Klawchat, 7/1/16.

Our July 2nd international free agent preview piece is now up for Insiders.

Sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: My features form with a change in the weather. Klawchat.

Nolan LeMond: With quality arms at every level of the minors, the emergence of Mike Soroka and others, and three more high-upside arms added in the first 2 rounds of the draft, do the Braves currently have the best collection of arms you’ve ever seen in one organization at one time?
Klaw: No, I think we’ve seen other teams do this before, like Kansas City a few years ago. The attrition rate is going to be high, unfortunately, unless they’ve figured out something we haven’t about arm health. But I think overall they’ve got the right idea and have a chance to be an absolute powerhouse MLB team in about 3 years if they deploy these assets the right way.

Brad: Atlanta blowing way over its budget has been expected for a while for July 2, but it seems like the Padres are going to get the better haul. Is the group Atlanta is expected to sign the second best?
Klaw: Atlanta is getting the best overall prospect in Maitan, but I don’t think their group beyond him is any better than those of other teams going all in this weekend, other than San Diego, who appear willing to give $400,000 to any random kid walking down the street in Santo Domingo.

Greg: You’ve been pretty clear that Boston shouldn’t trade Moncada or Benintendi in a deal for Teheran. If that’s the case, am I wrong for thinking there isn’t a match between the two teams? Sure seems like Coppy wants bats in the upper levels of the minors.
Klaw: I would agree, at least in that Teheran’s value is probably more than the Red Sox could provide if they won’t trade any of the big 3 prospect bats.

Nick: Have you seen/when are you planning to see some of the 2017 prep guys? Seems like a lot of good ones so far: Brady McConnell, Jordon Adell, Hunter Greene, etc.
Klaw: Saw Adell last summer, will see others later this summer. Greene has definitely jumped out early.

JV (Cleveland): Any early reports on Triston McKenzie, Brady Aiken or Juan Hillman as their pro careers get underway?
Klaw: Yep. All good. Hillman especially good early. Aiken’s healthy with good velocity so far.

Samwise: How bad is Candelario’s glove on 20-80? I’ve seen you say it’s abysmal while others have said average or even slightly above?
Klaw: Unplayable at third base. No idea why anyone’s called it average or slightly above. I’ve seen him a ton over the years.

Tom: Is Baltimore for real? Can the Orioles win the AL East?
Klaw: Of course they can – in fact I’d say they’re the odds-on favorites by virtue of the standings today. For real is another question; I killed them preseason because their rotation looked terrible, and it has been terrible. They have a starters’ ERA of 4.95, fourth-worst in the AL, and have basically one and a half non-replacement-level starters in their rotation. They could ignore the problem and maybe still win the division, but it’s not a great formula for now or for October.

Joe D: Keith, is Dovydas Neverauskas any kind of RP prospect or just a good marketing ploy by MLB to add him to the futures game? Also, is Europe the next untapped market for MLB?
Klaw: I wrote about him in the preview – he’s a good relief prospect, but of course he’s there because he’s Lithuanian, and I think MLB should always try to include as many countries as possible in the Futures Game. Maybe his inning ends up on Lithuanian TV and a bunch of kids see it and want to pick up a baseball.

Samwise: Could Eloy Jiminez be a GUY?
Klaw: Absolutely.

Anonymous: Thamas Szapucki and Andrew Church have both had very good starts to their seasons (Szapucki with 19 k’s and 9 baserunners in 10.2 innings). Should Mets fans be getting excited about these guys. Are they legit?
Klaw: Szapucki’s been legit, plus FB plus CB so far, throwing strikes. Didn’t offer much projection in the draft but the tradeoff is that it’s now stuff. Church I liked in the past but has no history of health, and now that I look he’s not even pitching that well.

Andy: For me, the biggest issue with all the Mets Rights Asshats, Jose Reyes hit 274/310/378 last year while playing in Toronto and Colorado. This is the guy you want to ignore ethics for and put at 3B? We’re not talking forgetting about in-prime Miguel Cabrera drunk driving. So they’re taking the public relations hit, looking insensitive, and putting someone with zero ML innings at 3b, all because they don’t want to throw some cash for Matt Dominguez, Will Middlebrooks, or someone similar.
Klaw: I chose not to discuss the baseball merits of the move at all in my piece on the signing because I thought it would diminish the core issue of whether teams should take a stance on players who’ve committed an act of domestic violence (in this case, a very serious one). It doesn’t seem to me like a sliding scale, where we’ll accept more violence if the player’s better. For me, at least, I would simply say no, this is not who we are as an organization, regardless of what he can do for our team – and if my bosses said, sign him anyway, that’s when I’d walk away from the job.

Jeremy: What were your thoughts on the Giants allowing Madison Bumgarner to bat instead of using a DH? My general thought was that even if he was a better hitter than the alternative (doubtful) the risks associated with him batting as far as injury, tiring him out unnecessarily, etc, were unnecessary and foolish.
Klaw: I think Bochy probably looked at the lack of any RHB on his bench other than Trevor Brown and figured Bumgarner (a RHB) was a better option anyway than the LHB available. I don’t agree with this at all – Bumgarner, for all the HR he hits, has a .226 career OBP and doesn’t exactly hit any kind of pitcher well, so it’s not even helping the team. Then you get into the injury issues you raised and, well, maybe they should address the bench.

Anonymous: No question. Just wanted to say I really enjoyed being in Omaha for the CWS but OMG THE BUNTING MAKE IT STOP
Klaw: The series ended yesterday and the Chanticleers are still throwing over to first base.

Andy: Can I read anything in to Austin Hedges start? What kind of power potential do you see for him?
Klaw: Repeating AAA in a crazy hitter’s environment. That said, I do think he has 20-25 HR power if he can hit enough to get to it.

Nick: Ever been to Au Cheval in Chicago? Does a better burger exist?
Klaw: Is it just me or is that a bad name for a burger place?

Craig: What is the earliest age that most teams will start to track/scout players? 14? 15?
Klaw: International guys like Maitan, 14. Draft players, summer after junior year of HS, usually.

Alan: You’ve caused quite a stir with Atlanta fans by talking about the Nationals still pushing for Maitan. Is this something we should be worried about?
Klaw: A few months ago, maybe a year, the Nats made Maitan an offer that he (may have) accepted, after which Atlanta (reportedly) upper their offer and recaptured him. I heard the Nats were still trying to get Maitan to accept a $7 million offer – and there is actually nothing preventing any of these players from breaking an agreement with a team prior to the deadline because THESE DEALS ARE ALL ILLEGAL. The whole system is totally, royally fucked up.

Matt Neffer: Keith, in your opinion, should the Red Sox be penalized for their actions in the last international signing period or are they just doing what every other clubs does but on a larger scale?
Klaw: Most clubs do it. Boston got caught. I don’t think the penalty is that big of a deal, though, as they’re going to lose a handful of low-probability 16- and 17-year-old prospects, none of whom projected (yet) as average or better guys. Maybe it will end up hurting them, but this seems more like a message sent to other clubs not to pull the same maneuver … even though the system provides plenty of incentive for everyone to do this. See my previous answer.

Michael: Sorry if this is obvious, but could you explain what happens to a pitcher mechanically when he throws a breaking ball that doesn’t break (a hanging curveball or slider)? Is it a lack of concentration?
Klaw: Usually he either didn’t get enough spin on the ball from the rotation of his wrist or it slipped out of his hand earlier than he’d wanted it to. Better question for someone who actually pitched, though.

Michael: I was at an International League game the other day and saw scouts from a club with the NPB. Is that common? Have you ever seen Japanese scouts?
Klaw: All the time. Fall League too. Looking for tweeners and 4A guys who’ll go all Tuffy Rhodes over there.

Derek: Has recent performance (12+ Ks in 3 of 5 starts) given you a reason to update your prior on Reynaldo Lopez – your prior being that he’ll end up in the pen? Apart from whether he’s a starter going forward, putting him in the bullpen is the best way for the Nats to improve the 2016 pen, right? He may not be Chapman or Miller, but he may be close and he’s free.
Klaw: The bullpen opinion is about his delivery, not his stuff. I’d definitely look at him as a pen upgrade rather than trading for one of those guys.

Michael: I’m far from an economics expert and I go back and forth on a minimum wage and forced overtime pay. While I thought the bill introduced the other day was an abomination, isn’t low minor league pay an unfortunate, ugly consequence of free-market capitalism?
Klaw: The market for minor league players is not free, though. Movement is highly restricted by the draft and the reserve clause.

Derek: Bone spurs: are the Mets being reckless with Syndergaard and Matz?
Klaw: I think I said they were being reckless on Buster’s podcast yesterday, but if I did, then I apologize for a take that was way too hot. There’s so much that I don’t know here, from exactly what’s going on their elbows to what the probability is of further injury – I thought spurs and chips potentially led to damage to the UCLs, but perhaps that impression is out of date – to what these players, highly paid adults with agency, want to do. I shouldn’t have come on that strongly about the Mets’ plans here. I’m sorry.

Jose: How does Trey Griffey get drafted and Andrew Beckwith not get drafted?
Klaw: Griffey, you know the answer. Beckwith isn’t really a pro prospect of any sort.

Dave: Favorite Chvrches song? I’d lean towards Clearest Blue. Saw them with Death Cab for Cutie in Cleveland and they were incredible.
Klaw: Leave a Trace or We Sink.

Adam: Are you concerned about Manuel Margot’s low OPS relative to his playing environment or am I just scouting the box score?
Klaw: Your mistake is looking at OPS, which is a garbage stat. Margot is 21 in AAA with a .353 OBP. His slugging is low, dragging down his OPS, but he’s not a power hitter and will likely never be one. His game is defense, OBP, instincts, but not power.

Ryan: With half a season in the books, has your impression of Rhys Hoskins’ future changed at all? I know you have previously said he is one to watch, but I am not sure how much he should be considered a real prospect based on the history of power hitters at Reading. Thanks!
Klaw: He’s hit away from Reading, while Cozens did most of his damage at home. I’m more inclined to buy into Hoskins’ numbers, plus I have never been a fan of Cozens’ makeup whereas I am of Hoskins’.

Chuck Connors: With the expected arrival of Braves new international signings, I assume Braves remain #1 (by a wide margin) in your farm rankings. How do you compare the Braves long-term rebuild strategy to similar teams (i.e. Astros) at this point?
Klaw: Yes, they’d still be at the top. The Astros managed to grab more college guys in the draft and more near-in prospects in trades, though, so I think Atlanta’s rebuild may take longer. That’s good, because by the time their prospects are ready in 2019 or so, people trying to get to games at The Big Con in 2017 will have found parking.

Adam: You said Adrian Morejon could have been a Top 5 pick in this last draft. Would he immediately become a Top 3 prospect in the Padres system once he signs?
Klaw: Margot, Guerra, Quantrill, Morejon?

Jeff: Shortly after Austin Meadows was promoted to AAA you referred to him on Twitter as a “budding superstar”, is it safe to say he’ll likely be back in your next Top 25?
Klaw: All depends on who else is up and down before then. Next list is in two weeks. Remember he wasn’t healthy last time I did an update, so he was around #26-28.

Anonymous: Any plans on a Cape trip? Any names there you want to see or feel obligated to see?
Klaw: trying to figure out how to get there with other obligations this month (TV stuff) and family matters. Not sure yet.

Adam: Is Chris Paddack legit or just too polished for his competition?
Klaw: Legit. 90-95, plus CH, breaking ball will flash above average, average command now, comes right down at hitters. Great pickup for Padres.

@RationalMLBfan: While Dilson Herrera toils in AAA, the Mets have given playing time to Matt Reynolds, Ty Kelly, Eric Campbell, and Kelly Johnson, have signed Jose Reyes. Why?
Klaw: I don’t know, but I said earlier this year they seem to be down on Dilson for reasons no one seems to understand.

Andy NMB: Hey Keith, who decides on who makes the futures game? On the USA side just a few outfielders. Wondering why Judge although SSS is maybe one of the hottest hitters. I figured he’d be there. Also after signing 1st pick Rutherford, how is the yanks minor league rankings? New rankings coming soon? Thanks for all the hard work…insider, dish & newsletter. Your the best!!
Klaw: Remember that teams get to say no – for example, I believe the Pirates said no on Glasnow, either because they just didn’t want him to pitch (fearing injury) or because they were looking at calling him up before the game. I know MLB puts together wishlists and doesn’t get everyone they want.

Jim: So, Keith, although his June surge is logically unsustainable, is Danny Espinosa now entrenched at SS for 2016? And what does this mean for Trea Turner? Is the CF “experiment” real, or a blip? Thanks!
Klaw: Yep, I think that’s the rest of the season for them, including Turner in CF. He’s probably an 80 runner and has good instincts; I’d be very surprised if he couldn’t become an average defender there, and they could use his OBP skills at the top of the lineup.

EC: Thoughts on Giolito’s first game?
Klaw: Looked good, not his best. CB was ridiculous. FB command was not great, although I liked how he gathered himself after each of the walks to get back into the zone. Was hoping to see more CH, but he got some quick outs on pop-ups and you’ll take those every time. Promising, but in a way I’m glad he was done after four innings because I thought he was going to run into trouble the third time through the order.

EC: I work for a member of Congress and can tell you that Rep. Boustos revoking her support for the America’s Pastime bill is the quickest I’ve ever seen that happen. Her staff must have done an awful job researching for her.
Klaw: I have a feeling she supported it because her dad was a longtime MLB lobbyist and she didn’t look into the bill. Next we need to go after Rep. Guthrie; perhaps he has an opponent this year who supports basic labor rights?

Josh: Keith, as someone who briefly passed through your world (I did the DodgerDivorce thing), I just wanted to say I’m glad you are getting the opportunity to share your views on things like the Reyes signing. While I don’t always agree with you (although I do here), it is refreshing to see reasoned, thoughtful opinion featured and promoted by your monolith employer.
Klaw: Thank you. My editor actually encouraged me to write that piece after seeing me comment on the signing on BBTN on Saturday. I don’t think that would have happened a few years ago, so there are positive things happening in Bristol that you don’t hear about.

Bob: Are the recent reports on Dylan Cease in the NWL similar to the very positive reports from the spring?
Klaw: I heard secondhand that he hit 103 the other day, so, yeah.

Dan L.: Keith I understand not voting for Trump, but how could anyone vote for a person who used all her power and contacts to try and destroy or discredit all of her husbands victims of serial assault or rape? Seems they get a huge pass from people who are always up in arms about other people who do the same. I personally think they are all scum.
Klaw: You have three choices. One, Johnson, is a protest vote with no chance to win. I don’t agree with Trump on matters of science, gender, race, immigration, taxation, regulation, abortion, gun rights, foreign policy, freedom of worship, energy policy, entitlements … and more. So, unless you’re advocating that I abstain, I think my choice here is pretty straightforward.

Brian: I saw Ashe Russell pitched is first inning of the season the other night for the AZL Royals. Have you heard if he was dealing with an injury this season. I just found it curious that Nolan Watson started at Lexington all season but Russell was left back. Thanks.
Klaw: He was 87-91 in extended.

JT: After a slow start, Tyler Beede has had a really strong June in AA, calling out an improved feel for his change up. Do you think he can keep momentum going and be an solid #3? Maybe a #2?
Klaw: More like a #4-5. Doubt he’ll ever have average command.

Jon: Bo Bichette had unbelievable high school stats and in an extreme SSS he has continued those numbers (obp over 500). Any chance he hits his way to A or High A?
Klaw: It’s 19 AB in pro ball … and this year? He’s 18. If he gets to the NYP league that’s enough.

Ian: Why didn’t the Twins ever send Kepler to the Future’s game?
Klaw: He was on the roster two years ago and got hurt.

Angelo: What’s your favorite “cheap” meat to cook? I’ve been doing pork shoulder lately but need to mix it up while being on a budget.
Klaw: That’s probably my best suggestion too. You can often get less popular cuts of steak for less – flap meat, for example, or sometimes skirt steak.

Sean: Remember when all the experts were having to eat so much crow as the phillies ran away with the NL East. Those were some good times, can’t wait until next May for overreaction theater to happen again.
Klaw: What I really remember is fans asking me if the Phillies would add pieces before the trade deadline. Derp.

Larry: Any word on where Lazarito is leaning?
Klaw: No. I looked into it a little this week, just to see if I’d missed something, and no one had any idea. He’s turned down some decent offers though.

Elton: What did you see in Gregory Polanco to allow you to predict (correctly) that his power would improve?
Klaw: I believed in his swing and hand strength.

Rob: Any chance that Aristides Aquino becomes an impact player at the MLB level. Seems to be holding his own at AA this year but has struggled previous years.
Klaw: Great tools but he’s 22 in high-A (not AA) and I think that’s a big part of why he’s playing well. Would really like to see him get to AAA next summer so the Reds can see how much of this improvement is real, not just age.

addoeh: You seemed to thoroughly enjoy Omaha. What cities (MLB, MILB, College) have most exceeded your expectations from a culinary standpoint?
Klaw: Omaha, Nashville, Charleston, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Diego, Phoenix (cheating, since i lived there), OKC.

Tyler: Several times this year you’ve advocated for TEX to turn the page on Prince Fielder. At the same time, you are always cautious about SSS when a guy is going good. What is a large enough sample size to determine a player has gone bad and is done? Fielder, for example, was solid last year, so it seems like a decision to dump him is based only on this year.
Klaw: He wasn’t solid last year, though; he had a fluky first two months or so but his bat speed was visibly down and he was getting killed on hard stuff in. Sure enough, he was much worse in the second half as teams changed how they pitched him, and it’s gotten worse for him this year. His bat speed is gone. This is why I watch.

Pat: Keith – Bundy is starting to look good, man. Give me a dose of reality so I don’t get too excited
Klaw: He’s been cultivated so carefully this year that it’s creating unrealistic expectations. He’s still got calcification in his shoulder and his arm swing is so much more restricted than it used to be.

Anonymous: Hey Klaw, teacher here…I’m on summer break and can finally make your chats live! Is Verdugo for Vizcaino about right in terms of value?
Klaw: No, massive overpay for Dodgers.

mike: Help Klaw, yesterday my 2 year old was thrown out of “Dance” instead of taking my wife aside to tell them to leave the instructor did so in front of all the other moms and kids. Im pissed. In the meantime she tells my wife clingy kids never change and come back in 5 years. How can she do this
Klaw: did your 2-year-old start chanting “Jet Fuel Can’t Melt Steel Beams!” in the middle of “Baby Beluga?”

Harvey: Will Jason Groome really attend Jr College?
Klaw: This is the threat, but I think it’s a poor bluff. Next year’s draft class is much stronger in college pitching, and Groome will not likely be more valuable in that class than he was in this one. Also, the makeup concerns about him are not going to vanish with a year at junior college. The Red Sox can offer him about $4 million without giving up a pick next year and he’d be ill-advised to turn that down.

Jack Burton: Did Arcia just need a change of scenery?
Klaw: Yes – or more specifically he just needed to be left alone to play.

Harvey: Is E Rod tipping pitches just a cover for a bigger problem?
Klaw: My guess is that his knee is still bothering him. Can’t do much as a pitcher if you can’t plant your leg.

Robes: Alex Bregman, better than expected?
Klaw: No, just the power, which could easily be a half-season fluke. Everyone thought he’d hit, even in HS.

Jeff: I am a firm believer in not voting if a worthy candidate is not on the ballot. People tell me, “you can’t complain if you don’t vote” – the hell I can’t. Record-low voter turnout would be a wonderful statement to make, IMO.
Klaw: It’s also how you get extremist candidates elected.

Rob: Do you think Lucas Giolito should continue to start once strasburg returns from the DL?
Klaw: In whose stead? He might be a better option than Gio Gonzalez, but I wouldn’t guarantee that, and they’re not demoting Gio to the bullpen anyway so that’s a stupid idea, Klaw.

Dale: Can you define what you mean by “makeup” when describing a prospect? Is it like “character”? Pedigree? Bloodlines? Thanks
Klaw: Pedigree and bloodlines are irrelevant. I’m talking about the type of person a player is, particularly the stuff that matters – work ethic, aptitude, communication skills, willingness to learn.

MichaelT: Re: Reyes and Chapman, is it fair to say your position is that once a player is accused and punished for DV that no team should ever employ him, or that he needs to do something else (not sure what that is) before he can return to the field? I believe that’s the part of the question that throws some fans.
Klaw: What throws me is fans caring about that question rather than saying, oh, hey, he beat his wife, so fuck that guy.

JG: Should Buxton just be left to play?
Klaw: Yes. And perhaps there’s an issue with the Twins’ coaching staff and young hitters? I’m speculating here.

TedT: Has Trey Ball pitched well enough this year to justify his high draft pick and does he project as a major league starter? Reliever?
Klaw: Stuff hasn’t really ticked up. So projectable but it’s never come to pass as expected.

Ed: You’re talking about Atlanta maybe being a powerhouse if they handle their assets correctly. Are you referring to trades for bats?
Klaw: Some of that, yes. Pick the ones to keep, flip some for bats.

Trey: I believe the gentleman was suggesting you abstain from voting. They’re all terrible, I won’t vote so I can openly criticize them all. 2017-2021 is going to be awfully interesting with either Clinton or Trump at the helm.
Klaw: I can vote for someone, because I think her opponent is dangerous, and criticize her at the same time. People who are saying they’re abstaining this year despite their disdain for Trump seem a bit disingenous to me; there must be some level at which you’d vote for a candidate you disliked simply to try to defeat a candidate who scares the hell out of you.

Luke: You’ve guided me correctly with Ticket to Ride, Carcassonne and Splendor, what should the next game be for my family with a 7-year old son?
Klaw: You’ve hit the big three for sure. It’s a bit less common but Cacao is a tile-laying game like Carcassonne with simpler scoring and shorter playing times.

addoeh: The folly of the electoral college. Some people, like me, can make a protest vote and it won’t impact the election because they live in an uncompetitive state. If you live in a battleground state, that may not be possible.
Klaw: I’ve actually never voted in a Presidential election while living in a state where my vote might have mattered. Delaware, my current state, hasn’t gone Republican since 1988. Massachusetts, where I voted in five elections, hasn’t since 1984. Arizona, where I voted in 2012, has gone Democrat once (1996) since 1948. So this is all so much talk.

Sedale: Obviously you were as high as anyone on C. Seager, but has his production thus far even surprised you? He’s on pace for a 30 HR/.800+OPS season as a rookie short stop and has been the Dodgers best bat by far.
Klaw: I wasn’t this high on him in the draft – not until he got to pro ball and I saw how advanced the approach was for his age. He also made a really rapid adjustment when the Dodgers saw he was starting to develop a soft front side in high-A; I think players who make adjustments that rapidly are showing you they’re going to be the exceptions going forward too.

Ian: I think you overstate the power Trump would have. He’s an idiot and couldn’t do many of the things he has suggested. But Clinton’s rhetoric on national security should be getting a lot more attention from progressives. This might be a line in the sand moment. Do we want internet privacy to go away? Do we want drones spying on US citizens (or killing them)? Do we want the govt to fight harder against FOIA? I laugh at Trump and his brand of ignorance but Clinton’s more frightening, IMHO.
Klaw: Presenting this for a little balance, since I didn’t address any of what I dislike about HRC’s policies. You nailed some of them; in general, I do not agree with the Democratic Party’s stances on many issues, including many questions of food policy. (Keep the Republicans out of my bedroom and the Democrats out of my kitchen.) On drones, though, isn’t Trump proposing to use them to monitor the border with Mexico? And to step up airstrikes in the Middle East? I’m basically anti-drone, period, but at this point that’s about as politically tenable a position as reinstating the Volstead Act.

James: reyes – I read your article and understand your feelings on those who hit their wives/family members but if reyes would have taken the year off, gotten counseling (not the lip service kind), got a mentor, would you have supported him coming back or is it a zero tolerance policy? Also, how does your opinion change of some hitting their wife vs. someone who beats up a stranger? I am not trying to corner you, just trying to understand a little more.
Klaw: Domestic violence is not equivalent to beating up a stranger. Domestic abuse is an exercise of power and intimidation. I have never said Reyes should be banned; I have said I would not sign him if I were a GM, and I will criticize a GM who does.

Chris: I’m curious about your opinion on redemption for DV and sexual assault perpetrators. Can there be reform for these individuals? Redemption? To be clear, I don’t mean redemption through athletic performance, but perhaps through therapy, and committing oneself to preventing others from committing DV or sexual assault.
Klaw: I don’t think sexual assaulters can be reformed.

Scott: Is the power Marcus Semien showing real? Because with his improvement in defense, oakland might have themselves a player worth keeping.
Klaw: I don’t think he’s a 30 HR guy going forward – if he is, then hell yeah they have something worth keeping – but between the swing changes, the athleticism, and the hints of power he showed in the minors I could see him now being a 20+ HR guy. He’s definitely an asset now.

Munchkin: Besides Amed Rosario, is there any other exciting high ceiling Mets prospect? It seems Dom, Nimmo, etc have mostly been meh and haven’t developed much.
Klaw: Nimmo I agree. Smith is still just 21 in AA, too soon for you to give up on him. I liked Lindsay from last year’s draft quite a bit. Also think they did pretty well with Dunn this year, another very high-ceiling kid, and I mentioned Szapucki earlier as a dude to watch.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Coppy publicly admitting the Olivera deal was a bad one?
Klaw: He’s right, of course, and I applaud him for saying it. It wasn’t just a bad trade, though; it was a bad evaluation of the player, and ultimately, it’s on the evaluators who said Olivera was something more than he actually was as a player to bear responsibility for a bad deal.

Todd: I’m actually very interested in your answer to MichaelT’s question. And I don’t want my curiosity to sound like a judgment of you; I’m trying to figure out how I feel about the subject and why. On one hand, YES, fuck that guy. On the other hand I am wary of the misanthropic implications of essentially blackballing someone (and I have a hard time separating what he did from the professional suspension he already received). While I fully understand the dangerous psychology behind his criminal behavior, I also believe it costs me when I don’t allow other human beings the space to change. In short, I have a theoretical basis for giving Reyes a chance to grow and learn, while I have an emotional basis for wanting him to piss off and die. Maybe if we didn’t have centuries of oppression, marginalization and abuse of women it would be easier to decide what punishment an abuser should get in each realm of his life.
Klaw: Reyes can get on with his life; I just don’t need to see him do it on a major league baseball field. Playing this sport for salaries of six, seven, or eight figures is not a right, but a privilege. You can lose it, and beating up a woman or raping someone is a fairly good reason to lose it. (A better reason, I’d argue, than failing three steroid tests.) He can go find something else to do with his life.

Sean: I think it’s a bit disingenuous to say that every team does what Boston is being punished for doing. The majority of teams have never exceeded their pools, so they could never have been in a position to need to circumvent the restrictions. It’s the attempt to circumvent the punishment that is their “crime.”
Klaw: Most teams arrange deals prior to July 2nd with agents, which in and of itself is illegal. The whole system is screwed up. I’m saying what Boston did is not unique and at worst marginally worse than all these teams cooking up deals before negotiations are even permitted.

Taylor: Has Ronald Guzman turned the corner?
Klaw: Don’t know; he hasn’t sustained the hot start, and doesn’t have much track record of success, but since he won’t turn 22 until October I’m not going to say anything too harsh here. Merely doing what he’s done in total in AA this year is a positive step.

Tony H: Can a player improve makeup? I’m thinking of someone like Carlos Carrasco who some evaluators — including yourself IIRC — dinged for having makeup problems years ago. Did he just become a better person or is his talent just overwhelming his personal flaws.
Klaw: He was immature and grew up. That happens a lot. (And yes, I dinged him AND Gio Gonzalez for it.) Some issues are bigger; some are issues in certain teams’ eyes and not in others (e.g., marijuana use). The ones that bother me the most are players who don’t or won’t work hard, and players who refuse to work with multiple coaches. It’s a hard game when you won’t even listen to help.

Arin, Ca: What happened to Conforto? Did the Mets miss use him?
Klaw: Aside from the wrist issue, benching him vs LHP really seemed to screw up his mechanics at the plate, so he was pulling off the ball more vs RHP and his whole approach went pear-shaped. I really think Collins is the Mets’ #1 problem right now. If he won’t play young players, they need another manager.

Cam: Is Daniel Norris the answer for the Tigers going forward? Is he fully healthy
Klaw: I don’t know about his health but I’d be very happy moving forward with a rotation that has him and Fulmer at the top of it.

Steve: When are you doing your “Best Under 25” column?
Klaw: Next week, probably.

Doug: Was there any thought by you to head up to MSG for the only NA show for Stone Roses last night? Admittedly, pure bucket list in nature for me, but am so glad I made the trek, as they were 10x better than my expectations
Klaw: Had I liked the two new singles more, perhaps. But I haven’t loved them … and by the way, I’ll have a new music post and playlist up in a little bit.

Klaw: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week, likely Thursday, for another chat.

Klawchat, 6/16/16.

Questions go in the frame below, NOT in the comments. My draft recaps for all 30 teams are up for Insiders, one file for AL teams’ drafts and another for NL teams’ drafts.

Sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: In this journey, you’re the journal, I’m the journalist. Klawchat.

Joel: Re Nimmo: Is it that you’ve heard that nothing much has changed or that simply put, it’s basically impossible to tell if prospects doing well in Vegas and the PCL are for real (sorta a reverse Savannah problem)? Either way, Nimmo had struggled for a while so it’s certainly nice to talk about him tearing the absolute cover off the ball, regardless of where it is happening…..
Klaw: I’m hearing nothing’s really changed, but the latter point is probably the more important one here. Vegas, Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Reno are all such severe hitter’s parks – mostly due to altitude – that it skews the stat lines of lots of players and makes it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff by eyeballing the numbers.

Cedric: I know you’ve always been high on Dom Smith and have said we should just wait till he gets to the normal ballparks in AA…….only he’s been awful this year (at least just by “scouting the statline” standards). have you heard anything regarding him and his struggles?
Klaw: He’s been very disappointing, but he also just turned 21 yesterday and is in AA. And he’s still making lots of contact and is even drawing a few more walks. But yes, to your point, this is below what I expected from him, and no, I haven’t heard of anything like an injury that might explain what’s happened the last few weeks.

John: You mention that moniak will probably never have an average power tool. One of the reasons that’s you say is because of his narrow stance and line drive swing. How often do teams tinker with this? Is it a common thing for teams to change a stance or a swing path?
Klaw: Stance isn’t hard to change, swing path can be very hard to change. Some guys can do it – Ben Zobrist and Jose Bautista are the two best examples I can think of – but far more struggle. Better to take the player based on what he is and will be with his current swing, at least when you’re drafting 1-1.

EC: I haven’t heard much talk about the “inverted W” recently. Was it disproved? Just a silly way to talk about mechanics?
Klaw: A silly way to talk about mechanics. I never liked or used the term and have said that I can make a lot of pitchers appear to do it simply by changing how high I’m standing while I shoot the picture or video. However, the “high elbow” in that position often means the pitcher is pronating pretty late relative to his front foot landing, and that’s generally a bad thing for arm health.

Michael: I love your work and generally agree with your positions, but I am pretty disappointed you have pushed for the judge in the Stanford case to be recalled. While you or I may disagree with the sentence, it is at least defensible given the probation officer’s recommendation and the severity of filing as a sex offender for life. Judicial independence is an important part of the American legal system and for you (or anyone) to advocate the removal of a judge for one decision is unprecedented and dangerous. (Attorneys who have worked with that judge have repeatedly called him impartial) You may have read extensively on the case (actual court documents), but most have not, and to call on the mob is somewhat irresponsible. Judges are independent for a reason: so they purposely do not give in to the whims of public opinion. You have a voice many of us would love to have. Criticize the judge and his decision all you want. But do it through speech, not a recall.
Klaw: He sentenced a man convicted of felony sexual battery to a jail term commensurate with a misdemeanor. The sex offender registration issue is a red herring: California law does not say jail OR registration, it says jail AND registration. If you read the probation officer’s report, it’s a pro-defendant disaster, and the victim has said it misrepresents her wishes for the defendant’s sentence. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to say a judge who treats sexual battery in such a cavalier manner, even in one case, does not belong on the bench.

Eric H.: Realistic ceilings for Christin Stewart and JaCoby Jones, in your opinion?
Klaw: Stewart above average regular, Jones up-and-down guy or AAA player.

Michael: Why did the Rockies wait so long to DFA Reyes? Clearly, that was a PR decision, but they kept him on the club through the winter and let him play in the PCL.
Klaw: I don’t think they would have been allowed to cut him sooner, at least not before MLB or authorities had weighed in on the charges. Also, I’m good with the outcome. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Bruce: I know it’s SSS but do you think Chris Paddack has top of the rotation potential? Did you foresee this when he was drafted in the 8th round?
Klaw: You’re definitely scouting the stat line if you’re taking 18 innings and talking TOR potential. For that to be true, I’d want to see at least two plus or future-plus pitches, a solid third and maybe fourth, a great delivery, size, history of health … a lot that Paddack doesn’t have. He’s 89-94 with an above-average split-change, no real breaking ball, and just missed almost two months with some kind of arm soreness. Good body and delivery. Great pick in the 8th round, but I could not possibly hang an ace ceiling tag on him just yet.

Owen (London): It’s only June and already Dusty is talking about consistency &the importance of being consistent, not to mention clutch hitters hitting clutchly in clutch situations. I live in London and I’m schvitzing.
Klaw: But they’re in first place ergo he must be a good manager!

Fred: How would you rank Thor, Matz, deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler in order must re-sign/not trade?
Klaw: Thor and deGrom at top. Wheeler is an unknown till he’s back. I’m least sanguine about the long-term health and durability of Harvey and Matz.

NickTheStick: If you had an AAA affiliate with an extreme hitters environment, would that change how you move a hitting prospect through the system? Hold him a little longer at AA? Maybe even call him straight up from there?
Klaw: Skip AAA entirely.

TedT: Assuming Jason Groome signs, about where on your list of top Red Sox prospects will he start out?
Klaw: No more than fourth or fifth I’d say. Pretty good system already.

Rick: You had Dylan Cozens as your sleeper for Philly pre-season. He’s roared out to a 19 HR, 13 SB, .967 OPS start with higher walk and strikeout rates than last season. Product of Reading or is this the breakout you imagined?
Klaw: I think it’s a lot of Reading, but also some maturation at the plate. I’ll buy into it more fully when he does it AAA. Hoskins too, whom I like even though he’s not my ‘type’ of player. I think some of it’s legit, but you can’t believe HR totals in Reading.

Adam: You referred to the Padres draft as confusing. Do you generally like the talent they were able to acquire by essentially buyin low or would you have preferred to see them go top heavy like what the Braves did?
Klaw: I would have gone for it at 8, 24, and 25, while the best players were still on the board, and then gone a little cheaper later to overpay those guys if needed.

Nelson: Klaw, do you consider osteopathy a real science or more pseudo? And if so, when would it be better to go to an Osteopath over a MD?
Klaw: There is a lot of pseudoscience within osteopathy. This essay does the best job I’ve seen of breaking it down.

Michael: Jenkins called up by the Braves……in the bullpen now but you still buying him as a starter long term??
Klaw: Yes, but he needs to miss more bats to be a starter, and I’m wondering if he’ll move to the pen and miss more bats straight off so that that becomes his long-term role.

Francis R.: Have you read Sam Harris’ essay “The Riddle of the Gun” His arguments are so reasoned, this should be required reading for all lawmakers and pundits before they start discussing gun control.
Klaw: Yep, it’s outstanding. Highly recommended.

Al: How can the Orioles stay in the race? Is it impossible? Is strong hitting, defense and bullpen work enough? Because they arent going to get quality starting all year….does that hurt the bullpen then?
Klaw: They haven’t been getting quality starting so far, other than Tillman, and are still basically a .500 team since the 7-0 start. If that means they’re heading for 86-76, are they still fringe contenders?

DPF: Could Cutch get 2 top 100 prospects and a MLB regular if traded this offseason?
Klaw: Depends on whether he gets healthy and performs in the second half. I’m sure he’d still fetch something of value even if not, maybe two top-end prospects and that’s it, but teams will be wary of paying up for him if they’re afraid he’s not 100%.

Gary: Do you think Keuchel turns it around? His peripherals seem to suggest he will.
Klaw: Yes. Seems to be way off mechanically. Stuff is fine.

Pete: Hi Keith. Will the Pirates promote Meadows and Keller soon? Would you?
Klaw: No. No rush on either guy. Both young for their levels with minimal experience below.

Joe: Jake Lamb’s power outburst legitimate? Already up to 12 so far this season.
Klaw: Yep. I’m on it.

Pineapple: Are you a Psych fan, Klaw?
Klaw: You know that’s right.

Nate: Does Josh Hader move into your top 50 for the next prospect rankings?
Klaw: No. Delivery issues remain.

Brad Z: Does Beau Burrow’s low K rate concern you?
Klaw: No. He’s 19 with a handful of innings of pro experience.

Brad Z: Matt Hall has pretty good numbers at West Michigan. How do you project him going forward?
Klaw: Non-prospect.

Nelson: How many older guys like Duvall are there in the Minors that can come up and hit 25+Hrs with a .300 OBP immediately. Are there a bunch, or is he really unique?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s that unique. Most teams wouldn’t play a guy with his lack of OBP skills, so we don’t see it happening very often.

Mulechop: Merrifield has looked pretty good so far. Can he be a league average 2B?
Klaw: No. Like, not even sure I’d give him a 1% chance.

I reordered the following two questions for clarity. I have not changed any of the text.

Anonymous: We talked briefly on twitter yesterday about Syndergaard and you said a complete game has no intrinsic value. Taken to the extreme, if pitcher A has 30 starts of 8 IP and player B had 30 complete games and all other stats are equal, nothing differentiates these two guys in your eyes?
Klaw: Well, player B has nine more innings. Whoop de do.

Ben: Keith, Player B would have 30 more innings in that scenario. One more inning for each start X 30 starts=30 innings. That’s a pretty big difference, is it not?
Klaw: Sorry, I totally misread the question and you’re right. Still, the difference is the thirty innings, not the complete games. I guess the better analogy would be Player A makes 20 starts and completes them all, while Player B makes 30 starts and averages six innings in each, so 180 innings each. Is Player A somehow more valuable because he’s completing all of those games? I don’t buy it. How?

Nathan: Logan Shore at #47. Was that a good, safe pick or should the A’s have aimed for a higher ceiling talent?
Klaw: Little safe, but appropriate for the round.

Ray: You believe in science. Are there studies that show one week of pitching too much causes major injuries? I’m against overuse too, but it seems that throwing 250 pitches in 72 hours one time isn’t as big of a risk as pitching itself.
Klaw: ASMI research has consistently shown that pitching while fatigued increases the risk of injury. If you think anyone can throw that much and not end up fatigued, well, we just disagree.

006: Don’t understand why they would activate Willson Contreras at this point….they are 24 games over .500, no? Unless something is wrong with Montero/Ross?
Klaw: I believe Ross got dinged up last night – Ron Coomer apparently floated this on Chicago radio today.

Ben: Is Kendall the best college hitter in the draft next year as of now? What about best overall college prospect?
Klaw: Right now, he’s the best college position player in the class. I don’t know who’s clearly 1-1 if anyone, but I am hopeful this is a 2011 situation where 4-5 players are good enough to go 1-1 and you can’t really go wrong with any of them.

Tom: Josh Bell already has more homers this year than last year, although his K% is up to 17. Is he turning into a power hitter or just a hot streak?
Klaw: Not sure what the “although” is … that’s a comically low K rate for a hitter like Bell. I think he’s pulling the ball more this year, unlocking power he’s always had.

Vin: Why do you think Bryan Reynolds fell so far in the draft? With so much ability, it seems foolish that teams were so scared of his strikeouts, especially considering his awareness of the strike zone.
Klaw: Yeah, the strikeouts, concerns he’ll struggle vs good lefties, better pitching … where the Giants took him, I’d take that toolset eight days a week. I would have taken it 30 picks higher. He’s not hopeless at the plate, but he’ll need to tighten his approach.

Ben: At what point do we become concerned with Judge’s AAA stats, particularly his propensity to strikeout at a high rate?
Klaw: I believe I raised this concern last summer when he was in AA. That said, he’s been cutting the K rate this season – started June 0-8 with 3 Ks, and since then has 9 K in 56 PA, hitting .409/.536/.636 in that 12-game span. Small sample, hardly definitive, but at least pointing in the right direction.

Doug: Are you surprised Cal Quantrill received an above slot deal? Especially considering Pint went well below.
Klaw: Yes. I can’t imagine returning to stanford next year for Marquess to run him into the ground was an appealing alternative to signing.

Ben: Do you think Severino figures out his command issues on his offspeed pitches?
Klaw: I have no way to tell. I think the delivery makes it hard for him to repeat his arm stroke, but that was true last year and his command was better than it was this year.

Andrew: David Paulino has posted impressive numbers in AA, but I don’t know too much about him…is he a potential rotation guy?
Klaw: Bullpen guy. Power arm with delivery/command questions.

BW: You said you were surprised Alex Kirilloff went to the Twins. How good do you think he can be?
Klaw: Only in that I just didn’t have good intel on the Twins this year. That’s my mistake, not theirs. Above-average everyday right fielder with power.

Jack: Why did Groome back out of his Vandy commitment?
Klaw: He was never going to Vandy. I think the ploy was for him to threaten to go back into next year’s draft, but that class is so loaded with college arms that it’s not a credible alternative to signing.

Nate: What do you expect from Tim Anderson this season? 275/300/400?
Klaw: I’d take the under, slightly.

Brett: Keith, are you concerned at all about Rafael Devers season so far in high A? You had him ranked I think #9 in your pre season prospect list. Any concerns long term?
Klaw: None. Again, he’s been much better lately, and he’s only 19 years old.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: So Bob Davidson tosses Rendon because “he thought he was going to throw the bat at me.” Is there a more ridiculous statement, especially given the player involved. And, why aren’t Umpires held to more public accountability?
Klaw: No idea. That was clear provocation by Davidson, who was confrontational with Rendon immediately after tossing him. MLB should be much more open about umpires who pull this crap.

Rudy: The AZ baseball coach said he’d rather not breathe than lose a game which tells you why he doesn’t give a shit about his players.
Klaw: And adds to the impression that he flunked Anatomy 101.

Tuesday: I’ve got a weakness for mysteries set in another time, if not involving actual people (see Name of the Rose by Eco, Instance of the Fingerpost by Pears, Monaldi & Sorti). Any good ones you can recommend?
Klaw: The Woman in White by Wilkie Collins (and his other great novel, The Moonstone) are set in the 1850s because that’s when they were written. TWIW is considered the first major suspense novel.

Michael: Why do the PCL and California League exist then? Is it too expensive to start leagues in better environments?
Klaw: Where would you put them? Especially the PCL, which has teams in good-sized metro areas in the west that can by and large support these clubs. There are a handful of A-ball type markets unserved on the east coast, but not enough to add a half-dozen or so AAA teams.

James: Still think Archie Bradley is a starter?
Klaw: Long term, yes.

Donny Baseball: Is it realistic to ask for Schwarber for Miller?
Klaw: You can ask. The worst that happens is they say no. It’s not insulting to ask for that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Scouting the Stat line: Drew Ward is breaking out. True or False?
Klaw: False. Repeating the level.

Jeremy: Zagunis just moved up to AAA. Can he be a major league contributor? He has a .400 OBP at every level in the minors.
Klaw: And has no position. He’ll play in the majors but I don’t see where he’d be a regular.

Matt: Some see AJ Puk as a bargain at No. 6, but with his recent struggles, was he actually a big risk at 6? Or do you think he will get things sorted out being with professional coaches?
Klaw: Not a bargain. About right. Has work to do on the delivery – lower half in particular is not well synced with upper half.

Santos: Serious question – why can’t you trust HR totals in Reading? You generally don’t hear that in the East.
Klaw: Small park that favors HR dramatically relative to other Eastern League parks.

Ignatius O’Reilly: The Rangers have a comfortable lead in the A.L. West, despite getting very little from Yu Darvish and nothing from Prince Fielder. They have a strong farm system they can use to make deadline deals, but other than bullpen help, is there anything (or anyone) out there they should really be giving up a big package for come July?
Klaw: Nope. And really, they could continue to improve by benching Moreland for Gallo.

Kevin: In what round, or specific player, was the first guy taken that you had no notes on or had not heard of?
Klaw: Travis MacGregor was the only day one guy on whom I had nothing. Not coincidentally, everyone I asked called that the ‘worst’ pick of the day – the subset of teams I asked had him either as a fifth rounder or as someone who should go to college.

Jason: Tyler O’Neill is putting up even better numbers as a 20 year old in the Southern League… is he on the rise?
Klaw: Yes – I’m most impressed that he’s not striking out, actually, as that was a real concern I had about him. Power was absolutely there, Cal League or not, but I didn’t know if he’d hit enough to get to it. He’s doing that and more and is still just 21 in AA.

Colin: I know Grichuk can’t tell a strike from his head, but do you like what the Cardinals are doing with Wong and CF. Do you think he can handle it adequately?
Klaw: I haven’t liked their handling of Wong for a while now, going back to the weird (punitive?) demotion … last April? or was that 2014? Either way, moving him off 2b seemed awfully reactive. He was never great there, never bad.

Kyle: Keith – do you think Mengden and Overton can become #4/5 starters in a solid rotation?
Klaw: Yes. Mengden might be a 4. Odds are both are 5s. Above replacement level, below average. Overton I’d like more if the velocity ever gets all the way back to pre-TJ levels.

NEP: Starting tomorrow how would you split up the playing time between the 3 Cubs catchers with Contreras coming up?
Klaw: Start Contreras 4 days out of 5, let Ross catch the other day, give Montero a fruit basket.

Jimmy: I know Adam Duvall is a first half outlier but can’t there be a ‘well that came out of nowhere’ spot on the All Star team or because home field is wrongly linked we can’t have fun like that?
Klaw: It really goes against the original purpose and main current value of the game: Get the best players all on one field at one time for the mass audience to watch. No one but Mrs. Duvall is turning on the game to watch Adam Duvall play. People will tune in to watch a genuine star having an off half-season, like Giancarlo Stanton. If you want to slip in a few guys who’ve come from nowhere, then make them young players, especially rookies, who will form the next generation of stars.

Justin: What is a realistic line going forward for Aledmys Diaz? .260/.330/.400 with average D at SS?
Klaw: I think he’s a below-average defender at short but the triple-slash line is probably right, maybe a little too low in the batting average.

Tom: I recently blew through a bunch of your restaurant recs found here on this very site. I’ve probably gone to about 15 places you’ve recommended and have always like them. No question – this is just a PSA for everyone chatting.
Klaw: Thanks! Glad they’ve worked out. One of the consolations of heavy travel is that I find some pretty fun places to eat.

Paul: Klaw – I know you’ve been buried in amateur prospect coverage the last month or so, but have you happened to catch any recent reports on Touki? I see that he’s still walking a ton of batter, but his last start was streamed on MILB, and good grief he looked filthy. Guess that’s pretty much the MO, though.
Klaw: Yep, stuff is great, still the same great athlete, just raw. Going to take him a while. I think everyone knew that when the Dbacks drafted him and when they gave him away.

FS: if Dunning is ML ready reliever, should Nationals consider promoting him this season? Their bullpen can use the help.
Klaw: No. He’s a starter long-term and I would transition him into that role.

Bret: I know you weren’t a fan of the Blue Jays draft, though in the past few years they have typically had a lot of success (when signing their picks). Do you attribute it to a change on leadership/philosophy, or just a case of not happening to be on the same page with particular player choices?
Klaw: This looks like a new philosophy in the draft and it certainly doesn’t match mine.

Ian: What have you heard on Brandon Marsh?
Klaw: Nothing really, other than that we’re a month from the signing deadline and anything players say at this point is probably codswallop. Perhaps it’s a ploy on his part or his agent’s – I don’t know that, but it’s possible.

Pete: Does Derek Hill’s defense make him at least a 4th OFer, even if he never figures it out at the plate?
Klaw: Yes, assuming he at least can put the ball in play 75% of the time.

Anonymous: I just read that Harris piece. Measured, but flawed. 100,000 people don’t die every year because doctors fail to wash their hands. 100,000 die every year from infections which live in hospitals and when you are cut open, you are susceptible to them. And protocols are in place to reduce that. In the same vein, we should protocols in place to reduce gun deaths whether mass shootings or singular incidents.
Klaw: I agree and favor much stricter laws on who can buy guns and what guns they can purchase. (I do not own a gun and hope I never have cause to change that.)

Busty Taker: Did Dusty Baker kick your dog?
Klaw: No, but he said my cat wasn’t clutch and needed more AAA seasoning. (Grow up already.)

Aaron: How many guys from next years draft class are you familiar with at this point?
Klaw: Twenty guys, maybe? Not enough to really talk in more than general terms. I try not to use any bandwidth on the year ahead until the draft has passed.

Anonymous: Hi Keith, any scouting report on Gourriel? Does he have a much higher floor than so many of the other Cuban players that have defected, given his age and track record?
Klaw: I saw him very bad last summer, but apparently he played much better over the winter. I highly doubt he can come right to the majors and contribute, given his age and time off, but he could be an everyday player next year for someone. I’d be really concerned about investing too much given how slow and old he looked last July, though.

Dan: What is going on with Ronald Acuna? Reports this season have been great but he hasn’t played in over a month and is on the DL but I haven’t seen any details on his injury. Is it serious?
Klaw: Broke his hand, I think. I know some Atlanta blogger(s) tweeted a picture of him wearing a cast.

Dan: What Toni Morrison work would you recommend someone starting with?
Klaw: Beloved, then Song of Solomon, then stop. It’s all downhill from there.

Dan: Brent Honeywell has been out over a month with an arm issue. I’ve heard it’s not overly serious but there has to be some level of concern with a young guy an elbow issues. Have you heard anything about his status and do you think he’s a big injury risk going forward?
Klaw: I think anyone who misses that much time with an arm injury is a risk going forward.

Ed: What does Tom Hatch project as in the bigs? a 4 or 5? Or bullpen? He seems like a solid pick for a college player in the 3rd round.
Klaw: Could be a 3 if healthy but he’s had some real health issues.

Brewersfan: Brett Phillips is striking out a lot… (32%) Should we worry about that? Maybe lost his status as top100?
Klaw: Completely serious question: Why do so many fans assume players jump in or out of the top 100 after 60 games? Is the skill set the same? The swing, the body, the delivery? Is there an underlying explanation, like an injury (remember when Hosmer played half a year in low-A with a broken metacarpal in his hand), that might explain a poor performance? Phillips is still the same guy he was last year. He might just take a little longer than we’d like.

Nationals Review: A few weeks ago when Espinosa was pretty awful at the plate you and I discussed replacing him with Turner (thanks again!). Now that Espi is hitting, at a clearly unsustainable but incredibly awesome 8 HRs in last 70 PAs… Seems silly to replace him with Turnet today, but How much rope should he get?
Klaw: None. I think that’s pure recency bias – he’s the same guy he was in May and April and 2015. What would you project him to be the rest of this year – the player he’s been the last 70 PA, or the guy you and I discussed him being when we talked a few weeks back?

Tom: O’Hearn, Mancini, Healy – are any of them legitimate breakouts? Which one profiles the best?
Klaw: Most hope for O’Hearn. Not much of a believer in the other two. Mancini’s 24 and hasn’t been anything special in AAA.

RP: Jim Salisbury, a well connected Philly writer, says Moniak is getting $6.5-7M and Gowdy is getting $4.5M. The Gowdy number can’t be true, can it?
Klaw: I doubt those numbers are true, sorry.

Rick: How frustrating it must be to offer an honest opinion on a player (McCullers) only to have him totally miss the point and blast you on Twitter as some “crappy” blogger. It’s not even like you said he’ll never be a starter.
Klaw: Also, I said he’d be a closer, potentially, which is like an $8-12 million a year job. It was a childish comment and I did not respond for that reason.

Bill: How does Moniak’s offensive skillset compare to J.P. Crawford’s when he was drafted?
Klaw: Liked Crawford’s swing more. Better runner underway. Didn’t know Crawford was this disciplined a hitter at the time.

Biff: Keith, newly working in the Wilmington metro area, what are your go-to can’t miss local spots?
Klaw: Cocina Lolo, La Fia, Two Stones are our favorites in the area. The best food is in Philly though.

Clem: Do you have a report on Josh Okimey? Tearing up the lower minors with lots of walks…is he a prospect?
Klaw: Yes, he is. Think I mentioned him last week in chat. Got MUCH stronger this winter, body totally changed.

Rob: Rowdy Tellez and JD Davis were once hS teammates. Is there a better chance they play against each other in the big leagues or that they are once again teammates….on the USA Men’s National Slo Pitch Softball Team.
Klaw: The latter.

Marshall: Name the 3 first rounders from last week that you think have the best chance to become multi-time all stars.
Klaw: Not sure I’d put that on anyone in this draft. It was really weak at the top. My top 3 guys were Ray, Groome, and Garrett, so that would be my answer, but even so I’m not sure they have that kind of potential … Ray because he doesn’t have quite that upside as a probable LF, the other two because they’re high school pitchers.

Adam: I am here every week and a big supporter of you and havent had a question answered in months………have I been black balled or just asking bad questions?
Klaw: I get hundreds of questions every week. The software says I have over 400 this week. Can’t get them all.

Chris: Luis Ortiz is holding his own in AA it looks like, but I’m only looking at stats so it could be way off. Is he a Guy?
Klaw: He’s a GUY, but probably not really ready for AA, more there because the Rangers didn’t want to leave him in the Cal League. Kate Morrison (@unlikelyfanatic) saw his last outing. She’d have more for you.

Brian: Do you agree w/the idea that the Phillies system is very deep but has few really elite talents?
Klaw: That’s fair, other than Crawford.

Anthony: Tyler Austin was a guy you liked awhile ago. Then injuries and lack of production struck. He is playing pretty well this year though. Has he made it back on to your radar yet?
Klaw: Really believed in his swing. Was not the same for two-plus years after the wrist injury … and maybe he was never that good before? Long way to go to reestablish himself, since it’s only 11 games in AAA and he’s played at that level before.

James: Would the Padres really trade Wil Myers? How can that be a good move?
Klaw: What if they get back multiple pieces who can help them?

Ben: Six years later I would like to ask it: what the hell were the Yankees thinking with Cito Culver
Klaw: I did not like the pick – he wasn’t on my top 100 for the draft that year – but I believe a lot of it was that they loved the kid, knew him really well because he’d played on their scout team that summer at East Coast Pro and Area Codes, and perhaps overrated him as a player because of his makeup.

jim: Who is the better pitcher out of allard wentz and Anderson
Klaw: Allard, Anderson, Wentz, in that order.

Jeffrey: I think one could make the argument that in some cases, the best players aren’t really “stars” as far as being widely known off the field throughout the country. I’m as big a Reds fan as their is, and I’m not sure anyone outside of Cincinnati cares a lick about seeing Joey Votto take 2 walks. He’s a wizard, but he has the personality of a loaf of bread. So sure, give the Reds token slot to Duvall. Or Bruce. I doubt anyone will care.
Klaw: Actually I’d advocate Finnegan over those others. Always need more pitching in those games and in one inning he’ll hit 97 a few times with a wipeout slider. And he’s been their best starter.

Pat: The closeness of those PCL cities to the MLB team also adds value when adding AAA guys to the MLB team due to injuries. LAD can call up a guy from Albuquerque & he’s in LA in 3-4 hours. Can’t do that with a guy playing on the East Coast.
Klaw: Very good point. Even helps for the Cal League – you can send Puig to rehab in Rancho Cucamonga and, uh, keep tabs on him while he’s there.

Dan: I just finished The Sympathizer and man, was it good. (pun not intended) I was surprised at how easy it was to read given the structure. I read your review before the chat and saw you enjoyed it as well.
Klaw: Yep, totally see why it won the Pulitzer. Oddly gripping given the subject matter and lack of any traditional narrative element like a mystery or concern over a sympathetic main character.

Mike: I’m a physician (MD). I work with DOs (Doctors of Osteopathy). They’re medical training is largely the same as MDs, and they are held to the same standards for board certifications and medical licensure. While some aspects of their training are questionable, a DO physician should not be considered “inferior” to an allopathic physician. I thought it was worth pointing this out to your readers as there is a lot of unfair bias in the medical community against them.
Klaw: Thank you for that. I think it’s doctor to doctor. That raging crackpot pediatrician in Tennessee who came out as a vaccine-denying quack is an MD, so there are idiots on both sides.

Mike: has your perception on aaron blair changed any from his mlb starts? do you think Flowers would help frame more for him than AJ? Thanks KlAw
Klaw: No change. Isn’t AJP the worst framer or one of the worst in baseball? So an elastic net would be better behind the plate.

Karl: Are Mitch Keller and Kuhl org type guys or do they have potential to be #2 or #3 rotation guys?
Klaw: Big gap between those outcomes. I think Kuhl’s a two-pitch reliever. Keller might be a 2. Good athlete, fresh arm, chance for three pitches.

Ridley Kemp: I have a meta-question: Approximately how many Donald Trump-related questions have been asked of you so far?
Klaw: Almost none. Definitely some selection bias here.

Dan: Hi Keith-saw Tim Anderson in his second game. Not knowing his milb stats, I focused on his plate presence–he seemed like a guy ready to swing, very animated. I cd be totally wrong, of course. But do you eval plate presence like you do mound presence?
Klaw: Not really, unless the body language is terrible, like Donavan Tate’s was in HS – totally disinterested.

Jeff: Tyler Mahler was your Reds sleeper this year, threw a no-no this week. So uh, please pick a bunch more Reds sleepers. Thank you.
Klaw: Um …. Jackson Stephens! Aristides Aquino! Nick Senzel! Wait, that might be cheating.

Mike: The Rockies took mostly arms (probably right due to strength of draft and BPA)….will they ruin a few deliveries by tinkering like Matzek and Gray?
Klaw: I get the sense that’s over with now. I hope so at least.

James: Does Kevin Newman have the best hit tool you’ve ever scouted?
Klaw: No, but I think it’s plus. I got some grief over ranking him as high as I did – not just from readers but from friends within the game. Granted, it’s only high-A, but at least he’s played well out of the chute.

Klaw: That’s all for this week; sorry there were some little software glitches and a brain cramp or two on my end. I’ll be back at some point next week, but with travel to Omaha for BBTN it might not be on Thursday. Thank you as always for reading.

Klawchat, 6/10/16.

Insiders can see my my first-round recap now, and I’ll continue writing throughout the day.

Klaw: One good day of the week and I’ll be up again. Klawchat.

Andrew: What is Thaiss’ position? Seems like the Angels reached (surprise surprise) but is the hope that he can get to the majors quickly in hopes of contributing in that 2018-2020 timeframe before the Trout window slams shut?
Klaw: Catcher who won’t stay there, so I think first base. Fast mover with the bat. Need to see the power going forward. I liked him, mostly because so many people praised the hit tool (I saw him just OK). Feel like he’s high-floor but perhaps more average regular than star?

Kyle: Dylan Carson a reach at 33?
Klaw: I thought so.

Banksy_: Whats the new story on Groome, what got him to 12? Is there a good chance he balks at their offer and he goes to Chippola?
Klaw: I’m sure he’ll say that and will ultimately sign. Slot there is $3.2 million. He’d be an all-time idiot to turn that down – the left-handed Matt Harrington, if you will. (Was Matt Harrington right-handed? I don’t even know. Not like I ever saw him pitch.)

N: Which Kieboom has a better long term outlook and by how much
Klaw: Carter is a regular, above-average most likely. Spencer is probably a good backup catcher with a chance to start occasionally.

Greg: You don’t draft for need and I understand that. But when there is a system like Atlanta with only Swanson and Albies projecting to be above average hitters, don’t you have to start taking hitters at some point? I’m not mad as a Braves fan, I’m just trying to figure out how this team is going to score any runs when they’re trying to compete a few years from now.
Klaw: If the draft is loaded with high school pitchers, don’t force it to give you a college hitter. They loaded up on the draft’s strength.

N: If Dunning were kept a reliever, which I know he’s not, how close would he be to MLB-ready at signing?
Klaw: This year. But I agree, it’s a waste of his talent.

Jamie S.: How did the Mets do in your mind? Seems like BPA all the way through (and that’s perfectly fine to me).
Klaw: Loved the first three picks – mentioned them in my round two recap (which posted after you wrote this question).

Sean: Will the Giants drafting of Reynolds affect their ability to draft more expensive players?
Klaw: If it does, so what? They got a first-round talent in the second round. I’d be ecstatic.

Nick: Can Zack Burdi be transitioned into a starter, or does remain in the bullpen fulltime?
Klaw: I know some scouts thought he could start but I believe the White Sox want to use him in relief.

Nick: Appears Tim Anderson will be called up, does he make an immediate offensive impact and can he keep up defensively at ss?
Klaw: Very skeptical of his ability to make an offensive impact given his plate discipline. Great prospect, most likely not ready today.

Jeff: Hi Keith. What are the makeup concerns about Groome? Is it serious stuff or 17-yr. old immaturity stuff?
Klaw: To me it’s immaturity and idiocy. No violence, no felonies, not a sociopath. I am more concerned about Delvin Perez’s makeup than Groome’s.

Chris: Were teams that concerned about Perez, who you had as high as three at one point, by the PED test? At 17, I guess I think it’d be hard to imagine that PEDs were the main driving force behind his production. What do you think his ceiling is as a player?
Klaw: He showed up this year with more power (oops) and running faster (who knows?). Still a potential ++ defender with bat speed. But I think the PED results confirm earlier concerns about makeup and work ethic.

Nick: Does Nolan Jones sign at 55?
Klaw: I assume anyone taken in the top three rounds will sign if he passes a physical. Most of these picks involve deals or conversations around money before the selection. (Not all, but most.)

Sam: Did Jose Miranda drop out of the top 100 for an interesting reason?
Klaw: No, he was literally #101, took him off when I added Will Smith to the middle of the list when I suddenly got a slew of positive reports on Smith. I like Miranda a lot as a hitter, think he has to move to 3b.

Anonymous: What round do you think Lasky (Haddon Heights, NJ) will end up being drafted? What about Tyler Mondile? Excited to see several south jersey guys in your top 100.
Klaw: I believe Laskey ends up at Duke. He’s not getting $2-3 million after his velocity tailed off at the end. He’ll be a guy to watch for 2019. It’s the fourth round right now which I believe is Mondile territory.

sean: I believe you had Justin Dunn ranked 15, do you feel he’s someone who can get to the Mets bullpen in late 2017 and be a starter in 2018? He’s young, 21 in September, but he seems like a player who is rapidly rising and making the proper adjustments, at least at the college level. Thanks
Klaw: He’s a starter, now and in the future.

Nick: Does Rutherford sign or go to UCLA for two years and re-enter the Draft in 2018?
Klaw: Again, I assume they all sign. Slot at 18 is $2.5 million. Maybe they go over. He does have big leverage due to his age but that’s a lot of coin to turn down.

Nick: Who are some guys that will be taken today or tomorrow because of signability issues that could be 1st rounders in 2019?
Klaw: Hunter Bishop, Jeff Belge, maybe Drew Mendoza (I see a lot of swing and miss, I know scouts who love the power and body), Ryan Rolison, Tyler Baum (totally unsignable, I’m told). Might have said Mason Thompson but the Padres took him.

Banksy_: What level does Quantrll start at? Have to think theres an innings limit with him for a while too, right?
Klaw: I assume he comes back this summer and pitches in short-season in brief outings as if he’s continuing his rehab. Wouldn’t be wrong to hold him out till instructs.

Jimincanow: Do you think the Phillies have picked right in the first 2 rounds?
Klaw: I think they picked well. It’s not exactly who I would have taken, but that doesn’t make it wrong.

Drew: People’s reaction to MLB draft picks is insane, right? There were Twins fans upset that they took Kirilloff at 14, pretty much right where he was ranked in most rankings I saw. So they add their own “scouting” and say it was a terrible pick when there is next to zero chance any of them saw him take one swing. It’s like saying you hate Indian food if you’ve never tried, only ever heard of Indian food.
Klaw: So you’re saying it’s like a 7-year-old kid’s reaction? “I hate squid.” “You’ve never tried squid.” “Yeah but I know I’ll hate it.”

Jim: Hi Keith- How often are the major league coaches consulted when considering picks? Specifically, do you think the White Sox showed Cooper some video of Alec Hansen and asked if he could iron out his control issues?
Klaw: If there’s a coach who’s exceptional like Cooper is, yes, that’s common, and makes sense because ultimately it’ll be that coach’s project – maybe not a major league coach but a minor league coordinator. I know there are also some folks like Scioscia and Showalter who more or less insist on being involved in the process. I’m not a big fan of that myself.

David: Hi Keith, I love your work. I would love to see teams trade draft picks. My question: As a Pirates man, how much should I worry about Will Craig’s struggles in the Cape Cod league?
Klaw: A lot. I think it made him a reach at 22. Same reason I don’t think JB Woodman was worth a top three rounds pick, and the Jays took him in the second.

John: How far does Funkhouser fall? 104 possible?
Klaw: Well he went 115 to Detroit (shocker, they took a Boras guy), so there you go. Bad situation for him – he should have signed last year.

Andrew: Is it possible Dane Dunning’s stock was artificially lowered just by the depth of the Florida rotation. IOW, could u have seen a world where Dunning was on a different college team, flourished, and would have been a top 5 pick? A gem hidden in Florida’s pen? Or do you think he ends up a reliever anyway?
Klaw: He’s a starter and yes, he might have gone higher had he been a starter all year. But he was never overused (thank you, Sully) and did get scouted a ton because people were always there to see the umpteen other Gators worth drafting, so net/net I don’t think he fared badly.

Chris: Not impressed with the Puk at #6. Too many red flags there…lumbering, unathletic, inconsistent this spring, walks too many guys. Yes he throws hard, yes he has a good slider, but I’m seeing Drew Pomeranz 2.0. What say you?
Klaw: You mentioned all the negatives and I think they’re generally true. I also think his lower half and upper half aren’t well synced up in the delivery. He’s also 6’6″, 93-97, with a good changeup, average breaking ball, and good extension out front. Those dudes don’t grow on trees and if you don’t take that at pick 6 you might never get one another way.

Chris: Which of these do you think needs to happen first: international draft, tradeable draft picks, or eliminating the tie between the draft and free agency?
Klaw: The last one is the most important, the first one is the most likely.

Sean A: Brewers have already said they plan to develop Ray as a CF. Chances of him sticking their and will that increase his duration in the minors?
Klaw: I think that’s the smart move. Maybe 30-40% chance he sticks there. Average defense in center makes him a frequent all-star.

Jackson: I understand that I know nothing about this. I do, really. But I watch college ball….and why did some of these late first roundteams take some of these pitchers before Dakota Hudson (e.g. Nats taking Dane Dunning). Hard to wrap mind around.
Klaw: Lot of folks think Hudson’s delivery makes him a reliever in time. Also think his fastball can get very straight. If you believe in the cutter, he’s a first-rounder.

Pioneer: Keith, thanks as always for the chat. Do you feel that AJ Puk’s workload was more a function of his command issues, or O’Sullivan just having such a deep staff that he could spread the innings around? I was surprised that he fell to my A’s, but he definitely doesn’t seem to be a fast-tracker.
Klaw: He had the back spasms, and a couple of times didn’t pitch well enough to go deep into games. He did hold his velocity into the 7th when I saw him last.

Josh: Liked the Sedlock pick but didn’t realize the manner in which Illinois used him this year. Still a future starter/how risky is he?
Klaw: Future starter, but the O’s have to back off him this year. Also, Illinois misused Jay last year and misused Sedlock. When schools do this, recruits need to pay attention.

Scott: I didn’t see Chatham in your top 100. Does he have the potential to be a prospect or was that more an overdraft so they can save some money to sign Groome?
Klaw: I thought he was a 4th-5th rounder. Can’t stay at short, questionable hit tool. Utility infielder in long run.

Zach: So it seems as if Austin Meadows took his removal from your top 25 very personally. His line since then? .429/.456/.889. Safe to say he’s snapped out of his post injury rusty phase? Also, please remove Tyler Glasnow from your ranking so he can start to really kick ass. You clearly have that kind of power, Keith.
Klaw: He wasn’t “removed” so much as passed by guys who were healthy and off to better starts.

Jeff (CT): Thoughts on Yankees second round pick, Nick Solak? I’m surprised they didn’t take a pitcher in this round.
Klaw: Sort of a scouts’ favorite, good ballplayer without big tools, but I thought more 3rd-4th round.

Bret: It seems like most online consensus is that the Jays could have done better than Zeuch, but they obviously don’t see it that way, of course. What do they see in him that justifies the #21 pick?
Klaw: Big size, fastball comes right down at you, flashes an above average breaking ball. I wasn’t on it up there – would have taken Kay before him, for example.

Wally: You nailed the Nats two picks at the end of the 1st round, which is like a 90′ putt. Is that one of the porganizations that you feel like you have good contacts/relationship, or was it a SWAG? What did you think of their Day 1 picks?
Klaw: I seldom get info like that direct from an organization about its own picks, and did not here. Really, really liked their day one. Hell, I like their day two so far too.

Banksy_: Is AJ Preller just taking kids that already have 1 TJ out of the way already, or is there actually a rhyme to his reason…yo?
Klaw: Both guys were, in theory, talented enough to go higher if healthy.

JeffT: How much should a team take into account “make-up” when dealing with a 17 yo? I mean who is the person (for better or worse) at 23 than 17?
Klaw: It matters more than you think. You’re handing the kid six or seven figures, then asking him to go be a professional, with all the responsibilities of conditioning, work ethic, discipline, and behavior that many people don’t encounter until they’re 19 or 21 or 23.

Ben: Hello from Taiwan, Keith! Love your work. Why did Rutherford fall so much? Is there any red flags or concerns other than signability? In terms of signability of Rutherford, how much is too much?
Klaw: I think signability and the fact that he turned 19 a month ago, making him an older high school player (and in a demographic that hasn’t fared well historically).

James: What do you think of the Rangers’ first two picks? I’m surprised Speas was still there in the second
Klaw: I’m not. Great arm and body, with 20 command.

Peter: I know from yesterday’s chat you weren’t expecting any of the college bats to be available for the Mariners, but how surprised are you that Lewis slipped to 11? And does Lewis become the M’s top prospect in the system once he signs?
Klaw: I had him ranked 10th, so I think it’s the right spot, but I thought others liked him more. He does swing and miss too much and I do not agree that he’s a lock to stay in center.

Nick: What’s Cole Stobbe’s ceiling?
Klaw: Ceiling probably above average regular at third. I thought he was somewhere in the 101-120 ranking area, but really at that point in the draft anything plus or minus a round is within range.

Brian: Do you think Anderson was the BPA on the Braves board at 3? Or was he simply the best combo of talent & cost? If it’s the latter, do you feel like the Braves got enough talent with their subsequent picks to justify not taking BPA at 3?
Klaw: I thought he was really good, moved him up to 7th on my final board after hearing his velocity was all the way back on Saturday. I think they probably felt they were getting BPA anyway but at a discount relative to slot at 3. I had a couple of guys above him, but again, my word is not definitive, and in this draft in particular a couple of spots in the rankings is essentially nothing.

John: If you’re the Rockies, the best case scenario is grab all the power arm prospects you can, hope you hit on a few and if they do succeed deal them at their peak for more prospects. You’ll never have a long term successful pitcher here. correct?
Klaw: I’m not that pessimistic. I think you draft power arms because that’s the only way you’re ever going to have enough pitching to compete. But if the draft gives you Brendan Rodgers or David Dahl (to say nothing of second-rounder Nolan Arenado … my God that was a good pick), take him. Don’t force the arm.

mike: can you explain the reason what the catch-all term “character concerns” is so often used (e.g. Groome) and what those concerns are are not actually reported by anyone? Is it respect for kid’s privacy or something else
Klaw: Because lawyers. I know what’s up with Groome – I did some background work of my own to check on some of the rumors (nearly all of which turned out to be false … for example, he was not kicked out of IMG). But I can’t say exactly what I know because ESPN has editorial standards for reporting and I abide by those.

Justin: For a guy like Connor Jones, is it worth the Cardinals trying to fix his delivery but risking making him a less effective pitcher?
Klaw: He’s not very effective right now. Fix the delivery and see if he starts throwing harder and/or with more sink.

Will: About how many prospects from this draft do you think go into the top 100?
Klaw: Maybe a dozen? Depends on promotions but we seem to be losing a lot of kids to the majors already.

Tom: Seems like the pirates are having a pretty crappy draft. Thoughts on what they’ve done so far?
Klaw: well I would never use that word, but I’m not a fan of the first few picks. Lodolo is interesting but he’s a very long-term development project – I thought he might be a top guy for 2019 instead.

Brian: Keith, the Red Sox selected Florida’s closer, Shaun Anderson, in round 3, mlb.com suggests he could be made a starter. But for this year, is he someone that the Sox could put in the big league pen this year and then try him as a starter in the minors next? Is that bad for his development? Is he even good enough to consider that? Thanks a lot.
Klaw: I don’t think he can be a starter. It’s not outrageous, but I think he’s a pen guy, and I’d do what you suggest – move him quick to AA or AAA and see what happens.

Kyle: Keith, if Dalton Jeffries can recover his health, do you think he was a steal?
Klaw: Maybe. He has a real shoulder issue, so he has to pass the physical first, and then see if the injury recurs or affects his velocity. This isn’t minor. Before that he might have been a top 10 pick, although I think that was a little rich for a smallish RHP without huge stuff.

Matt: Almarez for the Phillies said that Moniak can be a 70 defense 70 hit and hit between 15-22 home runs when he hits the big leagues. What do you think?
Klaw: Apparently I went to see the wrong kid.

Alex in Austin: With Wentz and Jones going in the 2nd, any chance they go to Cville or will they sign overslot?
Klaw: Signing. I’d bet anything those kids both had deals in place.

RollWave: Tulane alum here. Saw both Alemais (Pirates) and Rogers (Astros) were both recently taken within a few picks of each other. Any thoughts on these guys? Seems like Rogers as a defense-first catcher should at least have a chance of panning out.
Klaw: Extra guys – good shot at big leagues, doubt either becomes a regular.

John: Who the heck is Alex Call?
Klaw: He should have been the first pick so Call could have let the day begin.

Joe: Was Benson a huge reach for you?
Klaw: Sort of … for tools, body, intelligence, he’s a top 10 guy. The swing is a zero right now. They’ll have to rebuild it. They have the technology, though.

Brad: Hey Keith, long time reader and supporter of yours. I wanted to ask for advice for breaking into the baseball business. Occupying my free time researching/learning/studying baseball has made up most of my life and I think I’d be great in the biz. About a year ago, I passed on an internship with the Yankees after blindly reaching out and talking some with David Grabiner who was impressed with some of my thoughts. As baseball requires more and more of an analytics driven decision making process, would an MBA in data analytics help propel me into a good full time type of position? How would you best suggest breaking in as a mid-20 currently working in mechanical engineering?
Klaw: My understanding is that the big hiring now is people with extensive work and/or education in data mining fields – machine learning, signal processing, etc.

Justin: Where did you have Zac Gallen?
Klaw: Fourth-fifth rounds.

Josh: Any info on Mason Thompson (drafted in the 3rd by the Padres)?
Klaw: I’d been told he was a likely top ten pick for 2019 and was a difficult sign this year as a kid out with TJ who had seven-figure expectations.

Hinkie: Can Kevin Gowdy eventually be a top of the rotation pitcher, or his ceiling more of a 2 or 3.
Klaw: More like a 2/3, but still a good pick.

JG: In most of the prospect descriptions for catchers, many do not expect the actual player to stay at catcher. Is Ben Rortvedt the guy that can?
Klaw: I have been told no shot. He’s a hitter. I saw Lux this spring but not Rortvedt (I guess that was the right call since Lux went in the first).

Jacob: Scouting reports suggest Kirilloff may be a solid player but nothing spectacular. Anything in his game that suggests he could be something more?
Klaw: Power is much more. That’s your upside there.

Theo: Could Riley Pint pitch in the majors in a bullpen right now if needed? I know the Rockies don’t need him now, but if they were in a playoff hunt would that change? 102 is 102
Klaw: No. He’d walk too many guys.

addoeh: Are you just working on adrenaline at this point? When do you open a good bottle of rum and just relax?
Klaw: Adrenaline and some caffeine. Probably won’t really relax till the recaps are done this weekend.

Mike M: Luhnow takes a tall RHP with so-so velo and little projection (Whitley), a fringe prospect corner bat (Dawson), and a college catcher who can’t hit a lick (Rogers). Fair to say the Astros have underwhelmed so far?
Klaw: Whitley does not have “so-so velo.” He’s got a plus FB and flashes a plus CB. He has little projection because he’s already built like a big leaguer. I think you’re really unfair on that pick. The other two I’m with you.

Matt: I know you’re not a huge fan of player comparisons, but is Moniak’s upside something along the lines of Christian Yelich with better defense? He’s maybe the only guy I can think of in MLB with a 70 hit and 40 power.
Klaw: I think Yelich had a had a better pure hit tool at that age.

Mike: How far will Matt Krook fall ?
Klaw: Gone in the 4th. Another guy who has to pass his physical first – Miami flunked him in high school, then he had TJ.

Stephen: At what round in the draft do teams’ draft boards start to greatly diverge? That is, at what point do guys get taken that other teams aren’t in on at all? Or to put it another way, at what point does a team not get concerned at all that their next selection will be taken in the pick or two before they draft?
Klaw: I think we’re already at that point now. Probably somewhere in the third round boards really start to part where you get other teams taking guys you had in the 6-10 round range.

CJ: As a Cards fan (and a Puerto Rican) I’m ecstatic that the Cards nabbed Perez. Are you in the “he shouldn’t be rewarded with a first round pick because he cheated” camp, or the “He’s not a rich prep player like a lot of these other high schoolers and should be given the benefit of the doubt.” Thanks Keith!
Klaw: I’m in the “take the player you think is the best as long as he’s not violent or a felon” camp.

Robert: Regarding the Tigers selection of Manning. you mentioned Detroit has a history of developing players like him, tall athletic power arms. Outside of Verlander who have they developed in the minors? Thanks.
Klaw: Might have been Eric who said that. I love the pick, though. Big, athletic, up to 98, needs to switch to a traditional curveball grip from a spike. They haven’t taken anyone like him since Jacob Turner.

Aaron C.: Thanks for your “anti-lazy comp” policy, man. While I appreciate the work that MLB Network does in bringing the draft to the fans, they do quite a disservice when folks like Harold Reynolds are throwing out uninformed comps left n’ right.
Klaw: The same-race (or even guy who looks like this other guy) comps are insulting. The hell does that matter? Ray Lankford peaked as a guy with 20+ HR, 20+ SB, reaching 30 in each category at least once, with good OBPs and somewhat high K rates. I think that’s Corey Ray’s ceiling. I wouldn’t care if one of them was from Kyrgyzstan and the other from Darkest Peru.

Jay: Bo Bichette seems like a great pick at 66. Does he have highest upside of Blue Jays draft picks so far?
Klaw: Yes, that’s my favorite relative to draft position of theirs. I wonder if people worried because the brother has been so bad, and Bo used to have a terrible setup/load for his swing. He’s cleaned it up, and he’s a better athlete than Dante Jr.

James: My favorite part of the draft was when Tommy Lasorda comes out to announce the Dodgers pick, looks lost, then goes – “I’m Tommy Lasorda”. Think MLB could announce the person who was announcing the pick for the team.
Klaw: I thought he looked awful as he was helped up to the podium and started to speak so slowly, but then he cracked the “stay awake, fellas!” line like it was still 1980. I’m not even a fan of Lasorda’s, but that was a great moment.

Chris: Kevin Maitan would’ve been selected at what pick last night?
Klaw: Not very high. 16 years old, never faced any real competition. How do you compare that to Moniak or Rutherford?

FG: From what you hear, is there any concern that the Yankees won’t sign Rutherford? Or will they need to manage pool money properly . Thanks for your work Klaw.
Klaw: My guess is they’ll go under slot a few times and work it out.

James: Whenever a tall pitcher was picked in the first round the analysts kept saying that tall pitchers take more time in the minors because their deliveries are harder to repeat/control. Is this true?
Klaw: I think that’s true for VERY tall pitchers – 6’6″ and up, say. And the pool of those guys isn’t that big to begin with.

Amy: Wait, why does Rutherford’s age give him leverage?
Klaw: Because he’ll be eligible for the draft again in 2018 if he goes to college, rather than 2019 for most HS kids.

Troubled (Cincinnati): I see why you don’t like doing comps. Ctrent had a great tweet last night about MLB’s coverage, to hear the non-scouts (Mayo, Callis, Manual) talk, every player drafted last night was either an All-Star or a Hall of Famer. The coverage was hard to stomach because of it.
Klaw: That’s an inherent problem with any league broadcasting its own draft, unfortunately. For example, Sanchez and Carlson were both reaches in the first round. Would MLB be OK with Mayo saying, “that’s a huge reach,” or, worse, “I think that’s a terrible pick?” Probably not, and it’s their right to say, hey, this is a big marketing event for us too, let’s not bash the product. So I hear you, and to some extent I agree with you (this ain’t Lake Wobegon and these kids aren’t all above average), but there’s a COI here that’s not going away.

Adam: Would you say that two-sport guys, such as Matt Manning, have higher untapped potential as they’ve not solely focussed on baseball year round? As I Tigs fan I was expecting a hard throwing pitcher, I’m not sure if I should be excited about Manning or not.
Klaw: I think the new thinking is that their arms will be in better shape due to the long layoff from pitching. For position players i’m not as sold on the idea.

Jerry: Do you think Jared Horn priced himself out of the first couple of rounds, or were there some performance issues that have led to him slipping closer and closer to being in Berkeley for school later this summer?
Klaw: I think the money was one thing and the delivery (max effort, reliever all the way) may have been another. Some teams were just out on him for the second reason.

Josh: Who is Joseph Lucchesi? Preller seems to be making a lot of under-slot picks. Where is all of that money going?
Klaw: That’s Joey Lucchesi, who was worn out like a damn dishrag at their conference tournament after leading D1 in strikeouts during the season. Quality senior sign. I hope we’re not lamenting an injury to him a year from now. Probably helps go to pay Lawson and Thompson. I wonder if Lake Bachar is a deal too – junior but D3 kid without projection.

Nathan: I enjoy reading your work Keith. Are Robert Tyler and Ben Bowden starters at the major league level or better suited for bullpen roles?
Klaw: I think you send both out as starters, but if you asked me to bet $100 on each I’d say relief for both.

Joe: Not sure if you saw but Dylan Bundy hit 97 on his fastball and was sitting at 95. Reason to be optimistic or is there still too many unknowns at this point?
Klaw: He has calcification in his shoulder. We’re a long way from being optimistic on that disaster.

BK: Bichette stated in an intvw last night that he turned down 4 offers prior to the Jays because he didn’t like the fit. Have you heard similar? That seems quite odd to me.
Klaw: I had heard interest in him starting in the 30s, but don’t know of any specific deals. It’s not like he grew up poor so he had that luxury.

Joe: Hey Keith, How much longer until Ray Montgomery is a GM? His past 2 drafts in Milwaukee have been excellent and he seems to be well regarded in MLB circles. Thanks
Klaw: I thought he’d get more of a shot at the job in Milwaukee, but that process appeared to be over before it started. He should be on a lot of teams’ short lists for the next opening.

Joe: Knowing what you know would you have taken Groome with a top 3 pick?
Klaw: Yes, I would have. I might have handled him differently post-draft than other prospects, but so what? If you find a talented kid with a drinking problem, but no history of violence, abuse, destructive behavior, etc., you might still draft and sign him, but have EA people in place with him, avoid certain environments, etc. That’s the cost of developing players to me.

Harvey: Do you think that 40 rounds every year is too many? Must be like throwing darts after 10 rounds, right?
Klaw: I stop paying attention after round 11. Really after the top 5 rounds the significant prospects are mostly gone – players who emerge after that, like Goldschmidt, were known but just underrated by the entire industry – and round 11 matters because it’s the first round after the bonus pool rounds.

Tom: What’s wrong with the word “crappy”?
Klaw: If I say a draft is “crappy,” imagine the reaction from that scouting director or GM (I know most of them well) when he sees that? Hi, yeah, I did call your draft crappy, but I meant it in the nicest possible way…

Brian: Keith, back to the character question. This is not a criticism, I do understand your answer; but how is it better to say a kid has character issues and then just leave it there? It’s not your responsibility but people’s minds’ due tend to run to worst case and they could be thinking the kid is a Johnny Maziel level type alcoholic/woman abuser when it could be he shows up late a lot and may be a little lazy. I guess the question is, why say anything at all?
Klaw: How do I explain why a Jason Groome goes 12th when he came into the spring at 1 on most lists (mine included)?

Steve: Thoughts on Jordan Sheffield? No 2/3 starter ceiling or more of a power reliever?
Klaw: Power reliever for me. Short RHP with lightning arm but lacks command or plane for starting.

KoolMoeRip: Thoughts on O’s draft. Liking Hays in the 3rd a lot-looks like good value
Klaw: 3rd/4th rounder there. Appropriate spot for him.

Alex: A friend who is a novice baseball fan asked me about Perez. Without giving him details on scouting grades, etc.. Is Lindor a decent comp?
Klaw: No, Lindor was a WAY more advanced hitter at the same age. Plus Lindor had 80 makeup and Delvin has not 80 makeup.

Brian: is Bobby Dalbec going to be able hit professional pitching? seems like a bad pick for Boston.
Klaw: Where they took him (4th) was fair. Huge power, maybe 80 power, too much swing and miss. Fourth round expected value is near zero, so rolling the dice on a kid who might only have a 5% chance of clicking but is a solid #6 hitter if he does work out is reasonable. Also, while I like some players more than others, it’s a little hard to make a “bad” pick by this point in the draft.

Kyle: Odd question but a 40 round draft would by definition at add at least 40 new players to an org. Does this mean +/-40 other players are usually out of a job every year around this time?
Klaw: Not an odd question but bear in mind lots of those picks don’t sign. I think usually 800-900 guys sign a year? Mayo or Callis would actually be better people to ask on that. But those signees fill out the GCL/AZL rosters and some of the short-season rosters.

Bob: Then I assume you would have been more vague about referencing Perez’s PED use if it had not already leaked all over place.
Klaw: I was still vague even when I knew for a fact that he’d tested positive. I still know more about it than I’ve said (as does everyone else, I’m not that special). But I spoke to our news desk about how to couch it and that’s what you’re getting from me.

Harrisburg Hal: Good rums…I’ve had a couple of the Appleton Estate varieties…what is your favorite (not more than $50/bottle)?
Klaw: I have Brugal Viejo in the house right now and it’s a damn fine rum. It will be used this weekend.

Klaw: That’s all for this week as I have a lot of writing to do, but thank you all for the questions today and yesterday, for reading all of my content and Eric’s too, and for your support and readership throughout the year. Look for those team by team draft recaps over the weekend.

Klawchat, 6/9/16.

Happy Draft Day! I have an updated first-round mock and an updated Big Board for Insiders.

Sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: On this battlefield, no one wins. Klawchat.

Ted: I know you’ve been concerned with Lewis’ swing and miss. Do you see a mechanical fix for it? I read that he never played baseball exclusively until Mercer. Is there a thought that he’s raw and could improve contact?
Klaw: Some is mechanical – you have to get rid of that high leg kick – and some is approach/pitch recognition. And he hasn’t faced good competition this spring, only last summer, so that’s an added concern.

Ryan: Victor Roache comp for Kyle Lewis. Legitimate comparison or a racially charged comp?
Klaw: Poor comparison but based on more than race – both Georgia kids at non-major D1 programs facing lower-caliber competition, both power over hit. Lewis is a better athlete and Roache’s swing was a disaster, full backside collapse with uphill path, no shot to hit a breaking ball. Ranked him as a third rounder on draft day, called it a huge overdraft when the Brewers took him. Lewis is a lot better than that.

Dave from Port Hope: Could injury concerns let Quantrill fall to Blue Jays at 21?
Klaw: Not about injury concerns but cost. He was 1-1 good before he had TJ.

Nick: Man, if Moniak had power and/or a projectable frame, he’d be an easy 1-1. How likely is it that he’ll hit more than 10 home runs a year in the bigs?
Klaw: Right now, current swing and body, below 50% chance of 10+ homers. No stride, narrow stance, short swing.

Banksy_: Is there any feasible way Groome gets to #8, and with the large bonus pool could the Padres be the floor for the HS lefty?
Klaw: Feasible way, yes. Padres would strongly consider at 8.

Nick: If Drew Mendoza doesn’t sign, could he potentially be in the mix for 1-1 in 2019?
Klaw: Not for me.

Jonathan: Assuming the Phillies go below slot at 1.1, who do you expect they will target at 2.1?
Klaw: It’s about who falls – for example, the Braves supposedly wanted Groome to fall to 40, but that’s not going to happen. So maneuvering doesn’t necessarily get you what you want. I think Kevin Gowdy gets down that far, and Joey Wentz likely gets down that far, but I wouldn’t want to stake my career on a specific guy being there at 42.

Dale: it seems that Jason Groome is falling out of favor? What do you think the reason is? I’m hoping he falls to A’s and they pick him over Nick Senzel. I’m thinking it’s not time for A’s to play it safe.
Klaw: Don’t think that’s quite true, but ongoing makeup questions and high bonus expectations have caused some teams up top to turn away from him. A’s could still take him but I think they take Senzel if there.

JQ in the hospital: If the Phillies pass on moniak with the first pick, what are the chances he falls to the Sox at 12?
Klaw: Based on what I’ve heard in the last few days, zero chance. Rutherford more likely to get there.

Nick: I’ve seen several sources say Seth Beer would have gone top 15 had he not graduated early. But other places didn’t rank him as highly as other prep bats. Where would he have gone if he stayed in HS?
Klaw: Absolutely not top 15. That’s nonsense. He would have mashed as a HS senior and been discounted heavily for being nearly 20.

John: Since you have Corey Ray and Jason Groome one two on your board does that mean regardless of who is drafting you would recommend Ray over Groome?
Klaw: Yes, that’s correct.

Andrew: Over/under: Angels are drafting their top 2 prospects today.
Klaw: There’s almost no doubt about it.

Kerry: Thoughts on Tyler Jay’s season so far? Is he the most promising arm in the Twins’ system?
Klaw: Been outstanding. Still amazes me that Illinois thought they were better off using him 1-2 innings a week than 6.

Banksy_: Who’s falling harder today, Delvin Perez or the creationist on your twitter page?
Klaw: The creationist. He devolved into fallacies and circular reasoning.

Keith: Your big board always seems to weight HS players with potential (and presumably a higher failure rate) more heavily than college (high floor) guys. Do most star players generally get drafted out of high school? I imagine professional training from the age of 18 has to be a big boost in development – but obviously, less of a “sure thing” than taking a 21 year old.
Klaw: That’s not true – it’s only true when that’s the draft class. My 2011 board was more college heavy and right now I think my 2017 board will be too.

Troubled (Cincinnati): No prospect is perfect, how much of Puk’s relative lack of athleticism and health issues a concern? Enough to push him out of the Top 4?
Klaw: Health issues? I know about delivery questions and lack of athleticism, but I think 4 is his floor.

scottie: Wil Myers as you predicted, is having a pretty good year so far. Do you think he might make the All Star Game/ Home Run Derby?
Klaw: Probably because San Diego is hosting the game.

Mark: Heard some at the “World Leader” suggesting that Puig could be on the way out of LA due to his unwillingness to be a grownup, opinion?
Klaw: His trade value is at an all-time low. They could have had the sun and moon for him 18 months ago, but now that everyone has seen he can’t turn on good fastballs any more, what’s his worth?

Mike: Non-draft question. Any reason to move Machado back to third? My untrained eye thinks he has played pretty well defensively at shortstop. I guess the only reason would be the Orioles don’t have another third baseman?
Klaw: No, especially since that bat at shortstop makes him a potential MVP.

Jon: Other than Rutherford, do you know of anyone else the Phillies may be trying to float down to 42?
Klaw: Rutherford is not getting to 42 either, according to #Sources.

Philip: Have you heard Padres connected to Nolan Jones at 24-25?
Klaw: Not especially but I know they like him and saw him particularly good the day I was there.

Zorak: What’s your take on Matt Thaiss and his ability to stay at Catcher? Is he an overdraft for the Mets in the first round if he’s destined to be a corner guy long term?
Klaw: Not a catcher. May not even get to their pick at 19. He can hit, one of the better hit tools in the college crop.

billjames: I see draft COVERAGE begins a 6et., But what time is the actual first pick happening? Trying to decide if I need to take off early. Thank KlAw
Klaw: 7 pm start, 7:05 first pick is in.

JG: Not that they should attempt this, but would there be a benefit to the Twins drafting Manning at #15, not being able to sign him, and then having a potentially similar draft pick next year in a “better” draft?
Klaw: This comes up every year and every year my answer is the same: No, it’s a bad idea. A player today is worth more than a player tomorrow, and that draft pick next year might be the next scouting director’s or the next GM’s. Don’t get cute – take the best player and sign him.

JDB: Where do you think Brandon Mcillwain would have ended up in this draft? How about Chad Holbrook throwing a FR 123 pitches up 20 runs.
Klaw: Top 25 pick. Don’t think I saw that but not surprised.

JR: What happened to Ronald Washington? His reclassification to 2016 was fairly major news, but I haven’t seen him mentioned in any draft previews or rankings.
Klaw: Just not that good. You could still hear him taken late tonight I guess but I don’t expect it.

Jon Weisman: Keith, I was at Stanford for the 1987 and 1988 College World Series and covered the 1988 title (with freshman Mike Mussina) in Omaha for the school paper. It was a thrilling time, and my respect for Mark Marquess then was unlimited. To be fair, I’m not tuned into the program nearly as well now, but without discounting what he accomplished, my reaction to his retirement news was relief. They’ve have very limited postseason success and questionable use of pitching arms for a long time now, it seems. Do you agree, and do you have a view of what can/should happen with the program going forward?
Klaw: I agree wholeheartedly. He has been a serial abuser of arms for about 20 years now, absolutely wearing out John Hudgins in Omaha around 2003, and his hitting ‘philosophy’ has ruined a lot of good hitting prospects by wrecking their swings. We’re talking about one of the best academic schools in the country, one of a very short list of great academic schools with major D1 baseball programs, and they’re the absolute last place I’d send a good high school prospect. They should look outside and consider guys from pro ball who understand the duality of college baseball – win and develop. I thought Ryan Garko was the perfect heir apparent but I guess he and Marquess didn’t work out.

Hey Mickey you’re so…: I know your mock draft is based upon what you hear from scouts, front offices, etc. and you’ve had Puk as the #1 pick for a few weeks now up until today. Can you give us any specific insight as to what you’ve learned that caused you to change this to Moniak?
Klaw: As you said, it’s what I heard last night. But I heard again this morning it might still be Lewis. The Phillies maintain that they have not come to a final decision yet. I believe them.

Kevin: You said on Twitter that you think the Padres’ return for Shields was good enough. Was that before or after you knew the exact $$ going back? It seems to me that for chipping in $31M they should’ve received a better prospect package back.
Klaw: Money was sunk anyway and he has not performed well at all even prior to last night.

EC: Any additional thoughts on Jordan McFarland, who you said could go to Nats at some point during the draft? Overslot deal?
Klaw: Not even a consideration for my top 100.

Jose G.: Wouldn’t the Braves be better off taking their top player on the board at 3 and trying to get Ian Anderson to slide to pick 40?
Klaw: He’s not sliding to pick 40. Zero shot. It’s perverse but actually more reasonable to take the lesser guy first (Dozier) and sign him under slot to pay the better guy later (Manaea).

EC: Remember last time a NJ HSer fell?
Klaw: Yes, but that was rather different. Trout was 17, never had a single makeup concern, and was signable everywhere.

Seattle: CJ Chatham a first rounder tonight?
Klaw: No, I don’t see that. I think he’s a third/fourth round talent. Not a true shortstop, not enough bat for second.

BD: How much of Funkhouser’s links to the Nats are the natural Boras/Nats link, and how much is it that he deserves to go around 28/29 or early 2nd?
Klaw: Doesn’t deserve to go tonight, but everyone’s assuming he’ll go to a team that likes Boras clients, such as the Nats. The running gag is that they’ll announce his signing the day they announce a Bryce Harper extension.

Nick: Have you heard the Mets in on any prep bats? Any chance Rutherford gets to them at 19?
Klaw: They’d consider him for sure but it’s very unlikely he gets there. Haven’t heard them on Jones. Don’t see another worthy prep bat there. Too high for Lowe.

Ryan Green: Thoughts on Gabby Guerrero, Jamie Westbrook and Mitch Haniger in AA Southern League?
Klaw: Fringe guys at best.

Alex: I think it would be an outstanding first round if the cardinals got Thaiss, Quantrill, and Craig. Is it possible? Please say yes
Klaw: No shot Thaiss gets to them.

Harrisburg Hal: Will you be chatting again tomorrow? It’s sort of become a draft tradition for me to look for your Friday chat where you “mention every team” that had a pick.
Klaw: Yes, that’s the plan at least.

James: Do you think putting cream in coffee are as egregious as putting ketchup on a good steak?
Klaw: I drink good coffee black without sweetener. If it’s bad coffee, I’ll doctor it to cover up the off taste.

Brett: What do you think of Anfernee Grier? Can he stick in center, and is he a .260 hitter with 20 homers?
Klaw: Sticks in center but his bat was exposed this spring once SEC play started. You can’t be that lost against breaking stuff and project as a big leaguer regular; picking him is a bet you can develop his pitch recognition, especially since he’s young for a college junior.

Rutherford, NJ: Hi Keith. I live five minutes from Secaucus. Is there any way I can attend the draft?
Klaw: I asked about this but it is closed to the public.

Drew: Errol Robinson is drafted in the ___ round. JB Woodman is drafted in the ___ round?
Klaw: 5th, 2nd. I’m not on either guy. Woodman has about a 3 hit tool. Robinson didn’t hit at all this spring and his fielding got worse.

Tim: Hey Keith, thanks for all your hard work the last couple months. You said earlier today Puk isn’t particularly polished and thus he’ll need a few years to hone his delivery – any insight to why the Reds would take the risk of an unpolished pitcher over a quality bat with a higher floor (like Ray or Senzel)? Is it simply just: Puk could be a dominant lefty starter – and those guys don’t grow on trees?
Klaw: Yes, that’s it, and who’s going to argue with taking a 6’6″ college lefty who’s 93-97? It’s as defensible a pick as there is.

addoeh: Why did Constantinople get the works?
Klaw: That’s nobody’s business but Andy Dirks’.

Dan: Is Almora behind the likes of Pillar and Kiermaier in any athletic/speed sense that could cap his defensive ceiling? I know he’s not especially fast, but I’m not sure how elite their speed is.
Klaw: He’s a below-average runner but has outstanding reads and instincts in center. He’s at least a 6 defender, probably a 7.

Banksy_: Give me a guy you really like outside the top 100 that has a chance to be picked higher than his ranking. I really like Jimmy Lambert, P Fresno State
Klaw: If I liked a guy that much he’d be on the 100. There were not 100 guys I felt good about this year.

Zika Control: I have a drainage ditch behind my house that’s full of water and has been for the 7 months we lived there. What should I do, contact the county for skeeters or take it upon myself to treat in. my wifes prego and I have a young girl.
Klaw: My faith in local government is low enough that I’d probably tackle it myself.

Matt: if you had to put a probability of Corey Ray going 1-1,
Klaw: I think it’s 5%.

addoeh: Cooper Johnson more likely to be drafted tomorrow instead of tonight?
Klaw: seems about right.

Corey: Possibility that Swihart’s ankle injury could keep him out the rest of the season. The Sox have messed this up pretty badly right ? Lost a trade chip, stunted his catcher development, lessened his value and lost his bat for some considerable time either way.
Klaw: Didn’t like the position juggling but can’t really blame him for the injury, can we?

Gary: Which Norcal prep comes off the board first: Jared Horn or Dylan Carlson?
Klaw: Horn unless he’s just priced himself out. I could see Atlanta popping him at 40.

Nick: Any reason you have the Mets passing on Will Craig twice after it seeming like they were all over him the last few weeks?
Klaw: Because they like other players more.

Sean: I noticed you’ve been reading short stories lately. Have you delved into any of the older masters of the class like Cheever? What about George Saunders?
Klaw: Cheever’s collection is on my to-be-read shelf. Read Tenth of December by Saunders last year; it was solid, not sure I’d rush for another collection of his.

Sean: There’s a lot of hand-wringing going on about use of lasers to position outfielders. What exactly is the problem, are people concerned with accidental retinal damage or just scared off by the futuristic sound of the word laser?
Klaw: I don’t see the problem. I guess it’s the debate between “if it’s not explicitly prohibited, it’s allowed” and “if it’s not explicitly allowed, it’s cheating.”

Corey: If not 100, how many guys in this draft do you see as being solid picks for where they will be taken?
Klaw: Based on the history of the draft, it’s probably 20-25, not considering guys who get a cup of coffee out of a late round (which would be a solid pick for the spot but only of academic interest to most of you).

Nick: Just looking at what Will Craig did to the ACC, I’m surprised he is only 45th on your big board. Is it just because is is 1B only?
Klaw: Plays 3b now, likely moves to 1b, didn’t face much good pitching at all this year, was awful on the Cape.

Vander: What are the chances the Reds pick either Rutherford or Moniak?
Klaw: Haven’t heard them with Rutherford once all spring.

Caleb: Best board game to introduce to a wife who doesn’t care for board games?
Klaw: Lost Cities and Jaipur are two good, light, two-player games.

Brian: At one point should someone seek help for anxiety? If you know you have strong anxiety but can manage it to the point of having a happy/successful life should you just keep living with it?
Klaw: If it’s hurting your quality of life in some way, get help. Therapy alone could make a real difference, and unlike medication it has no side effects (aside from cost, I suppose).

John (MN): Non draft question. Did the Twins really make a bad decision on Ortiz over a decade ago based on available data? Or are all the local columnists harping on it this week (Boston in town) exhibiting hindsight bias?
Klaw: I was with Toronto at the time and we thought it was a pennywise pound-foolish decision: they saw him as slightly overpriced, but maybe didn’t consider that he might have untapped value.

Banksy_: Whats Brandon Marsh’s range? top of round 2 reasonable?
Klaw: Yes, somewhere in the second is about right.

Phil: Hi Keith, long-time fan — you and Buster make paying for Insider a necessity. I’m a management consultant at a Big 4 looking to transition into working in baseball (I used to work for an agent in school, but he’s out of the game). Is networking the best way to get my foot in the door? Seems like a pretty tough nut to crack. Thanks and enjoy the draft!
Klaw: Networking is probably the only way. If you don’t know someone or have a connection, or didn’t play, it’s awfully hard to get started.

Jason Reynolds: I’m about 65% of the way through the opposite of a short story, Gravity’s Rainbow. I know you’ve commented on it in the past but I’m wondering have you read it and how long did it take you?
Klaw: I read it, took about three weeks, did not enjoy any aspect of it.

David: Not a draft question, but a scouting/mechanics one. Is it just me, or does Wil Myers barely use his lower half of his body at the plate? Is it just all upper body strength? That can’t be a great approach, right?
Klaw: Doesn’t use his legs enough at all, but he’s very strong, and there have been successful power hitters who’ve done that, like Frank Thomas.

Steve: I get that the Braves, Reds, and Phillies don’t know who exactly will fall to them. But it has to be terrifying to take a guy who isn’t your BPA at 1-3 in order to save cash for whatever happens to be there in the 40s. Seems like an extreme risk, and makes me suspicious that they have deals worked out with some of the guys they want in the 40s.
Klaw: I’m sure they have discussed the parameters of deals, but the problem is no one can guarantee that Joey Bagodonuts will last till pick 40 – for the Phillies, they have to get any such player past three Padres picks, three Dodgers picks, two Reds picks, and two Atlanta picks.

Marcus A.: Mariners have been tied to pretty much only college players. % chance that one of the top college bats (Ray, Senzel, Lewis) falls to them?
Klaw: As of right now I think zero percent chance.

Vinny: In response to your answer that only 20-25 guys end up truly being great picks….in other words, about 96% of all players drafted are essentially roster fillers.
Klaw: That’s how it ends up in time, but that’s certainly not the idea on draft day.

Carlos: I’ve seen you mention that Senzel has some pretty serious raw power that doesn’t show in games because of his approach. If that power were unlocked, what kind of player would we be looking at?
Klaw: A borderline MVP candidate. Average fielder at 3b with avg and power? Maybe an actual MVP candidate.

AN: Non-draft question about two Mets prospects if you don’t mind. Vinny Siena and David Thompson seem to be doing pretty well in A ball. Case of them being a little older for the league or are either worth getting a little excited about?
Klaw: Yes, 22 in low-A is ridiculous, no reason for them to be there. The Mets are weird about holding players back.

addoeh: Belated birthday greetings. You’re 21 in base 21. What was the filling in your birthday pie?
Klaw: Actually we went out to Cocina Lolo in Wilmington. I had ceviche, a pork carnitas taco (my daughter loves them but never finishes the plate of three), some elote, and a churro with caramel, ice cream, and hazelnuts.

Eric: Is Gavin Lux in the mix for the White Sox at 10?
Klaw: I have not heard this at all.

Chris: I know he is a ways off, but have you had a chance to see Dylan Cease pitch? Sounding like he has the potential to be a top of the rotation arm.
Klaw: He was on my top 100 this winter for this precise reason.

J: I’m getting alerts on my mlb at bat app that Joe DiMaggio has a hit streak going. How many games do you think he can keep it going?
Klaw: I doubt he can get past about 56 games.

Sean: Just saw on the twitter that Taillon has been optioned back to AAA. What could possibly be the reason for this?
Klaw: Off day Monday, won’t need a fifth starter again till the 18th, more time to decide whether to bump Nicasio to the pen.

Greyson: Has Derek Hill shown anything since being drafted to suggest they he will hit in the majors? His stat line suggests no, but that’s obviously not the whole story.
Klaw: Swing is still good, but he’s just not getting stronger like he should. He’s also 20 years old with only 600 pro PA, so I’m not giving up on him.

Ken: Probability of the A’s taking Groome?
Klaw: If Senzel is gone, high. If Senzel is there, zero.

Ebeneezer: What do you find more exciting: the buildup to the draft, or that the draft will eventually be over and life will return to normal?
Klaw: The latter. This draft has been particularly tiring because of the lack of a clear 1-1 or even top 2-3 guys.

James: Why is Trea Turner still in Triple A, keith
Klaw: Because Danny Espinosa’s .276 OBP (without IBB) is too valuable to bench.

Doug: Time to pay attention to Michael Gettys? Or just the result of repeating low A Fort Wayne?
Klaw: Repeating the level and still striking out a quarter of the time.

Ryan: Delvin Perez – How does the PED test result affect the scouting reports?
Klaw: The biggest concern is the newfound power he showed this spring. I don’t see how that would affect our valuation of his defense. I could see an argument that he might not be a 7 runner when clean, but I think that’s less compelling. The hit tool is what it is – I have never seen any real argument that steroids changed that.

Ty: From time to time I see you make somewhat obscure hair metal refrences. Did you really like that shit?
Klaw: As a teenager? Of course. Everyone around me did. Hair metal and strong island hip hop.

Ben: I know you’ve been high Austin Meadows, is this torrid streak in AA mark his ascendency to the top of prospect lists?
Klaw: Seems like he’s finally healthy after the eye injury, so yes, I’m buying.

Marcus A.: So no Senzel, Lewis or Ray for the Mariners, any chance they would take Blake Rutherford if he lasts until 11? I know that Justin Dunn is exciting in his own way, I just balk at his limited track record as a starter.
Klaw: That doesn’t bother me. He developed pretty late. I guess you could argue he’s more enticing for having been lightly used.

Nick, Boston: If Perez haddnt failed his test and didnt start to drop, where would he rank on your big board? Just on pure talent/potential alone
Klaw: He was third on my previous board.

Quentin: At which pick do you predict that you will hear the first name that you don’t recognize at all? On a similar note, has there ever been a big leaguer that you were completely unaware of until you heard his name on draft day?
Klaw: Big leaguer? I don’t think so. Today, probably somewhere in the middle of the second round. Maybe sandwich, if someone cuts a deal.

Tim: Know you mentioned Tyler Mahle (not close to your top 100) as a potential dark horse – that looks like a smart choice, no? How many 21 yr olds from the 7th round get to AA this fast?
Klaw: I thought he was still in high-A, but yeah, he’s progressed extremely well, great pick by the Reds there.

Karl: Do you see David Dahl being an All-Star level player or will he be a “nice” player with decent numbers mostly inflated by the home ballpark?
Klaw: Closer to the former. All-Star ability, not an All-Star approach at the plate, and of course he’s had a lot of unfortunate injury troubles.

BD in ATL: Over/under on # of picks you get right? 5? Seems like it is almost an impossible task.
Klaw: My daughter asked me this last night. I told her even 1/4 right (so about 8) would be a huge win. I am not expecting to get to that this year.

Banksy_: How many overslot deals can the Padres afford given their budget. I know it depends on how far over they go, but could you see them going with overslot guys at 8, 24, 25 then taking under- and senior signs?
Klaw: They could, although I think they may mix in one slot guy in those top three.

Nick: Any reports on how Nimmo has looked this season? Stat line looks better, but hard to assess playing in LV.
Klaw: No reports, as I’m still in draft mode, but he’s basically the same guy hitting away from Vegas – no power, and can’t play CF, so extra OF.

Tim: Good chance that 1-1 will get leaked before 7pm tonight? Gotta assume the Phillies get a deal done before then (and probably the Reds too).
Klaw: Yes, although it might be at 6:55. We’ll all find out – stuff like that tends not to stay secret.

JP: How does Colby Bortles project as a draft prospect?
Klaw: Not well. I saw Ole Miss two games in Hoover but there’s not much there for pro ball. Good college team, but those two don’t always mean the same thing.

Geno: If the Pirates do draft Burdi, would you expect to see him in the bullpen by the end of the year?
Klaw: Yes, but I think they pass and he goes to the White Sox.

Sean: Do you have any thoughts on Y Ventura? Should the Royals try to ship him out or try to fix him?
Klaw: I think his act is tired. Cut the crap and pitch better. If he doesn’t show results, the Royals need to shop him or try him in the bullpen.

Sean: I’ve been following baseball for a decade and have no idea what slot/underslot/overslot means at all. Is there a website with a simple primer on how it all works?
Klaw: Each pick in the draft now has an assigned slot value in dollars. MLB’s draft order page shows them. Each team then has a total bonus pool amount for all of its picks in the top ten rounds combined. If you go over slot in one pick, you’ll have to go under slot somewhere else to avoid going over your total pool amount and incurring penalties. Up to 5% over is just a tax. More than that and you lose your first pick next year, which no one has done to date. (It would make sense to do so when you planned to surrender one or two high picks to sign free agents the subsequent offseason.) A player may take an under slot deal when he’s drafted higher than expected, or is a college senior, or lacks a serious college commitment. A player may demand an over slot deal when he’s got strong leverage, like a commitment to a great baseball or academic school, or when he’ll be eligible in two years rather than three, like Blake Rutherford will be.

Chris: You talk about music quite a bit and profess to be a fan of heavy metal, but I rarely if ever see you mention bands such as Avenged Sevenfold, Sevendust, Trivium, Five Finger Death Punch and the like. Curious if you have any thoughts on the current state of the hard rock genre.
Klaw: Not a fan of any A7F, Sevendust, or my God that is such a stupid name. Trivium’s not bad, just a little clinical for my tastes.

Geno: You were understandably reluctant to put Taillon on your 100 at the start of the year. Would he be there now? Would he be ahead of Glasnow?
Klaw: Yes, Taillon was on my top 25 update two weeks ago, still behind Glasnow due to ceiling but more major-league ready.

Jason Reynolds: He’s not a clear 1-1 guy but Puk sure looks the part. Dang he’s big
Klaw: Yes, which I think is part of the appeal, but also could be part of the risk – those are some long levers to coordinate and his lower and upper halves are not always in sync, which is why his fastball lacks good plane despite his height and extension.

Larry: Please clarify your concern about overuse of amateur pitchers–do you contend that the pitcher’s prospects for a college/professional career are irrelevant to whether the use is abuse? I suggest that an amateur with no prospect of pitching at the next level should be treated differently–i.e., chance to win high school state title or advance in college playoffs is worth the marginal additional risk of injury. FYI: I’m 41 and my arm hurts sometimes, but the pain is worth what caused it.
Klaw: A non-prospect’s ligaments are unaware of his non-prospect status. He can still suffer serious injury, require surgery, need expensive and time-consuming rehab, and encounter complications. (We shouldn’t treat surgery so cavalierly; you can go in for a routine operation and walk out with a MRSA infection.) These are very real consequences that are independent of whether the kid intends to pitch again after the current game or season.

nfh: Avery Tuck – star potential if everything goes right?
Klaw: Hard to see that. He’s just a good athlete, very little present feel for the game. Let him go to college and see if he develops as a player.

Joey Bagodonuts: Every year in these chats you mention me getting drafted, and every year my phone remains silent for 3 straight days. Maybe this will be the year!!!
Klaw: We’ll all be pulling for you, Joey.

Klaw: That’s all for today’s chat, but I will try to chat tomorrow around the same time. Look for me in the background on MLB Network’s draft coverage tonight – I’m going to try to make Jim Callis crack a smile – and of course on Twitter and on ESPN.com with reactions over the course of the evening. Thanks again for all of your questions!

Klawchat, 6/3/16.

Starting at 1 pm today. Questions go in the frame below, NOT in the comments.

Sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: You’d better learn your lesson well. Klawchat.

TJ: Im new to this, so I do not know if you have answered this before; but with John Coppolella and his endless pursuit of pitching, in your opinion what is the chance the braves end up going Groome or Pint?
Klaw: I have a mock up today that has them taking Groome, but I know they are also seriously considering several college bats. I don’t think they have decided, as you might be implying, that they’re taking an arm no matter what.

Chris: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats. Does Harrison Bader’s performance in Double A, coupled with last year’s performance in A ball, earn him a spot in top 100 lists if they were rewritten today?
Klaw: Not on mine. Can’t speak to anyone else’s.

Nick: Seth Beer slashed .372/.532/.686 with 16 bombs. More importantly, he struck out 24 times compared to 57 walks. Is he a (very) early 1-1 candidate for 2018?
Klaw: I’d call him a high first-round candidate. Don’t see a lot of bat-only corner guys going 1-1. The last college outfielder to go 1-1 was Darin Erstad, a centerfielder (Beer is not), in 1995. Pat Burrell was 1-1 in 1998 but was drafted as a 3b, or at least had been one. I don’t know about Rick Monday in 1965 but since then there hasn’t been a college LF or RF going 1st overall.

Justin: I know you have mocked a HS for the Jays in some of your mocks but there seems to be a sense that Shapiro wants to go the “safe” college route? Have you heard the Jays prefer college guys over HS guys and does this follow a typical Shapiro draft strategy?
Klaw: No I have not heard that. If I had, I would have had them taking a college player.

Anonymous: Haven’t heard much about Anfernee Grier but he’s been projected to be at least a sandwich round pick for months. Seems toolsy & hit well at Auburn. What do you have on him?
Klaw: Stopped hitting so well once SEC conference play began. Can’t recognize breaking stuff at all. Good athlete, only 20, still a lot of upside there, but he’s not a very advanced hitter.

Cape Cod: Beede a 1-hitter yesterday. Any change in your evaluation or does he still have FB command issues
Klaw: The 1-hitter doesn’t change anything (one game couldn’t do that). He still has command issues, and while the velocity’s back because he’s not throwing sinkers any more, he’s also a bit of a flyball guy now.

Dan: Hey Keith – is this what you thought Brandon Belt would eventually become? He seems to have really changed his approach this year. Strikeouts are way down, walks are way up. Maybe he’s not eating at Olive Garden as much…
Klaw: Whatever he’s eating I wouldn’t change it. This is the player I always thought he’d be. I had him as a top 20 prospect at one point because I thought he’d have patience and power and play at least average defense at first.

Dan: I seem to recall you had good things to say about Austin Slater at the time of the draft. He’s splitting time at LF and CF. What’s his MLB outlook? The stats look good, but he also wasn’t young for AA.
Klaw: I thought he could hit, then he didn’t hit that well last year and didn’t look good in Fall League. If this little power spike continues, I’ll buy into him as a regular.

Anonymous: Keith, What are your thoughts on taking TJ patients in early rounds (1-3)? Someone like Kyle Serrano could be an upside play for a team with multiple picks searching for a slight injury discount
Klaw: I have no issue with taking TJ guys that early, but Serrano is a 6′ RHP who doesn’t throw strikes. That’s not the guy I’d take. Quantrill, sure. Luzardo, perhaps. Those guys might be impact starters.

Joseph: If vaccines don’t cause injuries, why is there a vaccine court?
Klaw: Because lawyers. Vaccines are not very profitable for pharmaceutical companies, and the threat of lawsuits – which are seldom decided on the basis of science – in the 1980s meant we might not have any companies willing to manufacture vaccines. Congress set up what is essentially a no-fault vaccine ‘court’ to compensate people who claimed they were injured by vaccines (with a non-scientific standard of evidence) and then granted manufacturers immunity from lawsuits. The move has likely saved millions of lives, because otherwise vaccines would either have become scarce or become much more expensive.

Brian: In regards to Jeff Bannister’s refusal to play Joey Gallo over Prince Fielder last week and his apparent determination to ride his best 4 bullpen arms into the ground before the All-Star break, are we watching Ron Washington 2.0 (i.e. I don’t care what the stats say, those are my guys).
Klaw: I doubt he does that without some kind of consent from the front office. As a group, the Rangers don’t appear ready to give up on Fielder, even though he appears to be done.

Chip: For lunch today I’m having grilled cheese (American cheese on white bread) and Oreos all in your honor. #culinartist
Klaw: God I hope the Oreos are not actually in the grilled cheese.

Steve: Should I have any confidence that the Phillies will get an overslot-ish type of guy at #42? I wasn’t convinced the last regime really understood the system.
Klaw: That’s their plan. Whether it works depends a bit on who falls to that spot, which I’m finding very hard to predict (and so are the Phillies).

Don: More difficult read: Gravity’s Rainbow or Infinite Jest?
Klaw: Gravity’s Rainbow. Infinite Jest is long and tortuous. Gravity’s Rainbow is long and torturous.

Pat: With the seeming ability of certain pitching coaches to consistently restore pitcher value, why wouldn’t a big market team just steal a Ray Searage or Don Cooper away with a big $$ contract? With even mediocre starters requiring $10 million+ a year, it seems the value of a top pitching coach could be $5-10 million a year or more. Add in that the pitching coach salary doesn’t count against the luxury tax& it seems like a team like Detroit that is constantly looking/signing big $$ pitchers (& failing) would use a different approach.
Klaw: I think these guys are quietly getting more and more money, as are top GMs. They’re all still underpaid relative to the value they (the good ones) deliver, though.

ExposForever: Can Jorge Mateo hit 20 HRs in New York?
Klaw: I don’t think he can hit 20 HRs anywhere.

CJ: Which player would you be least surprised falls more than expected due to bonus demands and eventually doesn’t sign? Appel and Bickford come to mind as two past examples.
Klaw: Matt Manning, Braxton Garrett, Kevin Gowdy, in that order.

Bill: What are the odds Rutherford is available at 42? Saw this mentioned as a possibility in your mock.
Klaw: Maybe 20%? I suppose that, since he’s 19 and thus would be draft-eligible as a college sophomore, he could just decline to sign if offered less than he wants and say he’ll go back in the draft in 2018.

Andy: Hey, I know you’ve been paying more attention to the draft, but since last Tuesday, Prince Fielder is 4 for 32 with 2 walks and 1 XBH, while starting every game at DH. Meanwhile, Joey Gallo has equaled those numbers in the last 3 days in Round Rock. Oh, and Profar will likely go back to the minors when Odor’s suspension is done. If they end up losing the division by a couple games, I’m sure no one will correlate any of these things.
Klaw: I talked about this on ESPN radio in Dallas yesterday. It’s absolutely hurting the major-league team right now.

Steven: What happened to Nolan Jones? From 12 to out of the first round? If it’s not an oversight, would the Rangers be interested in him at 30? They love HS guys with a bunch of potential.
Klaw: I don’t do “oversights.” It’s because he is expected to command a large signing bonus. He could still end up going in the top 15, or get paid well over slot in the sandwich round, or end up in school and vie for 1-1 in three years.

Kelly: Have you seen or heard many reports about Matt Cleveland from Windsor, CT? I coach in the same high school conference. I know he’s highly regarded by some, but it sounded like his performance was very up and down this year. Thanks!
Klaw: I heard it was down all year and that he wasn’t someone to consider for my rankings.

Patrick: I’ve heard people throw around Kyle Schwarber comps for Zack Collins. Lazy comparison since they are both high quality college hitters with little to chance to stick behind the plate, or is there something to it?
Klaw: Lazy comparison for me.

Paul: KLaw – as always, thanks for all the great draft coverage and chats. I have a feeling you’ll get this question from more than just me, since we Braves fans have really shifted our focus from the big league club to prospects and the draft. Have you heard specific names the Braves are linked to at 40 and 44? My personal dream scenario is Corey Ray, Joey Wentz, and Will Benson.
Klaw: I don’t think that happens. I’ve heard a bunch of names – mentioned Matt Dietz in a previous mock – but I think you’re aiming too high.

Eric: What are your thoughts on Alex Speas? His potential seems super intriguing – think there’s any shot the Mets pop him at 31?
Klaw: He’s not their kind of guy at all. Great arm and body. Zero command. Like, couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn at times.

Aaron Cameron: Is “league-average starter” a realistic upside for A’s AAA farmhand Daniel Mengden?
Klaw: Fair. Maybe a tick optimistic.

Sean S: Keith, With the Tigers just having the one pick in the first 3 rounds are you sensing that they’re being conservative with that pick? Picking Hudson there seems to point that way. I am interested in seeing the new regime in action
Klaw: Don’t think they’re being conservative since I’ve said they’ll take Pint if he gets there.

Jordan: I know Devers is young compared to his competition, but at what point do his struggles concern you?
Klaw: Probably never, since he’s making plenty of contact.

Jay: Is Soroka on a top 100 list right now?
Klaw: No. Remember how many people thought I should have had Austin Riley on my top 100 last winter because of his good stats in August?

JJ: How many acts of God really need to happen for Moniak to really slide to #12?
Klaw: Maybe three. I doubt it happens. But what’s weird is that I hear Moniak a lot at 1 and 4, and then very little at 6 onward. Maybe some teams just assume he’s gone and haven’t bothered, but when I saw Moniak live two weeks ago there were all of maybe eight scouts there.

Santos: My biggest pet peeve is when a broadcaster says Guy with highest batting average is leading the league in HITTING. No question, just wanted to tell someone.
Klaw: The guy didn’t win the “batting title,” he won the “batting average title.”

Mike: What’s your feeling on over working a high school or college pitcher who is a non-prospect? If a pitcher has no professional future and wants to “gut it out” do you give him (and his coach) a pass?
Klaw: No, because he can still get hurt, lose range of motion or flexibility, require expensive surgery, face complications, and so on. Your tendons don’t know you’re a non-prospect.

Michael: Why doesn’t the NCAA institute mandatory pitch count restrictions?
Klaw: They’re too busy making sure some reserve linebacker at South Carolina State actually paid for his Big Mac.

T Hagz: Have you heard anything about Allard with the braves? Is he still in extended spring? I thought he was going to be called up to A ball in May
Klaw: Still in extended, which ends this upcoming week I believe.

Marcos: How strongly can recency bias impact where someone gets drafted? Do the last few looks a scout gets at someone carry a lot of weight?
Klaw: Yes but I wouldn’t call it recency bias – for a pitcher, especially, you want to be sure he’s fully healthy and also not wearing down.

Fitzy: Any thoughts on Ron Fowler’s tirade? Seems rather silly to blame the players and not the suits.
Klaw: Totally inappropriate. Keep that stuff internal.

Billy Pilgrim: Would you rather go Groome @ 3 and hope a prep bat like Rutherford or Benson falls to 40, or go Ray/Lewis @ 3 and get prep arm at 40?
Klaw: I would take Ray or Groome. Then just take the best players who fall to 40/44, without regard to who I took at 3. Just grab all the talent you can.

Hinkie: Hi Keith … Phillies fan here. Have you any knowledge of the difference in signing demands between Puk at 1.1 and Moniak at 1.1 ?
Klaw: No and I don’t expect to. Also, I really do not believe they’re taking Moniak at 1.

Jon: You mentioned Wentz and Nolan Jones as dropping due to asking price. Do you have a ballpark as to what they may be asking?
Klaw: I don’t think either has put out a dollar figure yet.

Jay: Thought on Max Povse? Doing really well in A+, is this a case of an older guy carving up hitters or does he have MOR upside?
Klaw: Yeah, don’t think he’s a future starter.

Adam: Would you go over slot for Matt Manning?
Klaw: Yes, but I’d go over slot for a lot of guys. The draft is still a screaming bargain for impact talent.

jon: if Groome and lewis are available do the braves go bat? I don’t see how the could pass on groome, and find they value pint more seems off
Klaw: They don’t value Pint over Groome, if that’s what you’re saying. I think they’d take Groome, obviously, but I don’t think that’s decided yet.

MAddon: Is DJ Lemahieu now a legit MLB player or a product of the thin air in CO? The Cubs gave him away for nothing.
Klaw: Colorado. I mean, home/road splits don’t tell the whole story, but he’s hit .254/.295/.327 in his career on the road. That gets you released.

Joe: In general, how much do teams put stock in Cape league? I’m sure it differs from team but I’m curious with someone like Lewis who performs well but faces less competition in his division.
Klaw: For Lewis it essentially made him a top 20 pick, maybe even made him a top 10 pick. It’s a wood bat league and for Lewis better competition than what he faces in the SoCon.

Paul: The local sport radio blog suggested the Red Sox taking Burdi at #12 with the hope he could help out the struggling bullpen this year instead of going the trade route. Do you think this is a realistic option?
Klaw: I think it’s ridiculous.

Chip: What are the chances UVA’s top pitching commits will ever get to learn “the squat”? They usually get their guys on campus
Klaw: I think they force all their guys to learn it. And so far it seems to have failed to produce a single big-league starter – but it might have ruined a few arms.

Nick: Do you think Will Craig stick at 3B for 3-5 years?
Klaw: No. Arm is there, but that’s it.

Jake: Eloy Jimenez or Victor Robles ?
Klaw: Robles right now – more polished, more dynamic, stays in the middle of the field. Eloy’s pretty damn good, though. I liked his swing when I saw him a year ago.

Hinkie: Is it more realistic to think Rutherford (as you mentioned today) slides to the Phillies at #42 or one of the HS arms? If it’s an arm, could Ian Anderson or even Riley Pint be the guy ?
Klaw: Arms. There are more of them in this draft, and they are seen as riskier to begin with. Pint ain’t getting past 9, though. And I hear Anderson won’t get past the Yanks, but there are other scenarios where they end up with someone better than Anderson anyway.

Dave: It has always been Ray Montgomery’s MO to draft the best available player. So if they were to pick Lowe with that pick wouldn’t that be somewhat odd for him?
Klaw: It would be the first time since he became a scouting director that I strongly disagreed with his team’s first pick. It happens.

Chris: Two A’s prospects lighting it up this year are Daniel Gossett and Ryon Healy. Either one of them project as anything special at the MLB level?
Klaw: Gossett’s legit. Saw him in spring training and wrote about him.

David: Your mock notes that Puk has a great shot at going #2 if Philly passes – does that mean they could more easily convince Kyle Lewis to take a below slot deal (6M) and have 4.5M to give someone like Rutherford at pick 42?
Klaw: Probably, but again, I don’t know this for sure and don’t want to give you the wrong impression. It’s logical.

N: Who was the first team who actually made a bad decision at the time by not drafting Trout?
Klaw: The only team ahead of the Angels who I know for sure had Trout in their decision set was Oakland. I think I wrote it at the time, too. They chose to take Grant Green, figuring he was more major-league ready.

Dave: Thoughts on how the Brewers are handling Josh Hader, he hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a start and now they plan to limit his innings. Seems like a strange way to develop a starting pitcher who is 22 years old.
Klaw: Well his delivery is not a great one for a starter and I wonder if they consider the arm action a potentially risky one, so they’re trying to avoid having him pitch while fatigued at all.

Jon: Remember Stetson Allie and his heater? How much different is Riley Pint to the now converted to first baseman Allie?
Klaw: Allie has more in common with Speas than Pint. Pint doesn’t have command. Allie didn’t have control.

Tim: You seem lower on Logan Shore than others, with him at 69 (nice) on the Big Board. Is that a profile preference (ranking high floor guys lower than high ceiling) or are you not buying his floor as a back-end Major Leaguer who could be in the bigs 12 months from now?
Klaw: His floor is that he gets smoked in AA and never gets any further. It’s not a major-league average fastball and he doesn’t have an average breaking ball. Marco Gonzales came out of Gonzaga with better stuff and he didn’t do what you described.

Eric: You mentioned in your mock that the White Sox are recently on Collins. Would that be with the idea of going under-slot and using that money on high school talent that falls?
Klaw: Doubt it. Collins isn’t getting past 12, so why would he take well under slot at 10?

David: Alec Hansen has performed better of late – does the stuff match the improving box scores?
Klaw: No. I heard he was mostly 90-92 at the big 12.

Michael: My friend’s son didn’t start pitching until his Freshman year. He’s now a Junior and is 6’6″, 240 pounds, fairly fit and throws around 88. He has offers from three SEC schools right now. Is he a dime a dozen or someone that would be expected to go in the first 10 rounds?
Klaw: 240 pounds and sitting 88 is not a great pro profile. You couldn’t call him projectable, given his size/weight. I think he’d have to throw harder as a senior to be in line for, say, a couple hundred grand.

Greg: Wait, so a guy like Dietz is what we should be expecting Atlanta to go overslot with at 40? Woof. That’s pretty disappointing for having such a huge draft pool.
Klaw: No, I mentioned that as one name I know they particularly like. The truth is I don’t know who gets to 40/44 and neither does Atlanta right now.

Jeff: Espinosa still cannot hit but has been good on D at SS. Would you bring up Turner now, or at this point does his good offense and mediocre defense cancel out?
Klaw: Isn’t Turner up today? He’s clearly better than Espinoza. Holding him down for service-time reasons was foolhardy.

Kevin: Keith, Oregon pitcher questions. Matt Krook still a top-five round pick? Could Cole Irvin and Stephen Nogosek go that high too.
Klaw: Krook maybe fourth/fifth, but given healthy history I think he could get past that. Neither of the others seems like a great bet to go that high either.

Jon: When do you see Kyle Funkhouser getting drafted this year?
Klaw: Third round. He’ll never see the $2 million-plus he turned down last year.

Chris: Keith, thanks for the chats and the variety of topics. As someone that struggles with anxiety, your transparency with your own struggles has been very helpful and an inspiration. Living in the Seattle area, Christian Jones (Federal Way) is the player that gets the most attention. Do you see him in the round 3-5 range? Are there any other players in the state of Washington that intrigue you or you are hearing buzz on?
Klaw: I didn’t have anyone from the northwest in my top 100 at all. Worst year I can remember up there.

fats: Aaron Sanchez changing your mind yet? Looking like a starter all the way
Klaw: Remember I had Sanchez as a top 20 prospect once, as a future #1 or #2 starter, before someone changed his delivery. So your question is really inaccurate.

Joe: Do you actually believe that nobody compensated by the vaccine court was actually injured by a vaccine? You’re as bad as anti-vaxers if that is true. It is rare, but it happens.
Klaw: Straw man. There are things like Guillain-Barre Syndrome that are extremely rare side effects of certain flu vaccines (and also of the flu). GBS is also a side effect of Zika, if that disease weren’t already scary enough.

Zach: You won’t say but I will. This is the player you said Mookie would be from day 1. Although you didn’t have him pegged as an all world right fielder, so I guess you’re not that good
Klaw: I don’t think I had Mookie as a 30 HR bat either. I can’t take much credit there.

Jason in Detroit: Hi Keith. Thanks for the chat. Fulmer has looked like he’s taken a step forward in his last couple starts. Too soon to say, or is he progressing?
Klaw: The last few starts he’s looked more like the guy I saw in Lakeland in March. Maybe he just needed a little confidence and a routine.

Santos: What does MOR stand for?
Klaw: Middle Of Rotation. Or model order reduction but I don’t think the question was about applied math.

Mark: The Mets best option right now is prob calling up Dilson to play 2b and move Walker to 3b, no? I dont get this insistence on playing Flores and keeping these atrocious backups like Reynolds and Kelly around.
Klaw: Yes but doesn’t it seem like they’ve lost faith in Herrera?

Lute: This time last year some people were talking 1-1 for Dalbec and then he shit the bed. Does he go back to school or take whatever he’s offered in round 20?
Klaw: OK, anyone who was talking 1-1 on him last spring or summer was out of his or her mind. He was NEVER that kind of prospect. If he’d hit some, he could have been a first-rounder, but his hit tool has always been a question mark. I think he’d be better off going back to school if someone doesn’t offer him, say, top 3 rounds money.

Alex: Delvin Perez is working out for the White Sox today. Have you heard them on him at 10 at all?
Klaw: I’ve heard him sliding and now teams after the Padres are revisiting him when earlier it seemed like he wouldn’t get that far.

Bob: Was that poor guy, Donnie Everett, going to be a significant prospect? Man, things can happen so fast.
Klaw: I had him as a first-round talent in last year’s draft, but I feel like that’s irrelevant right now. I feel for his family and for the teammates he was with who must be dealing with enormous guilt on top of their grief right now.

Elton: I was surprised to see Kinsler is almost at 50 career WAR with his strong start this year. If he ages gracefully and reaches 60-65 WAR is he a HOFer for you?
Klaw: No, because he really never had a HoF peak. I don’t think a straight WAR total tells the whole story, unless it’s someone with, say, 28 WAR, which shouldn’t even get you a free ticket into the museum.

Randy: Is Hendricks smoke and mirrors or could you see him now as a #3 or #4?
Klaw: Not smoke and mirrors, better than I thought, also benefiting a lot from the Cubs’ defensive work and some tweaks from the coaching staff. He’s matured into a very different pitcher than he was at the time of the trade.

Jay: Klaw. I’m going to cape cod in a week and want to catch a cape cod league game… Off the top of your head who are some potential high picks there this year to watch?
Klaw: No idea – I haven’t even looked. Just pick a game and go enjoy it. The atmosphere is wonderful.

Bob: Casey Gillaspie a future all star 1b?
Klaw: I’d take the under on that, but he has reestablished himself as a legitimate prospect, at least a near-term everyday player.

Nick: Very small sample size for Hyun-Soo Kim I know (70 abs) but it’s looking pretty bad that Buck buried him based on a bad spring training for a rule 5 guy who is negative WAR while Kim is sporting a .450 OBP
Klaw: Not just buried him, humiliated him in the press. I don’t understand why Buck gets a free pass on stuff like that or messing up Gausman’s delivery or all the stuff that went down with his handpicked pitching coach Rick Adair and Jake Arrieta. Buck does some things very, very well. He also has made some significant mistakes that deserve greater scrutiny.

Caleb: Are the Cards mostly in on college players?
Klaw: I have not heard that.

Xander Boegarts: Is it still to early to be thinking about my HOF speech?
Klaw: With your accent I would gladly drive umpteen hours to go hear this.

Adam: How much of a lock do you think Manning to the Padres at 8 is?
Klaw: I don’t think anything in my mock draft this morning was a lock. They could take Perez or Garrett or surprise me entirely.

Nick: Are there many high round high schoolers that completely avoid there showcases and all star clubs and just play the high school season? I’m thinking potential 2 sport guys maybe.
Klaw: Football guys nearly always skip the summers – I think Taylor Trammell was one. Also Riley Pint’s dad had him pitch just twice last summer after he did too much stuff the prior summer.

Kyle: This is the third year I’ve asked this? Who is your next breakout prospect who will fly up the rankings. A couple years ago you mentioned Gregory Polanco, and several years back Oscar Taveras.
Klaw: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Eloy Jimenez, Junior Fernandez.

Joey: Who makes a bigger impact this season: Glasnow or Taillon?
Klaw: I think Taillon because I believe he comes up first.

Tom: Quick verdict on Quadropolis? Play Karuba yet? If not, highly recommended.
Klaw: Only played Quadropolis once so far. We liked it. Not familiar with Karuba.

James: Good afternoon, Keith! With concern over pitcher arms growing every year, is it conceivable that we might enter a “golden age of knuckleballs” within the next decade? Between the deception and ease of stress on the arm, it seems like a not-so-terrible idea to have more stalled prospects and/or struggling pros at least try to develop a knuckler.
Klaw: It’s not that easy to develop a knuckler.

Jesse: I know Bo Bichette Performed well at the Citi field expedition. Is he on the mets radar at all?
Klaw: I haven’t heard that, at least not at 19, but 31 is about the high end of where I think he’ll go. I like him a bit more than the industry; he’s calmed down his swing since his junior year, and he’s really not like his brother at all, better athlete, better defender, less uphill swing.

Ron: The Sano experiment in RF has to end like very soon in Minnesota right? Move him to 3B and get rid of Plouffe for whatever.
Klaw: Not sure Sano at 3b is going to be any prettier.

Elton: Just out of curiosity: Utley has had a superficially similar but somewhat better career than Kinsler and with a higher peak. HOFer?
Klaw: I would vote for Utley well before considering voting for Kinsler.

Tim: I see Cody Reed made a jump from 54 to 24. His showing in AAA thus far improve his ceiling or his floor in your mind?
Klaw: He’s maintained his performance and his control even against much better competition – this time last year he had just been promoted out of high-A – and I’ve heard his fastball command has improved as well.

Jesse: When you say a team is mostly in on college players. Is it because that’s where they see the best players where they pick. Want lower floor? or something different?
Klaw: I’m literally just giving you what I’ve heard. It means I’ve heard they specifically want a college player, or that the only players I’ve heard connected to them are college players (N > 1, of course).

Karl: What does Gallo need to do to get called up and stay up? Also what do the Rangers do with Profar once Odor returns? Thanks for the work you do.
Klaw: At some point they’re going to have to turn the page on Fielder and play one of those two guys. I’d have Profar DH and sit Fielder, rotating Profar into the field from time to time to spell Andrus and/or Odor.

Taylor: Who is the genuinely nicest person you work with on Baseball tonight? Tim Kurkjen seems like he’d be a really decent person. Just wondering.
Klaw: Yeah, Tim has 80 nice.

Jeff: How do you scout a knuckleballer?
Klaw: You put the radar gun and the notebook down and you enjoy the game.

Doug: Renfroe’s start garnering him any consideration to re-enter the top 100 prospects list?
Klaw: No, he’s the same player he was, now in a great hitting environment, walking once every never. Good tools. Might just be a 45 bat, which makes him a big leaguer but not a star. Hoping he’s not just a 40 bat.

Matt: Do you have a prediction on who you think will win the SEC/ACC Challenge….I mean, the CWS?
Klaw: I’m pulling for Florida a bit just because that team is so good, O’Sullivan handles his players well (he understands the goal is pro ball for a lot of those kids), and they are the best program I can think of that has never won the College World Series. That’s not so much a prediction, but with a staff like theirs maybe it is.

Klaw: That’s all for this week. Thank you for all of your questions and for reading. Next week’s chat schedule might be a little wonky because I’m going to attend the draft in person in Secaucus, but I will keep everyone posted. Have a good weekend.

Klawchat 5/27/16.

Starting a little after 11 am. Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments.

Remember to sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: The in-crowd say it’s cool to dig this chatting thing. Klawchat.

Alex: Where do you expect Kyle Lewis to go? I still wonder if the Mercer part of things might make some of the teams at the top hesitant as the draft gets closer.
Klaw: I still think he goes 1 or 2, but I tend to agree with your point of view. We haven’t seen him face good pitching all spring and he still swings and misses a bit. But he also hit a monster homer at the Greenville Drive’s stadium over the batter’s eye the other day, so if you want to roll the dice on big power he’s your guy.

Brian: Any new buzz on Atlanta at 3?
Klaw: Nothing new on the top 3-4 teams. About the only really new thing is that it seems like Corey Ray is without a clear landing spot right now.

Philip: Does Matt Manning have huge bonus demands? Could he slip to Padres at 24-25 for way overslot?
Klaw: Bonus demands tend to be just rumors – they’re almost impossible to verify – but I have heard his asking price will be quite high. He has the two-sport commitment to LMU, but you know what I’m going to say about any HS pitcher who is already in the mid-90s: Take the money.

Dustin: Atlanta just essentially paid $3 million for a second-round pick. I think it’s a great move for the Braves, but I’ve seen detractors play the “draft picks are lottery tickets and the players Atlanta traded had good numbers” game. I myself don’t need convincing, but what is your quick rebuttal for those naysayers?
Klaw: People who’ve said that – and I got a few of those types on twitter – don’t understand the draft system. An additional pick means more money in your pool and more flexibility to sign better players. Since the draft is already the best investment any team can make, getting more of these things is a no-brainer. There’s no better place to put your money if you’re trying to build.

Dave M: Clearly you’re a fan of Wire. What other post-punk luminaries do you favor? The Fall, Joy Division, PIL?
Klaw: The Fall are a little out there for me. Joy Division of course, PIL here and there, Gang of Four.

Cephus: Assuming Puk has locked up 1-1. Do you get the sense that Braves would take Senzel over Lewis, if both are available? Also, if Lewis and Pint/Groome are on the board, do you believe Braves would opt for the bat or would they prefer the upside of the prep arms?
Klaw: Puk has not locked up 1-1. Nobody has. I still think Atlanta would take Groome over anyone, and I think Ray is strongly in their mix too.

Ed: Does it still sound like Perez is falling to 8? Are the Padres in on Perez, Wentz and Manning at that spot?
Klaw: Perez could go 5 too. I wouldn’t say “falling;” I have him ranked higher than that but that doesn’t mean I’m right. I haven’t heard them with Wentz at all.

Jon: Thank you for these chats Keith. Are you getting more of a sense of who will fall due to signability? Manning, Wentz, I.Anderson and B.Garrett seem to be names I’ve heard
Klaw: I’d add Kevin Gowdy. Manning has hoops, Wentz is a UVA commit, Anderson and Garrett are Vanderbilt. Lawson is also falling but that’s because his velocity was down, and I expect him to end up at ASU.

Michael: Wondering if you read Mike Wilbon’s drivel on African Americans and analytics. I’m almost certain that his thoughts are not true, but could this be a reason why there aren’t a lot of minorities in high-ranking sports positions?
Klaw: I started it and found the premise absurd.

Gabriel: when is your second mock draft coming?
Klaw: Saturday. Which is tomorrow. HOLY SHIT I HAVE A MOCK DRAFT DUE TONIGHT

John: Do you think Alec Hansen’s issues are mostly mental or is there an injury not being reported? He seems like someone who could be a great deal for a team taking a risk on him from 24 and later.
Klaw: I would bet it’s injury-related. He was shut down in the fall with forearm soreness and I believe he has a screw in his elbow from a prior injury.

@RationalMLBfan: Why would the Braves DFA Brian Matusz? It’s not like they have any bullpen prospects they want to use–wouldn’t it have been worth hanging on to a young, recently good LHP in hoes of trading him for *anything*?
Klaw: I agree. I thought they’d try to clean him up a little and see if they could create enough value to trade him in two months.

Ben: would there be any notable changes if you were to re-rank the farm systems
Klaw: Not really. Might slide the Rays up a little with the strong starts of some of the AA bats, especially Gillaspie, although Guerrieri’s velo has been down and so have his results.

Eric: You have the Mets picking Will Craig in your mock – how would you compare him to Dom Smith and if they pick him who would you consider the Mets “1B of the future”?
Klaw: Craig would be a bit of a reach for me at 19 – he’s got power, not sold on the hit tool against better pitching after a poor Cape, while Smith is a much better pure hitter and fielder and I think he’s actually younger than Craig.

Dave from Boston: Keith, Are the Redsox lowering Swihart’s value as a potential trade chip by playing him in left field? Shouldn’t he be honing his catching skills in Pawtucket for new?
Klaw: Yes, but perhaps they think he’ll have a future with the club if he’s a full-time left fielder. I think he has more value to them as a catcher either way.

Nationals Review: Why are teams so concerned with service time when calling up top prospects? It seems that most elite young players get extended well before they would hit free agency, so that extra year of club control never served as more than leverage. However, if a team needs the wins now, it seems like they wouldn’t lose much by calling up the player. Do I have this completely wrong?
Klaw: I agree with you and think the emphasis on delaying callups, especially for arbitration, is silly. If you’re contending, the difference between a division title and a wild-card spot, or between making and missing the playoffs, could easily be one game. Having the right guy up in the order, the right arm in the rotation, in a specific game may end up the margin of success. When the difference is slight, it’s not a big deal, but Trea Turner is so much better than Danny Espinosa’s balsa-wood bat that the Nats’ decision to skimp on Turner makes no sense to me. And even for pushing off free agency, in many cases, you’re relying on the assumption that everything goes well with the player – look at Carlos Gomez right now. Sometimes the player’s best years are now, not years six and seven and beyond.

Andrew: Klaw, after Puk who do you view as the top SEC prospect?
Klaw: Dakota Hudson. I have an entire ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft.

DPF: Is there something that you’ve seen or not seen in Austin Meadows to make him drop on your prospect list? Or is it just a case of guys jumping him?
Klaw: He needs to start making better quality contact.

Nick: How much do you think bonus demands are going to factor into who goes at #1 and #2 overall? Given that there aren’t any consensus players at #1 and #2, do you expect that the Phillies and Reds are going to look to go more underslot than you’d typically see with the #1 and #2 overall picks in a generic draft?
Klaw: I’m almost positive that the Phillies are going to make offers to multiple players at 1 and take the player who will accept the best deal – the numbers may be different for each player, but regardless of who they sign they’d be in position to grab a top talent (Manning?) who falls to their pick at 42.

Rick: Any reports on Alex Jackson? 7:6 BB:K so far with 2 homers
Klaw: Interesting that you omitted the part where he’s 3 for 23. Don’t think any of it means much. I didn’t get good reports on him from extended.

Jobu: What can we expect out of Senzel?
Klaw: I think your floor is an average player. Average or fringe-average defense at third, plus hit tool, maybe 8-10 homers a year. He shows huge raw in BP, doesn’t bring it over to games. If that translates, then you’re looking at a potential star.

Justin: So…is Joey Gallo going to get any playing time or is he just there to help the clubhouse?
Klaw: Their fealty to Fielder befuddles me. Just release him. He’s toast.

Rick: Michael Gettys is starting off strong according to the stat line. .822 OPS and 20 steals. Good reports?
Klaw: No. Also, he’s repeating the level and still strikes out a lot.

Jonathan: Can Atlanta’s front office keep Swanson and Albies in minors all season (and bring them up April 14, 2017 to extend club control through 2023) or will Braves give in to mounting media noise calling for PR feel good move that brings those two up to MLB team this season?
Klaw: It’s not like the team has given in to any other media noise about PR feel good moves.

Greg: Have you heard anything or do you have any opinion on what Atlanta will do with the money from that extra pick? Pour it into 40 and 44, take a senior at 76?
Klaw: I think whatever fits. It will depend on which kids who want big bonuses slide to 40 and 44 – and that’s tougher to determine now than it was under the old system. But I happen to think they’ll get someone well over slot at 40.

Mike: What did you think of the dust up between LaRussa and Brown (Pirates PBP guy)? Seemed immature on both fronts to me…
Klaw: No issues with Brown. LaRussa was totally out of line to barge in on a broadcast like that.

Jason VT: Will Funkhauser go in the first three rounds?
Klaw: My guess is he’ll either go to the Nats or to whatever team takes Senzel.

John: You once mentioned that Hector Olivera does not look like a regular. Do you think he will play for the braves again or ever in the big league?
Klaw: Probably, but I don’t think he’ll ever be good.

Nick: Are you still hearing the Mets are looking at college bats with their 1st pick?
Klaw: Yes. Second pick, no.

Aaron: Thoughts on the new Radiohead or still waiting for it to hit Spotify?
Klaw: Other than “Burn the Witch” it was dull.

Jennifer: How much upside is there in Benson, Lowe, N.Jones, Mendoza and other bats that are projected around the back of the first round? Do you have any favorites?
Klaw: Jones, who I think will go higher than that unless he puts out a huge number, is my favorite by far. I’m not sure Benson or Mendoza are good bets to hit, period. Lowe could go anywhere from as high as 5 to the early 20s. Some guys are all in on the bat, others are not, two even used the word “fraud” to describe him as a prospect (I won’t go that far).

Brian: Odubal Herrera has dramatically increased his patience at the plate. Why don’t more guys place an emphasis on that and/or is it just too difficult to do for most guys?
Klaw: You notice how rare it is – that’s because it’s really hard.

John: Braves have had Teheran, Wisler, Folty, and Blair in the rotation at times this year. Of those 4 + the 4-5 guys at AAA and AA (Jenkins, Sims, Newcomb, Ellis, etc) who do you think is actually a starter long term for them?
Klaw: Blair no doubt. Folty and Wisler probably the next two most likely. Newcomb has starter stuff but not command or control. Jenkins has starter stuff but for some reason doesn’t miss bats. Ellis is a fifth starter or long guy. Sims is a reliever.

Jonas: I’m currently in the planning process for a kitchen remodel. I recall that mentioning one you did in a previous chat. Any advice you can share from that experience?
Klaw: Set aside more money than you think you’ll need, and then do it down to the studs. You never know what nonsense is lurking in your walls. For us it was flying splices, narrow pipes, and some subfloor issues.

Jason Reynolds: Keep fighting the good fight on amateur pitch counts. No one else is
Klaw: It’s really bizarre. And I have yet to have any coach I’ve called out say, “yep, he’s right, I pitched that kid too much.” Even the pitchers themselves are saying they feel fine and I don’t know how tough they are; one said he just had to “sack up” for the long outing, as if, say, Jarrod Parker just needed some more sack.

Jason Reynolds: How quick could Connor Jones see the bigs? Next year possible?
Klaw: I’m skeptical. UVA pitchers haven’t fared well in their transitions to pro ball and I don’t see an out pitch from him that would make him successful even in AA.

Justin: Does the fact that Clint Frazier has been able to significantly (would you call it that?) cut his K% at the Double-A level lead you to believe he’ll be able to compete near his ceiling projections? Indians probably wont do it – but COULD he help them this year? Thanks for all your work. Never miss a post/chat.
Klaw: He’s a real breakout guy right now – as in, I think it’s a real breakout. More likely to help this year than Zimmer, but I’d also like to see Frazier head up to AAA for a few months of facing pitchers who’ve been in the big leagues before.

BD: Does Shawryn having 16ks move the needle for scouts, or is it just another game, averaged into the whole season? I bet there is some recency bias no?
Klaw: Just another game. Delivery still is what it is, either a reliever or a patient.

Cale: Bogaerts is beginning to show signs of power to go along with what looks like a plus hit tool. You always seemed to project power but did you expect him to be such a high average guy? Plus his defense looks like he can stay at short for a long time. What do you think his peak looks like? Looks like a MVP caliber player.
Klaw: I had him as the #2 prospect in baseball one year, so yes, I thought he’d be a star all around, a shortstop who got on base and hit for power. Superstar makeup too. 25 HR peak plus all the stuff he’s already doing.

Nick: Follow-up: Do you expect the Reds to adopt a similar approach (i.e. taking the best deal) at #2 in order to be able to go over slot at #35?
Klaw: Yes, but I think they’re focused on fewer players (3?) than the Phillies (5).

Ian: Does Senzel qualify as a “high upside” guy that the Braves say they are after? Huge Braves fan, and wouldn’t be overly excited about that pick.
Klaw: No and I don’t think they’re likely to take him.

Dan: Any idea what’s going on with Harvey? His mechanics look terrible, he looks exhausted early in games and I don’t know how the Mets can just just keep throwing him out there. Would a minor league assignment help get him back on track?
Klaw: I answered this, sort of, on Twitter: I know his velocity’s down by a significant margin (not just random), and his mechanics look “off,” but I can’t give you more than that. I would need to see him live to even start to talk about the delivery in specific terms, and if he’s actually hurt, we probably won’t know until he hits the DL. It’s real, though, not just a random blip. He’s not ‘right.’ But to say more than that would be to pretend to knowledge I don’t have.

Canada: What are you all gonna do about Trump?
Klaw: Close your borders, stat.

Alan: You called Austin Riley a mediocre bat speed guy, and the numbers so far certainly look like that’s the case. I’m curious if there’s anything he can do? How often do guys get past that to reach their potential, and is there anything they can do other than simply get stronger?
Klaw: Stronger won’t speed up your bat. I don’t know of any way to improve bat speed in a player who’s already over 18.

Matt: Profar coming to the bigs this weekend. Still a star for you long term if he stays healthy?
Klaw: Yes, I’m still all in.

Finn: Do you like the Dodgers saying that Urias will be going back down at some point? Seems odd if he pitches well not to keep him at the big league level even with the innings limit
Klaw: I think they need to manage expectations as well as his innings. If he pitches really well, they can always reverse course.

Alex Remington: Could Blake Rutherford possibly fall to 40 due to outrageous bonus demands?
Klaw: I had a scout broach that possibility to me yesterday. It’s an interesting one, because he was seen coming into the year as a potential top 5 guy and is almost certainly not going up there. I could also see the Phils cutting a deal with him at 1, then trying to pay someone $5 million at 42. There are a lot of possibilities right now with the lack of clarity up top and all these high school kids with upside but no price tags yet.

Elton: How old was your daughter when she was able to play interesting board games and what was the first one you played with at least a bit of strategery?
Klaw: She was four when she started playing Carcassonne via the app. By the time she was 7-8 she could really play games like that or Splendor or Ticket to Ride with us.

J: Do you see Zack Burdi as a guy who could be a Brandon Finnegan (as in get to majors in draft year?). Where would you take him?
Klaw: I do. He has the stuff to do that, perhaps not the command. Would consider him in the 30s/40s, think he’ll go higher.

Ray A.: Will you be at the Futures Game in San Diego this year? Any prospects I can look forward to watching? I’m guessing Moncada will be there.
Klaw: Yes, I will, and will try to set aside some time pregame to meet with fans as usual. I thought Urias might start the game, but that’s not happening.

Gregory: Lucas Sims as a reliever? That’s harsh. He’s dominating right now.
Klaw: Lucas Sims is dominating right now? He has a 5 ERA and 21 BB in 34 IP.

Belvin2: You mentioned Giolito had his delivery altered. Any insight as to why and what was wrong with his old one?
Klaw: Nothing was wrong with it. I can only assume this was some pitching coach wanting to put his stamp on the kid. If I were Mike Rizzo I would have fire coming out of my eyes at this point.

addoeh: If Baylor isn’t lack of institutional control, I don’t know what is. Still, NCAA is more worried about the players getting paid then what a few of the players do off the field.
Klaw: Meanwhile, UCLA signed a quarter billion dollar deal with Under Armour but can’t find a few bucks to pay the players.

Tom: Do you believe new CBA agreement should set a strict rule to prevent tanking?
Klaw: No. But maybe they could craft rules that don’t actively encourage it?

Matt: cody reed jumped from the 50s to 24 in your recent prospect update. Change in his upside to you or just more confident he’ll be an above average SP soon?
Klaw: Higher upside, showing even better command, Reds people are ecstatic over his progress.

Jay_B: What skill/tool in MLB is most unique (sorry to use a modifier on “unique”)? The one thing where you are like “wow, no one else can do that”
Klaw: Never seen any player run like Billy Hamilton or murder a baseball like Joey Gallo – no, not even Stanton – or throw a 95 mph slider like Thor.

Dan: Thought on Tyler O’Neill so far this season. I believe preseason you said you saw signs of life.
Klaw: Yep, I’m in, especially since now he’s doing it outside the Cal League.

Matt: Kyle Zimmer -> we’ve gotta be talking about a reliever soon right? seems pretty clear his shoulder isnt gonna hold up to a starter’s workload.
Klaw: If that. Hard to peg him as a reliever unless he can throw on back-to-back days. He might be one of the biggest disappointments I’ve ever seen – guy had three legit plus pitches and may never make a major league start.

Jeb: Do you find the draft more enjoyable to cover now that teams have to be more creative with deals and who they pick where or was it more fun when there were fewer restrictions….or has it really not changed that much?
Klaw: The draft is fun to cover when the players are good. The system itself doesn’t affect my job other than doing mocks.

John: Is there anything you particularly like about Trump’s inclusion in politics? I have heard a lot of people say they hate Trump and what he stands for, but they enjoy seeing an “outsider” enter the fray and just disrupt everything. I liked it, too……at first. Not so crazy that the maniac actually has a shot at winning.
Klaw: I was thinking about this the other day after seeing 538’s piece on Gary Johnson’s shot at polling north of 5%. Do people underrate how much we have benefited from having one of the world’s most stable democracies, which in itself is a function of having two dominant (if sometimes wholly dissatisfying) parties? Regardless of who’s been in charge, there’s never been a real threat to the republic, so to speak.

Curt: Perez going 5 to Milwaukee a sure bet?
Klaw: There are no sure bets in this draft. Really.

Cody: What changed with Martes? He does not look good right now
Klaw: Martes, Lopez … I don’t know if these guys are hurt or what. That’s always my first assumption when a good pitcher either stops throwing strikes or loses velocity.

Ed: Are the Padres in a better position than say the Reds or Phils for an underslot deal at 8 then overslot for a manning or anderson at 24,25?
Klaw: Yes, easier to manipulate it when your second pick comes before anyone else’s second pick.

Ray: Alex Verdugo is hitting for more power on AA. Is he a future 20 home run bat? Estimated ETA?
Klaw: He’s got power for sure. Did as an amateur too. Might make it to the majors next year.

Jay: Worried about my Rays. They seem to be taking a step backwards under Silverman. Can you talk me off the ledge?
Klaw: You’d have to give me something more specific than that. I don’t see what’s gone backwards. Thought their draft last year was their most promising in a while.

Brendan: Why Nats on K Funkhauser?
Klaw: Who’s his adviser again?

Brian: Keith, why don’t teams front load long term contracts when they realize the value is in the front and they’ll regret the end? It would make it much easier not to play, cut or trade the struggling player and not handicap the club. Is it basically just because the Union wouldn’t allow it or do the clubs want to delay the spending? Thanks
Klaw: Union discourages it, and yes, clubs love to borrow from tomorrow (and maybe the next GM) to pay for today.

John: Do you see any sense in a Freeman for Gallo + deal? I feel like Freddie should be traded and Texas could use the 1B production
Klaw: At that point Texas should just play Gallo at first base.

Ryan: Can Carter Keiboom stick at shortstop? Is it a 20-homer bat potential?
Klaw: Not a shortstop. Maybe 15-18 homers.

Andy: There’s also a huge difference between keeping Bryant in the minors for two to three weeks to delay free agency a year and avoiding paying money for a Super 2. In one case you hold the player’s rights for an extra year, in the other you just have to spend more money.
Klaw: I agree and I hope I made that distinction clear. That said, are we really good enough to know what a player might be worth in six years – especially a pitcher?

Loser in Minneapolis: I’m a Twins fan and need something to smile about. Any superstar talents in the 2017 draft?
Klaw: Yes. Might be a 2011 draft class. Wright, Faedo, Houck, Kendall, Greene, Schmidt … and that’s just what I’m thinking of now, while sleep-deprived, at 35,000 feet.

Matt: Was jose Berrios eligible for the updated top 25? Does his struggles this year change his long-term outlook for you?
Klaw: He was eligible and did not make the cut. Tiny sample in the majors, but you can see why I had voiced concerns about his height and flat fastball in the past.

Dan: Does Josh Hader make a debut in Beer Town before Sept or do Stearns/Counsell wait for Sept call ups. Dominating in the Southern League.
Klaw: I think he debuts this year. He actually is dominating, unlike Sims, but I don’t think that’s perfectly predictive of what he’ll be in the majors either.

Matt: Thanks for all the answers today. Not sure i’ve see you comment on this: what do you think of the Fantex contracts guys like Franco and Duffey have signed? seems like a good way for players to cash in on part of their value before arb without getting locked into a bad deal. Good for players. mlb?
Klaw: Good for players for sure. Not sure what MLB’s view on it will be – I don’t really see how it’s bad for them.

Doug: Will there be a player coming out of nowhere (like Benintendi last year) going in the top 10/
Klaw: Benintendi won the Golden Spikes Award as a centerfielder in the SEC, so I don’t think he was really out of nowhere. Justin Dunn is the most out of nowhere guy who’ll go high in the draft, maybe up to #11.

Mike: Some say catchers can take more time to develop at the plate, and I know he is still young, but should there be concern over Reese McGuire’s lack of pop?
Klaw: This is what he is and has always been. He can catch and throw but doesn’t have any power.

Gregory: Okay, Sims had a bad three-start run adjusting to AAA but the stuff is there. Right?
Klaw: No, not right.

Rick: Is Dylan Cozens power spike just a result a playing in hitter friendly Reading?
Klaw: He has huge raw power. I think the performance overall is affected by playing in Reading.

Chris: With all the (correct) bashing of the coaches/programs that ruin young pitchers arms, which one’s do you think are more likely to think of the player first and winning the game second?
Klaw: Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU all take pretty good care of their arms. And I’ve run into some less-known programs where the coaches get it – Radford, for example, even though they don’t have a lot of pro prospects. Unfortunately they are still in the minority.

Klaw: That’s all for this week as I’ll be landing soon. Thanks for all of the questions. Look for my next mock draft tomorrow morning.

Klawchat 5/19/16.

Sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: Got a loaded imagination being fired by Klawchat.

Alan: With Fredi Gonzalez being fired we all know that there are no longer any Latino managers. BUT can you at least acknowledge the narrative that exists by simply saying: X Latino players and 0 Latino managers = discrimination. In order to properly determine this you must look to the number of qualified candidates and analyze the population pool, etc. (I agree that qualified Latino candidates exist but the number of Latino players is not the proper measurement.)
Klaw: But it is absolutely the right way to look at it, because white ex-players with no managerial experience are hired all the time, so every Latino ex-player is automatically qualified for the job of manager too.

Joe C.: Hi Keith. I have a friend who may or may not be drafted this year out of HS. He is in talks with a couple teams about bonus ideas, and I am just looking for your take on the situation. I know you’ve been outspoken about if drafted out of HS, a player is better served signing, as opposed to going to college, esp. pitchers. My friend is a position player and has a commitment to a good D1 school, and also in my opinion and in his family’s could be well-served maturity wise to go to school and live a college life while playing ball for a few years. Whereas if he signed we’d worry he’d be a bit lost as an individual on his own, not with thousands of other freshmen undergrads in a similar situation. If just curious of your thoughts and wonder if the “if drafted out of HS, the best baseball career path choice is to sign” isn’t a one-size-fits-all theory.
Klaw: Truly depends on how much he’s being offered, whether he’s going high enough in the draft that reaching the majors is somewhat realistic, and what the school and scholarship in question are. If teams are offering him $100K, and he’s got a commitment to a good academic school with at least a half scholarship, then signing may not make much sense for him. It’s hard for me to give specific advice without specifics. The theory you mention is just my general advice for the majority of good HS players but not for all.

Woodsy: Hi Keith! I’m curious why, in your Mock Draft 1.0, that you have the Red Sox taking Nolan Jones, when they could pick the seemingly more talented and higher-ceiling player in Delvin Perez. Thanks for your great work!
Klaw: Because the mock draft is based on what my sources indicate to me that teams will actually do. If the Red Sox believe Jones is the better prospect, they’ll take him over Perez. That seems to be the case.

Henry: When I was an undergrad philosophy major, the quality of class discussions was directly related to the professor’s willingness to call people on their bullshit. All that to say, thanks for using your public persona to insist people use *gasp* facts and logic.
Klaw: You’re welcome. Lot of strawmen and ad hominems thrown at me on Twitter this morning over Baylor and this Washington NFL team name poll.

Greg: What are the chances Kyle Lewis falls to Atlanta at 3? Do you think they’d take him if he did?
Klaw: 40-50% chance, think they’d take him if Groome is gone.

Dan: International prospect question. For a team like Atlanta that we know is going to blow past their signing pool, are they allowed to deal their pool money to other teams? It seems like another way to acquire assets since they’re going to blow past the pool anyway.
Klaw: The Dodgers did this last year.

Chris: Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria were Top 10 prospects coming up through the minors who had star-level seasons in their early 20’s and now look like they are done while only being in the early 30’s. What happened?
Klaw: I don’t have a great answer to that but both guys had a lot of injuries in their 20s. Maybe that’s the reason?

Lucas: Anything Chad Kuhl can do to change your opinion on him being a reliever? Outstanding stats so far
Klaw: The stats aren’t really the issue. I got this a lot with Tyler Thornburg and Brad Peacock, with lots of Brewers/Nats fans getting Mad Online when I said both still projected as relievers despite great minor league numbers as starters. Deliveries and stuff matter too.

Austin: Is there anything more disingenuous in baseball than the excuses GMs give to justify holding prospects down when we all know it’s the Super Two? If Jameson Taillon tossed a no-hitter today and K’d 17 in the process, I’m fairly confident Neal Huntington would say something like “we’re obviously pleased with the results, but we really want to see him work on inducing more weak contact.” It’s to a point where something has to happen in the next CBA, right?
Klaw: I don’t know how to legislate it better, though.

John: What is your take on Fredi Gonzalez firing?
Klaw: They should have done it in November and hired the right long-term guy then and there.

Andy: Looking ahead to next year, how should the Cubs handle their catching situation? Contreras, Montero, and even Schwarber?
Klaw: Schwarber can’t catch. i didn’t like him as a catcher before the knee injury. Now it seems like it’s completely off the table. I’m assuming they ease Contreras in later this year given how he’s started in AAA.

Shane (Erie, PA): Keith, have you ever gotten feedback (negative or positive) in person from a player after assessing their talent level, play, etc. in a column?
Klaw: Yes. Most of the time it’s very friendly. Occasionally I get a player who doesn’t understand that the evaluations are not personal and that this is my job. They’re getting evaluated by scouts all the time, but those reports aren’t public, so perhaps it’s awkward for them to hear an objective (if possibly incorrect) evaluation or projection of their abilities. But most players get it – look at Stroman trolling me for thinking he might be too short to start because he lacked fastball plane. I thought that was great.

Jim: Tyler Goeddel is heating up. Can he be another Rule 5 steal for the Phillies?
Klaw: Well if you get any value in the rule 5 draft it’s a steal, so yes. I don’t think he’s a star, but I think he’s a useful big leaguer.

Andy: Fun stat. There are 5 Mets pitchers who have a higher ISO than Texas D”H” Prince Fielder. The answer to what the Rangers do when Choo comes back is pretty clear. Heck, putting Profar at SS and moving Andrus to DH would also improve their hitting.
Klaw: Yep. I hope they’re not too blind to the salary to realize benching Fielder is the right move. That front office is pretty sharp.

Ryan in MKE: I know you’re a firm believer in taking “best player available” but does it make sense for teams to either seek or avoid riskier prospects with more upside based on what they already have in their system? Seems like Milwaukee could stand some more risk at 5 in pursuit of a superstar because of the current depth they posses. Thoughts?
Klaw: That’s fair. I’d also be willing to consider arguments like, “hey, we’re really terrible at developing high school pitchers, so maybe we shouldn’t take them until we fix that.”

Steeeeve: It doesn’t seem that the Astros are considering moving Correa to 3b and Bregman at SS. I know that Bregman may not be the best at 3b but would he be adequate? Could Bregman play LF?
Klaw: I’d rather see Correa at 3b, where I think he’ll be excellent, and Bregman at ss, where I think he’ll be no worse than Correa (who appears to be below-average there). That’s a better alignment than Correa at ss and Bregman at 3b, where I think both guys would be below-average because Bregman doesn’t have the arm for third.

Jim in Chicago: Have you heard anything linking the White Sox to Wisconsin prep SS Gavin Lux? Will he be around at #26?
Klaw: I mean, that’s what I said in my mock draft.

Rob: It looks like Jorge Mateo’s not so much switching to 2B as preparing to play 2B-SS at AA this year. Is this the right approach for his development? Do you think he moves to 2B eventually?
Klaw: I had a limited look at him last year but didn’t love his hands at short. That said, I don’t believe in moving a young player off a position like that unless you’re absolutely sure he can’t play it. I didn’t think the Yanks were at that point with Mateo.

Jim: Do you think there is any hypocrisy in beating the drum for Fredi’s firing (over the top imo) and then complaining about the lack of diversity in managers after he is fired?
Klaw: Nothing’s stopping Atlanta from simply hiring a better tactical manager who is also a person of color. So, Mr. Coppolella, allow me to introduce you to my friend Alex Cora…

Ray A.: Hi Keith. Had a chance to see Mickey Moniak play this week. Had 3 more hits. I think the only tool missing is power, but power was missing from Trout too, then he developed it in the minors. How high is Moniak’s ceiling? He was a treat too watch live.
Klaw: Were you there on Tuesday? I was, and he had three singles, a HBP, and a popup to left field. He needs a lot of work to develop power, IMO. He’s got a narrow stance, no stride, and a very flat swing plane. His hands are quick and he keeps the bat in the zone a long time, but you’re talking a number of significant mechanical changes and then hoping he has the hand and wrist strength to drive the ball. I like him a lot for what he is but don’t see him developing Trout’s power. Trout had more power than Moniak as a senior and Trout was younger too.

Larry: I know this is probably a shot in the dark, but have you heard any names connected to Atlanta at 40 and 44 overall?
Klaw: Yes, I’ve mentioned a bunch in my writeups so far and have also heard them on Matthias Dietz at Logan JC.

Larry: Are we to the point where you have any feel for guys with signability issues, or is it still too early?
Klaw: Getting there. Manning, Ian Anderson, possibly Wentz. Garrett won’t be cheap as a Vanderbilt commit. Some others, like Drake Fellows, Zeferjahn, Linginfelter all appear to be unlikely to sign. I hate saying unsignable because few players are although Noah Murdock and Tyler Baum appear to have zero interest in pro ball right now.

Binnin: Who is one player in this draft who you are higher on in the draft than others? A player you are lower on?
Klaw: Probably higher on Bo Bichette and lower on Buddy Reed. Reed’s a good athlete and might be a 6 defender in center but he can’t hit with his current swing.

Bob (N Wilmington): Two Stones or Ulysses?
Klaw: Two Stones. Better food, to say nothing of the beer selection.

Anonymous: Mitch Keller looks like he’s finally starting to show some of the potential that made him such an attractive prospect out of HS. Could you see him as a guy who could emerge in your top 100 sometime this year – either mid season or preseason next year?
Klaw: Yes, no question.

Kyler: Given you stance on vaccination are you against circumcision for minors? It’s a religious thing more than and not, and freely choose by the child.
Klaw: We had decided before my wife got pregnant that we would have circumsized the baby had it been a boy.

Steve: If Lewis is gone before pick 3, you believe that Braves would take Groome. Do you prefer Groome to Pint? Why? Others have said Braves would lean more toward Pint.
Klaw: I don’t know who “others” are or why they’d say that because I don’t think that’s true at all. Groome’s the better prospect and Atlanta prefers him.

Jason: Glasnow seems to be alternating between dominance and struggling with command either other start at Triple-A. Do you foresee him struggling to throw strikes constantly at the big league level this year?
Klaw: This sounds like box-score scouting. That said, his command has always lagged his stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised if he came up and was an effective five-inning starter who gets pulled frequently due to high pitch counts.

Emily: Thoughts on the Wash Post poll today?
Klaw: Extrapolated over the entire Native American population, it’s saying that roughly 540,000 Native Americans are offended by the team’s nickname, perhaps as many as 800K (the survey had N=504 and thus a wide error bar). That’s a lot of people. Others are trying to attack the survey’s methodology, but I don’t quite see that objection. How about just accepting that that is a lot of people to offend with a team name that seeks federal trademark protection and for an organization that wants a big public subsidy?

Rob: Interesting that many college arms are rising up in the mock drafts despite that market being thin. Doesn’t it make more sense to go after a high school arm, such as Ian Anderson, who has upside?
Klaw: Maybe it does, but there is the same flight to safety every year in the draft. We talk all spring about the great high-ceiling prep arms, and when it’s nut-cutting time, teams flock to the security of the college player.

It’s a game, dammit!: Klaw, I just don’t see the point of all the finger-wagging and clutching of pearls by some players and broadcasters at walk-off celebrations. Loved the Khris Davis jump shot, e.g. Considering that we’re all just trying to wring as much joy from this weary life as possible before the galaxies collide, why is a bit of fun and entertainment so decried?
Klaw: I’ve got no issue with Davis’ jump shot or Bautista’s bat flip. Celebrations are great. You start taunting other players, throwing punches, going in spikes-up – that’s another story. But celebrating the positives is to be encouraged.

Brian: Would you ever take a HS arm at 1-1?
Klaw: Yes. I would have taken Brady Aiken there, since at the time none of us knew he had an issue with his left elbow UCL.

Jeff: Klaw – have you ever met Bomani Jones in your time at ESPN? You are two of my favorite follows at ESPN, and I would pay to watch/listen to the two of you discuss current events/economics. It’d be like the anti-PTI.
Klaw: I have not but I enjoy much of his content and willingness to take principled stands.

Dan: Jake Fraley wasn’t included in your top 100 draft prospects, but does he have the tools to project as a MLB regular? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he’s more of an extra OF, but I’ll see him in Hoover next week and get a fresh look.

Alan: Every current Latino player is NOT qualified. Most don’t speak English, do not have a college education (I think 2 managers currently do not) or adequate high school education. All things are not equal here.
Klaw: Why is a college education required to be a major league manager? And plenty of current managers don’t speak Spanish, so I don’t see your language objection.

Greg: Trying to think of a comp for Nick Senzel. How does he compare to a draft prospect like Stephen Piscotty? Does Senzel have a chance to play 2B?
Klaw: The guy whose name keeps coming to my mind is Bill Mueller: Solid at third but unspectacular, best attribute was ability to hit. Senzel has more raw power than Mueller ever did, but has yet to show it in games. If you take Senzel 6th, as I have him in my latest mock, and get Bill Mueller (24 WAR, 11 year career), you actually did fairly well but I’m sure you wanted more. Senzel seems to offer the chance of more, though, if the power ever translates into games.

wickethewok: I’m surprised the Pirates are highest on Zack Burdi. Can see Huntington actually taking him in the first round in order to bolster the 2016 bullpen? As a fan, I’d be nervous about the second coming of Daniel Moskos.
Klaw: Fair concern but Burdi’s a lot better – 98-101 right now with a slider at something like 88-91. He could probably miss bats right away, although I don’t think the command is there yet.

BRB: Do you ever pull your punches because you know the guy on the receiving end is a real-life human being?
Klaw: I’m pretty careful about how I phrase criticisms of young players, especially high school kids. A friend told me about nine years ago that he thought I was too critical in my writeups of some teenagers and I worked to tone it down and focus at least as much on what the player can do than on what he can’t.

Zorak: So Eric Longerhagen is now switching teams over to fangraphs. Did you negotiate for anything in return? A promise to stop having Eno’s chat directly compete with yours? Really though, I’ve been impressed with his coverage as a compliment to yours, and wish him all the best.
Klaw: Eric did great work for me and I’m happy he’ll get a chance to do this stuff full-time. I’ve been very lucky over the years to have some great people working with me on the draft blog.

Anthony: What are your thoughts on Pomeranz to start the year? Looks like he’s throwing offspeed stuff much more frequently and added a cutter to his repertoire. Is this success sustainable?
Klaw: I think so. Not a sub-2 ERA guy, of course, but say 3-3.50 the rest of the way (factoring in the friendliness of Petco)? I’d accept that.

Michael: How do you generally respond to fallacies in person, not on Twitter? Someone yesterday equated my lack of skepticism over the NBA lottery being fixed (there’s no evidence) with me not supporting science and math because they are built on skepticism…
Klaw: Same way. Someone throws a fallacious argument at me, I point it out. The alternatives are to try to reason with it (terrible idea) or ignore it and walk away (I’ve done that too).

Or: What’s your read of Ryan Cordell’s start? Is the improvement real?
Klaw: He’s 24 in AA and had half a season there last year too. Tough to get much of a read on him given that.

Eric: Aaron Nola was widely projected to be a good mid-rotation guy, but he’s performed like an ace this season. Do you think his currently level of production is sustainable?
Klaw: Curveball is much improved since the start of 2015. Definitely think he’s a better pitcher now than anyone, myself included, believed he’d be.

Joe: Do you know what the Orioles see in Rickard? I see a below average hitter and fielder. I can’t understand why he plays everyday and bats leadoff.
Klaw: I don’t either. Maybe he plays the game the right way.

Dan: Parenting/Baseball advice needed. My 8 year old son is finishing up his baseball season. He is one of the better players on the team, if not the best – or at least he was. He started the season really strong and was having tons of fun. Now, he has been in a bad slump at the plate and it’s taken a lot of the fun out of it for him. Any tips/advice on how to help him out?
Klaw: I wish I did, but all I could suggest is giving him some time away from the game this summer.

Neudell: How often does a guy you have literally never heard of get drafted within the first few rounds? What is the highest one of these guys has been drafted since you’ve been covering the draft like this?
Klaw: Rangers did it in 2011 with Kevin Matthews at the very end of the first round. He was maybe a fifth-round talent, and walked almost a man an inning in his pro career around TJ surgery, eventually getting released last year after 132 pro innings. I had no notes on him at all when he was picked because none of the scouts I knew down there thought he was worth mentioning.

Mitch: Chris Tillman has notably increased his strikeout rate through 50+ IP this year (and also somewhat flukishly reduced his HR rate). Has he changed something to make the improvement sustainable?
Klaw: The lower HR rate is totally unsustainable and why I’m not buying into the breakout that much.

Jeff: Sup with all this “should the Angels trade Trout?” talk – it ain’t happening.
Klaw: It’s definitely not happening (although I think the idea has merit) and it’s probably time to move on.

DH: You have the Pirates considering Thaiss at 22. Do you think they view him as an option to stay at catcher? If not, does he have enough pop to play a corner?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s a catcher long term. I think he can hit, though.

Neudell: I read an article about a movement afoot to forbid universities from getting athletes to commit until the middle of their junior years. It seems like it will be good for both sides of the equation….kids won’t be trying to decide where to spend their college years when they are 13 or 14; and, schools won’t be racing to land kids who may regress in relation to their peers over the last 2 or 3 years of high school. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: I’m all for that. I’d also like to see the end of the rule that requires players to sit out a year after transferring.

James: Best pop up prospect this year’s draft?
Klaw: Justin Dunn. Jeff Belge. Maybe Taylor Trammell.

Philip: Done is unfair to Longoria, as he still is a strong defender and above average hitter
Klaw: Yes, sorry, in his case I think it’s more a question of how he went from being a 7-WAR player at 23 to half that at 29.

Brian: We all know Dan Vogelbach is a DH. And stats from the PCL aren’t to be trusted. But is Dan Vogelbach worth anything in a trade? Can he be a secondary piece in any kind of meaningful move?
Klaw: Yes, I think he can.

Anonymous: Reading about AJ Puk, how likely do you think his delivery issues will mean he’s a reliever? Scouting the stat line and just a couple of other people’s reports, he looks kind of like Andrew Miller.
Klaw: I’ve heard the Drew Pomeranz comp on him too, another big SEC lefty with some delivery issues. I don’t see Puk as a reliever, but I don’t think he’ll have average command or downhill plane with his current delivery.

Erik: Or how about telling this 540,000 people to grow up. If you don’t like the name, ignore them or root for them to lose. The nickname a football team has zero actual impact on anyone’s life unless they let it bother them
Klaw: Yet there has to be some point at which you’d join the 540,000, right? Would you accept a team with a nickname like the n-word? or a comparable slur against Jews or Asian-Americans or gays? My stance, whether you agree or not, is internally consistent: No slurs as team names.

Nick: What’s your favorite restaurant in Disney World?
Klaw: Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Elton: Aren’t you writing a book or something? Give us some intel please (and other ways to fund you … maybe design a board game?)
Klaw: I am writing a book, due out in April. I believe Harper Collins will announce it when we settle on a title.

Robert: What happens if more people are offended by the team being forced to change its name? I don’t agree with that thinking, but your response indicates the level of people offended by something should be a factor. Someone will argue that works both ways.
Klaw: The idea of “offense” at the removal of an ethnic slur is highly comical.

Ernie Camacho: How much should Bradley Zimmer’s 30% K rate in Akron worry me?
Klaw: It’s keeping him off my top 25 prospects update for next week.

Drew: Biggest concern with K. Lewis ? Like his upside for the Reds but feel that I like Senzel more with his all around game. How strong do you think Reds interest in Delvin Perez ? Thanks
Klaw: I think the Reds are out on Delvin. Lewis’ biggest issue is lack of at bats against good competition. He swings and misses a bit too much and is in a mid-major-at-best conference. I also wish he ran better but that might be a quibble.

Jeff R: Thank you for not sticking to baseball.
Klaw: I couldn’t if I tried.

Ryan: How many players do teams in the late first round truly consider? If they pick 25th, do they just make a list of 25 guys?
Klaw: You have to. Every year I hear of a team that has that happen – they list 25 guys for the 25th pick and 24 of them are taken in picks 1 through 24. In fact, I believe that happened to Cleveland last year, and the only name left was Aiken.

Bo: For someone who finds an awful lot of things to be offended by, and in some situations goes out of his way to be offended by things, you must understand that some people will absolutely take exception to bat flips such as Bautista’s, as they genuinely do consider it taunting. Might not be intended that way, but sometimes it comes across that way.
Klaw: Sure, I absolutely understand that. I personally don’t see it that way. Although your claim that I go out of my way to be offended is really fucking stupid.

Jason: Peter O’Brian anymore than a fourth outfielder?
Klaw: Don’t think so. Bad defender with a below-average hit tool. I don’t have to tell you about the power, though.

RobM: I know you’ve argued that a high school pitcher drafted should sign with a MLB team, but what happens if the pitcher drops due to a non-career-threatening injury, or because weather prevented them from getting properly scouted? Can the argument be made they should then head to college?
Klaw: Yes, that’s also reasonable. If Ian Anderson goes to Vanderbilt he might be 1-1 in three years.

Dave: Have a mail-order coffee roaster recommendation? For bonus points – favorite variety?
Klaw: Too many to name, but I’ll mention Intelligentsia (any time they have Gesha, also loved the Aqua Preta Ltd as an espresso and the current Zambian offering), Four Barrel (Rwanda Musabiymana), or anything from Cartel or Heart.

Drew: One time a few years ago you torched me pretty good in one of your chats. What I did, since I’m a goddamned grown up, is went on with my life because whatever, a guy on the internet said something that stung.
Klaw: Literal LOL at this. Thanks for that – and for still being here despite whatever I did.

Jeff: I’ve heard that before his injury, Cal Quantrill was a potential 1-1 guy in this years draft. Assuming he comes back fine, how high is his ceiling and what makes him exceptional?
Klaw: We think so, but really, who knows if he would have been 1-1? He didn’t pitch so he couldn’t disprove the assertion. Alec Hanson was 1-1 good last spring, and now he’s out of the first round.

Philip: Any thoughts on Jacob Nix from scouts? He’s done well statistically, but obviously can’t just scout statline and he isn’t getting extended beyond 75 pitches
Klaw: Have heard very good things – FB and CB both still there, CH improving.

Erik: Why do you care about a player’s off-field behavior? When I buy tickets I want to see the possible product on the field. As long as they are available on game day, I couldn’t care less what a player may have been accused of. That goes for all fields. If you are among the very best at what you do, we should all want that person doing that job.
Klaw: I care about it if it affects his ability to do that job, may affect his teammates’ ability to do that job, may land him in jail, or may result in harm to another person. I don’t care if he’s just a jerk or a brony or whatever.

JB: I know the chances of Bundy ever returning to starting are slim, but what are the chances he can end up a high leverage reliever?
Klaw: I don’t know what the odds are he becomes something better than what he is now. He looks like a shell of his pre-injury self.

steve: I know you said at the begining of the season Folty might profile as a reliever. Seems impressive the past 3 games. Think he can stick in the rotation. I know you were high on him before.
Klaw: Tiny sample but promising. Same for Jonathan Gray, although there I’m buying a little earlier because this is really what he looked like before the Rockies’ PD folks tinkered with his delivery. (They need to stop doing that.)

Collin: The thing I’m most intrigued about in this draft are the character concerns regarding Delvin Perez. Are they as easily explainable as “he’s so much better than the competition in Puerto Rico he doesn’t have to work as hard as he should,” or is it, “if we give this kid some money he will cash his checks and phone it in?”
Klaw: It’s more that he doesn’t always seem to work hard or take responsibilities seriously, and he’s acted out on the field in ways that aren’t appropriate for a high school senior (like taunting opponents or jawing at an opposing coach). I also think it can all improve with age and getting him with the right coach or teammates. It’s not like he’s a budding sociopath.

AH: Klaw you’re a smart guy and far and away my favorite baseball writer. But How do you manage to attract the Twitter cesspool? Better yet, how does it not drive you insane?
Klaw: Klaw 21 minutes ago

Karla: Not an a question just sharing an essay you might find interesting.
Klaw: Thank you – this looks very interesting.

John: Kevin Newman has struck out 7 times in 143 PA and has a .418 OBP this year. Is it time for him to get called up to AA?
Klaw: I think that’s fair. I’d like to see him hit for some more doubles power, though.

Jay: Have you seen much of Tyler Beede this year? Do you see him potentially being called up later this year? What do you view as his ceiling?
Klaw: I haven’t seen any pro stuff in about a month because it’s all draft all the time right now. I’ll resume seeing pro guys after June 11th. I don’t have Beede as more than an average starter because of the poor fastball command.

addoeh: The theory of trading someone like Trout is worth discussing, like the Gretzky trade or Walker trade. But the practice of actually trading him now isn’t worth discussing. Is that fair?
Klaw: A good summary of the situation. Did the Gretzky trade work out for Edmonton? I can’t recall. The Walker deal worked out for Dallas, I’d say.

Ben: Is there any chance that JB Woodman sneaks into the top 3 Rounds? He’s been on a tear against SEC pitching this year (.340/.434/.640 in conference games), although he did miss Florida and Vandy.
Klaw: And struck out in literally half his at bats on the Cape. He’s not a top three rounds guy.

Brian: Keith, can you explain to me the investigation MLB seems to be making on the Red Sox pooling of international money. I understand the basics, but most of what I read says it’s a fairly common practice and not even against the rules. So why do they even investigate it?
Klaw: Oh it’s against the rules all right. It’s also a common practice but something here triggered an investigation. You can’t circumvent the bonus pool limits by spreading the money across multiple players who then redistribute it after the fact. If that’s what happened, the team will be penalized. The players will not be disciplined, however.

Chris (Chicago): Did you hear any of the new Wolf Parade EP? If so, any thoughts? It’s great that they’re back after their hiatus.
Klaw: Yep, got a track from that on my playlist for the end of this month.

JD: Are you planning to try Pandemic Legacy? Hard to see how you’d fit it in your schedule, but we’re a couple sessions in and it’s phenomenal.
Klaw: I have no interest in a game that requires that many sessions to play. We change up what we play often and I always have more games to review.

Scott: Were you ever a basketball fan growing up?
Klaw: It was my least favorite sport to watch. I preferred soccer to hoops.

Andrew: Thanks for being so outspoken about your anxiety Keith. I actually suffer from bipolar disorder. When your “manic” you can pretty much do anything. My motivation to do things wasn’t always there but it was for the time when the manic episode went away and now I’m back to square one where I lack motivation. Any advice on what I can do to help motivate myself again? The only thing I can think of is possibly getting a girlfriend who I’d want to be my best self for.
Klaw: I’m not a therapist but I think a therapist would say that you have to be able to do this for yourself rather than relying on another person to be your motivation. Exercise and perhaps medication (which you may already be on) seem like two safe bets.

Elton: “Ticket To Slide: My Year of Playing Board Games with Baseball’s Top Prospects in America’s Top Restaurants”. You won’t get a more compelling book title than that.
Klaw: Step 3: Profit.

Chris (Chicago): I have a 6yo daughter that is severely allergic to peanuts. She loves baseball, but we can’t take her to games because our local team has no designated, nut-free section. Her allergy isn’t that uncommon, but baseball doesn’t seem very accommodating yet. How much longer until they get up to speed? My kid feels different enough when she has to sit at the “peanut-free” table at school or can’t eat cake at parties. It just really sucks.
Klaw: I feel like I’ve heard of other teams doing this. Also, have you looked into the microdose treatments for peanut allergies? If my daughter had developed that allergy we were going to pursue the treatment, because of just what you describe. You must be afraid for her all the time.

Scott: As a huge fan of your writing, I look forward to seeing a new article, post and chat both here and other outlets. But I was curious as to your thoughts on the value of your time in writing the revisionist draft history pieces. Is this something you are assigned or something you see as worth examining because it has value to how teams make decisions presently?
Klaw: I find them incredibly fun to revisit. Readers like them and folks within MLB mention enjoying them too. Plus I love some of the old draft stories like the area guy who pounded the table for Chris Archer in Cleveland. (Also, “Cleveland Archer” was the Westchester County DA in the Nero Wolfe stories. I just wanted to mention that.)

Dan: JP Crawford has been walking a ton this year; he’s at 18% BB rate so far. Do you know if this is a concerted effort to walk more this season? Is that a long-term part of his hit tool?
Klaw: He has always had outstanding plate discipline. I’ve been talking that up since he was first in pro ball.

RobM: Don’t let the forces of evil and stupid on Twitter cause you to leave. Most people who follow you are silent but love the content. Remember the good.
Klaw: Thank you. I couldn’t leave. I guess I could tweet less, but I worry I’d miss the good stuff.

Jon: At what point do the Mets give Dom Smith a chance now that his power seems to be coming around? Or is 1B still Duda’s for the foreseeable future?
Klaw: I think next year we see Smith at some point.

Dave: Thanks for the chats. Maybe it’s just my imagination, but you seem to really enjoy the give and take. Anyway, I don’t expect Jackie Bradly Jr.’s to maintain this pace all year. But what do you expect is the new normal for JBJ’s offence and what is he doing different. Thanks
Klaw: I do absolutely enjoy the give and take until someone gets personal (why would I go out of my way to take offense? I just say what I think, nothing more). As for JBJ, it seems like he’s much more aggressive earlier in the count. He’s not the player I thought he’d be – I thought he’d be good, but not this shape of production, more patient with higher contact rather than this less patient more powerful version.

Chris: Seen a couple “Kershaw might be the best pitcher ever” stories of late. Who is the best pitcher of the “modern era” in your opinion?
Klaw: Pedro. But Kershaw’s creepin’.

Vinnie: Would a guy with below average velocity, but excellent movement and command ever get drafted inside the top 10 rounds? i.e., would amateur Greg Maddux be a 30th round pick because of his lack of velo?
Klaw: Maddux threw low 90s as an amateur. But Thomas Eshelman is what you’re talking about and he was a second rounder last year I believe.

Andrew: Would you ever consider working for an MLB team ever again?
Klaw: The career advice I give to people who ask – don’t rule anything out, because you don’t want to close doors on any opportunities you might not expect – applies to me to. I don’t plan on it, but I wouldn’t tell you “no.”

Chris (Chicago): Are Oreos still your kryptonite? I just ate half a sleeve and now feel so much shame.
Klaw: Yeah. Just can’t have them in the house.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be at the SEC tournament next week so the chat day may change. If you’re attending Wednesday or Thursday, I’d love to meet you in person. Enjoy your weekends.

Klawchat 5/12/16.

Sign up for my TinyLetter!

Klaw: This is a low-flying panic attack. Klawchat.

Nick: As a Phillies fan, a lot was made of Nick Williams “improved” plate discipline but since joining the Phillies’ org he’s walked in 3.4% of his PAs. I tried to tell people he had a random spike in May 2015 but they wouldn’t listen… It also got me thinking about Domonic Brown and those two months in 2013. How do you approach these sometimes lengthy statistical spikes in evaluating a player?
Klaw: Now at 18 walks since June 1st of last year in over 400 PA. He can hit and has power, but there’s scant evidence he has any semblance of plate discipline. In his case, I felt somewhat comfortable dismissing or at least downplaying the walk spike because he had three months of playing time after that May bump where his walk rate returned to previously established levels. It’s harder to distinguish when the spike comes in August, or after the All-Star Break, and then it becomes in my mind a question for the scouts: Did the player actually change? Were his mechanics different, or his approach within at bats?

Kevin: I see on your top 100 you have wentz ahead of pint. I have seen both twice this year and agree with you but from what I’ve seen it seems like the industry likes pint more. Do you believe you’re in minority on having wentz above pint? And if so what do you think causes teams to see it this way is it just a pure arm strength bet?
Klaw: I don’t think there’s a strong consensus on this one but it might be 60/40 in favor of Pint, because he throws 100 and you’re not getting fired for taking the guy who throws 100 because if he flops you can always say “but he threw 100!”

Nick: Who are your top sleepers for the draft this year?
Klaw: I don’t know that I have sleepers, but I ranked the top 100 guys with Eric’s help and you might see players higher than you expected on our list. Someone like Ryan Rolison, for example, who I think is an ideal second-pick overpay for a team with lots of money – a polished HS arm with some projection, not a top-10 or top-15 talent by any means but comfortably in the next tier for about half the price of a Pint or Groome.

Paul: I’m a Braves fan. I want Corey Ray. A friend of mine read your Lankford comp and thus is unexcited by him. I presented to him the top 25 position players, by fWAR, from ’95-’98: Bonds, Griffey, Piazza, Bagwell, Biggio, McGwire, Edgar, Knoblauch, Thome, Big Hurt, Vaughn, Lankford, Larkin, Belle, Pudge, ARod, Sosa, Palmeiro, Bernie, Walker, Chipper, Valentin, Lofton, Edmonds, Manny. Seems to me that someone whose 4yr peack performance was right smack dab in the middle of a bunch of HOF’ers, and with a chance to be that for more than 4 years, is something to drool over, and certainly worthy of the 3rd (or 1st) overall pick.
Klaw: I have him ranked 1 right now, and you’ve reasonably well explained my logic. If he’s an above-average regular for five years, that’s a successful outcome. His floor seems pretty high – I’d argue he and Senzel have the highest realistic floors (think pessimistic forecast, but not so pessimistic that you’re thinking he gets hurt or forgets how to play) in the class. Ray has solid upside, maybe fringe star potential, and you’re almost certainly getting an everyday player. Senzel doesn’t seem to have star potential – I think he could be peak Bill Mueller, who was a pretty damn good player but probably never a star – while I think the industry as a whole is most certain of his hit tool out of all bats in the class.

Bryan: Any recent buzz about who the Braves are connected to at 3?
Klaw: All of this stuff is in my top 100 from yesterday – I took all the decent or reliable dope I had and put it in the comments. I’ll do a full mock of the first round next Wednesday. My guess right now is Puk, Senzel, Ray, Groome, Perez for the top five. The Phillies seem to be on Puk, Lewis, Ray, perhaps Senzel, and maybe Moniak but I think that’s more “we really like him, just not at 1.”

Yolo-potato: Out of Moniak, Pint or Groome who is most likely to slip to the Padres at 8? Who do you think is the best out of those 3?
Klaw: Pint most likely. Ranking yesterday has the answer to your second question. I also think they’d jump at Perez if he’s there, or Matt Manning.

Jake: Is Machado now the best player in baseball?
Klaw: No. That player is a National and was just suspended for one game.

Patrick: Do you see josh Ockimey making it to prospect status or just a guy putting up good numbers in Low-A for Red Sox?
Klaw: He’s a prospect. Two Red Sox guys told me in March he was primed for a breakout season, and I saw he’d changed his body quite a bit (in a good way).

Matt: Thoughts on Rio2016 after the Harvard Health report? MLB moved the PR game, but this is a massive difference.
Klaw: They should move the Olympics. No question. Rio was already a disaster before Zika; this should just be the issue that pushes it past the inflection point.

Ryan: I know the swing and miss is the biggest reason you’re more down on Kyle Lewis than most. From what you’ve seen of his swing, is it fixable? Are there things a pro team could do to help him make more contact?
Klaw: It’s not a swing issue.

Steve: In 19 games at AA, Alex Bregman is at .314/.422/.671, with 7 HRs. Could he be in Houston soon? Where would they play him?
Klaw: I think he could play in the big leagues right now. I have no idea where they’d put him; his arm is going to be light for third base, but where else is there room?

Kevin: What is your opinion on Thomas Pnychon? I found Gravity’s Rainbow a slog to get through, but Mason & Dixon was a joy. Irrelevant, funny and fantastical.
Klaw: I loved Inherent Vice, loathed Gravity’s Rainbow, and just did not understand Lot 49.

Lyle: Dalton Kelly – 38th round pick out of UCSB for Seattle has a line of 355/442/464 in the MWL. (The MWL!) Anything of interest here? Or is he Just A Guy who’s had a hot month?
Klaw: You have got to look at the ages on these guys. He’s a 21-nearly-22-year-old college product in low A.

Jeff: Do you think a pitchers stats at the plate should be weighed when voting for Cy Young?
Klaw: No, of course not.

Jeff: Obviously Tyler Wilson isn’t this good and his BABIP and ERA will go up soon. What do you think his future is?
Klaw: Fifth starter. Below league-average. Doesn’t hurt that a third of his innings this year have come against the Twins.

Brian: Hello Keith, thanks for answering our questions. If you are Brian Cashman, which option would you choose to deal with Severino at this time. It is still early and it may or may not be a SSS but.. do you send him down to work on mechanics. ? Or do you leave him up here and try long relief or just keep the status quo and hope for the best ?
Klaw: Do they have a rotation replacement for him? If long relief were an option, I’d rather see that than send him down to dominate AAA hitters again. He’s already done that. Put him somewhere where he’ll be challenged and, if you trust your big league coaching staff, he can work with those coaches on whatever’s ailing him. I don’t have an easy answer; I can see his stuff is flat and up a lot, but is that mechanical? His delivery is the same (I’ve never liked it) as last year, right?

Raymond Gotha II: Klaw, my first time making it over to the new format!! Has your outlook on the Softball O’s changed?
Klaw: I think they’re a .500 team, which is about what they’ve been after the winning streak ended. The pitching is just too light. Gausman’s been better, although he should still miss a lot more bats with his stuff. Tillman’s not going to give up a homer every 40 innings all year.

Ben: What was your impression of Brandon Waddell coming out of Virginia? And have his first 40 IP this year made him worth watching going forward?
Klaw: Just a guy. Throws strikes, fringy stuff.

Jon: Glasnow and Taillon have been getting all the attention, but Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault have been putting up excellent numbers for Indianapolis this season. Do the Pirates have anything coming with those guys as well?
Klaw: Kuhl’s a prospect as a two-pitch reliever. Brault maybe less. Glasnow and Taillon get the attention because they profile as starters, and I’d bet one or both are up by this time next month.

AA Battery: Still SSS this year, but adding last year is it time to think that Puig won’t be able to really figure it out? Just can’t seem to stop swinging and missing…
Klaw: Can’t seem to hit a good fastball any more. Is it conditioning? Approach? Hard to believe he’s no longer the player he was in his first two seasons but you can absolutely pitch to him now.

Al: Do you think Oakland could go with a HS player like Moniak, Manning, Rutherford at #6?
Klaw: I have only heard them with college bats.

Bruce: You dont really talk about craft beer as much as food. Are you just not much of a beer drinker?
Klaw: I love beer. It doesn’t love me back.

Brian: Curious if you read jim bowden’s article up today about mlb execs and proposals for the new CBA. specifically related to the draft eligible players some GMs think players should have to “opt-in” so teams don’t lose picks when they decide to go back to school instead of signing. the other was to assign a set $ to each pick in the draft as opposed to a sliding pool. Pretty obvious both those proposals clearly benefit one side while screwing over the other. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: You lost me in your first seven words.

Kyle S: Can an MLB team legitimately tank? The players are playing hard because they want future jobs, the coaches and manager are in the same boat. Top picks aren’t guaranteed to be a future success so isn’t it at best a very risky proposal?
Klaw: I agree. It’s not “tanking” in the sense that the Sixers have been tanking since before I moved here. It’s actually the correct strategy for a non-contender given the current CBA in baseball.

darius: What is your view on Jameson Taillon, and has it changed with his strong AAA start? Strong 2? Potential 1 as a starter?
Klaw: A two. Never saw the command or changeup for an ace. Has size, velocity, potential out pitch in the slider. Kid’s a worker too. Really pulling for him this year after the disappointment of 2015.

Bret: What are your thoughts on the election going on in the States?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about this.

Eric: Keith, what do you know about Brent Honeywell besides having a sweet name it seems he also has a sweet screwball. He is dominating in advanced A Ball right now, do you know of any other top 100 prospects over the last few years that featured a screwball as his top secondary pitch? How would you rate his potential possible #2 starter?
Klaw: The Rays have deemphasized his screwball, so he’s more than just a novelty guy (he was that in college, though, so you’re not off base). I don’t think he rates quite that high; all the scouts I asked about him in the offseason had him as somewhere around a 4th starter.

Chris: The Mets seem to move their young hitters slowly through minors. Conforto spent some extra time in Brooklyn, Smith did a full year in High-A, and Rosario currently sticking around Port St. Lucie. Is this reflective of an organizational approach? Do you think it’s productive to let young guys get to the point of killing competition before being promoted?
Klaw: Conforto was a total cock-up. They’re just lucky he’s as good as he is because they mishandled him from day one. Smith is still very young for AA, and while Rosario should be in Binghamton now, he won’t be old for that level either. I don’t have a problem with how either of those guys have been handled.

K Welzein: I know the results are SSS, but is there anything you have seen in Almedys Diaz mechanically or in his approach at the plate that suggests he can be a regular to slightly above-average regular offensively for the Cardinals?
Klaw: Actually I’d just argue that anyone who can put the ball in play this often and play a competent middle infield is a regular. Even at a league-average BABIP, which would be much more in line with his time in the minors, he’d be that.

Matias: How is it possible that Bradley Jr went from being “trash”, talked about a potential trade for a mediocre Mariners reliever, to this exciting player that is putting great numbers, with some pop? Between the last months of last season and this start, we cant say its small sample size, right?
Klaw: Well, he was never trash, right? People buried him based on what was still a small sample but didn’t look like one. The part that’s surprising to me is that he’s hitting for average AND power. I thought he could do one or the other. I still kind of think with his low contact rate, he’s going to see the average drop, and he kind of has to sell out a little bit to get to this power. I’d rather see him cut down on the swing a little to improve his contact rate, but that’s kind of a stupid criticism when the guy is hitting .322 and slugging .610.

Ants: Given his start, is Tyler O’Neill now the #1 Mariners prospect? Would he crack in to the top 100 if re-evaulated today?
Klaw: I’ll accept the case for him as their top guy, given who else is/was ahead of him. His power is legit; it was the one thing I saw from him on the positive side in Fall League. But we’re still firmly in SSS territory and I’d like to see him maintain this better plate discipline for a full year, especially since he is right field only and has to hit to be an impact guy. (That sounds too negative. He’s definitely a prospect.)

Joey Butts: You’re an MLB GM. You’re interested in a potential draft pick that had previously been accused (but not convicted) of a serious domestic violence crime. What would the player have to say or do wherein you would feel okay in drafting him?
Klaw: Nothing. I’m out. Men who do that, or who sexually assault women, are not fixable.

Guesto: Any noteworthy prospects out of the state of Louisiana on your radar? LSU, Tulane, UNO are pretty good programs this season.
Klaw: Not for this draft. Good programs, yes, but not draft prospects.

Anonymous: Do you think Byron Buxton will pain out?
Klaw: I think he’ll pan out. He may cause Twins fans some pain until he does.

Kevin: Are Delvin Perez’s makeup concerns about maturity or are they of the Matt Bush variety?
Klaw: Maturity. Bush’s makeup turned out to be so much worse than I’d ever heard before he was drafted.

Marshall: Klaw great work by you and Longenhagen getting the top 100 together. You have (I think you have at least) characterized the draft a little weak at the top as compared to other years. What if any, are the strengths of this draft as compared to years past?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Paille: Can’t remember you ever wavering on J Bradley Jr as a starting major league center fielder
Klaw: Thank you, I don’t think I did. Weird thing is that I think UZR has his defense below average so far this year (very SSS). I thought he was a 7 defender out there, easy like Sunday morning.

addoeh: Are the number of years the biggest holdup for a Arrieta deal with the Cubs? I figure Cubs looking at 4-5 years with Arrieta 6-7 years.
Klaw: Seems like Arrieta wants free agent money/length which would be 6-8 years and there is no shot IMO the cubs do that.

wrburgess: Do you still see Amir Garrett and Daniel Mengden as bullpen guys? Is the SSS still too small to change the perspective?
Klaw: Did I? I thought I gave both guys a chance to start. Mengden is more command than stuff; Garrett more stuff than command or feel.

Mark: Dylan Cozens showing impressive power and decent walks rates but still striking out a little too much. Is he doing enough to warrant discussion as the Phillies RF of the future?
Klaw: No. And he’s basically doing it all at Reading, which is a good HR park.

Garrett: Having seemingly learn from the Peraza mistake, it looks like the Braves are letting Albies and Swanson each play SS until they are forced to make a decision. In there anything besides positional scarcity and future financials that makes it truly matter where either ends up?
Klaw: Not really. I think both could handle it.

Kay: Gsellman & Ynoa – useful pieces, despite very low K #s? Or just no place to make use of them on a crowded staff – they don’t strike me as ideal relievers.
Klaw: Useful pieces. Maybe as trade bait. Gsellman’s picked up a little velo now and it’s easier to buy him as a starter in the low 90s.

Matt: How often do players actually give a “hometown discount” to a team that happened to draft them- in reference to some criticism Arrieta seems to be taking over his refusal to offer such discounting?
Klaw: Very rare, and honestly, fuck off with demanding someone else take less money from a billionaire owner just to make some guy a happy fan.

BD: Brian Goodwin is at .330/.393/.500 at AAA. 25 yrs old. Back to being a prospect to you?
Klaw: No, not at that age and after three full years of failure, including a failed stint in AAA in 2014 and a demotion last year. I’d need more than 119 AB to buy back in.

Ben: Is it wrong to assume that Oakland favors college players? They’ve drafted HS players high in the past.
Klaw: I’m not assuming anything. That’s not how I do this. I talk to lots of sources to find out which teams are on which players.

Aaron: Kyle Zimmer. I know there is a lot of swing and miss there. But isn’t he better than anything else Cleveland is running out there?
Klaw: That would be Brad and he’s not ready for major league pitching.

Anonymous: Does Moncada make his debut in the majors this year and have a chance to compete for a full time job next year or should I add a year to both those?
Klaw: Add at least a year.

Fritz: How do you feel about A Moon Shaped Pool? Best since In Rainbows? Dismissed for lack of hyphens in the title?
Klaw: No idea. It’s not on Spotify and I don’t subscribe to those other services.

Kevin: Casey Gillaspie hitting .312 /.458/.570 in AA… hot start or something real?
Klaw: This might be something real. He’s doing everything that scouts who liked him in college (I did not, full disclosure) expected him to do, and he’s controlling the strike zone extremely well. Definitely bears watching.

Adam: How low would Groome have to get drafted to wind up at Vanderbilt?
Klaw: Not happening. Ignore the local media – some of those writers have been talking out of their asses this spring. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Justin R: Do you have any interest in murder mysteries/potboilers or not your genre?
Klaw: Yep, love Agatha Christie, Rex Stout, etc. Got two Lord Wimsey mysteries on my Kindle app now.

Anonymous: As a Phillies fan, I’m all aboard the Corey Ray Train. Do think they could get him for under slot and use the extra money in the later rounds?
Klaw: No one is getting full slot at 1-1. It’s a question for the Phillies of who’ll save them the most money relative to their valuation of the player – would you rather have Ray at $6 million or Senzel at $7 million or Puk at $5 million? (I made those numbers up, BTW.)

Steve: Zika is going to be in many places in the US this summer. Should they cancel the MLB season?
Klaw: I’ve spoken to a few experts about this one. Yes, Zika is coming. But we have much better mosquito-fighting programs here, and – here’s where I learned something – we have air conditioning, which drastically curtails the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses.

Aaron: How long do you leave Buxton at AAA? Is this a skill issue or confidence issue?
Klaw: I think it was a confidence issue. Don’t rush him back up. The major-league team isn’t going anywhere. But I wish they’d kept Kepler up to get those at bats.

John: Any chance Dylan Carlson sneaks into supp round?
Klaw: Yes but I think that’s a reach for a power-before-bat 1b-only guy. I had him at 100 on the list.

Scrapper: This stuff about Trea Turner needing to work on stuff is just “blah, blah, blah” shorthand for service time considerations, right? Why am I feeling differently about this than Kris Bryant’s 9 days last year?
Klaw: Yes. And because two months of Turner is a lot bigger deal than nine days of Bryant. If the Mets edge the Nats by a game for the division title, Nats fans will have reason to look at this decision with rage.

Anthony: Keith, rhp Luca Dalatri threw last night in the NJ championship game. He picking up any steam for the draft? A lot of scouts there.
Klaw: No, he’s a college guy.

J Shep: Do you think Nyquist wins the Preakness? If not, got a sleeper?
Klaw: I am not concerned with the Preakness, and the Preakness will not be concerned with me.

Brian: To offer us some context on this draft class, would the guys in the discussion for the top couple picks have been in the top 5 or top 10 in previous drafts?
Klaw: Yes. But I don’t think the guys in the mix for 1-1 would have been in the mix for that spot in any draft since 2006’s.

Guesto: What’s Trevor May’s outlook going forward? Pitching only out of the bullpen for the Twins, but he’s 26 and was valued at roughly 2 WAR in 2015 (when he made 16 starts). He’s a good bullpen arm, but feels like wasted talent by not starting.
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. Has never shown the command to start.

Nick: Does Zack Collins to the Indians make sense? I know you don’t draft on need, but based on the few write-ups I have read he seems like someone who could move to a position like 1B rather quickly, and could help out a team like Cleveland that needs bats.
Klaw: It makes sense, they like him, but I don’t think he gets to them.

Jack: Does AJ Puk have a chance to be a number 1 in your opinion?
Klaw: No. However, I’m going to Gainesville Friday and Saturday and will see at least part of Puk’s start on Saturday before my flight back.

Josh: You were one of the first well-known baseball writers to get on the Schoop train. Still a believer, and is he a potential multi GG winner at 2B?
Klaw: Still a believer. Not sure about Gold Gloves though. He’s got to hit enough to win one of those.

Matthias: Do you have a go-to technique for duck breasts? I can get a result that is decent, and certainly better than chicken breasts, but not as good as the price would warrant. Related: made my first duck stock with carcass/bones from butchering a whole duck and holy crap! I did not realize that stock could be solid at room temperature.
Klaw: Best stock you’ll ever make. I sear duck breasts. I want to try to sous vide them some time, because getting them perfect in the center while searing them enough to get the skin crispy is a pain in the ass.

James: Keith, do you believe it should fall on the NFHS and NCAA to take better precautions to protect young pitchers from irreparable harm? I realize that kids are still going to blow out their arms, but isn’t it time for better regulations to at least limit the occurrences?
Klaw: Yes, it is. States are moving in this direction and I’d like to see the NCAA follow suit.

Kevin: Christian Stewart has had big power so far in Lakeland for the Tigers high A. Will he hit enough to be an everyday regular at a corner spot or is he more 4th OF type?
Klaw: I think he’s an everyday player. Power over hit, but enough hit to get there.

Josh: Do any of the international signings have a chance to be within the top 100 after signing in July?
Klaw: Unlikely. Maitan, maybe, but scouts I’ve talked to who’ve seen him say he’s the best prospect in VZ/DR this year but don’t speak of him the way they spoke of Sano in his signing year.

Dan-NJ: There is plenty awritten about the velocity of Benintendi moving through the ranks. He’s obviously overmatching A. Same w/ Rodgers – COL, but you don’t hear the same. Is it all about age/experience (SEC v. HS)? IMO, I would move both at the same speed if their results warranted.
Klaw: Well, one plays for Boston, and the other plays for … um … wait, I know this one …

Sean: KLAW – Ketel Marte has sure been a pleasant surprise for us Mariner fans that are used to all prospects going bust. He looks decent with the stick and able to play SS decently to my untrained eyes – what say you, Klaw?
Klaw: Breakout pick for me this year. I was too light on him as a prospect – he can really play short.

Sean: KLAW – SSS of course, but Zunino is hitting again! Is there still a player there?
Klaw: I think so. Rushed to the majors, got really worn down by catching. Good for the M’s for hanging on to him rather than giving up.

Bobby Evans: Should I be excited about my upcoming farm arm in rhp Sam Coonrod?
Klaw: Good reliever.

Alex: Why don’t big money teams go over the draft bonus pool like some do in the J2 signing? Losing a first round the next year and the 100% tax isn’t that tough when you have money to blow. Plus teams know more about draft prospects than the international prospects.
Klaw: I’ve asked this and been asked this and don’t have a great answer. I wonder if any team would call an audible, so to speak, before day two if an elite talent were just sitting there unpicked after day one, and decide to take him even if it meant punting on the following draft.

Matt: On Bregman, I don’t know anything about his defensive abilities, but the numbers say that Correa has not been a great defensive SS in the Majors. Any chance they could move Correa to 3B and have Bregman play SS?
Klaw: I’m defaulting to my old assessment of Correa’s future, which was that he’d be better off at third base. He did work his tail off to stay at short, but he might be elite at third. Worked out OK for Machado, at least.

Jeremy: Played 7 Wonders for the first time and was thoroughly confused by the instructions. Being a person who games a lot, do you have a go-to method for figuring out confusing rules?
Klaw: That game might have the most complicated written instructions for a game that’s actually quite simple and plays in under an hour. Usually we play once, screw up, and then go to Boardgamegeek to look at the Rules threads on the game.

KJ: Do you have a problem with Bryce Harper using naughty words?
Klaw: No. But I have a problem with him seeking out an ump postgame and saying what he said to that ump in full view of a camera.

Benny: Have you or Eric personally seen everyone on the top 100, or do you rely on the evaluations of your peers in the scouting community to rank the guys near the bottom of the list?
Klaw: Definitely haven’t seen everyone – impossible to see some of the pop-up guys lower down the list – but between last summer and this spring I think the only top 25 guy neither of us will see is Quantrill, who hasn’t pitched at all after TJ. Ian Anderson is the top guy I won’t see personally, I think, because he’s made just one official appearance around weather and his bout of pneumonia.

Marshall: At what point in your mind does SSS stop being a sample and simply becoming true reality …more than 150 at bats?
Klaw: Oh yeah. Double that and we can talk.

Sterling: Is Archie Bradley a AAAA pitcher, or do you still have faith? He can’t seem to get big league hitters to whiff.
Klaw: Put him in the 7th inning and tell him to air it out, fastball/curveball.

Raymond Gotha II: Did you ever see this type of potential out of Machado? I’m from B-More and I myself only saw something more like 300/350/475 with like 25 hr or so. I guess I was less dubious that the line drive and doubles power was gonna turn into 40hr power
Klaw: Loved him as an amateur – I ranked him 2nd in the class after Harper, over Taillon. Called him A-Rod Lite.

Ben: Reaction to Edwin Diaz’s conversion to RP?
Klaw: Expected. Think he could be very good there.

Travis: Is it still likely that Xander turns in to a 20 HR guy?
Klaw: I believe he will.

Bill: Have you heard any recent news on Kevin Maitan and the Braves? Are they still likely to sign him? Thanks.
Klaw: This has been locked in for a year already.

Jake: Where would Seth Beer have ranked?
Klaw: Impossible to say. If he were eligible, he’d be a nearly 20-year-old HS player and we’d all be downgrading him for that.

Alex: Re Louisiana prospects: Jake Rogers and Stephan Alemais at Tulane seems to be getting a fair share of love draft wise. You don’t see them as draft prospects?
Klaw: No, not in the top three rounds certainly.

Kevin: What college has the best baseball facilities that you have visited?
Klaw: LSU’s are ridiculous. They’re better than some MLB spring training facilities.

Hogie: Drew Ward at .301/.388/.549 . Still only 21. Back to being a prospect for you? If no- whats he gotta do?
Klaw: No. Repeating the level. Still needs to go to 1b.

Kay: Did I see you post something about Dylan Bundy throwing ~300 pitches as an amateur? How does that happen? I get that not every kid is gonna be a pro – but there are definitely going to be a few who never make it because of stupidity like this.
Klaw: Over the course of a 3-4 day tournament, yes. His dad would often brag about how Dylan had built up for this workload. Now the kid has calcification in his shoulder and can’t miss a bat. Orioles need to try to pass him through optional waivers so he can go to AAA.

Brad: Any chance Atlanta could get two of Will Benson, Lowe and Keiboom at 40 and 44?
Klaw: I think that’s very unlikely.

Michael: When a player like Kevin Pillar gets drafted so late and is never labeled a top prospect, do you consider that a scouting failure or just the randomness of the job?
Klaw: Just the randomness of the job. He’s got a .305 career OBP in the majors; he has to be an elite defensive CF to be anything at all.

Mike: Anything new on Cal Quantrill?
Klaw: Yes, in the top 100 post. You should read that. I spent a lot of time on it.

Tom: Already this season, Archer has reference “Of Mice and Men” and “Encyclopedia Brown.” If they feature “Animal Farm” and “The Great Brain” before season’s end, I might spontaneously combust.
Klaw: I gave up on the show with the Vice season.

Mike: Your description of Dylan Carlson sounds a lot like your feelings on Rowdy Tellez, who came out of the same high school. Do you see them as comparable players?
Klaw: No. Tellez was awful. DH only with power and no bat speed.

Tom: Level of 1 to PANIC how should I feel about Matz having forearm issues and missing his next start?
Klaw: It’s never good when a guy who’s had trouble staying healthy has another arm issue.

Jay: Did you hear that smelling farts can cure cancer?
Klaw: One study showed that reading Klawchat every week can make you last 30% longer in bed. Science is never wrong!

Ants: Have you read Ann Leckie’s Imperial Radch trilogy? Thoughts?
Klaw: I thought Ancillary Justice was OK and haven’t read the rest.

Michael: The guys on the radio are saying Xander has to hit 20 home runs to be really good. What should I do with my radio?
Klaw: I don’t even own a radio.

Dave: You were high on Alec Hansen last November and have moved him down in your rankings after a lousy spring. How hard is it to know what you are going from him?
Klaw: You don’t until someone gets to check him out physically and see if there’s an injury behind the awful performance.

MTM: Gonsalves is slaying people in high A. Projections for him?
Klaw: Unchanged. Back-end starter. FB-CH, below avg breaking ball.

Greg: Does Ian Anderson fall in the draft because of his lack of pitching this spring? I wonder how much his short season will affect his stock, since his health woes weren’t related to his mechanics at all
Klaw: I have heard he could still go very high, because he was so good last summer, but yeah, it’s hard to go to your owner and say you want to give a kid $3 million based on ten innings of scouting.

Ridley Kemp: Have you ever been so repulsed by a book you just couldn’t finish it? That was Henry and June for me.
Klaw: Running With Scissors. Not so much that it was graphic, but that it was pandering. I finished Naked Lunch and Tropic of Cancer but didn’t like either of them.

forever it: Alex Verdugo killing it in AA as a 19-year-old. Has his ceiling risen for you since the start of the year?
Klaw: Nope. Because … wait for it … SSS.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week. Thanks as always for the questions. I’ll have the 2006 redraft column up on Monday, my first “mock” first-round projection on Wednesday, and another chat next Thursday. Hope to see a few of you in Gainesville this weekend.

Klawchat 5/5/16.

Klaw: An afterlife for a silverfish? No, just Klawchat.

Shane: Will Amed Rosario be a top 50 prospect by end of the season?
Klaw: I think he already was one. We do need to see him promoted rather than beating up a league he already faced last season.

Bob: A couple of colleagues on your network who will remain unnamed (PTI) were speculating yesterday about how many games the Cubs might win. 116? 118? Hey, they’re good and already have 20 wins in the bank but c’mon.
Klaw: Yeah, that’s not your source for baseball analysis. Were they also projecting the Phillies to win 90+?

Josh: How much stock do you put in the July 2 international player rankings? I imagine there is even more variance there with how individual teams value specific players than in the Rule 4 draft
Klaw: Very little, but I’m not criticizing the guys who put those rankings together – you’re talking about mostly 15-year-olds, sometimes kids who haven’t been seen in months because they’ve been locked up already with various not-that-legal deals. It’s an impossible ask.

Aaron S: Heard anything on Harrison Bader? Seems to be doing well at AA after a double promotion and first year after being drafted. Was also one of the 10 youngest AA players at the beginning of the year
Klaw: Problem is he’s not a CF. I think he can hit some, but he’s going to have to rake (and what he’s done so far is very flukish) to be a regular in a corner.

Zach B: How much do you get to scout international prospects given how much time you dedicate to the amateur draft and minor league systems?
Klaw: I see them when they sign. There’s very little value in seeing July 2nd guys now when it’s probably two years before they’re even on the pro prospect radar.

Jack: Any rumors on who the phillies might target with their second round pick?
Klaw: No, nor do I expect to hear anything on picks in the 40s and 50s.

Adam: What is Ben Gamel’s ceiling?
Klaw: Probably everyday player.

Teddy Roosevelt: If I said Phillies took Puk, Reds took Lewis and Braves took Ray, your reaction would be: “absolutely!”, “meh”, or “but, but Groome….”?
Klaw: Lewis at 2 is a reach for me. But if you said Puk-Senzel-Ray, I’d say “OK” and assume the Rockies would take Groome. Lewis has the upside, but he swings and misses too often against bad competition for me to see him as a #2 pick. I’m lighter on him and Senzel than the industry.

Me (Not You): Are we nearing a reappraisal of Lindor now that he’s continuing to hit so well? I knew you were never all that low on his bat, mind you, but this level of offense could allow him to sneak into MVP consideration some years, and that seems surprising.
Klaw: I had him as a top ten prospect in baseball, so I think he’s within the range of what I expected from him. Now, if he hits 20 HR this year, that would be surprising, and yes he’d be a solid MVP candidate if he becomes that kind of guy.

Kareem: Tyler Danish seems to be making some strides repeating AA, is he still solely projectable as a RP?
Klaw: I can’t see him as a starter with that delivery or going through a lineup 3x with his stuff. I could see him as a really effective long guy like Adam Warren last year, making some spot starts, but mostly going through lineups once and getting groundballs.

Keith: Is Severino having issues based on your scouting report ?
Klaw: If you’re saying did my evaluation predict what’s happening now, I think that’s too facile. His stuff looks very straight and mostly up in the zone right now, though, and that is at least partly related to the delivery.

James: With Rutherford already being 19 and Moniak being 17 (for another week), how much would teams value that when drafting?
Klaw: I think most teams have Moniak over Rutherford right now, because Moniak is the better overall athlete AND because he’s over a year younger.

Dylan: Thoughts on the new Radiohead song?
Klaw: It’s certainly interesting.

Joe: Thoughts on Will Craig? 1st round?
Klaw: No. Second round. Grooved swing, feasts a lot on bad pitching, no position.

Anonymous: Isn’t it time to move Benintendi up?
Klaw: It’s been a month, and I don’t object to a team saying a guy should get around the league a little longer before a promotion. He’s not going to spend all year in high-A.

John: Any new information on how Delvin Perez is doing? Are the Reds in on him at #2?
Klaw: I mentioned him in my post this morning. I heard the Reds were in heavy at Caguas this week to watch him.

Kevin: Is Zack Collins gonna go in the top 15, considering his Schwarber-like profile?
Klaw: He’s not like Schwarber, but I’ve heard two teams specifically on him in the top ten, Oakland and possibly the White Sox.

Joetown, CO: I realize the old stat of Total Average isn’t perfect, but isn’t it much better than OPS? Why shouldn’t it be the most common standard of a batter’s production?
Klaw: It’s garbage. Just throwing a bunch of numbers together with no regard to whether they even belong in the equation, let alone whether they’re weighted appropriately.

Konrad: Who can you see the Brewers taking with their first round pick this year?
Klaw: Best player available. That could be Ray, Delvin, maybe Lewis or Senzel. Don’t see Groome getting there. Don’t think they’d take Pint. I wonder if they’d consider Manning, as Ray Montgomery isn’t afraid to take a high-ceiling prep arm.

Dad: Any scenario (besides strategic $ allocation/signability) in which a team should ever go against BPA in the draft?
Klaw: No, you named the only one. And even then, in hindsight, did the Royals do well to reach for Dozier at 8 so they could get Manaea at 34? Dozier is repeating AA now, and may not be anything, while Manaea was a useful trade piece but not quite as good as expected. And at the time that seemed like a really smart strategy on their part.

John: Hey Keith! Thanks for everything that you do for us readers. I was curious if you had considered doing your own podcast like Joe Posnanski does. I really enjoyed it when you had yours through ESPN. Thanks!
Klaw: I have no spare time right now for anything new.

jimmy: Are you concerned about Shelby Miller or Zack Greinke’s starts?
Klaw: Miller I’m concerned about – he doesn’t look right. I wonder if he’s hurt, or at least physically off. Greinke I think will be fine.

Shelby: Is Oakland only targeting college hitters at 6?
Klaw: I think that’s their preference, likely Senzel or Collins, although they had a bunch of guys there to see Manning (who’s local to them, so it’s easier to just drive up to watch him) on Monday when I was there.

Joshua: Keith, what numbers would you see Trea Turner putting up if he were brought up tomorrow? Obviously one answer is “better than Espinosa”, but how much better? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he could post a .340 OBP, steal a bunch of bases, and play above average defense at short right now. That’s worlds better than the zero they’re getting.

Formerly the Smasher: Could the Jays be a landing spot for Ryan Braun?
Klaw: Doubt it. They don’t appear to be a team that’s looking to take on any money, much less a bad contract.

Eric: When scouting amateur pitchers, what is the first thing you look for? Throwing strikes? Stuff?
Klaw: Stuff is the first thing you see, but if the delivery’s bad, I’m a lot less interested.

Dan B: Met you on Market St in Philly this past weekend. Thanks again for the time. Do you think Tommy Joseph can be an average major league first baseman?
Klaw: Yep, good to meet you too – you caught me right as I was stepping into High Street for lunch. I do not think that on Joseph, and he’s got no history of staying healthy, unfortunately.

Joshua: Keith, I saw that you were recently in Sacramento and went to Magpies and enjoyed it. What did you get there, I’ve been meaning to go since they recently moved to that location. Thanks.
Klaw: Pork belly starter, duck confit salad, ice cream sandwich. Hard to beat that.

Kyle: Is this the weakest crop of college pitchers… Ever? Sheffield and Hudson seem to be the consensus 2 and 3 behind Puk, what with Krook/Hansen/Jefferies falling apart or getting hurt. A 6’0″ TJS guy as the best or second-best NCAA pitcher is hard to believe.
Klaw: Don’t agree on Sheffield as 2 or 3. He’s a reliever all the way. I’ve got Sedlock at Illinois over him, and Connor Jones too despite inferior stuff because he can sink it and has starter size. Dane Dunning might be better. Robert Tyler’s got comparable stuff and has a better frame. But yes, the college starter crop is all kinds of terrible. Keep an eye on Corbin Burnes at St. Mary’s – i think he’ll go sooner than we expect because someone will say they’d prefer the safety of the college pitcher to the risk of the high school guy.

Almost Dad: My wife is due in two months. Mother’s day is Sunday. Good move or bad move to recognize her this weekend? I can see +’s and -‘s of each.
Klaw: Good move. Or, bad move to fail to do so, one you will hear about for the next fifty years. Also congratulations.

Mike: Thoughts on Drake Fellows? Top 3 rounds?
Klaw: No, don’t see that.

Jason: This is probably a dumb question, but what do teams do with 16 year olds kids they draft? Do they throw them into Rookie ball? Or do they keep them in extended spring training?
Klaw: Instructs in September, extended spring the following April/May, then rookie ball (GCL or AZL). Rinse, repeat.

Adam: Rumor is Braves want draft picks even if they take on bad contracts…..if they were to take on Braun to get Lucroy and that end of 1st pick what do you think they would have to give up? Newcomb?
Klaw: This isn’t a rumor, nor did I find it newsworthy – almost every team drafting up top wants more picks so they can spread the money around. The Brewers do not have an end of 1st pick they can trade.

Adam: How does Groome compare to Beckett out of High School?
Klaw: Beckett is before my time.

Andrew: With Garret Richards now having some sort of injury, should the Angels sign Tim Lincecum?
Klaw: He’s not going to start, and unless Timmy Jim comes out throwing 92-94 tomorrow I doubt he’s going to get many major-league offers.

Joetown, CO: It’s far less garbage than the illogical OPS and most meaningless batting average. It’s biggest flaw is not weighting a single more than a walk, but otherwise, it tells you how many bases a batter is good for per plate appearance. That’s better than garbage and much better than most stats most commonly used now.
Klaw: No, it’s actually worse than OPS, and that’s saying something. It treats a stolen base the same as a single. It penalizes a hitter for each GIDP, so the same hitter will have a lower TA just because he’s got a slow runner who gets on base a lot hitting in front of him. It’s a brain-dead stat, one that sounds good but makes no logical sense.

Ciscoskid: So Magpie, how was it? I would have sent you to 4 other places had I known. Were you here for the Boras Classic?
Klaw: It was absolutely superb. I doubt I could have had a better meal. I was there Monday to see Matt Manning pitch.

Honest Abe: Is Dave Stewart gonna look at Blair’s numbers at the end of the year, then glance at Shelby’s and then throw his laptop against the wall?
Klaw: I don’t think Stew is the looking-at-numbers sort.

Aa: Where do you think high school teammates, Luca Dalatri and Brandon Martorano, will be picked in the draft?
Klaw: Way below the range I cover.

Richie: I’m not wuite sure what to make of Wuilmer Becerra. On the one hand he’s hitting .400 and his k and bb rates are showing good signs…..on the other hand he’s a supposed power bat who has just 1 hr in his last 73 gms. Should we be concerned, excited, a little of both?
Klaw: Those last 73 games came largely in two homer-suppressing ballparks. He’s also still 21.

Rob: Jose Quintana, probably the most underrated pitcher in the mlb. Gets better and better. Adam Eaton is another White Sox player that flies under the radar.
Klaw: This is Klawchat. This is not RobChat. Try again, this time with a question in there somewhere.

Eric Johnson: Can King Felix survive at 90?
Klaw: Come on, he’s not that old.

Jack: Are the phillies locked in on Puk? Or do they not know yet?
Klaw: They do not know. Nor should they, given the date – it’s may 5th, in case you didn’t know – and the draft class this year.

AD: Ronald Guzman—is his start for real or just SSS? Have you gotten any scouting reports on him?
Klaw: It’s 22 games. Also it’s May 5th.

JR: Feels like there has been a lot of talk about “tanking” this year, I’ve seen a few columns from Buster and others being critical of the strategy. What are your thoughts? I would prefer my team tank and have the opportunity at a high ceiling in a few years, as opposed to signing vets and doom your team to being stuck in middle (not good enough to make postseason, not bad enough to get high draft pick).
Klaw: I don’t think of it as “tanking” like in the NBA, but the current rules around MLB’s draft and international spending provide tremendous incentive for teams to do what the Astros did and now Atlanta, the Brewers, and the Phillies are doing. There is no point in spending money just to get from 68 wins to 72.

Mark: Have you heard any reports about Giolito this Spring? Tiny sample size, but he’s struggled a bit in AA, and I was wondering if he was focusing on the changeup, and/or if he’d had any dip in velocity.
Klaw: I heard Maddux tinkered with his delivery, which, if true, would be the dumbest fucking thing I have ever heard of a pitching coach doing with a prospect, because Giolito’s delivery did not need tinkering.

DanO: Any insight on what the Mets are looking for since they have 2 picks in Round 1? They don’t appear to lean heavily in any one direction from year to year. Nimmo/Cecchini/Smith vs. Conforto.
Klaw: Nimmo was a previous scouting director so don’t lump him in with the others. I think they prefer the safety of bats with the first pick, but are otherwise just best player available. This year that’s probably a bat anyway.

Marshall: Klaw, this question relates to Buxton, because in what I think has almost become a lost year for the franchise that he should be starting in CF every day. Do you believe that a young hitters “confidence” is ever destroyed to the point that they lose the ability to hit. Or (as I believe) is that the player simply never was going to develop the hitting skill set necessary to succeed at the major league level?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Ryan: How does Mike Soroka’s ceiling compare to the other arms in Atlanta’s sysetem?
Klaw: Lower. Like his arm slot. #rimshot

David/Indiana: Are you a fan of Faulkner? If so, what is your favorite?
Klaw: Yes. Absalom, Absalom is one of my top 20 novels ever.

Alex: Would you vote David Ortiz into the HOF? Will he make it? Edgar Martinez seems to have no chance, but Ortiz is a much bigger part of baseball history.
Klaw: No, I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer even before we talk about the failed test.

Patrick?: Think Zunino will make an impact in the MLB? He is crushing AAA right now. Or is he just a AAAA player?
Klaw: I do think so.

Joe: The Dbacks announcers often use Nick Ahmed, Branon Drury, and Randall Delgado (?) as proof that the Upton trade wasn’t bad. I’m still not happy with the return we got and how the FO did everything they could to run down his value, but how would you say it has ended up over the 3+ seasons since that trade was made?
Klaw: It was a total disaster. They took fifty cents on the dollar for Upton and probably ended up losing a nickel along the way. Players like Ahmed aren’t that hard to find.

Brian: What do you think the Rangers see in Chi Chi Gonzalez? He has never had an out pitch, and yet he was the pitcher they seemed determined to hold on to last year when they were trading away Eickoff, Thompson, Asher, etc.
Klaw: His cutter was an out pitch. Not sure why it hasn’t been so in the upper levels.

tony: Are you going to be on any more game broadcasts this year?
Klaw: Currently scheduled for three more, next one is June 8th.

Jack: Would selecting AJ Puk number 1 at a discounted price be a bad selection?
Klaw: No, not at all. I think taking Lewis there would probably be one, given the contact issues, but you could make a good argument in his favor too. If I could be satisfied that Delvin’s immaturity was not a real impediment to him becoming a star, I’d take him. Best tools in the draft, doesn’t turn 18 till October, stays at shortstop.

Zach: HI Keith, have you caught any of Gray’s first couple starts for CO? Just wondering if there have been any signs if progress there recently.
Klaw: Looked terrible in what I saw – fastball is true and hitters have no trouble seeing it.

Josh K: Still high on Gausman upside?
Klaw: Yes, if healthy, and if the Orioles just leave him the hell alone. Looks like he’s now on the middle of the rubber, not perfect but better than where Buck and company shoved him last year.

James: What’s your take on Sale not saying in so many words that he’s pitching to contact, but rather, finding more “economical” ways to retire batters in order to pitch deeper into games? Seems like a risky tack for a guy who’s good for 11 K/9 all season long.
Klaw: Don’t know what to make of it, although I think the White Sox could certainly ask him not to do that because they might feel they’re better off with him averaging six innings and being more effective when he’s pitching.

Darkwing: Is there any artist (writer, filmmaker, musician, etc) whose work you like, but you don’t like them personally? (ex. I like some of Polanski’s films, but don’t like the guy for obvious reasons)
Klaw: Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris is wonderful but he’s a terrible human being. I even like some Bing Crosby movies but he even copped to being a horrible, abusive father and husband in his first marriage.

Joshy: What do you think about Ronald Acuna? Do you think he could develop some power and become a near 5-tool player?
Klaw: Wouldn’t go that far but I love the bat and the approach for someone so young.

Luke: We already play Ticket to Ride and Carcassone. What’s the next game I should introduce to my 7-year old?
Klaw: Splendor. My daughter loves it.

Louis: How would you grade out Benintendi? 70 hit/60 power/60 run/55 arm/55 fielding?
Klaw: I love Benintendi, but everyone is getting way too excited about a college prospect raking in high-A. He might be a superstar – it wouldn’t really surprise me at all – but I think we need to see him in AA. The SEC to high-A is kind of a lateral move for a 21-year-old.

Harry: How many mock drafts are you doing, and when is the first one?
Klaw: Four. First one May 18th. Usually then it’s two weeks till the second one, one about 4-5 days before the draft, then one the morning of the draft.

J-Doug: To your readers who think TA is better than OPS, this has been studied to death by sabermetricians and OPS, while not great, beats true average every time (predicting the number of runs scored in an inning about 30% better). If you really want an offense stat that doesn’t mess with the denominator, try wOBA.
Klaw: Yep, wOBA, while not quite intuitive, answers the question of hitter value (in a rate stat) far better.

Jim: Think Dakota Hudson will go to the Red Sox at number 12?
Klaw: I think he goes in the 10-17 range. Wouldn’t get any more specific yet.

TestaDuda: I’ve heard early reports that next year’s draft class is better than this one. Do you agree and if so is it 2011 better? 2005 better? Just looking for a comp or context.
Klaw: The very top of next year’s draft is better. I don’t know about the depth, but there are more guys who could emerge as strong 1-1 candidates next year than there are for this year.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Gleyber Torres, yes it’s early, but is it still early? He’s super young for the level, but the results aren’t good.
Klaw: He’s super young for the level. So is Devers. Torres is four months older than Blake Rutherford and three years younger than Dansby Swanson.

Jeff: Speaking of Woody Allen – did you read his Hollywood Reporter interview that was just recently published? Spoiler alert: He’s still weird.
Klaw: Beyond creepy, although it certainly seemed to fit my own suspicions that he’s some kind of narcissist and/or sociopath.

Harold V: I like how you didn’t include the Cubs on your list of teams that have tanked.
Klaw: When did they tank?

Jay: Matt Cain still seems to have velocity and movement with his pitches – but not command. Given his track record, wouldn’t you expect him to regain the command over time?
Klaw: Velocity is down and if there’s indeed more effort required just to get that velocity then that’s going to kill command. I’m out.

fill: how has aj minter looked and whats his potential
Klaw: I have no new reports on him (or a lot of guys yet – it’s early and I’m draft-focused) but I saw him pre-TJ and saw a middle reliever at best. Short guy, bad delivery, was 90-92 after the first inning.

Mitch: What round will Cooper Johnson be drafted in? Great defensive tool but the bat is a ?
Klaw: Second round. Maybe sandwich because there’s no catchers in the class. I think you nailed the summary on him.

mcf1417: Who are some of those 1-1 types for 2017? Inquiring Braves fans need to know.
Klaw: Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vandy. Alex Faedo at Florida. Alex Lange at LSU. Tanner Houck at Missouri. And that’s without even touching the HS crop, like the socal pitcher Hunter Greene who’s already 94-96.

Drew: Thank you for singing the praises of Empire Falls. I just finished it and loved it. Which of his should I read next?
Klaw: Straight Man is the funniest. Nobody’s Fool is probably the next-best novel.

rico: what’s the point of a mock draft 4 days before and then the morning of? what changes in 4 days regarding ability?
Klaw: A mock draft is not about ability. It’s a projection of who’s taking which player. This confusion comes from idiots posting “mock drafts” months ahead that are nothing more than lists of names with zero information on who teams would actually consider taking.

Youth_Movement: What are your thoughts these days about Dom Smith? You think he’ll be able to “prevent his shirt buttons from popping out”?
Klaw: He’s been raking and showing more power. Still heavy, still playing good defense at first.

Greg: Seems like a lot of the industry has become more optimistic on Kyle Lewis as the spring goes on. I know you were down on him, and I’m not suggesting you should change your mind because others have, but I’m curious if you’re at least somewhat more optimistic on him?
Klaw: No, I think he is the same player he’s always been. Maybe folks see the paucity of good college bats and figure after Ray and perhaps Senzel (more certain, lower ceiling) Lewis is next on the list so you’d better learn to like him. They’re not entirely wrong if that’s the case.

Rian: corey ray is what type of player in 5 years
Klaw: I’ve had a bunch of people compare him to Ray Lankford. I think that’s a reasonable optimistic scenario.

James: Is it foolish to think Berrios could be a No. 1 someday? Or are the tools just not there?
Klaw: The stuff is not there. Fastball is flat. Offspeed stuff is certainly good, but not good enough to make him top 15 in the majors.

Greg: You’re high on the Atlanta system, obviously. When do you see them back in competition for a playoff spot?
Klaw: Probably three years out from that. Depends on whether Liberty gives them some money to spend once they’re in the new stadium.

JR: Draft prospects, minor leaguers, major leaguers – how are you able to keep up with all these players?
Klaw: For the next few weeks I won’t do much work on anything but the draft. I can catch up on pro stuff after that, and by then my friends who are pro scouts will have worked through a lot of their assigned coverage anyway.

JD: SSS aside, anything (team, player, trend) that’s surprised you so far in the MLB season?
Klaw: The White Sox look like they might be sufficiently different that I would tell their fans yes, they’re legitimate contenders, probably better than everyone forecasted.

Paul/DC: Have you ever read any of Tim O’Brien books? Going After Cacciato and The Things They Carry are two of my favorite books
Klaw: Read the latter. It was good, not top 100 for me.

Brad: Do you ever wonder if this chat is one person just using different names?
Klaw: Actually this chat is twelve different AI scripts all posting as “Klaw.”

Oren: Is it feasible to hold hope for Dylan Bundy succeeding at this point? Being out of options is such an additional challenge.
Klaw: He’s not healthy. He has calcification in his shoulder, and now his stuff is down across the board. He’s gotten just four swings and misses on his fastball all season. I’m sorry to see it, but I can’t find reasons for optimism right now.

Matt: I’ve loved almost every book and board game recommendation from you, but Absalom Absalom just did not do it for me. It was such a slog, boring and kinda difficult to read. It seems very different than most of the other books on your list. Why the high praise?
Klaw: It is indeed difficult to read, but I find the prose scintillating and the story arc – the fall of the South from the end of the Civil War through the 1920s, told through the decline of one family – absolutely perfect.

James: What bothers me about you Tyreek Hill stance is what happens to his victim and child? They deserve financial means – a significant piece of his NFL salary. I’d rather he continue to seek therapy and pay for the care of an innocent child with a 500K salary than be barred from the league and have his victim and child receive nothing.
Klaw: Because therapy doesn’t do jack. Men who choke women are not fixable; choking itself is a huge predictor of future attempts to kill. Your argument could easily be used to argue against any abuser going to jail, because instead he could be working and paying child support. And free to kill someone, too.

Rob: Is there any hope for Jorge Soler? He shows patience and looks the part but watching him swing at curve balls is really, really ugly.
Klaw: Yes, but he’ll need to play every day somewhere.

Josh: Do you think Urias or DeLeon will/should be called up this year? And in what role(s)?
Klaw: I think both will, probably both in the rotation at least temporarily while the Dodgers wait for the veteran starters to return from the DL. I think DeLeon might be better suited to long relief to break him in.

Julia: Dusty Baker. Just…why. That’ s my only question. WHY. (you can insert any phrase involving unbelievable decisions that somehow haven’t hurt the team much yet)
Klaw: Because veterans and leadership and it’s not even like he says stuff that makes sense any more.

Kyle: Thoughts on the connection between the showcase circuit and arm injuries? About halfway through The Arm and curious of your thoughts
Klaw: Agree completely with Jeff’s premise there. He’s right about every target in there, from the scouts who flood these events (I go to a couple too, because the kids are there) to Perfect Game’s model aiming at younger and younger kids. We truly do need these kids to pitch less, and to stop trying to show off for us by throwing harder, which means putting the radar guns away until they’re 17 or 18.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you as always for your questions. I’ll be back next Thursday, by which point Eric and I will have posted top 100 ranking for the draft too.

Klawchat 4/28/16.

Klaw: How can I put this in a way so as not to offend or unnerve? Klawchat.

TNizzle: Seems like it could be a big year for northeast HS baseball. Groome, Anderson, Jones, Kiriloff, Bakst…I know here in NJ there are more potential top ten round guys that I can ever remember. Outlier or trend?
Klaw: Outlier. I’d add Kranick, Laskey, and Mondile to the watch list, at least. Bakst is a Stanford commit and probably unsignable because he’d rather go get his swing ruined.

Bobby: How good can Mitch Keller become? Does he have Glasnow type breakout potential? He’s off to a great start.
Klaw: Totally different pitcher. I wouldn’t comp them just because they’re in the same org. But I liked Keller a ton as an amateur and now that he’s healthy I think we’re seeing his potential again.

Nick: Have you heard anything on Lazarito since the last workout? Only a little over 2 months to July 2nd and it seems like we’re in a lull.
Klaw: I’m assuming he has a deal in place to sign on July 2nd so the news and workouts have stopped.

Nick: Based on what we know now (a lot can change) but it seems like Corey Ray will be the Phillies top pick, no? I can’t imagine they’d want to take a risk on Groome or Perez. After Ray, the college talent drops a little. I can’t see them making Lewis or Senzel 1-1. Maybe Puk but Ray seems the safer bet at this point. I guess we’ll have to see how the college season plays out.
Klaw: I think it would be Puk if it were today, but they’re still undecided. I agree that Ray would be a better call than Lewis, but if you want certainty, you take Senzel, who has less ceiling but is probably the most likely big league regular in the draft.

Kevin: The Phillies are over .500. Wtf?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

Owen (London): Hi Keith- Is it just me or is there some connection in the way that former catchers tend to make the most obdurate managers ? Girardi’s comments on the shift were just so peculiar. Any idea why this might be ?
Klaw: Not just peculiar, but petulant. If you don’t like the shift, overcome it.

scottdsimon: How, if at all, is the (fluid, retroactively determined) Super 2 “deadline” affected by teams promoting pitchers for one start (e.g., Blair, Snell) and then sending them back to the minors?
Klaw: It’s not. It’s all around service time within that class. Those guys get a day of service, and that day will just count like any other days of service when their class comes up for super 2 eligibility. It does mean they’re on the 40-man, however, which I don’t think was the case for Blair.

Luis: Reading about Pint touching 100, I couldn’t help but think of Tyler Kolek. How do those two compare at the time Kolek was drafted?
Klaw: Pint’s a better athlete and flashes better offspeed stuff. Neither throws enough strikes.

Julian: Okay, so this whole Jean Segura thing is a weird lightning rod. He’s had a terrific start. And getting away from Milwaukee for emotional reasons may have helped. Except that four things are pretty obvious if you take five seconds. 1) It’s 16 games. 2) He’s done this before – the start of 2013. And then he hit a wall after May and plateaued for several years. 3) His underlying numbers are complete outliers. His BABIP is .363, and 15% of his flyballs are homers – his previous bests are .326 and 7%. In other words – either unsustainable, a fluke, or completely different player. 4) He’s still basically the same player – he has 2 walks so far this year, which is fine when you hit .347, but stops being fine the second you drop below, say .320. Which is a long-winded way of asking: Why do you think people take valid, supported criticism and make it purely personal? Yes, anonymity helps. But what benefit do they gain from turning a hot streak of 95 good at-bats into proof of wrongness?
Klaw: I truly have no idea why people act so stupid over, in particular, a tiny little sample, or, in general, a scouting report or prediction that turns out to be wrong. It’s why I block and mute so many people on Twitter and Facebook, though. If you don’t really understand how small sample sizes work, or when a player’s performance is likely to regress, that’s fine. When that drives uncivil (or worse) behavior, that’s not fine.

Mac: The Arrieta/PED discussion is pretty ridiculous right considering 1. He always had great stuff with Baltimore and 2. Baltimore has a history of being terrible at developing pitching
Klaw: The “discussion” is ridiculous because it’s absolutely, totally baseless. I thought First Take’s segment was irresponsible – you cannot speculate about players being on PEDs when there is zero evidence to support the claim. Arrieta has never failed a test, and never been linked in any way to PED usage. Also, if someone knows about a magic pill that cleans up your mechanics and improves your command, I’d love to talk about a distribution agreement.

Magdee: Why is aledmys Diaz doing this? Fluke? Small sample size?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

Nic, AZ: Domingo Acevedo has had a nice start to the season as an SP, do you think he has a chance to start long term or is he destined for relief?
Klaw: With that delivery I don’t see any way he can start.

Ben: Chances of Manaea, Berrios and Fulmer sticking in the bigs?
Klaw: All about team plans, because I think all three are ready to contribute in a major-league rotation.

David: Seems not that long ago we thought of Orlando Arcia as a slick fielding SS with a modest hit tool. Was his offensive progression aniticipated and is it sustainable in the major leagues?
Klaw: Anticipated, no, sustainable, yes.

Something: Can I start to question how conforto made it to 10? I know he can’t maintain what he’s doing now, but he looks like a perennial all-star.
Klaw: Teams killed him for being LF only and/or for having too little power. He was 8th on my board, and really should have been higher.

John Liotta: Over the last twenty years which of the the following three awards would you say better represents the kind of books you like to read most- National Book Award, Pulitzer Prize or Man/Booker?
Klaw: Probably Man Booker, but I haven’t read many NBA winners. The Hugo has a few books I’ve absolutely adored, and then a bunch that I thought were awful.

At least we have Mateo: I saw Dante Bichette Jr. last week. Has he ever been able to tell what pitch is coming? Or is it just always a wild hack and pray?
Klaw: Always been like that. Huge backside collapse and uphill path. No shot at a breaking ball away. I think his lack of success is hurting Bo’s draft stock, but Bo is a better player – he doesn’t collapse like that and he’s a better athlete who might be okay at 2b.

David: Klaw: The Braves are very likely to have the first draft pick in 2017. Is there a consensus No. 1 pick in that class? Please give a lifelong Braves fan a little hope. This is as painful as the 1970s when the team was consistently awful.
Klaw: Klaw about 2 hours ago

Ryan (Carnegie, PA): Is this the year Gregory Polanco breaks out? His approach has been great, and his swing seems more compact. He just seems so much more comfortable at the plate.
Klaw: This year or next. It’s primarily about waiting for his power, and I don’t know when that’s going to come. But I have thought for a while that he had superstar upside and that has not changed.

Ed: Lucas Sims has been really effective since being moved to Double A last year. I know you were high on him early in his career before things fell apart, but is he back to being a guy that can really make an impact as a starter?
Klaw: Every scout I talked to about him over the winter said future reliever, based on the stuff, especially the flat fastball. It’s also not ideal that he’s walked 14 in 19 innings this year.

Sean: Scouting the stat line, but Ahmed Rosario is hitting the cover off the ball. Isn’t it best to bring him up to Double A, while he’s seeing the ball well? I would think it makes for a little bit of a smoother transition to a higher level.
Klaw: He needs to go to AA, not because of his performance, but because he spent all of last year in high-A, and I don’t see what he’s learning by repeating the level.

Rob K: Can you expand on your twitter comment RE: Plawecki > d’Arnaud?
Klaw: Plawecki’s a better receiver and d’Arnaud has shown no ability to stay healthy as a regular catcher. I was surprised that there was any question about this. d’Arnaud was drafted in 2007 and has reached 500 PA in exactly one season, 450 in only two.

JG: Thoughts on the Berrios outing?
Klaw: Seemed like he tired quickly, and his command wasn’t sharp. Not really worried – it’s one start.

Christopher: Hey Keith, I really appreciated all your insight on Twitter the other day regarding pitch counts. You also mentioned that catchers can have arm trouble as well. I caught exclusively between ages 8-16 before persistent elbow problems derailed my career. Do you think that parents and/or leagues should monitor how many innings catchers catch? Perhaps relatedly, it seems that a large percentage of American High School catchers drafted in the first round don’t end up as successful big league catchers. Is there a systemic problem with how we treat/develop/abuse youth catchers in this country?
Klaw: Yes, they should monitor that. Teams could just have two catchers and alternate them, too. I think the problem with US catchers is that we draft them primarily on what they can do now (usually because they can really throw or they have power), when catchers take a long time to develop at the position, and we also have no way to evaluate stuff like receiving or game-calling because amateur coaches won’t give up an ounce of control.

Ty: Mickey Moniak is breaking out the power now. How high can he go?
Klaw: Not a power guy, but I think he goes top 5. If Philly takes a HS player at 1, he’d be my guess.

John: It looks like Manaea and Fulmer are coming up this week. Which one are you more optimistic about?
Klaw: Fulmer. Better stuff, more durable, although both have had injuries.

Jacques Strappe: Can you give any info on Travis Lakins? Didn’t hear much about him before this year but now I see a lot of people talking about him
Klaw: Oh, you mean my sleeper prospect for the Red Sox coming into this season?

JD: Remember how the preseason talk was all “the Orioles could set the MLB record for strikeouts”? Right now, they have the ninth best strikeout rate in the majors. Hell, they’re striking out less than the AL average. What gives?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

James: Ready for the NFL draft? I am assuming your interest level is somewhere between scouting a little league game and watching grass grow. Thanks for all the work you do on prospects.
Klaw: Pretty much. I forgot it was tonight until I saw it on Twitter this morning.

Mike: High Desert has a + 53 run dif. and is allowing 3.6 runs per game through 20 games. After this, mostly, same pitching core allowed 3.7 runs per in the SAL last year. Do you like the Rangers strategy of not avoiding that environment with guys like Ortiz, Mendez, and Jurado?
Klaw: The alternatives suck. Repeating low-A won’t help most of them (Ortiz perhaps because he pitched so little last year). Jumping them to AA could be a disaster. So you roll them out to High Desert and hope they give you two good months that justify a quick promotion.

Julian: Non-Segura question: Manuel Margot and Nick Williams up in June? After “Super Dos” “deadline” “passes”.
Klaw: Probably right.

Ryan: Are Jefferies and Quantrill the two college arms that the make sense for Boston at #12?
Klaw: Jefferies has a strain in his shoulder of unknown severity and Quantrill has not pitched yet this year coming off TJ, so I’m going with no on this one.

Andy: You’ve stated that you don’t re-read books a lot. Yet from BBTN yesterday, you seem to have a decent sized library. Why buy books you likely won’t ever read again?
Klaw: I’ve kept fewer than 10% of the books I’ve read. I buy a lot of books used, and I get a lot of new books as gifts. And I can always donate or re-sell books in good condition. I bought James Alan McPherson’s Elbow Room new with the express intent of donating it to my local library, as the Delaware library system only has one or two copies. (It’s a Pulitzer winner, a wonderful collection of short stories by an African-American author, definitely something that should be read more in schools.)

James: School out early or daughter sick?
Klaw: Daughter didn’t feel good. Just got over strep last week so I wasn’t going to question it. We’ve never been keen on just telling her to tough it out – if she’s uncomfortable enough to call us, we go get her.

Josh: Talk to us about Cody Bellinger and Mark Chapman. Are they eventual top 100 MLB players?
Klaw: Bellinger yes. Chapman no as he’s still in jail for killing John Lennon.

mike: keith – your thoughts on josh ockimey and kyri washington, two guys off to good starts with low a greenville?
Klaw: Hoping to see them this weekend. Saw Ockimey once in Ft. Myers, body looked a lot better. Washington is too old for the level but the bat probably wasn’t ready for high-A.

Andres A.: Hey Mr. Liberal Firebrand, I was wondering, on a scale of 20-80, what grade would you give “Art Angles” by Grimes? Also, any thoughts on The Struts? Not sure if you’ve heard of the. Thank you for your time, sir.
Klaw: I need to get “liberal firebrand” as my next tattoo. I thought Art Angels was a 70, and the Struts are a bit of a guilty pleasure even though they’re not doing anything novel.

Mike: How far could Alec Hansen fall in the draft ?
Klaw: He’s either a second pick for someone, the way Sean Manaea was for KC a few years ago, or he goes back to school next year and tries to get healthy. Something isn’t right.

Jon: Do you think B.Garrett and I. Anderson will fall to late first/sandwich round due to demands?
Klaw: No. That rarely happens in the new system. Daz was the one major exception last year, but he was not seen by anyone else as a $4 million guy.

Josh: What is the upside to Erick Fedde?
Klaw: Upside would be third starter. But without a decent third pitch he’ll be a reliever.

Brian: Keith, if I recall correctly you did not think Travis Shaw could stick at 3B. But he seems to be handling it quite well. Have you changed your opinion and what has he approved in? Thanks
Klaw: I still don’t think he can play it. I see UZR doesn’t look favorably on his defense so far either, although this sample is tiny.

Alan: I’ve been following Michael Wacha over the years and noticed that his K-rate has steadily declined. Last start he struck out…nobody! What is this due to? Seemed like he had potential to post better K-rates.
Klaw: Feels like he hasn’t had quite the same stuff since the shoulder injury, no?

sam: How do you have time to do all you do & also pitch for the Giants? I see you in the boxscores every few days.
Klaw: That’s my son, all 6’4″ of his conceived-when-I-was-16-years-old self.

Sam: How has Nolan Jones fared so far this season? Is he more solid than spectacular and what position should he play as a pro?
Klaw: More than solid. I was going to see him this afternoon but the game has already been cancelled due to rain.

Bob: Any surprised, positive or negative, for either players or teams that look sustainable? Or is everything still SSS?
Klaw: I just don’t. It’s too early to try to guess what’s real and what’s not unless we have some sound underlying logic, like a mechanical change or a new pitch. The one I might have suggested was Charlie Morton, who really did look different, stats aside, but that’s over.

Mike: Keith with Delino struggling at the plate do the Rangers just shift Desmond to center and keep Mazara up at left when Choo comes back?
Klaw: I would do that and send DeShields to AAA, where he never played anyway due to his rule 5 status (outside of a rehab stint). That would be based more on his limited skill set than just the slow start, though.

Mike: Earlier this month your “stick to baseball” links included a link to a compelling article about how nutrition researchers overplayed the anti-fat case and ignored the role of sugar for decades…while a second link highlighted the ignorance of the anti-vaccine crowd. Both interesting articles, but together they raise an issue: sometimes questioning the scientific mainstream leads to dangerous fringe stances like anti-vaccination…but there are times when mainstream science gets it wrong. How can those of us without science backgrounds find the line between productive skepticism and counter-productive anti-science stances?
Klaw: I’d point to the overwhelming consensus and huge number of studies and meta-studies on topics like vaccine safety, and the total lack of any published, peer-reviewed research anywhere that says otherwise.

BD: Drew Ward is crushing the ball, and it is easy to forget he is still just 21. Prospect now?
Klaw: No. He’s repeating high-A, remains awful at 3b, and also it’s April 28th.

Andrew: Do you think twitter has become more toxic of late? Or are we just more aware of it?
Klaw: Both. Recently I reported a user for saying that a female writer and I who were tweeting at each other deserved to be raped and killed. Twitter’s response was to make the user delete the post. Not to delete his fucking account and IP block him. Just to suspend him till he took the post down. Hey, Twitter, it’s not going to hurt your stock price to kick the shitheads off.

Jordan: Is Lucas Sims a legitimate top of the rotation pitching prospect?
Klaw: No, see above. Also it’s April 28th.

addoeh: Why do people get defensive about their team? Tribalism. They feel they have to defend their team no matter the circumstance. They have their shield and sword and are just waiting to attack all who speak ill of their team. With this thinking, else is wrong.
Klaw: This has become very evidence with Arizona fans this year, which I guess explains why Jan Brewer got two terms out there.

MIke: Have you been able to watch Wil Myers play this season? I know you predicted him as one of your breakout candidates, so how do you think he has faired thus far at a new position and at the plate?
Klaw: It’d be nice if he’d walk once in a while but this is kind of what I thought he’d be if he got healthy and was left alone to just go hit. It’s not picture-perfect but he has great hand-eye coordination and the strength for some power.

Nick: What happened near the end of The Magicians that you felt was a gut punch? Just finished reading (due to your positive review). Thanks.
Klaw: Alice’s last scene in that book.

Nelson: Perhaps I missed your explanation, but I just dont see how you can continue to say that Schilling is a fine human being, despite the bigotted views he consistantly posts?
Klaw: I never said Schilling was “a fine human being.” Rather than getting snotty with me, go read what I actually said.

Logan: Long term, would you bet on Michael Fulmer as a starter or as a reliever?
Klaw: Starter. No question here.

Greg: Hey, Keith. Maikel Franco just signed a $4.35 mil deal with Fantex in exchange for 10% of his total earnings, off and on the field. What’s your opinion of these deals, and do you see more young players signing them? On one hand, it’s a good way for young players to cash in before free agency. On the other, it seems like a large-scale payday loan. And how much does the fact that the public will be able to buy shares in players complicate matters? Could this lead to a lot of shady dealings? All that said, personally, I’m all for it.
Klaw: I believe players should have the right to do this if they believe it’s in their financial best interests. MLB and the union should probably come up with a cap on how much of a player’s earnings he can sell in this fashion, though.

Anonymous: Any 80 tools in this year’s draft?
Klaw: Riley Pint hit 100 mph, as has Zack Burdi. That’s an 80 fastball by definition.

Ryan Thompson: Who will be the Red Sox LF on August 1? Benintendi, Holt or someone else?
Klaw: I’ll take the bet on Benintendi.

J: Serious question: How can you suffer from anxiety and be such a confident person. Totally acceptable if you don’t want to answer and I mean no offense
Klaw: That’s just not what anxiety is. Anxiety is biological and irrational. It is pervasive and insidious, but it is manageable. I don’t feel extraordinary anxiety when writing or watching players. I feel anxiety at times that make no sense.

Dave: Is Josh Hader a starter or reliever? It seems like he only can go 4 innings in every start he makes.
Klaw: Don’t know an MLB starter who has that arm action. Chris Sale is the closest delivery comp, but even that is kind of a default.

Michael: Just wondering – do you know why teams have their pitchers in the minor leagues sit in the stands and chart pitches? When I sit in that section, they always seem very uninterested and I wonder what skill they are gaining knowing how fast their teammate throws.
Klaw: If they’re diligent, they’re watching the hitters too, and looking at how their teammates are adjusting.

Trey: Nick Senzel a reach for the Brewers at 5? 3B is one of the two weakest spots in the Org (1B). Quick mover to the big leagues?
Klaw: Not a big reach, but organizational need is not a good reason to draft a player. I’d go for more upside there, since they’re in rebuilding mode.

Chris: How soon do you see the Yankees calling up Judge with their outfielders struggling so much?
Klaw: He’s still struck out in 1/3 of his at bats – and he’s not walking – which is not a good argument for bringing him up. He has to show he can control both sides of the plate before you recall him because MLB pitchers will exploit that endlessly.

Chris: Any news on Luis Ortiz’s weight issues so far in 2016? His stats look good, but they also don’t show his size
Klaw: He was heavy in March too. He’s just going to be big forever – it’s about not getting TOO big.

Ed: Have you learned anything about Eddie Julio Martinez now that he’s got a couple of at-bats under his belt, or still too early to tell?
Klaw: Too early to tell. He hadn’t played in a real game in two years and it has showed in the early results.

Steve: Have you finished Passan’s The Arm? Thoughts?
Klaw: I finished it the day I saw Pint. I’ve mentioned that I have several conflicts of interest around that book, so bear that in mind, but I enjoyed the book tremendously and thought parents of young pitchers especially should read it. Buy it here from amazon.

Michael: Do you still think Obama should simply appoint Garland to SCOTUS if the Senate ignores its job? You’ve said that Republicans will call Obama a dictator in that case, but that would, in fact, be very undemocratic of him to do. I think the Senate should confirm him–he’s incredibly qualified–but a majority of constitutional lawyers do not think Obama has the power to do it alone.
Klaw: I never said I thought he should do so, but that I thought he could as a recess appointment. Doing so would indeed feed right into the GOP’s narrative. And I agree, the Senate should just do its job.

Ridley Kemp: So….the Hugo Awards finalists were announced yesterday. It reminds me a lot of the 1957 All Star voting mess, a bad nomination process abused by trolls. Any thoughts on the nominees? (P.S. Anyone who gets a membership to Worldcon can vote)
Klaw: Never read any of them. I thought Ancillary Justice (which won in 2014) was a bit sterile, and I’m not wild about Stephenson’s work (overlong, plots don’t resolve well).

Tom: Are periscope chats dead? Really enjoyed that forum. Hopefully you will do them more in the future.
Klaw: Very difficult to do them with travel and with contractors tearing up my bathroom (it’s loud in here).

Every idiot fan: Hey, have you seen ? What’s up with that? And admit that you were wrong! and that you actually hate my team!
Klaw: This is basically every day on twitter even if I don’t tweet for 24 hours.

JG: Are we starting to see the real Kohl Stewart emerge?
Klaw: I’d like to see him do this at the next level since he was in the FSL all of last year too – but missing any bats is nice progress, as it was the one aspect of his game that was lacking (surprisingly so, since he has the stuff to strike guys out).

Kyle: How high are you on Connor Jones? His K/BB is only 2 to 1 and he only strikes out batters just under 20% of the time but I see him really high on mock draft boards
Klaw: I haven’t done a mock draft yet. I don’t think he’s really first-round worthy but may go there due to the paucity of college arms. Virginia has taken him backwards, altering his delivery in a way that has cut his velocity. He can sink it but has no out pitch.

Michael: With all the high fives given out after a sacrifice fly, you would think it’s a better result than it is. Do you think players actually try to just hit a lazy fly ball rather than get a hit? The way they talk on TV, it seems like that may actually be the mentality of a hitter.
Klaw: The worst is in college/high school where a sac fly or a bunt brings every slapdick out of the dugout to high-five. He made an out. Sit your asses down.

Jeff: Have you heard about why R.Lawson’s stopped pitching? Is it an injury or a self preservation?
Klaw: Story was an oblique injury but he’s still been playing the field the last three weeks, so that doesn’t seem to check out. He also changed his delivery somewhere in the offseason, seriously shortening his stride and raising his release point, which is correlated with reduced velocity and greater risk of injury (especially to the shoulder), per ASMI.

Mc: You have tattoos already?
Klaw: I have “OBP IS LIFE” across my shoulder blades.

Mc: Errol Robinson is a ___ round pick? His ceiling is ___ ?
Klaw: Third. Maybe less. He’s been terrible this year. Ceiling of everyday player, low probability of getting there.

Andy: I love how a belief in science and human decency means you’re a liberal firebrand.
Klaw: Because that’s really it, isn’t it? I think everyone is equal. And I think the environment is important because damaging it will kill us. Never mind my views on free trade or taxation or whatnot.

Elton: I liked Forever War more than you did but definitely agree that the characterization was weak. That’s my beef with an awful lot of sci-fi; compelling ideas and plot dragged down by cardboard characters. Is there a book or series you’d consider to have the whole package?
Klaw: Hyperion. Jonathan Strange. Foundation had its moments of characterization. LotR.

Anonymous: What do you see as the ceiling to Matt Chapman?
Klaw: Above-average regular at third. Plus defense, power, low avg/OBP.

Sarah: Are you a Downton Abbey fan?
Klaw: Yes, watched (and wrote up) all six seasons.

Shelby: Zack Collins in any way comparable to college-age Schwarber at this point?
Klaw: Not the same caliber of hitter, but a good hitter, a top 3 pure college bat. Chance to go as high as 6. Definitely goes top 20.

Rob: Keith–surprised to see McCutcheon hitting second for the Pirates? Clint “Bowl of Jell-O” Hurdle has obviously been listening to the Bucs’ analytics department.
Klaw: He’s shown a real willingness to listen to new ideas, as opposed to, say, Dusty Baker. And then he bats Polanco sixth.

Steve: What’s should the Rangers do with Profar at this point?
Klaw: I don’t have a good answer. He should be in the majors, but where? Odor has not played well, but demoting him would be overreacting, and Profar hasn’t played 2b anyway. Andrus is hitting for the moment. Mazara isn’t going anywhere. So I guess just wait and let Profar keep doing his thing.

Travis: Wait, Moniak is a top-5 guy now? You said that’d be a stretch a few weeks ago. Has something changed with him, or have other top picks fallen?
Klaw: Didn’t I just rank him 6th in the draft class? I don’t think that’s a stretch.

JR: Speaking of your “stick to baseball” posts, the BYU story you linked too earlier this month keeps getting worse as more victims are coming forward. In some instances, preadators knew they could use threats of the “honor code” to coerce their victims into more actions or buy their silence. Horrible.
Klaw: I have very little respect or use for that school. Colleges ignoring rape or sexual assault allegations are nothing new (Tennessee, Baylor). But BYU has taken it to an entirely new level of victim-blaming. The feds should cut off all funding to the school as a result of these revelations.

Bob: Back to Aledmys Diaz. If I remember right, you weren’t high on him when he was being showcased a couple of years ago. But I think you hedged a bit because it’s hard to project Cuban players. He had decent minor league stats. Obviously he’s not going to keep up this streak but is there anything in his development that should give Cardinal fans hope that he could be a regular?
Klaw: He had decent minor league stats, but not great ones. He hit .278/.339/.445 last year in AAA at age 24, so what are the odds that he’ll hit substantially better than that this year without some substantial mechanical or physical change? I don’t know of such a change, so I’m skeptical that he’ll be much better than that – but that line and average defense at short is an everyday player.

Eric Johnson: Do Colabello’s innocent pleas fall on more sympathetic ears because he can better articulate his arguments as opposed to Latin guys with English as a second language? This bugs me.
Klaw: Well I think we’re all ignoring his comments and assuming he’s guilty because, you know, he failed the test.

Michael: Re: Brewer, you’ll never vote for a Republican if you favor science and equal rights over the economy. But you generally must hate economic policies put forward by Democrats if you prefer laissez-faire economics and a flatter tax.
Klaw: At an extremely general level, yes, this is true. And it makes me nuts when Democrats talk about “tax cuts for the wealthy” (we tax income, not wealth) or claim the gender pay gap is 25-30% (it’s probably around 5%).

Don: Not really a question, but wow, does Francisco Lindor hit the ball hard for a little guy. And consistently too. Any other young players that look like they’re having as much fun on the field as he does?
Klaw: You can make hard contact if you have strong hands and/or wrists. Andrew McCutchen is not huge, but he has huge power for that reason. That Harper kid seems to have fun out there.

Tmelts: Seth Beer a future 1st round pick?
Klaw: Probably. Might be better off for his decision because he’ll be a true 21-year-old junior rather than a nearly 20-year-old HS senior.

Chuck: How shocked would yoou be if the Phillies draft Jason Groome … extremely or mildly ?
Klaw: Only mildly because the class is so unsettled, but all indications I’ve heard so far have them disinclined to take a prep arm at 1.

Ryan, PA: Foody question. Do you have a favorite way to cook or eat lamb? I took some notes from Alton Brown and started using it in burgers and now I’m never going back to straight beef burgers if I can help it.
Klaw: It’s the one animal protein I just don’t care for. I never cook it at home.

Greg: When you say first round pick, does that = top 30, or top 23?
Klaw: Top 23 this year.

Mike: Hey science guy, how do you rationalize the transgender people? Last time, I checked you’re either born with a Y chromosome or you’re not and they’re no scientific argument against that
Klaw: Hey ignorance guy, it’s called gender dysphoria and is found in the DSM-5.

Sarah: Trevor Story: what are your quick thoughts- obviously not sustainable but will he stick as Colorado’s long-term SS and be an above average bat at that position or will the league figure out the holes in his swing?
Klaw: Eventually I think he’s their everyday SS, but selling out for power isn’t the long-term formula here.

Ryan: Not trying to fire anyone up but I have a question about the transgender bathroom situation. Most stuff I read says that people aren’t concerned with sharing a bathroom with transgender people as much as they are concerned with some straight guy using this as an excuse to creep in a woman’s rest room. Do you see this as a possible issue or just fear mongering?
Klaw: I’d be more concerned about “some straight guy” who’s actually a pedophile going after my (hypothetical) son in the men’s room, since the situation you described above has never actually happened.

Micha: Can you give me a quick scouting report on AJ Puk’s last two outings?
Klaw: No since I wasn’t there.

Ed: Lamb ragout with polenta is delicious
Klaw: That’s because polenta is delicious.

MikeD: What percentage of time do you spend on the road away from home? Have you ever brought your daughter with you during the summer, or would she find it all dreadfully boring?
Klaw: She came on both trips to spring training this year, and sometimes she’ll tag along on a summer trip, but she’s completely uninterested in baseball so bringing her to games is not quite ideal. I usually bribe her with pizza.

Fonz: Re level of competition in evaluating players, how much weight is placed on something like JJ Schwarz not being able to hit SEC pitching this year and last? Similarly, do teams break out stats vs. Friday starters compared to mid-week starters, etc.?
Klaw: A lot because SEC pitching is the best competition these kids are going to face before the draft. And yes on Friday starters vs midweek, and LHP for left-handed hitters. Those last two variables were big negatives on Pedro Alvarez in his draft year and why I ranked him below Posey, Smoak, and Hosmer in that class.

David-ji: Robert Stephenson has looked solid in his first two MLB starts…did that upgrade his future in your eyes?
Klaw: No, I think I had him ranked about right given what he’s shown so far.

CJ: Amir Garrett Upside?
Klaw: True upside, #2 starter. Long way to go to get there because he has so little pitching experience. Lot of scouts tell me they think he’s a reliever, and I can see why, but I wouldn’t give up on him starting yet.

Joe: Do any of the players you’re scouting moms get frisky with you?
Klaw: I ain’t going that good. They’d probably think I was closer to their sons’ ages anyway.

Tim: A quick comment and defense of Cards fans – there were no racial or obscene yells against Heyward when visiting Busch. It was an allegation with no basis.
Klaw: I can’t believe something that was spread quickly on social media turned out to be wrong. How will I ever believe something I read on my Internet again.

James: What is your projection on Aaron Blair? Is he a safe mid rotation starter or maybe something more
Klaw: Bit better than that.

John: If the Phillies are staying away from a high school arm at 1.1, does that mean they want a faster rebuild and prefer a college player or are they just avoiding the risk?
Klaw: I think it’s about the risk of HS arms in the first round. Their track record as a whole is not that good – you have to believe you’ve identified one of the kids who’s an exception.

MyName: Very early, but you’re thoughts on J.J. Schwarz? Seems like a guy Braves should be keeping their eye on for 2017?
Klaw: If they’re going to draft top 3 again, then no, I don’t think so. First-rounder, but behind a bunch of other kids right now. Granted, a ton can change in the next 13 months.

Ryan: Who is the most MLB ready in this year’s draft class?
Klaw: Sounds like Senzel.

Henry: For teams with a long time star at a certain position, how soon is too soon to start planning for backups/succession? I’m thinking specifically of the Cardinals, who have a ham sandwich backing up Yadier Molina.
Klaw: I think teams should always plan for that because you never know when a player will be done. Dale Murphy was a superstar at 31, a below-average regular at 32, and basically done after that. The worst thing that happens is that you’ve planned for a replacement and don’t need him, so you have a tradeable asset or a player you can move to another spot.

Cubs Fans 3 years ago: Hey, you remember a couple years ago when Junior Lake had a hot couple of weeks, yet you kept insisting he wasn’t a good player? When are we going to get a retraction article on that? Also on a related note, Dan Vogelbach is hitting well in AAA.
Klaw: Indeed he is – I think Vogey gets a callup at some point this year. He’d be an interesting option off the bench if they can carry him.

Mike: Are people just willfully ignorant with the “man will put on a dress” comments? Transgender does not equal cross dresser.
Klaw: It’s also a relatively small part of these laws in NC, MS, and KS, which generally allow private businesses to discriminate against gay people. That’s the real problem.

Buckner: Hypothetical question. If Seager stays @ SS for the next ten years, would you take him or Bogerts?
Klaw: Probably Seager. Don’t think he will though.

Jeff: From a rebuilding standpoint, do teams tend to prefer a low risk/high floor player or a high risk high ceiling player?
Klaw: Usually the latter because you have to try to find stars wherever you can. The Paul Goldschmidts of the world – low draft picks without exceptional tools – are so rare that you can’t say you’re going to find and build around them.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week – thanks for hanging with me around my schedule. I’ll be back next week on Thursday or Friday for another chat.