Here we go, my annual Oscars preview with links to every movie I’ve reviewed on this site. Throw your predictions, disagreements, snubs, and more in the comments.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
What will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
What should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
What was snubbed: Decision to Leave, Aftersun, The Eternal Daughter
I know there’s a wide chasm between folks who think EEAAO should win, like I do, and those who think it will be at best a below-median Best Picture winner, but I’m comfortable with my take. Not only do I think the film works extremely well, but it’s also tried to do the most – it’s an extremely ambitious movie on multiple levels, and succeeds at all of them. There should be a level of difficulty adjustment when considering movies for this honor. My second choice would be The Banshees of Inisherin, while Elvis would be the biggest travesty, although I haven’t seen Avatar.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Who will win: Fraser
Who should win: (pass)
Who was snubbed: Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave; Song Kang-ho, Broker
I haven’t seen The Whale or Living, since even people who praise Fraser’s performance don’t say kind things about the movie, and I’m not paying $20 to stream a bad film at home, even to hate-watch it. Mescal and Farrell were both incredible in their roles and weren’t doing an extended impersonation, like Butler did, but it seems like neither has any chance to win.
Best Actress
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Yeoh
Who should win: Blanchett
Who I really want to win: Yeoh
Who was snubbed: Tilda Swinton, The Eternal Daughter
Best Actress is the strongest category this year, although the nominations don’t adequately reflect how good a year it was for actresses in leading roles. De Armas was not good in a terrible role within an even worse movie, and Williams, while a very skilled actress, gave an affected performance that barely qualified as leading. I could name a half-dozen better performances than de Armas’s, and did in my Blonde review. Of the contenders, Riseborough had no shot even without the controversy, and I’d give Blanchett a slight edge over Yeoh, but Yeoh is the sentimental favorite for many reasons and Blanchett already has one of these things.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Quan
Who should win: Quan
Who was snubbed: Gabriel Labelle, The Fabelmans
I think this is the lock of the night, and I’m good with it, although Gleeson did give something close to a second lead performance in Banshees. Quan is another sentimental favorite, since EEAAO marks his return to acting after a twenty-year absence, but he’s absolutely essential to that movie and his character has the most range of any of the four main ones. Hirsch has the weakest case, since he’s on screen for less than ten minutes, and this seems like a way to honor an older actor at the end of his life rather than an argument that this was one of the five best performances by an actor in a supporting role in 2022. He’s very good in that small role, though.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Bassett
Who should win: (pass)
Who was snubbed: Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
I’ve only seen Banshees and EEAAO, although I’ll get to Black Panther soon – I loved the first one, like most people, but that has made me disinclined to see the sequel, especially given its running time. (Seriously, enough with the three-hour movies. Hollywood needs a pitch clock.) I also haven’t seen The Whale, so I can’t say specifically that de Leon belonged over her, but de Leon was the only truly redeeming quality her film had. Chauwas great in the underrated The Menu, though.
Best Directing
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Who will win: Spielberg
Who should win: No opinion
Who was snubbed: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
This is my pick for the category where something wacky might happen. I could see any of these candidates winning, and while the betting lines have the Daniels as huge favorites, I’m not sure … is it not a serious enough movie? Is this the one place the voters honor Spielberg for making a movie about how great movies are? (They could do that with original screenplay, too.) Does that create a chance for one of the other three to sneak in? I don’t have a strong opinion on this award this year, despite seeing all five of the nominees; I would just say I don’t think Östlunddeserves it, because the movie itself isn’t very good, and the direction in the middle section is too weak.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Who will win: The Daniels
Who should win: McDonagh
Who was snubbed: Jeong Seo-kyeong & Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave; Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
I’ll point out that these are the same five nominees as the five for Directing, and none are women, again.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
A whole bunch of people, Top Gun: Maverick
Who will win: Ishiguro
Who should win: Polley*
I haven’t seen Living, so I qualify my opinion that Polley should win here with that caveat. Ishiguro is an actual Nobel Prize winner. I feel like that’s going to sway a lot of voters, even some who haven’t seen the movie. This would make him just the third person ever to win an Oscar and a Nobel Prize, along with Bob Dylan and George Bernard Shaw, both of whom won the same Nobel as Ishiguro (Literature). Maybe I’m way off base, but I try not to overestimate the Oscar electorate.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss n Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
What will win: GDT’s Pinocchio
What should win: The Sea Beast
What was snubbed: My Father’s Dragon
I haven’t seen the latest Puss n Boots cash grab, and I doubt I will. Pinocchio looked amazing but the songs weren’t good and the story itself felt wooden (yes, pun intended). I watched The Sea Beast last night on a flight home and was pleasantly surprised by many aspects of the story, while the animation was excellent. My Father’s Dragon is the latest film from Cartoon Saloon (Wolfwalkers) and I can’t recommend it enough if you enjoy animation. I have Inu-Oh downloaded on my iPad right now to watch on a future flight, after it earned a Golden Globe nomination.
Other quick thoughts:
- I’ve only seen three of the five Best Documentary Feature nominees, with Navalny my favorite, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed fascinating but also a little frustrating in its lack of focus, and Fire of Love a disappointment.
- I’ve seen just two of the five Best International Feature Film nominees, de-prioritizing those once it became clear All Quiet on the Western Front was a complete lock, while my #3 film of the year, Decision to Leave, got the shaft. I also think All Quiet will win Best Cinematography and a bunch of other awards that are very important but that I don’t think I know enough to offer an opinion.
IMHO, #tolesliemovie is a small film with a giant heart and Andrea Riseborough gives the performance of the year. Please go find this gem, directed by Michael Morris!
For readers who don’t get the joke, that’s the text copied & pasted by a number of actors/celebrities to campaign for Riseborough. The Academy cleared the nomination and determined the campaign didn’t violate any of its rules. I’ve said in a few places she’s deserving and she was a whole lot better than de Armas or Williams.
Picture:
Will win: EEAAO
Should win: EEAAO
Snubbed: Aftersun, The Woman King
Director
WW: The Daniels
SW: The Daniels
S: Gina Prince-Blythewood (The Woman King), Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Actor:
WW: Austin Butler
SW: Colin Farrell
S: Jack Lowden (Benediction)
Actress:
WW: Michelle Yeoh
SW: Yeoh
S: Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Supporting Actor:
WW: Ke Huy Quan
SW: Ke Huy Quan
S: Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Supporting Actress:
WW: Kerry Condon
SW: Condon
S: Judith Ivey, Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy (Women Talking)
Original Screenplay:
WW: EEAAO
SW: TÁR
S: Aftersun
Adapted Screenplay:
WW: Women Talking
SW: Women Talking
S: Fire Island
Animated Feature:
WW: Pinocchio
SW: Marcel
S: none
International Film:
WW: AQotWF
SW: abstain (haven’t seen them all)
S: RRR (I know it wasn’t submitted but it’s still a snub)
Documentary Feature:
WW: Navalny
SW: All That Breathes
S: none
Cinematography
WW: AQotWF
SW: AQotWF
S: Avatar
Film Editing:
WW: EEAAO
SW: EEAAO
S: Babylon
Production Design:
WW: Babylon
SW: Babylon
S: Pinocchio
Costume Design:
WW: Elvis
SW: Black Panther
S: Glass Onion
Original Score:
WW: Babylon
SW: Babylon
S: Women Talking
Original Song:
SW: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
WW: “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun)
S: “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise)
Makeup and Hairstyling:
WW: Elvis
SW: The Batman
S: X
Sound:
WW: Top Gun
SW: Avatar
S: Babylon
Visual Effects:
WW: Avatar
SW: Avatar
S: Nope
Live Action Short:
WW: Le Pupille
SW: The Red Suitcase
S: none
Animated Short::
WW: The Boy, the Mole, etc
SW: An Ostrich Told Me, etc. (Although I’d be amused to hear “The Oscar goes to My Year of Dicks”)
S: none
Documentary Short:
WW: The Elephant Whisperers
SW: Haulout
S: none
I don’t know about anyone else, but I just feel like I’m watching tonight out of habit. Seriously, the last three years have just…done something to me and my enjoyment of movies. I feel like all I do these days is consume, rather than watch and enjoy. The only one of the major nominees I feel strongly about is The Fabelmans, and that’s because of the Spielberg of it all. If someone else had made that movie, I’d probably be less enthusiastic about it. I don’t want to blame everything on the effing pandemic, but to me this is the 3rd straight year of weak overall movies and weak overall nominees. There’s no good reason for Top Gun and Avatar to be nominated except in a feeble attempt to get people to watch, and Elvis was the shittiest shit show I’ve seen in some time. All Quiet and Triangle of Sadness missed their marks. Women Talking didn’t stick the landing. EEAAO just didn’t connect with me, probably because Marvel has worn me out on the multiverse concept, and because I despise that concept in the first place. Though I will be happy for Short Round when he wins, because he was great (as were all his fellow nominees).
I don’t know. I guess I’m just too much of a snob these days.
I’m totally biased in favor of GDT’s Pinocchio just because “Ciao, Papa” broke me. If my dad was still alive, maybe it wouldn’t have worked.
Oh and Puss In Boots was surprisingly great. I haven’t even seen any other movies with that character.
Everything Everywhere All At Once was probably my favorite movie of the year. A lot was said about Top Gun Maverick bringing people back to the theatres but the best movie experience I had this year was being able to experience EEAAO alongside a mostly full theatre. I’m happy it got the acclaim it did.
Having said that, I wish it hadn’t maybe run away with everything. I’d have liked to see something from Banshees win something as I felt like it was the other film this year that I really felt like I would have been happy to see win. All of the actors and Martin McDonough’s script were worthy of at least some recognition. Especially hurts to see Colin Farrell lose out to Brendan Fraser. I’m not sure the Whale was so much bad as misguided. It felt like it thought it was making some profound statement about sympathy for obese people but barely missed coming across as mockery.
It’s been many years since I’ve watched the Oscars, but it was great to see EEAAO clean up. I still need to see many of the acclaimed / nominated flicks from 2022 — having kids will skew your consumption towards animated + family fare. But I will state that Puss In Boots 2 was surprisingly great!