Klawchat 10/7/22.

My hypothetical postseason awards ballots column is up now for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the board game Wormholes, a good gateway game to play with your kids.

Keith Law: There’s no point in asking, you’ll get no reply. Klawchat.

Bighen: Ton of chatter on Mets holding deGrom out of game 2 if they win tonight, how would you align their rotation? Also Carrasco or Walker if Mets need to use 4th starter at some point.
Keith Law: Not a big fan of that unless there’s a health-related reason to do so. Don’t outsmart yourselves.

Alex: The Red Sox just dropped $220 million to finish in last place (for the 2nd time in three seasons).  Is Chaim Bloom just not qualified to run a big market team?  It’s one thing to be an assistant in a “Nobody Cares” market like Tampa, but Boston is a completely different animal.  He’s traded away Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, Springs, Vazquez et al, and received nothing of note in return.
Keith Law: Jeez, this is the most knee-jerk take imaginable. Ownership forced the Betts trade, and it’s not like Verdugo is nothing, just a good platoon player. Not sure what you thought they’d get for Springs or Benintendi or even Renfroe (I like Binelas some, although the AA debut was very disappointing; he hits the ball very hard). And you’re underselling Wilyer Abreu a ton. But the bigger issue is that you’re reacting based on a small subset of decisions in a short period of time.

Doug: What’s Cristian Pache’s future in MLB?  4OF? Starter?  He’s young of course, but hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far.
Keith Law: I think he’s a starter, but he clearly hasn’t been ready for MLB pitching and the decision to promote  and keep him up so much of last year looks bad in hindsight. Defense & power are more than enough for him to be an average regular, but the A’s are going to have to just live with the low OBPs for a while now.

Jay: Why is there a rush to introduce a pitch clock at the MLB level? Are we really in a rush to fill air time with more empty talking head type shows rather than a live event? No thank you.
Keith Law: Oh I’m a big fan of the pitch clock after seeing how much it speeds up minor league games. It gets rid of a lot of dead time – which, by the way, might just be filled with empty commentary because so many broadcasters are afraid of silence.

Heather: I’ll give you five dollars if you can promise me, right now, that I’ll never have to hear from or about Tony LaRussa ever again.
Keith Law: I wish I could promise that, but you know next June some reporter with no new ideas will track him down to get Old Man Yells at Cloud content.
Keith Law: TLR had a great career. It is a shame it had to end with this regrettable stint in Chicago. It’s like when an acclaimed actor’s last film is some B movie or voicing a character in the Emoji Movie or something.

JJ: Brayan Bello has never thrown more than 118 innings in a season in his professional career.  What kind of cap, if any, would you put on him in 2023?
Keith Law: I don’t feel remotely qualified to answer that. One, I know nothing about his arm or his health. Two, the claim that there was some magic threshold around +30 innings is unsupported by evidence.

Guest: Can you explain why you consider Bonds’ record to be legitimate? It was clearly obtained through committing crimes and breaking the rules of the game, aka cheating. Lance Armstrong was stripped of all his titles and records. I don’t see how this is any different
Keith Law: “Clearly” is doing a lot of work there. I know of no evidence he “committed crimes” and the reality is that the rules of the game to which you refer were either unenforced or nonexistent (e.g., MLB didn’t ban the use of HGH till 2005). Bonds never tested positive for any PEDs. That is by far the best and most objective standard we can use. He failed as many tests as Maris and Aaron did – and given that HGH and amphetamines were available by 1960, I’m not sure why we would assume anyone from a prior era is automatically clean just because there was no testing.

Tom: Hey Keith – do you think Jake Alu could be an everyday regular next season for the nats?
Keith Law: I don’t, unless he’s a much better defender at third base than I realized. That would make him a regular.

Jourdyn: Spencer Strider or Alek Manoah long term?
Keith Law: I love both but I’ll bet on Manoah because of the broader pitch mix.

Efrim: How impressed are you with Alex’s work with Atlanta since taking over? Obviously he was always thought of as a good exec, but the work he did in revamping the front office and adding more analytics based employees. Plus, Dana Brown(amateur draft hire) has worked out well.
Keith Law: Overall, he’s been outstanding, although having worked with Alex I’m 0% surprised by this. The one real misstep I saw was firing Brian Bridges, whose drafts look even better in hindsight, although I can’t say that Atlanta’s drafts have suffered much in his absence either.

Al: How many owners kill their teams Championship chances in the name of money?
Keith Law: Expanding the playoffs actually makes this easier, so look for that number to increase. I might have said Cleveland except they’re in the playoffs and I think they have as good a chance to win as any team.

Michael: Any explanation for the very good season by Pujols after years of being terrible? How about Tyler Anderson? Is one season just a SSS or did they do something different?
Keith Law: The Cards used Pujols very judiciously – like 1/3 of his PA vs LHP, whom he’s always hit. .315 OBP vs RHP. Anderson’s I think is a little more interesting – some health, some increased use of the CH (which was his best pitch all the way back in college).

Tom: any concern with Cj abrams offense, specifically his low walk rate, in 2022?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: He needs to get stronger. That’s it for me.

Juwan: The Meneses ride was exhilarating in an otherwise horrendous season, do you view the bat as real?
Keith Law: Great story, but no.

Jack: which core would you rather have (pirates young talent / orioles young talent) ?
Keith Law: Orioles. Although they’re short on pitching – this is the time to trade some of this young hitter surplus to go get at least one experienced starter.

G: Oneil Cruz improved at the plate as the season went on, and did enough in the last month to give me genuine optimism about his future at the plate. With that being said, is there any reason for the Pirates to continue playing him at SS next season?
Keith Law: No. He was one of the worst defenders at SS this year by OAA, and given his size the odds have always been against him staying there. I’d move him to CF and let him put the speed to better use.

James: Does this project to be a strong top of the draft? What do you view as its strength?
Keith Law: Much better college pitching in 2023. Don’t know if I’d call it “strong” but it’s a more interesting group of players in the first round.

Tom: Sss alert – but Elijah green proving those swing and miss reports may be accurate – any concern after seeing him struggle with that in his pro debut?
Keith Law: Twelve games. He only played 12 games. We can’t draw any conclusions from that.

Captain Marani: Does Yadier Molina get into the HOF?  In St. Louis, home of The Best Fans in Baseball, he’s considered a mortal lock, but he better hope that he and Buster Posey are never listed side-by-side on the voters’ ballots.
Keith Law: I have a feeling he’s going to end up getting in given enough time. Vizquel was probably going to get in, with a worse case than Molina, until the stories alleging domestic violence and sexual harassment came out. Prior to that, I thought they were similar players – very good but not HoF-worthy, overrated by specific subsets of writers who could be swayed by comments from other players, coaches, managers, etc.

Champdo: How worried should we be about Torkelson
Keith Law: He’s 22. I didn’t love him the one time I saw him as a underclassman, because I didn’t see great bat speed or athleticism, but all he ever did from that point until his debut this year was hit for average and power. I’ll defer to the long history of performance here.

Paul: Do you like the draft lottery? Seems a fair bit more punitive than other lotteries in other leagues with the worst teams potentially falling to the bottom of the top ten rather than the middle of the top ten if they aren’t lucky.
Keith Law: I do think it’ll deter some tanking, and reduces the chances of a team drafting #1 overall three straight years like Houston did. I would prefer to see a system that pays the very best 5-10 players in each class more fairly, with some sort of modified free agency for them, but that’s probably never happening.

Patrick: I feel like a lot of people still sort of view Ohtani playing both ways as sort of a novelty, where the main pull is the *uniqueness* of it. His pitching especially didn’t seem to get the respect it deserves this year, when he is a legit Cy Young candidate. Am I wrong in thinking that?
Keith Law: You are correct now that he’s finally pitching like the guy he was prior to signing with the Angels. He became a CYA contender this year, really.

Troy: Burnes/Yelich/Mitchell for May/Lux/Vargas/Miller who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the Dodgers do that? Yelich’s contract is an albatross. And the Dodgers seem quite able to draft and develop pitching.

Ted: Just wanted to recommend Iain Reid’s new novel “We Spread.” His previous novels have been very entertaining, both are quick reads and I can understand why they were both turned into films. The new one packs a genuine emotional punch, though. Worth checking out.
Keith Law: Not familiar with his work – thank you.

Owen: What do you make of Andrew Heaney’s season? Is it projectable going forward?
Keith Law: Yes.

Devon: Hi Keith! Thanks for the chat! I was wondering how you feel about Wander’s power? Hamate bone might have been bothering him for awhile…
Keith Law: Yeah, write off his 2022 completely for that reason.

Ryan: How concerned are you about Alek Thomas going forward? Great defense but it seemed like he wasn’t able to pull anything with authority in the second half
Keith Law: I was extremely surprised and disappointed by his low contact quality. I never thought he was a big power guy – average at best – but he didn’t hit the ball hard at all in the big leagues this year, and that is a concern.

frank: Sean Hjelle had some good appearances for the Giants at the end of the season.  Is he anything more than a back of the rotation starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I think he’s capable of being a 4th or 5th starter.

Jay: Why is it that, every time I watch “The Godfather” (I & II only, of course), Diane Keaton gets more and more annoying?  Forget about offing Fredo, Tony, you’re better off whacking Kay!
Keith Law: Yes, she’s a poorly written character, to put it mildly. That’s a movie written and directed by men about men. She’s a prop.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: More interesting division/divisional race going into 2023: AL East or NL West? The Diamondbacks seem poised to at least take a step forward and the Giants are bound to look better than they did this year, plus the Orioles, Sox and Rays should be much improved on the AL East side. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think the AL East. The Dodgers are still a juggernaut, and the Rockies are not going to contend next year. But the AL East might have five legitimate contenders next year, and I don’t think any team is head and shoulders above the rest there like the Dodgers are in the West.

Steve: Re: Boston and Bloom – I mean Boston hasn’t been to the ALCS since….2021
Keith Law: It’s a drought.

Pat: Every prospect ranking had Victor Robles as pretty much guaranteed as at least a league average regular- if not signifcantly more.   What happened to him, and is it too late to find it?
Keith Law: He is what will happen to Alek Thomas if Thomas doesn’t start hitting the ball harder.

Leites: Hi Keith!  Curious what you see as the upside for Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia at this point . . .
Keith Law: I still give Montero a chance to be a regular. I don’t see it with Toglia.

Benji: If you were Scott Harris, how aggressive would you be this offseason? Lots of roster turnover is coming, but would you expect that to be filled with more interesting AAAA players and spare vets or legitimate middle to upper class FAs? Long ways to go or with the perpetually weak AL Central does it make sense to push sooner?
Keith Law: I think you have to fix whatever’s going on internally – lack of development + lot of injuries – before you go externally.

Roger: Thoughts on the debuts for Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson? They seemed to get hit pretty hard in AAA but had great outings in the majors. I don’t want to be the box score guy but I haven’t been able to watch actual tape of their MLB starts yet.
Keith Law: Bear in mind that their AAA club is in Reno, about 4000 feet above sea level, and plays a ton of games at other extreme hitters’ parks. I mostly disregard all of their stats from there as I do with Albuquerque.

Appa Yip Yip: Have you gotten any looks at Addison Barger?
Keith Law: Yes and I wrote about him here: https://klaw.me/3wAuQpa

Lorne: Is Baltimore an “attractive” FA destination since the future is/at least looks bright? What once was a great baseball city has suffered through some tough decades (?) and it’d be nice to finally see a rebound
Keith Law: I absolutely believe any team is an attractive destination for free agents if they offer more money than any other club.

JR: Was a little surprised you had Judge as MVP. While clearly you laid out the rational reasons it’s just hard for me to comprehend how a guy like Ohtani that does so well as a hitter and pitcher isn’t an auto win for the MVP. I figured the Judge rhetoric was media trying to talk itself out of Ohtani so I appreciated you laying it out with the numbers to back it up.
Keith Law: I talked about it on my pod yesterday with Stephanie Apstein. I was surprised (but am not disagreeing) that she thought Judge would win it in a rout – I thought Ohtani would get more of those he’s-a-novelty votes. But she probably has a better feel for this than I do.
Keith Law: BTW, thank goodness they didn’t overturn that HR call. What a shitshow that would have been.

Moritz: Hi Keith, not sure if you have seen it or commented on it already. MLB have decided to black out the postseason for all international MLB TV users. Great Job growing the game…
Keith Law: I haven’t seen this and can’t find anything on this in a quick search. Is that accurate? Are they just charging more or something?

Dan: How much credence do you give people like Chris O’Leary (aka The Pain Guy on Twitter)? He claims to have “fixed Adam Wainwright”
Keith Law: Zero.

Kevin: Thoughts on shift “ban?” Do you think teams will just work around it by shifting the LF into short right against lefties or is that too much of a risk leaving the LF line wide open?
Keith Law: I hate it. That’s the one rule change I truly oppose. We’ve never really told teams where to put their fielders before. What reason do we have to start now?

Dan: If you had to pick the top 5ish things for the Nats to get back into contention, what would you choose?
Keith Law: They need more production from their drafts. I see just about all of their draft picks coming through Wilmington (Cole Henry is one big exception, as he’s been hurt so much but pretty good when healthy) and they are not getting the value they need to be getting, especially from top picks.

Dave: Is it really so wrong to think that “gender identity” is a superstitious, metaphysical concept on par with that of a “soul” and that it shouldn’t replace biological sex in law? And that teaching a child that he or she could have been “born in the wrong body” because of their “gender identity” is abhorrent? This seems like the correct rationalist position to take.
Keith Law: It is wrong, because unlike the soul, there is clear scientific evidence for a gender identity that differs from biological sex. I’m sorry that this bothers you, but facts do not care about your feelings.

David: Keith, What do you see as the ceiling for Endy Rodriguez? Also, what position do you think he plays? I’d say catcher but I know having Davis also in the system may force a move.
Keith Law: Above-average everyday catcher. Nice problem to have there. I do think they have a year to figure it out with Davis missing so much of 2022.

Guest: I think the obvious answer for Pujols’ “very good season” is that it turns out that he’s YOUNGER than reported. Everyone had it all wrong this whole time.
Keith Law: That’s funny.

Aaron C.: I know you generally need multiple looks at a prospect to make an informed analysis. But, when it comes to restaurants, if you have a mediocre-to-bad experience the first time, are you inclined to give them another chance(s)?
Keith Law: I’m not. There’s a place in Philly where I had a terrible experience, and even though it’s consistently ranked among the top 5-10 in the city, I don’t see why I’d go back there and spend money again when there are so many other great places here.

James: what do you think of Rockies Brendan Rodgers so far ?
Keith Law: Disappointed. Just hasn’t been the hitter I expected based on my looks in HS.

Jackie: What, if any, awards vote do you have this year?  How is that decided?  Why does a vote get an MVP ballot, instead of a Cy Young or Manager of the Year?  (Also, my bold prediction/guarantee:  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe, a loyal employee of John Henry, will be giving his third place vote, regardless of ballot, to Rafael Devers.)
Keith Law: I have NL RoY. They’re assigned by the BBWAA. Each chapter gets 2 votes for each of the four awards, and each writer typically gets just one ballot unless the chapter is short of voters.

Michael: Will you quit Twitter when the Musk deal closes?
Keith Law: No. I already use it far less than I did 3-4 years ago because it’s pretty toxic and Twitter does such a terrible job of dealing with misinformation and harassment.

Romorr: RE the Orioles question, do you think they should trade for a starter, and sign one in FA? Or trade for 1, and add a bat. I like Kremer, Rodriguez, and Bradish to start the year, so adding 2 starters sounds good to me.
Keith Law: Bradish isn’t a starter. Kremer is more of a back end guy. I do love Hall but the control isn’t there yet. They really need to add a couple of starters.

Michael (W Hartford CT): Do you think that MVP voters should consider the negative impact of having to use a sixth starter in assessing Ohtani’s candidacy?
Keith Law: If a voter were boosting Ohtani for him filling two roles with one roster spot, I’d say that’s ignoring the fact that they need the sixth starter for him, which negates the roster advantage.

Romorr: 174 K’s for Colton Cowser was a surprise to me. The walks are good, but is there anything to the high amount of K’s going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s a solid regular, don’t think he’s going to strike out enough to detract from that, and some of the Ks were from the aggressive promotion to AAA to end his first full pro season.

James: Do you think we will see more teams give out big contracts to very young players to try and save long term ? Like the braves have been doing
Keith Law: Yes – teams already are doing that, or trying it. But Atlanta got two guys to accept well below-market deals (Acuña and Albies) where others haven’t had that success.

Kevin: Has Hayden Wesneski’s major league performance raised his status in your/evaluator’s eyes or too small of a sample size?
Keith Law: Small sample size but I think I was fairly positive on him at the time of the trade, too.

Jason: Does Carlos Beltran get in on the first ballot?  I always put him in that “solid candidate but not a mortal lock” category, but some segments of baseball fandom seem to hold the Houston cheating scandal against him (though, for the life of me, I couldn’t tell you what he actually did).
Keith Law: I think he was a first ballot guy until the scandal. I will be voting for him.

Dave: What are your thoughts on the Scott Harris hire in Detroit?
Keith Law: Everything I’ve heard about him has been positive. I’d really like to know who else they interviewed, though, as it looks like they just ignored MLB’s guidelines, and I have a hard time seeing how diversity is ever going to improve in the exec suites if teams don’t even give non-white male candidates a chance in the process.

James: Would you rather have Zac Gallen right now than Jazz ?
Keith Law: No. I would take either of them quite gladly.

comish4lif: I view the Bonds home run records as legitimate. That’s my personal choice and decision. The main fact pushing my choice is that MLB and Bud Selig did very little to stop it at the time. Now Bud is in the BBHOF and Barry is not. It would be a lot of work to convince me that MLB, Teams, etc didn’t know about the steroids in the game.
Keith Law: Bud Selig (and Bowie Kuhn) did not deserve their enshrinements. But that process – the crony committees – is an absolute joke.

Doug: Cole Winn had a rough year statistically (awful walk rate).  Cause for concern or just tougher competition as a 22 yo in AAA?
Keith Law: Different baseball in AAA (although I think this year the Southern and Texas Leagues used the MLB ball, not in 2021) and that takes some adjustments. Not concerned.

Jason: If you’re the A’s do you keep Langeliers or Murphy behind the plate? Is Murphy worth more or less than the players they got back for Matt Olson?
Keith Law: I’d trade Murphy because of Langeliers – Murphy’s value is through the roof given the years remaining.

Phil: We know KeBryan Hayes defense is strong but seems his bat took a step back this year (maybe health related). Will he hit enough to be an above average 3rd baseman? Is his primary issue launch angle and too many ground balls?
Keith Law: The Pirates’ biggest problem in the last 5 or so years has been non-development of bats. They drafted and acquired a bunch of guys with high contact rates, but then haven’t converted all that contact into quality contact. Hayes is one. Newman is another. It was half of a plan. Now they have their work cut out for them, especially with Hayes who has so much upside if they can get him to hit the ball harder (and why doesn’t he? He’s not small, or weak).

Phil: Any concerns with Riley Greene, seems like   he should’ve had more hrs over that many abs? Are you expecting a much better year in year 2?
Keith Law: He’s so young, I’m not worried either.

James: Would you go to a Savannah Bananas game ?
Keith Law: I don’t go to baseball games unless it’s for work. I don’t know a lot of people who go to the office just for fun. I like what I do, but separating work and non-work is important to me.

Chris: Is Joey Wiemer going to develop into anything?
Keith Law: He could, but there’s a lot of risk in the bat given his swing and miss.

comish4lif: Regarding AAA pitchers like Nelson and Jamison for example – those guys don’t just get to go after every hitter. Right?
They frequently have a plan, something to work on, for example, 1st pitch curve to everyone, all fastballs this inning, etc.
Keith Law: That’s less typical for AAA pitchers than low-A or complex league guys. At AAA they should be calling their own games to prepare them for the next level.

Guest: Is there any hope for the Reds in the next 2-3 years? Nice group of rookie SPs if they can stay healthy but hard to have a lot of confidence they’re going to be able to put a true contender together.
Keith Law: Yes, and the system is very strong. Not next year but maybe 2024-25 they’ll be a sleeper.

Mo: How would you upgrade the Cardinals’ offense this off-season without blocking Walker (RF), Gorman (2B?), Herrera (C), and Winn (SS)?
Keith Law: DH and LF seem like good spots (we’ll see about nootbaar, who was good in a short sample).

Greasy Nick: Curious if you’ve read The Sympathizer?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve read all the Pulitzer winners. Here’s my post on it: http://klaw.me/1ZoZR5T

Matt: Hey Dave, what sex is XXY?
Keith Law: There are a number of conditions that lead to DSDs (differences in sex development) where a person’s genotype and the development of their internal or external sex organs do not match. 5-alpha-reductase deficiency is one. Congenital adrenal hyperplasia is another. Swyer Syndrome is a third. The sex binary is a myth.

Mike: Between Carroll, Lawlar, and PCA, is it fair to be a little less concerned about shoulder injuries to hitters going forward? Those are just three that come to my mind but I feel like there have been more success stories of late with respect to shoulder surgeries
Keith Law: I don’t think we’ve overreacted to those for hitters, but I still think they’re a big concern for pitchers.

Greasy Nick: Do you think Matt Mervis is legit, or is he a textbook AAAA prospect?
Keith Law: He’s another older guy who hit well against younger competition this year, like Vaun Brown, Niko Kavadas, etc. I’ll just say the vast majority of those guys do not pan out. Occasionally one does (Jeff McNeil is the best example of the last decade) but if you’re betting on them as a group, the odds are overwhelmingly against them.

Mike: SSS but Kelenic did look better in his last stint and was whiffing less. Cautious optimism?
Keith Law: Too much value to give on him.

George: Which chapter are you:  part of the Philadelphia chapter, or one of the misfit toys in a nebulous “National” chapter?
Keith Law: Philly.

James: Do you prefer hot or iced coffee ?? Dependent on season ?
Keith Law: Hot. Never got into iced coffee. Ice numbs the taste buds, so you end up tasting the notes in coffee much less when it’s cold. That’s the same reason ice cream has so much sugar in it – you need more to counteract the effects of the temperature.

Guy B: What should the Red Sox do with Devers?
Keith Law: Pay the man.

James: Favorite AFL stadium ??
Keith Law: Salt River is the best but I have a soft spot for the old-time charm of Scottsdale.

James: Do you like coffee ice cream ?
Keith Law: Yes if it’s dark and tastes like coffee and not like a fucking single-shot venti latte.

Thomas: If Barry Bonds weren’t a black man with a generally … prickly disposition, would his status as the record holder be viewed differently?  If it had been Mark McGwire or Kirby Puckett who had hit 73, would there be so much debate over the legitimacy?
Keith Law: It’s just a gut feeling, but I agree with your take – Bonds is an Angry Black Man and the white gatekeepers don’t like that.

Scott of Lincolnshire: On the shift: could you start seeing infielders more in motion pre-pitch?  Like if Schwarber is up, have your SS running towards 2nd base right when pitch is thrown?
Keith Law: I suggested this on the podcast yesterday – it could be weirdly entertaining, like having the one man in motion on offense in the NFL.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wondering if you’ve seen or heard about Red Sox prospects Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela? Are they guys or GUYS?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Bleis but saw and wrote about Rafaela multiple times this summer.

Tom2: I see where Roger Maris Jr wants separate HR categories for his dad and Judage and for Bonds, McGwire et al. But I don’t remember seeing him explain how his dad hit 16, 39, then 61 HRs in 3 season. You know, if we’re sure everything was on the up and up back then.
Keith Law: https://www.theonion.com/roger-maris-jr-sets-single-season-record-for-…

A Salty Scientist: I love your yearly column on ‘misses.’ When thinking about these for evaluating your own biases in evaluation, how do you try to determine whether someone hit on their 99th percentile outcome versus a more systematic issue where you had their 50th percentile (and whole distribution) pegged incorrectly?
Keith Law: McNeil is a good example of someone where I didn’t change anything. He’s a 99th percentile guy, with an unusual skill set too. Whereas Bieber is someone who did change my process, as did Goldschmidt, guys who found different paths to success from what I anticipated or considered likely, and thus required me to open my mind more and see those new growth patterns or possibilities.

Heather: Speaking of Kirby Puckett, should he be in the HOF?
Keith Law: I thought he was a borderline case as a player, but I do not believe we should start removing players once enshrined. I wouldn’t have voted for him at the time, though.

Appa Yip Yip: I find it hard to believe, given that we know coaches in the minors were recommending sticky stuff to pitchers in the minors, that there weren’t coaches in the 90s taking guys aside and being like, listen you gotta add some muscle. Developing players is how minor league coaches get promotions. Blaming individuals for systemic issues is a pretty classic play though.
Keith Law: Or coaches in the 60s and 70s saying, hey, these little green pills will give you a little more focus. To say nothing of the 100-plus MLB players with therapeutic use exemptions for ADHD medications that are built around amphetamines. They improve attention, reduce reaction times, and speed executive functioning. Hank Aaron even admitting using them at least once.

Steve: one thing overlooked in all the single-season HR records talk is that almost all of them came in expansion years or within a couple of years of expansion, which is why Judge’s feat this year is all the more impressive and should be held in that regard rather than some mythical “clean” record
Keith Law: Correct – I pointed that out on one of the podcasts yesterday. We don’t have asterisks for expansion years even though we have very strong evidence that those years (and the temporary talent dilution they create) lead to move outlier performances. Maris hit 61 in the Angels/Senators 2 expansion year. McGwire & Sosa had their chase in the Dbacks/Rays expansion year. Even the Marlins/Rockies expansion year led to a huge spike in leaguewide offense.

Kevin: Could Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Chourio turn into Julio/Wander type of prospects?
Keith Law: I think they already are. Chourio is more like Wander, Elly more like Julio (who has tightened his approach a lot since A-ball, which Elly needs to do).

James: You admit you are not a football/NFL fan.  (Or at least that used to be the case).   Is the trolling of Carson Wentz a bit of sorts, or do you dislike him for some reason?
Keith Law: My wife is a huge Eagles fan, and I saw more than enough of Carson Wentz to be glad to see the team move on from him.
Keith Law: Hurts is a blast to watch.

Freddie: What’s the ceiling for Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, borderline star.

Tony: Where do the White Sox even go from here? Bloated payroll, underperforming players, weak FA class, bad farm so little trade ammo… what a mess!
Keith Law: I think you lean into this core at least one more year and try to contend again in a winnable division in 2023.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – thank you all so much for the questions & for reading. I’ll head to the AFL later this month and will file a few scouting notebooks from out there, after which I’ll get to free agent rankings. Stay safe!