In This Corner of the World.

In This Corner of the World is a Japanese anime film based on a manga of the same name, and I present it here as part of our ongoing #BetterThanBossBaby series, looking at films eligible for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature that were passed over in favor of that unfunny, unimaginative, big-budget film. This one, as with The Girl Without Hands, is critically acclaimed in its own right, and features some gorgeous animation that draws on both conventional anime styles and alludes to many painters of the western canon, while also telling an epic drama that has much in common the works of great Japanese authors like Junichiro Tanizaki and Yasunari Kawabata.

In This Corner is narrated by Suzu, a young girl who loves to draw and who grew up in Japan between the wars, turning 18 in 1944 when a young man, Shusaku, arrives at the house and asks her parents for her hand in marriage. The bulk of the film takes places between that point and the end of the war, and follows Suzu through what first looks like it will be a traditional story of a young woman struggling to adapt to life with her new family, but what then becomes a broader tragedy when the town where they live, Kure, is raided with increasing frequency by Allied forces. Suzu endures several calamities that would break the spirit of many people, but she is fortunate in one sense, as her home town, where her parents still lived, was Hiroshima. It’s available to rent now on iTunes or amazon.

Suzu’s drawings form a critical through line in this film even as its tone and her circumstances change dramatically, and even when she can no longer draw as she once did, recollections of those drawings and the memories associated with them continue to drive the narrative forward. This thread is critical because there is no traditional story arc in this movie; the war and time push us towards the conclusion, but the movie lacks a second, entirely fiction plot that might have been grafted on top of this. The marriage between Suzu and Shusaku is not depicted as some great romance; there’s even a one-that-got-away subplot that appears a few times in the film that underlines how Suzu was not the master of her own destiny. She’s put through the ringer – the film doesn’t stint on the horrors of war, and serves as an inadvertent but potent reminder of how awful our actions in Yemen have been – but continues to grow and evolve as an adult because life forces her to do so.

The backdrop and Suzu’s artwork are really stunning, and easily form the film’s best attribute, given the somewhat aimless plot – although I think this is all aimless by design. I caught allusions to Van Gogh and Monet, at the very least, and I’ve mentioned before what a philistine I am when it comes to art. The renderings of the landscapes, buildings, and even warships are gorgeous and meticulous, giving the film a lush, textured feel like you’d expect from CG (think of the verdant backdrops in Tangled) but with the hand-drawn look of anime.

That aimlessness in the plot, however, seems rather deliberate. We think we have control over our lives, but that’s only the case until some greater force comes in and reminds us that we are merely fighting for control against a tide we can’t stop. The war isn’t there, and then it’s a tangent, and then it subsumes their lives, becoming a daily threat and leading to food shortages and rationing. Keiko, Suzu’s widowed sister-in-law, arrives not long after Suzu moves in with her in-laws, and serves as a figurative harbinger of what’s to come, pushing Suzu out of her new role as the dutiful daughter-in-law and taking out her own grief on the younger girl, who is powerless to defend herself given her age and the gender roles of the time. She’s pushed along by forces well beyond her, often that she doesn’t understand, and becomes the hero because it’s that or perish.

I know one of you commented recently that this was the best animated film of last year, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue against that, but I did have a few quibbles with the production, especially the abrupt ending to many scenes. Some of those scenes only last a few seconds, as in a few showing the family eating their meager dinners, which interrupts the moderate ebb and flow of the story in a way I found annoying – you can’t maintain a mood or atmosphere like that. The young men are also drawn too similarly, and there were a few points in the script where I was fairly sure I missed some detail because they jumped too quickly to the next speaker or scene. If you’re thinking of this for family viewing, there are a few scenes of violence that are quite graphic, and the content as a whole is not appropriate for kids. The bombing of Hiroshima is seen from a distance, but the effects are described in a few ways that would also likely disturb younger viewers.

While the story was imperfectly told in In This Corner of the World, it also has the broad scope you might expect to see in a highly regarded live-action film; if you made this into a ‘regular’ movie with famous actors (the English voice work is all done by folks who are not household names here), it would be discussed as a Best Picture hopeful. That makes it so much more ambitious than many animated films, even many live-action ones, and that along with the remarkable, beautiful animation have it rivaling Coco and The Girl Without Hands for the top spot among animated films last year. And I think you know what’s in last.

Klawchat 3/8/18.

New board game review at Paste of the light, fast-moving card game Smile; and new Insider post looking at who the top rookies might be for 2018.

Keith Law: So numb, can’t even react. Klawchat.

What’s in a name?: Did you know there was never a major league baseball player with the first name of Tyler before 1993? Now there have been about 40. The Yanks set a new record with 4 Tylers last year. There were no Brandons before 2000; now there have been about 50. The 2012 A’s had FIVE.
Keith Law: I believe in 2013 we had four players in the first round or so named Hunter. We gave our daughter a name that had never appeared on any of those top 100 baby names list to avoid something like this (plus we loved the name we gave her anyway).

Joseph: I looked forward to these every week. I heard reports that Vlad Guerrero Jr is THICC right now (not in a bad way). But it seems more likely he moves from 3B to 1B. What percentages of likelihood would you put on it?
Keith Law: I’m not certain you have to move him to 1b; he’s a big boy, but not unathletic, and maybe he could stand in an outfield corner. Probably 40/60 on him staying at third.

Jo-Nathan: Knowing how you feel about Tim Tebow, what were your thoughts on Michael Jordan as a ‘prospect’ in 94?
Keith Law: I was 20 and busy finishing my senior thesis. I really had no idea at the time whether it was plausible or a publicity stunt or something to do with gambling.

addoeh: Who signs first; Jake Arrieta or Kirk Cousins?
Keith Law: Did Arrieta solicit suggestions on social media?

One Klawwi Boi: You mentioned in chat weeks ago that Jo Adell has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2018 draft. If he has a productive year, does he vault into top 20 consideration going into 2019? Potentially higher? Is his ceiling a 65 FV?
Keith Law: I don’t love putting specific numbers like that ‘future value’ on players this young & far away. I think he has superstar upside, but also huge risk … early last spring I had scouts telling me they were questioning whether he could hit at all, talking about him on the mound, and then he hurt his arm but started making more/better contact. I do think his full-season debut will tell us a lot more about how advanced a hitter he is – whether he’s a Trout/Vlad Jr type who already has a good enough approach to race up the minors or will be more a level-by-level guy or is something even less than that (which I doubt, but it’s possible).

Hello: My friend wants me to ask you: “Is Rafael Devers going to be Baby Miggy?”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put that on any prospect.

Romo: If you were in a front office, would you have removed Seth Romero from your draft board?
Keith Law: I would have, given what we know about his behavior, his medicals, and his delivery. It is a legit plus-plus changeup, though, and above-average velocity, from the left side. I understand why he went where he did, but there are risks I’ll stomach and some I won’t.

Eric: I don’t expect you to know the Vegas win totals off the top of your head, but are there any teams projected for the bottom half of baseball that you could see surprising people this year if a couple dominoes fall the right way?
Keith Law: I’ll look at that later this month. Right now I’ve been more focused on draft stuff.

Faria: Does Faria have a future as a starter? If so, what’s his ceiling, #4?
Keith Law: Yes. League-average sort of upside.

Garrett: It’ll be at least 2020 before Walker Buehler pitches 200 innings, right?
Keith Law: I’ll put 50/50 odds on him never pitching 200 innings in a season.
Keith Law: And that’s not a criticism; I think he’s potentially elite, but unlikely to handle what is now a top-end workload.

Joseph: I’m making Pastrami for St Paddy’s day and I’ve never done it before (though I’ve smoked brisket half a dozen times). Was wondering if you had any advice for me and wish me luck!
Keith Law: I have never made brisket in any form, sorry. Even when I did eat beef, the time required & the quantity produced made it a poor investment.

Mike: What’s the deal with Dayton Moore about dragging the Royals into his uber-conservative social stances? First the Royals teamed with an anti-abortion group as a marketing partner (and declined to let Planned Parenthood participate in a similar marketing program), and now the Royals are hosting anti-porn workshops for their players. Moore can believe whatever he wants and support whatever social cause he feels best represents his views. But to drag the Royals into it from an official (i.e., team-sanctioned) POV….Huh???
Keith Law: I had the same thought last night. He is absolutely entitled to his personal views and to conduct himself in a manner consistent with them. This anti-porn thing is a bad joke, though; the individual and societal effects of pornography have been researched for decades, and no link has been found between pornography viewing or availability and things like sexual assault rates. (Porn may actually reduce such rates, although I think the relationship is weak.) You don’t like porn? Absolutely fine. But what the Royals are doing here and with their anti-abortion partners is bringing religion into a secular work place, and I would hope a Royals player would exercise his rights and fight back.

Jay: Would you give Andujar the starting job at third?
Keith Law: Yes, although I think they’ll give it to Drury now and aim to have Andujar up by midyear.

Jay: Kannapolis or Winston-Salem – where would you start Robert out?
Keith Law: I hope to see him this weekend, at which point I may have a different answer, but my gut right now is Kannapolis. Easy to move him up if he overwhelms the league; hard to demote a guy this high-profile.

TJ: Do you think that Moustakas is just netter off waiting until June once the comp pick goes? He doesn’t seem to have a lot to gain by signing a short term deal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andrew: Keith – Thanks for the time, always enjoy the chats. Quick question with a little broader scope – do have any thoughts or heard anything on the grapevine to explain the Yankees improvement in player development over the last ~5 years?
Keith Law: They’ve shifted their draft philosophy somewhat, especially with higher picks; they’ve changed how they develop pitchers, including working with weighted balls, which has led to a lot of guys gaining velocity; and they’ve been more focused on getting and retaining prospects in trades.

Rodney: Hi Keith, thanks for doing these chats! The biggest knock against Matt Thaiss seems to be the lack of power he’s shown. Do his 2 home runs in 22 spring training PA signal anything, or is typical spring training stats noise?
Keith Law: Everything in spring training stats is noise. It’s even worse in Arizona because the entire league tends to favor home run production.

Nick: Andrew Vaughn is off to a great start. How does his bat compare to the 1B-only bats in the 2018 class like Beer and Baker?
Keith Law: Beer isn’t 1B only. I don’t think Vaughn or Baker is a first rounder.

Dingus McGee: I hear a lot about spring training stats don’t mean much, if anything, but what do teams/scouts/those in the know look at during March games?
Keith Law: You can still look at players to see, from the seats or in Trackman data, if something tangible has changed. A new delivery, a reduced spin rate, a different launch angle, a new pitch, more velocity … those are real changes that can impact this season’s performance, but the tiny samples and inconsistent competition of spring training makes those stats useless.

JJ: Ohtani’s a virtual lock to be chosen the AL ROY, but who’s going to win it in the NL?
Keith Law: He’s a lock? What if he only makes 20 starts? Or gets hurt? You can’t just gift anyone the award right now. I looked at the top impact rookies for this year in a short piece today for Insiders.

Buckner 86: Does Jose Berrios take another step forward this year? Can he be a top 20 SP? Thanks
Keith Law: Step forward, yes. Top 20 SP, no.

Matt: Was Odorizzi really worth nothing? Put up 5 WAR from ’15-’16. Hard to believe some SP-thirsty team couldn’t do better than Palacios?
Keith Law: I believe i mentioned in a previous chat that his back issues are a major concern.

Jaime: Isn’t it hypocritical of the alphabet news networks to demonize firearms when people who sit on their board also sit on the board of defense contractors, who are responsible for far worse across the globe?
Keith Law: That is the tu quoque fallacy.

Devon: The fiancee bought me a cool boardgame for Valentine’s Day called Hive. I searched for it on your site and it looks like you haven’t reviewed it. Have you not played it before or did it not make your top 100?
Keith Law: Haven’t played it.

CD: In regards to the top unsigned FA, do you think they lack any offers, or they just lack offers they like like and find acceptable?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they’re getting few offers and the ones they’re getting are way below expectations. At some point, though, don’t you just say, I’ll take the best one-year deal anyone will offer, and go from there?

BE: With the cost benefit of young players being so high, wouldn’t it make sense to better prepare them with better nutrition and instruction before they reach the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but because that product isn’t visible now, more teams spend that money on the major-league roster.

Archie: Who do you see handling 1B for the Astros until Gurriel comes back?
Keith Law: Probably AJ Reed. Don’t think it’s a big deal for them, not something that will require trading for help.

Joey: Only 14 SP’s pitched 200 innings last year, while 32 did it in 2013. The days of 200 innings are slowly going away as pitching becomes more “specialized”.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

JR: I know it’s just spring training, but the reports on Matt Harvey have been positive so far. While the glory days of ’13 and ’15 are not coming back, is there any hope he can slightly above league average (or a tad better) this year?
Keith Law: I think it’s about health more than anything else with him … I don’t think it’s mental, or makeup related. He was worked extremely hard at UNC, and the Mets had to use him more than I think they would have liked back in 2015. I believe this is the outcome of those two factors.

Dante: Put on your Matt Klentak hat for a moment. Do you make the dive into possible contention in 2018 and sign Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn, or use this season to see if the plethora of in-house options will pan out?
Keith Law: I’d sign Cobb, but wouldn’t give up the draft pick and bonus pool money attached to it for either of the other two.

Brady: Finished Hyperion last week and I can see your issue with the non-ending, but I think I was less critical of it knowing there was a direct sequel out there that probably continues on with the pilgrims’ story. You seem to have liked the first book as much as I did, and I can’t wait to start The Fall of Hyperion. Did you ever continue on with the series?
Keith Law: Not yet. Eventually. I have just 4 Hugo winners left, and two of them are probably dreadful, so now I’m branching out to read other stuff by authors I like.

B: Would you consider Mitch Keller a candidate to be called up after the super 2 deadline, or is he more of a September cup of coffee kind of guy?
Keith Law: I think September. Hasn’t pitched in AAA yet, needs work on the changeup.

and “Peggy”: I know your philosophy is take BPA, but IMO DET needs to take a position player 1.1. If that is an overdraft, couldn’t they then go over slot in round 2? Is that at all a valid strategy? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t like that – if the best player is clearly a pitcher, you take the pitcher. Taking someone you believe is definitively not the best player available is a good way to get fired three years later when the guy you passed on turns out to be … the best player who was available.

Jon: Could Kingery be a Zobrist Utility guy or is he pretty much just a 2B? Thanks.
Keith Law: Could be 2b/cf. Highly doubt he’s a shortstop even on a part-time basis.

Harold: We are going to see a 6 man rotation as well as a 4 man rotation with a bullpen game in the 5th slot. Which would you prefer if you were constructing a team?
Keith Law: Probably the latter, but I’m a fan of experimentation in general.

xxx(yyy): any recs for party games that are better than Cards Against Humanity and work in situations where people may be consuming adult beverages?
Keith Law: One Night Ultimate Werewolf and other games of that ilk (Werewords combines it with a word-guessing game; Crossfire switches up the role assignments but plays out very similarly) are perfect for that.

James: With how strong the rest of AL west, at what point should the Rangers just decide it’s time to rebuild?
Keith Law: What would rebuilding entail for them? I’m not sure how much they really have that they would be willing to trade; Hamels, probably, if he’s healthy, and Andrus if we assume he’s going to opt out, but that’s probably it. They have a decent young offensive core in the majors, including a few players who should still have some growth ahead of them. But I don’t see a teardown here, unless you’re arguing they should trade guys like Mazara or Gallo now to try to get even younger and acquire some pitching (which I wouldn’t recommend).

What’s in a name?: I’ve often seen ARod, Josh Hamilton, & Griffey Jr. mentioned as the three most-talented #1 picks ever. Do you agree, & who was the most-talented amateur pitcher you ever saw?
Keith Law: Those three were all before my tenure in baseball, so I’m just relying on others’ opinions; the same community tells me Brien Taylor was one of the most talented amateur pitchers ever. The best amateur pitchers I’ve personally seen are Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Brady Aiken.

Eric: Keith,

What kind of year can we expect from Andy Yerzy? Any worry of him being outshined by Daulton Varsho?
Keith Law: If Yerzy’s power surge was real, he’s a very valuable prospect because it looks like he’ll stay at catcher too. Not many true receivers with 20-HR potential out there. I don’t understand the second question … do players suffer for feeling “outshined?” I know Mark Arm isn’t a fan of that.

xxx(yyy): any faith in Rougie Odor turning things around and being closer to an average hitter in 2018-2019?
Keith Law: I’m quite bearish.

Zac: Who has the higher ceiling between Alex Faedo and Brady Singer
Keith Law: Faedo. I have a hard time seeing Singer as a 180 inning starter

Chris: What’s the best future alignment for Oakland’s infield? 2B Barreto, SS Mateo, UTIL Neuse work for you?
Keith Law: Neuse everyday 3b? I know they have Chapman, but I wouldn’t just stick Neuse in a part-time role when he might be capable of more.

Kenny: It seems like some teams may be kind of slightly be starting to put an emphasis on their hitters making more contact, even at the expense of a little power. Do you think the game has gotten a little too homer/strikeout heavy and that a team may be able to gain an advantage by putting the ball in play more than their opponents?
Keith Law: The payoff from adding power has exceeded the cost of reduced contact. Improved defensive positioning might be the main reason or at least a reason for the latter part of that. I don’t like the homer/strikeout heavy environment, but it is probably a rational strategy for most teams.

Ron: German ceiling?
Keith Law: Die Höchstgrenze.
Keith Law: (Seriously, I don’t know who you’re asking about.)

B: Would you consider Max Fried somewhat of a breakout guy this year? He was over his head in the majors, but I like his stuff.
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was over his head at all. He’s on the list today.

Levi: Tyler Glasnow with another erratic outing yesterday. I know it is just Spring training, but is there still any hope for him to be a reliable starter?
Keith Law: If you believe in the axiom about taller pitchers needing more time to get their coordination together for consistent deliveries, then yes, there is still hope. But the odds are declining.

Jackson: Fernando Tatis is looking good in all aspects of the game this spring. Is the best course of action to have he and Luis Urias play in AAA all year together and come up next year?
Keith Law: That’s the worst course of action because it moves someone off shortstop right now.

Paul: Can Joey Gallo become a .250+ hitter? Seems like everyone assumes that he’s a Mendoza-line guy, but he’s only 24, has gotten better each year, and doesn’t have a L/R split. I just keep thinking he’ll be a monster.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t rule that out at all. Gallo has made a ton of progress already at reducing his swings and misses in the zone and at laying off stuff out of the zone. When he was first drafted, the swing worked, but he’d swing too often and mistime a lot … but he’d get away with it because he’d hit a mistake into the next county. He’s actually cut down substantially since then.

Dan M. : You’ve said that Strahm should be in SD’s opening day rotation but do you think he will be?
Keith Law: It doesn’t seem like it right now, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got 15-18 starts this year. It’s not like he’s behind the Nats’ front four.

Jack: I’m a nerd so I looked back at MLB drafts from 20-30 years ago and it’s shocking how many 1st rounders never made it. What do you think has happened in scouting to lead to more draft success in the last 5-10 years.
Keith Law: We’ve gone from ignoring a lot of stats to at least some teams paying attention to publicly available stats to using proprietary data and internal R&D efforts to evaluate players. Bobby Witt was the 3rd pick in the 1985 draft despite walking 78 guys in 96 innings his junior year at Oklahoma. That would never happen today. (He was in the majors less than a year later and walked 143 guys in 157.2 innings his rookie year. What the hell did they expect?)

Dougie Fresh: What do you expect from Rhys Hopkins?
Keith Law: I expect him to have a great season, probably All-Star caliber, that feels like a disappointment after the two months he had to end 2017. I would bet on under 40 homers rather than over. Still think he’ll be a 4-5 WAR guy, just not MVP worthy.

BD in DC: Are Lamonte Wade, and Brandon Lowe MLB regulars?
Keith Law: Neither.

Joey Joe Joe: Were you surprised by Brian Goodwin putting up a > .800 OPS last season?
Keith Law: Nothing should really be a surprise in 278 PA.

Zachary: Twins starting shortstop in 2021 is Jorge Polanco? Nick Gordon? Royce Lewis? Wander Javier? Yunior Severino? Or someone else?
Keith Law: I believe if you asked them, they’d say Lewis. I still have real doubts about him staying on the dirt; he has a LONG way to go, based on what I saw (and area scouts also saw) last spring.

Trea: J.D. Davis have a future in Houston? If he got a chance to play elsewhere, how good of a bat could he be?
Keith Law: Fringe regular for someone. Maybe ideally a platoon guy.

What’s in a name?: Yes, it’s spring training, but Billy McKinney has 4 HR. Considering his late-season power surge in 2017, if this is truly another half-grade or so in the power department, does he go back to being a fairly good prospect?
Keith Law: It’s spring training. I don’t even look at those stats.

Dan: I know we should ignore Spring Training stats, but in his last start Vince Velasquez was throwing almost exclusively 4-seamers in what seemed like an effort to concentrate on locating the pitch. If he has success doing so the rest of the spring, is that the kind of thing he can build on in the season?
Keith Law: That’s different from spring training stats and definitely something i’d pay attention to … although in VV’s case, I have always been more concerned about the fringy breaking ball than fastball command. Yes, it’s something he can build on, and it makes him better, but it doesn’t address his main pitching flaw, or the fact that he has yet to stay healthy for a full season.

Nick: Going to PHX next weekend to watch some baseball. Staying in the Encanto village area. Any good restaurant recs?
Keith Law: Search this site for all my recs, but you’re right by Pizzeria Bianco, Matt’s Big Breakfast, Forno 301, Giant Coffee, Tacos Chiwas, and, when it opens, Roland’s Market.

What’s in a name?: I think Ron meant Domingo German.
Keith Law: Solid reliever IMO. Outside chance to start, well below 50%.

Mick: Is there a non traditional baseball country out there ready to bust out w/ at least a few prospects in the next few years?
Keith Law: I’d bet on Brazil churning a few more kids out now that Pardinho has gotten paid and Gohara is in the majors. I know Uganda has become a youth baseball success story lately, and I’ve heard they may even produce some good JC or small college prospects in the short term. I will forever wonder why the Philippines hasn’t produced players; I know they had a long fallow period where the sport withered there, but it has a history in that country going back to when we took it from Spain in 1898.

Brett: I’ve heard rumors that your lawyers offered Stormy Daniels 3-months of free Insider and a Cinnamon Roll Recipe in exchange for silence of your 2012 affair. Those rumors true?
Keith Law: I never signed anything and I don’t know what you’re talking about.

Matt: Why do professional athletes get injured so much? Isn’t staying in shape the general idea? It seems odd we hear about guys pulling a hamstring running to first base.
Keith Law: You can’t be serious. How often in your life do you have to run like athletes run, going from a dead stop to full speed as quickly as possible, or throw like they throw?
Keith Law: (if you throw like I throoooow, then you’re hurt like every day…)

Prospect Expansion Pack: Who would you prefer – Jesus Luzardo or Luis Medina? Debate with a friend about ceiling and age.
Keith Law: Luzardo would have been close to the top 100 had I continued ranking guys, and would have been over Medina.

addoeh: Can Ian Happ be passable in a corner outfield spot?
Keith Law: I’d bet on more than passable. Maybe a soft average.

Stomper: Most Oakland fans seem pretty convinced Chapman and Olson are going to be all-star caliber players going forward. I’d like them to be….but maybe pump the brakes on half-season debuts a bit, right?
Keith Law: I doubt either is an All-Star caliber player. Solid regulars, maybe, more so Chapman (70 glove, 80 arm) than Olson (not those things).

Dan M. : Assuming Bobby Bradley doesn’t struggle in Triple-A, would it be wiser for Cleveland to bring him up? Or do you think Alonso is competent enough?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t project Bradley to outproduce Alonso this year.

Brad: Hey Keith. What do you think is the ceiling for Dane Dunning? Solid #3 if everything goes right or a above average 4?
Keith Law: The difference between a solid 3 and an above average 4 is probably just in the nomenclature. I do think you have the right idea, though; he’s not an ace, not someone who’ll likely be a top 50 starter in baseball, but should be a very solid league-average guy for a while.

Seth Romero: Apparently all I did was a few curfew violations. In college it was the weed picture and a teammate fight. I’m not actually a *bad* guy am I? What else have you heard?
Keith Law: There’s more that isn’t public. Remember he was suspended by U of H, reinstated, and lasted just a few weeks before slugging a teammate, after which he was kicked off the team permanently.

Manny: Which potential 1st rounder in June do you see as having the highest floor and which do you see getting to the majors the quickest?
Keith Law: I’m just getting started seeing players but with what I’ve heard so far I think Rolison might be the high-floor college starter everyone loves, and either Swaggerty or Conine the high-floor college bat.

B: Were you a fan of Chris Taylor when he was in the Mariners system? I remember there being a lot of questions about him staying on the dirt, but he looks great in CF.
Keith Law: He was fine at shortstop, but had no real power at all, just a high-contact guy who looked like he could play a few positions. Thought he was a big leaguer but not a regular.

Brett: Do you think Buxton continues his progression in 2018 and has a better year than 2017?
Keith Law: Maybe a small improvement, but even a repeat of 2017 would be great, given where he seemed to be last April or in mid-2016.

Tom: Do the effects of a juiced ball work for the pitcher as well in terms of increased velocity?
Keith Law: If the issue is the COR, then that would only matter on contact, not just from the act of throwing the ball.

Steve: I’m a Boomer with “big ears” & Always listen to KLaw music playlists. Even the AAA format terrestrial radio in NYC, WFUV, doesn’t play these artists/ tracks. How do I too listen to this roster of artists?
Keith Law: If you’re asking where I find these artists, I don’t have an answer to that. I look in lots of places.

PJ: Blake Snell not eligible for today’s article, but can we expect him on your Breakout list? You still see a future #2?
Keith Law: Breakouts list is next week.

Jim: You tweeted wrong link to the chat I believe
Keith Law: Yeah, whatever. If you haven’t figured out where the chats are after two years on this site, I can’t help you, man.

Kay: Trying to make more use of my sous vide setup – I know you mentioned duck breasts. Any other favorites?
Keith Law: Chicken thighs. Pork chops. I hear it’s great for steak, and I would assume brisket and short rib too, although I don’t eat those things. I have tried it for sausages, but when I went to brown them they overcooked.

Matty: Any chance D Bundy hit’s his previous ace ceiling, or has he simply been worked too hard to get his stuff back?
Keith Law: Worked too hard, still has damage in the shoulder, and Buck is determined to squeeze every last drop of blood from him (and Hunter Harvey, 53 pitches in 2 innings the other day, WTF).

Jake: Should SF start the season with a Blanco/Jackson platoon, or should they put Duggar’s superior glove in CF and see on the fly how he will be able to handle MLB pitching?
Keith Law: I’d play Duggar. If he’s healthy, it’s probably time – he’s either ready now or he’s probably never going to be a regular.

mickey: hey, keith – always enjoy your work. just curious: do your employers mandate that you have to have a social media presence?
Keith Law: I don’t think they do. I was on Facebook and Twitter long before this became a conversation, though.

Nathan: Hey Keith, love your work. Why couldn’t the Pirates get Bueller signed out of high school? Demands to high? I remember him being pretty highly rated and it seems like he would’ve been someone they would have gone after.
Keith Law: They made a good run at him, but there are two things to bear in mind. One is that he was very slight back then, and everyone was concerned about his durability. The other is that he didn’t throw this hard until after TJ. Even as a sophomore on the Cape, he was 92-95. He wasn’t throwing that hard in HS. And if you can find anyone who projected him back at age 18 to be bumping 100 at age 23, I’d love to hear from him.

PJ: Are you bullish on Jorge Alfaro? I know he made your top 100, but just curious if you think there’s still the big bat potential that people saw a few years ago.
Keith Law: Huge power. If he ever gets to a .300 OBP, it’ll be a victory. But 20+ homers with that arm and even average receiving would make him a regular. I know the new staff in Philly has been happy with his progress receiving this spring.

Ted: Which of top ChiSox pitching prospects will be in 2020 rotation? Any likely to be #1 or #2 on that staff? Or is that more likely someone already up like Giolito or Lopez.
Keith Law: Kopech is the mostly likely #1 in that system.

Ed: Could Nolan Gorman end up the best player in this draft? I am hoping he falls to Padres at 7 but doubt he’ll make it there
Keith Law: He could, yes. List of guys who could be that is probably still 8-10 deep, though. I’ll see him next week, but Liberatore is on spring break and I won’t see him till later this month.

Joe: What were your impressions of Pentecost before the draft and do you think he can still catch?
Keith Law: Didn’t see power, questioned his durability (he didn’t catch every day in college), had some swing questions too. I’ve all but given up on him.

Mitch: I didn’t see Kingery on your MLB impact list. Do you think he won’t get a shot this year or something else?
Keith Law: They still have Cesar Hernandez.

Jason: Is Corey Ray gonna make it in the majors? Why has his stock sunk so much after one bad year?
Keith Law: Poor performance that may have been related to the lack of any kind of stride or trigger last year. He’s definitely gone backwards since he was drafted. Also had the meniscus tear that cost him his first offseason and some of spring training but I don’t know if that was really a factor.

Lawrence: I am all for equality in all walks of life. Is it sexist (as some students at Portland State would assert) to comment that men are genetically inclined to be taller and larger framed than women?
Keith Law: I don’t get the Portland State reference, but if you’re talking averages, then that’s just a fact. If this is about, say, whether a woman could play pro baseball, there are certainly women tall enough and strong enough to do so, if they were allowed to play it from a young enougha ge.

addoeh: How many people won’t read the editor’s note in your most recent article?
Keith Law: No one reads those notes. I didn’t even see it until you mentioned it. I had to cut that article short because we had no power in the house for three days and I was worried we’d lose it again yesterday (we didn’t, although we got 8″ of snow).

Larry: What kind of feedback have you received on Brice Turang? Is he swinging the bat better than he did in the fall?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that.

Brian: Does Arrieta to the Padres make sense? He’s gotta be dropping his asking price. 4/$80mil?
Keith Law: Hosmer to the Padres didn’t make sense. Signing a 32-year-old starter makes even less.

UK Nick: The Reds are kidding themselves with this Senzel at short business, right? I get that they can’t add another zero bat like Peraza if they play Hamilton in CF, but this is likely to do more ha harm than good to their best asset, right?
Keith Law: I don’t really get it; Suarez is a shortstop by trade. Move him there.

Dave: You still a Joe Rizzo guy, or no?
Keith Law: Was I ever?

JP: Are you posting standings/awards predictions before the season?
Keith Law: I do this every year.

Stan: Do you see Turang or de Sedas being the better pro SS?
Keith Law: I think de Sedas. Should see both this month.

JP: Have you ever filled out a March Madness bracket?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays I did, but I wouldn’t say I knew anything or put any thought into it. Going to a college that isn’t big in athletics (I missed our hockey championship by two years) really affects your interest level in such things, I think.

Tim: I’m sure I’ve read that you don’t play fantasy baseball is that a dislike of it or is it a free time issue?
Keith Law: I do not play it. Some is dislike, some is incompatibility with the job, and some is that I won’t spend free time on anything that is too close to ‘work’ for me. I have lots of great hobbies that have nothing to do with baseball. I intend to keep it that way, for my own sanity.

Bob: If you eat yogurt and granola for lunch, what do you eat for breakfast?
Keith Law: Cereal, usually. It’s one of the only packaged foods I eat.

Billy Bob: Is Judge gonna get screwed by FA? Unless my math is wrong, the Yankees control him til he’s 32. Let’s say he averages 40 HR’s til then. That means he’ll have 300ish HR’s. What team is gonna want to offer him a huge deal knowing he’s 6’7″ and likely to decline rather quickly once he’s past his prime?
Keith Law: Possibly, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yanks locked him up to a long-term deal that kept him there through his age-34 season or so. I think he’ll be a FA after his age-31 season, which is problematic but would likely still be early enough to get him something in the 3-4 year range … at least, before this year’s market crash.

Nats fan 2018: Do you think Victor Robles sees valuable playing time in the Nats OF this season? What do they do with Taylor then?
Keith Law: Robles is going to be better than Taylor, and maybe he already is. Plus you’re assuming Eaton is healthy – he hasn’t been in a game yet, I think.

Tom C: Would Arrieta to LAA make any sense? Um, maybe not 4 years though?
Keith Law: It would make some sense, although I would say the Angels signing any starter – Cobb comes to mind – would make sense.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … thank you all, as always, for showing up, for reading, for submitting questions, and for buying Smart Baseball, which comes out in paperback on Tuesday (March 13th). I do not know when the next chat will be, but I will be at Twitter HQ on Tuesday to do a live Q&A around the paperback’s release. Thanks again and happy baseball!

Blindness.

Sometimes I get hung up on a specific review, and end up going a few days between posts here because that one book or film is clogging the mental road and nothing else can come out until I figure out what I want to say. The most recent title to do this is Nobel Prize for Literature winner Jose Saramago’s book Blindness, a strange, hypnotic, disturbing-on-many-levels parable about an epidemic of “white blindness” that is unexplained and contagious, leading to the total breakdown of civilization in a matter of weeks.

Characters in Blindness don’t even get names, and throughout the book Saramago refers to them as the first blind man, the girl with dark glasses, the old man, and so on. The first man to go blind has it hit him while he’s driving in traffic, and he turns out to be Patient Zero, as the sight loss is highly contagious. The authorities move quickly to quarantine patients, and in their initial sweep they take in the wife of one of the first patients when she claims she’s gone blind as well – but she hasn’t, and lies just to be able to stay with her husband. The patients are thrown in a disused mental asylum (there’s some symbolism right there) and are told they’ll be shot if they try to leave. They’re given food, irregularly, and little else. The people in the asylum try to organize themselves, not realizing one of them can see, but the facilities are quickly overrun, and later waves of patients arrive, including a group that takes over the food supply, extorting first valuables and later women before they’ll release any food to the remainder of the prisoners. The one sighted woman eventually leads a rebellion, after which a few surviving patients leave the asylum to find the city in ruins, haunted by itinerant groups of blind people trying to find food and shelter any way they can. Through unfathomable hardships and privations, their little group – which includes a young boy who arrived at the hospital alone in the first wave, and a “dog of tears” who has followed them since their escape – becomes more than a means of survival, but a familial unit of people who continually sacrifice to help others, and who can thus persevere until the crisis ends.

Saramago was born in Portugal but lived the last portion of his life in exile in the Canary Islands, as his philosophies – he was a militant atheist, communist, anti-fascist, and humanist – ran afoul of the fascist Estado Novo regime in Portugal and later the country’s still-powerful Catholic Church, which objected strongly to his 1991 novel The Gospel According to Jesus Christ. Blindness was published in 1995, after he’d left Portugal, and became his best-known work, one of the novels cited in his Nobel commendation, emblematic of his fabulist style and with his trademark meandering prose that eschews standard sentence structure for something that mimics the nonlinear, stop-and-start path of human thought.

Saramago despised religion and thought that human love and compassion were the solutions to many ills of modern society; Blindness, at its most literal level, takes this to an ungodly extreme. He puts his characters into a post-apocalyptic situation where they’re not dying, but could die from starvation, poor sanitation, or the cruelty of others. Some of the secondary characters are merely truculent or selfish; others are more sanguinary or malevolent. They’re all recognizably human, however, even in their stripped-down state. The one woman who can see – “the doctor’s wife,” in Saramago’s prose – turns out to be, or simply remains, the most compassionate of everyone, even though her sight means she can see the worst that’s happening around her. With her as an anchor, though, her band of vagrants coalesces around each other beyond just the need for survival, with real affection growing among them, and their empathy returning even as they encounter other blind people struggling to stay alive outside the asylum.

The metaphor of blindness lends itself to too many interpretations for me to ever focus on a single one while reading it. The idea of us not ‘seeing’ what’s happening to or around us is the most obvious one that came to me. After finishing, I also latched on to the idea of the blindness contagion as the popular reaction to autocracy, especially fascism, where people choose not to see the suffering of others as long as they are unaffected themselves – the ‘first they came for the Jews, and I said nothing’ idea, written from the perspective of the first group to be rounded up, who then serve as witnesses and victims to atrocities that come afterwards. This interpretation, which I think is consistent with Saramago’s personal beliefs, recasts the story as a parable of the power of caring for others, and how that is what defines us as civilized beings, more than our ephemeral institutions or customs could.

The one truly unbearable part of Blindness isn’t the violence or the deprivations, but Saramago’s excessive and almost puerile attention to bodily excretions. There is so much discussion of shit in this book that just isn’t necessary – yes, I get it, the toilets are going to back up, especially once the municipal water system goes offline due to the plague – but Saramago can’t stop discussing it, and urine, and semen, and menstrual blood, to the point of … what, exactly? Reminding us that we are still biological creatures, and thus subject to the same demands and needs of the flesh that other mammals have? If he were trying to point out how our reliance on the people and technology behind our sanitation systems are the only thing keeping us First Worlders from dying of cholera, then I’d understand his point. Instead, we just get imagery that detracts from any larger points Saramago was trying to make.

Before you ask, no, I haven’t seen the 2008 film version, and don’t plan to, given how poor the reviews were and how graphic the content of the novel could be. At least the images in my own head aren’t as indelible as those I see on a screen.

Next up: Somehow I’m in the midst of three books – Sing, Unburied, Sing by Jesmyn Ward, Nudge by Richard Thaler (on the Kindle), and The Warmth of Other Suns by Isabel Wilkerson (audiobook). They are, in order, the reigning National Book Award for Fiction winner, the most popular book by the reigning Nobel Prize for Economics winner, and a Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction winner.

Oscars preview and picks, 2018 edition.

If you haven’t heard it yet, Chris Crawford and I recorded a podcast previewing tonight’s Academy Awards, but I also wanted to be able to put my predictions here for everyone to see, as well as links to all of the nominees I’ve reviewed so far. As always, bear in mind I am not a professional film critic in any way, and I have no inside knowledge at all of who or what is likely to win any of these awards. I just have opinions.

I’ll do a full ranking of all of the 2017 films I’ve seen once I get Loveless.

Best Picture

Who should win: Of the nine nominees, I would probably vote for The Shape of Water over Dunkirk but would be fine with either winning.

Who will win: I think The Shape of Water is going to edge out Three Billboards given the blowback against the latter’s mishandling of a police brutality subplot that’s treated as a joke. I still think there’s maybe a 5% chance Get Out shocks the world, though.

I haven’t seen: Got ‘em all this year.

Who was snubbed: The Florida Project was my #1 movie of 2017, with only a few films left for me to see to put a bow on last year. I don’t assign letter grades to movies a la Grierson & Leitch, but that would be my only A, I think.

Best Director

  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Who should win: Nolan.

Who will win: I said in the podcast with Chris that I could see Gerwig (first woman) winning, but I think I’d probably still bet on del Toro.

Who was snubbed: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, making a masterpiece with a cast of largely non-professional actors.

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Who should win: Day-Lewis gave the best performance. I think I’d prefer to see Kaluuya win, and it was a real breakout role for him, but DDL is just a master.

Who will win: Oldman, who should win for Best Impersonation, but that’s not really the same thing, is it?

I haven’t seen: Roman J. Israel, Esq..

Who was snubbed: John Cho for Columbus, a wonderful movie almost nobody has seen.

Best Actress

  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, I’d give it to Hawkins.

Who will win: Everyone seems to think McDormand has this locked up. She’s good, but I think her role was much less demanding than Hawkins’ or one of the actresses I think was snubbed.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya.

Who was snubbed: Daniela Vega for A Fantastic Woman, and perhaps Alexandra Barbely for On Body and Soul or Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. This was the strongest category of all this year.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Who should win: Dafoe.

Who will win: Rockwell.

I haven’t seen: All the Money in the World. This seems like an acknowledgement of the effort rather than the performance.

Who was snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg (who appeared in three Best Picture nominees this year) for Call Me By Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, Metcalf.

Who will win: Janney.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya or Mudbound.

Who was snubbed: Holly Hunter for The Big Sick.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    • Who should win: I’m torn on this one, but I think I’d vote Get Out here.

      Who will win: I have no idea. I’ll guess Lady Bird.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: The Florida Project and Columbus.

      Best Adapted Screenplay

      • Call Me By Your Name
      • The Disaster Artist
      • Logan
      • Molly’s Game
      • Mudbound

      Who will win: Call Me By Your Name.

      I haven’t seen: Call Me is the only one I’ve seen.

      Who was snubbed: The Sense of an Ending, another very good, quiet film that almost nobody saw last year. It’s adapted from the Booker Prize-winning novel by Julian Barnes.

      Best Animated Feature

      Who should win: Coco.

      Who will win: Coco.

      I haven’t seen: Ferdinand.

      Who was snubbed: This category has become a disaster thanks to the change in voting rules I mentioned yesterday, favoring big studio releases over indie films. But there were a ton of eligible films that were #BetterThanBossBaby, including The LEGO Batman Movie and The Girl Without Hands.

      Best Short Film – Animated

      • ”Dear Basketball”
      • ”Garden Party”
      • ”Lou”
      • ”Negative Space”
      • ”Revolting Rhymes

      Who should win: Three of these are great; I’d probably vote “Revolting Rhymes,” which is on Netflix. I reviewed them all in one post.

      Who will win: I assume “Lou” because it’s Pixar. It’s also great, as is “Negative Space.” I am really hoping “Dear Basketball,” easily the worst of the five, doesn’t win on the basis of Kobe Bryant’s involvement.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Best Documentary Feature

      Who should win: This really depends on what you want from your documentaries – should the film really expose or explain something, or can it just show you a slice of life? I liked four of the five nominees and would probably vote Faces Places by a nose over Icarus.

      Who will win: I think Faces Places so they can put Agnes Varda – or a cardboard cutout of her – on the stage.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: I did not see Jane, but given the wide critical acclaim of that film (about Jane Goodall), I was shocked it didn’t get a nod. I also thought City of Ghosts would get a nomination over Last Men in Aleppo.

      Best Short Film – Documentary

      • ”Ethel & Eddie”
      • ”Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
      • ”Heroin(e)”
      • ”Knife Skills”
      • ”Traffic Stop”

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, “Knife Skills” is a wonderful watch but “Traffic Stop” (on HBO) and “Heroin(e)” (on Netflix) are both so incredibly important.

      Who will win: I really don’t have a guess on this one.

      I haven’t seen: “Ethel & Eddie” and “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”. The latter is on YouTube but I couldn’t get through a few minutes of it because it was so upsetting right at the outset.

      Best Foreign Language Film

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, A Fantastic Woman, which also would have been worthy of a Best Picture nomination.

      Who will win: I think A Fantastic Woman gets this.

      I haven’t seen: I’m going to see Loveless this week, weather permitting, and it has earned critical plaudits on par with the best movies of the year. I also missed The Insult.

      Who was snubbed: I haven’t seen either of these, but thought In the Fade (which won the Golden Globe in this category) or Foxtrot (that trailer looks amazing) would sneak in here.

      Best Short Film – Live Action

      • ”DeKalb Elementary”
      • ”The Eleven O’Clock”
      • ”My Nephew Emmett”
      • ”The Silent Child”
      • ”Watu Wote/All Of Us”

      I’ve only seen “DeKalb Elementary,” which is superb, well-acted, and unfortunately very, very timely. I haven’t been able to find any of the other four online in any format.

Coco and this year’s animated shorts.

The 2017 slate of big studio animated movies was rather dismal, which I think is going to lead to an easy win for Coco, the best of the batch by any measure, especially since some of the best indie animated films didn’t even score nominations. Coco (available to rent/buy on amazon or iTunes) is genuinely very good, if not really at Peak Pixar levels; it’s better than the sequels Pixar has churned out recently, like Finding Dory and Monsters U., just not at the standard set by films like Up or WALL-E or the Toy Story trilogy.

(I suppose this disclaimer is barely necessary at this point, but just in case: I work for ESPN, which is owned by Disney, which owns Pixar, which made Coco.)

The protagonist of Coco is not actually Coco, but Miguel, a young Mexican boy who wants nothing more in life than to be a musician, but whose great-great-grandfather left his wife and very young daughter, Coco, to pursue his dreams in music. That has made the family extremely bitter towards music, to the point where Miguel has to hide his records and his homemade guitar from his parents and relatives, especially his grandmother, who is basically Nurse Ratchet in abuelita form.

Of course, he gets caught, runs away, and ends up crossing over the bridge to the netherworld where the mostly-dead spirits of the recently deceased reside in relative luxury … as long as someone alive still remembers them. On the Day of the Dead, the spirits can come back to visit their relatives as long as someone has put up their pictures on their ofrendas. Miguel can get back to the land of the living, but wants to do it in a way that doesn’t require him to surrender his dreams of becoming a musician, which leads him to chase down the man he thinks is his deceased great-great-grandfather, the underworld-famous musician Ernesto de la Cruz. (Spoiler alert: It’s not him, and God help you if you didn’t see that one coming.) So Miguel has to learn some important lessons about family, sing a song or two, and eventually get back to the living while also restoring a lost link to his family’s past.

Coco looks great, as all Pixar movies do, although I think since Brave they’ve kind of run up against a barrier of animation quality – Pixar films have blown me away visually so many times in the past that there isn’t much left for them to impress me with. This film is colorful and bright and very appealing, especially the spirit animals of the netherworld, but it’s also what we’ve come to expect from this studio. The story itself is just so-so, although there are plenty of sight gags and a bunch of references that will sail over younger readers’ heads but entertain the parents. (Bonus points for getting my daughter to ask me who Frida Kahlo was.) The setup never really worked for me – the loving parents who are so hellbent on denying Miguel any kind of music, not just saying he can’t pursue it as a career, but proscribing it as even a hobby. His grandmother destroys his handmade guitar, which just does not gibe at all with the rest of her character; no matter how mad you get, you don’t obliterate something your child made.

The best Pixar movies all have intricate plots that drop threads early in the film only to tie them all back together near the end. There are no throwaways in movies like The Incredibles or Toy Story – every detail ends up mattering in a big way. Not only is it satisfying in the moment to see a script recall something from an hour earlier, but it adds to the feeling that these are deep, three-dimensional films to be considered on par with live-action movies. If anything, most live action films would be lucky to bring scripts of the density and sophistication of great Pixar films. Coco isn’t one of these; there’s a single plot strand, established early and handled linearly, without much more. Even the complex structure of the netherworld where the skeleton-souls reside felt too familiar, with shots of the great hall and the stadium both recalling similar settings from Harry Potter films.

In a better year, with a better slate of nominees, I don’t think Coco would be deserving of the Best Animated Feature Oscar it’s going to win. It’s the best of the five nominees, and it’s hard for any other studio to match the sheer quality of the CG animation that comes from Pixar. If you go against them on animation, it has to be to choose something novel like the hand-painted cels of Loving Vincent or the visual style of The Breadwinner. (Let’s not even talk about The Boss Baby.) Tim Grierson and Will Leitch put this at #14 on their ranking of all 19 Pixar feature films, which amounts to dropping it behind all the good ones and ahead of all the mediocre-or-less ones. I can’t disagree.

* I’ve seen all five Best Animated Short Film nominees just in the last 72 hours, as they were all available somewhere for free: “Garden Party,” “Lou,” and “Negative Space” were all on YouTube, although at the moment two are gone; “Dear Basketball” is on Go90; and “Revolting Rhymes” is on Netflix. Of those, ”Revolting Rhymes” would be my pick, as it’s inventive, looks fantastic, and manages to develop some characters … but it’s also two episodes of about 28 minutes each, which exceeds the category’s length threshold, so I don’t know if voters have to consider just one of the two parts. It’s based on a Roald Dahl book of rhymes where he reworks some classic fairy tales to add some macabre twists and change the endings, all told here by a Big Bad Wolf (voiced by Dominic West). My daughter and I enjoyed it quite a bit, although I think she’d vote for “Lou” instead. That Pixar short brings the items in a school playground lost & found to life to teach the class bully a lesson. It’s cute and sweet and probably gets the nod on animation quality.

“Negative Space” is a stop-motion piece from Germany about a young man who is remembering how his father taught him his rather scientific method of packing a suitcase to maximize use of the space therein. It’s just five minutes, and there’s a twist that I think you’ll probably see coming. “Garden Party” also has a twist, and the animation of various tropical frogs taking over an apparently abandoned mansion is cool … but there isn’t really a story here.

And then there’s “Dear Basketball,” which I’m worried will win because it involves Kobe Bryant, even though it is clearly the worst of the five. Bryant penned a letter essentially thanking basketball for the huge, positive influence it has had on his life, which is fine, but not munch of a story. The animation looks like charcoal drawings, which is appealing, but ultimately there is just no there here. If it’s not pointless, the point isn’t very sharp. And that’s without considering the fact that Bryant was accused of rape and chose to pay his accuser to make the charges go away – not someone the Academy should want on its stage anyway, not this year of all years. If this were a truly great short film, maybe there’d be an argument for honoring it anyway, but it’s just not.

Stick to baseball, 3/3/18.

I’ve had one Insider post in the last week, this one on the MLB Draft, looking at Florida starters Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, as well as several other prospects from the Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Chris Crawford and I did an impromptu podcast previewing Sunday night’s Oscars, looking at about a dozen categories with our picks of who should win and our very-much-outsider guesses on who will win. It looks like a few hundred of you have already indulged us by listening and we both appreciate it.

Smart Baseball drops in paperback in just ten days! Buy copies or see more details on HarperCollins’ site.

And now, the links…

Faces Places.

Faces Places (original title Visages, Villages) is the last of the five nominees for Best Documentary Feature I had to see – I’ve also caught two of the Documentary Short nominees – and I could see an argument that it’s the best. It’s certainly unique among the nominees in that it’s not really about anything at all; the other four all tell stories, often with an eye on exposing or explaining something, but Faces Places is a slice of life in the truest sense of the phrase. It seems like the sort of thing you could never sell until you’d made it and could show a distributor what the finished product is, because the magic here is in the way the two leads interact on screen throughout the movie. You can buy it on Amazon or iTunes.

Agnes Varda is an 89-year-old grande dame of French cinema, a major figure in the New Wave of the 1950s, a friend of Godard, married to Jacques Demy for over 30 years. She and a photographer-artist named JR are the stars of the film, driving around villages in France, visiting friends or acquaintances, taking photos and blowing them up to paste on the sides of buildings, water towers, and train cars. Their interactions with each other – it’s such an unlikely friendship, but the affection is so obviously genuine that it’s truly moving – and with the various locals are the heart of the film. Some of the best moments are the reactions of the people whose photographs JR and Varda take and blow up, how they respond to seeing themselves portrayed in these giant posters. One becomes a mini-celebrity and finds she doesn’t like how people recognize her now as the woman on the side of the building. The wives of three workers at a port end up with their portraits on giant stacks of shipping containers (Frank Sobotka declined comment) and then sit inside their own images in the film’s most memorable shot. One describes feeling large and powerful; another hates feeling enclosed and so far off the ground. It’s peculiar to see how making someone two-dimensional brings out something different in their humanity, but that seems to be the trick of Varda & JR’s technique.

Varda is really the star of the film, though, and that was evident to me even though I was totally unfamiliar with her work or reputation before seeing this. Part of the connection probably came from how she reminded me of my maternal grandmother, who, like Varda, was short (I doubt my grandmother ever saw five feet, and was probably closer to 4’8” when she died at 100), had a raspy voice (she smoked for 75+ years), and kept her hair very short. Seeing Varda lean into JR – who seems pretty tall, although standing next to her makes him look like a giant – reminded me so much of how my grandmother would do the same with me once I was an adult, especially comforting her during moments of melancholy near the end of her life, that I felt an immediate empathy with the director from the movie’s start. When she does have a real moment of deep sadness near the end, the one thing that really happens in the movie, it got to me even though her grief in that scene was intensely personal to her.

Varda became the oldest person to receive an Oscar nomination in any non-honorary category with this year’s nod, and between that and her importance in the industry, Faces Places might be the sentimental favorite, if not the overall favorite, to win for Best Documentary Feature. (The nomination also led to an amusing scene when Varda declined to fly from France to Los Angeles for the nominees’ luncheon, so JR brought a few cardboard cutouts of Varda in her stead, and 2D Varda was a big hit.) Last Men in Aleppo is probably the best of the five for the importance of its subject matter, although I was surprised at how distant I felt from the tragedies on screen in that film. Icarus was the most gripping to watch, because it’s so incredibly bizarre how that filmmaker stumbled on the biggest doping scandal in sports history while trying to make a documentary about something else. If I had a ballot, which I don’t because the Academy just won’t return my calls, I’d probably vote for Icarus, but inside I’d hope Faces Places won anyway … even if cardboard Agnes is the one accepting the award.

* Four of the five nominees for Best Documentary Short are available to stream right now, and I’ve seen two, with a third downloaded to watch today or tomorrow. Knife Skills tells the story of Edwin’s, a Cleveland restaurant that hires people who’ve just been released from prison, training them over a period of several months, while serving classical French cuisine and earning rave reviews. The documentary follows the restaurant’s inaugural class of 120, which ends up whittled by more than half before the restaurant has been open three months, focusing on a few individual student-employees, mostly imprisoned for drug-related offenses, who will surprise you with how quickly they seem to take to and enjoy this grueling work. It’s also on iTunes and amazon.

Traffic Stop is on HBO’s streaming apps, and holy shit, is this a bad look for the Austin Police Department. A white cop pulls a black woman out of her car for speeding, throws her to the ground, beats her, threatens to tase her, and then tells the next officer to arrive that she resisted arrest … but it was all caught on his dash cam. Not only was he not fired for the incident, his superiors didn’t hear about it for over a year, by which point it was too late for them to suspend or fire him; he was just terminated a month ago for standing on a suspect’s head during another arrest. The documentary intersperses all of the dash cam footage with shots of the victim, Breaion King, talking about what it did to her life, and just about herself – she’s a math teacher who has worked in the community and has no criminal history whatsoever, but was targeted because she was black. The big reveal, though, is when a different cop, one who seems to be sympathetic to her, says that the problem is that black people have “violent tendencies” that lead white cops to assume the worst. I see no evidence anywhere that that officer has been disciplined in any way, and can only assume that he’s still out there, representing Austin’s finest.

Miami eats, 2018 edition.

I hadn’t spent any time in Miami since I went to the U to see Yasmani Grandal and Matt Harvey face each other back in 2010 – Grandal took him deep – but have now been there twice inside of nine months, for last year’s Futures Game and now to see the University of Florida’s two first-round pitchers pitch against the Canes.

The big novelty of the trip was the brand new St. Roch Food Market in the Design District just north of downtown, not far from Wynwood. This is the second St. Roch, with the original in New Orleans, and I believe this location has different vendors with the same concept – a 10,000 square foot open area with about a dozen different stalls along the walls, selling all kinds of food, including a salad stand, a noodle bar, a pasta/Italian stand, a Japanese stand with cooked and raw fish preparations, a coffee/tea bar, and a vegan bakery. You pay at each stand as you order, and at least in my case someone brought the food to my table since I was sitting nearby. I ate at the Japanese stand first, getting a seaweed salad and a grilled freshwater eel dish over rice with radishes and allegedly cucumbers (which were nowhere to be found). The vegan bakery is better than you’d expect, or than I expected, with an excellent shortbread-only version of a Linzer tarte called a ‘compassion cookie’ because they intend to donate a portion of the proceeds from its sale to animal shelters. The coffee stand uses Counter Culture beans and a high-end tea purveyor I hadn’t heard of. The whole concept is fantastic – it’s fresh food, mostly made to order, with great inputs – but on day one their execution was spotty. Another stand didn’t have one of its main proteins ready, and didn’t tell me until I’d paid and the order had gone to the cook. I’m hoping that was just Opening Day jitters.

I ate two meals down in Coral Gables, both above average. The Local is on the Miracle Mile pedestrian-only street, serving southern-inspired dishes, a lot of them takes on bar food, with an extensive cocktail list as well. Their cornmeal-crusted catfish was outstanding, perfectly crispy on the outside and hot enough that it had to have come right from the fryer; it’s served on a mild remoulade with hand-cut fries on the side that had probably been sitting a little while before I was served. They have about a half-dozen craft cocktails of impressive complexity as well.

Shelley’s is a very unassuming seafood bar very close to the Canes’ stadium, with maybe 2/3 of the menu items including fish or shellfish. I went with the server’s suggestions for both starter and main; the mofongo fritters were lighter than I expected, served with both a sugar cane compound butter and a clear garlic-chili sauce, while the rum-glazed scallops were perfectly cooked as well, but I thought the whole combination of scallops with house-cured ham and candied pecans overpowered the delicate flavor of the scallops themselves.

I mentioned Panther Coffee in my wrap-up last July, and went there twice on this trip, also grabbing a bag of beans from Finca La Illusion, a Nicaraguan farm, to bring home. I don’t know how long they’ll have it but it’s excellent, big bodied with some warm berry notes and a mild cocoa note too.

Music update, February 2018.

Lot of bigger names out this month with new music, some of which didn’t make the list here – I haven’t included either of the new CHVRCHES singles, because I think they’re the worst things the group has ever done; and I didn’t include the Weeknd & Kendrick Lamar’s “Pray for Me,” because it’s already in the top ten and I think it’s going to be among the biggest hits of the year. If you don’t see the widget below you can access the Spotify playlist here.

Janelle Monáe – Make Me Feel. It’s good to have The Fabulous Miss M. back on the music side of her multi-talented self, with this the stronger of the two singles she released this month to tease her upcoming album. There’s a lot of Nile Rodgers in here, and more than a little Prince, but also some unique twists like the chromatic descent in the bridge’s vocals (“with a little bit of tender”).

Sunflower Bean – Twentytwo. Twentytwo in Blue, the second LP from this New York indie-pop trio, is due out March 23rd. Their off-kilter approach masks melodies that seem to reflect every era of pop music back to the 1950s.

Frank Turner – 1933. I’m breaking one of my own rules against including two songs by one artist on the same playlist, but Turner put out two singles from his forthcoming album, both very different, and released them about a month apart anyway. This is more in line with Turner’s folk-punk output like much of Tape Deck Heart, with an ardently political, anti-fascist message (“don’t go mistaking your house burning down for the dawn”).

Speedy Ortiz – Lucky 88. I wasn’t sure if Sadie Dupuis’ solo effort (as Sad13) meant the end of Speedy Ortiz, but I’m thrilled the post-punk outfit is back for a third album, Twerp Verse, due out April 27th.

whenyoung – Pretty Pure. This Irish/British trio is poised to be a Next Big Indie Thing, because their music is good and they’re getting some more press attention too.

Cloves – Bringing The House Down. I believe this is the first new song from Cloves since last May’s “California Numb,” and I’m hopeful this means we’ll finally get a full-length album from the 22-year-old Australian singer with the haunting, beautiful voice behind 2015’s “Frail Love.” If you like Fiona Apple, Cloves should be your new crush. (And she’s mentioned loving Apple’s work, too.)

Kate Nash – Drink About You. Nash seems to have settled into a sort of mode of mock-serious pop songwriting – when she’s not acting as Rhonda Richardson/Britannica on the Netflix series GLOW — and is about to release her first album in five years, the crowdfunded Yesterday was Forever, due out March 30th.

Unknown Mortal Orchestra – American Guilt. Absolutely love the guitar riff that opens this song, which teases their album Sex and Food, due out April 6th.

Strange Names – UFO. The opening to this track reminds me of something specific from the 1980s that I can’t put my finger on – New Wave? Early hip-hop? – as if it were filtered through Tour de France-era Kraftwerk.

Django Django – Marble Skies. The title track and opener of Django Django’s latest album is one of the fastest-paced songs on the record, similar to “Tic Tac Toe,” and like the Strange Names song before this also recalls a lot of early 1980s New Wave.

Kid Astray – Joanne. This Norwegian sextet should be much more popular than they are – they’ve churned out a bunch of great singles with catchy, memorable hooks and sharp lyrics going back to 2013’s “The Mess” and 2015’s “Diver.” I assume this is a lead-in to a second album; their last LP was 2015’s Home Before the Dark, which included the two songs I just mentioned as well as “Cornerstone.”

Kero Kero Bonito – You Know How It Is. This garage-rock song is thoroughly out of character for the dance-pop trio, but I kind of love its Britpoppy vibe, which reminded me of Echobelly’s “Great Things.”

Twin Shadow – Saturdays (feat. HAIM). I’m not a HAIM fan at all, and have never been much for Twin Shadow’s solo work, but damn, this is a great pop song.

Belly – Shiny One. The first song in 23 years from Tanya Donnelly and company feels very close to the sound of their last album, 1995’s King, which had two modest hits in “Superconnected” and “Now They’ll Sleep.”

I’m With Her – I-89. A folk/Americana trio featuring Nickel Creek’s Sara Watkins, Crooked Still’s Aoife O’Donovan, and solo artist Sara Jarosz, their name seems to predate its usage as Hillary Clinton’s campaign slogan. The group has been releasing singles since 2015, but their first full-length album, See You Around, just came out on February 16th.

Frank Turner – Be More Kind. And here’s the second Turner song of the month, a gentle, acoustic folk track that speaks its mind in disarming fashion.

Courtney Barnett – Nameless, Faceless. Barnett’s kind of an automatic inclusion on my playlists – unless she’s working with Kurt Vile – and this seems like a return to form for her after that awful collaboration last year.

The Voodoo Children – Tangerines & Daffodils. I’d never heard of this duo, which apparently includes JT Daly (Paper Route), but this song brought me right back to the Von Bondies’ 2004 hit “C’mon C’mon.”

The Kenneths – Favourite Ex. Not quite as great as their 2015 single “Cool As You,” but the best song this punk-pop trio has put out since then. I do kind of wish they’d spent a bit more time on the lyrics, though.

Black Map – Let Me Out. Wikipedia calls these guys post-hardcore, but this is very much what mainstream metal sounded like in my formative years as a fan of the genre in the late 1980s, when thrash was king, before death metal forged a schism that sent many bands racing towards extremes like blast beats or trending backwards towards a more commercial sound.

Blitzkrieg – Forever Is a Long Time. Lyrics have never been a strength of Blitzkrieg leader Brian Ross, but I’ll at least give the aging rockers – whose song “Blitzkrieg” is a classic of the New Wave of British Heavy Metal and was famously covered by Metallica as a B-side on the “Creeping Death” single – credit for still being able to churn out a credible metal tune.

Klawchat 3/1/18.

Chris Crawford and I recorded a one-off show discussing this year’s Academy Awards, going through a dozen or so categories with who we think should win and who we think will win. Check it out if you’re at all movie-inclined.

Keith Law: Now I’ve lost the plot … Klawchat.

Pj: Syndergaard really has no comparables. In your opinion, what are the odds that he can stay healthy with his current arsenal (93 mph slider!) for 200 ip?
Keith Law: Lack of comparables is the real issue. He hasn’t had a serious arm injury so far, and he actually doesn’t seem to throw with that much effort given his velocity. 200 IP may not be the right milestone given usage patterns, but he’s gone 179.2 and 183 already; I see no reason he can’t do that regularly.

Frank: Who do you think wins the 4th outfield job in STL? Oneill, Bader, Garcia, or free agent yet to be signed?
Keith Law: Bader, I’d guess. Not sure signing an OF makes any sense at all for them.

Todd Boss: Fun question: I don’t believe we’ve yet had a player from the 2016 draft debut in the majors. Who is your pick for the first one to debut at this point?
Keith Law: Austin Hays debuted last year. I think he was the first … but of guys who haven’t debuted so far, I’d guess Puk or Senzel for the next one.

Damian: Hi Keith. Realistically eta for an everyday middle infield of Tatis Jr and Urias? Also, over/under average 3 WAR for Hosmer in his first 5 years?
Keith Law: Under for Hosmer. Tatis may still move off SS; I’ve called that an even money proposition, which I think is more optimistic than the industry consensus (which is that he’s going to get so big he’ll move to 3b or RF). I think Urias debuts this August or so. Tatis more likely 2019.

Perplexed: Need your help…I love reading a writer’s baseball analysis, but every chat he gets off topic and his heart bleeds all over my screen and I end up having to replace it. Your advice?
Keith Law: Seems like this is your own fault. You should make better decisions.

Florida Project for Best Pic: How do we get the Braves to flip-flop Albies and Gohara’s diets?
Keith Law: Ironically, they’re both pretty big drinkers. That would be my bigger concern.

Dan: Your fellow coffee connoisseur and baseball junkie, Andy Baggarly, wrote a great article on Chris Stratton’s curveball and the amazing spin rate he generates on it. Not sure if it really means it’s a great pitch or not, but regardless, do you see Chris Stratton pitching like a solid 4/5? Is there enough stuff, control, command in that arm?
Keith Law: I’ll check that piece out. He had a tremendous slider in college at Miss St, but his arm speed dropped off after he signed and hasn’t really come back. A 5, sure, a 4, maaaaaybe.

Jake Burger: Does this adversely affect my ability to stick at third?
Keith Law: TBD. Either you’ll have no loss in mobility at all, in which case you’re still a work in progress, or you’ll lose some mobility and then you’ll have to go to first. I don’t think there’s an in between here. But we won’t know anything till you’re back. (Get well soon.)

Jay: Over/under 10 pitchers on your top 100 list to succumb to TJ this year? One and counting.
Keith Law: Under. I’ll go with 7.5 as my o/u line.

Jay: Thoughts on the whole Acuna wearing his cap sideways thing?
Keith Law: MLB needs to stop asking Latin players to act less Latin. This is fucking stupid – show up on time, play hard, I don’t care if you wear your pants backwards like Kris Kross.

The Sloth: Upside for Alex Speas if he can ever locate?
Keith Law: It’s #1 stuff and athleticism but I don’t think there’s even a 5% chance of this.

Perry O. Dontist: You’ve traditionally given little value to relievers as prospects. I understand your thinking on that point, but as the relief role seems to be evolving, if a club tried to develop an ‘Andrew Miller type’ reliever (and he had success) would you think more highly of him as a prospect than you ordinarily would any minor league reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, if said pitcher showed he could handle the greater workload in fewer games (50 G 100 IP, not 65 G 70 IP).

G Dubya: What are your thoughts on the Twins signing Logan Morrison instead of another starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Solid value for them, gives them OBP they could use. Not sure it’s “instead” given the cost.

Dunkin’ Donuts: What is the chance Braves OF prospect Drew Waters becomes a star player?
Keith Law: Very low.

Perry O. Dontist: Thoughts on Mike Jeffcoat’s email?
Keith Law: For readers who missed it, the Texas Wesleyan coach emailed a potential recruit from Colorado and said he doesn’t take HS players from that state because too many of them test positive for weed – pro tip, stop testing for weed, it’s irrelevant to baseball and mostly harmless – and then made a crack about blaming “liberal” politicians. (Drug decriminalization isn’t liberal so much as libertarian; it has the conservative angle of decreasing government resources spent chasing, prosecuting, and imprisoning weed offenders, while also generating revenues from a new sin tax.) The school has already said it was inappropriate and they seem to be taking corrective actions. That said, if any coach is dumb enough to say he’s ignoring an entire state – not Alaska – then it’ll show in the standings, won’t it?

dave: I asked about this last week. What’s the opposition to requiring a pitcher to face two batters to improve pace of play?
Keith Law: Basically kills off specialist relievers. And with most players showing modest platoon splits, you might end up with so many unfavorable matchups for the team in the field that the gains are cancelled out by more men on base. (That’s speculation.) I’d prefer cutting time between pitching changes myself.

Lyle: Given how empty the cupboard is, if the Mariners don’t manage to pull off a playoff berth this year as the Cano-Cruz-Felix era winds down, how long will it realistically be before they can come up with a playoff berth in the future? 5 years? 7? 10? 50?
Keith Law: I think Houston has shown what you can do in 5 years if you tear it all down to the studs.

CB: What person who should already have been shown the door will cost the Angels more wins this year: Mike Scioscia or Albert Pujols?
Keith Law: Pujols.

Andy: How much of a mental Rolodex do you have of players? If I ask something about Ben Rortvedt or Austin Gomber (to pick two random nowhere near top 100 guys) do you know exactly about them, or do you have to go to a spreadsheet to find your notes on them?
Keith Law: I know those guys offhand, but I don’t know every player you might throw at me; I could probably answer you on a few hundred guys in the minors, then right now maybe 40-50 guys in this year’s draft class. I don’t use a spreadsheet, though. Too hard to read quickly.

Andy: When you read to your daughter with voices do you just resort to the accents/characterizations from the movie? I have a hard time remembering the voice for a character if it’s different than the movie accent.
Keith Law: Yep. My Snape wasn’t very good but I was very proud of my Dumbledore and my Dobby.

Archie: What do you think of Mike Krukow’s idea to shorten between inning breaks and recoup the advertising money lost by putting small ad patches on the player uniforms?
Keith Law: I’m really OK with that. I’m fine with ads on the screen between pitches or at bats too. I would think advertisers would prefer that because viewers aren’t walking away or distracted.

Erwin: What do you think of Nander de Sedas? Top 10 pick, stay at short?
Keith Law: Maybe top 10 pick, definitely first round, stays at short.

Ramon Neopolitano III: Hey Keith- lately, I’ve seen tons of media and fans act as if Manny Machado to the Yankees is a done deal already. While I do think they’re probably the favorites to sign him, why do we have articles (USA Today) implying it’s a foregone conclusion? Aren’t the White Sox and Phillies expected to go hard after him, too?
Keith Law: You can pretty well ignore anything that calls a free agent signing with a certain team a foregone conclusion eight months before they can even file. That’s clickbait.

KOK: Have you cooked anything interesting Sous Vide recently?
Keith Law: Have made duck a few times that way – so much easier to get a duck breast perfectly medium-rare sous vide.

Karl: Is there any sort of service you’re aware of that allows someone to test/rent board games without buying? I’m intrigued by some that you talk about but am wary of putting down a lot of money for them without knowing if I’d like them.
Keith Law: A lot of cities have board game cafes where you can go play stuff for a small fee or for the cost of food & drink. Also, conventions like Gen Con or PAX Unplugged charge admission but then there’s lots of open gaming.

Kevin: Any more insight on what substance Whitley was using? How much effect would this suspension have on his Top 100 ranking if you were to rank again?
Keith Law: Zero effect.

JJ: I know you’re not really a football guy, but I thought you’d enjoy this quote from new Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden, on using the team’s analytics department: “I’m trying to throw the game back to 1998. I’m not going to rely on modern technology. I will certainly have some people that are professional that can help me from that regard. But I still think doing things the old fashioned way is a good way.”
Keith Law: Good for him. I never liked the Raiders anyway.

Josh: Just spent a week in Scottsdale and your food guide was indispensable. How much does Whitley’s suspension hurt his development?
Keith Law: I don’t think it hurts much at all, because he wasn’t going to throw 160 innings or pitch six full months anyway. Maybe he loses four or five starts he would have otherwise made.

Grant: Alice in Chains or Pearl Jam?
Keith Law: Peak AiC. But the current incarnation is not good.

Nolan W: How much do you buy into framing metrics in their current form, specifically how the data is being translated to runs/WAR? In my judgment, the raw data captured by these metrics is generally in very close alignment with what the eye test tells us in terms of identifying good receivers vs bad ones. At the same time, it’s a little jarring to see Baseball Prospectus slap a 6 WAR on Tyler Flowers largely on the strength of superb framing stats.
Keith Law: Teams seem to think this is at least directionally correct. I do wonder if a player whose framing was worth, say, 3 WAR in one year is also likely to come back down towards the average pretty hard the next year. We don’t have a ton of framing data but there seems to be a lot of year to year volatility in it, implying that while it is a skill, there’s also some randomness involved too.

Derek: The two most coveted position players in baseball are a SS that can hit and a C that can hit (we seem to have a number of the former these days but not as many of the latter). What was the scouting report on Bryce Harper as an amateur C? Could he have been a 40 defender there? Assuming his bat would have developed the same way (maybe an implausible assumption), that’s probably more valuable than what he is in RF. Did the Nats make a mistake moving him off C?
Keith Law: Could have been a 50-60 defender back there. At least a 70 arm in practice, 80 arm strength. Hell of an athlete, of course. Liked doing it too. But you’d lose 30 games a year guaranteed, and if he’s had injury trouble in the outfield, it probably would have been worse at C.

Greg: What’s your take on the slow free agent market? Just a function of circumstances or are the owners up to no good? I admit to being a bit suspicious but I obviously have nothing concrete with which to back that up.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s collusion. I think it was a weak market, overstuffed with players without homes – 1b/dh/lf types, mostly LHB – combined with a general philosophy against long-term contracts for hitters in their 30s or pitchers at all.

The Sloth: How big of an upside does Basabe (Luis Alexander of Chicago) possess? Is 20/20 a possible best case scenario?
Keith Law: Sure. I think he could be an above average regular if healthy.

Keith Kristol: You’ll be on the frontlines for the inevitable U.S. intervention in Syria, right? You definitely should be considering you’ve been peddling disgusting regime change propoganda. Remember the gas attack the “moderate” rebels were responsible for in 2013? Maybe you should consider that when these obviously false reports about Assad “gassing his own people” come out. Or you could actually find news sources outside of Netflix documentaries, Teen Vogue, and WaPo. Seriously, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Keith Law: You seem unwell. Or unhinged. By the way, from Amnesty International, on Syria buying materials to manufacture chemical weapons from North Korea: “But to help the Syrian government – which has repeatedly used chemical weapons against civilians – replenish its supplies would be a particularly egregious betrayal of humanity.” Or look at the state’s sieges of its own cities/regions like Ghouta, Raqqa, Aleppo. Hundreds of dissidents forcibly ‘disappeared.’ Assad’s longtime support of Hezbollah and other terrorist movements. I’m not sure who you think you’re defending here … or what you think I’ve even supported, other than writing about the two excellent documentaries on the crisis, Last Men in Aleppo (Oscar nominated) and City of Ghosts.

Bret: There’s been a lot of talk in Toronto about the Blue Jays using Danny Jansen as the backup to Russell Martin for much of this season — maybe not out of the gate, but perhaps from the middle of the season onwards. What kind of impact would that have on Jansen’s development?
Keith Law: Might help him if he gets to work more with the major league coaching and pitching staff. I think he can hit, and he’s not that young. But he needs a lot of work on receiving & working with pitchers.

JR: The best news in spring training is no news right? You don’t want to see your favorite team/players in any reports – just routine, injury free spring training.
Keith Law: Yep. I ignore most ST news, but injuries are tangible and at this time of year often really bad.

Jake: New college baseball fan here. Going to the University of MN baseball tournament this weekend. AZ, WA, and UCLA are the other teams participating. Any players from those teams worth paying close attention to?
Keith Law: Joe Demers at UW is a prospect. Arizona and UCLA are as bad as I can remember them being. And ASU is worse. (You didn’t ask, I just had to point that out.)
Keith Law: The best college baseball prospect in the state of Arizona isn’t at Arizona or ASU (Wong at Grand Canyon). How wrong does that sound?

BJinIndiana: First–finally bought Smart Baseball and loved it. I dislike dust jackets though, so I was very pleasantly surprised to see the green/brown colors underneath.
Keith Law: I wish I could take credit. Glad you liked it, though!

Tommy: Between Garver and Haase, who has more ability to stick and hit with some pop?
Keith Law: Haase I think has more everyday potential than Garver. Both big league backups at least.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think there’s any way that Kelenic moves up enough for the Tigers to consider him 1-1?
Keith Law: I’d be truly shocked.

Sadie: Dbacks should blow it up after this year , correct ? Especially if Goldy walks
Keith Law: They have a $14.5 million option on him for 2019, which they will exercise. Very much worth exploring a trade for him and Greinke after this season, though. They could get a tremendous return, and clear some money to add elsewhere, without blowing the entire team up – they have some solid young pieces with a few years of control left. If they extend Goldschmidt, though, they might still trade Greinke to get rid of the contract but keep everything else intact.

Josh: Likelihood of the following outcomes for Lincecum (assuming he’s a RP only): 1) totally ineffective, washes out quickly 2) sticks around but isn’t very good, 3) adds some value as a middle reliever, 4) excels and becomes a closer/relief ace
Keith Law: I think 2 is most likely.

silvpak: given austin barnes’ elbow twinge this spring, utley’s advanced age, kelbert ruiz and will smith on the horizon, and forsythe coming to the end of his deal, what’s the likelihood LAD will, as the season progresses, start getting barnes more 2b experience? i have visions of craig biggio dancing in my head.
Keith Law: He has over 1400 innings at 2b in pro ball, so I don’t think he needs experience there. I do think they’ll turn to him if they have a need in-season at 2b or 3b.

Sally Fan: Would you send Juan Soto back to Hagerstown for the start of 2018, given his relatively short season there (he’d still be young for the league) or send him to Potomac?
Keith Law: I’d probably bump him up to Potomac. Hagerstown isn’t a great stadium or town anyway.

Nic: Chatting on Purim-I like this. Do you think the yankees are still the number 2 farm system after the drury trade?
Keith Law: It’s Purim? I had no clue. I should have made hamantashen. Yes, I do. They gave up two fairly minor prospects.

Fastball Velocity: How do I disappear from specific players? For example, Kolby Allard. Why has his velocity decreased so much in just one calendar year? You’ve mentioned his frame, but are there any other reasons?
Keith Law: Guys wear down, get hurt, lose muscle over the long season. Allard may just not have the stamina to be a good 180-inning starter. I love his upside if he shows this was just a one-year blip, though.

Tommy Pacu: Moncada recently: 0-3 on 7 pitches with two strikeouts. Is his swing and miss a big concern for Sox fans?
Keith Law: It is a big concern, yes.

Vince: Keith, who are some guys you’ll be watching in the Carolina League this year that weren’t there last year?
Keith Law: Ask me when we have rosters in April. I don’t really even think about that stuff until spring training ends.

Sadie: Do you like sausage or bacon more ? Hasbrown or home fries ?
Keith Law: Bacon. Hashbrowns. But I like all of these.

Tom: Keith, if they wanted to, could the Orioles even give away Davis or Trumbo, or do both have negative value?
Keith Law: Doubt you could give away Davis’s contract. Trumbo’s maybe but for no return.

Scouting: How hard is it to learn how to scout players? I’d like to dabble in it a little bit for fun, and I’d like to know where to start. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think you can dabble in this, sorry. So much of scouting is about building up a mental database of players over the course of years of doing it. It’s why I don’t read or refer to many blogs that try to do scouting reports; you can’t just buy a radar gun and go to a game and know how to scout.

Scott from FLA. Cubs fan: National League West and Central loaded, and Mets get to play Marlins Braves and Phillies A LOT. Huge advantage—- Disparity for Wild Card??
Keith Law: Yes, but first the Mets have to be good (healthy) enough to take advantage of this.

Matt: So Russia has a video of nukes headed towards Florida and Trump refuses to acknowledge sanctions let alone a possible nuclear attack. At what point does the GOP come to terms that our president is a danger to America?
Keith Law: The BBC podcast The Inquiry looked at the 2017 cyberattack on Ukraine that eventually affected over 60 countries, and the indirect evidence that Russia was behind it. It shut down hospitals and other critical systems here in the US. You’d think we’d do something about that, since it cost American businesses real money. (It’s their most recent episode, and that podcast in general is one of my favorites. One topic, 23-24 minutes, with four experts discussing it in turn.)

Charlie: I honestly think you should give this season of Top Chef a try. There has been some fantastic cooking recently and it’s the funniest group of chefs in a long time. I can’t defend the Logan Paul choice as a guest judge early on, but you mentioned you heard nachos was a winning dish. It was actually the losing dish in an admittedly weak tailgate challenge.
Keith Law: I’m not going back to start it now. Season’s starting, and plenty of other good stuff to watch. Unsolved episode one was fantastic.

David (VZLA): You’re Cashman…. Andujar or Drury to start the season?
Keith Law: Andujar starts, Drury on the roster of course.

John: Whats do you think is the bigger hold up for good middle of the rotation options line Lynn and Cobb, dollars or years?
Keith Law: Lynn has a pick attached, right? I think that’s a killer for guys left out there. Years probably a secondary factor.

Larry: Thoughts on unions? I agree whole heartedly with their purpose, but I also think they can be too powerful. I have a friend that missed 3 weeks of work without calling in, got “fired,” and he says he can’t be fired because he’s in the union. Sure enough two days later he got his job back. That’s pretty frustrating from my point of view and I hate that they have that much power. But the general purpose is great.
Keith Law: Unions also tend to raise costs to the end consumers, too. But if you had no unions, the balance would tip heavily in favor of capital (ownership). And they already have the money to beat you in court.

Craig: Who do you think wins the 3rd SD OF Job? Let the lottery ticket Franchy go for it and see if the tools translate?
Keith Law: Would love to see that.

John: After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Up and down guy at best.

Tony: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you’ve commented that the Pirates player development system hasn’t had success in changing swing angles to increase power. I read comments from the Pirates that they hoped with an adjustment to Bryan Reynolds’ swing angle his power would begin to play and he’d fulfill his potential. Question: do you think such a project is generally feasible and, in this specific instance, how high is Reynolds ceiling if he is able to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: I think it’s feasible for guys who already have some feel to hit and some natural power. I would love to get a time machine and try this with Ryan Sweeney, the best 5 o’clock power hitter I ever saw (who couldn’t do it in games, obviously).

Greyson: Have you heard any buzz on Tyler Kolek? Is he back near 100 or are those days over?
Keith Law: Check his stats from last year. If he’s 100, it’s to the backstop now.

Stu: The Reds are trying Senzel at SS… chance he sticks?
Keith Law: I think nearly zero.

Brian: A national reporter quoted a scout today saying that JP Crawford isn’t a good defender. How can any scout possibly think that?
Keith Law: No clue. Some scouts don’t like the way he plays – I’ve heard that on Brendan Rodgers too – and that may be coloring that one guy’s opinion on JPC. I think Crawford might be a 70 defender if he works at it.

Jack: Thoughts on Jose Israel Garcia? I’m falling in love with the tools from what I’m reading, but it’s so hard to find any video on the guy.
Keith Law: Everything i have on him is in the ‘just missed’ column. I’ve never seen the guy – almost no one has outside of a few teams who scouted him last June.

JM: Album yet to be released that you are most anticipating?
Keith Law: Courtney Barnett, Frank Turner, Speedy Ortiz.

Tye: Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?
Keith Law: How am I low on him? He’s a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don’t think he’s more than a 4.

Sean: I had a discussion with a co-worker about pitching injuries. My co-worker tried to make the case that the pitchers of old were more durable than today’s pitchers because of innings/pitch limits imposed today. I know this a preposterous claim, but I want to find a better way to illustrate to him that this not the case than just stating that reserve clause age pitchers were less incentivized to report injuries than today’s pitchers. Do you have area I can look to for greater knowledge on the issue?
Keith Law: They also didn’t throw anywhere near as hard as today’s pitchers. I think the average fastball velocity has been creeping up steadily for about 20 years now.

Chris : Knowing how much you love Chvrches but how you’re not a fan of Matt Berninger’s voice, how torn were you on whether to like the new Chvrches single featuring him?
Keith Law: I wasn’t torn at all. It’s terrible. So is “Get Out.”

Brian: I want to follow up on a question I asked last week: while most saw Mickey Moniak as a below dollar sign in a weak draft. But almost every draft analyst seemed to agree w/the Phillies that he had a good hit tool. That seems to have been exposed an incorrect., So what I’m wondering is how a consensus like that develops that’s incorrect? Is it something about what scouts saw or is it related to projecting how a guy will hit better pitching?
Keith Law: Scouts saw him hit well against good pitching as an amateur. I don’t know that I’d say it’s “incorrect;” you’d have to give him another year before going that far. I’d say that his hit tool isn’t as advanced today (present tool) as we thought. He might still hit.

Adam Doctolero: I find the research that has been done regarding the juiced baseballs to be fascinating and pretty damning for MLB, but I have a hard time reconciling that with their obsession with shorter games. Is MLB really dumb enough to not recognize that more offense leads to longer games, or are they just trying to have their hot fruit and eat it too?
Keith Law: Probably the latter. They’d love three-hour games with lots of homers. I guess you could do that with a giant strike zone?

Noah: Nats’ Jefry Rodroguez a prospect for you?
Keith Law: Saw him right before the suspension. A prospect, not an elite one.

Tom: So why are we fighting about ideas to stop school shootings? Lets do a bunch of stuff, stricter gun laws, armed security guards at schools, stronger security measures in schools, why is it always just one idea against another instead of a compromise where we put pieces of everyones thoughts together?
Keith Law: I can say for myself that a lot of the proposals for “stronger security measures” are going to be very expensive and produce very little benefit. (Some such measures, like metal detectors, just create new soft targets because they slow entry and crowds build up outside the building.) I want safer schools; I don’t want our governments spending a billion or so dollars on measures that won’t work.

Oscar: Debating getting a French Press or Pour Over for my office? Where do you fall? Any particular models you recommend?
Keith Law: Pour-over takes more time, but makes better coffee. I have a Hario, which was maybe $24.

Andy: Ken Griffey Jr also used to disrespect the game, by wearing his hat backwards.
Keith Law: Yes he did. So disrespectful.

Jim Nantz: Lincecum as a closer intrigues me if he’s actually throwing 90-93 as reports have suggested. Think he’s got anything left?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not impossible. Let’s see how hard he’s throwing when he throws three times in four games.

Scott: Please help me settle an argument with a friend. Does momentum exist in baseball? I cite the Sela and Simonoff study, but he showed me that Bill James believes it is possible it exists. What is your view?
Keith Law: It does not exist. Someone believing a thing is possible does not make it possible. (And your friend used a classic appeal to authority. “Keith Law believes it does not exist” isn’t a good argument either. Instead, tell him to show you evidence that this invisible, important thing is actually real.)

Craig: Where will Rodgers End up for the Rockies? Is he good enough to push Story out or is the more realistic thing to do is to move to second and move DJ?
Keith Law: I think the odds of Rodgers going to 2b or 3b are increasing.

Sandy Kazmir: How soon do you think we’ll see teams turning away from strikeout-prone hitters?
Keith Law: I believe some teams are already hunting for those guys – not just in the majors, but in the draft too.

Mike: Re: Acuna. I don’t think anyone can say they didn’t love watching the DR and PR play in the WBC last year. Watching Baez, Lindor, and Correa was so much fun every game.
Keith Law: If you didn’t love watching those dudes, you probably should go watch golf.

Rick Giolito: Keith, I went to all SS pans from Anodized but I’m having trouble keeping food from sticking. Help!
Keith Law: Stainless steel? I would guess you need to use more fat when cooking. Anodized is truly nonstick. Stainless steel is not nonstick – it’s great for searing or browning foods where you intend to use the brown bits left on the pan (fond) by deglazing.

Smith: What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

Matt: Schilling is a Parkland truther. WTF happened to him? Was he always that crazy?
Keith Law: No. I wouldn’t have been able to work with him if he were a hoaxer – I remember him specifically saying in the green room that he thought Alex Jones’ Sandy Hook hoaxerism was reprehensible. Now … I wasn’t going to let this shit affect my Hall ballot, but I think he just obliterated my principles.

Andy: Andrew Miller was also the top college pitching prospect and a top 10 draft pick, who failed at starting. So what teams need to do to develop the next “Andrew Miller type” is to have starting pitchers who have big stuff but may lack the control or enough pitches to last 6 innings.
Keith Law: Or the durability to go 180-200. This is something I’ve said about McCullers, and Fulmer, and Severino (who more than held up last year).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: The cooked hat things kills me. It has nothing to do with the player’s national origin. It’s like a crooked painting hanging on the wall. I have the overwhelming urge to run onto the field and straighten Strop’s or Rodney’s hat.
Keith Law: OK but that’s your OCD, no? (I’m a little bit the same way myself.)

Steve: A healthy Blake Swihart that can catch ~50 games, play 2B and some OF would be a wildly valuable guy if he’s average defensively, right? Chances he puts up a 2 win year?
Keith Law: Yep. I’m a big Swihart fan. If he’s healthy, and throwing fine, then I’ll bet on him going over 2 WAR.

Greg: Random question, have you tried an escape room? If so thoughts?
Keith Law: Only in board game form.

Kris: When reporters say IFAs are “linked” to a team does that almost guarantee that the player will sign with the linked team?
Keith Law: Yes. They have an oral agreement in place. This is illegal and happens all the time.

ScottyG: I know they shouldn’t, but WILL the Rays trade Archer this spring? If so, do the Cardinals have what it takes to make this happen? Archer/Martinez/Reyes has a nice ring to it….
Keith Law: At this point, I wouldn’t drop my price if I were the Rays. Try again in July.

Tommy Pacu: Hey – Alaskan here! Jeez, no love for the biggest state? Curious as to your thoughts on competition level of Alaska summer league. Lots of big names cycled through in the past but you never mention the league… is it relevant prospect wise these days?
Keith Law: Not any more, sadly. Would love to go scout there, though!

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, got any new metal to recommend?
Keith Law: The new Tribulation album is incredible.

ML: You think Tatis, Guerrero, or Bichette could make his MLB debut this season?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no for each of them.

Tom: Does Ryan Vilade have the talent to be a top 100 prospect someday? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jamal: Another way to test out board games is to check out your local library as they are increasingly available to rent.
Keith Law: That I have not seen, although my local branch does host a game night every month.

Todd Boss: Texas Wesleyan went ahead and fired that coach: http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22615612/texas-wesleyan-…
Keith Law: And there you go. I had a feeling they might, but I don’t know that this was truly a firing offense. It’s not comparable to saying you wouldn’t recruit a Muslim or black or gay player.

Dave: You seem to think pretty highly of Luis Medina given his “sleeper” status. Do you think he’ll have starter control/command as he matures?
Keith Law: I do. Hoping to see him this year at some point.

Humor me: In high school, I ran a 3.99 as a lefty from home to first. On the 20-80 scale, what is grade is that for speed?
Keith Law: About a 70.

ML: You a Denilson Lamet believer? #2 potential?
Keith Law: No. LHB killed him last year.

Tim : Do you think Tim Beckham has finally figured it out? Big league regular?
Keith Law: Great for two weeks after the trade, then back to normal.

MSS: Healthy lunches to eat in the office that aren’t salad?
Keith Law: I eat yogurt with granola and fruit for lunch almost every day.

Steve: I know your lukewarm on Sixto, but if he were to continue his path to potential of being an “ace” as some other scouts have claimed, what would you want to see from him this year?
Keith Law: I am not lukewarm on him. That’s just ridiculous – look where I ranked the kid.

Sandy Kazmir: Are you of the opinion that it is more likely that a good contact batter can add power than a good power hitter can add contact or is it too much of an individual thing to generalize like this?
Keith Law: You’re probably right that it’s too individual, but I’ll play along and pick the former over the latter.

Kwame : Is there a data driven way to determine how much managers help or hurt a team? Is this something teams do in some way? I think we all know managing a bullpen, not bunting etc helps but is there a way to rank managers?
Keith Law: I would bet teams track some of that stuff in ways we don’t/can’t.

Jesse: What are your thoughts on the legacy game format in general? As much as I love the concept, I’m still put off by the idea that I can’t replay the game through once it’s done. Plus I would think it tanks resale value.
Keith Law: Charterstone has a recharge pack you can buy to start over on the second side, and then you can continue to play it more without the story part. That’s part of its brilliance.

Todd Boss: Keith Kristol’s “question” reminds me of the quote from the Howard Stern movie, when the program director (when told that people who hated Stern listened longer than his fans), said, “If they hate him … why do they listen?”

If they hate you keith … why are they asking you questions and reading your content?
Keith Law: I will never, ever understand that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Just a tip, here are three things you aren’t changing very many people’s minds on: politics, religion, sexual orientation. Just a tip from your friendly Blue Eye.
Keith Law: You’ll notice I don’t discuss religion … pretty much ever.

Dan: Any Southeast PA prospects to go watch? Sianni, Helverson, Guilbe, Kelchner?
Keith Law: Siani for me – he’s probably the only one I’ll go see.

Craig: Ohtani is a bust! Look at his spring training stats. Only kidding but did you see or learn anything from watching him pitch that you didnt know?
Keith Law: I didn’t watch. I’ll go see him when I’m there – watching two tune-up innings from the CF camera isn’t going to show me anything.

Anon: My doctor has talked to me about taking Lexapro for general anxiety. While I’d appreciate the relief, I’m worried about how much of my identity would be affected. I’ve dealt with anxiety all my life and worry that who I am as a person might change. From your experience did you feel like you “changed” when you started medication?
Keith Law: I did change, but only for the better. Hit me up offline if you have more questions – I took it for five years.

JJ: Did you make a “Best Picture” pick for this year, or do I have to listen to the podcast you mentioned at the top of the chat?
Keith Law: You can listen to that or wait for a post here on Sunday.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: For the people crying about divisions–Central has Pirates and Reds; $100 says Phillies and Braves are better than both.
Keith Law: Probably true, although I wouldn’t sleep on the Reds’ pitching. Their bullpen could be tremendous.

Jeremy: When are you headed to Phoenix or Florida this year?
Keith Law: Phoenix first, but possibly detouring to Florida for a day to see a HS player, then Florida the 21-27 (I’m boxed in on both ends for that trip).

Paul: Do you think any of the remaining top free agents misses a significant amount of games from being unsigned?
Keith Law: It’s inevitable, I think.

Jack: Do you ever encounter really talented players that just don’t give a shit? I coach high school soccer and have a kid who could play professionally but he’d rather party. It’s so aggravating to see someone waste their potential.
Keith Law: Yep. Donavan Tate comes to mind.

Dr. Bob: Could changing the launch angle of a hitter without natural power just turn bloop hits into fly outs? Launch angle is not the answer by itself, is it?
Keith Law: No, it’s not. You’d better hit the ball hard first, and then work on launch angle.
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, sorry I’m missing so many more of your questions but I ran over to try to get to more. I’ll be at Auburn tomorrow night, weather permitting on both ends of the trip, so if you’re there feel free to say hi. Thank you as always for reading and chatting!