keith — Page 174

→ September 24, 2015
→ By keith

Do You Feel OK?

Superhumanoids first crossed my radar last year with their two-song release “Hey Big Bang” and “Come Say Hello,” dreamy electro-pop tracks that showcased lead singer Sarah Chernoff’s potent soprano voice. I’d missed their 2013 album Exhibitionists, which had a similar sound but lacked the stronger hooks from their 2014 EP; the promise of those two songs had me eagerly anticipating their second full-length album, Do You Feel OK?, which more than fulfilled expectations with a half-dozen single-worthy tracks that keep Chernoff front and center without skimping on the underlying melodies.

Superhumanoids’ sound draws on the electro-pop and new wave sounds of the 1980s but avoids sounding retro or derivative with distinctly modern production and more emphasis on layered music tracks below the vocals. The lead single, “Anxious in Venice,” is a glorious introduction to the album, bringing a new intensity that replaces the languorous feel of their previous work, and as a result has garnered some airplay on Sirius XM. Chernoff’s vocals rule the day, as they do on most tracks here, but it’s the throbbing beat behind her vocals that makes the song such a standout, bringing a funk or even disco element to the track that we haven’t heard from Superhumanoids before. Second single “Norwegian Black Metal” has the song title of the year for me, starting with a sample of Chernoff that sounds like she’s doing a bird call, shifting into a mid-tempo track that is more dream-pop than “Anxious,” restoring the ethereal quality that’s more part of their signature, but again with greater intensity and the introduction of a vocal melody that we’ll hear repeated through the rest of the album (on the line “what’s the delay?”).

This style of music – one that crosses a number of subgenres, but ultimately is synth-heavy electronic pop, with a slower tempo than dance music – can become repetitive over an entire album, which was a little true of Exhibitionists but is not the case at all on Do You Feel OK?. Shifting tempos helps, as “Dull Boy” drifts back into that dreamier (or perhaps stoner) territory after the first few songs have all had quicker paces, as does varying electronic drum lines and mixing up melodic elements across the various tracks. “Touch Me” is one of the most upbeat tracks and gets Chernoff soaring; her voice is main separator between Superhumanoids and other similar acts like CHVRCHES, led by another female vocalist whose voice is endearing but less powerful. She’s also very much the driver of the disturbing “Oh Me I,” a sweet-sounding track with the repeated couplet, “Everything implies/that we’re all going to die.” And suddenly I don’t feel OK.

There are experimental moments on the album, including the trip-hop crescendo-filled “Blinking Screens” (very successful) and the vaguely soul-influenced “Death Rattle” (less so), which also helps counteract the potential monotony that I find on so many electronic albums. Do You Feel OK? seems to be slipping under the general radar this month in the torrent of great alternative releases (CHVRCHES, Wavves, Telekinesis, Disclosure, New Order, Beirut, the Libertines, and more), but this album deserves far wider listening than it’s getting.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2015 in music, alternative, highly recommended, Music

→ September 23, 2015
→ By keith

Klawchat 9/23/15.

Re-education for the infants. It’s Klawchat.

Bill Brewtown: Brewers on the Upgrade with new GM ?
Klaw: I believe they are, although I have a real issue with a process where the candidate was apparently selected before they even discussed or interviewed other candidates. It’s a death knell for candidates of color. That’s absolutely nothing against Stearns, but against ownership. That said, they needed better analytical capabilities, which he’ll bring, and an overhaul in player development, which I don’t know if he brings.

Chris: With a very strong AFL performance — could Lucas Sims get into a top 100 prospect list?
Klaw: I can only speak to my own list, which doesn’t have anything to do with small-sample performances like the AFL would present.

Jay R.: Keith, I don’t disagree with you on this, I’m just curious as to your logic: what’s the difference between your stated rationale that potential future career success should factor in to Rookie of the Year voting, and another voter who thinks an MVP candidate should get a boost for playing on a contending team?
Klaw: The MVP rules say explicitly that the winner doesn’t have to be on a playoff team, and considering his team’s record introduces his teammates into an individual award. For the record, though, I’ve never argued that potential future success should be a major variable in ROY voting. I think player age should be a major one – a 28-year-old and a 20-year-old having the same season statistically aren’t equally impressive.

Dana: How good is Greg Bird? Seems like he’s a star in the making with patience, power and at least adequate D at first.
Klaw: Below average defense, probably a low average hitter, but 25-30 homers with a slew of walks is still a hell of a player and maybe a star.

Hudson vs Zito!!!!: Hey Keith! I apologize if you’ve answered this already, but your thoughts on Sean Nolin in Oakland? Do you think he could be a solid “middle of the rotation” guy?
Klaw: Nope, back-end starter at best for me. Big guy with iffy stuff and below average athlete.

John Houser: The Reds are featuring all rookies in the rotation. Any of these guys a long term solution?
Klaw: Lamb for sure. Iglesias probably. Finnegan is a reliever. Desclafani I’m not sold on but he has had an excellent season.

drew: Do you have any concerns over letting Arrieta finishing the game last night? I see a 29 year old who keeps himself in ridiculous shape and is completely capable of going 120 once in a while. His chances on CY?
Klaw: I don’t. He was facing a AAA lineup anyway.

Matt: It’s only been 30 or so games but how concerned are you about Buxton?
Klaw: Zero percent concerned because it’s only been 30 or so games … but it’s clear that Correa was the right call at 1-1 over him back in 2012.

Matt: Better career: Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Klaw: Rodgers.

HawkTalk: Keith, play Kreskin for us. When and where will Tony Kemp get his big league shot?
Klaw: Why should he? I don’t get the fascination. Poor defender, zero power, probably 5’4″, and didn’t hit in AAA.

Jay P.: Keith, do you think Harper will be a unanimous MVP this year?
Klaw: No because of narratives and because there are definitely writers who dislike him for having a personality.

Kevin: How high could you see Anderson Espinoza getting to next year? Is AA out of the question?
Klaw: My guess is he’ll be on some sort of workload limit that will keep him from advancing that fast.

Kyle: Does McCullers have a chance to stick as a starter or do you still see him as a closer long-term?
Klaw: Has the three pitches to start but not the command right now.

John: Bogaerts has been hitting for a little bit more power recently. Can he be a 20-25 HR guy?
Klaw: I think so – ball comes off his bat well, has the bat path to hit for power.

Howey: Just started college this week. During undergrad or graduate school did you ever envision yourself working in/around baseball for your career?
Klaw: Never. And I’m not sure if I would have done anything different if I had. Obviously playing baseball would have helped but with my size and metabolic disorder that wasn’t in the cards.

Anonymous: What do you think was Mets thinking in taking Cecchini over Seager in the 2012 draft?
Klaw: Seager would have required an over slot bonus and the Wilpons just don’t do that.

Ben: Before watching Lindor over the past few months would you have said the offensive profile of JP Crawford was similar? We can’t expect this of JP, right?
Klaw: Yes, I would have, and yes, I think we can.

Dave: Do you think Miller and Betances control issues are linked to their usage this season?
Klaw: I think it’s a fair question to ask but impossible to prove either way. I would love to see them get a few days off before the playoffs though.

Dan: More success in the next 5 years: Cubs or Astros?
Klaw: Cubs. Astros might have more talent in the system but Cubs have more predictable talent and will likely have a lot more money to spend.

Christian: Who should Braves target early in next year’s draft?
Klaw: Best player available, regardless of position. There’s no clear 1-1 in the draft right now, or even clear top two, so I wouldn’t pin them down to any player or class of players.

Chris, Larchmont: The playoffs are all about riding the hot hand. Am I crazy to think the Mets should start Matz in Game 1 of NLDS? He’s got plus stuff and, at the moment, has less questions than Harvey or even deGrom.
Klaw: The “hot hand” does not exist. It’s a myth. The few studies that purport to show that it does all end up exposed as having major methodological flaws.

Daniel: Do you support reseeding after the regular season, or sticking with current playoff format? NL Central is gonna get screwed by the current format, but this is a pretty rare circumstance
Klaw: I don’t like changing rules in response to one outlier circumstance that is just a question of (subjective) fairness.

Frank: You generally had positive things to say about Schwarber, but you justifiably ranked him low on your lists due to defensive concerns and whether he’d find a spot on the field. Are there any guys in the near future who might be low on your ranks but have a similar high floor if they can get on the field?
Klaw: Bird would have been higher if I thought he could play good defense at first (on which I’m not sold). AJ Reed still isn’t very good at first but obviously he can hit.

James: About when should we expect your offseason prospect extravaganza on espn?
Klaw: End of January. Takes me a good month to put it all together.

Nick: What would be a reasonable trade package for the Red Sox to give up for Matt Harvey?
Klaw: If I’m the mets I’m insisting on one of the big 3 of Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart, plus two other guys from the system. Ask for the moon and you might get it. The problem is that Boston can just say screw you, we’re going to go sign two elite starter free agents.

Godd Till: Have you read Underworld? Have you caught Norris’s last two starts? Thoughts on either?
Klaw: Haven’t and won’t read it. Norris looked so much better last night – stuff seems to be all the way back now.

Will: Who’s the next breakout stud from the Cubs after Torres and Contreras this year?
Klaw: Cubs fans gettin’ all greedy now.

Seth: Tim Anderson’s ceiling?
Klaw: Above-average everyday shortstop. Good defense, avg, low OBP, some pop.

Django: Chance that Appel turns out to be a better 1-1 than Bryant? (And is it true the Cubs preferred Appel?)
Klaw: Don’t think there’s a chance of that, and I have mixed intelligence on their prefs so I don’t know.

Tony: Any scouting updates on Luis Ortiz from the end of the season?
Klaw: Heard he was 95-97 again but in short bursts. Still a big fan.

Nick: Frazier or Zimmer the better Indians OF prospect right now?
Klaw: Zimmer, not close for me. Saw Frazier in the playoffs – same issues with swinging and missing at stuff in the zone, not picking up spin. Reminded me of Michael Choice although choice was older.

Bobby: Hey Klaw. Corey Seager is a bad a**. That’s all I got.
Klaw: He is absolutely a badass, and over here you don’t have to censor yourselves!

Eric: Can the voters be wrong if any of the following 3 win the NL Cy Young between Greinke, Kershaw or Arrieta?
Klaw: I’m fine with any of them, but I don’t like Arrieta getting pushed up for the win total. Let’s do it for the right reasons, shall we?

Dave: Do they Mets re-sign both Murphy and Cespedes? I can’t see them sending Conforto down to make room next year.
Klaw: I think neither. Murphy isn’t worth the cost anyway and Cespedes seems likely to be overpaid based on August.

J: Starting Marilynne Robinson’s Houskeeping this week. If I remember correctly you liked it?
Klaw: Loved it. I adore her writing, and the prose in that book has this haunting sparse quality that I will never forget.

Mrs. Grichuk: Injured recently, but has Grichuk moved up to a legit daily corner OF as opposed to a platoon/4th OF?
Klaw: Not for me. I don’t think you can be an everyday corner guy with plate discipline that poor.

Chris Wilcox: How does Michael Conforto only have 12 PA vs lefties in almost 2 months in the majors? Considering the problems that Murphy, Duda, and Granderson have against left handed pitching, is he really any worse of a candidate to face lefties than they are? He seemed to hit lefties reasonably well in the minors, no?
Klaw: He’ll never learn to hit them if they don’t let him face them … and they’re winning that division so it’s not like they have to bench him to help the team right now.

MJ: What do you think the Jays SHOULD do with Osuna next year? Leave him as closer or stretch him out to start? If they start him, how would you manage his innings? Start him in the bullpen and stretch him out by ASB, shut him down early, skip starts, or some other way?
Klaw: Can’t just jump him to 180 innings, so I’d consider making him a sort of long reliever early in the season to stretch him out. I do think he should get a chance to start again.

Ed: I’ve heard that Dillon Cease’s fastball is looking good, but that his control isn’t there at all. Does this line up with where he was at pre-TJ? Is he progressing as you’d expect or is it still too early to tell? Thanks!
Klaw: He walked 16 in 25 innings about a year off surgery. I don’t think that’s remotely alarming or surprising. If he’s still walking 6 per 9 in 2017 I’d be worried.

Phil: Do you think the Mets are going to trade Harvey in the offseason?
Klaw: I think they’ll entertain offers, but if they do so, they almost have to get a young starter back because they traded away their depth in Fulmer and Meisner. Without Harvey they’re at five starters, with Colon presumably gone as a free agent, and of the five remaining three have had some kind of significant injury in the past.

Dave: Do we see james kaprielian up at some point next year?
Klaw: I think he could but the Yankees don’t always move recent draftees aggressively. He’s more command than pure stuff so I think he’ll rip apart A ball next year.

Tom: I think it’s interesting that Twitter/Chat Klaw says that Arreita shouldn’t get pushed up for the Wins total, but BBTN Klaw last night mentioned Arrieta’s 20 wins as something that could be considered. Is it harder in a live forum like that to dispel certain stats especially when your co-hosts are bringing it up?
Klaw: Hold on a minute. I specifically said on the show that won-lost records shouldn’t be considered, but that some voters do consider them and that would help his candidacy. There’s a difference between me arguing who should win and me predicting who will win.

Dan: How did Jake Thompson look when you saw him pitch against Bowie?
Klaw: 90-93, above avg cb, avg-ish SL, handful of mid-80s changeups. Fourth starter who could end up a three or better due to his command and control. Delivery works too, very compact and online to the plate.

Rob: Thoughts on Molly Knight’s comments regarding Yadi?
Klaw: I think she’s generally right in the sense that they are not the same team without him calling games. They’re not dead, but it’s hard to replace what he does with that staff.

Dan: If anybody is going to pull away from the pack and be the clear-cut No. 1 overall pick next year, who’s most likely to do that?
Klaw: The one guy I haven’t seen in this group, Alec Hanson at Oklahoma, was up to 98 in their fall scout day with an above avg slider. Listed at 6’7″, 235. He could end up pulling a Gerrit Cole and separating himself quickly.

Scott: Do you think the Giants re-sign Marlon Byrd? Relatively cheap, and while he isn’t awesome, he’s likely better than anybody else they’d throw out there in LF? Horrible contact rate, but does have some pop.
Klaw: Not on Williamson? I think he can be more productive than what’s left of Byrd, who can’t play defense and as you said is a one-trick guy at the plate.

Rob: How did Kang do vs. what you thought he’d do, and how do you think his success will affect the bidding on Park?
Klaw: I rated him pretty highly – top 15 free agent last winter, thought he’d get about twice as much as he did. I don’t think anything will fully convince GMs that Korean hitters or Japanese hitters are safe bets.

Lars: What have you heard about Nick Gordon. Seems like he really raked for the last 3 months of the season. Do you think he’s a top 100 guy?
Klaw: He was a top 100 guy last winter and he still is one for me. High-contact SS with a chance for more pop than Dee.

Chris H.: Heard the new Chvrches yet (it’s streaming on NPR)? If so, initial thoughts?
Klaw: I’m streaming it right now. I’d already heard 4-5 songs though – “Leave a Trace” might be my favorite song of theirs.

Scott: Good call on Williamson, from my earlier question. Are Beede or Crick ready to join the rotation next year? Thanks again for keeping these chats going. I’m sure I’m speaking for many when I say “thank you.”
Klaw: Don’t think so. Crick has to go to the bullpen; Beede is now throwing 88-89 mph sinkers, his slider has backed up, and he had a 5.60 ERA in AA with bad peripherals.

Justin: Thoughts on Stephen A’s tweet about Andrew Miller as non-closer? Don’t know how you deal with working for that network.
Klaw: It was a scorching hot take. You’d have to be quite ignorant of baseball to think of Miller as some generic reliever; he’s been elite for a little while now, and the comparison to Rivera is absurd because Mo is the best one-inning closer in history.

Nick: From a “readiness” standpoint, who would you feel more comfortable slotting into your opening day rotation next year between Urias, Giolito, or Appel?
Klaw: Appel over Giolito way over Urias.

Jay: Re: Coghlan’s slide, something being commonplace and accepted also doesn’t make it ok.
Klaw: Also true. Like, say, ~39 states lacking any laws banning discrimination against transgender people.

Bob: How highly do you rate Yogi Berra? Not to speak ill of the dead, but it seems that some of his ranking by most is due to his being on some great Yankee teams. Looking at the stats, none of his three MVP awards was deserved. Ted Williams smoked him twice but didn’t play on a championship team those years.
Klaw: I think he’s been overrated because of the teams on which he played, the city in which he played, and his personality. His teammates adored him, the media adored him, the fans adored him, he even got a boost because George Steinbrenner treated him like garbage. Definitely a HoFer though.

Kirk: How does Max Kepler fit into the Twins plans over the next year? Don’t expect him to start the the season in the bigs, but by July I would think he’d be banging on the door…
Klaw: Right field? I know they want to re-sign Hunter, but he’s terrible – as predicted – and they need to move on from that nonsense.

Javier: Hot take: Wu-Tang Clan is or is not something to fuck with?
Klaw: Sources say they are not.

Jeff: Didi Gregorious has been a pleasant surprise after a rough start to the season. He will probably finish with a 3 fWAR season. Is that a reasonable expectation for him or is there more upside?
Klaw: Maybe a little more avg. Otherwise this is what I thought he would be.

Tom: I know you disdain the IBB in nearly all cases, but last night Scioscia IBB’d the winning run with 2 outs in the 9th to face Gattis, a guy who strikes out a lot and doesn’t get on base much. And, presto, he struck out to end the game. Because this actually worked, does it make it good strategy for the situation?
Klaw: I think the math on that one – and like it or not, the IBB is a math question, not a question of what your gut flora tell you – is complex, because Gattis isn’t really a major league hitter. Guys with .275 OBPs (or .500 OBPs) probably fall outside the probability distributions covered by run expectancy charts. Gattis vs any RHP with a decent breaking ball is a bad matchup for Houston, to the point where they should be PH for him late in games.

Chris H: physical newspapers or digital?
Klaw: I haven’t gotten a physical paper in over a decade. I do still read physical books as well as e-books.

Bob: Regarding take-out slides, isn’t the concept of physically interfering with a fielder doing his job contrary to the entire spirit of the game? It’s not a contact sport. For instance, we don’t let players use their hands to knock the ball out of a fielder’s glove (like A-Rod a few years ago).
Klaw: It’s also against the rules. If you’ve been called out, and then go walk over to the guy with the ball and put him in a chokehold, you’re going to get suspended. Why wouldn’t sliding into the guy with your knees up get the same response?

Jonny Bison: I have a ten-month old daughter, and I have found myself throttling back career ambitions so that I can devote more time/energy to fatherhood. I know that you have made similar decisions. Do you think there is an age your daughter will reach where you will start considering career options that you aren’t currently?
Klaw: She’s nine and I’m not really there. If anything I want to be home more than ever because we can do so many more things together. We cook together, we read together, we play boardgames together, we’re going apple picking this weekend, I want to teach her to ride a bike this fall … I’d be nuts to want less time at home.

Zach: Astros DH next season is……?
Klaw: Reed or White.

Troy: pretty sure you’re the biggest brewers hater I’ve ever seen? Why is that? You hate the process for hiring a new gm, but they interviewed brooks, bloom, kantrovitz and Montgomery too. you hate the players, hate the former GM, hate the farm system, hate the owner. Why are you so negative? did gord ash do something to you in Toronto? You’re like a little girl.
Klaw: Sorry, I had to stop laughing before I could answer this. You’re the one having a tantrum in my chat, but I’m “like a little girl” (which is offensive to me as the father of a little girl who could quite easily put you in your place). As for the interview process, I know a lot more about it than you do – including where your list of candidates is wrong.

Ben: Keith, why do we still hear the title “best hitter in baseball” assigned to Miggy? He’s had an extraordinary career, but isnt BHIB currently pretty clearly Number 34 in red? (Unless one thinks he has had a career year at age…22.
Klaw: It’s like an honorific or some crap like that. Miggy’s a great hitter still but not what he was a few years ago and of course not likely to stay healthy for 160 games any more.

Joe: Just saw Neftali Feliz pop up with Detroit, hadn’t seen his name in a while. What went wrong/never materialized for him?
Klaw: Wasn’t quite the same after injuries. Maybe wasn’t that good to begin with but the arm was so electric we were all seduced by it.

JP: Klaw – if your daughter is with a friend’s family and they say, “hey we want to take the girls to McDonalds” how do you respond?
Klaw: Fine with me. My daughter might not be pleased though.

JP: Joe Sheehan tweeted that there are now 4 NL Central teams with analytic front offices…..and the Reds. True or False?
Klaw: Brewers aren’t there yet. Maybe in a year.

Pat: Would you sign Jason Heyward to play CF, or just keep him in a corner?
Klaw: Probably in a corner, to avoid a risk of injury.

Chuck: Who is one player that the media fawns over that really drives you nuts? Someone they waaaaay overrate?
Klaw: Francoeur came up earlier this summer. Torii Hunter. Not a player but the idea that Showalter can do no wrong here – when every one of his previous stops has seen him wear out his welcome faster than a vegan in a butcher shop – perplexes me.

Kris Bryant: Better question is, why is Coghlan playing almost every day which leaves Soler or Baez (or both) on the bench.
Klaw: Veteran presents?

JP: Joe Sheehan tweeted that there are now 4 NL Central teams with analytic front offices…..and the Reds. True or False?
Klaw: Brewers aren’t there yet. Maybe in a year.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on the new developments in the Patrick Kane case and do you think he should be allowed to still play while he is being investigated for these charges?
Klaw: NHL has the right to suspend him pending resolution and then to conduct its own investigation to determine his fitness to play. And they should.

Oliver Samuel: How would you rank Conforto’s tools and has his performance in the majors increased what you think his fielding ceiling is?
Klaw: No, I thought he could be a solid avg defender in left even on draft day. (Thanks to Rising Apple Blog for digging that up earlier this week.) 60/65 hit, 55 power, 50 glove, I think a 50 or better arm, and while it’s not a tool his plate discipline is plus-plus.

Robert: Coghlan plays because he has a 3.1 fWAR this year, while Soler and Baez have combined for a 0.5 fWAR.
Klaw: Soler and Baez had lower WARs because they were hurt/in the minors. On June 15th Kyle Schwarber had a 0.0 fWAR. Maybe they shouldn’t have played him at all after that?

Pat: Is Jorge Posada a HOFer?
Klaw: Not for me, but he’ll get 30-40% of the vote or so. The sad thing is he would have a much better case if they hadn’t buried him behind Girardi till Jorge turned 26.

Ryan: I really enjoyed the movie reviews you used to do more frequently here on the Dish. What some of your favorite movies you have seen in 2015?
Klaw: I lost my movie buddy (Nick Piecoro) when I left Phoenix. I’ve seen Inside Out and Birdman and I think that’s it. It’s awful.

Jeff: One of my favorite articles you wrote was Tim Raines and the HOF. On that note, do you think that Harper’s season is easier to overlook because Trout accomplished these numbers 2-3 years prior?
Klaw: Thank you. That’s possible, although I think Harper having a personality has hurt him more. Remember when Boswell called him the 7th-best player in their lineup? I don’t know how you look at his skillset and say something like that.

Chris H.: Hot dogs: (a) avoid at all costs; (b) fine, in moderation; or (c) more please?
Klaw: I eat maybe one or two a year.

Will: Why does it seem like the O’s have so much trouble with young pitching (Matusz, Arrieta – before he left, Gausman, Tillman, injuries to Harvey/Bundy)? Is it just the natural risk involved with young arms or do you see an issue in their system?
Klaw: Any time you see that many arms fail to pan out in a short period of time you have to at least consider the most likely explanation that it is a systemic problem, and try to rule that out before accepting that it’s a fluke. Showalter has definitely moved too many guys on the rubber to their detriment. And I’ve now heard a few times from different sources about him and their former pitching coach getting into huge arguments with Arrieta.

Chris H.: Do you or does someone else decide the “sports coat, no tie” look on BT?
Klaw: The exec overseeing BBTN this year dispensed with ties. I’m thrilled – I have always found them uncomfortable and I think dressing more casually lends itself to us being more loose on set. Eduardo and I have been joking around on the show a lot this week and I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

Harrison: Does Austin Meadows develop 25 homerun power? Still a Jay Bruce comp?
Klaw: It is in there but he has to hit the ball on a line more and less on the ground. I’m still a believer because he’s young and the pirates do develop players well.

Ed_____: Wow. And so another kitten is lost needlessly.
Klaw: When the current mass extinction event hits Felis catus, you’ll know who to blame. That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much as always for joining me. I’ll be on the late BBTN tonight right after the Dodgers/Dbacks game, and on Thursday night as well. Next Periscope and Klawchat will be next week and my annual “players I got wrong” piece will go up tomorrow. Thanks again!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ September 19, 2015
→ By keith

Saturday five, 9/19/15.

My Insider post this week named Astros first baseman A.J. Reed my 2015 Prospect of the Year, while listing other prospects who had fantastic years and highlighting Boston’s Andrew Benintendi for the best pro debut by a 2015 draftee.

I held my regular Klawchat here on Thursday. This upcoming week I may shift the chat and Periscope up by a day each, to Wednesday and Tuesday respectively.

And now, the links…

Here’s a shocker: Most fast-food and fast-casual chains use meat loaded with antibiotics. The major exceptions aren’t surprising; both Chipotle and Panera have been committed to eliminating meat from animals raised with antibiotics for years.
A wonderful chart highlighting twenty of the most common cognitive illusions that screw up our decision-making. If you want to learn more about these, read my reviews of the books The Invisible Gorilla and Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Mexico has a real problem with woman and girls vanishing without a trace, often to human traffickers.
This beautiful description of general relativity is an excerpt from an upcoming book that comes out this Thursday in Europe called Seven Brief Lessons on Physics. It’s just £7 through that amazon UK link.
More goodness from J. Kenji Lopez-Alt at the Food Lab: The best way to reheat that old bagel. Lopez-Alt’s book, The Food Lab: Better Home Cooking Through Science, comes out on Tuesday.
A good overview of the rising popularity of bitters.
The good news about the vaccine denial we saw in this week’s GOP ~~circus~~ debate was that the outcry against it was swift and severe. The bad news, as this Atlantic piece argues, is that vaccine denialism is now being linked to fear of big government, and that makes it even harder to argue with these dangerous nitwits.
Hugh Acheson brought his wisdom to food trucks in Luxembourg this week, which I mostly included because I’ve been to Luxembourg and it is kind of adorable.
The New York Times looks back at the 1815 eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia, the most destructive volcanic eruption in modern history, a cataclysm that resulted in a massive global cooling episode. The spur for the piece was the release of a new book on the subject, Tambora: The Eruption That Changed the World, this past Tuesday. The author is quoted in the article.
That recent incident where a security guard at a Whole Foods beat a black customer unconscious is a symptom of a larger trend, where lots of minimally-screened guards are running around, often with guns, rarely with consequences for their actions.
Exxon’s own researchers showed their fossil fuels would lead to global warming back in 1977, which they subsequently ignored as they championed climate-change denial in the 1990s.
The hot mess that is Cobb County’s new stadium for the local racist-nicknamed baseball team is even worse than you thought because fans won’t have a safe route from the parking lot to the stadium. This wouldn’t have been such an issue if the majority-white (65%) county had allowed the light rail line to build a route to the stadium, but they didn’t want those city folk (Atlanta’s population is 54% black) to have such easy access.
Ruhlman waxes poetic on duck confit for Thomas Keller’s new magazine.
The BBC’s Why Factor explores why we love tea while giving a brief history of the drink.
Bloomberg looks at how most daily fantasy players lose money. A tiny percentage of players racks up nearly all of the winnings.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: climate change, links, saturday five, science, tea, vaccines

→ September 17, 2015
→ By keith

Klawchat 9/17/15.

Klaw: Flying in the face of fashion … it’s Klawchat.

Nate: Does Jorge Lopez make your top 100? If so, what range would you slot him?
Klaw: I don’t know if he’s a top 100 guy – I won’t really sit down to work on that until December – although I do like him for what he is, an average FB/good CB guy who can really pitch and has a good delivery.

Jeff: Is Albert Almora going to be good enough offensively to be a big league regular? He finished strong at AA but I would think his glove can only carry him so far.
Klaw: If he doesn’t walk or hit for power, he’ll have to hit .290-.300 on a regular basis to be a quality everyday player. AJ Pollock did something along these lines, but he could also really run, and I think he’s always had better plate discipline than Almora.

Willy: What changed with Jake Thompson since the trade to make him perform so much better with Reading?
Klaw: I don’t know if anything changed, but I’m going to see him tonight at Bowie in their playoff game, which will be fairly loaded with prospects (him, Nick Williams, JP Crawford, Andrew Knapp, Chance Sisco, Trey Mancini). If any of you decide to come to the game, please swing by and say hi.

Jon V: Keith – are you a bit surprised at Lindor’s offensive numbers for his first half year in the big leagues?
Klaw: No, not really. He could always hit and his approach has been very advanced since he was in high school. I had some doubts about him his senior year, but in hindsight I think I was channeling industry fatigue from seeing him so much. He may actually have been *over*scouted.

Tim: DJ Davis…still a prospect?
Klaw: Still not a player. (I never liked that pick. Second or third round, sure, but first, way too risky a profile.)

Cody Rhoads: I liked your suggestion of Ray Montgomery for Phillies GM. Chaim Bloom is interviewing in Milwaukee today, is he another option for Philadelphia?
Klaw: I haven’t heard any specific names in Philly at all. Jayson Stark said last Thursday that MacPhail hadn’t made any calls yet on that spot.

Marcus: Do you think the Angels took away the running game away from Trout or was it his own decision?
Klaw: More the former. Supposedly it bothers Pujols to have Trout running in front of him.

Ben: Is there any chance we’ll get to see a sneak peek of Orlando Arcia in Milwaukee once Biloxi’s playoffs have concluded?
Klaw: He’s not on the 40-man now, so unless he has to go on this winter to protect him from the rule 5 (I don’t know offhand), I would say no.

Mike: Besides Tyler Kolek and Josh Naylor, is there anyone we can actually get excited about in Miami’s system?
Klaw: I’m not sure you should get that excited about those guys either.

JR, Connecticut: Hi Keith, hope you got to see some of the abhorrent nonsense on vaccines during thaat clown show of a debate last night. Do you see the Mets resigning Cespedes in the offseason and if so what would you think a fair contract would be?
Klaw: I didn’t watch the debate, because a room full of science deniers like that isn’t reallly the place for me. I’m not a “single-issue” voter, but I will say that if you deny the basic science on vaccines, evolution, or climate change, I can’t vote for you. Accepting facts is sort of a necessary condition. I don’t think they’ll re-sign him – I think he’ll get wildly overpaid by the market relative to his projected output, probably well north of $20MM/year.

Wally: What would you do this offseason if you were Nats GM – plug in behind the departing FAs, or even more dramatic reconstruction? Let’s assume the manager goes (might not be a slam dunk for them, but is for most fans)
Klaw: Turner to SS, AJ Cole and Tanner Roark to the rotation, Giolito to AAA, Reynaldo Lopez to the major-league bullpen. The tough one is CF: Michael Taylor’s glove is exceptional, but can you live with a year or two of offensive struggles? I can, but ownership might disagree.

C Hoffman: Can I play with madness?
Klaw: There’s no vision there at all.

John Houser: The Rangers have been aggressive with Brinson and Mazara. Is there room for both of them in Arlington next year? I am thinking Brinson could use a full AAA season.
Klaw: Brinson’s glove is ready but I agree with you at least to the extent that Brinson should start in AAA with a goal of maybe 200 or so AB. Mazara seems more ready, but where does he play? Can they dump Choo’s contract on someone? He’s an awfully expensive platoon player, and since they’re both LHB you can’t even work them both in.

Tally Dave: Keith, Jake Arrieta has a 2nd half ERA of 0.90, which if holds up would be the lowest in MLB history…just crazy about his dominance over an extended period…to me it’s a no-doubter but what would be your order between Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke?
Klaw: Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta, although if you want to flip the first two I’m fine with that. I don’t see why the second-half ERA should count more than the first (in fact, it should count less as the second half is usually shorter).

Jonathan: As a Red Sox fan do I have a right to be concerned that Dombrowski is going clean out the farm AND bring Frank Wren in as GM?
Klaw: You absolutely have that right, at least until proven otherwise.

Dave: Bryan Mitchell’s 67 ERA+ … SSS slump, not that good, or not ready?
Klaw: Not that good.

Jeff: Travis d’Arnaud looks like a superstar. Is this his ceiling if he can ever stay healthy?
Klaw: I think so. He was my #7 or #8 prospect one year with the Mets, before the injuries started. I’m not sure he will ever be healthy enough to catch 130 games in a season, but I hope I’m wrong.

MSW: So it seems like ESPN isn’t killing chats after all? Schoenfeld and Karabell have held their normal chats this week. Just wondering what’s going on with them in general.
Klaw: I have no idea. Klawchats are here now, and only here.

Larry Dodger: Does Urias hit majors in 2016? It seems like Dodgers have limited his innings so much it does not seem like he goes over 125 IP next year.
Klaw: He also was horrible in a brief AAA stint. Why push him? He should come up when he’s ready to contribute in some role, not when the fans (or the owners, who I imagine see dollar signs with him) demand it.

JR, Ct: Hi Keith, noticed only one New Haven pizzeria on your best of list. Whatof the other big hitters (Sally’s/Modern)?
Klaw: Haven’t been. Might try one next week.

Dave: It is clear the Reds think Michael Lorenzen has a lot of potential. It is also pretty clear he is a pretty bad MLB pitcher right now. What does he need to fix, and do you see him doing it?
Klaw: I think and have long thought he’d have to go to the bullpen. Big fastball without enough life, no above average secondary pitch.

Jerome Seinfeld: If a player who pitches in 30-35 games can win the MVP, why not Cespedes?
Klaw: False analogy time! A pitcher has more impact on the outcome of a game he starts (facing 30 or so batters) than a position player does (about 4 plate appearances and a couple of plays in the field).

CJ: Is Aaron Altherr turning into a pretty good player? Or will he be an average regular?
Klaw: Great athlete but probably an extra/bench guy in the long run. Still young enough to surprise, though.

Corey Anderson: If mlb changed roster sizes and had an active roster and inactive roster for a specific game, how many players would you like to see active on game day? How many player should each team carry as inactive?
Klaw: The real question there is how many bench players and relievers – you need 8 (NL) or 9 (AL) hitters and one starting pitcher as a given. Is a 5-man bench and 6-man bullpen sufficient, giving a little more flexibility to managers in September as they cope with tired/sore players?

Bryan: You’ve talked a lot about position on the rubber for Gausman, Should different pitchers start on different spots on the rubber?
Klaw: Yes. Whatever works for them – some guys want to be on their glove side (1b for a RHP) so they’re more online to the plate; some guys (e.g., Arrieta) want to be on their arm side to get that cross-body deception.

hankpsu: Keith, did you see the slide by Coghlan that (more than likely) ended Kang’s season? Legit play?
Klaw: No, I was here, but if that ends Kang’s season that sucks.

BM: What is your opinion of Servino now….Still think he will end up as a RP? Thanks
Klaw: Yes, I do. Now that everyone has had a chance to see him a few times, don’t you see the same delivery concerns I did – the lack of use of the lower half, the big arm speed generated entirely from his torso and shoulder?

Erix: Hi Keith! Can you tell me a bit about Toronto RHP Connor Greene? The Jays seem to be quite bullish on him.
Klaw: Saw him in HS against Dominic Smith – Greene was a skinny little guy, 89-90 with some control but all projection. He’s been hitting 97 this year, so good job by the Jays with that pick.

MSW: You’ve always been one of the highest on Gavin Cecchini, and it seems like his bat is coming along. However, he has posted 28 errors at SS. Since I can only scout the stat line, I’d love your opinion on his future. Can he stick at SS? Future utility guy? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Shortstop. Hands, range, instincts all there. Has the arm strength but had trouble with throws in the first half – very erratic, not Steve Sax bad but not good. That tapered off in the second half – I think he had 21 errors in their first half (about 70% of their season), 7 in the second.

BJInIndiana: What are your thoughts about rehab stints during MiLB playoffs? I’m a Cubs fan, but Soler starting for the Pelicans felt a little off to me.
Klaw: Yeah, I’m not a fan, although with Soler playing about half effort level when I saw the game here on Monday it didn’t matter.

Thomas: More upside Adam Warren or Ivan Nova?
Klaw: You guys know my position on this: hitters shouldn’t get ‘time’ except in extraordinary circumstances.

Chris: would Kevin Maitan even at such a young age come anywhere close to a top 100 list?
Klaw: Absolutely not.

Josh: Have you had a chance to watch Mychal Givens pitch? Future closer?
Klaw: Yes. Sidearm guy, though, and had some trouble with LHB in the minors. Great stuff, but if lefties continue to get to him he won’t be able to close.

Dan: No question, just a thanks. Your chats are fun to read, thanks for finding an alternative way to do them.
Klaw: You’re welcome – thank you all for sticking with me and coming over here to keep them going. The chats would be very boring without readers asking questions.

Jake: Iran Deal. Good or bad.
Klaw: Good. Not perfect, but what treaty ever is?

aj: what was your thought on Zagunis when you saw him in Delaware?
Klaw: Saw several games and he was never in the lineup.

John: How far has Wilson Contreras moved himself up the prospect list this year? Is he getting close to a top 100 guy? Thanks!
Klaw: He’s legit and one of the top catching prospects in the minors right now. Really, if you can catch and throw and hit just a little, you’re a top 100 consideration guy at this point. The scarcity of catchers pushes up the value of the few who can really do it.

Ryan: Kang was just taken out of the game on a way-out-of-the-baseline slide in the Bucs-Cubs game. If we’re addressing the Catch collisions, this has to be addressed at some point right? No idea how Kang is doing yet, but someone could easily tear up a knee ligament on one of these.
Klaw: Did Coghlan go for the player not the base? (I don’t want to pause the chat to go watch – I’ll look after) To me that should be an automatic ejection and suspension. Sliding at the fielder while just sticking a hand out at the base doesn’t clear you. Intent to “take out” is intent to injure. Let’s not be naive here.

C Stone: It seems like all the Orioles SPs have regressed like crazy in the second half, after improving greatly during the second half last year. Bad luck? Bad coaching? Or are they just pitching to their true talent now?
Klaw: I have raised the question or even the criticism of Buck and his coaching staff’s culpability and was told I was nuts or biased or whatever. He’s a good manager overall, but if what he’s doing there isn’t working and in fact is actively hurting the team, then that’s a problem. From pitchers there regressing or failing to develop to Arrieta leaving and making simple mechanical adjustments that turned him into an ace, at some point Buck should have to answer for what’s gone on.

Guesto: Not baseball related but writing/journalism related: thoughts on the major layoffs at NYDN, NOLA Times Picayune? Are we watching the death of journalism?
Klaw: Newspapers have been dying for a long time anyway. I’m more upset about NOLA in effect losing its one newspaper than NYC potentially losing one of three. Plus, all this handwringing over the ‘big names’ at the NYDN … first of all, don’t weep for the big names, weep for the little names who never made that much money to begin with. And, second, has everyone forgotten that Bill Madden was an unrepentant strikebreaker back in 1990-91?

Doug: Can you tell me a bit about Ryan O’Hearn. Lead the Sally in HR before being promoted and still finished 1st. Then had a 125 wRC+ in a tough Wilmington park/league. K’s will be a concern, but seems like a perhaps first division profile role 50 possibly. How’s the defense look?
Klaw: He’s not a regular or close to it, power over hit without much of an approach, 1b only … and I don’t know where you got that silly scouting lingo but it makes no sense to me.

Tom: Any other read-aloud suggestions in addition to Jasper FForde? We really liked Sheila Turnage’s stuff.
Klaw: We’ve done the Harry Potter series and all of the Paddington books as well. She also liked Around the World in 80 Days after its somewhat slow start. Treasure Island didn’t grab her so we ditched that.

Mike: I know you aren’t big in to what veteran presence or clubhouse chemistry can bring to a team. I’ve been reading The Happiness Advantage and it says that the biggest factor in team success (granted they mean corporate world) is how well everyone works together. Thoughts on how that applies to baseball and is there a way to measure it?
Klaw: And other books, including Jonah Lehrer’s now out of print Imagine (pulled because he fabricated a bunch of stuff in another chapter), and studies have shown that conflict in the office produces more creative results. Amazon is a good example of that – that NY Times article arguing it’s a horrible place to work (and in some cases it might be) didn’t consider the effect that this crazy internal competition is what has made the company both innovative and successful.

Scott: What are good projections for Trea Turner? I want to know just how bad the Padres are going to regret that trade.
Klaw: That’s going to be some grade 70 regret for them and grade 80 for the Rays.

Daniel Zaudtke: Can we stop and admire the formation of the next great player in Bryce Harper?
Klaw: Works for me. Everyone take a moment. … okay, moment’s over. Thanks.

Schiraldi: Interested in Dom Smith vs Jake Bauers as prospects. Seems like would pick Smith first; is his power simply more likely to come?
Klaw: Yes, and a much better hitter and defender.

Chris: I know he hasn’t pitched this year. Thoughts on ian clarkin when healthy?
Klaw: I liked him quite a bit but at this point anything I say on him seems like empty speculation.

Jim, Rockville: Keith, you suggest AJ Cole to the Nats’ rotation in 2016. Earlier (the off-season? 2014?) you opined that Cole may be better in the ‘pen, since his stuff may not be good enough as a starter. What changed your view? Thanks!
Klaw: I think I said he should break in as a reliever, for a couple of reasons, not least of which is the wobbly command he showed in that one start this spring where Matt Williams decided to burn him at the stake by having him issue an IBB while he was already having trouble throwing strikes.

ar: Why are people so bullish on McPhail? Because he seems to be a good manager? He doesn’t strike me as a particularly progressive thinker. He may be open to new ideas, but are his sabermetric chops really that impressive?
Klaw: Are his “sabermetric chops” the ones that matter? If he surrounds himself with smart people, isn’t that the key?

Frank: What did you make of Harper backing Matt Williams? Does it have any impact of Williams future in DC?
Klaw: A smart kid saying the right things when he knows the manager is dead man walking. What would Harper have to gain from burying the guy?

Mike: I appreciate you doing this, but FYI, the reverse scroll is hard to follow.
Klaw: The transcript I post after the fact (thanks to reader Patrick for the Python script) clears that up. I can’t fix the software I use, but we’ve worked to make the transcripts more user-friendly.

Jon: Who would be the closest comp you can think of for JP Crawford?
Klaw: Oddly enough, he reminds me a lot of Jimmy Rollins, but with more polish at the plate than Rollins had at the same age.

Craig: Should the Twins start Buxton in AAA next year to work on his bat or his the defense simply too good to not have up in Minnesota?
Klaw: I would. Don’t rush the guy if he’s not ready. It nearly derailed Aaron Hicks.

Matt burks: Keith, this may be a stupid question but, do you like dumping on people? I follow you on Twitter and I have to say when you sh*t on people it is hilarious
Klaw: I only dish out the snark when it’s harmless (e.g., impersonal … I avoid personal insults or foul language) and I think it will entertain the bulk of the audience. I’ve had a lot of scouts and MLB execs tell me that’s their favorite part of my Twitter output. If I find I’m getting mean or vicious, though, it’ll be time to stop.

Scott: have you had a chance to see jairo beras at all? do you think he will ever be worth the controversy?
Klaw: Yes, probably worth it, not Mazara/Brinson level good.

Rick: Can Austin Riley stick at 3B?
Klaw: Sounds like it.

NMN: Please make more fun of Cespedes for MVP people. Harper’s season could be unmatched by non-cheaters in the last 50 years.
Klaw: This is driven by media members looking for attention and people who dislike Harper because he plays the game too much the right way. Both groups are worthy of derision.

Chris, Larchmont: Given Mets hold on, do you think they should just keep Harvey off postseason roster. Given the Inning Limit distractions and fact he’ll only pitch 5 innings per outing, why not just ride Matz, Thor, deGrom (who’s getting tired)? Is Harvey more harm than good at this point?
Klaw: That’s a good question without an easy answer. If deGrom is tired, isn’t he at higher risk of injury too? Should he be given the NLDS off in favor of Harvey, and then perhaps you switch them if you get to the LCS?

E.H. Zwick: Are you coming to Toronto for any games down the stretch and if so what restaurants are going to hit? Lots of change since you lived here.
Klaw: No, I don’t travel to playoff games or the like – I’ll be in Bristol next week and a bit of the week after, then I will write up my top 50 free agent rankings before heading out to the AFL in mid-October.

Stephen: What is your favorite Iron Maiden song? For me, I break it down into categories of live and recorded, and it’s Fear of the Dark (live) and The Wicker Man (recorded).
Klaw: Ever? The Number of the Beast, Wasted Years, The Trooper (mostly for that intro riff … the lyrics are not their best). I like the hits.

mi: Travis Snider just homered… What kind of player did you see him becoming as a prospect?
Klaw: Thought he’d be a star, that he’d hit and hit for power and play good corner OF defense. He never could figure out where to get his hands to cover both the inner third and the outside corner.

Frank: Is Mac Williamson a bench guy or does he have potential to be an everyday player?
Klaw: Everyday potential – power, speed, glove, arm, might not hit that much … but the Giants do have some positive history on that front.

Mike: Keith, I know Blake Snell is a top prospect but why is it never mentioned that he only pitches 5 innings and doesn’t ever turn the lineup over a 3rd time I would think this would be a bigger deal
Klaw: Why would it? If that’s a new trend in MLB anyway, and it helps keep pitchers healthy (healthier), I don’t see the problem.

Chris, Larchmont: Marcos Molina start in AA next year?
Klaw: If his elbow hasn’t blown, maybe, but I think that arm slot and delivery are destined for the pen if they don’t give him further trouble.

Andrew: Why does Evan Gattis continue to start for the Astros? At what point do the Astros look for other options (Tucker)?
Klaw: Between Tyler White and AJ Reed, Houston has two good reasons to non-tender Gattis this winter.

Steve: Gary sanchez getting traded? Package of refsnyder and sanchez get anything good?
Klaw: I don’t think that gets you a big impact guy in return. Refsnyder is a great kid and a good story but none of that helps his defense at second.

Scott: Thoughts on Mattingly removing Wood at 78 pitches thru 8?
Klaw: I thought it was great.

Frank: I know it will not impact your vote but do you believe voters for ROY take into consideration or are influenced by pre-season hype or expectations on the players under consideration for the award?
Klaw: Probably, but maybe in both ways – some voters seem to vote against hype.

JR: How worried should KC be about Cueto? Is this SSS that he will work out, or is something else causing his recent troubles? And how much $$, if any, is this costing him?
Klaw: I worry about his health. His free agency will be fascinating – you have to want an MRI before you sign him, right?

Jim, Rockville: Keith, just for historical context, Coghlan also blew up Iwakuma’s knee back in 2009. In that instance everyone said the slide was legit, but it does perhaps show a pattern?
Klaw: Is that true?

Scott: Will Friedman/Zaidi really allow Rollins over Seager to start in playoffs? (I hope not)
Klaw: I want to say I doubt it, but I wonder if this is a situation where they are trying to get Mattingly and perhaps Rollins himself on board.

Charles: Favorite HS position player not named Rutherford in the 2016 draft?
Klaw: Kiriloff, Rizzo, McIlwain, Tuck … but I really liked Bo Bichette at the Metropolitan Classic. He’s way better than his brother – more athletic, better approach, doesn’t have that back-side collapse at the plate.

Steve: Is it possible for a guy with average arm strength to refine his mechanics enough to generate the velocity necessary to succeed on a high level?
Klaw: Sometimes, but it’s not universal. Changing mechanics in general is not simple; we hear about the successes but never the failures.

steve: Have you read Emily St. John Mandel’s Station Eleven? Beautiful book.
Klaw: It’s on my to-buy list. Currently finishing Alison Lurie’s Foreign Affairs, then going to read Hardy’s Far from the Madding Crowd. I also have All the Light We Cannot See coming up in the queue.

Rob: What do you think of Dilmot so far? Worth the price? Would recommend?
Klaw: A little pricey but easy to use and very good customer service so far.

Michael: Will you laugh or cry if Cespedes wins the NL MVP?
Klaw: Laugh. Always laugh – this stuff is hilarious. I get mad over licensed doctors in California helping people avoid vaccinations.

Chris: Where does the Dodgers farm system rank? Still top heavy and lacking in depth?
Klaw: Yes, although the big july 2nd haul helps, or will help in a year or so when we see if any of those kids is any good.

Joe: Wife and I started playing Slendor together. Love it. What game should we add next, knowing that we liked Splendor?
Klaw: How about Samurai? New edition comes out later this month, very simple rules, works for 2 players as well as 3-4. I’ll have a review on Paste next week.

Brad: When’s your next periscope? Thanks!
Klaw: So the plan is one Periscope a week and one Klawchat a week, always on different days. Usually I’ll do the Klawchats Thursdays, but when traveling I’ll move them around and will always let you guys know on Twitter and Facebook.

sammy: are both corey ray and jason groome top 5 picks next june? thx
Klaw: Potentially, yes. No locks for me right now.

Jon: I know you thought highly of Scott Kingery during the draft process, any thoughts on his performance so far and when he could see the majors?
Klaw: Small sample, but I’m glad they pushed him to the Sally League right away. He walked about twice as much there as he did in the spring, which is a good sign. If he stays at second base he could be a year or so away.

Josh: Keith, Is Dbacks SS Isan Diaz a legit prospect? Great numbers in short season at 19, but not sure if a guy or GUY
Klaw: He’s definitely a prospect.

Brad: If severino is a reliever, can he be Betances good?
Klaw: Betances’s stuff when starting was not as good as Severino’s stuff is right now.

Brad: Prospects you say you don’t think Weill be good, do you end up rooting against them or the hope they prove you wrong?
Klaw: Oh God, I never, ever root against a prospect. Those are human beings chasing their lifelong dreams.

Joe: How close was Orlando Arcia to making your prospect of the year list?
Klaw: There wasn’t any “close.” I didn’t do a long ranking or anything.

Pythagoreas: I’ve seen it suggested that run differential is a trailing indicator — that teams whose W/L records don’t match their run differential will, going forward, see their W/L performance stay the same and their run differential correct to match that, rather than the other way around. Do you think there’s any validity in that?
Klaw: That hurt my head just to read it. I see no validity at all to that.

Anonymous: Why don’t we see many prospect for prospect trades in baseball?
Klaw: Now I would make this illegal.

Bob: Does it seem that this chat software allows you to answer questions more quickly?
Klaw: I think the software itself is much more responsive.

Jon: Do you think McIlwain gives up football and goes baseball full time?
Klaw: I hope so. He’d be very foolish to turn down a potential $2 million bonus now to go get the crap beaten out of him in SEC football.

Scott: On taking out Wood: You like it because t was good for Wood? Mattingly said would’ve left him with 4-0 lead. Right move, wrong motives?
Klaw: Hah, yes, right move, wrong motives. I liked it because it was good for Wood and good for the team’s chances to win anyway.

Michael: Keith, I know you said this chat service runs at a cost to you, but thanks for doing it. Usually it seems like lip service a bit when a chatter says “they enjoy doing it” because they of course aren’t going to say they hate it, but you paying essentially to chat with us is awesome. Respect brah
Klaw: Word.

Andy: Why don’t all teams have an MRI machine and check players all the time? Every pitcher gets an MRI every two weeks. It won’t prevent traumatic injuries, but could help with wear and tear.
Klaw: They’re expensive, not simple tests, may have some long-term health concerns, and in some cases (where a dye is injected) put the player on the shelf for a few days.

Robert: Has everyone forgotten about Tyler Skaggs? Hoping to see him, Newcomb, and Richards in the same rotation.
Klaw: Their rotation in 2016 won’t be the problem. They have a lot offensive holes to patch and probably need to shore up the bullpen.

Bob:Is your ranking of prospects based on future ceiling, how close they are to the major leagues, or a combination?
Klaw: Much more the former than the latter – otherwise I’d never have an Anderson Espinoza type on the list, and I feel like you guys need to know about him. That’s all for this week – thank you all so much, as always, for joining me here and for reading. I hope to see a few of you in Bowie tonight and I will hold another Klawchat next week, probably on Wednesday. Thanks again.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ September 15, 2015
→ By keith

The Book of Souls.

My latest piece for Insiders names my 2015 Prospect of the Year, along with a bunch of other “nominees” and the 2015 draftees with the best pro debuts.

Until a couple of weeks ago, I assumed Iron Maiden was finished as a band after 2010’s forgettable The Final Frontier, as the band members are mostly in their late 50s and have started to encounter health problems, most notably lead singer Bruce Dickinson’s bout with a cancerous tumor on his tongue earlier this year. The mere existence of their new album, The Book Of Souls, was thus a surprise, as was its length – a 90-minute double album in an era where the entire idea of an album is losing its relevance – but there was no greater shock than the fact that the album, while uneven, is pretty damn good overall.

Most of the eleven songs on the record are prog-rock in length, three clocking in beyond the ten-minute mark, but without most of the masturbatory prog-rock noodling that has forever sworn me off the likes of King Crimson or Marillion; only one track comes in under five minutes and it is by far the worst song on the album. Instead of overly complex solos or time-signature shifts, Maiden – primarily bassist and main songwriter Steve Harris – give us driving guitar riffs highly reminiscent of their peak era from The Number of the Beast through Seventh Son of a Seventh Son, as well as Harris’ signature galloping bass lines. Maiden’s best material combined a strong melodic sense with the heavy major-key riffing that inspired a generation of metal bands, many of whom were overwhelmed by or assimilated into the hair-metal scourge of the late 1980s. (Queensrÿche remains, for me, the strongest of the post-Maiden acts, although they too went off the rails with Empire after Operation: Mindcrime earned far more critical acclaim than commercial success.

Because Harris didn’t write all the material on Book of Souls, there are clear stylistic differences across the various tracks, and the lead single, “Speed of Light,” written by Dickinson and Adrian Smith, is tighter and shorter than Harris’ writings. It’s worthy of comparison to the band’s best singles from the 1980s (“Wasted Years,” “The Number of the Beast,” and “Run to the Hills”), although it’s one of the songs that overtaxes Dickinson’s voice to a distressing degree. Harris keeps things to about six and a half minutes on “The Great Unknown,” providing tremendous contrast with an extended, dark acoustic outro that seems inspired by Black Sabbath and that leads perfectly into the similarly tenebrous intro to the thirteen-minute epic “The Red and the Black,” which quickly gives way to a riff very similar to the main line from “Hallowed Be Thy Name.” (I was a little disappointed that the song isn’t in any way connected to the novel of that name by Stendhal.) That song has a lengthy guitar solo that never devolves into mindless shredding, repeating an outstanding if short melodic lead guitar line, leading into a second instrumental section with two lead guitars playing parallel lines, with its only misstep in the final minute with a too-abrupt shift to the outro. “When the River Runs Deep” returns to somewhat radio-friendly length, an unabashed throwback to the period of Maiden that, in hindsight, appears to have directly influenced the rise of early thrash metal.

The album’s two great weaknesses are Dickinson’s voice, which can no longer hit the higher registers that marked him as one of the great vocalists of early metal, and the lack of ideas at the back of the last quarter or so of the release. The lyrics of “Tears of a Clown,” a tribute to Robin Williams, are embarrassingly mawkish, riddled with platitudes like “Maybe it’s all just for the best/Lay his weary head to rest.” The music sounds as if Harris had been trying to write something that might appear on the singles charts, which Maiden hasn’t pulled off since the bizarre trip to #1 in the UK of Dickinson’s “Bring Your Daughter … to the Slaughter,” an absolute low point in the band’s history.

The 18-minute closer, “Empire of the Clouds,” marks the longest track in Maiden’s history, surpassing “Rime of the Ancient Mariner” from Powerslave, which quoted pieces of Coleridge’s epic poem and has become one of their most enduring hits. The comparisons are inevitable, and inevitably unfavorable, especially as it’s nearly impossible to record a rock song of nearly twenty minutes that doesn’t fall short at multiple points, and “Empire” never seems to get going in the first place; Dickinson’s operatic aspirations don’t translate at all well to the format, and the first truly memorable piece of music in the track is the two-measure guitar riff that pops up after seven-plus minutes have elapsed, by which point I assume most listeners would have abandoned ship.

That criticism may be specious in a double album that runs an hour and a half and provides plenty of music above replacement, including numerous tracks that do work as singles, including “Speed of Light,” “Death or Glory,” “When the River Runs Deep,” and lengthy opener “If Eternity Should Fail,” penned by Smith and Dickinson but more true to the spirit of Harris’ songwriting than even some of his own tracks. When “Shadows of the Valley” opens up with a lick that has to be a nod to the monumental line that starts “Wasted Years,” it’s more than enough of a statement that Harris, Smith, and Dickinson remain capable of producing songs that are worlds ahead of the artists that have long tried to emulate them.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2015 in music, british music, metal, Music, progressive metal

→ September 14, 2015
→ By keith

A Scanner Darkly.

I love the works of Philip K. Dick, prolific author of science fiction novels and short stories that often dwelt in paranoia and paradoxes, unrespected during his lifetime but finding a cult following since his death in 1982, with an increasing interest lately from Hollywood. The upcoming Amazon original series The Man in the High Castle (based on his best novel) and the Fox series Minority Report (based on a short story) are both derived from his works, as were the films Blade Runner, Total Recall, and The Adjustment Bureau. So you know PKD’s writing even if you haven’t ready any.

A Scanner Darkly is one of his least speculative novels, hewing very closely to reality other than its depiction of a war on drugs that has gone even further than it ultimately did, using some futuristic technologies (and yet still relying on payphones) and putting its protagonist narc, Fred, undercover with suspected drug dealers where he ends up a user himself. The drug in question, Substance D, is a highly addictive, synthetic, psychoactive drug that has become hugely popular while stymieing attempts by the feds to discover its manufacturer. Fred, posing as the low-level dealer Bob Arctor, tries to learn the source via another low-level dealer Donna, for whom he also has unrequited feelings. His adoption of these dual roles is exacerbated by his use of Substance D, which can cause the hemispheres of the brain to stop working together and start competing with each other, so that he’s no longer aware of what his other persona has done. When this occurs, the story shifts into high gear, as Fred/Bob’s real role in this charade becomes apparent and he has a chance to carve some meaning out of his experience in addiction.

Dick’s paranoia is still present in A Scanner Darkly, with the government using increasingly invasive methods and technologies to investigate Substance D’s distribution; the novel, written in the mid-1970s, foresaw much of what our government now does in the name of fighting terrorism. But the focus of the novel is on the effects of the drug itself, the terrible spiral into which it sends addicts, with Fred/Bob’s descent into cognitive failure taking over from what appears for the first half of the book to be a demented detective story. Dick even concludes the novel with a postscript that discusses drug addiction and laments the many friends he lost to death or disability as a result of their use of drugs, although he argues that drug “misuse” isn’t a disease but “a decision,” a position on to which modern medicine has at least cast some doubt.

Whereas many of Dick’s novels offer incomplete resolutions or deliberately unsatisfying endings, A Scanner Darkly ties up its story in a neat and clever fashion, but in a bait-and-switch manner that leaves that first half to two-thirds of the novel feeling like it was irrelevant. Perhaps Dick meant for the the structure of the novel to mimic the timeline of a drug addict’s (bad) experience – you’re fine for a while until you’ve gone too far, when everything goes pear-shaped – but the result is a novel that feels disjointed, and not in the good way that many PKD novels feel disjointed. We also don’t get to know any characters, least of all Fred-Bob, in any depth, although characterization was not a strength of Dick’s overall – his greatest attribute as a writer was his ability to craft unnerving settings and scenes that often struck at the heart of metaphysical matters like consciousness, perception versus reality, and privacy. A Scanner Darkly veers away from those strengths, and the result left me somewhat cold.

The novel was also adapted into a 2006 film by Richard Linklater, but I haven’t seen it.

Next up: I just finished Dorothy Sayers’ second Lord Peter Wimsey mystery, Clouds of Witness, and have begun Alison Lurie’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel Foreign Affairs.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: adaptations, american literature, drugs, dystopian, philip dick

→ September 12, 2015
→ By keith

Saturday five, 9/12/15.

My one Insider piece from this week included my own scouting notes on prospects Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Adams, Gleyber Torres, and Brad Markey.

Klawchats have returned! They’ll be here on the dish from now on, as ESPN has ended all Sportsnation chats. The first one was on Thursday.

And now, the links…

Marlins beat writer Juan Rodriguez is fighting brain cancer, and some of his friends have set up a fund to help support his family.
Every Day Should Be Saturday says pay the players, dammit, through a personal essay about what it’s like to be broke.
Hand-pulled oyster with activated artichoke, anyone? The man behind the Brooklyn Bar Menu Generator talked to the Village Voice about his creation.
The passing of neurologist and author Oliver Sacks has led to some touching tributes, including Atul Gawande’s in memoriam piece, which also mentions their shared love of the excellent dystopian short story “The Machine Stops,” available for a buck for your Kindle through that link. It’s never mentioned in discussions of E.M. Forster’s works, but I’d take that over A Passage to India any day.
BBC’s Assignment radio program looks at Paraguay’s preteen pregnancy problem, exploring why schoolgirls there are so vulnerable to abuse.
Digg interviewed the Food Lab’s Kenji Lopez-Alt ahead of the release of his first book, The Food Lab: Better Home Cooking Through Science, later this month.
I haven’t tried this recipe but I was intrigued enough to share it: Sichuan-spiced dry-brined turkey. Dry brining doesn’t require a giant bucket as a wet brine does, and the recipe calls for spatchcocking (stop laughing) the bird for more even cooking of the white and dark meats.
New York has a rare positive story on climate change, arguing that we’ve finally gotten serious about slowing it. One major reason, in the author’s opinion, is the threat of a Republican candidate winning in 2016, as that party steadfastly denies the science on climate change in embarrassing fashion.
How did lobster become so commoditized that it’s now on the McDonald’s menu? The New Yorker provides an “unnatural” history of the McLobster, looking at advances in lobster fishery that resemble other types of animal husbandry.
If you want to know why baseball is becoming whiter, there’s a simple explanation: youth sports are too damn expensive.
Celebrity chef Kerry Simon died this week at age 60 of multiple system atrophy. I first saw Simon on TV maybe fifteen years ago, on a Food Network show where he went to some off-Strip places in Vegas where he said the real chefs would go to eat. One of those places: Firefly, now one of my favorite restaurants in Las Vegas.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: climate change, food writing, links, saturday five

→ September 10, 2015
→ By keith

Klawchat 9/10/15.

The question is, what kind of chat is it? It’s Klawchat.

Jim: Thoughts on Anderson Espinoza and Francis Martes? I’ve been hearing a lot of high projections of them lately.
Klaw: I think I know more about Espinoza now – a non-Boston exec told me “he might be Pedro” than Martes, but both are pretty clearly top 100, probably top 50 prospects

Andy: How bad do you feel for Eddie Collins? Congrats you have the third best age 22 season of all time. And it’s the second best in the league in 1909, which means you’ll be forgotten by history.
Klaw: I already forgot about him.

Mark Attanasio: Who should be my top 3-5 candidates to be our new GM?
Klaw: It’s a lengthy list, but they have an ideal candidate right there in Ray Montgomery. I did see the Rockies’ Danny Montgomery (no relation) come up in a list of top candidates of color, and I’d love to see him get some more attention; sometimes the best guys don’t get the most press.

Phil: Hi Keith. If the Phillies offered, would you take the GM job? -Thanks!,
Klaw: I can’t even fathom that happening. I’ve been out of a front office for nine years! But I think it’s a very appealing job and can’t imagine any serious candidate turning it down.

Andy: Would Yoenis Cespedes for NL MVP, with a pretty good two months of work, be the worst MVP vote of all time?
Klaw: Yep. This absolutely reeks of a few writers violating the cardinal rule of journalism: Do not make the news, just cover it.

Brian: Once Jackie Bradley Jr cools off, what would you expect is normal level to be? Can he be 75 or 80% of what he’s doing now?
Klaw: I buy the average/contact more than the power.

Kelly: Severino has been great. I know that you loved his stuff, but questioned his durability. Specifically, what are your concerns? Do you think he will struggle to stay healthy for an entire season? Do you think he won’t be able to consistently pitch deep into games? Both?
Klaw: More long-term than individual games. It puts so much stress on your arm – shoulder, elbow, everything – to pitch like that, without generating velocity from your legs. Mind you I’m not rooting against the kid in the least; my job is to give opinions, and guys who pitch like he does, as does Reynaldo Lopez, are generally not able to last as starters.

Joseph K: What percentage of responsibility for the Nats 2015 debacle would you assign to the manager?
Klaw: 30%?

Joe: Any developmental reason why the Nats wouldn’t have put Giolito on their September roster? Innings limit, fatigue, etc? Seems as if all they needed was 5 good innings from him this month to make up for the disastrous Bridge to Nowhere.
Klaw: I know of no fatigue reason, and he was held back in April (as was Lopez) to give him some flexibility for this point in the calendar. I don’t get what they did at all – their gravest need was middle relief, and they had a bunch of candidates sitting right there in their own system to fill that spot!

Bob: I saw a piece recently discussing the advancement of Aaron Nola’s curveball, does this raise his ceiling at all… or just help him reach it?
Klaw: Got a great report on that from the other night, too … if that’s the swing and miss pitch he’s been lacking, then it would raise his ceiling. As a general rule, curveballs don’t have the same potential for improvement as sliders; you might improve your command of a curveball, but its shape is determined so much by your hand and wrist that it’s hard for it to get materially better.

Jon: I must admit, I wasn’t in love with trading Fulmer for 2-months of Cespedes. Still, I was excited to get a power bat in the middle of the line-up. It’s also been pleasantly surprising that a lot of things have gone right of the Mets: d’Arnaud is healthy and mashing, Wright is healthy and hitting, Johnson and Uribe proved to be good pick ups, and Clippard has been effective. This has culminated in a strong run by the Mets. So, what I’m getting at is: At what point do you say, it’s worth it to give up a talent like Fulmer for a short-term rental (even if Cespedes is re-signed, he was a rental)? Just getting to the playoffs? Does winning the World Series trump everything and make Fulmer an afterthought? One World Series victory has to be greater than 6 years of control of a mid-rotation starter. But is there a gray area? It’s a strange predicament.
Klaw: I agree with everything you said – there is a point where you say, screw it, it was worth the cost. I would have bought into this more if the Mets were at the end of a run, if this were the last gasp of a dying contender, rather than an early arrival by a team that looked (really still does look) primed for 4-5 years of strong contention. Their starting pitching depth just took a hit, and you can just ask the Nationals if you can ever have enough starting pitching.

Kyle: Lewis Brinson stayed healthy this year and impressed me when I saw him in Frisco. Can he be the 5-tool unicorn, or will he not hit for average?
Klaw: I think given enough time – he may struggle with contact at first – he’s a five-tool player. I have always liked him over Nick Williams even when the latter performed better.

Dale: What are your thoughts on Domingo Acevedo of the Yankees system?
Klaw: I’ve heard a few times that he’s been up to 99 and sitting a lot of mid-90s as a starter, but I’d like to see the delivery in person.

hyshai: Do you think Eovaldi’s new splitter could have caused the elbow issue? Is the split a pitch which is hard on the elbow (Tanaka)?
Klaw: Some pitching coaches/execs think it is. I also think it’s not a coincidence that he hit 101 or 102 the start before his elbow screamed.

Zach: A.J. Reed missed the top 50 prospect list, but where would he rank now that he’s performing at double-A?
Klaw: Top 50 for sure. Might have raised his stock more than any hitting prospect in baseball – him or Wilson Contreras with the Cubs.

Josh: Do you really think Buck Showalter should be fired for the Orioles collapse? You had a tweet that alluded to that potentially.
Klaw: That’s too strong an interpretation. I’m surprised at the lack of ire directed at him, and how much blame seems to be directed at Dan Duquette. Is it a question of personalities? Buck plays well with the media, and Duquette might be the worst of the 30 GMs at dealing with the press.

Rich: Sano’s K rate realistically puts him at about a .270ish hitter long term, yes?
Klaw: Or he drops the K rate. But yes, your point is valid.

JP: On Moncada: Said one scout: “He’s the closest thing to [Mike] Trout I’ve seen.”
Klaw: Crazy talk. But he’s a legit star-caliber prospect. Trout was just otherworldly.

Josh: Do the Giants have any arms in the minors that might make a meaningful contribution to the rotation next year? Or will they need to rebuild the rotation via trades and/or FA?
Klaw: Trades/FA. Some back-end types in the system, but nothing more, even given their #GiantsDevilMagic history.

Jay: I know you dabble in progressive metal. Thoughts on Between the Buried and Me’s new(ish) album?
Klaw: Strong. Maybe a little too prog-rockish for me, but overall very tight and clever.

Patrick: Does Didi still have room to grow or is he about maxed out potential right now? Is he currently a top 10 SS in the game?
Klaw: I think this is about his offensive potential barring a swing change – he loads deep and I think tries to hit for more power than his body will permit. He’s an elite defender though.

Jeff: The Astros have graduated a few of their top prospects, but given the draft haul and pop up guys, how many top 100 players would you estimate them having in your top 100? Bregman, Tucker, Cameron, Martes, Reed must all be top 100 guys, right?
Klaw: Not sure about Cameron; his fame outstrips his reasonable potential, as his scouting report is all 50s and 60s, not 70s and 80s. The others are. Appel (still just 23, inconsistent, but with premium stuff and control) and Feliz are also probably top 100 guys.

Nick: What is a reasonable expectation for Trayce Thompson? Is there a chance he breaks out?
Klaw: Given his plate discipline in the minors and very long swing, I think these 50 major league at bats are giving people false hope. He’s a 70 defender in center with probably 20-25 homer power but I don’t think he’ll hit enough to get to that power upside.

trike mout: Did you ever have any formal culinary training, or just all self-taught? Any resources you recommend?
Klaw: All self-taught, unless you count watching every single episode of Good Eats as formal training. I keep emailing Alton to ask for a diploma but he only sends back videos of farting sock puppets.

jesse: Should I be at all worried about Aaron Judge’s high strikeout numbers in AAA? Just seems like he always whiffs on off-speed stuff
Klaw: I think he’ll always be a high-strikeout guy, 150 or so a year. It’s a huge strike zone to ask anyone to cover. He’s also made a ton of adjustments already and I think the current problem he has, covering soft away, is something he can address with more repetitions/exposure.

Chris, Larchmont: Who is most at fault in this Matt Harvey situation? I begrudgingly have to say Sandy shouldve knows this was coming!
Klaw: Here’s who I think is least at fault: Matt Harvey. He has the most to lose from misuse or overuse and had nothing to gain by this becoming public.

James: Harper should be unanimous, But who’s second for MVP in NL? I might go Arrenado, you?
Klaw: Goldschmidt, probably.

Jonathan: Thank you Klaw! Your chats are a big reason I pay (paid?) for Insider. I really appreciate you finding another venue.
Klaw: You’re welcome. Readers have asked about helping defray the cost for the software. As far as I’m concerned, if you all keep reading them over here, it’s money well spent.

Justin: Any chance we see Baez make a big jump next year? K% seemed to be down a bit, but it’s still absurd.
Klaw: Killing the leg kick should help, but there’s a big mental adjustment to be made too and I don’t see evidence that’s happened yet.

Steve: What happened to the periscope chats? Loved that format. Much more interactive
Klaw: Nothing – I did one yesterday.

Justin: Hi Keith, what site do you host this blog on? Super cool that you’ve got the chat going on over here.
Klaw: The software is from Dilmot, and the chat appears on their site too, I believe.

JR: Glad to have klaw chat back. We need a location option though – I’ve been hoping to use “Straight Outta Klawmpton” as a location for over a month now.
Klaw: Well I can at least take the question so you can get your pun in.

Ciscoskid: I find it sad that there are writers advocating that Harper shouldnt be punished for the Nationals collapse in the MVP race, which I agree with. These are also the same writers who said the Triple Crown, and that Miggy was on a playoff team made him a more viable candidate that Trout. Just sad.
Klaw: There is always a strong anti-intellectual streak in these arguments. Writers who long held the exclusive right to tell you what players were good have lost that podium with the explosion of statistics and of independent writers who have greater insight on the question, so their way to rage against the dying of the light is to deny the facts.

Tim: If the Phil’s were going to fire RA, why not do it before he is makes a trade that is going to shape the future of the franchise for the next 5 years?
Klaw: I thought he did a really nice job with the rebuild, actually. Not enough to keep him – that whole department needs new blood, and people didn’t like working for Amaro anyway – but I don’t want that to be forgotten as we shovel dirt on the grave of his tenure.

Louis: Will Cory Seager play a pivotal role in the playoffs for the Dodgers this year? Can he stick at SS?
Klaw: This year he’s probably a bench bat or not on the playoff roster. Long term he doesn’t have the range he’ll need for shortstop.

AJ: Clayton Blackburn finished the season strong in the PCL. Is he a fringe prospect or more? What’s his projection?
Klaw: It’s fringe stuff with major-league command. I think he can be a big-league starter, probably a fourth or fifth guy, just without upside because he’s not going to miss a ton of bats. He’s better than Eric Surkamp.

Chris: Between Gselman, Ynoa and Pill among others, are any of the Mets minor league arms close to filling the void created by fulmer and meisner departures, or are those guys more back end types?
Klaw: Back end types. Nice to have, but if the Mets have a bad rash of injuries to their major-league rotation – again, not rooting for that in the least – they are going to sorely miss what they just dealt.

Louis: Whats Blake Rutherfords ceiling? is he in line for 1-1 this draft?
Klaw: I don’t think anyone is in line for 1-1 right now. He’s one of a half-dozen likely lads for that spot – Corey Ray, Alec Hansen, Jason Groome, maybe AJ Puk. Someone brought up Avery Tuck for that the other day – I think he’s too raw right now, but if he blows up in the spring don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Doug: Hello Keith! Is Max Kepler’s breakout year this season legit? When should we expect him full time with the Twins. Also heard some questions about his defense in the outfield prior to this year, has he improved in that aspect? Thanks!
Klaw: Totally legit. I think the biggest thing is that he got healthy, and now he’s moving so well he might even be able to handle center, not that the Twins need that.

Tim: How good do you think Christian arroyo is going to be and where does he play considering the one thing the Giants are not lacking is young middle infielders?
Klaw: Has to play second – can’t play short. Legit shot at a 70 hit tool, so a frequent .300+ hitter in the majors.

David: Who has the higher ceiling — JBJ or Mookie?
Klaw: Mookie.

Jay: Keith, your thoughts on Stephen Piscotty long term – can he maintain contact rate and add power as he matures?
Klaw: There’s 20-25 homer power in there, but I think Stanford worked so hard to force him and all thier other guys to go the other way that he’s still not totally comfortable dropping the bat head and pulling the ball.

Greyson: How much seasoning does Fulmer need before he’s ready to start in Detroit next season? The tigers seem to have two holes in next year’s rotation (Verlander, Norris, Sanchez, ?, ?) and it sure would be nice if he could fill one…
Klaw: I bet he makes 20+ starts for them next year, if healthy, which he wasn’t in 2014.

Cw: After yourself… What are some names MacPhail should look deeper into to fill the GM role?
Klaw: I mentioned Ray Montgomery above. Ben Cherington would be an outstanding fit. John Coppolella has to be on everyone’s list at this point given what he’s managed to do with Atlanta. Jason McLeod should too – if the Brewers decide to go outside, he should be on their short list as he’s also a minority candidate. Mike Elias is getting a lot of buzz within the industry because he’s been so successful in Houston and his staff speaks very highly of him.

Paul Furlong: Carl Edwards (Formally CJ) Is he a closer? MR? Would you put him in high stress situations now?
Klaw: He’s a reliever, not sure if that’s the seventh inning or the ninth. Just don’t think he can start.

Ananth: Is this a realistic path to contention for the M’s in the next 2 years. Management refusing to rebuild has to scare of a lot of candidates right?
Klaw: I think you can patch that major-league roster in a weak division, but whoever comes in has to fix what might be the majors’ worst farm system. Their drafts haven’t been productive, their international efforts haven’t been much better, and the handful of decent prospects who’ve come into the system have regressed.

Joe: What is the rule about eligibility for the postseason? Wouldn’t Stroman have had to been made active before September to be eligible?
Klaw: No, just had to be in the organization on 8/31.

USMNT’S BRAK SHEA: Guess this answers my question from the other day on whether Klawchat would continue now that ESPN is killing their chats (and I presume you are pleased to be free of their chat software/interface?)
Klaw: This seems less buggy, at least. But ESPN’s was free and this will be a tiny bit more work for me. Reader Patrick threw together a Python script I can use to try to turn this into a straight HTML transcript when we’re done.

Brad: I know you get tons of questions each chat, do you have any issue with submitting a question 2-3 times? Or should we take you not responding after the first ask as an indication that you don’t find it to be an interesting question/answer?
Klaw: Just don’t go too crazy. Two or three times is fine. Ten is annoying. I’m getting a ton here which is fantastic but of course i can’t get to all of them.

Mikeleelop: Any thoughts on Tulo’s struggles with the Jays? it seems as if his pitch recognition is struggling
Klaw: I think a lot of it is small sample size noise … but there’s something to a hitter leaving 81 games a year in Colorado and, whoa, hey, why is that fastball moving all of a sudden?

CJM: Read someone say that in a 2015 re-draft Verdugo might go first round, do you agree?
Klaw: No. He didn’t go first round in large part because of serious concerns about his makeup, not his ability.

Jack: Off Topic – Just wanted to thank you for the board game recommendations you gave me on Twitter last month. Very happy with Ticket to Ride and Dominion Intrigue
Klaw: Awesome, glad they worked out. We don’t play Dominion enough in my house … too much time spent trying out new games to review.

NMN: Thank you for ignoring the Cespedes for MVP complete and utter NONSENSE in this forum.
Klaw: I am allergic to bullshit.

V: Giolito was named the top RHP on Insider today. Is he the top prospect heading into 2016
Klaw: Top pitching prospect, yes.

Josh: With so many top-100 graduations, is Chance Sisco a top-100 candidate for you this off-season? Still a chance (pun intended) to stick at C?
Klaw: I get mixed reviews, but I think he’s going to be a catcher, and that makes him a top 100 guy. Kid can rake.

Jeff: Is a package headlined by Javier Guerra and Manuel Margot good enough to land a top of the rotation pitcher or does Devers need to be involved
Klaw: That should get you any starter who’s on the market. This would be my fear if I were a Red Sox fan – you have to give up some value to get the pitching you need, but strip-mining the majors’ best farm system isn’t ideal.

Alex: The NBA announced Wednesday it would seed its playoffs by record. Do you believe MLB will follow suit? (Asked as a Cubs fan both hopeful and heartbroken over the 1-game wild card.)
Klaw: No. MLB is still too hidebound by tradition. I’d rather just eliminate the three-division format and drop it to two. That won’t happen.

Jason: Is a cowbell actually a good prescription for a fever?
Klaw: I’m not into alternative medicine.

Chris: Braden Shipley struggled in the first half of the season but was much better in the second half after improved control. Do you still see him as a above-average starter down the road?
Klaw: Yes.

Ands: Clint Frazier a top 50 prospect after cutting the strikeout rate?
Klaw: No.

Gavin: any idea why the DC media refuses to criticize Matt Williams, or Rizzo for that matter? Since Rizzo has refused to criticize MW himself, do you anticipate the Lerners will force Rizzo to fire him or be fired himself?
Klaw: DC media has not impressed over the last few years. Remember when a certain writer called Harper the seventh-best player on the team? As for Rizzo, I’ll say this: Any ownership would demand answers on how the team ended up with such an incompetent manager when there were many more qualified candidates available at the time of the hire.

Kevin, Manhattan: What happened to the chats at over on the WWL?
Klaw: Dead. Deceased. Not resting, not pining for the fjords. Dead.

Josh: Is Dylan Bundy a lost cause? Or is there still hope?
Klaw: Ask me when he’s healthy again. I really don’t know. I’ve heard he and Hunter Harvey are throwing again and will pitch in instructs.

JD: First Periscope, now a meadowparty chat. How long before we’re chatting with you on Twitch while you play Carcassonne?
Klaw: I have a hard time understanding the appeal of Twitch. I like games, including some video games, but to watch someone else play them?

Josh: How do you like Django Django’s second album?
Klaw: Good, not great. Probably top 20 or so for the year, but I wish there were more standout tracks besides “Shake and Tremble” and “4000 Years.”

Brad: I know its a stretch to ask since you haven’t seen either at the position, but do you think its possible Castro or Baez could play average CF next year?
Klaw: Neither.

Connor: Is Alex Bregman beating expectations by a little bit or is he really just this advanced? In high-A already and doing bad (given it’s a hitters park) & striking out under 10% of the time.
Klaw: He’s really advanced, and incredibly bright, and as hard a worker as you’ll come across.

Brian: Do you know of any other team that has a position like what the Red Sox just created for Brian Bannister?
Klaw: No, but I think this is a rapidly spreading trend. Good front offices are just grabbing all the smart people they can and figuring out roles for them later – like the Cubs adding Jared Porter but keeping Joe Bohringer. I think this can also help some execs maintain some work/life balance in an industry that typically has been murder on families.

Tim: Thoughts on Braves draft class? Austin Riley?
Klaw: Got such middling reports before the draft and such good ones afterwards. Seems like a great call by their staff – kid can hit, good athlete, more advanced than most prep bats from Mississippi.

Matt: What city would you pick to host top chef that has not yet done so?
Klaw: Nashville. Or Philly, but that’s just me being selfish.

Wes: Does Blake Snell deserve a spot in the Rays’ 2016 rotation after tearing up three different levels this season?
Klaw: Yes, but they’ll hold him back till July for money reasons.

Patrick: Got a Super Bowl prediction?
Klaw: Sure, here you go: I predict I won’t care.

Robert: Do you see Newcomb developing into a #2? Seems like the control is the only obstacle. Raw stuff and delivery is all there
Klaw: Yes to all three.

Nick: I have a weekly game night with some friends. Historically is has been Catan night, but based on some of you reccommendations I have been able to introduce Carcassone, Splendor and the current favorite, Ticket to Ride, into the mix. Any suggestions for another good game for 4 people?
Klaw: Dominion, 7 Wonders, Samurai, Castles of Burgundy. Lot of great options these days.

Kelly: Should Judge and Bird both start the season with the Yankees next year? If the Yankees keep one (or both) down in favor of Beltran, A-Rod, and Teixeira, will it hurt their development?
Klaw: Given how Judge finished in AAA, planning to return him there in the spring isn’t a bad idea. I’d rather see him close up that hole on the outer edge there before coming to the big leagues.

Bob: In your opinion who will have a better career, JP Crawford or Corey Seager
Klaw: Seager over Crawford primarily due to offense, but I think both guys are longtime stars.

Chris: Favorite Saturday Night Live alum (if you watch/watched the show)?
Klaw: Phil Hartman. There’s actually no other correct answer to this.

Gregg: Any thoughts on recent Red Sox front office changes. Is Wren a given or does Hazen have a shot.
Klaw: Wren would be the worst imaginable choice; he was awful in Atlanta, ran off a lot of good people, and alienated a number of other execs around the league. The Red Sox need to hire someone who works well with people and who will retain the strong front office staff they already have.

Marc: Hey Keith, could you talk a little about AJ Pollock? I remember him being thought of as a 4th OFer and now he’s a star. What changed?
Klaw: Defense improved substantially, which is sustainable, and he’s suddenly become a .340 BABIP guy, which may not be.

Brian Milford, CT: Keith, Peter Gammons just made a great point about this ridiculous MVP discussion. If Harper wasn’t have the season he is, Cespedes would still be in Detroit.
Klaw: I like that. On the other hand, given what has happened since 7/31, would the Mets be any worse off if, say, they hadn’t traded for Clippard, Uribe, and Johnson? Or if they’d made no moves at all? They’re so far ahead of the Nats now that even deleting those four players’ contributions wouldn’t (on paper) push them back to second place.

Joe: Do you think Alderson took into consideration that Fullmer already had elbow issues when dealing him? And in a more general sense, do you think it would be smart for GM’s to trade young pitchers who have had minor arm issues since that would seem to indicate something bigger could be coming down the line?
Klaw: Here’s the thing: You have to operate as if they’re all going to get hurt, which gives you incentive to trade them all, but if you do that, then you have no pitching, so you have to keep a bunch of them, even though you think they’ll probably get hurt.

Cubbie: Is Addison Russell a super hero? Some of his plays on defense and the sweet beauty of his wrists turning on a ball make me think so…
Klaw: I’ve had him stuffed in my rankings since he was drafted – and some of you might remember how I got ripped for ranking him so high that first year – but I’ve always believed his hands were special, that he’d be both a plus fielder and a plus hitter because of them.

RJ: You don’t seem as high on Nick Williams as others. Do you still feel that way even after his great season, and crazy bat speed?
Klaw: I don’t know or care what “others” say about a player. I’m only concerned with my own evaluation of him. His plate discipline is poor, as are his instincts. He’s got great hand-eye coordination (but not “crazy” bat speed – he’s not Baez or Frazier) and power, and it looks like that will play even if he lacks the less tangible tools.

GT: Throwback Thursday to the guy who said you should have to disclose that you’re not a doctor when talking about anxiety
Klaw: good Lord I forgot about that one

Lyle: Is there any reason to still think of Luiz Gohara as a legitimate prospect other than his age?
Klaw: Age and stuff, but some performance would be nice.

chad: Can Jake Arrieta sustain this amount of success through the next few years?
Klaw: Yes. Why isn’t his trouble in Baltimore ever connected to the coaching staff? The Cubs made minor adjustments – gave him a cutter, slowed his tempo – and made him an ace.

Linus Chan: What would be your prediction on how the use of relievers will develop- are we heading even more to hyperspecialization, or will there be some pushback (whether for pace of play reasons or others)
Klaw: If I were a GM, I’d be trying to change that whole paradigm to stop using relievers so often on back-to-back or, worse, three consecutive days. It can’t help their arms.

Michael: You don’t particularly seem to follow or like any other sports. What is it about baseball that you enjoy so much? What do the other sports (basketball, football, hockey, soccer, etc.) lack?
Klaw: So much of it comes down to my parents. My dad didn’t like basketball at all, so that was out. My mom only liked baseball, but she and her mother (who lived near us and just passed away last year at 100) were rabid Yankee fans. So it was always baseball in our house, and I was obsessed from a young age with everything about it – watching it, playing in the yard, collecting cards, reading stats, keeping track of trades and signings. No other sport had all of that going for it.

Brandon Warne: What is this amazing software, and were you able to use it for free? (or at least a reasonable price?)
Klaw: It’s $50/month.

@Jaypers413: Mayo answered your hot dog question in his Inbox today. Just figured you’d want to know.
Klaw: Fantastic. He said he might and I told him to go right ahead.

Jay: Bregman serviceable at 3B for the Astros? Or will he end up as trade bait?
Klaw: Arm doesn’t look like it’ll play at third.

Todd Boss: Stephen Strasburg has 13 Ks through 7 innings and is on 103 pitches. Is this the right time to bring in a guy who walked 3 straight batters the previous night and who gave up the back-breaking bases-clearing double to the same batter (Yoenis Cespedes) that he was set to face. Matt Williams: 2014 Manager of the Year!
Klaw: The part I hated was bringing back Storen, who looked like an absolute mess the night before. Physical, mental, whatever – is THAT the well you want to drink from?

Brian Milford, CT: Excited for Top Chef to return? Will you writing recaps?
Klaw: Yes and hell yes.

Aaron: Are you concerned at all about the lack of power from Dominic Smith this year?
Klaw: No – led FSL in doubles and that’s a terrible park and league for power. Now if he hits 5 HR in AA in 2016 I’ll be worried and kind of annoyed.

Fresh: Victor Robles – how high does he go on the Nats prospect list for you next year?
Klaw: He’s a stud. Margot with power.

AJ: Mac Williamson had somewhat of a disappointing season. Was that due to coming off TJ surgery? Or was he overmatched in AAA? Do you see him being a solid big leaguer?
Klaw: I don’t think it was a bad season after he missed a whole year; he had a .368 OBP across AA and AAA, after never playing above high-A before he got hurt.

Chad: Football has concussion issues. What issue do you see baseball long term having to fix that they’ve completely ignored that could have long term effects on the game?
Klaw: The increasing cost to play youth baseball in the US. It is a major cause of the whitening of the sport.

Danny: What do you think happens to Jagielo?
Klaw: I don’t see where he fits, because he’s not a 3b.

dcell: Is it possible to have the chat go from top to bottom to it’s easier to scroll through? Sometimes there will be things referenced from earlier in the chat and it’s hard catching up when going in reverse and new questions push things down. Saw that you mentioned an HTML possibility post-chat though, good idea. Thanks!
Klaw: Yes, and I think we’ll get that resolved in the transcripts.

Matt: You had Benitendi fairly low in your draft rankings. Has anything changed your mind since then, even with an extremely small sample?
Klaw: Yes, a lot, including his performance in pro ball, which gave us some wood bat data we didn’t have before, and a few scouts saying to me post-draft that was their “guy” going into the draft.

TedT: Are your ESPN chats done forever? One of the reasons to pay to be an “Insider” is gone
Klaw: They are gone forever, but the chats were free, weren’t they?

AJ: Fellow pizza lover and connoisseur. What is your go-to pizza order?
Klaw: If I am at a place for the first time, I like to get a margherita just to taste the basics – the crust, the sauce, the cheese. But I am a sucker for homemade sausage or for arugula and some kind of cured pork.

BC: Is Gregory Polanco still gonna be a star?
Klaw: Yes, absolutely.

Lyle: Does Drew Jackson have a major league future? Or is he just an org guy/utility man?
Klaw: I think he’s an org guy. Don’t believe he’ll hit.

Matt: Do you see Kris Bryant lowering his K rate going forward or is he going to settle in as a Chris Davis type? Valuable but top 5 in strikeouts every year
Klaw: His plate discipline is excellent – I think he’ll bring the K rate down.

Adam: ESPN chats were free.
Klaw: I thought so. These chats will be free too … but this one is over. I can’t thank all of you enough for your patience the last few weeks and for following me over here to keep the chats rolling. I do lots of fun non-baseball writing here too, so if any of you are new to this site, please poke around. There’s probably something here you’ll like. I’ll get back to doing this weekly now, so look for another Klawchat next Thursday. Thanks!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ September 9, 2015
→ By keith

A Bell for Adano.

John Hersey is probably best remembered today, to the extent that he’s remembered at all, for “Hiroshima,” his mammoth piece for the New Yorker that took up all of the periodical’s August 31st, 1946 issue, and was later republished as a standalone book. A year before that remarkable piece of non-fiction, first-person journalism, however, Hersey won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction for his satirical war novel A Bell for Adano, a spiritual precursor to Catch-22, one that allows the absurdity of military life and bureaucracy to satirize itself while also humanizing the American occupation of Italy through one character, Major Joppolo, who becomes the wartime mayor of the Italian town of Adano.

Adano has lost much in the war; the people are starving and thirsty, and the ousted Fascist mayor was a corrupt coward. But no loss seems to matter as much as the loss of the town’s 700-year-old bell, recently taken by Mussolini’s government and melted down to make more munitions. As Major Joppolo attempts to restore order to Adano, reestablishing basic services and some semblance of the rule of law, he also makes it his main mission to find the town a new bell, one that has some historical significance and will have the “right tone.” Of course, other military officials think he’s crazy, and the General overseeing that part of the occupation, based on George S. Patton, is a single-minded tyrant. The scene in Patton where the titular character shoots a local merchant’s donkey appears here, and, like much of the book, is based on an actual incident; the shooting and Major Joppolo’s response to it sets up an obvious if poetic conclusion to the story that also creates some comedic pressure for the Major to find that bell before his time in Adano runs out.

While Joseph Heller’s book spares nothing and no one in its farcical look at the pointlessness of war and the human machines we build up to wage it, Hersey grounds his story in reality and lets the book’s rich humor come from very believable personal interactions, from the concupiscent Captain Purvis’s unending attempts to seduce Italian woman with whom he can’t communicate, to naval Lieutenant Livingston, whose snobbish first impressions of Major Joppolo give way when the latter employs a little bit of flattery. The return of Mayor Nasta and his subsequent arrest are almost slapstick comic moments. The memo that describes Joppolo’s countermanding of General Marvin’s order stopping all carts from entering Adano takes the most circuitous route imaginable to the latter’s desk as various underlings try to “lose” it before it does any harm. Some parts of the book were just laugh-out-loud funny, and most of it was smile-inducing, other than the occasional intervention of the details of the war, or the strongly sentimental notions connecting Joppolo and the citizens of Adano.

So why hasn’t A Bell for Adano endured as a work of American literature, especially war literature, when it’s based on true stories from the occupation (Major Joppolo himself was modeled on an actual American officer), is funny, and would be easily accessible to high school readers? I’ve long been appalled at how little of the American canon we present to American students; many great authors are omitted from even honors or AP reading lists even though books like Adano could be read and covered inside of a week. Perhaps it’s just been overshadowed by later works – it may have inspired Heller’s novel, but Heller’s book was funnier, more vicious, and covered far more ground – but it’s worth pushing it back on to the modern bookshelf.

Next up: Philip K. Dick’s A Scanner Darkly.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, comic novels, highly recommended, pulitzer prize, war novels, world war ii

→ September 8, 2015
→ By keith

Red Mars.

I have a scouting blog up with notes from three games I saw last week, covering Jeff Hoffman, Gleyber Torres, Matt Strahm, Spencer Adams, and Brad Markey.

Kim Stanley Robinson’s Mars Trilogy won a Nebula Award for the first book (Red Mars), Hugo Awards for the second (Green Mars) and third (Blue Mars), and Locus Awards for the second and third, as well as a passel of other awards and nominations. I just finished Red Mars, the dense 570-page opener, on Friday, and I can’t fathom why it won the Nebula or has spawned a cult following that appears to be leading toward a scripted series on Spike TV.

The Mars trilogy covers the first human attempt to colonize Mars, with a mission leaving Earth in 2026 (heh) with 100 colonizers chosen largely for their scientific and engineering skills. The goal is merely to establish a permanent settlement that may open the door for further research and potential economic activity like heavy-metal mining, but as conditions on Earth deteriorate due to war, pollution, and overpopulation, emigration to Mars becomes a reality and accelerates beyond the point that the red planet can handle it – especially since Mars is freezing and its thin atmosphere comprises mostly carbon dioxide. This in turn exacerbates the initial philosophical divide among the “first hundred” of whether humans should attempt to terraform Mars and make it suitable for long-term human settlement, or if humans have any responsibility to maintain the planet’s environment and, if present, any ecosystem that might exist at a microscopic level.

Red Mars is hard science fiction, very heavy on the technical aspects of its subject, with painstaking attempts to keep it as scientifically accurate as it can be. That means the book is about as dry as the Martian equator, as Robinson devotes paragraphs and even pages to details that contribute nothing to the plot and only serve to show that the author has indeed done his research. I can understand the desire to convince the reader that something like the space elevator transportation system is feasible, for example, but the point of including it in a work of fiction should be to show its effect on the characters within the story, not merely to say, “hey, cool, a space elevator!”

Robinson seems so caught up in demonstrating the technologies required for the mission and his mastery of their specifics that he spends very little time developing the book’s central characters, roughly a dozen of the first hundred who play significant roles in the novel’s multistranded story arc. Two of the most significant ones are dead before the book even ends, as are a few characters of less importance, and while many dramatic works benefit from the uncertainty around characters’ fates, Red Mars isn’t one of them. There’s no sense of impending jeopardy to raise tensions, and when the novel ends with a lengthy journey where several of the first hundred escape from Terran forces, I never doubted that they’d succeed in reaching their destination. And, most damning of all, I didn’t really care if they didn’t, so long as Robinson didn’t bore me to death first with details of how their little rovers worked or more about that bizarre flood that, even with all his descriptive text, I still could not for the life of me manage to picture in my head.

So my question to those of you who’ve braved this series is whether it’s worth it to continue, as I’ve been reading past Hugo winners, which would include both of the next two books in the series. My instinct is no, that the issue was Robinson’s writing style, and that seems unlikely to improve from book to book, at least not enough for me to plod through another 1200 pages.

Next up: I just finished A Bell for Adano, a wonderful satirical war novel by John Hersey (author of the famed New Yorker piece Hiroshima) and have begun Philip K. Dick’s A Scanner Darkly.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, disappointments, hard science fiction, hugo award, nebula award, science fiction

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