Klawchat 4/21/16.

Klaw: Klawchat. Making no compromise with the public taste.

Jim J: Were you able to see Will Benson last week? Thoughts on him and/or teammate Rankin Woley?
Klaw: Yes, I am going to write up the six HS kids I saw in the last week at some point today or tomorrow. Benson is very physically gifted, but the swing needs work and I think both he and Lowe were too high on my last top 50.

Hank: What is your opinion on Vincent velasquez? Future number 2?
Klaw: I’d probably say less than that, given the inconsistency of the breaking ball for his entire career and the lack of any track record of durability. A number 3, an above-average starter who maybe gives you fewer innings than you want, that’s probably more like it.

Ed: If Rio Ruiz continues his strong year at AAA, can he be a starting 3B on a quality team?
Klaw: Sure, but the question is whether his strong two-weeks-does-not-a-year-make is real or SSS.

Todd: After seeing Pint do you think he will be available to the Padres at 8? Or is he for sure a top 5 pick?
Klaw: I think better than 50/50 he gets to 8. People who assume his velocity makes him a top 5 pick are a bit out of date – velocity alone doesn’t lock you into the top 5.

Jeff: Rakim at Union Transfer in Philly, July 14th. Performing the entire Paid in Full album. That is all.
Klaw: Oh I’ve had my ticket since the presale. You can’t get stuck with the steps.

Shawn: Saw that Yusniel Diaz has three straight games with homers and has a trio of triples on the young season. Is this type of power unexpected from him? Reports I’ve read had him as more of a speed/ contact guy. Obviously small sample is in play but just wanted your thoughts.
Klaw: Electric wrists. I had heard high-average medium-power over the winter, but I could see him ending up with surprising power in the McCutchen mold because his wrists are so quick.

Ivan: Thank you for doing the chats here. I missed them for a while after they stopped on ESPN. Speaking of ESPN, and I understand if you don’t feel comfortable speaking about this, but what is your take on the recent firing of Curt Shilling? I BTW agree with their decision. Free speech doesn’t mean that you are free from the consequences of what you say.
Klaw: I support the company’s decision completely, and that’s really all I can or should say about it.

Maribel: Is your take on Schilling hypocritical? You seem to cut him a little slack since you know he’s a good guy, but vilify someone like Andrew Shaw who said something totally wrong, but you come across as if he shouldn’t be forgiven.
Klaw: A number of people said this yesterday. It is inaccurate, and it is not very smart.

Eric: Have you heard a reason for why the Jays seem to have started a lot of their guys a level lower that expected (Harris, SRF in LowA, Greene in high-A, etc).
Klaw: Yes, but nothing that satisfied me. I think it sends a brutal message to players. The weather up here is fine, if that was an excuse for leaving Greene in Florida. Harris might be less advanced than expected on draft day, but the FSL is fairly pitcher-friendly, and if he’s not ready to pitch there as a sandwich pick out of college, then you probably picked the wrong guy.

Brian: Early season thoughts on Aaron Sanchez? Toronto announcers highlight “improved delivery”. This has long been one of your stated concerns for Aaron. Have you seen a change (i.e. lengthened stride)? Thanks.
Klaw: Can’t tell off TV angles. I’ve looked, but the CF camera angle is brutal for this.

Jameson Taillon: Do I still have a future in MLB?
Klaw: Yes, absolutely.

Josh: Keith, I know that it is early in the season and he is old for his level, but when you consider the final half of last season and his start to this season, has Andrew Knapp answered any of the questions you have about his ability to consistently hit major league pitching?
Klaw: Not really. It’s not like he’s faced major-league pitching.

Cooker: Have you ever been to Mario Batalys eataly stores? Chicago one is yyyyyuuuuugggggeeeee!
Klaw: The NYC one is amazing. I could easily have gotten lost in there fora few hours.

Francisco: Better hitter Zach Collins or Senzel ?
Klaw: Senzel. Does it easier, better approach. Collins has some swing issues, not huge ones, but Senzel doesn’t really have any.

Craig: Just wanted to say thank you for demonstrating a basic principle of civility: you can disagree with a co-worker’s actions/beliefs, agree with your employer’s decision to terminate the co-worker’s contract and still value the friendship that you had with the co-worker. This used to be the norm. Reading your Twitter replies yesterday was pretty depressing.
Klaw: Thank you for saying so and understanding fully what I said.

James: Coming into today, Max Kepler has three ABs in his last seven games. He’s even fallen behind Oswaldo Arcia (ugh) for fourth outfielder duties. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Twins to let Kepler get his PAs in Rochester and bring up someone like Mastroianni as the OF5 instead?
Klaw: Yes, it would have. I don’t really know what’s going on.

Christopher: When watching a pitching prospect face a hitting prospect, how do you handle trying to scout both of them during the same at bat?
Klaw: Focus more on the hitter. I can watch the pitcher face the other eight guys in the lineup, and for a hitter it’s more important to focus on what might be the only good pitching he faces all spring.

Jed: Why does Terry Collins only pinch hit for Conforto against lefties? Curtis Granderson has a career OBP south of .300 against lefties, plus he does developing. Why not sit him occasionally instead of Conforto?
Klaw: Because Terry Collins seems to hate relying on young players. It’s stupid. His antics this year make me wonder if we all overrated him last year because the team played so well down the stretch.

Bill: Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you’ve stated that you do not think draft picks should be connected to free agent signings. Do you think teams losing free agents should be compensated in another way?
Klaw: You could simply award such teams draft picks without penalizing the signing clubs.

Keith: Do you know what other international players the Braves are targeting for this July besides Maitan, Yunior Severino and Abrahan Gutierrez? Thanks
Klaw: No idea, and other than Cuban players who might have quicker impact in the minors I don’t follow the July 2nd market. If you ever took an econ course and learned how imperfect information can screw up a marketplace, well, Exhibit A.

Kevin: Certainly there are some serious questions about what “correct” or even “good” mechanics are for pitchers but is there any flaw you see in amateur guys that cause you to completely lose interest or doubt their ability to develop or stay healthy?
Klaw: Not a big fan of players with head violence in their deliveries, or deliveries that are very arm-heavy (using too little of their legs for power). I try not to flat-out kill guys like that – for example, I had Carson Fulmer and Chris Sale ranked in the top ~50 in their draft years, too low for Sale of course but not a “no interest” ranking at all – just to rank them lower.

LarryA: You’ve posted a few very convincing anti-anti-fat articles recently, but Ive also read some just as convincing articles from the other side. How are we non-scientists supposed to know what to eat anymore?
Klaw: Eat lots of plants. And then eat whatever else makes you happy.

Al: Would a team have to intentionally (before the season even) design the roster to have a bullpen throw ~650 innings? I ask because I dont think any Orioles starter should appear in the 6th inning…but couldnt figure a way to get 650 IPs out of their RPs. TY! (you’re the best)
Klaw: Yes, I think that’s about right – and I think the Cubs did so without actually planning to get 600+ innings from their pen. Two long men would do it.

Bruce: What caused you to rank Archie Bradley so highly a few years ago, and do you think he ever reaches those projected levels?
Klaw: Used to have a plus fastball and 70 breaking ball with size and a good delivery. Stuff has backed up a little post-shoulder issues, changeup never really developed, command hasn’t been even average. I would put him in the bullpen now, and revisit starting later after he’s had success in the shorter role.

Andres A.: Klaw. Be a GUY and rank these 3 albums: “AM” by Arctic Monkeys, “An Awesome Wave” by Alt-J and “The Bones of What You Believe” by Chvrches.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Fonz: Have you heard any reports on RHP from Pitt TJ Zeuch?
Klaw: Yes, sounds like third round likely, good chance for second. Bad year for college pitching so some guys will go a round higher than their stuff and/or results merit. Missing four starts early this season hasn’t helped.

Sam: I see you were out to see Riley Pint this week. Did you notice anyone representing the Phillies there ?
Klaw: I think every team was there. It was a chance to get Pint and Joey Wentz in one day, so of course just about every team was present. The Phillies had at least three guys there, but all left Pint’s start after an inning to go to Wentz. I have said before I don’t believe they’re taking a HS arm at 1 and I absolutely don’t believe it would be Pint if they did.

John: Kyle Hendricks – I can’t get a grip on what he is – AAAA type guy or useful part of MLB rotation. Your thoughts….
Klaw: Useful part of MLB rotation.

Fonz: HI Keith, have you read anything recently that will make the next version of your top 100/101, etc.?
Klaw: Infinite Jest and All the Light We Cannot See.

A: Hey klaw, can you clear up draft-eligible sophomores? I see MLB’s official rules say “or are at least 21 years old”, but when do they have to be 21 by? I thought draft day but then I noticed drafted sophomore Benintendi turned 21 a month afterwards.
Klaw: 45 days after the end of the draft. Stupid rule – just make them eligible every year.

Tyler: Is there any historical precedent of a pitcher being able to sustain long-term success/health throwing a slider at the velocity and rate (around 25%) that Syndergaard is? Maybe he’s a freak and he will keep this up but do you see him being able to sustain that pitch at that velocity that long?
Klaw: No, but there isn’t much historical precedent for the velocity around the game in general, is there?

Satya: Blake Rutherford’s old for a HS senior, but where would he rank in this draft based on his tools a year ago?
Klaw: Still think he’d be top 10. The issue with the age of a HS position player is that he’s older than his competition, which I think makes gauging the hit tool in particular difficult – can he really hit, or is he just beating up younger kids? In Rutherford’s case, the hit tool is definitely there. You’d just have to believe he’ll have enough pitch recognition to start 2017 in low-A.

Anthony: So Prince is dead. Thoughts? I think Prince is one hell of a musician, very interesting for his stance on technology, and all around a cool dude.
Klaw: I don’t know if there’s been a more talented musician in pop music in my lifetime – musicianship, versatility, lyrical cleverness, sense of melody. I don’t think much of his work after the first name change (post-Diamonds and Pearls), but his 14-15 year peak is the GOAT for me.

JD: If you worked for Colorado, what skill set would you look for or develop in pitchers? How do you like Hoffman’s chances of success at Coors?
Klaw: The one thing I wouldn’t do is what they seem to be doing now – collecting a lot of guys who throw hard but straight without deception. Gray wasn’t like that in college but he is now. Hoffman is like that. I don’t think it works there, not that there’s an easy formula. Perhaps it’ll turn out that guys with especially high spin rates fare better in Denver, to throw one thing out there.

Lucas Magalhaes: I know you are not surprised at all, but what you call us about Kevin Newman start?
Klaw: Doing what I thought he’d do – making a ton of good contact. Surprised he hasn’t tried to steal more bases, although it’s just 13 games.

Jack: Is Jake Bauers someone whose swing or approach is going to keep him from getting the power needed to be an above average corner player on a good team?
Klaw: Yes. Don’t foresee power, defense probably only works at first base.

Jack: Can Buxton work out his K issues in the majors or will he need to head back down?
Klaw: I’d rather see him play every day in the majors and work his way through it. Would also like to see them leave him alone at the plate – let him work this out, don’t start trying to change anything about his swing or approach, which I’ve heard secondhand has been going on in the clubhouse.

Rahim: In a recent chat, you mentioned that the A’s were interested in Senzel? Is this more of a true reflection of his standing in this class or more indicative of Oakland’s preference for “safer” high ceiling players?
Klaw: I’ve heard they are very much on him and to some extent on Zach Collins.

Dan: The insane 2018 FA class will (as of now) include Harper, Machado, Donaldson, McCutchen, Fernandez, Harvey and potentially Price and Heyward, among many others. With a couple dozen high-end free agents available and a finite amount of cash that teams will spend, would it make sense for some of those players so sign extensions in the next year to avoid sitting in a buyer’s market? Or should they take their chances on a big payday in the 2018 winter?
Klaw: Someone in that group will sign an extension, perhaps after a trade. I believe Harper, Fernandez, and Harvey are all Boras clients, who typically don’t sign extensions. Certainly Fernandez and Harvey should consider it as pitchers who’ve already had one TJ apiece. (Not one together, that would be weird.)

Chaz: What’s your favorite Prince song? He was the G.O.A.T. as far as mainstream music superstars as far as I’m concerned.
Klaw: I actually ranked my favorite Prince songs in a 2009 dish post.

Nick: What are your thoughts on Kaprielian’s velocity spike. Seems like he is holding it deeper into games. *If* it holds, what is his ceiling?
Klaw: Good number two starter. I already was a big believer in the feel for pitching and command.

Ty: Did Pint or Wentz do anything to cause you to consider moving them up/down in your rankings?
Klaw: I’ll slide Pint down a few notches next time around, nothing huge, but 96-100 is not sufficient by itself to put him over guys with more developed repertoires like Wentz or Garrett.

Lorne: What are your thoughts on who the Braves grab at #3 this year in the draft?
Klaw: I’d still bet on Corey Ray or Senzel if one is there.

Jeff Mac: What’s this early season success for Tyler White mean?
Klaw: It means he can hit, just as we thought he could this offseason.

Matt: After reading today of a DE HS student being assaulted and killed, it goes to show how horrible the violence in Wilmington has become (inside and outside of schools). Would you ever send your child to public school in the area or opt for private education?
Klaw: My daughter’s in a charter school. I would prefer not to go the private education route. That murder was in a downtown HS, by the way, not our district. Downtown Wilmington has some very rough areas. The economic gap between city residents and suburban residents a few miles away is enormous.

Aaron: Any idea why the Brewers recalled Alex Presley and not Michael Reed?
Klaw: Probably to give Reed more reps in CF before he comes up.

Jack: Is Harper approaching the Bonds territory of “Just walk the damn guy in every high leverage situation?”
Klaw: It was a bad strategy against Bonds and I think it’s a bad one now too.

Sam: Who was the better prospect: Orlando Arcia or Alcides Escobar? And why? Seem to be pretty similar players.
Klaw: Not remotely similar. Arcia can hit, has plate discipline, has a little power, and is a great makeup guy with leadership. Escobar is none of that.

Scott: Is Jason Groome your leading candidate to go #1 to the Phillies? What do you see as his upside if so?
Klaw: No, I think the Phillies want a college player – Ray, Senzel, Puk now that he’s healthy, Lewis as a longshot. If they go HS bat, Moniak would be the most likely pick.

Marty in Seneca: What was your evaluation of Seth Beer coming out of high school last year?
Klaw: He didn’t come out of high school last year. He left in December to matriculate early so that as a college junior he’ll be the same age as his classmates. Smart move.

Michael: Looks like Blair could be starting Sunday for the Braves……he was ready to start the year in this rotation. You see him being a peak Brandon Webb type??
Klaw: I think he has some Brandon Webb to him. Groundballs and strikeouts without a lot of walks. We like that.

JR: Have you seen Chvrches live? If so, how was it? I’m seeing them tonight for first time and super excited.
Klaw: Yes, in 2013, outstanding live show. They didn’t play “I Would Die 4 U” that night, but I sincerely hope they do so for you tonight.

Dave: How was Kenosha yesterday? I can wait for the write up on Lux but how were the food choices?
Klaw: I ate in Chicago, drove to Kenosha, drove back to Chicago, ate again, flew home.

Dave: How impressed are you with Groome? Do you see the Kershaw comparisons ?
Klaw: “How impressed are you…” Well, Dave, I’m totally unimpressed! I never know what to do with those questions, even when I’m asked live on air. I can tell you what I think, but how do I tell you how impressed I was? Also, I like Groome, best player in the draft when it comes to what’s on the field, but he is not Kershaw.

Brad: Chances Anderson or Garrett move into the top 5 for the draft?
Klaw: My bet is that I’ll have 6-7 prep arms in my top 15, but only 3 will be drafted in the top 10 because teams will back off and choose the perceived safety of other players.

Andrew: Lunhow, in a quest to squander the future in order to bolster a just-OK team in 2015, got rid of Santana and (worse) Brett Phillips (and just gave Deshields away). Who plays in the OF in Houston other than Springer after this year, which is on its way to being disappointing? I don’t see any solutions in the minors…
Klaw: OK, that’s a bit rough. Phillips was in the Gomez/Fiers deal. DeShields had stopped playing hard for Houston, so while they should have protected him, I can understand why they gave up. Santana is probably just an extra outfielder in the long run despite the hot start.

Lucky Chang: Your take on the Adrian Beltre extension and where Texas goes from here? 2/36 seems very reasonable, but they pretty much have to move Prince or Choo this offseason (while eating some of the money), right?
Klaw: I think they have to move or bench one or both of those guys to make room for better players. Nomar has already shown a good enough approach that they should consider letting him play the rest of the year in the majors even with the likely ups and downs.

Michael: Obviously what Andrew Shaw said is wrong, but isn’t it possible that some people who use those types of words are simply uneducated, ignorant, or misinformed? That doesn’t necessarily make them bigoted.
Klaw: I find it very, very hard to believe that any adult in 2016 could use that word without being aware of its nature. Analogies of slurs are imperfect, but it’s like saying someone could use the n-word like that without being bigoted.

Joel: Have you met Amanda Hopkins, the first female scout? I think she’s with the Mariners.
Klaw: Not yet, because she’s covering the four corners area which happens to be awful this year for the draft.

Lee: How quickly do Moncada and Benintendi move through the Boston system? They are both dominating in Salem and probably need a bigger challenge.
Klaw: Again, it’s two weeks. Both are great prospects but there’s no reason to rush them up rather than letting them see some teams and pitchers twice to see if they struggle the second time around or continue raking. Mid- to late May would be fine.

Mike: Any sense as to whether Tyler White can handle 3B in MLB if Reed hits his way into a promotion?
Klaw: I think no chance.

forever it: Anderson Espinoza was quoted as saying he hopes to be in the big leagues by next year. Realistic?
Klaw: Love the ambition but that would shock me. I also can picture Dombrowski trading him at the break because he’s only 18 and figuring he’s a few years away.

Anonymous: What’s going on with Brady Aiken? Is he back to playing? Seems like been more than enough time for TJ surgery
Klaw: Throwing bullpens. Only been 13 months since TJ. That’s on the quick side for a return to pitching in games.

Tim: What would you project as Brendan Rodgers MLB debut year?
Klaw: September 2018.

Michael: You mention getting better angles when watching prospects. Just curious. I almost never see pro scouts moving around or sitting down the first base or third base side. They stick behind home plate.
Klaw: This is true. I tend to move around more. It helps that I’ve never liked sitting still anyway.

Joe: What did you think of Spacca? I live a few blocks over and it’s one of my favorites.
Klaw: Very good. Got the bufalina pizza and the insalata mista. All very simple and very well done. Crust was maybe a little doughier than I’m used to, but not in a bad way.

Steve. Texas: 2 Economics questions. What are your feelings on protectionism and the female/male wage gap?
Klaw: Hate protectionism. Free trade does create some “losers” but the net benefit to trading partners is positive. The gender pay gap is much smaller than people claim it is – more on the order of 5% – but does seem to be real.

Kevin: Is Austin Allen a legitimate prospect or is he just old for the level? I know it’s a small sample but he’s been tearing it up.
Klaw: Way old for the level. Fringe prospect for me.

Andy: I live in Ben Rortvedt’s home town. 10-15 scouts a game are there. Is that normal? That seems an awful lot of people traveling to an area where there are not many other prospects around.
Klaw: It’s because he’s good. That’s about normal. Lux and Johnson are in the same general area anyway.

smdc: Always enjoy your work, and appreciate the blend of baseball talk and literary crit. We hear a lot about ‘tools’ in baseball, and I’m curious if you’ve ever thought about authors in the same way? If yes what would be the 5 tools of writing, and who might be a true 5 tool author?
Klaw: I judge books on three main criteria – plot, prose, and personas (characters, but I wanted the alliteration). Fitzgerald is three 8s for me.

Adam: Other than Hansen and Funkhouser, who else has damaged their draft stock horribly?
Klaw: Buddy Reed. Avery Tuck. Austin Bergner.

Edwin: Do you enjoy utilizing your platform as a public persona to make yourself sound superior to others? Seems like it.
Klaw: I don’t think I’m superior to anyone. I use my platform to express opinions and, I hope, draw some attention to causes that matter to me. That’s hardly making myself “superior” to anybody; my fundamental belief is that we are all equal.

Matt: If the phillies decided to go below-slot in order to go overslot in the 2nd round, any idea who they might be able to get in the 2nd a la daz cameron last year?
Klaw: Not yet but we should know some names in a couple of weeks. Daz was a perfect storm – famous, well-off, good but not great, Boras client.

Rian: has rio ruiz done anything in the early going to make you optimistic? or even improve your outlook on him
Klaw: I’m hopeful, but I can’t bank on any player’s hot or cold start after just 14 games.

Randy: Think Mark Appel still has the potential to crack the phils rotation?
Klaw: I’ve never really doubted him as a starter.

Brad: What’s the hardest position to scout?
Klaw: Catcher. Hard to get a good read on his defensive abilities while watching the game.

Jim: Why is it worse to say a bad word about a person than it is to kill an animal and eat it for your enjoyment?
Klaw: Because bad words taste like shit.

Anonymous: Vaccines are good. But why should we eliminate a person’s right to choose to be injected with a substance? And the “good for the population argument” can be taken to other extremes I know you would not be in favor of.
Klaw: It’s actually not that person’s right, but the child’s right. You can do really stupid stuff to yourself, but not to your kid.

Jon: Keith – You’ve spoken openly about your anxiety here, and in other forums before so I had a question to you about that. Did you find out you suffered from anxiety before your daughter was born, and if so, how did/do you cope with thought that she may too one day? My wife is expecting our first baby this summer, and although I don’t suffer from depression and anxiety, I have a family history of it. One of the many thoughts i’ve had since we found out she was pregnant was what if our daughter is afflicted with it too? Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
Klaw: I’ve always had it but was diagnosed with it when my daughter was six and began treatment then. I wouldn’t worry about your daughter now – if she’s going to get it, it will be several years down the road, and for now you should focus on loving her and caring for her and helping her grow up emotionally healthy.

Rob: My daughter just turned 11 and loves to read. I enjoy reading to her at night before bed. Could you recommend a book or two? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Try Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series, although he ended book 3 with a cliffhanger and keeps delaying book 4, the slacker.

Danny: Aaron Sanchez, still no?
Klaw: It’s not “no,” it’s “we don’t know.”

Joe: Does Groome being suspended hurt his stock ?
Klaw: No, not at all. It’s just stupid. Parochial people are parochial, film at 11.

Ryan: Why does MLB require a four year college player to stay in school three years? What would MLB lose by allowing players to be drafted whenever they’re ready?
Klaw: My understanding is that the rule was enacted to help college baseball. I say screw college baseball. It’s not like they’ve stopped overusing pitchers to help MLB, so why should MLB go out of its way to help them?

Aubrey: Do you still believe CJ Nitkowski was shaming based on gender? If you’re less convinced, do you still believe calling him out publicly was fair? I interacted with you on twitter yesterday, and I disagree that it was gender based, and was intended as an age joke. But I did appreciate the opportunity to re-think my potential biases there (Which forced you to “block me” for being civil on twitter, haha)
Klaw: I will unblock anyone who asks. I blocked and muted a lot of people yesterday because of the volume of invective I was getting. It was particularly nasty after my tweet about ESPN’s decision, which was somewhat shocking to me, but then again Twitter is a cesspool so I shouldn’t be shocked. So, if I did block you just put your username in the comments below.

Doug: Do you still think Swihart is Boston’s catcher of the future?
Klaw: I do, or at least I think he’s someone’s catcher of the future. Probably 20 teams just praying Dombo calls them for a trade.

Dan: Hey Keith, I’m not far from you, in the Philadelphia suburbs. Have you found a trusted local place to buy legit San Marzano tomatoes? The online sources I’ve found don’t seem very reputable and I’m hesitant to buy from places I can’t verify given the high rate of counterfeiting.
Klaw: Whole Foods carries them.

Marshall: Alex Meyer is back to working as SP the Twins AAA affiliate (the way way way too early returns are good) is this the type of move you would have made or would you have advised to move him to RP to try to work on is c/c issues?
Klaw: The advantage of having him start is that he will have to face more LHB and face them more times, so he will have to work on the third pitch that has long eluded him. When I checked last night I think LHB are 2/18 with 8 K so far, which is at least the right direction.

Alex: In the name of irony and riffery, can you please share your preferred 4/20 stoner rock playlist. Let’s assume Sweat Leaf is a given.
Klaw: Just play Sleep’s Dopesmoker.

Kenny: Have you seen in person or heard from others about Jared Horn, a RHP from Napa? Seems to have a solid build, a low 90s FB, and some polish.
Klaw: Yes, not polished, better FB than that, very good athlete, football guy, should go in the 30-50 range, still trending upwards.

Toney: Thoughts on Cardinals “fans” yelling the N word at Heyward? Should MLB teams ban fans like Euro soccer clubs do?
Klaw: You’re in that stadium under certain terms and conditions; you have no right to be there. The stadium authority can ban anyone at any time for basically any reason. Yelling horrendous slurs at players – and in the hearing of fans who may also be similarly targeted by those slurs – is a good reason.

Sameer A.: This may be a silly question, but what is the discernible difference (if any) when scouts/analysts refer to a pitcher’s command versus his control. Are those two terms generally synonymous or are they describing different things?
Klaw: They are different things. Control is throwing strikes. Command is the more nebulous term covering throwing pitches where and how you want them. You throw that slider, but do you command it?

Hank: Do you think Newman gets promoted to AA when Cole Tucker returns? Newman is hitting and Tucker is working out in Extended Spring Training, way ahead of schedule.
Klaw: Not a bad idea, depends on when Tucker returns, no?

Michael: I work with a lot of kids who use bad words like what Shaw used. They don’t know what it means–they just say it to be mean. I think that applies to some adults too. They hear it and use it. But that doesn’t necessarily make them bigots.
Klaw: Shaw is not a child. You’re incredibly naive if you think an adult doesn’t know exactly what that word means and that it is not a word to use lightly or in public (or, in my opinion, ever).

Corbett: I went through a number of years dealing with severe anxiety. I’m mostly over it but found that many people around me didn’t understand or even care. Part of my recovery involved changing some of the people around me. Did you go through this also?
Klaw: No, but I was fortunate to have several people close to me, including my wife and Molly Knight, who had dealt with anxiety themselves.

Cccccccccchris: You think the phillies do not want to wait for a HS pitcher to develop or is it something else?
Klaw: I think the relative risk of a HS arm is steering them toward something else.

JR: Right now, who would you say is the 3rd best player in MLB behind Trout and Harper?
Klaw: Manny Machado.

Brian: Senzel to Atlanta at 3? I would lose my mind. A bad athlete who hits for average?
Klaw: Is he a bad athlete? Or just not a great athlete? Granted, I wouldn’t take him at 3 either.

Bishop: Saw a mock today where Brax Garrett was #1. Feasible?
Klaw: No, I don’t believe so. Again, I don’t think they want a prep arm at 1. He’s really good. He’s not 1-1 good, and he’s not “we’ll make an exception” good. But he’s really good, in case that wasn’t clear.

Chris (Chicago): 2 years ago I asked you about Brad Ausmus and his too conventional, conservative, and misguided decisions. After all, he’s a very smart guy. You said to give him time, because he was new to managing. Is it time?
Klaw: OH IT IS TIME.

Alex: I know you aren’t his biggest fan, but any connection with Atlanta and Kyle Lewis? He seems to fit their profile as a good athlete, Georgia kid, and he’s got something basically no one in the organization does — power.
Klaw: I know they’d love a college bat. He swings and misses a lot. Don’t see any benefit to him being a local kid.

Rob: Getting back to drafting the best player available. Damon Oppenheimer leans towards SoCal players. Does that mean he’s not drafting the best player available, or does that he believes playing in SoCal trumps other aspects?
Klaw: SoCal produces some of the best HS talent year-in and year-out. It is not the most productive area if you look at percentage of players drafted, but it is very productive at the bulk level.

Marco: Our presidential candidates all preach on how they will close the income gap. Is there even a logical way to do that?
Klaw: No, but it’s a great talking point, especially if you’re a Democrat and/or a populist.

Corbett: You seem to scout a lot on the east coast which makes sense due to the proximity of your home. Do you think that would bias your opinion towards those you’ve seen?
Klaw: No, I scout all over the country.

Andrew: I read somewhere that Brendan Rodgers may have a poor work ethic. Any truth to this?
Klaw: No. That seems like some bad rumormongering.

Devin Marconi: Your comment about the incomes of urban and suburban families of Wilmington being so different intrigued me. With all of the talk of income equality nationally, can we safely say that those who are at the bottom end are simply people who are too slow to adjust to economic opportunities? The biases that once permeated our society are largely perceived now and used as excuses for those who simply would rather not devote the time or effort to being a positive participant in our economy. Devising more subsidies for them completely flies in the face of tactics that would possibly narrow the income gap in a more permanent way.
Klaw: I think the education gap is the real cause. Our worst schools are in our poorest areas. Also in Mississippi.

Sam: How far along is Cal Quantrill in his recovery from TJ ?
Klaw: Sounds like he’ll appear in games within the next two weeks, after which Marquess will probably send him out there for a full nine innings and 149 pitches.

John: I have trouble wrapping my arms around the male/female wage gap issue. If a significant portion of the female population voluntarily leaves the work force for a number of years, how do you control for that? I’m not arguing “it’s their fault,” just trying to understand the statistical approach.
Klaw: The 5% number is after that adjustment. The numbers you hear Hillary and Bernie quote don’t reflect that fact.

Ready Gronzalez: Reasonable expectation for John Gant? Trade worth it for the Mets?
Klaw: Reliever, not a guy to lose a ton of sleep over for the Mets but a big leaguer.

John: I have a friend who was allergic to the MMR vaccine, causing her to lose her hearing. People need to get vaccinated to protect folks like my friend who are the rare exception that can’t be vaccinated.
Klaw: Yes, or to protect the five-year-old who lives near us and has an extremely rare, incurable autoimmune disorder that has prevented her from getting vaccinated for now because doctors don’t want to risk anything, even something as safe as a vaccine, triggering an immune response that could have serious consequences for her. You owe it to your children to get them vaccinated and you owe it to everyone else’s children too.

Hank: Why should ballparks be able to ban chewing tobacco while they sell people lite beer?
Klaw: I don’t know, it’s nanny-state nonsense.

Cruz Tomas: Let me add an addendum to your comment of us all being equal….we are all created equal, however, some are able to use their natural gifts more efficiently than others. Otherwise, we would have a society with equal outcomes, which is a liberal goal that can never be attained.
Klaw: I’d call that a socialist goal. It’s not a classical liberal goal at all. Liberalism means giving all of us the freedom and opportunities to use those gifts, not to predetermine outcomes or choose winners and losers.

Eddy Gongalblels: Do you think the Braves have any interest in Toronto’s Max Pentecost as a C prospect? What would they need to give up for him?
Klaw: He hasn’t played in nearly two years and there’s no reason to think he can catch right now.

John: So you don’t have a right to do stupid things to your kid… like abort it?
Klaw: You cannot abort your kid. You can abort a fetus, per a certain Supreme Court ruling from 1973.

James: Could a high school prospect give up his US citizenship, become a citizen of a central american country and be eligible to sign a contract without going through the draft? Just wondering.
Klaw: Sort of. It’s a little bit more complicated than you say to just give up citizenship, and if he’s not elite the current bonus caps might make it a negative ROI proposition anyway.

Jake: With anxiety, what helps you stay above the haters and trolls? Twitter has caused anxiety stacks in me multiple times.
Klaw: Blocking and muting. Every once in a while someone accuses me of being “thin-skinned” for the way I use those features. Go spend a few days having strangers swear at and insult you on Twitter and see how it goes.

Tom: Just to clarify an earlier question – the Jason Heyward story was never substantiated. The story was based on reported audio and then ESPN asked for it and they stated there was no audio. The story has never been taken down but the basis of the story does not exist. Heyward and other players for the Cubs said they never heard that horrendous word.
Klaw: Thanks. For the answer above, though, I believe a stadium can ban a fan for saying that word or the word Shaw used, or pretty much any reason they’d like.

Alex: I’m not saying there’s a benefit to Lewis being local to Atlanta. My point is that has meant something to the franchise in the past, whether it’s smart or not. And I agree that it’s not.
Klaw: OK, I understand. They do scout Georgia heavily, and the state is ridiculously loaded this year.

Charles: Don’t forget us in California. We spend more per student than any state in the national and consistently rank at or near the bottom in accomplishment.
Klaw: What if you adjust that for the portion of your state’s population that was born abroad or speaks something other than English at home? It’s much easier when your student base is all American-born and English-speaking.

Brett: When does the vaccine chat end and the baseball chat begin?
Klaw: When did anyone promise you a baseball chat?

Dave: Re: Machado as 3rd best player … Would you listen to an argument (untapped remaining upside, positionality, projected longevity) for him as #2 or even #1 for his entire career? And is Correa #4?
Klaw: Arenado would probably slip in over Correa. Machado’s argument over Trout/Harper is probably based on defense, and I don’t have quite that level of confidence in defensive metrics.

Pat: Best option for getting to the draft early is the Harper route, right? GED early, then a year at a JUCO.
Klaw: Yes. I have zero issues with this, but they are taking some risk.

Charles: Your twitter feed yesterday was depressing and shows a shocking lack of public knowledge about what free speech protections the First Amendment actually provides. Could you do a public service and explain it here?
Klaw: Why would I, when xkcd did it so well.

Cccccccccchris: Can someone tell Franco he doesn’t have to hit home runs every at bat?
Klaw: He’ll get there eventually. I think.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week’s overlong chat as I have to pick up my daughter at the bus stop. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. We’ll do this again next week.

Klawchat 4/13/16.

Klaw: How strange it is to be anything at all. Klawchat.

Ryan: You talked about swing and miss with Kyle Lewis. I know he has more BBs than Ks this year. Are you saying that’s because of competition?
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line there. You can swing and miss quite a bit and still walk a lot. And when scouts go see these players, they’re also looking at what the hitter does against better quality pitching. Lewis does play in a bad conference and hasn’t faced anything close to what the hitters in the SEC are facing.

Alex in Austin: In the past you seemed to be a proponent of Brian O’Connor and his program, yet after your most recent visit to Charlottesville it seems the sentiment has changed and you’re lower on Jones and Thaiss than others. What would you suggest the coaching staff do differently?
Klaw: I think he’s run a great college program, recruiting well, obviously winning games, and in general never overworked his arms. But over the last 4-5 years it seems like they’ve tried to imprint the same delivery on every pitcher, which 1) i don’t like because every player’s body is different and 2) the delivery they push appears to be less than mechanically sound.

John: Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?
Klaw: Top 5. Wouldn’t have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).

Pat: Usual caveats aside, but Kaprielian touching 97 and absolutely dominating in High A is a great sign. Temper my unparalleled excitement a bit please.
Klaw: If I temper your excitement, who’s going to temper mine?

Bill: With Rutherford being 19, do you think he might be able to move faster than the 18 year-old HS prospects?
Klaw: I do. This is the hope if you draft him. I understand the history of 19-year-old HS bats is poor, but in this class I don’t see any better HS hit tools.

Patrick: What to make of Dylan Bundy’s two appearances for the Orioles? He was a hot prospect a few years back, but injury had sapped a lot of the excitement around him.
Klaw: Stuff looks fine but it’s a durability question. He’s got calcification in his shoulder, and I have zero idea how well he can hold up or how much he can pitch. (Which isn’t to say he can’t; I’m saying I have absolutely no clue, because we lack precedents.)

Joe: You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?
Klaw: Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.

Paul: Klaw – saw your tweet about reading ‘Danny, The Champion of the World” to your daughter. I was a huge Dahl fan as a kid. Saw ‘The BFG’ is coming to the big screen and hoping it’s good; would like to get my niece into his books.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

David: I’m a Mets fan struggling to keep myself all calm and rational despite this early start…..oh, you mean I’m discussing Noah Syndergaard and his death slider??? Keith, i know it’s SSS but Syndergaard has 18 swings and misses on 45 sliders – how can one stay calm in the face of this? 🙂
Klaw: See my Kaprelian answer. Someone – Kurkjian maybe? – I work with picked Thor to win the CYA and that’s looking rather smart right now.

Uncle Ruckus: My Brew Crew have the 5th overall pick. What are the odds either SP Pint or Hansen are still available? I’m assuming Puk & Groome would already be taken. Or is a SS like Delvin Perez or any of the top shelf OFs so good that a team as loaded with young SS/OF talent as the Crew would pick one of them over a potential ace of the future? Thanks!
Klaw: Read my top 50 from the other day – Hansen is out of the rotation, Puk hasn’t really pitched in two weeks.

Tad Billows: I follow you pretty regularly and I am wondering what your thoughts are on the pitcher out of Pitt, named TJ Zeuch. The kid is 6’7″ tall, 225 lbs, sits 92-95 (topping out at 98), with a plus curve, avg to plus slider and a serviceable change up but I don’t recall you ever talking about him. I read from others that he is projected first or sandwich round. Sounds REALLY projectable. Thoughts?
Klaw: I’ve talked to scouts who’ve seen him and what you offered is not an accurate scouring report. What you described would probably be the odds-on 1-1 favorite.

Todd: Who are you most excited about in the A’s system and why?
Klaw: Barreto, because he’s the best prospect (duh?).

Matthew: Is Trace Thompson just a 4OF or can he see regular playing time here on out. Kendrick is apparently a possibility to see OF work too now so wondering how you think that plays out.
Klaw: I think he has a chance to be a regular. Not a lock, but enough defense + power to get there even if he strikes out too much.

Joey (Oakland): i had no idea how bad Khris Davis’ plate discipline is. He looks awful right now. Please tell me this is just early season bias and he’ll get better?
Klaw: He’s produced more than I expected the last two years but you identified the reason I thought he’d peak as a fourth OF. He has power, but as a hitter … I wouldn’t say he ‘can’t hit’ but his approach ranges from not good to lousy.

Craig: Do you see the Brewers taking a high-ceiling, low-floor player (college or HS) with the #5 pick?
Klaw: No. I see them taking best player available because that’s what Ray Montgomery has done in every draft he’s ever overseen as a scouting director. And if you look at his track record you should be very very fine with this.

Maddon: Contreras is continuing to rake at AAA. I know he has more to learn about catching, but isn’t 2-3 days of him better than having Ross and Montero take all seven games in a week?
Klaw: No, not if you agree that he has work to do behind the plate. It’s not like the big league team is hurting now either.

ECinDC: How did Erick Fedde look? Is he back to pre-draft form? Based on your tweets, seemed ok! Also, do Nats do anything particularly well dealing with young injured pitchers?
Klaw: Two pitch guy, nothing to get LHB out. Hard to see him as a starter with that arsenal.

Sean in Tallahassee: Saw your brief write up on D. Mendoza (Lake Minneola); any extended thoughts/how far is he from top 50 ranking?
Klaw: Has to be somewhere in the next 50 but the swing and miss plus the mechanics – the guy’s ass is in the dugout – give him huge bust potential.

Nate: You mentioned on twitter yesterday that the Reds weren’t in on Delvin Perez? Is there a particular reason they aren’t interested?
Klaw: I said I don’t think he’s in their mix. That could be wrong – it’s still plenty early for teams to change their minds.

Nils: You’ve mentioned many times to not read into small sample size. I understand that completely with regards to stats, but does that also go for tools? If a guy who usually throws 90-94 is suddenly hitting 95-98 in one game, do you wait to see it again before taking it seriously?
Klaw: Yes, that’s absolutely true. A dose of skepticism can come in handy in this job. I’d rather be a little late on the bandwagon than be the guy waving the flag for every kid who had a great outing.

Brian: Keith, you have seen a few games at Wilmington commenting on prospects from other orgs. Is there any prospect on the Wilmington roster worth keeping an eye on for a Royals fan? Thanks.
Klaw: Staumont, whom I tweeted about this morning. O’Hearn is the only bat of note and I see more strength than hit tool. He does put the ball in play a lot, which has gotten him some extra hits thanks to A-ball fielding. Usually a guy like him would swing and miss more.

David: Regarding HS pitchers – do teams prefer guys pitch 4 or 5 innings per week to “save” their arms? It amazes me that MLB teams will hand out 5 or 6M to a kid who pitches maybe 40-50 innings. I guess the real question is do you think being a work-horse pitcher is something you are born with or is it an attribute that can be molded?
Klaw: We don’t want to see anyone pitching while fatigued. There isn’t a magic number, but we all know what it looks like when a kid is tired – his velo drops, his command wavers, his arm slot drifts down, etc. If you’re a HS coach reading this, please, don’t do that. Take him out five pitches too soon if you have to.

Sven: Are teams generally being more aggressive in pushing their prospects? Alex Verdugo to AA at 19yo and Corny Randolph to full-A at 18yo?
Klaw: No, I thought Randolph had to go to Lakewood – most advanced HS bat in the class last year, what the hell is he going to learn in extended spring training? – and sending Verdugo to the Cal League might not help him much either.

Danny: Could a team win if they fielded a lineup that averaged an OBP of .375 but hit no home runs?
Klaw: Yes, but who the hell would watch?

Don: Hello Keith, love the chats and insider stuff should a team with small money allocations for the draft (like the cubs this year) be wise to spend big on one guy and draft seniors and other low dollar players to pay for it or try and draft evenly through the draft even though they likely wont get a known stud?
Klaw: I think they have to be prepared for the overslot kid who slides to them, so they can call the quick audible, take him, and know what their plan is through the rest of the top ten. If the right player doesn’t fall, then just take BPA as usual.

Don: When it comes to draft you say, and I believe also, you draft BPA but how big is each teams scouting board? when does the dart throwing start for teams? seems with 40 rounds teams would be taking shots in the dark in last 5-10 rounds
Klaw: The boards are usually structured in several segments; in Toronto we had the top board of anywhere from 50-100 guys, then started breaking down by position, with separate areas for medicals, unsignables, and so on.

Nelson: To what do you attribute the explosion of popularity of food tourism?
Klaw: Television. And I guess social media too. Eating is now an activity we share and discuss with people who aren’t at the table. I often eat alone on the road, which is fine with me because it’s quick and I always have a book, but a big dinner at a great restaurant with a bunch of friends is an experience to hold on to.

GN: My nephew is deciding right now between the University of Wisconsin on a full scholarship versus Harvard on no scholarship, which would incur him about $5k of debt per year. We’re getting all sorts of varying opinions on the matter, which would you choose? He’s interested in medicine btw, but he’s also 18 so who knows if that’s what he will pursue in the end.
Klaw: If it’s only $5k/year, go to Harvard. The value of that name on the resume will more than cover the added expense. If you were comparing full cost at Harvard to no cost at another school, I’d answer differently.

Alpha610: Only reason for Michael Reed not yet being up is because of the service time bs, right? Brewers are trotting out absolute scrubs in CF right now.
Klaw: I assume so but haven’t asked. He didn’t play AAA last year so perhaps they wanted him to get 100+ AB there.

Adam S: Why do major news outlets give a forum to so much anti-science, anti-fact? Today (pun intended) De Niro, but more broadly “analysis” lacking any factual basis on ESPN or MLB Network?
Klaw: Because they want eyeballs and give no fucks about fact, science, or responsibility. TODAY’s producers should be ashamed. I doubt they are though.

Tim: Hey Keith, enjoyed the top 50 – thanks for all of your and Eric’s hard work. If you’re the Reds, with the largest pool in the draft and the #2 and #35 picks in the 1st round, and the #42 pick (#2 in 2nd round), what would be your strategy with those three picks? (Assume Groome gets snatched up by the McPhillies). Seems like they can go underslot with their first pick and really go after guys they want with their 2nd two picks.
Klaw: I don’t think the Phillies want a HS arm at 1. If the Reds want Groome, great – probably demands full slot there, but you should get any player you take for the amount of the slot at #3, which would save you a million or so. I’d say then go hard after the guys you like at the next two slots – and while it’s illegal, yes, call some kids and say “hey, we’ll give you $3MM at pick 35, if you want that, tell other teams you’re not signing” because EVERYBODY does this – and then go cheaper in rounds 4-10 if necessary. A draft where you land three impact or elite upside talents is probably going to be a great one even if you have to take a few extra seniors to pay for it.

Mike: Please don’t consider this an angry “you hate my team” rant. I really want to ask if it is possible if PECOTA and other prediction methods don’t properly rate some types of teams? For example, both the Royals and Orioles seem to be consistently underrated in the preseason despite success in winning games the past few seasons (so we are past SSS). Does PECOTA maybe undervalue defense? Bullpens? Or God forbid, managers? With all the advances in statistical analysis, I just think there may be a small blind spot for some type of teams. Thanks!
Klaw: Better question for the folks who do those projections. My guess is that you’re focusing too much on small blips that over long periods would even out more. A projection system coming in short on one team three years in a row probably isn’t that unusual if we had the ability to look at 50 years of projections and results.

Lopez 2.0: It looks like Eovaldi has added a sick 89-91 mph slider to his arsenal. Got a lot of whiffs on it against Houston. However, in that outing the Astros consistently made contact with his 96-99 mph heater, and it looked like it had pretty good movement on it as well. Is the reason Eovaldi gets hit so often because guys see the ball so well out of his hands? I can’t think of anything else.
Klaw: That and the fastball is straight enough to hang laundry on.

David (ATL): When you start putting together mock drafts, what percentage of that is based on specific intel you are getting from clubs/scouts vs. your guesses based on prior drafts or organizational philosophy?
Klaw: As close to 100% as I can possibly get it. This is why I don’t do mocks early – teams haven’t narrowed their decision sets yet. And I hate saying “they’re on player X” and finding out later that they were not on player X.

JD: You seem unenthusiastic about this year’s crop. Does 2017 look more exciting?
Klaw: It does, and I’m not just saying that because that’s what we say every year. I like the college pitching crop already, and a couple of SoCal scouts have told me it’s a huge HS crop out there next year too.

Michael: I saw Lowe and Kieboom last Friday……Lowe showed his power first AB with a bomb to straighaway center. Question is how does he project defensively?? He did boot a ball that seemed like a fairly routine play at 3rd
Klaw: Nice, I’m planning to see Lowe vs Benson this Friday (and maybe stop by Spiller Park Coffee that morning). I’ve heard the arm plays anywhere but he’d need a lot of work at third. Would like to see myself, of course.

Dan: Odds right now on the #1 pick in June – are you taking Groome or the field?
Klaw: The field. I got a question from someone named Dan on Facebook that assumed that the no-hitter Groome threw the other day improved his standing and made him the favorite to go 1 now. My response was a bit short, but I’ll offer more depth here: No, it doesn’t, because results aren’t as important at that level as stuff, body, and mechanics (remember Patrick Schuster?); because Groome faces some awful competition and is going to put up some ungodly numbers down there; and because it happened before I posted my list so I would have made any adjustments if I thought one was required. I hope that answers other-Dan’s question more fully.

JD: Lets assume Olivera gets more severely punished — either legally or by the league — than Chapman and Reyes. Will you have any concern that stars are getting treated differently from lesser players — and particularly, foreign players without as solid a footing in the US?
Klaw: No because in this case i think MLB will have better info. If the police report is accurate, he may face jail time. The other two guys skated on legal repercussions.

G: Have you read “Possession” by A.S. Byatt? I find myself completely entranced by it–reminds me of Nabokov’s “Pale Fire” in deconstructing the novel.
Klaw: Yes. Didn’t love either of those books for the reason you liked them. I like novels. Stop deconstructing them in front of me.

addoeh: Any scouting trips planned to permafrost land to see Cooper Johnson, Lux, and Rortvedt? Plenty of Culver’s around, plus a trip to Kopp’s.
Klaw: Johnson perhaps, the others are probably going to be too tough with my schedule. Johnson at least is easy because he’s near Chicago and I can do other stuff while there.

Amru: At the end of the day, do Braves draft according to need (college bat), or do they take best player available (Pint, Perez, Rutherford, etc)?
Klaw: I don’t agree that those two will be different.

Mike: Does rhe 7-0 start change your opinion on the Orioles at all?
Klaw: No, because a major league season has 162 games.

Jake: Could Orlando Arcia be the #1 prospect next year if he doesn’t graduate?
Klaw: Sure, that’s possible.

Nelson: Do you see Inciarte and Mallex Smith in the same outfield on a championship caliber team?
Klaw: I do not.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to music in front of your daughter? If so, how do you handle bad language? avoid it? talk over it? talk about it?
Klaw: Yes. We talk about it. She knows those words. I don’t really see a reason to censor bands she likes (e.g., CHVRCHES) because of an occasional profanity. If the song’s entire content were objectionable, that would be a different story. She’s still only 9 so topics like sex are still off limits.

Lucien: Thoughts on the Giants locking up Belt until 2021?
Klaw: Those deals are nearly always good for the clubs. This one was also good for the player given his injuries and inconsistency earlier in his career.

Joe: Where does Bo Bichette end up on the field? Any chance to stay at short?
Klaw: No chance at short. I think second or third. I like him more than the industry, I think; he’s calmed down his swing a lot, so early impressions may still be hurting him, plus his brother struggling could have people wary of Bo. I see an athletic kid with bat speed, strong hands, and a manic style of play.

Michael: It seems like a lot of teams purposely keep their better prospects in Florida or warmer areas to start the minor league season. Is that something you would do as an executive of a cold weather team? Should players learn to play in the cold, or does it not really matter?
Klaw: If a player were ready developmentally for low-A, I’d send him to low-A and buy him a winter coat.

Ryan: What college program comes to mind first when you think of a staff that manages arms well?
Klaw: Vanderbilt. They produce big leaguers and they’ve had fewer guys get hurt (compared to the total volume of arms) than any other major program.

UGW: Taylor Hearn has unreal stuff, but iffy command. Future reliever?
Klaw: No question.

Mumford’s son: How do MLB teams deal with that one prospect whose father seems like a nut job? Are there teams that won’t consider him at all?
Klaw: Yes, and some teams will just hope the father will be isolated once the player signs and moves away from home.

Kay: Mets fan here. Would this be a good year to have a pair of later first rounders? No clear huge talents at the top of the draft, bit more depth?
Klaw: It’s a good year to have what they have, money and an extra pick or two. You can get creative.

Andy: To the person who was amazed by teams giving 5-6million for kids who have pitched 50-60 innings but maybe could do more, Darren O’Day will be paid $6m this season with a career high in IP at 69.
Klaw: Nice.

Niel: Do you think Mazara could be up in the big leagues for good? When Choo gets back, maybe Desmond slides to CF and Mazara moves to left?
Klaw: And bench DeShields? I think it makes the lineup better, but I don’t think the Rangers view DD as that dispensable.

Martin: Keith, I hear Greg Maddux is getting his pitching staff to chart previous game pitches? Surely with modern day scouting it’s a token gesture or do you see any value in it?
Klaw: It forces the pitchers to focus attention on the games. If I tell you to watch a game, you’re not bearing down as you would if you had to chart the game.

Rich: Does kaprielian have top 2 starter potential with added velocity?
Klaw: Yes, in theory, although I think it’s a little early to start revising anyone’s ceiling. It’s all hypothetical now anyway – it’s not like players are changing teams in April.

Andy: The issue with the Michael Reed in AAA thing, they aren’t even playing him in CF. Instead, they’re playing Eric Young.
Klaw: I did not notice that, but that’s awful. The biggest surprise I have had out of David Stearns’ tenure there is that he did not turn over the player development staff after he got the job.

Lindsay: I really like when you call people out on black-and-white issues, such as climate change and vaccines. But it bothers me–and you can correct me if I’m wrong–when you do this on non-black-and-white issues. On Twitter, you seemed to imply that being pro-life is anti-woman and that the abortion debate is easy. I have thought long and hard about abortion and still don’t truly know which side to fall on. It is a hard issue. I am a woman too and I don’t think being pro-life is anti-woman at all.
Klaw: Twitter is lousy for anything that isn’t black and white. Any time I’ve thought about scaling back my Twitter use, that’s been the main reason. (I dreamed last night I’d been off Twitter for several months. It seemed rather unreal.) In that discussion with a reader who rather openly advocated for Kasich, I pointed out that his policies as a whole and his anti-abortion stance in particular were not pro-woman. However, I do think that giving a woman the right to an abortion, which includes the right to choose never to have an abortion, is a woman’s rights issue. Attempts by largely male government bodies to deny them this right, then craft convoluted exceptions – as I pointed out to that user, if a woman says she was raped and wants an abortion, does she need paperwork? Does she have to wait for a conviction? – strike me, at least, as contrary to a basic sense of human rights for women.

Brook: Do you think the NCCA rule change enabling agents to officially negotiate on behalf of HS kids will have any material impact on the draft? I would like to think better representation will lead to increased bonuses for prospects, but with the allotment caps, I’m not sure where that money would come from.
Klaw: I think it’ll allow teams to better understand what players want financially and make predraft conversations more productive. I’m hoping we’ll also get fewer postdraft misunderstandings that scotch deals. Karsten Whitson was one, where, as far as I could reconstruct the matter, his father was telling the Padres one thing and the advisor another.

Kay: When drafting/ranking prospects, how much value is there in a high floor? There’s such a high failure rate for developing players, I imagine there’s value in having a “sure” bet for an average-above average player. How do you factor in high ceiling vs. low floor in your ranking?
Klaw: Good question that is impossible to answer in a clear, logical fashion, because the rankings themselves are subjective. I do a lot of pairwise comparisons, and think about whether i’d rather have what this player is likely to be, times some mental estimate of his probability, versus what this player is likely to be (or could be, if it’s a high-ceiling guy), times some mental estimate of that probability.

Eric: Hey Keith, great chat. Not going to hold you to it, but do you have a general idea in your head where Brandon McIllwain would’ve ranked in your draft top 50 if he stayed in H.S. for his senior baseball season?
Klaw: Thought he was a late first-rounder.

Amru: What’s the ceiling on Braxton Davidson? A Mitch Moreland-type player, or is that perhaps too optimistic? I know he’s consistently been younger than his competition, but have to worry some about the strikeouts.
Klaw: Needs to be more aggressive when he gets ahead in the count. Saw two hits today, then two strikeouts vs Swanson on bigger velocity. Think he has more upside than Moreland, but a long way to go to get there.

Tyler: True or False: Fredi Gonzalez is the Braves manager at the All Star break.
Klaw: True.

Casey: How likely do you think it is Alec Hansen drops to the 30’s? Might a team do something similar with him that the Royals did with Manaea?
Klaw: Yes, but I don’t know to what extent his issues are physical, and if teams will know ahead of time the way they knew Manaea needed hip surgery.

Martin: Have you managed to catch The Night Manager (Hugh Laurie) yet? If so, thoughts?
Klaw: Hasn’t aired here yet. First episode is Tuesday, I think.

Amru: Given your hectic schedule, how do you manage to find time to satisfy your voracious reading appetite? I swear it never seems like there’s enough time in the day to fit more than a couple chapters in.
Klaw: I bring a book with me wherever I go.

Corey: Benintendi has picked up where he left off, raking in Salem. How soon would you consider moving him to AA and at his current trajectory possible he’s in MLB by next season a la Conforto ? Speaking of Salem, best team in the minors ? crazy how much talent is there
Klaw: Conforto made the majors 12 months after he signed, so for Benintendi that would be this June. If they want that to happen, they have to have a quick trigger on a promotion to AA. I think he’ll be ready for that soon if not already.

Ridley Kemp: Aren’t you concerned about being labelled a “Social Justice Warrior” and getting on someone’s list?
Klaw: I’ve been labelled lots of things. Doesn’t bother me.

Ben: Quantrill to the A’s at 6, is that a probable outcome?
Klaw: He hasn’t pitched this year, so I’d say no. I’ve heard they’d love Senzel if he’s there.

Corey: Except that pro-life usually means pro-birth since that crowd doesn’t seem to care much about “life” after delivery.
Klaw: And the responsibility for that life falls disproportionately on the mother. I have thought about this, and read about it, for probably 20 years, trying to even craft a rational policy that restricts abortion (just as a thought exercise) without being internally illogical or structurally discriminatory. I haven’t found one.

ECinDC: Related to football players getting paid, which I think you support, what you you think should be done for baseball players? Seems to make sense that they should be able to go pro at any point if NCAA wants to continue to not pay.
Klaw: I agree. I think the “stay for three years” rule is stupid. Why is MLB helping college baseball? Does college baseball help MLB? In general, college coaches don’t develop players, and we have the constant conflict over pitcher use.

Fred Wilpon’s accountant: I went through your profile of the top 50 draft prospects and, admittedly I didn’t count them, but it seemed like there were quite a few names from colder weather states. This is not something I have paid attention to in the past so it may not be unusual but I expected fewer names from the north. Is it unusual or am I seeing something that is not there?
Klaw: It’s a weak year in SoCal and Texas.

Kay: For the record, I feel like you sometimes rub people the wrong way because you are very sure of your beliefs and don’t really budge to dissenting opinions. I’m cool with you have different feelings on subjects than I do – that’s kind of how discourse and debate work. I appreciate that you have very strongly held morals and beliefs.
Klaw: Thank you. I think this is also a function of Twitter, or just writing in general, because it often comes off as toneless (or readers infer the tone they want – if you like what I say, I’m being funny, if you dislike it, I’m being an asshole). In person, even when arguing Big Serious Topics, I don’t think I come off so harshly, although I guess I’ll leave that to the readers I’ve met over the years to verify or debunk.

Sean: Orphan Black. 4.14.2013. See you then.
Klaw: I assume you mean this week’s premiere … we’ll binge it this summer, since we whacked most of our cable subscriptions.

Michael: Like you, I wish college players in revenue sports would get paid. But I struggle to think of a method to actually do this. Should the best players receive signing bonuses out of high school? Surely, the field goal kicker shouldn’t make the same as the quarterback. How would you actually go about paying them?
Klaw: Market value with a preset minimum tied to revenue. QBs will get big money, Kickers would likely get the minimum.

Ryan: Still think Senzel in the top 5 is a bad move? Where do you stand on his future power?
Klaw: I’ve heard it’s more like 55 raw, but plays down in game. If I told you you could have an average defender at third with average power and an above-average hit tool, where would you take that? Is that peak Bill Mueller?

Adam: Will Bobby Dalbec have to pitch at the next level to be successful?
Klaw: He isn’t getting anywhere at the plate right now.

BD: At even the best NCAA baseball programs, most players are not on full scholarship correct? Or has that changed?
Klaw: I believe that’s correct.

Andy: While I realize that players determine somewhat, do laws like North Carolina’s HB2 mean that you may choose to not see someone live to avoid traveling to the state?
Klaw: If I have such discretion, yes, I would try to see those players elsewhere.

Drew: It strikes me as odd to bring up Kepler strictly as a 4th outfielder (injury replacement). I would rather he get regular AB’s with the hope that he hits his way to the everyday big league lineup by summer. Thoughts?
Klaw: I would too, but I’ll also wait and see how this plays out a bit. Perhaps they’re planning to send Buxton out sooner rather than later if the strikeouts continue.

Ridley Kemp: It boggles my mind that the very concept of probability was developed so late in the game. What’s the next science or math book on your radar?
Klaw: Brian Greene’s Elegant Universe.

Michael: As a pro-science person though, how do you reconcile the overwhelming scientific evidence that a zygote, for instance, is human and an entirely separate being from the mother? If you ignore the social aspects and just focus on the biological ones, it’s somewhat difficult to be pro-choice.
Klaw: Because this “overwhelming scientific evidence” does not exist.

Jeff: I know the team just made the World Series, but isn’t Terry Collins one of the worst possible managers to have on a team built on pitching? Maybe it’s just personal bias, but it seems like the man destroys arms, no? He has Henderson pitching today, his 5th appearance in 8 games, after he threw 35 pitches last night!
Klaw: Lot I don’t like about Collins, but I have never thought of him as a destroyer of arms.

Amru: So does this mean we can’t expect you to visit Asheville again anytime soon? A large majority of us Ashevillains hate and revile HB2.
Klaw: Actually never been there.

Jose G: Hey Keith, I know how much you hate comps but reading your acouting report on Kyle Lewis, I couldn’t help but think George Springer. What’s the likelihood that Lewis goes to the Braves at 3 for a discount?
Klaw: He’s not like Springer. Springer was way more physical at that age. Maybe the toolsiest college position player I’ve ever seen.

Pat: Like others, I don’t always agree with everything you say (talking SERIOUS issues, not baseball), but, appreciate your candor & firm beliefs. With that in mind, what is a “serious issue”, you don’t have a firm belief or something you go back & forth on? I’ll admit mine has always been abortion.
Klaw: I find drug legalization a complex one, although if asked to stake one position, I’m in favor of decriminalizing use. A lot of economics questions fall in the gray area for me, often because any new policy will create or change who wins and who loses. The minimum wage discussion we had here under Saturday’s stick to baseball post is a good example: I support higher minimum wages, but recognize they won’t benefit everyone, and feel like they’re being treated as a panacea when they’re really just shifting around some surpluses.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Baker > Collins.
Klaw: Can’t do that. Baker’s got a long history of mistakes.

Jake: Let’s just end all of the questions about who the Braves could take at #3 by asking this; who do you think the Braves take at #3?
Klaw: It depends on who goes 1 and 2!

Tim: Do you think Polanco will ever hit enough fly balls to homer 30 times a year? I’m just imagining some of those laser beams he hits off the PNC Park Wall turning into 450 foot bombs into the river……
Klaw: Yes. Certainly 25.

Jeb: Do you think that any new, effective pitches have yet to be discovered? I’d like to believe that someone could come up with a new way to spin and move a ball given all the possible permutations, but I’m guessing that given the limitations of the human arm/hand/wrist, we may have already tested everything.
Klaw: Inclined to think the latter. Just a guess.

Jeb: Have you tried any ramen places in NY?
Klaw: Only one, in Chelsea Market. I need to try more everything in NY. It’s a goal for 2016.

John: In the Cubs’ only loss so far, Maddon decided to let Strop pitch to Goldschmidt in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and the tying run on third (Peralta on deck). Goldschmidt ended up knocking in the run, then Peralta got out. Maddon got some mild criticism for not calling for the IBB, but didn’t he make the right call? Over the long haul, isn’t it better to avoid the IBB (even with someone as good as Goldschmidt up) when the on deck hitter is also pretty good?
Klaw: Yes, and you usually want to avoid putting on another runner (and potential run), and to avoid reducing your pitcher’s margin for error if the IBB were to load the bases.

Ryan: Regarding the Kyle Lewis question earlier, would you have a problem with Atlanta taking him at 3 if they get him at less than the 4th pick’s slot?
Klaw: If Ray’s on the board I would not be a fan of this.

Martin: Austerity or debt fuelled stimulus?
Klaw: My problem – and I’m not that great on econ stuff – is that when we rack up debt during a recession to stimulate the economy, we kind of forget to pay it off when the economy is growing again.

JD: Mallex Smith didn’t make your Braves top-20+, so I don’t think I’ve seen you write about him. Thought?
Klaw: Can run, high contact guy, no power. Tough profile in this environment where similar low-power guys like Hamilton and Burns have had trouble making enough quality contact to be good hitters. Those two have contributed as defenders; I don’t have a good enough feel for Smith’s defense to say he might be that good. Also, Atlanta’s system is loaded.

Ryan: What kind of stat line do you project Corey Ray to put up in the big leagues? .280/.340 with 20 homers/20 steals?
Klaw: Yep, I could see that. I mentioned that he’s had issues with lefties this year, but I should have qualified that that’s from scouts saying he doesn’t see them well; he actually has no real platoon split on the season as a whole.

His dopey manager: Does Syndergaard have the best stuff in the big leagues?
Klaw: Kershaw’s still got that title for me.

Jeb: Totto’s Hell’s Kitchen location is awesome. Terrible lines, but the ramen is excellent.
Klaw: I’ve waited in line at Franklin BBQ with @lana so I’m not afraid of a little wait.

JD: Played Patchwork yet? Delightful two-player game, seems like something your daughter might enjoy based on how you’ve described her gaming tastes.
Klaw: Yep, reviewed it about this time last year. App is good too if you can get past the cutesy graphics.

mets: Collins just put in Henderson after he threw a career high last night and predictably he loads the bases with no outs. wtf!
Klaw: Isn’t he just back from shoulder surgery too? I hope I’m thinking of the wrong guy.

Joe: Not a draft question – how often, if at all, is the baseline of “replacement player” adjusted? Who makes that decision? Is there consensus on what constitutes replacement level or do different organizations/publications use their own standards?
Klaw: When asked to open that particular box, Pandora said, “Fuck it.”

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you for jumping up a day with me. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week. I’ll also have a short column on the minors’ best Opening Day rosters for prospects out on Friday, plus other blog posts coming in the next couple of days.

Klawchat 4/7/16.

Klaw: Let a sucker slide once, then I break his neck. Klawchat.

Jack: I saw an article that you and some Phillies brass were at the Groome start. What is the general protocol for you interacting with team employees at games? I assume it varies based on how well you know each other, but is the range from “don’t even acknowledge it’s each other’s presence” to “it’s like running into old friends”?
Klaw: I know so many of these guys that it’s more like the latter. I look forward to games like that because I’ll see so many friends there.

James: How would you compare Groome to Allard and Aiken?
Klaw: Better than Allard – more physical, more present velocity, less effort. Aiken was more advanced, showing three (arguably four) pitches and better command, but bear in mind Tuesday was not a full effort outing.

John: Does Groome being a “hometown kid” have any effect on whether the phillies should select him or not? Would the added pressure have any effect on the decision?
Klaw: No. This is media bullshit we get almost every year. Teams are generally not that stupid. You take the best player, not the best player in your backyard.

Eric: Keith, have you ever seen a 95mph slider before? Thor looks even better than advertised in your opinion who is the first pitcher the Mets lock up long term or do you think they will wait until they’re all eligible for free agency
Klaw: No and I’m guessing that was a cutter (or a bad gun reading). Thor is the one guy of their aces I’d most want to lock up – I think he offers the best potential for durability. [Post-chat edit: sounds like pitch f/x had that velocity and Syndergaard called it a slider. I think it would be the hardest slider in MLB history.]

Drew: Brandon Finnegan looked good with his first start and I understand it was vs. the Phillies. What are your thoughts on a potential mid rotation starter ?
Klaw: I see no chance of that. Reliever all the way.

Lyle: So, Drew Jackson. Couple of things: 1) Understand that Mariners fans had so little in the minors to be even hopeful about that we want him to be someone who exceeds his projections, and 2) You’re the prospect guy so I’m sure that you’re much more likely to be right about his projection than you are to be wrong. Having said all that, what kind of performance would Jackson need to have in the Cal League (skipping the MWL) in order for you to bump him up a level or two (say, from org guy to AAAA guy to fringe regular)?
Klaw: Bakersfield is a good place to hit (as is the league in general) so I don’t pay much attention to college products’ stats there. In Jackson’s case, he really wasn’t much of a hitter in college, so making more contact and showing some plate discipline would be some progress, I suppose. But I’d say wait till AA.

David: I know previously you said the Phillies were not interested in a HS pitcher at #1, but with Groome’s ability and polish, and the relative disappointment of the college crop, is Groome now the odds on favorite at #1?
Klaw: No. There is no “odds on favorite” this year. There’s no Harper or Strasburg or even Cole. I do think Groome is the best prospect in the class now, having talked to a lot of folks about how Ray has looked this year, but that doesn’t make him the odds-on anything.

David: No question, just wanted to say you were great on TV and enjoyed hearing your insight during the broadcast.
Klaw: Thank you – it was fun to do it and the guys (Boog, Sut, Doug) all made it easy for me.

Bill: Do you have a suggested starting place for P.G. Wodehouse? He shows up on your top books list, but when I was looking for his books recently there seem to be a bunch, including random short story collections that have a bunch of overlap, and no clear place to start.
Klaw: I started with the collection Enter Jeeves, which was three books in one, two of short stories and one novel.

Dave: Do you have The Food Lab in your cookbook arsenal? I was a slow cooker carnitas guy also until I tried the crispy skin pork shoulder recipe, it’s a showstopper. Great book
Klaw: I do – yes, great book.

Droopydave: Are the the benefits of 19 and 20 year old’s playing in major colleges with diet and nutrition programs vs those eating fast food playing in lower levels of the minors valued by organizations? Or has this been corrected?
Klaw: You think teams don’t have diet and nutrition programs? Players are better off in pro ball, no matter what colleges try to tell you.

Justin: So my took my 17 month old to get his 2nd round of flu shot’s 2 months ago. The kid was literally never sick, he’d only been to the doctor only for his vaccines. Since then, we’ve been over a dozen times…reoccuring wheezing, cough, eczema, runny nose, the whole atroph march and it never ends . Of course its not the flu shot, right? Others have told me similar stories and my wife is becoming convinced. I stand firm but admit I’m starting to question it. Any suggested reading materials? Man, having kids sucks sometimes.
Klaw: It’s not the flu shot. But man does that sound like an allergic reaction to something (I am, of course, not a doctor). I hope your son feels better soon.

Frank: Can we expect this type of performance moving forward from Nicasio
Klaw: No. It’s one start – and he still hasn’t shown a third pitch.

Eric: I saw that the Blue Jays manager defended himself with “my wife, daughters, etc. didn’t have a problem with it”. Isn’t that the “I have a lot of African-American friends” defense?
Klaw: Yes, it is. Plenty of people, women and men, did have a problem with it. Regardless of his motivation, he was wrong to say it, and MLB should act on that.

Michael: Whenever a friend or family member uses the r word, I generally tell him/her that it’s inappropriate. On more than one occasion, they have responded that people like me are indirectly responsible for the rise of Trump and the anti-PC crowd. You commonly correct people on Twitter and in chats. Do you agree with this sentiment? Do you think it’s possible you’re actually accomplishing the opposite of what you’re intending, and creating something far worse?
Klaw: I believe sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Chris P: What is up with Mariners prospects…Alex Jackson going back to extended spring?!?!
Klaw: Yep. Not a great situation, but it’s not like he’s performed near expectations yet.

addoeh: What would your costume if you won John Oliver’s commoner in the premium seats at Yankee Stadium contest?
Klaw: Foppish dandy: http://www.theonion.com/article/foppish-dandy-disregards-local-constabulary-1115

Jeff: Klaw, how many teams and players have you totally changed your mind on since Opening Day based on their performance? Thanks!
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Michael: It seems like some people were surprised Alford will start in Dunedin. Do you think they should have challenged him at AA or better to take your time with a guy who hasn’t played much pro ball?
Klaw: I think he’ll get to AA soon enough, maybe once it warms up … but didn’t they do a bunch of strange things with assignments there? Why was Sean Reid-Foley demoted to low-A?

Dan: Hey Keith, nice seeing you during the game last night! What did you thank about Nola? The obvious caveat about a weak lineup applies, but he seemed to locate well and worked efficiently. He was obviously getting tired in his last inning when he fell behind 3-0 to the first two hitters but he came back to strike both of them out. As I Phillies fan, it was a fun game to watch (for the first eight innings).
Klaw: Looked great. Curveball is definitely better than it was a year ago. Still see a mid-rotation guy long-term, league-average to above league-average, probably someone you hope is your third-best starter when you’re contending.

Dan: Anfrenee Grier was somewhat heralded in HS as talented but raw. He seems to have improved his draft stock, but still seems quite raw. Does he project as an everyday player given his developmental path to date? Much thanks.
Klaw: Projects as an above-average regular with unusual upside for a college guy between his tools and his youth (I think he’s 20.7 on draft day?).

“Lighten Up” Guy: You chat like a girl
Klaw: Thoughtfully?

Michael: Re your comments on Henry Ford, where would you draw the line with historical figures? Do T.S. Eliot, Robert E. Lee, Dr. Seuss, Woodrow Wilson, and Thomas Jefferson, for instance, always need a disclaimer, or can we celebrate them for what they were good at (literary, political, or military genius) and quietly leave the rest alone?
Klaw: Ford bought a newspaper just so he could spread his hate of Jews, reprinted the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, and accepted an award from the Nazi government. He was beyond the pale.

Joe: I know all teams want a piece of opening day, so the schedule makers can’t just stick with warm weather cities for the first two weeks. But shouldn’t all the games scheduled for cold weather cities at least be in-division games? That way, any weather problems don’t force an immediate doubleheader or losing a mutual off day later in the season. Seems like bad scheduling to have New York host Houston instead of Toronto, for example.
Klaw: Having two dome teams play each other was pretty stupid too.

Tom: Heaney just went on the DL with forearm tightness. A couple of years ago, Skaggs went on the DL with forearm tightness. This is an obvious place to jump to conclusions, right?
Klaw: There is no such thing as good forearm tightness, flexor strain, or biceps tendinitis.

BD: I’m not one for Spring Training and 1st week stats either, but when there is a dramatic physical change, I wonder. Does Wilson Ramos getting LASIK mean anything? He looks a lot better (so far)
Klaw: I believe physical changes like you describe have real, lasting effects that we should be aware of, but that we still need a few weeks of data at the absolute minimum before we can say “yep, he’s better.”

Tom: I’m sort of confused on the whole Joey Bats controversy. People were saying the Utley Rule or something was enforced, but has it ever been legal to slide into second and grab the defender’s leg as you go by?
Klaw: MLB seems to have said the Utley rule covered it, but I agree with you that at least one and probably two rules already on the books made that play illegal. Also, Bautista was out; why the hell should he be allowed to affect anything on the field at that point?

John: Genuinely interested, not trolling. Why was it okay for you to poke fun at Ron Paul’s/Bobby Valentine’s appearance, but I presume you would never do that with women?
Klaw: Clearly trolling, since I didn’t poke fun – I just pointed out a resemblance – and you’re basing this stupid question on a stupid presumption of what I would do in a hypothetical situation. Think critically for a second.

MJ: Cano is off to a great start, carrying over from his second half and big spring. Have you seen any kind of mechanical adjustment that has led to his hot play since last summer or is he just finally healthy?
Klaw: I think he’s finally healthy. Did he need a mechanical adjustment? I don’t know of anything from last year (which could be my own ignorance) that would point to that.

Vance: What’s your take on that good, uhm, parable in Colorado right now? Has that yarn spinner learned to hit? I know SSS, but it’s still interesting.
Klaw: I said on the BBTN podcast this morning that he is probably just an average regular, but he could easily be better than Reyes, who can’t play shortstop any more anyway, so if the hot start means Anecdote keeps the job all year, so much the better for the Rockies.

Finch: What would you need to see from Jurickson Profar to consider this season a success?
Klaw: Just health. I don’t doubt he’ll hit and, if the arm is indeed fully recovered, field well.

Wellington: Are there any HS guys from Northern California, other than Manning that could go within the first 2 days of the draft?
Klaw: He’s the only one on my list right now; among college guys, there’s Daulton Jeffries at Cal (missed last start with a calf injury) and Lucas Erceg at Menlo College, an NAIA school. Erceg “left” Cal in the fall – there are various rumors about why, none of which seems very favorable to the player – and is putting up Nintendo numbers at the smaller program.

Andrew: What would you do re Rusney Castillo if it were up to you? It seems to me like
Klaw: Sorry you got cut off, but I think they’re doing the right thing with him at the moment.

Jack: Which draft prospect’s stock has fallen/risen the most since the beginning of the season?
Klaw: Hard to slip more than Alec Hansen, who was a 1-1 candidate but has been bad and hurt. Rising could be Grier or possibly Joey Wentz, HS lefty near KC (same town as Pint but they don’t face each other), gone from just a good arm to clear first-rounder.

Vance: In the time since Trout was drafted have teams become better at scouting cold weather city players?
Klaw: That’s unfair to teams scouting that year – it was miserable in the northeast, tons of rain, so he didn’t play often and was just harder to see. He also was not an 80 runner in high school.

Tim: Have you ever thought about doing a later chat, maybe 8 or 9 PM EST? I can’t be the only one secretly doing this at work…
Klaw: If I’m home at that hour, I’m with my family, and if I’m not home, I’m probably at a game.

BD: Maryland starter Mike Sharwyn bumped from Friday to Sunday… why the regression this year, and can he fix it?
Klaw: Think he’s a reliever anyway. Might be better off in that role now.

Keith: Re: Thor and his slider – definitely had slider movement around 92-95. Still, I don’t remember seeing a starter like Noah pretty much ever – 100ish 4seam, mean 2seam/sinker at 95+, solid change, and good breaking stuff – sky the limit? The only guy who compares in recent memory is Strasburg, but Thor seems to have a better temperament and composure on the mound.
Klaw: Very different personalities, and Thor does it easier anyway. One of the best examples I can remember of a guy who was nearly all projection in high school and has hit just about every milestone or leaped every developmental hurdle you could think of. Every year, something has gotten better. I also wonder if that gradual improvement is part of why he’s stayed healthy, as opposed to the Strasburg or Zumaya types who showed up after one offseason with 10 extra mph.

Matt: Scott Schebler a viable platoon OF long term? how would you rate the power/speed tools? 55 each potentially?
Klaw: Think he’s more of a 4A guy.

Michael: Rome’s rotation by May could be Soroka, Fried, Allard, Touki, and Sanchez……..any chance you’ll be catching some games down here potentially?? Also got Riley, Acuna and Herbert among the position players
Klaw: Great team but not likely I’ll come there – they’ll come up north to Delmarva or Lakewood.

Andrew: Just to finish my Castillo thought – is he a 4th/5th OF now? Did the Red Sox just whiff and spend $72 million on a bench player, or is there more there?
Klaw: There was always some fourth OF risk – great defender but it seemed like no one was sold on the bat, or the power, or both. And at his age, can you hope for more development if he goes to AAA?

Terrance: Hey Klaw, I know it’s not your fault but ESPN giving Greg Hardy that softball interview with Adam Schefter, and Schefter subsequently going around referring to Hardy as a “changed man” may be my last straw with the Worldwide Leader, as far as giving them my Insider money. I’ll still follow your personal website, of course.
Klaw: I personally do not believe men who beat women can change. And there’s some psychological research that says rapists can’t change. So I don’t know why we did that.

Carla: Did the BJ’s blow it by trading Thor?
Klaw: Nice pun. In hindsight, yes, I think so.

Brian: You said a few weeks ago that Austin Riley has slider bat speed. What does that mean for him going forward? Does it take away his chance of being an impact guy, or is it still doable with slider bat speed? Thanks.
Klaw: Slider bat speed means a guy who can’t catch up to average or better fastballs without cheating (starting his bat early). It’s not a good thing. I had heard that on Riley last year, and it’s what I saw in March. Let’s see how it plays out as he’s facing some better velocity in low-A this year.

Joe: When will you be updating the draft rankings? Thanks
Klaw: Next week. Eric and I have been working on them the last few days.

Bill: Aaron Sanchez looked awesome in his first start of the year. Got several whiffs (on some change-ups, too!). Have you had a chance to watch any of his start? No walks…reasons to be encouraged?
Klaw: Again, just one outing. Strikes are good, though.

Grant from Chicago: I noticed Cease, de la Cruz, Wilson and Hudson are still in XST. Thoughts on why they haven’t been assigned to South Bend?
Klaw: Why would they be? Cease isn’t even two years back from TJ and barely pitched last year. Hudson might stay in short-season all year. Wilson could too.

Mike: Last week you talked about how the college game can be very boring as the coaches micromanage. How does that affect how you scout the players? Is it difficult when players are constantly told to sac bunt or take pitches?
Klaw: Well it’s really hard to scout a hitter when the idiot coach bats him third and has him bunt in the first inning.

Jay: In the past you’ve talked about Dom Smith’s 70 throwing arm at 1B. Could you talk about the value of, say, an 80 arm at 1B versus a 50 arm there, over the course of a season? Never know how to weigh that. Thanks!
Klaw: It’s a small benefit but plays like the 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 double play become easier, or even the 3-5 play too. I’d say I never need my first baseman to have a plus arm, but it’s nice if he does.

Joe: If the Nats are thinking about Giolito as a second half asset would it make more sense to start him in AAA or does it not really matter?
Klaw: Don’t think it matters.

Drew: I know it’s early… but any insight on the Reds draft pick at #2 ? Do you see Corey Ray or Nick Senzel worthy of the pick.. maybe Rutherford ?
Klaw: Think those guys are all in their mix, plus Groome, Pint, maybe Delvin Perez. Puk is a wild card; if he misses any time (he came out on Sunday after 11 pitches due to back spasms) I have to think he slides.

Doug: Who are the top players for the 2017 draft?
Klaw: I don’t know much about the HS class but the college crop includes Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vanderbilt and Alex Faedo at Florida.

Devon Rosene: Hi, Keith. I suffer from severe anxiety and depression and your candidness on the subject has been very inspiring. Thank you for having the courage to be generous with your personal history.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and I hope you find treatment options that help you.

Justin: You wrote that the 4 rookies on the Reds rotation have a ton of downside and I assume that’s because they are inexperienced. But do you see any top of the rotation guys in there for the future?
Klaw: That was for this year, and it was inexperience, reliever risk (Finnegan), command/control risk (Stephenson especially), etc. Stephenson has ace stuff, highest upside of these arms.

Michael: If you were in charge of the Jays, what kind of punishment would you give Gibbons? Assume you didn’t know this side of him or inherited him.
Klaw: I think it has to come from MLB and will. A large fine and a few days off would make it clear to other managers to watch their mouths. Then again, I thought Ausmus should have been sacked for making light of domestic abuse, and he’s still there.

Ty: After thinking Swanson would beat Albies to Atlanta I had a hard time thinking he’d be the SS of the future. Now, that Albies is ahead I think he will be the new SS. Disagree?
Klaw: Disagree. I think you’re reading too much into the assignments.

Mike: Do you plan on seeing Ian Anderson once the weather warms up in the Northeast?
Klaw: Yes, soon. He was snowed out yesterday though.

Jacob: Just an interested Jays fan. What did you think of Ricky Romero at the time he was drafted? Pretty sure you preferred Tulo, but did you still like Romero? How about David Purcey?
Klaw: Preferred Tulo. Thought Romero was lower-upside, mid-rotation maybe, with usual risk of any pitching prospect, while I thought Tulo was a star. I did not see Purcey pitch that spring (I saw the guys I just mentioned) but was concerned about his walk rates and that scouts were saying he was basically a two pitch guy.

Greg: Keith, there’s another baseball site that has Senzel as the #2 overall draft prospect. Are you anywhere near on board with that? It seems crazy for a guy with limited game power and defensive questions.
Klaw: That’s Baseball America. I don’t agree and we won’t have him near that high. I’m not saying they’re wrong or we’re right, but I share your concerns.

Keith: I’ve seen scouts rate Dom Smith’s arm as 50-55. I get that scouting is pretty subjective, but what is it that accounts for such large disparity between scouting opinions on something that should be pretty straightforward – arm strength, running, etc?
Klaw: You’ve seen scouts do that? Which scouts are sharing their reports with you?

wickethewok: Now that Gregory Polanco has signed an extension, whose contract is more valuable to the Pirates going forward between Polanco and Marte?
Klaw: I think Polanco’s going to end up the better player because I think he has a better approach at the plate and better overall feel for the game. As with everything else here, it’s just my opinion. If you want to argue Marte will be the more valuable player, I’ll listen.

Michael: Should the Yankees consider trading Gary Sanchez? With McCann under contract for a little while longer, it could become a misuse of resources, no?
Klaw: McCann has hit .232/.303/.421 as a Yankee. The misuse of resources might be playing him over Sanchez in 2017.

Ben: When scouting a pitcher, do you factor in at all how good they are themselves at the plate?
Klaw: Mostly no. But it’s one sign of athleticism, so that counts by proxy.

JR: In general, how many years does it take to evaluate how well a team did in any particular draft? 3? 5? More?
Klaw: I think five years is fair. Sometimes you know sooner that a draft was a disaster, because of injuries or releases, but think of how long it took for Devon Mesoraco to become any sort of prospect, let alone a big leaguer.

Nik: You’ve always been pretty down on Maikel Franco, but everyone is predicting a major breakout – are you getting on that train?
Klaw: That’s totally inaccurate – I have not “always been pretty down” on him; I rated him in the top 100 once, had him as a breakout prospect the year before, and still had him second or third in the system last year. I don’t think he has a very good approach at the plate, but as I tweeted last night, he’s crazy strong, and he can drive a lot of pitches most hitters can’t keep fair. I think he’ll be a good player, an above-average regular, but I am not predicting a major breakout.

Tom: You picked the Angels to finish 4th. Why the optimism?
Klaw: Average depth. Terrible top ten.

David: Do you think Manny Margot gets more than a cup of coffee with the Padres this year? What’s his upside?
Klaw: At this rate he’ll be their cleanup hitter by Tuesday.

Jacob: I remember a scout in Lansing saying he couldn’t believe Syndergaard signed for only $600k out of high school. Was he a guy who just wanted to sign or was he somewhat unheralded in high school?
Klaw: Totally unheralded. Only 4-5 teams were really on him, and only two were on him where the Jays took him. He was 88-92 to start his senior year and had no breaking ball. He also had some local attorneys rather than major agents as advisers, which may have hurt him in terms of getting the word out.

Andy: My issue with the Caucasians shirt is that I’ve seen some people say, “Well I’m not offended by that and I’m white, so clearly no one should be offended by the Wahoo image.” I almost wish it were more offensive.
Klaw: That’s because those people are stupid. The Caucasians shirt isn’t offensive; it’s jarring because we never see white people objectified like that. If you saw it, you reacted to it, because it’s so rare.

Adam: Do you think Mallex will be comparable or better than Inciarte?
Klaw: Better runner but much less juice.

Greg: Given that this draft is more depth than star power, does it make sense for teams up top to try cutting under slot deals with their first pick and load up on quantity, since there isn’t a ton of quality?
Klaw: The CBA all but mandates that unless you’re getting a Strasburg/Harper type. Everyone up top expects to sign their player for the slot figure of the subsequent pick, a difference that in the top few picks is near a million dollars of savings.

John: What position would you project Jeimer Candelario to play in the bigs if he were to be traded from the Cubs? How close would he be to the MLB if he wasn’t blocked by a star like Kris Bryant?
Klaw: Left field.

Mark: After a ho-hum first two years, Cavan Biggio looks to have turned the corner. Where does he go in the draft ?
Klaw: I think fourth-fifth rounds, maybe third because he’s famous, but he’s not actually having that great a year (in a bad conference) and he’s not very tooled up.

cj: Do you think the braves would take a chance on blake rutherford
Klaw: I expect him to be on their short list. He might be the best pure hit tool in the class.

JG: Is this Rickard kid for real?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth OF and didn’t think so when he was in Tampa’s system.

Eric: At what point in the draft do you believe it is no longer to early to select a pitcher that will, in all likelihood, end up as a reliever (even a high-caliber reliever)?
Klaw: Depends a little on the draft, but I would not do this in the first round.

Ryan: Can Albert Almora be the Cubs everyday CF next year or will he not hit enough?
Klaw: Leaning towards yes.

addoeh: If you had a chance to go back in time and watch one former prospect in action, who would it be?
Klaw: I’d want to go back to see some of the Negro League stars like Cool Papa Bell.

JR: I’m still in awe that you read 100+ books in 2015. I average approximately 36 books/year and have tried to bump that up this year. Despite my best efforts, I’m still only on pace for around 50 books. Be honest, did you use PEDs to help your reading performance in 2015 (and don’t claim any TUE bullshit)?
Klaw: Caffeine!

Mike: Do you think this is the year Dominic Smith shows his power potential and what do you think of Rosario staying in the Florida State League?
Klaw: I expect more power from Smith now that he’s in a neutral environment, and the Mets do too. I imagine Rosario moves north in a month or so. He shouldn’t spend long in St. Lucie as I don’t think that park does him any favors either.

Vance: Yes there was bad weather with Trout, but that happens many years, so how do teams compensate for that?
Klaw: That year was exceptionally bad. I’ve certainly never seen a prospect lose as many games to weather as he did.

Mike: Do you buy that age questions regarding HS players ie. Rutherford turning 19 before the Draft?
Klaw: I think it’s a variable to consider, but not a reason to ignore a prospect with ability, nor is exceptional youth a reason to elevate a player. Delvin Perez will be 17.5 on draft day, but I rate him very highly because he probably has the best overall tools package in the draft (along with questions about his maturity).

Greg: With Rutherford being 19, does that ever equate to a guy moving faster through the minor leagues?
Klaw: If you think Rutherford is as advanced as a 19-year-old HS hitter should be, someone who’d be ready to go out to the Midwest League next year at about 20 and who would finish 2018 in double-A (so three levels total across two full seasons), then he’ll be right on schedule and you should just take him.

Jim: Keith, In New York we are going to a $15 minimum wage. can you help me understand how this is a good thing and not something that will hurt small businesses and change the service industry?
Klaw: “In recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.” http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

Threat Level Midnight: With my amateur scouting eye and 4 innings of watching him pitch, I feel like Stephenson lacks a putaway pitch. Was this a comment about him as a prospect?
Klaw: He’s not locating well today. The CB and change have both flashed plus in the minors, so I think the putaway pitch would be there if he had any command today. Of course this game just turned into a dumpster fire so who knows what happens next.

Michael Scarn: With a year of retrospect, what do you think the Athletics were thinking with the Butler contract?
Klaw: Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now.

Christian: Do you think teams should start to open facilities in Europe the same way they do in the DR and South America to both grow the game and get a chance at untapped talent that isn’t as scouted as often? Thank you again.
Klaw: MLB has facilities they run there, and I don’t think teams would try to compete on a macro level with MLB. The facilities are necessary in the DR because they house players who might be so poor that they don’t have enough to eat or a proper bed in which to sleep. That’s not necessary in most of Europe, although it could become appealing to do that in a place like Uganda, where baseball has started to catch on and we might start to see players sign pro contracts soon.

James: Do you think the Brewers would go arm or bat at #5? Thanks!
Klaw: Best player available.

Jon: What’s a good book to give to a 12 year old. Any literature that is accessible for that age?
Klaw: Depends on what kind of reader s/he is but the Harry Potter books would certainly work, as would Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series and Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle series – all stuff I’ve read with my daughter.

Jay: Is there anyone in the Giants system that you would project as a #1/#2 type starter?
Klaw: No, but you could make an argument for Bickford, who will show that kind of fastball/slider. I don’t love the arm action and I know there were questions about his back and shoulder prior to the draft.

Adam: Best Slider? Harvey, Thor, Fernandez or Archer? I think thats the best 4 anyway
Klaw: Sale and Kershaw are standing on your porch right now and would like a word.

PhillyJake: Do you know of a team not drafting the best player available?
Klaw: Teams do it sometimes, but it’s less and less common because it never works out and often gets you fired.

Ridley Kemp: Who do you think has a chance to be MLB’s “Leicester City,” a totally out of the blue worst to first story? P.S. Yes, I am only asking this question to mention my beloved Foxes, why do you ask?
Klaw: Of the six last-place teams from last year, the only ones I could see reaching the playoffs would be the Tigers and Red Sox, and in Boston’s case, it wouldn’t be totally out of the blue at all.

Steve: If Seth Beer had stayed in HS, would he have gone 1.1 ?
Klaw: I don’t think so. He will be 19.75 on draft day this year and scouts didn’t see his hit tool the way they see Rutherford’s. But it turns out he’s pretty good at the whole hitting thing.

Will: Have you read Sam Hinkle’s 13 page resignation letter?
Klaw: Don’t know who that is. Sounds like you made the name up.

Christian: If you had to project, do you think expansion happens within the next ten years? I know their are a few markets that could support a team and baseball is always looking to make more money. Thank you again.
Klaw: Yes, for the reasons you outlined. But I don’t think MLB has any real desire or incentive to expand outside the US right now.

Marshall: The only reason I can see a team not drafting “BPA” is if they are targeting a player that is going to fall because of contract demands and want to use some of their salary allocation on him. But that scenario hasn’t seemed to happen in real world very frequently.
Klaw: That’s a good point that I really should have mentioned. Sometimes you will pass on BPA because he wants more than slot, and you can do better by taking the second (or maybe third) guy on your board and then getting an overslot guy later. I apologize for not putting that into my earlier answer because it has happened a couple of times.

Andy: Re: Relievers in the 1st round, you and I were more valuable major league players than Matt Anderson.
Klaw: I truly cannot see that ever happening again.

Tommy Moore: What are your thoughts on how showcases have become the main way for kids to be seen by colleges and scouts? Does the air it out for 2 innings mentality leaD to pitcher injuries, as some have speculated? Do pitchers not learn to handle adversity when no scores are kept and innings are usually rolled after 6 batters?
Klaw: There are benefits – much better competition is the main one – but yeah, air it out for an inning or two because you see 50 guns there certainly isn’t helping anyone’s health.

Goldenface: You said in your team projected standings article that the Angels have “one of the 10 best starters in the league”. Was this a misprint, or do you believe that Garrett Richards is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball?
Klaw: In the league. Not in baseball. There are two leagues. Have been for a while now.

Scott: Do you think the US as a whole has gotten to the point where the majority of citizens are socially progressive? As disheartening as these BS “Religious Freedom” bills are, the immediate backlash to it is encouraging, and stronger than it would have been even 10 years ago.
Klaw: I think there’s a large geographic divide, where 2/3 of the country is looking at the other 1/3 like they’re crazy. (I know there are dissenters to these bills in the south and supporters in the north and west too.) I do think the backlash and the economic cost of legislated bigotry are going to change some laws even if they don’t change hearts and minds. And if you’re with a company looking to relocate jobs from North Carolina or Mississippi or any other hate-states, Delaware has low taxes and equal protection for LGBT people!

Grant: You said that the Cubs aren’t extremely well built for October, but that they have the assets to add another SP for the playoffs. Is Arrieta-Lester-Lackey really not a good enough playoff 1-3?
Klaw: You think lackey is better than I do, i infer.

Andy: Does anyone know if the Astros had Correa as BPA or if he was actually #2 or 3 on the board? I mean that was seen as a non-BPA pick at the time.
Klaw: Nah, I had him slightly behind Buxton, and I think I said at the time it was a matter of opinion. I believe they had both guys in their mix till the last few minutes, but that said, I know they were on Correa for a while.

Rob: Isn’t drafting the best available player only relevant in the first half of the first round. Is there much difference between the 19th and 20th picks, so if one is a pitcher and one is a position player and a team needs to stock up on pitching, won’t they go for the pitcher?
Klaw: No, that’s a terrible strategy. If you think the pitcher is better, sure, take him, but if you think the hitter is better, don’t take the pitcher because you think you need pitching more. The biggest problem with doing that is that predicting what you’ll need 3-5 years down the road is really hard.

Ryan: I hated the Cubs trade for Matt Garza at the time, it was more about a GM trying not to get fired instead of improving the overall health of the system. In retrospect it looks terrible now, Archer is a bonafide ace and the Cubs ended up getting three releivers for him. Why do GMs make trades that even normal fans know will not work out?
Klaw: Imagine how much worse it would look if Hak-Ju Lee hadn’t blown out his ankle and had become at least some kind of big leaguer.

Joe: How much does the AJ Pollock injury hurt the Dbacks going forward this year? Its hard for me to believe that they have depth to make the postseason unless a bunch of unexpected players break out this season.
Klaw: I would guess it costs them three wins if not more in the standings. Brutal timing for a brutal loss.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for reading, for your questions here, and for watching the game last night. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday next week to do this again. Look for me on ESPNU tonight around 7:15 pm ET talking draft stuff on College Baseball Live.

Klawchat, 3/31/16.

Klaw: The Klawchat that should not be.

Mike: What do you honestly think of Sam Travis? I’ve heard very different comparisons. So really do not know what to think.
Klaw: I’m a fan: He can hit, and he has average power, probably a slew of doubles and 12-18 homers when he’s at his peak. It’s not explosive like Schwarber, but it’s more mechanically clean and simple. I’ve heard some comparisons too and most of them are dumb, which is another reason why I dislike player comps (yet, circularly speaking, also a reflection of that previously held belief on my part).

JR: Hopefully you went pee before this chat; wouldn’t want you to hold it in the entire time. I hear that can cause health issues.
Klaw: I did! I did! In the toilet, too!

Dave: Thoughts on Amed Rosario supposedly starting in St Lucie again?
Klaw: Not a fan, although I haven’t heard the reasoning.

Nate: Keith, do you think the QO will be completely eliminated in the next CBA?
Klaw: Doubt it. owners cling to it as a drag on free agent salaries (how’s that workin out for ya, fellas).

Craig: With Houston and Texas both acquiring catchers this spring, is there a market left for Lucroy?
Klaw: I’d argue there’s never a lack of a market for a top-end catcher. Demand always outstrips supply.

Mike (DC): Thoughts on Vince Velasquez — can he hold up as a starter and how high is the ceiling?
Klaw: Hasn’t held up for a full season yet. Above-average starter ceiling.

Brian: Keith, You saw Anderson Espinosa this week. Is he really as good as the hype?
Klaw: Mostly. He doesn’t look 18 in delivery, feel, body. It’s a ridiculous fastball at the top end of its range and he showed he could spin a plus breaking ball. I didn’t see the great changeup and he had the command of an 18-year-old. But still, how often does a high school senior look like this? Once every other year?

Mario: How do you rate Matt Chapman, a fringe player, a soild regular, or the potential to be more?
Klaw: Solid regular.

James: Have a friend whose girlfriend just told him that she has anxiety and been on meds for awhile. Is there a website or something he can read to better understand what she is going through?
Klaw: I’ve written a bit about having it, including this and this. I know Kat Kinsman has a book (Hi, Anxiety) on it coming out in April or May too.

Aaron: ESPN apparently projects only one MLB team to win 90 games this season. Seem odd to you?
Klaw: This is a common problem of projection systems, most of which rely on simulating the season a huge number of times. Those sims will give you the average results for each team, which are flattened out by the huge number of samples. Real life produces outliers.

Nick: Do you think Nicasio will end up as a viable starter for the Pirates?
Klaw: I’d still call it an upset. I think there’s value in the arm, somewhere, although based on his history I’d say in relief. What his March performance showed us is that he might be a decent major-league pitcher again. I don’t see how you can extrapolate from those few innings, ignore his entire history, and say he’s going to be great (which you did not do in your question anyway).

Alan: I finally got around to listening to your top 100 songs for 2015. It’s a great list of a lot of music I otherwise would not have been exposed to. Here’s my beef, whenever I talk to people, they’re like “man, that song is old”. Any thoughts on some more real time music updates?
Klaw: I do one every month. Also, who says a song from 2015 is “old?”

John: I am a student at GW. For our annual spring event, the program board got Action Bronson to perform. Some students protested in response to this due to his 2011 song “consensual rape” and the program board decided to remove him. He was supposed to perform saturday. I wanted your thoughts on “safe spaces” at universities and the fact that you could pick out misogynistic lyrics from almost any big-name rapper. Did the school make a mistake in listening to a vocal minority of students who didn’t want him to perform?
Klaw: I’m not clear on why a college campus needs a rapper (or any music artist) to perform. Aren’t you there for education? You can certainly go somewhere else to see live music performed.

Steve: With all of the problems finding starters in Cincinnati, why have they given up on Cingrani? They are going to lose anyway, why not let him start and see if he can make it work?
Klaw: I’m assuming it’s because he couldn’t throw strikes last year.

Brian: Do you talk about baseball over here at The Dish?
Klaw: Only in chats. Otherwise it’s all non-baseball stuff: books, cooking, restaurants, music, boardgames, Top Chef, movies.

Joe: Trevor Bauer lost spot in Indians rotation to Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson. Can he be dynamic out of a bullpen?
Klaw: He can be effective in the bullpen if he throws strikes … but if he threw strikes, he’d be effective in the rotation too. I think this is a good move to try to hit the reset button with him a little since they already have other starter options, but I’m also figuring Bauer ends up making 20 starts this year when, say, Josh Tomlin turns back into a pumpkin.

Matt: Which Sox prospect has the higher ceiling, Benentedi or Devers?
Klaw: Devers.

Joe: Jays make the right choice in going with Sanchez?
Klaw: I don’t think so.

Sean: Do you have a World Series prediction for the 2016 season?
Klaw: My entire predictions column goes up Saturday.

Zach: Do you think Wil Myers could have a breakout year in ’16?
Klaw: You should read my column of 2016 breakout player picks.

Paul: Not sure I’ve ever seen you use the word ‘disgusting’ to describe a pitch until I read the Michael Fulmer piece. That isn’t really a question, and I have no rooting interest in the Tigers, but it got me pretty excited to watch him when I get the chance. #fyeahbaseball
Klaw: I have to admit that I heard another Tigers’ pitcher say that, and liked it enough to … uh … borrow it.

Corey: Before his move off of 3rd base in the minors, was Travis Shaw anything special there? Think he’ll produce enough to hold the spot for the whole season?
Klaw: I’ve never seen him play it, but given his body type and what I’ve seen at first, I doubt it’ll be good enough.

Jeff: Will you be eating at any of Paul Qui’s restaurants in the future? I ask because you have a very correct and hard stance against violence towards women.
Klaw: I can tell you no, but it’s hardly a boycott when there’s no chance I’ll be in Austin any time soon.

Eric: Have you read The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek?
Klaw: No. Is it about high school football and basketball players going to NCAA division 1 schools?

Bill S: What is your opinion of John Gant? Do you think the Braves should test him out as the fifth starter to begin the season until Folty is ready?
Klaw: Fifth starter if that. Would prefer to see Aaron Blair in that spot.

Foz: I usually appreciate hearing your views on certain things outside of baseball, that said, do you have any thoughts on the Lakers situation involving Young and Russell?
Klaw: I have no idea what you’re talking about.

Paul: I saw your brief writeup about the Twins leaving Berrios in the minor leagues. Can you expand further on why the fuck they decided to do this? I feel like at some point it has to be discouraging for a player like Berrios, who worked so hard to force the Twins’ hand, still ends up a victim to the 2 month later callup.
Klaw: It’s not entirely the Twins’ fault – the CBA gives teams incentive to do this. Aaron Gleeman also pointed out that they bounced Duffey, a fringe prospect who was way better than expected in two months last year with the Twins, in favor of Nolasco’s dead contract.

Keith: What’s the outlook on Profar offensively? If you had to guess, do you think he’ll still be a star?
Klaw: I do. I hope he destroys AAA and forces a callup.

Mike: How would you compare the overall package Thor has (especially now with the deadly 2 seamer and slider he’s added simce coming up) to the overall arsenal of Lucas Giolito?
Klaw: Thor’s is more advanced now, but Giolito’s stuff has been better at the same age every year since each emerged as prospects.

Jonathan Orr: Who will have the better season, Grichuk or Piscotty?
Klaw: Bigger fan of Piscotty’s swing and approach. Grichuk will probably hit more HR, though.

Nik: Based on your team rankings, you don’t think Andrew Knapp can hit enough as a regular. Yet you praised his pick when he was drafted and he tore it out last season in AA. Do you think that was just a mirage?
Klaw: Yes, I don’t think he’s going to hit like that against better pitching. I praised the pick as a high-floor catcher, which he his. He will play in the majors for sure, probably for a lot of years.

Danny: What did you think of Gabe Encinas? Is he strictly RP?
Klaw: I had him wrong yesterday – the HR by Kang was off Herrera, not Encinas. Encinas was more 93-94 with a decent slider, but I didn’t see a long enough outing to say starter or reliever. (Well, I could say “reliever,” because that’s always the easy answer.)

Xenophanes: Do you think it is appropriate for the Rays and MLB to allow Andrew Bellotti to perform in the majors, given that he killed a man several years ago?
Klaw: That’s a pretty shady – and shitty – way to phrase it. Bellatti was goofing off behind the wheel, driving 80 mph and eventually crossing into oncoming traffic, when his car hit another, which killed the other car’s 50-year-old driver. He was sentenced to 8 months in jail and 5 years probation, which seems incredibly light to me. But “he killed a man” would give most people the impression that he murdered someone.

EC: What do Nats have to do to overtake Mets? Is it as easy as bringing up Giolito and Turner and letting them play?
Klaw: Fire their manager?

AJ: RE Rosario, mets say he will move to Binghampton when weather warms up
Klaw: He’s going to have to learn to play in the cold at some point.

Tim: With the (relative) failures to shine of Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo – has the Cuban FA wave finally crested? Those deals look like potential albatrosses (at least in Castillo’s case). OR is this another example of the risk teams are willing to take on unproven foreign talent?
Klaw: Don’t think it has crested, so much as the pool has thinned. There will still be stars (I am very high on the Dodgers’ Yusnier Diaz), but there will be more misses, and teams will keep spending on these players because the payoff is still high.

addoeh: Will you be broadcasting more from MLB games now, like you did Monday?
Klaw: I was told I’ll be on at least four games this season, coming on for a few innings to discussing scouting-related topics. The first is April 6th, Phils at Reds, two teams that are focused on the future, meaning I’ll talk prospects.

Arin: Is there any reason why Jose Peraza should make the opening day roster for the Reds? It makes no sense turning him into a super sub, right?
Klaw: I would not do this. He didn’t hit in AAA last year, so send him back there and let him try to make some adjustments.

Paul: Hi Keith – how painful is it for you to actually watch college games when scouting players? Between the 1950’s strategies (bunting at crazy moments, …), the 25 high-fives every minutes, the boy scout athmosphere where players are treated like they are 12, the slow rythm (catcher and hitter waiting for instructions every pitch), it is kind of a torture to me even if I enjoy college sports in general and I love baseball.
Klaw: I do not enjoy that style of sport. I’m a fan of players, but not of college baseball. It’s so poorly managed that it doesn’t sufficiently resemble the sport I love.

Mike: Keith … If not Groome at 1.1, then who do the Phillies settle for ?
Klaw: Your mistake is saying “settle.” Why would you assume Groome is the top prospect when so many folks, myself included, believe that this class lacks a clear 1-1 guy? I’d take Corey Ray there right now, although I think Blake Rutherford, Delvin Perez, and perhaps even Braxton Garrett could make cases to go that high.

Joe: I was glad Tyler Naquin made Cleveland’s roster. Why do so many teams try to seem low upside retread veterans rather than just going with a young guy? Especially if the young guy can field his position well?
Klaw: Obsession with service time? Naquin isn’t 20. By the time he’s ready for free agency, his peak years will probably be behind him.

Scott: What is that picture on your twitter profile? (Not the pie)
Klaw: The background? A painting by the Swiss-German surrealist Paul Klee, titled The Twittering Machine.

Danny: Do you think Domingo Acevedo can stick as a starter? How does his pitching mix compare to Severino at similar points in the minors?
Klaw: I don’t think there is any chance at all he can be a starter. He has one pitch and a high-effort delivery that will inhibit his command.

Jeremy: What’s your take on the 538 article investigating the home run spike at the end of last season? Why did scoring go up?
Klaw: Unless the ball changed there’s no tangible reason to think this was anything more than a fluke.

Nathan: Would a hypothetical offer of Devers, Benintendi and Brian Johnson be enough to entice the A’s to trade Sonny Gray?
Klaw: I’d have to think the A’s would jump through their computer screens to take that offer.

Mike: Are you in the side that thinks the Dodgers still compete for a World Series or the side where they lost Greinke so they are destined to be horrible?
Klaw: Still competing, but flawed.

DO: I’m 3/4 of the way through Station 11. Not typically my kind of book, but it is exceptionally well written. Read it if you haven’t.
Klaw: I just read it last month (and wrote it up here, something I’ve been slacking on lately). It is indeed wonderful.

Chris: Do you see Nick Banks being taken in the first round this June or have several others passed him by now?
Klaw: He’s slipped. Reports are that he’s gotten stiff and people are questioning the hit tool, which was his best attribute.

Ian: Outside of just wanting him to be a good player, do you think that if Max Kepler was really good, it might increase baseball interest in Europe?
Klaw: I do, so I’m hoping he comes out strong. Then I can get that scouting trip to Berlin in 2021!

addoeh: I think I know the answer, but Beatles or Stones?
Klaw: Beatles. Not even a huge fan of their stuff, but they had better peak stuff and their catalog as a whole is much more interesting to me.

Scott: Do you imagine a scenario in which society as a whole is able to actually take significant steps to mitigate climate change, or are we too far gone at this point?
Klaw: We will, when the threat becomes more real to more people, by which point it might be too late.

Andy: Re The Rolling Stones. I bet I could make a 20 song greatest hits CD that would encompass almost everyone’s favorite song, as well as be interesting to listen to musically. 20 songs in a 50 year career. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not, but they certainly don’t belong in any list of greatest groups of all time.
Klaw: I knew when I tweeted that list of hot takes that it would get a lot of negative reactions, but it was in keeping with my tweet right before it about my dislike of Springsteen. But the lack of objectivity in responses surprised me: People confuse what they love with attempts to speak in an objective fashion about music (or film or art). If you prefer listening to the Stones, by all means, do so. But if you want to argue that they crafted more complex music, more technically demanding music, or more intelligent lyrics, well, best of luck.

Chris: With your recent positive viewing of Beau Burrows, would you add him in your top 100?
Klaw: No. I wouldn’t change the top 100 based on a few spring innings.

Jack: Puk and Hansen haven’t shown anything to make me think the Phillies would consider them at 1.1 . You’ve previously stated they won’t pick a HS pitcher. Who then ?
Klaw: I answered this above but will say you’re right about those two guys.

Chris: Is Nick Senzel the top college bat this year, and do you see him going top 3?
Klaw: No he’s not, and it’s possible but I would not say it’s likely.

Matt: Hey Keith, when is the earliest we see AJ Reed? Thanks for putting him on my radar last year.
Klaw: June 1st ish?

EC: Any logic to giving Osuna the closer role over Storen? Storen a FA next year, and Osuna could get $$ in arb for the saves.
Klaw: I wouldn’t get too worked up about it. Maybe 50/50 chance they end up switching roles at some point.

Aaron: The Rangers’ Matt Bush “second-chance” experiment has generated some fan heat in DFW. What’s your opinion?
Klaw: He served his time and has gotten treatment for his addiction. If they’re willing to cut bait after any violation, then I’m fine with it. I’d feel differently if he’d been convicted of rape or domestic abuse, because I don’t think those are behaviors that go away. (I read a piece just this morning on how paraphilias such as the need for coercion during sex are immutable.)

Bill: o Arica, T Turner or Story long term, bat only?
Klaw: Arcia.

EC: Why doesn’t MLBPA file a grievance against Yankees/Marlins for the beard policy? I remember a few years back Nats tried to do it too… didn’t last long.
Klaw: Nobody has cared enough. If Giancarlo Stanton or Jose Fernandez wants to grow a beard, the policy will quietly disappear.

Andrew: Thoughts on Orioles handling of Kim? Poor initial talent evaluation or not enough AB’s to make a judgement? Or both?
Klaw: If you’ll permit me to post some totally baseless speculation on my part: I think the O’s front office, scouting and/or analytics, liked him and signed him, but then Buck got a look at him in spring training and said “I can’t use this guy.” Totally, absolutely, one hundred percent a guess on my part. No matter what the reason, however, leaking that shit to the press was wrong. Don’t embarrass the player; you’d never do that to a US-born guy.

Andy: 30 games for Jose Reyes is the baseline, based on the Chapman suspension right? From reading about it, Reyes seems more serious, with more witnesses, as well as slightly less ambiguity.
Klaw: Gotta be. Hoping for more.

Shaheen: Any chance Moniak goes top-5?
Klaw: I really like him, but even that might be a stretch in the eyes of the teams drafting there.

David: What are your predictions for Byron Buxton this season? Is .260 / 15 HR / 40 SB reasonable?
Klaw: If he does that with some walks and plus-plus defense I’d call it a huge win for everyone.

John: Better Rule-5 selection from the Rays system: Joey Rickhard or Tyler Goeddel? Think either could supply league average corner OF offense?
Klaw: Goeddel. He might. I don’t get the Rickard fascinating. Good makeup, limited tools.

John: What is Profar’s ultimate position?
Klaw: Shortstop.

donny: draft on saturday, completely stuck on who to go with, swanson or benentendi. whatever name you type is the guy im going with.
Klaw: I just don’t know fantasy well at all. I’m guessing Benintendi will be better for that because defense usually doesn’t matter.

NG: Keith – As someone who has been open with mental illness issues in the past, I’m wondering if you could provide any guidance. My brother has long lived a life of relative luxury compared to myself and has never had to make any sacrifices. He was recently diagnosed with moderately severe mental illness (mild bipolar, narcissistic personality disorder, a few other things), and it’s caused a lot of resentment as the doctors are recommending a treatment plan that does not force him to change his privileged lifestyle, as any severe disruptions could make the issues worse. How can I, as someone who works a menial 40 hour a week job to fund my own business without any help, manage my emotions and resentment towards a family member who receives resources and assistance with their life that I do not receive?
Klaw: This has to be something you work out with a psychotherapist. I’m certainly not qualified (nor do I want to pretend to understand what issues you might have had with your brother earlier in life), but I very strongly recommend finding a good talk therapist to try to work on it. You may learn things about yourself that help you become a better person. I know therapy did this for me.

Mike: Trayce Thompson…4A player, 4th OF or solid regular?
Klaw: Chance for a solid regular. Chance he’s just a 4th. Better than 4A.

John: My brother’s fav place to eat is red robin and my parents is Olive Garden, should I change my last name?
Klaw: Did you grow up in the parking lot of a mall?

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: You think firing the manager on the cusp of the season is what the Nats need? How about an honest answer?
Klaw: What the hell can they do now? They made their bed with the roster, the manager, and the coaches. They can’t go out and make the big trade or signing they might have needed.

DOS: Can you give us any insight as to why ESPN.com has almost completely abandoned the live chat format? Was a big reason that I subscribed to insider.
Klaw: The chats weren’t Insider.

Pig Bodine: BA mock draft has Riley Pint to Braves….would he be best player available at #3, or do you think they go college bat like Ray if available?
Klaw: I don’t do mocks this early for this very reason – you can’t base it on any actual insight on teams and preferences. I don’t think there’s any chance they take a very high-risk high school arm at 3, for example.

Matt: I know you firmly believe the Phillies won’t take groome at one, but why? I’ve seen plenty of credible people post mock drafts saying it will happen. Why is your opinion so strong that they won’t ?
Klaw: Because I base my opinions on industry gossip and knowledge of team strategies and preferences. This is why I wait to do mocks – until then, most of what I know is negative (“We won’t take Joey Bagodonuts there, no shot”) and not enough is positive.

Jon from the Rock: Keith, Now that Tyler White has made the team what can we expect from him? Is a Billy Butler or Kevin Youklis comp fair for him?
Klaw: I wouldn’t go with either of those. White can really hit, doesn’t have much power, will walk an adequate amount but I don’t think at Youkilis levels.

Ridley Kemp: Loved your sci-fi podcast a couple of weeks back. I’m reading Left Hand of Darkness now and loving it. Are you going to be a Hugo voter this year, and do you have any strong feelings about the slate issues last year?
Klaw: Can anyone vote? I haven’t read enough 2015 releases to have an opinion, though. I’ll start The Forever War in the next two weeks, I think. Just finished The Magicians’ Land last week, then a math book called the Unfinished Game by Keith Devlin, and am now reading James Alan McPherson’s Elbow Room (Pulitzer Winner 1979).

Jimmy: Follow up to question about Profar – he seems like a prime trade candidate if he can play the field every day? (i.e., can’t see him taking the SS job over Andrus or Desmond)
Klaw: What if Andrus doesn’t hit this year? At some point, don’t they have to get more production from that spot?

Cav: Have you ever read anything by Dr. Paul Offit? He has been an early and leading spokesperson debunking the autism-vaccine arguments and delves into other science vs. myth subjects. I think you would like his work.
Klaw: Yes, he’s one of the most important figures in American science and public health.

G: Thoughts on Alex Kiriloff for the draft? Seems some local papers in Pittsburgh are hoping he is the Pirates pick this year. Is he a reach around the back of the 1st round?
Klaw: I think he’s a back of the first round guy. Supposed to see him play down here tomorrow, which beats the five-hour drive to Pittsburgh.

Jimmy in Chicago: Hi Keith – I read a scout said Matt Davidson has shortened his swing and looks salvageable. Did you see him at all? Or hear anything along those lines?
Klaw: I’ve actually heard that too, and heard that last year he was mentally shot, but all of that doesn’t add up to anything to me until he starts hitting in games.

Michele: Is Nolan Arenado as good as he looked last year? At the risk of sounding simple, how did he get this good?
Klaw: I’d love to know how he went from being a 45 defender at third to maybe (probably?) an 80 defender there in the span of less than a year. Ask any scout who saw him in the AFL a few years ago – we were talking about the likelihood he’d need another position. That sounds totally ridiculous now.

JR: Have you read Magicians book 3 yet? I really enjoyed the trilogy and am enjoying the TV series so far.
Klaw: Finished last week. Loved reading it but the ending felt a bit victory lappish.

Darren: I see most projections for Ellsbury have him getting over 600 at bats. If you could what would you bet on the under?
Klaw: A year’s salary? Not only do I think he’ll get hurt, is he even good enough to get those at bats with Gardner and Hicks on the roster?

John: This Smoak could take another step forward this year? maybe post closer to league-average OBP in his current platoon role?
Klaw: Any improvement will be marginal. He was never the hitter in the majors that I thought he’d be. It really seemed like he got less strong once he reached the big leagues.

JR: I’m still shocked by how much AZ gave up for Shelby Miller, such an overpay. To help give me some context, if AZ had made the same trade for Matt Harvey, would you still have considered it an overpay given all they gave up?
Klaw: Probably not.

Ray A.: Is Giants Prospect Sam Coonrod more of a bullpen pitcher or will he stick as a starter? His stuff looks nasty, but I can’t tell if it’s starter or reliever-type stuff.
Klaw: Couldn’t find a scout who thought he’d start.

Mike: Is this the year Puig puts it all together and becomes a MVP candidate or is it time to lower expectations?
Klaw: I think he’ll be better than 2015 but not quite at 2013-14 levels. His exclusion from the BBTN 100 was total nonsense.

James: What is your favorite mlb ballpark to eat at and I mean food from the actual ballpark.
Klaw: Target Field and Citi Field both have great local options.

Craig: Could a guy like Groome fall to Milwaukee at 4? And given their long-term rebuilding project — where a lot of the talent is at levels below AA — would they consider a high-risk HS arm?
Klaw: Brewers pick 5th. I don’t think Groome gets out of the top 5. He could easily go 2. I kind of doubt the Rockies pass on him at 4.

Tom: Based on your subtly inspired intro, my own hot take (as a big fan) is Master of Puppets (closely followed by Seek and Destroy) is the most annoying, overrated core Metallica song.
Klaw: Oh man, I love that song, especially the severe tempo change mid-track. The riff behind “Obey your master” is one of my two or three favorite Metallica licks ever. The opening riff of “Blackened,” with the same series of notes played with just slightly altered tempos, is still my favorite.

Joe: Just playing devil’s advocate…after the toxic environment the Nationals seemed to have last year where their manager would sometimes passive aggressively call out the best player in the league, I wonder if having Dusty might actually work for them for a while. Yeah, he’s terrible strategically and has a history of abusing arms (more with the Cubs and Giants than Reds). But the players have loved him anywhere he has gone. The Nationals seem to be the type of team who might benefit from him because their raw talent can outplay his weaknesses, and his strengths are really a positive change.
Klaw: Everything you said is reasonable, although I think Reds players didn’t love him the way the Giants and Cubs did. My bigger concern is that his idea of how to run an offense is totally outdated. He was less abusive of arms in Cincinnati than in Chicago, and he doesn’t have young arms to wear out right now anyway.

Chris: Have you heard anything about Hunter Harvey this spring and how he’s recovered from missing so much time?
Klaw: Just strained his groin. He might want to sacrifice an oriole to the baseball gods.

Wade: What’s your policy on tipping when ordering food to go or at places that do not have continued service through your meal (i.e, pickup window/food truck)? $1 per item ordered?
Klaw: I might throw $1 in, but at those places the staff have to be paid at least minimum wage, whereas at table-service places where tips are the servers’ income, I never tip below 20% (you’d basically have to swear at me for hating your team to get me to tip 15%).

Bobby: What position is Sano playing 3 years from now?
Klaw: First base, DH, or Sanochatter.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thanks for the questions and bearing with my terrible schedule. I should be back to a normal routine next week.

Klawchat 3/17/16.

Klaw: In my backyard, sounds turn around, down fall apart, in Klawchat.

Brett: I know it’s way too early to talk about players and teams in the draft, but if Atlanta were to take Kyle Lewis, would you consider that a reach?
Klaw: Yes, I would. Think there will be too much swing and miss there. He’s faced some awful pitching so far.

Craig: I’m experimenting with curing and smoking my own bacon. Have you done it and do you have tips/spice recipes?
Klaw: Yep, I’ve used the recipe in Ruhlman’s 20 several times. Very easy to do yourself, and it destroys anything you’re going to buy in any grocery store.

Philip: When are you going to come out with initial draft rankings? Thanks
Klaw: We did, in November. I don’t know offhand when the next update will be.

Chris: When are you posting breakout player column. You do realize we are all scared to tell you it is the lynchpin of our fantasy draft strategy…..
Klaw: Next week.

Jeff Chisholm: Are kids invited to this chat?
Klaw: Yes but they can’t stay the whole time.

Ryan: What would be the more optimal solution: Moncada 3B Devers 1B, or Moncada RF Devers 3B?
Klaw: Moncada is at 2b now. If he can’t stay there, he’s going to the outfield.

Yasiel’s Pug: You had SS Garrett Hampson listed as a top-100 guy coming out of Reno High School but he opted to go to college. After three years at Long Beach, he’s draft eligible again. Has he helped his stock at all? What round do you see him going in this year?
Klaw: No, he’s failed to develop physically or offensively. He’s a 2b without any punch. I’d say 5th round or later.

Timbo: Dylan Cease is already drawing raves for a back field performance. What kind of upside does he have and how would he compare to some of the high school arms in last years draft…Allard and Russell?
Klaw: He was on my top 100 and I’ll refer you there for more. He’s not doing anything different this spring.

JayMac: Trayce Thompson has always struck me as one of those guys who ends up having more success in the bigs than in the minors. You think he has a real shot at being a regular out in center?
Klaw: I don’t see why that would specifically be the case for him, but he has gradually improved over the last two years to the point where I could see him becoming a low-OBP, 20-HR regular with plus-plus defense in center. If you’re the Dodgers, that’s probably better than what you can expect from Joc, right?

dutch: Alex Bregman eventually has to be traded, right? Only open spot for him is at 3B and you say he lacks the arm for it.
Klaw: I think he ends up trade bait, given how good Altuve’s contract is for the team.

Joe: What’s the guide for eating at Okra in Phoenix?
Klaw: Everything? It was all good but I particularly liked the pork bites with collard greens, the fried chicken with cornbread, and the warm donut with salted caramel.

Evan: Hi, can we send you something for your autograph? If so where?
Klaw: To ESPN in Bristol.

CubFanBudMan: Is there much of a chance of Espinoza being the top pitching prospect a year from now? Will he see AA this year?
Klaw: Can’t imagine they push him like that – I think it’s unreasonable to expect an 18-year-old to get to AA, especially when he’s on some kind of innings limit. It is reasonable to think he will be the top pitching prospect a year from now; assuming Giolito, Glasnow, and Urias all graduate, I think Espinoza might be the favorite.

Steve: My wife doesn’t understand why you went to Harvard to become a baseball writer / scouting professional. Maybe you can better explain how you ended up where you did on your journey and why you went to Harvard? I bet there is a good story there
Klaw: Your wife thinks I went to Harvard at 17 to become a baseball writer at 33? She seems a little confused.

Bill: Do you think Edwin Diaz has mid-rotation upside and a chance to contribute in Sea during the second half?
Klaw: No, I think he’s probably a reliever in the long run, although I would leave him as a starter for now to see if he exceeds expectations. I had three separate scouts who saw him in Jackson last year tell me they put him in as a future reliever.

Martin: Is Sam Travis good enough to play the big leagues?
Klaw: I assume you’re asking now rather than “ever,” since clearly the latter is true. Travis is a pretty advanced hitter, and wasn’t that far behind his teammate at IU, Kyle Schwarber, at the time of the draft. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Travis could hit in the majors right now.

Justin: Hey Keith. Is Peter O Brien a guy? Or just a guy who puts up good box score #’s? Anything more than an average player?
Klaw: Not even an average player. 80 raw power, below-average everything else, with no position.

Gabe: As a Reds fan, I am dumbfounded by the Simon signing. The team made a morality move in moving Chapman at all costs before the season began (which I supported), but now doesn’t mind having Simon back?
Klaw: Selective memories, I guess. I hope Reds fans voice their displeasure.

Bret: How would you advise the Jays handle Aaron Sanchez? He’s obviously a safer bet in the bullpen, but certainly still has upside as a starter, which is his preference. Even beyond pure performance, though, he probably couldn’t pitch enough innings as a starter to last through the whole year even if he succeeded.
Klaw: If he wants to start, he needs to change his delivery, and until that happens, they should leave him in relief where he has had and should continue to have success.

Michael Scarn: Xander Bogaerts had a 4.3 WAR year in 2015 but didn’t show nearly the power people expected, should he attempt to change his swing/approach for more power in 2016, or if he’s already a 4 WAR player is changing his approach not a risk worth taking?
Klaw: He’ll come into power in time. He was only 22; I think the added attention everyone pays to prospects now, plus the huge debuts of guys like Trout and Harper, have skewed expectations of what prospects will do right out of the gate.

Jamie: Do you think Rymer Liriano still has a chance to be a quality player?
Klaw: I do not.

Adam: Corey Ray — real deal or role player at the big league level?
Klaw: I think he’s an average to above-average regular. Top player in the draft class now, although to some extent that’s by default.

Tim: Why would Ken Williams ban LaRoche’s son?
Klaw: I really don’t care one iota about this story. It feels like it’s none of our business.

Vin: I’ve read a lot about the Giants transitioning Christian Arroyo to the outfield because of Joe Panik already being at 2B. Do you think he could handle a corner outfield spot?
Klaw: I think that’s a terrible idea, because Arroyo’s bat isn’t going to profile as well in LF/RF, because big leaguers get hurt all the time, and because Panik is not a franchise player who’d force you to move your best prospect to another position.

Zarms22: Thoughts on/potential of Candelario? Seems to be the flavor du hour in this years Cubs camp…
Klaw: Been on the radar for at least four years now – can definitely hit, not good at 3b.

addoeh: Enjoying a Guinness during the chat?
Klaw: Heh, I’m not even wearing green, and tonight I’m making an Asian steak salad for dinner.

Drew: Do you think any stats / performance during Spring Training are noteworth? As a Nats fan, it’s hard to disregard Espinosa’s awful start at the plate and Michael Taylor increased contact rate. Is it too early to draw any conclusions from these?
Klaw: I don’t look at spring training stats at all. All noise, no signal. Good for crappy articles and blog posts and terrible front office decisions.

Aubrey: Do you think I can expect the Astros to be a better team this year than last (more like a 90+ win team)? Full year from Correa, improved bullpen, hopefully some of the young guys can improve the 1B/DH production.
Klaw: Plexiglass Principle says no. Keuchel probably won’t repeat, McCullers is hurt, McHugh looks like a good bet to regress, lineup may not/likely won’t be as healthy, etc.

Aubrey: I know the Astros are saying it’s no big deal, but shoulder stuff is always scary in a young guy like McCullers, right?
Klaw: Especially with the long arm action.

David: Barring injuries, of course, do you think Max Kepler and Sean Manaea stick with the big clubs this year? And when do you think each will be called up? Thanks
Klaw: My guess is both guys spend about 2/3 of the season in the majors. Manaea looked ready to me in my brief ST look, but given his injury history starting him slow in the minors isn’t a bad idea.

Jaron: I wouldn’t want Simon on my favorite team nor Chapman. That said, if a criminal or accused criminal is eligible to work, why are you OK with them being a janitor, but not a ball player? What makes pro athlete job any more special?
Klaw: Where did I say I was OK with them being a janitor? If you’re going to show up to argue, then skip the straw men.

Dave: How are you not fat?
Klaw: People ask this all the time. It’s not like I’m eating 3000 calories a day.

Oren: Will Ketel Marte establish himself as a solid big-league shortstop?
Klaw: I’m very curious on this one. Even the M’s own people seemed to think he’d end up at second base, which presented a problem, of course, with Cano there. But if he’s really an average defender at short, which he appeared to be in his brief MLB time last year, he’s probably a four-win player at his peak.

Mike: I see that TJ Zeuch hasn’t pitched at all for U of Pitt this season. Do you know if he’s hurt ?
Klaw: Yes, I’d heard he was hurt before the season. I don’t remember why.

Adam: 75 wins for Atlanta — too optimistic?
Klaw: I’d say so.

Dave: Spring Training stats aren’t all noise. They’re mostly noise. But things like velocity and swing rate stabilize fairly quickly
Klaw: First of all, those aren’t stats. Second, stabilization doesn’t quite mean what fans take it to mean. It’s not saying that’s the player’s true talent level, for one important thing.

Drew: Your take on the worthlessness ST stats makes sense to me. That said, is it reasonable to be excited by Giolito’s composture / comfort level taking on major league hitters? What about his baking skills?
Klaw: I’d be concerned if a kid came into a MLB game, even an exhibition, and lost the strike zone … which I’ve seen a few times. Anecdotally speaking, it doesn’t generally end well. Also, Marzipan told me that Lucas’s baking has really improved lately.

Rob: The Mets cutting Tejada makes no sense to me if plan A at SS is an injured Asdrubal. Not a big deal, but it was nice to finally have some depth. What’s the rationale? Still pinching pennies? Faith in Reynolds as a backup? They’re just stuck in a roster jam after the terrible De Aza signing?
Klaw: Wonder if they felt he was hobbled by the aftereffects of the attempted murder by Chase Utley.

Wilson: How far will Alec Hansen fall in the draft?
Klaw: Going to depend on his medicals, I think, which we’ll likely hear nothing about. Even if he continues to have a lousy spring, at some point, maybe in the sandwich round, a team will take a shot at him if they think he’s at all fixable or if it’s an elbow issue they believe can be treated.

AJ: Hey Keith I’ve been intrigued by Sam Coonrod. Small sample size, but his stuff looked really good this spring and he had a good year in A ball. What are your thoughts on him from what you’ve seen? Projection?
Klaw: Reliever. Good stuff, reliever delivery and command.

Dave: Does the organization a prospect is in change your scouting report? For instance a guy might be a fringy defender at a position but he’s a Cardinals farm hand, so you give him the benefit of the doubt that they’ll coach him up?
Klaw: No, never, for the very simple reason that any player can be traded at any time.

Josh: The Padres are starting Margot in AAA. Is that a little aggressive?
Klaw: He’s a fairly advanced hitter. I don’t think it’s aggressive and it sets him up to see the majors midyear.

Dave: KLAW: Thanks for the chat. Your Braves Farm Team report on Swanson and Albies seemed to imply that both had mediocre arms. Which of the two is more likely to be defensively effective at short.
Klaw: I wouldn’t say mediocre, just not plus. I’d leave them both at short and let one or the other play himself off it. Swanson is probably the eventual winner but I think it’s something like 60/40.

Bucky: JD seems quite confident that Ian Desmond will be a plus OF. Have you any thoughts one way or another?
Klaw: Defensively? I truly have no idea. Plus, right out of the chute, would be surprising but not unprecedented. I’m more concerned about his bat, and about what his presence means for Profar, Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson.

Edmund: Is it too early to be encouraged by what we’ve seen from Taillon post-layoff?
Klaw: Not at all. It’s encouraging to have him healthy and on a mound, period.

Chris: Why would the Jays simply ignore Sanchez’s need to lengthen his stride to be a successful SP? You have made this point in the past and I’m wondering what could be preventing the club from addressing it.
Klaw: Perhaps the player doesn’t want to change.

Mike: Have you heard anything on where Lazaro Armentaros may end up ?
Klaw: Nothing. He’s been so overhyped anyway that I’m much more interested in other names.

Dave: Considering that Anthony Alford performed so well despite taking significant time off, do you think he’s a candidate to be moved aggressively and challenged, or does he need substantial seasoning to make up for the missed reps?
Klaw: I wouldn’t consider his history so much as his present performance. If they send him back to high-A, and he rakes, they should be prepared to move him up to AA quickly. Let his bat tell you where he needs to play. Don’t hold him back somewhere just because he’s inexperienced.

Paul: Will I ever see a two way player in my life time? As we understand better how our bodies work, as athletes know more about nutrition and preparation, I would think that a franchise would give it a try no? Thanks
Klaw: As baseball becomes increasingly specialized and players become better, the baseline skill level to do any one thing at a major-league level keeps getting higher. That’s why we won’t see two-way players. It’s why pitchers shouldn’t hit (and people who say pitchers who don’t hit are only playing half the game are complete idiots). It’s also why we’re unlikely to see another .400 hitter, or see other records smashed aside from the one-time effect of expansion years.

Dave: That’s a rather odd way to put things – Velocity and Swing Rate aren’t statistics. And while many people misunderstand the meaning of various statistical terms, the fact remains that Spring Training stats aren’t all noise. There is some amount of signal there and parsing it out leads to better understanding of player performance.
Klaw: This is not a “fact.” You’re dealing with fewer than 30 games of performance, much of it against competition that is well below what the same players would face in April through September. You’re wasting your time looking for signal when 20% of the player’s at bats might have come against double-A arms.

KC: Friend of mine has a son who is a junior in high school. Tops out at 88, but is 6’5′, 250. He’s already been scouted by pro scouts who told his Dad that he has a future and was offered numerous D1 full rides before his first varsity game. Is that normal because he’s projectable?
Klaw: Is he projectable? At 6’5″, 250, “projecting” would mean that he ends up weighing, what, 280?

J: Friedman’s downplaying it, but should LA be concerned about Kazmir’s diminished velocity?
Klaw: I’d be concerned if he’s still throwing like that in the last week of March. I think I remember that John Lackey was always a slow starter for spring velocity.

Dave: Is the league ever going to have a pre-draft workout similar to the NFL combine just so they can get medical reports on the top prospects?
Klaw: I know there’s movement in that direction on all sides, but the league and the union will have to agree on specifics in the next CBA negotiation and get the NCAA to agree to let HS players attend too.

Josh: In your prospect write-up of Hunter Renfroe, I believe you said he had a 4A bat to go with plus tools everywhere else. Does that equal a regular or just a 4th OF?
Klaw: I felt like it puts him on the fence (and thus me too). He might hit just enough to be a regular, and he might fall just short and be a 4th OF. He’s right at that inflection point for me, although if forced to choose I’d say 4th OF.

Rob: Any updates on Nick Howard or Jonathan Crawford for the Reds? Have not seen or heard their names once this spring.
Klaw: Nick Howard had the yips last year and I would probably forget about him for now.

Dave: Is there any reason to think Tyler Duffey’s last 9 starts was more than just a good run?
Klaw: Glass half full says his much-improved K% was the result of a better CB than he’d ever had before, I think. Glass half empty (like ZiPS) says he’s probably the same guy he was all through his minor league career. I tend toward the latter.

Clarence: I know you’re high on E Rodriguez and the Baws Joe Ross – any other non-prospect pitchers you think could make the leap to legit #2(ish) this year?
Klaw: That’ll be in the breakout column. I am indeed high on both of those guys. Ross is legit – bet on the athletes.

A: Hi! A few weeks ago you seemed adamant the Phillies wouldn’t take Groome at 1.1- is this a talent thing, a high school pitcher thing, or something else?
Klaw: All of the above. Particularly do not think they’ll take a HS pitcher at 1-1, though. It goes against draft history and the specific philosophies of the new regime. If we were talking Brady Aiken – who was historically good at the time of the draft – that might be different, but there is no Aiken in this draft, much less a Harper or Strasburg.

Tim: Chris Colabello’s bat: fluke or legit?
Klaw: Fluke.

Bucky: Should Rangers trade Lew Brinson (and lesser pieces) for Derek Norris + Tyson Ross?
Klaw: No. Brinson’s upside is too big, Ross’s injury risk and command problems are too big, and Norris isn’t a very good defensive catcher anyway.

Adam: Will Buddy Reed fall to #20 in the draft?
Klaw: Possible but unlikely given interest in him and paucity of good college bats. I am out on that one – I don’t think he can hit.

Michael Scarn: How many teams in the AL do you think have at least a 10% chance at making the playoffs?
Klaw: Is twelve too many? I don’t think Oakland and Baltimore do. Having a hard time giving the White Sox much of a shot in that division, even though I don’t think they’re a bad team at all – just that I don’t think (top of my head) they finish first or second. Joe Sheehan had a good piece on the Angels being fool’s gold this year. Can you really scratch anyone else, if you can even scratch all of those teams?

Kent: Do you think a player would develop the same regardless of when they sign? Would Karston Whitson still have been a bust if he signed with Padres? On the other hand would the Padres have developed Connor Jones to the same level he is currently at?
Klaw: No, I don’t think they would develop the same. Tyler Matzek would have had a different (and I think better) career had he gone to a club that didn’t rework his delivery, for one example. Kevin Gausman would be an established big league starter today had he not gone to a club that decided to dick around with his place on the rubber. (Pun not intended.) But Whitson or Dylan Bundy may have been destined for injury no matter what; Bundy was worked too hard in high school and perhaps the Orioles couldn’t have prevented what’s happened since 2012.

Tim A.: Worst FA signing of the off season?
Klaw: 1. Chris Davis. 2. Ian Kennedy. 3. Wei-Yin Chen.

Dan: Brandon Belt have 25-HR potential? Or is he going to continue to hover around 20?
Klaw: Feel like he’s going to hover around 20 but with solid avg/obp/2b. Strong enough for more power, but I’m afraid if he tries to pull the ball more he may give up too much contact.

R,: Should Marc Brakeman be developed as a artered or let him blow through the system as a reliever?
Klaw: Reliever. Assuming he doesn’t blow up like most Stanford pitchers do. But it’s OK – Coach Marquess says pitchers always come back from TJ surgery, sometimes better than before!

Astros410: Who do you think has a better 2016: Derek Holland or Trevor Bauer?
Klaw: Bauer. Never going to be the pitcher the UCLA stat line might have indicated, still plenty of elements there for an above-average major-league starter.

Derek Harvey: What’s one piece of advice you wish you got on day one of your scouting career?
Klaw: Slow it down. Easy to try to draw conclusions from the first thing you see in a player, but the more you see (and, in my case, the more you talk to others), the more refined your evaluation gets.

Mike: Have you seen Nolan Jones yet? Thoughts?
Klaw: I’ll see the local kids in April. Saw him last summer and loved him, but the schools around here are just getting started.

Scott: Can Aledmis Diaz help the Cards at SS for even a little while?
Klaw: Unlikely but not impossible.

Ian: Re: Blue Jays. Is Kevin Pillar actually a 4 WAR player, and if not, where will his value decrease?
Klaw: I have a hard time with players whose total value is that wrapped up in defensive metrics that we know lack the precision of offensive metrics. I don’t think Kevin Kiermaier is actually a top ten player in the AL either.

Josh: What are your thoughts on AJ Preller after a year-plus on the job? Safe to say that with a lot of early draft picks and ownership go-ahead to spend big internationally, this is a big summer for him?
Klaw: I think this is the year where he gets to do it his way, not ownership’s way. I’m very eager to see what he does now.

Ed: Why do most high school (and even college) players not have very good change ups. Seems like an essential pitch that someone would start working on even before trying to throw a breaking ball. I always find it odd how many pitchers need to develop it in the minors after they are drafted.
Klaw: Wild guess – because a slider will miss more bats at those levels. I don’t coach, but when friends have asked me to talk to their kids who pitch, the first thing I always do is ask if they throw a changeup, and then show them a basic grip. Little League pitchers shouldn’t throw anything but fastballs and changeups, and the latter is relatively easy to teach.

Todd: How likely do you think Brett Phillips is to get called up sometime in 2016?
Klaw: Extremely likely, but not till midyear or so.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Ever do one of those DNA tests to see what your genetic makeup is?
Klaw: No although I’d be very curious. I can’t trace my lineage very far back – three generations ago, almost everyone’s still in Europe, 75% of them in Italy and the rest in the UK/Ireland, I think. Beyond that, I have no idea.

Adam: Mike Foltynewicz — starter / long reliever / setup / closer?
Klaw: Reliever for now. Also better for helping him return from the injury (thoracic outlet syndrome?).

Brian Holland: Excited or not about return of Belly?
Klaw: Eh. Liked them during their brief peak, but I can’t say I’m running out to buy tickets to see them. How many good songs did they really have? FOur?

Scrapper: Is Maikel Franco a likely star?
Klaw: Think he’s a good player, not a likely star. He’s improved a lot over the last year, though.

Ian: RE: Pillar. My question was more in regards to whether or not he’s actually capable of a .310-.320 OBP going forward. Seems to me that that OBP will more than suffice, considering his glove.
Klaw: I think he can do that again, but I’m saying that the glove may not be as valuable as the advanced metrics indicate.

Roman: You think Drew Hutchison needs a change of scenery? Stuff still looks pretty good. Just needs to get out of the AL East?
Klaw: Needs his slider back. Otherwise he’s just a fifth starter.

Dave: Is Domingo Santana likely to make enough contact to be a solid regular?
Klaw: I don’t think so. He reminds me of a lot of players who had huge tools but either never had the OBPs or contact rates to be regulars, or didn’t get there till later in their careers. Doesn’t hurt Milwaukee to try him out, though. He’s better than Liriano.

Andy: How valuable is Profar if he shows himself to be healthy?
Klaw: I think valuable enough to be an above-average regular if he got the chance this year. His bat speed is intact. His eye is still good. He’s having no trouble making contact. And it sounds like he’s even fielding and throwing fine. Free Jurickson.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week. I’ll be at UVA Friday afternoon, then in Florida for the last week and a half or so of spring training. Next week’s chat may be on a different day to work around my travel. Thanks as always for all of your questions and for bearing with me on the time change!

Klawchat 3/10/16.

Klaw: You gave up being good when you declared a state of war. It’s Klawchat.

Paul: How many people who were upset that EA got $55M in her suit are just fine with Hulk Hogan’s $100M suit against Gawker?
Klaw: Probably a lot, but as I tweeted the other day, the $ figure isn’t the point in EA’s suit – or I guess in Bollea’s suit either. In Andrews’ case, it’s a clear message to hoteliers that this shit will not fly. She could have been raped or killed by the same stalker without any additional help from those same idiot hotel employees that put him in an adjacent room. In the Gawker case, though, I think the message at stake is freedom of the press, so even though I’m not entirely sure that what Gawker did is specifically necessary for or covered by the first amendment, I’d much rather see them win and preserve those rights than see Bollea win and potentially reduce them.

Tom: What has to happen for this D-backs offseason to be considered a success?
Klaw: I think they’d say a playoff appearance. But if they win 85 games and miss the playoffs, didn’t they get more or less what they paid for?

Alex in Austin: What happened to Erin Andrews was wrong. But I’m not sure how this is the fault of the hotel. Isn’t liability solely on the one or two employees who made bad decisions?
Klaw: Who trained those employees – or failed to train them?

Josh: Have you seen a team turn a player from first rounder to non-prospect faster than the Orioles did with DJ Stewart?
Klaw: I don’t want to give up on him entirely, but I had some doubts about him going into the draft, rating him as more of a second rounder because of the body and lack of defensive value. It doesn’t look good right now, though.

Bryce the Destroyer: What do you think of Bryce Harper’s comments about baseball being “tired?”
Klaw: If you read his entire comments, then I’m in complete agreement. I love players with energy and personality. McCutchen’s another one – I wish we had a hundred more guys like him and Harper and Fernandez.

Brian: What’s your opinion on whether or not the Tigers can win the Central? Is there any validity to the lineup being too right handed and is the rotation banking on too many what ifs? I love my team but I can only really see a maybe shot a wild card…
Klaw: I don’t think the “too right-handed” thing is a big issue – it’s easier to be too left-handed because of what it means late in games when opponents can hit you with LH relievers – but the lack of rotation depth looks like a potential problem. They have two, maybe three starters who seem really unlikely to get through a full season unscathed and other than Fulmer they don’t have adequate replacements available.

Carlos: Does Jacob Nottingham have enough bat to be a big leaguer even if he moves off catcher? If so, what kind of player might he look like? Thank you!
Klaw: I think so, but I also don’t think it’s at all a given he moves off catcher. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than barely average on defense at catcher, but with his bat that’d be enough. The power should play anywhere and he has more than enough feel to hit to get to it.

Pete: Hey Keith, does Addison Russell’s strike out percentage last year worry you or do you think he was called up before his bat was ready? Thanks!
Klaw: I thought he’d spend all of last year in the minors, so, no, I’m not worried about it.

K. C.: Does Sam Travis hit his way to a regular gig in Fenway?
Klaw: Somewhere, yes, not sure if it’ll be Fenway given the presence of Hanley and Pablo and their unmoveable contracts.

Ricky: Why aren’t more MLB players coming out against Trump?
Klaw: Given their tax brackets, most MLB players probably vote Republican, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if many supported Trump.

Michael D: No real question — just a huge thank you. Spent the last 5 days in Phoenix. Tacked on a weekend of ballgames before a few days of work. Relied on your AZ spring training eats guide and it didn’t let me down. Hit Culinary Dropout (twice), Cartel Coffee (thrice!), Hillside Spot, Four Peaks Brewery, Ground Control, and Pizzeria Bianco. Everything was awesome and I couldn’t have come up with anything like that on my own. Thanks for the tips!
Klaw: You’re welcome. I’m chatting from a Cartel right now, and they’re playing the entire Grimes album Art Angels, so I’m feeling pretty good.

kd: Do you think Cano has a bounce back year (after the hernia) or was 2015 as good as it gets for him?
Klaw: I’ll bet on the bounceback.

Joe S: I was reading the sad story of the Rangers’ prospect Cody Buckel, who can no longer find the strike zone and am wondering: Can you recall a pitcher who got “the yips” and was able to fix the problem and go on to a good career?
Klaw: Not really. Mark Wohlers had it and sort of came back but was never as good after as he was before. The problem is that no one really knows what causes the yips so no one can agree on a potential remedy.

Casey: I consider myself a feminist and have marched in support of Take Back The Night. That said, why do you vilify Kane when you don’t know any of the facts other than that there was an accusation by someone who isn’t cooperating? Maybe he is a piece of shit, maybe it was a money grab, maybe the girl isn’t even sure. This isn’t Chapman or Ben Roethlisberger. Short of the Duke case, what does a potential defendant have to do in your eyes once they are accused to not be vilified?
Klaw: I haven’t vilified Kane, although he probably deserves it, given unpublished details I’ve heard. I’ve vilified SI for making the guy the subject of a feature and cover story that whitewashes the allegations and even paints them as a positive for him. That’s a failure of ethics.

Kyle: Who do you think makes more of an impact this season Berrios or Giolito?
Klaw: Berrios will probably get twice the opportunity, so I’d say him.

Bob Pollard: What do you make of David Dahl at this point? Star/just a guy?
Klaw: Star potential, approach is more JAG right now. Tools will play somehow, but he won’t get close to his upside unless he gets more selective at the plate.

Corbin: Sean Newcomb’s first 2 outings have exposed his walk issues. I know it’s his first ST but is there any concern?
Klaw: Same concern there was last year: There isn’t a clear reason why he doesn’t throw more strikes or how to improve his control because his arm action is so easy. You can’t just say you’ll clean up his delivery or get him to work on repeating it, because it deosn’t get any cleaner.

Luke: How do your split your time between watching MLB and scouting college and/or players in the minors?
Klaw: I spend much more time watching prospects. MLB is fun but I’m not learning anything watching Harper or Trout hit.

Chris: Do you see Dodgers sending Joc Pederson down if he continues to struggle? What about Trace Thompson in CF?
Klaw: Yes, I’ve written a few times I think Thompson’s going to get a shot if Pederson doesn’t come out of the gate strongly – I think they acquired Thompson with the idea that Pederson might need to return to AAA.

Michael: I believe you have said you are against taking probiotics. My girlfriend raves about them and constantly encourages me to start taking them. However, they are expensive and I worry that it’s all in her head. Could you elaborate on your feelings?
Klaw: There’s no scientific evidence that they work or even stay in your system. If you want to improve the health of your gut, you need to eat better so that the population of flora can increase. And while I don’t take probiotics I do like fermented foods, such as yogurt (which I eat almost every day) or kimchi, and they’re definitely good for you.

Eric: Am i crazy for thinking Thor might be a legitimate Cy candidate this yr?
Klaw: I don’t think that’s crazy even if it’s a bit of a longshot. It’s not like he’s lacking anything you’d want to see in a CYA candidate.

Jesse: Mets had their wave of high end pitching prospects end last year. With Rosario, Smith ect. coming within the next 4 or 5 years do you forsee heavy pitching drafts the next 2/3 years for them. to creat a smiliar pitching prospect wave when those young hitters get to their primes?
Klaw: No, I think they’ll continue to draft best player available. Limiting yourself to just one thing – pitchers only, college players only, whatever – is a good way to have some really shitty drafts.

Danny: Have you heard of any interesting “developments” with minor league camps opening, i.e. X looks like he added velocity, or came back from the winter with a better curve?
Klaw: No, and to be honest, even if I had I’d probably say we need to see it in some games first anyway. Otherwise it’s just more “best shape of his life” nonsense.

Scott: Reports seem to be that Naquin’s glove is plenty good for him to be the Indians opening day CF. How ready is the bat?
Klaw: Probably not quite ready but close enough that I’d let him learn on the job. They’re much better off on defense with him.

Colin: What are your thoughts on the Kolten Wong extension?
Klaw: Seemed like a no-brainer for the Cards. I think he’s going to end up an average regular and if that happens it’s a screaming bargain for the club.

Jered Weaver’s Fastball: Sorry … this is taking a little longer than I thought … almost there
Klaw: Take your time. We’ve got another half hour at least.

james: Who would be your choice to play short for the Cardinals? How would project diaz bat? Do you think he can hit for avg?
Klaw: Not a huge Diaz fan – saw him in AFL, thought he was a utility guy. Don’t think there’s an average bat there, and when I saw him on defense I didn’t think he’d be an above-average defender (although bear in mind a lot of players are gassed by then and don’t look as good on defense as they might in June).

Ryan: What are the big differences between Jose Peraza and Albies? Thanks!
Klaw: Albies is definitely a shortstop; Peraza hasn’t played it in two-plus years. Albies is much stronger and will end up with more extra-base power. I think Albies’ approach is better. Peraza’s a better runner.

Thor: How do you compare the arms of Urias and De Leon? The new prospect fellow over at FanGraphs says De Leon actually has the higher ceiling with Urias having the higher floor. That was the first I’ve heard of that. Urias’ ceiling is an ace, so how good could De Leon be?
Klaw: That’s backwards – if you look at my top 100, you’ll see more on these players, but DeLeon is a low-ceiling, high-probability starter, a command/deception guy with a plus change but lacking an average breaking ball. Urias has three above-average to plus pitches, still growing, lacking DeLeon’s command right now. If they need a starter today, I’d take DeLeon, although I’d rather see both guys get more time in the minors, DeLeon to work on the breaking ball and on keeping the fastball down in the zone, Urias to work on consistency of delivery and command.

Michael-Chicago: Who do you like better Raisel Igleasis or Joe Ross?
Klaw: Ross. Big Joey Rozay fan.

Mike: Do you see Jonathan Schoop having a breakout season? I’m not sure about the walks, but I think his power really blossoms this year.
Klaw: I wish he walked more, although they did rush him to the majors. I’ve always loved the swing and power potential, and I think his defense would be excellent at second or third (occupied). I don’t know if he’ll be on my breakout column but he’s a strong consideration.

Randy: Is Bernie missing an opportunity by neglecting to mention Clinton’s arms sales as Secretary of State during recent debates?
Klaw: Do you think voters would care? I kind of don’t. It just doesn’t seem like an issue that will score any points. Secret email servers, though – that’s where it’s at.

Danny: Forgetting about his stats, do you think Judge’s changes to his approach (leg kick) has/will remedy his deficiencies in AAA?
Klaw: Dunno, seems a bit wishful thinking – I never thought it was mechanical, but more about decision-making, and recognizing locations a little earlier. He has to attack pitches inside and outside rather differently because his arms are so long. I do believe he can do it, but I’m not sure how a leg kick would change that.

Lindsay: Could you explain how you would identify a fundamental right? Are you in favor of some sort of an oligarchy to determine those things? I am pro same-sex marriage, but how do you determine that is a fundamental right and not the right to guns, the right to suicide, the right to vote, etc.?
Klaw: An oligarchy? You must be confusing me with Vladimir Putin. (I get that a lot.) We have many fundamental rights clearly delineated in the Constitution, and while I don’t necessarily agree with all of them – why do we all need the right to own a gun? – they’re there, and the process to change that document requires substantial majorities, not the decision of a chosen few. I’m good with that process.

Doc: You mentioned in a radio interview a few weeks ago that a top HS draft prospect who has had problems with marijuana. How is that likely to affect his standing on draft boards?
Klaw: If it doesn’t affect his performance on the field or behavior off of it (e.g., missing practices or something) this spring, then I’d say not at all. I personally do not care if a player smokes weed as long as he shows up for work and does what’s asked of him.

Jack: Is the best player in this draft, better than the best player in last years draft?
Klaw: Right now, I don’t think so.

Dave: If Amed Rosario actually plays “well” offensively this season as opposed to just “good for his age” how high do you think he can rise in the prospect rankings?
Klaw: I ranked him somewhere in the middle of those two scenarios because I anticipate a boost in his performance this year. He’s a potential top 20-25 guy if he blows up in AA this year. It’s explosive bat speed.

Jamie: Good for Fredi G to bench Mallex for trying another bunt? Is Mallex getting overrated because of his hot start?
Klaw: Yes, he’s getting way overrated. But there’s some value in his speed and contact.

Doc: How do you think the Phils should fill in for Altherr while he is out? Give Goeddel the AB’s?
Klaw: As good a solution as any. I don’t understand why people are acting like Altherr is a big loss. He was probably a below-average regular anyway.

Alex: If possible, can you briefly describe how we know WAR is a reliable stat? How do we trust the the formula really means Player A is worth 2 more wins than Player B?
Klaw: I think it’s directionally correct, but I don’t know if it has the precision that’s often imputed to it. If you want to answer that question, you should examine the components: the batting runs, the fielding, the baserunning, and satisfy yourself that those are at least directionally correct. I think the biggest problem with WAR is the R (replacement level, not Rakim Allah), which may not be the right baseline, and is not calculated the same way by everyone.

Pat: Have you played Dead of Winter?
Klaw: no, I have to live through that shit every year, why would i play it

Pat: If you were to write a book what would it be about?
Klaw: I am writing a book. It’s about baseball. More details to follow.

JWR: Youngest child is about to decide on a college. Would you rather have your child take on debt to go to an elite private school or would you prefer a flagship state college that might be less prestigious but much more affordable?
Klaw: I don’t think the ROI is typically there for the private schools. It does depend a bit on the student’s major and career plans – but those can change anyway. I think I got the ROI from my alma mater, but that’s because Harvard has an enormous alumni network and a good global brand. Lots of very good private schools don’t have those two things, so you’re getting a great education (as good as what I got) but not those fringe benefits. I certainly won’t push my daughter to go to a private school just because of prestige.

Wil: Anthony Alford, Derek Fischer, and Victor Robles all seem like similar prospects; who do you think actually achieve the most upside, despite the hype?
Klaw: Fisher’s not like the other two, who are both more electric and are better at translating their tools into performance. Alford’s still got untapped power; Robles could grow into power, but hasn’t developed it yet. Also, those guys can play center, while Fisher is still not that good in a corner despite 70 speed.

Isaac: Who are your top arms in the upcoming mlb draft?
Klaw: Not in any order. College: Hansen, Puk, Connor Jones, Jeffries, Tyler, Dunning, Sheffield. I’m forgetting 1-2 guys there. HS: Groome, Whitley, Pint, Velez, Anderson, Lawson, Manning, maybe Speas.

Scott: Tyler White going to get a legit shot at 1B in Hou? If no does he have any path to at bats short of a trade?
Klaw: Guy just hits everywhere he’s played. They’d be fools not to give him a shot, and they are not fools in Houston.

Scott: Is Andrew Lambo a candidate for successful reclamation project, or should I not get my hopes up?
Klaw: I’m not buying that one at all. He was never that good a prospect even when he was a prospect.

Robert: Do you like Michael Fulmer?
Klaw: Well I’ve never met the kid, but he seems like a pretty good pitcher.

Scott: I realize he was JUST drafted, but what are your early thoughts on Bickford’s potential? If I remember, you were a little underwhelmed by him? Didn’t mean to put words in your mouth if that wasn’t your opinion!
Klaw: Majority of scouts I talked to said “reliever,” and that’s even before you get into the medical questions – he has some kind of shoulder issue, and had a back problem before the draft. Big fastball, very inconsistent slider that would be plus one week and barely average the next, low slot, no real changeup. Healthy for two years since he didn’t sign with Toronto, though, and holds his stuff deep into games. I could see the argument that he’s got #2 starter upside, but I see more red flags too.

RSF: I saw a prospect analyst mention that Nick Plummer’s high-ish strikeout rate last year was partially due to the fact that he had a better since of the zone than most of the umps in the Gulf Coast League (i.e. he kept striking out looking at balls). Have you heard of anything like that before? And is that actually the case with Plummer?
Klaw: I’ve heard that before and it’s mostly BS. Plenty of prospects have good plate discipline. They don’t all struggle like he did. That doesn’t mean he’s a bust or anything, but I think the jump from a Michigan HS prep conference to the GCL was a huge one.

Jason: I personally believe that the discrepancies between the various WAR formula are a negative to most followers because the numbers can sometimes differ a substantial amount. Which WAR formula do you trust more?
Klaw: I look at both. If they disagree substantially, I’ll spend time on the components to understand why. If they’re close, I feel pretty confident using those values or their average as a good estimate of the player’s value. Again, I wouldn’t tell anyone to treat them as precise to the tenths digit.

Lindsay: But a right to SSM is clearly not in the Constitution. So leave it to the states. It’s as if you love the result so much that you ignore the process. You can be pro-SSM and take Scalia’s side in that case.
Klaw: Actually, the right to same sex marriage is in the 14th amendment, and you can’t leave it to the states because marriage is a part of so many federal laws, including the tax code and social security. Scalia’s argument was a copout to try to support his bigoted views.

Casey: What did you want SI to say? When has enough time passed that it doesn’t have to be mentioned?
Klaw: I wanted them to pick a player who wasn’t just accused of rape a few months ago.

Steve: Coppy had an interesting answer in a recent twitter Q&A about seeking a college bat with their 1st round pick. How is the crop of college bats this class?
Klaw: Terrible. I know that’s what they want, but if Corey Ray is gone – and in a lot of drafts he wouldn’t be a clear top 3 pick – then I don’t see a college bat worth that spot.

Drew: I saw dansby play twice at Buena vista last week. Am I crazy to compare him to jeter ? His hit tool was amazingly impressive. Not much to dislike about his game
Klaw: I’ve heard him compared to Jeter before. Don’t think Jeter swung and missed that much, but Swanson’s a better glove. I think dansby just has that look, though … if you’re not scouting, just watching, he has that star quality, so your eyes are always on him.

Matt: To chime in on JWR’s question, as someone who turned down a full scholarship from a state school to attend an expensive (non-Harvard) private university, I would agree that the ROI was not really there. I got a great education, sure, but I ultimately had to go into a lot of debt when I decided to go to grad school, and I’m not sure that the school I attended gave me much of a leg up in the job market or in getting into grad school over what the state school would’ve given me.
Klaw: Yep. This is the great college scam – grad schools too, in some cases – where they have everyone convinced that the ROI is automatically there, when it’s not for most schools.

Michael: Guys like Weaver and Sabathia presumably wouldn’t make their teams if they were 24 and making $500k. Is it fair to ask then, why don’t those teams just realize the sunk cost and release them?
Klaw: In Weaver’s case they might have to do that – how can you let him start if Carlos Perez could just catch Weaver’s fastball with his teeth?

Adam: Would you start Swanson in AAA and Albies in AA?
Klaw: No. Swanson in AA, Albies in high-A. SEC to AAA is a huge jump.

Matt: Ever seen Tetsuto Yamada or Yuki Yangita play (current NPB MVPs)? think either or both have the tools to be impact players in MLB if the ever came over?
Klaw: Don’t think I have, or at least not in too long to matter.

Ed: Hi Keith, Saw a Gooden comp for Cease’s curveball. Fair?
Klaw: No, not fair.

Andy: Patrick Kane’s Wikipedia page no longer mentions the Sexual Assault Investigation.
Klaw: Wikipedia is never wrong, you know.

Lindsay: Where in the 14th Amendment? Does equal protection apply to felons who want to vote? To people who want to marry their daughter?
Klaw: Ah yes, the incest argument, a favorite of SSM opponents (which I know you said you’re not). The government has a clear, compelling interest to prevent procreation by people that closely related due to the genetic consequences. This supersedes the 14A rights you’re claiming. As for felons voting … has this been tested? Perhaps such bans aren’t constitutional. I don’t know.

Jamie: So if Mike Trout gets accused of sexual assault with no charges and then has the triple crown locked up in September we should ignore him? I’m sure you’d do that.
Klaw: If the claim is like the one against Kane, then yes, we should cover him less, or, if we must cover him at all, in a way that doesn’t shame the victim or cast the allegations as a positive for the player. Your straw men are really tiring.

Jason: What is Eduardo Rodriguez ceiling?
Klaw: Number one starter.

Scrapper: Better pitcher over the next 3 years: Stroman or Gausman?
Klaw: Stroman.

John: Do you consider 4 seam/2 seam/Curve a 2 or 3 pitch mix? I’ve seen comments both ways on Tyler Duffy with one side arguing its not enough to succeed long term as a starter.
Klaw: I’d call that a two-pitch mix.

Jason: Do you tweet out when you are having a chat? I feel like every week you don’t I end up checking your blog like ten times
Klaw: Yes. This week I didn’t have time to set up the chat room in advance, though, because I was on the move. Family is out here in AZ with me.

Corey: Deven Marrero a good fit for STL ? Would the Sox move him and what would be a proper return if so ?
Klaw: Now that’s a move I’d like for them. One good pitching prospect in return.

Jeff: You like Corey Ray more than Buddy Reed?
Klaw: Oh God yes, not even close. I don’t think Reed will hit. Bad swing from both sides. Just looks real good in the uniform.

Jason: Where does Eddy Julio Martinez start out at?
Klaw: I’m guessing low-A, but I haven’t even asked any clubs stuff like this lately because I know they won’t make those decisions till the last week or so of March.

Rob: Putting aside pitchers, the “injury prone” label for certain batters seems a little lazy. There’s always going to be a sample size issue. Where are we at on this? Health is a skill? Or more complicated?
Klaw: Health is a “skill” in the sense that some players clearly have it more than others. I guess you can learn or improve a skill, whereas health may just be inborn.

Tom: Is an easy prediction for this year that Trout will be the best player in the AL again and finish second in the MVP voting because the Angels miss the playoffs and he doesn’t lead the league in RBI?
Klaw: Yep, Vegas won’t even take your action on that one.

Jason: Chances that Corey Seager’s career surpasses his brother Kyle?
Klaw: Better than even. I’ve always said Corey was the better brother. Kyle has peaked higher than I expected, but I’d be very surprised if Corey didn’t have several 6+ win seasons.

Scrapper: Will Kevin Maitan immediately be a top 10 prospect when he signs with a team?
Klaw: No, not at all. Getting way too far ahead of yourself on a player who’ll be just 16 when that happens.

Adam: Thoughts on Dakota Hudson at Miss State?
Klaw: I’ll refer you to Longenhagen’s last draft blog post on that one.

Craig: The Brewers’s competition for CF features more players than the cast of Too Many Cooks. Can Keon Broxton break through and be a good stopgap until Brett Phillips is ready?
Klaw: Michael Reed is better.

Lindsay: Thanks for taking my questions and answering them politely! We can agree to disagree, but I appreciate it.
Klaw: You’re welcome. I should probably qualify every answer with “i’m not a lawyer” but if you’re here you probably knew that. I’m just a guy with lots of opinions.

Mike: How good is Cal Quantril and Is there any chance he could fall to the Phillies at 2.1 this June ?
Klaw: If he does, it would probably be a Daz Cameron type deal where they’ve worked it out for him to fall. It’s not legal but I’m fine with it – the system basically forces teams to do it, and it means elite players get paid.

Sean: Is Jose Quintana the most underrated pitcher in majors?
Klaw: I don’t know how you’d measure that but yeah, he’s very underrated.

J: Hey Harvard nerd, Rich Gossage says you don’t know shitt
Klaw: Best part is how many “nerds” pushed to get his Luddite ass into the Hall of Fame.

Will in Vero: Tanner Roark — ready to be a solid starter again?
Klaw: I say yes.

John: With you’re earlier answer on pitch mix, you would agree with Tyler Duffy not succeeding long term as a starter? I assume with his curve his floor is above average bullpen arm?
Klaw: What he did in 2015 was way above any expectations I had for him, and also well above what he did in the minors, so yes, I’m expecting regression … or for him to make my annual “guys I was wrong about” list in September.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – I need to get lunch and head to a ballpark! I’ll definitely chat again next week between my spring trips.

Klawchat 3/4/16.

Klaw: If they’re out of hand, I’m a give ’em handles. Klawchat.

Tim: What’s your opinion of Andy Green?
Klaw: I really know nothing of him as a tactical manager, but I like that the Padres actually considered managerial experience in the minors as if it has value (it absolutely does, in my opinion), and I have heard great things about his work with young players. I’m cautiously optimistic.

Stevie: Does Tom Murphy start at C for Col in ’16?
Klaw: If healthy? Might be a bit of a leap now, but possible later in the season.

Brian: The Braves seem to have a decent number of minor leaguers that should be able to hit, but there aren’t many with big power projection. Do you view this as a problem?
Klaw: I don’t know that I think that’s true – Davidson certainly projects for power – and power is a relatively scarce commodity. But I think this qualifies as looking for something to worry about: they have lots of pitching and players up the middle, so if they do have to trade for a power bat at a corner at some point they should have the pieces to do so.

Daniel: Back on the old ESPN chat days, you characterized and had concerns about Manaea being “all deception” in regards to his stuff and potential output. Have things changed given your current ranking of him?
Klaw: I don’t think that’s an accurate summary of my views on him at any point. It’s not like he was throwing 85 and getting guys out. He wasn’t throwing 96 like he did on the Cape, but I’ve seen him multiple times as a pro and he’s generally been at least 88-93, more often 90-94, with an above-average slider. Deception is why he puts up huge K rates despite stuff that’s more grade 55-60 than grade 65-70.

chris: what games did you go to yesterday
Klaw: I saw Nolan Martinez, Chris Murphy, and Nick Lodolo. I’m going to see Mickey Moniak today and probably Reggie Lawson tomorrow. The weather is screwing up my trip – I would have had the chance to see Lawson and Kevin Gowdy, but their games are now at the same time.

Jacob: Do you think the Braves should be encouraged by the standout performances (and surprising power)of Mallex Smith and Ozhaino Albies and does it bode well for their seasons?
Klaw: No, I think spring training stats are totally meaningless and trying to draw any conclusions from three days of games would only qualify you to participate in last night’s GOP debate.

John Uskglass: How confident are you in J. Profar still being an above average player?
Klaw: One hundred percent. If he’s healthy, he’ll be above average.

Andrew: What are your thoughts on Chris Lee’s progression since coming over to the O’s system from Houston? Could Baltimore actually be successfully developing talent for once?
Klaw: You’ll have to be more specific; I saw Lee’s last start of 2015 and saw more or less what he’s been before.

Matt: Is Ahmed Rosario more than just a glove?
Klaw: Yes. Someone asked Jonathan Mayo that same question on Twitter and I was dumbfounded. That’s a bad fake-scouting report going around if people think that’s what he is.

Philip: Padres supposedly have secret deals with Jorge Ona and Adrian Morejon I know you answered a question few weeks ago on Morejon and seem high on him. What about Ona?
Klaw: I’ve heard better on Morejon, but still good things on Ona. Still haven’t seen either. Once they’re locked up in deals, they turn into phantasms.

BD: Mike Shawaryn a worthy late first rounder?
Klaw: Will see him in April but area guys were telling me more like second round coming into the spring.

Mike P.: Who will be more known at the end of the season in Milwaukee: Hank or Arcia?
Klaw: I have no idea how this Hank story became a thing. Maybe Michigan’s Gov. Snyder should concoct a fake-dog story because it certainly seemed to generate more reader interest than poisoning kids in Flint has.

G: Do you listen to much Hip Hop? Any opinion on Kanye’s “The Life of Pablo” or Kendrick’s new release?
Klaw: Oh, I like hip hop, but please don’t lump Kanye into that genre. I thought untitled unmastered was much more interesting and streamlined than TPAB, and while he could have used some editing (track 7 anyone?), there are some real highlights that brought me back to the brief peak of jazz-rap, particularly track 8 and track 3.

Cole: Where does Alex Bregman fit with the Astros? Wouldn’t think he is the guy defensively to make Correa move to third and Jose Altuve i still at second. Is his arm strong enough for third base? Is a move to the outfield inevitable?
Klaw: It’s a 50 arm if you like it, 45 if you don’t. Second base is his ideal position. I wonder if the Astros figured he was the best player available at 2 in their minds, so if there isn’t an opportunity (with Altuve signed through 2019 including options, there probably isn’t one), Bregman would be the centerpiece in any trade for a big leaguer in July.

Andrew: You’ve mentioned the Rockies shortened Gray’s delivery. I seem to remember something similar being said about their handling of Matzek coming up. Is this a common practice in their development process and potentially problematic a la the Orioles?
Klaw: They really altered Matzek’s delivery, but aside from those two guys i’m not sure what other examples we have there. Often it’s these kids going to coaches in their offseasons, like Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez apparently did, rather than getting it from coaches.

Zach: Promise it’s not driven by a hot spring start. How good is Mazara’s hit tool?
Klaw: Now, probably a 40 or 45. Future, jeez, if you wanted to push me to say 60 I wouldn’t argue too hard. He’s always had an approach well beyond his age.

Jonny B: I always get overexcited about spring training performances, despite understanding that it is foolish to do so. However, I am curious if you think there is anything about spring training that might be predictive or informative (particularly relating to prospects)?
Klaw: If a kid shows up looking different physically or mechanically, that might mean something significant. I heard secondhand that David Rollins was throwing harder with a better slider than before – now that’s a guy I would want to watch. But you can take the spring training stats sheet into the bathroom with you in case the stall is out of toilet paper.

Craig: You mentioned that you find minor league experience very useful for evaluating possible MLB managers? Because a minor league manager’s job is primarily about developing talent (a team would be thrilled with a manager who routinely finished last in his league, but consistently developed players), what traits/experiences from the minors are useful? I’m genuinely curious.
Klaw: I disagree that that’s all there is to a minor league manager’s job. No team would be thrilled with a manager who routinely finished last, because the affiliate (if it’s not owned by the MLB team) would be seriously pissed off and would seek a new affiliation – and no MLB team wants to end up in High Desert. The actual experience of running a club, handling tactical situations in-game, and balancing developmental needs with trying to win is valuable and can’t be replicated through any means other than experience.

Thomas I. Shollar: Yo Bro, trying to up my home brew game….not a home espresso drinker more of a pour over homie…Baratza Encore get it done for a grinder or is that still JV?
Klaw: I think it would. I own their Virtuoso but it’s because I needed a consistent, finer grind for espresso.

Jay: Your comment on Mac Wiliamson’s bat speed being a tad slow…is that based on what you saw pre or post surgery?
Klaw: Post. Saw him in AFL.

Bartolo4ever: I read your review of Spotlight. Just out of curiosity, which was the scene that “rang a little false” for you?
Klaw: Ruffalo’s character blowing up at Keaton. Not sure if it actually happened or not, but it seemed very made-for-commercial.

Andrew: Re: Chris Lee–> when in Houston never made it past A ball, fb sat at 89 and command shaky. Since coming to baltimore got to AA, fb 93-96, stronger and seems to have better command this spring
Klaw: He’s not 93-96 as a starter. Might do that in relief – I heard he did in instructs in short stints – but that’s not really a change when you take a guy from starting to relief and see his velocity increase.

Greg T.: Is Daulton Jefferies a first rounder?
Klaw: Yes. Although I’m not totally sure he’s there on merit.

Ed: If you’re the cubs, do you approach this draft differently? Like, would you utilize your available scouting resources to spend more time scouting the lower ranked or diamond in the rough types? Or do you approach it same as always?
Klaw: Well they have so little money to spend relative to other teams that I’d probably avoid many of the HS kids who are expected to go first round and wouldn’t be signable for less than first-round money. Can still find value later in the draft; perhaps there’s a way to scout those guys more efficiently when you’re not spending resources scouting Corey Ray or Jason Groome.

Dusty: Do you see any scenario where Desmond plays SS for the Rangers?
Klaw: If Andrus gets hurt or hits even worse than he did in 2015, don’t they have to try it?

Jake: Any industry rumors around who the Phillies will take at number 1?
Klaw: No. And if there were, they’d be bogus. It’s three months from the draft and there’s no Bryce Harper type to make this an easy question.

Kyle: I always admire your stances on twitter and speaking up on things like Baylor and Tennessee. In light of that, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the Erin Andrews news and how you feel to be working for the same company that would make her live through that on TV
Klaw: I was not happy to see that at all, and I won’t say a word to defend ESPN’s actions, but I also have no idea who those executives might have been or if they’re still with the company. I can only hope that if they are still around that they are being made to answer for their actions. Erin deserved so much better.

Andrew: Pick one: Pandemic or Catan
Klaw: Pandemic.

Chris P: Are you looking to make any spring games, or is it all HS/college at this point?
Klaw: I have gone to spring training every year since joining ESPN. This year is no different.

Mike: If once of the Cardinals current starting five went down tomorrow, would you put Reyes on the 40 Man?
Klaw: I would have done it anyway just to make it clear that I think suspensions for weed are stupid. I have real optimism that the union is going to try to get that eliminated in the next CBA. I’m in California now and I could probably be legally high right now (I’m not, just to make that clear). There’s no justification for MLB being this far behind the times.

Anonymous: Do you think the Pirates treatment of Gerrit Cole is an example of an exploited inefficiency on PIT’s part? Figure a pitcher isn’t likely to be healthy or affordable by the time he is a FA, the player will take advantage of arbitration, why give a raise now?
Klaw: I wouldn’t have tried or threatened to cut him, but as I said on the BBTN podcast, there is no benefit to paying these guys more before they’re arb-eligible. I just wouldn’t go out of my way to antagonize them.

wrburgess: Who would you bet on being the 2016 version of Conforto, such as a 2015 draft pick that, given the chance, makes a late-season impact in the majors?
Klaw: I think Benintendi could do that. Hell, Bregman could do it if Altuve or Correa had some serious injury.

Nik: Which team will make the playoffs first, the Phillies or the Braves?
Klaw: Hm. I think Atlanta is more motivated to go spend some money to improve the team quickly in 2017-18, but the Phillies’ prospects are a bit closer to helping the big-league club.

Michael: Do you call out your colleagues when they refer to RBIs, OPS, “clutch,” or other stats/concepts you disagree with, like you do with people on Twitter? Is that uncomfortable?
Klaw: I have done so on Twitter and on air. I’ve called out colleagues for supporting anti-science and pseudoscience too. So this seems like a very silly question.

Amit: Check out any eats while you were in the bay?
Klaw: Cotogna, del Popolo, flour + water, Four Barrel, Sightglass.

Clay: Have you ever tried curing your own meat? Would love to try but I worry about getting it wrong and making people sick.
Klaw: I’ve cured and smoked bacon. I haven’t done anything to be eaten uncooked like prosciutto.

Ryan: Out of all of the Braves pitching prospects who’s most likely to reach/come close to expectations?
Klaw: Aaron Blair, because he’s just about there already.

Scott: With Archie Bradley and Jon Gray both reportedly showing increased velocity on their first spring turns, seems like both of their local media are hoping for the best and forgetting it was two inning stints after a long stretch off. How much of their problems the last two years can be tied directly to the lost ticks on their fastball?
Klaw: A lot. Although Bradley also had issues with his shoulder, and both guys have struggled to develop a good third pitch.

Ciscoskid: Any prospects that are top 2 rounds worthy out of Northern CA?
Klaw: Jefferies and Matt Manning are the two definites, although Manning is playing hoops and won’t make his first start until April 11th.

Colin: what disgusted you most about the GOP debate last night?
Klaw: I actually didn’t watch it; I’ve only read recaps and reactions, which of course are going to highlight the most ridiculous moments.

William: re: Spotlight….that Ruffalo weird accent/cadence he was going for didn’t annoy the living hell out of you?
Klaw: No – actually, I thought it enhanced the performance because it made him fall into character more. Plus I don’t know what Rezendes actually sounds like; I read an interview with Sascha Pfeifer which one of you sent to me where she said the actors all worked to adopt the real reporters’ accents and gestures.

Kevin: Thoughts on fantasy baseball (not daily). Good for the game or a hindrance?
Klaw: Good for the game. Daily fantasy, not so much.

Kevin: Best rapper ever?
Klaw: Rakim. I’ll entertain an argument for 2Pac, but Rakim is known by a single letter for a reason.

Guy Bissonnette: H ramirez end the season as the Sox 1B?
Klaw: Yes. I think he’s going to hit better than expected. He was OK before he slammed into the wall last year.

Michael: You made it seem like it was completely wrong to be in the minority on the gay marriage cases last week on Twitter. While you may not agree with originalism, it’s a legitimate way to interpret the Constitution. The ratifiers of the 14th Amendment never thought they were giving people the right to marry a person of the same sex. Leave it to the legislature.
Klaw: There are two problems with this. The ratifiers of the 14th amendment promised due process under the law to all, with no exceptions or conditions. Indeed, the authors or ratifiers of the Constitution or any amendment could not have imagined the world in which we live today, and saying that if they didn’t anticipate modern technology, biology, knowledge of genetics (of which they had none), and so on that the documents don’t apply renders them useless. As for Scalia’s argument that marriage equality should have been left to state legislatures, that’s an outright failure because so many federal laws and policies – including the favorable tax treatment of married couples and survivors’ benefits in social security – rely on marital status that it is undeniably a federal issues. Scalia was smart enough to know this, but let his own opposition to gay marriage inform his opinion instead.

Dan: Periscopes coming back soon?
Klaw: Tough to do those when I’m on a plane or in a car all the time.

Chris: Agree with the 30 games for Aroldis? I thought it was light, to be honest.
Klaw: I thought it was reasonable for a negotiated settlement (no appeal) in a case where the victim recanted, so whatever additional evidence MLB may have gathered that we don’t have, their case against Chapman was likely weaker than they’d wanted.

Steve: What kind of line would you expect from Park in Minnesota this year?
Klaw: .250ish with 75 walks and 20-25 homers? I don’t know him that well as a player, just some video.

Michael: I meant, do you do it in person? Doing it behind the comfort of a computer screen is a lot easier.
Klaw: Really? I would never say anything online or in a text that I wouldn’t repeat in person. You seem ignorant of what my job actually entails. When I say the Angels have the worst farm system I’ve ever seen, I still talk to many people in their organization and must be willing to stand up and answer for what I’ve said.

Fitzy: Does the White Sox initial aggressive assignment of Courtney Hawkins explain why he’s never really developed?
Klaw: It’s a strong hypothesis, and in my opinion, a good one that’s probably incomplete. He was fairly crude to begin with and there was always a chance he’d never hit.

Adam Trask: The underrated 9th amendment: The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
Klaw: No, we’re only picking and choosing amendments that fit our preconceived notions here. Please don’t confuse us.

Ronald: Do you have a feeling that, behind the scenes, Aroldis and his reps said, “we’ll settle with you if you agree to leave his free agency alone?”
Klaw: Absolutely. Not a bad strategy for them. I actually have no real problem with leaving his free agency alone while keeping him off the field for a month. MLB’s problem is not about these guys getting paid, but having them on the field at all. I would hope every opposing announcer would bring it up whenever Chapman’s in the game.

Kevin: If you have to eat at a chain which one is it?
Klaw: Shake Shack is excellent for a chain. Chipotle and Panera are solid choices when I’m in chain-world. I used to hate Panera and there are still things there I won’t touch, but often when I’m traveling I don’t want really heavy foods.

Dan: I’m pretty sure the ratifiers of the 2nd Amendment never thought they were giving people the right to carry semi-automatic weapons to kill…
Klaw: Key & Peele did a great sketch on this – maybe the framers would have loved semi-automatic weapons.

AJ: I know Andrew Suarez didnt make your top ten list for the Giants. What are your thoughts on him?
Klaw: Health history is a real concern. Could be a 4th starter if healthy but has had so many problems already I can’t forecast durability.

Nelson: Braves better off with Swanson or Simmons at shortstop?
Klaw: Simmons’ defense is irreplaceable but Swanson will provide far more offense than Simmons ever could. Probably a slight downgrade because Simmons’ glove was so good, but I still think Swanson makes a bunch of All-Star teams.

Owen (London): Did everyone else get the Robert Louis Stevenson/lighthouse reference a few weeks ago ? Fuckin’ A, bubba. This is why we love this game.
Klaw: Only a couple of people did, but that’s OK. My rule of thumb is that if one person gets one of my ridiculous references, I’m happy. Otherwise I’d lose my damn mind.

Michael: Originalists don’t agree with substantive due process. It’s completely made up to someone like Scalia. Moreover, the federal government could easily change those benefits if they wanted to. Vote people in who do if you don’t like it. I happen to be in favor of gay marriage; I just wanted it done the right way, not by nine unelected judges.
Klaw: I find the idea of leaving questions of fundamental rights up to elected officials, and thus the people who elected them, rather scary, or haven’t you noticed that the leading candidate for the GOP nomination wants to restrict the rights of Muslims?

Theo: Obviously A Espinoza looks great now. Being as small as he is and and young as he is, what are the percentages that 1) he actually makes it to the big leagues and 2) he develops reasonably well (#2/3)? Is he a lottery ticket at this point, or are the chances better?
Klaw: I was trying to think of the last guy like him – and there have been very few – who didn’t turn into anything at all. Brien Taylor? Felix did. Pedro did. Who else has there been?

BD: Any tricks to get a young child (2 in my case) to eat vegtables?
Klaw: I’m not the best one to talk, as my daughter is a great eater but still doesn’t love vegetables, but I have found that roasting them till caramelized helps bring out the sugars naturally present in the vegetables. I would often get my daughter to eat broccoli cooked like that and tossed with grated Parmiggiano-Reggiano or Pecorino Romano.

Mike: The Brewers outfield is stocked full of intriguing prospects, big fan of Michael Reed, how does he fit in there?
Klaw: I think he should be their everyday CF by year-end.

Michael D: Unlike the Rangers’ strategy to sign Desmond rather than going with an in-house platoon/rookie option, should Cleveland stick Naquin in CF as opposed to potentially overpaying for a guy like Austin Jackson? Not like Abraham Almonte was Kenny Lofton …
Klaw: I would. Even if Naquin hits .230/.290/.350 he’ll probably still help the club with his defense. And while they need a bat or three, Jackson probably isn’t the solution.

addoeh: What one regional or national chain restaurant, that isn’t close to your house, do you wish was near by?
Klaw: I’m glad Shake Shack isn’t nearby or I’d eat there too often. We do miss Grimaldi’s from Arizona as it was a favorite of my daughter’s and I happened to like their salads as well as their pizzas.

Kevin: Next to you is buster the hardest working guy in the business?
Klaw: True fact: Buster actually hasn’t slept in six years.

Marshall: How much time do teams spend evaluating an average draft pick? How much time in the farm system before the team has enough new information to make the draft position meaningless (i.e., not a factor in promotion decisions)?
Klaw: Come on, you saw Trouble with the Curve. Teams don’t see the player until a week before the draft, and then they only have the area guy see him even if he might be the first or second overall pick.

Drew: What was your impression of Connor Jones last week? And did you eat at Mas again or try somewhere new?
Klaw: I didn’t make the trip – I’m shooting for March 18th to try again.

Michael: Discrimination exists and is legal in this country. Other than rights specifically mentioned in the Constitution, legislatures decide the rest. People who love weed get incredibly discriminated in this country. Does due process and equal protection apply to them?
Klaw: Yeah, that’s not discrimination.

Lyle: I like popular music, restaurants, etc…but I want to seem super unique to people when I describe my tastes. What is wrong with me?
Klaw: Why? You like what you like. You certainly shouldn’t try to be something you’re just not.

Kevin: ever seen breaking bad and if so thoughts?
Klaw: I watched S1 and two eps of S2 and bailed. Just did not grab me.

Ed: Do you see Giolito starting the season in DC?
Klaw: No, and I’m guessing we don’t see him till late in the season given their other SP options.

Corey: Your prediction about whether or not JBJ, Castillo and Sandoval produce where the Sox expect/need them to ?
Klaw: I’ll say JBJ does, Castillo doesn’t, and Sandoval is OK but short of expectations.

Johnny: Do you think Rio Ruiz can take Atlanta’s 3rd base job by 2017? Or do you see him only being a bench guy?
Klaw: Bench guy.

Eric: Does it bother you when someone (who is hiding behind a computer screen) accuses you of hiding behind a computer screen when you criticize someone?
Klaw: You kind of just described Twitter.

Corey: Think Joe Kelly sticks as the 5th starter or ends up in ‘pen? and is Owens or Johnson (or Elias) the better replacement ?
Klaw: I think Kelly has to be in the bullpen but they seem committed to trying him as a starter again.

Jeff Chisholm: What anti science faction do you hate more: the “global warming is a myth” contingent or the “vaccines are dangerous” group?
Klaw: Do I have to choose? If you deny one part of science you might as well be denying all of it. We don’t get to pick what facts to believe. Well, we do, but if we don’t believe them all then we might as well go extinct.

Kevin: I keep hearing that the Trea Turner/Joe Ross for Wil Myers trade is a disaster for the Padres. Do you think there is a good chance Wil Myers breaks out and makes it a great deal for the Padres?
Klaw: I still have hope for Myers, but that trade will never look good for them because of how much they gave up.

John: berrios has to start in the Twins rotation right? Who else do they have….. How did they win that many game last year with that rotation
Klaw: I think he’s ready.

Klaw: I need to get rolling and figure out my plan for today as the game I was supposed to see (Moniak) was cancelled. Thanks as always for all of the questions – I’ll chat again at some point next week!

Klawchat 2/25/16.

My ranking of the top 25 prospects by 2016 impact is now up for Insiders.

Klaw: I take this more serious than just a poem. Klawchat.

Chris in London: Some articles and John Henry have revived the analytics vs scouting debate? Why is there even a debate? Surely an organisation should exploit both. They’re not mutually exclusive.
Klaw: Analytics are an easy scapegoat. Remember Frank McCourt blaming them when he fired Depodesta and hired Colletti? It’s a combination of Trumpian pandering and the misconception that “analytics” are not actually produced by people the way scouting reports are.

Matt: Some warm weather in Louisville encouraged me to catch the Cardinals playing this weekend. Corey Ray was really impressive offensively and defensively (Feb. competition notwithstanding). One of my friends tried to comp him to Ken Griffey Jr. (we aren’t friends anymore), but I thought Jacoby Ellsbury is more realistic projection of his ceiling. Or am I way off as well?
Klaw: Less speed/defense than Ellsbury, more power. Bear in mind that Louisville outscored their opponentss 53-7 in those four games. I don’t think playing Pencil State and Little Sisters of the Poor counts the way some of their in-conference opponents will.

Anonymous: What do you think of Rangers’ David Perez? Beyondtheboxscore called him one of the best underrated prospects in the game. Would you agree?
Klaw: That’s silly, he’s been on the radar for at least four years and has no history of staying healthy. Great arm, of course, and if he ended up throwing 40 good innings for Texas’ bullpen this year I wouldn’t be surprised.

Matt: Since your last chat (as I’m sure you saw), Umberto Eco passed away. Did you ever read any of his works? The Name of the Rose remains the best and most challenging book I’ve ever read. An incredible blend of murder mystery fiction with medieval history, semiotics, philosophy, and religious studies all mixed in.
Klaw: Loved Name of the Rose for all the reasons you mentioned. Foucault’s Pendulum was a huge disappointment, primarily because he could not finish the plot.

Bob: Do you think Braxton Davidson has the hit tool to make enough contact to be a quality corner bat in the majors?
Klaw: Yes. He’s also got more power than stat-line scouting might lead you to believe.

Ben: I take it you don’t like Robert Stephenson’s chances of being a fulltime SP for Cincy this year?
Klaw: Is there a spot in their rotation for him? I don’t see one.

Ciscoskid: I found your comment about Gray not having little deception interesting. Is deception a skill, or attribute that you would focus on finding pitchers who had it for the Rockies rotation. So despite the stuff not being great a big deceptive fast ball might be highly effective?
Klaw: Deception comes from the delivery. If the hitter can’t see the ball till fairly late in the delivery, the pitcher gets a substantial advantage. Gray has as little deception as any pitching prospect I saw all last year, and a hard, straight fastball without deception is … well, that’s been one of Mark Appel’s problems, too.

Casey: Do you think Luke Weaver has the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter?
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. FB-CH but not even a fringe-average breaking ball. Smaller guy too.

Brandon: How do you see the major league playing time for Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson playing out this year? Does Profar get first crack in the outfield?
Klaw: I don’t know, but I hope they do something like that, playing Profar, rather than acquiring a veteran to play LF. They have enough internal options to cover them until Hamilton is healthy (j/k) or one of those kids is ready to come up and perform.

Nick: Thoughts on Boras’ elite draft idea?
Klaw: He described something very much like this to me maybe four or five years ago, and I think he has the concept right. He’s absolutely correct that in any draft class there are only a few players whose market value would blow away these slot bonuses, and for most other kids, the draft shaves a little off their potential earnings but not a ton. His idea is focused on getting the Strasburg/Harper talents paid, and I support that without reservation, even though I think implementing his idea would be tricky because it creates opportunities for teams to manipulate the pool.

Jack: Will you travel to see Jason groome this year?
Klaw: He’s like 80 miles from my house, so, yes.

Alex: Does the fact that Anthony Alford has limited pro experience to date mean he could advance up prospect lists with a strong performance this year? With so few pro games he could be undervalued due to lack of exposure… What do you see his ceiling being?
Klaw: I do not believe he’s undervalued at all, nor is there a “lack of exposure.” He was a first-round talent in HS, and just played a full year in two full-season leagues. We got him. But he could shoot up into my top 10-15 this year because he’ll go to AA and now has a full season of at bats under his belt, as opposed to last year when he came in somewhat cold, with only about 150 pro AB before 2015.

Dave M: As a Cubs fan I loved your ranking of G. Torres. Are you at all concerned with his relatively high(21%) SO rate at low A?
Klaw: Well, no, or I wouldn’t have ranked him there. Also, that’s not that high a K% and he was exceptionally young for low-A.

Michael: Do you still think Foltynewicz can be an effective starter or with all the arms they’ve acquired is he just destined now for the pen??
Klaw: After the injury he might need to go to the bullpen for the interim anyway. I’d rather see him in the 8th or 9th and Blair in his rotation spot.

Jason (DC): You once were high on Dalton Pompey as a prospect. Still believe a breakout could come if given the opportunity?
Klaw: Yep, still a fan, haven’t really changed my view of him.

Dan: Understanding right now it seems unlikely. Should the Angels trade Trout? Is there any team in the league that has enough to trade for him?
Klaw: No, and just for the record (I know you’re not saying this), I never said the Angels should trade Trout. I said they will have to look at this if they don’t improve the system dramatically in the next 2-3 years or win a title in the meantime. But as long as he’s here, in his prime, and affordable, the mandate should be to build as good a team around him as possible.

PhillyJake: In Scottsdale many years ago I ate at Grimaldi’s, a brick over pizza place. When I lived in Brooklyn Heights, I used to go to his place under the Brooklyn Bridge. It was great. Wondering if the place in Scotssdale is still there and if it’s still any good?
Klaw: It’s a chain of about 20 places now, mostly in the southwest, although there’s no longer any formal connection with the locations in Brooklyn. I have tried both and actually prefer the pizza at the AZ places.

Andy: Does it worry you that someone putting together Time’s literature list may not know literature that well? I agree, Evelyn Waugh has a female sounding name, but no one looking at the list noticed that maybe he shouldn’t be on a list of top female authors.
Klaw: On the bright side, people are talking about Evelyn Waugh, and his work definitely deserves to be read. Scoop is just timeless.

Bret: With Jose Bautista’s negotiating stance making it seem highly likely he’ll be a free agent after this season, would you say that the Blue Jays window to contend will end after this season?
Klaw: I tried to say something like this but in less dramatic terms on TSN 1050 yesterday. If they get to July 15th and are not in the hunt, they should trade Bautista and begin a retooling, although they still have enough of a core that they might be able to turn it over into a contending team in 2017 if they trade shrewdly.

Scott of Lincolnshire: What in the eff are the Cubs going to do with their OF? Baez and/or Soler trade coming?
Klaw: I don’t understand the responses from fans about Baez. He hadn’t earned a thing. If this sends him back to AAA, so be it. A good September against largely non-contending teams shouldn’t change our opinion of the player.

Chris: Do you think players often read scouting reports of themselves from outside sources such as you or BA? And if not, do you think they should?
Klaw: I would hope not. I don’t write these for players. I write them for you.

Sam: Should Mazara be the Rangers LF this year?
Klaw: Doesn’t even have 100 AB above AA, right? I don’t think his bat is ready.

Derek Harvey: Just a heads up if you aren’t already aware, the link you tweeted doesn’t go here, but to an article on ESPN.
Klaw: Fixed, thanks. Too many links. (too many liiiiinks)

Jim: Obviously lots of info still trickling in, but what’s your reaction to the Brooks trade/Fowler signing and possible trades the Cubs might pursue with their outfield surplus?
Klaw: I’ll add that it’s a nice pickup for Oakland. Brooks is an up-and-down guy for me, and deployed properly Coghlan can be worth a win or two.

Matt: When it comes to teams like Atl, Philly, Cincy, etc., would you be in favor of playing the young players/prospects that are close to MLB ready or stop-gap veterans? For example, Jenkins or Blair in Atlanta rather than Kendrick or Chacin. It seems like it would make sense to get the younger players ready and lose that way instead of losing with retreads. Just my thoughts. Thanks, Keith
Klaw: I’d rather play the kids if they’re ready. I would never advocate rushing a kid to a non-contending team just for the sake of not paying a veteran, but I might argue that, say, the Twins should give Buxton the CF job now because his glove and speed will help them even if his bat isn’t quite ready.

Chris: How should qualifying offer process change? I think it’s brutal as is but not sure what would make more sense.
Klaw: All ties between free agency and the draft should be severed.

Alex: How does Aaron Judge not make the top 25 prospects by 2016 impact list? Have to assume he gets promoted when a Beltran or Ellsbury hits the DL.
Klaw: Do we have to assume that? What if he’s striking out 30% of the time in AAA? I’m a big fan of Judge’s, but there’s a significant hurdle for him to clear before he’s ready. Even AA pitchers were exploiting him on the outside edge when I saw him last summer.

Mel Judd: How long before Ray Montgomery gets a GM gig?
Klaw: Really thought the Brewers would promote him, but that whole search process seemed rigged from the start. Attanasio decided who he wanted before it began.

Jon: Is the situation with Lazarito scary and cause to finally clean up/change the international signing process?
Klaw: Not scary, just typical for down there. Lots of people have “invested” in him and want to get paid. MLB should step up its presence in the DR even further, though, because that’s the only way we’ll get more transparency in the process.

ECinDC: In the Impact Players column you mentioned that Danny Espinosa is a poor defender at SS. From the eye test (which admittedly isn’t great), he looks fantastic and had great numbers at 2B. Why the negative assessment, as I have always thought the knock on him to be the weak average/obp?
Klaw: He’s good at 2b but not at short. Also can’t hit. Other than that, great player.

Ed: Do you think Will Benson and Delvin Perez are to HS players that will end up going top 5 this year? Seems like a better HS bat crop than initially reported.
Klaw: Perez might have the best tools in the class, but his makeup is getting a lot of criticism from scouts, directors, even two GMs I asked. He doesn’t always play hard, and there have been some attitude questions even off the field. So he could go top five – he could go top 2 or 3 – or he could slide because teams worry he won’t have the commitment to be a big leaguer. Benson is in the top group of HS position players with Rutherford, Moniak, Nolan Jones.

Ben: Where would have betts and swihart ranked in your top 100 if eligible?
Klaw: Betts just had a 5-WAR season in the majors, right? You can’t put that guy on a top 100 prospects list. It’s like asking where Mike Trout would rank.

Matt B: Which Phillies prospect has the highest ceiling other than Crawford?
Klaw: Kilome. Maybe Randolph, just because he can really hit, but the bar is pretty high for his bat now that he’s in LF.

Tom: Is there any main reason that the Angels have earned their #30 ranking? Bad drafts? Constant giving up their #1 draft pick to sign past their prime free agents?
Klaw: Some bad drafts. Some drafts without high picks. Lots of trades. Some non-development of guys like Cowart, who was a legit first-round pick.

Joe: Why have you fallen of on Moancada?
Klaw: I don’t think I fell off anyone. And this is making me uncomfortable.

mike: what is the Bluejay obsession with Jay Bruce? Jacoby was hitting instructor during his most successful year, but the rumoured acquisition did not match the required additional salary for a limited budget team like Toronto
Klaw: I don’t understand it either. He’s not that good of a player.

John Uskglass: Do you ever, or how often, do you get discouraged when writing about a topic (sports) that always is looking to predict future and find answers on why things are, yet is almost entirely unpredictable because of the ever fluid nature of an athlete’s skills & inherent randomness?
Klaw: No. I recognize the nature of what I’m doing is as much entertainment as anything else. I try to do my job to the best of my abilities, but failure is built in and I’ve come to terms with that.

JT: What is your gut feeling on how Dylan Bundy performs this season?
Klaw: My gut feeling is that he’s hurt and barely pitches if at all.

Matt B: If you had to make a comparison to what Scott kingery could be, what player would you compare him to?
Klaw: Altuve. Now, that’s projecting to an unreasonable extent on Kingery’s hit tool, but bear in mind I had him as a first-round talent in June, so I’m fairly optimistic on him. It’s a similar profile, but Altuve was in the big leagues at Kingery’s age.

Dane: Having an arguement with a friend, i think a trade involving Bogaerts for Harvey straight up is awful. Pitchers are always a questionable investment. Bogaerts is a once in a lifetime player. Thoughts?
Klaw: I would not trade Bogaerts for Harvey, but I don’t think Xander is a “once in a lifetime player.”

Ted: JBJ + for Soler. Both OFs align nicer this way. Any chance?
Klaw: Makes no sense for the Cubs. The hell would they need with another outfielder?

Nate A: Keith your thoughts on the slide rule change, particularly the change in ability to review neighborhood plays?
Klaw: If this causes umps to get the neighborhood play right more frequently, great. If this means 200 more replay delays this year to overturn stubborn umps who refuse to call the neighborhood play as it should be, not great.

Thomas: What is a realistic ceiling for Max Kepler? Could he be a 300/370/450 guy with 50 XBH a year?
Klaw: Think there’s a little more power in there.

cw: Delvin Perez, AJ Puk, or Jason Groome to Philly? I’m leaning Perez
Klaw: I would bet you right now it’s none of the above. I see virtually zero chance it’s Groome, not much more it’s Perez, and if you’re offering me Puk or the field, I’m taking the field. Ray, Jefferies, Jones, one of those prep bats I mentioned – plenty of other options.

Jason: Do you see the “top” college arms like Puk and Hansen falling this spring behind the draft’s HS bats and possibly arms?
Klaw: Hansen needs to pitch well, stat. He came into the year with a red flag on his elbow, and then was awful week one. Puk will go pretty high as a “safe” college lefty with size and stuff.

Jason: Remember during the last CBA negotiations how the new IFA restrictions were to prevent large teams from throwing money around and helping to protect smaller markets. Funny how that ended up.
Klaw: Every time MLB has tried to tweak its tax code to implement social policies, it has backfired. I’m shocked, shocked to find this.

Alan: Any feedback regarding catcher Sean Murphy from Wright State?
Klaw: He seems like a solid first rounder.

RAW: I notice you didn’t mention Vogelbach in your Cubs top ten+. Is he simply a non-prospect?
Klaw: For me, yes. DH only who hasn’t hit for much power.

Alex: If Groome and Perez are picked 1-2, what names should the Braves look at with the 3rd pick? When will you post your first mock draft?
Klaw: Those guys are not 1-2. Again, I see virtually no chance the Phillies take Groome, or any HS pitcher, at 1. My first mock draft will be about three weeks before draft day, so early to mid-May. Anything too far before that is a fabrication.

Josh: Tough board game question: I have an 8 year old daughter, recently diagnosed with ASD. As part of her therapy it’s been suggested that she play board games. What are some suggestions that won’t bore me to tears? She has attention and sensory issues. Long waits between turns is bad. Things she can interact with by touch are good. She is very bright, so that’s not an issue.
Klaw: That’s a really good question. Of the games I know, many of which are aimed at older kids or adults, Splendor is pretty quick between turns and has thick plastic tokens as well as cards and cardboard badges. Jaipur, which is just a two-player game, has similar components. They’re also both simple for an 8-year-old to learn. I’ve also played Splendor with a kid about that age who has sensory processing disorder, and she liked it.

Ray: I know you value defense highly, but what kind of hitter can we expect Nick Williams to be as a big leaguer? 20 HR, 20 SB, .280 BA type bat?
Klaw: Not sold on that kind of average, and I think he’ll always be a low OBP guy. Could see that 20/20 profile though.

James: Do you believe Groome will go #1 to the Phils? Local guy , they love him.
Klaw: /slams head into kitchen table

BD: A few years ago in chat, you actually suggested the Nats move Espinosa to SS, because he could handle it, and because it would improve his trade value since there was more scarcity at SS. Just saying.
Klaw: A few years later, he’s no longer very good there. Let’s not pretend players never change or that defense doesn’t get worse as a player approaches or passes 30. Just saying.

Thomas: Just read Moneyball again recently. Do you agree with the Athletics on not taking high school players due to the risks involved? Or is it more of a case by case basis for you?
Klaw: Never. It was a good idea, briefly, while college players were being undervalued by the industry. That window closed fast.

JakeInCanada: Does Anthony Alford’s particular skillset give him a chance for a high ceiling, high floor, or both/none? He’s been impressive, considering his time away from baseball.
Klaw: High ceiling especially because I think there’s more power to come.

Kevin (DC): The Yankees are trying Refsnyder at 3B. It will likely end in disaster, but I kind of like the idea that they at least tried. Are other teams looking at this approach for player development?
Klaw: I agree. They don’t get enough credit for trying out players at different positions where they might have more value. Doesn’t have to work all the time to be a good strategy. Cardinals have done this a little, with Carson Kelly the most notable example.

Ed: Regarding your mention of Delvin Perez’s makeup concerns, would you draft a player with a great skill set hoping he will mature or would you not waste a top 10 pick on a potential headache?
Klaw: If it’s just immaturity, I’d take the risk, especially since I think he has 1-1 caliber tools (at least in this class he does). If the kid had anger issues, or a drug problem, or something else worse – none of which is true about Perez to the best of my knowledge – I would pass. I remember when Elijah Dukes was in the draft class, and I was with Toronto; he had first-round tools but we wanted no part of him.

Tom: My 9 year old son and I finished all the Kazaam books on your Jasper Fforde suggestion a couple of months ago. Any other readaloud suggestions?
Klaw: Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle and Castle in the Sky have both been hits with my daughter.

@Jaypers413: Don’t most managers and pitching coaches take more than 30 seconds just to make it to the mound?
Klaw: Well, you know, hurry the fuck up already.

John Uskglass: With regards to top prospects, what do you think a reasonable expectation is of them? I know everyone thinks a player ranked in the top ten of top 100 prospects list is destined to be a superstar, but the odds of that are way lower than people think. I would think the front office looks at it as a success if a top prospect turns out average to above average WAR seasons for multiple years and fans are disappointed in anything less than multiple 6+ WAR seasons. Like if Byron Buxton’s WAR then next 5 years (assuming regular playing time) were: 1.3, 1.6, 3.6, 3, 2.4. How many people would take that right now?
Klaw: I think the Twins would see that as very disappointing. I would too. He might only be a 1-2 WAR player now, because I’m afraid he’ll post a .290 OBP this year, but he has 4+ WAR upside and I would hope after 1000 major league PA he’d have made some adjustments at the plate.

Stu: Would Kyle Lewis be too big of a reach at #3 for Atlanta?
Klaw: Hell yes. Can’t take a college kid with that noisy a swing and that much swing and miss at 3 overall.

BD: If you were to do one… overspend your rule 4 draft budget (and take penalty), or overspend your IFA budget (and that that penalty)?
Klaw: The IFA penalty is just money, so that’s the easy choice. That said, if Bryce Harper were in the draft class, and I was picking 2nd or 3rd, you’re damn right I’d call him and offer him $20 million and take the penalty.

Chris: Matt Bowman gonna stick on Cardinals roster?
Klaw: I don’t see how. Nice pitcher, great AAA depth starter, but where does he fit for them?

Alex_NY: If you could pick one Mets starter to pitch a do or die game, who would it be?
Klaw: Harvey. No disrespect to Thor or deGrom. You could do a lot worse.

Michael: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I assume you were a baseball fan before you got into the industry. For those of us interested in sports as a career, does having baseball as a job take away some of its enjoyment and turn a hobby into a job or hassle?
Klaw: It is a job now, not a hobby. I still enjoy the sport, enjoy watching it and following it, but you see how many other hobbies or interests I have, and that is in part because I want things in my life that are not work. Baseball is work now.

David: You ever read the Game of Thrones books?
Klaw: First one. Hated it. Lurid, rapey crap.

Goldenface: Do you believe there are any analytics (velocity, pitch type, pitch F/X data, etc.) that can crack the mystery of predicting injuries, or are injuries just a thing that are too dependent on the specifics of the player in question and we won’t be able to accurately apply a large data analysis?
Klaw: I lean towards the latter. Of course, we should keep trying, but I think genetics play too big a role for us to ever get to a level of certainty that makes us comfortable with the type of decisions we make around estimates of future health.

Alex_NY: What should the Mets strategy be in the draft? Best player available, young, top HS talent, more developed college players, etc?
Klaw: Every team’s strategy should be best players available. I say “players,” because sometimes you’ll cut a deal at pick #6 to get a better player at pick #38, and that’s how you end up with the best portfolio of players.

Ryan: Can Sam Tuivailala be an above average reliever? I’ve heard that he could potentially be a closer some day. Are people only saying this because he throws hard or is that potential there?
Klaw: Slider is legit when it’s on. I think he could be a closer some day too. The sample is too small to mean much, but I like that he missed more bats in August and September last year, at least.

Daniel: You know deception is valuable when pitchers Like Chris Young and his 84 MPH are still relatively successful.
Klaw: Yep. It’s going to be a big part of Sean Manaea’s success in the majors too. Left-handed hitters especially won’t see the ball.

Dave: For the child with sensory issues, try King of Tokyo. My 8 year old loves it. Vibrant board, fun monsters, lots of dice rolls, etc.
Klaw: Thank you. Time between turns might a little long.

Jason: Blake Snell isn’t going to make an impact this year?
Klaw: I never said that.

Dan: Thoughts on the Twins saying Sano won’t play any third base this year?
Klaw: I don’t blame them.

Drew: What do you think Connor Jones’ ceiling is?
Klaw: I’m going to see him tomorrow afternoon. I think mid-rotation starter with good probability. Maybe a little more if that sink is as good as I think it is.

Michael: Do you agree with MLB’s handling of Jose Reyes? Does the result of his criminal case really matter?
Klaw: I wonder if they are hoping the criminal case solves the problem for them. If he’s convicted, or pleads to anything, they can just point to that and suspend him for a long time.

Braves: Think this news regarding Lazarito bodes well for the Braves signing him? A duo with him and Maitan would be an impressive haul…
Klaw: I think Lazarito is highly overrated by folks who have never seen him play.

cw: Are you worried about Trump being President?
Klaw: I’ll put it this way: I don’t want him to be President. But Sinclair Lewis told me it can’t happen here.

Matt: In comparison to the every-year 16 yr dominican/venezuelan J2 pitchers, how good a prospect is Adrian Morejon? i know there was a report of an 8-figure bonus, is this purely a cuba-tax? is his talent even close to justifying it?
Klaw: From what I’ve heard, he’s worth it, or something close.

Keith: If Matz stays relatively healthy moving forward, what is his ceiling? Also, is he so injury plagued? Delivery looks relatively easy, seemingly somewhat durable build…
Klaw: Look at the history of injuries. I only mentioned some of them in the top 100 capsule and there were more I omitted. It’s probably a #2 starter if you think he can handle 180+ on a regular basis. He’s never reached 150, though, and he’s been in pro ball since 2009.

José (not Peraza): I read from several sources that José Peraza was an elite defensive SS not that long ago. What happened? Is ti all mismanagement, poor evaluation or something else?
Klaw: Don’t think he was elite, but I think he could have been elite had he stayed there. Now he’s two years off the position and hasn’t developed much if at all with the bat.

Raphael: Hey Keith. How come Correa (listed at 6’4, 210 lbs) doesn’t face the same questions about being able to stick at SS as Seager does?
Klaw: Seager’s bigger and less agile. Correa faces those questions too, by the way. I don’t think Correa’s still a shortstop in five years.

Drew: If possible, while in Charlottesville,
Klaw: Love it. Been twice. Cool space too, although last time I was there it was overpacked.

PhillyJake: KLaw for President?
Klaw: Eric B. for President. I’ll be VP.

TJ: 20-80 scale, how difficult will the next round of CBA talks be between the owners and the players be? Would either side be willing to risk killing their golden goose?
Klaw: 30. Everyone’s making bank. The sticking points are all around the margins.

Paul: With 12 man pitching staffs, do you think more teams featuring staffs with lower K/9 and stuff should adopt the Rays / 3 times through the order approach for their worst starters, supplanting them with long-men? I think about the Twins rotation, and with health and their youth, you could maximize many 120 IP for the guys by turning like Nolasco/Milone/May as a caddy for the starter.
Klaw: I think that you’re going to see more teams employ long men and keep starters on shorter workloads not just for the TTO penalty, but to try to keep them healthy by just plain using them less.

Nate: Ever stayed at any of the DVC properties while at WDW? (Wondering about Old Key West in particular)
Klaw: Yes. Pricey, but high quality.

Stu: Do you have any thoughts on Jeren Kendall as a prospect, or is it too early?
Klaw: Guy was a top 20 talent out of high school. He’s only gotten better, but he’s been well-known and very well-regarded for about three years now. Could have had $1.5MM at least out of HS.

Rob: Was Gary Sanchez under consideration for your list? I gather lack of obvious playing time is an issue.
Klaw: He was not, for that very reason.

Jon: What is the best way to clean a cast iron grill pan? Steel wool?
Klaw: No, a non-abrasive pad like a Dobie. Clean right away with soap and hot water, rinse, dry FULLY, then heat with a little oil to retreat the surface.

Andy: So assuming that at the least, Reyes’ trade value is shot, the Rockies traded a possible top 15 player in MLB for extra money in 2018-2020 and 3 pitching prospects who currently rank as two possible #3’s and a future reliever. That’s bad asset management.
Klaw: Well, clearing the money was probably the priority there.

Corey: Do you think Pat Light will make a contribution in the pen this year or more likely next season? What about Marmol, Sox have identified a delivery issue supposedly and think they can fix him.
Klaw: I’ll believe in Marmol having value when I see it. This strikes me as more “the games haven’t started and we need something to write about” than “hey, this guy who hasn’t been good in six years is good again.” Light is ready to help in middle relief.

Craig: Is Eric Thames that much better than when he was a major leaguer or is the KBO that bad?
Klaw: The KBO is a lot worse than MLB and it’s a very high-offense league.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Going to NOLA for the first time (the city, not the Phillies pitcher). What’s your #1 place to eat there?
Klaw: Cochon.

mtsw: Britton for Soler make sense for both side on paper?
Klaw: Not for the Cubs.

Mike: Jason Heyward being the first MLBer younger than me was enough to make me feel old, but j2’ers born in 2000? That’s too much.
Klaw: I’m old enough now that the HS kids in this draft were all born when I was in grad school.

Scotty G: Could Carlos Martinez become an elite, Cy Young candidate pitcher this season – what is his ceiling in your opinion?
Klaw: Might put him in the Matz category of “great when healthy but not often healthy.”

Jimmy: Do you think Jorge Polanco can handle SS as soon as this season? Or is he the eventual successor to Dozier? Maybe they can just bench Dozier post-ASB since he hits like Brian Dennehey in the 2nd half.
Klaw: You’re eventually going to want more defense at short than Polanco will provide, but he might be their everyday guy there by the midpoint.

Justin: Thoughts on Isan Diaz? Does he eventually end up at 2B?
Klaw: I think third base. Not a shortstop. Looks like he’ll hit enough for 2b or 3b.

Dana: Seems like a Brett Gardner trade to the Angels for young pitching makes a lot of sense for both sides. Am I missing something?
Klaw: You’re missing the part that helps the Angels.

Bill: What is it about Devon Travis, on the field, that you are not high on? What are his major flaws?
Klaw: Don’t like the swing or the defense.

Kevin: Hi Keith, Jays Fan. Please tell me Shapiro is smart enough to not pay Bautista for his past? He has averaged about 4.5 fangraphs WAR the last 4 years. What would have been fair value for that? $20m/year? Use him for a playoff run this year and take the compensation pick for the qualifying offer at year end.
Klaw: No chance. I think Bautista made Shapiro’s life easy.

Jeff: I am very interested in your thoughts on Billy Hamilton. Does he generate enough productivity with speed and defense that it is worth playing him every day, or do you think the bat will put him on the bench?
Klaw: He does, but he should hit 8th or 9th.

Rob: It seems from Twitter that you and Jonathan Mayo are on one side of the Amed Rosario divide. Is he divisive because his profile has seemingly changed? What’s the good outcome here? Alcides Escobar with a little more bat?
Klaw: I think we’re both big believers in him, no? Rosario can hit and he’s going to come into some power. It’s bat speed and strength. He went from short-season right to St. Lucie, which dampens power considerably.

Alex: I picked up Section Eleven on your recommendation Monday after work. I finished it Tuesday, it was fantastic, thank you. Do you have any recommendations for similar books? I have read most of David Mitchell.
Klaw: Bel Canto by Ann Patchett.

Nils: Hi Keith, who is the best defensive OFer in your top 100? Maybe Brinson? Alford?
Klaw: Buxton, Brinson, Margot, Almora, Alford.

Chris: Thoughts on cooking with a slow cooker?
Klaw: I’m cooking a pork shoulder in mine right now.

Jake: What’s your feeling on expensive restaurants with lengthy tasting menus (to name a few in NYC, Ko, Blanca, Chef’s Table) – great experience, colossal waste of money, or something in between?
Klaw: I’ve had the nine-course-plus-little plates meal at the Catbird Seat in Nashville, which featured amazing food but was also very much an experience in presentation, show, and technical skills. I would have a hard time spending that kind of money on even an infrequent basis, though, as great as that meal was. I can only eat so much.

John: Please break down the Fowler deal and how it effects the Cubs and the O’s please. Thanks. Really want to get your opinion here
Klaw: There’s nothing to break down. He went back to where he was, and he was never an Oriole anyway.

Michael: How far would you be willing to go on Bautista right now? 4 years/$80MM?
Klaw: Nope. Less.

Tom: Just how bad are the Phillies going to be this year? I have some hope for a little more excitement and a few more wins than last year.
Klaw: I think they’re going to be very interesting by the second half, when a bunch of the kids should be up and playing. It may not mean more wins, but it would be a much better product to watch. I’ll probably go to some games myself once the Crawfords and Appels and Thompsons are up.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for the questions. I will be traveling for most of March, but will do my best to chat weekly, just adjusting the day around my movements.

Klawchat 2/17/16.

The index to all 30 MLB farm reports and top tens is now up; all reports are Insider except for Baltimore’s, which is free for all readers. Insiders can also read my top 100 prospects ranking and my my ranking of all 30 farm systems.

Klaw: This generation rules the nation … with Klawchat.

Danny B: Will Jacob Turner (one of your breakout picks from last year) get another opportunity to start or is he viewed as a reliever due to his fragility?
Klaw: Last I’d heard he was healthy but I can’t imagine he gets a starter’s workload, at least to start the year, given that he missed all of last season.

Jose: Hi Keith. I’d like to know your thoughts on Yulieski Gurriele and his brother. Also, did you hear something about the showcase Cuban player Alexei Bell had in Mexico? According to El Nuevo Herald the scouts were impressed with his demonstration.
Klaw: I’ve only seen Yuliesky, and he was awful. I’ve heard he was much, much better this past winter – body was better, effort was better, quality of contact was there. He was a star back in 2006 but I think you’re hoping to get maybe two productive years from him. I don’t even try to keep track of all the Cuban players’ showcases now; there are too many players and too few of them are clearly worth following at the moment. I’ll catch them when they sign.

steven: Is it fair to say that Dom Smith profiles as a somewhat similar hitter to Michael Conforto? Both are lefty, have unusually refined approaches, use the whole field and are more likely to get their value from doubles and high obp than classic power albeit Smith seems to have the edge in avg and Conforto will have more power.
Klaw: Smith has a lot more power than he’s shown, as I’ve written a few times. Both have a great approach but Smith is stronger than Conforto was at the same age.

Daniel: Travis Lakins pitched 2IP in Lowell and was ranked no.10 in the Red Sox system (soxprospects has him at 23). What led you to place him so high?
Klaw: It has absolutely nothing to do with how much a player played in pro ball last year. He pitched the whole spring (96 innings) for Ohio State and was scouted the whole spring too. The rankings are based on scouting reports, mine and those of scouts I talk to, as much as statistics.

Justin S.: In your top 10 for each Farm you included impact players for 2016. I was curious why you left off players like Seager (too obvious), Giolito , PJ Crawford, Jose Peralta and Julio Urias ? Do you believe they aren’t going to get called up this year?
Klaw: Seager’s already up and has a job. I don’t think those others are getting called up any time soon.

Fitzy: In your Blue Jays report, you mentioned that Rowdy Tellez couldn’t turn on an average fastball, but I believe that he homered off James Paxton in the AFL on an up and in fastball. Was Paxton’s velocity down? Just curious, thanks for all your great work.
Klaw: Two problems with this question. One, if I say a player “can’t hit lefties,” I don’t mean he’s going to go 0 for 150 against them. So Tellez might occasionally cheat on a fastball and hit it, but over a long span of time good fastballs will eat him up. Two, Paxton was only throwing fastballs and changeups, no breaking balls, so Tellez could easily cheat whereas a lefty who could spin something away from him wouldn’t permit that.

Jay B: Is the Cubs’ 2018 CF currently in their system?
Klaw: Almora is the safest bet for that.

Cliff: Why are you such a pompous douschebag?
Klaw: Because someone has to put illiterates like you in their place.

Amit: Quick analysis on the A’s/Brewers trade from last week?
Klaw: You saw my notes on the prospects in the Brewers farm report, so needless to say I wouldn’t have given Nottingham up for a below-average regular like Davis.

Woodman: Giants avoided arbitration with Belt, but local radio is saying he’s not the long-term 1B solution and that Giants should move Posey to 1B full-time in a few years. Posey is one of the best catchers in baseball. Is it smart to throw away a great catcher to make him a good 1B?
Klaw: If the concern is injury, yes. You also see some teams move catchers (Harper, Myers) out from behind the plate to get their bats in the lineup 160 games a year rather than 135, which is understandable but of course can take quite a toll in lost value. And if the player doesn’t hit, as Myers hasn’t other than his rookie year, then you might have a below-average regular where behind the plate you might have had an average one.

Tom R.: Is all of Newman’s value tied to his glove or do you really think he will be a good enough hitter to be a borderline star?
Klaw: I think he can hit and I know he can really run. The Pirates are going contrarian – in an era where many teams have taken strikeouts from hitters as the cost of doing business, they’re following the Royals’ model and focusing on guys who put the ball in play. I don’t know if it’s right but I love the idea.

Chris: Non-baseball Q: Preferred way to cook a duck? I roasted my first duck recently, and used a “steam the whole bird, then cut up and roast the pieces” method. It came out great, but was thinking of maybe doing legs/thighs and breasts using different methods next time (e.g. roast breast meat, confit legs).
Klaw: I cooked one whole once and won’t do it again. Better to braise or confit the legs, sear the breasts (or sous-vide and sear?), and save the bones to make the best stock you’ll ever make at home.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: What does Fedde need to do to crack your Hundee?
Klaw: A third pitch would be a good start. I’m not sure what he has now is more than fourth starter worthy.

Drew: If something horrible happened to Joe Mauer, is Max Kepler ready on opening day ?
Klaw: Yes. But you make it sound like you’re planning something.

Ruhlman: What kind(s) of salt do you use when cooking? Do you find a noticeable difference between Morton’s and $10/2oz. pink Himalayan sea salt?
Klaw: Nope. It’s all sodium chloride. The shape is what matters.

Andrew: I’ve seen some grades on Buxton at 80 run/80 glove, etc…which prospect(s) can you think of with multiple 80 grades – that would seem pretty rare (maybe Bo Jackson?)
Klaw: Gallo has 80 power and an 80 arm. See that a lot with guys who were also good pitchers in HS – Buxton was mid-90s when I saw him.

Ryan: Hey Keith, I know you touched on it briefly in your top 10 for the Cardinals but I was wondering if you could expand a bit more on why you had Plummer below Woodford despite Plummer ranking a lot higher in your 2015 draft rankings. Thanks
Klaw: I explained at the top of the chat last week that I don’t rely on my own previous rankings to create the next set – that becomes stubbornness rather than just consistency. Plummer looked more raw over the summer than expected, while Woodford was at least as advanced as we thought going into the draft, maybe a little more so.

Andrew: “Tanking” has been a big topic recently – I would contend that there is a difference between “designing a team for failure” and simply not wasting money on players who won’t ultimately make a team significantly better and exchanging assets for long-term value. Is this an argument of semantics? I just don’t see it as “designing teams to fail.”
Klaw: I agree with you. Tanking in baseball doesn’t really work. It’s just not wasting money. NBA teams seem to actually tank.

Ed: I believe the Cubs are starting Happ in high A to help develop his skills at 2nd. My question is, don’t you get essentially the same experience at a defensive position no matter what level you play, and therefore wouldn’t it make sense to continue to develop his bat at the appropriate level?
Klaw: You’d expect balls in play to be harder, or more consistently hard, the higher up in the minors you go.

Pat: Keith – Have a question about Bundy’s exclusion from your Orioles org rankings. Why include Hart – who you admit has to repeat A ball and has no power or speed — and not Bundy. Think even a relief career is unlikely for Dylan at this point?
Klaw: Bundy has a calcification in his shoulder and it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to pitch.

Jack: Newman’s performance in the PAC-12 doesn’t concern you at all? The guy had a low-.300s OBP in conference play as a junior…
Klaw: yeah, but what did he do on alternate Tuesdays?

Jerry: Keith, You were previously very high on Brandon Nimmo, it not longer seems to be the case. What has changed? Where did the athleticism go? Odds he can still be a big league regular? MLB starting CF?
Klaw: He just stopped getting better at an age and level when he should have gotten better. He never developed power, and his defense in CF has slipped a little bit each year.

Larry: Jorge Mateo will likely be a better player as a whole than Billy Hamilton, true?
Klaw: I’ll bet on that, yes.

Jesse: Shaun King and the NY Daily News have embarrassed themselves. Work like that gives journalism a bad name. He obviously had a goal to diminish Peyton Manning because of his belief Cam Newton was criticized for his behavior after the SB because of race. That’s not a defense for Peyton Manning because I believe it’s two separate issues. Just terrible journalism there. How do you not have an attorney assist with an article like that?
Klaw: I agree he should have had an attorney assist with the article, but the only part that matters is the court filings, not what King did or didn’t say about them. (Also, of course Newton was criticized for his behavior because of race.)

Eric: Of the no longer eligible prospects, who are some of your breakout sleepers for 2016?
Klaw: I’ll write that article at some point in March.

Danny: I know this is a hypothetical, but should the Jays have kept Syndergaard instead of Sanchez? (Or do you attribute significant part of current difference in their outlook to the team’s approaches, which would have been different…)
Klaw: If Sanchez had gone to the Mets instead, perhaps his delivery wouldn’t have changed for the worse, and he’d be in the Mets’ rotation. It’s far from certain – I mean, it’s clear that the Mets did very well in getting Thor – but it’s a possible scenario given what did happen with Sanchez afterwards.

Craig: Can Jake Nottingham be a passable MLB catcher or is his long-term future at 1B? Does he hit well-enough to justify a transition to 1B?
Klaw: I think there’s a reasonable enough chance he can catch that I’d leave him there for now.

Tom: Is most scouting of HS players done at showcase events? Seems like it would be tougher to gauge value at actual HS games.
Klaw: Showcase events bring their own problems – pitchers coming in for one inning trying to air it out, players getting maybe two at bats and trying to hit something hard or out, game outcomes not mattering. So scouts will fan the country all spring seeing those same players in real games for their high school teams as much as they can.

Nick: If the Mets have 5 reasonable, healthy starters when Wheeler comes back (big if), what do you think about easing him back from TJ as an 8th inning guy for this season only?
Klaw: Hate it. Guy coming off TJ shouldn’t be used as a short reliever, where it’s get up for an inning, air it out, and maybe come back again the next day. Long reliever, sure, throw 2-3 innings here and then take 3 days off.

Tom: Are there examples of successful MLB pitchers that have missed as much time as Taillon and Bundy due to injuries in the minors?
Klaw: Steven Matz missed two years and contributed in the majors last year.

Drew: Ben Carson is a really smart guy. That just blows my mind.
Klaw: He also denies evolution, so, ease up there.

Brian: Keith – don’t think I see you review many classic crime/detective novels, but have you read any from that genre you would recommend?
Klaw: I don’t review many of them but I’ve read a ton – all of Chandler and Hammett, a dozen or more of Stout’s Nero Wolfe novels, Jim Thompson’s books, James Cain, and so on.

Pat: People make a big deal out of the PECOTA projections. It’s an admirable attempt, but really is it possible to accurately project in mid-February an win/loss record? Seems like there are way too many variables
Klaw: I think you’re right, and I think it’s stupid to go to execs or coaches or players and shove a projection in their face and say “See? This computer says you suck! Care to comment?” but there is no question in my mind that well-built computer projections will beat any individual person’s guesses on standings (yes, including mine).

Pat: Going off that high school scouting question, it seems likely that a lot of players would slip through the cracks. Particularly if the players aren’t attending showcases.
Klaw: This is why teams employ area scouts, and should continue to do so, perhaps even adding more, even in the face of what seems like an industry trend toward employing fewer.

Jim: When scouting a HS game with only one known prospect, do scouts spend the time he is not pitching/batting looking for diamonds in the rough or do they just mess around on their phone?
Klaw: Usually I spend that time tweeting to you and the other scouts spend the time reading my tweets.

Justin: When a player like Joc Pederson demonstrates good plate discipline and pitch recognition in terms of walk rate, but also has a high strikeout rate, what are some things that it might be attributable to?
Klaw: Don’t think he has good pitch recognition, just good ball/strike recognition. Could be attributable to a poor two-strike approach, or to the bat head getting out of the zone too quickly, or lack of bat speed to catch up to good fastballs in the zone.

michael: would you say that your top 100 prospects list is indicative of the trade value that they would have in the market? For example, would you always trade your #51 prospect if you had the opportunity to get #50?
Klaw: The difference between #51 and #50 is negligible.

BD: Ole Miss SS Errol Robinson is a ___ round draft pick?
Klaw: Second. Maybe third, probably second.

Joe: On talent alone, would Bundy still be in your top 100? I know this is basically a ridiculous question, but could you help settle a pretty big argument I’ve had with some people?
Klaw: What talent remains? If you’re asking where he’d rank had he never gotten hurt, the answer is he’d be in Baltimore’s rotation and not on my rankings.

Jon: Does the string of Baltimore pitching non success stories scare you away from Kevin Gausman? How would you compare the outlook between him and a not as heralded prospect, up and comer like DeSclafani or Heston?
Klaw: The way they’ve messed with his position on the rubber would scare me, yes. But if he goes somewhere else, like Jake Arrieta, he could become the star he was supposed to be out of LSU.

Allan: BA put a 50 on Gallo’s hit tool. If he gets there, a league average hitting Gallo is a demi-god, right?
Klaw: Yeah, that player probably ends up in the Hall of Fame. I would not put a 50 on his hit tool myself, but if that’s what he is, he’s probably going to hit 500 homers.

Tom: Anytime you offer an opinion about the DBacks, their fans always seem to point out you don’t know what you’re talking about. Of course, their only counter ever is “Goldschmidt.” So by Rickey Henderson type math, doesn’t that mean you’re right 99% of the rest of the time?
Klaw: Sure, but even so, getting some players wrong (and I’ve had my share) doesn’t mean I’m wrong on all players. It’s a cowardly response to change the subject like that.

Dan: I’ve been watching a lot more TV with my kids while on leave helping my wife (brain tumor removed last month). I’m surprised at how long some of those shows have been on the air for (eg Peppa Pig and Bubble Guppies). I know you’re not a big TV guy but are there any shows you particularly liked watching with your daughter? I have the ones I like, the ones I tolerate (mentioned above), and ones that are strictly to be watched while I’m in the other room. For the record, I don’t stick them in front of the TV all day but do allow some relaxation times.
Klaw: I hope your wife’s doing better now. We tried to keep my daughter on PBS shows (except Caillou) as long as we could. Once she started on Nick Jr. we noticed a big dropoff in quality. We got some mileage out of Dinosaur Train and Sid the Science Kid before the insipid Bubble Guppies showed up.

Pat: Gausman doesn’t have to go somewhere else to have success if the O’s reevaluate their one-size-fits-all approach to developing arms. You’d think by now they would have done so.
Klaw: It’s their way or the highway. After this many years and this many arms going wrong, they still haven’t made the adjustment.

Cataniac: Is it fair to say that short of a Josh Lueke or Ben Christensen situation with a demonstrably bad human, you root for every prospect to excel?
Klaw: Yep. Even ones I’ve said will not be good. These are real people with dreams and goals, most of whom work hard to achieve something unattainable to the rest of us. I could never root against any of these kids.

Jason: Wait, I just read the NY Daily News article by Shaun King this morning. Now, after a previous question, I went back and read the “backlash” which just seems to be whole heaps of the logical fallacy of attacking the person of Shaun King. Did I miss something? Like you said, the court records are there. Are people having trouble believing the court records? I also don’t understand how people can ignore the job track of Peyton’s victim. Why do people want to defend abusers?
Klaw: The genetic fallacy had a huge week on social media. And people want to defend abusers when admitting that, say, Peyton Manning sexually assaulted a woman and repeatedly worked to ruin her life would conflict with their childlike adulation of a man who was good at throwing a football.

Urban: Recognizing you can’t be everywhere all the time, how do you balance in-person scouting vs. video scouting, especially when it comes to players in the amateur draft?
Klaw: This is why I try to talk to lots of scouts. Even players I see, I often see just once in the spring, not the 3-4 times I’d like for a first-rounder.

BD: You mentioned Blake Perkins, but not Andrew Stevenson. Any thoughts on him?
Klaw: Thought he might be a fourth outfielder. Maybe.

Josh: Is it now officially draft season for you?
Klaw: More or less. Starting this weekend.

Addoeh: My 5 year loved Dino Dan. He learned a lot about dinosaurs and became interested in that show.
Klaw: Dino Dan is just Willard for the single-digit set.

Todd: Better player when all is said and done: Jimmy Rollins or J.P Crawford?
Klaw: I think Crawford is a better prospect right now than Rollins was at the same age. Rollins got almost everything out of his abilities; if Crawford does the same, he’ll end up the better player.

Scott: I see that Josh Hamilton’s knee is bothering him again, should the Rangers, at this point, make him a bench player and let Gallo play or would Gallo benefit from more AAA time?
Klaw: Gallo would benefit from more AAA time, and so would Mazara, but if Hamilton misses half the year – and you know you’re thinking that’s what’s going to happen – then I’d rather push one of those kids a little than go spend money on some fill-in.

Josh: Why do you think zach eflin is a bullpen pitcher? He is still young for his level.
Klaw: That’s not any sort of counterargument. A player can be young for his level and still lack the essential tools or skills to reach some particular ceiling. I like Eflin, but there’s no consistent breaking ball there.

Ed: I continue to be befuddled by the Dbacks’ all in approach for this year, especially since the same strategy failed miserably for the Pads last year. I get that LaRussa / Stewart are stuck in the past but you’d think that a responsible owner would be more diligent in who they pick to run their team. Especially with the size of the contracts they’ve handed out and the complete forsaking of the future of the club through internal development.
Klaw: I truly don’t understand how Kendrick can look at how the team’s been run the last sixteen or seventeen months and think “This is fine, I’m okay with the events that are unfolding currently.” Even if the team is better right now, they’re so much worse off in the long run for all of these trades.

Jason: It’s only natural that you would be closer with certain front offices or scouts, or that you would just have more access to inside information for certain teams than others. How do you work to avoid inadvertent bias in prospect rankings?
Klaw: I talk to people in every single organization every winter, and to scouts with plenty of organizations, building in redundancy wherever possible. I don’t think there’s any such bias in my rankings.

Hank: Did Nomar Mazara come out of nowhere? Not to say he wasn’t a known commodity, but it sure seems like he’s the biggest riser in the prospect community.
Klaw: I’ve had him stuffed for a while now. Don’t think he rose that fast.

Chris: New DIIV album: the same “not bad but the songs all start sounding the same as with their last album” or “pretty decent and one I’d recommend?”
Klaw: All DIIV songs sound the same to me. It’s a nice sound, but I can’t really tell them apart. New album could easily be the last one with the songs reordered and I might not notice the difference.

Urban: Are there certain types of pitches that might be more effective based on height? For example, would it make more sense to try and teach a slider to someone below 6 ft. as opposed to a curve, or no difference?
Klaw: In theory, yes, but then Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman both have these outstanding curveballs and how could you take that away from a kid who has the laxity in his wrist to throw one? One thing I do believe, though, is that a shorter pitcher who doesn’t naturally get plane or sink on his four-seamer should learn a two-seamer or true sinker. Otherwise he’ll be homer-prone.

Molly: Other than Seager, will any of the Dodgers prospects have an impact on this season?
Klaw: I don’t see where, barring injury. If Kendrick gets hurt, Micah Johnson could play second. If Pederson gets hurt (or doesn’t hit again), Trayce Thompson could play CF. No idea how far away Yusnier Diaz is. I really like Jharel Cotton as a reliever – he could be one of those off-radar relievers who’s pitching the 8th inning in October.

Mike: Thoughts on Bowie as a rapist? Seems he’s getting a Manning like pass because of his great career, but he slept with at least one 15 year old and was accused by others of rape.
Klaw: Also gets a bit of a pass because he’s dead, and because the 15-year-old has said it was consensual and has never regretted it. (Still illegal – I’m not defending him.) We should just stop pretending our sporting and artistic heroes are somehow beyond doing awful things.

John: I was surprised Adam Brett Walker didn’t get mentioned in the other Twins prospects. Supposedly his raw power matches or exceeds Sano’s. Is his hit tool so poor he has no real chance of making it to the majors?
Klaw: That’s false on his raw power. He can’t hit and is awful anywhere but 1b.

FG: As a scout you always seem to know what to look for in a player and often write in your articles changes you think a player should make to have more success. That makes me curious as to why you dont think youd be a good coach (your words)? WHere is the disconnect in the two. Thanks!
Klaw: I think it’d be very hard to establish credibility with players when I didn’t play and never coached before. I’m also not at all sold that I have complete enough knowledge to help players enough to do that job.

Skippy: Has Michael Ohlman reestablished himself as a legit piece or did he have a fluke season? I also read he’s improved defensively?
Klaw: Just a guy repeating a level and getting marginally better. I heard nothing about him improving defensively.

Terry: Is Sam Travis’ ceiling Eric Hosmer without the glove?
Klaw: This comp doesn’t work for me.

Andrew: I think you’ve mentioned a few times that the Astros encouraged Appel to throw a 4-seamer instead of a 2-seamer (or vice versa?), which you suggested could have been a mistake…why would they have done this? What is the perceived advantage? Thanks.
Klaw: I know Houston has emphasized throwing four-seamers up for swings and misses. In general, that’s true, and it’s an underutilized pitch because of the fear of missing and giving up hard contact. But some pitchers are better able to pitch like that than others. Appel doesn’t have great deception in his delivery and his four-seamer is too true for him to get away with this.

James: I don’t want to be the guy who defends sexual assault either, but can we also agree that 18 is a rather arbitrary age to choose as the legal “age of consent”? If the woman said it was 100% consensual and she doesn’t regret it, etc. does Bowie need some sort of scarlet letter attached to him for all of history?
Klaw: Fifteen is still a child in the view of most western societies. I know you’re not defending sexual assault, but age of consent laws are there to protect children.

Mike: Any strategy for identifying someone who seems like they don’t fit the mold e.g. Sale’s wild delivery, but still end up successful?
Klaw: Nope, not really. I think you’re guessing much of the time, and figuring the payoff of a successful bet is so big – as it was in Sale’s case – that it mitigates the risk. The White Sox have also handled him exceptionally carefully; I think 3x he’s had to be shut down very briefly for elbow soreness, but he’s never suffered a serious injury to any part of his arm, and the White Sox deserve credit for that too.

Bill: Give us a few guys who could be this years Matt Duffy? Basically a non prospect to a serviceable player his rookie year
Klaw: If I knew who the next Matt Duffy was … I guess I wouldn’t be able to get rich off it, He’s a great story but he took me by surprise as much as everyone else (including, I think, the Giants).

Bill: Does Mancini have enough bat speed to be a regular 1B? Are we looking at Matt Adams 2.0
Klaw: Don’t believe so.

J: Do you see Josh Bell or Clint Frazier ever being All-Stars? Which will have the better career?
Klaw: Bell could by hitting .320 some year even if the power never comes. Frazier still has more work to do to make an All-Star outcome realistic.

Leonard: Conforto has supposedly been working some in RF this offseason – any chance he can be ok there even just in spot starts?
Klaw: I think his range would be fine, but does he have the arm you want in RF?

Hank: If he were eligible, where would Vince Velasquez have ranked on your Phillies top 10? Do you view him as a starter or reliever?
Klaw: Starter. Biggest problem has been remaining healthy. He’s had a hard time getting through a full year without an injury. And I don’t like trying to re-rank guys who’ve lost eligibility because their major-league performance gives us far more information than we have on other prospects.

Bruce Bochy: Best chance to be a 1 or 2? Bickford, Beede, Suarez, or other?
Klaw: None of the above for me.

Brian: Keith, new CBA coming up. If you could pick three things for the MLB to change about amateur talent acquisition (foreign or domestic) what would they be?
Klaw: Aside from just killing the draft entirely? End free-agent compensation – signing a player should not cost you a draft pick. I’d blow up the whole international system, which has been a complete failure. And I’d enforce the rules on pre-July 2nd deals. Maitan getting “locked up” by Atlanta a year before he’s eligible is a joke, and ends up hurting the player. Look at Chris Torres, who claimed he was jilted by the Yankees when they had a seven-figure deal in place; if a team backs out of a pre-July 2nd agreement the player has no legal recourse. This is MLB’s problem to fix. Oh, also, a predraft medical combine is a must. No more Brady Aikens. It happened last june too – those players’ medicals just haven’t become public.

Eric Reining: Do you believe Josh Morgan has the talent and/or makeup to make this catching experiment work out in the long run?
Klaw: I honestly am not qualified to answer that question. But I love that they’re trying it.

Brett: Will Ke’Bryan ever develop enough power to be an impact/star 3B? He is a big guy and have heard he can put on a power display during BP
Klaw: I think he can be an impact guy just with the glove and hit tool, but there could be 15 HR there too. That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading, especially with all the content I put up in the last seven days, and for all of your questions.

Klawchat 2/11/16.

My top 100 prospects ranking is up for Insiders, as is my ranking of all 30 MLB farm systems.

Klaw: I understand a fury in your words … but not the words. Klawchat.

John: How does Jose Peraza hit 293/.316/.378 as a 21-year-old in AAA and drop from #24 in your rankings last year to off the list??
Klaw: So this seems like a good first question because I can start by clearing up a misconception or two. First, the 2015 list is not just (2014 ranking + 2015 performance). I start from scratch each year, and if that means correcting a mistake or two (or ten) from the previous year’s list, so be it. If I tried to use old lists as a basis for future ones, I’d just be perpetuating old errors. There’s value in being consistent, but too much so is just stubbornness. Second, nothing about this list is purely performance-based; the rankings are based in scouting, in physical tools and baseball skills, as much as they are in performance, probably more so. As for Peraza, a second baseman with no power and a .316 OBP is not someone who belongs on a top 100. The reports from the past year were worse than the year before, and now with two years gone from shortstop, the odds of him being able to return there seem quite slim.

Tommy Ballgame: Where does Brady Aiken start the year since he’s coming back from TJ? Mahoning Valley or Lake County?
Klaw: I’m assuming extended spring training.

Brian: Who were some of the Atlanta players that missed your top 100?
Klaw: Full reports on all 30 teams, including top tens, notes on other prospects (ranging from three to fifteen more per system), 2016 impact prospects, sleepers, and prospects who’ve slid, will all be up next week.

Ryan: What have you heard about Austin Riley and what does he have to do to be on the list next year? Was it just a sample size issue?
Klaw: Riley was not a first-round talent in June, with questions about his hit tool, especially his bat speed. He was just OK in the GCL, then had 30 great games in Danville. Why would he be a top 100 guy? It’s awfully quick – with no new favorable scouting information – to say he should have been a top 15 pick in the draft, which would be the implication of a top 100 ranking.

Josh Meyer: What do you make of Kohl Stewart’s lack of minor league strikeouts?
Klaw: Strong groundball guy, still learning to pitch and develop some of his offspeed stuff, especially the changeup. Don’t scout the stat line. His stuff is good and he’s only been doing the baseball thing full-time for three years now.

john: Surprised to not see Carson Fulmer on your list. Thoughts?
Klaw: Reliever. I don’t put anyone I expect to be a reliever (like Josh Hader) on the top 100.

Len: Where could Jason groome rank on this list next year? Comparable to Rodgers?
Klaw: Not comparable.

Paul: What do you attribute Sean Newcomb’s high walk rate to? Is it a simple mechanical tweak or something bigger?
Klaw: There’s nothing to tweak in his mechanics – his delivery is very easy, almost effortless, but I think the result is that he doesn’t truly repeat the arm swing pitch to pitch enough for real command (or control, in this case). You can’t really fix that. Changing a pitcher’s arm stroke is almost all downside.

Randy: Wow, definitely a bold ranking on Allard. Any concerns about his ability to handle the workload of an MLB starter with his frame?
Klaw: Obviously not or I wouldn’t have ranked him there. He’s not frail.

Nate: Can you elaborate on your Yusniel Diaz ranking and why he cracks the 100 without having played a single professional inning yet? What do you see for him in 2016, and what should his timeline to the majors be?
Klaw: Actually, he did play some professional innings in Cuba. If we’re ignoring guys who’ve never played in organized ball, then should Kolby Allard (all of six innings after signing) be off the list too?

Alan: You’re obviously high on Atlanta’s future with the team and overall prospect rankings. Do you have any concern about their lack of power bats? It seems to be the only thing this team is missing on paper for the future.
Klaw: No, because I think they will have enough pitching depth to trade for whatever they need. And Davidson’s still got more power than he’s shown to date – he’s pretty young and can flash that plus raw in BP.

Ed: Jon Gray (40 IP) meet service time to miss the list or he’s just fallen that far in a year?
Klaw: He’s gone backwards. Someone altered his delivery, so he’s lost a lot of power. His fastball is down, his slider went from a 70 to a 50, and he has zero deception. That’s why he got whacked around in the big leagues – hitters see the straight four-seamer and hit it. Back in college, he finished way more over his front side, got more tilt on the slider, was touching 99, and even had a better changeup. I don’t know what caused the alteration, but I saw it and so did every scout I asked about Gray for these reports.

Brendan: I noticed you have Kevin Newman at 23, and I haven’t seen him in a top 100 list anywhere else. I know you don’t look at any other lists when making your own, but just curious as to what stands out to you the most. Thanks!
Klaw: Well, you could ask those other folks why a true shortstop who’s a 65 runner, rarely strikes out, and has a strong history of hitting for average (at U of A and two summers on the Cape) isn’t a top 100 prospect. I think that’s a pretty valuable asset myself.

Bring DH to NL: Lack of position the main reason that Corneilus Randolph is not on the list?
Klaw: It’s a rather significant issue. It’s left field or bust for him.

Gene: Keith what gives with the trend in arm injuries with Oriole minor league pitcher related to the side of the rubber. Historicallym this was an issue with Arrieta when he was an Oriole and now it seems to be affecting Harvey and Bundy. I understand moving from one side to the other to produce a bit more deception, but if it is causing these guys to throw against their bodies, which produces injuries, why risk it? The Orioles also were opposed to Arrieta and Bundy throwing cutters, which led to control issues for Arrieta and injury for Bundy. Wouldn’t it be smarter to work on helping young pitcher further develop what they already do well instead of forcing them to throw only fastball/curveball/change up?
Klaw: You’re preaching to the choir here. The real problem is a one size fits all philosophy. Moving guys on the rubber because you think all RHP should be on the 3B side is a mistake in concept. Don’t move a guy who isn’t having trouble, and don’t try to make them all look the same.

Dave: Hector Olivera – where would he have slotted on this list (if at all) if you would have considered him? Thanks
Klaw: If we ignore that he’s older than dirt, he still wouldn’t have made it. I don’t think he’s a regular.

Ben in Boca: Hey Keith – I’m not usually a fan of “how could you” but wondering what your thought process is putting Steven Matz as low as you did (37). He’s already proven to be a viable (if injury-prone) major league talent, and probably an early candidate for NL ROY. As a Mets fan I was surprised to see a different Met (Dom Smith) ranked higher. What gives?
Klaw: As low as 37? Seems like a pretty good ranking to me, especially for a guy who has never thrown 150 innings in any regular season since signing in 2009. Great stuff, zero evidence of durability.

Josh Cookson: Your top 100 prospects include an organization’s best prospects, but is it fair to say the org rankings reflect the next tier (101-500 or so)? With the Brewers at 5 and the Astros at 17, I’m assuming you see much more impact and depth outside of the top tier guys in those two systems?
Klaw: The org rankings reflect everyone I’d call a prospect in each system. That ranges from 13 guys in the worst system (Angels) to probably 25 or so in the best systems.

Dan: Was Taillon’s omission simply that he hasn’t pitched in 2 years, or some deeper long-term health or performance issue?
Klaw: It’s that after two years off the mound, we don’t really know what his stuff will look like when he returns, or when he will be able to handle a regular workload. I like him quite a bit, but I have to be realistic that not many guys miss two years and come back to be durable starters.

JD Moss: No Carson Fulmer? And does MIchael Kopech have a chance to shoot up the lists this year with a solid showing?
Klaw: Kopech might have made the list if he hadn’t been suspended and had shown he could hold that stuff all year. He was off the charts in short stints in instructs. Definite candidate to be top 50 next offseason.

Danny FannyBannanny: No love for Cornelius Randolph?
Klaw: Can we drop the delusion that leaving a player off the top 100 is “no love?”

Doug Bersani: Do you survey other Top 100 prospects lists? And if so, was it crazy that MLB.com still has Hunter Renfroe in their Top 100?
Klaw: I’ve seen MLB’s because Jonathan Mayo and I talk a lot and we’ve been swapping stories about prospects for the last two weeks. I don’t think that’s crazy (nor would I sit here and tell you Jonathan’s crazy because he might see it and he is legitimately crazy and might come after me).

Woodman: How close is Clayton Blackburn to the majors? He’s got good control, averages nearly a K per inning. Was wondering why the Giants shelled out big dough for both Cueto and Samardzija when Blackburn looks nearly ready.
Klaw: He’s ready, but he’s not close to Cueto’s quality or Samardzija’s potential. Blackburn’s a really good fifth starter candidate, but it’s great command of very average stuff.

Jose R: Robert Stephenson is called the “The Lighthouse”? No he’s not. You made that nickname up.
Klaw: Of course I did. And my hat is off to anyone who gets the reference.

Chris A: Which Dodger prospect outside of the 7 in your top 100 has the most potential to join the top 100 next year?
Klaw: Austin Barnes had a legitimate argument to be on the list this winter.

Sara: I don’t see Hunter Renfroe here, but your thoughts on him?
Klaw: Don’t think he’ll hit for enough average/OBP to be more than a fringy regular. Big tools except the tool that counts the most.

KLAW hates my team: You mentioned a few months ago that you thought Eddy Julio Martinez would be in the running for the top pick in this years draft, but he didn’t make the top 100. Is this mainly due to lack of certainly being that you haven’t seen him play in a game?
Klaw: Nobody’s seen him play – and his brief time in the CNS wasn’t great (plus I think it was two years ago). My gut on his upside was not enough to just stuff the guy into the top 100. Yes, it’s my list, but it’s grounded in way more than what my eyes see.

Ed: Would love to hear you elaborate on what Victor Robles offensive profile might look like if he develops?
Klaw: Big debate on whether he’s going to have power or not. Could easily be in top 20 next year. It’s not so much power as very hard contact, and sometimes that ends up being big power anyway (like mah boy Goldschmidt, who doesn’t even have much loft in his swing). I think we’re looking at .300ish with a solid OBP, 12-15 homers, lots of steals, good defense in center.

Ian: Is the Alex Reyes rank “jump” (from 77 to 8) the highest jump you’ve ever penned in one season?
Klaw: I’ve had guys go from off list to top ten before. It’s part of the fun – and yet another reason why I don’t look at my own older lists when doing this.

Matt (PGH): Harold Ramirez was on your 2015 Mid-Season Top 50. Why did he drop off your 2016 Top 100 Prospects List?
Klaw: Again, he did not “drop off.” He can really hit, but he’s LF only without much power, defense, or clear OBP beyond the batting average. Good prospect, limited ceiling.

Quinn: Is it crazy to say that Victor Robles scouts a lot like Aaron Hicks did a few years ago?
Klaw: I don’t think they’re very similar beyond speed and position.

John Uskglass: Is there a reason, at least that it seems to me, why pitching prospects are almost always listed as just throwing a Fastball, Curve/slider, or change? I look at way too much brooks baseball and damn near every pitcher in the majors throws two different types of fastball as well as two off speed pitches. Is this something they develop after they get up, or is it something they’ve always had but seldom used in minors?
Klaw: A lot of player development folks emphasize throwing one fastball type to develop command, then allow the reintroduction of the other later on, or they add a two-seamer because the pitcher is struggling to avoid contact with the four-seamer.

Shane: Just a fun guess, but how many seasons in his career will Gallo lead MLB in HR?
Klaw: Three.

Mike: Let’s get this out of the way. Why do you hate my team so much and why didn’t you rate the prospect that I think is great because he’s on my team and I heard he hit two home runs in one game even though I’ve never seen him and don’t know how to scout?
Klaw: Yeah, i’m already getting plenty of that along with complaints that you have to actually pay dollars to read my work.

Hogie: How close was Erick Fedde to making the list? Would it help if I told you he has bad ass long hair now?
Klaw: Not close. And … no.

Hugo Z: I’m all for tossing out Touki’s Asheville game, but his ERA is still over 4 without it.
Klaw: ERA is a terrible way to evaluate a pitching prospect, especially one that young and raw.

Danny: What do you think the ceiling for Brady Aiken is? What current player do you think he could most be compared to if he reaches his potential?
Klaw: Before we knew anything about his elbow, I thought he had ace ceiling. I’ll stay with that for now, since all we really know is that he had TJ and is healthy and throwing.

Brian White: Brewers took a HUGE jump. Fair to stay David Stearns has done an excellent job thus far?
Klaw: To be totally fair, Doug Melvin was at the helm for most of the improvements to the system, and Stearns has added to what was already in place.

Colin: Any hottakes on the GOP race?
Klaw: Just my gut – and I’m way out of my league here – but I think the GOP’s powers that be will rally behind Kasich at some point and try to push him over Trump to be the eventual candidate, based on “electability.” (Is that just the “pitchability” of political writing? God, I feel dirty.)

Mike: Why did you not rank Jon Gray, Carson Fullmer or Jameson Taillon in the top 100?
Klaw: When asking a question like this, give me reasons why I should have ranked those players where you want them. The obvious, if flippant, answer is that I thought the 100 players I did rank are better prospects.

Jeremy: What do you mean when you say a player has “great hands”? Is that just the ability to get the ball in the glove?
Klaw: The ability to catch a ball cleanly and make the transfer. Some guys just have hard hands and can’t receive (at any position) well.

Dan: In your Top 100 Prospects list from last January, you had Buxton as the #2 prospect in baseball; he’s again at #2 in your list today. But in your Top 50 Prospects update last July, he’s nowhere to be found. Was this just a simple oversight or was there a reason (skills concern, prospect eligibility, injury, etc.) for his omission?
Klaw: He was in the majors.

TC: I see you’re pretty high on Amed Rosario. Assuming he takes another leap with his bat this year, is it possible he’s the Mets starting SS in 2017?
Klaw: Possible if rather optimistic. This is a big year for him – he’s still more potential than production, although the tools are impressive.

Rick: I know this is purely hypothetical, but injuries aside, where would Matz probably rank just on talent alone? I’m assuming his injury history knocked him down a bit.
Klaw: Thing is, if he didn’t have this injury history, he would probably be entering his third or fourth year in the big leagues.

Justin: Is there anything in particular that makes you think Wilson Contreras’s performance last season was predictive progress rather than an aberration?
Klaw: Tools are there. Great swing. Very athletic kid. Can even run a little. Throws well. Receiving is not great. But definitely performance supported by the scouting report.

Rob Manfred: Why do you hate all of our 30 teams? Jeez!
Klaw: yeah but I like you more than the other guy who was before you.

Eric: Let me get this straight – the Orioles have one of the worst farm systems and they’re considering giving up their first two picks in this draft so they can sign Gallardo and Fowler? Have they just given up on planning for the future?
Klaw: Signing Gallardo makes no sense. He’s just not that good any more, certainly not enough to give up a first-round pick and pay him. He doesn’t make them a playoff team. Both guys still probably don’t make them a playoff team.

Dave: There are 10 shortstops in the top 25, and a bunch of other top shortstops “graduated” from the list last year. Is that position just that valuable, is it going through a renaissance, or will a lot of these guys be moved off the position eventually (like we know Seager will)?
Klaw: The best players tend to start out as shortstops, and shortstops who can actually play the position and also project to hit have the highest ceilings because of how low replacement level is there. The same would be true of catchers, but there isn’t much catching talent in the mid- to high minors yet.

Matt: Just had an interesting office convo regarding this chat that we need you to settle – Should this chat be pronounced “Clawchat” or “Kay-Law chat”?
Klaw: My nickname has been “Klaw” (like “claw”) for about 25 years now. So it’s two syllables, Klawchat.

thedirkatron: The Rangers have 5 guys in your top 100 — including two in the top 12 — plus a deep group of intriguing guys after that, but are “only” 9th, behind teams like Milwaukee and Pittsburgh whose systems don’t appear as strong. Was there anything in particular that led you to slot Texas closer to 10 than 5?
Klaw: As I said earlier, the org rankings are not merely a reflection of who’s on the top 100, but the depth throughout each team’s system. Texas has thinned out after trades and promotions, while Milwaukee has restocked and Pittsburgh just stays loaded.

Alex: Has Gary Sanchez greatly improved his prospect status over the past year? Seems like he’s made some real strides in terms of maturity, defense, and even hitting.
Klaw: Yes. Seems like he finally grasped that he had to work on his defense and had to earn promotions, rather than having things handed to him because he was the golden boy who got the big bonus. It’s actually a really great thing to see, and to hear from Yankees’ personnel. I’m sure they’re relieved too, given what they paid him.

Jack: Any idea where Lazarito might rank on this list if he were a “prospect?” Maybe not high at all due to age/maybe you just haven’t seen him yourself?
Klaw: I don’t have any 16-year-olds on this list right now, and Lazarito is not the kind of elite prospect who would defy that rule of thumb.

MS: Thoughts on taking hallucinagtic drugs to treat anxiety and depression?
Klaw: Are you channeling Cary Grant?

Justin: Klaw – Awesome job as always on the Top 100. Maybe there’s hope with Dom Smith’s physique since he’s doing the offseason training regiment with other Mets? Although…he did do it last year from the sound of it.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

BravePap: Ever thought about helping out MLBTR? They’re my favorite, but they could use someone like you.
Klaw: I sort of have this other job already…

Adam: Robert stephenson didnt make your list. Only a few catcher did though, would he be next catcher on the list or further down?
Klaw: Do you mean Tyler Stephenson? He is on the “ten who just missed” column, which I think goes up tomorrow.

Tony: Does it appear that Tapia’s stance is here to stay? If it ‘normalizes’, what kind of power might be in there?
Klaw: I wouldn’t touch him until and unless he has problems hitting.

Adam: How close was Duane Underwood to making the top 100? Thanks for all your hard work!
Klaw: Not close at all.

Rodney: Would Maitan have made the list if eligible, and if so, in what range?
Klaw: He might be elite, unlike Lazarito, but no, absolutely not.

BD in DC: No Reynaldo Lopez because you think he is a reliever?
Klaw: Yes. I see very little chance he can stay a starter with that delivery and iffy command.

Bob: The angst over where a person’s favorite team is ranked is so silly. In theory, every team could have a good system and the gap between #1 and #30 isn’t that great. What people need to pay more attention to are the comments about the system and how it got to this point. Yeah, I know, there’s no place for reason on the internet.
Klaw: This is why I don’t put numerical grades on players – some people would focus on those and ignore the words that actually tell the story of the player.

Justin: In re: to the top farm systems, The Mets and KC fell the most from 15′ to 16′. Is this a product of making the WS? All the more amazing and scary how good the Cubs are/will be.
Klaw: It’s a product of promoting and trading talent to get to the World Series. The Royals promoted a slew of prospects the last few years, then traded three prospects for Cueto and one for Manaea. They also had their top prospect, Raul Mondesi, Jr., suffer through a miserable year of injury and non-performance (at a level where he was really young). The Mets promoted Thor and Conforto, traded two top ten arms for Clippard and Cespedes, and didn’t have a first-round pick. I’m not saying these were bad decisions, just that those are reasons why the systems slid in my rankings.

Always someone: You didn’t include a prospect I like in your top 100. Does that mean you think he’s merely worthless as a baseball player, or that he deserves to be drawn and quartered?
Klaw: I prefer to see such players broken on the wheel.

Rich, Baton Rouge: Keith, thank you for all you do for those with anxiety issues. My Question: Do you see PIT OF Ramirez, SS Tucker or 3B Hayes making a big leap in the rankings next year?
Klaw: Love Hayes. Not sure he’ll get a ton of affection from the industry because he’s not going to hit for much power, but a possible 70 defender at third who can hit and rarely strikes out … that’s a pretty good player, no?

Ed: Nice to Albert Almora back on the list. Would you say he’s progressed well since last year, or is it fair to say with all of the promotions in 2015 that the top 100 this year isn’t rated quite as high as last years?
Klaw: I think both are fair. Promotions really hit the minors hard, so this year’s list is skewed more towards players who are further away or a touch flawed. But he did make some modest progress at the plate, and he could always field.

Michael: Do you Arismendy Alcantara turning things around this year?
Klaw: I think he has the ability, but I honestly don’t know what the true reasons were behind his 2015 struggles.

Willy Adames: why do you think Mr Robertson is better than me? Defense?
Klaw: Better hitter/OBP guy and much more likely to stay in the middle infield. Now that’s a good question – nice and specific so I know what you want me to answer!

Eddy: Is there anyone you realized you were much higher on than others?
Klaw: I knew I was higher on Newman, because I had him 2nd in the draft class but he went 19th overall. Like I said above, his profile (hit, run, true SS) seems quite valuable to me.

Jaime: Saw a story that Matt Davidson changed his offseasoon workout to focus more on the mental side of the game. If he gets his head right, does he have the physical tools to bounce back?
Klaw: I’ve kind of written him off at this point, but we see former prospects revamp themselves all the time and resurface, often with club number two or three. JD Martinez comes to mind. He has been better with Detroit than he ever promised to be with Houston.

Anonymous: What do you see the Rockies rotation looking like in 2 or 3 years?
Klaw: Hesitating to put Butler in there because he has had so many health problems, but he’d be there on merit, along with Freeland, Hoffman, and some mix of Gray, Bettis, Senzatela, etc. Hard for them to fill a rotation without another big trade since they don’t believe FA starters will ever sign there. (Although I heard the schools are good.)

JP: does Dylan Bundy falling off mean you think he’s destined for the bullpen at this point?
Klaw: It means I have no confidence whatsoever in the health of his shoulder.

Patrick: Keith, several years ago the Royals were your top team. After lots of promotions and trades they’ve seemed to nearly exhaust their minors. They won a championship, but anything (not including FA signing) that you feel will haunt them??
Klaw: That flag will exorcise any ghosts who try to haunt them.

James: Good afternoon! Let’s say that an org recommends a pitcher change his delivery, mound position, etc. And let’s say the pitcher doth protest. Can a pitcher do himself damage within the org by resisting, even if he’s concerned about the impact of that change on his future health/ability/prospects?
Klaw: He’d be right to do so and I wish more pitchers would push back. I think this happened to Appel in Houston and he complied with their wishes, speeding up his delivery, ditching the two-seamer, going to the slide-step even though he can get long in the back so now his arm doesn’t catch up … and voila, results that don’t match the stuff.

DO: Your rankings and commentary show that you weren’t a big fan of the Kimbrell trade for the sox. Considering that A) they dealt from a position of prospect redundancy and B) had a system so strong that they could easily withstand the prospect loss, I’m make the case that the deal is not nearly as bad as some evaluators suggest. In a vacuum I would not want to trade two top 50 prospects for a 60 inning pitcher, but the state of the Sox system can almost justify it. Thoughts?
Klaw: I’m fine with trading prospects, but you have to get appropriate value in return, and they did not.

FinFinnFinnn: Can you highlight why Bobby Bradley is a better prospect than Cody Bellinger?
Klaw: Much more confidence in the hit tool. Bellinger did get to play in a great hitter’s league in a good hitting environment last year, and he did and will strike out a lot. Both good prospects though.

Lucas: Reese McGuire drew any consideration? Does his defense alone will get him in the majors?
Klaw: Don’t think he’ll hit enough to be an everyday guy but he is a no-doubt big leaguer for me.

Dan: Non-baseball question. You’re against keeping with the status quo on something ridiculous for the argument of “it’s always been that way.” How do you feel about February? Why do we still have a month that is multiple days shorter than the other months?
Klaw: If you want to make an argument like this, it’s time to switch to the damn metric system already.

Bill (NY): Is it insane to think Dansby’s best case scenario kinda sounds like Jeter?
Klaw: No, and if you got that from my capsule, it wasn’t entirely accidental.

Jason: Hi Keith. Have you seen Tigers OF Michael Gerber? Regardless, do you think he can be a big league regular?
Klaw: Yep, in fall league. Nice player. Maybe a good player. Probably falls a bit short of regular status.

Jay: KLaw, Where would Roman Quinn had fallen had he not been injured? Do you think he has upside still or to much of an injury risk?
Klaw: Call me when he has a full, healthy season. Forgive me if I’m not waiting by the phone.

Ron: Hi Keith- Any info on Wander Javier that the Twins signed?
Klaw: Is he one of the seven Wanders?

Nick: Does Wuilmer Becerra have the type of potential to be on this list a year from now?
Klaw: Absolutely.

Steve: Hey Keith, thanks for the top 100. It’s one of maybe seven reasons why I keep my Insider subscription. I have a general question about how much you factor in when you see a player into your rankings. If you see a guy on an off day do you think that one time image of him could cloud your overall perspective? Same goes if you see a guy and he’s 4/4 with a bunch of frozen ropes. How do you couch what you see on one occasion with what a player does over the course of a season?
Klaw: That’s the nature of scouting. You have to always remember what you saw is one snapshot among many. Since I don’t sit on a player for three or four days, I talk to scouts and execs all year long to get more information.

Michael: Wouldn’t the chance that Severino succeeds (however large or small that may be) give you more reason to consider pitchers you think are relievers? Even if there is a 75% chance a pitcher is a reliever, does the other 25% (with upside) make them top 100 material?
Klaw: There will always be exceptions. If I divide the universe of pitching prospects into guys I think will be starters and guys I think will be relievers, some of the former will end up relievers, and some of the latter will end up starters. But as long as those exceptions are relatively few, I will work with the same basic heuristics on putting pitchers into those buckets.

Dave: Arcia, Phillips, and Lopez are the top full season prospects for the Brewers. Is their next wave all at the Low A level or lower? Ray Montgomery did an amazing job for them on their 2015 draft.
Klaw: Yes he did. They have a bunch of other good full-season prospects, though, some of whom are on the top 100.

Brad: If you lose your first round draft pick, you also lose that amount of money to spend?
Klaw: Yeah, so it stings twice under the new system.

JP: move Ray or De La Rosa to the bullpen in May to make room for Shipley?
Klaw: Ray is a starter for me. Rubby is a two-pitch reliever.

Ryan: Isan Diaz get any consideration for the top 100? And does high level performances from Northeast high school prospects jump out more to you considering their limited ability to practice and play the game?
Klaw: I love what he did last summer but no, not really a top 100 guy yet.

RSF: What’s the thinking behind no relievers on the list? Too hard to project greatest out of someone that isn’t considered a potential starter? I would think a high end reliever provides enough value to justify inclusion.
Klaw: A high end reliever might provide that value, but identifying which guys might be those 3-4 relievers who can give you a couple of 2+ WAR seasons is a fool’s errand. The attrition rates are just too high.

Nate: Would any angels place in your hypothetical top 200 list?
Klaw: I love Jahmai Jones – he’s somewhere in the next 50.

Chris: Where are Brett Jackson and Matt Szczur? I thought you said the Cubs have a good system!
Klaw: I fear we’re going to do this all over again with Brett’s brother Drew, in the Mariners’ system.

JD: Would you say when you are in the 80s and 90s its hard to rank 91 over 90 with a lot of certainty (just as an example). Would it be easier to do it in pods of guys in the higher rankings, like these 3 guys are 100,99,98 in any particular order.
Klaw: No question. Towards the end, I’m just more focused on “does this guy belong” than “is this guy really better than the guy right behind him and really worse than the guy right above him” because that way lies madness.

Logan: In your top 100 you talk about Dom Smith being overweight, but he is listed at 185 pounds?
Klaw: Pro tip: Listed weights and heights may not be accurate.

aaron: Keith- How much of Gleyber Torres’ rating is tied to being a shortstop? As he probably won’t play there with the Cubs already with Russell, how would being at 2nd or 3rd affect his high slot?
Klaw: If he’s truly a shortstop, then that’s how I’ll rate him. Club context does not apply. Otherwise I might downgrade every Rockies’ starter because of what pitching in Denver does, but I treat their guys like I’d treat any other team’s starters.

Mike B: Can Rafael Devers stick at third base?
Klaw: I say so. He’s a good defender there now.

Chris: What is the difference between raw power and in game power and why do the two sometimes fail to correlate as closely as you would think?
Klaw: You have to hit before you can hit for power. And some guys can’t do both at the same time.

Zed: Do you think the Yankees are better served giving Gary Sanchez time at Triple-A to start the year, or backing up McCann and introducing him to the major league preparation of pitchers and catchers?
Klaw: Still needs to work on enough with receiving, framing, game-calling, etc. that he should play every day in AAA.

Forsyth: You seem a bit down on Moncada. I expected him to be a top 10 guy. Do you think there may have been a bit too much weight on the first couple months, when he was getting reacclimated to competitive baseball? Once he got settled in, he seemed to resemble the hype, meaning 20+ HR pop, excellent speed (SB-wise). Granted from my vantage point the best I can do is scout the box scores, but does he have a chance to bounce back into the top 10 if his 2nd half wasn’t a mirage?
Klaw: If you read the capsule, you can see my concerns, many of which revolve around his defense.

Nick: What type of power output are you hoping for from Dominic Smith now that he is out of poor hitter’s parks?
Klaw: I think he has 15-20 HR in him now, but it will also require a bit of a change in approach where he’s not going the other way quite so often. (I think all 5 of his FSL homers were to the opposite field.) I saw him pull a homer at Salt River, and saw him do it at least once as an amateur, so it’s in there, but he’s eschewed pulling the ball because he’s played in two parks that were bad for LH pull power.

Peter: Sounds like you expect Alex Bregman to be ready to hit in the majors pretty soon. How would you arrange Houston’s infield after his promotion? The most obvious opening would be third, but your writeup described Bregman as more of a 2B-type.
Klaw: He doesn’t have the arm for third. I wonder if he’ll end up trade bait because they are so well set at short at 2b. He’s not far off at all – if Schwarber and Conforto can go from college to the majors in 12-13 months, Bregman certainly can.

Brian: When you scouted Sano, did you ever think the OF was a possibility?
Klaw: I think I brought up his defensive, uh, inadequacies when I saw him in Beloit a few years back. That same game, he hit a fucking laser over the batter’s eye, so I get too worked up about the glove.

KJ: Do you see Alex Blandino as a starter or a utility guy ultimately?
Klaw: Starter, but at 2b, not shortstop.

Eric: Dilson Herrera barely missed the AB cutoff to be rookie eligible so he’s obviously not on the list. Not asking for a specific number, but what bucket would you put him in on the top 100 (if he’d still be there at all). Thanks again, you’re why I’m an insider.
Klaw: Back 20 or so. Always liked him. Got squeezed out last year when the minors were kind of stuffed. My vocabulary appears to be getting worse as this chat goes on.

Matt: He’s obviously not a prospect, but I’d be curious to get your take on what sort of impact Yulieski Gurriel could still have in MLB. He was a potential superstar once upon a time, but now he’s unlikely to see the field until after his 32nd birthday.
Klaw: Last time I saw him (last summer?) he looked awful. Out of shape, everything slow, unrecognizable. Then I hear he looked incredible in the Caribbean World Series. So I have no idea.

Zorak: I saw you got n to it on twitter with a Mets fan about Fulmer and the Cespedes deal. First off, sorry in advance for how obnoxious my fellow Mets fans will be for the next 10 months, and second, more in abstract, does the fact that Cespedes re-signed with the Mets change the value of the deal? or is that static? Does acquiring a player and extending him make it worth paying a higher price to get him?
Klaw: The extension is separate. The Mets paid full market value for Cespedes’ services in 2016 and potentially beyond. So they gave up Fulmer for two months of Cespedes. If you’re happy with that, because they reached the WS, great. I don’t think it was great value, but it’s not as lopsided as Meisner for Clippard was.

Emily: How do you go about making the list? Do you have names on flashcards and lay them all out? How do you insure that you don’t miss anybody?
Klaw: I keep a spreadsheet with top tens, then separate notes files for each of the 30 teams where I list anyone I can think of plus anyone else the team sources i talk to bring up.

Will: Why was Jacob deGrom never on anyone’s radar?
Klaw: I’ve told the story before, but he made my Mets top 10 one year and I had Mets fans calling me an idiot or whatnot because of that. (I think they wanted Hansel Robles over him, maybe?) Then the next year he was just kind of OK, not bad certainly, but scouts were on the fence about him starting or relieving. I remember watching his major-league debut and thinking “what the holy hell is that?” because no one, not even Mets people, described THAT to me.

Zach: What has happened to Colin Moran to make him fall out of the top 100?
Klaw: Not great defensive 3b who has not hit for power. Tough profile.

Ridley Kemp: Do you think Jacob Nottingham will be able to remain behind the plate and, if not, do you think he’ll hit enough to keep a job at another position?
Klaw: I do, at least, I’d leave him there for a couple more years to see how he develops. Guy’s a bulldog and certainly athletic enough to handle it.

UGW: Mike Shawaryn a 1st round pick for you? Whats his MLB ceiling?
Klaw: Not a first rounder, although I’m going to try to see him in the spring (try, because their schedule is a joke). Tough arm action for a starter.

Ryan: What do you make of Bubba Starling at this point?
Klaw: Probably an extra OF ceiling.

Brian: What do you consider your weaknesses in scouting (e.g. overestimating or underestimating a certain skill set)?
Klaw: I definitely struggle with catcher defense and command or finesse pitchers.

Steve: How do you see Ian Happ progressing? I’ve read concerns about his bat missing a lot last season. Any concern there? Is he destined for the OF or can he handle 2B duties at the MLB level?
Klaw: Second base for me. Bat missing meaning a lot of swing and miss? He’s definitely a high walk/high strikeout guy but I don’t think he’s a guy who struggles with contact so much as a guy who likes to work the count a lot and isn’t afraid of striking out.

Scott: You are really low on Jose De Leon. Can you elaborate as to why this is? He is among the highest risers on most lists. Thanks for all the great work!
Klaw: He’s on the top 100. That’s low? He’s got a fairly limited ceiling compared to the guys above him, but has great makeup and intelligence that should carry him through some needed adjustments. It’s a pretty true fastball and he’ll have to work around that.

Jackie: So, are Seager and Buxton the frontrunners for the KLAW ROY Awards?
Klaw: Exactly. Hard to argue against either guy given skill sets and opportunities.

Larry: If AJ Reed’s floor is “.260 hitter with a slew of walks and 25-30 homers,” that strikes me as potentially deserving a higher ranking than one right around #50, no? Is that his floor? What’s his ceiling?
Klaw: For a mediocre defensive 1b, that’s about right. If he could play another position or even played first like Dom Smith, then he’d be higher.

Garth M.: Was junior Fernandez close to making the cut?
Klaw: Yes. He’s on the just missed list. I think. I may have written too much and now I don’t remember what I filed last week.

kent: So not to make this a Dom Smith chat, but if he has the power tool, why did he go the other way? I mean isn’t the tool more important than results or catering to stats?
Klaw: Prospects tend to be judged and promoted on stats, not tools. Hitting a bunch of flyouts to the right field warning track does not get you called up to double-A.

SAge: How’s the food in Beloit?
Klaw: The Culver’s is excellent. I recommend a butterburger and a concrete.

Ben: Are you not doing Periscope chats anymore from now on? We really liked them, you know.
Klaw: I got horribly sick in mid-January, and have been working around the clock since then on these rankings.

Ciscoskid: Would doing a completely separate ranking for high probability relievers have any value?
Klaw: I will do a ranking by position piece next week and will include a handful of relief prospects.

Bob: Your writing specialty (at least the money-making part) is about prospects which means you have to approach your job just like a scout for a major league club. Does it feel at all weird that your work doesn’t go into anyone’s draft analysis but is disseminated to us yahoos instead?
Klaw: Actually most of you yahoos are wonderful to talk to and deal with, online and in person. The handful of trolls I get can’t undermine that at all. I view what I do for readers as a privilege, and I’m honored that you choose to pay to read my work and to give your time to read it and come interact with me. So thank you all for your loyal readership. It does help me power through these team reports (just ten left to write!) as I’m trying not to fall asleep at the kitchen table. I’ll be back for another chat next week!