Klawchat 2/20/25.

There’s now a complete index to my offseason prospect rankings over at The Athletic, and my first draft scouting notebook of 2025 is up now for subscribers.

Keith Law: I’m tripping, I’m sliding, I’m riding through the back like Klawchat.

Mjay: I bought and enjoyed both of your books. I know you’re busy but I live in hope that you’re planning another. I’m don’t have hope for much else right now
Keith Law: I don’t have one in the works yet, but this is definitely the year for me to start one.

davealden53: Who will be at shortstop for the Dodgers on Opening Day 2026 (next year)?  Mookie Betts, Alex Freeland, or the field?
Keith Law: Not Betts, I hope. He’s just not good enough to play there. Freeland is probably the best bet for a single name – he was on my top 100 this year and is pretty close to the majors. I’d like to get a better read on his defense at SS in AAA.

PhillyJake: How do you explain the fall of of Henry Davis. I don’t expect players to duplicate their AAA numbers in the majors, but a drop of OBA from .401 to .283 and a slugging drop of .555 to .212 is an outlier!  One would think both of these should be at least .100 points higher.
Keith Law: I really think pushing him to a new position (RF) in the majors derailed his development, especially because he wasn’t good there at all, and that leaked back into his at bats. The gap between his high-minors performance and his major-league performance has no other clear explanation.

davealden53: Many projections put 2025 starts for Noah Schultz at a half-dozen.  Over or under?
Keith Law: Under.

Mike: Klaw, Love your chats. Its why I subscribe to the Athletic. Question on the Mets. They have so many position players that overlap. I know not everyone will pan out, but are they best off trading one of Jett, Acuna, Gilbert or even Mauricio as they overlap?
Keith Law: Yes. Probably not Mauricio until he’s back and shows he’s healthy enough to play somewhere on the dirt.

Dr. Bob: You always argue against promoting a player based on ST performance. I understand the reasons. However, how does a team fill roster spots that have not already been decided? ST has to factor in there somehow.
Keith Law: I think teams should enter ST with a preference list for each of those spots, and then use the exhibition games to see who’s healthy, who’s in the best shape, who might have changed something (new swing, new pitch, better pitch/batted-ball data) that would upend that order. I don’t think using superficial ST results like batting average or homers should impact the decision at all.

Mike: Klaw, what are your thoughts on both automated balls/strikes or the challenge system? I have seen the challenge system in minor league games. I like it. Quick answers on a challenge.
Keith Law: Yes. Yes to all of it.

Nils: I often hear of prospects’ ceilings, in terms of high ceiling, low ceiling, unlikely to reach ceiling, etc.  I know we can assume the stars in the league have reached their ceiling but I would be curious of what big leaguers are/were stars yet didnt even reach what you thought of as their ceiling and vice versa what every day players reached their respective ceilings.  Any examples?
Keith Law: Carl Crawford comes to mind – I mentioned that in passing in his son’s (Justin) writeup last offseason and people took it to mean that I thought Carl was a bad player. I just think he had HoF upside. I remember seeing him at 20 and being astounded by his athleticism and how easy he made the game look on both sides of the ball. But he never seemed to work at his craft and at some point he didn’t keep up his conditioning. He had one superstar-level season, his walk year (7.0 bWAR), at age 28. The remainder of his career he produced just 3.6 bWAR and he was effectively done at 32.

Buckner86: Can Bobby Miller still be a #1 starter?   What do you want to see from him this spring and what do you expect?
Keith Law: Health first, then some semblance of the control he showed in the minors.

Mike Trout: Is there any hope to convincing people Trump’s actions are bad, especially when they sound good? For example the Gaza ceasefire, ending the Ukraine war, and DOGE seem well-received but all it takes is a little extra thought to see each is setting up more problems.
Keith Law: I don’t think you’re convincing true believers that anything this Administration does is bad. It’s the people who are getting hit by these actions – people who’ve lost their jobs because of these arbitrary job and program cuts, or know someone who lost their job from them – who are going to be the most open to rational arguments.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Would you ever publish a top 200?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. I’m one person. I couldn’t do that well, and I think it would be more clickbaity than informative.

CK: What sort of package would it take for the Cubs to get Cease back?
Keith Law: Sorry, I don’t know the answers to questions like those. We have other writers who are more plugged into the trade market.

Afterthought: It seems like some teams will pick multiple players from a college (sometimes across several years). Is this just coincidence, or is there an implication that teams rate the colleges’ player dev especially high or low?
Keith Law: It could also be that certain colleges are very good at recruiting or developing specific types of players. Any team that drafts a lot of college guys is going to see a lot of SEC/ACC schools pop up again and again. You could also have a scenario where a team feels like they have particularly good connections to a college so they get better access to the players and know their makeup well.

Jason: What are your thoughts on Jesus Made? Future star? Better than Chourio?
Keith Law: The answer to that is in the top 100 and in the Brewers org report (same player capsule in both places).

Billy: I know you don’t pay attention to other lists, but there was a mention that Blake Mitchell has poor plate discipline on another list. I’ve seen his chase rate was around 19-20% this past season which seems more than good to me. Am I missing something? Is it more his swing decisions need work or is that evaluation just incorrect?
Keith Law: I don’t know who said that or why, so I can’t comment.

Braydon: If you knew a draft prospect would become a Top 10 closer (or high leverage reliever) during most of their control years but have no chance to start, what would be the draft range of that prospect?
Keith Law: Second round. Maybe the comp round in a thin year.

Corey: Is a true 6 man rotation sustainable for a full season like what Boston is likely to attempt ?   Likely there are injuries which is the point but in the event they all stay healthy ?
Keith Law: Why wouldn’t it be? It might be the future if it means starters can pitch deeper into games more effectively – we’ll see if the times through the order penalty is mitigated at all by the regular extra day of rest – and I don’t see the downside risk.

James: Is there any MLB team that actually loses money? Not fancy accounting trick losses, but actual losses?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it. Maybe the A’s and Rays if you take out their revenue sharing, but they are anomalies. The first team is trying to move, and the second is … well, trying to move, just in a different way. MLB is very bad at accepting that some markets don’t work. It’s like this New Orleans/NHL rumor – that’s a worse idea than an MLB team in Vegas. Good luck putting a hockey team in a city with no real history with the sport, a very small population, and a good chance it’ll be underwater in 10 years.

Luke: Next country to have its first MLB player?
Keith Law: Uganda. Pirates have a reliever from there, David Matoma, just 18 years old but a prospect. If they had a weaker system he would have made their list.

Ross A.: Would *you* have given Vlad $500M+?
Keith Law: I don’t know the actual offers with deferrals and backloading, but yeah, I’d pay the guy. At some point, you have to pay someone.

Nick: Do you think Chandler Simpson hits enough to hold down an every day role for the Rays?
Keith Law: He’s #12 in the Rays’ system. You may infer my answer from that, but I explain it in their org report.

RH: With the disclaimer that I would get rid of all amateur drafts if possible, if an international draft is inevitable would it make more sense to raise the age minimum to 18 and have one single amateur draft?
Keith Law: Yes but I also think that’s going to wreak a lot of havoc on the baseball infrastructure in Latin America (except Puerto Rico), as it’s all been built up around the signing age of 16, and in many places it’s not like those kids are in school waiting to sign. Any switch to a draft is going to hurt the kids, but increasing the signing age may exacerbate it further.

SC1230: Hey Keith. Any chance you’d put out a list of the best MLB prospects for fantasy baseball (so just offense and pitchers)? Or maybe toss a top 10 in here?
Keith Law: No, sorry, I don’t play any sort of fantasy baseball so I don’t know how value there differs from what I’m talking about.

JR: As spring training is here again, we need to know – are you in the best shape of your life?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Bruiser Flint: Question re the 2025 draft class. Is there any pitcher out there that you think could perform well enough to merit consideration at #1 overall? I’d love to see the Nats get an awesome young pitcher but obviously LaViolette would be great too
Keith Law: Laviolette struck out 80+ times last year. Barring a major change in his results this spring, I can’t see taking him at 1. I’ve heard UCSB right-hander Tyler Bremner (who I should be seeing tomorrow) and Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold as 1-1 possibilities. I’ve got probably six names now of college starters who are in or trending towards top half of the round picks. I’ll do a ranking for the draft either next week or the week after – I got sick through the weekend and we pushed my 2025 impact prospects column to next week so I could rest.

James: Trout going to RF. Will that really “save his legs?” I don’t get how baseball players get that many injuries given how little they run in the field compared to other sports
Keith Law: It’s a lot of zero-to-60 running, though – going from nothing to all-out. Also we see a lot more oblique/lat strains in hitters now, I think, which I assume is because guys swing so much harder, because pitchers throw much harder, which also leads to more injuries.

Guest: Is Andy Pages an everyday regular if he can get an opportunity to play in another organization? Is there an opportunity to be a part of a platoon with Conforto with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: Everyday guy for me.

Pat: Whenever I think of “very good player/star for a few years” that didn’t hit their ceiling, Garry Templeton comes to mind. He was a guy that SHOULD have been a HOF’er, but, just didn’t want it bad enough, I think.
Keith Law: Touch before my time – I remember him, but by the time my memories start he was already a Padre.

JR: Any free agents that you’re surprised are still available? I know Quintana is no spring chicken anymore, but at 36 and coming off a decent year and given teams never have enough pitching it’s a little surprising he hasn’t found a one year deal to his liking.
Keith Law: Good name. I just checked my own rankings and Andrew Heaney is another one. I think Alex Verdugo is my highest-ranked unsigned hitter, but he’s a platoon guy and I understand that a bit more.

Frank: The Giants are stuck in mediocrity with a bad farm system.  Seems like the worst of all places to be.  How does a team get out of that predicament without totally blowing it up and going into full rebuild mode?
Keith Law: Their system (org report & top 20) has a lot of untapped/underdeveloped talent, IMO. I think this will be a big year given the changes in leadership. But I also think they have to hit on some of the big picks – the first-rounders and the high-dollar IFAs. That’s been a weak spot for them in the last five years.

Bret: I was at the UCONN-Penn State game in Puerto Rico Sunday night. Looked like 7-8 scouts were watching Ryan DeSanto of Penn State. Is he a legit prospect? From my naked eye he looked good and didn’t give up a hit in four innings.
Keith Law: No, he’s not, they were down there to see Virginia (Ford, Godbout) and Michigan (Vigue) primarily.

Ryan: Have you listened to Epica? Recently discovered them. Was curious your thoughts if you have.
Keith Law: Not familiar with them. Tuning in now.

Buckner86: When is the breakout column?   Walker was there last year.  You’ve been early on multiple player.  Is Walker one of them?
Keith Law: Some time in March. Sorry I don’t have a more specific answer. Jordyn Walker may be my Rickie Weeks … I can’t believe he’s never going to hit. It’s just unfathomable.

James: Is there any chance of normalcy if the media is in the tank for Trump? Twitter paid Trump $10M to settle a case they had gotten dismissed and it doesn’t make a blip when it’s an obvious bribe. Where is the courage?
Keith Law: What I don’t get is why major media outlets are failing to cover the obvious stuff. He called himself a king! He fired a whole bunch of veterans! How is that not front page news?

Billy: Guess a better way to phrase that Mitchell question is do you have concerns about his plate discipline?
Keith Law: Not huge ones. If you check out my report on him (Royals top 20) I noted his improved swing decisions in 2024.

Tim: Considering how much emphasis is placed on velocity at all levels including youth baseball, do you think a modern day high school Greg Maddox would get the attention from scouts he deserves?
Keith Law: Yes. One, he wasn’t a soft tosser for his era. Two, we still love guys who can pitch.

MJ: Watch any good shows lately? Are you into Severance at all?
Keith Law: Very much on my list but right now I’m just catching up on movies on my flights/in hotel rooms. I’ve seen four of the animated feature nominees and have Memoir of a Snail queued up.

James: Do you like the pitch clock?
Keith Law: Yes, unreservedly. Makes going to games much more fun, and I think it’s better for my focus. Also I’m not screaming “throw the fucking ball” in my head every couple of minutes.

Chewbalka: Welcome back and thanks for doing these chats. Jordan Westburg is pretty solid but do you think he may have another level, and is walking more possibly the key?
Keith Law: I don’t think I have a good answer here – I haven’t dug into him much since he established himself. What’s the thinking here? Just the low OBPs? I think that’s who he is, and it’s rare (not impossible) for a 26-year-old to suddenly start walking more.

Jon: Was curious about your thoughts on Victor Scott II. Made his debut clearly before he was ready last year and was overmatched, can he still be an above average player?
Keith Law: Yes.

Pat: I think the mass media are a bunch of chickens afraid of lawsuits. Trump sued the Des Moines Gazette for saying Kamala was going to win Iowa. They made an honest mistake & he’s going after them.That’s one of many & been a Trump playbook staple from the 1980’s onward. Even if you win the lawsuit, it’s time for people to fight it/get deposed/trial & $$ to hire lawyers. My gut says they’re thinking it’s easier to “go along”…which is awful & a shirking of their duty.
Keith Law: And it’s probably better business sense to settle than fight. But when you give in to a blackmailer, an abuser, a bully, etc., you just tell them that it worked and they should do it again.

Mike: You said you would sign Vlad. How much would you give him? Over/under 10/400?
Keith Law: I’d be fine with that deal but I would probably want to put something in there about his conditioning – we’ll pay you plenty, just keep yourself in shape.

James: Target went anti-DEI and their stock tanked. Best bet on first big company to realize being anti Trump and anti racism is the path to success beyond it being just the right thing to do
Keith Law: I also noticed that Costco’s stock has done very well in the last two months, since the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion divide happened. (Calling it “DEI” really helps people avoid what it actually means. And it’s now showing up as a sort of proxy for a racial slur.) Costco recommitted, and now a bunch of red-state AGs are threatening to sue them. But they got more of our business as a result – money we quite likely would have spent at Target otherwise. So I guess it’s not just us.

Robert: Do you think that Schanuel is ever going to tap into more of his raw power?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes.

Jon: What do you think about the hires the Cardinals have made for their front office/player development?
Keith Law: Love it. Some great people I knew already, some people I didn’t know but who get rave reviews from others.

Mike: No longer a prospect, but how do you see Jose Tena fitting into Wsh’s plans. Maybe a solid utility infield piece?
Keith Law: Everyday 3b or 2b. Third is his best chance now, although I’m not a big believer in Luis Garcia, whose 2024 was well out of line with previous performances.

Dr. J: Thoughts on the likelihood of Noelvi Marte bouncing back to have the type of career most people projected for him 12 months ago?
Keith Law: I’m still buying.

James: Along the same lines, is there any Dem Senator who will become a hero and obstruct and delay things as much as somehow even Tubberville was able to figure out?
Keith Law: Still waiting. If you live in a blue state, call your Senators.

Lee: What’s Kristian Campbell’s ultimate position?  Seems like a no brainer to move Devers to DH, 3B goes to Bregman and you leave 2B open for Campbell when he’s ready this season.  And they have the ultimate placeholder at 2B with Vaughn Grissom if he needs a bit of time in AAA.
Keith Law: That is pretty much what I said in his capsule on the top 100.

Guest: Atlanta has 4 years left on the ludicrously underpriced Acuna/Albies deals (presuming all options are exercised).  Should they not be all-in on patching their few holes (SS, LF, SP) instead of hoping to see progression and staying under the tax threshold?
Keith Law: I agree in principle, but they signed Profar for LF and I don’t see who’s out there at SS for them. Quintana would be a good pickup as rotation insurance. There’s no way the current group stays healthy for even half the season.

Sam: How long does a player have to succeed with funky mechanics (thinking something like Hunter Pence’s hitch in his swing) before you consider him the exception to the rule?
Keith Law: Double A is a big test level for me. But also we can see some better data at lower levels that might show if the funky mechanics are causing an actual issue under the hood that isn’t evident in the superficial stat line.

DG: Have you seen HS Junior CJ Sampson from Tomball Texas (son of former Astro Chris Sampson)? Saw him throw a gem in state finals against Kayson Cunningham’s team. He came to mind reading the previous question about kids who pitch rather than just light up guns. He looks like the real deal to my amateur eyes.
Keith Law: I haven’t and tbh I don’t know anything about him yet since he’s an underclassman.

davealden53: Will the idea of turning Michael Fulmer back into a starter go anywhere?
Keith Law: Eh, I don’t mind it.

Nick: Do you see Brett Baty ever hitting enough to be an above average every day player?  Seems like this is a big year for him, but he doesn’t have a role with the Mets.
Keith Law: Yes. I hope he’s traded before Opening Day. Let him go to a non-contender so he can try to reset without the pressure.
Keith Law: Wouldn’t be the first guy to struggle in a high-pressure debut and then figure it out somewhere else.

Kyle: Your thoughts on some kind of salary cap/floor? How long can we see big market teams pretty much dominate the small market teams? Does Pittsburgh/Oakland?tampa have any shot other then one out of every 7-8 years?
Keith Law: Tampa’s been to the playoffs five times in the last six years. The Brewers, who I think play in MLB’s actual smallest market, have been six times in seven years. The level of difficulty is harder for these low-payroll teams, but 1) it can be done and 2) these owners can absolutely choose to spend more and pocket less. The system needs to make winning more profitable, and coasting less so.

Krontz: My 7 year old is just getting into more advanced board/card games? He loves Sushi Go and Dixit. Any games from last couple years you’d recommend we try with him?
Keith Law: King of Tokyo, Splendor, Ticket to Ride, SCOUT, Cascadia, Tower Up (brand new).

Robert: There is a lot of speculation that Colson Montgomery will be the White Sox opening day SS.  Putting aside long term projections, does it make sense to do this in the short run?  Wouldn’t there be some benefit to “proving” he’s ready in AAA (given how last season went)?
Keith Law: Yes and he’s not good at shortstop.

Guest: Thoughts on Wombats new album?
Keith Law: First few songs I heard were all kind of mid. Is the whole album out yet?

Philip Lee: As Ichiro was a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, the media needed another story; hence, the ‘outrage’ about his selection not being unanimous. I’ve neve seen the word ‘unanimous’ on a plaque. Aren’t we risking dishonoring  great players with this narrative?
Keith Law: Yeah, it’s a classic “dead time of year” nontroversy. I’m over it. And the mob trying to find the person who didn’t vote for Ichiro … yeah, I think it’s dumb, I would like that voter to be accountable, but the furor over it was ridiculous. It’s not worth ruining someone’s life.

Bruiser Flint: If you’re the union, do you take some sort of salary cap if the cap is relatively high but paired with a high floor? e.g., imagine a salary cap of $300m with a floor of $150m. is it possible to envision a trade off where it’s worth it to accept a cap if it makes the pirates, rays, nats, brewers, a’s, etc. spend up to a floor?
Keith Law: If they give in on a cap, that’s it. It’ll never go away, and it won’t rise as quickly as the sport’s revenues do. It’s an irreversible loss.

David Law: Hello fellow Law.  Is it time for an International Draft?  The Dodgers signed Sasaki and the rich got richer.  But doesn’t make sense for baseball as a whole to give smaller market teams a better chance at elite talent like Sasaki? What would it take to implement an Int Draft? Make the Qualifying offer less of a penalty? Demand teams have a salary floor?  Thanks!
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t Sasaki, a 23-year-old major leaguer in his own country, get to choose where he goes? Your question centers the league and teams, but ignores the wishes of the player.
Keith Law: OK, gotta wrap this up. I’ll have at least two things next week, another draft notebook and that 2025 impact prospects list. I’ve also got a review of the game Harvest going up at Paste in the next couple of days, so look for that too. Thanks for reading!