My 5000-word GenCon wrapup piece, including a ranking of the top 20 new games I saw/played/demoed there, is now up at Paste.

Keith Law: Three words we shared said too early on: This is Klawchat.

Lee D: Keith, with half of the Dodgers’ best pitchers on the DL but coming off soon, and Rich Hill’s amazing game last night, how would you line up their starters for the playoffs?
Keith Law: Kershaw and Darvish (who I think wasn’t really hurt, just stashed on the 10-day DL like the Dodgers have been doing all year) would be the 1-2. If Hill’s healthy and Wood isn’t, Hill is the 3. I’m not that optimistic about Wood; he’s been out twice with this shoulder injury, and he’s got a long history of DL time.

Seath: What do you make of Royce Lewis promotion to Low A? He seems to be doing well (SSS). I know lot of people in MN were upset they didn’t go for Greene.
Keith Law: Seems aggressive. If he’s really that advanced a bat, then it’s not a bad idea to get him a cup of coffee there since he’ll play there next year … but if he’s not that advanced, then there’s the risk he’ll be overmatched. I did not think this spring that he was that advanced a bat.

Bobby: KLAW – Again, thanks for these chats. Love them. I know in the past you have suggested Severino is an elite reliever for you rather than a starter. Obv seems like he is a legit starter now (which is fine – no one can be right 100% of time) but do you think he is? Has he fixed something or is it still likely he ends up in ‘pen in your opinion?
Keith Law: Two things look different – he got a LOT bigger, and his slider improved a lot. The slider was a below-average pitch for him in the minors and not that effective for him in the majors till this year, but it’s been his best pitch by Fangraphs’ pitch values this year and he’s throwing it more than 1/3 of the time. The three-pitch mix is elite for a starter, but I can’t think of a starter who had his sort of delivery and held up over time.

addoeh: How big of a disadvantage is there for a left handed third baseman, short stop, and catcher?
Keith Law: I think it’s huge for a shortstop or 3b, irrelevant for a catcher – but as I said on the podcast today, a LH catcher with arm strength ends up on the mound.

Kirkie: Daniel Johnson, at Potomac. 20+HR, 20+steals across lo and hi A ball. and apparently all 3 outfield positions with a cannon of an arm too.
Keith Law: Saw him. Not a centerfielder, not even close. Way too old for low-A, and questionable pitch recognition when I saw him there.

Kris: Any chance of Jordan Zimmermann rebounding from this two year downward trend in performance?
Keith Law: No, I think he’s likely done as an effective starter.

Michael: Hi Klaw- Looking to the future for the Phils infield, would you trade Franco and have the 2B-SS-3B positions manned by some combo of Hernandez, Kingery, Crawford and Galvis?
Keith Law: Would Franco have much trade value? I think Galvis is the guy you trade, with Kingery/Crawford the DP combo going forward.

Mike: do you believe splitters rob starting pitchers of velocity? is that why it fell out of favor?
Keith Law: I believe that people in the industry believe that. I do not know of any evidence to support it.

Guest: Tyler Glasnow has been blowing away Triple A for the past month. Is he destined to be one of those guys that is just too good for Triple A but whose command isn’t good enough to get MLB hitters out?
Keith Law: I think he can eventually be more than that, but what you described is what he is now.

Jerry: Has it sunk in yet that you (and ESPN) played a role in helping Trump get elected? Feel free to apologize.
Keith Law: That’s quite a take.

Joe: What keeps Forrest Whitely from having a ceiling above #2/3?
Keith Law: He’s a future ace. Disregard what I said in chat last week.

Dog: Nick Williams’ first exposure to MLB seems to be going pretty well offensively, but I noticed on BaseballReference that his WAR is only 0.1 because he is at -0.9 defensively, which almost outweighs his offensive contributions. Is his defense truly that bad, or is that small sample size noise?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him enough in the majors to comment on that; I saw him a lot in the minors and thought he had poor instincts, but had athleticism to make up for some of it, and I know of multiple scouts who thought he’d be above average in a corner or playable in CF. (I don’t think I ever wrote that he would be those things. He’s one of the least instinctive players I’ve scouted.)

Dog: Jesse Winker has always seemed like Joey Votto without the power, which still would be a valuable player. Do you think his profile will work long-term in the majors or will he need to add power to be effective (notwithstanding that he’s slugging over .500 in his small sample size so far).
Keith Law: I think he’s strong enough to slug in the .400s regularly with a ton of doubles. He’s not weak; he just doesn’t have much HR power or the swing for it.

Phils Guy: Have you ever tried substituting a sweet (Vidalia) onion for a savory (white or yellow) onion in a recipe? My wife made a french onion tart using a Vidalia onion and it was good, but the balance between sweet and savory wasn’t what we expected.
Keith Law: I never buy Vidalias for that very reason.

Minnie: Would you suspect that the White Sox had the option of either Moncada or Devers as the centerpiece of the Sale deal and that knowing what they knew at the time they made the correct decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they had the choice. I would have chosen Devers in that situation, which was reflected in my prospect rankings at the time.

JJ: Does Blake Swihart need a change of organization, has the prospect ship sailed, or is this just a year of bad luck? The Red Sox always seemed strangely indifferent toward his potential success.
Keith Law: He might need a trade so he can go to a team that will just let him play regularly … I can’t believe he’s just forgotten how to hit after he hit so well in the high minors before last year. Boston isn’t likely to be in a position to hand him a regular job next year, though, and that’s what he really needs.

Tony: What kind of player do you project Ian Happ to be? Really good power but poor plate discipline this year. Also might be the worst imposter located in center field but that’s not his fault…
Keith Law: I strongly disagree that he has poor plate discipline. I think he has some contact issues, but he’s not a hacker or impatient. He’ll work deep counts and strike out too often.

silv: DJ Peters won the Cal League MVP. Big pop, big kid, big Ks, young for the level (though not super young). Thoughts on his outlook?
Keith Law: Good hitter’s park too. Good chance for an above average regular in RF/LF with some risk because of the contact issues you mentioned.

Greg: I am looking for beginner games for my 3 year old son. He loves Animal Upon Animal. Anything else to recommend?
Keith Law: Chicken Cha-Cha-Cha was a favorite of my daughter’s at that age. He’s not too far from Ticket to Ride: First Journey either.

Jesse: Do you expect Luis Robert to start next season at low A ball?
Keith Law: Probably. I guess low-A or high-A would work, but I’d start him at the lower level since he’ll be coming from the DSL.

Nick: What’s your opinion of Jesus Sanchez? Seems like other younger guys who have over the last year become industry consensus top 100 prospects have been written about more (e.g. Tatis, Bichette, Alvarez, Florial). Is Sanchez on par with guys? If the power comes, seems like he could be a star at the plate?
Keith Law: Florial’s not a top 100 guy for me; Sanchez probably will be. Florial’s tooled up with huge swing and miss issues; Sanchez is much less toolsy but projects to a plus hit tool.

Jim: I really enjoyed the recent podcasts you hosted. It’s wonderful to be able to experience you in that format rather than on the twitter cesspool.
Keith Law: Thank you – it was fun to do those. And yes, it’s a much better format for humor and snark than Twitter.

Tyler: Forget command, any chance Josh Staumont ever gains control?
Keith Law: Delivery is clean. It’s not mechanical; it’s mental.

Sean: Any thoughts from a scouting perspective on whether Delmonico can be an average to above average bat?
Keith Law: I thought so when he was much younger, but didn’t know if he had a position at all. Then he wasn’t good, got suspended, was released … and has been a little more like predraft reports since the White Sox signed him. I think it’s fair to think he could end up a low-average power bat with some OBP skills, a fringe regular who’ll play for the White Sox now but maybe get passed by better prospects later.

Evan: Is Max Fried a long term starter for the Braves or has he been shuffled back in the pack because of an awful 2017?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a starter. Too athletic, too good a pitch mix to give up on that.
Keith Law: Bummed he was sent out – they play here next week and I was hoping to go see him.

Mike : Have you gotten to watch any of Hoskins since his call up? What are your thoughts on how he’s adjusting?
Keith Law: I’ve seen more highlights than full at bats. Does seem like he’s doing a good job taking the right pitches and getting himself into good counts. I think he’s a 55 – an above-average regular – for a good long while.

Jeremy: Hey Klaw, think I’m going to spring for KingDomino thanks to your review. Looks fun!
Keith Law: Enjoy! I like it quite a bit even though it’s a lighter game than I usually like.

Tyler Smith: Should Ronald Acuna be in the majors right now?
Keith Law: No, but I bet he’s up in a week or so.

Luke: I saw where you seemed to really like the Cities of Splendor expansions? How much of a difference to they make in strategy and gameplay?
Keith Law: I played three of the four; two of those just layer something on the base game (Cities and Trading Posts) that really fits in well with the basic concept. Strongholds changes the game a lot – you get to put a temporary block or hold on a card on the table, and if someone else wants that card, they have to remove your stronghold(s) first. I thought that made the game more interactive, but in a cutthroat way.

The Average Sports Fan: Do you think Nick Senzel can play 2b?
Keith Law: This would surprise me.

Jeff: Hey Keith, love your work. Do you think Jerimiah Estrada has front line potential or do you think it’s too early to predict at the moment. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think he does.

Franc: From a hitting (ok, fine, fantasy) perspective, who would you rather have moving forward, Josh Bell or Dominic Smith?
Keith Law: Love both, probably Bell for higher power ceiling.

Philip: What kind of reports have you gotten on Logan Allen (Padres)?
Keith Law: Glowing.

Mick: Might it be a good sign that baseball is becoming more popular in Italy w/ them being the Euro/Africa rep for the past two years?
Keith Law: I hope so, if only to get a scouting trip there once before I retire.

Will: I don’t feel generally depressed or anxious, but the state of politics is overwhelmingly depressing.
Keith Law: I would agree with the latter half of that statement.

Lukas: Has Blake Snell turned the corner? Or still too small a sample of good pitching to say?
Keith Law: Too small a sample, but it’s a nice sign. I’m still a fan.

Erix: How much should I make of stories of hitters’ improvements due to improved vision? Danny Jansen started wearing glasses this season and is raking, but also is healthy for the first time ever
Keith Law: I think it’s the latter. Jays people have talked him up for two years but he’s always been hurt.

Will: What is antifa? I have my own suspicions (false equivalence of the far right), but I’d like to hear you.
Keith Law: “Antifa” is the word the far right/Nazi sympathizers like to use to try to distract from their own misdeeds. I don’t think it actually exists any more than “alt-left” does.

Chris: What kind of contract do you see Eric Hosmer getting this winter?
Keith Law: More than I thought in May … but not much more. The number of teams with the need for a 1b and the money to pay him remains quite small, and his career record isn’t great for a 1b’s bat.

Alex R : Hey Keith, I’m wondering if you’ve heard anything about fellow Long Islander Kyle Young. 6’11 LHP with a 57/12 K/BB ratio this season. Is he a guy?
Keith Law: He’s a maybe.

Bob: Hoskins just hit his 8th home run. I know you were a bit higher on him than others. What do you see as his ceiling?
Keith Law: See above – but I concede I never saw this kind of power coming. I thought he was Goldschmidt Lite, not Full Goldschmidt.

Sean: What’s going on with Trent Clark this year?
Keith Law: That whole lineup has gone flat. Ray is striking out a ton, Erceg hasn’t hit close to expectations. I don’t have a good answer.

Greg: How would you rank Atlanta’s Rome trio of Bryse Wilson, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz?
Keith Law: Anderson, Wilson, Wentz. Case for Wilson over Anderson.

MJ: I picked up Great Western Trail based mostly on your positive review a while back. I’ve only played it twice (and only with 2 players) but it seems as though the best strategy to win is to focus on buying all the best cows. Is that what you’ve found as well (assuming you’ve played it more and/or with more players than I have)?
Keith Law: I thought a broader strategy mattered – don’t ignore the workers, especially. But I haven’t played it a ton. The only downside to being a reviewer is that I don’t go back to great games as often as I’d like.

Raphael: Curious, how come there was no ranking for best command in your write up like last year?
Keith Law: No reason.

J: This is a semi-question and semi-statement, hopefully reasonably cogent and not too reductive. Venezuela is in the process of collapse. Do you know if MLB is doing anything to help players/players’ families/any involvement at all? Or in lieu of that, are you hearing anything about what players are doing? As I track Ronald Acuna’s (and Jose Altuve’s) incredible seasons, I keep thinking of what awaits them at home. This may be too much of a question for a chat, but been on my mind for a while.
Keith Law: I don’t know of anything other than telling teams not to send personnel there. Some agents in VZ brought prospects to Aruba a month ago for a workout to compensate. MLB should really make this formal if they care at all about the pipeline and the welfare of both players and scouts.

Patrick: How concerned are you by Moncada’s astronomical K-rate in the majors? I know you’ve typically been lower on him than other writers due to your concerns about swing mechanics. Do you think he’s more first-division regular than star?
Keith Law: This is in line with my expectations and, I think, everything I’ve written about him the last year or so. He’s going to take some time. He’s also a pretty sick athlete and I wouldn’t put anything out of his reach either – he just has specific mechanical and approach problems that have to change.

Greg Bird fan: He probably doesn’t get much playing time with the Yankees, but do you see Jake Cave as an everyday player somewhere? He seems to be having a really solid year.
Keith Law: I don’t – more of an extra guy.

Dog: Do you think the Rays will give Brendan McKay a real shot at being a two-way player? If not, do you think he ends up as a pitcher or 1B, long term?
Keith Law: They say they will. I think eventually he’ll end up at one or the other. I feel like either is a real possibility now.

J: You’re the Colorado Rockies. Where do you start McMahon and Rodgers in 2018? And what do you do with Lucroy?
Keith Law: Lucroy is a free agent. McMahon could be their first baseman on Opening Day. Rodgers has to go back to double-A, and shouldn’t be promoted until he’s hit some specific targets for patience and plate discipline. He can hit, he has some pop, he can play short, but you can’t send him to the PCL until he’s shown he can work the count.

Trini: Dillon Tate – does he project as a starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Starter possible again. He’s regained some of the lost velocity.

mike: I’ve read some websites say Vlad Jr could see some MLB time next year, that would be rushing him through levels wouldn’t it?
Keith Law: I think he and Tatis could both see the majors next year.

Nate: Keith, am I crazy for thinking Alec Hansen could be a top 50 guy in the offseason?
Keith Law: Yes, you are crazy, and that’s only one reason of many.

Brian : I know he is old for the FSL despite being drafted this year but Rooker is off to a great start. Do you think he can be a league average player?
Keith Law: Yep, that’s probably the best case scenario because he might be a DH and won’t be an asset on the field. More likely an up-and-down guy, but everyday player is possible.

Grant: Would would happen to Twitter if Trump was banned from tweeting?
Keith Law: I think it would hurt their business substantially. A lot of users – granted, a lot of users I wouldn’t miss – would probably quit the service.

M.D. Pepper : Jarred Kelenic, all five-tools average or better?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Rhys Hoskins: I just homered again. That’s 8 in 15 games. Can I keep this up?
Keith Law: There is no way you can homer while also submitting chat questions. It’s just not possible.

Lilith: How do Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker compare to Hunter Greene? Is it close at all?
Keith Law: All pretty different. Greene is the best athlete and was younger on draft day. Rocker is already filled out with a body like a 23-year-old. Hankins is the most polished pitcher of the three for his age.

Saxton: Did you see anything at GenCon (besides Kingdomino, which we already have and enjoy) that would be good to play with a 7 year old daughter? Thanks for the chats and all your other writing!
Keith Law: Please read the long writeup I posted at Paste, which I think has a bunch of games that might fit, but Kerala comes to mind as something light, easy to learn, and still fun for adults.

Logic: Who survives in the Angelos/Duquette/Showalter triangle? Compared to their predecessors it has worked well. But it seems unlikely to continue.
Keith Law: Only one thing can stop Angelos, so of the three, I bet Showalter topples Duquette and survives into next year.

Dave: What happened with the Astros at the trade deadline? Was it just a simple matter of them not wanting to give up their top prospects?
Keith Law: What was the benefit to them trading top prospects when they had already sealed up the division? It made no sense to give up that much value.

John: What do you think of Tatis’ promotion to AA? Do you think this is a temporary end of season trip, or does he have a chance to start there beginning of next season?
Keith Law: Chance to start there, but also chance to promote him and still extend his season into September because San Antonio is headed to the playoffs (and Lake Elsinore isn’t).

Archie: Is it unreasonable to be optimistic that Derek Hill has started to hit since returning from TJ, or did he just take advantage of a level he should have mastered a year or two ago?
Keith Law: Not unreasonable at all. Glad they bumped him up to high-A; the development plan should be for him to reach double-A next July, assuming he continues to hit in high-A, since he’ll play at 22 next year.

Zack: Is Michael Hermosillo anything more than a Quad-A player?
Keith Law: I think so. Chance for a regular.

Teddy: Is it better to throw 85 pitches in one day once a week, or throw 35-50 pitches every other day for a couple of weeks? Just asking so I know when the 6’2″ kid from NC in Williamsport can expect to have his arm explode.
Keith Law: I don’t know. That’s a good question but I don’t know the answer.

Grant: What’s Jose Siri’s projection?
Keith Law: Why don’t you ask her?

dan: You had a follower ask if the padres 2016 draft is just meh based off the results so far? Its mind boggling. Quantrill, Lauer, Lucchesi will probably all be in the rotation at some point (granted, it will be back end), Hudson Potts is really young, and performing better. Reggie Lawson has been good. Mason Thompson is still very intriguing. This looks like a good draft at this point. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: This is how I feel about it too.

Ike: Is Mitchell white a top 50 prospect by seasons end? Seems to have a nice #2/3 profile.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50 in April, just missed in July, probably makes it or is very very close in January due to promotions ahead of him.

Andrew: Gammons said a few days ago that someone who he respects thinks Whitley is the best pitching prospect in baseball. Agree or disagree?
Keith Law: Agree. He’s on the short list for that – him, Kopech, Buehler, Keller.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you observe National Waffle Day or are you of different faith? If so, savory or sweet?
Keith Law: I didn’t know that was today. I love waffles – I make big batches and freeze them to toast and eat like bread. Savory/sweet, doesn’t matter. What matters is that you put a ton of fat in them. My recipe is about 1 3/4 cups of flours and 12 tbsp of butter + oil.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Byron Buxton? Overall numbers don’t look great due to the first month of the year but if you take that out he looks pretty good. Is he finally turning into the player many thought he’d be in the big leagues?
Keith Law: I believe so. I said on Twitter that he’s a star and I stand by it: He’s the best defensive CF in baseball and he’s showing enough progress at the plate that I’m very, very confident he’s becoming the player I forecasted he’d be (and so did everyone else … this isn’t just me).

Lance: Has any regular ever had more HR’s than doubles like Smoak?
Keith Law: That has happened over 500 times since 2000 according to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index. Smoak is at 34 HR and 22 2B, a ratio of 1.54; there have been 116 player-seasons with a HR/2B ratio over 1.5 in that span. Hoskins, however, takes the cake: 8 HR, 0 2B, for an undefined HR/2B ratio.

Hogie: Wilmer Difo has done well filling in for the Nats this season. Everyday regular at SS for someone?
Keith Law: Everyday regular somewhere for someone.

Claw: Keith – Acuna is tearing up AAA – regarding the levels, was he seeing better pitching at AA or AAA?
Keith Law: This is small sample noise.

Justin: Klaw, loved your Gen Con review. Can’t believe I didn’t know about Cities of Splendor, but it is now at the top of my list. I’m also curious about Ancestree. Based on how you ranked it, I presume it’s pretty good. I’ve played one other lineage-creating game, “Legacy: Testament of Duke de Crecy,” and while generally enjoyable, I found that a “birth complication” mechanism, where the player might choose whether to save the mother or child, to be an uncomfortable element. Can you comment on whether Ancestree has any such off-putting elements that one might imagine could be present in a lineage-creating board game?
Keith Law: Nah, in Ancestree you’re just laying tiles, never removing, never worrying about stuff like you describe. It’s light.

Ben: Have you ever read “Cutting for Stone” by Abraham Verghese?
Keith Law: No – but I’ve had folks recommend it to me.

Marcus: Tyler Beede has been having a disappointing season in Sacramento. Cause for concern about the Giants’ top pitching prospect or is it just taking awhile for him to adjust to the level?
Keith Law: It’s also a tough place to pitch (the PCL in general, less specifically Sacramento). He had 5 starts where he gave up 5 or more earned runs; four came in severe hitters’ parks, one at home. I’m really only concerned/surprised that he hasn’t missed more bats. He’s also been on the DL for a month with a groin injury.

Russ: Thoughts on the decrease in age at which baseball recruiting is falling to. Seeing 8th graders verbally commit. Also seeing colleges w/ 17-22 player signing classes and having 22-25 returning players. 2nd time through this process, and it has changed in 3-4 years.
Keith Law: The NCAA, which has never done the right thing ever, should ban such “verbal commitments,” which are worth about as much as anything you’ve flushed down your toilet in the last 24 hours.

JR: Conforto just hurt himself swinging the bat, which is a perfect summary of the Mets 2017 season.
Keith Law: Terry was right to prevent him from swinging the bat all those games last year.

Rick C: Is Ian Anderson hurt, or are the Braves just limiting his innings?
Keith Law: I believe he’s been shut down due to an innings cap. He’s not hurt.

Andy: For a while it looked as if Folty for the Braves had started to figure it out, but has recently fell apart. Do you think he will ever figure it out or is he better off in the bullpen?
Keith Law: Showed way too much as a starter before his last two outings to let those ruin his season. He was league-average on the season before the start at Coors.

avid reader of smrt baseball: what a useless stat Rich Hill being a losing pitcher?
Keith Law: I hate that that is the narrative. The Dodgers lost the game. Don’t fucking blame Hill like HE did something wrong.

Kyle: On a scale of 20-80 how excited are you for Pax Unplugged?
Keith Law: After I had such a blast at GenCon, that’s an 80, like Judge has 80 power or Buxton has 80 speed kind of 80.

Mark: T/F: Miguel Andujar posts at least two 3+ WAR seasons
Keith Law: Hm. If he gets the playing time, yes.

Hinkie: Is Brady Singer a better prospect than either AJ Puk or Alex Faedo were after their sophomore years at Florida ?
Keith Law: Nope. If healthy, Kowar is a better pro prospect than Singer.

Dan: Is Johan Oviedo the next big Cardinals pitching prospect? Has a ways to go but it seems like the upside is quite substantial.
Keith Law: Upside is huge. Also, over/under on times I refer to him as Juan Carlos: 2.5.

Bob: What is outlook of the 2014 Yankees spending spree look three years out?
Keith Law: International? Not great given the sheer quantity signed.

Patrick: Is Scott Kingery good enough to draw walks at the big league level. The hit tool is obviously legit, i just want to make sure he can lay off enough pitches to walk and not strikeout too much. Also, is he the best defensive second baseman in AAA
Keith Law: Swings early and often. Doesn’t miss much. I’ll at least roll with a guy like that, rather than a guy like Williams who swings a lot and misses a lot too.

Daniel: On a scale of 1 to ER MER GERD, how excited should I be for Fernando Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: He’s going to end up in my top 10 this winter.

JJ: Will Trevor Hoffmann eventually get into the HOF? He compiled impressive save stats, and some voters love compilers, but he gets crushed by having a career that so closely coincided with Mariano’s. “Closer” seems like it would be the hardest position to evaluate for a HOF voter.
Keith Law: He will get in this winter, but does not deserve to.

Todd: Which Brewer prospect at Carolina has been more disappointing: Ray, Clark, or Diaz? Which one has the most hope of turning it around?
Keith Law: Ray most disappointing to me. Diaz probably still the best chance to turn it around. But I’m also wondering if there’s a systemic issue there that four hitters (+ Erceg) all flopped there this year.

Chris: Luis Guillorme : 70/80 glove, .370 OBP in AA, zero pop, blocked in NY. Feel like he’s a sleeper.
Keith Law: Not a sleeper, just a quality backup. Don’t see the OBP sticking around with no pop and below-average hit tool. He is probably an 80 defender, though. Rey Ordonez?

Leonard: Pedro Gonzalez just got traded to the Rangers, what’s his ceiling ?
Keith Law: Ceiling is really high – maybe a 60 – but with low probability. Still a ways off, more raw ability than present game skills.

Evan: It’s a small sample size but Rafael Montero has looked decent in his most recent stint as a starter. Is there anything different that he’s doing that could lead to him being the pitcher the Mets thought they once had when he was a prospect?
Keith Law: Maybe just that he’s healthy again?

Pat D: Keith, we’ve had the opportunity to communicate a few times in the past, via Facebook, your blog, and your chats, but there’s one question that’s always been on my mind that I just have to ask: how do you type with boxing gloves on your hands? ?
Keith Law: DELETED

Brian : For what it’s worth, we ran a sympathetic piece explaining who antifa are: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2017/08/16/who-…
Keith Law: Thank you – I’ll add this to my reading list.

section 34: Hey Keith, you sometimes retweet racist and ignorant comments with snarky replies, which I enjoy. I’m curious about what percentage, roughly, of people commenting to you would you call racist, as opposed to ignorant about baseball (pro-RBI, etc). Also, is this percentage higher on Twitter or other media? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t get that many racist/sexist/homophobic comments any more because I block people who say that shit. I don’t need you as a fan or reader if you can’t treat others as fundamentally equal.

Craig: I know and everyone who isn’t a Hot Take Talking Head knows that Tim Tebow is not a legitimate baseball prospect. But is what he is doing in the minors a legitimate athletic accomplishment? I doubt there are many 29 year olds — who haven’t played since high school — that could top the Mendoza line at High A. Is that wrong?
Keith Law: If you’re not looking at him in baseball terms, sure. But he’s a waste of a roster spot that should go to someone who isn’t just screwing around.

Ethan: Last year Josh Bell showed the extreme plate discipline and bat-on-ball abilities that he’s known for, but not as much power. This year, the tables have turned on the two–though not extremely. What are the chances he brings the two together?
Keith Law: High. 75%. I think it’s all in there – he has shown each of these skills in isolation.

Proops: Lance McCullers: is his future still in the bullpen?
Keith Law: If he can’t stay healthy, yes. He’s never reached 160 innings in any pro season and won’t come close again this year. He’s thrown 194 total since the start of 2016.

Luke: Will Pache develop 20 hrs power in the next 2 years ?
Keith Law: In the next 5 years, yes.

Gene Mullett: Any opinion of The Atlantic? Was surprised to see Rosenthal join. Gotta imagine someone has tried to recruit you by now.
Keith Law: No opinion as I haven’t read any of their content. I support the idea of outlets charging subscribers and then providing (or at least trying to provide) higher-quality content.

Andrew: Klaw – Love your stuff, a weekly lunch hour highlight! Can you summarize briefly the less-optimal aspects of Severino’s motion? Worth trying to fix or let it ride given the results this year?
Keith Law: Never used his lower half at all in his delivery; guys who do that don’t generally develop command and often get hurt. Wouldn’t change a thing with him now – he’s having success, ride it until something goes wrong.

Luke: Acuna or Eloy ?
Keith Law: Eloy has more of a chance to be a star, a 60 or a 70, Acuna more likely to have a longer career as a regular.

Bucs: If I’m not mistaken, you scouted Keller in person recently; what did you see?
Keith Law: I did and here’s the post for Insiders, also including notes on Cole Tucker, Hays, Mountcastle, and others.

Declan: Otani a 2 way guy, or not, and what is your guess on his salary?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Salary depends on when he’s posted because of the new CBA.

Evan: Is there anything to be worried about with Amed Rosario’s low walk rate and high strikeout rate in the MLB? Right now he has just one walk and 26 strikeouts in 22 games.
Keith Law: It’s. Twenty. Two. Games.

Evan: Dom Smith hasn’t hit much so far. Do you think it’s just because he’s adjusting to MLB pitching? Or is it something that fans should worry about?
Keith Law: It’s. Thirteen. Games.

Concerned: Why does everything have to be left or right, conservative or liberal, democrat or republican? Why does everything have to be partisan? What’s wrong with just being a good person, helping others, and throwing politics in the gutter where it belongs?
Keith Law: You won’t last long on the internet, my friend.

Concerned: To piggy back Trump tweeting question, do you feel he should be allowed to tweet? It strikes me as an extremely odd practice for President, everything else aside, obviously.
Keith Law: What would be the legal rationale for stopping him? It may be unwise for him, but I can’t see the argument against it.

Dr. Bob: You have rightly dismissed those promoting Yadier Molina’s HOF chances. Right now he stands at 28th on the list with 35.6 WAR. If he plays another 4 years and accumulates 9 more wins, he would be 14th on the list. Given that dWAR is tricky for catchers, would that be high enough to at least have a serious discussion about his candidacy?
Keith Law: I think that would leave him on the outside.

Jake: Have you seen any reports on Dylan Carlson? He is very young for his league, but it doesn’t seem like he has the hit tool or power to be an eventual regular. Did the Cardinals reach a little too far with that pick?
Keith Law: I thought it was a reach, but he’s still 18 and in the Midwest League (he turns 19 in October). It’s way too early to draw any conclusions; he could repeat Peoria next year and still be young for the level.

Dr. Bob: You should have the Disneyland Fastpass option so that we could choose to pay to get our questions at the front of the queue.
Keith Law: … 3. PROFIT

Eric: You’re Derek Falvey. Do you shut down Fernando Romero as he’s already surpassed his career high in IP?
Keith Law: Do we actually know what a safe innings jump is? The Verducci claim has been debunked. Now it’s just an assumption without evidence, no?

addoeh: What are the remaining Pulitzers on your list?
Keith Law: After Scarlet Sister Mary, which I’ll finish tomorrow, I will have five left: In This Our Life, The Store, Years of Grace, Guard of Honor, and Andersonville.

Andrew: At this point, who’s the favourite to go # 1 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: There is no clear favorite. The best player might be Rocker, mentioned above, but no HS RHP has ever gone 1-1 and there’s clearly a disinclination among teams to take a prep arm first.

HugoZ: Is it possible that Coppy is being so aggressive about promoting prospects because his contract expires in 2019 and he needs a playoff appearance by then?
Keith Law: Possible, because moral hazard exists, but I don’t believe this is true, based on conversations with him and others in the organization. I also don’t think rushing prospects gets you a playoff appearance.

Mike: Any feedback on Michael Matuella? The numbers don’t look great but he hasn’t broken this year
Keith Law: I enjoy the low expectations in there. “He’s not dead! Hooray!”

Monty: Agree or disagree: At the highest levels, most players have roughly the same ability. The ones who succeed push themselves to be in the best physical condition and tend to be the mentally most prepared to handle the ups and downs of the game?
Keith Law: Disagree.

James: Any idea if Ashe Russell will come back with the Royals?
Keith Law: He had the yips. Few if any come back from that.

Scott: Saw your earlier response re Darvish going to the DL and was wondering if you thought more teams do this than is noticed and if it was something you would consider as a GM?
Keith Law: If it’s allowed you’d be remiss if you didn’t utilize it.

Jake: Luke Weaver, can he keep posting a 3.18 FIP. Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: Bet the over.

Oklahomabrave: Touki has made 8 or so great starts with better control. Figured something out or too soon?
Keith Law: I’ve heard good things. Athletic with a good delivery; no physical reason he couldn’t find control.

addoeh: Does Ian Anderson need a Jethro Tull referenced nickname? Aqualung doesn’t seem too flattering. Maybe Locomotive Breath.
Keith Law: I worked that into one of my capsules on him. What if he posts an ERA of zero to the power of ten?

Will: Will the braves call up Louis Gohara in Sept.? Does he have a third pitch that can be average in the bigs?
Keith Law: He has to go on the 40-man so I think he’ll be up next month.

Franc: Keon Broxton never seemed to be on your radar (from what I could tell); he’s been up and down this year (literally), but what’s your thought on him?
Keith Law: Up and down guy is about what I’ve had on him. Athletic without enough of an approach to be more than that.

Bryce Harper: Mets broadcasters gave you a shout out for your tools articles but wondered why Lagares wasn’t mentioned for arm. Injuries/playing time? Same for Thor and the fastball category?
Keith Law: Lagares’ arm doesn’t make the cut. Thor was because he’s been out with injury – didn’t seem fair to consider him and just assume he’ll be exactly what he was when he returns (he’ll be fine in time, I’m sure). Very kind of the Mets’ announcers to mention me.

Scott: Do you have any interest in the “fight” Saturday?
Keith Law: Hell no. And has anyone asked the Killers why they took money to promote that domestic abuser?

Bobbo: Do you still play/enjoy/top-tenify base Dominion and Intrigue? the 83rd expansion, Nocturne, is slated to come out q4 this year – interested?
Keith Law: Don’t play much any more. Great game, but I got expansion fatigue.

Dan in DC: Thoughts on the Robert Lee story?
Keith Law: Read Will Leitch’s piece today on Sports on Earth. I thought he did a superb job.

Henry: You may not be able to comment, but ESPN blew the whole Robert Lee thing out of proportion. The game would have been seen by about 30,000 people on TV. All of the memes or internet jokes people made about him would have been forgotten by the time Alabama and Florida State kicked off their game later in the evening.
Keith Law: I wasn’t involved in any way, shape, or form in this, but I can say that if I were Lee in that situation, I would have been legitimately concerned about getting caught up in that storm. It’s not fun to be the center of attention for the wrong reasons.

George: Given you don’t have much experience playing baseball, how have you learned to scout and judge peoples mechanics?
Keith Law: I have no experience playing baseball. I’ve spent a lot of time with scouts and execs who were kind enough to teach me and/or answer my questions, and I’ve been seeing players for 12-13 years now too.

jay_B: You have made a lot of Homestar Runner references (including this chat) but I have never seen it. Is it worth going back to watch now, or is it one of those “certain time and place” type things?
Keith Law: It’s goofy but timeless. We introduced our daughter to it and she’s in on the gags too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s a long one but I’m going to end the chat here. Thanks so much for all your questions and for reading. It was great to meet many of you at GenCon as well. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.

I’ll be at GenCon 50 in Indianapolis from Thursday afternoon till Sunday afternoon, signing copies of Smart Baseball Friday at 2 pm, speaking on a few panels, and otherwise checking out all the new titles. If you spot me walking around, please say hello. If you have the book but can’t make the signing, just stop me as I’m walking around and I’ll happily sign it for you.

Keith Law: Took myself a small vacation. Get high on a Klawchat.

Mark: Can you tell me a bit about Danny Jansen’s defence – BP metrics hate him but what do scouts say?
Keith Law: Offense-first catcher, adequate behind the plate, enough to stay there. Biggest issue for him has long been health – I think I had him as a sleeper in their system two years ago (?) but he missed much of that season.

Ben: Did you attend the Under Armour game? If so, when can we expect your writeup?
Keith Law: I did, but probably won’t end up posting on it.

Bryan: Food plans while in Indy?
Keith Law: Probably won’t get to venture out much because I need to stay close to the convention center during the day and have GenCon-related plans two of the three evenings – but I’m open to suggestions.

Michael: What are your expectations for Rhys Hoskins?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. I’m in. He’ll continue to beat expectations.

Clubber Lang: who will end up winning the NL central?? Cubs are the best team on paper but don’t look like they want it??
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure they want it. I also think they will win by just a game or two.

Tim: Do you still hold Byron buxton in as highly of regard as when he was a prospect?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s already an average regular and will develop into much more.

Tom: Does Forrest Whitley have ace ceiling? What’s his most probable outcome, in your opinion?
Keith Law: I’ve talked to scouts who’ve seen him – I can’t believe he pitched in Wilmington while I was on vacation! – and no one says ace. Lot of 2-3 reports, which is still very good. But he’s already filled out, and not a great athlete overall, so he’s more of a high-floor guy than you’d expect given the age.

Charlie: I know you think Domingo Acevedo is a reliever because of the delivery. That said, do you think he can become an elite closer type?
Keith Law: Tough to say; I haven’t seen the huge second pitch that you might expect but he does have the elite fastball for it.

Jon: Has Bryse Wilson always been this good or is he more of a pop-up prospect? I know it’s hard to get pub in the Braves’ loaded system.
Keith Law: I wrote him quite positively back in March, because they had cleaned up his delivery and he was throwing a better breaking ball. That’s improved even more since then.

Matt: What’s your opinion on Corbin Burnes? He’s dominated at every level he’s pitched at so far, but is not on anybody’s top 100 list.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50 a few weeks ago.

bartleby: As America circles the drain, my question is… “why aren’t athletes en masse protesting the current political reality”?
Keith Law: Maybe they see how Kaepernick et al have been treated.

Devin: Who would you rather have for the next three seasons: paul goldschmidt, nolan arenado or corey Seager? Thanks
Keith Law: Seager.

Robert: Now that Bryan Reynolds has cut his K% below 20%, is he more in line with the player you thought he would be coming out of the draft? Thanks.
Keith Law: I expected more power. It is certainly in there, but he hasn’t shown much this year (bearing in mind that San Jose isn’t a great hitter’s park).

Josh: If you were the White Sox, would you have Giolito up and working out of the pen for these last few weeks, and have Cooper working with him directly or would you keep him in Charlotte and continue to work on his issues there?
Keith Law: I’d only bring him up if I could get him regular work – you don’t want him in a short relief role, but if you make him a tandem starter or otherwise a long reliever who goes every Nth day, that’s a good way to bring him up and get him working with Cooper. The Nats really did a number on his mechanics.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What’s your take on Judge: simple reversion to the mean?
Keith Law: Yes, mostly or completely that. His BABIP was unsustainable. Still a great player, but I’ll bet someone else wins MVP – Altuve or sale.

Al: You’ve said before that what Tatis is doing at low A is special. Do you think the power or speed will translate better into the majors? Thanks
Keith Law: Power more than speed, although I think he’s a complete player who’ll do some of everything.

Darren: If you so desired, would it be possible for a company to produce a pod cast for you to encompass anything you want to talk about? Or would ESPN have issues with you discussing baseball for another company?
Keith Law: My contract prohibits me from discussing baseball (sports, really, but there are no other sports) for another outlet. I think that’s perfectly reasonable.

Krupcake: You tweeted you thought the Red Sox kept the right prospects in their recent big trades – was this to mean just Benintendi and Devers? Or would you toss other names into that “glad we kept em” list
Keith Law: Those two in particular. And they did trade some good prospects, especially Kopech, but you trade a guy like that for Sale. I was specifically thinking about the two you mentioned.

Kevin: Would splitting season into 2 halves have any benefit to baseball and injury treatment ?
Keith Law: It would probably kill my fandom. Some folks might call that a benefit.

G: Is Ronald Acuna a baby Trout in the making?
Keith Law: I’m going to go with ‘no’ on that one.

ssimo02: Rumor has it Giancarlo Stanton cleared waivers. Given his recent performance (and setting aside any no-trade clause), do you think the contract is untradeable?
Keith Law: I do, not unless the new owners decide to pay some large portion of the remainder. Loria backloaded all his deals so he could do just this – pay very little of his own money and stick the next owner with the bill.

Mickey: hey keith – congrats and great job on “Smart Baseball” — looking forward to a sequel! Knowing you enjoy cooking, I wonder: do you have an herb garden?
Keith Law: We do have a garden, herbs, some vegetables, and a pumpkin vine that grew out of the compost that has already yielded one giant fruit with more coming.

Will: Why does Twitter continue to let Dick Spencer and Davey Duke use their service? Are they fucked in the head?
Keith Law: It’s a good question. I’m pretty sure that whole neo-Nazi contingent violates Twitter’s ToS every time they take a breath.

Jack: How would you compare Hunter Greene to Sixto Sanchez?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. Greene’s taller, more athletic, with a better chance for plus secondary. Sanchez is 5’10” and a more polished pitcher but lacks projection. They’re not terribly comparable at all.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Have you heard any updates from scouts on JP Crawford? You sent a ripple in the fandom with your comments last time. Also, what’s it like knowing that you can singlehandedly change the public outlook on one player?
Keith Law: It’s incredibly unfortunate – even more so because they weren’t MY comments, but comments from scouts and executives. And a local Philly news outlet used that content and some comments from John Manuel at BA in blog posts that were comically biased, cheering Crawford on and acting like this should be bulletin-board material. FWIW, I haven’t heard anything different on him in the last month. I’m glad he’s playing better, but scouts aren’t seeing anything different yet.

The Average Sports Fan: Has Moncada been pretty much what you expected since his promotion?
Keith Law: I guess, although in such a small sample you could expect anything and still be within reason.

Steven: Keibert Ruiz: (barely) 19 yr old C in A+, 12% K rate across two levels and has hit .300+ at every stop in his, albeit, short career. Stat line and age-level case looks strong, can you offer the scouting take?
Keith Law: Saw him in March. Big strong kid, looks like he can hit (good swing, feel to hit), did not get much of a look behind the plate but folks tell me he’s a bat-first guy.

Young Hoss Radbourn: Greetings, Klaw. If you had to hang your hat on one guy becoming a star, who would it be out of Fernando Tatis, Jr, Forest Whitley, Juan Soto, or Bo Bichette?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr.

addoeh: Many Republicans may be blind to problems of climate change, and anti-vax, and a host of other issues, but at least they are smart enough to see that neo-Nazis are the fucking worst. It’s a low bar, but it’s something. Shame our President doesn’t see it that way.
Keith Law: Shame so many officials in government only feel that way in private conversations, instead of going on the record.

jim: Afternoon Keith. Finally finished Smart Baseball and loved it. Do you think this season for the Mets is just a bump in the road or the start of another down turn? They seem to have the makings of a really solid core with Conforto, Cespedes, Rosario, and Smith but the rotation, outside maybe deGrom and Noah, and bullpen are still question marks. Thanks!
Keith Law: I agree the rotation needs help. You could argue they had bad luck with health, and some of that (Thor with a non-arm injury) is true, but Harvey isn’t reliable, Matz has no history of health, and even deGrom is probably less consistent than you want. But the offensive core is coming together really nicely. Szapucki getting hurt and Dunn scuffling so badly in A-ball both hurt their depth badly.

Tommy: How have Michel Baez’s secondary pitches progressed this season?
Keith Law: Well. Have heard the CH has shown plus and the breaking ball above average.

Aiden: Okay, let’s start with a difficult one for our president to answer: Nazis, good or bad?
Keith Law: Gotta hear both sides, Aiden.

JD: Odds that Devers keeps up the Sanchez-esque (Sahchezque?) late-season debut?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t predict he keeps this up, but I have long contended that Devers will be a superstar and I’m not budging.

Brian: Javier Baez has a 5.3% walk rate. Which, not great. Hides the more concerning thing that 11 of his 19 walks are IBBs (10 in front of pitchers). What are the chances he can become more than this? And what he is now isn’t a disaster as a guy that can play fine defense anywhere on the IF….but it leaves me wanting more.
Keith Law: This is probably what he is – 90% chance this is it. Useful, not a regular.

John: Focusing only on defense, how worried should a Red Sox fan be about a left side of the infield with Devers and Bogaerts? I feel like the defensive stats have been all over the map for Bogaerts.
Keith Law: Bogaerts is an enigma to me – he had power as a teenager, but makes relatively poor contact; he has good hands and instincts, but generally grades out poorly by advanced defensive metrics. Devers will be fine, but they may need a better glove at short.
Keith Law: Which puts X … nowhere.

Tommy: With Reynolds crashing back to Earth, is McMahon going to take the long side of a 1B platoon in COL rest of season?
Keith Law: Would love to see that.

BE: Enjoyed the book. Thanks for touching on the caught stealing. Is there a way to quantify GIDP or is there too much RBI type noise?
Keith Law: Fangraphs tries to value it, but you nailed the problem (opportunities vary). It’s a skill in that a certain player type – slow runner, hard contact, too many balls hit on the ground – will hit into more of them.

Danny: Still very early but has Nick Williams performance thus far exceeded your expectations?
Keith Law: Nope.

Lenny: Let’s say Kopech turns into a #2 (too many walks or something keeping him from being a true ace) and Moncada plateaus into something like a league-average guy, perhaps a tick more. Would the White Sox be happy with an outcome like that – even if they hoped for more? (not saying this is the likely outcome at all, just speculating on how blockbuster trades like that are viewed later on)
Keith Law: They should be happy with that, but I would guess White Sox fans would be disappointed in that outcome because both players have the potential to be more.

Rob K: Some BP prospect writers seem to be down on Dom Smith (relative to others) because the hit tool is hard to evaluate. I guess my question is: is the hit tool hard to evaluate?
Keith Law: The hit tool is hard to evaluate. Smith’s hit tool is not hard to evaluate. You won’t find many scouts, if any, who question his ability to hit. He’s been showing it since he was 16.

Nick: Acevedo is know to have a really good changeup why do you say he has no secondary stuff?
Keith Law: Because I’ve seen him multiple times.

Steve: Duplantier is a bit old for A+, but since he’s dominating in the CAL League, does that mitigate his age relative to league a bit?
Keith Law: Less worried about age than lack of a clear out pitch. Like the delivery, the overall repertoire, wish there was a clear 60 or betterthere.

Chet: If Stanton hits 60+ HR’s, do you think he has a realistic shot at the NL MVP? (I’m sure he wouldn’t get your vote, but would he get others)
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Goldschmidt, Seager, Rendon in some order. Any would be worthy.

JR: In the recent Mets trades, do you think they were focused more on dumping salary then maximizing return (thanks, Wilpons), or did they do the best they could given the circumstances and the lack of market for guys they were looking to trade?
Keith Law: I think 1) they wanted to dump salary and 2) no one really wanted these players.

Chet: How surprised would you be if Dane Dunning is the best pitcher that the White Sox acquired in there rebuild?
Keith Law: Very. That would mean he was better than Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez. Hard to see that happening.

Jake: I know Willie Calhoun has some defensive flaws–can he still be a valuable player at DH?
Keith Law: It depends on your definition of valuable; I think his upside there is an everyday player. He’s very strong for his size, and he can definitely hit. I don’t know if there’s a position he can play adequately.

Bob: Enough data on Kevin Maitan for a better read at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – bumping him up to the Appy League at 17 clouds the data.

Mike: We all know Eloy’s bat will play anywhere, but what about his defense? I’ve seen reports that he’s going to be above average right fielder than others that say he will be below average in left.
Keith Law: Above average for me. I’ve seen him plenty.

Kevin: Trey Mancini: you buying or selling?
Keith Law: I guess selling, in that I think he’ll regress from this, but will be an everyday player.

Mike B: Tim Beckham? Obviously he won’t keep up the pace he’s set since he joined the O’s, but do you think he’s finally putting it all together? Is he a “needed a change of scenery” guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think anything has changed but the randomness of a small sample; he does this same thing in Tampa and no one notices because the stats aren’t broken out from the rest of his season. I thought it was a decent pickup for Baltimore, but also really like the arm Tampa got back.

Nate: Keith, are there 5 names to keep an eye on for the 2018 draft?
Keith Law: In no order, Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker, Brice Turang(arang), Jackson Kowar, Seth Beer. I don’t know if those are the top 5, but they’re 5 to watch.

Ryan: I know how you feel about Tebow the player but – marketing, etc. considered – does he retire with over/under 0.5 at-bats at the MLB level?
Keith Law: I think someone will give him at bats for the publicity. He’s not doing anything to merit it – he didn’t even deserve the promotion to high-A – but money talks.

Ortho Stice: I see lots of people trying to decipher Miguel Cabrera’s “down year”, but hardly a mention of what it must be like to try and focus on baseball with the turmoil in Venezuela. Isn’t that a fairly plausible explanation?
Keith Law: Possible, but he’s also a 34-year-old player at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum. He could just be getting old, too.

Harvey Dent: How much has Michael Chavis restored his prospect stock? It seems like he’s tailing off a little bit after a blistering run, but still solid overall
Keith Law: I’m inclined to write off 2016 completely because he was playing hurt – like Eric Hosmer’s bad year in low-A when he had a broken metacarpal in his hand.

Mas: Jen-Ho Tseng was not on your Cubs top 10 prospect list but seems to be doing really well in AAA. Is he potentially starter-worthy, and what’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a starter in the long run; fastball is pretty flat, doesn’t have a definite out pitch. Strike thrower though with a lot of average stuff so I do think he’ll pitch in the majors.

BJ: Any chance Padres’ Enyel de Los Santos can crack rotation in ’18?
Keith Law: I get the sense he’s more like two years away than one.

Bret: Has your future outlook for Dansby Swanson changed at all based on his struggles this season?
Keith Law: No. Plenty of good players struggled in their first time through the majors. I try to always avoid that kind of recency bias, because it’s so easy to fall into that trap.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Has your thoughts on Moniak changed due to his struggles in his first year or was this to be expected?
Keith Law: I mentioned in July after I saw him that I don’t like how poor his recognition of breaking stuff is – especially vs lefties. And there isn’t going to be power with that narrow stance and lack of weight transfer. I think there’s untapped physical ability there, but right now he’s definitely behind where I expected him to be – and IIRC I only had him 5th in the draft class to begin with.

Jon: Does Aaron Nola have the ceiling of an ace?
Keith Law: With that new changeup, he might. I’d probably put my money on a #2 rather than a #1.

Nick: Does Devers stick at 3B long term? If not where does he move to?
Keith Law: I have never had any doubt about him at 3b.

Ray T R: Is there another gear for Eduardo Rodriguez? Seems like he is slipping into the Buchholz void of frequent injury and tantalizing but too inconsistent of results
Keith Law: The knee issues are a real concern.

AtownAA: any chance chris taylor is this for real? like the swing change made him that much better ala justin turner previous changes?
Keith Law: Not buying. No one can sustain a .396 BABIP.

Nick: Aaron Hicks’ breakout this year has been something to watch. He looks like a true 5 tool player with a high .OBP Is this the player you expected him to become as a prospect?
Keith Law: Yep, maybe a year or two after I thought he’d get there.

Matt : Did you read that article last week (I forget who wrote it) about how Jeter doesn’t like the shift (and sabermetrics in general) and may not allow the manager to use it. The dude is gonna hire Dave Stewart as GM and Dusty Baker as the manager isn’t he?
Keith Law: I didn’t, but if so, holy cow is that great news for the media.

Kody: are the Republicans really the anti-vaxers? I tend to see that being the one anti-science point of the far left.
Keith Law: I think you’ll find anti-vax stuff at both extremes (a lot of it in fringe religious groups, like Christian “Scientists”), but if you want to find anti-science nonsense on the left, it’s the anti-GMO looney toons.

JR: Withe Rosario and Smith now at MLB, who would you rank as Mets top prospect still in minors?
Keith Law: Ummmmmmmmm …. probably Peterson. Maybe Dunn. Dunn has higher upside, but he’s clearly not as far along as I thought.

Chet: Who is better: Jorge Soler or Rusney Castillo?
Keith Law: Ouch.

Tim: When you say “regular” when referring to a player – are you thinking a regular on a playoff team or a regular for any team that can hold his role multiple years? 1st and 2nd tier regular gets thrown around a lot.
Keith Law: If I say “regular” I mean someone right around league average over a couple of years, but rarely if ever so far above-average that we call him “above-average” or “star.”

Matt : Can you scout from home and watch on TV or is it something you need to see in person?
Keith Law: For what I do, I need to be at the games or to get video from a scout friend of mine (since I mimic what they do).

Adam: Has Christian Pache’s lack of power output affected his prospect status in any major way? Has his realistic ceiling dropped because of it?
Keith Law: He’s 18 years old in the Sally League, and he looks about 16. Not only is the question – or I guess the implication? – an overreaction, I think that Pache will end up a 20 HR guy in the majors. He still has to grow into his body.

NYTT: Joey Wentz has been getting great results in Rome. I know you spoke weeks ago about wanting to see better pure stuff, but is he a guy that already has realistic MOR upside and can be more if he adds a couple mph through natural projection?
Keith Law: No, I’d probably drop a half-grade on everything you said there. He’s fine, but doesn’t have Wilson’s upside.

Brian: Is the hit tool hard to evaluate because the level of stuff and control/command at the MLB level is so much better than in the minors that you’re kind of guessing if the hit tool maintains or if it’s just good enough to hit lesser stuff?
Keith Law: That’s part of it. Stuff is less consistent pitcher to pitcher in the minors. And certainly you can see guys make solid contact over a multiple-game stretch despite a below-average hit tool.

Nick: Yeah and you’ve seen Severino multiple times and he apparently had no chance to start…..
Keith Law: I’ve said before I could be wrong on Severino – I could be wrong on ANY player. But he’s been a good starter for 2/3 of a season, after he was awful last year. If a pitcher has poor mechanics that may lead to a breakdown, it may not happen in year one or two. Maybe it’ll never happen. But perhaps you should consider dialing back on the recency bias yourself.

Jim Bankoff: What is your take on the Deadspin SBN piece?
Keith Law: The SBN model is common, it’s probably unethical, I have no idea if it’s illegal, but it is one of many serious problems facing the media as a whole. The proliferation of free content provided by unpaid or very poorly paid writers creates unfair competition for larger media outlets. The benefit, however, is that outlets like SBN provide opportunities for writers who might otherwise have been shut out of the market because they lacked access or contacts, because their writing didn’t fit a conventional role or format, or because of discrimination. So … it’s complicated.

Jackson: Is Florial a top-50 guy at this point?
Keith Law: Nope, not with those contact issues.

Brian: Recently read The Stranger and The Plague by Camus. Wondering if you’d read and if so, if you had any thoughts.
Keith Law: I read the Stranger maybe a decade ago. I just can’t get on board with that sort of nihilistic worldview. I understand what he was saying, but it doesn’t click for me at all.

Wilmer Fan: Pence cuts his trip short, is it finally happening? Also you can build around Conforto or Rosario, who would you pick?
Keith Law: Probably Conforto, just because we’ve seen how good he is.

Tom Allen: Related to your question above, do you think Giolito will still be a 1 or 2 in a major league rotation?
Keith Law: I do.

Tom: Speaking of MVPs, just wanted to point out that Andrelton Simmons is second overall in WAR (behind Altuve), and his offense is higher than his defense. He got no All-Star consideration and may get like a 7th place MVP vote. Heck, I’m not even mad, that’s amazing.
Keith Law: And is there any doubt that the value on his defense, which is the most common complaint about WAR, is valid? He’s the best defensive shortstop of the last 20 years. He might be the best *ever*. He should appear on a lot of MVP ballots, maybe all of them.

Brett: What is the scouting report on Thyago Vieria? Destined to be a reliever? Could he be a potential closer?
Keith Law: 80 fastball, up to 102, and a trash breaking ball every time I’ve seen him.

Wade: Now that Loria is out, who is the worst owner in baseball?
Keith Law: Angelos and the Wilpons can duke this one out.

Jon: Where would be the best place to find you at GenCon 50 on Saturday?
Keith Law: I’m speaking on two panels that day – one at 10 am, one at 1 pm – so right before or after those would be your best bet. The first one is in a room called Cabinet, the second Causus, but I don’t know yet where those are.

Mark: Have you ever played Magic: The Gathering? I ask because you’re such a big fan of board games and your ol’ running mate Longenhagen is an avowed fan.
Keith Law: I haven’t. In general I don’t do collectible card games.

Jung the philly fan.: Do you like any other young pitchers in Philly besides Nola?
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the only one who’s in their rotation when the team gets good. They have a lot of pitching depth in the system, though.
Keith Law: I saw Elniery Garcia last night – 88-93, mostly 89-91, flashed average CB and CH, just back from an 80-game suspension. Maxed out physically but definitely a prospect, looks like a starter but didn’t show the plus pitch last night.

Lance: Is Trout MVP worthy this year?
Keith Law: He is, but I don’t think he’ll end up more valuable than all of Sale, Altuve, and Judge.

Andrew: Is Posey the most successful mega contract over the past decade?
Keith Law: Define “Mega.” Longoria’s first deal was pretty absurd for the team. Sale and Quintana have been raging steals too.

Tim: Should the Cubs resign Arrieta? Looking like the stuff has returned recently.
Keith Law: Getting Q should allow them to let Arrieta walk.

Tim: Senzel looks about ready for the big leagues – would you move Suarez off 3B for him (given the season he’s having) or would you ask Senzel to learn 2B or OF to make him more versatile?
Keith Law: Senzel came so far to become an average defender at third that i would hesitate to move him again.

Adam: Cal Quantrill’s first season back from TJ has now reached the 100 innings mark. Hi-A and AA are two difficult levels to pitch at, and he’s been solid if not spectacular. Has a larger body of work affected your opinion on him as a prospect at all?
Keith Law: After I put him fairly high on my top 50, I got more feedback from within the industry that I should have had him a bit lower. Solid but not spectacular is a perfect description. I’d like to see if one more year off the surgery gives him any more stuff, especially on the breaking ball, but at this point it would be realistic to assume this is it and treat improvement as just one scenario.

Adam: Maybe I’m just being a brat, but has the Padres 2016 draft just been “meh” considering the quantity of picks and pool amount?
Keith Law: I think that is really premature. You’re talking about a lot of 19- and 18-year-olds already in full-season ball. Hudson Potts probably should have started in extended, for one example.

Tim: Do you think Chicago asked for Devers instead of Moncada or did they just like Moncada more?
Keith Law: Truly don’t know. Neither would surprise me.

Steve: There has been discussion that the Orioles’ lack of participation in the international draft is due to Angelos’ belief that the process is corrupt due to the predatory practices of buscones. Is there merit to this argument?
Keith Law: He’d be right that there is corruption in that market. They should still be participating in the July 2nd market. All he’s doing is putting his team at a needless disadvantage.

Nick: Yankees drafted Steven Sensley this year and ever since he has absolutely ripped the cover off of the ball. What do you see in him?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything about him offhand – 12th rounder out of UL-Lafayette, a young college senior who’ll turn 22 next month, that’s all I got – but I did want to point out that he has spent almost his whole summer in short-season ball, and he’s way too old for those levels (GCL and Appy). He’s now in low-A Charleston, which is at least close to appropriate, but with just 53 AB. He’s even a shade old for low-A, but if he rakes there, I’d take him much more seriously.

Chet: I know all prospects are different, but I’m skeptical to believe in any Astros 1B prospect because of Singleton and AJ Reed. But, should I believe that Yordan Alvarez is going to be good?
Keith Law: I think so. Think he’s got a plus hit tool, not sure what to think of the power.

HugoZ: If you’re a gm whose contract ends in say, 2019, do you much care about holding back a prospect like Acuna so that team control is through 2024 instead of 2023?
Keith Law: You might not – I’ve talked about moral hazard for GMs before, where you might sign a player to a long-term deal, knowing if it doesn’t work out, you’ll be fired way before you have to clean up the mess. But there’s also risk in promoting a top prospect too soon and having him flop out of the gate, which might color your boss’s opinion of you as a GM if you’ve been saying all year how good this kid was going to be.
Keith Law: OK, I think that makes up for the abbreviated chat earlier today. Sorry about the technical difficulties. I’ll be back next week for another chat. Hope to see you some of you at GenCon this weekend.

I’ll be in Chicago this weekend, speaking over lunch at the Standard Club (a ticketed event) and then signing books that evening at Volumes Book Cafe.

Keith Law: I’m on track, like a Long Island train. Klawchat.

Sean: With the Sonny Gray situation do you think the A’s should take the best offer now or wait until the offseason hoping a better market develops?
Keith Law: I don’t think they HAVE to take the best offer now; if they feel like they’re not getting sufficient return, they can and should wait. But I think they will get an offer they like.

Dodgers catchers: Do you like Keibert Ruiz or Will Smith more? Do you think both make it as catchers?
Keith Law: Ruiz has a lot more offensive upside than Smith, but lower probability. Smith is more advanced on defense right now; I think Ruiz is more bat-first.

Jack: JP Crawford has gotta be a september callup this year right?
Keith Law: Depends. A month ago, he hadn’t done anything to justify a callup. If he keeps hitting AND playing hard AND shows better defense, then yes.

Noah: Is Turang your early favorite to go 1-1 next year?
Keith Law: He’s a possible candidate for 1-1, not an early favorite. Don’t think there is a favorite in this class.

International: One thing that’s always intrigued be is that despite the fact that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are the same island we see so few players come from Haiti, do you have any insight into why that is? Are they truly that different from a socioeconomic standpoint?
Keith Law: Same island, different countries, cultures, and languages. They play baseball as kids in the DR everywhere on the island, but don’t in Haiti. Players with Haitian ancestry have all grown up in the DR (I think).

brian snitker: is Dansby’s demotion too early or too late?
Keith Law: It is short-sighted and unnecessary. When you’re building, you don’t demote your long-term shortstop in favor of short-term assets (Phillips, Adams) or flashes in the pan (Camargo). It’s really out of character for Atlanta, who’ve done almost everything for the long term.

Nick: What’re your thoughts on the Neshek trade?
Keith Law: Phillies got three useful pieces, none elite prospects, nobody in the Rockies’ top 15 or so. Requena is the most intriguing because it sounds like he can stay a starter and he’s pitched well in a horrible home environment (Asheville). Hammer is a one-pitch reliever with a high spin rate on the FB. Gomez is probably a good utility infielder; if he got on base more, I’d like him as a potential regular at 2b.

Nick: As a Phillies fan, I’m really frustrated by managements commitment to Tommy Joseph. Why won’t they just bench him and play Hoskins???
Keith Law: I think they were hoping they’d get something for Joseph in trade. That seems unlikely now.

Ed: What do you do to keep your knives sharp? Steel, steel + something else, send them out every once in a while.
Keith Law: I have a small knife sharpener recommended by Michael Ruhlman (et al) that I use maybe twice a year.

Johnny Lee: In your opinion, what Blue jays should do before this 7/31?
Keith Law: Sell anyone unlikely to be part of the 2019 Jays. Wouldn’t sell Stroman, which I’ve seen suggested on the interwebs, in what appears to be a buyer’s market.

Jon: Giolito with another strong outing, of course on the heels of a few lesser ones. How much longer until we see him in the CHW rotation in a lost year?
Keith Law: I expect he’ll be up in September. Reports I’ve gotten have generally been positive on the stuff but varied start to start on his delivery. I would love to see him in the majors working with Don Cooper regularly, once they feel like they can trust his delivery enough that he’ll come up and be around the zone.

Sour beer: Yadier Alvarez or Mitch White?
Keith Law: Alvarez by a small and decreasing margin.

David: Duane Underwood Jr has the lively arm and athleticism, but has never put it together. Do you try him as a reliever or let him continue to eat up a 40 man spot and try and make it happen as a starter?
Keith Law: I’d try him as a reliever, with the possibility of returning him to the rotation one day if he ever fulfills his physical projection. But you’re right – it’s not happening yet.

Justen: Pirates had a triple SS promotion last week with Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker and Stephen Alemais all moving up a level. Know you’ve been bullish on Newman and he seems to be hitting better of late. Do they have anything with the other two guys?
Keith Law: I like Tucker – missed a year with shoulder surgery, bit slow coming back, great kid, very good athlete, still young for AA and probably spends most of 2018 there.

Terrence (Atlanta): KLaw, what’s the report on this kid Flexen starting for the Mets tonight?
Keith Law: I had a note on him here: http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0681316008736069655-4

Toby: Josh Naylor seems to be acclimateing well to AA, has he put his maturity issues behind him?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything about that, but his body is getting somewhat worse. I think he’s going to have to work to avoid becoming a DH.

Bob: How excited should we be in Padre-land about Michel Baez and Adrian Morejon? Which are you higher on?
Keith Law: Morejon is a 3-pitch guy right now, and LH, but Baez has size and hasn’t had Morejon’s injury scare this year. I prefer Morejon.

James : In April you wrote that Amed Rosario has “so much bat speed and strength … that he should eventually hit 15-20 homers.” Assuming he ever gets called up, is that still your expectation for him? Which young SS is he most comparable to (Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, Seager)?
Keith Law: Yes, I think he’ll peak in that power range. I don’t like player comps; he’s his own guy.

Kyle KS: Is Bader a CF long term or destined for a corner? I thought it was odd that he was starting there over Pham who has performed well in CF in a small sample.
Keith Law: Bader looks much better than expected in CF, but I think the standard for CF defense is so high right now that he’ll eventually end up bumped by someone better (like Sierra).

Greg: Hey Keith, I was wondering what your general outlook was on the Pirates’ current state. On one hand, they have a good, young, controllable core in place (Polanco, Marte, Bell, Taillon, Rivero, etc). On the other hand, they still seem to be a few pieces away from being legitimate contenders. If you were Neal Huntington, would you aggressively pursue trades for Cole/McCutchen/Harrison now or in the winter, or would you stay the course, hope for better luck and try to win within next 2 years? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would aggressively pursue trades for those guys, targeting players in or near to the majors rather than more total talent that’s further away. I don’t think they need to consider a total rebuild.

Jesse: Who is the greatest prospect you have ever seen in person that did not make it in the majors?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone like a Brien Taylor, who is pretty clearly the biggest prospect ‘bust’ of all time – he was as good a pitching prospect as scouts of that generation had seen, and of course was derailed by an injury suffered in a bar fight (and I think is now in jail?). I saw Wade Townsend once as an amateur and his shit was ridiculous, but we know what happened there. Delmon Young was a pretty big disappointment too, but, in hindsight, I think his advantage was that he was so physically mature at 18.
Keith Law: Sorry, that answer required a little research.

addoeh: Baseball seems to be slowly turning into a situation where most at bats end with either a HR, K, or BB. It was frustrating trying to watch Tuesday’s Cubs-White Sox game because of it (even with Hawk Harrelson getting angry). Is there a solution?
Keith Law: I think it’s a problem, and I would say raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Randy: Walker Buehler rebounded nicely last night, first game just a fluke? Should the Dodgers bring him up for help out of the pen in the playoffs?
Keith Law: I believe that is their plan. I wasn’t at either game; I assume the first outing (where he couldn’t retire a batter) was a fluke.

Twflan: To what do you attribute to Kris Bryant’s relative inability to hit well with RISP this year? I know RBI’s are a silly stat these days and very situational based on your teammates getting on base, but KB has not done as well as expected in those situations…
Keith Law: Typical random fluctuation. Player performance is not uniform.

Collin Jones: The returns for the early trades have been quite underwhelming? Is that a sense of what the market is this year, or am I undervaluing the prospects involved?
Keith Law: Multiple execs have told me it’s a buyer’s market, so the returns are all coming back light.

Rachel Failla: Do you think, in our lifetimes, we’ll see a trans professional baseball player? It seems we’ve just started making progress into openly gay athletes in pro. sports, but Trump’s comments yesterday frighten me into believing trans tolerance/understanding isn’t being improved, rather taking a step backwards.
Keith Law: I think we’ll see an openly gay player in the next five years. I don’t know about a trans player, primarily because I think societal acceptance of transgender rights (or transgenderism as an inborn condition, rather than a mental illness) is so far behind acceptance even of gay & lesbian rights.

Adam: Kumar Rocker or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: No idea. It’s way too early for that.

Adam: I’m not sure if I missed it, but did you do a writeup on the Royals, Padres trade? Or were there not enough prospects involved for your coverage?
Keith Law: Not significant enough of a trade. Couple of spare parts for the Royals, future starter for the Padres (Strahm) and a nice lottery-ticket bat with a good swing (Ruiz).

Nate: Keith, is there a non-zero chance Casey Gillaspie turns into an average major leaguer?
Keith Law: Non-zero, but low, under 20%. I thought he was a 2nd/3rd round talent in the draft – below average athlete, first base only, strong kid but didn’t use his legs at all in his swing, making the power suspect.

Jay: Over the past few weeks Cornelius Randolph has brought his line up to .255/.350, with a little more power. (10 HR Now) I know he’s stuck in a corner OF spot, do you believe he might be throwing off the title of “failed prospect”?
Keith Law: I dislike using the past tense on a player who hasn’t clearly ‘failed,’ either through release or many years of non-performance. You could call Randolph a failing prospect, or a disappointing prospect. I don’t think anything he’s done the last few weeks changes the outlook for him; the last two scouts I asked about him came back with similarly negative views, a position-less guy without the elite hit and/or power tools he’d need. (I do or at least did like his swing last year. Really surprised he hasn’t at least hit for some average.)

@RationalMLBfan: Just read Smart Baseball very thoroughly–good book! Questions about Stolen Bases chapter. (1) Is there a database that separates out normal caught stealing with hit-and-run? (2) From a sabermetrics perspective, is the hit-and-run play a good play or does it put artificial pressure on the hitter to make contact (and possibly reduce the quality of batted ball contact), which negates any benefit of distorting the defense moving to cover the SB attempt?
Keith Law: I don’t think so on 1, because someone would have to identify those manually (subjectively) and code them as such. That means any answer to 2 won’t be derived from data, but I know Earl Weaver, among others, disdained the hit-and-run for the reason you cited – you’re forcing a swing on the hitter rather than leaving swing/no-swing decision to him to make based on the pitch.

ECinDC: Erick Fedde is getting called up to start for an injured Stras. What can we expect?
Keith Law: I think he’s more likely a reliever in the long run. Everything he throws is hard, so there’s a fringy changeup and he’s had trouble separating the breaking balls. It’s reliever feel.

Lee D, LA: Keith, two weeks ago you answered my question about “upgrading Chris Taylor” by suggesting they replace him with Verdugo. Taylor is now at .320/.388/.541 in almost 300 ABs, and only 26 years old. Still think this is a SSS phenomenon?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. His BABIP is .427. That would be the third-best BABIP for a hitter who qualified for the batting title in MLB history, behind Ty Cobb in 1911 and Joe Jackson in … oh, 1911, there you go. (In fact, no one has topped .410 since 1924, but Taylor and Ben Gamel are both over that mark right now.

Brian: What is Ronald Guzman’s ceiling in your opinion? Everyday regular?
Keith Law: Ceiling is above-average regular. Feel pretty good about him being an everyday guy.

Mac: Hi Keith. How do you justify eating meat to aggressive vegans? I never feel like my responses counter their concerns about animals. I’m not changing, but I’d just love to have a good argument. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t. I don’t think I need to justify my food choices to anyone but myself – and arguing meat-eating with “aggressive vegans” would be like talking religion to an atheist or atheism to a devout person. It’s just not worth the time.

Frankur: When you went to the SFG game with google, were the google employees fighting each other to see who would get to sit next to you?
Keith Law: They rotated seats. It was all quite civil. Now, if they’d been Bing people, that might have been a different story.

Mark: What is wrong with Steven Matz? Traditional numbers and peripherals are both terrible.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s fully healthy. That’s been his story his entire pro career, unfortunately.

TJ: Is there something to this idea that Chance Adams can’t make it through the batting order three times? He’s had success at every level.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that about him. He’s pretty good, better than I had him coming out of last year. What I get back on him that’s negative is generally about his height and lack of FB plane – but he’s a Yankee, so he’ll come up and throw a ton of offspeed stuff, mitigating any concerns (if they’re real) about the FB.

Dorn: You’re obviously down on Austin Meadows, but lets assume he comes back and finishes the year strong and healthy. Does that put him back to where you had him preseason?
Keith Law: I’m not down on him; he’s been hurt on and off this year and hasn’t performed at all. Everyone (team sources) who saw my top 50 before I published it indicated he didn’t belong.

Brett: Atlanta promoted Luiz Gohara to AAA today. Are you a fan of the move? What do you think his ceiling could be?
Keith Law: #2 starter. I guess you could argue it’s ace stuff and size but he’s never indicated that he’ll have that kind of command/control.

Nate: Thoughts on Jordan Luplow?
Keith Law: Good kid with some power and a bit of length to his swing.

James: Matt Strahm – starter or reliever for the Friars?
Keith Law: Starter once he’s healthy again. He’ll be in the ideal ballpark for developing as a starter.

Joe: Keith, it is unrealistic for the Orioles to land a Chapman/Miller package for Britton?
Keith Law: If they put him out there they should demand a package like that.

Manu: Is it possible to see Acuña in ATL this year?
Keith Law: I bet he and Gohara come up in September.

JR: Conforto on pace to hit 30 HRs (and that is with a stint on the DL and the Mets dinking around with his playing time early season). Would you be surprised if he had some 40 HR seasons (assuming he gets his name in the lineup almost every day)?
Keith Law: I would definitely be surprised – and I’ve always been a Conforto guy. Thought he’d hit .300/.400 AVG/OBP but didn’t foresee 30+ HR power.

David: Who is the worst prospect you have seen that became a star in the majors?
Keith Law: I don’t think anyone who’s been a ‘terrible’ prospect has been a star; I can think of guys I didn’t rate highly who became stars, and guys like Kinsler (whom I never saw as a prospect) who were late picks and always old for the levels but turned into stars.

Peet: So how does next year’s draft class compare to others, overall? Thanks!
Keith Law: It looks stronger, especially on the HS side.

David: Did you expect Hunter Renfroe to look this bad in the majors? Is he really just Jeff Francouer without the speed and defense?
Keith Law: He has always had two issues – bat speed is just fair, and he does not see breaking stuff well. So I’m not shocked at the struggles. I’m more shocked by Margot’s numbers.
Keith Law: Sorry, just found out a cousin of mine passed away yesterday, in her 70s I think – very sweet person who helped me reconnect with a branch of the family we’d lost contact with years ago. What a bummer.

Mike: Are the Orioles *trying to injure DylanBundy?
Keith Law: I have not liked or understood their handling of him going back to last spring. They knew he had calcification in his shoulder, they knew his injury history, and the moment he started hitting 95 in relief, they put him back in the rotation and had him going 100 pitches an outing – and did it again this year. It’s a shame. He would be on my very short list of the best HS pitchers I’ve ever seen live.

Otto: Who do you like better for the next 10 years. Manuel Margot or Andrew Benitendi? Thanks
Keith Law: Benintendi.

Mark: Blake Rutherford – second division regular or 4th OF?
Keith Law: I’m not willing to downgrade him that much just yet. It’s not the year we expected from him, but the swing is still really good and he has a solid approach.

Jay: Given Bo Bichette’s numbers, have we ever seen a prospect ever come in and hold batting averages as high as he has since being drafted?
Keith Law: I’m sure we have. Look at what his brother did that first summer. Kinsler hit like .420 or so in low-A.

Tim F: Can you critique Paul DeJong of the Cards – is his current play an outlier or can he be a solid professional shortstop? Thanks.
Keith Law: Of course his current play is an outlier (2% walk rate, 31% K rate, .300+ ISO) – but he’s definitely a big leaguer of some sort, maybe not an everyday shortstop but either a regular at 2b/3b or a multi-position regular.

John: If you had to hitch your horse to a tall Yankee pitching prospect — is Domingo Acevedo or Frecier Perez the guy to bet on?
Keith Law: Perez. Acevedo’s delivery is really rough. He can’t repeat it.

Zirinsky: Keith: What’s going on with Mateo? SSS or did the (undeserved) promotion cause something to click?
Keith Law: He looked pretty good the other day – bat speed was good, hit that HR I tweeted about, made one really great play at short, then didn’t run out a grounder and half-assed a throw on a routine play that the 1b had to scoop. I do not know this firsthand, but I have a feeling he was moping in high-A and started to play harder after the promotion. The player I saw on Wednesday should not have hit .240/.280/.whatever in high-A.

Carlin: Been reading rumors about the A’s coveting a CF prospect for Gray and scouting Florial heavily. Even speaking as a Yankees fan, isn’t Florial a really underwhelming centerpiece for the a top-of-the-roto guy?
Keith Law: He should be the second piece, not the first. 30% K rate and just generally raw. He’s like a Cameron Maybin sort of prospect – enormous upside due to his physical gifts, but a long way to go as a player.

HugoZ: Why should we be so exercised about Swanson’s demotion if he’s likely to be brought back on Sept. 1?
Keith Law: Because of the philosophy behind it – it seems to be entirely driven by recency bias and an emphasis on winning, what, one or two extra games this year?

Gene Mullett: Have you ever been really excited to try a restaurant or something by a celebrity chef & been disappointed? Care to share?
Keith Law: Spotted Pig in NYC. I have her cookbook and liked a few recipes from it. Meal was disappointing start to finish.

Keith Law: I’m throwing a post-chat bonus answer here, because I saw a few tweets asking about this but didn’t see a question in the chat queue (I never even get to see them all because you guys ask so many, and thanks for that). People are asking if I think Luis Severino is a starter now, because he’s having an amazing season as a starter. My concern on him was always delivery-related; pitchers who don’t rely on their lower halves tend to break down and/or have trouble with command. Severino’s delivery was all arm – like Reynaldo Lopez’s, like JB Bukauskas’s, two other guys with starter stuff and track records but reliever-ish mechanics. Severino is bigger now, and throwing a ton of sliders, a pitch that is much better than it was when I saw him as a prospect (and better than I projected it to become). So yes, he’s a damn good starter right now, even though I don’t know if he’s changed the way he uses his legs at all. I hope he is using his lower half more so that he can pitch like this for a long time.

Keith Law: Gotta wrap this up for a phone call – sorry to cut it a bit short this week. I will be in Bristol on Monday for our BBTN trade deadline show that afternoon, and will probably not chat now for two weeks. Thank you as always for all of your questions. I hope to meet many of you this weekend in Chicago!

My latest boardgame review for Paste covers the asymmetrical game Not Alone, where one player faces off against up to six opponents in an alien-themed game where the team of players is hunted by an unknown Creature.

Keith Law: Two steps forward, six steps back. Klawchat.

Jeremy: If Michel Baez performs in High-A as as well as in Low-A, do we start taking him seriously?
Keith Law: It’ll really depend more on the secondary stuff than on performance.

Preston: What’s a realistic return for the Cubs if Candelario is the lead to a package of prospects? Certainly not high-impact RP like Britton, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I’ve always been a little bearish on his defense. He can hit though.

Erix: Hey Keith. Last week you mentioned Connor Greene as a fringe top 50 prospect. I’m curious as to what the reports on him are. Scouting the stat line (I know) shows little swing and miss, and too many walks (but an elite groundball rate). Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s been up to 98 pretty regularly and will at least flash above-average secondary stuff. Still not fully filled out physically either.

Lance: First time, long time. Can you explain Justin Smoak? How has he turned in to what you thought he’d be after being terrible for so long? Is it sustainable?
Keith Law: The explanations I’ve heard – e.g., that he’s finally feeling like he can be himself as a hitter, rather than trying to prove his worth or justify a lineup spot every day – are not terribly satisfying. So, no, I can’t.

john w: What’s a realistic timetable for Mejia to contribute in the next year and a half-ish? And what’s a reasonable expectation if he’s included in a deal? Not asking for names necessarily, just wondering what Cleveland’s options realistically are.
Keith Law: I’d demand a Quintana-level return. Mejia is certainly comparable to Eloy as a prospect, and you could argue he’s more value as a trade asset right now because he’s closer to the majors. If you believe Mejia will become even an average receiver/framer, then he might be the #1 prospect in the minors.

Drew: What is your future projection for Jamie Barria? Guy is looking pretty good so far.
Keith Law: Starter stuff, reliever delivery & command.

David S: Are you familiar with the band Ghost? If so, what do you think? I saw them open for Maiden and found them quite interesting in a good way.
Keith Law: I like their music quite a bit, but the whole Satan-worship gimmick is puerile.

Kevin: There seem to be more wide-ranging views on the Phillies rebuild than any other club. This likely stems from the fact they have very good depth (and upside, i.e. Sixto), but lack the “can’t-miss” top prospects other clubs have. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you they could compete by 2019-2020?
Keith Law: I agree with your assessment of their system, but I don’t think they’re contending in 2019 unless they add significant talent from outside the organization – like signing a major free agent to supplement what they already have.

Benjamin: Thoughts on twins prospect Ricky De La Torre?
Keith Law: Ricardo? I’d refer you back to my reports on him before and right after the draft.

Jake: Do the Cubs have the pieces necessary to acquire Gray, Darvish or Verlander?
Keith Law: I would not think so.

Tom (NYC): Hi, love the chat, and thanks for answering the question. Assuming Smith and Rosario graduate this year, what is your opinion of the NYM minor league system going forward? Also, relative to your last offseason ranking, are there any guys notably rising or falling in their minor league ranks?
Keith Law: It’ll be thinner without those guys – I don’t think they’ve drafted or signed players of quite that caliber the last two years – but I still am fairly bullish on guys like Szapucki (as long as he’s healthy), Alonso, Gimenez, even Dunn, who is still just 21 years old.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! Was wondering about the inactivity of the Padres in the trade market thus far. Have you heard anything from your sources that teams are shunning San Diego, or are they truly just holding out for a big return?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard of anyone “shunning” a team with players to trade.

Nick: Beltre for Devers. Who says no?
Keith Law: Both.

Dave53: Thanks for doing the talk in Berkeley two nights ago. (You and I spoke about Dillon Maples.) Food question: Two friends and I will soon take our ninth annual minor league baseball trip. This year, we’ll be in your area, with stops in Bowie, Aberdeen, Frederick, Hagerstown, and on up to Scranton. Our daily pattern is a hearty breakfast, followed by beer and bar food for the rest of the day. I couldn’t find anything on your website, but do you have any breakfast recommendations along our route?
Keith Law: I know Michael Voltaggio has a place or two in Frederick, but otherwise, I’d suggest you veer off into the larger cities you’re passing like Baltimore and Philly.

Nick: Seems like this Adzolay has really picked it up this year. Think he’s a top 100 type, and where do you see his ceiling?
Keith Law: Had I continued past ranking 50 names, he would have been in the next ten.

JR: I know you consider the Tim Tebow “expirament” a publicity stunt (and I totally agreed with that take); but have you been surprised he has done this well? I pretty much thought he would just wash out. It was interesting to hear that he was consciously being an opposite field hitter. I figured that was probably because he just lacks bat speed… but it also could indicate a player who can adapt and play within himself. I’ve got the feeling now that, unless he quits, he will eventually get a September call up. Probably for t-shirt sales of course but still, way better than I ever expected.
Keith Law: He does lack bat speed, or any other useful tool except pull power. If they call him up, it’s an insult to every other player in the minors. Bill Veeck is dead. Let’s leave the marketing stunts in the cemetery too.

Biscuit: Would the Nats ever consider calling the Angels and offering a deal centered around Trout and Turner? No timetable yet for Turner, but hard to envision him helping a ton again this year, especially with wrist injuries tending to linger. Maybe Nats ask for Simmons back as well, and send a few prospects back to the Angels.
Keith Law: Every week, I get questions about the Angels trading Trout, and the answer is always the same: The owner has made it clear he’s not trading him. Fin.

The Bilmo: Kershaw or Koufax?
Keith Law: Kershaw.

BJ: Fair to say Javier Guerra is a bust. Heard reports that he can’t hit breaking balls. Numbers don’t lie .226 20 BB 100 K
Keith Law: He’s had a very significant health issue the last year-plus. If you feel good calling him a “bust” for that, be my guest.

Nick: Andrew Pullin – Why does he continue to get no love? Not a Phillies fan by any means, but love what he’s done the last 2 seasons at each stop. Thought he’d sneak on to at least 1 top 100 sheet, since he should be getting a call up this fall (or risk being lost…).
Keith Law: He’s a corner outfielder without exceptional power, patience, or defensive ability. There’s no way he’d be a top 100 guy. Also, I think you’re confusing the rules – protecting a player from the rule 5 draft merely means putting him on the 40-man, not calling him up.

Anthony: After trading Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Frazier and the relievers, how do you feel the entirety of this last year for the White Sox? It seems to me that they are handling this rebuild as well as they could and have made solid trades all around. Over under on prospects they received becoming everyday regulars? 5.5?
Keith Law: I think they’ve done exceptionally well so far.

Levitator: Dunkirk is getting rave reviews, do you plan to go see it in the theatre?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Steven: Tyler O’Neill seems to be adjusting –
at least from a performance view –
to AAA with wRC+ by month: 52, 84, 121, 179. Can he be an impact bat for the Mariners in 2018+?
Keith Law: Well, now he certainly won’t be. I also don’t like using month to month splits like that as evidence of anything but random variation.

Levitator: The Jam-band Phish is playing 13 consecutive concerts at Madison Square Garden (with a day off after every three shows). Have you ever seen a jam band live before and allowed yourself to relax and enjoy the unstructured flow a la jazz?
Keith Law: Boring AF.

Steven: He’s years away, but is Taylor Trammell a GUY?
Keith Law: Not yet. The pro reports I’ve gotten on him so far have been a touch disappointing – I expected raves about the athleticism, but everyone I’ve asked has called him just a good athlete but not an exceptional one. I haven’t seen him since before he signed, so I don’t know if he’s really lost something or if everyone just overrated him on draft day.

Adam: Okay, so we know your opinion on the alternate flavor Oreos, but what is your stance on regular vs Double Stuf?
Keith Law: Regular all the way. Double Stuff is double wrong.

Young Hoss Radbourn: Hello Klaw. If you’re Brian Cashman, are you better off staying the course and putting Chance Adams in the rotation? Or do you give up a package of Mateo/Acevedo, etc for Sonny Gray and let Adams continue to work on his 3rd pitch in Scranton?
Keith Law: If Mateo + Acevedo gets you Sonny Gray, you do it before Beane comes to his senses. (But I’d call Adams up.)

Chris: If you’re Jeff Luhnow, what is a realistic package of players you’re willing to give up for Sonny Gray?
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason why they need to acquire Gray, at least not at the likely cost. I wouldn’t give up Tucker for him, but the A’s would probably insist on that. I don’t think Martes is a sure thing, though, so if he could headline such a deal I’d consider it. Martes has a great arm but I’m not sure he’s ever going to have enough fastball command to be that kind of starter.

John: How often do you go back and re-read a book? I read many of the “classics” back in my teens and 20s, but now I don’t remember much more than the basic storylines (and I suspect that my younger self would have missed important aspects of the writing). I’m tempted to reread them, but I feel like that would come at the expense of books I haven’t read yet.
Keith Law: I think I’ve probably read fewer than a half-dozen novels twice – outside of Harry Potter, which I read once myself and again all the way through to my daughter. Off the top of my head: Master & Margarita, Great Gatsby, Pride & Prejudice, The Eyre Affair. I’ve also re-read one Agatha Christie novel and one PG Wodehouse novel twice, both because I hadn’t realized I’d already read them until I was halfway through.

Minnie: Heard Rutherford may have been working to cut his swing down to make it quicker, but sacrificing power for now. Does any of that jive with what you saw?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t. That sounds like a post hoc rationalization to me.

Sean: Keith, thanks for chatting as always. JP Crawford has really been hitting well in July, hitting for power, getting on base a lot – this seems a lot more like what was expected. Any chance he’s “back”, or was the words you heard from scouts so negative that you’d be surprised to see this kind of performance continue moving forward?
Keith Law: It’s just a handful of games, not enough to believe it’s all changed. And it doesn’t address why everyone I asked said his defense was just average or below, after it was consistently above-average to plus in the past.

Nick: Ok, so you’re Sandy Alderson. For whatever reason you didn’t call up Amed Rosario earlier this year after the super 2 date, and somehow still haven’t. Am I nuts to think that at this point just wait until next year super 2 date, or would 3 months of big league experience be worth losing that extra year of control on the back end?
Keith Law: If you want players to develop, you call them up when they’re ready. Returning Rosario to AAA would not accomplish anything.

Ben: Reaction to T. O’Neill for M. Gonzales trade?
Keith Law: I’ll file something on this later today.

toddfather: How do you deal with sunburn prevention/care? You must have gotten some insane sun burns scouting the Arizona League in the middle of July
Keith Law: AZL games are at night.

TK: How much trouble is our Republic in if Trump starts handing out pardons left and right, fires Mueller and not a single person in the GOP stands up to him?
Keith Law: I would consider this – including Trump pardoning himself or family members – a de facto coup d’etat.

CD: I know they’re the best team in the league right now, I just get the feeling the Dodgers are going to make a play for Sonny. The FO have history, they know the players inside and out, they did a big deal last year. Is Verdugo/Buehler too rich for your blood, or should Oak shoot lower, like Calhoun/White?
Keith Law: Oakland should ask for Verdugo and Buehler – whose outing last night would scare the hell out of me, because it’s the kind of thing that happens when a pitcher is hurt – but expect to only get one of them, if a deal happens at all.

Ed: I had some sticker shock after the Quintana trade, and while I am feeling better about it (Q’s first start helped!) I’m still disappointed to see Cease go given the Cubs inability to develop pitching. Where did you have Cease fitting in with the pitchers in the Cubs’ latest draft? 3rd behind Little and Lange?
Keith Law: Cease > Lange. I don’t think Lange is a starter in the long run.

steve: Keith: The Red Sox have done a terrible job with Swihart. (C to LF, now 3b), does he have value left?
Keith Law: If he hits like he used to/is expected to, he can be a good value overall at 3b – he played it some in HS, even played some short, and was athletic enough to be good there.

Josh: Frequently sports media personalities expound about players increasing/decreasing their value at the trade deadline by having a really good/bad start the week before; e.g., Jaime Garcia. Just finished Smart Baseball this week and I have to assume actual front offices don’t put any stock in this beyond potential injury concerns from a bad start, right?
Keith Law: Right. So with Buehler last night, it’s not that he had a bad line, but that a guy with his stuff failing to record a single out and walking 3/5 guys is a concern that something is physically wrong with him.

Ed: Now that we’re through a good portion of the season, what are your thoughts on Heyward’s new swing? While his numbers aren’t spectacular, they’re better than last year. Just season to season noise or do you think the swing helped?
Keith Law: I’m guessing season to season noise, but really couldn’t say that for sure. It’s a small enough improvement that it could be random chance but I don’t know how we’d be certain that it’s not.

Moltar: Big bummer about Szapucki. Since he won’t be back until 2019 realistically, how does this affect his ceiling?
Keith Law: TJ doesn’t affect a player’s ceiling, unless he’s in the 15% or so who don’t get their stuff back, but it affects both his probability and his timetable. So we’ll see in April or so where his stuff is, if he’s on track and seems to have his fastball back, but I’d drop him in any rankings as I’ve always done with guys who just had TJ and aren’t back yet.

Bill: Heard a commentator say that Quintana slots in as the Cubs ace ahead of Lester next year. I realize in terms of teams with an embarrassment of riches that you can have two #1’s but wanted your opinion of whether Quintana is truly ahead of Lester.
Keith Law: He is, and it’s not close.

Marshall MN: Rooker got moved up to High A ball for the Twins, I know this is something that you said should be expected given his age, but nonetheless it is nice to see a rookie position player performing at such a level so quickly for the Twins.
Keith Law: He’s still too old for high-A, but at least he’s at a level where he’s closer in age to the pitching he’s facing.

Ben: What do you think of Jake Rogers? I know he was considered a great defensive catcher already, but he’s really hit this year (as a 22-year old in A and A+).
Keith Law: Absolutely terrible when I saw him.

Rick: Yaisel Sierra didn’t pan out as a starter but seems to be pretty good RP, could he help the Dodgers bullpen this year and into the playoffs?
Keith Law: He’s off the 40-man so I don’t know if they’ll rush him up the ladder for this year, but I do think he has future value as a quality reliever. They were smart to sneak him off the 40 when he was struggling.

Moltar: With Szapucki down, any other names to watch among Mets arms? I love the numbers being put up by Flexen and Crismatt but have no way of knowing their value without asking nice people like you.
Keith Law: Neither has his potential. They’re suddenly short on arms.

Michael: Hi Klaw – If you were Scott Proefrock would you bring up Hoskins now? What would you do with Joseph assuming there is no market for him? Just let him sit?
Keith Law: If I were Matt Klentak, I’d wonder what you were talking about.

Zach Otto: Good Afternoon, what do you see as Alex Verdugo’s power ceiling? Picked him up in my fantasy minor league draft two years ago due to your rankings.
Keith Law: Average power, 15-20 range. Think he’s more of a well-rounded hitter with doubles power than a 30-HR type.

David: Is Jen-ho Tseng a realistic back of rotation piece in a year or 2 or just an org guy?
Keith Law: Back of the rotation possibility, bullpen likely, much more than an org guy.

Ben: As an A’s fan, is it purely wishful thinking that Sonny Gray could get Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitely in return?
Keith Law: I think that’d be insane.

Jake: Hey Keith! A buddy and I are spending a long weekend in Nashville, any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Use the search box above – I have several posts on Nashville food.

Carl: How much value do you put in the Statcast stats? For instance, they have their own xBA (expected batting average) based on quality of contact, which right now says Jose Altuve should be hitting .268 instead of .353.
Keith Law: We have under three years of Statcast data. I’m not sure how we could even argue we have enough to create an x-anything stat off it.

Common Dolphin/Rehoboth Beach: Will the Orioles surprise everyone and trade Machado at the deadline, or during the offseason
Keith Law: I think they’ll surprise no one and keep him, which will be a wasted opportunity for the franchise.

Justin: With Raul Mondesi finally having some minor league success (.316/.346/.544) in AAA Omaha, how would you rank him were he still able to qualify as a prospect considering he’s still only 21?
Keith Law: I don’t rank guys who’ve played that much in the majors, ever. I don’t even like to hypothetically rank them, because we have information on them that we don’t have on players who still have their eligibility. (I’d always prefer to see players who care close to the cutoffs graduate, rather than facing the same information gap repeatedly every winter.)

Daniel: It certainly seems ESPN has no interest in getting back to a Klaw podcast, but have you ever considering doing it independently? No sports then, but food, games, politics, etc. It’d be a time commitment for sure, but Bomani Jones’ show seems to do pretty well.
Keith Law: Given the time commitment, I’d need someone else to produce & otherwise handle it.

Arin, D-town: Robert Stephenson is starting this weekend, what is he long-term? relief pitcher, 4th or 5th starter, or something else?
Keith Law: That stuff should pitch in the top few spots in a rotation, but he’s basically had 35 command for a year-plus now. Between AAA and the majors, he’s allowed 15 homers in 65 innings. Jim Acker is applauding his efforts.

John: Your notes on Sixto seemed to highlight how raw he is. How more unrefined is he compared to the average 18/19 year old pitching prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s less refined than the average prospect that age – that would be unfair to him. He’s pitching in low-A at an age where many pitchers are still in high school, and most are in short-season. That he can have success there, even on this extremely restricted regimen, is in his favor. And he’s not unrefined in the sense of a guy with a crude delivery or no idea where the plate is.

Chuck: Did you do a family oriented board game list? I have a 10 & 7 year old. 10 year old can handle 7 wonders but not Catan. 7 year old just plays what she can in 7 wonders no strategy. PS love the chats.
Keith Law: I haven’t done that breakdown but I add complexity scores to every game I rank each November, which you can use as a proxy for this.

Schlitz : Mitchell White or Dennis Santana?
Keith Law: White.

Daniel: You mentioned in the last chat wanting to tie free agency to age rather than years of control. Would that deter teams from selecting college players in favor of high-schoolers? Or are the benefits so far down the road that it would come out in the wash?
Keith Law: The college players get there faster, so it would wash out.

PhillyJake: How hard were the Pirates shopping Cutch this past offseason? Seems the only real suitors were the Nats and what NH was asking for was ridiculous. Or was it more the Nats asking about Cutch and NH seeing if he could get more than Cutch was worth?
Keith Law: I am not sure how to answer that precisely, but I can say he was definitely available this winter. I know Pittsburgh approached at least some specific teams.

Marshall MN: Do you think there’s any truth to the rumors that the Marlins want to get rid of Stanton? Shouldn’t a well-to-do franchise (are any outside Oakland NOT well-to-do) take a serious look at trading for if the Marlins are seriously looking at it like a salary dump?
Keith Law: Stanton’s is one of the worst contracts in baseball from the team’s perspective. They should be looking to trade him.

John: There was a Joel Sherman report suggesting that Blake Rutherford wouldn’t hit for power nor stick in CF. Legitimate concerns, or spin from the team giving away a prospect?
Keith Law: There is no chance Rutherford sticks in CF. I have no idea how anyone got the idea that he would. Just watch him play.

CVD: Besides the Doolittle and Madson additions, do you think the Nats will do anything else to address the bullpen?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do anything else.

Angelo: Mitchell White was recently promoted to AA, any concerns with him thus far other than missing innings with the toe injury?
Keith Law: Nope.

michael: Kris Bryant is kinda soft, right?
Keith Law: Don’t know. I’ve never touched him.

Patrick: You ever use an Aeropress? I think its changed my life. I used to make coffee daily with a French Press.
Keith Law: I haven’t. I use a V60 for drip, and I have an espresso machine that I use most days.

j : Have you heard any good reports on Jorge Mateo lately? Lot of extra-base hits so far in his stay with Trenton. I know, it’s only been a few weeks there
Keith Law: I have not; I’ll go see them again soon. And I’d ask this: If this is somehow the “real” Mateo, which I doubt, was he just being lazy in Tampa? Not trying? Sulking?

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: It’s known that Sixto needs to work on his breaking ball. What do you think he needs to do physically or mechanically in order to do so?
Keith Law: Nothing. I wouldn’t change the delivery.
Keith Law: And he’s not going to get much bigger (nor should he try to).

Matt: Keith, you seem largely unconcerned about Kopech’s control issues over the last couple of years despite a sky-high walk rate. What do you see in him that makes you think he’s more likely to resolve the issue than other guys with similar control problems?
Keith Law: Plus athlete with a delivery that should eventually allow it.

Josh: It was great having you in Harrisburg last weekend, thanks again! I know your reports on Meadows are down. Does he have any trade value? Wondering if the Bucs could package him and stuff for someone like Gray.
Keith Law: Trade value would be very low between injury and non-performance in AAA.

John: Keith–as someone who doesn’t seem afraid to take on anyone on Twitter and sifts through a lot of garbage–I have a dilemma. I’m somewhat new to Twitter and love to discuss baseball, mainly the Pirates. However, the large majority of discussion is negative, uneducated, or flat out wrong. This makes the discussion unenjoyable and draining. So, how do you view this kind of interaction? Is it worth it?
Keith Law: No, it’s not worth it. I don’t engage in Twitter discussions or arguments anywhere near as often as I did before.

MikeM: You have been bearish on Severino’s ability to be a SP long term. So far this year he has looked great. Has your outlook on him changed at all? Is he just one of those guys who has a funky delivery and is able to make it work?
Keith Law: He looked awful last year, he’s looked great this year. He has improved his slider by at least a full grade, and he’s throwing it a LOT this year. Whether he can hold up with that delivery is another matter.
Keith Law: I have said before, though, that I haven’t seen him live this year to see if he’s corrected the failure to use his lower half.

Matt: Has there ever been talk about a Senior League for MLB? Kinda of how there’s a Senior PGA Tour. It would be pretty cool to see match ups that never happened in MLB. Like Jim Palmer facing Barry Bonds or something like that.
Keith Law: There was one in 1989-90 in Florida; it folded during its second season. They played in the offseason, which probably didn’t help, and they played in Florida, which definitely didn’t help.

Ben: The Tigers say Manning’s velo drops when he’s focused on the zone and pitching ahead in the count. That sound like BS to you?
Keith Law: The only velo that matters is the velo he shows when he’s throwing strikes. 98 to the backstop is just eyewash.

Brett: Would you rather have Bo Bichette or Fernando Tatis in your minor league system and why?
Keith Law: Tatis might stay at short; Bichette won’t. And Tatis has more power.

Carljam: What is step 1 in the Orioles righting their sinking ship?
Keith Law: Something that isn’t likely to happen while Angelos is alive.

MRA in Pasadena: Are you interested in the film adaption of “Station Eleven”? I really enjoyed the book (on your recommendation) but think it would be a better mini-series than movie
Keith Law: It might also be creepy as hell on film, where in the book the post-apocalyptic setting managed to be more atmospheric.

John: Keith,

I plan to be at GenCon all 4 days, but I couldn’t find you in the event list. Where/when do you specifically intend to be holding a book signing there? I definitely don’t want to miss it.
Keith Law: Friday afternoon at 1 pm (I think). I’ll make sure to post about where to find me when the event gets closer.

Gene Mullett: Big jump for me!
Big jump for me!
(Love early Gang of Four)

If you were a GM & needed an SP, is there one you’d target first of those available?
Keith Law: If Darvish is available for a rental, I’d take him in a heartbeat.

Jim (Boston): Any thoughts on Chavis? Does he have a future in Boston?
Keith Law: I think he’s more likely to end up traded than to play for the Sox, but he’s probably a solid-average regular at third or maybe in RF if his defense doesn’t improve enough.

Pat: Why do the Orioles literally punt the international signing period, and shouldnt there be recourse from either the league or the union?
Keith Law: I don’t know, and the recourse is going to be a lack of prospects.

Ethan: Keith, looking for a board game rec for 6 mid-twenties participants, with possibility of partnering into 3 couples. Suggestions?
Keith Law: Citadels is the best game I know for six (or more) players.

Schlitz : How good can Keibert Ruiz be? All the reports I’m reading is he’s a great hitter and a great receiver/framer for being just 19
Keith Law: Lot of potential with the bat. Don’t think he’s a “great receiver/framer” now.

Matthew: Volt in Frederick is quite good. Make reservations for Table 21 (The 8-seater around the prep area of the open kitchen) if that is of interest.
Keith Law: I’ve never actually been there – it’s a pretty long drive for me, and if I need to see the Keys, they come here three times a year.

Tyler: does Verlander get in the HOF? He has essentially had Koufax career to this point.
Keith Law: No he hasn’t, not essentially, not even kind of. Koufax is a fairly strong outlier among HoFers – he only appeared in 12 seasons and only qualified for the ERA title 8 times. He had a HoF peak, but not close to the longevity we typically demand of candidates (barring those who died young or lost time to war). If someone has his career today, I think he’d have a tough time getting in.

Chad: How concerning is Luis Urias’ lack of power?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s ever going to have much power, but it seems like a strange thing on which to fixate given his profile – small guy with great plate discipline, good bat control, plays in the middle of the field.

Tariq: I see a lot of comps of Jesus Luzardo to Gio Gonzales. In your opinion, is that a lazy or fair comparison?
Keith Law: Lazy. I don’t think they’re very similar. But I do think Luzardo can be productive like Gio has – it just won’t come the same way.

Duke: Double stuffed ruined single stuffed for me. Just tastes like all cookie. What’s the reasoning behind your choice?
Keith Law: Because the best part of Oreos is the cookie.

michael: What sources do you recommend for health/nutrition? eg. Are nitrates really bad for you? Is farmed salmon really unhealthy? etc
Keith Law: I look for actual research on the topic, or articles in reliable outlets that refer to actual research (peer-reviewed science). Cured meats prepared with added nitrates (pink salt) aren’t bad for you – nitrates on their own are dangerous, of course – and those labels that claim “nitrate-free” and use celery juice or powder are just scamming you. Celery contains nitrites that serve the same purpose in curing. It’s like claiming “evaporated cane juice” isn’t sugar.

Nick: May be anecdotal but I’ve seen more and more of my friends a peers (mid-20-year-olds) rejecting capitalism outright for socialism. To me, there are too many benefits to capitalism and too many pitfalls to socialism for that. I’m all for meeting in the middle. What’re your thoughts on this?
Keith Law: Here’s my complete list of successful socialist economies:

justin: O’Neill seems a lot like Grichuk. Good power, poor contact. Fair comparison?
Keith Law: Fair comparison.

Kretin: Jahmai Jones promoted to High-A. He wasn’t necessarily lighting Low-A up, are the Angels being too aggressive?
Keith Law: Peculiar. I know he’d been better after a bad April, but he’s still just 19, and now he’s going to play in some good hitters’ parks, which isn’t going to teach him much.

Schlitz : DJ Peters has some swing and miss to his game, though his OBP is high. With his power and speed, what kind of prospect can he become?
Keith Law: He looks like Jayson Werth, physically, but there are some similarities to their games as well. The swing and miss is the real concern.

Jack: Should Tigers fans be concerned about reports of Manning’s velocity being down this year? I read that he may have been asked to dial it back so that he could improve his command.
Keith Law: I’m probably answering too many Manning questions here, but he couldn’t throw strikes in the spring. He wasn’t “asked to” dial it back; he had to.

Jeffery: Am I the only White Sox fan who feels like we may have given a lot away for nothing?
Keith Law: I think so. All the other White Sox fans are yelling at me for ranking any non-White Sox prospects in my top 20.

Dean: Franklin Barreto has struck out 123 times this season. How much of a concern is this?
Keith Law: For a speed/slap guy with a very compact swing, it’s a huge concern. I wouldn’t have called him up.

BE: AA says he got the best he could for JDM. Is he the right guy to handle what looks to be an ugly rebuid?
Keith Law: If that was the best offer on July 18th, I might have waited until closer to the deadline. Walking away from that deal wouldn’t have been the end of the world.

Brett: What are the Law’s doing this weekend?
Keith Law: Family birthday party (wife’s side). And trying not to melt.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for bearing with me on the late start. I should be back next Thursday, before I head to Chicago for my talk at the Standard Club and signing at Volumes Book Cafe on the 28th. Enjoy your weekends.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments.

My updated ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors is now up for Insiders, as is my analysis of the Cubs-White Sox trade.

Keith Law: Klawchat. A cry for help in a world gone mad.

Matt: I’m surprised Alex Reyes didn’t make the list at all. Tommy John is pretty common now a days. His arm that big of a concern going forward?
Keith Law: TJ surgery is common, but not routine or something to handwave away. The success rate is still only around 85%, maybe a tick lower, and that’s without considering whether pitchers who have one are at greater risk of having another. So, since he’s not even back throwing yet, I don’t think he’s a top 50 prospect right now.

Bryan Daniel Carter: Was Derek Fisher in consideration? What are your thoughts on his breakout this year?
Keith Law: In consideration, not top 50.

Pops: Sixto Sanchez deserves a place at the table. Have you seen his electric arm?
Keith Law: Saw him last night and tweeted about him several times. Not top 50, somewhere in the next tier.

Brendan: What separates Vladdy from Bo Bichette, considering performances so far? Is it age, mechanics, something else?
Keith Law: Yes, all of that, but especially age. Doing what Vlad and Tatis are doing at age 18 in full-season ball is ridiculous.

Andrew: Before the last two were promoted, Lakewood had an all time grade 80 pitching staff of names: Sixto Sanchez, Adonis Medina, Ranger Suarez, JoJo Romero
Keith Law: I hadn’t realized that but yes, that’s a murderer’s row of great names.

Bob: Within the Padres organization, Lauer and Lucchesi have been phenomenal, but are never cited as having the upside that Quantrill does. Granted that their time in the minors has been pretty short, but what is it that’s seen as the limiting factor that they have relative to Quantrill?
Keith Law: Nowhere close to the same stuff.

Ben: How far off your list was Maitan? About how many years away is he?
Keith Law: He’s 17 with a handful of GCL at bats, not really enough to justify running him up the list. He’d be in the next group as well.

Mike F: Just finished Smart Baseball and loved it! I was a little surprised to see Kingery on the list at 31 but Hoskins not make it. Is it mostly because of defense? Thanks for all the writing and the chats!
Keith Law: Hoskins is 1b only and there’s still a lot of doubt about whether it’s going to be more than just average power in the majors. I think he’s at least an everyday player, but I think Kingery is at least an above-average everyday player.

Jake: Thoughts on Acuna’s bump to Gwinnett? Do the Braves see Andruw 2.0 in him?
Keith Law: I think they’re rushing him. He’s a hell of a prospect, but I don’t get the urgency here, and I’d like to see him struggle at a level and then have to stay there long enough to make adjustments at the plate, since he’s not very patient or selective.

addoeh: No Luis Robert?! Don’t you know an anonymous, and perhaps non-existent, director of international scouting claimed he was the best player on the planet, without exaggeration?
Keith Law: I had heard about that, yes, and share your skepticism that the source even exists.

Randy Burgess: Do you think Flaherty (50), Tyler Mahle, and Chance Adams have similar ceilings?
Keith Law: I do not. Flaherty’s is higher. Adams is the most ready of those three. All are big-league starters.

Joel Embiid: What are your thoughts on J.P. Crawford since he’s fallen out of your top-50? Should Phillies fans be alarmed?
Keith Law: I got nothing but negative reports on him from scouts and execs this month. I heard unanimous downgrades on his defense at short, and multiple scouts say he’s swinging for the fences too much and becoming much less disciplined at the plate. I’m alarmed, and I’ve been a big fan of his since high school. I don’t know if he’s sulking, or if he thinks hitting bombs will get him promoted, or maybe I was just wrong about his ability, but this doesn’t sound like the guy I’ve seen every year for the past four or five years.

Dario Saric: Why didn’t Sixto Sanchez crack the top-50?
Keith Law: The simple answer is that I think there are fifty prospects who are currently more valuable (or valued, by the industry and me) than he is.

Ryan: Philly.com had a very impressive article about Sixto Sanchez’s start last night, quoting four scouts in attendance. I believe you were also in attendance from your Twitter account. Thoughts and would that have changed today list at all? Thanks!
Keith Law: I finished this list after I got home from Lakewood; if I thought I had to change the list based on one 62-pitch outing, I would have, but didn’t. It’s an 80 fastball and it’s very easy. The rest is a work in progress.

Chris: Keith, any real concerns with Delvin Perez yet? Only a couple weeks worth of games but he’s been demoted and there seem to be serious concerns with his work ethic? If his name was Chase Peters (wink, wink) would people still be as concerned?
Keith Law: He had off-field/behavior questions in HS, some tied to actual incidents, so I don’t think this is racial issue. He needs to grow the heck up. No one suggested him for my top 50 either.

@richfreed: Cleveland media says Mejia is vastly improved defensively. He has worked on his English and communicates better with pitchers. Truth or local media pumping a prospect?
Keith Law: I saw him once in AA plus the Futures Game, and he threw great but received just fine. Couple of scouts I asked who’ve seen that club more were more bearish on his glove. I think he’ll be fine in time, but isn’t major-league ready defensively.

Jake: Where would Luis Robert have ranked? I’m assuming he didn’t qualify.
Keith Law: He qualified. Not top 50.

Randy Burgess: Do you think Alderson is preventing Rosario from getting the Conforto-treatment by a lame duck Collins?
Keith Law: That’s possible. Until Collins is gone, I can’t be terribly optimistic about short-term development of prospects (Rosario, Smith, anyone else they call up).

Ethan: No Tigers arms in your top 50?! How would you rank Burrows-Manning-Faedo-Funkhouser?
Keith Law: Burrows, Funkhouser, Faedo, Manning. Manning was having trouble throwing strikes this spring, and his stuff has been down in the NYPL.

Nate: Two questions. Was Espinoza left off because of concerns he can stay healthy or diminished stuff? Raul Mondesi make the list if he were prospect eligible?
Keith Law: He’s been hurt all year and might not pitch in games at all until instructs. That’s kind of a problem. Mondesi was not eligible.

Kevin: Michel Baez has been dominant but it sounds like it’s been primarily his fastball. How’s his secondary stuff?
Keith Law: Saw him in March, it was mostly FB and sheer size. Big dude, gets on top of the ball well.

Kevin S.: Hey Keith. Any idea what happened to Blake Rutherford? A quick look at his stat line is showing a power drop-off. Do you think that’s something structural there, or is it just adjustment to a more challenging level?
Keith Law: Hoping to see him in Lakewood this weekend. Two scouts I asked said he’s just not making hard contact at all. That’s shocking given what I saw from him in HS (and what I think everyone else saw too).

kur: Seems like with all the mediocre-to-bad reports on Yadi Alvarez (flat FB, zero command of anything) other publications have zero problem moving him down, but he actually jumped almost 20 spots for you. Any particular reason?
Keith Law: We had a lot of graduations and guys dropping due to injury; inertia moved a lot of guys up. I could not care less about other publications’ rankings.

John: What does Martes, Perez, and Alvarez get the Astros in trade? Cole? Quintana? Gray?
Keith Law: I can tell you this: It won’t get them Quintana!

boston: any particular reason you do a top 50 and not a top 100?
Keith Law: The amount of work required and the desire not to give anyone a false sense of precision.

Raylan: Can Ian Happ play CF on an everyday basis?
Keith Law: No.

Robbie: If you were GM of the Orioles, what would be your plan for Machado?
Keith Law: Have to trade him. Now or winter, but there’s really no other option.

Jesse: Austin Meadows has dropped from #9 in your preseason ranks to outside the top 50. Is the upside still there if he ever manages to stay healthy? Or have the skills eroded as well?
Keith Law: Trouble staying healthy and hasn’t performed at all in AAA.

Erik: Taking T.J. into consideration, what range did Braxton Garrett fall into?
Keith Law: Like Reyes, somewhere in the top 100, Garrett lower since he never even got to pitch.

Jason: What is Kingery’s ceiling?
Keith Law: All-Star ceiling. 70 glove, 70 run, at least 55 power now. Wish he’d show more patience – he is up there to hit, and if he gets a pitch, especially a fastball in the zone, he thinks he can drive, he’s after it, which is fine until he faces pitchers who can avoid those areas in the strike zone. But I’m buying.

Dusty: Do you agree with the aggressive promotion of Acuna to AAA? Think he sees the majors in 2017?
Keith Law: I assume this is the plan for them – probably was all along. It’s not like he dominated high-A to justify the first promotion, so this must be a “get him to the majors” agenda.

Gene Mullett: Thanks for the chat. Multiple, but quick ones…

1)Is Mejia’s bat ready for the show? Is he mostly in the minors to work on receiving skills? I love Gomes, but I am not sure I can stand to watch another AB.

2)Is a signed copy of the book available or should I suck it up, buy one, & then just hope to run into you at a Carolina League park?
Keith Law: Some bookstores I visit will have me sign extra copies for them to sell. Books and Books in Coral Gables, Florida, has (had) at least ten when I left on Saturday.

jay_B: Cubs (and former Cubs) have a couple of high spots on the updated list, but after that, not much. Any Cubs prospects that are close to the list, or who have the potential to make the list next year?
Keith Law: And they lost one since you submitted this. Alzolay would be their next guy outside the 50. De la Cruz might be next, if he comes back and can stay healthy the rest of the year.

Nate: Keith, were there any considerations for Dunning or Hansen of the White Sox?
Keith Law: No – good prospects, not top 50.

JK: If you were ranking those same 50 prospects for fantasy players, who would rise and drop the most? Many of us reference your list but it’s somewhat difficult without knowing how much of their talent is glove vs bat. Thanks for any insight.
Keith Law: Hard to say. I haven’t played fantasy baseball in any form in 15 years, and I don’t really keep track of the counting stats that matter in fantasy.

The Bilmo: Why does everyone have to get in the game? Isn’t the important thing being named to the team?
Keith Law: I don’t know when this became a Thing, but it is definitely one now, and I agree that it makes the game worse to watch.

NYTT: How difficult is it to avoid prospect fatigue in evaluations/rankings? Do you try and be cognizant of prospect fatigue and minimize it or not worry about it because you know it will be there regardless?
Keith Law: I am not sure what you mean.

Matt: Hi Keith, love your work. Has the opinion on Tyler O’neil shifted some given his recent hot streak? Seems to have adjusted after a pretty crummy start.
Keith Law: He wasn’t on my top 100 before the season and he wouldn’t be on it now.

Josh C: What are your thoughts on Francis Martes? Would he have made the top 50 if he wasn’t in the majors right now? How do you compare him to Whitley, Perez, etc?
Keith Law: I think he was in my preseason top 50. Beyond that, it’s hard to say – he’s now pitched against major-league hitters for several weeks, and I can’t pretend that didn’t happen. Whitley is the one who seems to be emerging as the best of the group, although that’s no slight on the other two.

Matt: Are your rankings based on your own scouting or are they based on your impressions of industry consensus?
Keith Law: I see as many players as I can, but I can’t see everyone, and I don’t get long looks at guys, so I talk to lots of scouts and execs. I circulated several versions of the top 50 starting about a week ago and asked folks (all with teams) for feedback. The final list reflects much of what they gave back to me.

NYTT: How did Cristian Pache look last night?
Keith Law: Great in center, overwhelmed at the plate by the dude throwing 100.

Marc : Any consideration for Woodruff in top 50?
Keith Law: Players in the majors right now are not eligible for my midyear lists. He’s actually on the major-league DL, so he’s out.

NYTT: I know Joey Wentz didn’t make the top 50, but everything I’ve read about him has been very positive. What does he need to show next year to be put on that level with the elite left handed starters in the minors, aside from durability?
Keith Law: Would like to see better pure stuff. I think he has modest projection, not huge but enough that another half-grade of everything ought to be in there.

Jason: Any chance Alex Jackson can play himself back into being considered a legitimate prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, just no longer an elite one. I think he’ll get to the majors.

Marc : What’s your take on Hoskins? Some Phillies fans think Tommy Joseph is “too good” to trade away…
Keith Law: I would have Hoskins up in the majors already.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Do you think Kyle Tucker will ultimately be traded this deadline?
Keith Law: I don’t. I think they’d trade Fisher first.

Nick: Didn’t expect him to be in the top 50 but what are your thoughts on Jesus Sanchez? Can he be top 50 by the January top 100?
Keith Law: Could be top 100 in January, but I didn’t rank more than about 60 guys in this exercise.

Rick: With Corey Ray, is the talent out of line with results? Thanks a lot for the list and chat.
Keith Law: He, Clark, and Erceg have all been various shades of disappointing in high-A. Ray perhaps the most – just swinging and missing too much at pitching of a caliber he should hit.

Nick: Franklin Perez… what do you think his ETA is? Pitching well at AA but so young why rush, right? Or does he still have a lot of arm strength and durability build (total assumption based on age)?
Keith Law: After Julio Urias’ injury, why NOT rush? Perez isn’t a projection guy – he’s pretty filled out already – but needs to work on command and learning to pitch more off the FB, based especially on what I saw from him last month.

Jason: Was Luis Urias close at all to making your top 50?
Keith Law: He was not.

Tim: Do you think Bo Bichette will be a guy who has trouble in more advanced levels because of his unusual swing/approach?
Keith Law: I think his hand-eye coordination is so good and his hands so quick that he won’t.

Dallas: Hunter Greene has the exact same size (6-3, 195) as Michael Kopech when Kopech was drafted. Judging by their draft slots it’s obvious Greene was a far better draft prospect but is Kopech in 2017 someone who Greene could be in 2019 (earlier because hopefully no injury or suspension)?
Keith Law: That’s a reasonable forecast, but I will say I hope that Greene in two years has a more consistent slider than Kopech has now. Kopech’s will show plus, and then he’ll throw one that’s a 45. He’s missed so much time and his arm has gotten so fast that I think he’s still figuring out how to use it, but the fact that he can show a plus slider and can show an above-average changeup is all positive.

Lee D, LA: Keith, if you were Dodgers GM, would you trade a top prospect (e.g. Verdugo) to upgrade left field from Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480)?
Keith Law: I would promote Verdugo to upgrade left field from Chris Taylor.

J.P.: Thoughts on the Q for Eloy/Cease/etc trade? We gotta know!
Keith Law: Already filed to ESPN an hour-plus ago. Waiting for them to post.

Nick: Do you think Lucius Fox can hit enough to be a major league starter one day?
Keith Law: He needs to get a LOT stronger. But he’s also the age of a HS senior.

TJ: In terms of prospects, how much would Brad Hand or another good reliever fetch in trade? Two top 100s?
Keith Law: Any GM who gives up two top 100s for Brad Hand should be fired.

Jake: Now that Quintana is off the board, who do you think is the best starter available for trade?
Keith Law: Probably Gray.

Frank: Keith thanks again for doing these chats. There were no Giants on the list. Were Beede, Reynolds or Suarez close to cracking the top 50?
Keith Law: Not really, no. Been a tough year on the farm for them.

Mo: The Yankees had 5 top 50 guys preseason. One graduated, one got hurt (Kaprelian), and two (Rutherford and Frazier) seem to have dropped off. Two questions — (1) it seems like the farm overall has had a good year, with something like 6-9 top 100 or near top 100 caliber prospects even after the graduations and injuries, but that there’s been a move from those guys being concentrated at the top of the list to the bottom. Is that fair? (2) Why in particular did Frazier and Rutherford drop as much as they did. Frazier has a 122 wRC+ in AAA and success in his tiny sample in the majors. Curious what you’re seeing on him that isn’t necessarily reflected by the stats.
Keith Law: Frazier is in the majors and ineligible.

KG: Hi Keith – in the Quintana trade to the Cubs, did the White Sox get more from the Cubs than they were being offered by other teams in the offseason? The Sox weren’t going to contend so not trading him before the season seemed to introduce risk from subpar performance or injury to Quintana. And if the Sox were waiting for a bidding war between multiple teams still in contention at the trade deadline, did they trade Quintana too soon now? Thanks.
Keith Law: I know Hahn said it was the best offer they’d gotten on Quintana. I don’t have any information to the contrary – I’ve said before that the rumored Astros offer was bogus.

Marcus: Holy crap, the White Sox will be amazing in 2020
Keith Law: It sure as heck looks like it.

Theo: Am I going to regret letting go of Eloy?
Keith Law: I think Eloy is going to be a star. Whether you regret it depends on what Q does for you in the next three years.

Darren: Who was the toughest omission? the number 51 guy you couldn’t fit on the list but wanted to?
Keith Law: There wasn’t just one guy, but others I considered at least: Morejon, Conner Greene, Ronald Guzman, Kevin Maitan (just too little info), Sheffield, Fernando Romero, Sixto, Alzolay.

Evan: I was a bit surprised to see Yordan Alvarez in your top 50 as you tend to be generally averse to 1B-only prospects. Is this a reflection of how monstrous his bat could be, or do you buy into reports stating the Astros believe he could play LF?
Keith Law: Dude can hit.

KPB: What do you like about Logan Warmouth that makes you rank him higher than others ?
Keith Law: Again, don’t know or care where “others” rank him. I like his swing, his defense at short, and his makeup.

Dave53: The last fourteen outs recorded by Dillon Maples for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies have all been by strikeout. (Three hits, Three walks, and no runs over the five outings.) Can Maples contribute at the MLB level this year?
Keith Law: Heard he’s been up to 99 with a +++ slider. His K% in AA is 45% (27/60). Yeah, I think he can. They should nickname him “the Revenant” because his prospect status was deader than dead.

Darren: Have you read the reports on the recent differences in the making of MLB baseballs? How do changes get made to the specific size and make up of an MLB baseball and not get reported? This is critical information that should be made public, but yet it takes investigative reporting to discover. IMHO it seems like MLB management is trying to sneak moreoffense into the game artificially without telling the fans? Would like to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: As Rob Arthur wrote in that great 538 piece I keep citing, the specifications for regulation baseballs are flexible enough that the ball can differ in tangible ways and still be considered okay.

addoeh: What time will you be on Waddle and Silvy this afternoon to talk about Quintana for Jimenez/Cease?
Keith Law: Good guess. 4:30 CT.

Norman: How far has Corey Ray fallen in your eyes, and with the good news on his arm and the incredible start to his pro career (albeit in rookie league) was Keston Hiura anywhere close to your top 50?
Keith Law: Ray is well out of the top 50, and Hiura was not close. He doesn’t really have a position right now.

TP: Do off the field issues involving a prospect’s family members impact his draft status or standing with an organization?
Keith Law: It may have hurt Groome in the draft last year; there were a lot of rumors about bad makeup, and I think most folks knew there was at least one family member involved with drugs, but I don’t know how much that drove Groome down to pick 12 – or if it was just general concern about a HS pitcher. I know a lot of false stories were out there about him last spring and even after he signed.

Beau Burrows: Coming into the year Florial was all tools. Has his performance this year put him in the conversation for your top 50?
Keith Law: It’s a long path from setup to contact, and it shows in the 30%+ strikeout rate. I think he’s still intriguing, but he wasn’t a consideration at all for the 50.

Greg P: What’s the outlook for Kyle Zimmer? I know he is pitching again, but will his health ever let him get to the majors and will it be as a reliever if he does?
Keith Law: They’re giving him so many days off between outings that I’m not sure how he could pitch as a major-league reliever.

Formica: Do what extent do you care about this juiced ball stuff?
Keith Law: I care if it’s affecting player outcomes. If certain pitchers are struggling with the transition because the ball is different, that’s a real issue, not just for my work but for the work done by the people I know in front offices and scouting departments too.

Chris A: Do you see any reasonable, wholesale changes that can be made to the minor league system to make it better for players? Apart from just increasing salaries, is there something grander that could be done?
Keith Law: Pay them a fair wage (and comply with minimum wage laws). Restore the old rule 5 rules. Tie minor league free agency to age rather than service time, so college players don’t have to wait till they’re 27 or 28 to get there.

EC: Thanks for the top 50 list and all the content you produce. My question is about that content, which appears here, on Paste, on BBC America, and other places outside of ESPN. Is this something that you had to negotiate for? Or are you allowed to do your own thing as long as it isn’t directly competing with other ESPN content?
Keith Law: Short answer is that my contract allows me to write non-sports content for other outlets. I couldn’t write about sports for anyone else without ESPN’s express permission, and in that case, they would be within their rights to withhold it.

Anthony: Years back I was leaning into the anti vax movement but eventually settled into the “spread them out” camp. Looking at the article you post was one of the biggest reasons I came to my senses and moved on from any anti vax sentiments. I truly believe conversation is the key to changing minds, as headstrong as some are. Thanks
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ll ever change the minds of the delusional lunatics in the anti-vax camp. I want there to be plenty of pro-science, pro-vaccination information and commentary out there for anyone who comes into the fray with questions. Otherwise they’ll just hear the idiots.

Matt: If Judge and Stanton can’t hit a baseball 565 feet, can we stop pretending that Mickey Mantle did it?
Keith Law: I said this on Twitter the other day and it applies to Josh Gibson too. Unless the winds were 40 mph blowing out or the ball wasn’t actually a baseball, then no, it didn’t happen.

Nolan: Here’s something that’s been gnawing at me: as good of a job as the White Sox seem to be doing of facilitating their rebuild, how in the holy hell did the Shields/Tatis swap happen? Reports on Tatis seemed positive almost immediately after they traded him, and now he seems to be a budding star. Shouldn’t the Sox have had the best read on him? It’s not like they were going after a huge trade target, and had to include him. They gave him up for a starter who is essentially cooked now and was essentially cooked at the time.
Keith Law: I think that if Tatis had just started playing anywhere before the deal they wouldn’t have done it. He slipped through the internal cracks, which isn’t an excuse, but it’s a reason.

Chris: Now that the Chicago teams set a price, is Gray for Fisher, Perez/Whitley, plus a low end lottery ticket too heavy, too light, or juuuuuuuust right?
Keith Law: That’s an awful lot.

Brian: Now that’s he’s healthy, what kind of player can chavis end up being? what does he need to continue to work on?
Keith Law: Defense is still a big question for me. Also not sold on the approach vs better pitching, but we’ll get a better read on that now that he’s in AA.

Joe: Keith, how concerned are you about the underwhelming seasons of Moniak and Rutherford?
Keith Law: quite concerned, for different reasons – Rutherford because he’s already 20, Moniak because he really doesn’t like left-handed pitching at all.

Little Jerry Seinfeld: What are the Braves doing with these aggressive promotions? Austin Riley to AA?? He’s struggling at high A. Why move up Acuna so quickly ? There’s not even a spot for him on the ML outfield.
Keith Law: Riley to AA makes absolutely no sense. That’s like the Yanks promoting Mateo after a .290 OBP in high-A. I know it’s not just about statistical benchmarks, but don’t you want to reward good performance and avoid rewarding bad performance?

Grant: Keith – How much is proximity to majors factored into these new ranks? I ask because Hunter Greene over Brent Honeywell provides an interesting debate!
Keith Law: Does it? Greene has way more upside than almost any pitcher in the minors. Honeywell is closer to major-league value.

Nate: Quintana get about what you thought or more than you expected?
Keith Law: Given how much I believe in Eloy, I’d say it’s about what I thought.

Dave: Love what you do for the fan’s Klaw!Now that Jimenez and Cease have moved south, does that impact their ranking in any way? Is organization a factor in your ranking?
Keith Law: It is not. Jimenez was #5 this morning, and he’s still #5 now (but we’ve updated the article and logo).

Dougie Jones: Do the White Sox now have the #1 system?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’d put them over Atlanta, which has so much more depth (7 guys on my top 50, and the list keeps on going). But they might be #2. I haven’t done a ton of work on that.

Cam: What are your biggest concerns with Triston McKenzie? Could he potentially be an ace?
Keith Law: That he has to walk around the storm grate or he’ll slip through the bars.

Joe: Yankees only had 1 Top 50 prospect, which isn’t the worst thing since a lot of their top talent has lost eligibility, but is it a concern to you that they don’t have enough top end talent? I assume that they have at least 3 back end Top 100 between Rutherford, Frazier, and Sheffield.
Keith Law: Frazier isn’t eligible, as I said above, but Kaprielian would be somewhere there, and I think Adams would be too. Florial I discussed above, but I think the jury is still out on him.

Andrew: Yordan Alvarez sure shot up quick. He says he models his swing after Hosmer. Do you see any similarity in that comp? More power potential (I hope)?
Keith Law: Looked like it (more power, now and future) to me.

John: I realize its sss but Royce Lewis is posting huge numbers in rookie ball, any reason not to move him to Cedar Rapids (low-A)?
Keith Law: You’re proposing a two-level jump for an 18-yo after 13 games. I don’t agree with that.

Chris: I am guessing Royce Lewis is SSS but I am guessing he is top 75? Could you see him top 50 at years end?
Keith Law: Probably top 75, based on draft ranking. Still playing short, and I don’t believe he can stay there. (If I thought he had even a 50/50 shot at staying at short, he’d have been a top 50 prospect.)

Andy: Why is there no baseball today? This would be a great day to do make up games or even schedule games to allow an off day later this season.
Keith Law: Union wanted the extra off day. I can’t blame them.

Grant: Walker Buehler and Mitch Keller close by on the list – Seems like Buehler’s stuff is more impressive, what does Keller do well?
Keith Law: Keller has been up to 99 before, so I dispute the premise of your question. He’s also got a better build/frame.

Paddy: Why is Robles ranked higher than Acuna? Acuna seems to be a better hitter and has played at higher levels?
Keith Law: I dispute that he’s a better hitter, and he’s played at higher levels because they’re rushing him up the ladder. I think Robles has a better approach and is presently a better defensive CF.

Chris: Hot take on the trade?
Keith Law: I don’t do hot takes.

Neema: Do you think there’s >20% chance that AJ Puk makes the necessary improvement to become a Top-10 prospect?
Keith Law: I’d probably take the under on that. I rarely have more than 3 pitchers in my top 10, and I don’t feel like i could see him as a top 3 pitching prospect.

Jack: Was Alec Hansen close to making it ? If not on the list, has he surpassed Lopez and Fulmer in the system?
Keith Law: I have had Hansen over those two (who project as relievers for me) all along.

Paddy: Why aren’t you high on Jon Duplantier? You can’t argue with his numbers!
Keith Law: I can indeed: He’s a 22-yo college product in low-A. And it’s not huge stuff.

Amy: I was a little surprised to see Groome ahead of Greene. What was the (small) separator and who is more likely to reach a no 2ish?
Keith Law: Groome has the out-pitch curveball. I think they’re both likely to get to #2 or better status.

Chris: Were any July 2 guys in contention this year?
Keith Law: No. I think I’ve ranked exactly one July 2nd 16-year-old on my top 100s in the last five years, Maitan, who by all accounts was an exceptional prospect.

PJ: When Bour has a breakout year you indicate it’s a fluke. When Kingery has a huge power spike is it a fluke or him getting stronger, older, etc. When’s the cutoff on determining that?
Keith Law: Bour is 29. And I don’t believe I ever called it a “fluke.”

Salty: Missed you at Lakewood by a day a couple weeks ago – wanted to check out Sixto live. Would you rank the following based on pure stuff alone Groome/Keller/Sixto? Of the three, does Keller have the more likely chance to become a #1/#2, or is Groome on the same level?
Keith Law: Sixto probably has a top three fastball in all of the minors. He hit 100 six times in 46 or 47 fastballs last night, and it’s got a little life to it. Groome and Keller have way better breaking stuff.

Tracy: Book question: you mentioned Andersonville in a previous post. Is that on your reading docket or not?
Keith Law: Eventually. I have seven Pulitzer winners left, and that’s one of them. It looks like a beast, though, so I’m procrastinating.

Tim: Saw you at Lakewood last night, and noticed you did not stand for God Bless America. I think the requirement of one, let alone two patriotic songs is ridiculous, but do you ever get criticized by fans for doing so or worry about it impacting your employment?
Keith Law: That’s correct. I don’t care if folks don’t like it. You stand if you want to. I’ll refrain from standing if I want to.

Matt: Did Christin Stewart get any consideration? The power seems to be legit, and after a slow start, he’s up to .268/.346/.533 in Erie.
Keith Law: Power is legit but I think he’s a 45 glove in left.

JR: You called it on the podcast yesterday – the Cubs would look to trade for a young, controllable starter. I’m assuming we will get a write up from you on the trade at some point?
Keith Law: I’m still waiting for a link over here.
Keith Law: Whoop, they never sent it to me, but it’s up.

Dom: How do you rate players who will obviously make the majors at some point, i.e. someone like Kyle Holder who fields well enough to at least be a UTIL, versus objectively higher ceiling guys who may never make it?
Keith Law: Huge tilt in favor of the latter. I think the Holders of the world are relatively easy to find. Not value-less, but low value.

Aubrey: Considering the wide variability apparently in what Derek Fisher could be, is it safe to say some organizations might consider him a future star, and value him accordingly? Or his potential floor would temper that for pretty much any team?
Keith Law: Probably fair. I think questions about his defense and how much contact he’ll make in the majors will ding his trade value, but he’d still be a major piece in a larger trade.

Jake : Brewers prospect most likely to crack your next rankings update?
Keith Law: The next update will be 100 names in January. I imagine there will be a half-dozen or so Brewers on there.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up and get some other work done. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions – I had hundreds more than I could answer this week. I should be back next Thursday or Friday, depending on travel, for another chat. Come see me in Harrisburg at Midtown Scholar at 3 pm on Saturday, and at Books Inc in Berkeley CA on Wednesday at 7:30 pm!

New content: I reviewed the boardgame Great Western Trail for Paste this week, and previewed the Futures Game for Insiders. I also have a new piece up at Vulture looking at how the TV show Orphan Black has used boardgames as an integral part of several episodes.

I’ll be at Books and Books in Coral Gables, Florida, on Saturday at 3 pm to discuss my new book Smart Baseball and sign copies for readers.

Keith Law: Klawchat: One man on a lonely platform.

Eddy: If we want to say hi during futures game, when would be the best time? And where?
Keith Law: After BP is done, which is usually about an hour before game time, I’ll find a spot on the concourse to meet folks. If anyone has a suggestion for a good location – I’ve never set foot in Loria’s Boondoggle before – I’m all ears.

Jack: Who among the A’s young position players is likely to see success in the big leagues? Other than Barreto and Chapman, are any of Pinder/Healy/Olson/Brugman/Maxwell likely to be MLB regulars or better?
Keith Law: I would not bet on any of those five guys, individually, becoming average big leaguers.

Philip: What have you heard about Logan Allen’s stuff this year? Could he merit offseason top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s been good like it was last year, but if I say he’ll get consideration for the top 100, that’s kind of a non-answer because I consider hundreds of players.

Jim: Is there a way to read your work without receiving gay porn in the mail?
Keith Law: I don’t care for or about the body issue, but characterizing non-explicit photos as “gay porn” is a little dramatic.

Shawn: Does Forrest Whitley have ace potential? Ken Rosenthal said he’s hearing that Whitley is basically untouchable in trade with the Astros.
Keith Law: He’s got pretty high upside, clearly a top 50 guy at this point. Hard to call any teenaged pitcher “untouchable” given how fragile arms are.

Greg: As a fan following GCL/AZL leagues, I know there’s not a ton of value in the stats — if any at all. Is there anything of value in the numbers of a player in those leagues?
Keith Law: The problem is the wide variance in levels of competition makes the stats almost impossible to interpret without scouting context. Look at Dante Bichette Jr’s GCL line from 2011: he was 18, hit .342/.446/.505 with a strikeout rate around 16%, and has been awful ever since. In 900 PA in AA he’s got a .233/.310/.343 line.

Hank: Max Fried has been horrible this year, and there are reports of the stuff not being as good this season. Have you heard anything?
Keith Law: I have heard multiple reports that the stuff is every bit as good as it was last year. I have no idea where you’re getting that info.

Coolguy: Thought’s on Austin Hays?
Keith Law: I think average regular, trending upwards as he continues to hit better pitching.

Fred: Bellinger’s HR production has dropped significantly the last couple of weeks. Realistically, the previous pace was not sustainable, and I assume the league has made adjustments, and now its his turn to do same. Given that the overall AB quality looks good, he should start hitting them out again in time, agree? Also, what kind of ceiling for him is realistic?
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular 30-HR guy who’ll have a few 40+ seasons, with strong OBPs and ridiculous defense at first. MVP type of player.

Jshep12: Yankee brass anonymously criticizing Bird for being hurt. Warranted or are they jerks?
Keith Law: Jerks. Even if it’s true, don’t slag your players to the press. And put your fucking name on it if you do it, you cowards.

Bill: Do you believe Maikel Franco will ever be good enough to start on a good team?
Keith Law: I think he still has the potential but he’s shown no adjustments in almost two years now.

Coolguy: If Carter Kieboom comes back soon and continues to hit could he still make to p100 lists, or has he missed too much time?
Keith Law: There are a lot of ifs in there that make it hard to answer. Even if he misses the rest of the season, it might be difficult to justify putting him on my top 100, but lack of information isn’t the same as negative information. He would still be a good prospect, but I would be working with less evidence (stats and scouting) to justify a high ranking.

Matt: Does Joe Gray have 1-1 potential
Keith Law: Yes, from what I’ve seen/heard.

Esteban: Is Daniel Brito a riser for you? Is he someone you’ve gotten any eyes on?
Keith Law: Yes, I saw him last week. Completely overmatched. Very interesting projection, but he looked like a kid playing grown-ups.

Stomper: Austin Beck is off to a putrid start in Rookie ball – be concerned? SSS? Other factors like an 18 y/o living on his own? All of the above?
Keith Law: Just the contact rate – he never faced good pitching as an amateur, missing the 2016 summer due to injury and playing weak competition this spring (I saw his school win a 15-0 game via mercy rule in 3 innings, and he got 4 PA). But he could whiff 40% of the time this summer and still end up a good player – it depends on whether he can make any adjustments to his approach now that he’s 1) swinging a wood bat and 2) facing guys with better stuff on a semi-regular basis.

Rob: Favorite QOTSA album? Era Vulgaris is last, but I can see an argument for every other album of theirs being best.
Keith Law: I don’t know that I’ve ever loved any of their albums start to finish; I tend to like 3-5 tracks from every record. Era Vulgaris had the most songs that I liked, but I don’t know if any song from that record makes my QotSA top five.

AlmostSmartBaseball: Eloy Jimenez untouchable for you?
Keith Law: No. If you can get a young, high-end starter with some years of control left, you trade him. And I think Eloy is a future superstar, too.

Mike: What’s been your assessment of Alex Wood? Is he this good or is this not sustainable?
Keith Law: He’s got very little history of health, and is now throwing harder than before, so I think he’ll continue to dominate as long as he can stay on the mound but am skeptical that he can do that all year.

Benjamin: What would you say is Royce Lewis’ ceiling?
Keith Law: A 60 overall player as a CF – a sometime All-Star who adds value on defense, with his bat, and especially on the bases.

James Williams: Any suggestions you could give to a 23 year old trying to figure out what they want to do in life?
Keith Law: Find something you love to do and see if there’s any potential for a career in it. Many people don’t get that opportunity at all, but you’re young enough to give it one shot.

Jerry: I got rid of my cable specifically because of ESPN. Chord cutting and ESPN’s general crapiness are not independent of one another. What’s it like to work for a failing company?
Keith Law: You seem to have some issues, not the least of which is your atrocious command of the language. ESPN isn’t failing and Disney, which is my actual employer (my paychecks say Disney, my benefits are Disney), is thriving.

Benjamin: What is Brent Rooker’s potential?
Keith Law: I think there’s a low probability of him hitting enough high-level pitching to be a regular, but that potential is there – he could be a regular at 1b/dh. The swing itself is fine and he’s strong as heck.

Nick: Bobby Bradley seems to be getting better as the year goes on, any chance he makes enough contact in the majors to be a starting 1B?
Keith Law: Any chance, yes, but a low one. Didn’t look good when I saw him last month, especially in terms of picking up pitches.

James: Do you think players like Fulmer and Aaron Nola will be available at the deadline for huge returns?
Keith Law: I would be surprised if either was traded.

Nate : Keith, Chicago media is pumping Collins defensive improvement. Have you heard anything to validate this?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Kris: What are the chances of Aaron Blair and Jake Thompson regaining their footing on possible MLB careers?
Keith Law: I’d give Blair more of a chance than Thompson, but both have lost stuff, not just results, and I don’t know why or when to forecast a pitcher recovering lost velocity.

John: I have read several articles about the ball 100% being juiced this year. What say you?
Keith Law: I interviewed Rob Arthur (538) on the BBTN pod yesterday, and he mentioned the Ringer article on the same topic. The evidence is quite clear. The ball is different, enough to explain more than half of the rise in HR.

Todd Boss: How is Seth Romero getting an overslot deal? He has no college team to return to and all these well-known character issues. What leverage does he have?
Keith Law: I think some teams told players pre-draft, “we’ll give you $x if you get to our pick, so tell teams above us you won’t sign.” That’s not legal, of course, but everyone does it and I don’t see any harm at all in it. However, if you picked above Washington and liked Romero, wouldn’t you just take him and dare him to turn you down? Maybe give him Matt Harrington’s phone number? Or Karsten Whitson’s?

Jon: Any concerns over Austin Meadows’ injury history?
Keith Law: Yes, very much so.

Jon Orr: What’s Jack Flaherity’s upside and when can Cards fans expect to see him up?
Keith Law: It’s mid-rotation/average starter sort of stuff, with plus command. I would like to see him Sunday vs the good World bats to see how guys who haven’t seen him before seem to pick up the ball out of his hand; he’s always had a very clean delivery, but I don’t know how much deception is there. I do like him quite a bit, just not sure how high the upside is.

Brian: Bashing JP Crawford and downgrading his potential has become a common media theme in recent weeks. But does his performance since a week on the DL indicate that he’s a young guy who was pressing and just needed a break and is now reverting to the mean for someone with his natural talent?
Keith Law: I can’t and won’t speak to what anyone else might have said about him. I can tell you I am getting consistent, negative feedback from scouts who’ve seen him, saying he’s swinging too far uphill and isn’t playing the same caliber of defense as in the past.

Jon V : What are your early thoughts on Zimmer at the major league level?
Keith Law: I think he’s been as expected – solid vs RHP, atrocious vs LHP.

fortekay: Klaw! Thomas Nido made the futures game and Pat Mazeika is having a big offensive year (even if he’s a bit older for the league). Either long term options at Catcher?
Keith Law: Nido at least as a backup. Mazeika less. Hasn’t held up since the hot start and he’s too old for A-ball.

Jake: Buxton seems to have figured some things out. Swing looks shorter, eliminating some holes. Have you seen the changes and do you think they are sustainable?
Keith Law: I do think so – better swing decisions, better contact in the zone.

John: Hey Keith. Anything new to report on Alec Hansen. Was looking at his numbers and he is just dominating guys. But that is reading the stat line. Do you think he has legit #1 upside or more like 2 or 3?
Keith Law: He dominated guys in low-A, where he was last year, and has been fair in 3 high-A starts. Stuff is huge, command not there yet.

Evan: Is it time to start worrying about Thomas Szapucki with his injuries?
Keith Law: No.

Mike Mitchell: Is there an argument for the Astros to do nothing? They have 5 of the top 57 in Baseball America’s update. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Long window. Why shorten it?
Keith Law: I think the argument for pushing now is that they may never be this good again in the window, even if they have other good years. It’s rare to be in this comfortable a position in July, so Luhnow can patch around the edges and focus on acquisitions likely to improve their October odds.

Your fan: Healy not likely to be an average MLB regular? that’s a bit of a surprise……
Keith Law: It’s a surprise that a bad defensive 3b with a .304 OBP isn’t an average regular?

Matthew: Can we talk about Jose Ramirez? You seemed to be higher on him than most (IIRC, he was on a “just missed” top 100 list), but I don’t think anyone saw this coming, right? Last 365 days, 144 wRC+???
Keith Law: He was on a just missed list, then wasn’t eligible the next year when he might have made the list, but no, I would never have forecasted this kind of star-level offense from him. Thought he’d be a good player, but if I thought he’d be this, I would have been way more aggressive.

Paul: I’ve been really excited reading the box scores for Gohara this year. I watched him for the first time last night, and I’d read that he was large, but he’s even bigger than I thought. Can that body work and hold up as a big league starter?
Keith Law: I’m not concerned about the body as much as the fact that he’s been throwing so hard at such a young age. I guess eventually he could have knee and back issues from his size – he looks like CC Sabathia already – but for now it’s just arm health and command that I’d focus on .

Derek: Brian Goodwin has been playing well at the MLB level recently. Has the former top-75 prospect regained some of his luster? What do you expect going forward? Related, who do you like more for the Nats in 2018 – Goodwin or Michael A. Taylor (who also has been hitting well, though may be coasting on some BABIP fuel). MAT can clearly stick in CF. Can Goodwin? So far the arm looks plus but what about Goodwin’s range?
Keith Law: I think there’s some SSS going on with Goodwin, but at least he’s turning on good fastballs again. I’d like to know where his speed went – dude was a plus runner as an amateur. Would probably bet on Taylor over Goodwin going forward.

Derek: The Nats aren’t foolish enough to give up Robles for a reliever, are they? Soto, too, has to be untouchable in a reliever trade, right?
Keith Law: Don’t think Robles is going anywhere. Soto’s intriguing but the guy has barely played this year and is still on the DL (now rehabbing in the GCL). If he’s untouchable too, what do they have left to make a big move? I think that’s tantamount to saying you’re not going to swing a Miller/Chapman type of trade.

Evan: What are you thoughts on Mets first rounder David Peterson?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter type. Big groundball guy, deception, average fastball, can really pitch – feel, command, control. Thought he was a little light for a first-round pick but I think the industry as a whole valued him in the top 20.

Joe: I’m assuming Ryan Mountcastle ends up in the OF but how good of a prospect would he be if he hypothetically played just average defense at SS?
Keith Law: If he were capable of playing average D at short he probably wouldn’t hit like he does.

Mike M: Is J.B. Bukauskas a top 100 guy? The Astros sure love drafting electric two-pitch guys and insisting on starting them.
Keith Law: He’ll probably be on the back of the list; anyone I’ve ranked in the top 10 in a draft class who has signed right away has made a subsequent top 100 barring something catastrophic (like surgery).

Ryan: I keep hearing Cards draft pick Fuller being referred to as “intriguing.” Do you have any additional insight on him?
Keith Law: I wrote him up in the Cards draft report. There’s some Larry Green comparisons there.

Jay: Planning a board game night with my 6 year old son and some of his friends. Some suggestions?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride would be appropriate for that age. Mole Rats in Space is a great coop game that you could probably play with them, just giving them a little guidance.

BobbyL: Can Juan Soto make a jump into top 20 range by the end of the season
Keith Law: I said this last week too – people in general want their own prospects to be too high. Look at the typical top 20: it’s guys who are performing at a huge level for their ages, guys who were very high picks/big bonus kids, or otherwise guys with plus tools.

Logan: If you’re the Jays, 4.5 back in the WC, do you sell or buy at the deadline?
Keith Law: Probably sell.

Isaac: Have you had a chance to see Maitan yet, any initial reactions other than his original write ups. Obviously he just got in games, but hadn’t heard anything from extended
Keith Law: I haven’t. I think he’s played 2-3 games.

Al : Really enjoyed the podcast yesterday. You’re truly great in that format. What can your readers do to get you a regular podcast?
Keith Law: Thank you – it was great to be at the helm and to get back together with Eric. ESPN doesn’t run many podcasts, however; they’ve decided at a corporate level that it’s not an area for investment.

Matt: The Orioles appear to not be signing Conlon. How does that happen? Don’t they agree to a number prior to the selection?
Keith Law: Sometimes one side or the other changes their minds post-draft. Also, it sounds like they’re going to go way over for Cameron Bishop, a UC-Irvine starter who missed the whole spring with a strained oblique* but has been dealing on the Cape with an average fastball and two plus secondary pitches. (*Bishop strains his oblique and doesn’t pitch for four months. Clarke Schmidt at South Carolina strains his oblique, misses one start, comes back to throw 100+ pitches a few times and then blows out his elbow. Weird.)

Jason: Fair to say that the whole “voter fraud” phenomenon is the Rs way of trying to insulate against the coming demographic wave that (if they don’t change their message) is going to wash over them?
Keith Law: I interpret it as “we’re going to purge voter rolls of people who aren’t likely to vote for us.”

fortekay: Best Futures Game prospect no one has really heard of?
Keith Law: Yordan Alvarez.

Dave: How is Greene not signed yet? Chances he doesn’t sign?
Keith Law: Doesn’t matter until the deadline. I believe he’ll sign.

Larry: As a University of Florida baseball fan, I’m curious your thoughts on Brady McConnell. I know he was a top-100 draft prospect, but what kind of player is he?
Keith Law: More tools/athleticism than performance. Could develop into a first-rounder if he hits, but I saw a guy who couldn’t wait to swing at the first strike he saw.

John: There’s been plenty of talk about Rosario; but, how far away is Dom Smith? September? 2018? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ready this fall, but I’m sure the Mets will wait a good three or four more years just to be on the safe side.

AJ: Have you heard anything about Jesus Luzardo recently? Eric Longenhagen said he was throwing in the mid 90s.
Keith Law: I believe it. He was doing that pre-injury too.

Mark: Hi Keith – my sister is moving to Milan and I’m looking to get her some (translated) Italian novels as a parting gift. So far my ideas are The Betrothed (Manzoni), The Leopard (Tomasi), and Christ Stopped at Eboli (Levi). Do you have any (other) recommendations that give nice background/introduction on Italian/Milanese culture? Thanks!
Keith Law: Perhaps the Elena Ferrante novels? I also liked Alessandro Piperno’s books, but they are weird and in some ways a little testosterone-fueled like Portnoy’s Complaint (Roth is a clear influence).

Tye: Would someone like Stroman, Gray, or Archer be a reasonable get for the Twins?
Keith Law: It makes absolutely no sense for the Twins to trade prospects for major-league help right now.

Your fan: One thing that surprised me about your book is that you didn’t discuss the value of traditional scouting more as online you’re a big advocate for those skills.
Keith Law: I gave scouting a whole chapter in a book about analytics.

Will: Lucas Sims still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Yes, more likely than starter.

Tye: Has Zack Granite changed his prospect status from fringe prospect to an actual one with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.

Mike M: K. Tucker, Franklin Perez and Martes for Gerrit Cole. Who says no?
Keith Law: Doubt the Astros would consider that. Tucker is ridiculously good for his age. Actually, so is Perez.

romorr: Cedric Mullins a future regular, or 4th OFer?
Keith Law: Probably a fourth OF but a real (nonzero) chance he’s a regular. Kind of undersized but strong for his build.

Morris: We all got a chuckle out of bookcase-gate. But it wasn’t really funny at all – the guy got on your case because he’s an Oregon State fan that didn’t like what you said about Luke Heimlich. That seems incredibly dangerous to me – the rush to defend someone who molested a girl aged 4-6 because he’s good at baseball.
Keith Law: I saw some of his other tweets about Heimlich and he was kind of a truther – not denying the crime, but handwaving it away as something that’s over, that no one should be concerned about going forward, which at the very least is a naive interpretation of events about which none of us knows very much at all.

Steve: How concerned are you over Anderson Espinoza’s lingering injury? How much of it is legitimate worry about a smaller pitcher who throws that hard, albeit with an easy delivery? How much might be the Padres just trying to manage his innings?
Keith Law: He’s not small, but I wonder if they’re delaying the inevitable here. He’s going to miss the entire summer anyway.

Scott: What should oakland do with Alonso? Is he an ok guy to offer something like 3/36 to?
Keith Law: Age 30, so no, I wouldn’t.

Steve: What do you think of the O’s strategy to sell off all of their international signing pool money?
Keith Law: I think it’s awful but it’s par for the course for that org. You can’t ignore an entire swath of the player pool and suffer no consequences.

Jason: Talk dirty to me about Fernando Tatis. Star or Superstar?
Keith Law: I would say ‘likely’ to star with a chance to be a superstar. Scouts are all in. I saw him in March and physically he reminds me a lot of Machado at that age.

Greg: Is it time for the Pirates to move Chad Kuhl to the bullpen?
Keith Law: If they have a better option for the spot, yes. I don’t think Kuhl can start, never did.

Johnny O: Chance Adams? I can only scout the stat line but he’s been promoted to AAA and jumped into BA’s midseason top 100. What have you seen/heard about him?
Keith Law: Performer, not big ceiling, get very mixed opinions from scouts, definitely a big league starter.

Nick: Thanks for the continued hard work, Keith. Have you hard anything more about Lucas Giolito’s mechanics and delivery?
Keith Law: Mechanics largely back to where they were and his velocity is up again. Just not consistent start to start like he needs to be.

Steve: I once hit a homerun in Little League the day after we got our flu shots. So flu shots must cause power breakouts. I’ll make a YouTube video and soon everyone will agree.
Keith Law: If you ever want to see some of the most facepalm-inducing arguments ever, check out that mammoth vaccine/anti-vax Twitter thread I’m on. The denialists are the best cherrypickers I’ve ever seen, on top of their innumeracy and inability to distinguish correlation from causation.

Devin: What should the Brewers do? Stand pat and see if they can still win the division?Trade a top 100 prospect for Quintana? Weird since they are technically still in a rebuild.
Keith Law: I think so. Can’t sell if you’re in first place, right? What a terrible message to the fans. But I wouldn’t buy, especially not with several major prospects (Ray, Clark, Erceg) having disappointing years.

Tom: So last year it was Brach, this year it’s LeMahieu… actually, my question is, why do you think Andrelton Simmons didn’t get any consideration for the AL team? If nothing else, he’s sporting a 3.4 WAR this year which makes him equal with Trout (shut up).
Keith Law: Simmons should probably be an All-Star regular, but his value is so much on the defensive side that he’s rarely recognized for what he is.

Justin: The cable industry is failing, ESPN is just caught in the tailspin. Eventually the cable industry with have to make adjustments.
Keith Law: I agree with that. Can ESPN sell directly to consumers via an app and streaming package? I don’t know, but I think we need to try that, as do most cable channels.

Guest: Any chance you have gotten to see Domingo Acevedo this year? Do you think he has a future as a starter?
Keith Law: Last year. Not with that delivery he doesn’t.

BEN : Is Yordan Alvarez a top 10 1b prospect, even if that’s not that much
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit.

Matt: You might not remember this, but last year I asked you about Kingerys potential and you said Altuve with more power. I thought you were crazy because no scouts said Kingery would develop power. I just wanted to say that, you sir, are very good at what you do.
Keith Law: Sometimes I get something right.

Aaron: What does this injury do to Torres? Will he still become a star?
Keith Law: Not worried about it. It sucks for us, and maybe pushes back his arrival by a few months, but he’s still going to be a star.

John: What do you make of the Rays’ failure to sign Rasmussen? Who, pardon the pun, dropped the ball here?
Keith Law: Because the player didn’t participate in the predraft voluntary MRI process, he loses the protection granted by rule 4 if, hypothetically, the Rays found something wrong with his arm in their post-draft physical. (I must be very clear that no one has told me what, if anything, they found.) So the Rays can walk away and still get same-slot compensation, while Rasmussen has to re-enter the draft next year rather than gaining free agency. Do I blame anyone? I think the lesson is that there’s a benefit to submitting an MRI pre-draft if MLB includes you in that program – had he done so, and whatever team took him declined to offer him the minimum for that slot, he would have gained free agency. But Griffin Canning submitted an MRI, and whatever was on it – supposedly he might need TJ surgery – was enough to knock him out of the first round completely.

Joe: Can Rutherford or Frazier play cf or is Fowler the CF of the future for Yankees?
Keith Law: Rutherford and Frazier are corner outfielders only.

Will: Speaking of Karsten Whitson, what do you make of Kyle Serrano’s situation? Talented pitcher turns down $$$ to play for his dad, has an underwhelming college career+TJ, and then leaves the team in his final season for personal reasons but just signed an overslot deal with Houston.
Keith Law: “Overslot” was $200K. He turned down seven figures out of HS. If you’re a pitcher and you get that kind of offer, take the money.

Jake: No chance for R. Lewis to stay at short? Nick Gordon?
Keith Law: Gordon is a true SS. Lewis has no chance IMO.

Reds Fan: Why Herget over Mahle in the Futures game? Please explain this to me.
Keith Law: I think you’re taking that a little too seriously. Herget’s really good as a reliever – and putting one or two good relievers on each roster is a good plan, IMO, given the nature of the game and the fact that every year we get someone who comes in and can’t get an out (or throw a strike).

Nate : Keith, how frequently are you speaking with scouts on players? Daily, Weekly
Keith Law: Daily is about right.

Your fan: do you ever film when scouting? If so, what equipment do you use?
Keith Law: Always, HD-quality sony camera (so we can use the footage on air).

Steve: Since you saw Brito recently, did you get any eyes on Jojo Romero?
Keith Law: No, I saw Medina, great arm, really loose, not very polished but the breaking ball is in there.

Moltar: Who names all three of their kids Wander? Is he lost?
Keith Law: I think this is a custom in some countries/cultures – same first name, differing middle names – although I’m not certain.

Dan: What’s your projection for Derek Fisher? Is he a regular as a corner OF?
Keith Law: Yes, potentially a star.

Ryan: I read Delvij Perez was upset about being sent to a short season team and then he was benched for throwing his helmet after a K or something silly like that. Add on the steroid test, are there real makeup issues at play there?
Keith Law: There were real makeup issues pre-draft too. Lot of reports of immaturity. Got in a yelling match with an opposing coach once before the draft. He needs to grow up.

Greg: Keith, my brother is having a tough time. 25, unemployed, living at home. He never smiles and only responds to our parents with yes/no answers. I think he’s depressed but it’s impossible to talk to him about it. Any advice?
Keith Law: Sounds like it. Any chance you could get him to talk to a doctor? Even his primary care doc might have something to offer.

Dan: Do you do a midseason prospect rankings update?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll be up on Thursday, and that’s why I’ve avoided some questions about players who’ll be on it.

Paul: Hey Keith – you’ve probably been asked this before, so forgive me if I’ve missed it, but have you ever thought about creating a board game? Or maybe if not creating from scratch, co-creating or consulting on one? Now that you’ve written a book (one that I loved, by the way), it seems like that should be next!
Keith Law: Yes, of course, but I wonder if I know the math/modeling aspects enough to do it well.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you for all of the questions, as always, and I hope to see many of you this weekend in Miami. I’ll be back to chat again next week once the midyear top 50 is up.

My Insider post looking at the top free agents in the international class is now up. Also, did you know I wrote a book, called Smart Baseball? I did. I hear it might even be good.

Keith Law: Let’s shock the world with what we know. Klawchat.

Adam: What is a realistic ceiling for Juan Soto?
Keith Law: Funny you ask. I’ll be seeing him tonight at 7 pm at Lakewood.

Billy Beane: Who was more upside, Anderson Espinoza or Sixto Sanchez?
Keith Law: If healthy, Espinoza, by quite a bit. But he’s not healthy and Sixto is.

Adam: Chris Rodriguez seems to be skyrocketing up prospect lists. What about him stands out and just how high do you see him rising?
Keith Law: He isn’t “skyrocketing” up any of my lists. I heard he looked good in extended, but those are glorified practice games. He’s gotten bombed in two actual starts this year. He was a pop-up kid in Florida in last year’s draft, very projectable, started to show more velocity this spring, still a work in progress.

Mason: Will Gregory Polanco ever figure it out?
Keith Law: I think he figured a lot out last year. I don’t think he’s a .264 BABIP guy (his figure this year).

CJ: How many career games will it take for Nick Williams to earn his first walk?
Keith Law: I’ll answer this: I think it’ll take at least 50 games for him to draw his 10th walk (unless they bat him right before the pitcher, that’s cheating).

Sloth: Higher ceiling – Barreto or Chapman?
Keith Law: Barreto, with Chapman, a 70 defender at third right now, having the higher floor than Barreto, who still may end up at another position.

Bob: Luis Castillo was very impressive against Milwaukee this week. Specifically, that looked like a plus changeup and he sat 97-99 all game. Future two perhaps?
Keith Law: Not without a better breaking ball, which is going to be hard for him given his arm action/slot.

Jennifer: Do the Braves have a solid argument/reason to make a move now for a front-line, cost-controlled starter that will help next year and the year after or are they still better off waiting?
Keith Law: If the right one is available, sure, but I have a feeling if they call on someone like Sonny Gray the price is going to be exorbitant because wouldn’t you ask Atlanta for the moon?
Keith Law: I guess that’s me saying I doubt they end up doing that.

G: It seemed like Calvin Mitchell’s stock dropped a good amount in the past 10 months or so. Were his problems mechanical? His swing looked nice in the HR in his first GCL game.
Keith Law: He didn’t hit well all spring, and when your only tool is your bat, and scouts come see you not hit, it’s kind of a problem.

Anthony: There are myriad teams in the AL technically “in the race.” Who of KC, SEA, TEX, ANA, TOR, BAL should be selling?
Keith Law: I can’t see the Angels selling, and unless the Orioles are willing to sell Machado I don’t know that it makes a ton of sense for them. The Royals and Mariners should probably sell. The others probably should wait another 2-3 weeks before deciding. A 2-10 or 10-2 fortnight can change your strategy.

Adam: Is there anything left for Vlad Jr and Bichette to prove offensively in Low-A? Their numbers are ridiculous even when comparing them to a similarly vaunted prospect like Tatis Jr.
Keith Law: I would move Bichette before Vlad, since Bo’s a year older. I don’t think it’s imperative that Vlad move right away.

Bertil: Do you think Astros should switch positions for Correa and Bergman? And if so, when?
Keith Law: I do, now, but I don’t think it happens.

Jay: Just got back from Phoenix. Thanks for all the food and drink recommendations. They were all incredible. Blue Hound especially!
Keith Law: It’s a better food town than its reputation would indicate.

Raphael: How outlandish is it to believe that Vladdy Jr is the #1 prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: It’s 80 on the 20-80 outlandish scale. You must be a Jays fan.

Chad: Has Jorge Ona been dissapointing, or is he doing fine (despite being 20 yrs old in A-ball)
Keith Law: He’s doing fine.

nb: Keith – Been a horrible season here in Philly. I need some good news. What have you seen or heard about Sixto Sanchez? Thanks!
Keith Law: Throwing very hard (regularly topping out at 99) with plus control but fringy to below average secondary stuff.

Adam D.: Should I be excited about what Brian Reynolds is doing at High-A, or skeptical because he is a college guy playing in an offense-friendly league against young(ish) competition?
Keith Law: I’d like to see more power and walks, really. San Jose hasn’t historically been good for home runs, but I’m surprised he isn’t walking more.

Pat: Mitch K. or Walker B. ?
Keith Law: It helps if you give me the last names. If that’s Mitch Keller, I have him ranked well above Walker Buehler.

Casey: Rockies have lost 8 straight… do you think they have the pitching to make the playoffs?
Keith Law: The odds of them missing the playoffs are pretty low, given how far ahead they are in the standings. I don’t think they have the pitching to do much in the playoffs, but that’s another question.

Jeff: Bellinger’ future average will look like? Sub .280 due to aggressive nature of swing?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you’re referring to about his swing, but I think his feel for the zone is so advanced that he’ll gradually get up to high batting averages and OBPs.

Josh in DC: What are you feelings about Red Sox’ trade for Tyler Thornburg? With full hindsight, it’s as bad a trade as one can imagine. But it still made sense (to me, anyway) at the time. How do you evaluate something like this?
Keith Law: I agree, it made sense on the day they made it. And really, Shaw’s having a great season, but he’s still a platoon player (.293 OBP vs lefties) and is already 27. It’s not like they gave up a top prospect.

Emily: Hi Keith,

I don’t have a question, but as someone who has suffered with depression, I was just hoping you could share this link with your readers. I came across an article today about someone sharing the story of their own battles with depression and how baseball has helped them through it.

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/30/staying-in-the…
Keith Law: Thank you. The more we talk about mental illness, the more we reduce the stigma around it.

Sam: Yandy Diaz…Where do you see him long term?
Keith Law: Think he ends up a regular at 3b.

Casey: Ever had any roommate conflicts?
Keith Law: I’ve been married for 22 years, so, yeah, a few.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Soto is on the DL, dammit.
Keith Law: Dammit is right – I didn’t even check the rosters.

Chris: It doesn’t seem like many people believed Bo Bichette had this in him. Can he keep it up, and where would he fall in your top 100 today?
Keith Law: I’ve always liked him and spoken well of his bat, but really, if anyone thought he’d do this, he would have been a top ten pick last year, and even I didn’t argue for that. I’ll do an updated top 50 after the Futures Game and I assume he’ll be on it – but I haven’t actually sat down to make up the list, so I reserve the right to change my mind.

Joe: What do you think about the Cardinals sending guys down to the minors to work out their swings; such as Grichuk and others? Is this a good thing or a sign that the major league coaching staff isn’t able to help them?
Keith Law: I would think it’s easier to alter a swing in the minors than it is while your MLB club is trying to win. Also, his issue is less his swing and more his chronic problems with recognizing offspeed stuff.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Thoughts on Daniel Johnson? He’ll be at Lakewood too–would love a report!
Keith Law: Watson is pitching too, plus Adonis Medina throwing for Lakewood … should be a productive night anyway.

Levi: What does an Andrew McCutchen trade return look like at this point? Seems like a 4 WAR bat in left field
Keith Law: He didn’t seem like a 4 WAR bat in left field a month ago, so I wouldn’t expect a trade return to value him as such. I think he gets them a couple of mid-level prospects.

Guy Smiley: With Gurriel Jr., the recent draftees, and the on-fire Bichette in the Jays’ system, is Urena the odd SS out? What’s he worth as trade bait?
Keith Law: Bichette isn’t staying at short, and I wouldn’t bank on G(o)urriel just yet.

Casey: Is Anthony Banda in Arizona minors anything special? A 3?
Keith Law: A 4 with a chance to be a 3.

Guest: Why can’t Nats fans have nice things? Is it because of the whole relocation from Montreal? We didn’t actively solicit the team or steal the team like some other cities, release us from this curse fickle Baseball tyrants.
Keith Law: Well Baltimore stole an NFL team from Cleveland, only to have them win two Super Bowls, so I’m going to say that the fates don’t seem to care about morality in sports franchise success.

Iggy: New QOTSA song, yay or nay?
Keith Law: Yay, it’s on my latest new music playlist.

Rob K: Could any Mets with expiring contracts (Bruce, Asdrubal, Grandy, Walker, Addison Reed, Duda, Reyes) bring anything back that could help the team in 2018? Keep in mind the Wilpons will eat zero money.
Keith Law: Bruce might get something now that he’s hitting again. Reed would. Reyes they can fire into the sun for all I care.

Braves Fan: They say you can never have too much pitching but are the Braves getting close? It seems like every level has multiple good prospects
Keith Law: No, because you’re already seeing some of the attrition, like Weigel getting hurt.

Mike: In the end Lindor, Correa, or Seager?
Keith Law: Oooof. Seager’s the best bat, but Lindor is probably the best all-around player including defense and baserunning. Except the bunting. Stop bunting.

Vic: Does Mountcastle stick at short? Enough bat to play left?
Keith Law: Zero chance he sticks at short. Maybe on LF. I was hoping he or Austin Hays (more Hays) would make the Futures Game, rather than Tanner Scott, who throws hard but is just a reliever in the end.

Taylor: Most upside out of Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar, and Dustin Fowler (get well soon)?
Keith Law: Fowler or Andujar. What a horrible, freak injury for the kid.

Matt: Given the trajectory of Cubs’ season, should they be aggressive with their inventory of prospects to acquire a controllable, young SP?
Keith Law: Yes – and I said in April on the BBTN podcast that I believe that’s been their plan all along. Maybe not young, but with years of control.

SJ: Rabbit-cocktail sounding name aside, does Victor Caratini project as a league average catcher or is he destined for another position?
Keith Law: OK, now he’s Victor Carrot-ini forever. I had him as more a multi-position UT who can also be your backup catcher, so maybe a guy who’s more valuable because he essentially frees up a roster spot than his performance might indicate.

Kevin: I know we are less than ecstatic about comps but is Kyle Wright a strong one for Brady Singer? I couldn’t help but conclude that during the CWS. Wright is a tick or two higher with velo and a deeper repertoire while Singer has the better breaking ball. Thoughts? Thoughts on the Florida fireballer?
Keith Law: Don’t think Singer has a better breaking ball, and he has a worse arm action. I saw them pitch against each other in April; Singer was 90-91 all night, Wright 92-96. Singer has thrown harder since then, and I did see him 92-95 in a short start as a freshman, but I don’t think he’s close to Wright as a starter prospect.

Brad: How soon do you think before you think we’ll be seeing Devers man the hot corner in Boston? Just after the ASB, or will he be a September call-up? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think he gets up in September, but why is he still in AA? He should be in Pawtucket to try to get him more ready for a callup.

Pat D: If someone is going to write, “Considering Frazier’s perceived bravado, could Frazier have asked for a Yankees number to be unretired? Yeah, it’s possible.” should I ever read that person’s work again? This is kind of thing that it seems only a sportswriter can get away with, and I find it infuriating.
Keith Law: I would not read that person’s work again, no. That’s basically the “you have to ask the question” backhanded accusation bullshit we’ve seen with bogus PED claims. It makes me insane.

JoeNathan: Hey Keith, I just wanted to say thank you again for signing my book and I enjoyed our chat. I wanted to ask you about what you meant when you said that you would be much further along with your career had you started 5 years earlier? Was that a comment on the landscape of MLB offices at the time or something else?
Keith Law: I was referring to the benefit of experience seeing players to my ability to evaluate players.

Tony: Do you ever read a book where you can definitely see why it’s considered “great,” but it’s not necessarily good? I’m about 2/3 of the way through EAST OF EDEN and struggling. I respect it as a work of literature, but I’m not sure I actually like it.
Keith Law: All the time. I’ve commented on some of the Pulitzer winners I’ve read that I understand why they won but didn’t enjoy them.

nb: Keith – Just bought the book and it’s set to be my beach reading next week. Are you planning on ant Trenton trips soon? Book can use an autograph. Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m sure I’ll be there again soon, but I don’t plan minor league trips more than a few days in advance because of weather and pitching matchups.

Mike Maddux: Over/under 200 Ks for Giolito next year with him discovering his old form after I screwed him up?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under, but I think he’s eventually a 200 K guy.

Rob K: Do teams really avoid trades that otherwise make sense if it’s with a division rival? Is that wise?
Keith Law: I think that is going by the wayside with the changes in front offices around the game.

Arin, D-town: Is Scott Kingery a future starter or utility guy?
Keith Law: Come on, he’s at least an above average everyday 2b. I just wrote and raved about him a week ago.

AJ: Fernando Tatis Jr comp?
Keith Law: I don’t do comps, sorry … but I will say that I think he’s modeling himself a bit after Manny Machado. He does have a similar frame to Manny at 18, and it looked like he’s adopted some of Manny’s actions and mannerisms. That’s a pretty good guy to imitate.

Asdrubal: Think Duplantier could crack the top 100 this year?
Keith Law: He’s just dominating younger competition. I liked the pick a lot and it’s great to see him healthy, but he needs to get to high-A or even AA now that he’s rolling.

Guest: Hi Keith! Any updates on Morejon and Espinoza of the Padres?
Keith Law: Morejon’s been pitching for Tri-City in the Northwest League. Espinoza is just playing catch and I don’t know if we’ll see him at all this summer.

Juwan: To your mind, did Anthony Rendon live up to your pre-draft eval? Some analysts predicted that he’d win a batting title or two, and he hasn’t quite been that level of hitter, but he’s been red hot for 50 games now and he’s stacked together multiple very solid seasons.
Keith Law: Fangraphs has him at 17 career WAR already, so I’d say yes, he’s living up to it, and he’ll end up a great pick at 6th overall.

Eric: Is Luis Urias a top 20 prospect now?
Keith Law: No. I feel like when people ask “is my favorite team’s prospect in the top X now,” the instinct is to make X too low. Top 20 is ridiculously selective.

Gerard: How did Z Collins get in the Futures game this year?
Keith Law: Getting enough catchers is hard.

Chris: Nick Williams from Phils just called up… he anything good?
Keith Law: See above. Has raw power, some tools, chronically undisciplined at the plate.

John S: Any reason to believe that Lamet should stay in the rotation? His numbers against lefties have been… bad. But, four of his six starts have been better than any other padre this season
Keith Law: It won’t hurt his development to get smacked around by lefties as a starter, but he can’t remain one long-term without a viable third pitch.

Dylan: Is there anything preventing Francisco Mejia from being the top prospect in baseball? His bat at catcher just seems so absurdly good, I’m not sure what the comparison is outside of the elite.
Keith Law: He’s not that advanced a defensive catcher.

Arnie: When the Astros picked up Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields, I assumed he was a marginal or (non-) prospect. Is there real prospect value there beyond his loud stat line?
Keith Law: He’s legit, no question. Dodgers had given him $3 million, I think.

Andy: Urias going out with a shoulder issue like this is really bad right?
Keith Law: With *that* shoulder issue, yes. That’s heavy surgery. Definitely bad.

JC: Is Flaherty for real, or just having a great year? What does he project to be in the majors?
Keith Law: Been on my top 100 the last two winters. Command/control right-hander, durable, maybe more mid-rotation than top two but still very good.

Ed: Can we stop pretending moderate republicans exist? Can we stop pretending they are going to save us?
Keith Law: That’s not fair. They exist. They’re just not anywhere to be found in the federal government right now.

Mark: What % chance would you give to each Acuna, Allard, and Soroka being September call ups?
Keith Law: Zero or effectively zero to all three.

David: Have you read any good nonfiction recently ?
Keith Law: I just finished a great audiobook, Dancing to the Glory of Monsters by Jason Stearns, right before I pulled into the parking lot here. It’s about the series of wars in the DR of the Congo since 1990, and tries to get at why the country is such a disaster. I also loved Ed Yong’s I Contain Multitudes, about the microbiome, which I reviewed in March.

Josh: David Lynch fan? If so, wondering your thoughts if you’ve seen the Twin Peaks revival
Keith Law: Not a huge fan. Haven’t seen the revival.

MP, San Jose: Who is the pitcher on the cover of your book, and why that pitcher in particular?
Keith Law: Stock photo.

Vic: Does Franklin Perez make it to Houston by 2020?
Keith Law: I would guess 2019.

Dave: Can Josh Bell be a top 5 first baseman in the game?
Keith Law: Probably not? But I had to think about it. I do think he’s going to be very good, and if he really unlocks all that raw power in games, then he probably could be.

Tom: Tyler Glasgow – starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Ah dinnae ken.

Robert: What happened to AJ Reed? Does he still have a shot to fulfill last year’s promise?
Keith Law: Zero adjustments in big leagues. They throw offspeed stuff for strikes in the majors. He’s going to have to figure out how to adjust to that.

Tom: Kevin Newman going to hit enough to be an everyday player?
Keith Law: He’s been disappointing this year, especially since he was hit in the head by a pitch about 5-6 weeks ago. I would have said yes without hesitation in March, and he’s still making a lot of contact, but scouts have told me it’s just not hard enough contact.

Tim: You’ve been relatively modest about your long time praise of Judge, but even from the get go during your draft review, you were extremely positive about him. What’s more rewarding for you, on guys that you are high on? An immediate breakout like Judge or late bloomers like Hicks and Smoak?
Keith Law: Smoak is beyond “late,” so I can’t take credit for that one, but it is gratifying when a guy like Judge or Hicks becomes the player I thought he could be, especially if I was higher than the industry was (e.g., having Judge ranked higher than where he was drafted – same is true for Kingery, whom I had as a late first round talent).

Brian: Nathan’s hot dogs and bud heavy on the menu for the KLAW July 4th cookout?
Keith Law: I don’t really eat beef any more but I do have a sentimental soft spot for Nathan’s.

Josh in DC: It’s interesting that you’d judge the Thornburg trade by noting Travis Shaw isn’t a “top prospect.” The fact is, the Red Sox need a third baseman for THIS season. The Sox already HAVE a top prospect at third base. Aren’t you undervaluing the importance of the present season in judging this trade?
Keith Law: He’s a below-average defensive third baseman, so, no, I’m not.

Andy: Now that we’re actually in negotiating season, is there any picks that you’re hearing have raised their bonus demands that there is a question about signing before the deadline?
Keith Law: Nope. Assume everyone in the top ten rounds will sign unless someone fails his physical.

Jason: Any concerns about Jahmai Jones’ struggles this year?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in low A, making plenty of contact, don’t think I’d say he’s “struggled,” just hasn’t blown up.

Ed: Tell me that the Cubs aren’t trading Jiminez for any rentals this year.
Keith Law: I think – but have no inside info – that he’ll be the one guy they won’t deal, unless they were getting some star young pitcher with years of control left. I don’t think Stroman is or would be available, but if he were, that’s a guy I’d deal Eloy for.

Damien: In honor of the Buerhle jersey retirement, is he solidly in the “Hall of Very Good”? Could a few more productive years have garnered him serious HOF consideration?
Keith Law: He never had HoF peak for me. Just longevity, which makes him HoVG.

Jason: What percent of the increase in home runs this year do you attribute to changes in the baseball?
Keith Law: I’ll leave that to the experts, like Rob Arthur, who’s done some great work on the topic.

Ryan D: Has your opinion on Jordan Montgomery changed? I know SSS, but he looks like a solid 4 sp this year, or do you still think he ends up in the pen long term?
Keith Law: He might be a back-end starter. It’s still pretty average stuff across the board, but he’s throwing everything for strikes enough that I would revise him up to ‘starter.’

Tony: In your chat last week, you mentioned that a scout said JP Crawford’s swing changed. Is this a case of a launch angle change gone bad?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I think the kid is overswinging right now to try to hit for power he probably doesn’t have.

Jason: Is Chris shaw starting in San Francisco by the trading deadline?
Keith Law: Meh. Not a big believer in his bat.

Rob K: I know you don’t like talking about Tebow, but: does his promotion High A over AA (where he’d be downright embarrassed by good breaking stuff) mean we’ll see 2 years of this sideshow?
Keith Law: As long as he’s willing to play (and get his cut of jersey sales), we’ll see this sideshow.

hg: how was your trip to Toronto. Get to any restaurants? has the city changed, in your opinion, since your last visit?
Keith Law: Pitch Talks was a lot of fun, but I didn’t get to explore at all due to time constraints. My one good rec was Sorry Coffee on Bloor, which is excellent.

Vic: Odds of Josh Ockimey being a productive 1B?
Keith Law: Low, not zero, maybe 20%.

JC: Thoughts on the Mo/Girsch move today?
Keith Law: These tend to be paper moves, so I wouldn’t think anything of it until we see any real operational changes.

Nate: What would you say the chances are the White Sox trade Q…60/40?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I think they should shop him aggressively, but they don’t *have* to trade him.

Mike: With Terry Collins likely retiring after this year, do you have any early favorites as far as who the Mets should interview to replace him?
Keith Law: Judging by his work, I thought he already retired.

Christian: Any update on Willie Calhoun’s defense? Bat is certainly holding up fine
Keith Law: This sounds like wishful thinking. He’s almost certainly a DH.

John: Why would it be that Bogaerts doesn’t hit for power these days?
Keith Law: More generally, why doesn’t he make hard contact? He was a power prospect when he was still a teenager. I don’t understand how or when he made that tradeoff.

Zach : Hey Keith, How quickly so you think Brendan Rodgers moves through the Rockies system? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think he’s going to have a big adjustment to make in AA now to guys with better secondary stuff. I still rate him very highly, but he hasn’t been challenged much yet, playing in two great hitters’ parks.

John K: Is Mookie Betts a good comp for Scott Kingery?
Keith Law: No, Betts is a borderline MVP, Kingery is … not that.

Steve: Travis Blankenhorn a potential everyday guy?
Keith Law: Yes, although I’m not sure where.

Nick: Is expansion to 32 likely in the next decade?
Keith Law: Depends on whether owners decide they want more money.

Jeff b: Thoughts on Sean Newcombe so far? Had little control at AAA.
Keith Law: Very skeptical that this has improved in the majors just via magic.

Patrick: What’s the ceiling for Christin Stewart? And how close is Jairo Labourt?
Keith Law: Solid average regular in LF; close but likely to be wild in the majors.
Keith Law: OK, my battery is dying and I’m not near an outlet, so I’ll wrap this up. Thank you as always for all of the questions and for joining me for this impromptu chat. I’ll be back next week, almost certainly Thursday, for a pre-Futures Game chat.

Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments!

My latest Insider posts look at which teams may have just drafted their #1 or #2 prospects and at some Phillies, Cleveland, Red Sox, and Astros prospects I’ve scouted recently.

Keith Law: I still find it so hard to say what I need to say. Klawchat.

addoeh: What was the first MLB game you attended?
Keith Law: You’d have to ask my parents that – I definitely remember going to a Mets game when I was around 7 or 8, but it’s possible I went to one (Mets or Yanks) when younger that I don’t recall. But baseball was always on TV in my house.

Josh: My Royals have played themselves squarely into the middle of the pack. Should they trade what they can by the deadline and plan for the future, or should they just play out the string and make everyone QO’s after the season and let guys walk?
Keith Law: Very hard to see a team this bad at getting on base getting to the postseason. And if they don’t sell, they’re going to end up in terrible long-term shape going into 2018, with one of the game’s worst farm systems AND a terrible ML roster.

HankQ: Sean Newcomb has had good success in his first three starts with the braves. That said, his walk rate in the minors has been high, his stuff and walk rate remind me of Mark Langston. Would you say in the best case scenario that Langston’s career would be Newcomb’s upside?
Keith Law: No way. Mark Langston had a 50 WAR, 16-year career. He’s a Hall of the Very Good pitcher. That might be a top 1% outcome for Newcomb.

Eduardo: Which MLB teams have the strongest presence in Brazil? And what do you think about Eric Pardinho? Obrigado. Valéu!
Keith Law: I’ll have a note up on Pardinho and a few other top July 2nd guys – just the elite names – at the end of next week. He did a bunch of events outside Brazil, including the PG event in Jupiter, so every team had a chance to see him. The Rangers, Rays, Mariners, and Jays have all been active in Brazil, but my understanding from scouts (and that great Pedro Moura series of articles from two years ago) is that it’s a very insular, corrupt baseball community there.

Max: 3 months ago Bellinger was, according to everybody, a better prospect than Judge. Who you think will have the better career? (I still think Bellinger will be better, if slightly)
Keith Law: Bellinger by a lot. He’s more than three years younger than Judge, and he’s a 70 defender at first who can also handle centerfield. There’s no comparison for me here – and I think Yankee fans can vouch for my longtime optimism about Judge.

Brad: Knowing that he was just sent to AAA to “clear his head” a bit, do you have any opinions on what Schwarber has done differently this year that has negatively affected his hitting? Chasing too many pitches? Slow bat? He’s been so much better than this thus far in his career…Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t have any good insight to offer on this, sorry.

Dog: Do you think Jonathan Villar’s 2016 was a mirage and his 2015 and 2017 seasons are more reflective of who he is as a player?
Keith Law: I think his 2016 power spike was a mirage. But in 2015, he had just 128 PA – I don’t think that was reflective of anything about him.

Andrew: If you had to re-rank the top three Padres prospects as of today, would there be any change from your pre-season rankings? I believe you had Espinoza, Quantrill, and Margot. Does Tatis crack that group as of today?
Keith Law: I answered this in the link at the top of this chat, on which teams just drafted their new top prospects. San Diego is on there.

Phils Guy: How should a first-time author, who may lack positional assets including name recognition and twitter followers, decide whether to pursue a traditional publisher versus independently publishing an e-book?
Keith Law: My decision was easy – I had access to a literary agent through my regular agent, and when we put a proposal out, a traditional publisher bought it right away. If that’s an option for you, pursue it. The worst that happens is no one bites and you choose to publish yourself.

Ruben Amaro Jr: Keith, the Phillies seem to have a comparatively poor rate relative to MLB in having draft picks contribute at the major league level. Development (see Williams, Nick and Crawford, JP) seems to stagnate, even players on the roster (Franco, for one) don’t seem to break out. Is this a failure to develop talented players, or simply an inability to identify talent in the first place?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s a single cause, and some of those issues cross regimes, too. Williams didn’t stagnate so much as become the player he’s always been. Crawford, on the other hand, is a major concern – I had a scout who saw him this year say he’s “swinging uphill” and covering much less ground at short – and if he isn’t a 60 or better, then who in that system projects as anything more than an average regular?

Preston: Who has a higher ceiling, Sean Newcomb or Kyle Wright?
Keith Law: Wright.

danny: Why are the Braves going far over slot value for Wright? Would he turn down the slot value at #5? (alternative question: Freeman to 3B? Really?)
Keith Law: My guess? That was worked out beforehand, so that Wright would turn down underslot offers at picks 1-4 if any arose. As for Freeman to third … I’m less disturbed by the thought of him playing there than I am the idea that this is to accommodate Matt Freaking Adams.

Adam: Is Alex Verdugo an elite prospect?
Keith Law: He’s really the Joe Flacco of prospects.

Matt: Do you ever write any articles on potential trade candidates and what teams may be targeting them and willing to give up?
Keith Law: No, because I hate reading those articles. They’re kind of bullshit.

James : Hi Keith, Huge fan of your work. I remember you had Luis Carpio as a guy to watch in the Mets system, but then he tore his labrum and missed most of 2016. Is he still someone who piques your interest? Potential top-100 prospect in a couple years or nah?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him this year – weather & travel killed me when Columbia came north, but the good news is I also missed the washed-up quarterback – and reports I’ve had from other scouts say he’s definitely lost something, including throwing, post-injury. I wouldn’t give up on him, but I was hoping for a little more this year.

Chris: I was just reading the piece you linked at the top about prospects from PHI, CLE, BOS, and HOU. About Francisco Mejia you said that, because his pitchers weren’t holding runners very well, he still gave up a couple stolen bases. Has that ever been a real problem for you while scouting: a legit prospect being held back (for lack of a better term) by the talent around him? If a team is made up of 24 org guys and one prospect, does that make it harder to scout him?
Keith Law: No, that was more an explanation of why I would say he’s got a great arm but, hey, they were 2-2 off him stealing that night.

Judlow: Suppose you’re Bobby Evans. (Sorry.) Do you read 2017 as bad dream and push through it retaining core of position players intact? Or are you witnessing in real, excruciating time that Span / Pence done, Crawford / Panik / Belt just not that good? If latter, would you blow up team as much as you could?
Keith Law: Joe Sheehan raised the question of how much they really have to deal if they do blow things up. Cueto is hard to price because of the player option (note: teams should never give out player options, and this is one reason why). Crawford would have value, I think: low-OBP plus defender at short who’ll hit a few mistakes into the seats every year. Lot of teams could use that guy. Shark has very little value in trade, I think, given the contract and inconsistency. So what could you really do?

Neema: Do you think AJ Puk’s performance so far this year is more a reflection of his relatively weaker competition in high Class A or has he made significant improvement since he was drafted? Is he a legitimate top 50 prospect now?
Keith Law: My understanding is that he was overpowering high-A hitters – and that his stuff is consistently better than it was last spring too. So, yeah, I think he’s a little better, but also he needs to face better competition too. Not a top 50 guy at the moment, although I won’t actually assemble a top 50 list until after the Futures Game.

Kris: I read your recent post regarding Phillies prospects. Regarding Pullin and his approach (or lackthereof), I know it’s only one game, but doesn’t his seeing only six pitches in four plate appearances expose a pervasive plate discipline issue within their minor league system? Guys like Cozens, Williams, Alfaro all project a similar lack of patience — and graduates like Franco, Herrera, etc have been exposed at the MLB level by demonstrating this flailing approach.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re really preaching or rewarding patience, but in their defense, how are you going to tell guys like Kingery or Pullin to change their approaches when they’re both raking in AA? Franco would be the one guy in that whole system whom I might argue was allowed to reach the majors without showing sufficient development in his approach … but then he was good his first half-season anyway and it’s possible that his trajectory to this point wouldn’t have been any different.

Andrew: Great timing with scouting notebook including Pullin today – promoted to LHV. Thanks for all your work.
Keith Law: I found that out about a half-hour after the article was posted.

Vin: Is there anything that the stat line isn’t telling us with Ahmed Rosario that is leading Mets mgmt to say he isn’t ready and leaving him in the minors in spite of huge glaring needs and a season rapidly slipping away? What sort of stats can we expect when he is called up?
Keith Law: Any hitter stat line in Vegas may be fool’s gold. I happen to think he can really hit anyway, and he’s a better defender than Cabrera or the domestic abuser, so I don’t know why they won’t call him up.

Dr. Bob: Joe Sheehan ranked Mike Matheny as the last major league manager for tactical managing. Making the sting even worse here in the midwest is that MM finished behind Scioscia, Ausmus, Collins, and Mattingly. Man, if you can’t finish ahead of that group, you are bad.
Keith Law: And I think Joe was spot on. Matheny is really overmatched by in-game tactical decisions. It really shows when he’s managing against one of the better tacticians.

Ron: Could you see Gordon up with the Twins in September and either Polanco or Dozier traded at the deadline? Thanks!
Keith Law: Gordon, no, zero reason for them to do that. Dozier, maybe, but only if they get a sizable return, I think. Again, no real push for them to do so.

Matt: At this point can we assume Dominic Smith is James Loney trapped in a Mo Vaughn-like body? His power numbers in Vegas seem to say “yes”.
Keith Law: That’s not what his numbers seem to say at all.

Sim: I saw your article on drafted players who would be their team’s No. 1 or No. 2 prospect but didn’t see Heliot Ramos on there. Where do you think he’d rank with the Giants?
Keith Law: No higher than third.

kim: Love the chat. Have you been back to TO recently? the city is exploding. Wondering what was your favourite restaurants here. Also the Tulo Hoffman trade – while not quite Dickey Thor debacle – is looking like worse each day. comment? thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Monday’s PitchTalks event – I think there are still a few tickets left – will be my first trip to T.O. since 2005. Not sure any of my old favorite haunts still exist – and I understand there’s a huge culinary scene there now. Hoffman isn’t going to post a 7% HR/FB rate as a Rockie for very long.

Rob: Rutherford, Andujar, Sheffield & Florial for Quintana. Who says no?
Keith Law: You must be a White Sox fan.

Rick C: I know he can’t run a .400+ BABIP and 2.0- BB% forever, but could Johan Camargo be a guy? The Braves apparently felt he was worth protecting from the rule 5, and he hit well at AAA this year.
Keith Law: Nope.

Jonathan: Thoughts on the new Ride album. Also, with Chavis and Devers now both in Portland, does this mean Devers goes to Pawtucket and/or does one of them switch positions?
Keith Law: Front half of the album is superb, vintage Ride but maybe with cleaner production. It loses steam towards the end. Devers is a better 3b now than Chavis, so I wouldn’t expect them to move him.

Dr. Bob: I am baffled by the number of players expected to be taken in the first couple rounds of the draft of whom it is said, “has no position” or “1B/DH only.” If I were the parent or coach of a player who looked like he had a hit tool, I would try to teach them to play a position. These are decent athletes, right? Couldn’t many of them learn a position if they started early enough? How does this happen?
Keith Law: A lot of them aren’t very good athletes, but they can hit. Or maybe you could say their athletic ability is limited to their swings.

MAS: How does Gleyber Torres recent injury impact his future development? Would it be better for a prospect to play well in AA/AAA as a 20 yo then have a major injury or struggle/ do OK at AA all year and remain healthy.
Keith Law: No impact. Non-throwing elbow, misses half a season of AB. Sucks that he won’t get the callup in September, but long-term I don’t think this means a thing.

JP: Is David Dahl is basically a clone Michael Brantley at this point? Very toolsy, but probably not playing more than 100 games/year?
Keith Law: I’m worried the back issues will be (or are) chronic.

Larry: Question about draft approach. For a team like Atlanta with a loaded farm system, they went all in with their money on basically three draft prospects — Wright, Waters, Tarnok. Do you like that approach or the one they used last year to spread the money out throughout the draft?
Keith Law: This draft class was not a good one to try to spread money out – the 2016 class had a lot of good prep arms to overpay, which they did, but the 2017 class didn’t..

Ben: If Russia hacks affected voter registration & prevented certain people from voting, that’s terrifying. And that our president & other republicans don’t seem to care is worse.
Keith Law: And the cynic in me wonders if the Democrats only care because it may have cost them some elections. But yeah, it’s terrifying, and the national apathy over it is even more so.

Stevie: Shed Long was recently promoted to Double-A after destroying High-A. Has his prospect status changed this year?
Keith Law: It has not.

Brian in ahwatukee: As an A’s fan, did “I believe in Stephan Vogt” ever have trade value?
Keith Law: I think he did at the All-Star Break in 2015, and even suggested it on our SF area radio affiliate at the time, for which I was insulted, flamed, sworn at, etc.

Devin: in your opinion, does heliot ramos project to be a plus center fielder?
Keith Law: That’s probably more than I’d project on his defense.

Nolan: Hey Keith, any thoughts on the Rizzo-Hedges play? A few things bug me about it, mainly: 1. That MLB told Rizzo he broke the rule but has no punishment system in place, and 2. Rizzos comment that “every ump I ask says if the C has the ball he’s fair game.” Is Rizzo lying, or do umps not even understand the rule? Does he go around asking when it’s okay to railroad catchers?
Keith Law: He pretty clearly targeted the catcher, and I certainly wondered if his status as a very popular, face-of-baseball sort of player on a rather important franchise had any effect on MLB giving it a big shrug.

Angel: Keith 2 in one .. chavis was promoted from AA Why the Yankees can’t do the same with Andújar?.. and do you think Torres will be fine after the surgery?.. I mean you think he will change because of that?
Keith Law: Andujar was promoted to AAA the other day.

Jonah: Has then ship sailed on Appel ever becoming a big leaguer?
Keith Law: He just had his best start ever in pro ball, so your timing is curious. He’s clearly going to be a big leaguer. The question is what kind of big leaguer.

Darren: Whom do you believe will be promoted to the majors first. Senzel, B Rodgers, Eloy or Rutherford? Would a good guess for all 4 be in that order?
Keith Law: Yep, that’s just the order I’d suggest.

Jorge: Having read that the Yankees may soon be looking to the trade market to resolve their first base issues, I imagine Matt Adams is a potential target (This Freddie Freeman to third business is nonsense posturing I hope). If a trade like that were to happen, in what prospect range (1-10, 11-20, 21-30) would you put a potential return for the Braves? And could you see a prospect (11-20) included with Matt Adams to get to a (1-10) range? Thanks, reading your book on my iphone while my dad reads the hard copy I bought him for father’s day. We are both really enjoying it.
Keith Law: Really doubt they get a top prospect for Adams. He’s a platoon player, really.

Drew: We know S Romero was kicked off his team for fighting with a teammate, as well as marijuana use. Does his overall character concern paint him as more of a “young guy who needs to grow up”, or a legitimately bad guy you dont want in your clubhouse?
Keith Law: I think there’s enough risk of the latter that I would have passed on him in the draft, especially where he was taken. Let someone else roll that die.

BD: What did the Orioles do to Kevin Gausman and is it fixable??
Keith Law: Kept changing his delivery, moving him on the rubber. They changed Bundy. They changed Harvey and wrecked him. A lot of this is Rick Peterson, who’s now gone, but at some point don’t Buck & co. have to answer for this stuff too?

Darren: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. We were having a discussion on sending back food at restaurants, and as a general rule I will not do it and ask for a new meal. If it’s completely inedible I will just ask for my money back and eat later. I’ve heard too many horror stories from people that work in the industry. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I will only send something back if there is something truly wrong (e.g., I didn’t order that) or if it’s cooked so poorly that it’s inedible. I don’t think I do this even once a year. If I just don’t like something, I simply leave it. If the server asks, I’ll (very politely) explain the issue, but I don’t ask for anything at all – not a refund, not a replacement, nothing.

Buck: Am I right in thinking that Tyler Mahle will be making a big jump onto the midseason list? JJ Cooper recently said he has “front-end stuff” and the AA stats sure seem to back that up. Do you agree? Do you like him better than Luis Castillo?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s front end of the rotation stuff? I like him, had him on the “just missed” list, think he’s a big league starter, but wouldn’t forecast him as a future #2.

Brad: Son’s team won a 13u championship last week in East Cobb. Played against a kid throwing 84. Now another team from Texas is playing in the Semi-Finals of a perfect game 13U tournament at LakePoint. Game is currently in the 10th, but team from Florida has a kid that is sitting 84-86 and has hit 88. That is harder than most HS teams will have on their team next year.
Keith Law: That just strikes me as “not a good thing.” You never really know – the issue isn’t how hard the kid throws, but whether he’s throwing at the max end of his velocity range. But it sounds bad.

norman: now that we’re past the asg would you challenge vladito and bichette with high A? if that even is a challenge for them?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s imperative, but I’d do it with Bichette before Vlad, given their ages.

Mark: Just want to say first how much I enjoy the chats and appreciate the effort on your end. Food question…When making Marinara sauce I know you have said in the past adding wine is key. I usually let the wine reduce down as I saute the garlic , onions, etc. My first question is , Red or White ? I tend to use red , but I think sometime it overpowers the sauce a bit. My second question is , is reducing the wine the right way to go or should I just add to the sauce as it cooks ?
Keith Law: Tradition says red. I use white. I think it’s less overpowering, and reducing red wine can concentrate its bitter flavors. You can simply add with the tomatoes and let the alcohol simmer out – if the sauce is even gently simmering that’ll cook out most of the booze.

Nick: Should the Braves just trade
Keith Law: Probably yes.

Nils: Can we get this out of the way early? Yes, player _______ on your favorite team is going to sign before the deadline. Thanks.
Keith Law: Yep. Last year two players didn’t sign in the top ten rounds. Unless a guy flunks a physical or was never going to sign anyway, he’s signing.

Chris: Just curious of youre aware of this insanity of Mike Francesa seeing nothing wrong with saying “Oriental-Americans”, claiming CNBC used it first (no proof), and thinks finding one single Asian-American person to back him up vindicates him. Shocking that Mike’s a Trump guy.
Keith Law: He probably loves the attention. I doubt any of this was an occident.

Jay: Recently had a chance to see Brady Aiken start and chat with him after a game. Velo was only 88-90. One of the coaches sounded like he was going to reprimand me because he thought I was asking Aiken about his velo. That’s gotta be a red flag they are worried?
Keith Law: The coach is out of line if he thought he was going to do something to you. But yes, he’s only upper 80s now and yes I believe they are concerned.

Ben: So Missouri voted to allow employers to fire women who use birth control? What the fuck, Keith. This country’s going to shit real quick. Idk what to do anymore.
Keith Law: This is proposed, not passed, right? Still, that it is even reaching the legislature floor is absolutely ridiculous. The attempt to roll back basic women’s rights in this country is brazen – just as one side tells us there’s no “war on women” happening.

John: Before this year Zach Granite looked like a 4th OF at best. Has something changed, or are we just seeing SSS at work?
Keith Law: It’s just 200 PA of BABIP madness. Although I look forward to lots of puns if he’s called up.

Wade: STL signs 7th round JR (pinder) at 110k over slot … really necessary there given their situation this year?
Keith Law: That’s really strange. I thought he was great value in the round, but he wasn’t a top 3 rounds talent for me.

Aaron C.: Favorite Mobb Deep track? Or was their heyday after your divorce from rap music?
Keith Law: Flavor for the Non-Believes. I know it’s not considered one of their best, but I thought it showcased their flow best and I like the minimalist feel.

Adam: Any thoughts on Newcomb past that crazy Langston comparison? Command has looked pretty good so far. The walks are up from one bad inning where he was squeezed a bit
Keith Law: You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who walked as many guys as he did in the minors and then just stone-cold stopped in the majors. Let’s give him some time.

Jeff: I have a daughter that is going to be a senior in high school this coming year. She’s starting to explore her college options and I was curious if you had any tips on picking a school. She thinks she wants to go to med school afterwards but isn’t sure. We are a middle income family and she is smart enough to get a decent amount of scholarships, but not enough to pay her way. What do you think we should look for? Should the school have a med school or can she undergrad elsewhere? In-state vs. out of state? Overall price? The education she’ll be getting? Overall comfortability with the school? Thanks for your tips.
Keith Law: I couldn’t advise you on the med school aspect, having never gone that route, but on the undergrad part itself, I don’t think paying more for private school or going out of state makes sense if you have a reasonable in-state/public option. Few private universities have the brand name to provide sufficient ROI to match what you’d get by her going to state school and, if your daughter is a good student, excelling there.

Lilith: Who would you say was a better comp round pick? Jeter Downs or Taylor Trammell? Who has the better upside?
Keith Law: I think Trammell, but to be fair, I think in hindsight i was light on Downs.

Ben: Writing a book can take a long time. What did you do to keep yourself motivated and to write every day & get it done? I’ve always wanted to write (have many ideas), but I lack patience and discipline to do so.
Keith Law: Knowing that you have a deadline, and that there’s a big check coming when you finish the manuscript, both help tremendously. I tend to write fast, especially under pressure, so that pushed me too.

Dennis: 1st round picks this year, what % had a deal/agreement in place before the pick was made?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you mean, Dennis. Everyone knows predraft deals are illegal. /rolls eyes so hard my retinas detach

Harrisburg Hal: I’m thinking of ducking out of my Mom’s 70th birthday party to see you in Harrisburg. If there is a book left there for you to sign for me at your appearance, it’s because I thought better of it…or more likely my idea was shot down by my better half.
Keith Law: I’ll sign another one for your mom, then.

Stephen: How many variables do you consider when grading someone’s fastball? Velocity is and will always be the top measure. How much can movement, though, make up for lack of premium heat?
Keith Law: A fastball grade should be about velocity. Fastball movement is typically its own category.

Lisa: What % do you think are females asking you questions?
Keith Law: People seem to think I’m more likely to take questions from women. It’s not true – I don’t look at the names other than to make sure there’s nothing offensive there.

Frank Underwood: Do you watch my show? If so, what did you think of Season 5?
Keith Law: Since I don’t know who you are, I think it’s safe to say I do not watch whatever show you’re on.

Ricky: What % of questions go unanswered each week if you had to guess?
Keith Law: 75% or more.

JG: Do you know much about Landon Leach? He wasn’t in your top 100…
Keith Law: I do … and he wasn’t, indeed.

Andy: Sounds like you got a bad look at Mejia. Any way this influences your outlook? Had you heard other things about trouble with offspeed pitches?
Keith Law: Not really, it’s just one night, but it’ll be something I watch for in the future and ask other scouts about.

Jason: When should teams move minor leaguers who are blocked at the big-league level to another position? I remember you thought the Braves moved Peraza off short too early.
Keith Law: Only when absolutely necessary. They did hurt Peraza’s trade value by doing that. That was a Wren decision, though.

Andy: You’ve commented that the 73% gender wage gap is overstated? Why is that?
Keith Law: There is a wage gap (by gender), but the 73% figure doesn’t consider other independent variables that might explain wage differences. Women do get paid less for equal work, though, and that’s a social problem that requires a political solution.

Steve: Austin Slater isn’t gonna slash .310/.365/.466 at the end of the season, but he is now and has always hit. Think he’s a 3 win player next year?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. But I do think he can hit. I had him as a top 100 draft prospect in 2014, but the Giants got him in the 8th (!) round. He’s always had a good swing and I saw him hit good velocity in college.

Chris: Not as timely a question as it could be, but since I’ve missed your last few chats: were/are you a fan of Denis Johnson?
Keith Law: I didn’t care for Tree of Smoke.

Franklin: Please help me decide an argument. Is Happ overmatched right now? He has great power and some good peripheral numbers, but he strikes out a ton, usually swings at the first pitch and if he doesn’t hit it out of the park he’s likely to get out.
Keith Law: He’s always struck out quite a bit, even in college, so that doesn’t concern me. The better question is this: are the Cubs better off with him killing AAA again, or trying to develop his approach in the majors? I think the latter, even if he produces less than they need from that spot.

Michael: Any thoughts on what more we as concerned citizens can do to stop the Republican health care bill? The way they have managed this process in darkness, combined with the awful things the bill does, are very frightening.
Keith Law: Probably not much, other than calling all your elected reps and making sure they are aware you oppose the bill. And then get out in 2018 and get involved. I intend to.

Rob: Micker Adolfo seems to have turned a corner this year. Is there still potential there?
Keith Law: I think so but he’s still a longshot with that approach.

Franklin: You’ve been a big Addison Russell fan and (appropriately) against domestic violence. If you are the GM, there have been no charges brought and he’s publicly denied anything. How would Klaw handle that situation?
Keith Law: Wait for the MLB investigation’s results. If they find sufficient cause for action – and you know my bar on that is pretty low – then I’d make a move.

Estuve: How much movement does Hunter Greene’s fastball have?
Keith Law: Not much – it’s a four-seamer, so it’s hard, but it’s up. I think the Reds have a number of things to try to develop here – he needs to pick one breaking ball, and he needs to throw that changeup more too.

Goody: How far off is a Tyler Mahle comparison to Mitch Keller?
Keith Law: Way off. Keller has better stuff.

jon: Didn’t Clay Buccholz had character issues when he was drafted out of college? Was his character issues different than Seth Romero?
Keith Law: He was arrested for stealing computers. One incident, but a very stupid one that speaks to bad character. Romero has had a variety of incidents.

Jared: Orlando Arcia was one of your breakout candidates this year and I now see why. His defense is incredible and his bat is coming around. What kind of player can he become?
Keith Law: I think he makes some All-Star teams … but maybe not this year.

PJ: Do you feel weird signing autographs?
Keith Law: No, especially not since it’s usually my book I’m signing.

Jeries: Should the White Sox put Carson Fulmer in relief? He’s been getting shelled in AAA again.
Keith Law: I have said this since he was in high school. I can’t see him ever commanding anything enough to start. But he could be pretty damn good for one inning.

Jeff: Do you think the Diamondbacks season is sustainable?
Keith Law: I think it’d take a catastrophe for them or the Rockies to miss the playoffs.

NYTT: You talked before about the Braves cleaning up Bryse Wilson’s mechanics a little bit. Anything you’ve heard to believe he can stay a starter?
Keith Law: I saw him. He can start.

JR: Dilson Herrera – still have a chance to be an everyday 2b, or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: Based on what I’ve heard from scouts this year it has sailed.

Josh: Help! I’ve got 1 day in LA next month, top 2 places to eat?
Keith Law: Need more than one day for LA! Any of the Jon & Vinny places (Animal, Son of a Gun, Jon & Vinny’s, Petit Trois). And find that Guerrilla Taco truck!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see a bunch of you on Monday at PitchTalks in Toronto, and I’ll be back next week to chat before a brief trip to Bristol. Thank you all as always for your questions and for reading.

My recap of the draft’s first day is up for Insiders. I’ll do team-by-team recaps, as always, later in the week, probably starting tomorrow with the AL.

Keith Law: You can’t have the fire without the flame. It’s Klawchat.

Jason: Hi Keith, what are your thoughts on the Brewers’ first rounder, Hiura? Would you be seriously concerned about his elow?
Keith Law: He may need TJ. I ranked him lower because he’s going to miss 200 or so PA of development. But folks say he can really rake.

Moltar: Today I learned that David Peterson’s father was a legendary horse trainer who trained Seattle Slew. Over/under number of times he’s referred to as a Thoroughbred? And am I right to think of him as a Dallas Keuchel type?
Keith Law: Keuchel’s command has become exceptional; he wasn’t like this in college at all. But Peterson is a similar guy in that he throws strikes and gets a ton of groundballs.

Moltar: Will the Mets have any issue signing Vientos? I really liked their day 1 haul.
Keith Law: You should assume any player taken in the top ten rounds is going to sign. I think last year two didn’t sign. Teams check prices before drafting because it screws up your bonus pool if you fail to sign a high pick.

Adam D.: The Giants did what the Giants always seem to do and went way off-board. Am I wrong to criticize the picks, even understanding the both Ramos and Gonzalez could pan out?

It just seems to me that they really pain themselves into a corner picking guys that the industry is not nearly as high on. If they work out, great, but if they find themselves in a spot where trading a prospect for a ML player is something they want to do, they are stuck with guys that other teams don’t value similarly.
Keith Law: They do have a good track record with bats they liked a lot more than the industry did, though, so I don’t like to just assume they’re doing something wrong. They’ve found nice value that way in the past. The problem I see in their system is they don’t have up the middle guys with trade value.

Todd Boss: Nats Day 1 thoughts: do the picks of Romero (who has no school to go back to) and Crowe (4th yr, 3rd time drafted) indicate perhaps their attempt to save some slot dollars for a run at a prep kid today? Both players they picked have leverage issues.
Keith Law: I assume you sent this before the third round, when they took another college player, but I would have said then that Romero wasn’t going to be an under slot guy. His advisor is Boras and I’m pretty sure he’s getting slot or above.

Ryan: Re Astros’ drafting of Joe Perez: What kind of bat does he profile to have? Is his selection to move money around to grab other talent?
Keith Law: I’ll do recaps for every team in the next 48 hours, so I’ll have more detail on lots of second to fifth round picks especially. Perez is having TJ surgery this week, though, and I assume there’s a deal in place for him – he was hitting 97 and was probably going in this range of the draft anyway.

Bobby: Keith! Thanks, as always, for the chats and your great content. As a Yanks fan it is hard to be excited about their pick. I assume, as you wrote, they are not concerned w violent deliveries, as most others are. That said, can you see any logic here given who else was available? Could Schmidt at least be a cheaper sign leaving them able to go overslot later?
Keith Law: Clearly they see a starter there. Not every bad delivery guy ends up in the pen and not every good delivery guy stays healthy. What gets me on Schmidt is that he blew out and had a bad delivery and wasn’t throwing 97 until this year, so if he comes back and is at his 2016 velocity again, then do you have a mid-first-round result? I don’t think so.

Rick C: What happened to the Braves taking Vientos or Beck at #41?
Keith Law: They took someone else?
Keith Law: Serious answer – teams have LOTS of players on their boards for picks after the first one. We would rank ~50 on our main board in Toronto and then have categories for beyond that so that by the end of the meetings we had something like 400-500 magnets up. The board falls a certain way, a player’s demands change, you just make sure you’re prepared for any contingency.

John T: Looks like the Twins saved their cash for Enlow. Fair to assume that he’ll sign, seeing as how they had a day to work it out with him? If so, that’s a pretty nice move, methinks.
Keith Law: Yes, no way the first pick on day two doesn’t sign – or doesn’t already have a deal in place.

Nate: You said you thought Baz had a predraft deal with a team. Chances pretty high it was the pirates?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so, nor do I know if he had any deal. That was the rumor in the industry, but no one knows for sure except the kid.

James: Why did Bukauskus fall to the Astros at 15? Teams worried about his size?
Keith Law: Size, delivery, little bit of fatigue at the finish. He went right around where Sonny Gray went and ahead of Marcus Stroman, two even shorter RHP from good colleges.

addoeh: Are there teams that have a history of drafting guys with certain flaws specifically because they have had a good history of correcting them?
Keith Law: I think of the White Sox with unusual delivery guys – they’re at least unconcerned with taking them. Maybe the Yankees have decided to adopt that philosophy.

Tim: How do you think the Reds have made out thus far w/ Greene, Downs, Fairchild & Heatherly?
Keith Law: And Cash Case too. Pretty strong for the first four rounds.

Alex: I think you could fit at least 10 more of your book on the shelf behind you. Go for broke!
Keith Law: That guy is still going and actually complained to the ESPN “Public Editor” (note: i have no idea who that person even is) on twitter.

Nick: Think the Cubs and A’s could partner up on something involving Gray and Candelario+? Am I overvaluing Candy?
Keith Law: I don’t see Candelario as the centerpiece of a deal like that, and the A’s have lots of players in that same bucket anyway.

Marshall MN: Can Royce Lewis develop the footwork necessary to play IF? You seem doubtful of that possibility, is there any track record of players developing that skill?
Keith Law: I’m very skeptical. At least he has to move off short. Then you end up questioning whether you are better off with the player at 2b, where he might be an average or 55 defender, or in CF, where he might develop into a 70.

ReleasetheMckraken: Regarding Brent Rooker’s position, is he truly limited to 1B? I read he can handle the OF but was playing 1st because MSU had a need.
Keith Law: Every scout I asked, even guys who liked him, told me he’s a 1b in pro ball. I haven’t seen him this year.

Nick: Not sure if you follow the NBA, but do you have any issue with Durant’s move to the Warriors? I don’t mind the transfer of talent, but players taking discounts seems to be bad for any league.
Keith Law: I know enough to know what you’re talking about and see no problem with it. Free agency means free agency. A player should be able to go where he wants for whatever reasons he wants.

Cooper: Hey Kieth, thanks for all the work you do. Daulton Varsho fascinates me. Do you think he can stick at catcher, or will he move somewhere else? And, after reading the chapter about stolen bases, how important is it to have a catcher with a good arm? It’s a nice luxury, but is it a necessity?
Keith Law: Much more important to get a good receiver/framer than thrower. Varsho was WAY off my radar – I know who he is, of course, but didn’t think he was a top 5 rounds guy.

Greg P: Keith – how do you characterize the Royals’ selection of Pratto in the 1st round? You’ve stated he’s limited to first and doesn’t have much physical projection. Was there a better selection available to them at 14?
Keith Law: I think they took him in the right range, but there were better players available, and their system is so thin right now that I would have preferred the greater asset value of either some up the middle guys or one of the top HS arms still on the board. That said, if Pratto really rakes, it’s going to be fine. He does have a great swing.

Marshall MN: Are there are any players from the first couple rounds that you would predict right now as not signing with team that drafted them? Sam Carlson seems to be a popular pick, anyone else?
Keith Law: Carlson’s going to sign. They’re all going to sign.

Aaron: In your chat yesterday you said Warmoth might be fastest to the majors. Are you higher on him than industry or is his ceiling not that high? Wondering why he was chosen somewhat lower than Haseley.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that about Warmoth. I said I liked him as someone who could move fast, but would not call him fastest to the majors.

J: Yes, they’re in a relatively unique position to take the chance, but does Kendall to the Dodgers have a chance to be the best value as pick number relative to player in the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, they’re in a good position to roll the dice on that. Lot of work to do with his swing, though.

Bill: Jim Callis threw around a rumor of the Rays letting Mckay try to pitch and hit. Lets say the experiment works and he does play both relatively well. What would that most likely look like? DH/RP, 1b/RP, or some combo of DH/1b/SP with more days off than a typical position player?
Keith Law: I tweeted yesterday that the Rays WILL let him do both. It’s not a rumor; he’ll be developed both ways, probably starting next year. My guess is that he plays 1b 3x a week and gets some rest by DHing the day before he pitches.

Steve: Brandon Little’s chance to be a starting pitcher and whats his ceiling if everything clicks?
Keith Law: I think he’s got a good chance – 40-50% – delivery isn’t ideal but has the fastball and out pitch in the CB. I saw a decent CH too.

Rick: Hey Keith. You have stated you think Royce Lewis probably ends up an outfielder by the time he reaches the majors. I’m wondering who you prefer as a prospect, Lewis or last years #1 overall, Moniak? Thanks.
Keith Law: Moniak has a higher probability of being a big leaguer but I think Lewis has more ceiling and would take him.

Joe-Nathan: Which guys drafted who immediately becoming the top prospect on their team?
Keith Law: McKay for sure. Wright maybe; depends on where Acuna ends up on my midseason list. Beck. Greene of course, although Senzel’s pretty damn good. DL Hall. I think Pratto would be too. Rogers, by default, since Garrett is hurt.

EricVA: Non-draft question: What do you think would happen (congressional reaction, DOJ reaction, public reaction) if Trump got Mueller fired?
Keith Law: Congressional Republicans will be quick to issue stern comments expressing their Grave Concern.

EricVA: Does the Yankees’ 2nd pick of Sauer make the Schmidt pick any better for you?
Keith Law: No, because I didn’t have Sauer as a top 50 guy either.

Juan: What’s the furthest you’ve ever had to drive from your hotel or an airport to scout a prospect?
Keith Law: Byron Buxton. Flew to Atlanta from Phoenix, drove to Macon, stayed the night, drove about three hours the next day to Baxley (his town), drove back to Macon, stayed the night, drove back to ATL, swapped rental cars, kept on driving to Greenville SC.

mike: There seem to be a lot of two position guys drafted at the top this year. Can you address how teams evaluate which way to go? How about the Jays saying Danner is a C to them?
Keith Law: If the two sides are close, teams nearly always choose bat first, figuring the player could always pitch later.

Marshall MN: Have you talked to people around the league to get their reaction to the Twins taking Lewis 1-1? It seemed to be an ongoing rumor for a while that it was a possibility, but from what you know did any other team have Lewis at the top of their board?
Keith Law: I can think of two teams that I believe had Lewis at 1, but it wasn’t a majority view, and the reactions I got from other teams last night and this morning weren’t favorable.

Arnold: What can you tell us about Giants 1st round pick Heliot Ramos? Is he really a 5-tool player like the Giants are claiming?
Keith Law: He is not a five-tool player.

Ryan: Do you have any information on Matt Tabor? You don’t see a lot of pitchers throwing in the high 90s in Massachusetts.
Keith Law: I do; he wasn’t a top 100 guy, and he doesn’t throw in the high 90s. Up to 95 with really bad delivery and below average breaking ball.

John: Twins fan here. With the Blayne pick should I get off the ledge that the new management team blew their first draft?
Keith Law: That’s way over the top. It’s still mid-draft. No one really has any idea how this will look in five to ten years. We just have opinions.

Dave: Keith, thanks for all your draft coverage. How excited should A’s fans be about Nick Allen? And do you like the A’s draft with up-the-middle talent?
Keith Law: Love this pick. First round talent. But the A’s didn’t go up the middle all the way – Deichmann certainly isn’t, and Merrell’s best chance to stay in the middle is in CF, not SS.

John: Why wouldn’t McKay take an underslot deal at #1 rather than falling to #4?
Keith Law: Because he could get over slot at 4.

Bret: I’m really excited about the Blue Jays selecting Logan Warmoth. If you could take a guess, where will he fit in amongst their top prospects?
Keith Law: Certainly behind Vlad and Bichette.

Dave: Are you exclusively answering draft questions today?
Keith Law: The draft is ongoing right now, so that’s going to be my focus.

Jesse: With Kyle Wright being a more advanced college arm than the Braves have been taking, where do you think he ends up pitching the remainder of this season? Starting next season?
Keith Law: Probably won’t pitch much this year period since he’s already over 100 innings, but I bet he spends the bulk of next year in AA.

Jeries: Should the White Sox move Burger to 1B immediately?
Keith Law: No reason to do that.

Tim: What kind of prospect is Heimlich? Where would he have gone if he hadn’t molested that girl?
Keith Law: I think second round. I don’t think he’ll be drafted today, if at all.

Jeries: Is Carson Fulmer a fair comp for Bukauskus? Who do you like more?
Keith Law: Bukauskas throws better strikes and his delivery isn’t violent like Fulmer’s.

CWS: What is your outlook on Spencer Adams? I remember you had him as a top 100 at one point. He doesn’t appear to be striking out many batters, but isn’t walking anyone either and his ERA and peripherals looks good.
Keith Law: I don’t think his fastball has ever gotten back to where it was in year one.

Mark: If Cincy had not taken Greene, do you think Preller would have or did he likely still favor Gore?
Keith Law: I think the Padres had them ranked Greene, Gore, McKay.

Linda: Does Peterson possibly have more in his arm? I ask mainly bc it seems all Mets pitchers somehow end up throwing a good bit harder once they hit the big leagues…..
Keith Law: Don’t think so, but given his groundball rates, I wouldn’t change anything.

Mike: What’s the knock on Burger besides defense? The stat line looks great (sorry) power, average, obp, low strikeouts
Keith Law: Defense, hasn’t faced great competition in that conference.

Guest: Thoughts on Luis Gonzalez out of New Mexico?
Keith Law: Would have gone higher but there were some late makeup concerns. Thought it was a solid value there.

Mike J: Pirates taking 4 HS players on Day 1 and now two college position players. Your thoughts so far on their draft? Thanks for your time.
Keith Law: I think they’re doing money-savers now to pay Baz, Jennings, etc.

Tom: Is Pavin Smith 1b only, or does he have a chance to move to a corner outfield spot?
Keith Law: I can’t fathom him in an outfield corner. He doesn’t move like an outfielder would.

Tyler: Hey Keith, loving Smart Baseball! Why does it matter what position a draftee is announced at? Does it impact bonus $?
Keith Law: The team asks for him to be announced at a certain position, which can tell us if they intend to move him to another position or, in the case of a two-way guy, which way they intend to start him. Perez, Danner, Greene were all two-way guys announced one way. McKay was supposed to be announced as both but MLB made a mistake.

Tim: How long until players drafted this wee can be traded? Is this another rule (like pre-draft tradeable picks) you might like to see changed in the next CBA?
Keith Law: After the World Series. I wanted this changed like ten years ago.

Tim: Who had the best breaking ball in this draft? Bukauskus slider? Hall’s curve?
Keith Law: Little’s curve.

Archie: If your son had a strong college commitment and was going to get drafted, assuming he would be offered slot money, at what point would you deem the college experience more valuable than what he would get to sign?
Keith Law: The college experience will be there after pro ball if he wants it. If he’s good enough to be drafted in the first few rounds and he wants to go play pro ball, I’d encourage him to sign.

Rob: Are you going to be on Buster’s podcast on Tuesdays from here on out, or is it a temporary thing because of draft/scouting conflicts?
Keith Law: He wanted me to come on yesterday and today to talk about the draft.

Johnny O: Grade instant draft grades on the scouting scale. I believe 20 is lowest but I think we can make an exception and go down to 0 for these useless articles (even if your editor makes you do one).
Keith Law: I have steadfastly refused to do draft grades for eleven years now.

Jeries: Why don’t minor league teams use 6 or 7 man rotations to keep IP down? Is it simply because there isn’t enough SP talent?
Keith Law: A lot of minor league teams use six-man rotations.

Aaron C.: What’s your personal policy on writing about/discussing “makeup” issues? Do you prefer to independently confirm them or do you only address them if they’ve already been publicly reported elsewhere? Thanks!
Keith Law: I rarely discuss them, because it’s dangerous. If there’s an arrest or a suspension, that’s easy. A failed drug test is pretty concrete too. But on a guy like DL Hall, where I think some scouts just didn’t like the kid very much, is that something you need to know about as readers? What if it’s bogus, but still affected where he was picked? That’s where I struggle. I’m supposed to explain to you what’s going on, but if a stupid rumor is the cause, but is just a stupid rumor, how do I present that to you all?

Brett: Kyle Hurt is still on the board. Have you heard anything on him, or is he likely heading to school at this point?
Keith Law: He missed a chunk of the spring after an ACL injury and didn’t come back at 100%, so he may just be a school guy.
Keith Law: Also, keep this in mind. If a player I ranked high doesn’t get drafted till way later, there are three likely explanations – the three M’s: Money, Medicals, or Me. He wanted too much money; there’s a bad medical report that steered teams away; or I screwed up the evaluation.

Jeries: If Hunter Greene insisted on playing the field full time and never pitching, where would he be drafted?
Keith Law: Late first round. Or maybe still top ten because some team would believe they could convince him to pitch eventually.

Joe-Nathan: Gigliotti just went to KC in the 4th, why so late? Rough start to the season but finished very well, solid obp and should be a CF.
Keith Law: Really never played that well and a slew of his hits this year were bunt singles, which doesn’t give you a ton of confidence in the stat line.

Marshall MN: In regard to Lewis’ skill set, how do they compare to Buxton’s coming out of HS? If Buxton had 80 speed and defensive potential, how would Lewis rate?
Keith Law: Buxton was way more tooled up, but Lewis probably has a better hit tool today than Buxton did at 19.

Kretin: Any insight into what is going on with Griffin Canning? Good pick by the Angels?
Keith Law: MLB reported the other day and I mentioned in my writeup this morning that teams didn’t like something on his MRI.

Alex: Do you think McKay will pitch at all this year, or exclusively hit?
Keith Law: No chance he pitches. He’s at 104 innings and Louisville is going to Omaha.

Paul: Is Drew Waters an over-slot guy? Seems like he was picked about where he was ranked, and I assume Wright will get full slot. Braves’ 3rd and 4th rounders both seemed somewhat off the board (not to say they aren’t good, just that I haven’t heard of them), so wondering if there is any room down the board to go over-slot. Thinking it would come down to what Waters gets.
Keith Law: I bet he’s an over slot guy.

Leo: Giants just selected Garret Cave. Do you think he can remain a starter or is he destined for the bullpen?
Keith Law: I would start him. He seemed totally undeveloped – not bad, not violent, just like someone who’d never been taught a proper delivery.

Jeries: What successful big leaguer were you most skeptical about turning raw power into actual game power as a prospect?
Keith Law: AJ Pollock had very little power as an amateur and ended up with quite a bit in the majors.

Robert: What percentage of time do teams not select the BPA from their draft board due to signability or bonus pool considerations?
Keith Law: I don’t know what percentage of the time that would be. Teams sometimes do that because they took BPA with an earlier pick – we went over at pick one, so we have to shave money at picks four and five. The Pirates seem to be doing that today.

Guest: Injuries occuring after the draft aside, which Mets pick do you like better as a college prospect – Peterson or Kay last yr? Are they roughly the same sort of prospect (safe, mid-rotation lefty) or is one significantly ahead of the other?
Keith Law: Peterson more than Kay. Kay was stronger but Peterson has better results and better sink.

Tallulah: Saw the Dodgers just nabbed Marinan in the 4th (your #56). Are you just higher on him or did he slip due to bonus demands?
Keith Law: He came on kind of late this spring and I think some teams had ‘finished’ with him early. He also wasn’t very consistent.

Liam: Non-draft question: I can’t access your Top 100 prospects list from ’09, ’10, ’11. Were they taken down or is there still a way to access them?
Keith Law: The site redesign swallowed a bunch of old content,

Ryan: At what point do you stop researching potential picks? Do you stop at around the top 200, or are you able to give at least a quick nugget of information on most power conference players?
Keith Law: I’ll stop after the fifth round – if a kid drafted after that wasn’t already on my radar, he might still be a prospect, but the odds of him becoming a big leaguer are pretty low.

banksy_: Would you draft a kid from Alaska?
Keith Law: Yes. Talent comes from everywhere. There’s an Alaskan kid in this class who should be drafted today.

Greg: Hi Keith! Thoughts on Kevin Smith (the baseball player)? Did decently well on the Cape last year, but overall college numbers are rather underwhelming.
Keith Law: Thought he was a 4th/5th round guy, probably utility player, just did not perform this spring in a bad conference.

Jeb: Is Garrett Mitchell also going to school?
Keith Law: I think so. He’s also a type 1 diabetic and I believe some teams were worried about that. There are very few everyday players today or in the past who were type 1 diabetics.

Drew: What do you think was the cause of Sam Carlson dropping? It seemed likely to me that he was a Twins target since they may have gone underslot and he was thought of pretty highly by a lot of evaluators. Was he overhyped or is this just a “diff’rent strokes for diff’rent folks” thing?
Keith Law: People assumed he was a Twins target because he’s local. That’s almost never true in practice. We saw a bunch of good HS arms drafted later than folks like me or Mayo had them ranked because that’s how the bonus pools work.

Rod: Any issues with Kyle Wright’s mechanics? Some Braves fans are hating the pick because of the Inverted W
Keith Law: The Inverted W is Utter Nonsense.

Charlie: Has anyone been drafted yet where your reaction was “who?”. No shame in it just curious, as someone who hasn’t know a pick since the 2nd round or so
Keith Law: Yes, the JC kid the Astros took in the 4th, Tyler Ivey. Had nothing on him. (I do now, of course.)

Dave: My brother is anti-vaccination. What can I tell him to get him on the correct side of the issue?
Keith Law: Answer every stupid falsehood with facts. And don’t stop. If he has kids, their health is at risk, perhaps even their lives.

Jace: Best player going to college so they haven’t been drafted yet?
Keith Law: Garrett Mitchell, Kyle Hurt, Adam Oviedo.

Matt: You remain a Kendall believer but if Toffey had better offensive #s across the board is past history and defensive ability the main reason he’s a 4th rd pick? Harder to fall than it is easier to rise?
Keith Law: Toffey’s just not a very good hitter. There’s no upside there.

banksy_: What other arm actions/delivery flaws (i.e. Inverted W) are also nonsense? Any come to mind that are pushed hard throughout the public or industry?
Keith Law: The idea that short pitchers were more likely to get hurt is still around. I have never bought that. My issue with short P is that they need to be able to get the ball down. But I know of no evidence that they get hurt any more often than medium to tall pitchers do.

CVD: You a Will Crowe guy?
Keith Law: I like him. I don’t have to sift through his medicals, though.

Dave: I’m an adult stutterer. I can control it most of the time but I do a lot of delay tactics and things to avoid speaking. Anxiety goes hand in hand with it. Do you have any tips to share? Whether it be something to read, breathing exercises to do etc.
Keith Law: I’ve recommended the book Fully Present to a lot of people – you may find the breathing and mindfulness tips in there useful too.

Jeries: What innings limit should the Sox look at for Kopech? 65 IP in 2015, 56 IP in 2016, and 62 IP already this year.
Keith Law: I don’t really know the science behind this – whether there’s any at all, to be honest. This idea of N+30 or N+50 or whatever, some fixed number above the previous year … if there’s real research demonstarting its value, I haven’t seen it. The claim by one writer that increasing year over year by 30+ innings has been debunked. So with Kopech – I wouldn’t push him excessively, not 150 or something, but I wouldn’t panic if he gets to 100 or 120. And remember he probably pitched more than just those 56 last year if you consider sim games or extended spring.

Benny: Are the Reds the big winners of the draft so far? What do you think about Stuart Fairchild- especially with Waters still on the board?
Keith Law: I don’t like to name winners or losers on draft day. It’s hot-take-ish. I liked Fairchild and Waters would have required a bigger bonus.

MRA: Is there anything to like in the Cardinals picks in rounds 3 (Hurst), 4 (Robertson) or 5 (Kirtley)? Thank you.
Keith Law: They had no money to spend so I’m loath to be too critical. I didn’t rank any of those guys or have them close to the top 100.

Jeff Sessions: And I perjure myself in 3….2….
Keith Law: I’m glad I have the draft to distract me from our crumbling republic.

Ed: Do the Cubs draft a player like Lange with the expectation that they can clean up his delivery? If so, does that often work?
Keith Law: I hope not. That’s faulty logic – and I would be shocked if the Cubs thought that. I bet they saw Lange as a fast to the majors reliever – i heard that from a bunch of scouts this spring.

Charlie: Lucas Giolito thoughts? Seems to be really making some strides as of late, but obviously could just be some SSS
Keith Law: I have heard the delivery is much closer to where it was in 2015.

Drew: How quick could Rooker move? He’s old but I don’t know how that translates to a minor league assignment. Do they move him to AA?
Keith Law: Doesn’t he have to? He’s older than five current big league hitters (I think). Sending him to low-A seems futile.

Kevin: Thoughts on the Tigers 2nd rd pick Reynaldo Rivera. Gigantic dude, but didn’t see him on any of your list.
Keith Law: For good reason. Gigantic, strong, but substantial questions about his hit tool.

Matt: I think a good argument to make for MLB being the hardest sport to play is the fact that the players getting drafted often don’t appear in the majors for 3-5 years. Imagine the Patriots drafting Tom Brady and he doesn’t get to be QB until 2007?
Keith Law: But then we wouldn’t have had deflate-a-lago and all the bloviating that generated … and I think to myself … what a wonderful world.
Keith Law: OK, I have some draft recaps to write. Thank you all for your questions today and yesterday and for reading all my draft content. I will not chat again this week but should be back to my regular slot next Thursday. Look for my team-by-team draft recaps (focusing on the top five rounds) starting tomorrow!

Happy Draft Day! My latest mock draft (posted Sunday morning) is up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Why do I find it hard to write the next line? It’s Klawchat.

Alan: Still confident in Wright to Atlanta? Any rumors about them going underslot to save money?
Keith Law: As far as I know, that’s still the most likely scenario (the 1-6 I had in my mock yesterday). Yes, there are those rumors, but I don’t think it comes to pass.

Alan: Kyle wright was 1-1 a few days ago, now most people have him falling to at least 5. Have any concerns popped up with him, or is it just that teams at 2, 3 and 4 don’t like him as much?
Keith Law: No concerns and not falling – just that teams 2-4 were focused on other players beforehand.

Alan: Keaton Hieura getting top 10 talk now. Is that a reach to you? Is it because he’ll sign for cheap?
Keith Law: Hiura is a reach to me because he can’t play the field and has some kind of arm injury that will have to be addressed postdraft. It’s possible he won’t play till next year as a result. But scouts tell me he’s the best pure bat in the class (I didn’t see, went to SoCal twice, Irvine was on the road both times) and if he’d been healthy all spring he might have legitimately gone top 10. I think he goes 8 or 10 although he’s worked out at 5 and 6.

addoeh: Where does today rank in baseball related holidays for you? Start of free agency, Opening Day, start of spring training?
Keith Law: It’s like Thanksgiving for me: I enjoy it, but by the time it actually arrives, I’m so exhausted by the preparation that I’m just relieved that it’s happening.

Clubber Lang: Do Cubs finally go with some pitching with 2 1st round picks? Seems any bat they draft is a waste? Any dark horse SP there for them in round 1?
Keith Law: They can always trade bats they draft and can’t use, so “waste” is not an appropriate description. I do think one of those two picks (27 and 30) will be a pitcher, maybe a prep or JC arm at 30 after a bat at 27 because the good college starters should all be gone by that point.

Jim – Chicago: Hi Keith- Bukauskas seems to give you less reservations than other similar “short” RHP draft prospects in recent years. Am I interpreting that correctly and, if so, is their something in his delivery that might eventually get him some plane on his fastball?
Keith Law: No, I have the same reservations – lack of FB plane, doesn’t use lower half in his delivery – but this class is weaker than most.

Pete: If the Mets go pitching over hitting tonight, is that a reaction to their top arms having graduated the system?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. I think it would just mean they liked the arm at 20 over available bats.

Rob: IYO, would Warmoth to the ChiSox at 11 (underslot deal) make sense? Or, is there nothing connecting them to Warmoth? Thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Don’t think they’re on Warmoth at all.

Zach: Could you please contrast Hunter Greene vs. Robert Stephenson at the time they were drafted? As a Reds fan, I’m hesitant to go down the “unpolished flamethrowing HS RHP” track again.
Keith Law: Stephenson had a better breaking ball but a more violent delivery. Greene is younger and more athletic and the delivery is very easy.

Steve: Shouldn’t Rays take the best player at 4 instead of cutting a deal with Bubba Thompson?
Keith Law: I think they will and projected them to do so (BPA, not a deal).

Sean: Are the under-slot deals really a “good idea” for teams like the Rays, Braves, etc? Is the possible drafting of an over-slot 2nd rounder worth it?
Or do they only do it because they don’t see anyone with enough high-level talent in the 1st round?
Keith Law: I don’t think this draft has enough guys to guarantee you get who you want at pick 40 or 41 or whatever. Just take BPA in the top 5.

Brian: Thanks for the chat today. Are the Philllies still focused on the 2 UVA bats? Who would your pick be knowing their system.? thanks!
Keith Law: Also heard Hiura with them, some prep arms, but most likely a college bat.

Michael: Tangently related to the draft, I finished school a month ago and am in the middle of a business internship (paid). My friend is a mid-tier player on one of the teams still in the College WS chase and probably won’t be done until almost July. School starts again late August. He can’t get a real summer job that will help him and isn’t going to play pro ball. How are these guys “student” athletes again?
Keith Law: Because apparently a “scholarship” worth 1/4 of your tuition is sufficient compensation even though the CWS chase brings in a lot of revenue to the school and the NCAA as a whole.

PhillyJake: Can one draw the conclusion that Pavin Smith and Nick Pratto are both destined to be future DHs?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

S.S. Size: Last year we saw a few South Jersey kids get drafted (Groom, Mondial, that kid from Haddon Heights). Any SJ prospects of note this year?
Keith Law: Don’t have any on my top 100, and don’t think we’ll see any till day 3, maybe Ergatuk there.

Paulie: How did Franklin Perez look yesterday?
Keith Law: Good, not outstanding, but the makings of a good mid-rotation starter. Chance for three pitches, 92-96, secondary wasn’t plus, threw a lot of strikes.

Ryan: When reading about Jaren Kendall, based on the toolshe kind of reminds me of George Springer. Besides Springer being a bit more polished at the same age, is there really much that separates the two? Thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Springer was stronger & more physical, and his swing worked better mechanically, while he lacked a two-strike approach.

Balor: What odds would you give to Nate Pearson ending up a starter vs. a reliever?
Keith Law: 50/50? Huge FB, but no one thinks he has a consistently above average second pitch yet.

Squire: Any non-first round names associated with the Phillies?
Keith Law: Nope. No one knows who’s going in the top 30. Projecting the second round is like rolling dice.

Phil: Hi Keith. What’s one player who you think will be picked later in the draft (so not first round) who you think could end up a star?
Keith Law: I don’t know the third tier of prospects as well this year as I have in past years so I don’t have any great answers on that – but I do like Stephen Jennings, Kyle Hurt, and Blaine Enlow, all pretty high on my Big Board but not likely to to go first round.

Paul: Hey Keith. Thanks for the chat. I keep reading that the Dbacks are interested in Pavan Smith, and reading about him really does not excite me. Is there any chance he can play a position other than first base? And how much power do you think he’ll end up having? Thanks!
Keith Law: First base only. I think average power. Some people think more. I’ve never seen him really hit anything hard, and to me that’s a swing for contact rather than power.

Trixie: Who’s your favorite mystery writer? Have you ever read anything by Sue Grafton?
Keith Law: Still Agatha Christie. Never read anything by Grafton or other mass-market authors like her.

Dave: Keith, thanks for all your draft coverage. Do you think the A’s will take a HS OF (Beck, maybe Lewis) or college bat (Smith, Hiura) at 6?
Keith Law: I think Beck is their guy, unless Gore gets there. Not on Lewis or Smith.

Nate: Thanks for the chat Keith! What are your thoughts on the recent rumors that the Twins might be trying to cut a deal with Royce Lewis at 1-1 and, if they do, who might they be considering at 35?
Keith Law: That’s been rumored for a few weeks, but I don’t see why Lewis would take an underslot deal at 1. He’s going 4 or 5 at worst, so why would he sign for less than McKay, who’s also going 4 or 5 if he doesn’t go 1, and has less leverage than Lewis does? I could be way off but I wonder if there’s some posturing here to negotiate McKay (or someone else) down.

Will: Michael Chavis is showing some power at High A this season. How much, if at all, does this change Chavis’s prospect stock?
Keith Law: He was hurt last year but didn’t disclose it or miss any time. So I’d rather say that my rankings of him off last year were the error, and he’ll resume his correct place now that he’s health and performing again.

Kevin: Why do you think Minnesota is passing on Greene for a college arm?
Keith Law: For increased certainty.

Moltar: Am I wrong to be kind of underwhelmed with the mock selection of Lange to the Mets? His scouting reports don’t get me as excited as Pearson or Peterson if they’re set on an arm (I’d rather they catch my fave pokemon Warmoth).
Keith Law: I would take Warmoth there in a heartbeat. Lange for me is almost certainly a reliever.

Craig: Every draft preview I have seen has the Brewers taking a HS outfielder with a comment about how MIL keeps collecting outfielders with a certain profile (speedy, plus defense, good bat with potential for developing power). To what extent is that an organizational plan vs. collecting guys that happen to be available at that time/spot?
Keith Law: I haven’t made that comment – I don’t think that’s their profile or type, just that they take BPA. They could take Kendall too, college guy who can run and has power but needs a lot of swing help, along the lines of Montgomery taking other top talents who got farther down the draft than they should have.

Joe-Nathan: I remember Nathan Kirby opting out of the draft by refusing to subject himself to drug testing a few years ago, so my question is there anything onerous about being draft eligible? If not why would anyone, like Joe Boyle, declare themselves ineligible for the draft????
Keith Law: It’s possible the player didn’t think he could pass the drug test. It’s also possible the player is just taking bad advice from the college coach, too. I would never send any young pitcher to Notre Dame; Mik Aoki has a long history of overusing pitchers and no history of developing them.

Andy: Hi, Keith! Hope all is well with you and your family. Not sure if this chat is solely about tonight’s mock, but I had a non-draft question for you. Have you had a chance to see Lucas Giolito over the past month or so? I’ve been lucky enough to catch most of his starts this year and he’s never looked better than he has of late. He’s confident in the curve and has this really neat changeup, too. Wanted to see if you’ve heard anything about him lately as the Sox unravel and piece back together his motion and mechanics.
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him but have talked to folks who have and am hearing just that – he’s getting close to where he was before Mike Maddux etc. changed his delivery.

Kevin: How much projection is left for Gore? Seems like a safe choice (for a HS pick), but am I wrong thinking that he’ll be nothing more that a #3/4 in time?
Keith Law: Totally disagree. Much more upside than that.

Casey (Saint Paul, MN): Hello Keith, Are teams likely to overlook Kyle Wright’s most recent game or is that something that could actually impact his draft position?
Keith Law: You consider everything. It’s a factor, but shouldn’t be weighted more heavily than other starts (hello, recency bias).

Adam: Has the lack of over-the-fence power shown by Jorge Ona been concerning for some scouts?
Keith Law: That’s an ambiguously-worded question. Am I concerned? Not really. It’s two months.

Adam: Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect. Heard anything on him?
Keith Law: He’s #99 on my Big Board.

Adam: Any teams tied to Mark Vientos?
Keith Law: Could sneak into the teens, likely in the 20-35 range, doesn’t get past 41 Atlanta.

Adam: Does Mackenzie Gore’s mechanics give evaluators some pause? His hip swing/ leg kick motion seems like it would be an injury concern as he ages.
Keith Law: On the contrary, I’ve had scouts praise him for it, saying it demonstrates how athletic he is.

Joe-Nathan: I get that Seth Romero is talented but how can a staff full of educated adults justify giving this kid who clearly has issues over a million dollars by drafting him? The odds of him imploding are so high that
Keith Law: Your question cut off, but I think what you think. This is a bad idea.

banksy_: No question today, just want to say thank you for all that you do for your readers. I wouldn’t follow the draft as closely if it weren’t for you and many other writers that do a fantastic job of educating readers on the nuances of scouting and projecting amateur talent. But especially you, since I’ve really enjoyed your book so far! Looking forward to passing it on/recommending it to friends and family when I do finish it!
Keith Law: Thanks. Big fan of your street art, too.

Randy: In years past, you did a great job picking out Conforto and Benintendi as picks that had a good chance to move through the minors quickly. Whom would be your best players for similar advancement in today’s draft?
Keith Law: Warmoth is my guy this year. Haseley too, but Warmoth is the one whose swing I like, and I think he stays at short.

Justin: To a draft newbie, if the consensus top talent by all accounts is Greene, why would the Twins not take him first? Higher probability of flameout as a high schooler than a college player?
Keith Law: He’s not the consensus by all accounts. He’s #1 on some boards, not all, maybe not even a majority.

Andrew: Have you heard the Nats connected to anyone besides the usual 4 of Romero, Lange, Schmidt, and Houck?
Keith Law: I think they’re taking Romero, haven’t heard them on Houck.

Intramural Legend: Is McKay being underrated at this point? Statistically (pitching specific), he was much better than Wright
Keith Law: Wright was better in the second half; he improved while McKay seemed to tire (unsurprisingly). And durability is a factor teams will consider.

Bob: Hey, Keith. Are you in Bristol to do TV today for the draft? Is there a special show?
Keith Law: I’m home. No TV, no more BBTN, so I’ll sleep in my own bed tonight.

Mike Trout: Thinking about a new boardgame and leaning towards 7 wonders, any advice? Have enjoyed Catan, Carcassone, & Ticket to Ride
Keith Law: 7 Wonders is fantastic. Probably a step up in strategy and complexity from what you’ve played.

AJ: Hey Keith– loved your appearance on OTL today. You have the White Sox taking JB Bukauskas over bats you’ve stated they’re linked to like Jeren Kendall. Do they have a specific interest in Bukauskas from what you know? Do you think they’d take an under-slot HS OF like Adell or Beck over a college pitcher if available?
Keith Law: If you look at my mock, those 27 pairings of team and player are all based on industry rumors. Someone told me the White Sox like Bukauskas. I can’t say who, but I can tell you everything in there is based on what I considered solid intel.

Jack: What are your thoughts on Luke Heimlich’s future? Will he get drafted? Has he paid enough for his mistake?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’ll be drafted inside of the top ten rounds. After that, there’s little to no opportunity cost if you take him and fail to sign him, so then it becomes possible.

Ian: Is McKay at #1 a mistake?
Keith Law: No. I think taking Lewis over him, Wright, or Greene might be a mistake … but I can’t even say “would be” because who the heck knows? I can’t even get consensus on what kind of hitting prospect Lewis is from scouts and execs I’ve asked.

Bret: As a general rule, how much of the info that you get (or that other analysts are getting) today is just smoke being put out by team’s to lower the price on a player they’re targeting or impact other team’s decisions? (Not suggesting you always come forward with this info, I’m sure you have a process to determine what’s real and what’s not, too)
Keith Law: Don’t think I’ve heard much of that today.

Tim (KC): Keith, disregarding your mocks, how would you draft if you were the GM of each of the teams with top 5 picks?
Keith Law: That’s what my Big Board represents – ignoring signability too, plus stuff I don’t get, like medicals or drug test results.

MetsFan: Can the Mets get Warmoth or Huira? Would love both
Keith Law: No shot on Hiura. Warmoth maybe.

Patrick: When do you think Canning goes?
Keith Law: I think someone’s second pick. Kid was overused by UCLA for three years, and now there’s something on his MRI teams don’t like. I wonder if those two are connected in any way.

Pramit: Have you heard if the Jays are interested in Nick Allen? If so, could you see them taking him at 22 if they believe he’ll be unavailable at 28?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard them with him.

Ken: If Burger gets to the Mets do you think they take him over aforementioned pitching options?
Keith Law: I think so. He’s got a bunch of teams in the 20-27 range that would take him.

Ike: Do you wish that teams could trade their picks like the NBA and NFL?
Keith Law: Yes, it’d make today much more fun/interesting.

Ryan: Do you think there is any chance Kyle Wright falls to the phillies with some people reporting under slot deals?
Keith Law: Zero.

DA: Any chance Minnesota goes Lewis #1 and uses extra money on Shane Baz at #35?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Tim: Any chance on Kendall going in the 6-10 range?
Keith Law: Brewers would be the only team in there who might take him, from what I know.

Chris: I’m moving to the Cape. Who should I try to see in a game this summer?
Keith Law: Just go to whatever games are nearby and enjoy them.

Drew: If Otani were in this draft class where would he go?
Keith Law: 1-1, pitcher only.
Keith Law: Bear in mind he’s also a professional, and older & more experienced than everyone else in the class, so it’s a flawed comparison.

JR: Is info come fast and furious all day today, or at some point do you hit “calm before the storm” point where nothing much happens until the draft starts.
Keith Law: It’s been fairly quiet today. Around 5 pm or so the fit will hit the shan, so to speak.

Dan P: How many guys in this draft would plug right into your top 100 prospects? Who would they be? Thanks for all your hard draft work!
Keith Law: In a typical year, I get 12-16 guys from a June draft in the next January’s top 100. I don’t do midseason 100s, however.

Jim: Any pitchers that could come up and help in the bullpen later this season, like Sale did in his draft year?
Keith Law: Lange.

Dan P: Sad to not see you live with Longenhagen tonight. Will you be blogging live or anything?
Keith Law: I’ll tweet (via the ESPN Shortstop app, so you’ll see a tweet and then a link if I wrote more than 140 chars) about each of the first round picks, and then I’ll write up a recap with thoughts on day one.

Jared S: Kind of funny Twins rumors went from Greene early, to McKaey, then to Wright, then to maybe McKay and now Lewis. Wild.
Keith Law: Eh, I don’t think there were rumors of the Twins with Greene. It’s been mostly McKay/Wright for the last month.

Nick: Thanks, as always, for the chats klaw. About to be first time father here (baby boy was due yesterday). Any advice for making the first few months here as happy and comfortable as possible for my wife?
Keith Law: It worked much better for us when we decided to alternate nights for feeding our daughter (we bottle-fed) – I’d take both feedings one night, my wife would take both the next night. We got somewhat more quality sleep out of that.

Devon: The rumors of Kyle Wright falling to the Braves have me excited because he didn’t seem attainable recently, but would you have any concern about over-crowding of SP prospects? Obviously the bust rate for pitching prospects is extremely high, but if the Braves drafted a polished college arm like Wright there would potentially be a major crunch for innings in Mississippi or Gwinnett in a year or two
Keith Law: Can’t have too many starters. They’ll figure it out somehow.

Patrick: While I fully recognize MLB is a completely different animal than say NFL or NBA where you can say team X needs a linebacker or a point guard, I still think it interesting how a team is linked to say a college starting pitcher and a high school third baseman. Is that solely because they grade out equal to each other on a team’s big board, or is that more a function of different voices within the organization fighting for they guys they are really high on?
Keith Law: Because they grade out similarly on the main board. You have to rank them all, regardless of how different they are. Imagine how much worse it’ll be if MLB ever forces a worldwide draft on us.

Dallas: Lewis takes an underslot deal at #1 ($7.0) because he won’t get $7.0 anywhere else.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s true at all. Couple of teams below that would give him $7MM if they could.

ck: Who cares what is on your bookshelf when you are on TV? Stupid trolls need to get a life….
Keith Law: It never ceases to amaze me how mad some people will get over the most trivial things.

Mike J: Hi Keith. Hearing any new news regarding the Pirates’ thinking? Thanks for your time. Folks appreciate all of your hard work on this draft and being accessible to answer our questions.
Keith Law: Nothing new since the mock yesterday. The one pick I would change from that is the Yanks – think they’d take Pratto if there rather than Peterson, so Peterson then drops a few spots, maybe to the Giants, Mets, Orioles range, no worse than Toronto 22.

justin: Any players have a chance at cracking your top 20 baseball prospects upon being drafted?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Manny: Other than normal reliever attrition, am I crazy in thinking that Bukauskas is likely to be a RP?
Keith Law: I think there’s a very good chance of it, yes.

Adam D.: Please make me feel better about the Giants inevitably taking Evan White. Please?
Keith Law: Some folks think he runs well enough to play the outfield, maybe center. That would make him much more interesting.

Joe (Green Bay, WI): Comments like “…Nothing more than a #3/4,” are bothersome. It’s as if guys that profile as mid-rotation starters are found on trees.
Keith Law: Look at what they get in free agency! There have long been fans getting mad at me for saying someone “only” projects as a fourth starter. Those guys earn eight figures now.

John: Could taking Romero be a desperation move to try and help an awful Nats bullpen? Also, when you say you do not like his delivery, do you mean it could cause injury? Thanks as always.
Keith Law: He’s already had injury issues, so yes, and also I don’t think that’s a delivery that he’s going to repeat enough for average command.

Tim: Any feeling that someone other than McKay, Wright, Greene, Gore go in the top 3? Surprise pick like Moniack last year?
Keith Law: Moniak we knew as a 1-1 possibility about three weeks out. That hasn’t happened this year.

Daniel: Any thoughts on Drew Ellis? Would he be better served coming back to Louisville, or is he thought of highly enough to be a top 2-3 round pick?
Keith Law: He’s going to be drafted tonight, I think, but his swing-at-everything style scares me.

Frank: Which of the top names are being advised by Boras?
Keith Law: I do not print this information until players have signed, because the NCAA is the worst.

Ridley Kemp: Howdy Keith, I have a non-baseball Arizona question for you: My wife and I want to move to a smaller town in the desert. We love but can’t afford Marfa, so we’re looking at Bisbee. Have you ever been there, and do you have any impressions to share? I want the truth to be said.
Keith Law: Never been. Sedona was lovely, though.

Matt: Do any colleges have set-ups that allow them to track some of the new statistical measures we’re seeing a lot of in the majors right now (e.g., exit velocity, spin rate, etc.)? If so, are those stats shared with MLB teams?
Keith Law: I believe a few have set up some of the equipment for this.

James: how good is hiura’s bat? Good enough to stick him in left field and let him get to the majors asap?
Keith Law: Can’t play left if you can’t throw at all.

Garrett: What are the ceiling for Chris Seise and Ryan Vilade?
Keith Law: Both are on my Big Board … everyday regulars, but both with some bat risks. Seise seems like he needs to get a lot stronger.

Andy: Not a draft question, but….what should Tigers fans take of Manning still being in extended spring? Are they holding him back to hold down his workload, or is he not ready for full season ball yet?
Keith Law: Had trouble throwing strikes in March. I think they couldn’t send him out.

Joe-Nathan: I’m planning to get you to sign my book in Toronto. Any specific restaurants/coffee shops from your blue jay days you are excited about for your visit?
Keith Law: I haven’t been there since 2005, so I’m treating this like a first visit. I’ll only be on the ground about 24 hours.

Jay: Not a draft question, but how much research or questions are raised internally about players eye sight as they age? We know bat speed declines with age, but eye sight in general does as well for most people. Obviously it’s really hard to combat this but how much is this talked about with clubs when signing guys or doing medical research on them and do you think this is something that eventually become a bigger deal as teams try to discover the next market inefficiency in the health/biometrics area?
Keith Law: Most teams want vision test results for potential draftees, and some teams will crush a guy with poor results. So it’s definitely a factor tonight, but I don’t hear it much for veteran players.

Wally: hey Keith – love the book. Was curious about your comment in the mock draft about Romero (‘at a certain point it becomes indistinguishable from parody ‘). Is that a shot at the Nats or the industry generally for considering a screwup because he has talent?
Keith Law: Want to make an educated guess who the Nats are taking? Find the most famous player still on the board.

Jim: Where would Luis Robert go in this draft class?
Keith Law: Probably middle of the first round.

Dave: Keith, non-draft question, how many MLB stadiums have you been to?
Keith Law: I think 27. I’ll add one in July at the Futures Game. I’d still need Seattle and Texas.

Quinn: Likelihood of Kyle Wright falling out of the top 5?
Keith Law: Under 5%.

addoeh: So no trip to Omaha then?
Keith Law: For me? No, we’re not doing BBTN any more, so no BBTNs from Omaha either.

Wade: When is Rooker taken?
Keith Law: Tonight, somewhere between 30-50 is my guess.

Danny: Sorry if you’ve answered his before, but who are the players in mind that teams cutting a deal want to fall in the supplemental 1st or 2nd round?
Keith Law: Prep arms, largely. Carlson, Enlow, Jennings, Baz (in theory, doubt it happens), Crouse, Heatherly, etc.

Noah: Who has the final say for a draft pick, is it the GM, Farm Director, or President of Baseball Ops?
Keith Law: First round it’s usually the GM, although he may simply choose to take who the scouting director wants. After that it’s typically the scouting director, unless there’s a deal already in place.

Steve: FYI, if you think having Sandy Hook Truthers on TV isn’t a thing NBC should do, you can tell them about it here: http://www.nbc.com/contact-us
Keith Law: It’s definitely not something any tv station should do, but let’s face it, the networks will do anything for eyeballs at this point.

Scott C: This isn’t a draft question, but did you get to see any of Newcomb’s debut over the weekend?
Keith Law: Nope. Didn’t watch any MLB games this weekend – I was either doing draft prep or at the Blue Rocks’ games Saturday and Sunday.

Kyle: About where does JJ Schwarz go at this point?
Keith Law: Fourth or fifth round? Would he even sign there, or go back to UF to try to come out after a better senior year?

addoeh: Unless you have been there already this year, new Atlanta ballpark as well.
Keith Law: oh that’s right. Boondoogle Park is on the list.

Andy: What are the chances the a player not in your top 100 is taken tonight? I guess the question is, have you heard other guys getting mentioned towards the end, that you have outside 100.
Keith Law: 100% chance of that. Last year there were a couple – JB Woodman, the guy Ole Miss fans kept claiming was a 5-tool player, was the first, I think. (He has a 39% K rate as a 22-year-old in low-A this year.) The Pirates also skunked everyone with their last pick of day one, Travis “Monarch of the Glen” Macgregor.

Jerry: To combat the way some college coaches abuse their best arms, what is keeping the NCAA from instituting pitch limits and mandatory rest periods, the same way every amateur level in America is currently doing?
Keith Law: This would assume the NCAA cares one iota about keeping pitchers healthy.

Steve: When you say Hiura can’t throw “at all,” how bad are you talking? Ben Revere bad? Or an actual bottom-of-the-scale 20 arm?
Keith Law: He didn’t play the field all spring because of whatever’s going on with his arm. That’s why I listed him as a DH/2B.

Mo: Not a question, but as an African-American and lifelong baseball fan, Hunter Greene might already be my new favorite player
Keith Law: I was extremely impressed when I sat down with him. His answers weren’t canned or hackneyed; he’s intelligent and his answers were really thoughtful.

Dalton: Any thoughts on Chase Vallot this weekend? 129 wRC+ in A+ from a 20yo is nice with all the walks and power, even if he’s striking out more than me when I try to ask girls out on a date.
Keith Law: He’s terrible. It’s a negative approach at the plate. FWIW, I don’t think wRC+ is a useful stat for discussing prospects.

Joey Bag-O-Donuts: I appreciate you not mentioning me and my draft prospects this year, Keith. You have brought up my name every year for what seems like a decade. Maybe this year, without all of the hype, will be the year my dream finally comes true.
Keith Law: I gave you enough love in Smart Baseball, Joey.

Andy: The ESPN comments were annoyed with the fact that you “made it a black thing” about Greene.
Keith Law: As if I had made him black.

Brett: Hi Keith. Thank you for all your draft coverage. I have a question about KJ Harrison. It seems not many, if anyone, sees him as a C anymore. Do you just think the bat isn’t good enough to make
Keith Law: I don’t think the bat is good enough for him to be worth a top 3 rounds pick at another position.

Dalton: Care to clarify on wRC+ for prospects? Do you think linear weights are different in the minors? The only complaint I think could be that wRC+ adjusts for league but the not park (in the minors that is).
Keith Law: Why are linear weights the goal, though? Woodman has a 108 wRC+, so above average, but he just pulled his strikeout rate down under 40% in the last few days. So he does good things on contact (perhaps a function of being old for the league), but makes such infrequent contact that it won’t matter. We’re not looking for the most valuable players in the Midwest League, but the most projectable ones.

Brad: What is the boardgame you play most these days?
Keith Law: Usually new stuff – Santorini, Barenpark, and Unlock! the last three – with the family, older stuff more online.

Jeb: When is the actual first pick tonight (as opposed to the beginning of the broadcast)?
Keith Law: 7:05 pm, I think.

Dan: I know it may not be realistic, but do you think there’s a chance McKay ends up as a reliever/1B/DH? If he were to be an above-average reliever for 50 innings and say, Brandon Belt at the dish, he’s a 5-win player. He is after all, the best two way player, maybe ever in college.
Keith Law: I don’t. I think he’s too good at both to end up in that role. You’re talking brooks kieschnick.

Ed: Did you see Wonder Woman? We don’t go to the movies that often anymore with the time to in-home availability shrinking, but we had a great time watching this one on the big screen. My 11-year-old daughter had been looking forward to it since she was about 9, and she thoroughly enjoyed it.
Keith Law: No, but we plan to see it somewhere. I haven’t seen a movie in a few weeks now because of this draft nonsense.

Tallulah: Duke Uselton? As a huge Zootopia fan, I can only shake my head. Re Burger and scouts agreeing he won’t stay at 3rd – is he 1B/DH only, or could profile at a corner OF spot?
Keith Law: First base only, I think. And that was my favorite line in Zootopia.
Keith Law: OK, the phone is starting to buzz again so I’m going to wrap this up. I’ll be on Twitter tonight and there will be a live file running on ESPN that gathers my quick notes on each of the first round picks, and I’ll shoot for a chat tomorrow afternoon once we are through round five. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!