Klawchat 4/2/25.

Keith Law: My spoon is too big. Klawchat.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for continuing to do these chats here. I love The Athletic, but not its chat feature. I had a question amid the discussion about the torpedo bats. Is this going to change the definition of a barrel?
Keith Law: You’re welcome – I also don’t care for the format of TA’s chats, but I also don’t get and don’t feel like I can answer questions too far afield from baseball there, whereas here anything goes. To your question, no, I don’t think it would change the definition, but it might change the frequency of Barrels.

Smitts: How good can Casey Mize be with the arsenal he showed last night?
Keith Law: The splitter looked fantastic on tv, but he still didn’t throw a ton, and Statcast doesn’t seem to think it’s that different from 2024. I loved Mize in the draft/before he debuted and would love this to be sustainable, but I need to see more.

addoeh: When does your top 50 draft prospects ranking come out?  And still planning on your top 100 in early May?
Keith Law: Top 50 is scheduled for 4/15. And yes to the top 100.

addoeh: More surprising event in Mondays Vagabond A’s – Chicago Cubs game; Jacob Wilson first career HR or Carson Kelly hitting for the cycle?
Keith Law: Oh, Kelly by a mile. Requires four events rather than one, and that Sacramento park is probably going to be pretty power-friendly.

Aaron C.: Best tacos you’ve ever had in the *eastern* time zone and outside of your own kitchen?
Keith Law: Nuvotaco in Durham.

Guest: Jackson Merrill $135MM/9: yay all around?
Keith Law: Yep. No notes.

Heather: Did the torpedo bats injure Giancarlo Stanton, or was the perpetually injured Stanton injured while standing near a torpedo bat?  NYC needs to know!
Keith Law: Are you saying the bats … torpedoed his career?

JJ: Why is Marcelo Mayer in Worcester, and Trevor “.235 Career Hitter Away from Coors” Story in the Red Sox’ starting lineup?  When he’s not hurt, Story’s a lousy hitter.
Keith Law: I think Mayer needs AAA time and wrote as much this winter. He’ll be up soon enough.

Aaron C.: NOT asking you to name names, but have you ever scouted a kid with legitimate “make-up” concerns who went on to have an MLB career of note?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike Trout: I saw you mention that you are also a big fan of Zone of Interest. Will you be reviewing it?
Keith Law: No, I watched it too long ago to write about it. It was the best movie I saw from 2023, though. It’s a masterpiece of subtlety. All of the evil is just outside of your view.

Finnegan: Was Roki Sasaki really one of the five best SP options for the Dodgers this spring?  I don’t understand why he’s not in Oklahoma City.
Keith Law: Who was a better option? Setting aside his experience in NPB and the hype around him, I think he was one of of their five best SP.

Richard: Baseball is back!!  Dana Brown called Cam Smith an ‘aircraft carrier,’ which I guess is good, but promoting him and immediately putting him in Right seems like a lot to handle…any concerns about long-term damage from pushing him too quickly, or could he benefit in the long run?
Keith Law: I do not like having a player play a new position as he transitions to the majors. Jackson Merrill pulled it off, if you want a counterexample.

Richard: Based on your recommendation I read Nettle and Bone and loved it! The modernization of classic fantasy road trip themes, and abundant humor were great.  Have you read any of her other work that you’d recommend (or someone doing similar things)?
Keith Law: I’m about halfway through her newest novel, A Sorceress Comes to Call, and it’s excellent. Her style reminds me of Connie Willis and Jo Walton.

Alek: This pirates rebuild has not gone according to plan. Looks to be a combo of missing on their trades (musgrove, bell, etc) and their drafted hitters underperforming (davis, gonzales, termarr) . Any other insights you’d add?
Keith Law: The thing about their drafts is that those guys were pretty much all seen as good or apt picks for where Pittsburgh took them. Davis is a special case because they did the thing I just said I hate to see – they promoted him to the majors and had him play a new position, and it seems to have derailed him completely.

Alek: I’m not sure many had Mitchell parker as being as successful as hes been, but hes pitched like a good number 5, maybe even a 4. (which is a relative win)..do you think thats about what he is?
Keith Law: He’s a 5, nothing more.

Johnny Beisbol: White Sox starting rotation has some interesting guys. Between Burke, Martin, Smith, and Cannon, who do you think has the brightest future?
Keith Law: Burke, whom I wrote a little more about last week.

Braydon: Does the top of the draft seem more uncertain this year than in recent years, or is it still too early in the process?
Keith Law: Uncertain in terms of who the players are up top, yes, for sure. Teams generally don’t know who they’re taking this far in advance, but the issue I’m having is that nobody is really a #1 prospect in this class. Lots of guys who’d be good picks at #6 and down. Every player I think could go top 5 has some significant flaw or question mark.

Dana: Is Jasson Dominguez hopeless defensively, or is he just a young player who needs more reps in LF? Yanks keep pulling him for defense in close games late.
Keith Law: Another position change guy. Even weirder because he can really play centerfield.

Insert Witty Name Here: Oh sweet, a Klawchat!  Considering how terrible our political candidates are, who do you think would/could actually do the job of POTUS and be FDR like? If you can’t think of a name, what kind of background that isn’t multiple failed businessman.
Keith Law: I don’t know that that person exists right now. FDR took office in the midst of a global depression, and thus had a lot of latitude to implement big, bold policy changes that probably wouldn’t have flown five years earlier. The New Deal was as close to socialism as the U.S. has ever gotten; can you imagine the reaction today if President Walz or Ocasio-Cortez proposed the WPA and CCC?

Jay: Rafael Devers — some say the switch from 3B to DH is too much of a mental adjustment, and messing with his mind.  Others say the four week staycation he took in lieu of participating in spring training games threw off his timing at the plate.  Where do you stand?
Keith Law: Would guess the latter. Also it’s a tiny sample.

Alek: A month after your first rankings, Still have Doyle at number 1? Any other big movers lately?
Keith Law: I haven’t re-ranked anyone yet … I’ve started working on the top 50, of course, but it’s preliminary.

Jeremy: Nick Gonzalez has a fractured ankle. Adam Frazier is now essentially the starting second baseman and is batting lead off today while Nick Horne is in AAA Indianapolis. That is insane, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, I don’t get it. Perfect opportunity to bring Yorke back to the majors.

JTW: Do you still vote for the Hall of Fame?  Just curious.  When I look at guys like Billy Wagner, Dave Parker, Dick Allen, and Harold Baines going in these days, I’m assuming the requirements have changed, and that everyone who actually plays ten full seasons is now guaranteed eventual enshrinement.  Wait by your phone, Matt Stairs!
Keith Law: I do. I don’t think I’ve moved the bar as much as those ridiculous committees, where people just vote for their friends.

J-Train: Would you ever consider annualizing a player’s 2020 stats to make a HOF argument?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Sean M.: Now that the universe has given them what they deserve with a pick at 7 instead of 1, what is the best case scenario for the Marlins at that pick?
Keith Law: Way too soon to answer that. There are plenty of good players for the 7th pick.

Eric: The Blue Jays have started Will Wagner, 5 of the first 6 games. Are you as optimistic about his future as productive player as they seem to be?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a long-term regular.

Martin: Do you think this idea is or could be true?: “Clutchness” in the sense of “avoiding performance degradation under pressure” is an actual skill, but it’s not a real-world differentiator between MLB players because essentially everyone in MLB has it. If you can’t handle pressure, you likely wouldn’t make it to MLB.
Keith Law: This has been my argument for forever. Same with lineup protection: I’m sure it exists in high school; it may exist in college or the low minors; we know it doesn’t exist in the majors (or its effect is too small to capture).

Bobby Digital: Did you ever think you’d see a petty, perpetually aggrieved billionaire literally handing out giant checks in the hopes that people would a) like him and b) vote in a way that makes it easier for him to game the system?
Keith Law: I did not. Looking back, I’ve been too naive about just how harmful Citizens United has been. It’s destroyed our democracy in ways that I don’t think can be repaired.

JR: I’m not as fast of a reader as you, but often take down suggestions from you and read books in order of my list. Meaning, this year I’ve read both Minotaur takes a cigarette break and smoke. Both have had sequels come out since you reviewed them, lol. Any plans to read? Assuming you were aware sequels existed?
Keith Law: I was not! Will definitely read the Minotaur sequel.

Paul: Have you had a chance to check out “The Studio”? I liked the first two eps.
Keith Law: No, other than Adolescence I’ve been all movies this month. Was going to watch White Lotus next, but after reading how they cut a reference to Carrie Coon’s character having a trans or NB child after Trump was elected, I lost interest. Straight-up obeying in advance there.

Ben: Nominating JB Pritzker for closest FDR analogue.  Very rich, a surprisingly compelling speaker, and a former governor who both seems to have fun with politics and be good at the management aspect.  Illinois loves its big boy governor.
Keith Law: And he’s been pretty fearless so far about speaking his mind and speaking out against the Administration. Assuming we’re allowed to vote for anything in 2028, the best candidate will be someone who never bent the knee.

Henry: Can we just indoctrinate small sample size for everything in MLB until at least June, and encourage folks to read Smart Baseball?
Keith Law: I’m on board with that. Was hoping Cory Booker would start reading from it during his speech to fill some time.

Guest: Do you think we’ll see Nick Kurtz called up by the All-Star break?
Keith Law: Honestly don’t know the answer to that. This year, sure.

Lark11: Have you read any books by Lauren Groff? I was pretty damn impressed by The Vaster Wilds
Keith Law: Fates & Furies and Florida. That might be it?
Keith Law: Liked both, though.

Lark11: Has Ben Rice taken a legitimate step forward? Can he be a full-time starter in MLB? A true impact hitter? Thanks!!
Keith Law: No.

How is it done: You do a lot of board game reviews- how many hours a week would you say you spend on playing/writing about games? How about how many hours on watching/writing/analyzing baseball?
Keith Law: That answer would vary widely based on time of year. I’ve barely done anything game-related in the last month because I’ve been traveling so much. The two reviews I posted at Paste were written before March even began, because I knew what was coming.

Ice: I did a Val Kilmer search on your site this morning and saw the only movie review where he was mentioned was for KKBB. Any other of his films that you liked/didn’t like?
Keith Law: Top Secret is an all-time favorite. It doesn’t hold up that well today overall, but there are some timeless jokes in there.
Keith Law: As soon as I saw he’d died, “Skeet Surfin'” popped into my head.

Jim Walewander: For decades, the Tigers did not prioritize the minor leagues or the international market.

Now, seemingly overnight, everything this front office and coaching staff touches turns to gold.

How much credit goes to Scott Harris & Co., versus Hinch, Fetter and the coaching staff?
Keith Law: I think you can spread the credit around. They’ve drafted substantially better since Mark Conner took over as Scouting Director, and I had a pro scout who’s covered them for a while tell me this winter that they have made a 180 in terms of developing players – it went from guys failing to develop at all or up to their potential to guys developing beyond expectations all over the place. Kevin McGonigle might be the best example right now.

Chris: Keith, if you were the GM, how would you solve the Red Sox’ looming need to get Roman Anthony at bats in the big leagues? Should they trade Abreu or move Duran to CF and Rafaela to the bench?
Keith Law: Rafaela’s the odd man out, right? 80 defense won’t carry a .270 OBP. And Statcast has his defense at -2 runs through 5 games!

Matt: At what point do you start to give weight to velo bumps in pitching prospects? Is there a certain workload you want to see them hit before you buy in?
Keith Law: A fair question but I don’t have a specific answer in innings or games. I don’t buy into a single outing, though, especially early in the year when guys are typically not asked to work as deep into games as they are in May or June.

Mike: What do you think of the Angels promoting so aggressively?. Do you think the apparent successes get too much attention compared to players who might be handicapped by that? I’m wondering specifically about Nelson Rada, who doesn’t seem like he’s gotten comfortable at any level he’s played.
Keith Law: I’m not in favor of it. I’m glad Rada isn’t in AAA yet, because he is absolutely not ready, and sending a kid who needs to work on things like pitch recognition to the western part of the PCL with all its parks at altitude is not going to help him one iota. Neto’s been a success for their practice of pushing guys quickly … and that’s it, right?

NL1992: Do you think scouting skills are transferable across sports? Are there other sports where you think you could potentially hang or are particularly clueless?
Keith Law: I think it would take me years and years to figure out what to do in another sport. So much of what scouts do is based on their body of knowledge accumulated over the course of a career – of learning from mistakes, of picking up on patterns or subtle cues in players, etc. I sometimes see a player and know he reminds me of someone else (or several someone elses) but can’t quite put my finger on why. I just go with it, either way, because clearly my brain is seeing some pattern there even if I can’t articulate it.

Jm: Seeing the Cubs feast on Sacramento pitching, is run differential kind of a sham? More runs in two games than the other six combined doesn’t really tell you about their bad hitting
Keith Law: Run differential in a tiny sample is useless.

nelson: how good is schwellenbach?
Keith Law: Maybe a #2 starter?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan, to be clear. It was always about health & his ability to handle a starter’s workload (he was a SS/closer in college, like Shaun Marcum).

Jm: Any good non fiction book recos?
Keith Law: I had to go to my spreadsheet to see what non-fiction I’ve read recently and it’s not that many – only two this year, one of which, Dr. Ellen Hendriksen’s How to Be Enough, I liked a ton, but bear in mind I know her a bit so there’s some bias there. From last year, Adam Hochschild’s To End All Wars was probably the best non-fiction book I read. I didn’t realize I’d been so fiction-heavy the last 15 months or so.

Mike: followup on the Angels – Ben Joyce was pretty good last year in a fairly small number of innings. Do you think the Angels think Schanuel has been a success?
Keith Law: Joyce was a college senior with a crimson-red flag on him in the injury department. Kind of a different story.
Keith Law: Like, you are insane to waste that kid’s bullets in the minors.

Tom: Do scouts attempt to scout knuckleballers or is that world just a total guessing game?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t know where to start. And there are so few anyway that it has never come up in my career. Which is a shame, because they’re awesome.

Mike: Should Mason Montgomery ever try starting again?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Jm: In what world does starting Biggio at 1B make sense? Surely there are other players who can actually hit the ball they could have there
Keith Law: None. You know my opinion on him. Had his one moment in the sun – mostly when the competition was deflated – and then the league figured him out.

Paul: What would be your breaking point for leaving the US? As someone who is lucky enough to have dual citizenship, I have been debating whether or not I am better off raising my family abroad despite all the difficulty that would entail.
Keith Law: If I thought my safety or that of anyone in my family was at risk, I’d try to leave. That’s more likely for the women in my house than it is for me – they’re losing rights much faster than men are. The SAVE act is trying to destroy women’s right to vote.

Guest: Spring training and early results aside, does Leiter’s stuff look better?
Keith Law: He’s throwing harder, but that doesn’t really address the problem of the four-seamer being too straight and hittable – it’s moving less than it did last year. But he’s throwing a sinker more than he did last year, and that could be the entire key for him. His other stuff is fine. Hitters really enjoyed his fastball too much. Like the way I enjoy pizza. It’s not what you want.

Guest: Love the Don Hertzfeldt reference. I am a banana!
Keith Law: I just wish my cable company carried the Family Learning Channel.

Jm: Elon isn’t handing out checks. He’s giving them to republican donors and operatives
Keith Law: Which, as I understand it, is illegal, and yet somehow he is not facing any sort of legal threats!

JR: Men’s college football and basketball has been wild to follow of late. The free transfers and NIL give us a idea of what it would be like if every MLB player was a free agent every year. Would every player being on a one year contract be healthy for the game?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a clear yes/no answer, is it? Imagine the excitement every winter when teams scrambled to fill out their rosters!

Mike Trout: What is your take on the democrats potentially adopting “abundance?”
Keith Law: I truly don’t know enough about this to comment, sorry.

DNL: If you were to leave the United States, where would you go? It’s not clear that other nations would accept us as immigrants.
Keith Law: I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it.

Saxton: Kristian Campbell just extended 8 years plus 2 club options. Think Boston will be able to get deals done with Anthony and Mayer as well?
Keith Law: He’d probably be the easiest of the three as he’s the oldest and didn’t come into the majors with the same expectations.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What’s the rationale behind your notion that Rice isn’t a regular? Lack of defense or something in his hitting that you think will be exposed?
Keith Law: The swing.
Keith Law: And he has no position.
Keith Law: He was awful in the majors last year at 25. What’s the argument that he’s not that guy any more? 10 at bats?

Breslow: Campbell just signed an eight-year deal with the Red Sox. Good idea to lock him up for that long?
Keith Law: As with Merrill, seems good for both sides. Teams take on some risk now in the hopes of severely underpaying the players down the road; the players are set for life.

Tim: Lab leak still a failed theory?
Keith Law: Yep. Evidence just keeps piling up against it.

NL1992: Have you read Paul Murray’s ‘The Bee Sting’?
Keith Law: No, hadn’t heard of it till now. I have a pretty high bar to read anything over 500 pages, though. I’ve loved some super-long novels, for sure, but that is a long time for any work to hold my attention.

DNL: If you were managing the Mets, how would you divide playing time at 2B between Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuna
Keith Law: Can Baty really play second? I’d be surprised, and I say that as someone who’s always argued Baty was better at 3b than people thought.

Chris: Is there a point to having Rice play full time while Stanton is out to see if he can hit lefties rather than keep giving Grisham pointless playing time and stunting Jasson?
Keith Law: You know what I’m going to say – you figure out where Dominguez needs to be, for the team and for his own development, and go from there.

A Man Named Dan: Does the Mets rotation have enough talent to keep them in contention this year?
Keith Law: Sure, if they’re healthy.

JTW: Just watched “Anora” last week.  I read your review this morning, and think you liked it a bit more than I did.  My question:  don’t you think a “Best Picture” winner should be more … “substantial”, for lack of a better word?  When I think “Best Picture”, I think “Godfather” or “Ben Hur”.  “Anora” struck me as another in a string of forgettable winners.  Maybe I’m just getting old.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that philosophy – it sounds a bit too much like you’re saying a film has to be “important,” rather than simply the best-made film of the year. That almost completely excludes comedies and musicals, and will tend to favor longer films or films that tackle Big Topics like racism or sexism. Now, if you want to argue that Nickel Boys was a more serious film about a more serious topic and was just as well-made as Anora, I won’t fight you. Nickel Boys at least deserved a lot more love at awards ceremonies. The two biggest snubs in the Oscar nominations were Nickel Boys in Cinematography and Reznor/Ross in Original Score (for Challengers).
Keith Law: The Academy did well with the winners, but man, they whiffed on the nominations. The Apprentice? Really??

romorr: How much longer would you try McDermott as a starter? If it’s August, and he’s still walking 12% to 14%, and the pen needs help in Baltimore, do you make the move? Try and start him again in 2026?
Keith Law: Sure, why not? You’re trying to win – you use older prospects like him however they can help the team.

DNL: Are you a Star Trek fan? If so, any thoughts on the Paramount+ shows to date?
Keith Law: I bet I’d enjoy some of them, but I haven’t watched anything Star Trek related in probably 25 years. I watched the entire original series as a kid, and saw most if not all of TNG in college or shortly afterwards. There are still some TNG episodes I can picture like it was yesterday, including the finale. (Never liked Q that much, though. Kind of wore on me after the first appearance.) As with all the Star Wars series, though, I’m overwhelmed by all of the content and end up not watching any. (I did watch S1/S2 of The Mandalorian and S1 of The Bad Batch. Enjoyed both.)

Chris: Wanted to add I also enjoyed Roadhouse more than a lot of other pointless remakes like Gladiator II (which lets be honest was that and not a sequel).  Jake almost always brings the goods.
Keith Law: I watched Gladiator in the fall to prepare to watch the new one … and then realized it was basically a remake that nobody liked as much as the original.

Heather: If Giancarlo Stanton can overcome his allergic reaction to the torpedo bats, is he a HOFer in your eyes?  He had four or five excellent years (I believe all in Miami), but he’s turned into Dave Kingman for the last half decade.
Keith Law: That’s an interesting question, more so than I thought at first glance. B-R has him at 45 WAR, which is low, but would be far from the lowest in the Hall for a position player. (He’s well over the Baines Line.) It’s really a peak argument: 33 WAR in his best 7-year stretch, one MVP and one runner-up. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS seems to have him too far on the outside, so guessing right now, if Stanton retired today, I’d be a ‘no.’ It’s a good one, though.

Jm: You should watch Andor. Best tv of last five years
Keith Law: I feel like that would be the one to watch, no? I did watch one episode of The Book of Boba Fett and had a sinking feeling that the rest of the series were just going to be low-effort series to capitalize on the popularity of The Mandalorian. I think Marvel’s kind of done the same.
Keith Law: OK that’s all for this week, but I’ll try to do these more regularly now that the season’s rolling and my travel isn’t going to be nearly as heavy as it was in March. Thank you all for reading and for your questions!