Klawchat 7/11/24.

I have a new mock draft and a final top 100 Big Board draft prospects ranking up for subscribers to the Athletic.

Keith Law: I can’t stay too long. Klawchat.

Scott: You released an updated ranking earlier this week. I’m curious what you are hearing or seeing at this point that is causing the rankings to change.
Keith Law: Teams had players in for workouts, interviewed guys at the combine, full-season data is now available, more video from end of year/summer stuff… a lot has changed since my last update.

Lynn: Keith – I know that it’s still a relatively small sample size and questions remain about how hard he makes contact, and where he plays but has your assessment of Jacob Wilson changed at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s played in two insanely good hitters environments and still doesn’t make enough hard contact.

Tristan: With no rookie-level ball in spring (thanks again, MLB!), it was pretty clear Arjun Nimmala was overmatched with the Dunedin assignment to start the year. After a reset, he’s come back looking much better based on the stat line. I read up until recently he hadn’t faced a pitcher older than him all year. Green light from you that he remains on track? Start him in High-A in ‘25 or hold off?
Keith Law: We have more than two months left to this season, so any talk of where he should start 2025 is premature. I said before the year he should start in extended/the complex and that turned out to be an accurate assessment.

Turner: Wanted to thank you because I read my first Ann Patchett novel (Bel Canto) last week based on your praise for her work and loved it.
Turner: Sorry, my question is if any of her novels would crack your top 100 list if updated today? Probably not important but I do love a top 100 list!
Keith Law: Bel Canto remains a top 50 all-time novel for me. I’ve loved all of her work except Run, but Bel Canto is her masterpiece.

davealden53: Will Bednar has been promoted twice this year despite pitching less than 30 innings.  The strikeout numbers are great but the walks are concerning.  Any reports on whether he’s still shaking off rust from the back injuries or will control be an on-going issue?
Keith Law: He’s walked 11 guys in 8 innings in AA. I’m not hearing reports on him because that’s non-prospect territory.

davealden53: Even adjusting for the PCL, Drew Romo’s offense seems potentially worthy of an ML roster spot.  But how does is his catching progressing?
Keith Law: He’s always been a strong defender, but I disagree on his offense. He’s walked 8 times in 66 games playing in maybe the best hitter’s park in professional baseball, at a mile above sea level, so pitches don’t move as much. What on earth will that look like in the majors?

Gurnam: Big fan of your work going back over a decade. What’s the likelihood that Oakland takes Wetherholt if he’s there at #4? More or less than 30%? Would you take Wetherholt at #4 if you were running their draft? Thanks.
Keith Law: Way less than 30%; I have heard it’s more likely Montgomery or Kurtz. I’d take Wetherholt over either but bear in mind I don’t see medicals or get a doctor’s opinion on them like teams do.

JJ: Garrett Crochet — should the White Sox build around him, or trade him before his next arm injury?  Or should they just save us all the grief, and fold the franchise?
Keith Law: Trade him but maybe this winter since his likely output the rest of 2024 is limited by workload considerations.

Jackie: WAG time — who is the top ranked prospect that gets traded this month?
Keith Law: Someone in Baltimore’s system.

Heather: Would we be better off if we junked our whole system of government, and replaced it with a parliamentary system?
Keith Law: I mean, Italy changes governments every time someone sneezes, so I’m not sure that’s a solution.

addoeh: In the mock, you talked about how the Brewers will pick whoever falls to them that was ranked much higher.  Are they just really neutral on the draft model they subscribe to that they can pursue this philosophy?
Keith Law: No, I think it’s that their draft model is very down-the-middle – and that’s a good thing. They’ve drafted well for a long time. Only Eric Brown Jr stands out as a miss, a guy who was an overdraft on the day he was taken and has proven to be so.

Jimmy: Which of the lsu arms goes first you think? Gage jump or holman?
Keith Law: They both go in the same range, I think. Second round.

David: Any chance Smith or Burns fall out of the top 10?
Keith Law: Unless there’s a medical I don’t know about, zero.

Mike G: Saw your comments about Ben Hess yesterday, do you think it’s possible he makes it to 50 for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: I’d be floored.

Jimmy: Is sloan a safe bet for top 30 pick at this point?
Keith Law: No.

Dana: Can Ben Rice be the Yankees’ long-term answer at first base?
Keith Law: Maybe as a platoon piece.

mike: What a day for Bluejay pitching prospects yesterday – both Tiedemann and Macko leave starts with forearm tightness. Manoah, Barriera and Maroudis already have had TJ this year. this is bad luck and not a systemic issue with the Jay right??
Keith Law: Tiedeman’s had arm trouble – and delivery questions – for a long time now. And Macko’s had arm trouble going back at least two years.
Keith Law: So I don’t think it’s systemic.

Matt: Why do some players like Gary Sanchez fall off a cliff at an early age and others like Beltre seem to thrive as they get older?
Keith Law: Beltre was a way better athlete than Sanchez.
Keith Law: Don’t know if that’s the answer, but it might be.

Joshua: Do you have you think the Nats preference would be to take any one of the “Big 6” college bats at #10 over Yesavage or anyone else in that spot? Thanks.
Keith Law: Oh yes. Yesavage is not in the top 10 by talent. He’s clearly in tier 2.

champdo: Who do you think has the better chance at success: Caminiti or Griffin?
Keith Law: Caminiti, but he also has the injury risk of a pitcher.

Lark11: Hey Keith, Jac and Condon are both taller hitters (6-5/6-6), but to my untrained eye Jac’s swing seems more compact and shorter to the point of contact, whereas Condon seems to have a bit more length. Basically, it feels like Condon has more “tall hitter risk” than Jac. Is this reflected in the fact that the main risk to Jac’s offensive game is chase rate rather than contact rate? Whereas some talk about the risk to Condon’s offensive game being contact rate/hit tool related. Is Jac better positioned to minimize the traditional “tall hitter/long levers” risk? Thanks!!!
Keith Law: Don’t agree on the swing length, and Caglianone has substantially worse plate discipline.

Ryan: How likely do you think it is that Seaver King is actually there at 21… I would love it.
Keith Law: Didn’t have a great year after the transfer, I think it’s even money or better he gets out of the top 20.

Josh: If you’re picking first what’s the point of all the smoke screens?
Keith Law: Trying to strike the best $ deal with whoever you’re taking.

Matt: Higher upside: Justin Crawford or Aidan miller?
Keith Law: Crawford more upside, Miller more probability.

Braydon: The 5 names you have with the Cardinals are Rainer, Burns, Smith, Montgomery, and Wetherholt. What are the odds their pick isn’t one of those 5?
Keith Law: If I thought they might take someone else, I would have listed them.

AK: As a Tigers fan, who of the consensus top 5/10 has the best chance to slip to their pick at 11? Thanks for doing this!
Keith Law: Griffin. And I’ve heard them on him.

Sleepy: I’ve seen it mentioned on other sites that it may be possible that Cags could play corner OF whereas others believe he’s 1B only. Could he cut it in a corner or is he 1B only in your eyes?
Keith Law: I’d try him in a corner to see. Good enough athlete with 80 arm. Dumb to waste him at 1b only.

JT: McGonigle was a guy you liked at this time last year, and he is hitting a ton so far. Do you see him developing enough power to be an above average regular / occasional All-Star?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s hitting the ball harder than I expected for year one. (And a lot harder than Jacob Wilson!)

Andy: If Condon goes pick 1, who is your prediction at pick 2?
Keith Law: Bazzana.

Kevin: Why is the MLB draft structured differently than the other major sports? Blows my mind that teams knowingly pass on the best available player to get someone worse but that can be signed cheaper. Would MLBPA not agree to some sort of structured rookie scale that locks in contract value at each draft slot? Thanks Keith
Keith Law: Why would the union agree to that? What do they get out of it?

Jordan: thoughts on george wolkow? please, white sox fans need something to take us away from this apathy
Keith Law: Dude has a 42% strikeout rate. This ain’t it.

Ryan: If you were the GM of the Red Sox, would you buy/sell/do nothing? Would you be willing to move one or two top prospects?  A lot of mixed messaging happening in Boston on their intended path.
Keith Law: Buy.

Dallas: how good is James tibbs bat (only 50+ tool) where teams would consider taking a future platoon bat top 12 overall?
Keith Law: “Future platoon bat” is rather pessimistic.

Insert Witty Name Here: Curious to know what kind of speakers/headphones you use for music? I asked a few years ago I think and you said you don’t have use for high quality speakers. But the other day I listened to Moby’s new album through my phone and thought it sucked. Then I played it in my car with my expensive speakers and the added sound changed everything.
Keith Law: finally had to get airpods because I got a new phone. It’s that or the car. Nothing fancy, not willing to spend $ for more.

Craig: The groups of players who would have been traditionally taken in rounds 21-50, what are they doing in this new world? Are they going to independent leagues, signing post-draft FA deals with MLB orgs, giving up on organized ball and getting their teaching degree?
Keith Law: Indy ball, undrafted free agents, a lot will just go to college.

Ryan Hall: Hello Keith. What would you do in the Jays situation? Just trade expiring contracts or burn it down? Also, any pizza recommendations in Phoenix downtown?
Keith Law: Bianco, Cibo, Federal.
Keith Law: I’d wait ten more games to decide.

SJ: It looks like a lost year for Jordan Lawlar. Is he someone you’re concerned about long term or were the injuries all just bad luck?
Keith Law: Concerned that he seems to have trouble staying on the field.

Paul: I’m a new dad to a 4 month old.  How are you managing raising kids under the looming specter of the collapse of democracy?  I don’t even know how I’m going to begin to talk to him or try to keep him safe
Keith Law: It’s on my mind pretty often, but what’s the solution?

Miguel: Is there going to be anyone for me to watch at Stanford next season?  Or, if I want to see some mlb prospects, should I just pick games to go based on which ACC team is in town?
Keith Law: Sasaki is worth going to see.

Jon: Do you think Jordan Walker will get back to the majors at some point this year?
Keith Law: Yes, but I’m starting to wonder about what’s happening to some of the bats over there – he and Carlson in particular have stalled out. Two former top ten prospects and neither has progressed as expected.

Matt: Rece Hinds is having a great start, but considering his MiLB K rate, can he really be a MLB regular?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: It was 118+ degrees 4 days this week in Las Vegas. Call me crazy, but maybe we shouldn’t be building cities in these locations let alone move a f’ing MLB team there.
Keith Law: Agree. We should be providing people with an incentive to live elsewhere, or if they’re in places like that to at least live in ways that are a little more sustainable (e.g., in Phoenix, incentivize residential construction near the light rail).

Section 34: Is Matt Etzel a prospect? 10th round pick but promoted to AA faster than the 1st rounder at the same position. Thank you.
Keith Law: Sort of. Need to get his lower half involved more to drive the ball. Great athlete. Wrote about him in February and again in May.

Kip: At what point would you transition Waldrep into a relief role? He didn’t get a lot of swing and misses in a small MLB sample, even with that split.
Keith Law: Uh, he’s less than a year out of the draft.

Jimmy: whats the likely order for catchers to come off the board? Sounds like moore/janek then a gap to lomavita?
Keith Law: Yes and wouldn’t be surprised to see Cozart get in there over Lomavita.

Insert Witty Name Here: Who would you like to see replace Biden at the top of the ticket?
Keith Law: If they replace him, it’s Harris or don’t bother.

Greg: Who is a better long term player- Cowser or Kjerstad?
Keith Law: I have ranked Kjerstad higher since he came back from his illness/injuries. Cowser is a platoon bat at best, and he’s been awful for three months now.

Anonymous: How would you fix Vance Honeycutt’s swing?
Keith Law: What’s wrong with his swing, exactly?

Jimmy: are there any players with medical concerns that may cause a small slide?
Keith Law: If I know any of that, I don’t report it unless MLB has put it out there. I am not going to be responsible for a player sliding like that.

TomBruno23: Quinn Mathews…A Guy?
Keith Law: Yes, if he holds up. Worked way too hard in college.

Guest: Is there a combination of Pirates minor league pitchers, not including Bubba Chandler, that gets an impact bat with some years of control back? Thinking guys like Harrington, Solomento, Burrows, and Ashcraft. Thank you!
Keith Law: No.

Mike Trout: Can Vientos be a solid regular at 3B? 1B? Not expecting a 154 wRC+ going forward but he’s been fun to watch.
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: George klassan. Where the heck did he come from and do you think he’s for real?
Keith Law: I keep hearing reliever from scouts who’ve seen him but he’s a very different guy than the one they drafted, who was misused at Minnesota.

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: new dad. I have younger kids too, control what you can control.  We’re an adaptable species, we’ll be fine. Keep perspective that the news never reports the good things because it doesn’t sell. Everything will be alright.  People have been claiming the end of the world since forever.
Keith Law: Sometimes the world does end, so to speak. Dictators get elected. Stable countries collapse. Nothing is permanent.

Mucho: Does it seem like there’s any chance the M’s go hitter at 15, or is it basically down to Yesavage/Cijntje?
Keith Law: I keep hearing pitching for them.
Keith Law: Those are the main two names but there could be others.

Mike: From last year’s draft, would your rather have Teel, who is doing well in AA and is a catcher, or Jenkins who has a higher upside, but is in low A ball? The scarcity of catchers seems makes me actually think this is closer than it likely is…thanks,
Keith Law: Pretty sure I had them ranked 6th and 5th, respectively, on draft day, so I’d say that’s a toss-up.

Jeremy Haber: Are Jac C. and C. Condon destined to be 1Bs, and if so, why are they projected top-5 picks considering how that has gone recently (Vaughn, Torkelson)?
Keith Law: Please read what I wrote about Condon.

Matt: Biden is fine. You know Trump is gonna pick some batshit VP Qanon believer that Harris will eviscerate in a debate. He just has to stem the tide until then.
Keith Law: I don’t think the debates matter that much in the end. I think the endless media coverage matters a lot more. I was pleased to see the NYT editorial board belatedly write something about how Trump is a danger to our country.

JK: Have you followed the NY Times best books of the 21st century list?  Thoughts?
Keith Law: OK, I just scanned it (I’d only seen 100-81 before). The ones I’ve read are mostly worthy; I think Trust is overrated, perhaps here for recency bias, and seeing Alice Munro on there after the stories this week revealed what a shitty human being she was makes me queasy, but seems like a decent enough list. I do think they got the wrong Adichie book, though. Half of a Yellow Sun is far better than Americanah.

chewbalka: Safe to assume you’ll do a midseason update after the draft? Thanks for everything you do, it really helps these days.
Keith Law: yes, I always do one a week or so post-draft, where I consider the just-drafted guys (and assume they sign, which is usually true but not 100%).

Luke: Chances of Angels taking Rainer or Griffin?
Keith Law: Zero.

addoeh: Trump is more likely to have his own health concerns become front and center or say something dumb about an important issue, like when he said women who get an abortion should be prosecuted.  Oh wait, that’s already happened and not really covered.
Keith Law: Yep. And his speeches are rambling messes – you can see video and transcripts if you look for a minute. For some reason, they don’t generate the same headlines even in the mainstream (that is, non-rightwing) media.

Jacob: Do you have takeaways from the Cape so far this summer? In this draft class, ‘25, or ‘26?
Keith Law: I have absolutely no idea what’s happening on the Cape. I am focused on the draft that is happening in three days.

Mucho: Are teams concerned that Gillen might have chronic injury issues, or just that his arm hasn’t bounced back from the labrum tear?
Keith Law: That his arm hasn’t bounced back. I haven’t heard “chronic injury issues” from anyone.

Dan S: Even with his hitting struggles, how many teams would want KeBryan Hayes in a trade?  Is he someone you’d trade away or trade for?
Keith Law: I highly doubt he’s available but I bet you there are teams looking at him as a buy-low guy of sorts. The Pirates have had so many hitters underperform in the majors, especially in terms of power and hard contact, in the last decade.
Keith Law: Also, I think almost every team without an established 3b would want him.

Danny: Are you surprised by the links to Tommy White and Blake Burke to the Yankees in the first round? Last time they went something akin to that route in the first round (or first pick) was Eric Jagielo in 2013.
Keith Law: Yes but 1) they tend to go their own way in the draft and 2) I’ve heard them linked to a lot of names who’d be for later rounds, I think. They may just be holding their cards close to the vest on the first round. I know they value exit velo a ton but Oppenheimer usually prefers athletes.

Danny: Do you think Dakota Jordan could/is likely to fall to the Yankees at 53?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Darkness: Who are some of the really high-grade character guys this year, a la Nick Solak from a few years back?
Keith Law: I absolutely could not care less about who the nicest white guys in the draft are, sorry.

Jim: Trump looks and sounds like the same guy he was in 2015, for better and worse. Biden in 2015 vs. Biden in 2024 looks like he’s had a lobotomy in the interim. It’s obvious why one is a much bigger issue.
Keith Law: Trump’s threat was insufficiently covered in 2015-16, too.

Matt: One huge concern of mine is Project 2025. Sooner or later the GOP WILL win- whether it’s this year or 4-8 years from now. And the christofascism will be implemented into our laws.
Keith Law: It’s already happening in the south. Oklahoma forcing the Bible into schools – although the late Daniel Dennett probably would have approved, knowing kids will read it and see how often it contradicts itself etc. – and Louisiana forcing the Ten Commandments into classrooms … it’s all indoctrination. And I thought these folks were against indoctrination in public schools!

Josh: Is Kristian Campbell becoming a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tim: The consensus on this years draft is its not very deep.  So if you are a HS player who gets drafted in the middle to late rounds does it make sense to go to college with the assumption 3 years from now will probably also not be a very deep draft?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take that bet. Three years is an eon in baseball terms. Charlie Condon wasn’t on the radar out of HS; Travis Bazzana wasn’t in the same hemisphere as the top HS guys in 2021, literally.

Brian in NoVA: The main difference between Trump now vs in 2016 is that the institutions and supposed safeguards put in place by the Constitution have been greatly weakened by the Courts. There will also be no adults in the room to slow him down this time if he gets elected.
Keith Law: This is also accurate. The adults in the room will be enabling him and the Project 2025 people.
Keith Law: Honestly, the Democrats should be pushing two messages – abortion rights and Project 2025.
Keith Law: A few folks have asked some character/makeup questions about specific draft players. I’m avoiding those because I have made that mistake in the past, spreading that kind of gossip, and while sometimes it’s right, it’s unverifiable and I don’t want to hurt anyone’s draft stock based on innuendo.

Danny: You saw Agustin Ramirez a couple weeks ago and I think you said at the time he looked rough at the plate. Any feedback since and how legit is his offensive profile?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him since – and I just said he had a rough night. Didn’t evaluate him either way.

Chris: I think your response of it being Harris or no one to replace Biden demonstrates the problem with the Democratic Party and underscores what got them into this mess to begin with: namely, they treat the nomination as a coronation rather than an open process. It’s also why we got Clinton in 2016 when Biden decided not to run. It leaves voters feeling left out of the process and taken for granted.
Keith Law: I’m saying Harris or no one as a practical matter – if the party passes her over, they risk alienating large groups of multiple voter blocks they need to win. The time for a larger pool of candidates has passed.

UGW: Ready to believe in Jake Irvin?
Keith Law: Maybe when he shows he can get LHB out at a better clip. Guys with large platoon splits don’t last as starters until they close them.

Danny: How concerned should we be about Roderick Arias and Spencer Jones’s K rates?
Keith Law: Way more on Jones due to his age. Arias would be in Staten Island if Rob Manfred hadn’t gone all General Sherman through short-season ball.

Salty: Keith – when watching upper-minors games, do you notice any talent or maybe diminished player development due to the contraction of teams a few years ago, or is that too general of a topic to comment on?
Keith Law: The rumor is MLB is going to try to cut another level from the minors. I think that’s the absolute stupidest idea I’ve heard in 20 years. You’re destroying the product. We are already seeing the harm done to players from the loss of a level (technically two, advanced rookie + short-season). So … let’s make the problem worse?
Keith Law: That answer applies to both questions.

Alex: Sebastian Walcott- on schedule for an 18 year old in High-A?
Keith Law: Ahead.

Mike J: Hey Keith, thoughts on what Leo Jimenez can do if he’s the starting SS rest of the way due to Bichette missing time with injury or getting dealt? Is a league average WAR (good defense, below average bat) reasonable or do you think he’ll struggle out of the gate?
Keith Law: I don’t predict what guys will do in half a season but I think long term he’s a regular or better.

Jimmy: I would guess cintje goes before brecht just bc brecht viewed as rp and?
Keith Law: Brecht isn’t viewed as a reliever, but he has more reliever risk because of his lack of command/control and the need to help him get a more consistent arm swing. He’s raw for a college arm, but has big upside in his size, athleticism, and arm strength (both on the FB and SL, so this isn’t just pure velo).

Tim: So the Democrats should run a fear-based campaign centered around the idea that tens of millions of their fellow citizens are trying to turn the country into Nazi Germany, while providing little to no positive messaging about their candidate or his/her plans for the future?
Keith Law: Yeah, Tim. That’s exactly what I meant. ?

Salty: More contraction is wild.  Everyone I know with kids that have taken them to the Lakewood Blue Claws talks about how great a time everyone had, and I’m sure that’s a sentiment shared by many other ML parks across the country.  There has to be a better way to either market or support that product then just letting them die out.
Keith Law: I know some people at MLB look at that and say, ‘why are we paying the players for minor league owners to reap the profits?’ instead of saying, hey, these teams are providing us with a service of value, giving prospects a place to play, where we just have to pay their salaries but don’t have to worry about running entire teams.

Mike: Was going to ask about the Phillies and Vance Honeycutt and realized you mocked him to the Phillies this morning. Teams really that concerned he won’t hit enough in the pros that he falls that far despite all of the other tools?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “falling” … as far as I can tell, no hitter has ever gone in the first round after striking out 80+ times that spring.

RoyalBlue: I read Hader comparisons with Hagen Smith. Do you see reliever risk?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, but there is no comparison here. That’s just bad.

Danny: What chance (is there a chance) Waldschmidt makes it to the Yankees?
Keith Law: Highly doubt it.

Kendall: I think one of the big issues is that the whole republic was based on everyone acting in good faith.  It’s not like the Supreme Court ever had an army available to enforce the Civil Rights Act or Roe.  Thankfully, everyone mostly did act in good faith for a long time, but it seems now that one party has decided to stop.
Keith Law: Yep. And those SCOTUS justices appear to be available for purchase.

Kevin S.: There was an open primary process.  Nobody of substance lined up to run against Biden, and quite frankly I can’t think of a single example of when a serious primary challenge worked out for the incumbent party (whether successful or not).  At this point, there are practical and structural reasons why harris is the only alternative if Biden withdraws.
Keith Law: Yes. There may be a really strong case here that Biden and his camp should have planned for a strategic withdrawal from the 2024 race last fall, but they didn’t, so the options right now are limited.

Michael: I know Amaya didn’t have a ton of at bats in the minors but do you see any chance that he develops into an acceptable everyday catcher? He’s looked terrible all years.
Keith Law: I am really surprised at how bad he’s looked at the plate. I know a lot of people who at least thought he’d hit for some power/hard contact, and I would put myself in the group too. He’s done none of that.

Adam: Does AJSS have a 3rd starter future? If not what is he missing?
Keith Law: A viable third pitch.
Keith Law: Gotta go see a man about a dog … no, really, I have to go to the vet to pick up medicine for the dog. I’ll be contributing to the Athletic’s live draft blog throughout Sunday night and will write up my thoughts on day one for subscribers for Monday morning, and if I have anything new at all I’ll update the mock before the draft begins too. Thanks as always for reading!