My first mock draft of 2024 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.
Keith Law: So you say I got a funny face. Klawchat.
Mike R: I loved the “Thick as a Brick” reference at the top of the last chat.
Keith Law: I was a big Jethro Tull fan when I was in college, then kind of lost interest for a while. They used “Teacher” in Baby Reindeer (deserves an Emmy for best use of a song in a limited series) and it got me back into them in the last few weeks.
J: Cleveland clearly likes-and is good at-acquiring and developing hit tool driven 2B. Assuming they have Condon and Bazzana graded equally do you think they should double down on that profile or take the player who’s profile would be unique in the org
Keith Law: They should take whoever they think is the best player. Period. You don’t pick first very often and you don’t want to screw it up like the Phils did in 2016.
James: With respect to James Wood, outside of the improved numbers, have you seen or gotten reports that he’s actually taken a step forward in some of the areas of concern that you had for him coming into this season?
Keith Law: His slider recognition seems to be way, way improved from last year. I’m a little skeptical of any player’s improved plate discipline with the ABS in play in AAA, but he seems to have made a real change.
Rick: I know this is about 2024, but as an Astros fan with a likely high pick, how strong is the 2025 draft?
Keith Law: I have no idea. I avoid worrying about next year’s draft until the current one is over, especially since such early impressions are often way off.
Neal: I’m a White Sox fan trying to warm up to the idea of taking a hitter without positional value (to be fair-our guys don’t really hit at the less valuable positions either). I saw Jac as 3 doubles this year. Is this a no wheels kind of slugger? I know he’s hit a lot of home runs, but Condon has 18 doubles by comparison. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s a very all-or-nothing approach for Cags and I think that’s why some teams are just not on him in the top ten. He swings a lot, he chases a lot, and he’s trying to pull everything. That’s how you end up with all singles and homers but very very few 2b/3b – and you’re correct to worry about what it means going forward.
Punk in Drublic: any updates to the profiles of Owen Cassie, Thayron Liranzo, or Cam Collier based on their 2024 season?
Keith Law: I think all 3 have been pretty much as expected so far, other than Liranzo hitting a little worse on BIP. Was hoping Caissie would cut down on the K’s with the benefit of ABS in AAA.
Drew: It’s not Memorial Day and there are already two public videos of the Nationals coaching staff and CJ Abrams disagreeing about his approach at the plate. 1) how much should an MLB team be telling a player how to swing (feels very Stanford’y) and 2) how concerning should it be that there is such a visible disagreement between the staff and best player?
Keith Law: I hate that stuff becoming public regardless of the player and org – that belongs behind closed doors, IMO. It doesn’t reflect well on the coaching staff, including the manager. That said, it is absolutely the coaching staff’s job to work with players on their swings and their approaches.
Punk in Drublic: It feels like based on his stat line Jonah Tong has shown some marked improvement this season (specifically with his reduction of walks). Have you heard anything about him imparting a significant way or is it more SSS?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s legit. Would probably be a top 100 guy at this point. Fastball is easily plus in every way.
Dan: With Mitchell Parker and Jake Irving doing well (111 and 128 ERA+, respectively), Andry Lara blowing up seemingly out of nowhere–are the Nationals actually developing pitchers?
Keith Law: No – Parker’s start to his career looks like a raging fluke. He’s giving up more hard contact than the opponents’ avg would imply and is lucky he hasn’t allowed more homers. Both he and Irvin have large platoon splits already, and I would expect that to get exposed as teams stack lineups with LHB.
Sam: How much success does a prospect need to have with unconventional mechanics/skill set before it stops being a concern?
Keith Law: Kind of depends on the mechanics/skill in question. For pitchers with weird deliveries – and this year’s draft has a LOT – I think you focus more on the stuff, and how it plays, and make small adjustments based on your concerns about the delivery, rather than just saying “NOPE” to a guy like Yesavage, who I don’t think has ever had an arm issue and who is dominating with the FB/split. I think it’s more fair to be skeptical of, say, a hitter with a really unusual swing (Chase Delauter comes to mind, although the poor guy is hurt again), because that seems to be way more of an impediment in the majors than an unusual delivery.
Keith Law: Sorry for the non-answer.
Paul in SF: Thanks for all the hard work! This draft doesn’t have the top 5 of last year, so comparatively, how many “TOP 25” guys do you see overall? I would assume Condon and Bazzana, but anyone else? Just curious as to the difference at top.
Keith Law: That’s probably it. And I’m not totally sure that either of those guys cracks last year’s top 5.
M: Christopher Morel’s plate discipline has really improved – walk rate way up, K rate real down, some bad BABIP luck this year. OTOH his defense has been horrendous and he is on pace for 1 WAR again. Is this a player worth investing in?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH. I did notice the plate discipline stuff you mentioned … he’s also hitting the ball on the ground a decent amount more often than last year, and I wonder if that’s all connected, that he’s trading some whiff for some less favorable contact. If Shaw, who’s also had some awful BABIP luck, performs well enough to get to the majors this summer, he should get the 3B job.
Matt: I noticed Skenes pitched 4 innings but had like 20 pitches that were over 100 mph. Wouldn’t it be better if he threw 96 but was able to go 6 or 7 innings? Or is there not a big difference in 4-5 mph with regards to stress on the arm? It just seems ill advised to throw as hard as you can all the time.
Keith Law: In theory, yes, I agree with you, but the unknowable variable here is how much it taxes Skenes’ arm to throw 100 versus 96. I’m hoping that the splinker helps take some of the pressure off him to throw 100, because the four-seamer doesn’t play as well at the lower end of his range – it doesn’t have much ride or run, while the splinker has a lot more vertical break and I think hitters are going to have a really hard time hitting it anywhere but into the ground.
Mj: Is Brett Bateman a prospect? No power at all, but gets on base at a really high clip and is fast. Or am I just dreaming of lead off men of my youth?
Keith Law: I’d really have to see him do something in AA given his age/experience before buying into it.
SCG: Keith, first of all, thanks for all your work put and also for the chats! Do you see Vance Honeycutt going in the first two rounds? Is it possible he moves into the first round?
Keith Law: It is possible he goes in the first, but on merit he’s a second rounder, and I know teams are well aware of his holes at the plate. He’s at a 30% K rate in the ACC this year, and everyone remembers Jud Fabian, who is punching out too often while repeating AA this year.
Keith Law: It’s a similar profile: ++ power, ++ CF defense, too much whiff.
Braydon: In your mock you said the class overall is one of the weakest you can remember. How does the Top 11 specifically compare to the top of recent drafts?
Keith Law: It’s weaker. A strong top of the draft will nearly always color our collective opinion of a draft.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Your latest mock has the Orioles pointing to several position players, but with Burnes heading out of town, DL Hall gone, and control/command question marks on Povich and McDermott, which pitchers would you have them draft?
Keith Law: I’d have them take the best player available, and in my mock I project what I believe teams will do, not what they should do. I don’t think the O’s have taken a pitcher in the first round under Elias, and I know from mutual acquaintances that the Appel-Aiken-Whitley picks have soured him on doing so again. (Who could blame him?)
Z Chow: Big fan of your work, Keith. Do you collect any baseball cards or memorabilia at all?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not much for collecting; I do have a large board game collection, but I’d only say about 8-10 of them are ones I have “collected” versus games I like and think I might play again. I have a first edition of Egizia, for example, that is worth a decent amount, and the second edition changed some of the rules and the board in a way I don’t care for, so I’m hanging on to this.
Chris: What kind of trade package would you be comfortable sending over for Luis Robert? Vs what would you be asking for if you were the white Sox?
Keith Law: They should ask for the Juan Soto deal (the first one, with Wood and Gore and Abrams). He’s got three years left after this one, including two club options, and that is worth a TON – he’s under control but you have the choice to walk away if something goes wrong.
William C: What can the Athletics reasonably expect in return for Mason Miller? Follow up, what would you give up for him? I figure the answers differ given your thoughts on closers.
Keith Law: If I’m trading for Miller, I’m valuing him as if he had two years of control left, because his injury history says expecting anything beyond that is pure fantasy. Even that might be optimistic but if you think he’s only good for another half-season you’re just not trading for him.
Heather: Do you ever watch college baseball on television, or is that just a completely useless way of scouting?
Keith Law: I watch it but it’s not great for scouting – the angles are all wrong – more for just getting the feel for how the players are playing rather than breaking down mechanics. Can certainly see how a player is approaching an at bat, for example.
Matt: What’s with all these athletes being MAGA Chuds? Schilling, Butker, LT, Mariano Rivera, etc. It’s amazing, really.
Keith Law: Those guys don’t all have equivalent beliefs, mind you. But I think they all have similar religious backgrounds, and for some reason, the evangelical movement has moved very, very far to the right – even though I think that’s inconsistent with the secular aspects of Christ’s philosophy (omitting questions of his divinity).
Jeremy: Thru 119 PA, Rowdy Tellez is batting .178/.252/.234 (.486) with a 42 OPS+,42WRC+ after 351 PA batting .215/.291/.376 (.667) with a 81OPS+, 78WRC+ in 2023. How long will the Pirates take to finally start playing him less, and why hasn’t it happened yet?
Keith Law: I don’t know, and I don’t know.
Keith Law: Tellez has over 2000 MLB PA at this point and he’s almost dead replacement level. You have to have someone better than him in AAA or you’ve failed.
Santaspirt: I either miss your chats and remember the question I had for you, or I show up to your chats and forget what I wanted to ask you. There is no in between. Anyway, great mock. I only have the Athletic because of your writing.
Keith Law: Thank you! Maybe you’ll remember before 2 pm.
Rafael G.: What is Coby Mayo’s Ceiling? He is hitting the cover off the ball, but does he have a chance for passable defense at third?
Keith Law: If you’re betting on an ultimate position, I’d say RF > 1B > 3B. But I don’t think it’s impossible he stays at third, in a vacuum, assuming he didn’t die from the lack of oxygen. They just have a lot of infielders who are better.
Danny: The Yankees have pushed recent draft picks to play premium positions that the general consensus did not agree (Wells at C, Sweeney staying at SS and Jones in CF). Do you think they could do the same with Jordan, Waldschmidt or Moore?
Keith Law: Yes. Even when I don’t agree that the player can stay there, I think it’s a smart developmental approach. What do you lose by playing a guy at the toughest (and most valuable) possible position he could play? Very little, I think. And maybe you prove the consensus wrong.
Josh: Assume if the Guardians go well below slot at 1:1 it’s just a money saving move and a mistake? Those vanity senate runs by Matt Dolan can’t be cheap.
Keith Law: It would be to go after some over-slot guys with later picks. I’ve heard several times that this is their plan. I just don’t think this draft offers the same quantity of over-slot candidates that last year did, or even 2021 when the Pirates took Henry Davis well under slot and then got two of their top prospects today in Chandler and Solometo.
Joe: Possible we are seeing a delayed breakout for Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil?
Keith Law: I had Schmidt on my breakout list this year so of course I’m hoping that’s true. Gil has always had a great arm, but he’s leading the AL in walks, and it’s especially acute vs LHB.
Dr. Bob: People complain about the Dodgers pricing other teams out of competition. I understand that contracts like they gave to Ohtani and Yamamoto might not fit their budgets, but they could spend much less money to build scouting and player development systems like L.A. has. That’s how they get players like Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez.
Keith Law: That so few teams have maintained scouting, development, and R&D staffs like the Dodgers is baffling to me. We can all joke about Dodgers Devil Magic, but jesus it’s right there in front of you. They employ more people in those departments, and they have those departments working together as well as any organization in baseball. It’s not a secret. If you made me a GM or President of BB Ops, I would copy them. Like, print the org chart, change the names, rock and roll.
addoeh: Ryan Sloan a second rounder or compensatory round candidate?
Keith Law: I’d say between picks 20 and 40. Over-slot if he gets past 30. I was supposed to see him last night but the rain was coming so I came home and saw Bryce Meccage instead.
Geoff: What is going on with Bazzana all of a sudden becoming the top guy in most recent mock drafts? Is it solely because of that report from ESPN? Or is there something that is going around that everyone knows about?
Keith Law: What report from ESPN? Bazzana’s been a 1-1 candidate all spring, and he’s had a tremendous year. He and Condon are the only two realistic candidates for 1-1 in my view, although I mentioned a third name in the mock today because I heard Cleveland might consider it.
Keith Law: BTW, I was able to see a live feed of Konnor Griffin’s game last night. It was tied, and with no one on and two outs, Griffin’s coach intentionally walked a batter – the potential winning run – only to see him come around and score. It has to be one of the worst unforced managerial errors I’ve ever seen.
Gabriel: Keith you were always a fan of Mathew Lugo. Is his current production a sign of him finally meeting expectations or is it just a player that is now too old for AA
Keith Law: He’s repeating the level and still striking out too often, but I do think the power surge is real. He might still find a way to the majors.
Justin Y: Kevin Alcantara just can’t seem to get over the hump it feels like. Is he just going to be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: He’s 21 in AA. He’s younger than most of the college guys about to get drafted.
Troy: Would sending Chourio down be a good idea or is there just not much for him to learn in AAA?
Keith Law: Don’t think he has anything to learn in AAA. The gap between that level and the majors is enormous. Teams have to adjust and be willing to let hitters come up and struggle for a few months as they adjust to better pitching. It was true with Holliday and with Henry Davis and Kjerstad too.
Guest: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. A’s fan here who thought we should have drafted Shaw but not too upset w/Wilson. How would you rank Shaw last year vs other 2B Bazzana & Wetherholt this year? Thanks
Keith Law: Shaw’s comparable to those guys as hitters, probably more power than Wetherholt, less pure hit tool. Can’t comment on Wetherholt’s defense at this point since he’s barely played the field (and barely moved when he has).
Matt: When Harper was drafted, how did teams know he was a generational talent? What set him aside that everyone knew the Nationals were taking him as opposed to a normal draft where you hope the pick pans out?
Keith Law: We’d seen him against older competition since he was 15. He was as obvious a 1-1 pick as we might ever see.
Dugan: What is going on with Jack Leiter? He seemed to dominate AAA, but has been totally lost in all of his MLB games. Anything in particular going on?
Keith Law: Yeah, his 4-seamer has guys racing to the bat rack. He might as well walk to the plate and put it on a tee. Hitters will tell you if a pitch isn’t any good, and they’re telling us, loudly. At this point I’d send him down and see if he can throw a decent two-seamer because the four-seamer is way too straight and doesn’t have other attributes to make up for it.
David: Do you see any chance Condon or Bazzana fall to Rox at 3? and would they still take one of Smith/Burns if one of those guys were still on the board?
Keith Law: I did outline a scenario like that in the mock. I think they’d take the hitter if one fell.
Justin: You previously had some not so favorable reports about Jacob Gonzalez based on what you saw last year. There’s some talk of changes to his swing along with some pretty solid stats to start the year. Have you noticed a change in his swing and are you feeling better about him going forward?
Keith Law: No. He’s too advanced for high-A anyway and we’re not seeing a big change in outcomes.
Tom: Have you seen Tegan Kuhns pitch and what do you think of him?
Keith Law: Tried to see early, got rained out (2″ in two days), and since then I’ve heard the velocity has tapered. Think he’s slid out of any first-round consideration; there’s already a bias against 6′ HS RHP, and if he’s not showing elite stuff maybe he ends up at NC State and tries to be a top 10 pick in three years.
Matt: Does Max Clark have a chance at AA this year?
Keith Law: I think he’ll finish there.
Adam D.: With the draft class being as weak as it is, who would you say is the “best of the rest” after the top-tier guys? One pitcher and one hitter to look out for?
Keith Law: I’ll do an updated ranking next week – I was going to do one this week and the mock next Wednesday, but decided to switch them – but the hitter would be Tibbs and the pitcher would be Cijntjie.
Luis: Hi Keith! Great content as usual! Any new board games worth checking out to play with my 9 & 12 year old kids ?
Keith Law: Trio, Mycelia, Wandering Towers are the best fits for that age group I’ve played recently. I need to play Pixies again but liked it on first play.
cross: when you say you have teams on college bats, do you look at their draft history and traits that they like when you link them to a bat in said draft or do you go off of intel? (asking for the marlins / blue jays)
Keith Law: Both, but draft history only matters if the decision-makers are the same.
Jackie: Do you watch “The Amazing Race”? The contestants were in the Dominican Republic last week, and Bartolo Colon made an appearance. He looked good — I’d say about 30-40 pound less than his playing weight. Truth be told, I had no idea he had finally retired. If you had told me he was starting for the Mets last week, I would’ve believed you.
Keith Law: I was hoping he’d stage one more comeback because he was the last MLB player older than I am. (I do not watch the show.)
Matt: What’s really odd is these teams skimping on R&D will also go out and overspend on free agents. Like, you have the money. Put it to good use.
Keith Law: Right, I’d rather have all of that staff than an $8 million free agent who’s unlikely to deliver the same ROI.
Guest: What are your thoughts on Christian Scott? Looking like a legit #3 SP?
Keith Law: I could see that. I said he had above-average starter potential when I wrote him up this winter. But he’s never even thrown 90 innings in a season, so I have a hard time just saying he’s a legit #3 when we assume that pitcher is at least throwing 150-160 innings.
Dugan: Is Matt Wilkinson just overpowering lower levels, or are the skills there real and ready to play at higher levels?
Keith Law: I know in juco he was in the upper 80s and succeeded by changing speeds to get inexperienced hitters out. I don’t have any info from this year, sorry, but I’d be shocked if he was suddenly throwing gas.
Mike: How far out has Jenkins injury pushed him? Does this delay his progress by a year, or it doesn’t matter all that much? thanks,
Keith Law: Walker? Don’t think this matters in the long run.
Richard: Is Luke Holman a back end starter or does he have mid-rotation upside?
Keith Law: Delivery is really iffy for durability. I know he had a longer arm stroke before going to LSU … maybe someone drafts him and cleans it up enough so that he can be more of a back-end starter.
Justin: If you’re the White Sox, do you trade Robert, Fedde, Crochet, etc?
Keith Law: Yes. Anything that’s not nailed down.
Greg: Have you heard anything about an Owen Murphy breakout? I’m just scouting the stat line but it looks good so far.
Keith Law: No breakout, just a good command/control guy dominating hitters who don’t have the plate discipline to compete. He doesn’t have a swing-and-miss pitch in the arsenal.
J: I struggle with players like James Tibbs. I feel like if there was more confidence that he would be a true middle of the order bat, he would be grouped with Kurtz/Cags. But since he seems to be a tier below them, I’m wondering how valuable is a ~6 hole hitter with negative defensive value?
Keith Law: Is he a 6-hole hitter or maybe a 2-hole guy? I think that’s the question teams are facing. I know models love him.
Marc: Keith, the pirates have chosen to go with a 6-man rotation with the unstated but clearly underlying goal of limiting innings for their young pitchers. Is there any evidence that extending time between starts is good for arm health? Also wondered what you thought of Skenes’s first start in the big leagues. Thanks!
Keith Law: My understanding is that more rest is better than less, but I don’t know of evidence of whether six-man rotations are better than five-man. I’d rather see this, and then guys pitching a little deeper into games, than the alternative of a five-man rotation and Jared Jones coming out at 59 pitches.
Mike: Was hoping you could opine on WVU as a baseball program. Back 10+ years ago when i was there, they barely even had a program. Now with manoah, means, whetherholt and i think a few others, theyre generating a lotta talent. Any idea why?
Keith Law: Being in the Big 12 with a tremendous facility has to help from recruiting to development.
Nick: How does Condon compare to Kris Bryant as a prospect coming out of college?
Keith Law: I think Condon’s a better athlete – little twitchier, might stay up the middle – but Bryant had more raw power. HRs are up all over college baseball this year. Every time I go to a college game and see how the ball flies, I wonder, who’s been screwing with this thing?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … plans may shift slightly with my upcoming travel but I hope to have a top 100 draft ranking up on Wednesday of next week. Thanks for all of your questions and for reading, as always. Stay safe.