keith — Page 108

→ August 18, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 8/18/18.

My biggest piece this week was my annual Gen Con wrap-up for Paste, covering the 20 best games I got to play, demo, or just watch at the convention, and discussing pretty much everything else I saw too.

For Insiders, I wrote up what Shane Baz’s inclusion means for the Chris Archer trade, with scouting notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and some pitching prospects. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I sent out the latest edition of my free email newsletter on Friday. Feel free to sign up for more of my ramblings, plus links to all of my content.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: The New York Times profiles the privacy activists who fought Google, Facebook, & other tech giants over how they used customers’ data.
This research paper from May finds that hospitals’ leverage results in large price swings (PDF) even across “undifferentiated” services between different facilities, one possible contributor to the rising cost of health care that any reform proposal will need to address. Directing patients to lower-cost providers for such basic services could save patients and insurers a significant amount of money.
Food writer Michael Twitty visits his ancestral homeland of Ghana for the first time, in the company of four African-American chefs, to eat traditional Ghanaian food and reconnect with his roots.
Dan Gillmoor, director of the Knight Center at Arizona State’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism, calls on all journalists to work together to defend the freedom of the press and expose the degradation of key cultural norms that underpin our society, including voting rights, free speech, and opposition to corruption.
Dr. David Glosser, the uncle of White House policy adviser and xenophobic reactionary Stephen Miller, argues that Miller’s anti-immigration stance is ‘hypocritical’ because Miller wouldn’t be in the U.S. were it not for the same immigration laws Miller is trying to roll back. That’s not a perfect argument – I don’t think it makes Miller a hypocrite for arguing for tighter borders, but it makes his beliefs about the borders inconsistent with his own history.
The Philadelphia Citizen and its partners launched a series of related pieces on the high cost of being ‘broke’ in Philadelphia. For example, WHYY looks at how the cost and limitations of public transit reduce job options for poor Philadelphians.
At the Athletic, Melissa Lockard wrote about her husband’s passing this month at age 41 of a rare cancer. The piece is free for all readers, and is every bit as gutting as you’d expect.
This Royals Review post’s title makes it sound like a mere hit job on the team, but “It is possible that the Royals do not understand how numbers work” makes a smart, broader point that the team’s fealty towards Alcides Escobar is irrational based strictly on the math, without involving emotions at all.
Our jury system is not well built to adjudicate questions of science, a fact demonstrated yet again when a jury decided in favor of a man who claimed Monsanto’s Roundup gave him cancer. The main problem here is that you can pretty much never say what caused someone’s cancer; we can make educated guesses, of course, but cancer is aberrant cell division, and can happen without any apparent external cause.
Then the Environmental Working Group (EWG) opportunistically put out a press release claiming that they found excessive quantities of glyphosate (Roundup) in breakfast cereals, without putting their claims through peer review or explaining why they used a standard of 1/10,000th that of the EPA tolerance for glyphosate. Slate explained why the EWG piece and credulous media reports on it are all bunkum.
An ongoing measles epidemic has sickened over 100 people in 21 states already. And if people try to tell you measles isn’t that bad, ask them if they know about the fatal brain-wasting complication that shows up ten years later.
An 11-month-old boy had a stroke from catching the chicken pox from unvaccinated older siblings. (He was too young for the vaccination.) I don’t understand how this isn’t child neglect. The boy will likely have permanent neurological damage and is at increased risk of another cerebrovascular incident.
I linked to the #MeToo stories on Four Barrel Coffee over the winter, when the scandal first broke. Eight months later, the business is recovering but the owners haven’t divested to employees as they promised. Their reasons aren’t invalid, but when you state to the public and to your workers that you’re going to do something, failing to do so is a serious abdication of responsibility.
This New York Times story asks what happens to #MeToo when the harasser is a feminist professor? The answer, entirely predictably, is that other academics closed ranks around her, rather than believing her accuser.
Neo-Confederates – Christ, how is this even a thing – are now openly courting Russian assistance, which has to be a joke, not that I think these people are smart enough to punk the mainstream media, but white supremacists making friends with our main geopolitical adversary, today and from the last 70 years, is too ridiculous to be real. Of course, these neo-Nazi types ain’t the brightest bulbs.
First We Feast’s Hot Ones videos can be kind of amusing for the guests’ reactions to the spiciest hot sauces they consume as the interview nears its end, but most of the time, that’s been the only appeal for me. Their latest episode with Michael Cera is the best pure interview I’ve seen from the show – and he takes the million-Scoville hot sauce like a damn veteran.
KUOW looks at how Ohio used technology to help clear its rape kit backlog and asks why other states, like Washington, aren’t doing the same.
West Virginia’s Republican Party just pulled an end run around voters to pack its Supreme Court before this fall’s elections.
Joe Scarborough asks why the GOP has abnegated its responsibilities on Russia despite clear evidence that the country interfered in our elections and continues to do so, even trying to stop ongoing investigations into Russia’s efforts.
Georgia leaders are trying to close polling places in heavily Democractic precincts, citing ADA requirements to justify their attempts at voter suppression. The ACLU is fighting it, but the real problem is the 2013 Supreme Court ruling Shelby County v. Holder, which invalidated key parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
BuzzFeed profiled Parkland shooting survivor Jaclyn Corin, who is less famous than some of her classmates but is more instrumental in organizing the students’ movement for greater gun control.
Entertainment Weekly interviewed Steven Universe creator Rebecca Sugar on LGBTQ representation in animation and children’s series.
I’m not sure if this Vox piece on why adults find it hard to make and maintain friendships is all that accurate, but its points, especially about being a reliable friend, are worth considering.
Board games: If you’re familiar with the very fun One Night Ultimate Werewolf – which, I recently discovered, my six-year-old niece is shockingly good at playing – there’s a spinoff title, One Night Ultimate Super Villains, on Kickstarter now. It’s a little more kid-oriented in theme and language.
Starling Games has a Kickstarter going for a new expansion to its Alien Frontiers game.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: africa, baseball, board games, environment, first amendment, health, links, privacy, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ August 17, 2018
→ By keith

Deep Work.

I am very prone to distractions, especially when it comes to sitting down at the computer to get work done. The obvious one is social media – I need to be on Twitter and Facebook for work purposes, but I spend far more time on those sites, especially the former, than I could justify rationally – which soaks up far too much of both my time and attention each day. But there are far more distractions around me, even though I don’t work in an office. Email is a constant intrusion, coupled with the feeling that you have to respond to certain emails immediately. Texts are the same, with an even greater sense of urgency. But there are also more mundane aspects of quotidian life at home that interfere with my ability to work – seemingly innocuous things like stopping to make coffee or to grab the mail, or to do a little cleaning, or to go get the mail, or to start prepping dinner. I’m aware on some level that all of these things make me less productive than I could be, but it takes a conscious effort to surmount them.

Cal Newport has some advice for me and anyone else who suffers from the noises & distractions from anything good in his new book Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World, a quick read that offers some hard advice that sounds easy to follow but in practice is hard to implement. He argues that deep work is an entirely different mode of thinking, the kind that we tend to disdain today because it doesn’t ‘look’ productive, but in fact is far more conducive to the kinds of productivity that matter: you’ll get more done, and what you do will be better. Newport even emphasizes that this is the kind of work that’s going to matter more in our modern, knowledge-driven economy, where merely being good at repetitive but shallow tasks isn’t enough to give you a sustainable career.

Deep Work has two sections, and you could easily just skip the first and read the second if you’re more focused on advice and a checklist for becoming a deep worker than in his arguments why deep work matters (although I’d still recommend reading the whole thing). That first part explains why you should realign your working habits around deep work: that it’s valuable in the marketplace, that few people can do it well, and that the cognitive processes around it produce work that is meaningful for the person doing it. Your brain functions differently in ‘deep work’ modes, and the more time you spend practicing it, the better you’ll get, producing more work and higher quality work as a result. He delves into the idea of ‘deliberate practice,’ popularized by Malcolm Gladwell and then roundly mocked by critics, going back to the professor, K. Anders Ericsson, who coined the phrase based on research into how we learn difficult material and what separates experts in certain fields from others working in those areas.

Newport also talks distractions, explaining why they’re a real problem in part one and recommending avoiding them in part two. Open offices come in for particular criticism, because they create more noises and more opportunities for co-workers to interrupt any attempts at deep work, all under the guise of creating “more opportunities for collaboration” (which, he later points out, may not even be accurate). The increased desire across industries to measure employee productivity – what Newport calls “the metric black hole” – also contributes to the fight against deep work, driving employees to do what will improve their metrics, not what will be more productive. And there are huge social obstacles to deep work, because most of us naturally want to be responsive, collegial, and, worst of all, available for colleagues when they appear to need our attention.

Part two of Deep Work is the checklist, four global rules, each with various corollaries, for becoming a deep worker: practice working deeply, embrace boredom, quit social media, and schedule your day to sequester and minimize shallow work. Newport is really prescribing an entirely new way to approach your job, one that will probably feel highly restrictive and type A to most people. But even in less than two weeks of dabbling in some of his recommendations, I can vouch for everything I’ve tried. There’s no question he’s right about social media; I used to keep Twitter and my public Facebook page open in browser tabs all day, so I could keep an eye on relevant news and respond to reader questions, but I’ve stopped doing that entirely. I’m writing this post with my browser closed entirely, and have reserved any questions or links I’ll need to finish this review until I’ve completed the body text and am almost ready to post it. I’ve started cordoning off email time, realizing that virtually nothing in my email related to work is actually urgent unless it’s an editor’s question about something I’ve filed – and by that point, my period of deep work has paused because I’ve finished a column or post and moved on to the next task. I’ve long encouraged readers to post baseball questions in my chats, where I can address the entire audience at once, rather than via private messages like email or Facebook, where my answer goes to just one person. (I also wouldn’t have time to answer all the baseball questions I get through email or other services, but if you message me with questions about mental health, I will answer.) Somehow I managed to write a book without very good work habits, judging by the standards Newport lays out in Deep Work, but if I do get the chance to write another one, I’ll feel much better armed to do it now that I’ve read his advice.

Next up: Min Jin Lee’s 2017 novel Pachinko.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: highly recommended, non-fiction, psychology, self-help books

→ August 16, 2018
→ By keith

The English Patient.

I’d never read Michael Ondaatje’s 1992 novel The English Patient until late May of this year, despite recommendations from multiple people, its status as a Booker Prize winner, and its adaptation into an Oscar-winning film (that I still have not seen). This past week, a public poll voted it the best Booker winner of all time (the so-called “Golden Booker”), choosing it from five candidates, one from each decade of the award’s history, but I tweeted that I wouldn’t even put it top five among the 14 Booker winners I’ve read; my favorite is Kazuo Ishiguro’s The Remains of the Day, which wasn’t on the shortlist. While I do like Ondaatje’s writing, I couldn’t possibly have felt less connected to a story than I did to this one, about four people holed up in a damaged Italian villa in the wake of World War II.

The patient of the title might be English, and is certainly modeled after the Hungarian count Count László de Almásy, although the Count didn’t crash and burn in the Sahara as this patient did. The fictional version is burned over nearly his entire body and has no hope of recovery. He’s cared for by the shell-shocked nurse Hana, and they’re joined by the Sikh sapper Kip and the Canadian thief Caravaggio, with their four stories told in intertwined narratives, with the patient’s recollections of his affair with a friend’s wife and eventual betrayal forming the book’s foundation.

Although the patient’s story sits at the center of the book, Kip’s narrative is both more interesting and more insightful, and I think a book about him would have held my attention and my empathy much more than the distant plot about Almásy did. Kip is Indian-born and goes against the nationalist leanings of his brother when he volunteers to become a sapper in the British army, joining an all-white unit that keeps him at arm’s length even when he proves skilled at his job. He is effectively drafted into a more elite group headed by Lord Suffolk (also based on a real person), who trains the best sappers in disposing of new types of bombs, but this brief honeymoon of belonging ends abruptly and cuts Kip adrift, landing him eventually into an abortive affair with Hana. The way that ends is one of the novel’s strongest moments, as an external event bursts the bubble in which Kip has been hiding for some time – the same one that Hana refuses to leave even though the war in Europe has ended.

I suppose part of the popular appeal of both the book and the film is that the patient’s recollections of his affair with Katherine Clifton, portrayed in the film by Kristin Scott-Thomas, depict some sort of great romance – especially founded as it was on a deep intellectual connection – but that scarcely comes across in the pages of the book, between Ondaatje’s fuzzy descriptions, probably to emphasize that we are reading the muddled memories of a gravely injured man, and the absence of any depth to Katherine’s character.

Perhaps the movie develops her character more, or fleshes out other parts of the story, but while I respect Ondaatje’s dedication to historical accuracy in borrowing these personages and his deft writing, I felt utterly detached from this story from start to finish.

Next up: Min Jin Lee’s 2017 novel Pachinko.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: academy award for best picture, canadian literature, historical fiction, historical novels, man booker prize, world war ii

→ August 16, 2018
→ By keith

Klawchat 8/16/18.

My wrap-up of all the games I saw at Gen Con earlier this month is now up over at Paste. For Insiders, I wrote up how Shane Baz affects the Archer trade balance, plus notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers from the Phillies, Rockies, and Cleveland systems.

Also, I’m co-hosting another family board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in Wilmington on Friday night, August 17th, starting at 5:30 pm. You can bring your own games or just bring yourselves, as last time there were probably two dozen games there between the library’s collection and games others brought. All ages are welcome and there will be kids there.

Keith Law: Damn the dark, damn the light. Klawchat.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.
Keith Law: No. Hate ’em.

Ryan: do you see the braves trading any prospects this winter for a veteran? if so whose most likely to go?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do what they just did for Duvall – trade from the surplus, the edges of the system, not the core prospects. You keep the Toukis and the Goharas and the Sorokas (if healthy), but trade the Sims.

addoeh: Which is better; to have more hits than Sadaharu Oh or mad hits like Rod Carew?
Keith Law: Neither. Better to be clutch like Piazza.

Kevin: How would you currently rank the White Sox farm system? Have the injuries impacted their overall ranking? It seems they have been hurt more than prior years.
Keith Law: Tough year for them, still near the top in terms of high-upside talent, only graduated one major guy (I think?) from my list.

JG: Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and hit everywhere else. I don’t think he’s a star but I believe I’ve been consistent the last few years in saying he’s a regular, and someone who’ll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

Sean: Have you had a chance to review the international signing rule changes? I have not had a chance to do a deep dive into the new international signing rules. It appears though that these rules just really acknowledge the fact that the majority of those players sign prior to their J2 date. From my point of view nothing is really about to change, do you see the same thing?
Keith Law: Yes, that was my quick take too. Formalizing some of that process can create more transparency, and I think it will help players too, since teams could always try to back out of oral agreements. The rules allowing teams to help players travel for workouts are more important, because there are still players in Venezuela, but going there to scout them is too dangerous.

Brian: Is there a major league future for Mickey Moniak?
Keith Law: I don’t see much of one right now.

Ian: What is a good solution to getting rid of purposeful HBPs? Consequences for the manager? Fine an owner every time a pitcher gets suspended for a beanball? The MLB has to realize that a potential season ending injury for a rising star is not a great idea…
Keith Law: A suspension of more than five games for a pitcher would be great. Urena should be suspended for at least 10 games … I’d say something in the 15-20 range.

Rodney: Great pizza list! I recommend Black Sheep the next time you’re in Minneapolis (equal or better than Pizzeria Lola, imo), and Lovely’s Fifty Fifty when you’re checking out Apizza Scholls in Portland.

On to less important stuff. Should John Gant stay in the rotation when Wacha returns?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t think so. He’s basically a replacement level starter; Wacha should be more than that.

Eric, Washington DC: I am comparing the stats of Scherzer and Nola on ESPN and I’m confused to see that Nola’s WAR is 7.4 compared to 7.0 for Scherzer. Scherzer has better numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, Ks, Innings) so I’m wondering why he’s behind Nola. Any ideas?
Keith Law: Yes, Baseball Reference makes some small adjustments such as considering the caliber of competition the pitchers faced. They explain all of that in more detail here than I could do justice to in a chat.

Jaipur rules: What do you think would be a better 2019 plan for the Cubs? Sign Machado to play 3rd, move Baez to SS and Bryant to LF and look to trade Russell/Schwarber. Or sign Harper to play OF, keep the Infield as is and potentially trade Schwarber. It seems like both offensively and defensively Option A might be better?
Keith Law: Option A is better than B, but is either really necessary? I feel like their offense is fine, and they still have some surplus there, but they still need and will continue to need help on the pitching side, rotation and bullpen.

Brian: You mentioned on Twitter the need for people to stop scouting based on stat line. That left me wondering If you’ve got a player who isn’t old for his level, what accounts for a guy who isn’t a prospect posting a huge stat line? Is it a fluke? A guy hitting mistakes that won’t get made at higher levels, etc?
Keith Law: It can be a fluke. It can absolutely be a guy hitting minor-league caliber stuff, or getting away with things that better pitchers – with better stuff or command – will exploit.

Bighen: If Mets hire a new Gm and force him (or her) to try to compete in 2019 what is their best path? They’re not signing machado, Harper etc and improving around the margins on a ~75 win team probably not getting it done. That being said the last two months have made it look like they have 3 aces. Or an ace and two top end SP anyway. Hard to see how they do it wo the will to spend.
Keith Law: I agree. If I were asked to take that job, I’d be talking three-year plans, not one-year. You have talent on the ML roster, and talent coming, but not enough to turn this team into a contender (without a LOT of luck/good health) next year unless you’re spending.

Grover: I’ve heard you express your doubts as to whether or not Julio Urias can recapture any semblance of what made him a top prospect: is your concern more with whether or not he will ever get his stuff back, or durability because of the nature of his shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher who’s had this surgery has truly come back; some never return, and those who have have returned with reduced stuff. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs saw Urias in Arizona and reported that his stuff was indeed down.

Lyle: Earlier this season Eric Filia was traded for Roenis Elias but the Red Sox sent Filia back for a failed physical. Since then, Filia has basically played every day for the M’s AA team. So…what kind of injury causes a player to fail a physical for one team and play every day for another?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, we had Dustin McGowan in our system, and knew he had a partial tear of his UCL, but he pitched through it without issue for about four years until it finally snapped. He would have failed a review of medicals in a trade, but he was able to pitch.

Grover: Is there a stat to track who has hit the most rally killing homers?
Keith Law: Someone get Elias on this, stat.

tmh: Do you see Jesus Luzardo as a #2 or more of a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: More mid-rotation until the breaking ball improves.

Murphy: What would you do to discourage pitchers from intentionally throwing at hitters?
Keith Law: If you suspend the pitchers long enough, it will end the practice.

redsoxfan: Dio you still think Mitch Keller has ace potential? Last night start in AAA was encouraging but has struggled. Has hje developed a passable 3rd pitch yet?
Keith Law: Potential, yes. Third pitch is not there, however, and at some point it becomes foolish to assume it will be.

clb: Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?
Keith Law: Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don’t think top 15, not yet.

michael: do you think the giants farm system is getting on track and maybe even on the upswing? bart / hjelle seemed to be reasonable picks based upon your pre-draft rankings. their international signings (like luciano) seemed to be good. Are we another solid draft away from potentially being an above average farm system?
Keith Law: No, a few drafts from that. I didn’t like Bart at pick 2. Hjelle I did. They’ve had a down year with existing prospects, too.

CD: In the last chat you mentioned that Richie Martin is not a good defensive SS. That’s the first time I’ve heard that. One of the main reasons Oakland drafted him in the first round was because of his defensive ability. How/why did he regress since being drafted?
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was good as a junior at Florida. He was fast, but erratic, and his hands weren’t great.

Neil: Lewis Thorpe’s stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?
Keith Law: I only saw him in DC and it wasn’t a promising outing. I’d be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn’t quite there.

Randy: Are you gonna try to see Luis Robert before the season ends? Hopefully he doesn’t get injured the day before you go like the last couple times!
Keith Law: They don’t come near me again. I’m hoping he ends up in Fall League.

Harry: What do you say to those so-called traditionalists who defend Urena
Keith Law: Go watch cockfighting instead. More your speed.

Jeremy: How annoyed are you of vlad Jr being in the minors ? Nothing bother me more in baseball
Keith Law: It’s kind of ridiculous now. I was trying to eyeball how many wins they’d lost by having Morales etc as their DHs this season instead of Vlad. Three felt about right.

Warbiscuit: Odds of you going back to Auburn in the spring to scout Will Holland and/or Davis Daniel?
Keith Law: Slim. Sorry.

Ryan: Have you heard anything about the Mets Kingsport roster? Very early in their careers, but there seems to be a lot of potential talent on that roster.
Keith Law: Yes. Kelenic’s on another tear now.

John: Will DeGrom set a new standard for worst W-L to win a Cy Young?
Keith Law: I would enjoy that and its aftermath very much. My colleague Michael Wilbon had some rather outdated thoughts on the subject the other day.

Rob: So Will Myers at 3rd did not look “terrible” from my eye. With all the outfield guys they’re trying out and Hosmer (sadly) locked in, would you spend the off season trying this out? As far as I can tell 3b is one of the few places the Padres don’t have elite prospects coming.
Keith Law: Potts is pretty damn good. And one or more of those shortstops will move to third eventually. But for next year, moving Myers back to 3b would be a great idea.

Joe: If you’re the Braves, do you put Touki in the big league rotation and let him go or do you use him kind of like D. Price in his rookie year out of the bullpen to limit his innings?
Keith Law: Break him in slowly now, as a long reliever, but he’s in the rotation in April for me.

Andre: Was at Bryse Wilson’s start last night in Gwinnett. He was filthy from start to finish. Is he a DUDE/what’s his potential?
Keith Law: Was on my midyear top 50. I’m a huge fan. Great pick in the 4th round, great work by player development to clean him up too.

john: How much should we be concerned about Faedos drop in speed and dominancy? Seems like he went from a 2-3 guy to back end guy.
Keith Law: I was a little bearish on him in the draft – I saw a slider-heavy guy without a fastball that was good enough to make him a potential 2.

DevilExpos: Thoughts on Brandon Lowe? Is there anyone else you like in the Rays system that isn’t as heralded as Jesus/McKay and could breakout soon like Lowe did this season? Solak? Brock Burke? Joe McCarthy?
Keith Law: I do like McCarthy, but his upside is probably capped if he doesn’t gain power somewhere. Ronaldo Hernandez might be a star. I’m still a Lucius Fox fan. Michael Mercado has looked really good despite so-so results.

Justin : The Boston Globe is getting threats for running an editorial claiming a free press is not the enemy. Are these the end times?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: Did the Acuna HBP appear intentional to you?
Keith Law: 100%.

Kosmo: Love your work Keith! Maybe as a rangers fan I’m desperate for one of our young pitchers to turn out good, but joe palumbo looks great coming off the injury. Do you think he has mid-rotation potential?
Keith Law: I would just barely take the under on this.

Dan: Is Kyle Tucker going to be okay?
Keith Law: He’s 21. Yes.

Mike: Keith, the Braves just signed up to be a high-visibility sponsor for a fundraising event for the Republican candidate for governor. He is virulently anti-immigrant. How do you think the Braves players feel about that?
Keith Law: He’s not just anti-immigrant. He has a history of voter suppression and targeting minority groups that try to encourage people of color to vote.

RB: What’s going on with Anderson Espinoza? Do you think he can regain form post-injury, whenever that is?
Keith Law: We’ll see next year. I don’t think he was expected to see the mound in games this year.

Lark11: Is there any hope for Robert Stephenson? He’s issuing 4-pitch walks to opposing pitchers and missing his location on some pitches by 3 feet. Is there any lingering basis on which to hope for improvements in control/command? If not, is there any role in which he can actually provide positive production? Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s one of the bigger disappointments for me in the last few years because the stuff has been so damn good but he has made zero progress in three seasons. Putting him in the bullpen probably isn’t going to solve anything, either; this isn’t about lacking stuff to turn over a lineup, but about not throwing enough strikes.

Devon: Keith, do you think Tampa Bay will take its time developing Wander Franco? Would a monster performance force their hand or will they stick to org. philosophy?
Keith Law: I’ll predict he’s in the majors before he turns 20.

Deke: Understand if you can’t answer this, but listening to you guest-hosting for Buster recently, is it difficult for you to do some of the ad live-reads? I felt like I was listening to a pod person hearing you speak highly of certain hot dogs and certain beers.
Keith Law: I was trying very hard not to crack up while reading those. Especially the one for a mass-market beer I wouldn’t drink if you paid me.

Chris: Any GM candidates you’d like to see get a look this offseason?
Keith Law: The Mets are supposedly going to interview my old mentor from Toronto, Tony Lacava, who would be a superb choice, and would fit the alleged ‘old-school’ preference while giving them someone who was also very quick to adapt to the analytical side too. I’ve also seen other names I would recommend on their potential interview list – Bobby Heck, Jared Porter, Ben Cherington, any of whom would be a very good hire.

JP: what would be your AL MVP ballot as of today?
Keith Law: Betts, Ramirez, Trout.

Scott: With LeMahieu about to be a free agent and Story looking like a regular for now, would you shift Brendan Rodgers over to 2B next season or is Garrett Hampson someone you think is worth giving an every day opportunity to in the meantime?
Keith Law: I prefer Rodgers at short to Hampson. There are scouts who disagree and scouts (more) who think both end up at other positions.

Matt: Outside of recent draft picks, are there any rules regarding PTBNLs? If team A wanted a specific young major leaguer but team B wanted to keep him for a current playoff run, could they agree on him and complete the trade after the season?
Keith Law: You can’t rent a player like that. There are rules on PTBNLs. I don’t have them handy right now.

JP: does Greg Bird have the skills (and health) to be an above-average 1B?
Keith Law: Defensively? No shot.

Jack: So what did you see from Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: My Insider post on him will be up shortly. I already filed it.

Brian: Bukauskus has been pitching well this season. Was it just a matter of him getting healthy?
Keith Law: He was recovering from a serious car accident.

J: Obviously a SSS since the trade, but could the Tigers have stolen a player in Wili Castro?
Keith Law: I raved about him in my writeup of the deal.

Dave: These chat are too fun, Keith. You’re gonna have to be knocked down.
Keith Law: Dammit, Jose.

Nick Taylor: Book recommendation: “There There” by Tommy Orange. Gritty realist novel of linked stories, a la Jennifer Egan’s “Goon Squad,” with a cast of Native American characters living in Oakland. Climax is a huge powwow (festival) on the field at the Coliseum. Best novel I’ve read this year. Watch this guy Orange…
Keith Law: Thank you! Hadn’t heard of this.

Van Skike: Should the Reds give Siri a September call-up this year?
Keith Law: I’m more interested in how they call him up. “Hey, Siri!”
Keith Law: (Also: No. He’s not hitting in AA.)

The Bilmo: Very reasonable pizza list! Many I’ve been to, many more I’m looking forward to. Assuming you’ve enjoyed Pepe’s white clam, have you tried Zuppardi’s white clam in neabry West Haven? Many (not me) say it beats Pepe’s. It’s awfully good (the clams are shucked to order), and the fact that there can even be a Pepe’s/Zuppardi’s debate makes it noteworthy.
Keith Law: I have tried Pepe’s white clam pizza and don’t like it at all. I don’t think clams belong on pizza. Or anywhere with cheese involved.

J: Better chance of rebounding/becoming a good starter? Faedo or Burrows?
Keith Law: I think Burrows is a high probability starter.

Lark11: Honest question: to this point in his career, is Mike Trout the best baseball player in the history of the sport?
Keith Law: I would say so. I tend to favor contemporary players over past ones, because the level of competition today is so much higher. The best player in the world in 1910 had a lower bar to clear than the best player today.

leprekhan: Who is the Braves’ prospect whose stock has gone up the most in your eyes? What players have seen their stock go down the most?
Keith Law: Drew Waters had the biggest turnaround, after looking bad last summer, now hitting well enough to get promoted midseason.

Jeff: Jarred Kelenic and Shervyen Newton are basically the same age at the same level. Newton has show so far at his previous levels his ability to get on base . I understand that at this age part of a prospects ranking is a projection, I was just wondering what makes Kelenic such a better prospect than Newton and if you are high in Newton at all?
Keith Law: Different tool sets. I do like Newton.

Rick: Are Eloy and Vlad Jr, both going to be held down until mid-April 2019 at this point? What other reason is there for them not to be up right now?
Keith Law: No real reason other than service time.

Brett: Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).
Keith Law: No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don’t hit.

Devon: Keith, has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Ruiz is 19. Really?

Ryan: If Brice Turang never develops more than some modest gap power, what is his ceiling as a player overall? Is there enough else there to sustain a 4-win player?
Keith Law: I question whether he’ll hit enough to be a 4-win player.

Dan: What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?
Keith Law: If you think he can start, he’s a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there’s a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

WarBiscuit: Does the minor league lifestyle play a deterrent role in parents sending their kids to college ball, particularly if they don’t get a good draft selection or offer? Obviously I still think the Brady Aikens, Carter Stewart and JT Ginn’s of the world should take the money and run. As a student of a major DI baseball school, the college does provide free food that’s actually nutritious to the baseball players and can at least sleep in comfortable beds, where as the lack of pay can prevent a nutritious diet and and can cut into your signing bonus which can turn into 5 figures after taxes. It may be better on a baseball development perspective depending on the coach for those reasons. Obviously if it’s Rice/UVA/Stanford it is not as good, but if it’s Florida/Vandy, it may be better. I think MLB teams should pay minimum wage for the season’s length or at least provide better diets to the minor league grinders. I’m sure you have more to say on this.
Keith Law: I do hear this occasionally from parents and often from college coaches and even players who went to college – the minor league life ain’t fun, but college ball can be. I get that. If college coaches as a whole did a better job of developing players – using pitchers responsibly, teaching hitters to hit instead of fucking bunting in the motherfucking first inning i’m not angry – I’d be more of an advocate for college. Some schools, like the ones you named (Florida, Vandy), do a better job than others. I think the individual school matters tremendously. And MLB doing an end run around the courts to avoid paying a living wage to minor leaguers was a disgrace.

Junior : Billy Eppler has completely change the Angels farm system to a top ten system. Do you agree?
Keith Law: He’s changed it to an above-average system.

Kwame : Who (in an ideal/optimized world) plays first base for the Mets next year. Also can you post the link you used to put on twitter that outlines fallacies?
Keith Law: Smith should probably play every day from here on out, with the plan to transition to Alonso at some point next spring … if Alonso’s defense is good enough. I don’t think it is right now. Yourlogicalfallacyis.com is the site you want.

Larry: Madrigal slugging .340 in the low minors. Please tell me the 4th pick in the country has more than 30 power.
Keith Law: I thought he had 35 power so … yes?

Zac: Please tell me the Jays will call up Vlad Jr when rosters expand?
Keith Law: I don’t think they will.

JP: is there no worthy pizza in Boston? Regina’s?
Keith Law: Overrated. Never had Santarpios, which gets some raves, and which many locals will tell you is good if you’re drunk and it’s 2 am.

Zach D: Ever have your child throw a board game at you cause you beat her? I mean, that’s how you make your competition feel uncomfortable or something
Keith Law: We just rapid-fire meeples at each other.

andy: OK. I get it. Small sample size. But should I be encouraged by Grant Lavigne’s performance in the Pioneer League (a hitter’s league, for sure). I know you wrote that he might have had a higher pre-draft grade if he were from a warm weather state. Has his performance backed that up further?
Keith Law: Go look at past seasons for the Grand Junction club, and how many hitters have gone bananas there, even at young ages, but never panned out. I wouldn’t really alter my view on Lavigne until he’s at sea level.

Nick: Garver Alston said that he could see Dakota Chalmers being an “organization changer.” Is there any reason to believe there could be any truth to that or is that just him blowing smoke?
Keith Law: I strongly disagree with that assessment. Also he’s out with TJ so he’s not changing anything just yet.

Kingpin: And a follow up…should Lulen Baker be at a higher level considering he is a college hitter in Low-A?
Keith Law: He’s in the Appy, no? Gorman belongs there, Baker I’d have moved up by now.

Josh : Taylor Ward seemed to come out of nowhere, wasn’t on any top 100 lists yet the buzz appears to be high on him…. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Didn’t belong on top 100 lists. Was old for AA, raked in a hitter’s park in AAA. Has power, fair hit tool, unclear position.

Adam: Have you come around on Camargo’s bat at all? If he is this player is he a regular?
Keith Law: He isn’t this player.

Adam: I had never seen Touki pitch before his debut. How on earth does that curve break that way from that arm slot?!?!
Keith Law: He’s always had an insanely loose arm, and great arm speed. He’s among the most fun pitching prospects to watch because he can do so many things so easily.

Chuck: Was David Bote on any scouts radar as any kind of a prospect? Sure, it’s a SSS, but you have to love how he plays the game and what he brings offensively and defensively. I guess he’s a reminder that scouting isn’t an exact science.
Keith Law: He was #12 on my Cubs ranking preseason, so I guess he’s a reminder that you should read the stuff I write?

Tracy: Have you read any Philip K Dick books? I don’t recall any mentions of his works from you.
Keith Law: I’ve read sixteen of his novels.

Jax : So Profar’s had a pretty good year. He should put up even better numbers going forward, right?
Keith Law: He’s had a solid year. I still feel like there’s much more in there.

Nate: If you felt comfortable projecting ke’bryan Hayes to hit 20 homers would he be a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Top 10 is awfully steep. I can only put ten guys in there.

Aaron C.: Your pizza list — and the discussion it produced — was fun! I remember a few years ago, you ranked rap songs. Have you done any other “Dish” lists that I can peruse to waste time at work today?
Keith Law: Novels, back in 2013ish. I need to update that. Then annual rankings of songs etc.

Jaime : Remember that NYT cartoon about how freedom of speech works? Yeah, the firing of James Gunn was Disney (and everyone) letting him know his jokes were trash. It’s not a good look for you when you defend him.
Keith Law: I did not defend him. I thought his jokes were trash.

Guest: more likely to have better career: ian happ or hunter renfroe; jake junis or jake faria
Keith Law: Happ. faria.

Oscar: Monsanto has to pay 289 million for roundup giving a man cancer, yet we’re supposed to believe GMO’s are safe based on the studies they fund, and ignore their questionable history to boot? Count me out.
Keith Law: Monsanto may have to pay a man something because 12 idiots believed a lawyer’s claims that Roundup gave the man cancer, despite a lack of any scientific evidence to support this. Cancer doesn’t even need a cause. The jury system is utterly useless for adjudicating questions of science.

Joe: Keith, thank you for the write-up of Gen Con games. I asked you in a chat years ago about a game that would work well for someone who was blind. My wife Martha lost most of her vision when she was 20 years old. She loves to play games but most games don’t work well for her. We’re looking forward to trying your No. 1 recommendation.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. Nyctophobia should be in Targets any day now – mine had a space for it on the shelf but no copies as of last week.

Richard: Kevin Smith seemingly came out of nowhere and is raking in Lansing. Do you see a future regular SS in him?
Keith Law: I do not. He also hasn’t been in Lansing since early June, and isn’t hitting that well in Dunedin (a more appropriate spot for a 22-year-old college product).

Jax : Were you surprised that Atlanta didn’t dangle Fried at the deadline? And do you think they will this winter? I think he could be really good but it’s difficult to see how he fits into their rotation.
Keith Law: He’d be in that Sims group I mentioned earlier (I know they dealt Sims). Fried pitches in someone’s rotation, but I don’t think he’s top six on their depth chart.

Danny: I live across the street from Franny’s last location before they closed and agree with your take. Please try Emily’s in Crown Heights next time you’re in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Lot of recs for Emily’s.

Karl: Are you buying that Glasnow just needed a change of scenery? Or perhaps too soon to judge?
Keith Law: Too soon to judge. Also entirely possible that he needed a new voice to help him find a delivery he can repeat.

Jesse B: If the 2018 MLB Draft was held today, who would be drafted much higher? Gorman?
Keith Law: You’re dealing with tiny samples for all these guys. I don’t think a ton would change.

Josh : Is Gavin Lux a potential all-star MI?
Keith Law: Potential, yes.

Quincy: I recently discovered (and loved!) your 100 favorite novels list. I wondered if you could comment on why none of Solzhenitsyn’s or Tolstoy’s works made your list. Not a fan personally, or do you see their work as less than excellent?
Keith Law: Don’t think Tolstoy’s works hold up that well at all – the reputation Russian novels have for excessive length and meandering plots falls primarily on him. I’ve only read one of Solzhenitsyn’s novels, Ivan Denisovich, and didn’t love it.
Keith Law: I’ve read almost 1000 novels now, so making my top 100 would mean something would have to be in the top 10% of everything I’ve read.

Jax : Do you think Giolito needs an off-season to get his shit straight? He’s at least looked decent recently and his velo is back up to 93-95.
Keith Law: He’s looked better recently outside of that one outing vs the Yanks (and giving up a grand slam to Stanton is … well, forgivable?). But overall it’s not the year I expected, especially since all reports in March had him repeating his delivery and commanding the ball in a way he hasn’t really all season.

Ron: A question I just thought of because work is boring me: Who is the best team in the NL? My initial reaction is the Cubs, but the pitching staff and uncertainty with Bryant’s shoulder makes me nervous. Arizona might be the top choice, right?
Keith Law: Gut answer is the Cubs. I won’t argue Arizona.

Anthony: How much of a long term cause for concern is Hunter Greene’s UCL injury
Keith Law: It depends a bit on how serious the sprain is. At this point, they’re acting like it will only require rest. But a sprain typically means a tear, even a tiny one. (It can sometimes mean the ligament has been stretched to the point of causing pain or discomfort, but it’s a fine line between that and the beginnings of a UCL tear.)

Greg: Harrison Bader outperforming your expectation? Baseball Reference at 3.5 WAR now
Keith Law: WAR doesn’t do that well with part-time players (which he was for much of the season) when they’re used for platoon purposes. He still has nearly 40% of his PA vs LHP, whom he has killed, but has been way below average, probably near replacement level, vs RHP.

Greg: I happened to be at an event where Chvrches played recently, and I got a quick second to meet Lauren Mayberry. Even though I avoid meeting my idols out of fear of disappoint, I couldn’t pass this one up, and she was maybe the nicest, most polite person I’ve ever encountered and I have no question but just wanted to say that there are still good things in the world.
Keith Law: That’s awesome to hear although unsurprising given her writings and the interviews I’ve seen. Also I’m a fan because I’m pretty sure she’s shorter than I am.

Jake: Kyle Isbel has been raking since entering Pro ball, as a KC fan, is this a guy I should be excited about?
Keith Law: I’m on it, but next year in high-A will be a real test of what he is.

John: I saw Schilling tear into Olberman the other day regarding his Monday Night Baseball broadcasting job. I actually enjoyed the broadcast very much and wish Kieth were on more often? Do you know Olberman at all?
Keith Law: I’d say that’s a badge of honor for Keith. I have talked to Keith a few times, and was on his show several times a few years ago. He’s off the charts intelligent and really knows his shit about baseball – and we still disagree on stuff. Also, if you ask ESPN people who worked with him, they all marvel at how fast he could absorb material and how long he could speak extemporaneously on air.

Matt: Not going overboard, but did you see this kind of year from Andujar? He never seemed to project to this, but ignored he can maintain this he is a solid regular.
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular, trending towards a 55 rather than a 50. Had him on my top 100 in the winter and argued that they didn’t need to acquire a 3b because he could do it.

Mike : What major-league team’s record that you are most surprised at this year ?
Keith Law: Phillies on the up side, Nats on the down side.

Sam: How would you rank all of the Mission Impossible movies?
Keith Law: I saw the first one and stopped.

Ryan: Does Fredy Peralta ever develop enough command to be an above average big league starter?
Keith Law: It’s not command – it’s stuff.

Tracy: Also, another book question. Have you read GK Chesterton? Father Brown books?
Keith Law: Only The Man Who Was Thursday, which is weird and probably not that great as a novel but still kind of wonderful for its strangeness.

mickey: what’s the first thing I should try cooking in my new sous vide device?
Keith Law: Serious Eats’ chicken thighs recipe. Easy and fantastic.

Mike: This may be a very personal question, and if so, I apologize. Do you send your daughter to public school in Delaware, or private school? No judgement either way, just curious.
Keith Law: Charter school. I would not pay for private school. Delaware does underfund its public schools, unfortunately – my taxes are shockingly low – and we discovered that class sizes were too big in our local elementary school.

Zach: See you finally made it to Spacca Napoli. Thoughts? (That was me who created the pizza map)
Keith Law: Yes, two years ago, I think – the day Schilling was fired by ESPN for the transphobic meme. I nearly missed my flight because the news broke and my phone blew up. The meal was amazing, though. Would go back in a heartbeat.

Jake: Keith, give me an under the radar name to watch for among KC prospects.
Keith Law: I don’t have one for you. You know the good ones. Below that, it drops off quickly.

Rick C: Who would be your NL MVP right now? The top three position players are all at 5.0 fWAR, though deGrom, Scherzer, and Corbin are ahead of them.
Keith Law: deGrom.

Royals Fan in DC: Which Wilmington Blue Rock has improved his MLB prospect status the most this season? We Royals fans need a glimmer of hope.
Keith Law: Khalil Lee but he’s long gone from Wilmington. The team now is void of prospects. Next year we could have Matias, Melendez, Pratto, Isbel, and the five college starters they just drafted.

Dr. Bob: I am in complete agreement on the idiocy of relying on pitcher wins and losses. However, I was reminded of Steve Carlton going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games in his first of four Cy Young seasons. The 27 wins represented 46% of the Phillies wins. Flawed stat, but that’s quite a season.
Keith Law: I agree. And pitcher wins, while always flawed, were slightly less so when pitchers were able to work much deeper into games. But now they throw a lot harder, and relievers throw harder than that, and we know teams are more likely to win by pulling the starter after 3x through the order (or sooner).

Nick: Next big competitive advantage a team will figure out and l leverage in player development ? My guess is it’s gotta be health related.
Keith Law: I was asked that by a writer 12+ years ago, in my last spring with Toronto. That was my answer then and it’s still my answer now.

Ryan: Would you be able to name a beer or 2 that you would consider your favorite?
Keith Law: Evolution Lot #3 IPA.

HugoZ: Wouldn’t it be wiser to simply state that every mlb team should avoid the perception that it’s favoring a particular candidate,whatever his or her ideology, so as to avoid alienating part of the fan base?
Keith Law: I mostly agree with this. However, if one of your candidates is a white supremacist, that’s where you make the exception. (And there are quite a few running this November.)

Brett: Not a question, but as a direct result of followin your chats and your work, my outfield in fantasy baseball next year (Keeper league) will be Acuna, Soto and Jimenez.
Keith Law: That seems good.

Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.

John: Is the whole, “It’s the water” thing true when it comes to why New York pizza is awesome and Delaware pizza sucks?
Keith Law: The water thing is bullshit.

Joe: Scherzer has given up twice as many HRs as Nola. Is this, and should it be, a significant factor in determining WAR?
Keith Law: It’s not in B-R’s formulation. Theirs is based on runs allowed – a run is a run.

Jake: Keith, several KC prospect sites i follow portray Kahlil Lee as a potential “5 tool guy”…is this the case?
Keith Law: That’s not wrong. He can show you enough of all five that you could argue that, but I think he’ll end up more an average runner.

Hank: What’s the holdup on declaring Victor Victor Mesa a FA?
Keith Law: Has he been cleared by OFAC? That’s out of MLB’s control.

Brent : Hi Keith, hoped you enjoyed your time in Indy during GenCon. Curious if you made any food stops during your visit? Thanks.
Keith Law: Milktooth twice, Izzy’s once (i had the shrimp cocktail and couldn’t feel my face), and the rest from all those great food trucks.

Jo-Nathan: Why hasn’t Houston moved Tony Kemp to 2B, and just played Marwin in the OF; Kemp just doesn’t seem to have a lot of range in the OF.
Keith Law: Kemp was really bad at 2b as an amateur too.

ck: There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins’ fire sale – from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible – would you agree? Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can’t pretend they’re in a position to win soon.
Keith Law: Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

Scott: What was your initial impressions of Matt Chapman as a prospect? I feel like his ability to make contact has been a hugely pleasant surprise
Keith Law: You are spot on. His K rate this year is 22.8% in the majors. He was at 28% or higher every stint in AA and AAA. That is the shocking part. I thought he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 70 power but a 40 hit tool at best because he struck out so often.

Chris: Mediterranean diet: (1) not worth the effort; (2) great idea, but cumbersome and expensive; or (3) all in?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any specific diet plans.

Chris: I’ve heard (er, read) you sing the praises of a good espresso maker before. But I’ve never really appreciated it until I went from drinking k-cups in the morning (I know, not really coffee) to making my own espresso and americanos with a Breville espresso maker. It was expensive to be sure, but life altering. So thanks for getting on that soapbox.
Keith Law: You should all listen to me on food and coffee just never on Chris Sale.

Chris: Hi Keith, I saw a few weeks ago or more that you said you were readin The English Patient. I never saw you review it and I was interested in your thoughts on. Thanks.
Keith Law: I really thought I wrote that up. Found it surprisingly dull and rambling. Couldn’t connect with any of the characters. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it?

Max: I know that you read HP to your daughter. My son is only seven months old, so I’ve got some time, but at what age did you start reading Sorcerer’s Stone to her?
Keith Law: She was 7 3/4. Of course 9 3/4 would have been more poetic but we didn’t want to wait.

Devil’s Advocate: Acuna did not help himself. Either he was guessing away and/or breaking ball or simply hasn’t learned to turn in because his reaction to the pitch was like a catcher crossed up on signs.
Keith Law: She was totally asking for it.

Brett: Why did your wife decide to stop doing her blog? I see you removed it.
Keith Law: Her call. She hadn’t updated it in a while. I’ve encouraged her to continue as I thought it helped her as she dealt with panic disorder (which is something I can only understand as an outsider, having dealt with that only intermittently).

Jimmay: Having read so many award winning books, are there any authors whose entire catalog you’d like to read?
Keith Law: I do that quite a bit. I’ve got two Graham Greene books left. I think I read all of Vonnegut’s works except his final novel.

Chris: I’ve always been a big Plawecki fan. Love the build and think he’s just an all-around decent catcher (which is fine). Let him start next year, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Sean: Keith, have you read “It Can’t Happen Here” by Sinclair Lewis? I’m reading it now and well, I just can’t even. My fear is that with all of this hope concerning the mid-terms it’ll end up a vast disappointment for the reality-based community
Keith Law: I read and reviewed it in 2011, and reposted it in March of 2016 when it became clear what was happening.

Lee: After this debacle of a presidential administration is over, how do we change the minds/ attitudes of 35% of our electorate that believes facts/science don’t matter? That’s an awful lot of people to just write off.
Keith Law: We can’t. Denialism is extremely tough to undo.

JR: If you made it your full time job, do you think you could win $$ betting MLB (as much as you currently make annually)
Keith Law: No. that’s like trying to play the stock market.

Nick: One pizza recommendation. If you like Neapolitan-style, you should try Naples Street Food the next time you are on Long Island, in Franklin Square. They are fairly new and quite delicious. Very authentic.
Keith Law: Thanks. I never go to LI any more. I don’t have any family left there.

John: One study found limited evidence of a possible increase in one type of cancer from glyphosate, but could no rule out study bias, confounding variables, etc. If we used that standard anyone who gets cancer and ate McDonald’s french fries has a case.
Keith Law: Exactly. But juries don’t understand the scientific method; something like half of American adults don’t understand that the “theory” of evolution is proven, not “only a theory.”

Lee: I know you’ve recently read the Hyperion books by Dan Simmons. Why do you think he’s not more well known? He’s written some fantastic stuff in many different genres.
Keith Law: Genre fiction is disdained by the broader literary community.

Dan: “feel for the game”? I *think* I know what you mean … or do I? Lack of baserunning mistakes a tangible sign of this? But if you personally see a player just once/twice, you wouldn’t see this, necessarily. That info would come from scouts?
Keith Law: I can see this stuff by seeing a player once or twice, but I’ve been watching players for my job for something like 15 years now.

Mac: Do you think the top players will bow out of Jupiter again this year? This is a disturbing trend.
Keith Law: The timing of that event is terrible for pitchers. But the team USA 18U stuff is right afterwards, so if you’re bailing on one, you’re probably out for both.

Tracy: Third book question for me: I think you have a Carson McCullers book in your top 100. Do you recommend any more of her works?
Keith Law: That’s the only one I liked (The Heart is a Lonely Hunter).

Anthony: Will Estevan Florial ever show the plate discipline to access his tools
Keith Law: I think it’s very unlikely. His ability to pick up spin was nil last year when I saw him.

Chris: what terribly unhealthy food do you have trouble resisting?
Keith Law: Ice cream. Oreos. Also ice cream with Oreos.

Dan: The lyric at the top reminded me of something that drives me crazy: deluxe versions of classic albums. If I tell Spotify or iTunes to play “Rumours,” I don’t want two extra songs tacked onto the end. Can I get an amen?
Keith Law: Amen. And usually I want the studio version, not the live one.

Jakob: Bigger travesty: clams or pineapple on pizza? (I would rather eat a shoe than either.)
Keith Law: I’ve never had pizza with pineapples on it, because I’m not a savage.

snood: Keith! this is the first time I’ve recognized your opening song quote.
Keith Law: I drove down to see my family in VA this weekend, and as I passed through Silver Spring, MD, I put on Fleetwood Mac’s The Dance (one of my favorite live albums ever).

Evan: Always read about reliever concerns with Dylan Cease. Are they mostly abated given his progress this season? Does have project toward the top of a rotation?
Keith Law: He’s looked much better overall this year, and he’s stayed healthy too. I’m a buyer again after waffling a little last year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for reading. My Insider post on Baz, Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers is now up. I should be back again next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ August 15, 2018
→ By keith

Top 55 pizzerias in the U.S., ranked.

I’ve updated this list for the first time since the original version went up three years ago, and again, I expect this will start quite a few debates.

I adore all kinds of pizza – New York-style, Neapolitan-style (thin crust, wet center), Roman-style (also thin-crust but with a cracker-like crust), Sicilian, coal-fired, wood-fired, whatever. Except “deep dish,” which is just a bread casserole and which I actively dislike. I try to find good artisan pizzerias everywhere I travel, and I’ve hit just about all of the most highly-regarded places in Manhattan and Brooklyn too. I grew up on Long Island, eating by the slice and folding as I did so, but a couple of trips to Italy convinced me of the merits of those very thin crusts and superior toppings. We’re the beneficiaries of a huge boom in high-end pizza joints in this country, and while I haven’t tried all of the good ones, I’ve been to enough to put together a ranking of the 55 best that I’ve tried. There is, I admit, a bias to this list – I’ve tried more places in greater Phoenix than any other metro area other than New York – and I’m sure I’ll get some yelling over where I put di Fara or Paulie Gee’s, but with all of that out of the way, here’s how I rank ’em.

(I’ve removed two entries that closed since the last ranking, but if I missed another one, please put it in the comments.)

1. Pizzeria Bianco, Phoenix
2. Kesté, New York
3. Motorino, New York
4. Roberta’s, Brooklyn
5. Una Pizza Napoletana, New York (relocated from San Francisco)
6. Pizzeria Vetri/Osteria, Philadelphia
7. Frank Pepe’s, New Haven
8. del Popolo, San Francisco
9. Garage Bar, Louisville
10. Pizzeria Mozza, Los Angeles
11. Pizzeria Lola, Minneapolis
12. cibo, Phoenix
13. Lucali, Brooklyn
14. Forcella, New York
15. Pizzeria Stella, Philadelphia
16. Spacca Napoli, Chicago
17. Paulie Gee’s, Brooklyn
18. Don Antonio by Starita, New York
19. Pizzaiolo, Oakland
20. ‘Pomo, Phoenix
21. Brigantessa, Philadelphia
22. Marta, New York
23. Ribalta, New York
24. flour + water, San Francisco
25. Totonno’s, Brooklyn
26. Federal Pizza, Phoenix
27. La Piazza al Forno, Glendale, AZ
28. Via Tribunali, New York/Seatte
29. Il Cane Rosso, Dallas
30. Antico, Atlanta
31. Ravanesi, Concordville, PA
32. City House, Nashville
33. Tarry Lodge, Port Chester, New York
34. Desano, Nashville
35. Grimaldi’s, Phoenix
36. Jon & Vinny’s, Los Angeles
37. Timber Pizza, Washington, DC
38. Di Fara, Brooklyn
39. All-Purpose, Washington, DC
40. Il Bosco, Scottsdale, AZ
~~41. Co., New York~~ (closed February 2018)
42. Rubirosa, New York
43. Punch Pizza, St. Paul
44. Toro, Durham
45. Craft 64, Scottsdale, AZ
46. Harry’s Bar, Miami, FL
47. 800 Degrees, Los Angeles
48. Firestarter, Dennis, MA
49. Forno 301, Phoenix
50. Dolce Vita, Houston
51. Stella Rosa, Santa Monica
52. Grimaldi’s, Brooklyn
53. Basic, San Diego
54. Nicoletta, New York (closed as of 1/2019)
55. Taconelli, Philadelphia

There’s a long list of pizzerias I still need (okay, want, but where I’m concerned pizza is a need) to try, so they’re not on the list: Razza in Jersey City, Apizza Scholls in Portland, Area Four near Boston, 2 Amy’s in DC (temporarily closed), Menomale in DC, Sottocasa in Brooklyn, al Forno in Providence, Mani Osteria in Ann Arbor, Vero in Cleveland, Iggie’s in Baltimore, and more. It’s a good time to be a pizza lover, and unless you have to be gluten-free, how could you not love pizza?

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: pizza, rankings

→ August 13, 2018
→ By keith

The Fall of Hyperion.

Dan Simmons’ Hugo-winning novel Hyperion is one of my favorite science fiction novels ever, a totally unexpected epic story that creates a new universe in a distant hyper connected future and gives the reader five absolutely fascinating character backstories … but doesn’t give the reader any kind of resolution. The five people in question have all traveled to the world of Hyperion, a planet at the edges of the dominant galactic federation, about to be threatened by the invading Ousters, to journey to a portion of Hyperion inhabited by a mysterious and deadly creature known as the Shrike, who lives among the Time Tombs where entropy goes through the roof and time itself moves in inexplicable ways. The nature of the Shrike, the outcome of their journeys, the potential for war between the global confederation and the Ousters – these are all left hanging at the end of Hyperion. It’s still so powerfully written, with erudite prose and meticulously and thoughtfully crafted characters that I could easily recommend the book as a one-off read, even with its cliffhanger ending; but I concede I still wanted to know what would happen to some of those characters and what on earth the Shrike was.

Simmons returned to the story in The Fall of Hyperion, which breaks the plot up into multiple threads, one of which is narrated by a ‘cybrid’ who is the reincarnated consciousness of the poet John Keats, but also provides the reader with a more conventional finish to the story. The series of novels in this universe continues, but you can read these two book as a diptych and get a complete self-contained story. And I think that might be enough for me for now; Simmons’ writing is wonderful, but I’m not driven to get back to this universe the way I have been with some others.

The five pilgrims on Hyperion are as we left them, running out of time, stymied by the very forces who helped them reach the Time Tombs, and in perpetual fear of the bizarre creature who stalks them but whose intentions are entirely unclear. The pilgrims have a purpose in the passion play at work here – the Keats cybrid is a rather obvious Christ surrogate – but that purpose, beyond the sheer opening of the Time Tombs, is unknown to all of them. Simmons layers on top of this the greater question of war between the federation of humanity, aided by the sentient and independent artificial intelligence unit called the Core, and the Ousters, whose goal is also unknown beyond mere territorial conquest. The CEO of the ‘good guys’ is Meina Gladstone, a woman surrounded by men who doubt her, with scarcely any support from the politicians below her, and with her own personal interest in the movements of the pilgrims.

That combination of stories along with the need to just wrap the dang thing up meant that The Fall of Hyperion didn’t have the same sort of narrative greed as its predecessor, even though the prose remains superb, replete with references to 19th and early 20th century English poetry, because of the fractured nature of the narrative itself. Only in the last few chapters does Simmons spend more time in each location before shifting focus, and that’s because by that point in the book the stories are converging. The most riveting of the pilgrims’ stories, that of Sol Weintraub and his daughter Rachel, who is aging in reverse after her visit to the Time Tombs, remains so – but it’s also fairly easy to see what her role in the greater drama will be, and that she’s not going to die even though Sol and the other pilgrims, who all become emotionally invested in her survival in a beautiful flourish of writing from Simmons, believe she may.

Saying that The Fall of Hyperion doesn’t live up to its predecessor is not a criticism, or even necessarily a measure of disappointment. I wanted to finish the stories given in the first book, and I truly enjoy Simmons’ writing, so I had little doubt I’d find the sequel a great read. The first book was such an immersive read, one that reminded me of getting lost in Jonathan Strange or the Harry Potter novels, that no second book was going to live up to it.

Next up: Haruki Murakami’s Men Without Women.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, science fiction

→ August 11, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 8/11/18.

Just one Insider post this week, with scouting notes on some Yankees, Pirates, and Orioles prospects. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My Gen Con wrap-up is filed to Paste and I’ll update this post with the link when I get it.

You can sign up for my free email newsletter, which I’ve been sending out every ten days or so. And my book, Smart Baseball, is now just $9 on Kindle.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: Eater exposes the toxic workplace culture at Estela and other restaurants operated by chef Thomas Carter.
ProPublica exposes the unelected officials who are running the VA from the shadows of Mar-a-Lago.
Dale Murphy, former Atlanta Braves superstar and near-Hall of Famer, wrote the best piece I have seen to date on players’ social media gaffes, such as the extremely bigoted tweets from Josh Hader and Trea Turner. Murphy gets it, and speaks with the gravitas folks like me simply can’t muster. Over at Medium, Justin Megahan asked about the baseball culture that produces young men who think this shit is funny, although I think it’s not specific to baseball, but a function of societal views of masculinity.
A major investigation by liberal rag … um Forbes found that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross may have stolen over $120 million from investors, and lied about his assets and business activities on ethics disclosure forms when he was nominated. He’s still employed as of Saturday afternoon. Drain the swamp, indeed.
Twitter’s attempt to remain apolitical by refusing to ban conspiracy theorist and snake oil salesman Alex Jones is in itself a political choice. Parker Malloy writes here that Twitter still can’t figure out what kind of platform it wants to be; I don’t like the platform it has become.
WIRED‘s Issie Lapowsky writes that tech companies can’t win their war against Jones. That may be true, but doesn’t excuse inaction.
Also writing for WIRED, Clive Thompson offers thoughts on how to slow the spread of online hate. Doing nothing or disengaging are not good options.
Slate examines four hypotheses on why Twitter hasn’t moved against Jones yet, none of which is terribly satisfying.
Laura Ingraham went full white nationalist on Fox News this week; the Atlantic called her out on it, both in that her love of “country” seems to ignore this country’s founding principles, and that the population as a whole doesn’t agree with her.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the darling of the progressive left, but her increased media presence has just led to her producing a lot of bullshit answers, including the same kind of myth-repeating that characterizes the alt-right. Her policy proposals are at least interesting enough to discuss, but her sound bytes don’t reveal any depth to her ideas.
The Italian Senate is trying to delay the country’s new mandatory vaccination rules that arose in response to an ongoing measles epidemic in the supposedly developed country.
I’ve never had any use for PETA, and they reminded me why when they attacked Impossible Foods for testing its burgers on rats to satisfy federal safety requirements. If PETA’s interest is in improving the lives and welfare of animals … well, it’s not, as evidenced here. Their interest is in generating headlines. I guess they got their wish.
A couple in New Mexico appear to have stolen a $100 million painting just to keep it in their apartment, and perhaps stolen and sold other art works to finance a lifestyle beyond their apparent means. None of this was discovered until after their deaths, and family members still can’t believe it’s true.
The FDA has approved the first new malarial preventive drug in over 18 years.
One of my Senators, Tom Carper, wrote an editorial assailing the Trump administration’s plans to end emissions standards for cars. It’s going to take years to undo the environmental damage wrought by this regime.
Attorney General Jeff helped block an EPA action against Drummond Coal, one of his biggest donors, while he was still in the Senate, according to testimony in a recent bribery trial of a Drummond executive and a prominent Alabama law firm, both of whom had close ties to .
The sugar industry in Florida is under attack now for its role in pollution that is feeding toxic algae blooms; they’ve also got a long history of labor rights abuses and using tariffs to restrict sugar imports and raise consumer prices. The Florida GOP has historical ties to Big Sugar, and one leading gubernatorial candidate, Adam Putnam, has taken over $8 million in contributions from Big Sugar and its PACS.
Mike Salk, program director for ESPN Seattle 710 and longtime host of the Brock & Salk show, as well as a friend of mine, wrote about how Jim Abbott helped inspire him after an accident damaged his hand at age 12.
The online editorial comics site The Nib has a Kickstarter for them to start a print version of the publication. Some of the best editorial cartoonists online have appeared in the Nib or will appear in the magazine, including Matt “We Should Improve Society Somewhat” Bors.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: alabama, baseball, environment, florida, health, links, science, social media, stick to baseball, the swamp, vaccines

→ August 10, 2018
→ By keith

Century Spice Road.

When reviewing anything – books, movies, TV shows, and, yes, board games – it’s often too easy to describe something by comparing it to another more familiar title, or to say it’s a combination of this title and that title. Come to think of it, that comes up quite often in baseball too – readers and especially TV/radio hosts often ask me “who does this prospect remind you of?” I generally don’t like to answer those questions, because I find those comparisons too facile and often not very revealing – you lose a lot of nuance, and the comparison becomes an anchor point for whoever is listening or reading. If I tell you such-and-such a pitcher reminds me a lot of Roy Halladay, you’re not going to think of anything but Roy Halladay – and any further elucidation comes in the form of a negative statement, like “he’s Roy Halladay but not X.”

So now I’m going to violate everything I just said earlier – Century Spice Road is really a lot like Splendor, in a good way. It has one significant twist in the mechanics that make it a great game for people who like Splendor (and really, if you don’t like Splendor, I’m not sure if we can be friends) but want something a little different. Splendor is a shade more elegant, and gets points for bringing this general mechanical framework to the table, but Century Spice Road is perfect if you’ve decided you want something similar to Splendor but not exactly the same.

Century Spice Road is the first part of a game trilogy from Emerson Matsuuchi (Reef, Volt), the second part of which, Century Eastern Wonders, was out at Gen Con last week, with part three due out in 2019. The first two games can apparently be combined into a single game called Sand & Sea, which I will try out when I get my copy of Eastern Wonders.

Spice Road’s theme is a familiar one in the tabletop world – I’ve lost count of how many games involve merchants trading spices – while the rules are quite brief and simple. Players will collect spice cubes in four colors (turmeric, safran, cardamom, and cinnamon), and try to trade them in for bonus cards that can be worth 8 to 19 points depending on the cube costs. Players collect those cubes by playing cards that allow them to just take two or three cubes form the supply, and, more frequently, by playing upgrade cards that allow them to trade in some combination of cubes for another combination of cubes that is more valuable. (It’s not a zero-sum game; you’re trading with the market, which apparently is full of merchants who suck at math.) The cubes’ values are ordered, with turmeric the least valuable and cinnamon the most. Those values are reflected on all of the upgrade cards and on the bonus cards, so cards that require more cinnamon and cardamom cubes will be worth more points.

On a turn, a player can play a card from his/her hand, take a card from the supply, claim a bonus card with the appropriate cubes, or ‘rest’ to pick back up all cards s/he has played to the table. The queue of cards to take works with the same mechanic as many other games, notably Small World, where the leftmost (top) card in the stack is free, and you pay one cube of any color for each card you skip over to take another one, placing each cube on the card you’ve skipped. Sometimes that’s still a great play – your cube can only hold ten cubes at the end of your turn – and sometimes it’s smart to take a card from the queue because of the cubes other players have left on it.

The leftmost card in the stack of bonus cards rewards the player who claims it with a gold coin, and the next card to its right is worth a silver coin, although both piles of coins are limited to twice the number of players in that game. Game-end scoring is simple: add up the points on your bonus cards, take three points for each gold coin and one for each silver, and add one point for each non-turmeric (yellow) spice cube left on your caravan. When one player obtains his/her fifth bonus card (4-5 players) or sixth (2-3 players), players finish that round and score. Games take 30-40 minutes, turns are short, and the rules are very quick for new players to learn. It really is Splendor-ish, but with a little more engine-building to it, where instead of acquiring cards that give you permanent jewel/cube values, you play upgrade cards to boost the cubes you have. It’s a great lightweight game that capitalizes on the familiarity of an earlier game without feeling too repetitive.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board games, boardgames, family games, family strategy games

→ August 9, 2018
→ By keith

So You Want to Talk About Race.

When a TV channel decided to put together a panel on the Atlanta Braves’ 1990 teams on Hall of Fame weekend last month, they chose a set of criteria – members of the organization from that time period who were also inducted or selected for the Baseball Hall of Fame by the writers or one of the Hall’s committees – that produced a panel of six men, all of whom are white. The 1990s Braves were a typically diverse MLB team for the era; about 20-24% of their roster in any given year comprised players of color, some of whom were crucial to the team’s success. Fred McGriff’s arrival in a mid-1993 trade spurred one of the most furious second half runs we’ve ever seen, where Atlanta overtook San Francisco to win the division after falling nine games back in mid-July. David Justice’s home run accounted for the only run in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series, the only championship won by Atlanta in the 1990s. Andruw Jones became the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game in 1996, then became the second player ever to homer in his first two World Series at bats, and his defense was a big part of Atlanta’s run of division titles for the rest of that decade. Given that those Atlanta teams depended on the contributions of players of color, and that diversity improves outcomes in education, workplace productivity, and decision-making, the choice of criteria that excluded all persons of color harmed the end product.

This panel took place right after I had finished listening to the audio version of Ijeoma Oluo’s book So You Want to Talk About Race, which is part polemic, part plea, and part guide for people of all political and philosophical beliefs who want to talk or even think about issues of race and diversity. She’s talking about racism, yes, but more broadly, she’s talking about race and how we can have better, more productive conversations about race, and racial bias, and similar types of bias like those around gender, place of origin, or sexual orientation. Ojuo is a queer black woman whose father is Nigerian, so she is able to fill the book with personal anecdotes, but she also draws substantially on others’ stories and on scholarship in the areas of racism and diversity.

The book’s chapters are provocative, by design, even though the subject matter within each often veers significantly from the initial questions. Chapters include “Why can’t I say the N-word?,” “Is police brutality really about race?,” and “Why can’t I touch your hair?,” all of which contain stories that range from appalling to horrifying, and grab the reader’s attention from the outset by the shocking nature of the titles. (The hair thing really flabbergasted me, but I asked two African-American women I know well enough to ask about the subject, and both said yes, they are frequently asked by strangers if someone can touch their hair – or have strangers touch their hair without asking.) I’m sure most people inclined to pick this book up would have the same reaction to such chapter titles as I did – because you’re not black, yes it is, and because it’s not your body – but Oluo uses those as departure points for broader questions of how society others people of color and ignores systemic or structural forces that continue to hold back nonwhite members of society on both social and economic fronts.

Other chapters get right to the meat of the subject, such as those on intersectionality and the school-to-prison pipeline, as well as the one titled “Why am I always being told to ‘check my privilege?'” Oluo is comfortable making the reader uncomfortable; she even acknowledges this by telling how often she’s been criticized for talking too much or too vocally about race and racial bias. Some people want to believe we live in a post-racial society or that we are raising our children to be “blind to color.” The systemic issues behind police brutality against citizens of color or the high discipline and incarceration rates of young black men are not gone, or going away any time soon, and Oluo explains just how pervasive they are (that black students are far more likely to be suspended than white students, three times as likely for boys and six times as likely for girls).

As for privilege, Oluo doesn’t hold back. You can see some of the same ideas that appear in her book in this long essay she wrote in March of 2017, in which she points out that people who ‘woke up’ to the existence of systemic and structural racism after the election of Donald Trump were, in fact, experiencing the result of privilege, because Americans of color deal with it and its residues every day. (Resumes with white-sounding names get more callbacks for interviews than those with nonwhite-sound names. Scare quotes may apply.) But Oluo’s message to white readers is clear: We are late, and we have contributed to the backsliding in the rights of minorities, but we can still help if we are willing to accept our own failings and those of society. She wrote in that essay to white readers, “you can help in ways that I cannot,” and the exhortation appears again and again in the book, with countless suggestions and calls to action, questions you can ask at work, at your children’s schools, of your elected representatives, in formal and informal social groups.

There is much work to be done, and it will require the cooperation and effort of populations who are not adversely affected by such biases, conscious or structural. If you have privilege and a platform, which I do, you can use it to speak out when you see active or passive bias – lack of representation, dog-whistling, micro-aggressions, stereotype threat. You can go to school board or PTA meetings and ask about the percentage of faculty members who are persons of color, or whether the curriculum accurately reflects nonwhite cultural experiences, or how students of color are disciplined – and whether that’s different from how white students are. You can push for laws that might reduce incidents of police violence against citizens of color, like requiring body cameras, or to change or repeal laws that do not mention race but have had a disparate impact on black communities, like fighting to decriminalize drug possession and to expunge records of those non-violent crimes. You can push for greater diversity at work, not for ‘tokenism,’ but because it will make you and your company more productive. Most of all, Oluo urges readers, you can’t just pretend this stuff isn’t real. It’s everywhere because it is writ into the fabric of our society, a society that is a mere six generations away from enslaving black people, two generations away from denying them basic civil rights, one generation away from open discrimination in the workplace, and still today in a world where Americans of color, especially those who are black, face insidious, subtle discrimination at the workplace, in church, on the streets, in schools, and anywhere else they might dare to be black.

So yes, I do want to talk about race. I want to try to do something to make the world better when it comes to race, bias, and diversity. I believe that world will make us all better off – we’ll be happier and more productive people. I also believe that I am privileged, and that I’ve benefited from the same kind of structures that Oluo points out have held back people of color, because most of these arenas are a zero-sum game – college admissions, employment, etc. If a black candidate is rejected for his/her race, or is seen as less qualified because s/he grew up in disadvantaged conditions and lacked access to better education or learning resources, the beneficiary will more than likely be a white person. Oluo’s book encouraged me to say something when I saw tweets about that panel – not that it was “racist” per se, but that it excluded persons of color, and thus was not representative – and to think more about how I can make some small difference when it comes to race and bias in my work and in my life.

One aside: There was one section of one chapter in So You Want to Talk About Race that rang false for me – the portion of the chapter on cultural appropriation (an uncomfortable read for me, as someone who consumes a lot of culture without thinking about this question) where Oluo discusses rap music. Rap originated as a black genre of music, just as jazz and the blues did, and was later co-opted by the musical mainstream, which has meant white artists also use the form, and white record executives and promoters and agents all profit from it. Whether a musical form, essentially rhythmic poetry, can truly be appropriated is a worthwhile question to debate; is it comparable to a structure like a fugue or an aria, a template to which the artist must then apply his or her own creative energies? Oluo lost me, however, with claims that this assimilation has led to white rappers finding easy success in the field despite showing less talent than black rappers who struggle to find an audience. The claim itself is entirely subjective; judging what rappers have more talent would probably bog down in an argument over what exactly defines talent in rap, whether it is technical skill or lyrical ingenuity or musical innovation or something else, but even more troubling to me is that the claim appears not to be true. A few white rappers have found enormous commercial and critical success. Eminem is the best example, but he was the protégé of Dr. Dre (who is African-American), and Dre produced Eminem’s biggest albums and released them through his Aftermath imprint. (For example, The Marshall Mathers LP was produced by Dre, The 45 King, Mel-Man, and the Bass Brothers; three of those five men are African-American.) You could count the number of white rappers to have significant commercial success on two hands – the Beastie Boys, Vanilla Ice, Macklemore – while African-American rappers, many of whom seem (to my subjective ears) to have had success because of who produced them rather than their own talents, continue to dominate the singles and album charts. I understand what Oluo was trying to say here, but I don’t think the reality of the marketplace bears out her specific criticisms.

Next up: Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World by Cal Newport.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: african-american history, american history, highly recommended, non-fiction, racism

→ August 9, 2018
→ By keith

Klawchat 8/9/18.

My latest Insider post has my scouting notes on some Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates prospects, plus thoughts on an umpshow I witnessed in Trenton on Tuesday.

Keith Law: People give your ears, so I be sublime. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Remember how excited you were as a kid when you opened a pack of baseball cards and saw a Doug Harvey or an Eric Gregg in there?
Keith Law: I have a complete set from 1985. I think it’s worth like three or four dollars now.

Andrew: So Jayson Werth said this, in his diatribe about how “nerds” are killing baseball: “… I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.” Do people really misunderstand the purpose of analyzing data to this degree? Isn’t this the baseball equivalent of science-deniers discrediting evolution because “I’ve never seen a monkey turn into a human”?
Keith Law: I knew Werth a little in Toronto and was kind of shocked to see him go full denialist like that. He was one of the friendliest players to me at a time when I was quite an oddball due to my role (and probably due to my personality). I can only assume he’s just frustrated that his career ended before he was ready … but he made a lot of money because those same ‘nerds’ he decried pointed out how valuable he really was.

Meeeeeee: Hey, Keith… Given that Bellinger was never a huge power prospect in the minors, is it likely that his 2017 HR total was an aberration and that this year’s output is more likely to be what he produces in the future (with more batting average)?
Keith Law: Bellinger was always a huge power prospect.

Zach: Is Lucas Sims similar to two of the Reds’ existing former top prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed?
Keith Law: No, I’d put him behind those guys today or if I were trying to rank them all based on where they were as prospects.

Matt: Dark Helmet is tweeting about “Space Force all the way!” Not like there’s anything important to tackle like climate change, fires in California, Flint, refugees, etc.
Keith Law: I can only assume the Gorilla Channel aired a marathon of V yesterday.

Scott: I will be in Pittsburgh next month (yes, going to PNC as part of trip) and looking for some restaurant recommendations if you have any good ones, thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in almost ten years. I believe two of my old favorites are still open though – Pamela’s (greasy spoon breakfast place) and Spice Island Tea House.

Rich Bower: Brendan McKay has looked great pitching – does he project more power on the batting side? Thanks as always!
Keith Law: I’ve talked to three scouts who’ve seen him recently. All have him rated very highly as a pitcher and say he should give up hitting just to focus on the mound now. Not that he couldn’t hit but he’s farther behind that way.

RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?
Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.

JR: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s been great in some games this year and awful in others?
Keith Law: He’s been extremely homer-prone at home, which is unsurprising from the ballpark but still bad (16 in 52.2 IP!). The part that shocks me is that he’s walked so many guys, and weirdly enough is doing that more on the road (probably a sample-size fluke, but still, why?). He was always a command guy where you hoped the stuff was enough to make him more than a 4/5.

Bren: Do any of the more powerful FO executives like Theo have any kind of decision making power written into their contracts? The Mets desperately need to hire a strong GM/VP, but is there any way they can ensure Jeff Wilpon doesn’t end up undermining them constantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I haven’t seen any of those contracts, either. I can imagine that the Cubs know that if Theo were to get undermined by one of the Ricketts’ kids (when they’re not busy propping up the kakistocracy), he’d quit.

Rick Sanchez: What kind of power ceiling do you see for Bo Bichette? He hasn’t produced many homers throughout his minor league career, but I’ve seen his power rated as high as 70.
Keith Law: I don’t know who rated him there – no scout I’ve talked to, certainly. I’ve seen Bichette a ton since HS, and I could see a future 70 hit tool, but with 55 power.

Stan: Have you ever been approached with an opportunity to teach at the university level? You are an Ivy League grad, have worked successfully in a high level industry, are very well written and spoken and, most importantly, can find racism in even the most benign of situations.
Keith Law: I’ve never understood privileged people like you who think there’s value in claiming there isn’t racism in situations where other people believe it exists. If you can’t see the microaggression in, say, publicly questioning whether a Dominican prospect has lied about his age, or why a panel of six members of the same organization from the same time period that excludes all players of color (when that team included current employee Fred McGriff) poses huge problems of representation and signals to people of color that their views aren’t valued, well, maybe sit this one out.

TC: Is there still hope for Rosario becoming an impact player? .273 OBP in 153 career games suggests he has a long way to go.
Keith Law: wow, 153 whole games.

NYTT: What’s the next step in Ian Anderson’s development? Where do you see him settling in when he gets to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Just promoted to AA yesterday. I assume you’re asking his ceiling – I think a #2 starter, maybe more. Heard nothing but great things from his recent outings.

brian: simple rule change — only the crew chief can throw out a player… if crew chief sees player arguing balls and strikes or throwing at a batter – so be it… will at least limit the umpshow!
Keith Law: I think last night’s incidents with Soto and Justin Turner highlights the problem. If Soto gets tossed for calmly pointing out that a call was wrong – you have to see Jerry Layne’s postgame comments, it’s so clear that he values the umpires’ egos over getting the call right I wanted to throw up just reading them – while Turner acts as he did and doesn’t get run, well, we have a pretty serious problem of inconsistency.

Andy E: Hey Keith, I just have to ask why you are such a nerd and love being such a NERD?!?!?!?!

Actually no real question, just wanted to say I love your work.
Keith Law: Thanks. I am a nerd and do love it.

Scott: Luis Garcia continues to rake in High-A at 18 years old. If he finishes out this year in similar fashion, does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect heading into next year? Or is his ceiling not that high?
Keith Law: He’s certainly a top 100 guy. He’s blown past Antuna, who got 3x the money and was the higher ceiling guy, but whose body has gone totally south on him.

Billy: If the season ended today, who is your NL MVP, and who do you think would actually win?
Keith Law: deGrom. No clue who’d win.

Nick: Have you seen Jake Holmes (Phillies ‘17 11th rounder) this year? Numbers look good and wanted to see if your observations match up.
Keith Law: I haven’t. He’s 20 in short-season.

brian: Your ESPN brother posted an interesting article today that wins on a year to year basis are worthless BUT a good marker for a career review… any thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not. Ask Bert Blyleven.

A big dumb idiot: Danny Jansen has been raking for 2 seasons now, but I’m unsure of the consensus on his defence. Could you let me know what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: Playable.

John: Royals farm system… Still bad? Terrible? Any names to keep an eye on as potential ‘next wave’ of talent players?
Keith Law: Outside of the 2018 draft, it’s bottom 2 or 3. They added a huge infusion of moderate-ceiling but high-probability talent, which is kind of what they needed most after some high picks used on prep arms haven’t worked out.

James: In the perpetually ongoing battle to shorten game length, why not limit the number of warm-up pitches? This is done quite effectively in Japan, and honestly, while the time difference isn’t going to be significant, it feels like an incredibly low-impact change to make.
Keith Law: The only warm-up pitches that might affect game length are those thrown by relievers when they enter the game. You could argue that those pitchers should be warmed up already. The rest are largely just filling time during ever-longer commercial breaks.

John: I’ve been curious about player development and stolen bases lately. Is there a reason that teams don’t have all their prospects running frequently in the minors? Even for slow guys, but especially the fast ones, it seems like it would help them develop better “baserunning intuition” and perfect skills like picking up pitcher moves and sliding, at no real cost. Can always have them tone it down when they get to MLB.
Keith Law: It hurts the hitters.

G: I enjoyed today’s write-up on prospects, but am mostly interested in your thoughts on Ke’Bryan Hayes. You mention his 3 hard-hit balls–has he made the swing changes necessary for future power?
Keith Law: I have never had a big problem with his swing. He’s just been more of a high-contact guy – and I think the Pirates preach that over power.

Chuck: What do you make of Seattle’s scouting purge? Are those jobs going to be filled?
Keith Law: That report that they let 10 scouts go was wrong. They did let six scouts go, which still isn’t great, but don’t you have to get that number right before reporting it? My understanding is that they’re not reducing their total number of scouts.

tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal!
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.

Nick: Why wouldn’t the Indians try to increase Yandy Diaz’ launch angle? With his approach, exit velo, and defense, he seems like a potential star if he doesn’t hit 60% of his balls on the ground.
Keith Law: He’s always hit the ball hard when I’ve seen him. Some guys can’t make that adjustment or don’t want to try.

Kevin w : Why does our country spend so much on defense when we have no border disputes…couldn’t this money be spent on education, healthcare, and programs like social security?
Keith Law: Defense spending is never questioned. If you do, then you hate America.

romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible.
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.

tom: I know he’s only 17, but is Wander Franco a guy you see in the majors at 19, like a Juan Soto. What’s his power ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes. 25+ homer guy. I’ll be shocked if he is still on the minors on the day he turns 20, barring injury.

Hungry: I’ll keep trying to get this answered…are there any moral issues with cooking shows? I love to watch them, but also can’t help but feel bad for the all the wasted food that could be used for better purposes than to watch a judge take a few bites for our entertainment.
Keith Law: I don’t know why you keep asking when I’ve declined to answer for … a year? I have no idea what happens to that food. We don’t know if it’s “wasted” or consumed by the crew or donated. It’s an unanswerable question.

Mike: Bryan Reynolds is getting on base at his career normal level, but he is slugging well below his career norm. Do you attribute that to his hamate bone injury at the beginning of the season? Something more? I know you just saw Altoona, do you think he can be an every day player? Thanks!
Keith Law: The hamate doesn’t help but he’s also never shown the same game power in pro ball as he has in BP or in college.

Bryan: What kind of player is Dereck Rodriguez going forward? Is he just a great story or a legit mid rotation guy for the future?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Dude’s been extremely lucky – 4 HR allowed in 73 innings with his flyball rate isn’t going to last.

romorr: DL Hall should finish the year in A+, he is on fire his last 10 or so starts. Has he done enough to sneak into the top 100?
Keith Law: He was mentioned in my midseason prospects update.

John: Is Joe Simpson the worst or The. Worst.
Keith Law: He’s had a bad week. He’s also taken some shots at me over the years, so perhaps I’ll just let his words speak for him.

Nick: Any potential star position players (regardless of risk) in the Phillies system? They have the pitching but I’m skeptical about their position players.
Keith Law: I think Ortiz has a star bat but needs a position. 1B might work.

Joules: Thanks for the chats. What would you be asking for in return for Inciarte?
Keith Law: It’s whatever the market will return. He’s surplus now. They missed their ideal window to deal him.

Frank : Which WAR do you prefer, baseball reference or fangraphs?
Keith Law: I look at both.

Chris: Klaw, who is your leader for AL ROY right now. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s Gleyber easily.

Kevin w : What do the reds need to do this offseason to be competitive in the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do something this offseason, but they need to figure out why their pitching prospects have fared so poorly in the majors or sometimes in AAA; and they need to get more out of Latin American scouting.

bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?
Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.

Jonathan: Is Nolan Gorman for real? The Cardinals seem to be really aggressive with him
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s aggressive given what he did in the Appy League and his raw power. Challenge him with better pitching; he’ll be better prepared for low-A next spring. Maybe he just had some draft-itis and is over it now that he’s signed.

Dana: Twelve K’s for CC Sabathia last night. How many more seasons does he need to pitch like this to be a HOFer?
Keith Law: He’s on the borderline already. Another two seasons like this would probably strengthen his case among the stat guys who argue for such players, myself included.

Jay: I was at the Nats game last night and was glad I paid to see Greg Gibson miss so many calls. Soto complaining was the culmination of many guys having an issue with Gibson.
Keith Law: Gibson had a horrible night calling balls and strikes. He should be better at his job.

Jerry: I find it interesting in that you expect umpires to put up with most of the abuse directed at them by players, even if the umpires themselves believe they are correct in their calls. Meanwhile, you summarily block anyone on social media with the gall to disagree with your opinions that are not always mainstream. Seems a bit contradictory.
Keith Law: Imagine being so stupid to think that these are equivalent. Being on social media is not my job, or part of my job, or even something ESPN requires of me. I don’t have to tolerate anything on there – and, dumbass, I only block people who are abusive. When people start swearing at me or calling me gay slurs or a see-you-next-tuesday, yeah, I’ll block them. And if Soto actually called Gibson one of those things, then he deserved to be ejected.

tim: Any concerns over Gore’s inconsistency in A ball this season, Keith? He seems to have one lights out start – then struggle. Still see him as a #1 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s 19 and has very little experience in pro ball.

Darnell: Is Peter Alonso’s future a DH? How do you like Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: I like Gimenez but don’t see an impact bat there. Alonso is probably 60/40 DH/1b for me.

Guest: Now that Senzel is out for the year, do you think the Reds will say “he needs time to rehab” as an excuse to get an extra year of control next year?
Keith Law: Actually giving him three weeks in the minors in April is the right business move. I’m fine with that. I’d love to see him in the majors ASAP, selfishly, but I get it.

John : San Francisco/Palo Alto dinner recommendations?
Keith Law: Cotogna, flour + water, never been to State Bird but I hear it’s amazing.

Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.
Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.

ZVN: Keith, you’ve been doing an exceptional job filling in for Buster on the BBT pod. I know you said you’re too lazy to do a pod every day, but would you ever be open to starting your own pod down the road? Doesn’t even have to be all about baseball. You’d definitely have a subscriber here. I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Thank you! I do enjoy my week as guest host each year.

Kevin w : Would monopoly make your top 1000 board games?
Keith Law: Yes assuming I just ranked every game I’ve ever played (which has to be something like 300 by now)

Aaron C.: How would YOU handle Jesus Luzardo? I’ve read elsewhere the A’s will shut him down when he reaches an (post-TJ surgery) innings cap. Would you let him throw his last, say, 12 innings in a couple of starts in Oakland?
Keith Law: I would probably shift him to a long relief sort of role so he can get a cup of coffee in September and help lengthen the big league staff. I do worry about the breaking ball being fringy for the majors, but this is how you find out.

john: Will Daz Cameron have the same power like his Dad?
Keith Law: I doubt that.

Kevin w : Betts the 2nd best player?
Keith Law: For me, yes.
Keith Law: Javy Baez being first, of course.

KC: Do you see the Royals Nicky Lopez as a MLB regular at SS, 2B, or neither.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a regular at SS, but the bat is probably good enough to play everyday somewhere.

Carlo: Thoughts on Deivi Garcia? Is there significant reliever risk there?
Keith Law: There is, given his size, but I believe he has very good spin rates on the FB and breaking ball, and the results are tremendous. Probably won’t see him till next year when he gets to Trenton.

romorr: What has happen to Cody Sedlock? Heard he was overworked in college.
Keith Law: He was badly overworked in college, and the O’s didn’t help matters after he signed. He’s never been right since then.

Wes: I know he’s far away, but does Vidal Brujan have enough hit tool to project as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: Pure hit tool makes him a big leaguer. Needs something else to profile as a regular.

squeeze bunt: I swing back and forth between thinking the country will be ok, and that everything is falling apart. Are we going to be ok as a country?
Keith Law: Although I am truly not a pessimist by nature, I think we have done enough damage internally that we will never be the same and will be worse off for years if not decades from what Trump and his followers have wrought.

Tommy: Hey Keith, love your chats. Who do you feel has the higher ceiling – Luzardo, Sheffield or Mize? Do you feel all are future #2’s or do you think one is in a seperate tier from the others?
Keith Law: Again, ranked all three guys here in my midseason rankings, with ceilings discussed.

Chris: Is Erik Swanson more of the righty version of Josh Rogers or Montgomery (not in style but in terms of MiL stats vs outlook)?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like 6th starter type.

Jon: Keith, do you think parents/Little League coaches will try to start coaching things like incline angle, spin rate or defensive shifts? How long would you think it would take for stuff like this to trickle down so that it could be done knowledgeably?
Keith Law: I think there are absolutely parents and youth coaches doing this crap already. They shouldn’t.

AM: I have a serious question. I’m not bipolar and I’m not depressed. I don’t think I have a mental disorder but there are times where I will randomly think I just want to literally kill myself and 3 seconds later that urge is gone. It doesn’t happen often maybe once every two weeks. Is this something I should be concerned about for my mental health?
Keith Law: Yes. You should absolutely go talk to a doctor about this. I’m happy to help people who reach out with mental health issues, but what you describe is too serious for me to try to tackle as a non-professional.

Denis: Have you heard any reporting on Julio Urias? Is he still capable of being a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Eric Longenhagen has seen him and reported that Urias’ velocity is way down. I said when Urias had the surgery that he was likely done.

John : Thoughts on Bryan Mata? High walk rate at hi-a, but still only 19
Keith Law: Big arm but reliever with that slot/delivery.

Chip: Any update on Victor Victor Victor Victor or whatever his name is?
Keith Law: Still not cleared. Also your prose is too prolix.

Chris: Any thoughts on Jeff McNeil? Still an org guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said he was an org guy. I don’t think he’s a significant prospect or a regular.

James: Has that cutter suddenly made Nathan Eovaldi a $12M guy? Is he worth even more than that?
Keith Law: He’s worth more. And it all seems very real.

PHS: If you’re Ross Atkins, do you attempt to trade Donaldson now for any kind of prospect return, or is it better to hold on to him and see what happens this winter? My meaning there is, should they consider a one-year offer at roughly the same salary as this year (as a rotating 3B/1B/DH?
Keith Law: You offer him, and if you don’t like the return, you wait till November and make the QO. There is no reason to hold on to him now if you get a decent offer.

Chris: You may have seen that Bon Appetit just named (the OG) Portland as food city of the year. You may need to come up, even though we are, as you said, above the arctic circle. (it is 86 here rn btw)
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in ages, too, but there’s not a great work reason when the Sea Dogs come near me so often (and they’re light on prospects right now).

Aaron: Seems there are very differing opinions on the strength of the jays farm system. Im surprised to see them ranked top 5 in a couple of rankings. Seems they are top heavy but once bichette and Vlad are promoted they likely are a bottom third system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not a top five system. That just isn’t credible.

Joe: Has your evaluation of Tyler O’Neill changed after his AAA performance this year?
Keith Law: No.

cm: I know you likely aren’t sure who will be #1 overall next year, but is this an up year (Harper type), down year (Beckham type), or in between year for the #1 overall pick?
Keith Law: Very down year.

brian: Didi Gregorius can’t hit a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Also swings at everything. EVERYTHING. You can get him out by pitching up and away and down and away. He had a great April – then every single pitcher saw the same thing and he hasn’t hit much since. Can the Yankee announcers stop referring to this as a “slump?” It;s not a slump. And Boone batting him 3rd or 4th everyday is just plain pandering to the left/right crowd.
Keith Law: Since May 1st: .246/.297/.397. I didn’t realize his OBP was that bad; he’s still walking a bit so I thought he was at least providing more value there. That’s bottom of the order shit right there.

BMosc: Clarke Schmidt. Projection?
Keith Law: I missed him by a day in Aberdeen; in college, I thought he was a huge injury risk because of the delivery, good to great stuff, real competitor, could throw strikes but would have trouble with command too. He blew out, not helped by misuse at SC, but as far as I know the delivery is the same.

Chris: over/under MLB Justin Dunn starts in 2019: 15 (im taking over w that tenuous mets staff)
Keith Law: I think/hope the over.

Bryce Harper: What do you think I get in free agency this year?
Keith Law: If you finish strongly, the way you’ve hit the last five weeks, you’ll still get a huge deal, some 8-year $200MM+ contract, but I think Machado is going to be the king of this market.

Joseph: Could you compare and contrast Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint?
Keith Law: Very different guys. The only things they have in common is that they’re RH and both pitch for Atlanta. I like both with Touki having the higher ceiling.

E J : Chance that Luis Patino makes your post/pre season top 100 ? How are his off speed pitches developing ?
Keith Law: Slim.

Mike: I know you had Jose Ramirez just outside of your top 100, but he wasnt too highly rated as a prospect by many. Why did so many overlook him?
Keith Law: Little guy who never showed anything remotely close to this kind of power potential.

Brett: Royals owner David Glass has been quoted recently indicating he believes Royals should be contending again by 2020. Was this a comment directed at the GM to avoid a long rebuild or an indication of a lack of awareness of the status of the organization and their talent?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s not going to happen. I can’t tell you what Glass had in mind.

Thom Yorke: When you say “backed up” do you mean regression? In terms of a prospect’s stuff being backed up.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what the term means.

Ben: Spice Island closed, unfortunately. But try BRGR, Spoon, or Morcilla!
Keith Law: well that sucks. Just shut the city down, then.

Aaron C.: Have you heard what, if any, MLB award vote you’ll have this year? Continuing the rich tradition of NL ROY?
Keith Law: I can only assume so. I don’t necessarily mind, since prospects is my thing, but I also wonder what’s motivating the pigeonholing.

Chris (Chicago): Keith, Mike Bates put out an interesting article the other day about the history of ticket prices in MLB and their potential effect on attendance today. The conclusion was that while baseball is in no sort of financial danger, there is a long-term consequence to the high-cost of tickets (including failing to create new fans). I was just curious about your thoughts on pricing? Is it something about which the league should be concerned enough to do something?
Keith Law: I think MLB teams price tickets rationally, to maximize revenues in the short term. If the league thinks as Mike does, that this hurts the game long term, then they might want to figure out how to subsidize lower-cost tickets in the bleachers or nosebleeds.

Brian: Deivi Grullon was once a prospect. He’s having a big AA year and the splits are fairly even. Is he on the prospect radar at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s terrible. He can really throw, but that’s about it.

Trey: Why the hell does Trump go after LeBron? I actually agree with some of his policies but why oh why does he do the dumbest shit and go after the most popular athlete in the US who is actually very impactful to his community?
Keith Law: I mean … you’re so close, Trey … it’s just … just reach a little bit father…

squeeze bunt: Do you have a way to measure quality of contact of someone in the Arizona league? For example, Xavier Edwards is hitting like 400, but is he legging out infield singles, or hitting solid line drives?
Keith Law: The teams may have some trackman data on that but otherwise you’d want to ask the scouts or coaches at those games. I won’t do any of that till the fall, when the season is over.

Sally: Is Juan Soto better than you imagined? MVP type ceiling?
Keith Law: Of course he is – if I’d imagined he’d do this, he would have been in my top 3 prospects this winter. MVP type ceiling.

Henry: Red Sox have Sale, Bogaerts, Martinez, Porcello, Kimbrel, Betts all becoming free agents in the next 2 seasons. It’s unlikely they sign them all. What do you think they do? Or should do?
Keith Law: You try to sign Betts and Bogaerts, the two youngest and the two position players on the list.

Todd: Thoughts on Yankees Luis Medina, Garrett Whitlock and Devi Garcia?”
Keith Law: Medina has enormous stuff (one scout told me he saw 100 mph, another saw him get knocked around and unable to finish one inning).
Keith Law: He’s got the highest ceiling of those three, but he’s also quite far away. I’ll try to see Whitlock soon but he was an SEC product overmatching younger A-ball hitters. His first AA start (in April) was a disaster.

Rob: Will you be doing a GenCon write-up? What was your favorite new game?
Keith Law: Yes it should go up today or tomorrow at Paste. No spoilers.

Ben: Between Willi Castro & Sergio Alcantra, do the Tigers have an everyday regular shortstop there? I think Wenceel Perez has the most upside, but is a ways off from the bigs.
Keith Law: I’m a big Castro fan. One of him or Alcantara should be a regular there.

Richard: Can Ryan Borucki stick as a back end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

E J : Is Quantrill struggling due to the lack of development with the breaking ball, the straightness of the fastball, all of the above ? Anything else ?
Keith Law: FB velocity hasn’t held up post-2016, and he doesn’t really get on top of the ball well enough or extend over his front side like he should..

Fred: Nobody can honestly back Urban Meyer at Ohio State, right? I mean how the hell could they value wins more than domestic violence victims? I’ve actually had people tell me that Urban is the victim in the whole thing… WHY? HOW?
Keith Law: Because football. I’ve got people in the queue here trying to argue that he did the right thing (just like Paterno truthers).

Dawg: David Bote, Phillip Ervin and Jeff McNeil all are hitting pretty well in small samples. Any hope that they can become solid regulars?
Keith Law: Bote has the best bat of the three.

Danny: Have you heard anything on Shervyn Newton? Apparently that Kingsport team is stacked
Keith Law: Yep, Dutch kid, signed for just $50K two years ago. Trained in Curacao. Great feel for the game, so I’m not shocked at the plate discipline, but he’s really hitting with some impact. That Kingsport team would be really fun to watch if I could figure out where Kingsport is.

addoeh: Regarding Werth, what FO person told him not to bunt against the shift? Don’t do it all the time but once in a while in the right situations would help.
Keith Law: Right? Wouldn’t any analytics people recommend doing that, if only as a game theory sort of response to the shift?

Gus Johnson: Is there a disconnect in the value of relievers? Good ones command a premium in the trade market but are don’t seem to be as valued in the FA market.
Keith Law: Those trades tend to be in-season and thus tactical moves for September/October.

Chris: Speaking of Wander Franco, can we get a definitive ranking of the Wander Francos?
Keith Law: Well the one in Tampa is a superstar and the others are not.

SeanE: Hi Keith. Not sure you and I would ever agree much in the political arena but just wanted to say I very much enjoy reading all your material, baseball and non baseball, alike. Do you agree however, that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten totally out of hand? What has happened to the days when politicians like Reagan and Tip O’Neill could sit down at the end of the day with a drink despite going to battle over policy issues.
Keith Law: I don’t agree. I think the current administration and the establishment wing of the GOP has adopted so many policies endemic to despotic regimes – the stuff Hannah Arendt documented in The Origins of Totalitarianism – that no rhetoric can condemn them strongly enough. Bothsidesism only makes the problem worse.

Trevor: Ankiel throwing 89 in an exhibition game. Do you take his comeback at 39 seriously? Could he get a ST invite or a minor league contract next year?
Keith Law: I’m absolutely rooting for him.

Keith: With no offense to my second cousin, I tell people I’m named after you. Who are you named for?
Keith Law: Nobody that I’m aware of, although my middle name is from my mother’s father, who died before I was born.

Brett: Not defending the level of defense spending, but maybe the reason for the lack of border disputes is correlated to how much we invest in our defense?
Keith Law: We have two borders and both are with countries with whom we have extensive, inextricable economic links. That might have more to do with it than anything else.

Joe: Hey Keith, thanks again for the chat. Can you settle a question for me? If you had to start a franchise and could pick between Severino or Nola as being your Ace, who would it be?
Keith Law: I feel better about Nola long-term, even though Severino is the better pitcher today (the last six starts notwithstanding).

Xavier: Any shot Vientos or Kelenic starts next season in full-season ball? What do you think of those guys?
Keith Law: I like both and think both start in Columbia.

JP: I LOL’ed at a guy who called you a “virtue signaller” on Twitter last weekend. Funny how that term has developed into a put-down used to “burn” anyone who expresses an interest in equality. At this point, you’re telling on yourself by even using that term aren’t you?
Keith Law: That’s my take. I don’t care if anyone thinks I have or lack “virtue.” I do care about using my platform to do an ounce of fucking good in this world before I lose it.

Matt: Moncada is on track to break the single season K record. Do you think he still lives up to his All-Star potental?
Keith Law: I have been the relative skeptic on him – still ranking him in the top 20, but never buying him as the #1 prospect or even a top ten guy. His swing and miss issues are real and were always predictable. He has enormous athleticism and upside, but I couldn’t predict he would get to it. I would still bet on him having a long career as a regular who is very up and down year to year.

E J : With 2 AZL teams, are there any emerging prospects or deep sleepers for the Padres generating interest among scouts that might have 50 FV?
Keith Law: No, it’s a lot of filler to make sure the prospects have guys to play with.

Chris: My one goal this summer has been to make a peach pie (I aim high to be sure). I’m a fairly decent cook, but have never baked anything in my life. I’m armed with an America’s Test Kitchen/Cook’s Country book. Should I try the crust recipe (which seems terribly complicated, particularly to someone like me who has never made a crust before) or just buy pre-made? If the latter, how much will it affect the taste/consistency of the pie?
Keith Law: Stella Parks’ pie crust recipe is the easiest reliable recipe I know. Very easy, doesn’t require any fancy techniques.
Keith Law: It’s on seriouseats.

Buddy the Elf: What’s your favorite color?
Keith Law: Living Colour.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: In your opinion, is an animals life less valuable than a human life? I ask because I know your stance on veganism, and you’re a rational man, but I think you don’t give a strong enough stance on factory farming. If you give equal weight to all sentient beings, isn’t our actions towards animals one of our gravest moral ills?
Keith Law: I don’t give equal weight to all sentient beings. An animal’s life is not equivalent to a human life. Our cat just died a few weeks ago of cancer. We did not operate or try expensive treatments. We were extremely sad to lose him, but the grief afterwards has not been close to the grief we faced when beloved human family members or friends have passed away. So I don’t really know where you’re coming from – and if you think I haven’t railed against factory farming, you haven’t been reading.

Carlo: What do you think of xwOBA? Do you think we’ll end up seeing certain players who consistently out perform or underperform their xwOBA — kind of like with FIP?
Keith Law: Someone – Russell Carleton, I think? – wrote a piece showing that these x-stats don’t predict future performance well enough for us to use them.

Steve: There is no active place to leave comments for the chat. Where am I supposed to ask my questions?
Keith Law: Um … right here?

(I’m pretty sure Steve was joking.)

Jeff: Did you ever think Scooter Gennett was capable of putting up 2 seasons like he has recently? I’d be shopping the shit out of him this winter.
Keith Law: I did not, and I can’t shake the sense that a lot of this is ballpark-fueled. I would shop him too. His value isn’t likely to ever be higher, and they have bats in the system.

Joshua: Hi Keith, with the Nats still hovering around .500, and still 6 games back, should they start selling now? Seems to me that Murphy, Gio, and Madson should be able to get back something “meaningful” in return. Thanks.
Keith Law: Too late for that. Besides, I think they should be going for it.

mike honcho: who are some names you are expecting to see in the AFL this year?
Keith Law: I am hoping we get Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Robles (if not on the playoff roster), F. Whitley (ditto), maybe G. Whitley?

Russ: Thanks for the chats. We have a son who is going to be a HS freshman this year. What is more important in the summer: large national tournaments or playing on the best team………or some combination of both.
Keith Law: Playing, having fun, not playing too much, and if he’s a pitcher not throwing too much.

Dallas: I’ve been watching old Top Chef seasons (the first season I saw was the 1st All-Star season) and realized the show peaked in Las Vegas with the Voltaggio brothers, Kevin Hubbard, and Jen Carroll. They’ve never had a group of chefs like that season and probably have no chance to ever get that much quality again. I understand now why you’ve given up on the show but at the same time wish you would come back.
Keith Law: That was definitely the best season, although the All-Star season where Blais won was pretty great too.

Michael: The cooking show completely misunderstands why hunger exists. It’s the economic system that keeps people in poverty and hungry, not a lack of food. And the amount of food used on all cooking shows combined is still a pittance.
Keith Law: I agree, although food waste is pretty terrible too. Colicchio tweets about it often, so I am hard-pressed to think Top Chef is just composting all that stuff.

Angelo: When a guy like Oscar Mercado has “average at best speed” but consistently steals 30+ bases in the minors, how does that usually translate at the major league level? Do you think he can steal 20+ bases as a regular with what his speed is?
Keith Law: It may indicate that he’s particularly skilled at stealing – at reading pitchers, picking his spots, etc.

Bort: Is it time for the Astros to move McCullers to the pen permanently?
Keith Law: I think so.

Adam: I know you have been skeptical on Newcomb at times due to his walk rate. It seems he has progressed further and further. Are you buying now?
Keith Law: No.

AJ: Do you regret asserting that it was “absolutely racist” to include the 6 HOF members of the 90s Braves (who happen to be white) in a roundtable interview? It’s wrong, clearly, as being in the HOF and being in Cooperstown last week were prereqs for the interview. But it is also unhelpful for the cause of racial justice that you (and me and many others) promote. It undermines legitimate claims of the racism you thought you were seeing.
Keith Law: The obstinacy is stunning. The “prereqs” themselves were the problem. Those guidelines were not handed down by God or encoded in the laws of the universe. Someone chose criteria that excluded all players of color. They could just as easily have chosen other criteria that put at least one person of color in that room – but they didn’t. That is a failure of representation. And your comment is a failure of critical thinking.
Keith Law: I’m out, there’s only so much dumb I can take in one sitting. Plus my car needs its annual oil change. Thanks for all the questions and for reading, as usual. I should be on a regular Thursday chat schedule this month unless there’s a day game I need to hit. Look for my Gen Con wrapup soon over at Paste.

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