Klawchat 4/18/24.

My top 50 draft prospects ranking is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: I need to lighten my load. Klawchat.

Hogie: You said during spring training that you didn’t think James Wood was ready for the majors. Have you changed your mind at all given his start in Rochester?
Keith Law: No, because it’s April 18th. It’s a minuscule sample.

Guest: have you seen Cade McGee at Texas Tech. Saw him the other night against Arkansas. Good power, looks athletic, been hit by a pitch 20 times this year which has, along with 31 walks really helped his OBP which is around .500
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Texas Tech, but McGee isn’t showing much power or hard contact in games. I also don’t view high HBP totals as a particularly valuable skill.

JD: Is Pages ready to stick at the major league level or do you anticipate this will be a short stay for him and that he needs more time at AAA?
Keith Law: He was really good in the 50 games he did play last year and this year around the shoulder injury, with what looked like a more advanced approach than he’d had in 2022. “Short stay” is really about team needs, but if they’re willing to give him the time to adjust I think he can have a positive WAR this year.

Taylor Swift: Will you be listening to the Tortured Poets Department tonight?
Keith Law: I didn’t know that album was coming out tonight. (I knew it was coming out at some point.)

J: 18 year-old Nelson Rada is at AA for the Angels for no discernible reason.  Why is Nelson Rada at AA? Why skip High-A? Why?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Lucas: If I remember correctly, Jordan Westburg was seen as a little bit of a gutsy pick in 2020 because there were some swing and miss issues at Mississippi State. How has he gotten better in a relatively short period of time?
Keith Law: He was a COVID year pick, and was off to a good start at MSU. It’s quite possible he’d already started making that adjustment and we didn’t see it in enough of a sample because the world ended.

Drew: As a Cleveland fan, it seems like there’s separation between Condon and everyone else. How worried should I be they’ll cut a deal with a lesser player in a draft that seems weak for overslot guys later?
Keith Law: Very.

Guest: What should we make of Jackson Hollidays slow start at the plate?
Keith Law: Nothing.

Mike: Mike Trout is good at baseball.
Keith Law: He is. But go look at what he did in his first call-up.

BC: With Morel playing improved defense at third recently, is there still a path to the Cubs for Matt Shaw this year?
Keith Law: Improved defense? He’s already at -2 OAA and it’s not even May. Come on.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Matthew Etzel showed up in your Orioles prospect honorable mentions – so far he’s had a handful of multi-hit games (admittedly aided by miserable MiLB infield defense), but do you have any read on his CF play?
Keith Law: No idea, haven’t seen him or much minor league stuff yet while I focus on the draft.

Derek: Hi Keith, been following your work for years and why I paid for ESPN and now the Athletic.  Surprised to see you venture to more in front of the camera with Stadium.  I’ll admit I haven’t had a chance to watch your show yet and didn’t seem like I could go back and watch it.  Curious what made you decide to work with Stadium?  Will it impact any of your writing with the Athletic?
Keith Law: They approached me. It won’t affect my writing – they’re two separate deals.

Heston Kjerstad: Would I be a better piece in the O’s lineup right now than, say, O’Hearn or Mountcastle?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jason: Does DL hall profile more as a reliever long term?
Keith Law: It’s a real risk. I’m surprised that his issue has been lots of contact versus him just not throwing strikes.

J: Brandon McCarthy was talking about the Pirates’ handling of Skenes thus far at AAA, saying, “what are we doing?” Jared Jones was pulled by the Pirates after 59 pitches and 5 innings. At what point do teams stop ‘building’ pitchers up, and let them pitch? Not overworking young arms is one thing; this feels preposterous, counter-productive, and not based in anything but fear. Sorry if the actual question got lost in the shuffle, but I suppose it’s: When will this stop?
Keith Law: I really think we have enough evidence to say that limiting pitch counts reduces the incidence of shoulder injuries, but that limiting them to this extent doesn’t reduce the incidence entirely and it doesn’t reduce the incidence of UCL tears. I haven’t asked any Pirates people what’s going on, but I have the same question from afar. Let them pitch reasonable workloads and respond accordingly if they report pain or discomfort or fatigue (or if pitch data shows it).

Gordon: Didn’t think Michael Busch would be this good this quick. Does he really have this much power or is he still a 20 hr guy?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a 20 homer guy … I mean, maybe he’s a 24 homer guy, there’s always a range around those estimates, but I wouldn’t overreact to a hot start. He’s a good player. If he’s a superstar, I’d be surprised.

Justin: Obviously baseball is a very dangerous workplace as far as injuries go.   If any of our workplaces caused ligament surgeries every day, I’m not sure they’d still exist.  What is it about baseball and sports in general that make it ethical to continue subjecting people to activities that are clearly awful for the human body?  Informed consent?
Keith Law: The potential for seven- or eight-figure salaries.

J: Matt Shaw crushing AA (SSS and all that). Odds he makes the bigs this season? Before September?
Keith Law: I said before the season I thought he’d be up to play third base at some point – I still think more like midyear, and that they’ll push Shaw to AAA first.

Garrett: What’s your take on how CJ Abrams has looked so far?
Keith Law: Also a SSS, but I’m at least happy to see that he’s doing what I said he’d do and making much harder contact. There’s something sustainable here.

RL: Do you think lack of sticky stuff is contributing to arm injuries as some pitchers have said?
Keith Law: I’ve seen no evidence to back that up. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong – I just can’t support or debunk it.

Jacob: Thoughts on Rangers calling up Leiter?
Keith Law: I think he can help in some role – the arm action was cleaner in the spring and his body looked better. Only faced 57 batters in AAA but he at least was way more in the zone.

Steve: M’s seem to have been very aggressive with Clase. Have you heard of any adjustments that he has made that might allow him to stick, or is he destined to K too much?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he’s changed anything. Contact is going to be a chronic issue for him.

Mario: In your piece you noted that the draft class isn’t great after the second tier. Would this make teams less likely to try and spread out money and pick signability players in the top 10
Keith Law: Yes, it’s a terrible year to do that. Your best hope for an over-slot guy at your second pick is going to be a high school pitcher, and while I’m fine with teams taking those guys with later picks, I wouldn’t take a lesser player in the top 10 this year just to go get a better HS arm.

MagicOriole: What do you attribute Colton Cowser’s hot start to? Has he changed much from your prospect evaluation?
Keith Law: A .500 BABIP.

Rick: With all the recent call ups, who’s gonna be your mid-season Top Prospect?
Keith Law: It almost has to be Ethan Salas. He’s the top guy still in the minors, and if I did a live update now he’d be #1.

Nate: From a Stros fan…how much longer do you think it’ll take Jim crane to realize Jeff Bagwell doesn’t, in fact know baseball half as well as he thinks he does?
Keith Law: They have to fail at some point. Or I guess maybe waste another $50 million.

Mike: Think Christian Scott’s strong start indicates hes a potential number 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think his strong start indicates anything different from what we thought about him three weeks ago.

JR: Did you read Shogun? Are you watching/planning to watch the FX series airing right now? I’ve never read, but am really enjoying the show.
Keith Law: Never read. I know my parents liked the 1980s miniseries. They watched all of those like the Thorn Birds.

Jake: Any reason why there are so few HS guys you are high on compared to other years? Is Covid why they didn’t develop or is it just a fluke?
Keith Law: They’re just not out there this year, unfortunately. I don’t think there’s a reason – COVID didn’t hurt the 2023 HS class, for example. Just a down year for HS bats. The result will probably be some of them get drafted higher than area scouts expect – I hear more sandwich/second on Carter Johnson, for example, but I bet he sneaks into the late first.

Caleb: SSS alert!  But Masyn Winn has performed better-than-advertised at the plate so far, especially taking the ball the other way.  Change in approach that might lead to better numbers, or just SSS?
Keith Law: SSS but he’s also hitting the ball quite a bit harder this year, and making some better swing decisions than he did in his callup. That last bit is more in line with the hitter he was in the minors.

Chris: The Red Sox haven’t drafted a pitcher in the first round since 2017 and their farm system certainly reflects that. Could they finally do it this year?
Keith Law: Sure, I am not aware of any rule that prevents them from doing so.

Julie: Thank you for not sounding the alarm on Holliday. He’s less than two years out of high school playing 2nd base every day for a contender. The lineup he’s in is stacked. The O’s can afford for him to go through some growing pains, because the other guys will cover him. He will figure it out in the next few weeks and people will forget his slow start.
Keith Law: And maybe they send him back down at some point. He’ll be fine.

Refugee: Do you think the ball is juiced this year?
Keith Law: I think something is up in the college ranks. Either the ball is different, or the bats are.

I’m Joey Callo…C-allo: Any idea why Atlanta has decided to platoon Jared Kelenic. He didn’t show a platoon split in his breakout year last year and at 24 it seems a little early to pigeon-hole him that way.
Keith Law: He does have a platoon split for his career, and I think between Atlanta trying to win now and the hope that they can develop him into at least a good part-time player, platooning him in the short term is fine.

Kevin: Tanner Houck has added a solid splitter to his arsenal. Any chance he can be a mid rotation starter with this 3 pitch mix?
Keith Law: If that splitter really is the weapon he’s never had for LHB, then yes. That’s always been my main argument against him being a starter.

Alex: Among Braves pitching prospects, Owen Murphy is looking good so far and Hurston Waldrep is struggling. Anything about either of them in the early going that you’d take as grounds for optimism or concern?
Keith Law: It’s two outings for each guy.

Brent: Hey Klaw! Hope you’re enjoying the season more than this ChiSox fan. Boardgame question, have you played Memoir ’44? From the company that made Ticket to Ride. Love history and boardgames. Able to recommend?
Keith Law: Never played it.

Joe: Anything interesting going on with your gardening this year?
Keith Law: We tried to get an early start with our little greenhouse but the weather here has been so bad until this week that I think a lot of our efforts were wasted because we couldn’t transplant, either for cold or for torrential rains. We’re trying mostly to grow stuff that we will definitely eat – right now it’s peas, green beans, radishes, beets (ok that’s just me and my wife), mixed lettuce.

Bill: Gabe Arias for Real ?
Keith Law: Do I think a player with a .417 BABIP is for real? No, sir, I do not.

Sam Roberts: Is Cam Caminiti still a R1 in a better draft year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a first-round bonus guy. That could come after the actual first round ends, but in a strong year maybe he ends up a comp pick.

Tom: What do you about Tegan Kuhns (Gettysburg (PA))?
Keith Law: He’s on the list I posted today.

Bill: Since you’ll be in Chicago weekly….will you be checking out any Northwoods league Games ?
Keith Law: I doubt it. They’re not close to Chicago.

RH: Do you think top college hitters this year will try to force their way to the Angels so they can debut faster?
Keith Law: No, players just don’t have that kind of control over where they’re drafted. I do think the Angels will take whichever guy left on the board could be rushed to the majors this year.

Patrick: Do you see a six-man rotation coming into vogue, in an effort to minimize potential SP injuries?
Keith Law: I don’t see or know of any evidence that it would work. Do guys just exert more effort then because they’ve had the extra day to rest? The one factor for UCL tears which there is some actual research is throwing as hard as you can, as often as you can. In other words, if your personal max velocity is 94, and you sit 93-94 all the time, while personal max velocity is 98 but I sit 95-96 all the time, I might have a little lower risk of a UCL tear than you do.

Yinka Double Dare: How many messages will you send to Montverde begging them to be open on Mondays since that’s when you’re already in the city within a mile or so of them?
Keith Law: As much as I love that place, there are plenty of other places I need to try too.

Andrew: Not a prospect question, but I don’t see/hear anyone complaining about the netting around the ballpark.  What happened?
Keith Law: They’re busy complaining about DEI or trans people or some other non-issue.

Chris P: Hey Klaw, do you see Gage Jump being a starter in the pros and if so, could he likely go in the 2nd round?
Keith Law: He could go in the second round but I don’t think there’s any chance he can start with that delivery.

John: My son (15) just started playing baseball but loves pitching, doesn’t throw hard so he throws off speed mostly is the idea that curveballs shouldn’t be thrown out-dated or does the data support that?  I can’t find reliable information and just want what is best for him
Keith Law: That was an old hypothesis that I don’t think has held up under scrutiny.

James: Jackson Merrill looks better than expected at CF right now. Think he’ll stick there and ever be better than average with the glove?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s a good enough athlete and runner and smart enough kid that he could end up above-average out there. I’ve been pleasantly surprised how quickly he seems to have taken to it.

JR: Any thoughts on current state of college athletics, with unlimited transfers and unregulated NIL money? Has the impact hit college baseball yet? College Basketball/Football players are essentially one year free agents now, lol. On a macrolevel it’s great for the players, on a microlevel, it’s tough to be a fan of school (especially a mid-major school like mine) when the rosters practically turn over every year.
Keith Law: Yes, we see a ton of transfers, especially for players’ draft years, and I say hell yeah. The NCAA exploited players for decades. It’s about time that the players regain some control here.

Jake: SSS and all, but have you heard/seen anything about Marco Luciano changing his approach? A 19% walks rate and a .069 ISO don’t look like the Marco we’ve seen in the past.
Keith Law: tiny sample and it’s the PCL with the ABS half the time.

Jake: A few years ago the Braves got Strider in the 4th round. How did he last that long, especially in what seems like a weakish draft. Any similar hi ceiling, low floor guys this year?
Keith Law: That’s a bit revisionist. Strider blew out and missed 2019, then threw 12 innings in 2020 before the season ended. He was barely seen. As for similar guys … honestly, if I thought there was a Strider type in this draft I’d have had him on the rankings today in the top 20.

Trav: In the limited time I’ve watched Luciano play short, he’s looked awfully… not great. It was surprising how much the Giants publicly positioned him as their plan there before the season. How long can that possibly go on?
Keith Law: The sooner they move him, the better for his development.

Ryan: Druw Jones has struck out 23 times in 40 PAs this year – is he cooked?
Keith Law: 5 Ks two games ago, too. I’m very concerned – maybe the shoulder is still messed up, maybe he’s pressing, but I don’t think you could find anyone who thought he’d struggle like this in low A. I’d consider getting him out of there when the rookie leagues start up on May 4th. Let him go back to the complex, hope he rakes against worse competition, and get him the time with your coaches at the facility. But yeah, this is terrifying.

John: If a team thinks that the 2025 draft is better than this one, would they consider intentionally not signing a pick to get a comp pick in 2025?  Pick 31 in 2025 > pick 30 in 2024?  Too risky?
Keith Law: I get this question almost every year, and my answer is always the same: Absolutely not. It’s the worst idea imaginable, not least because you just increase the chance that someone else is making that pick next year instead of you.

Jackie: Say something positive about the Rockies.  Anything.
Keith Law: Sterlin Thompson can really hit.

Chris P: Who are some of the bigger helium guys so far that are shooting up draft lists?
Keith Law: I’d look at the top 50 today but Lindsey is probably the biggest such name. Tyson Lewis too.

JJ: Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony — which one’s the star, which one’s OK, and which one’s the bust?
Keith Law: I think Mayer and Anthony are stars and Teel is a solid regular.

RoyalBlue: Is Salvy Perez a HOFer?
Keith Law: No.

KMac: 100+ velo is looking more like a curse than a gift. Can you see FOs shying away from 80 grade fastballs in the draft (possibly accepting 6’6”+ relievers)? Or potentially avoiding extensions for this group of talent?
Keith Law: I think teams will start valuing very hard throwing teenagers differently.

Section 34: Seriously, Kjerstad over O’Hearn (1.044 OPS) or Mountcastle (.867 OPS)? Why would a team bench an MLB player who’s performing. We’re not talking about Austin Hays or Ramon Urias.
Keith Law: Could do it for those guys too. Do you think ROH is a 1000 OPS guy (ignoring how much OPS sucks as a stat)? I don’t.

CVD: When a guy like James Wood is dominating AAA at 21 yrs old, and hitting lefties as well, playing good defense, etc- what else does he have to do to get called up?   Just keep doing it for another month?
Keith Law: It’s two weeks. You have to read the calendar.

Kris: Noah Schultz, the next Ryan Anderson or someone that can fill a 4/5 SP role.
Keith Law: If healthy, a high-end starter. High injury risk.

Mike: Going to a game in Charlotte this weekend. Any good places to eat there that you like?
Keith Law: Amelie’s for breakfast/lunch/pastries. Inizio pizza. Customshop for fine dining. I rarely stay in Charlotte when I’m down that way – I fly in there a lot but then drive somewhere else.

Chip: Gun to your head, odds the A’s build a ballpark in Vegas and actually move there?
Keith Law: 25%.

Ernest: I stopped following sports for 10 years and have gotten back into it this year and noticed a pitch called the sweeper. Is this a new pitch or did the slider go through a rebranding?
Keith Law: It’s a variation of a slider. And it doesn’t sweep, which is why I think the name is stupid. My stepdaughters agree that the Yankees’ name for it, the whirlybird, is a much better choice.

Danny: Does 50% strikeout rate in only 50 PA show Roderick Arias is not ready for full season ball?
Keith Law: Not in ~ten games.

Jake: Although he seems cooked now, how do you scout a soft thrower like Kyle Hendricks who has had a remarkable career for a guy out of Dartmouth that barely touched 90 at his peak?
Keith Law: I find those guys incredibly difficult to identify – most guys with that stuff won’t even be big-league starters, or maybe just 5th starters. Did anyone foresee Hendricks having this kind of elite command? The Rangers didn’t. I honestly don’t think the Cubs did either.

Danny: You were on Corbin Caroll during his draft year- how does he compare to Caldwell? Caldwell is even smaller right?
Keith Law: Caldwell is smaller and not as strong. Carroll had more power at teh same age.

Ben: Keith – do you celebrate Thanksgiving?
Keith Law: How does one “celebrate” Thanksgiving? Do I cook a meal and eat it? Yes. I do that a lot of days.

Kris: Salas over Caminero? How close is that one?
Keith Law: It’s not that close.

Heather: Why does the media treat Robert Kennedy as anything other than a crackpot?  If you actually remember his dad, you’re almost in your 70s.  The vast majority of voters in this country weren’t around for the Kennedy Dynasty.  Even Teddy died 15 years ago.  Robert Jr. isn’t Yogi Berra; he’s Dale.
Keith Law: The mainstream media is beshitting itself in this election cycle. It’s embarrassment after embarrassment.

Greg: Any early indications on who the cardinals are looking at for pick 7?
Keith Law: Way too soon.

Dan: Do you think a version of Whitey Ball could work today? As a St. Louis kid it was so much fun watching those sliding pits waiting for someone to run.
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t generate enough runs.

Rob: Do you see Jacob Berry as anything but a bust at this point
Keith Law: I think he’s a bust. What a bad pick that was.

HH: You say trans people are a “non issue” but what have they ever done to prevent foul balls from hitting spectators?;
Keith Law: Fair point!

Mario: In regards to the commenters question about college programs, coaches and universities are free to invest in creating programs where players feel valued, cared for, and want to stay. There’s no rules against it, as it turns out.
Keith Law: Yep. You don’t see a lot of guys transfer out of LSU or Wake Forest.

Patrick: With the time you will spend in Chicago–or really, any of your ‘frequent’ travel spots, do you try to work in an Alinea-type visit?
Keith Law: Those long tasting-menu places aren’t really my cup of tea. I can’t speak to Alinea’s food specifically but I don’t think they’re worth the time or expense.

Ridley: Have you had a chance to check out Polyphia, and, if so, what do ya think? They were originally tagged as “progressive metal,” although “every genre at once” is a better descriptor for the last two albums.
Keith Law: I haven’t but that sounds interesting.

RoyalBlue: Agree on OPS. What’s your go to metric to measure offensive production?
Keith Law: In the majors I prefer to look at wRC+. For prospects I’m less interested in total production than in how they’re getting there.

The Second of the Two Jakes: I’m pretty sure Whitey wouldn’t play Whitey-ball in today’s environment. He built his approach for the low HR context of his day.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. I know he tried to replicate a lot of that with the Angels when HR were exploding. The game had passed him by at that point.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up a few minutes early today but wanted to get one of these on the books with the draft rankings today. Thanks as always for reading – and to those of you who watched our show on Stadium on Monday. I don’t know if you can watch archived episodes but I’ll ask this week when I’m there. It’s live at 2 pm ET on the Stadium app if you have the time. Stay safe!