.

Ray: Can WIllie Calhoun be a future big leaguer, or will his D hold him back. The kid can hit.
Klaw: He will hit his way to the majors. Kind of like Randolph – it’ll play, somewhere.

Billy: You’re a lyrics guy. You love Alt J. Are you claiming/insinuating that you can understand the lyrics to Alt J?
Klaw: I’m surprised anyone can’t. Although the reviewer who trashed An Awesome Wave for Pitchfork totally whiffed on the various literary/film allusions (Leon, Last Exit to Brooklyn, etc.).

Scott: Statcast, any initial thoughts of the information it provided this year?
Klaw: Data is fine, but it’s not a substitute for analysis. I had readers try to argue with me on players (Cuddyer was one) by citing exit velocity. That information is cool, but without context – without analysis telling us what, say, 1 extra mph off the bat actually means in predictive terms – it’s kind of useless.

Bradley: Is Kenta Maeda more than a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Klaw: I think that’s what he is. Don’t think he’s a good bet for 180 innings.

MIke: Can AJ Reed be a difference maker for the Astros this year?
Klaw: I think so and hope they give him a chance.

Adam Trask: It seems the Astros determined Appel would never have enough deception or movement on his fastball. Agree?
Klaw: Agree that that’s what they thought, disagree that it’s true. They insisted he throw his four-seamer rather than his two-seamer. Well, what did they expect?

Craig: Is Garin Cecchini a guy who can produce at the big league level with the change of scenery (and no one blocking him at 3B) or is he just a Triple A player?
Klaw: I think he ends up a useful big leaguer, maybe even a regular, but I have no clue what happened to him in 2015.

Jack: Do you still think Franklin Barreto can stay at short?
Klaw: Yes, why wouldn’t I? Did something change?

Steve: Family of four (12-year-old twins) who love Catan, what would make a good addition?
Klaw: 7 Wonders.

Adam: Which guy in the Braves system is most likely to be a legitimate #1? Allard? Touki?
Klaw: Touki has the huge upside. If that all clicks he’s a monster.

Ed: Hi Keith, Soler closed his stance a bit after his return from the DL late in the season. It really seemed to help him on the slow stuff away – where had had previously struggled all season. While SSS applies, could it be that he’s figured something out that will help him going forward?
Klaw: Slow away is indeed the weakness, especially the slider moving down and away, but I thought it was more poor recognition than mechanics.

TedT: In your articles on ESPN, you seem to use WAR to determine if a player is worth his salary. How do you use WAR to do that calculation. For example, a 5 WAR guy is a 5 WAR worth $15 million/year salary while a 2 WAR guy is worth $8 million/year.
Klaw: I don’t do that. Dollar value is nonlinear and is team-specific.

AH: Hosting my first xmas eve next week. Little nervous abuot the big crowd and was looking for more ideas of things to serve while sticking to a semi traditional seven fish italian dinner. any ideas?
Klaw: Think dishes that scale. Halve 2 pounds of Brussels sprouts, toss with oil and salt, roast at 450 till browned. I like to finish them in some kind of sweet/sour sauce like a mix of honey, vinegar, soy sauce, and sesame oil.

John: I’m sort of playing devil’s advocate here — I vote Republican, but based on fiscal issues not the issues below. That being said… you comment occasionally on voting for a person or party that is “pro-science.” I get that nomenclature is intended to apply primarily to climate, maybe secondarily to a few other things like stem cells. But isn’t the science increasingly against the Dems’ position on abortion? In the time since Roe was decided, the science has moved dramatically toward supporting the idea that a fetus is a life form. You can argue that there should be an exception to allow for killing it (as there is for a soldier or an executioner), but isn’t the pro-choice argument that it’s just tissue intellectually dishonest?
Klaw: Not at all – Nye addresses this in Undeniable.

Totes: Have you heard the new Baroness? Not sure it fits your line of metal, but it’s quite fantastic.
Klaw: It feels like I should love it, but I haven’t found any of their songs that really clicked with me.

Jason: I have a friend whose son was throwing 80 last year and then grew 5 inches to 6’5″ and is built like a truck. Now he’s at 91 and received scholarship offers from some SEC schools and has been invited to scouting combines by three MLB clubs so far. Is it unusual for someone to come out of the blue like this or do you see a lot of late physical bloomers?
Klaw: Happens all the time. That’s part of why scouting 14-year-olds in the Dominican is ridiculous.

Evan: Will Jomar Reyes’ size preclude him from sticking at third? Will the bat play at first or in the outfield?
Klaw: Don’t think he stays at third. Bat could play anywhere if he reaches a realistic ceiling.

Warren: Dave Cameron proposed Seager, Montas, Barnes and Guerrero for Archer and McGee. Fair?
Klaw: Awful for the Rays.

JP: Keith, big Reds fan who wholly supports blowing it all up and did so 1.5 years ago. I thought it was the right time to trade Frazier, as I think he has probably peaked – but what a poor return. The Reds must REALLY love Peraza, is all I can come up with. Have you heard from anyone who liked the deal for Cincy?
Klaw: No, I haven’t. If they put Peraza back at shortstop I could see more value for them in the end, but still, that’s all you get back? Schebler’s an extra guy and Dixon is an org player.

David: You’re forgetting to end each response with #AndYouKnowIt
Klaw: Good point, thanks for the reminder.

MikeM: Has Gary Sanchez done enough this year to make himself a top prospect again? Do you see him replacing McCann down the line?
Klaw: Depends on what “top prospect” means. He’s better than he was a year ago, and not as good as some of the local hype seems to indicate. He has the physical capacity to be an everyday catcher, but the amount of work required to do so has, so far, exceeded his effort level. I was reminded in the AFL that he can REALLY throw, though.

Dan: Keith, let’s say tomorrow ESPN unfortunately goes out of business. What do you think you’d? What would you like to do in the short-term and long-term?
Klaw: I’ll write. Doesn’t particularly matter to me where I write, as long as I’m working with the right people. Not interested in working for anyone who favors clickbait over integrity.

Tom: Small market owner Arte Moreno has apparently said he’s out of the LF market. Is there much reason to think LAA can be anything more than a 83 win team?
Klaw: Sure, if they make a few additions. I understand your concern but nobody’s offseason is over yet.

Lyle: How much do you think the beaning affected DJ Peterson’s 2015 season? Any realistic chance of him returning to previous form?
Klaw: I think it screwed him up, and I also think he wasn’t quite as good as the high draft position implied.

mike: Board game rec for a soon to turn 7 year old? is there anything good a 4 year old can handle other than candyland?
Klaw: We played Carcassonne with my daughter when she was about 4.5 – she couldn’t win if we played normally, but we just focused her on playing the game and less about scoring. As she got older, she learned the game better (and still plays the app) and we could play it more seriously. I don’t believe in letting kids win games just so they don’t feel bad, but I’m fine with playing “soft” so that you don’t just destroy them. That doesn’t seem to accomplish much.

Marcus: I know you went to Harvard for your UG, but I’m thinking of applying to there (or Booth/Wharton). However I’ve got a job, car payment, wife, dogs, etc… It would be tough for me to uproot my life for 2-3 years in the pursuit of a prestigious MBA. Any advice? Did you work while you were at Tepper?
Klaw: Don’t do it. I don’t think full-time MBAs offer sufficient ROIs. Of course I ended up in a non-MBA industry but even so, unless you’re sure you’ll get the income boost after school, I don’t think it’s worth it.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Thoughts on Nat’s new bullpen? Assuming, of course, Papelbon is shot into the sun?
Klaw: Well they’ll be better off without Matt Williams warming guys up every day…

Ryan: I don’t mean to be the type of guy to find a silver lining in a domestic violence issue, but I gotta be that type of guy. If Aroldis were to get a 50 game suspension, reports say his free agency would be delayed by a year. Would that be a good thing for the Reds?
Klaw: That’s been raised within the industry too. You’re right: It is a silver lining on a situation that should not have a silver lining. And I would guess Aroldis files a grievance to get back the service time. But yeah, the Reds could end up gaining a year from him, which boosts his trade value, and the Josh Lueke situation proved that if you’re talented and not in jail, nothing short of a Commissioner-imposed blackballing will keep you out of work.

Dave: You realize that Bill Nye is an actor with a Bachelors Degree in Engineering and not a medical expert right?
Klaw: I realize what an ad hominem argument looks like. Dispute his content, not his resume.

Keith: Is it silly to think about d’Arnaud at a corner infield spot on occasion? Wright is not the same player, Duda can’t hit lefties, and the bat should play just about anywhere, AND reduces (theoretically) chance of injury. What do you look for in putting a catcher out in the field?
Klaw: I agree – and in October d’Arnaud looked overmatched catching all that velocity. He moves around well enough to play 1b or an outfield corner, I think. And maybe doing so keeps him healthy for 140 games.

Addoeh: What is the most stressful time of the year for you? Draft time? Spring training? Now (start prospect lists and FA articles)?
Klaw: Draft time is the worst because work includes late-night phone calls and my sleep is disrupted. Top 100 prospect time is very busy but I can still keep myself on some kind of regular schedule. Losing sleep runs me down very quickly.

John: Where do you get ideas for new music?
Klaw: Everywhere. I just listen to everything new that I can. Lot of good recs from readers over the years too.

Carlo: Can Jhoulys Chacín be a valuable piece for Atlanta this season, or is his arm too far gone?
Klaw: Worth a shot.

Manny: Are you still high on Rafael Devers? Many say he is Panda in the making and that doesn’t sound like a compliment.
Klaw: Anyone who says that is an idiot.

Kevin: Favorite Christmas movie to watch year after year? It’s got to be “A Wonderful Life” for me
Klaw: A Muppet Christmas Carol.

Keith: Rafael Montero is apparently pitching in a winter league game tonight. Any insight on what the hell happened to him? Has his missed his opportunity to be a SP at this point?
Klaw: Got hurt. Shoulder. Write off 2015 entirely and hope he’s healthy again next spring.

Scott: I feel like this deal with Cueto ends up being a 2-year deal when it’s all said and done. He’ll pitch well enough to opt out and go after one large contract, the Giants will let him walk, and they’ll use that money to pay MadBum, Panik, Duffy. If Cueto pitches average, the deal works out for SF, in my opinion. Thoughts?
Klaw: If that happens, the Giants might end up jumping for joy. Two good years and he opts out before the bomb explodes? Take it.

JG: Could the Twins acquire Jake McGee without giving up a Kohl Stewart type prospect?
Klaw: I think I could put together a very good package of their prospects without including Stewart or denting their 2016 major-league roster. But it might include Kepler and I’d trade Stewart before I deal Johannes.

Keith: Very much appreciate the cookbook reviews and your food blog posts. What sort of Christmas meals happen around the Law household? Do you partake in seafood feasts of seven?
Klaw: Wife is allergic to shellfish so that’s out. I might roast a pork shoulder or a whole bird. I try to put several vegetable dishes on the table so we don’t end up stuffing ourselves with meat and carbs before the mandatory pie.

Viktor: The buzz is dwindling on Reynaldo Lopez; has the shine (and semi-Giolito comparisons) worn off?
Klaw: Those comparisons never held any water. I think he’s a power 8th-9th inning guy, might sit 98-100 with a wipeout CB.

CJ: Who’s a prospect that you were so sure was going to be a star, but completely flamed out
Klaw: We don’t have that kind of time here.

Jack: You have been a harsh critic (and rightfully so) of guys like Luebke and Chapman. What would they need to do to earn a “second chance” in your eyes?
Klaw: I’d feel very differently if either guy actually served a prison sentence appropriate to the crime. Lueke is only a free man because his victim was so fucked up from the assault that she couldn’t testify and the DA allowed him to plead no contest to a much lesser charge. How on earth does anyone with a conscience sign that guy and claim that justice was done?

Oren: Are all of the opt-outs we’re seeing in top tier free agents just a trend? Or will they become the norm and even make their way into the mid-tier?
Klaw: Definitely a trend now, but I doubt they go away, and teams don’t seem to mind them.

Frank: Now that it is settled that there is global warming caused by humans, can we devote all of the research studying global warming to coming up with technologies to create cleaner energy that doesn’t cause as much global warming?
Klaw: I get the joke, but there are lots of clean energy sources that don’t contribute to climate change. The problem is that most of them are very expensive, and the one that isn’t – nuclear power – is considered a public menace thanks to a few very isolated incidents.

Anonymous: What is your outlook with Eugenio Suarez moving to Third base ?? Thanks
Klaw: I think that wastes his value.

Stu Martin: Curious as to what is your “go to” news source during major breaking news? I’m sure you reference multiple outlets but which one do you go to first?
Klaw: BBC News, even for stories in the US. I find them far more objective, with almost every national US outlet clearly leaning left or right. I just want to know what happened. And if it happens to come with a delightful British accent, so much the better.

Jackie: Will Bagwell or Schilling ever make the HOF? They both seem like surefire HOFers to me, but the voters seem to think otherwise.
Klaw: Bagwell gets in this year or next. Schilling gets in eventually but has to wait a lot longer. I think his social media gaffes hurt his candidacy, though. It’s unfair – voters shouldn’t be considering that – but with ten spots on the ballot and fifteen or more worthy candidates, I think he gets left off a few for “space” reasons that really aren’t about space. (And I’ll clarify, for the umpteenth time, I like Curt as a colleague and I’d vote for him if I had a ballot.)

Michael: What do you think the timeline is on Giolito? If he makes it to the majors this year, do you think it’s a mid-season callup or a September cup of tea? Thanks for the amazing chats!
Klaw: Midseason or before. He’s very close to ready. Hoping he starts in AAA and can use all his pitches now.

DO: I’ve seen so much disagreement on the opt-out issue this month. Why don’t people understand that the opt out, by definition, ONLY benefit the player and not the team. Seems to me that folks saying that the Price opt out is a good one for the tea are betting on A) great performance years 1-3, and B) a steep decline immediately after it. Why is this hard to understand?
Klaw: It’s easy to understand, but I think it oversimplifies. You can’t treat the phases A and B like two coin flips, where you have a 25% chance of each possible future: good A and B, good A and bad B, bad A and good B, bad A and bad B. The most likely outcome for almost every free agent is good A (good performance till the opt-out) and bad B (decline starts at some point after it). Players tend to get worse as they age. Hitters lose bat speed, pitchers handle smaller workloads and get hurt. The opt-out is a killer if you’re looking at the bad A-bad B combo, and in that case, the opt-out isn’t the reason the contract sucks – it sucked no matter what and the decision not to opt out is just adding insult to injury. I’m not disagreeing with your premise – price this out as a financial option and it’s a net negative for the team – but that the odds of the various scenarios are skewed enough and the dollars are now high enough that teams who previously would have said “no” will now consider them.

Michael: Ever been interested in going on a trivia game show? Jeopardy?
Klaw: I like trivia stuff but haven’t thought about anything like that. Might be a good way to raise money for charity?

Adam Trask: Sounds like you agree with Joe Sheehan that player opt outs for pitcher a dream for clubs. At what point to pitchers stop asking for them or clubs start pushing them?
Klaw: No reason for pitchers to stop asking for them – which is a sign that they’re not “wins” for clubs. Clubs would sooner push for shorter deals overall, I think.

Andy: Andy Marte has to be one of the biggest industry wide prospect misses right? I mean it isn’t even like injuries derailed him, just a total 4A hitter.
Klaw: Yeah. And I don’t know scouts who thought he’d flop. I’m sure they exist but I haven’t found any.

Ray: Alex Speier wrote yesterday that Manual Margot is a bottom of the order hitter. Do you agree with his assessment?
Klaw: No but I’d like to know exactly what he said … I don’t think Margot is, say, a guy who’ll be the 7th or 8th most productive hitter in a lineup.

Anonymous: Adam Warren. #3 upside or is that a bit too optimistic?
Klaw: WAY too optimistic. I think he’s a great swingman.

James: tons of people here in AZ saying it’s GREAT the Dbacks gave up Swanson and Blair! For Shelby Miller… What people dont get is they didnt get enough value in return… Like shouldn’t the Dbacks asked for one of the top Braves prospects in return? Instead we got an org guy
Klaw: The public liking or disliking a deal has as much impact on the deal’s ultimate success or failure as my opinion on the deal, which is to say NONE.

Brian: All else equal opt out is good for players, negative for team. These things are priced into the contracts though. So it’s not as if teams shouldn’t put them in deals, just need to price them appropriately.
Klaw: That’s a very succinct way to put it. And I agree.

Brian: There’s been some talk that Benintendi could make the big leagues in 2016. That seems crazy to me. What do you think his promotion pace is?
Klaw: Conforto and Schwarber just did it. Why can’t Benintendi, who was the best hitter in D1 last spring?

Jackie: It seems like baseball is swimming in money again. How far off is another round of expansion, and where would you put the (presumably) two expansion teams?
Klaw: I’ve heard no impetus for that – the league expanded in the 1990s to gain cash, but here they don’t need any. I think MLB needs to put teams into markets they’re not otherwise reaching. Cities that are seeing both population growth and rising disposable income, like Austin and Nashville, are prime bets. I’d also love to see a AAA team in Havana to try to seed that market for a long-term MLB team there.

Kevin: Why do short striders blow out?
Klaw: Stress on the shoulder and/or elbow, usually the shoulder, from the abrupt release. Better for everything – health, velocity, movement, deception – to finish out front.

James: You mentioned you went out to eat with a vegen in Nashville. Have you ever thought that eating animals is weird…?
Klaw: No, usually I’m too busy enjoying them.

Chris: Surprised BOS gave up on Cecchini? Thought that was a nice add by Stearns.
Klaw: Agree. One of the better stealth moves of the offseason. No cost, fills a short-term organizational hole.

DO: RE: my question about opt outs. Obviously the other factor is that any pitcher of a certain age and performance level will always require this option in order to sign (cost of doing business with high priced FA), but taken on it’s merits, the deal always favors the player unless something unforeseen happens. If Price opts out, it’s because he is definitely worth more on the open market and will (likely) leave for that money. Now, that’s not the worst thing in the world for the team, but it also means that they are losing value on the back end of the deal.
Klaw: They’re not “losing value” on the back end because they’re not paying for it – and it’s not like they paid ahead for it in the early years. If the player opts out, the team pays nothing and gets nothing. The idea behind the opt-out being a secret gain for the team is that the player may opt out and then play worse for the new team, producing a negative ROI while the old team saves that money.

Jack: what do you think of Kaprielian – will he move quickly?
Klaw: I think so. He’s that kind of pitcher.

Tracy: If the NFL and ESPN go to a digital platform, cable might disappear. Would MLB teams that are budgeting based on huge TV contracts be screwed?
Klaw: Those contracts are guaranteed, I think, so their short-term pictures will be fine. If you’re saying the cable channels go out of business, well, as someone who hasn’t used a terrestrial, legacy cable provider for any service in 16 years, I won’t be attending their funerals.

James: Have you ever been noticed out in public in a non baseball setting? Like the grocery store or a restaurant or something
Klaw: Yes. One of you spotted me walking around Manhattan on Tuesday. My agent got a laugh out of that.

Captain Renault: Shocked that the Pharma Bro might be ethically challenged?
Klaw: Terribly. Have to think regulators were looking for any way to get him after that price-gouging stunt.

Or: Kyler Murray’s considering leaving Texas A&M. Considering he hasn’t played college baseball, could he declare for the upcoming draft? Or would his enrollment at A&M disqualify him for the next two years?
Klaw: If he goes to a juco, then yes, he’ll be draft-eligible in June.

Kevin: Follow up re short striders: what you say makes sense, but I’m wondering if there are studies that have been done on these kinds of things and if so are they accessible to the public?
Klaw: Yes, there are studies on this. I have no idea if they’re accessible to the public.

JG: Take a stab at the figures of Harper’s next contract…
Klaw: He’s at least a $40 million AAV guy in this environment. Even that might not be enough.

Bret: No other info than this, but Heyman reports the Dodgers and Rays are talking about a Jake Odorizzi trade. Does Odorizzi seem like a good candidate to improve or decline in the near future, or does he seem to be what he is, a safe #3 starter type?
Klaw: I think that’s about what he is. Good fit for LAD, actually. But by 2017 is he going to be significantly better than someone like Jose Deleon, who’s already in the system?

Gordon: Re: opt-outs being good for the team: if Price opts out at the first opportunity, the Sox will have signed him for 3/$90ish. He never would have taken that deal if offered, and the Sox wouldn’t sign him to the back half of that contract as a 33-year-old. What am I missing about how this is good for the Sox?
Klaw: I agree. The argument is that he might be terrible right away and then they’re stuck, but they’d be stuck anyway without the opt-out. I should interject here that pricing options (black-scholes stuff) is outside of any experience I have, and I am probably even going too far offering an opinion like this given that fact.

Nowhere to Ace?: Francis Martes came out of nowhere, as did Snell for that matter. Do you have confidence that these guys can be frontline starters, not just on their respective teams but on competitive teams?
Klaw: I had Snell on various lists since his junior year of HS. He just developed a bit late, but it’s probably #2 stuff. Martes had huge stuff even when he was traded but I think the Astros may have been the only group to see him and realize how advanced he was as a pitcher. I have notes on him from last winter but didn’t even include him in my Houston writeup because he seemed like one of many far-away high-upside Latin American arms there.

Bob: Did your departure from Toronto relate to drafting Troy Tulowitzki?
Klaw: No, it related to my wife and I drafting a daughter, and my general unhappiness with the job.

James: Will you please bring back podcast this next year?
Klaw: I am working on this. It’s one of two major work-related projects for 2016.

Thad: Is Victor Robles just another hyped toolsy guy or is there something to all the chatter about him?
Klaw: Legit. Maybe more leadoff type because it’s probably not big power but exciting tools across the board besides that.

Jack: Is there any chance that Labourt can start in the big leagues?
Klaw: Zero.

G-funk: I want to get my parents interested in some more involved boardgames. Any suggestions for beginners?
Klaw: Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride are two good gateway games that make sense to newbies but offer hints of the world of games beyond Monopoly. Splendor probably does too. They’re all high on my ranking of my top 80 boardgames of all time.

Adam: Gordon, you’re only looking at one outcome and that’s the best case scenario. What happens if Price goes “full Sabathia”?
Klaw: But if he does, the Sox are screwed with or without the opt-out, right?

Josie: Raimel Tapia’s batting stance will not fly in the big leagues, will it? Seems a little gimmicky.
Klaw: I want to say no, but I said that about Pedroia back in the day (swing, not stance, but it’s the same general thing), and how’d that work out for me?

JJ: Does Trey Ball take a step forward in his development this year?
Klaw: I haven’t given up on him. He’s a good athlete who was very raw when drafted. People who call him a bust now are ignoring the history of guys like Snell, pitchers who scuffle for a few years as they mature physically and emotionally.

Jeff: The argument I see is that if a player opts out, it’s because they believe they are worth more to some other team through free agency. If that’s the case, then the team losing the player is losing an underpriced asset that could have been kept below market rate or traded for something else of value. Good for the player, bad for the team.
Klaw: But he couldn’t have been kept below market rate, right? If he could have, he would have signed. And the team can certainly trade him before he opts out. In the meantime, they’re gaining the surplus value generated by his performance above his cost and can apply that to other players on the current roster.

Jack: Ok, so ‘no’ on Labourt – is Keury Mella in that same category?
Klaw: Has a chance. Odds are Mella is a reliever but I won’t say no on starter.

Danny: If you wanted to donate some board games to a homeless shelter during the holidays, would you go with the old fashioned standbys or are there more current games that would be a good choice?
Klaw: To buy and donate? Just pick ones that are simple to learn, like the ones I suggested above. I would not donate games with lengthy rules that require lots of prep time or repeated plays to enjoy, since I assume the people playing them will be changing frequently over time and they might only play these games once or twice. It’s a wonderful idea, BTW.

Paul: Are you as excited as I am about Nick Williams in Citizens Bank park?
Klaw: Apparently not. Has CBP been raised to a mile above sea level? I don’t think so because then I could probably see it from my house.

Dave: Reds’ fan here – I’m pretty angry about the Frazier trade. Part of me worries that they panicked when the Chapman trade fell through, and wanted to get Peraza at all costs. The only justification I’ve read is that the Reds brass “loves” Peraza — but it seems to me that if the Braves and Dodgers are both willing to dump him (the Dodgers must think they got better value in the propects they got than what they gave up) shouldn’t that be a warning to the Reds that, perhaps, YOU are the team that is mis-evaluating the trade?
Klaw: Yeah, I think the Reds’ FO overvalued Peraza and probably the other two guys as well. Don’t see why they couldn’t have gotten a better prospect from the Dodgers here.

Chris: Is there a chance Tyler Austin could be the 25th man on the Yanks, as 5th OF and backing up 3B and 1B?
Klaw: No, and they took him off the 40-man because he hasn’t hit at all since the wrist injuries.

Ted: The Avi Garcia experiment should be considered over, correct?
Klaw: I was never a big fan – I saw a future fourth OF, which meant I hated the Tigers if I remember correctly – but he’s 24 and I don’t think they should just discard him unless someone clearly better comes along. I think he has more power than he’s shown but his OBPs will probably always be terrible.

TJ: You left Toronto because your wife and you drafted a daughter? What’s her scouting report on the 20-80 scale?
Klaw: She’s an 80 daughter except when it comes to doing her homework.

That Guy: Keith, I ask this of you as a guy who’s been to many more MiLB parks than me. I sort of thought everything would be more minor at them — including concession prices. That has proved not to be the case, at least in my experience. Is my sample size too small or is this just the way it is?
Klaw: I almost never get food at minor league parks and of course I don’t drink there, so I don’t know. Maybe their pricing model is to charge a pittance for admission and make up for it with higher margins on food and beverage?

R: Any chance Glasnow gets a call up this year?
Klaw: I think it’s a lock if he’s not hurt.

Steve: In your opinion, was part of Theo’s game plan this offseason to improve specifically at the expense of the Cardinals, or do you think that is just how it worked out?
Klaw: I think it was all just very convenient. I doubt he wanted to give St. Louis two supplemental draft picks.

James: Ever eat fast food?
Klaw: Extremely rarely and it’s not a pleasant experience when i do. I’ve had fast food once in the last two months – Panda Express, because there was nothing else around I could stomach – and it was not good.

chris: Is Goeddel a, say, Piscotty-type player? What do you expect we see from him?
Klaw: I don’t see any similarities there. I think Goeddel can stick as a fourth outfielder. And if not, well, his dad’s a billionaire and one of the smartest men in the world so I’m sure Tyler will be OK.

Grant: Twins announced they are adding netting above the dugouts next year. Good call?
Klaw: I’m completely in favor of this.

Bob: I was due to give a paper at a conference in Rome; they’ve since asked me to present a poster instead. Should I be miffed, or . . . is going to Rome more important?
Klaw: Dude, you’re going to Rome. For a trip there I’d present a roll of toilet paper.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all as always for all of your questions. I may try to sneak in a chat before Christmas, so please stay tuned to my Twitter account and Facebook page for any announcements. Thanks for reading!

Klaw: Come for the wuggas, but stay for the jiggy-juggas. Klawchat.

Jean Lazure: Hi Keith – you said this morning in your appreciation of Ricardo Rodriguez that he has “more skills than tools”. Is a tool innate and a skill learned? Was just wondering…thanks.
Klaw: That’s a good quick and dirty summary. Tools are largely physical – run, power, throw – but can incorporate the mechanical too. Skills represent refinement, and are about what happens during games more than tools, which express raw abilities.

Jack: Thoughts on Oaklands offseason so far? Personally not a huge fan of relief expenditures or selling so low on Lawrie.
Klaw: A bit confused. I’ve never believed in buying relievers, especially when your budget is low. I don’t know if they sold low on Lawrie so much as they got rid of a guy whose character flaws outweigh his mediocre production.

Bob: Overall thoughts on the Chapman situation ??
Klaw: If he did what his girlfriend accused him of doing, I’d be fine with never seeing him in an MLB uniform again.

Danny: Orioles seem lost at sea again. Have to be early leaders for worst offseason direction so far.
Klaw: I’m really not a fan of judging any team’s offseason when they haven’t done much yet. There’s a lot of time left and a lot of players without teams.

Rauzer17: Which is worse, the Opryland Hotel or downtown Detroit?
Klaw: Well you’re not likely to get shot at the Opryland, but you might die of starvation wandering its halls.

Nelson: Will we be getting a Nashville dining review?
Klaw: Of course, although I only went to three new places. Two Ten Jack was the big group dinner and an enormous hit. I love everything about that place.

LarryA: Do you think Henson is ready to take over yet in Pit after the Walker trade?
Klaw: I assume the infield includes Harrison and Kang at 2b and 3b.

Mmmmmmm: Could Javier Baez really play CF?
Klaw: I doubt it.

Jimbo: Can you give Braves fans an idea of just how great it is to have picked up Dansby Swanson?
Klaw: It’s “having a major league stadium on public transit” great.

Rob: How did Dave Stewart get a GM job?
Klaw: His buddy hired him. That’s the number one way to get a GM or manager job in baseball right now – make sure you have a friend doing the hiring.

Jérôme Champagne: Any recommendations for two player entry level board games? I saw you mention 7 Wonders Dual but that seems a bit intimidating for someone new to board games.
Klaw: Jaipur. If you go to my top 80 boardgames (http://klaw.me/1iWV10k) there’s a ranking of two-player games at the bottom.

Barry: What do you think about Mark Shapiro’s response to the Jays’ limited activity since signing Happ? Is a front office’s obligation to ‘run a successful business’ or is it to win? Winning can make a business successful, but doesn’t it work the other way only rarely?
Klaw: Winning generally leads to financial success in baseball. Losing sometimes does, especially when the league is subsidizing you (coughMarlinscough), but winning is a much better formula.

Bobby: Small trade, I know, but any thoughts on the SP’s the Yanks got back in the J Wilson deal? Also, re “Too Many Cooks,” I am not a big believer in changing original text, but I do agree that the repeated use of that word diminish the ability to enjoy the text. In this case, I would probably advocate making a change and hoping a good forward or note on the topic fosters interesting discussion. Thanks, as always…
Klaw: I like Cessa as a depth guy, liked him for Detroit in the Cespedes deal but think Wilson provides now value and fits their roster better. Not sure why the Yanks have become cost-conscious all of a sudden.

Corey: Are you going to do an espn writeup for the bethancourt trade or can you comment here?
Klaw: Already posted about a half hour ago. Here it is.

Marshall: Dusty Baker sure is off to a “great” start as manager for the Nats with his supportive comments toward Chapman. The more Baker talks the more he sounds like a guy stuck in a bygone era.
Klaw: What he’s saying isn’t just insensitive, but indicative of someone who doesn’t think before he speaks. That should concern the Nats’ FO and ownership most of all.

Silv: Any idea as to the return from the Dodger side in the Chapman deal? Leaving aside his alleged actions, abhorrent as they may be, I’m having a hard time understanding why LA would deal the rumored two+ of their top ten prospects for a 65 inning reliever, regardless of how hard he throws.
Klaw: No idea, and while I know someone said it was “two significant prospects” on air the other night, I don’t even know if THAT was true. The one way I could justify it for LAD would be if they intended to use Chapman for more like 100 innings in relief. He could be a 4 WAR reliever, higher by WPA if the manager used him in high-leverage situations.

Josh: What are your thoughts on Jabari Blash (other than the outstanding name)?
Klaw: Always thought he was a AAA or 4A slugger type. Toolsy but not very disciplined. This was his third straight year with AA time and second in the PCL.

Jason: Tell us about Dansby Swanson, can he really be a 15/25 guy and does he go back to second base with the Braves having Albies at SS?
Klaw: No, I think he’s the one who pushes Albies, whose arm is a little light for short, to second. I don’t know what the 15/25 refers to.

Josh: Are the Padres crazy for having four Rule 5 guys on the roster, or is it a decent gamble that one may pay off for a relatively small investment?
Klaw: Doubt they keep more than two. Really no disincentive to do what they’re doing – $25K a pop for extended tryouts in March.

Tom: Much to make about LAA trading Gott for Escobar?
Klaw: Not really. Should ensure Rendon goes back to 3b where he belongs.

Silv: Does Utley actually have anything left, or are the Dodgers basically paying him 7mm for #grit. Friedman wouldn’t be so foolish as to block Peraza, right?
Klaw: Don’t think he has much left but I wouldn’t say he’s done. Half a year in AAA wouldn’t kill Peraza – in fact, I’d move him back to short and see if he can still do it.

Bruce: Do you get more or less questions now than over at ESPN?
Klaw: Fewer in total, but no fewer quality questions.

Josh: If you are the Padres, do you try to stretch out Pomeranz in the spring, or leave him in the pen?
Klaw: Bullpen. Never has had a good enough changeup to get RHB out.

Josh: Rosenthal, Heyman, and others are reporting Heyward to the Cubs. On paper, are the Cubs the best team in baseball right now?
Klaw: I think so. But I wonder if this opens them up to trade Soler. Heyward can handle CF but I doubt he’s plus there. We know he’s ridiculously good in RF.

M. Pemulis (Enfield): How has the ratio of trolls to real questions changed since the chats moved over to here?
Klaw: Most trolls are gone. Also don’t get the people who complain that I answer non-baseball questions.

Chris: How long until Boras calls up Ted Lerner to give Davis a monster contract since they missed out on Heyward?
Klaw: You act like that hasn’t already happened in the last ten minutes.

Mar: You’ve mentioned before fans don’t understand basic economics and that’s why they disapprove of player salaries. I’m skeptical economics truly drives salaries. Do teams know the relation between wins (or even star power) and revenues?
Klaw: Hell yes they do.

Skip: What are your thoughts on Maeda? Where should he slot into a rotation?
Klaw: Fourth starter. Very worried about durability. Smaller frame guy who’s had some issues getting through a full season healthy.

Zach: Given your love of literature and coming from a front office background, was it natural for you to begin writing? Is the writing process still frustrating for you at times, or did you fall into it pretty naturally?
Klaw: I’ve always been a natural writer (in the sense that I don’t find it difficult or frustrating, not that I’m some innate Hemingway). I’m more comfortable expressing myself in writing than verbally, although I’ve had to get better at the latter.

Chris: Bethancourt and Alfaro seem similar based on write up on bethancourt, is that the case?
Klaw: Yes. Alfaro’s a better hitter though.

Adam: Hi Keith–I was curious if you’ve ever tried cooking sous vide-style at home?
Klaw: I have not. Devices were pretty expensive until the last year or so.

Ben: Confirmed that Cubs got Heyward. You think that’s a better use of resources than grabbing a CF and another SP?
Klaw: Not sure they need another SP; Hammel is the 5, and they have Warren and Wood in the pen as long options, which could also make Hendricks a short starter. CF options this winter weren’t great. All depends on the cost but I don’t think this is a poor use of resources. Also bear in mind that next winter’s free agent class is a dumpster fire.

Marshall: Until proven otherwise do the Twins just need to treat Alex Meyer as reliever rather than a starter?
Klaw: Yes. Needs to show he can throw enough strikes first, then to get some left-handed hitters out.

Boogie: It’s being reported that the Cubs “won the Heyward sweepstakes”. How good does this make them? Adding Zobrist/Heyward is an amazing offseason…
Klaw: I love that phrasing – like Casey Close just showed up at the door, but instead of carrying a giant check, he was asking for one.

Joshua: With it looking like the Nats (hopefully) will have Turner starting as their SS, what can you tell me about Difo. Is he a legitimate starting threat at 2B this year, or should I still be expecting to see Espinosa out there? Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: I don’t think he’s ready now, but he could be their starting 2b in 2017. Pretty toolsy kid who put everything together a little late, like Willson Contreras with the Cubs.

Chad: Where does that leave the Cards? without Lynn, an OF Grichuk and Piscotty and Adams at first.. that’s not exactly encouraging? Do they sign a different OF?
Klaw: I don’t know their plans – I’m sure they’re scrambling a little bit right now – but I think they’d be better served to see if there’s a hitter available in trade, and spending their available cash on one of the many good SP out there. Leake and Kazmir come to mind immediately.

Archie: Higher ceiling Gleyber Torres or Ozhaino Albies?
Klaw: Torres. Better fielder and I think more chance to hit for power. Albies is the safer bet to hit.

Chris: Nola Hellickson Oberholtzer Velazquez Eickhoff?
Klaw: Is this some sort of curse?

Bruce: Will you ever write a novel?
Klaw: I would love to do so. There are one or two projects I need to complete (or start and complete) first.

Ray: Thoughts on Derek Fisher- can he be a low average, high OBP, 20+ HR, 20+ SB hitter in Philly or do we need to see how he performs in AA?
Klaw: I’m a bit down on him after that first year in pro ball and a very bad look in the AFL after I saw him so much better in college. Lot of holes in his game for someone whose tools are so damn good.

Ed: Have you been to Blais’ crack shack yet? Very good fried chicken, sides aren’t the best.
Klaw: No, but I’ll probably get there in March. I think Hedges has value because there is always more demand for catching than supply, but yeah, the way they mishandled him in 2015 didn’t help.

Anonymous: Just started working at Rice University—any players of note to watch there in 2016-2017?
Klaw: Duplantier, if he’s not hurt, which he has been, which I know you’ll find terribly surprising for a Rice pitcher.

TJ: Two HOF write-in voters for Pete Rose so far…
Klaw: An utterly pointless gesture, regardless of his merits as a player.

Brandon in DC: In discussing the Jason Hayward free agency with a friend of mine, he said he was dubious of Heyward’s value because he believes WAR overweights defensive metrics. I know the calculation and components of the various forms of WAR have been often debated, but what is your current view about the weight given to defense, and whether you think WAR would properly measure Heyward’s value? Thanks!
Klaw: I think defensive metrics, especially the proprietary ones that teams use, are more accurate than critics understand, even if they lack the precision that offensive measures provide. The question is seldom “how much was he worth” but “how much will he be worth?” To answer the latter, you need to try to impute the player’s true talent level from his performance. That is less about precision in a single period of time and more about directional accuracy over a larger sample.

Jesse: Hi Keith, thank you for your advocacy for mental health and science issues. I’m interested in your thoughts on GMOs – I am not against the development of GMOs on principle as many people are, but do have a fear that the biotech industry is writing the rules and don’t trust individual corporations to regulate themselves. Despite GMOs being generally safe and effective, I can’t get over the fear of an environmental catastrophe is something is developed without adequate oversight. You seem comfortable with the use of GMOs, how do you reconcile this concern?
Klaw: Comfortable but concerned would be a good way to put it. Evolution has been genetically modifying organisms for millions of years, yet only one has become dangerous enough to wipe out thousands of other species and take over the planet: Us.

Jack K: What about Jason Heyward’s swing are scouts concerned about? Do you see a higher offensive ceiling for him?
Klaw: The Cards made some tweaks last year that helped him. He starts high and often comes a bit down towards the ball, which produces a lot of groundballs, something he didn’t do as much as a minor leaguer. He’s big enough and has the lower body strength to hit for more power. I think there’s a chance he does that now.

Alison: Odds that the draft picks the Cards get from the Cubs signings turn out to be HOF’s.
Klaw: I’m going to say under 1%. Had to think for a second about it when you said “picks” but you’re right (and I was wrong!).

Jack: What are your thoughts on Renato Nunez? I’ve read conflicting reports about his ability to stick at third, and it doesn’t seem his bat will carry playing first.
Klaw: That’s about right. I don’t know if he stays at third, and he probably won’t, but I’d give him every chance to do so.

Brando: Think that the BBWAA HOF voters hold it against Griffey for being a prick during his career? I bet it cost him some votes
Klaw: Maybe a couple but it won’t matter in the end. He’ll get 95% or more. And yeah, he was not a good guy, especially not as a teammate (so I hear – this is terribly secondhand, so feel free to dismiss it), but he skates on that while Bonds gets murdered for it.

Matt: With Greinke Miller Corbin leading Dbacks rotation this makes them the favorite for the NL west correct?
Klaw: Ehhhhhh i’m not so sure about that. As I said above, there’s a lot of offseason left to be played. They may think Corbin’s ready to make 32-33 starts, but in his first full year back from TJ that’s very foolhardy. They were also well behind LAD/SF on paper coming into the winter; they’re slightly ahead now, but the other two clubs have barely made any moves while the Dbacks are probably done. AZ still needs something in the middle infield, though; Ahmed is terrible and Owings isn’t much better.

Jugdish: I know you are a Top Chef fan. Do you liked Chopped and have you ever tried to be a contestant?
Klaw: No, and no – aren’t those contestants actual chefs?

Adam: What should the Braves do with all of these OF’s? Wouldnt the best move be to play Olivera at 3rd and see if he at least improves until they can clear the OF traffic?
Klaw: He was pretty awful at 3b and 2b, and he’s not a prospect – he’s old enough that hoping for improvement is wishful thinking.

Archie: Do you see Drury opening the season as the Dbacks 2B if they don’t trade for Phillips?
Klaw: If he shows his glove is good enough. He was not good last spring when I saw him in AZ.

Alison: Alison 1, Klaw 0. It was a tongue in cheek question because no matter who they lose, things tend to work out for the Cards. And not work out for my Cubs.
Klaw: you forgot to say #cardsdevilmagic.

Horacio: Hi Keith, I was introduced into Chvrches by one of your previous ‘best of’ lists and now I love them. I attended a concert a couple of weeks ago here in London and it was superb. I just wanted to thank you for that!
Klaw: They’re so good – and good live, which I didn’t expect because Mayberry has something of a “little” voice.

Greyson: Considering Christian Bethancourt’s ridiculous arm (I still remember his snap throw at the 2012 futures game) and problems receiving, could he be converted to a pitcher? Or is it too late?
Klaw: A scout I know well suggested that maybe four years ago to me, and I think the idea still has merit. He’d have to be mid-90s.

Jeff: Keith, is John Hart just smarter than everyone else in the room or does he have some naked photos of them with their mistresses? I don’t understand how he keep getting these teams to make trades like the Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson and others.
Klaw: Atlanta (I think Coppolella is the one making the calls rather than Hart) has done an excellent job of taking advantage of a GM with no effective front office experience and what appears to be a thoroughly outdated view of the game.

James: The Royals are saying they thing Bubba Starling will become a starting OF in the future, but I don’t see it. What are you thoughts?
Klaw: Too optimistic for me.

Chris: JP Crawford go full time in 2017 at this rate?
Klaw: I think by July 1st he’s the shortstop in Philly, barring injury or cholera or something.

Pat: To your knowledge, do or have the Blue Jays used financial derivatives to hedge exchange rate risk, particularly is much of their revenue is C$ but their expenses are US$ (player salaries)?
Klaw: Yes, they have for at least 15 years. I think it’s even in Rogers’ annual report.

Josh: What are your thoughts on AJ Preller? Seems to me he cleared out some prospects he wasn’t high on last year for a chance at a run, but after it didn’t work he is flipping them for prospects he does like.
Klaw: That’s a fair characterization, and I’m pretty good with that overall, although I thought all last year that failing to address CF or SS or the lack of RHB in the lineup were mistakes.

Joshua: Curiosity questions: I know (or maybe presume I know) that you are not a big Pearl Jam fan. I have read that you really like(d) Mother Love Bone. Just curious as to why. Thanks.
Klaw: Very different sounds IMO. Pearl Jam derives more from classic blues-rock and arena rock. MLB (!) were more influenced by psychedelia, and Andrew Wood’s lyrics were insanely great.

Dan: According to Alex Pavlovic, Giants might be considering Christian Arroyo in LF…do you see this as a legitimate possibility?
Klaw: Silly. No reason he can’t play 2b. I know Panik is there now, but a) I think Arroyo might end up a better player and b) something totally unexpected could change Panik’s career arc too.

Jesse: What is your gut on Dansby Swanson and his upside
Klaw: At least an above-average everyday shortstop who may make a couple of All-Star teams in his career. And I think he could be ready at some point in 2016 if Atlanta allows him to move quickly – start him in high-A, move to AA if he wrecks the league like I expect.

Mark: Are certain tools available throughout the draft? For example, can you find an 80 runner in the 40th round? How about an 80 fastball guy in the 30th round? How about 80 power, 80 defense?
Klaw: Anything after the 10th round is no longer about talent but about signability now. You can definitely find 80 runners who can’t do anything else into the 8th-10th round range. I know of potential 80 defenders (future 60 or 70, project to 80) who’ve gone in the 6th or 7th. Those are guys who have massive deficiencies somewhere else – an 80 defender in center with a 30 hit tool isn’t flying off the board.

Jeff: When will we get your review of the Top Chef episode from last night? I thought it was a pretty interesting episode. I’ve been to the Sanford Winery and not only is it a beautiful property, but the wines are very good.
Klaw: I haven’t watched it yet – my sister-in-law and niece were here this morning and I wanted to spend time with them and also not expose the baby to that sort of language.

Corey: If somehow Moncada, Devers and Benintendi all arrive roughly at the same time, say ’18, where do you play them and where is Mookie in that alignment ?
Klaw: Moncada 2b, Devers 3b, Benintendi cf/rf, Betts cf/wherever. He can play a lot of places. I presume Bogaerts at ss still.

Silv: No question, just a comment. Good golly, the Cubs are LOADED.
Klaw: Yes. They have good players, too.

James: Michael Gettys or Monte Harrison?
Klaw: Harrison has more chance to hit. Gettys has crazy tools but has never hit at all and his swing has always had problems.

James: After a club loses its first draft pick, does it matter how many more it loses. For the Cubs, they have lost a first round and either a sandwich pick or a second rounder, do they care if they lose the next pick?
Klaw: Nope. I would never let a second-round pick stop me from signing a premium free agent. First-round yes, second-round … I guess I’ll say almost never.

Greg: Does Yordano Ventura ever become a top 20 pitcher or have we seen his best?
Klaw: I don’t think we’ve seen his best, but he’s got to be one of the biggest blowout risks of any MLB starter.

Lenny: Are you receptive to questions from obvious pseudonyms or “celebrity imposters” as long as the questions are legit/respectful? Or do you prefer answering questions from people who are apparently using their real names? Just curious for future reference.
Klaw: Doesn’t matter. I don’t usually look at the names at all, just the questions. As long as you’re civil, I’ll take any question, even ones that criticize me or call me out for my stupidity.

Chris: Do you watch video of players that you’ve correctly scouted to keep your eye trained for what to look for, or any similar practice?
Klaw: Much better use of time to revisit guys I got wrong. Although I don’t have enough time to do that much.

James: I was diagnosed with bipolar disorder last April and I hear that things like meditation will help me immensely. Any other reccomendation Keith? Thanks!
Klaw: EMMET: Exercise, Meditation, Medication, Eating better, Therapy. Bipolar is serious bidness, much more so than my anxiety, so definitely work with your doctor on finding meds that help.

Greg: Keith, where did you learn to scout from? Did you go to scout school?
Klaw: From colleagues with Toronto and scout friends over the years. I did not go to scout school. Scout school does not teach you to be a scout. Plenty of people brag about going to scout school and couldn’t tell a player from a potted plant.

Chris: Have there been any recent misses that made you wonder what you were looking at or caused you to look again?
Klaw: I write about 5-6 of them or more every September on ESPN.com. Missing on Goldschmidt has made me look at Rhys Hoskins differently, to give you one recent example.

Rob: Does the Bethancourt trade have any implications for Derek Norris? What’s your view on him? Still improving? Is what he is? Other?
Klaw: Norris can hit and isn’t a very good catcher. Either he goes to 1b or gets traded. I don’t think he’s going to last as a catcher in this new, defense-conscious environment.

Andrew: Your thoughts on Mizzou pitcher Tanner Houck or too early to speculate for a 2017 guy?
Klaw: He’s got first-round possibilities but I don’t like getting that far ahead unless it’s a clear top-of-the-draft guy.

Marshall: If the Marlins are a in “rebuilding phase” (seemingly on an endless loop) and receptive to trading Jose Fernandez, wouldn’t now be the perfect time to see what the market is for Dee Gordon?
Klaw: I don’t think their ownership allows the front office to stick to a single coherent strategy. They have smart people there, but Loria and Samwise there can’t stop interfering.

Adam: Does Mississippi State have any prospects this year?
Klaw: Dakota Hudson, who I think is supposed to be healthy in the spring.

JD: The Braves are offering some kind of “tracking stock” where you can essentially invest in the team without being an actual investor. Huh?
Klaw: I really thought those fell out of favor ten years ago. They were a bad idea then and are no better now.

Corey: Corollary to the Moncada, Devers, et al question – what do the Sox do with Pedroia then ? Obvious answer is a trade but that’s complicated given who we’re talking about. Put him in the Holt super UT role? 1B ?
Klaw: Pedroia is 32, may be starting to break down, and is clearly not the hitter he was two or three years ago. If he’s not your best 2b, you sit him.

Joshua: What are your thoughts on Tanner Roark? With the Nats losing both Zimmermann and Fister, he seems to be a logical choice for their rotation. However, if past indications tell me anything about this year, the Nats may not be sold on him. What are your thoughts? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he’s a back-end starter for almost any team in baseball. If the Nats don’t think that and aren’t planning to use him as an Adam Warren-type swing man, they should trade him because I’m pretty sure they could get something they value in return.

Marshall: If David Samson is Samwise, does that make Loria Frodo or Gollum?
Klaw: I thought it was obvious. He’s Sauron. And that’s all for this week’s chat! Thanks for joining me. I’ll be back next week, most likely on Thursday, and then we’ll play it by ear the week of Christmas. Look for something on Heyward later today after we know his contract details. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!

Klaw: A chance encounter, you want to avoid the inevitable, the Klawchat.

Clark: Why do smart front offices make bad decisions?
Klaw: I feel like you should ask your rabbi that question.

Brady: Hi Keith, thanks for chatting. There’s been a lot of Shelby Miller for Jorge Soler speculation, but Miller had 2.5 more WAR last year than Soler has had in his career. Would you trade Miller for Soler straight up?
Klaw: Different service time and cost, plus higher innate risk of a pitcher, makes that a reasonable deal for both sides in my eyes.

scottdsimon: Would you give a quick preview of your Paste review of two-player 7 Wonders?
Klaw: I liked it (7 Wonders Duel), but it’s not quite 7 Wonders for two players – same theme, somewhat simpler mechanics, more direct interaction.

Anonymous: Keith, thanks again for the chat. Any surprises among the non-tenders, and anyone you’d think a good candidate on which to take a flyer?
Klaw: Nicasio jumped out at me. Some guys who were non-tendered just to sneak them off the 40, like Rosell Herrera or Domingo German (who had TJ last winter), would be worth a look. I don’t know what to make of Minor or H Alvarez, since both had shoulder surgery and I don’t know what their outlooks are. A little surprised at Chris Carter – I think I’d rather take another year of him than of Gattis.

mike: Aside from adding a power arm or two to the bullpen do you think the BlueJays are done adding to roster?
Klaw: I thought Shapiro said they were done with major adds. BTW, remember those stupid rumors about how some “source” said the Jays were David Price’s top choice, or that they were negotiating a deal? So much BS out there this time of year from people who want clicks or retweets.

Miles: Thoughts on Kivlehan?
Klaw: Fringe to non-prospect. 1B only, good approach, limited tools.

Bradley: After seeing what Zimmerman and Price signed for, $63 million over the next three years for Shields doesn’t look so bad to me. Yes, Zimmerman and Price are younger, but if somebody is looking for a solid No.2 or 3, Shields looks like a reasonable option.
Klaw: I agree. Seems like he’s got real trade value if they want to move him.

Tom: I finally disagreed with you on a board game. Tried Race for the Galaxy last night and loved it. First time for everything. Thanks again for all the reviews. You’ve singlehandedly increased our family together time by sparking my and my kids’ interest in board games. Always much appreciated. Keep up the good work.
Klaw: I’m in the minority on RftG. Most folks who like serious games love it.

James: Hey Keith, is there any worry about Luis Ortiz’s weight gain? I love his stuff but I’m worried that his weight becomes an issue if he doesn’t get it under control
Klaw: Absolutely. Guy’s as big as a house right now.

Donald X: Play the new Dominion app yet?
Klaw: Reviews are awful so no. Plus they want $15 for expansions, which is high comedy.

Chad: Why is Pandemic so much lower on your 2 player rankings, then your overall rankings? I bought it on Cyber Monday, and I primarily play with my wife, and I was just curious if there was a clear problem with the two man gameplay?
Klaw: I think two-person games turn into one-person games.

Ryan: With Jeimer Candelario’s showing in the AFL, is he a viable MLB player and is he only a 3B
Klaw: Can’t play 3b.

Pops: Alen Hanson PIT a starter at 2B for you or a utility guy?
Klaw: Starter.

Joe: Any chance Mark Trumbo can be a 2 WAR player again in Camden Yards?
Klaw: Not there or anywhere. OPACY is not this great hitters’ park that some folks (including media/broadcasters) think it is.

Bradley: What was your favorite dish at Thanksgiving this year?
Klaw: I was very pleased with the Kale Caesar with duck confit – I made Ruhlman’s Caesar dressing from his book Egg, using confit oil, and (since my wife does not eat any seafood) using about 1 Tbsp of white miso in lieu of the anchovies to keep some umami in the dish. Plus my daughter and I then ate all the extra duck legs for dinner the next few nights. But that wasn’t the biggest hit with the guests – they crushed the basics, including the from-scratch g.b.c.

Jace: Other than move to Australia, is there any real chance for living in a sane gun control environment in my lifetime?
Klaw: This is morbid, but if a major celebrity is killed in one of these massacres, that might do it. Or campaign finance refoHAHAHAHA oh my God I almost got that out.

Ryan: I don’t understand all of this interest the Mets are showing in Ben Zobrist. A long-term contract to a 35 year old second baseman? No, thanks. What is it about Dilson Herrera that the Mets don’t like?
Klaw: Hey, Zobrist is a good player, but four years? That makes no sense to me.

Jeremy: what is a reasonable comp for Benitendi? Adam Eaton?
Klaw: Like him more than that. More power.

Todd: If I told you five years ago Keuchel and Kluber would win consecutive Cy Young awards, how crazy would I have looked? Which guy surprised you more?
Klaw: Keuchel. Saw him in college, 5th starter type. Totally overhauled his arsenal before 2014. Guy deserves a ton of credit.

Vin: Seems like both Cueto and Samardzjia will get more than $100 million. Who would you feel more comfortable giving that contract to?
Klaw: Cueto.

Nick: How often does a guy who doesn’t take any walks, such as grichuk, change their approach to do so? Could he be an all star with an upped walk rate?
Klaw: It’s very rare for that to happen and last at all. I don’t think he’ll do it.

Alex: Would you give Grienke a 6th year? Sounds like that is going to be what it will take for either the Dodgers or Giants to get him.
Klaw: Yes.

Craig: What is Josh Hader’s ceiling after his AFL performance? #3 starter?
Klaw: still think that’s a reliever all the way. Low slot for a starter, lot of effort, questionable command.

Steve: Just wanted to say thanks for the recommendation on the food lab and the note it was 30% off at Amazon. About 50 pages in and it is a great read.
Klaw: That book is amazing other than its sheer heft.

Ray: What kind of player do the Dodgers have in Yusniel Diaz? More bat than power or a little of both?
Klaw: Power/speed guy. Lot of tools meaning high upside but more risk than Estevez, the other Cuban they signed the same day (both Boras clients, IIRC), who has better feel to hit right now but lacks the big tools.

Ryan: Know anything about Jose Miguel Fernandez?
Klaw: He was actually on my top free agents ranking last winter, prematurely as it turned out. Chance to be an above-average everyday player.

Bret: It’s not a major deal, but I was surprised that the Jays kept Justin Smoak around for $3.9M. What do they see in him?
Klaw: Platoon bat with plus defense at first. Slight overpay IMO – probably a $2MM player.

Ben: Byung Ho Park – thoughts on his deal?
Klaw: Less than I thought he’d get, which is good for the Twins and also an example of how this posting system sucks for the players.

Ian: Is Jose Berrios a (potential) front of the rotation starter? I know you’ve had concerns about his height limiting his ceiling.
Klaw: Don’t think so. He’s likely to be too homer-prone with that flat fastball.

Tyler: Can Jason Heyward be a above average CF defender for the likely life of the contract he signs this offseason (6-7 years+)?
Klaw: No, I don’t think so.

nb: Hey Keith – Thanks for these chats. They’ve become one of my favorite hours of the week! Just wanted to know when we will start seeing your organizational rankings on the mothership. Thanks
Klaw: End of January for the whole thing. I always do the entire prospect package at once, over a three-day span.

Ryan from Richmond: When is the Rule 5?
Klaw: Next Thursday morning. I fly home late that morning so I may not attend it in person – not that the rule 5 matters much any more.

Alan: Just wanted to let you know my thoughts and prayers are with you through this chat.
Klaw: Thanks, Alan, really feelin’ the love right now.

Patrick: I know that lineup order has been shown to not have much importance, but am I crazy to use it as the main thing I judge a manager on? It is the decision that the manager has the most time and information to make as opposed to in game decisions that need to be made in an instant. I equate it to an open book test where it is really inexcusable to get questions incorrect.
Klaw: You’re right if you’re looking at a manager who puts a low OBP guy in the 1 or 2 spots and you think he’s a moron for doing so, because he is.

Bob@TheGoldenTriangle: Your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez getting non-tendered (released, really), please. How did he perform based on what you saw of him as a prospect.
Klaw: I loved the power, saw high risk with the swing and miss and the inability to hit lefties. Also didn’t think the body would stay at 3b long term. I remember ranking him around #37 one year on my top 100, and getting called all kinds of names by (some) angry pirates fans. Some high-risk guys work out; that one didn’t.

Alan: Felt like every guy the Giants brought up was able to contribute (Crawford, Panik, Duffy, Tomlinson, etc) despite having a system that is always seen as pitching heavy at best. What’s the Giants secret sauce?
Klaw: Pretty good system for getting the most out of high-contact bats. Lot of folks in the game credit Meulens and Bochy. Some of that was fluky though – Tomlinson has so little power it’s hard to see pitchers even giving him the opportunity to hit .300, and Crawford’s first-half spike was a mirage.

Bill G.: Which do you believe will have a better career, Max Kepler or Odubel Herrera. Also, have you played with any of the simulation baseball games like DMB, if so which do you like best? Thanks!
Klaw: Kepler, and no, I haven’t played any sim games.

Vin: What have you heard about Kenta Maeda? Is he more of a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Klaw: I think that’s where he ends up if he comes here and has to pitch every fifth day. Plus splitter, average to slightly above avg fastball, very small/slight guy who doesn’t look very durable and missed a handful of starts in 2013 and 2014.

Ian: Early 2016 draft question but who goes #1?
Klaw: If Alec Hansen is healthy, he’s my bet. Jason Groome and AJ Puk are possibilities too, although I think that’s too much for Puk – if I’m going pitcher at 1-1 I want a better athlete.

Josh Bell: So, does this mean I’ll get the call quicker?
Klaw: Not if you can’t make a significant improvement in your defense at first base.

Tom: You mentioned on Twitter yesterday that fans complain about player salaries but not owner profits (hey, no one complains about movie actor salaries either) but shouldn’t fans be concerned how contracts affect teams’ abilities to put together future rosters? Or, say in Price’s case, how many guys have been productive in the 7th year of these long term deals?
Klaw: Those complaints are fair criticisms; I’m referring to comments like “$31 million is insane!” (actual comment on my FB page) or “no one is worth that much money for playing a game” (I made that one up). It’s economic illiteracy. The owners are raking it in; revenues are rising faster than salaries. The players are the product and should be able to earn the marginal revenue product of their labor; there are players who are worth $40 million a year in added revenue, like Harper and Trout, but good luck convincing the average fan who didn’t even take economics in high school that a guy making $20 million a year is “underpaid.”

Jack: Is there anything to like in the Orioles farm system?
Klaw: It’s in poor shape. Sisco is a prospect, Hess and Scott are big leaguers, and you can always hope Harvey and/or Bundy gets healthy at some point.

Logan: Surprised by the Henderson Alvarez non-tender? He should have a pretty robust market, yeah?
Klaw: Depends on what the shoulder looks like. If it’s just ground beef in there, then no.

Jeremy: Javy Guerra or Jorge Mateo?
Klaw: Guerra.

Ian: What’s the scouting report on Kohl Stewart? Twins fans are calling him a bust because of the lack of strike outs. Does he have time to turn it around?
Klaw: Twins fans calling a 20-year-old a “bust” by scouting the stat line are not actually Twins fans.

Fred: What is it with Mets starters that their stuff seems to get better in the majors? Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard’s stuff have all been better in the majors than minors. Is it due to better instruction in the majors, elite athletes elevating their game as they reach a higher level or just a fluke thing?
Klaw: Their folks credit the pitching coach, Dan Warthen. Will be interesting to see what he can do with Matz (if healthy), where the stuff is pretty good already but the command isn’t.

Andrew: Does Carter’s release indicate that AJ Reed will be the everyday 1B by May 1 (assuming he hits in AAA in April)?
Klaw: I hope so, just because I think he’s close to ready and I hate seeing clubs hold players down for arbitration/service time reasons. It does a disservice to the game and the fans even though it is the right business move in many or most cases.

Kyle: Did you read the Bill James piece on the three man rotation? Seems crazy enough to work….but is there any team out there that would actually try it? And any agents that would let their pitchers take the mound for said team?
Klaw: No, but if this is three starters, none faces more than 18 batters idea, it’s been around for ~30 years. I also think something like that is inevitable given data that shows that pitchers are worse the fourth time through the order.

Rob: So is Wil Myers the new 1B in San Diego? Does he profile adequately as an everyday 1B? First division upside or not?
Klaw: I assume so – he was awful in the OF last year, and that’s a bad park for a below-average defensive outfielder anyway. I do think he can hit enough to play there if he’s healthy.

Ben: Do you see Greinke setting a new AAV record?
Klaw: I think it’s about even money on that. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him 5 and $160MM if I were a high-revenue contender.

Tyler: More likely in next CBA… A) Rosters expanded to 26-27 B) NL DH, C) International Draft D) None of those are happening
Klaw: Some form of C, which will take the current system, fix some of its flaws, and create new ones instead.

Jeremy: what do you think the Rangers should do with Profar? seems like they are locked into Odor/Andrus in the middle infield.
Klaw: Probably start him in AAA anyway to get him some at bats and some reps in the field. I believe these surpluses often work themselves out due to an injury or an unanticipated trade opportunity. No reason to force it now unless something comes to you. Maybe they’ll get a proposal next week for one of those three guys that makes too much sense to refuse.

Mike: What is Roughned Odor’s power ceiling?
Klaw: I could see a 20 HR season there. Hey, did you know that the Rangers signed his brother, who is also named Rougn*()_U#I@R##(strangling sounds)

Pat: The Rays held Desmond Jennings in AAA in 2011 until summer to avoid the super 2, and then he played so well that you could question whether bringing him up earlier would have made up the 1 game by which they missed the playoffs. Now he’s been underwhelming and getting expensive and it would be tragically ironic if they were to non-tender him after the 2016 season.
Klaw: One man’s tragic irony is another’s black comedy.

Jeremy: if salary weren’t an issue, would Aaron Judge be a better RF option than Beltran in April 2016?
Klaw: I thought that would become the case last summer/spring, but now I don’t. Judge would get eaten alive by MLB pitchers working him soft away right now.

Lewis: Do you consider the 2016 Draft good like 2011 or more of the same of the last few years?
Klaw: We may not see another 2011-level draft for many more years. That was an absolute delight to cover.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Klaw, thanks for recommendation on Carcassonne. I haven’t bought or played a board game in years, and my wife and I loved it. Since I’ve also enjoyed some of your other recommendations related to literature and cooking, do you have any book recommendations for expecting fathers?
Klaw: The Happiest Baby on the Block was our mainstay.

Jake: Greg Bird upside?
Klaw: Everyday DH. Low average, walks, 25 HR.

Thomas: Many seem to think opt-outs are bad deals for teams, but I don’t see it that way at all. The back end of contracts are always bad. Provide a door the player can step through to save you from the bad years. The Yankees should have done that with CC. Am I wrong here, and if not, do you see more teams using them strategically?
Klaw: I think they cut both ways, for the reason you cited. The argument that they’re always bad for the teams – a belief to which I used to subscribe, by the way – was that if the player performed well in Phase 1 of the contract, it indicated that he would continue to perform well in Phase 2. I don’t think that correlation is quite as strong as we once believed it was, especially for pitchers.

Jack: Isn’t Greg Bird’s upside technically sky-high?
Klaw: How sick?

Sam: Why in the world would the Diamondbacks say Cueto rejected their offer? Seems the only viable explanation is to let the fans know they are trying to spend money even if they eventually do not. Any way it comes off as bad form and since nobody else publicly releases rejected offers it seems petty.
Klaw: Yes, I believe that’s the reason, but in general, please don’t ask me why the current Diamondbacks regime does anything they do, because I sure as hell don’t understand it. This is the same club that sold Touki Toussaint to cover a budget shortfall caused by Yoan Lopez. I’d sooner explain magnets and the tides.

Jeremy: is JBJ the best defensive CF in the MLB?
Klaw: I was going to answer this question but Kevin Kiermaier just robbed it from the queue.

Jeremy: if Pedroia got hurt, is Betts or Holt a better replacement at 2B
Klaw: Betts.

Kirk: Do you think Miguel Sano has the ability to play right field every day?
Klaw: I’d try him in LF and Kepler in RF. I’d say 2 to 1 odds against Sano working out in the outfield, but well worth the try.

Scott: Should the A’s extend Reddick? I worry that he won’t be worth the amount he likely needs to stay put.
Klaw: I think they should shop or trade him.

Tom: Thanks, I’ve always thought it was funny that it’s common to hear “Hey, greedy (pro athletes) aren’t worth $20m a year” but no one ever complained when Tom Cruise/Jim Carrey, etc would rake in $20m per film. All of it’s entertainment, right?
Klaw: Yep, and indeed no one cares about celebrity salaries or musician incomes. If that player was your son, you’d want him to get every dollar he could.

Fred: Why is everyone forgetting about Wheeler with the Mets rotation? Correct me if I’m wrong, he still projects better than Matz? How is Wheeler not in the big four but Matz is?
Klaw: Because he had Tommy John surgery? I love Wheeler, but expecting him to step right back into the rotation and make 30 starts at his old level this year is a bit optimistic for me.

MFY: How did the Yankees miss on Anderson Espinoza? They spent so much that year and didn’t come up with the best prospect.
Klaw: Well 29 other teams missed too, right? Signing players in Latin America is about as difficult as it gets. You have to start when they’re 14 and often they already have (illegal) deals in place before their 15th birthdays.

Thomas: How could the O’s not sign Alvarez? Seems like he can walk right into Davis’ role.
Klaw: Well “walk” probably isn’t the ideal word there.

Matt: How much value, if any, would you ascribe the the notion of pitchers being “comfortable” with a certain catcher? I’ve been seeing a lot of criticism of the White Sox non-tender to Flowers based on the fact that Sale loves pitching to him, and I’m wondering if that’s something that should be considered in the FA process
Klaw: I think it’s a nice thing to have but not something I’d really pay for if the catcher didn’t have other tangible value, like framing or OBP or something. Otherwise it becomes unverifiable bullshit and I don’t pay for that.

Sooperjones: Can we get that Turkey and Soba Noodle Soup recipe?
Klaw: It wasn’t a recipe – lot of my dishes aren’t – I just made a very rich turkey stock, cooked it down enough that it barely set at room temperature and was a solid block of gel in the fridge, then heated it and added cooked soba noodles, leftover turkey, salt, chopped scallions, chopped celery leaves/hearts, and a splash of rice wine vinegar.

Michael: I’m trying to learn a foreign language. I believe you’ve been vocal against using Rosetta Stone. Before I spent hundreds on it, why?
Klaw: Because I don’t think their method teaches you the language at all. You learn some vocabulary and not in a way that increases retention. It’s very expensive for how little it delivers – but it feels like you’re doing something so people pay for it.

Ray: Will Brett Phillips hit for avg, power or both? Can he be a 15 HR-20 SB-.280-.350 hitter?
Klaw: Yeah, I buy that. Not huge power but he hits the ball hard and could peak at 20-22 HR.

Ryan E: Any thoughts on who the Phillies go for in the rule 5? Are any available outfielders interesting to you?
Klaw: The rule 5 draft is not interesting to me. There’s too little talent available. In a good year you get two guys who stick and do something. In most years you get one or none.

Scott: Is it just me, but have you noticed that people are much more defensive about their tastes in music, compared to movies, books, etc?
Klaw: Every year I do some best-of-the-year music posts, and every year at least one person shows up to insult me for my choices because I omitted some album/artist that person loves. Never fails. I don’t get it – these lists are inherently subjective and I claim nothing more for them than that they’re my opinions.

Joe: Baseball Prospectus has a lot of data on pitch framing, and basically it shows that the best pitch framing catchers get about an extra strike and a half per game. Long story short: do we seriously overrate pitch framing as analytics people?
Klaw: I think we do, and another major reason is that it doesn’t seem to correlate well from year to year. Wasn’t Rene Rivera supposed to be great at framing? Hank Conger? How’d those work out? Now we’re chasing exit velocity the way we chased framing a year or two years ago. The value in new statistics is learning their predictive value, not in arbitrarily deciding that this one or that one is valuable before we have proof.

Jeremy: does Henry Owens 2015 debut lower his ceiling for you? the changeup didnt seem to fit the 70 profile at the MLB level.
Klaw: Nope, it didn’t. And the deception wasn’t as effective as it was in the minors.

Billy: I’ve seen you mention that you have a few Celiac family members recently. My fiance was recently diagnosed and I was wondering what resource(s) you’re using to find recipes, suggestions for substitutions, etc.
Klaw: One gluten-free family member (non-celiac but medical reasons), one close friend who developed a severe wheat allergy after dying in childbirth. (She got better.) Bought KA Gluten-Free Flour blend and xanthan gum. I start with 1-for-1 substitutions in regular recipes (but not bread – you need gluten for real bread) and work from there.

DC: Comps for Josh Bell and Alan Hansen? Thanks
Klaw: I don’t do comps, sorry.

Thomas: Regarding Judge, is the slow away going to kill him permanently, or to-be-expected growing pains?
Klaw: To be expected but it’s a real hole he has to address now.

Jeremy: which of the 2016 draft prospects is most likely to crack your midseason top 25 prospects list?
Klaw: Right now I would guess none.

Josh: Back to the James Shields trade value q, I believe he can opt out if traded, which significantly lowers his value, because if he’s good, he will walk and if he gets worse then you are stuck. Worth more to the Padres than any other team I think.
Klaw: If he’s good, he walks, and you’re off the hook for what are likely to be worse years anyway. But yes, if he sucks, you’re screwed.

Jeremy: for a non-contending Phillies team, would you bring JP Crawford up in June/July 2016? or let him work in AAA until September?
Klaw: When he’s ready – when the at bats are good enough, when he’s no longer making some of the little mistakes that mar his game.

TodD: I read somewhere that many scouts believe this is the best draft class in 10~ years. Do you agree with that sentiment?
Klaw: I don’t think you read that anywhere because it couldn’t be further from the truth.

Jeremy: did you see anything in Seager in 2015 that would make you believe he could stick at SS for 3-4 years?
Klaw: I’d bet against it.

Kirk: So if Kepler in right and Sano in left, that leaves Rosario…where? (Assuming Buxton in center) trade chip? Super sub?
Klaw: Trade chip, most likely. Rosario’s not as good as the other guys and the makeup is not great either.

Michael: As someone who is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative (I can’t be the only one), I find that I basically have no political candidates to vote for. Would you make any changes to the election process in the U.S.? How do you vote? Do you prioritize certain issues over others?
Klaw: You’re far from the only one but there is no party that represents that set of views. I don’t talk much about specific candidates, but I can tell you this: I won’t vote for anyone who’s anti-science. If you don’t accept the reality of evolution, climate change, vaccination safety and effectiveness, and so on, you don’t get my vote. I don’t always vote for the same party, or for the same reasons, but I always vote science.

Vin: Since Crick looks destined to be a reliever, who’s the best pitching prospect in the Giants’ system?
Klaw: Don’t even think Crick is a reliever at this point. I’ll defer on the latter question till I do their rankings because the guy I have in mind would be something of a surprise.

Chris: You can add gerrymandering and a total misread of the 2nd Am as obstacles to reform, Keith.
Klaw: Gerrymandering is something of an anti-science (or anti-math or anti-technology) thing on top of mere self-preservation – exhibited by all parties and ideologies, by the way. Not a huge issue in my state, though, with a single Representative.

Frustrated Cubs Fan: Thoughts on Theo basically twiddling his thumbs when it comes to acquiring SPs?
Klaw: I think you should take a Xanax.

Jeremy: How does Santa act in your house? Reward the nice and punish the naughty? Or give gifts out of unconditional love?
Klaw: We have one child and overall she’s quite well-behaved so it’s not a huge issue. We do wield that hammer, though – behave or Santa will see – but in reality she’s going to get a ton of presents even if we chose to skimp.

RC in the 41Six: JA Happ to the Jays for $12 million? Better shore up the bullpen but I don’t see how losing Hendriks helps this cause. Are good relievers simply much easier to find than #3 or #4 starters and is this the way you would have rebuilt the post Price Jays?
Klaw: Didn’t like that deal or the Estrada one. BTW, I’ll predict here that Atkins gets the GM job, and while I’ve known Ross for years and like him as a person and as a baseball mind, that would be just another preordained handpicked GM “search” that should add to MLB’s list when examining obstacles to minority advancement.

Tom: Since LAA traded their one good prospect to shore up SS, what’s their best course of action to address the black holes in LF, 3B, and 2B?
Klaw: It’s money or nothing (well, or finding someone on the scrap heap, which isn’t a crazy idea, just not guaranteed).

robb: The problem with the athletes-entertainers comparison over salaries is that, if you don’t want to go see a Cruise movie, you can go see one with Hanks in it. If you get upset at the contracts the team you’ve followed all your life hands out, you don’t start following another team. That said, I don’t get why people complain about it at all. It’s not our money.
Klaw: And people who complain about that one contract – oh, I can’t believe they gave Estrada that deal – aren’t my target here. It’s the Blue Jays fan who gets mad at what Price and Greinke and Heyward make just because it sounds like a lot of money. It isn’t in the context of industry revenues.

Taylor: Pedro Alvarez is very limited but the power is… something. What would you do with a player like that and who do you think should pick him up?
Klaw: IMO always a place on the roster for a player with a huge tool like Pedro’s power. Just have to use him judiciously and be willing to accept the failure that comes with it. He’s not a zero or replacement-level; he’s a part-time asset. BTW, tough week for that 2008 draft’s college first basemen: Alvarez non-tendered, Smoak signs a small one-year deal to avoid non-tender, Alonso traded because he was about to be non-tendered and goes to a club to replace Ike Davis. The other college 1b taken in the first round are all essentially done – Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Allan Dykstra. Yikes.

Michael: Boston talk radio has already started with the Price-sucks-in-big-games narrative. Funny or sad?
Klaw: A sad commentary on our country’s innumeracy.

Jimbo: You mentioned somewhere (twitter?) recently that you’ve cured and smoked your own bacon before. How did you do the cure? Did you use nitrates or nitrites?
Klaw: Pink salt (sodium chloride plus sodium nitrite). Otherwise your bacon will come out grey and taste very porky, plus you’re slightly increasing the risk of some bacterial growth. Ruhlman’s Twenty has a cure recipe that I use as my base.

J: Love it that Adele has sold 4m copies of her new record. It shows that people are still willing to pay for music
Klaw: Agreed. I bought Grimes’ new album. I will say that the industry-wide jump from 99 cents a track to $1.29 a track did impact my purchasing – I didn’t expect to react that way but ended up a Spotify premium member instead of continuing to buy lots of singles.

Corey: With all their young MLB players, long term contracts + minors talent close or on the way, Boston doesn’t really have any holes to fill for a few years (Sam Travis at 1B, Hanley to DH) How would you manage the farm system and MLB roster if you were GM given there’s no place to put a lot of these guys?
Klaw: They become trade assets for now or July or maybe next winter. Marrero, Cecchini, Barnes, Owens, Shaw … they’re all useful parts of larger deals, or maybe pieces to get good relief options who are younger than free agents and maybe don’t have the mileage of a Darren O’Day.

Thomas: Have we flipped too far towards youth and prospects? Will “older” players become the new market inefficiency eventually?
Klaw: I hope so or else I have no shot at getting that one at bat to get me a page on Baseball-Reference. That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much for reading. I’ll be in Nashville for the winter meetings next week and may delay the chat till Friday around my travel, but I’ll be writing, tweeting, posting on my Facebook page, and perhaps doing a Periscope if I can find a good spot and strong enough wifi connection.

Klaw: You gotta go for what you know. Klawchat.

Ryan: What makes you such a believer in Javier Guerra’s power? There have been lots of prospects that hit for power in Greenville, then have it never show up again. Plus he has a distinct lack of power in batting practice, and all his home runs were hit right down the line.
Klaw: I’m not sure what other prospects you meant, or if any of them were 19. I see power in the swing, and he hit for just as much power on the road as he did at home. Home runs down the line are still home runs, last I checked.

Colin: Kapler or Roberts?
Klaw: I don’t know who’ll get it, and knowing nothing of Roberts as a candidate I can’t express a preference either.

SPC: Do you think what Matt Duffy did is sustainable? Improve?
Klaw: I can’t forecast any improvement given how much better he was in the majors than in the minors.

Matt: Are advisers necessary for college players in draft process?
Klaw: Hell yeah. Otherwise negotiating against the team(s) would be like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

Adam: How long before Ozzie Albies is ready?
Klaw: Two years.

Michael: What teams have the prospects necessary to land Jose Fernandez if he is traded? Cubs? Red Sox? Astros? Dodgers? Wouldn’t this have been a better use of Margot and Guerra(and Allen and Asuaje) than trading for Kimbrel? Fernandez seems like the perfect Dombrowski target.
Klaw: Yes, if that package would have landed Fernandez, it’s obviously a better use of the resources – but I would guess the Marlins would aim even higher, asking for Moncada for example. Don’t see the Dodgers doing it. Cubs, Red Sox, Astros all could. Braves could but wouldn’t. Rangers absolutely could. Angels absolutely could not.

Chris: Kolby Allard with a 2nd back surgery already, how concern should Braves be?
Klaw: I think that’s his first. March injury was a stress reaction. Not a concern.

Jeremy: what’s the optimal use of Swihart/Vasquez (once healthy). a trade? or having Swihart split time at DH/1B?
Klaw: I think it’s a waste of value to let Swihart play somewhere other than C, so I’d think about a trade at some point. Swihart has superstar potential, but perhaps a bit more risk (volatility in potential outcomes).

Matt: Price, Greinke, Cueto, Zimmerman. Your gut, who ends up where?
Klaw: I really don’t speculate on that stuff, sorry.

Jeremy: can you give your hypothetical 10-man HOF ballot? and full ballot if there were no restrictions?
Klaw: Raines, Bagwell, Piazza, Griffey, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Trammell, Edgar. I could add one or two names beyond that, such as Walker, but I don’t feel like anyone HAS to be on there who isn’t.

Luis: Do you think it’s crazy that Hoffman and Wagner are getting HoF consideration? Really their only argument lies in the worst stat in baseball. Besides the fact that relievers don’t pitch enough, I find it baffling that pitchers who weren’t even good enough to crack the starting rotation could get Hall votes. We don’t have to acknowledge every role in Cooperstown with a plaque. We don’t put bench players, pinch-hitters, or pinch-runners in the Hall of Fame, and for good reason. I would argue that pitching so seldom sets the bar extremely, extremlely high to merit induction, and the only full-time reliever to have ever reached that mark is Mariano Rivera.
Klaw: It redefines what the Hall of Fame is about – or, I guess, it continues the redefinition that came with the insane induction of Bruce Freaking Sutter, who barely cleared 1000 innings pitched. Rivera is a yes for me, and that’s it for modern relievers.

Gary: I saw your write up on the AFL and your mention that Rowdy Tellez has trouble with fastballs. Yet, he still seemed to swing it well down there. Do you mean he will be able to hit some of the average heaters he will see in the minors, but will be overmatched by the better stuff in the majors?
Klaw: I’m assuming you’re scouting the stat line. He was behind better fastballs all week when I was there, just as he was in high school. It’s a slow bat.

richard: Does someone claim Becerra if the Mets expose him in the Rule 5? I think yes.
Klaw: I think yes and he gets returned. Can’t carry that guy all year. The rule 5 rules are kind of a mess – they expose Latin American kids to the draft too soon, but absolutely screw college draft picks with the extra year before they can be taken in the rule 5 (extra vs the old system, I mean).

Fitz: Is there any hope for Drew Hutchison? He had a pretty strong 2014 and completely fell off the map in 2015. That adjustment he made to his slider in the 2nd half of 2014 somehow disappeared this season.
Klaw: You answered it the way I would. If they find that missing slider – perhaps it was lost at customs? – then he can be that same guy again. Otherwise I think he’s a reliever.

Oilcan23: I understand that you think the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrell, and I really do understand why. That said, does it matter that the pieces the Red Sox gave up probably wouldn’t have played a Fenway over the next three years (maybe Margot makes it)? Do you place any credence in the idea that the Red Sox are a win-now franchise that can’t wait for players like Margot to develop when they have pressing needs today? I can’t speak for all Red Sox fans, but I can’t imagine “trust the process” going over all that well in Boston.
Klaw: No, it doesn’t matter, because the value of those assets they dealt is independent of whether they’re blocked in Fenway. If you insist on trading Margot, then get a fair return for him. They didn’t.

Bill G.: Keith, thanks for doing these chats. If you were starting a team, who would you want long term, Lindor or Corey Seager. Thanks.
Klaw: Seager. Nothing against Lindor, though.

Brandon: Who is most likely to get a shot in Houston first… Tyler White or AJ Reed? Reed looks like the better long-term bet to be good, but White has hit EVERYWHERE. Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: I think they give White a shot first because he’s a lesser prospect and they’ll be more concerned about manipulating Reed’s service time than White’s.

Jay: What are your thoughts on the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF?
Klaw: Certainly makes them a much better team. I believe Harper can play CF. At that point I’d look to trade Taylor, though.

Devin: Hey Keith, I’ve read a few reputable scouting reports on Jorge Lopez and they are saying he could be a solid #2 or #3 starter in the mlb. Do you share the same opinion? If so, what about him makes him a front/midldle of the rotation type of guy?
Klaw: A two seems a bit optimistic given his stuff, but he can really pitch. I see a three, mid-rotation type with a lot of above-average weapons but nothing that’s an absolute out pitch, and good feel and control. Good pick in the second round – projectable HS arm who came along “slowly” relative to what we demand out of prospects these days but actually advanced at a perfectly reasonable pace.

Tom: Is there any chance that during the CBA negotiations that the union tries to upgrade pay for minor leaguers as part of a proposal to raise the percentage of revenue spent on players? Or, is this a non starter since the union only represents the players already in the majors?
Klaw: Union has zero incentive to do this.

Buck: Mallex Smith, Roman Quinn, Socrates Brito – who’s more likely to become a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter for his team?
Klaw: Probably Smith. Not wild about any of them.

Joe: I saw on Twitter that the White Sox are willing to trade Avisail Garcia. Is that actually news? Aren’t most teams always willing to trade fringe major leaguers who are running low on options?
Klaw: Yes, although maybe it’s news in the sense that he was kind of hyped by his clubs (Detroit and Chicago) a few years back.

Steve: Would Papi get your HOF vote?
Klaw: No. Adjusted for era and position, it’s not a Hall of Fame offensive career.

Dave: I’m about 3/4 through reading “Crime and Punishment”, and I’m surprised by how witty and funny it is. I was expecting a dreary slog, but it’s been delightful (and exciting in places). Is there a book you’ve read out of a feeling of obligation (“I should really read that,”) that especially surprised you?
Klaw: Middlemarch and Tess of the d’Urbervilles. The latter was assigned to me in high school and I watched the movie instead. I read it when I was 33 and was blown away by the prose and the use of irony.

Kevin: Do you expect Beede or Blackburn to be called up to the show in 2016?
Klaw: Blackburn yes, Beede no.

Fonz: If baseball did not exist, do you think your career today would be in writing?
Klaw: I think now that it’s what I was always meant to do, but it’s not the career I originally chose for myself, largely because I was trying to meet others’ expectations for me.

Michael: There seem to be two approaches related to the fragility of pitchers: draft a ton of them and play the numbers OR value position players and hope to find pitchers to plug in. Do you prefer either approach?
Klaw: I’d be disinclined to go heavy on pitching early in the draft; there are always exceptions, but I’d lean hitter up top and look for projectable HS arms after the first or the top two rounds.

Fonz: Now that he’s improved contact, do you foresee Bogaerts starting to pull / drive the ball more, or has he transformed into a slap-the-ball-to-the-opposite field guy?
Klaw: I think the power’s still there, but as you said, he had to work on improving his contact first to get to that power.

Jay: Did you factor in the cost of draft pick forfeiture in the free agent rankings? Seems like that would sway the choice towards Price over Greinke if they were close to a coin flip to start.
Klaw: No, and I didn’t factor in any estimate of cost. It was strictly about on-field value.

Matt: Nothing says Thanksgiving like the xenophobia running rampant in this country. When this topic comes up at the dinner table, and it will, how do I keep my composure?
Klaw: Don’t – just serve kebab halabi made with turkey, some labneh, maybe some falafel…

Ken: assuming McCann is not blocking him, is Sanchez ready to catch full time or still need work defensively? If so, is he the back up this year?
Klaw: Still think he needs work defensively.

Derek Harvey: Do you think Trevor Bauer has room to improve or is back-end starter his likely role/caliber from now on.
Klaw: If he ever finds more control, he could have a huge breakout year. I have no sense of when or how that might occur, though. Remember when some folks argued he had to be the first pick over Gerrit Cole in 2011, based just on the stats? That was fun.

Archie: Is Herrera the starting 2B for the Mets next year? What could be expected from him?
Klaw: I think he could be, although this dalliance with Zobrist could affect those plans.

Zirinsky: What are you making for Thanksgiving dinner (assuming you’re cooking)?
Klaw: I am. I’m going to spatchcock the turkey (NSFW), and sides will include stuffing (at least one, maybe a second with gluten-free cornbread as we will have two guests who can’t eat wheat), a warm potato salad, roasted brussels sprouts, a beet dish, possibly a kale Caesar with duck confit (if I can get the duck legs), the dish-that-must-not-be-named (initials are g.b.c.), and at least one more vegetable side. Desserts will be pumpkin pie, probably apple pie, and a GF chocolate tart with an oat-nut crust.

Thomas: Do you see JD Davis a a future big league regular? If not, is it his bat or seeming lack of a position that would hold him back?
Klaw: Below. Little of both.

Diana G: I agree with the Kimbrel comments, but if he saves four WS games does the end justify the means?
Klaw: Not for me. For the Red Sox, perhaps.

Anonymous: Lance McCullers, you’ve said before you see him as a RP. Did he do anything this year to convince you he can stick in the rotation? Do you believe in the changeup?
Klaw: Three pitches are all there. Long arm action is tough to repeat and explains the below-average command.

ds: Music question – Have you listened to Wolf Alice before, your thoughts?
Klaw: Really liked it. Top ten album of the year for me.

Diana G: Any way to identify who may be a late blooming outlier like Arieta, Bautista, etc? Is it as simple as better coaching?
Klaw: Change of scenery, adding a pitch, tweaking a delivery or a swing, getting healthy, growing up … I try to tab some breakout guys every year, but those two you named were so completely out of nowhere that I didn’t see either one coming, and didn’t buy into Bautista for a while even after he was clearly a star.

Larry: Are you concerned with your cholesteral level? You seem to eat a lot of high-cholesteral foods, at least according to your Instragram
Klaw: My cholesterol is consistently in the 160-170 range, because genes play a big part in it. Also, I’m not a huge fan of food-scolds … it’s my body, I’ll eat whatever the hell I want to eat, and if it doesn’t affect you it’s not your business.

Corey: Darren O’Day looking for 4/$28m – 36 Soria too. With the trend to power pens, is either guy worth that sort of investment ?
Klaw: Neither, but Soria in particular seems nuts – he was borderline replacement level last year and his stuff is down. Teams have to see that, even with the Proven Closer tag.

Matt: I’m trying to eat healthier. What are some good vegetables to roast?
Klaw: Anything that isn’t leafy roasts well. I love to roast broccoli and cauliflower at 450, lightly oiled and salted, till brown and caramelized.

Eric: Maybe you can explain what the Braves are doing? I get “rebuilding” but trading players like Wood and Simmons seems a little odd for a rebuilding club. They were controlled for another 5 seasons.
Klaw: The Wood trade was about Olivera, whom I think Atlanta completely overrates. Simmons was about getting those two arms back (Newcomb and Ellis), and I think an underestimation of Simmons’ future offense. You named my two least favorite moves of their last twelve months.

Corey: Frazier’s rough 2nd half a red flag or a worthwhile trade target for higher end prospects ?
Klaw: I think it’s more fair to say that his huge first half was a fluke and not representative of a new true talent level. Still a good player and worth flipping a couple of prospects for.

Marco: I have read, and also believe, that Greinke will age really well because of the way he pitches, which can withstand declining stuff. Do you see Price the same way? He has 4 solid pitches….will he be able to work off of declining velocity over the next few seasons?
Klaw: I think Price has the intellect and the control to be highly effective even when his velocity drops, but it will require a greater adjustment for him than it will for Greinke.

Silv: Honest question: explain to me how Rich Hill, after a few months of the absolute definition of small sample size and totally inconsistent with his career numbers, gets 6MM guaranteed and David Carpenter, who was anywhere from pretty damned good to mediocre for the past three full seasons, is DFA’ed?
Klaw: Fair question. But if you watched those few starts, he did look like a completely different pitcher, and pitchers are more subject to those wild swings in value that Diana G asked about earlier than hitters are. I thought it was a good signing.

Master Pau: Does Eddy Martinez have star potential my friends think he is going to be a bust given he only signed for 3 million. Saying if he was a better prospect he would go for 10+ Million
Klaw: Something weird happened behind the scenes; I thought he had a $10 million deal with a specific club, yet it never came to fruition. He’s a potential star for me.

Craig: Does Javier Bentancourt project enough power to at least become a doubles guy or is he always going to project as a slap hitter?
Klaw: Line drive guy. Doubles but not homers. Can really play the heck out of 2b. Need to see who the two PTBNLs in the deal are to have a decent opinion on it though.

Larry: Brad Zimmer or Frazier?
Klaw: Zimmer.

Jake: Keith, I know you generally don’t like to use subjective measures in your evaluations, but don’t you think someone like Ortiz deserves some modicum of consideration based on matter that might be more subjective? I mean, isn’t the fact that it would be impossible to write the history of baseball from 2000-2015 without mention of Ortiz’s accomplishments, especially in the postseason?
Klaw: I assume the Hall (I haven’t been in decades) has exhibits on the various postseasons. Celebrate him there.

Steve: How do you expect Zobrist to age over a 4 year deal?
Klaw: Like a fine wine … that has been exposed to the wrong bacteria.

DodgerFan101: Do you think Pederson and DeLeon would be enough to land Shelby Miller?
Klaw: I don’t. I think it’s a good offer, though.

Ryan: At what age can I start reading to my daughter that would actually benefit her?
Klaw: I’ve been reading to my daughter since she was two. Back then I think she just liked having me in the bed with her before she went to sleep. Now of course she’s locked into the stories.

Archie: Are the Reds stretching out Finnegan to start? If not, would he make sense to close w/Chapman presumably being traded?
Klaw: He has to be a closer. Can’t start IMO.

James: Matt – your answer should be – Thank God we killed hundreds of thousands of Indians and Mexicans before the Internet.
Klaw: And then serve the popcorn course.

Corey: Benintendi ready by 2017, fast-tracked like Conforto ? And where would they put him – CF and move Betts to RF ?
Klaw: I’d treat him like the Cubs treated Schwarber. Leave him in CF, move him later when it becomes necessary. Might just end up trade bait, but he’s worth more as a proven CF in the minors.

Addoeh: Mmm, G.B.C.!
Klaw: No. Too much bread, and not even good bread, relative to everything else.

Fitz: Do you think Tony LaCava becomes GM long-term, or does Shapiro bring in someone external?
Klaw: I think they should keep him, but it sounds like they won’t. I saw a Josh Byrnes rumor this morning, which doesn’t make sense to me; I don’t see what he brings that Lacava doesn’t already provide, and Byrnes has had two poor experiences as GM already.

Jon: Keith, you talked in your Periscope chat yesterday about how it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. A friend of mine has suggested I game with you (I live in Lancaster) but it feels the same way to me, a little fanboyish maybe. Am I wrong?
Klaw: Not at all. I’ve played games with a couple of readers over the years. Also, I own the game Lancaster and haven’t played it. So let’s make that happen. I need some folks to help me test all these games to review!

Chris: I get the idea of listening on everyone, but not sure I understand trading Miller. Very reasonable contract, and I thought at the deadline last yr the Yanks were trying to ADD another top reliever a la KC
Klaw: Unless they think something’s wrong with him. Then I could understand it.

John: Freeman shouldn’t be off limits, right? Need to go full rebuild (given return value, of course)
Klaw: Right. In for a penny, in for a pound.

Adam Trask: What’s your Rx for getting more African-Americans into baseball?
Klaw: No easy answer to that. Have to make the game more accessible at the youth level, because kids who play it will be fans of it. But attending MLB games is prohibitively expensive for a wide swath of the population (of all races, of course), and that is going to lose a lot of fans to more affordable alternatives.

RBI, Wins, & Saves: Ah, HOF time, when the rest of the baseball world aside from you, Klaw, bows and worships at our feet! Did you see our new favorite HOF voter who included Smith, Hoffman, AND Wagner on his ballot? Now if we can only get Tommy John and Jim Kaat in through the Veterans Committee…
Klaw: I thought I was rid of you three when we left ESPN’s chat module.

Marco: Is it better to have a plus changeup or a plus breaking ball?
Klaw: Neither. It’s just good to have a plus offspeed pitch.

Alex: How do you split the oven time between the turkey and side dishes on Thanksgiving, without either getting cold?
Klaw: Turkey comes out, gets covered to keep the heat in, get the sides right in the oven. By the time the sides come out 30-40 minutes later the turkey is still hot and ready to slice. Also, I will serve a couple of room temp sides – the Caesar, the beet dish I have planned, the potato salad (served with a warm bacon-mustard dressing).

Addoeh: Never been to Cooperstown. Worth going once?
Klaw: The problem is it is located 80 miles from East Nowhere.

Jon: Keith, you mentioned yesterday about how you felt it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. Why do you think it would be different for you to invite readers to play?
Klaw: I am friendly with a bunch of players and was being somewhat facetious about that – I specifically said it would be creepy to be hanging out in the clubhouse playing a boardgame with them, mostly because I feel like the clubhouse is their place and I’m intruding.

Ron: Klaw, you seem to have a good sense of humor, but also some very progressive sensibilities. Which makes me curious how you feel about some of the “edgy” comics of today that are so successful – Amy Schumer, Louis CK, et. al. who are considered these comic geniuses, but also joke about language and topics that I would presume you do not have a sense of humor about.
Klaw: I know you’ve asked this before but I don’t have a great answer because I don’t know what material you mean. I have heard some of Louis C.K.’s stuff that was hilarious, and then I read about the allegations of harassment (Defamer had them earlier this year) and couldn’t call myself a fan any more.

Tom: Is Ahmed the best SS in the NL, now that Simmons is gone? If not, who is?
Klaw: Defensively? Probably Crawford. Speaking of whom, that contract he got seems to price in a little more power than I think you can reasonably expect from him going forward.

Jonny: How do you evaluate a guy like Ian Desmond? Do you write off the first half of 2015 as an aberration, and assume he’s one of the best SS in the game? Or do you assume he’s on a quick downward slide?
Klaw: Almost certainly better than he was in 2015, but I’d price him at some discount from the player I thought he was coming out of 2014. How much of a discount, I’m not sure. That’s a better question for an MLB analytics department.

Jay: Can you include overall (and optionally on the tools as well) grades with the prospect rankings? That would be a better reflection of value of the prospect than a relative ranking for a particular point in time which is dependent on the strength/weakness of other prospects.
Klaw: I won’t do that. I think they get misused and misinterpreted, and if I’m writing a couple of hundred words on each player I’d rather you read those than focus on a two-digit number.

John C: Most liberal scribe – you or Rob Neyer?
Klaw: I don’t know Rob’s politics. People who call me “liberal” are off base unless they mean the term in the classical sense, which today is somewhere closer to libertarian and combines ideas that are found on both sides of the center, from lower or less invasive taxation to social justice and equality.

Josh: Do you see Brandon Mauer being able to transition back into the rotation, or should the Pads keep him in the pen?
Klaw: Two pitch guy equals pen for me.

Bob: Thanks for the heads-up on the Ruhlman 20 special on Kindle… salting meat and eggs well ahead of time has already yielded some great results. Tried the short ribs… any suggestions on the next recipe to try in the book?
Klaw: Any of the duck recipes, especially the braised legs.

Paul Furlong: Then you are not eating Chicago Pizza!!!! Chicago pizza is like a pie crust. Not bread. Cheese and crust
Klaw: Pizza crust is bread. It’s yeast, water, flour, salt. That’s bread.

Archie: I know he’s still a few years away, but what do you think the Cubs do with Gleyber Torres? Trade bait?
Klaw: Two years out from that point, I think. Potential superstar whom I’d be loath to trade now for fear that I’d be selling too low, because he’s more potential than anything at this point. He’s wildly advanced for his age.

Anthony: Any thoughts on the Rangers/Mariners trade? I know it was minor, but Wilhelmsen is a nice add to a young, hard throwing bullpen. Possibly allows them to trade their “proven closer” for another piece or two.
Klaw: I’m also not much of a Martin fan – great defender who can’t hit. And I heard the PTBNL Texas is receiving is someone of value too.

Tom: You mentioned below that attending an MLB game is prohibitively expensive. I’ve always heard that ticket prices are not related to player salaries. So what drives it? Simply that MLB (and other pro sports) have found enough people to pay what they’re charging?
Klaw: Exactly (the latter). MLB teams are quasi-monopolists and set prices to maximize revenues. They don’t need the hoi polloi to attend games unless those folks are going to buy a lot of beer and food.

Brian: Could Swihart be the centerpiece of a trade for Jose Fernandez?
Klaw: In theory, yes. He’s good enough to be the centerpiece. Whether the Marlins would want him as such is something I don’t know.

alex: You mentioned that you saw Trey Mancini as a AAAA guy– what are the things that are holding him back– walk rate, etc? thanks
Klaw: Bad swing and lack of athleticism.

TJ: Had the conversation at work- what was your favorite Thanksgiving dish when you were a kid? Mine was the stuffing my mom made- loved it so much she had to make an extra side of it to keep me from devouring the turkey like a jackal…
Klaw: I’m Italian so Thanksgiving in my house always started with a pasta dish, usually baked ziti, which at the time I loved. I really don’t eat that kind of food any more, though.

James: Teheran and Newcomb to LA for Seager, who hangs up?
Klaw: Dodgers. They’re not trading him unless it’s for someone like Trout.

Oren: Will Gregory Polanco ever hit lefties?
Klaw: Yeah, i think he’s got tons of improvement ahead of him. That’s one guy I am not worried about (yet, I can always start worrying later).

Alex: Who will the Braves deal next? Do you think Jenkins, Sims, and Newcomb will play for Atlanta at some point this
Klaw: Sims and Jenkins might. Newcomb isn’t close to MLB ready yet. He’s not a sure thing IMO, although I know Atlanta loves him. Command isn’t there yet and it’s not something that they might fix with a delivery tweak.

Brandon: Assuming Boston needs pitching, what do you believe would have been fair return for Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, Allen? Short term control, 200-IP SP (i.e. Shelby Miller)? Mid-tier SP on undervalued contract (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana)? All-star, non-arb eligible SP (i.e. Sonny Gray)?
Klaw: If I were Atlanta I would have jumped at that offer for Miller. Two potential impact everyday guys, a likely UT who might hit his way into regular status at 2b, and a quality 18-yo arm. Seems like a great return.

Roke: Have you played Twilight Struggle? I would think it would be right up your alley.
Klaw: No – I’m not really into games that typically take two hours or more.

Kay: Crazy for thinking Conforto will be more valuable than Schwarber, despite less power? He takes excellent at bats, have decent pop, and actually has a position. Schwarber has DH written all over him
Klaw: I think Schwarber is a LF in the long run, but Conforto will be a better defender and I’ll bet on him to have higher OBPs, whereas Schwarber will hit more homers. Not a crazy thought but I think it’s close.

michael: hi keith – saw ur comment re: power that you’re not sure we’ll be repeatable being priced into crawford’s sf contract. based upon that, do you think it’s a slight overpay or a massive overpay at $15M per FA season. The $5M and $8M salaries seemed in line with MLBTR’s arbitration estimates.
Klaw: Slight overpay. Defense should make the in years good value. Out years are what concern me.

Matt: International scouting – if a team like the Cubs or Dodgers goes big and then is out for 2 years, will they trim down the amount of international scouting staff they have? Or continue to deploy those same folks just to gather info for potential trades in the future since somebody is signing these guys?
Klaw: No because you scout guys down there starting at age 14 now. It’s the most incompetently designed system I can imagine.

Chris: Thoughts on Jon Gant and Rob Whalen? They seem like (at the least) useful relievers, which is a nice get for half-seasons of Uribe and Johnson.
Klaw: Yep, that’s about right.

JT: You mentioned Italian thanksgiving below. Ever had a pizelle? It’s a cookie my grandma makes dozens of every holiday season.
Klaw: Yes, I have. Never made them because you need a specialized iron for them and I don’t need more gadgets.

Jon: So assuming I start to feel OK about the whole idea of gaming with you, what’s the best way to contact you if I am not a social media user?
Klaw: Leave a comment anywhere on the dish with your email address. I’ll send you through the government’s vetting system and you’ll hear from me in 18 to 24 months.

Ray: Cody Bellinger – is he an org guy, every day regular, or future all star? 20+ HR power in that bat?
Klaw: i don’t think he’s a regular, or maybe I should say I didn’t, as even adjusting for league and park that’s a nice season for a 19-year-old in high-A. I believe he’s going to end up a full-time 1B, and he has to hit a lot more to be a regular there.

Jeff: Klaw, thanks for answering my question on Twitter re: whether or not you care if a HoF candidate has failed a drug test. Could you briefly expand on your answer, as far as how that information affects your ultimate conclusion? Do you treat players differently if one failed the “anonymous” testing and got outed, as opposed to someone who failed after the new drug policies were implemented?
Klaw: I think what I said was that I don’t care about PED usage in general. I treat all unfounded accusations as bullshit. A failed test is the one thing I might consider because it is within baseball – Bonds’ grand jury testimony was outside of the game’s jurisprudence and should never have become public anyway under federal (?) law, so I think it’s improper to consider it on two separate grounds. Palmeiro flunking a test is hard evidence, and for a player where I might be on the fence about voting for him, I’d consider it. But if a player never flunked a test, rumors and speculations are best flushed down the toilet.

Chris: Reasonable return for Aybar for Braves? Feel like they gotta flip him.
Klaw: He makes no sense for them and he isn’t even very good. One mid-tier prospect would be enough.

Kay: Why have teams moved away from using platoons? If you lack a star caliber player, I feel like you can combine a pair of useful guys into star level production by hiding their weaknesses.
Klaw: Having 12 pitchers on the roster means 13 hitters. In the AL, that’s four bench six spots, and one goes to the backup catcher, while another has to go to someone who can play short. Not much room for platoons. I agree with you that they’re really useful, but I’d also limit the bullpen to six guys and ensure that I had at least one long reliever at all times.

Rob: If the Yankees intent is to keep Sanchez, wouldn’t it make sense to begin giving him some reps at 1B to turn him into more of a Victor Martinez-type player, when he was younger. 50 games at catcher, 40 games at 1B (against lefties to sit Bird) 60 games at DH?.
Klaw: I agree and perhaps they’ll do that now, but I have a feeling that all of the hype now about him being better behind the plate – he was never as bad as reputed, and now he’s not as good as they claim – is an attempt to boost his trade value. He can hit and has power, and it’s a plus arm, but long-term he might not be a catcher at all.

Brad: Isan Diaz have huge upside with the bat?
Klaw: Huge upside? No.

Kyle: How does JBJ’s trade value compare to the returns for Martin and Hicks? Bit higher?
Klaw: More than Martin for sure. Maybe comparable to Hicks – Hicks has better tools overall, JBJ has a shorter period of big-league performance.

Chris Plouffe: Can Max Fried become an above average starter in your opinion, or is he headed to the pen?
Klaw: He’s been hurt for over a year with TJ. Let’s get him back on a mound first.

Jeff: Do you think a Jay Bruce for Zack Wheeler trade is equitable? I know it was discussed at the deadline and ended up not happening. But it could realistically come up again, once Cespedes leaves.
Klaw: If Wheeler is presumed healthy, that’s an inferior deal for the Mets’ side.

Fred: I know he gets a lot of hate for his defense, but what have you thought of Wilmer’s hitting so far in his MLB career? 20 HR 100 RBI guy?
Klaw: I think he’s going to hit – his OBPs are terrible to date, but he’s young, makes contact, has a good swing, and should eventually hit for enough average that his OBPs will end up respectable if never actually good. Not a shortstop, of course.

Tim: Atlanta still have Kevin Maitan lined up?
Klaw: I have answered this many times already. They have an agreement with him, but as it’s totally prohibited by MLB, if either side chooses to break it there’s no recourse. A player who signed a seven-figure deal this past July 2nd reneged on an agreement the day before and signed with another team that offered more money; there’s nothing the original team could do because their deal with the player wasn’t legal to begin with!

JD: Joe Musgrove seemed to move up some prospect rankings this year. I saw him last year in the NYP and he didn’t stand out. Has something changed? Did you see him last season?
Klaw: I think he moved up for people looking at the stat line. Control guy who got healthy but doesn’t have premium stuff.

Adam: You mentioned earlier that the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF makes them much better…….wouldnt Heyward be the better CF of the two?
Klaw: I think Harper would be, actually. Better runner. Both have great instincts.

Fred: I read such mixed scouting reports on Amed Rosario’s power potential. Some say its gap power, some say its HR power. What have you seen?
Klaw: HR power. He’s still just a baby. Lot of people will tell you Dom Smith doesn’t have HR power either. They are mistaken.

JWP: Would Dylan Bundy even make your top 100 now?
Klaw: Probably not, which is a damn shame. I said yesterday on the periscope that I wonder if he was just overworked so much in HS that he was going to break down no matter what.

Bob Pollard: What do you make of Jon Gray at this point? Can he succced in Colorado?
Klaw: I don’t like his stuff and lack of deception in that environment.

Max Footroom: How did everyone miss so big on Jesus Montero’s bat? It was supposed to be MLB ready years ago. I remember the hype when he was traded to Seattle and people were saying he was the perfect DH who will hit MLB pitching immediate and have 30+HR power. How did the evaluators en mass miss this one?
Klaw: Good question. I don’t see a single smoking gun here: He didn’t work hard at all, he didn’t stay in shape, he did eventually get nailed for PED usage. I got destroyed by Yankee fans one year for ranking him too low, then conceded that I was likely wrong and ended up ranking him too high the next year. BTW, he’s still just 26 this year and I think he carves out a career for himself.

Ray: Is Margot more of a gap power hitter than a HR hitter. How will his power play in SD?
Klaw: Yes, and I don’t think he gets to 15 HR a year as a Padre.

Adam: Wouldnt the Braves best bet be to unload Maybin now so you can play Bourn and Swish? Hope they have good first halves so you can unload them……even if you dont get anything back thats money off the payroll?
Klaw: I think the ship has sailed on both of those guys, unfortunately. They’re probably just dead money, especially Brohio there.

Jeremy: Would head coaching experience at the college level (at one of the major conference schools) be enough for you to hire someone as a major league manager, or is the job too different? Why don’t we see more college coaches making that kind of jump?
Klaw: The job is extremely different but I’d still count it as something. The games themselves are quite different as you’re not managing every day, rosters are different, bats are different, and of course they’re not professionals. But it’s still fundamentally the same sport.

Kingpin: No question, just want to say thanks again for continuing the chats in this format and here’s hoping the best Thanksgiving for you & your loved ones.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and thank you for the kind wishes. A very safe and Happy Thanksgiving to all of you as well; please eat to excess and, if you drink to excess too, stay off the roads. I will resume the chats the week after the holiday and will continue to post here and on ESPN.com in the interim, with a 2016 rule 4 draft preview going up tomorrow.

My analysis of the Yanks/Twins trade is up for Insiders, as is my buyers’ guide to starting pitchers. As always, questions go in the box here, not in the comments. Thanks!

Klaw: If there’s a new way, I’ll be the first in line. Klawchat.

Brandon: What do the Angels have to give up to land Tehran? Seems like a GREAT buy low guy.
Klaw: What do they have to go get anyone other than Newcomb? System is very thin and much of what’s good is so far away that the trade value is limited.

Nick: What type of ceiling offensively do you see for Conforto?
Klaw: .300+ average, 20 or so HR, high high OBPs. I think he’s a hell of a hitter.

Kevin: What do you think of the return the Padres got for Benoit? Is Nelson Ward a legit SS prospect?
Klaw: Very meh. Ward played six games at short all year, by the way. He’s a 2b.

James: How ridiculous is Simmons not winning the gold glove?
Klaw: Almost as ridiculous as caring about the Gold Gloves. I gave up on them.

Patrick: What’s keeping Christian Colon from being an everyday 2nd baseman? Not consistent enough stick?
Klaw: Yes. Although those high-contact no-power guys often hit their way into more regular playing time.

John: Is Herrera a reasonable upgrade at 2B for the Mets?
Klaw: I think so; what I saw of him in the minors told me he’d be an above-average defender at 2b, but he was erratic in the majors when he played there.

Dan: Not a question, but want to point out to those that call you arrogant that you listed Schilling on your fake HOF ballot. You personally oppose many of his viewpoints (and have had repercussions because of it) yet you are able to put that aside and recognize his accomplishments.
Klaw: I appreciate that, but people who call me this or that aren’t going to change their opinions based on facts because their original opinions weren’t based on facts either.

Addoeh: So no Math 55?
Klaw: Math 21 (multivariate calc with vectors) was it for me. I regret it – I would have enjoyed more math classes but felt burned out on math after HS and didn’t fully grasp what other areas of math (e.g., number theory, topology,, statistics) were out there to study.

Marshall: Speaking of political philosophy, can you recall a presidential primary so devoid of facts as what we have seen thus far on the Republican side?
Klaw: Are any of them ever built around facts? It’s more rhetoric and sound bytes, right?

Jason: Are the Braves truly and honestly rebuilding? Or is there a sense that Liberty Media is in cost cutting mode and mandating some of these trades?
Klaw: They’re rebuilding. I have talked to lots of folks there and no one has said anything about ownership mandating cost cutting.

Sean: 50 games for smoking pot? That has to be one of the most ridiculous things I’ve heard in a long time.
Klaw: And only for minor leaguers. I don’t get why MLB wanted it, or why the MLBPA signed off on it. If they want to come down harder on cocaine, I’d be fine with that – use that and you’re a serious danger to yourself and possibly your teammates, and it can clearly affect your performance negatively. Marijuana? Not so much. And it’s increasingly legal across the states.

Owen (London): What actually gets asked in managerial interviews ? Are GMs and owners looking for dazzling examples of in-game acumen or are they sounding out guys who agree to give good copy and toe the line ? In other words, what magic sentence did Dusty utter to land the gig ? I’m still baffled.
Klaw: I don’t know what exactly is asked, but a lot of those interviews are just eyewash – they’ve already decided who they want to hire, but have to go through the process for everyone else to see it. I do know a few clubs who ask very specific questions on tactics or on developing players, and I think those folks – Tampa Bay is one certain example – get better results.

Todd: Hardest class you took at Harvard?
Klaw: Never took anything that hard (partly my fault; I didn’t exactly seek out the challenges) but had some that were so excruciatingly boring that I didn’t fare so well. I remember a government (political philosophy) class my freshman year where we had to read the classics of the field – Locke, Rousseau, Mill, Huntington – and for the first and only time in my life, I hated reading.

Scott Upham: Alex Meyer had a trying season in 2015 (being polite). What is his future outlook – closer/reliever or starter?
Klaw: Has to be reliever at least for now.

Pat: Lot of angst about giving up Shelby Miller for Heyward, but what people don’t understand is that Heyward now understands what is means to play for the Cardinals. That has to go a long way in getting a hometown discount. Can you see the Cards getting him and a front line starter like Price if both take a little less to win?
Klaw: Hometown discounts don’t exist, and also, it’s not his hometown – Atlanta is, more or less. And by the way, players can get full freight and still go to a winner. It’s not like Heyward would sign with, say, Boston or the Yankees and never sniff the playoffs again.

Marshall: Adam Brett Walker has immense power, but horrid OBP skills – given his age is there much precedent in him developing that ability enough to be a useful MLB player?
Klaw: I can’t think of an example of one. He’ll get an opportunity, but he won’t succeed barring a huge change in approach.

Sam: Do you think Kelby Tomlinson has the tools to play the outfield as the Giants hope?
Klaw: No, nor do I think he’ll hit enough to play every day.

Jay: Chris Young a perfect Schwarber caddy?
Klaw: Yes, but I wouldn’t want to platoon Schwarber – let him face lefties and learn to hit them.

Jason: Keith, did you see Jacoby Jones in the AFL? What do you think is his ultimate position, IF, OF, or both in some kind of UT?
Klaw: Utility only. Don’t think he’ll hit enough to play anywhere every day. And not a shortstop at all.

Archibald Meatpants: How do most scouts weight fastball velocity vs. fastball movement/command when evaluating pitchers? Just asking, because there are some guys in the upper 90s who seem to get smashed, while other guys really make 91-93 play up.
Klaw: Should be two separate categories. You can have an 80 fastball with 30 life. Seriously, you can have it, because I don’t want it.

Todd Benzinger: Would a Betts for Thor trade work for both sides?
Klaw: That’s a lot better although I’d still rather have Betts.

Glen: Is Ian Clarkin going to turn into a decent starting pitcher?
Klaw: If healthy, he should. Still has the size and the breaking ball. Arm actually works fine. Pitching is brutal, man.

Matt: Would you really consider the White Sox having a “surplus of pitching”? Outside of Sale/Quintana/Rodon there isn’t much quality there, right?
Klaw: When I was doing the starting pitcher trade targets today, one thing became pretty obvious: No one has a surplus of pitching, really. Even the Mets are five deep and only five deep. If someone – I’m not even saying a name, not that I believe in such woo but I don’t want to seem like i’m wishing for it – there gets hurt, who steps in? They’ve traded any possible fill-in starter who was close.

Moose: Is Christian Arroyo for real? MLB comp?
Klaw: Can hit, not a shortstop.

Scarface Joe: What kind of package is Chapman going to bring back? He’s dominant, but it’s one year for a reliever. Who’s the team that pays up for that?
Klaw: Dombrowski? Has to be a team with an ardent desire to win now and willingness to move prospects for immediate value.

mike: Haven’t heard the Russell hot rumor but what dj you think about a quintana for baez package?
Klaw: I would want a little more for the White Sox there. Baez has a very high beta – still a good chance he’s not even a regular. Quintana’s very good and cheap.

Flaming Buns: Let’s say Gray and Sale are truly unavailable. Who’s the most logical young #1 starter target for Boston? Carrasco, Ross, Archer?
Klaw: Carrasco. Not saying he’s AVAILABLE, but that I think they’d listen to a rich offer. That’s a guy I’d go after with Swihart.

Tyler: Did you get a look at Manaea in AZ? Possibility for a midseason call-up?
Klaw: Yes. Better than I’d seen him in July. Check my AFL blog posts for more details.

Ken Rosenthal: Benoit to M’s
Klaw: I had this written for the buyers’ guide for tomorrow (and will now be taking it out of the piece): Benoit is a “good when healthy” guy, although even that underrates him a little since he’s thrown at least 54 innings in six straight seasons, just missing most of the last six weeks of 2014. The Padres picked up his $7.5 million option for 2016, which seems awfully steep for a guy who might be worth a win above replacement if he throws 65 innings, but they may also have figured he has some trade value if they agree to pay a third or so of his salary. He’ll show three above-average pitches, with the changeup plus, and was in the top dozen relievers in the majors for contact rate (according to Fangraphs) in 2015. He’s 38 with quite a bit of mileage on him, but would be an upgrade for a lot of teams in the 8th inning.

Ryan: How would you vote with the 10 person limit? Do you just pick the best 10 or do you try to “game” the system and leave off the sure thing to get some other guys in there?
Klaw: Ten best guys because I think that’s the mandate. I don’t like gaming the system even though the system is a bad joke.

JA: What do you think of Baggarly’s proposed trade of Maybin and Teheran for Pagan, Strickland, Beede, and Williamson?
Klaw: Don’t like it for Atlanta. Beede’s value has dropped with his velocity as he’s now a sinkerballer with poor control.

Glen: Thoughts on Mateo possibly moving to 2nd base?
Klaw: Don’t get it – thought he had at least average defender potential at short, maybe more. Certainly fast enough to play anywhere on the field.

Roddy: I truly believe the White Sox are going to surprise people next year. With a surplus of pitching do you see them moving Quintana? Hot rumor is a trade with the Cubs for Russell to replace Alexei.
Klaw: That’s a hot rumor that makes no sense for the Cubs.

Michael: Is the contract Heyward gets a sort of litmus test for how far sabermetrics have come in front offices? It seems like 10 years ago, he would have been way undervalued.
Klaw: I agree … and I agree.

Joshua: Swihart to Nats for Reynaldo Lopez? Start to a discussion, or a complete hang up?
Klaw: Nowhere near enough for Swihart. I think Lopez is more likely to end up in the pen.

Bruce K: My son is 12 years old and a high level reader. It is tough to find books that challenge him that are still age appropriate. Do you have any suggestions?
Klaw: Running into similar trouble with my daughter. Have you tried Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer? That’s a series now, and the vocab is appropriate.

Tyler: Did the Hall Board reject the increase from 10 to 12 names on the ballot as a backdoor way to make it more difficult for PED guys to get in? Otherwise, I don’t get the “not the right time” talking point.
Klaw: There is no question in my mind that that was their intent. All the more reason for us to vote for Bonds and Clemens!

Chris: Any favorite slow cooker recipes?
Klaw: All questions allowed. Still a big fan of throwing a pork shoulder in there for carnitas. Also love short ribs with dried figs and a bright red wine.

Jack: Just curious, at what point after posting a question should I assume that specific one won’t be answered – 5 minutes or so?
Klaw: I could probably stop taking questions now and be set for the rest of the hour. I see all the questions but can’t possibly answer them all. Sorry.

Georgia: Even taking away the “I won’t vote for him first year” crowd, how does a HOF candidate go from 55% to 75% over a few years? Are voters not taking it seriously? If you think Raines is a HOF guy, or not, it shouldn’t change much this year to next.
Klaw: But it does/has over history. The process is awful, and it allows for way too much wanking by the voters over their own ballots. Part of me would like to get that ten years in and get the ballot. Part of me would like to drive the bulldozer that razes the building to the ground.

Mark in Toronto: Have your thoughts on Rowdy Tellez’s chances changed?
Klaw: You’d know the answer if you read my AFL posts…

Chris: Would you trade Swihart for pitching assuming Vasquez comes back?
Klaw: Yes, if the pitching was high-end enough. I think Swihart has a chance to be a star too, a plus defensive catcher who hits. It may take time to get to that value, and that is the only reason I’d be willing to discuss moving him.

Bob Pollard: Max Kepler – star or just a guy?
Klaw: Chance for a star.

Andy: What are the chances of Bagwell getting into the Hall on this years ballot?
Klaw: I think Piazza and Junior – who, by the way, was well-known within the industry as an unpleasant person (I’m being kind) while he was a player, yet is revered by fans who revile other players of higher character – get in, and Bagwell makes a big move up. Raines is the one who worries me most – he needs a big jump this year to get in spitting distance for the final-year bump.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Percentage of GM Speak we should believe: 18%. Over or Under?
Klaw: Under. They have little incentive to tell us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Michael: A lot of Yankee blogs suggest Gary Sanchez has matured–apparently he had a kid. Is that not what you’re hearing or are you basing your opinion on old reports?
Klaw: If they reported he had a kid I’m sure that’s true. I just saw the guy play in the AFL a few weeks ago, so “old reports” doesn’t apply here.

Haymaker: Cubs and Royals are apparently asking Boston about Jackie Bradley, Jr. Do you think his bat will play at the Big League level long-term? Also, what is your best guess as to what it would take from the Cubs to entice Boston to move him (based on your knowledge of both systems/needs)?
Klaw: I think it’ll play, without much power. He’s better when he stays short to the ball and uses the opposite field. When he gets long to try to hit the ball out, the strikeouts pile up. Maybe eventually he can do it all at the same time, but I haven’t seen any of that from him.

Scott Upham: Which current minor leaguers resemble the Mike Trout- / George Springer / Mookie Betts multi-tool profile?
Klaw: Benintendi has a lot of that – CF, run/power combo, people love the feel to hit, although he doesn’t have the explosive speed of the guys you mentioned. Lewis Brinson comes to mind too.

Gary: I’ve scene you review a lot of sci-fi novels. Have you ever read Asimov’s Foundation trilogy? If so, thoughts? I’m getting ready to start Foundation.
Klaw: Read it in HS and loved it. Books 4 and 5 started to slip and I never read the books in the series by other authors.

Michael: What would you realistically do if Mike Trout did what Jose Reyes allegedly did? Would you actually release or trade the best player?
Klaw: I’d trade him, yes. Or I’d quit. But you all know I’m weird like that.

Jake: Would the Padres look to deal Ian Kennedy if he accepts their QO?
Klaw: They can’t until June 15th.

Alex in Austin: Aoki’s $5.5M option seemed like a given. Instead Giants buy it out for $700k? If you exercise, at worst is that not a tradeable asset?
Klaw: Probably a tick overpriced given age/health concerns (just in the sense that he’s probably not a 140-150 game player). But salaries are moving up so fast that it could end up seeming like fair value by February.

Mike P.: Would you move Giles no matter what? Or only if blown away? And what would it take to be blown away?
Klaw: He’s in tomorrow’s buyers’ guide post. Only if blown away.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can the Nats actually expect to field a lineup that has Taylor, Ramos and Escobar/Espinosa and expect to compete?
Klaw: I have a feeling, based on nothing but my own gut, that they’ll do something in CF. Can’t see them running Taylor’s bat out there every day.

Tim: Did you care for the new Grimes album? Any standouts?
Klaw: Loved it – one of the best of the year. Flesh Without Blood, California, the new version of REALiTi, the title track, Venus Fly all great.

Archie: I know you mentioned him in your write up, but do you think Kepler starts Opening Day now that Hicks is gone?
Klaw: I think he’s ready, and he’s already on the 40-man, and this is the team that pushed Hicks to the majors before he was fully ready (so it’s not like they’re wildly service-time conscious). I think there’s a decent chance, at least.

Bob: Thanks for the board game list. However, I’m suffering form information overload here. My wife dislikes board games because I’m too competitive or they’re too complicated. Knowledge-based games are no good because I know so much strange stuff. Therefore, we haven’t played a new game since Trivial Pursuit. Thoughts on a good two-person game that might bridge the gap?
Klaw: I put a list of the best two-player games below the main list. Start at the top of that and work your way down…

Scott Upham: With Hicks now a Yankee, who is the odd men out in Minnesota’s OF between Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia et al
Klaw: I think Rosario is probably out, and I would guess Arcia is/ends up on the outside too. A lot depends on whether Sano can handle an outfield corner.

Justin (DC): Love the board game lists. I didn’t see much turnover this year over last year though. I think Broom Service at 17 was the highest new board game. Quiet year, or just the best games are already out there?
Klaw: That’s correct. Broom Service won the Kennerspiel des Jahres, so I’m not alone in thinking it was the best of the year. Nothing came along like Splendor to upend the whole market.

Mike: Mark Simon wrote an article today about a hypothetical Mookie Betts for Matt Harvey swap. Good deal for both sides?
Klaw: I’m not dealing five years of Betts for three of Harvey.

Tim: Noticed you didn’t include Jay Bruce in your outfielders offseason guide. Is his value (with the option) so low that trading him wouldn’t get the Reds a decent (#75-100) prospect in return?
Klaw: He might – those guides aren’t supposed to name every single player who might be traded. I pick a few I find interesting/likely but I will miss a few who get moved.

Busty Daker: What do you think the Dodgers would realistically have to give up to make a Simmons trade happen?
Klaw: I’ve talked to a few folks in Boca who said the Simmons stuff is overblown – everyone’s talking every player, but unless Atlanta gets blown away, he’s probably not going anywhere. His contract is so cheap they really can ask for the sun and the moon – Seager and DeLeon too much? OK, we’ll keep Simmons instead. Thanks.

Michael: Do teams use advanced stats from minor league games or is evaluation 100% based on scouting?
Klaw: Lots of advanced analysis on minor league data going on.

Marshall: A team like Detroit seems to be stuck in a sort of purgatory – not going to win their division, not many good prospects, aging players signed to long contracts. Do they keep spending until the wheels fall off of Miggy, or make everyone (including Miggy) available right now?
Klaw: Sounds like they’ll spend to patch the major-league roster now while slowly trying to build the system back up. Dombrowski viewed the farm strictly as currency for trades. Avila views it as a real farm system, one that should produce players for the major-league roster too.

JA: Would you buy low on Doug Fister? Do you believe he can be a quality starter in the rotation again?
Klaw: I would, but recognize the risk. You could get him and he posts a 6 ERA by mid-May and you have to release him. It’s not likely but it is a nonzero probability outcome.

Geoff: What can you tell us hopeless Rockies fans about Antonio Senzatela? He doesn’t seem to get mentioned with the other promising arms in the system but his stats suggest he should.
Klaw: I had him 14th in their system going into the year. Strike-thrower without great stuff, needs a better swing-and-miss offspeed pitch.

Tom: White Sox do have a pretty decent “surplus” of pitching prospects, no?
Klaw: They do? I’m not sure anyone really has that right now, but I don’t think the White Sox do. Houston would have a good argument that they have the biggest collection of potential SP prospects.

Rich: Another thank you for the board game list, specifically the mention of the games for which quality apps are available. I can’t decide if having my books and games on my iPad is progress, or something else, though.
Klaw: I do both – apps and physical games, dead trees and ebooks. Sometimes the ebook is just cheaper. And you can’t exactly bust out Stone Age on the plane.

Bob: When Houston tanked a couple of years ago, did they build up the farm system through the draft or through trading vets for prospects or a combo? My real question is if it’s really possible in this environment to significantly upgrade your farm system through trades?
Klaw: Both. They picked first overall three straight years. They hit on a handful of lower-round picks. They traded sharply. It’s a model for other teams – not THE model, but A model that works if you have the right personnel in your front office and on your scouting staffs.

chris: read that the yankees should sign heyward, where exactly would he fit in with that roster? nobody will take beltran to ellsbury
Klaw: Beltran’s got a year left, so that’s just dead money they could even release. Ellsbury is harder to figure – is he a sunk cost at this point? Could they swap him for a bad pitching contract?

Barry. Florida: Would you describe yourself as a progressive or libertarian?
Klaw: Probably neither. I just am.

John: How far away is Dom Smith?
Klaw: Figure he starts at Binghamton, and if he does what I expect, finishes in triple-A and could make his debut as early as September but more likely next year.

Rob: Do you think you’re going to try Pandemic Legacy, or does that concept not really appeal to you? You ranked Pandemic highly and PL is zooming up the BGG charts.
Klaw: Don’t like the concept of destroying the board. Plus the idea of playing a single game 15 or 20 straight times … have you seen my collection? Not happening. The BGG charts are useful but often bonkers. Lots of 3-4 hour games all over the top of their rankings. Those are not my people.

Chris: Would you tender Ruben Tejada at $2M or so? Read something about Mets considering just going w/ Reynolds and Flores next year. That wreaks of cheapness, to me.
Klaw: Feel like you could tender and trade him. That’s peanuts for a second-tier starter/good UT.

Andrew: Does the Astros IF future have Bregman at SS and Correa at 3B?
Klaw: Doubt it. Correa’s a better defender than Bregman.

Jack: Any update on Nimmo? Feels like he isn’t really progressing. Is he a 4th OF?
Klaw: Yes, I’m in that camp now. Gave him a lot of chances, but can’t play CF and has too little power/doesn’t hit LHP well enough for a corner.

Sam: Should I be concerned that mets prospects seem too far away. By the time they are producing, pitching will be close to free agency.
Klaw: I agree. It was the price of those big acquisitions this summer.

sam: I know the thought of a 6 man rotation seems ridiculous, especially given the diminishing return of a 6th starter, but given all the injury concerns for the Yanks (& Severino’s awkward delivery & small frame), would you try it if you were them to try to keep all 6 as fresh & productive as possible? That way, if one breaks down 2 months into the season, you still have a 5 man rotation that’s had its innings reduced for 1/3 the season.
Klaw: Someone’s going to try it soon. I think we’re coming up on an era of experimentation with the whole pitching paradigm. The Rays had three starters in 2015 who were twice-through-the-order guys. Maybe someone goes with a 4-man rotation where no one ever faces more than 18 batters?

Ryan: Reading Lance Lynn knew there was something wrong in June but refused the idea of surgery. He went on to have a pretty poor September and was a non factor in the playoffs. At what point is it the player’s responsibility to recognize you are injured and stop trying to tough it out?
Klaw: Maybe he thought he was helping the team … I agree that players should speak up when hurt but don’t like the idea of criticizing a player for trying to stay on the field.

Marshall: KLaw you raise a salient point, people act as if there is A singular model to building a team. In the end, the teams that most accurately judge and and acquire talent are the teams that win. In a lot of cases that ability is not something that can continually be sustained over the long haul.
Klaw: For example, what Kansas City just did probably isn’t replicable. It took them nearly a decade to win the WS – not criticizing them, BTW – and they had to have so much go right the last two years, in terms of players all developing at the same time, maxing out returns on major trades (the Greinke deal went from “okay” to “holy crap arrest Dayton Moore for larceny”), and key guys staying healthy. You can’t just put that in a business plan.

Johnny: Where the hell has Top Chef been??
Klaw: December 2nd return. Can’t wait.

Chris: Ugh just remembering the Mets traded Meisner for Clippard AND Robles was probably more effective down stretch is nauseating. How could a club give Clippard more than a year in FA?
Klaw: I wouldn’t – that’s why I didn’t list him on my top 50. Everything pointed down for him in the first half; that’s why there wasn’t much of a market for him until the Mets showed up.

Tom: With your characterization of Griffey below, is the lesson to be learned between him and Bonds is that, if you’re going to be a jerk, don’t do it where the public can see you?
Klaw: No question.

Steve: Hi Keith. A difficult question to answer, I’m sure, but here goes. I’m married to a woman from Vietnam, and she’s interested in learning new approaches to critical thinking and logic, because her formal education in those skills just wasn’t very good (her opinion). Do you have any recommendations that might help her improve in those areas? For example, a certain board game, or book, or anything else you think might help her better develop these specific skills. Thanks a lot.
Klaw: That is a difficult question. Most great board games are built somehow on math or logic, even if it’s not directly visible to the players. Knizia’s games, like Samurai or Tigris & Euphrates, have that as a huge component. I’d also suggest books like The Invisible Gorilla or Think Twice as highly accessible books that discuss things like cognitive illusions and improved decision-making. Oh, and don’t watch the Republican debates.

Andrew: There is a narrative out there which suggests that the Astros have a negative reputation and will have trouble attracting FAs. Is this overblown and/or has recent success diluted this notion?
Klaw: Nonexistent. What a dumb narrative. You know what attracts free agents every time, without fail? Money.

Michael: Do you know what it is about baseball that makes injuries to a star or great player diminish him so much that almost any replacement could be better? Is the difference between being good and bad that small?
Klaw: I would guess – no science here, just a quick reaction – that it is a function of the minuscule degrees of timing required in hitting a baseball or throwing one well enough to hit a spot or miss a bat. Interfere with that in the slightest way and the player is a fraction of himself.

Eric. Florida: Are you for free-speech zones? Do you think this is very progressive?
Klaw: I don’t even know what that means. Free speech is a right guaranteed us all by the First Amendment. It means if you want to run around in blackface, the government can’t arrest you for being a racist asshole. But if you want to run around in blackface on campus, the college can suspend or expel you, because that’s a private institution. Do it at work and your employer can fire you. Do it on TV or on social media and the same can happen. Free speech doesn’t protect you from private consequences. It only means that the government can’t stop you or punish you.

Michael, DC: What do you think is the most efficient way for a small market (read, cheap owner) team like Cleveland to allocate its offseason resources? Trading from SP depth to get a power bat, buying a few mid-low level FAs or continuing to develop from within?
Klaw: Developing from within is always the answer, but isn’t an offseason plan: If the players aren’t there yet, you have to do something else. Trading a starter for multiple young pieces when you know you can’t go buy stars in free agency makes sense. You take on the risk and the time lag (acquiring players who might produce less in 2016 than the established pitcher you gave up) as the cost of doing business with low revenues and a tiny payroll.

Tom: Keith, Zack Greinke is the only free agent who said he went to a team (Dodgers) because they offered him the most money. Every other free agent wants a chance to win. That’s what they say. So I think you’re WAY off there.
Klaw: Oh, well, if that’s what they say, it must be true, because no one ever mouthed a platitude to the media just to satisfy the likes of you.

Forsyth: Does JBJ for Carson Smith of the Mariners make sense for both sides?
Klaw: Not at all.

Alex: Do the Cubs benefit more from trading say Baez or Soler or Castro for pitching, and signing say Heyward? Or signing Price, and holding on to the kids a bit longer and see how things shake out?
Klaw: I say keep Soler, who has the best combination of upside and the probability of reaching it. Trade one of the other two, because there aren’t enough AB to go around otherwise anyway: Bryant 3b, Russell ss, Baez/Castro 2b, Rizzo 1b, Schwarber LF, Soler RF.

Dave: How would you rate the Mets big 5 pitchers going forward? Would you think of trading any of then for a bat?
Klaw: Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, Matz. I’d deal Matz, who has the worst history of durability of the group. But then they’re short a starter.

N: Out of the box question klaw. First off, thank you for all the non-baseball stuff you indulge in on your blog, perirscope, twitter and here in the chats. I recently started dating someone who considers herself to have a mild anxiety disorder and has been diagnosed as manic-depressive. We’ve been together for a few months and things have been great and are getting serious. Considering your background with anxiety, do you have any recommendations for someone on the other side of it in a relationship? I don’t suffer from either of those illnesses, but want to be as sympathetic and supportive as I can.
Klaw: That’s not an easy question – and I’d advise you to talk to a therapist who deals with such issues if you can, just to better acquaint yourself. Learning to recognize the signs of someone who’s “off” is probably the biggest key; whether it’s forgetting to take whatever meds she’s supposed to be on or facing a trigger like stress or otherwise losing her routine, it can change her personality, and you have to be ready to provide support while also managing the change in her mood, demeanor, even language.

Drew: Any chance you see Roark bouncing back to anything approximating his 2014 form? Or should the Nats replace him with Cole?
Klaw: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Roark, Cole. Did I forget someone?

Noah: Is Maikel Franco a future superstar?
Klaw: I do not think so. I think he’s an above-average regular.

Richie: Any chance the Mets look to trade Plawecki considering they need a bat and arent likely to trade any of their pitchers? What could a guy like him bring back?
Klaw: I think someone asked me that in the periscope yesterday and I don’t have a good answer. D’Arnaud could be an All-Star, a top 25 player in the league, if he could stay healthy and catch 130 games. I don’t have a ton of confidence that he’ll do that. If you keep Plawecki, you can move d’Arnaud around, give him a few days off now and then when he needs it, and still get production from behind the plate. If you move him, you will get a lot of zeroes from back there.

Jay: Are the Braves in on other international FAS besides Kevin Maitan? And is that handshake deal still legit?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about others but I haven’t looked into it. Those deals are totally illegal and nobody cares.

@RationalMLBfan: Lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner. Granted, he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup and has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons, but isn’t a valuable player valuable, regardless of distribution of success of handedness? And he has an affordable contract. What is the urgency to trade him?
Klaw: I don’t see the urgency. I could see them saying they want to move Ellsbury for another bad contract, but Gardner in LF and Hicks in CF and any non-Beltran solution in RF looks pretty good to me.

Drew: Ross is the other potential Nats starter I had in mind. Does he need more time in AA/AAA?
Klaw: Ah, you’re right, I did forget someone. I’d put him over Cole in the depth chart and probably over Roark, although that may be my longtime affinity for Ross speaking.

Patrick: I must have missed your comments regarding Gary Sanchez. Do you think he can be a backup this season and eventually the #1 in NY?
Klaw: I think he needs to go to AAA and catch every day so he can work on receiving, framing, and being focused on every pitch. The one thing he can really do back there is throw, though.

Sean: Cubs need two SP. Would seem one will come from a trade but instead of huge $ pitcher with Arietta voming up mext year, how about Leake? Seems it would be reasonable $/ouput and be a more consistant Hendricjs type of pitcher with more track record and ground balls. Agree?
Klaw: I do agree, but I think Leake is a fit for about 20 clubs, and also I read that as “Arietta vomiting up” next year, which disturbed me.

Jason: With the latest setback for Reyes is he going to be able to break the rotation next year in St. Louis?
Klaw: Maybe midyear? Stuff is there, command isn’t, also missed a lot of time with that shoulder issue and the delivery isn’t helping matters. Don’t think the suspension costs him that much.

Bret: Keith, I know you’ve written about how medications for your anxiety has made such a difference for you. How would you suggest speaking to someone about opting to try medication for mental health challenges if they don’t seem open to the idea?
Klaw: Send him/her to a therapist first. I was fortunate in the sense that I have people close to me who were already taking SSRIs and I knew how they worked and that that was what I needed. Talking to a professional might help your friend.

Noah: if your the Phillies and you’re picking first, do you draft one of the top players that’s willing to sign below slot?
Klaw: If there is no clear 1-1 on draft day – there isn’t one yet – then you make your board, talk to the top 2-3 guys, offer each of them slot for #2 (or maybe #3) and see who takes it. You want that savings so you can go over slot with your next pick, maybe your next two.

FireDrayton: Sorry for re-posting, but figured I’d try again. What level of starting pitcher has comparable value to an elite closer? In other words, you’d rather have X starting pitcher than Chapman, with X being the worst SP who is still more valuable than an elite closer.
Klaw: I’d rather have a mid-rotation starter than an elite closer. 200 innings vs 60. WAR tends to agree with that. You have to place a very high value on performance in high-leverage spots to favor the closer there.

Jason: Who is the best prospect that no one knew of at the beginning of the year?
Klaw: Willson Contreras?

Jack: Was d’Arnaud exposed defensively in the WS like people seem to think? I mean, it was the Royals after all.
Klaw: The Royals exposed a lot of people this year, by which I mean they were just a really fucking good baseball team. That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for coming and firing so many questions at me. I’ll chat next week on Thursday, most likely, and I’ll reveal my NL Rookie of the Year ballot on Monday when the results are announced. Cheers.

My top 50 free agent rankings are up for Insiders.

Klaw: Too late to beg you or cancel it, though I know it must be Klawchat time.

David (Fort Worth, TX): If offered will Gallardo be the 1st to ever accept the Qualifying Offer?
Klaw: I’m thinking Estrada might be the first to accept. If anyone makes him a better offer, I hope they have some prayer beads.

George Evanko: What, in your opinion, is Lucas Giolito’s ETA in the big leagues? And how does he compare in terms of long-range career projections and immediate impact to Harvey, deGrom, and Syndegaard?
Klaw: Mid-2016. I think he could help sooner, but there’s no reason to rush him and there are things he could still work on (e.g., command and feel for the changeup).

Zack: On the 20-80 scale, how would you rate your arrogance? Advance scouts are saying you’re a first ballot HOF.
Klaw: Big talk from a guy who obviously doesn’t know what advance scouts do (or that they barely exist any more).

Marc (Las Vegas): I have a quick book question for you as you read about as often as anyone I am personally aware of. I love reading, but have a tendency to become extremely tired within the first 10-15 pages. Even if the material is right up my alley I just can’t seem to avoid this. Any chance you have any advice on overcoming this and being able to actually enjoy the books I read without being half asleep? Thanks again and your chats are as insightful plus entertaining as anyone out there.
Klaw: No joke: Better lighting. And try getting more sleep in general, of course, but I’ve noticed (as someone who can often fall asleep at the drop of a hat) that lighting makes a huge difference.

Jack: If you were a GM would you ever sign a top 25 free agent? I don’t disagree with your assessments, but your ideal contracts are very far below what they will actually receive. If there’s a good fit for a winning team do you just need to bite the bullet and realize you’re getting ripped off?
Klaw: Those numbers I offer are pretty abstract because the marginal revenue product of a win varies from team to team. If you’re the GM of an 87-win team on paper, adding a six-win player is worth a hell of a lot more to you than that same player is to a GM of a 70-win team. And market size matters too, and revenue elasticity relative to win total. Add to that the winner’s curse – in an open auction, the bidder with the most optimistic (and therefore likely too favorable) projection is the probable winner – and you will find nearly all of my “recommendations” are lower than the actual market values.

Owen (London): Hello Keith- While the Lerners seem to make their fair share of new owner mistakes, shouldn’t we give them credit for batting .500 in minority hires for manager ? That comes with the obvious caveat that it appears Bud Black was offered the job first but when that fell through they didn’t try to lure Davey Johnson back and win a PR exercise. It would be nice if other clubs did more than just go through the motions.
Klaw: I have no complaint with that. But how about giving one of the many qualified, not-famous managerial candidates of color a chance, rather than the guy who has shown no ability to improve or adjust over his last three jobs?

Nick (DC): Yesterday in his introductory press conference, Dusty Baker said: “Supposedly I ruined [Cubs pitcher Mark] Prior. There was no such things as pitch counts, and we had unwritten pitch counts ourselves.” No one called him out on this, but I find it hard to believe that in 2003, pitch counts were not on everyone’s radar as a major concern. Any thoughts on this?
Klaw: There were absolutely pitch counts, and Dusty ignored them. Worse, in my mind, is that game 6 when Prior was visibly laboring in the 7th and Dusty sent him out for the 8th with no one up in the pen. If you couldn’t see that Prior was done, you can’t manage a team.

Brady: Not a question, but I was worried you left ESPN. No chats on there any more and no content for a bit until the organizational rankings. Glad you’re not gone and that I found this chat. Can you post something on ESPN telling people where to find your chats? Thanks!
Klaw: I’ve been chatting here for two months, but since I don’t have any editorial control at ESPN (I don’t even post my own articles), I can’t help you with the latter point.

Dan K.: I know you were high on soler’s upside. Do you still feel the same after watching his defense this past year? Would you trade him if you were the Cubs for pitching? Thanks for your great insight.
Klaw: Still a big believer in the offensive upside. Defense has been less than expected. I would be willing to make him, Baez, Castro available in trades just because I think they have a surplus of bats.

Andrew: Overall thoughts on Reds naming Dick Williams GM ? I know Walt will still be in an “advisory role”. Have you had any interactions or what others are saying about the move ? Thanks !
Klaw: Don’t think there’s any substantial change in direction there, although it does allow them to skip a full GM search next offseason when Jocketty was expected to retire.

James: Hey Keith thanks for the chats, I’ve always loved them. So Dave Cameron predicted the Rangers sign Yoenis Cespedes for a huge deal, but do you really see them adding another 100 million dollar player to their roster? I mean it’s impossible to get rid of Fielder’s deal, and Choo’s in the same boat it seems.
Klaw: I wouldn’t recommend they do so given the presence of Mazara, Brinson, and perhaps Gallo as cheap, productive outfield options.

Tyson: How much is a prospect’s stock affected by how well they do in the AFL?
Klaw: For a significant prospect, not at all. For a fringe guy – maybe someone you’re considering protecting from the rule 5 draft – it can make a difference because scouts are bearing down a little more. Most AFL scouts have lists from their teams of guys to focus on because they might be exposed to the rule 5 or otherwise available in trade.

Anthony: Recommended course of action for the Mets this offseason? I presume it doesn’t include resigning golfing enthusiast Yoenis Cespedes or GLAAD award nominee Daniel Murphy, right?
Klaw: Nope, but spending on one bat wouldn’t be the worst idea. The problem I see is where: You probably want Herrera at 2b, Conforto and Granderson are locked in the corners, finding a CF who’s a real upgrade over a healthy Lagares (grade 80 defense with a smidgen of bat) isn’t easy. Shortstop isn’t easy to upgrade either.

Konk: Didn’t know you were into craft beer. Your stock is rising Mr. Law
Klaw: Zack the Coward thinks I should only drink Arrogant Bastard, though.

Aaron (Texas): KLAW, how did the “bathroom” scare tactic obtain almost 2/3rd of all votes? Also what are your thoughts on turducken?
Klaw: Because there are a lot of bigots out there and equal rights should NEVER be up for a popular vote. Turducken is an abomination, though, no matter which bathroom it uses.

Hermione G: What is the best thing to cook in a slow cooker? And why don’t you post the recipe for that pie you use as your twitter avatar?
Klaw: The pie is the peach pie from Baking Illustrated, and the easiest/best slow cooker meal is carnitas – slice some onions, season a boneless pork butt (shoulder), rest it on the onions in the slow cooker and give it 6-8 hours on low.

Alex: Is this the year someone accepts a QO and if so who do you think is the most likely to do so?
Klaw: Yes, see above.

Ivan: Will Hayward get interest from teams looking for a center fielder
Klaw: Yes, but I would not sign him there. I think you’re giving up a huge advantage from having his glove in RF and I would worry about him staying healthy in CF as well as he’s done so in right.

Derek: Would Melvin Upton’s poor performance the last few years give you any pause in signing Justin Upton at a similar age? One part of the process is looking for comps, and there are plenty of reasons to think Melvin and Justin aren’t good comps. But isn’t it possible that the bloodline provides some insight into aging that we might not get from using statistically similar comps? What I’m saying is not that Justin is going to play like Melvin, but that maybe Melvin’s experience should cause us to think Justin might “get old” faster than some of his similar comps.
Klaw: I believe a huge part of Melvin’s problem was Atlanta’s hitting coaches, who screwed up quite a few fine young players through 2014, including Heyward and Justin too. Melvin actually had a decent season for San Diego, I think his best since before he left Tampa.

Brian: Loved a Confederacy of Dunces. Any similar books you would recommend? Ever read Lucky Jim? Thanks!
Klaw: Loved both. ACoD stands a bit alone in that I’m not sure I’ve ever read anything quite like it, but I think Infinite Jest, Inherent Vice, and some of Philip K. Dick’s works have similar elements.

Kyle: I may have missed this, but what are you reactions on the M’s front office moves? After such a horrible string of player development, I have to admit that I’m excited. Thanks!
Klaw: Progress, certainly. Tom Allison deserved another shot to oversee amateur scouting; his results in Arizona were good then and only look better in hindsight. I know nothing about the guy they hired to oversee player development. I also know they let some good people go in the shuffle this summer and fall.

Chris: Please rank these options for next year at Mets SS: Tejada, Drew, Rollins.
Klaw: Tejada, no, no.

Mike: Joey Bats trade value will never be higher, do you think Shapiro would trade him to restock the farm System based on his comments.
Klaw: I speculated that on TSN 1050 the other day. You’re not re-signing him or Edwin, so do you trade one for prospects, or do you just ride out the window and go for it one more time? I’d choose the latter. I think Shapiro would choose the former.

Tom: When Klentak says the Phils need to strengthen their pitching as step #1, aside from their arms getting promoted here and there would that include some fliers on mid level guys like bringing Happ back? Based on your description on his presumed price/commitment and potential to firm up positive results from last year is that the kind of arm we’re looking at? Does Thompson get called up sooner rather than later to the big league rotation?
Klaw: I think that’s exactly the kind of move they’d make – sign some depth guys without big upside but who won’t hurt financially, maybe adding one more significant starter to a 3-4 year deal who’ll still be able to help when the big club is better. I don’t think Thompson will be rushed in that scenario, especially with Nola and Eickhoff probably locked into rotation spots.

Silv: In anticipating the Dodgers offseason plans as to pitching a couple of weeks ago you neglected to include Ryu’s return at (anticipated) full strength in 2016. Given that, and making the reasonable assumption that Greinke is resigned, do they really need to put added dollars into Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Wood/McCarthy? Lee, Bolsinger, and even potentially DeLeon and Urias are there if anyone falters. This also goes into my question as to how much roster flexibility the Dodgers actually have? Peraza and Seager seem locked at 2b and SS for 2016 (assuming Kendrick doesn’t accept the QO, which he won’t). If they can’t move an OF or find a substantial upgrade at 3b (and Turner is pretty much fine there), do you see them completing any material transactions?
Klaw: I didn’t neglect him; I wouldn’t count on Ryu at all. He had surgery to fix a torn labrum, not TJ, and if he comes back with less velocity he’s not going to be close to his prior level of production. I also don’t think Lee or Urias is likely to contribute anything in 2016, and McCarthy may be back in late April but I wouldn’t pencil him in for 27-28 starts in his first year back. They absolutely need some depth. I could also see them upgrading the outfield and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they traded Puig.

Anonymous: I realize it is early, but what is Dylan Cease’s ceiling and probability? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Number two starter, still a long way off especially due to command.

Dave: Is it frustrating that you basically have to re-write your Top 50 Free Agent intro to answer questions about it right after posting it?
Klaw: No one ever reads the intro, ever.

Derek Harvey: Last week you said you think Josh Hader is a reliever. Is that because he doesn’t have a good change-up? His command? His delivery/mechanics? Something else?
Klaw: Delivery/mechanics. He’s a max effort near-sidearmer.

Tom: Do you have any information on what Bud Black was asking for and what the Nats offered that they could not reach a deal? I cannot remember anything like this happening in the past. Thanks.
Klaw:All secondhand info, but it sounds like the Nats lowballed him and he justifiably balked.

Rob: Did you ever read Grantland? And, if so, what were your favorite aspects of the site?
Klaw:Sometimes, but never their sports stuff – only the pop culture and entertainment material. I loved the concept of the site – hire good writers and let them go long, rather than hewing to the dead model of column-inches as a scarce resource – but if it wasn’t profitable, I can’t blame my employer for shutting it down. (Disclaimer: I know nothing of Grantland’s financials beyond what’s public.) I feel terrible for the writers affected, though. In a tough environment for professional writers, watching a good, seemingly secure job vanish in a matter of months has to be devastating.

Bill: Unfortunately, when you reference a previous chat answer we have to “see below.” Any chance you could fix the direction of the scroll?
Klaw:I can’t – not my software. I post a full text-only transcript after the chat is done.

Kingpin: Did you get to see Patrick Wisdom? Derrick Goold reported that Wisdom had made significant swing changes. If you observed Wisdom, do the changes make a huge difference? Is he still a fringy, at best, prospect?
Klaw:Yes. Not good.

Michael: I’m pro-LGBT rights, but equal rights should never be put up for a vote?! America’s foundation–both good and bad–is built on letting the people decide for themselves.
Klaw:No. We’re a republic, not a direct democracy. Besides, the 14th Amendment kind of cleared this up forever: Everyone gets equal protection under the law.

MJ: Was Juan Uribe considered for the back end of the top 50? What are your thoughts on him as a player and prediction for the deal he’ll sign (and team)?
Klaw:No, because it’s all character and makeup but no production. I’d hire him as a bench coach straight off, though.

Huh?: Bad contract swap: Bourn, Swisher, Maybin for Hanley? Boston takes on more money but for only this year while Braves take the 3 remaining years of Hanley.
Klaw:Maybin’s isn’t a bad contract.

DO: I’ve seen varying reports on Moncada’s timeline — some say not until 2017-2018. Is it possible that he could get to the big club at the end of 2016 (provided he gets to at least AA)?
Klaw:It’s the “provided he gets to at least AA” part that stops me. He’s not that advanced yet, and he might just get to AA and stop there in 2016. He didn’t tear the Sally League apart, and while I still rate him very highly as a prospect I have no tangible reason to forecast a big step forward in productivity (or just in approach) now.

Tito: Klaw, if you had to pick between Gleyber Torres and Franklin Barreto for the first 6 years of their major league careers is one a better choice than the other? Who has more offensive upside?
Klaw:Torres has more overall upside, Barreto has more of a now hit tool.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: What’s your opinion of Anthopolus trading the farm this past year?
Klaw:All good with me. You trade the farm to put your team in the playoffs. You don’t trade the farm to save your job or make a bad club mediocre.

Patrick: Will this Mets generation of pitchers redefine pitching for the next century?
Klaw:This pretty much never works out, right? Atlanta’s big 3 is the last example, and even they were the big 2 for a while when Smoltz got hurt and went to the pen.

Dave: Were you to be the GM of the Red Sox, what is the approach to adding pitching this offseason? One “ace” and fill out the rest with their in house options, or trade/sign 2 front line starters?
Klaw:Sign one, trade all this offensive depth for one.

Hugo Z: Melvin’s OPS in the first two months of his first season with Atlanta was .476. Those coaches must be fast workers.
Klaw:They altered his swing right away, that first spring training.

Jay: Sorry…but I lost track of your chats while moving and traveling for the past six months. I found this on FB…is this the place to look?
Klaw:All chats are here now. Click the “klawchat” tag below this post to get the archive of all of the past ones (I think this is the 9th one since we moved here).

Bob: In games 1 and 2 of the WS, the Mets seemed not to make pitching adjustments against KC. Only two Ks for each starter and the constant contact by Royals’ hitters eventually turned into runs. In game 5, Harvey seemed to make adjustments and pitched a shutout through 8 with 9Ks. Surely, advanced scouting had prepared them for the way that KC hits. Why were they unable to make those adjustments ahead of time? That may have been the key factor in the WS. Do you agree?
Klaw:I don’t agree. If it were that simple…

Tommy: Klaw I saw Harrison Bader hit some this season… He looks like he could be an impact hitter…Am I what you call a bad scout or does he look like a good hitter?
Klaw:I was not a big fan – saw a very stiff body and just adequate bat speed.

Jimmy: Dombrowski is talking about bringing Barnes in as a reliever in 2016. Is that a good move?
Klaw:Yep, two-pitch guy who throws a lot of strikes, should succeed there. But I also think he could have value as a starter for another team.

Allan: Would you skip High Desert with Luis Ortiz and Dillon Tate? Or would experience in that environment benefit them?
Klaw:It might help them the way Mark Watney’s experience helped him.

Fred: Is Miller for Karns an equal opportunistic swap for both parties involved? (No tread on the other guys)
Klaw:Seattle got the best guy (Karns). Rays filled two, possibly three smaller holes on the roster and had the depth to deal Karns. Seems reasonable for both sides, if not very significant.

JR: I realize you don’t watch much TV, but I would highly recommend adding Fargo Season 1 and Season 2 to your list – it’s a really, really good show.
Klaw:No interest. I didn’t love the movie … very well done and smart, but so grim and misanthropic.

AN: This is a few years old so you may have already read it: http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-curse-of-reading-and-forgetting I thought of how much you read in a given year while reading it and wondered whether you experienced forgetting something you’d read pretty recently given how much you read? Is it something that concerns you? Lastly, Span to the Mets make any sense?
Klaw:I keep (mentally) what I enjoy, and forget what I don’t. It’s not a system, but just how my head works. Span to the Mets might make sense on paper but if his medicals give the team any pause about him staying in CF I’d stay away.

George: Another Nats prospect: Victor Robles. What are your thoughts on him?
Klaw:Haven’t seen but have gotten rave reports. I wrote a sentence or two on him in the Future Power Rankings.

Rob: What would the White Sox need to give up to get Profar (assuming he’s possibly available).
Klaw:I don’t believe he’s available at all, but if he were, hypothetically, I’d probably ask for Rodon (and expect to be shot down).

Michael: If the Jays made Osuna a starter, how quickly do you think he could get back to the big leagues?
Klaw:Midyear? I think the year closing would prove to be very valuable experience, but I would also be ultra-cautious in stretching him back out. That’s a great arm that has already blown out once.

Ray: How many “scout wanna be’s” do you see when you are scouting? Are there people that want to be a scout traveling the country or just local games?
Klaw:Not that many. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be a scout, certainly, but yes, I do see folks who are trying to play the role.

Casey: Did you get a chance to take a look at Chad Pinder and/or Renato Nunez? Thoughts?
Klaw:Pinder looked like a 4A guy. Nunez still has a chance to be an everyday player thanks to the pop.

Roy: Was it a mistake for me to pre-order an Anderson Espinoza Jersey last week??
Klaw:Nah, you should be good.

Steve: Enjoyed the Top 50, as I do every year. Quick questions: Assuming no Maeda because we don’t know if he’ll be posted? And do you not think David Freese is worth even a few million dollars on a one-year deal?
Klaw:What little info I have made me think he won’t be posted. There are a lot of guys who didn’t make the 50 but would be worth that 1 year/$3 million or so hypothetical offer I suggested.

Ben: Any thoughts on Peet’s buying up Intelligentsia?
Klaw:It’ll be in the Saturday links post (and they only bought a majority share).

Gus: Keith, this year will be the first that I am deep frying a turkey for Thanksgiving. Have you done so before and do you have any tips/recommendations (aside from defrosting the turkey)?
Klaw:Yeah. Get a good fire extinguisher and don’t do this anywhere near the house. I’ve never done it because I don’t want to burn anything down.

Mark: You have mentioned many times how the Jays’ shortening of Sanchez’s stride has resulted in higher effort and less command. Two questions, 1) why do you think they made the change and 2) does this make it less likely for him to be a viable starter long term?
Klaw:I don’t know if they did it or he did it, and I really don’t know why he hasn’t changed it. You don’t see short-stride starters stay healthy.

smith: Eduardo Rodriguez. Possible #1, 2? something else?
Klaw:It’s ace stuff. I think he will get there in time.

Bob: Who makes a good scout? Former players? Former coaches? Or just people with good observational skills? I doubt that I could do it, but I’m not sure what kind of mind works.
Klaw:I think good observational skills, critical thinking, and an understanding of the vagaries of “the game” are all key. You don’t have to have played, but of course I’ll say that as someone who probably couldn’t turn on a 40 mph fastball.

Mike P.: If Alfaro doesn’t stay at catcher, where could you see him playing? I’ve heard “too athletic for 1B” a couple of times – so I’m just curious where else you could see him playing?
Klaw:I’d put him in right field. He’s still not that great a receiver.

Kevin: A couple years ago you had Montreal Robertson as a sleeper for the Tigers. He is older now (26 I believe) but seems to had a bit of a comeback after a very rough minor league start. Have you seen him at all and think he still has a shot as an effective bullpen arm in the next couple seasons?
Klaw:Saw him, great great stuff, below-average command.

Michael: Do you ever read a book, such as a classic, just because you think you should read it? Plenty of classics imo are boring (see Moby Dick and A Tale of Two Cities), but I still feel somewhat obligated to read them.
Klaw:I’ve read a ton of them – I was going to say “most” but I don’t know what the actual total list would be – and some turned out to be shockingly good (Return of the Native, Middlemarch) while some were abysmal (Moby Dick, An American Tragedy).

Andy: One of the things that I noticed most about Kang in spring training and from reading about him in Korea, he had really good power to right center. Does Park have that or is he all pull power?
Klaw:Looks like more pull power.

Owen: In response to Gus about the turkey; heat your oil to 400 degrees before (slowly) lowering the turkey in – that will keep the skin crisp and non-greasy. I fry one every year.
Klaw:Thanks. BTW, I assume “Gus” was a reference to Delirious. It’s my house…

Joel: It seems almost inevitable that Grienke goes back to the dodgers but don’t the Giants have to be involved if nothing else but to drive up the price the dodgers have to pay?
Klaw:Every team that is near contention and needs a starter should be involved. So, not the Mets, but every other contender.

Tom: I understand the need to be patient but for a big market team with a much improved farm system when do you think it’s advantageous for the Phillies to go for it in free agency? Not trading prospects but make moves that get them closer to an 80 win non embarrassment as they wait for the kids. This offseason or 2017?
Klaw:Be opportunistic now, “go for it” after 2017 probably when more of the kids have arrived and started to establish themselves.

Jack: Cecchini/Herrera middle infield by the All Star Break?
Klaw:I like Cecchini, but if his throwing doesn’t get to be more consistent they’ll hesitate to hand him the shortstop job. He’s definitely feeling for the ball a little bit.

JR: In 2012 when you wrote your “re-draft of the 2002 draft” (one of my favorite annual columns, btw), you wrote something to the effect that Kazmir was done (not criticizing as that was the common view at the time). How impressive has his comeback been these last few seasons? He’s gone from being toast to being on your top free agent rankings and will be getting one more nice payday. Impressive.
Klaw:Absolutely unbelievable – and a great story. BTW, that’s a completely fair criticism. I said he was done, and he wasn’t. I don’t feel bad about that mistake, because how on earth would I have foreseen it … but holy cow, he’s remade himself completely AND seems to have gotten over some chronic arm problems too.

Ray: Alex Verdugo: org guy, avg big leaguer or future all star?
Klaw:Huge beta. If he’s a big leaguer he’s probably an above-average one (or more).

Tom: When teams sign players in their 30s to 7-10 year contracts, is their logic that they are paying a total sum rather than thinking they’re going to get actual value from the players in the last few years of the contract?
Klaw:Yes, but they can’t even think of it as “logic,” right? Those deals don’t work out and often you’re fired or gone before the deal even hits the midpoint. Jack Z won’t be around for years 3-10 of Cano, and DiPoto will have that but won’t have years 6-10 of Pujols

Gus: Would you say that deGrom was the Mets best starter this year, Harvey will probably be the best in 2016 but Thor has the potential to be the best of the 3?
Klaw:I think that’s a reasonable possibility, but if you asked me which guy I think provides the most total value over the next five years I’d take Harvey.

Michael: You are outspoken about violence against women. How do you view a person like Patrick Kane after his accuser refused to go forward with the case and there isn’t too much public evidence?
Klaw:My personal opinion is that the vast majority of rape accusations are true (the false accusation rate isn’t known precisely but is somewhere under 5%), rapes are underprosecuted to begin with and are difficult to prove, so in any specific case I’m more likely to assume guilt than innocence. To put it another way, I think the guy walking around two weeks ago at Epcot in a Patrick Kane jersey (while charges were still possible) was being an asshole..

Andy: So Clippard pitched 32 innings of perfectly fine relief ball for the Mets and 7 innings of poor relief in the playoffs. It’s odd there were people arguing that trading a pitching prospect for that wasn’t overpaying.
Klaw:You said it, not me. 0.2 rWAR, too.

Rob K: Mets added Josh Smoker to the 40 man. Possible he starts the year in the big league pen?
Klaw:Another great story, BTW. I assume it’s a possibility entering spring training, depending on how he pitches.

Sean: No Aoki or Byrd in the FA rankings, were their options declined too late to be ranked, or neither made your top 50?
Klaw:Neither made it. Aoki would have fit, Byrd no.

Ray: Who has the better career: Nick Williams or Brett Phillips?
Klaw:I’ll take Phillips. Big fan of that toolset and makeup.

Bob: If Shapiro trades major league talent to restock the farm, then he is not only repudiated AA’s work, but is punting on 2016. They were so close in 2015. I think I would be upset if I were a Toronto fan.
Klaw:Absolutely you should be. This process was poorly handled from the start.

Chris: Is Mickey Jannis any good? I’m hoping he has some Dickey in him!
Klaw:I didn’t think so – but knuckleballer development is like quantum entanglement. Even people who understand that stuff don’t always know exactly how it works.

Kevin:
What moves would you make to help improve the Padres? Is there hope in the near term?
Klaw:Get a shortstop and a centerfielder, get some balance in the lineup, either play Hedges or send him to AAA every day, see if you can trade Shields for a few (lesser) individual pieces and try to develop some of your own starters again since your home environment is so favorable.

Michael: It was a long time ago, but did you get a sense that any of the corporate suits at Rogers knew anything about baseball? That’s my fear as a Jays fan…
Klaw:No but they left us – really, Paul Godfrey and JP Ricciardi, not me – alone.

Adam: Is Pierce Johnson destined for bullpen duty?
Klaw:IMO yes.

Corey: Gordon worth giving up the 12th pick if you’re Boston? and then including JBJ in a trade for pitching ?
Klaw:I hate giving up draft picks … but if you’re going to give one up, maybe do it for a top-end starter? That seems like a bigger need.

Kevin: Does Michael Fulmer have a #1 starter ceiling, or is that a bit bullish?
Klaw:I think a #2 is more realistic.

Franklin: Do you see S.F.’s refusal to pick up the options on both Aoki and Byrd a sign that they are going to be in the market for a bat like J. Upton or Heyward?
Klaw:I read it as a recognition that neither guy was likely to be worth the cost. Byrd especially seems to me like a guy who’s nearly out of value.

Anthony: I was surprised to see that Soria didn’t make your Top 50 Free Agents list. Is he really not a better player than Rich Hill?
Klaw:Soria was down across the board this year – stuff and results. I gave him a lot of consideration but couldn’t put him in the top 50. I think I was quite clear on what Rich Hill is (or, that we have no freaking idea what he is).

Ian: Have you read Kenji Lopez Alt’s article on spatchcocking a Turkey? Having successfully tried that approach with a chicken, I would imagine its equally as impressive with a turkey. Have you tried anything similar?
Klaw:No but I think I’m going to do this for Thanksgiving now, since I am feeding more people than usual and will want more empty oven time.

Esau: Carson Fulmer, Dillon Tate, Blake Snell, Sean Newcomb. What order would you rank them as future starters?
Klaw:Snell, Newcomb, Tate. Fulmer is a very very likely reliever for me. Yes, I’ve said the same on others who made it as starters … but I still can’t believe that high-effort delivery and lack of command is going to work in the rotation.

Scott: The Padres had Trea Turner………………..ugh!!!!!!
Klaw:Yes, yes they did. That’s all for this week. Our chat has ended, let us go in peace. I’ll see you all next Thursday (most likely).