With the Oscars coming up tonight, I’ve put together this post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I’ve reviewed. I’ve seen all of the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay nominees, but missed a few others due to my schedule, my job change, and especially getting sick around the holidays, so I’m only at about 29 films for the calendar year 2019 so far, with maybe a half-dozen others I want to see as they hit streaming. Once I get those, I’ll do an actual ranking, but I know I’m missing a couple of critical titles for now.
Best Picture
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Parasite
Who will win: 1917
Who should win: Parasite
I hope I’m wrong about 1917; it’s fine, but nothing more, and I would much rather see Parasite, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, or Little Women (which has zero shot) take this honor. I am just guessing that voters will see 1917 as an achievement, or as a filmmaker’s film, with its one-shot gimmick (which is almost certain to get Roger Deakins his second Best Cinematography win) and attempt to imitate real time.
Snubs: I saw fewer movies outside of the nominees this year, so I missed Uncut Gems, but of films I did see, Knives Out, The Farewell, and Pain & Glory were all better than Jojo Rabbit and Joker.
Best Director
1917 (Sam Mendes)
The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)
Joker (Todd Phillips)
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho)
Who will win: Mendes
Who should win: Bong
Snubs: Greta Gerwig getting passed over for Little Women in favor of Phillips was the worst snub in any category this year.
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who will win: Phoenix
Who should win: Banderas
I would pick at least three of the other four nominees – Banderas, DiCaprio, or Pryce – over Phoenix, but the award has been presumed to be his for months now.
Snubs: Kang-Ho Song for Parasite, although I think it would be unprecedented for two actors in non-English-speaking roles to get nominated in the same year.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who will win: Zellweger
Who should win: Zellweger
I still haven’t seen Harriet or Bombshell, but of the three nominees I’ve seen, Zellweger is my pick. She completely becomes Judy Garland, and as much as I’m skeptical of performances where the actor just plays a real person, she’s really that good.
Snubs: I don’t have any for this category, especially since I’ve only seen 3/5. I thought Awkwafina was good in The Farewell but wouldn’t take her over Ronan, Zellweger, or Johansson.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Who will win: Pitt
Who should win: Pesci
I have no objection to Pitt winning; he’d be my second choice behind Pesci. I still haven’t seen A Beautiful Day, unfortunately.
Snubs: Christian Bale gave the best and most pivotal performance in Ford v. Ferrari; I would have nominated him over Pacino or Hopkins.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who will win: Dern
Who should win: Pugh
This is likely to be my biggest disagreement of the night; Pugh was amazing, and brought something new to an old and familiar character. Dern was good, but the role wasn’t all that complex, and she was better in Little Women than she was in Marriage Story. I haven’t seen Bombshell, and I will not give Richard Jewell any of my money given its defamatory treatment of a real journalist who is no longer alive to defend herself.
Snubs: I thought there was enough momentum for Jennifer Lopez to get a nod for Hustlers. I would have picked her over Johansson, at least.
Best International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Who will win: Parasite
Who should win: Parasite
The lock of the night. I will see Les Misérables, probably when it hits Amazon Prime in a few weeks or months; I saw the shortlisted Atlantique, but wouldn’t take it over the other four nominees. Honeyland was visually interesting, but I wouldn’t vote for it here or over American Factory for Best Documentary Feature. I also would especially like to see The Traitor, Italy’s submission for the award this year, and just learned that the UK’s submission, The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind, is on Netflix.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Who will win: Little Women
Who should win: Little Women
This is the token award they’ll give Gerwig after snubbing her for Best Director. I assume it also comes with a pat on the head.
Best Writing, Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Parasite
Who will win: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Who should win: Parasite
I loved Knives Out, but I can’t push for that over Parasite or Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
Snubs: Pedro Almodóvar should have gotten a nod for Pain & Glory over 1917, the script for which is the film’s biggest weakness.