Klawchat 7/14/22.

I’ve got a new mock draft up for subscribers to the Athletic, a ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft class with scouting reports on each, and another file with scouting reports on 30+ additional players in this draft. I’ll post a final mock on Saturday morning, a Futures Game recap that night, and then draft analysis starting Sunday night.

Keith Law: And other times I feel like I should go. Klawchat.

Carl: Do you think more teams will do deals like the Braves just made with the Royals to get a high draft pick?
Keith Law: Most teams value the picks more highly than KC seems to have valued this one. I think there are more buyers than sellers, so to speak. That also tells me that MLB needs to wake up and make all picks tradeable – even this minor trade got quite a bit of attention.

Josh Smith: What should do the Mets do with Francisco Alvarez considering their lack of production at catcher and DH? What is the ETA for him?
Keith Law: I don’t know about his defense being ready for the majors … my take from seeing him a good bit last year and talking to scouts this year is that it’s probably not, and that’s before you consider who he might be catching for the Mets. But the bat would be valuable right now if you could live with him developing on defense.

Deke: I got a promoted ad on Facebook today that said if you took Tylenol multiple times during pregnancy and your child has autism, you may be entitled to compensation. Sooooo, new nonsense conspiracy theory just dropped.
Keith Law: Facebook’s “efforts” to fight disinformation are just laughable. We need to accept they don’t care and deal with them accordingly.
Keith Law: (I just finished reading Dan Pfeiffer’s Battling the Big Lie, and he makes some rather pointed arguments about Facebook being worse than pretty much any other site for this.)

TomBruno23: I have asked about Christian Little before because he is a local kid and I follow his career…put up a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 with Cotuit and is transferring to LSU under Wes Johnson. What is a reasonable expectation for him 2023 and going forward?
Keith Law: Yep, for folks who don’t know, Little matriculated early at Vanderbilt, even though he might have been a first-round pick out of HS. By forgoing the draft, he gave up a shot at probably $2-3 million and the benefit of professional coaching. He hasn’t been anywhere near expectations since going to school. Maybe the new program turns it around, but it’s not like Vandy is some slouch at developing pitching, either. I don’t rank guys a year out for the draft but if he were in this year’s class he wouldn’t be on my top 100.

John: What is your overall assessment of Elly De LA Cruz? Considering it’s likely his biggest shortcoming, how much improvement would you like to see with his plate discipline to where it wouldn’t be a major concern?
Keith Law: He’s a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Probably the best pure athlete in the minors. Has risk, for sure, but the upside is absurd.

Deke: The winner of the 2024 presidential election is…
Keith Law: TBD.

John: If you could use the information you now know, and go back and re-rank your pre-season top 10, how different would it look?
Keith Law: Pro prospects? I don’t think there’s a huge difference in the order of a top 10 – people get way too caught up in specific rankings, and don’t spend enough time reading what I write about each player. The only one I don’t feel great about now is Torkelson. I should have listened to my instincts more there and had him lower, out of the top 10.

MJ: Thoughts on Max Castillo? Has he shown enough to make you think he can be at least a 4/5 starter type?
Keith Law: No chance. Below average fastball and bad delivery for a starter.

Dave: Is the answer to the question who will be the first one to the majors from this years draft anyone other than Kumar Rocker or he is a certainty to be the first one.  Does he make it this year?
Keith Law: I think so – the team that takes him will likely be the one that views him as a potential reliever for September.

Paul: Any reason to think the same thing could happen to Rocker again this year after a team looks at his medical records? I’m still wondering what could have been so bad that the Mets didn’t want anything to do with him. (I’d assume even if it were something required TJ surgery they’d still have signed him.)
Keith Law: I agree that if it were just TJ they would have worked it out – they took JT Ginn after TJ and paid him. Rocker also had a minor shoulder operation last fall, so that’s also an indicator that it wasn’t just some minor elbow thing. But I think someone will bite this time around because everyone has more information than they did last year.

Mason: The A’s have gambled on high risk, high reward talents in recent years (Beck, Murray) b/c they can’t afford top end talents in the open market. By that logic, would Prielipp at #19 make sense? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Haven’t heard them with him at all, but yes, your logic is sound. They almost always do it with hitters, rather than pitchers. Puk is the last pitcher they took in the first round at all.

Chris: What are your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez?  It looks like he’s going to be a super star, but maybe some of this is unsustainable.
Keith Law: Superstar. Stays in CF, which I did not believe would be the case out of last season. He’s gotten faster, which is very unusual, and done great work to avoid becoming too big, something I did worry about with his frame.

Ben: If Dylan Crews were in this draft, around what pick would he go?
Keith Law: The corner bats are mostly in the 10-25 range. He’d be near the top of that.

JT: Is it fair for me to think of the Montoyo firing as “you can’t fire the players”? I know my fellow Blue Jays fans had some quibbles with his in-game management style, but by all accounts, he seemed very well respected and capable.
Keith Law: I thought Kaitlyn McGrath’s piece was very good, but also made the team’s reasons for firing Montoyo seem pretty shallow. Maybe something else will become public eventually but my take was yours – this was a “we can’t fire the players” firing.

Bucco Brad: As a pirates fan when should I expect this team to compete for a playoff berth again?
Keith Law: I think you’re 3+ years from that.

Nate: Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!
Keith Law: He’s a great story – signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year – and definitely a prospect but there’s too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.

Mike: How do you explain the success of the M’s and O’s? Legit or SSS?
Keith Law: Winning streaks are nothing but SSS. They have no predictive value.

Kyle: Sam Horn going to Mizzou?
Keith Law: I assume so. I wrote about him in the extra capsules page linked up top. He’s already in Columbia for football stuff.

Miguel: Are you as high on Gunnar Henderson as others seem to be?
Keith Law: I don’t know what that means exactly. I think he’s a top 15 prospect in baseball if you view him as a 3b, where he’s a ++ glove.

Stephen: As a Royals fan I’m pretty embarrassed today. How do you think the org is viewed by the rest of the league after this? I know the news  is less than 24 hours old, but curious if you’ve heard anything.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything, but I don’t understand people blaming the org for the idiocy of the players.

Drewy: Bo Naylor appears to have figured it out. Is he back on your radar, having fallen off your top 100 list in recent editions?
Keith Law: Yes.

Booby M: Who do you see the Yankees connected with at pick 25?
Keith Law: See my mock draft linked up top.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s your opinion on Spencer Horwitz? MLB bat, or fringey reliever trade bait?
Keith Law: The latter. Can’t hit LHP, not enough thump for a no-position platoon guy.

Brett: Last year we had some surprises in the top 10, do you see that happening again? And who could potentially sneak in the top 10 that’s not being mocked there?
Keith Law: Yes. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Justin Crawford, Brandon Barriera, or Dylan Lesko end up in the top 10 with under-slot deals.

Zac: What is Cam Collier’s floor in the draft? On the athletic you wrote his ceiling but I didn’t see what his floor would be?
Keith Law: I don’t put floors for every player – I have to hear that such-and-such a team would not pass on a player. In the unlikely event he gets to 11, I believe the Mets would just take him.

Slurpie: I thought Johan Rojas’ promotion was too aggressive considering his performance, but all the numbers seem to be really good so far at the new level. Do you think he’s back on a good trajectory?
Keith Law: Rojas’ batted ball data was better than his results in high A, but also this is a really small sample size and Reading (AA) is the best hitters’ park in the Eastern League.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a favorite college stadium to scout players? How about a favorite college town on your scouting list?
Keith Law: Nashville and Louisville, if you’re considering cities. If you’re talking actual college towns, I love Charlottesville and Athens.

Darren: Should I stop kidding myself that Will Benson has figured something out and may still have a chance to be a MLB option?
Keith Law: It might just be the switch to a different baseball in AAA. A lot of hitters seem to have “figured something out” by moving to triple A this year and I don’t know how we could easily tell which is which.

Moe Mentum: Have you explored/read any of the winners (or finalists) of the Thurber Prize for American Humor? Would any have been worthy of study in your favorite undergraduate course “Comedy and the Novel” (though the Prize wasn’t established until after you graduated)?
Keith Law: That’s all nonfiction, I believe. That class I always talk about was just fiction.

Jon: Quinn Priester’s curveball looked pretty damn pretty in his last outing. Slower start to him for the season, but does he still have #2/3 starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes, he had an oblique strain, I believe, nothing that would change his upside.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Trey Faltine? I assume he’s expected to be drafted and sign this year but is his bat going to be good enough in pro ball?
Keith Law: He struck out 104 times this spring. I don’t think I’d even draft him this year, not as a junior who I presume would want to be paid enough to get him to forgo his senior year.

Joshua: You’ve stated the Nats don’t really keep their draft intentions too hidden, and you have them taking Kevin Parada. To the best of your knowledge is there a realistic player they would take over him or who they would take if Parada is off the board? Thanks.
Keith Law: Elijah Green isn’t out of the question but right now I think he goes ahead of them.

Alex: Does the ability to get paid for NIL have any impact on mid to late round Juniors from signing and instead going back to school?
Keith Law: Don’t know of that specifically but there’s a rumor Paxton Kling pulled his name out of the draft to go to LSU in part because he has some NIL money lined up. Good for him, if so.

Mark: Best board game you’ve played in the past 6 months?
Keith Law: Three Sisters.
Keith Law: New game, i assume you mean.

Michael: When do we get to see your midseason top-50? One of the things I look forward to most every year – thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: After the draft, so I can include those guys.

David: Who are some HS players you could see making it to the Cubs at pick 47, that would be solid value?
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That’s way too far down the draft for a prediction, and I don’t want to just give you a WAG.

Tom: i’m excited to see your thoughts on Dustin Saenz and Jeremy de la rosa now that they’re in wilmington
Keith Law: Trust me, I’m excited they’re here. The Blue Rocks lineup was … not an area of strength.

John B: Thank you for all the great info.  I wanted to make sure I am clear on something you said on a recent Nats podcast.  Paraphrasing here, but you made it sound like if Jones, Holliday, and Parada are gone that they would take a college player with a lower ceiling.  I am curious who to look for in that situation.  Neto?  Cross?  Jung?  Also would not signing the pick and getting #6 in 23 be worth considering?  Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that. Also, not signing the pick is never worth considering. People suggest it every year and it is always a terrible idea. It’s a full year of wasted value. If it happens organically, like the Mets/Rocker, fine, but you never do this by choice. Unless you want the next scouting director to get the extra pick!

Aaron: What are some reasonable expectations for Zach Neto and Brooks Lee? Worried the Cubs are again going hit tool + makeup over upside
Keith Law: Regular at shortstop and above-average regular at 2b or 3b, respectively. Full scouting reports available in the top 100 link at the top of the chat.

T: Where would you rank Kevin Parada if at the end of the day if his arm is not good enough to be a 1st division catcher? Or better said, Kevin Parada’s bat at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Arm isn’t going to keep anyone from being a catcher any more. There isn’t enough baserunning for that. And I don’t think Parada has to move off C for his glove.

Chad: They don’t have the #1 pick to have the huge bonus $ this year, but do you think the Bucs will try to use the draft this weekend in similar ways to last year? Would Termarr Johnson be a guy that might take a cut to help out going over slot with the next couple picks?
Keith Law: I don’t know bonus expectations for Termarr (or most players, really). The Pirates do have an extra pick at 36, though, and could get creative with that – going under slot at 4 to go over for some HS player who gets to the later pick. My guess is several teams go after that type of player in the 31-39 range.

David: Hi Keith, Thanks for all the great draft work. I’ve been impressed with Oneil Cruz’s defense at short stop, although my expectations were low. Do you think he could stay there for at least a few years before moving to the outfield?
Keith Law: They may choose to leave him there but I think he’s best suited to another position.

Walshy: Aaron Ashby ever a guy that will get to 5 or 6 innings consistently or better in smaller spurts? The stuff and K rates are absurd.
Keith Law: don’t think he’ll have the command for that.

Grover: I recall you weren’t bullish on Julio Urias being able to come back after his shoulder injury (I wasn’t either) but was this basically an outlier/one in a million type of thing or are we reaching a point with those types of shoulder injuries that they are more recoverable in the same way we started to see with elbow injuries in the last decade or so?
Keith Law: Extreme outlier – I think he’s the only pitcher ever to come back from that injury/surgery and hold up as a starter.
Keith Law: Which is good news, but one exception does not disprove the rule.

Clay, Rutherford: Have you had a chance to see Myrtle Beach SS Kevin Made in action? 19 years old, has hit 9 HR this year in an offensively repressed league, is walking about five times as often as he did last year, and carries a .975 fielding percentage at SS (I know, not a great measure of defensive prowess, but still).
Keith Law: Saw him in the spring. The boosted walk rate is great news and a surprise, as I thought he was a good bit behind even his teammates in that regard. That club is pretty loaded with hitting prospects.

Tom: Ok ok i’m prepared to get denied here, but can we at least say Nats Luis Garcia is a regular?
Keith Law: Based on what? Sub 0 WAR again this year, 2 BB and 30 K so far in the majors.

Tim: Does Strider’s slider play up because of how good his fastball is? His slider is running a pretty high whiff rate despite reports of it being a below average pitch
Keith Law: Yes, the fastball has exceptional vertical movement. Great piece by Justin Choi on Fangraphs today about it.

ProjectHanyo: So with the Paxton Kling news that he will skip the draft and go to LSU, I saw a comment that one should go to colleges like Vandy or LSU than pro ball because of the minor league life is horrible and college life is great and among your peers, and MLB training staffs are 1/100th of the value of the training staffs of LSU or Vandy’s. I facepalmed so hard, surely MLB teams can’t be that incompetent not to mention the other stuff
Keith Law: College is right for some guys. It’s not right for everyone. That’s certainly not true about training staffs, but I think there is – or was, with this silly realignment happening – an argument that the life of a college player is easier than the life of a minor league player when it comes to travel.

Frank: When Henry Davis was selected last year there was some question if he could stick behind the plate.  Is there any question now that he will be a full time catcher or does that question still remain?
Keith Law: I never had that question about his glove, so of course I’m saying no, there’s no question now.

Guest: Is there any defense for Shane McClanahan not being the ASG starter?
Keith Law: That the all-star game is a silly marketing event and we shouldn’t care about it? OK fine there’s no defense.

Ian: Is Enrique Bradfield Jr. as good as he is fun to watch? Not sure how he profiles as a pro.
Keith Law: Yes. He’ll be in the 1-1 discussion next year, I think.

Rob: Thanks for answering my question re Blaze Jordan on The Athletic. Although he was known for power as a prep you mentioned we’re not seeing it now. I would have thought this (presumed) emphasis on contact would be part of the development process and that not showing power wouldn’t be a concern. Am I misunderstanding? Was there a swing change to emphasize contact that makes his power inaccessible or is there still a chance all of his skills consolidate?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice now. That swing isn’t going to produce game power.

Larry: Is Jobe going to be an ace? How is his stuff looking in the limited innings
Keith Law: It’s been down. Multiple scouts have told me more mid-rotation guy, like 3rd/4th starter, based on what they’ve seen this year. Could always come back.

Jeff: Should Orioles look to still sell Santander or Mancini?  Stay the course?  Not sure they should be buyers.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t let a winning streak divert them from their long-term plan. They should sell opportunistically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this chat, as I have a radio hit right now. I’ll do a Q&A over at The Athletic on Sunday afternoon and again at some point on Monday once the draft has begun. Thank you as always for all of your questions!