My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.
Keith Law: A little bit better than I used to be. Klawchat.
Bob Pollard: Do you think the Giants will have Harrison on an innings limit, or does that not even matter since barely any starter pitches even 180 innings anymore?
Keith Law: My guess is it will happen organically – he’s not likely to work very deep into games anyway because he’ll run some higher pitch counts with a lot of strikeouts and walks.
John: Keith, if you were Cleveland, as the top of the draft looks right now. Would you take the one of the top 3-5 players who was willing to sign for the least amount or do you think there is enough of a talent difference to set your sights on one guy.
Keith Law: I would probably shop a deal to 2-3 players, but you still want to figure out who the #1 guy is and maybe you offer him a deal for more than your #2 guy. I don’t think this is the year you go full slot at 1.
Eric: Have you read any Dan Jones history books? I’m reading “Powers and Thrones” about the middle ages, and it is absolutely fantastic. Makes reading about what could be VERY dense subject matter very approachable.
Keith Law: the Da Vinci Code guy? I have not. I read that and woof, I was out.
Eric: Eury Perez: Future Cy Young winner?
Keith Law: Has the potential, but hasn’t had the track record of durability yet.
Marcos: Love your work Keith, you’re the primary reason that I maintain an Athletic subscription. Quick question about James Wood, I know that he has a decent amount to prove with his respect to making contact consistently at the higher levels of the sport, but to my eye, he looks like one of the 10 most gifted players in baseball at any level. Do you view him as having a De La Cruz type of ceiling, and if he puts it all together, do you think he’s an MVP caliber type at the next level?
Keith Law: The power-speed-defense are all elite, but I think he’s going to swing and miss enough to keep him from becoming an MVP-type player. He’s got a huge strike zone and struggled last year with fastballs up in the zone and sliders down in or below it. It’s hard for guys that big to cover that much territory – Judge is the great exception.
Paul: Brady House looks about as toolsy as they get, do you see All star level upside with him?
Keith Law: I disagree – he’s not very toolsy at all. He’s not a runner, he’s not a great defender, and he’s not all twitched up. What he does do, however, is hit the ball extremely hard, and I believe he has more feel to hit than he’s gotten credit for.
Mike: AJ puk apparently stretching out as a starter, think he can be a solid mid rotation SP?
Keith Law: I do not. He hasn’t stayed healthy for a full year since college.
Mike: Think Jared Jones breaks camp w pitt? Also, are you concerned with how hard he throws despite not being a massive guy?
Keith Law: I don’t, and I’m not.
Dr. Bob: Excited to see that a Caldwell made the list. Maybe I can follow his career and find out if we’re related. What’s that? He’s only 5-5 1/2? Never mind. We’re not related to the Arkansas Caldwells anyway.
Keith Law: Pretty funny that he’s listed at 5’8″. He was measured at East Coast Pro last year. Just own it, Slade. Join us on team Fun-Sized.
Nick: If Justin Crawford lifts the ball more this year and shows plus raw power, is he in the top-5 prospect conversation next year?
Keith Law: I’d rather say he’ll be much higher next year if he does that.
Keith Law: Top 5 depends on what happens with a whole host of other players, too.
Wallace: Robert Hassell physically looks stronger during this camp, do you maintain any hope that he can become an above average regular?
Keith Law: I’m more concerned with his contact quality and his swing decisions than how he looks.
Jon: Cleveland’s failed attempts to develop a young RH bat date back to the Matt LaPorta trade. In a draft that could be underwhelming, would it make sense to skew towards Condon given his profile and potential for a quick rise to Cleveland?
Keith Law: No, I’d just go for the best player on the best deal. I happen to think Condon’s the best player, but I wouldn’t say Cleveland should like him more for any specific reason … that’s how you end up passing on a better player.
Jack: Jeff Passan had some incredibly glowing things to say about Cole Ragans and his Spring Training performance, noting an evaluator likened him to a “left handed DeGrom” – is there real #1 starter potential with him?
Keith Law: I would have said #2, but I’m a big fan – I had him on my breakouts article last March. He’s legit.
Eric: My 5 year old started t-ball this season. He loves playing, and I want him to get more interested in baseball as a whole. What would be a good entry point, other than YouTube highlight videos?
Keith Law: Isn’t the best answer just watching more games? Maybe going to some minor league or college games near you, or watching archived games on MLB.tv, something to accommodate what I assume is an early bed time. I think baseball is a sport you learn to like through experience – one great play or moment probably doesn’t convert a kid.
Jeff: How much of a make or break year do you think this is for Henry Davis with the chance to be the everyday catcher? The RF experiment last year was not great and some scouts wondered if he could stick behind the plate. If he struggles is his bat good enough to be an everyday DH?
Keith Law: I think he can catch, but I also think he has to show it this year. He’s going to get a long look. Right field wasn’t good, unsurprising since he had maybe 20 games of experience there total, but his value in the draft was that he was a catcher who could hit (and really, really throw).
Andy: This looks to be one of the worst drafts in recent history for true superstar players. Is the depth beyond the top 30 (or 100) good or is this just a year where you draft for a decent floor and look for ceiling elsewhere?
Keith Law: Nah, it’s just not a great draft. The HS position player crop is way down from last year and below the norm, so I expect a lot of good-not-great college players will get pushed into the first.
Turner: Thank you for the chat! I’m no longer on twitter or X and that’s how I used to know about your chats. I just checked your blog on a whim for today. What is the best way to find out about your chats in the future? Understanding that you don’t schedule them far in advance.
Keith Law: I post them on Threads, BlueSky, Spoutible, and Facebook. I’ll see about a more regular schedule once I have a better sense of my travel for the spring.
Van: For the 2024 draft, is a top tier starting to come together? Who’s pulling ahead so far?
Keith Law: I just posted a ranking this morning.
Andy: How many times have you added a K to Mike Sirota’s name?
Keith Law: It’s when I say it. I want to call him Sirotka or just si-RAHT-uh.
Tyler: Hi Keith, 2 unrelated questions for you: 1) Would you say this is a good year to the number 2 pick? Asking as a Reds fan. And, 2) Do you believe that developing plate discipline is something that can be done? Just curious because I’ve seen conflicting opinions on this but limited data.
Keith Law: It’s not a good year to pick high. I think some players can develop plate discipline, like we’ve seen with Austin Riley or Adolis Garcia, but for the majority of players it’s a lot of wishful thinking.
Keith Law: You always have to try if you’re in player development. It’s just much easier said than done. Oh, stop swinging at sliders out of the zone? Well, sure, everyone is supposed to know that, but few can execute.
JG: All else being equal, if it comes down to extending either Bregman or Tucker, the easy answer is Tucker, isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yes, because of age.
Cooperberg: Can spring training breakouts – like what James Wood has done so far – mean anything or is it all wait and see until the real games start?
Keith Law: Absolutely nothing. Pitchers are working on stuff. Managers aren’t trying to win. You might face a big leaguer in the first at bat and an A-ball guy in the third at bat.
Eric: Why is the name Jackson such a precursor to being a top prospect nowadays?
Keith Law: Because it was a very popular boy’s name in the mid-2000s.
Thomas: Who do you have more confidence in moving forward – Matt Manning or Casey Mize?
Keith Law: Mize.
Jerry: Hey huge fan been following since ESPN. Now subscribe with the athletic because of you. But getting to prospects. First question is Vanderbilt baseball any good this year? Don’t see anyone on your top 30 which is weird for them or they just underclass guys and will be on board next year?
Keith Law: They might be a good college team, but they do not have much in the way of 2024 draft prospects. Vastine might be a third rounder, Holton the same if he’s healthy, although he’s off to a rough start.
RAWagman: Hey Keith. Thank for the chats, as always. Which teams’ offseason maneuvering was most befuddling to you? I’m a Blue Jays fan, and theirs was equal parts disappointing and head-scratching, but which teams, if any, were even more so?
Keith Law: I didn’t get the Reds adding Jeimer Candelario rather than starting pitching depth. I’m also not sure what the Angels’ direction is – it feels like they’re no better off than they were last year.
Andy: At what age do you (as a scout) start hearing about high schoolers? Obviously, if it’s a Bryce Harper type, you hear about it earlier, but do you hear much about the top sophomores (2026 draft available) now? College players we can see as first years and follow them and see their adjustments, does the same thing happen with high schoolers in the scouting world?
Keith Law: I usually don’t hear much about HS players until they’re juniors.
Heather: The Red Sox spent decades as a big market team. Now that they’ve decided to be Tampa North instead, ownership is trying to sell the fans on, “Just wait until Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are on the team in 2026 … then we’ll spend!” Are they really that good? We’re just going to ignore for the moment that none of them is a pitcher.
Keith Law: I think those three are all very good to elite prospects. I think your notes about their lack of pitching in the system and ownership’s sudden decision to treat the team like a cash cow are both well-considered.
Colton: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in Texas to be lacking. You say that gender ideology is harmless, despite the fact that the elimination of female-only spaces creates a danger to females in prison, for instance. Children are being sterilized (pause for a moment and think of the implications of the phrase “puberty blocker”). The very concept of a “gender identity” is an extreme belief in and of itself.
Keith Law: So I deleted the last half of this message because it descended into further anti-trans bullshit. You don’t even understand the difference between sterilization, a permanent procedure with a long history in this country of use against people suspected of mental illness and racial minorities, and puberty blockers, safe and temporary medical treatment that comes under the care of a doctor. You also are at least 70 years behind on gender identity, and that’s just in the west, as gender identity has history going back thousands of years in non-white European cultures. You’re barely even masking your hatred of trans people behind inaccurate rhetoric.
CVD: With the changes to service time- should James Wood make the opening day roster to increase chances of ROY liklihood? Or is he not ready so keep him down for another year of control?
Keith Law: oh HELL no. He was in double A for less than half of 2023 and struggled with contact there.
Gordon: Hi Keith! If you could cover any other sport what would it be and why?
Keith Law: No.
Jakey: Why so few HS prospects? Is it the Covid effect or something else?
Keith Law: Just a down year. It’s just random.
Jackie: Who’s winning the ROY awards?
Keith Law: I’ll do predictions the last week of ST. Depends a lot on who makes OD rosters.
SJ: It looks like Quinn Priester’s velocity is up a few MPH this spring. What’s your outlook on him at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t buy those spikes until the pitchers are working a little deeper into games. Higher velo in 1-2 innings may translate into higher velo in 5-7, but it might be a guy airing it out to win a roster spot.
Aaron G: Jackson Holliday – June/July callup? Or full season at AAA?
Keith Law: If they have a spot, he’ll be up in June or July. I could also see them having no room for him.
Keith Law: Well, I guess that’s not quite right – he’s going to be better than almost anyone he replaces except Gunnar. But they may not dislodge an incumbent unless Holliday is laying waste to AAA pitching.
Tracy: Here in Chicago we have an owner who’s got his hand out (again!) looking for taxpayer dollars to fund a new stadium, even though he already has one. Jerry Reinsdorf has single-handedly ruined the White Sox franchise, refusing to spend enough money to elevate the organization so it can be consistently competitive in the 21st century. Fans here are mostly outraged by his brazenness. This is also happening elsewhere. Owners are once again asking for money that solely benefits them. Do you think there is a growing national outrage from fans and taxpayers, saying they will no longer support publicly-financed stadiums?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because these proposals keep passing and legislators who support them keep their jobs. It’s not even party-specific. The entire Tennessee legislature should be dissolved for the money they keep handing sports teams (and MLB will come with its hand out soon enough).
Steve: I see your first question was from Bob Pollard. He’ll probably have 20 more ready by the time this chat is done.
Keith Law: I understood that reference.
Jakey: James Outman has become a good player on a top team. I know “don’t scout the stat line” but in HS he barely hit .300 and in college he was at .249. How does a scout see a player like that and know they have a chance to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Big bet on athleticism + that focusing just on baseball would help him. Great move for a later pick.
Kyle: Hi Keith – Thanks for the update this AM.. Twins are interesting with picks at 21 and 33. With the lack of prep talent, could you see them buying 2 college arms with those picks (Santucci, Yesavage, Brecht, etc) and then spreading $ on prep later?
Keith Law: Why not?
Eric: Re: Dan Jones – no, not da vinci. That’s Dan Brown. Dan Jones is a legit historian
Keith Law: You’re right, brain cramp here. Obviously I have never heard of Dan Jones, although that may be my failure.
Jakey: How long do you think the Morel at 3b experiment lasts?
Keith Law: He’s really not good there. I imagine less than half a season.
Mike: I just dont see how brody brect can be so high when he walks so many.
Keith Law: It’s primarily a bet that he’s so athletic and so inexperienced (having played football as well) that he’ll continue to improve his control and command with more reps and pro coaching. His delivery is fine – it’s certainly not why he walked so many guys last year – but he throws so hard and his arm is so fast that he hasn’t really learned to manage it. If he walks nearly 20% of batters again this year, he’ll drop to the end of the first round or out of it. He has walked fewer guys the last two outings, and I think being a full-time baseball player is going to yield some short-term improvement.
Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Obviously pitching metrics/labs are much more advanced than hitting metrics at this stage (at least in terms of allowing players to “improve”). Is this simply due to how different pitching/hitting are OR is there some potential advancement coming that will allow hitters to catch up in this space?
Keith Law: I think many hitting labs/coaches focus too much on single metrics of power or contact quality, like EV or launch angle, when there’s often a more fundamental problem at play like pitch or ball/strike recognition. There are certainly teams and coaches that work on the latter, but there seems to be more approaches at work here than there are for pitchers.
Kevin: Thoughts on the Bello extension? Upside of a potential #2?
Keith Law: Love him and yes.
Ryan: You’re a fan of power metal, right? Have you ever heard of Unleash the Archers? Big fan. The singer’s voice is incredible.
Keith Law: I would say yes … old-school thrash will never get old for me. I was listening to some Power Trip the other day and I love the music, although the late singer’s voice was too abrasive for me and too forward in the mix. (I can deal with some pretty abrasive vocals when they’re mixed lower, behind the guitars.)
AK: Hey Keith, just picked up Wingspan and have no idea wtf is going on. Any good advice/tutorials out there to get started?
Ollie: Ryne Nelson has looked really good so far this spring. I’m guessing he’ll win the fifth starter job. Any thoughts on his performance or improved slider?
Keith Law: Spring performance doesn’t mean anything and if his slider is different this year I haven’t seen/heard it. I’ve been a big Nelson fan, though.
Zirinsky: Keith: When is it useful to start looking at results from veteran pitchers in ST? And obviously it’s possible that the answer is “never.”
Keith Law: I just don’t, unless, say, a guy suddenly is walking batters at twice the rate, or has lost his fastball. Something really drastic.
PhillyJake: I’m finally reading Smart Baseball. Just finished the OPS chapter last night. I was blown away by the difference of a .400 OBP and .400SLG guy vs. a .300 OPB and .500SLG guy. Thanks for the enlightenment!
Keith Law: Glad you enjoyed it!
Michael: Thanks for doing these chats, Keith! I’ll be in Seattle for the first time in a few weeks. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Yes, I was there in July for the Futures Game. https://meadowparty.com/blog/2023/07/15/seattle-eats/
Chris: Have you seen “Anatomy of a Fall” yet? Curious what you think.
Keith Law: Not yet. I think we’re going to end up seeing just 7/10 BP nominees before the Oscars, although eventually we’ll get them all.
JR: At what point are Snell and Montgomery at risk for missing start of the season if they haven’t signed? Or are we there already? Seems like an offensive player could be ready in a few days, but a pitcher would need more reps against live batting to get ready.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d say we’re at that point now.
Jacob: Of the two Cal guys, Rodney Green Jr. and Caleb Lomavita, who would you draft first and who do you think gets drafted first?
Keith Law: Only one is on the top 30 today…
Gregory: Telling little boys that they might actually be girls trapped in a boy’s body is, definitionally, grooming.
Keith Law: This is such a fundamental misunderstanding that it makes me despair of the state of our education system. Nobody is “telling” anyone they’re trans, or queer, or anything else. That’s not how any of this works!
James: It seems like Chourio is going to make the opening day roster. What would be your predicted slash line for him over 500-600 PA?
Keith Law: .270/.310/.425. Kind of seeing a slow build, maybe a rough start in April/May, some adjustment period, and a strong finish.
Mike: None prospect question….but the Twins sure are betting a lot on a healthy Paddock and Descalfini after losing Gray. Is this really going to work (in the post season if they get there)?
Keith Law: Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he’s only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.
Eric: the founding fathers would be amazed that two near-octogenarians would be running for president one day. but hey, let’s go crazy
Keith Law: I mean, they would not recognize much of anything in our society, from guns to racial justice to who’s allowed to vote and own land and so on. Also, imagine handing one of them a smartphone.
Jakey: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in TX to be spot on
Keith Law: Thank you. Leave trans kids alone.
JR: Strong agree with your Killers of the Flower Moon movie review. Loved the book, almost passed on the movie when I saw it was 3.5 hours. Gave it a try and stopped after a slow 30 minutes.
I miss the days when all major movies were released in theaters and had to be a tight 90-120 minutes, with only the occasional special film getting 2.5+ hours. Netflix, Apple, etc., appear to not reign in directors as much and give them blank checks and limited oversight. So the movies ramble on forever.
Keith Law: I’m fine with 3-hour movies if they earn it. Scorsese needed to trim some of the first two hours, in particular. The scene where Mollie’s mother dies stands out as one that, while beautiful on its own, does not progress the story or the development of any core character.
Eric: James Wood >>>>>>>> James Woods
Keith Law: Low bar, but yes.
Luis: Hi Keith, not a question but rather just to thank you for the content and send my condolences for the loss of your cat to you and your family
Keith Law: Thank you. We actually just adopted two rescued kittens yesterday – neither my wife nor I has been cat-less in over a decade, and with so many kittens needing homes we decided not to wait. Pictures coming soon!
Caleb: Think we can expect a ‘leap’ from Jordan Walker in 2024, or am I thinking a year too early?
Keith Law: He might be on the breakouts list this year.
David: You planning any trips to Winston-Salem this year to check out Wake Forest players before the draft?
Keith Law: At least once, I think.
Robert: Have you ever had to put a pet down? We just put our 15 year old dog down, and my family is asking for another dog, but I don’t see if/when I’ll ever be ready for another. He was such a good boy.
Keith Law: I just did that last month, and wrote about it in the newsletter. I’ve had to put four cats down myself – as in, I was the one at the vet making the call. It never, ever gets easier.
Ken from Entertainment 720: Hey Keith. My wife is a die hard O’s fan but isnt a fan of Westburg. I happen to be a fan of his. If i say he from ages 26-32 can be a .275 hitter with a 785-815 OPS with 40 doubles and 15-20 home runs. How wrong am I? He feels like Robby Thompson 2.0 (old Giant’s second baseman).
Keith Law: Yeah I’m with you. I see a regular for someone.
Andy: We all know the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the last time a Central team made the World Series, it was Cubs-Cleveland. It isn’t like those teams are making huge splashed this winter either. People always complain about “East Coast bias”, but at the early evening timeslot, there just isn’t anything appealing about most of the Central teams.
Keith Law: The two Centrals are by far the lowest-populated divisions, right? Chicago’s the only large city in either Central, and one of the Chicago teams acts like they play in Peoria.
Eric: Nick Senzel had a decent rookie yr, and of course a 1st round pedigree, but hasnt really hit since then. Any chance he can be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Never give up on a guy with that background but he’s had a lot of injury issues & more.
Robert: All the people who love to say things like Babe Ruth is the best ever, I’d love to see Babe Ruth’s reaction if Shohei time traveled to play in the majors with him
Keith Law: He’d probably respond with a racial slur.
Dan: Who will you have your eyes on on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: I have absolutely no idea who’s playing on the Cape this summer.
Robert: that anti-trans guy sounds like such a … snowflake
Keith Law: They’re incredibly soft.
Dee: Another hammy for Madrigal. He’s just never going to play 140 games right?
Keith Law: I think he could play 140 games at some point but won’t hit enough for it to matter. Where are all the White Sox fans mad I left him off my top 100?
Todd Boss: Opening Quote: “Live Wire,” by Motley Crue?
Keith Law: Still their best song.
Dave: Keith, with Bellinger and Busch getting the lion share of work at CF and 1b respectively, should a young Armstrong get more seasoning and force the issue down the road if he rakes in AAA, or is his defense alone accretive to afford a shuffling of those three between CF/1B/DH (include Morel and 3B in that rotation ?)
Keith Law: I’d start PCA in AAA with the mandate to maximize contact and get out of this pull orientation. There will be opportunities for him at some point this year, even if it’s just like you suggest, with Busch moving to DH and Belli at 1b.
Ernesto: Do you feel like we are witnessing the beginning of the end of American democracy? It sure feels like it with extremists getting elected and the supreme courts playing calvinball with their decisions. The fact an insurrectionist is even allowed to run for office says a lot. Unless there is a total wipeout this election cycle I dont like our chances.
Keith Law: I do. I am especially dismayed at how much of the media, including mainstream, national media outlets, seem unaware that they are bothsidesing a contest that is very much uneven in its import and consequences.
Jason: Brooks Lee has looked great in spring training. any chance he makes the opening day roster? move Julien to 1st and slide Lee to 2nd?
Keith Law: Also would be very foolish.
Dr. Bob: RE: Owners asking for handouts. The only time I remember the fans helping sinking potential deals for a team were the mid-1990s Rams. Georgia had run that team so far into the ground that when the move to STL was announced, most fan reaction was, “Can we help you pack?” Even thought they’re bad deals for the taxpayers, fans always support them.
Keith Law: Fans are vocal. Opponents aren’t. If you live in a state or county about to subsidize some billionaire’s playground, you need to make your voice heard.
Jason: Best placement of the flag in Stratego? “Traditionally” people surround with bombs near the back row. Any thought to a random spot?
Keith Law: I actually haven’t played it in ~35 years.
Guest: Is JD Davis a reasonable upgrade for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Todd Boss: A blogger in the Washington Nationals blogosphere made a pretty cogent argument that the Nationals should be treated as a small market team, just as the Baltimore Orioles are, based on MASN RSN revenue. They received less RSN money than Seattle, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, but those teams all get comp draft picks for being “small markets.” This also cost them the #1 pick this year, when they had to forfeit their lottery win. Is this fair?
Keith Law: It’s a reasonable argument but I don’t know what their other revenues look like.
Dee: Sharing The Gender Dysphoria Bible, seems we have some folks who need to read it.
https://genderdysphoria.fyi/en
Keith Law: Bookmarking, thank you.
Tom: That Anthony Rendon doesn’t consider his job to be the most important thing in his life doesn’t concern me. I presume most people feel this way about their jobs and heck, I imagine more than a few pro athletes aren’t actually playing their favorite sport. What concerns me is Rendon isn’t particularly good at his job and hasn’t been for a while, and it’s yet another example of why the Angels are in this endless abyss they show few signs of climbing out any time soon.
Keith Law: Right. You don’t have to love your job to be good at it! But you do have to put in the work.
Justin: What continues to boggle the mind is how people can look at an incredibly vulnerable population (1 in 4 attempt suicide) and decide, “Yes, I want to make life harder for them.” No real question, it’s just infuriating.
Keith Law: It is infuriating, and makes me particularly disdainful of the people and the niche groups promulgating this mentality.
Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to play The Fox Experiment from Elizabeth Hargrave yet? My family didn’t enjoy it quite as much as Wingspan, but found quite a bit of humor in being able to name the foxes.
Keith Law: It’s on the shelf but still unplayed.
Matt: How does Altuve have so much power? I get why Judge has power. He’s huge. But Altuve is a Smurf.
Keith Law: Height don’t measure power, either. Altuve is shorter than I am, but he’s about twice as wide.
Queer: Trans adults would like to be left alone too
Keith Law: Yes to this too. The assault on trans rights is both inhumane and a threat to everyone’s rights.
Salty: Does Jared Jones give off any Sixto vibes? Body seems similar, stuff maybe a little different, and I’ve never seen him pitch. Is he a viable SP or more back-end/relief with two strong pitches currently.
Keith Law: Stronger/better athlete. I will say Sixto blowing out as badly as he did was a surprise, because I have seen very few guys throw 100 that easily.
Matt: If you were Jed Hoyer how would you be approaching this season?
Keith Law: Gleefully?
Matt: Have you ever written or talked publicly about your divorce? And or the role mental health played? As somone with a spouse with mental health challenges i’d love to learn from others experience.
Keith Law: No, because I don’t feel like it’s really my story to tell – there’s another person involved, and her side would differ from mine, while even telling my side would likely compromise her privacy.
Jason: Found it interesting that Angel Martinez was left of your Guardians top 20 .. Reports of a swing adjustment and now hes racking in ST.. Any thoughts ??
Keith Law: He was #11.
Rado: Have you had a chance to experience The Sphere? I’ve never been the biggest U2 fan but i can tell you….its worth it.
Keith Law: Having seen it on TV, I don’t think I’d like it. At best it’s sensory overload. At worst it might give me a migraine.
Keith Law: (cue Gang of Four)
JT: Last year, Salas was a huge story during ST on The Athletic. Is there anyone showcasing themselves similarly this year?
Keith Law: Minor leaguers haven’t started games yet.
Frank: Did Scott Boras overplay his hand this offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. We’ll see what Montgomery ends up with, but Boras’s history with taking free agents deep into the offseason (and beyond) has usually vindicated him. And Bellinger’s free agent case was as odd as it gets – guy gets non-tendered one winter, is an MVP candidate a year later. Who did that last – Jose Bautista?
Jason: Did you see the “We are the World” documentary, and if so what did you think?
Keith Law: It was excellent. So much I didn’t know, even though I was alive and old enough to be aware of much of it, and also such a blast to see who was considered enough of a star to be included. Plus the odd interplay of, say, Bob Dylan and Cyndi Lauper hanging out.
Brett: Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.
Dave: Have you ever considered selling t-shirts that say, “I Hate Your Favorite Team” – if not for personal profit (nothing wrong with that, btw) then for your favorite charity?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea. I’ll get on this.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for reading and for the support. It’s on all of us to stand up for the rights of our least powerful or most vulnerable neighbors. Stay safe.
People like Greg and Colton are a great examples of the ignorance in which this country is drowning. Fucking scary.
It’s the othering of america. Once once a group succesfully assimilates or is seen as okay, you have to move on to the next one. Trans people (who literally want to left the fuck alone) are the current target. I would also point out that not just trans people are targeted in these laws. Cis people who are either seen as very masculine for females or men that are seen as feminine can be the targets as well. I’m not even gonna get into the genital checking laws and how much those are just asking for sexual assaults.
Who told Gregory that he was straight? Or did he slowly realize that girls weren’t “icky” and instead developed a bit of crush on one when he was about 10?
Obviously some straight adults groomed Gregory into believing he was straight.
Klaw busting out old school Motley Crue. Back when Vince Neil vould still sing!
Kittens!!!
Keith, the Da Vinci Code author is Dan Brown, not Dan Jones.
We addressed that later in the chat. It’s better to read to the end before commenting, as readers & I often revisit topics before I close the chat.
The “We Are the World” documentary was brilliant. It contains my favorite line in any movie this year, “I don’t want to hold the chimp.” I also gained respect for Lionel Richie. He really had to herd cats for that thing. I never liked the song much, but making it was art.
I love Ragans, but man do I worry about his health. Maybe it’s just confirmation bias, but it sure seems like huge gains in velocity and stuff are a harbinger of a UCL tear or worse.
I haven’t read Dan Jones’ nonfiction, but I did try reading his first novel. It was lacking to say the least. He should probably stick to nonfiction.
A note to JR: Oscar eligibility requires that films be released in theaters for at least seven days in one of six major U.S. cities. (I’m simplifying, but that’s the gist of it.) Sometimes, this means a film will have a limited qualifying run before December 31 (the eligibility period is the calendar year) and then go wider in the new year. In the case of “Killers of the Flower Moon,” it was in nearly 3,800 theaters nationally at its widest release, and spent nearly a full month in at least 3,300 theaters.
As a general observation, if you want “serious” movies to spend more time in theaters, then you should support that concept by seeing those movies in theaters. I hear and read people complaining often that there are no serious movies for adults (not to be confused with adult movies 🙂 ) anymore, that it’s all just superhero movies and/or movies aimed at teenagers, but there are several dozen movies for adults every year that play fairly widely, and a lot of the people who complain seem unaware of this.
On a different subject, I don’t know how Babe Ruth would do today if he were magically transported from the first half of the 20th century to 2024. I suspect he wouldn’t do that well. But I also imagine that, if Babe Ruth had been born in 1995 and had access to all of the accumulated knowledge, training, nutrition, etc., that contemporary players have today, he’d probably be pretty good. There must have been some fundamental qualities and abilities that Ruth had that made him so dominant in his day relative to his competition. (Yes, the A.L. wasn’t integrated, but every other A.L. player had that advantage and none of them did what Ruth did. And Ruth competed against Negro Leaguers regularly in exhibitions and he excelled in those games, too.)
If the point of these debates is that today’s athletes are always going to be better than those from 100 years ago because humans are bigger and stronger than they were in the past, then the debate is a waste of time because that point is self-evident. Babe Ruth is significant because of how much better he was than his contemporaries; the more interesting debate is whether anyone else has dominated his era like Ruth did. People often hyperbolically refer to events in baseball as “history” or “historic,” when they really mean “baseball history.” In terms of American history writ large, there are only two baseball figures who actually warrant mentioning: Ruth and Jackie Robinson. Baseball fans shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Ruth and his impact.
Keith, when you imputed a racist attitude toward Asians to Ruth in your reply to the Ohtani/Ruth question, was that informed by some knowledge that you have of Ruth’s beliefs or actions that indicate that he was racist towards Asians or any other non-white group? If not, don’t you think you’re being unfair? Jane Leavy’s biography of Ruth went into great detail about Ruth’s willingness to play against and befriend Black players. I don’t recall anything in its 600-or-so pages to support the idea that Ruth was racist. I’m sure you’re also aware that Ruth was himself subjected to racist slurs by people who believed he was of mixed race.
Very thoughtful comment on Ruth. I’m of the mind that Ruth born in 1995 would be an excellent player, but wouldn’t have dominated like he did in his era. I think baseball was a rather immature sport at the time, and it’s easier to dominate an immature sport (see also Wilt Chamberlain’s gaudy stats). Ruth during his prime used 40+ ounce bats, and I just don’t think that works unless pitchers on average are throwing quite a bit slower and/or with fewer offspeed weapons. The only modern player that comes close to Ruth in terms of dominating is Bonds in his late 30’s. Ruth did apparently inject himself once with sheep testicle extract, so ¯\_(?)_/¯.
Fake Keith Law 2013 draft profile
George “Babe” Ruth Height 6-2 Weight 215 lbs
OF/LHP Baltimore, MD (HS)
Ruth, who was not named after Sloth’s favorite candy bar, has prodigious power, but can be susceptible to off speed stuff with his long swing and heavy bat. While he isn’t slow, his size could cause issues as he fills out. He has a pretty good idea of the strike zone, but he’ll need better bat control. On the mound, his fastball did blow away Charm City high school competition, but he’ll probably need to focus on one of hitting or pitching to really become the best he can be.
The “Ruth today” analysis is a lot like the “Wilt today” analysis in basketball. Better nutrition, strength training, equipment/shoes. supplements, etc. – this is why I think it’s best to compare players to the guys they competed against versus those playing today. Otherwise it’s way too speculative.
As an aside, I’m unaware of Ruth being racist towards Asians (or any other non-white group) so I’m curious as to why Keith included that. Maybe he is assuming, without evidence, that Ruth was racist simply because he was a white guy who lived about 100 years ago. Seems pretty unfair.
Brian in socal may have written one of the best reader comments I’ve ever come across.
Comparing Babe Ruth to Ohtani is like comparing Paavo Nurmi or Emil Zatopek to the distance runners of today.
Nurmi won multiple Olympic gold medals with times that wouldn’t win an elite high school meet today — but no track fan is foolish enough to compare Nurmi to today’s Olympic athletes. Sometimes it seems like only baseball fans feel compelled to earnestly make such nonsensical cross-generational comparisons.
One reason is that track doesn’t really allow for much discussion because success in the sport is based entirely on measurable times and distances that necessarily get better as generations progress. In baseball, there are records set a hundred years ago that still stand today (e.g., highest career batting average or most doubles in a season). Again, the point that today’s athletes are bigger and stronger than those of prior generations is self-evident. The interesting question isn’t whether Paavo Nurmi would beat Mo Farah in a 5,000-meter race. (For one thing, Nurmi would be 126 years old today and Farah is a youthful 40.) It’s whether Nurmi’s achievements were greater in the context of his time than Farah’s, or how Nurmi would do if he were born into the current generation with all of the advances that today’s athletes take for granted.
Keith, saw your piece on the Athletic on the prospects. Tegan Kuhns is enrolled at Gettysburg AHS not Chambersburg.
Keith, love to hear your thoughts about the Kansas City stadium situation… the Royals and Chiefs joining forces to get both stadiums – a new one for Royals and a refurb/remodel for the Chiefs. This coming after studies “show” the concrete at The K is bad while that at Arrowhead is fine (despite them being built together.
And, the Royals were supposed to be in one of two locations, before a third jumped in the mix (and was selected) a week prior to the announcement. And of course, that one is downtown, but will cause the eviction/relocation/eminent domain-ing of a ton of local businesses.
Finally, you’ve got former Royal Frank White in the mix, and the political ads championing Yes / No votes are fascinating.