Klawchat 12/23/21

It’s been too long, so let’s do one more of these before the holiday.

Keith Law: It was Christmas Eve (Eve), babe … in the Klawchat…

Joe: For the Eppler and Showalter hires, fair to say they are bad process, but good result?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. Eppler, maybe a bad process, but a great result. Showalter is a terrible process leading to a bad result. The owner saw the red flags, and ignored them. They may win a few more games this year, maybe even advance in the playoffs (although Showalter doesn’t have a great playoff track record), but the internal personnel cost will supersede that.

Hank: At what point in the lockout will we have to worry about a delayed season and/or missed games?
Keith Law: If the players can get in 3 weeks of spring training, we won’t miss regular season games.

Mac: If Carter Young cuts down on the swing could he go in the top half of the first round?
Keith Law: Cuts down on the strikeouts, yes. Right now, he’s Logan Davidson, at best, which is the very back of the round.

Evar: Best guess…who is the fastest player to even play in MLB?
Keith Law: Billy Hamilton.

Bruce: Is it feasible for the Phillies to use Stott at SS starting in 2022, both from the is he ready to hit in MLB side and also can he succeed as a SS long-term and improve their defense?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: On what evidence would you say he’s ready to hit in the majors right now? I mean, it’s possible that he is, but the evidence doesn’t seem to suppor that.

addoeh: Least favorite household chore?  Washing the dishes is the worst for me.
Keith Law: Don’t mind that. I hate chores that don’t produce a visible or tangible result. Wash the dishes? Clean dishes, clean sink, clean counters. That’s sufficient psychic reward for me.
Keith Law: Laundry, vacuuming, ironing – all produce a visible result. I don’t mind those. I actually like ironing. I get in the flow of that one. For least favorite … I mean, weeding produces a tangible result, but it’s endless.

Chris: What’d you think about Jerry dipoto’s comment about trying Julio in centerfield some this year?
Keith Law: Not out of the question. I don’t think he’s a CF long-term, but sounds like he could handle it on a part-time basis now.

Ethan: There was talk of Heaney having a Robbie Ray like breakout in LA. Buying it?
Keith Law: There is a lot of space between Andrew Heaney 2021 and Robbie Ray 2021. I’ll take something in the middle.

Molly: What should we expect from a full MLB season from Joey Bart?
Keith Law: 20+ homers, some walks, low average, OBP in the low .300s, plus defense.

Skrip: Is Ted Cruz actually serious about running for president in ’24? Or is this yet another blatant attempt to keep himself in the news as often as possible? I’d sooner vote for Big Bird as governor of Texas.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me in 2014 if Trump was serious about running for President in ’16, I would have said it was a blatant attempt to keep himself in the news, and he’d never win. I overestimated the country.

Johnny Utah: I really wanted to listen to your interview with Alton Brown but I boycotted your podcast because you gave Julie DiCaro a platform. She’s literally the worst. Literally.
Keith Law: I’ve never interviewed Alton Brown, and you’re a moron. Fuck off.

Dana: Can Gallo handle a season in CF if the Yanks sign/acquire a corner OFer?
Keith Law: I think he can handle the defense, but worry about him being healthy and productive if he’s playing 150 games there.

Aaron Rodgers Family: We told you he was nuts.
Keith Law: He’s about two webcast interviews away from endorsing Q.

Tom: What’s your Favorite Alcoholic Holiday Beverage?
Keith Law: I don’t drink anything different around the holidays, unless there’s homemade eggnog around, but I haven’t made that in years because no one drinks it from me.

Brenden: Critical race theory gets a lot of attention. But I haven’t been able to find a good read on what it actually is in practice that isn’t coming from a political angle. What is a good source I can learn more about it?
Keith Law: I’d go back to Kimberlée Crenshaw, who coined the term, for her definitions. She also gave a great interview with Vanity Fair this summer about the made-up controversy around CRT. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/07/how-critical-race-theory-maste…

Troy: Is Keston Huira fixable offensively?
Keith Law: Yes, but someone has to undo whatever the Brewers did to his swing. He looks like he’s swinging an axe, but upside down.

JR: Were you surprised how many deals were completed before the lockout? Wouldn’t both sides have an incentive to wait and see what new CBA looked like? Or the uncertainty made the existing rules more appealing?
Keith Law: I was – but your second question might be right. Maybe both sides just wanted to lock in what they could.

Matt: Why did free agents sign deals if they knew they were gonna be locked out? Aren’t they missing out on what’s probably gonna be more money in a new CBA?
Keith Law: We don’t know that. What if the minimum salary goes up by 80-100%, so there’s relatively less money going around for veterans.

Don: Do you buy that the Sox didn’t give the qualifying offer to Rodon as a favor to him? Or did they just mess up?
Keith Law: They know his arm better than anyone.

JR: You were about the only one I saw to note how little sense Thor’s signing was for both sides. Thor wants to rebuild value and stay healthy; LAA will push him hard to make playoffs and will have no incentive to limit his innings if they are in contention late. Seems like a potential for both sides to end up regretting it.
Keith Law: Agreed.

section 34: Who is the Carson Wentz of baseball?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, your question was intercepted on its way to the chat.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas cookie?
Keith Law: We make tricolor cookies, sometimes called 7-layer cookies (wrong, there should only be chocolate on one side) or rainbow cookies (wrong, unless your rainbow has three colors) or Italian flag cookies (I’ll allow it). They’re such an endeavor that we almost never do it any other time.

Brian: What’s the early timeline on offseason prospect list updates?
Keith Law: If you’re asking when my prospect lists will come out, we are aiming for January 31st.

Matt: Did you know the “War on Christmas” started when southern evangelicals complained to Ronald Reagan that they didn’t like people saying Merry X-mas, and not Merry Christmas. The Right ran with it for 40 years and here we are.
Keith Law: Anyone who falls for the “war on christmas” nonsense probably also thinks we’re teaching critical race theory in kindergarten and that vaccine mandates are communism. Also, the real threat to christmas is the inexorable decline of religiosity in developed nations. Good luck with that one!

xxx(yyy): 2021s best new cookbook?
Keith Law: Nik Sharma’s The Flavor Equation.

Jason: When are players no longer part of the union? When they officially retire? I’m mainly curious about retired players who now work for teams
Keith Law: You’re in the union if you’re on a 40-man roster. That’s it.

Adam D.: If the reports are true that the Giants are no enamored enough with the current free agents to hand out any nine-figure deals, do you agree with Farhan and company sticking to that process, or do you feel like a big-market team like the Giants owe it to the fanbase to make a splashy move?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the idea that a team has to mollify a fanbase with a deal they think isn’t good from a baseball perspective.

Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to scout Boston’s Brayan Bello? Does he have the ceiling of a MLB Starting Pitcher in a system thin (barren?) on SP prospects?
Keith Law: Reliever risk there for sure. I don’t think he’s their most likely big-league starter.

Dave: True or False. Trump endorsing the vaccine will begin the MAGA backlash against him
Keith Law: Already has, no?
Keith Law: The cognitive dissonance around that one will be enough to cloud out the sun for weeks.

Joshua: As a Nats fan, is there any chance that Victor Robles becomes even close to the top 10 prospect player many thought he would become? Or is it time to maybe trade him and let him get a clean start? Thanks.
Keith Law: Not until he starts hitting the ball harder.

Don: Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet for Matt Olson? Who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that? If Vaughn is what they believed him to be on Draft Day, he’ll become Olson or better.

Matt: If pitching velocities keep going up, doesn’t there reach a point where hitters can’t hit?
Keith Law: They can’t go much higher than they are now, but also, we’ve learned that hitters can hit 100 mph+ if they can figure out when it’s coming.

JR: Did you get to meet Lauren Mayberry in person when you saw her on tour recently (if so, you’re a lucky bastard)? Or did your podcast not result in an in person invite? PS – I caught the tour in Vegas, show was excellent. I was glad they didn’t have the guys sing a song, like they did last time I saw them live lol.
Keith Law: We did not, alas, but the show was still wonderful.

Joe: The Cubs keep saying they’re going to “spend intelligently,” which is probably a euphemism for “continue to be cheap.” But with their resources and lack of long term commitments, wouldn’t Correa be the most intelligent way to spend?
Keith Law: They spent on Stroman, so they weren’t cheap on that one.

Joshua: What type of ceiling do you believe Cole Henry has? He looked pretty good in the AFL (or so I’ve heard because I saw none of the AFL haha).
Keith Law: He’s had so many injuries already that his probability of staying a starter isn’t that high.

Grant: Do you see Congress enabling section 3 of the 14th amendment if Trump officially announces his intent to run?
Keith Law: I doubt they have the courage.

Cormac: Read Blood Meridian yet? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe 10 years ago. Great novel if you can stomach the violence.

Tom: D-backs will have a top ___ farm system after the 2022 draft.
Keith Law: Depends on who they take, no?

Appa Yip Yip: Rewild your lawn throw down clover and wildflowers. Grass is for suckers.
Keith Law: Better for the environment, too. Just not sure the neighbors would be cool with that.

JR: Toronto had Ray on their team for a year, so probably knew him better than anyone and essentially elected to give Gausman (a year older than Ray) the same money Ray got (OK, Ray got $5MM more), but does this alarm you at all? Obviously we don’t know Ray’s mindset (maybe he was adamant about not going back to Tor), but  wouldn’t you rather have Ray at 5/115, then Gausman at 5/110?
Keith Law: Would you? I’m not sure I would. It’s at least extremely close, to the point that I would not draw any conclusions from Toronto’s choice here.

Dude: Thoughts on Buxton signing? They do a good job of meeting in middle?
Keith Law: Yes, and I like the idea of him staying with the Twins, and the Twins potentially getting his MVP-level years, too.

Sedona: Did you get to watch Owen White at the AZL?  He was awarded as the best pitcher and seems like he has the tools.  Do you think he’s a legit rotation arm?  Ceiling?
Keith Law: Saw him, he looked good, and it’s great to see him healthy. Further than that, you’ll have to wait for the prospect rankings.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas movie?
Keith Law: Muppet Christmas Carol, obviously.

Mike: Keith, what did you think of the Red Sox trade with the Brewers?
Keith Law: Yawn. Binelas does hit the ball very hard, at least.

Turner: You have mentioned in your system rankings that the Orioles need to be much better on the international signings, when is a realistic time to check in and see if they have made improvements on that front?
Keith Law: They’re not there yet, at least. That takes years, maybe 4-5 years after you first reinvest in that side of the business, since you have to strike oral agreements with players when they’re 13 or 14 years old.

Ml: Is Ryan mountcastle a good enough hitter to be valuable despite his lack of defense?
Keith Law: To be more than replacement level? Yes. To be consistently above-average? Given his lack of defense and lack of patience, no, not yet.

Uncle Aaron: Weren’t you on track to have a HOF vote at one point?
Keith Law: I’ve had one for three years already.

John: Do you see Triston Casas eventually developing significantly more power?
Keith Law: I’d bet on yes.

Dude: Haven’t seen any Jud Fabian talk on ‘22 draft boards. Is there ANY chance he goes higher than last year?
Keith Law: Slim chance. The guy struck out at an excessive rate and couldn’t make adjustments.

John: The Brandon Walter emergence is interesting.  Considering that he was in your backyard in college, was ever on your radar?
Keith Law: Never. Not a prospect out of HS, of course. Missed his junior year with TJ, and wasn’t throwing this hard as a senior at UD.

JJ: Jesus was never vaccinated!
Keith Law: I mean, he also died at 33, so perhaps that’s not the W you think it is…

R. Mann: Have you ever heard the NYPD choir sing “Galway Bay”? It. Is. Stunning.
Keith Law: Only the Bing Crosby version.

Pat: How worried should Mets fans be about Showalter’s track record with young pitchers. Granted, they’re trying to win now & it won’t affect DeGrom & Max,, but, if he pulls the same idiocy that he pulled in Baltimore, it’ll affect them down the line.
Keith Law: Do they have any young starters to worry about? The system is heavily weighted towards bats right now, they don’t have a young starter in the potential OD rotation right now, and by the time someone like Matt Allan is on the radar, Buck will either have won a WS or been fired.

Henry: Thoughts on Joan Didion? Saddened about her passing.
Keith Law: Likewise. I feel like she’s remembered more for her novels and memoirs and not enough for her feature writing in the 1970s.

Curious in Seattle: Best guess on Harry Ford’s long term position?  Enough bat for the outfield?
Keith Law: Catcher.

Bob: Will the IFA date be pushed back if the lockout is still in effect, as expected?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t affect that.

Fradog: Why are Jays fascinated with Biggio? Can he play 2B at MLB level?
Keith Law: 1. I don’t know. 2. Not well.

Matt: Do you think Schilling gets in? Im seeing an alarming number of public votes for him.
Keith Law: Don’t know. I didn’t vote for him.

Heather: Did you have a reaction to everybody and their dog getting into the HOF a couple of weeks ago?
Keith Law: That process has become a farce. It’s largely invalidated the writers’ votes. Jim Kaat was never a Hall of Famer. Neither was Harold Baines. The players and managers on the committees are just putting in their buddies.

John: As a lefty who loves to cook, how do you feel about the municipalities banning gas stoves in new construction?
Keith Law: Sucks for cooking, but the environmental damage wrought by fracking is no joke.

JR: Have/will you watch new Spiderman or Matrix movies? Or not your thing?
Keith Law: Zero interest in the Matrix movie. I only watched the first one and thought it was fine but incredibly derivative.

Fradog: Can Espinal be MLB avg for Jays? Love the glove but not sold on bat.
Keith Law: Great extra player. Not a regular for me. Same reason you said.

ChrisP: I had someone go off about “big pharma” and how it’s impacting society…and it just made me think that these people have no idea what the reason is behind people living longer today than 100 years ago. It’s just this big elusive “evil” thing to them.
Keith Law: It’s something they read on Facebook, not something they understand. There’s this sort of magical thinking about the human body that occupies most of the people who oppose Big Pharma … sometimes it’s a religious belief, sometimes it’s a false appeal to nature, sometimes it’s just ignorance, thinking the body is like a car or other machine that behaves predictably in response to treatments. We’re just not smart.

Sedona: Out of Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt…. which ones has the best chance to be a mid rotation arm?
Keith Law: That will certainly be answered in the Dbacks top 20 in January.

Cubbie Blue: Reginald Preciado, Kevin Alcantara, and James Triantos seemed to be getting a lot of buzz in short season ball.   You find them at least interesting as well?
Keith Law: I definitely answered that in the Rizzo trade writeup and Prospect of the Year columns.

John: This might seem like an odd question, but if you had a chance to do it again in the present day, would you go to Harvard again?  I hold the Ivy League schools in high regard, but depending on your major, I’d bet you might get a slightly better education at one of the top liberal arts schools.  (No bias — my alma mater is not in either category.)
Keith Law: Yes, because of the value of the name, and the power of the school’s network. But I agree I would have gotten a better education at a smaller school, and probably would have enjoyed it more.

Chris: What do you think about sports leagues shortening quarantine rules for vaccinated players who test positive?
Keith Law: As long as that’s based on the latest evidence, sure.

Chris: Just FYI I watched new Matrix last night and it was pretty terrible.  And I liked the first 3 (esp the first 2)
Keith Law: I’m not shocked. Fan service films/books usually aren’t very good.

Chris: i know youre usually *yawn* about the R5 draft, but im still having Whitlock PTSD, do you think someone could take Josh Breaux as DH/3rd C and I’d watch him bash homers?
Keith Law: Doubt that one.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good and I don’t think he gets taken/kept.
Keith Law: Maria Torres wrote up a list of some Rule 5 candidates, and while I wouldn’t select all of those guys if I were a GM, there were some good names on there. Gilberto Jimenez is the best prospect who was left unprotected: https://theathletic.com/3020049/2021/12/16/a-rule-5-draft-candidate-fr…

Jenna: I know you have no interest in this whatsoever, but I’d seriously vote for you for president. Thoroughly impressed with your ideas, common sense, analytical abilities, virtually everything you opine. This country would be better off, I have no doubt.
Keith Law: Thank you, but that job would destroy me. I’m not cut out for that line of work, even assuming I could get more than my immediate family to vote for me.

Appa Yip Yip: My favourite thing (I hate it) about the people complaining about big pharma vaccines is that treatment is orders of magnitudes more profitable than prevention. Big pharma would love nothing more than to sell monoclonal antibody treatments in perpetuity to unvaxxed idiots.
Keith Law: Or a pill you have to take every day for the rest of your life. That’s the business model, and it’s why we have far more treatments for things like depression or high cholesterol or ADHD, even in the absence of clear evidence of efficacy, and fewer new antibiotics.

Jay: I watched the Veterans’ Committee HOF announcement on the MLB Network.  All of the announcers, without exception, acted like it was Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, and Satchel Paige finally getting the call.  Are the announcers told to keep it upbeat, and to keep any dissenting opinions of HOF unworthiness to the themselves?
Keith Law: State Television.

Yinka Double Dare: Less perturbed at getting rid of gas ranges now that there’s an alternative to the electric coils, which are horrid. Induction ranges do pretty well for changing your temp quickly more like gas, although you have to get compatible cookware.
Keith Law: Which is a big expense for most people.

Joe: A lot of HOF voters have tied themselves in knots making excuses not to vote for anyone they can loosely tie to PEDs in any way. Now the same guys are tying themselves in knots trying to explain why it’s not hypocritical to vote for David Ortiz on the first ballot. It’s almost like it was never really about PEDs, and was just about keeping out the guys they didn’t like personally.
Keith Law: No question. If you vote for Ortiz, and not A-Rod, you’ve dropped the curtain.

John: I learned from my aunt last night that there is an underworld of children being farmed for their adrenaline.  News you can use.
Keith Law: Do they do that in pizzeria basements?

CY: I know it’s early, but thoughts on Druw Jones or Elijah Green for the Rangers at #3?
Keith Law: There are a lot of other players in this draft class. Those are just the most famous ones.

Sedona: Do you think Mize becomes a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m still a fan, even though we haven’t seen what I thought we’d see from him when he was first drafted.

Nick: In reference to your Eric Davis response as to players you wanted to see without injury…is Buxton on that trajectory?
Keith Law: I certainly hope not.

Tom: Think with emerging SP’s bailey ober and Joey Ryan, that the twins can emerge to be competitive in 2022?
Keith Law: I don’t believe those guys are the answer.

Tom: Anything to Jon Singleton getting buff this offseason? Are you buying him?
Keith Law: Meh. He’d be a great story, but the odds are well against him.

Sedona: Trevor Story’s away stats are atrocious.  Especially last year.  How much will teams take this into consideration when offering what seams will be a long term deal
Keith Law: Most Rockies hitters have had large home/road splits that have closed at least partway when they left Denver.

Adam: Growing up did kids ever sing “ i fought the law and the law won”?
Keith Law: Not really. I’m the wrong age for that. Lot of “Breaking the Law,” though.

Dude: Hamilton’s faster than Gore?
Keith Law: I’ve timed both guys multiple times and Hamilton was consistently faster home to first.

Guest: Should the dodgers move will smith   off of catcher? If so, which position?
Keith Law: Why?
Keith Law: Like, did something happen with Smith that I missed?

Sedona: Do you have a favorite off the radar / non pedigree prospect?
Keith Law: I love seeing guys who weren’t high picks or big bonus guys come from nowhere to become real prospects. Someone mentioned Walter above. Matt Brash is another. Players do change in unexpected ways. That’s the fun way to be wrong.

Appa Yip Yip: Didn’t they drop the curtain when Bud Selig was elected to the hall?
Keith Law: Every Commissioner gets in, right? Except Fay Vincent, because he dared to go against the owners.

Will Smith: Cartaya is coming up and Smith’s bat plays at other positions.
Keith Law: Cartaya looks like a superstar in the making, but he’s not exactly MLB ready now.

Chris: do you agree with the Yanks’ plan of going stopgap til Peraza/Volpe are ready, given their massive long term commitments to Cole and Stanton aleady, w Judge possibly coming? (proviso obv they could do all of it)
Keith Law: It’s risky, but I understand it … at some point, you do have to decide THIS prospect is the one you’re going to let develop.

xxx(yyy): what is the story with Profar? was he just not able to recover after the injury? were folks too high on his floor?
Keith Law: I feel like it was the two lost seasons. That’s the most parsimonious explanation.

Matt: How did a guy like Mike Piaaza get drafted in the 63rd round? And as a favor to Tommy Lasorda more or less. Like, how do so many scouts miss that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss anything there. He was awful his first two years in the minors, too. He repeated high-A and suddenly had huge power, and that carried over as he moved up the ladder. He didn’t play at all as a freshman at U Miami, then went to junior college, so who knows how much he was even scouted as an amateur.

Brutus Beefcake: Apologies if I’ve missed it already, but do you plan to publish a column explaining your HOF votes?  I know in years past you’ve contemplated not voting at all but I take it from your mention of not voting for Schilling that you did vote this year.
Keith Law: I have voted every year, and I will absolutely reveal my ballot. The Athletic just wants us all to reveal ours at once, I think next week?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Nate Pearson the Jays closer for the next five years (or until his arm explodes)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t give up on him starting yet. I understand the reason for the question, but consigning him to a 70 inning a year role really cuts off a lot of upside.

xxx(yyy): ballpark, how often do NPs actually make the major leagues? 1% of the time? 3%? 5%? less than 1%?
Keith Law: I would bet under 1%. One in a hundred sounds aggressive. If you’re calling 1 in every 50 future big leaguers a non-prospect, you need to adjust your bar.

Henry: I’ve always found Gary Sheffield to be an interesting HOF candidate, but his defense was beyond atrocious.
Keith Law: It was, but if he were a DH, he would have probably sailed into the Hall – or at least gotten in sooner. His WAR numbers would have been much stronger and enough voters lean on that now that I think it’s worked against him.

Joe: There’s one anti-vax meme I’ve seen that says something along the lines of “If the vaccine is free to keep the nation healthy, then why aren’t chemo and insulin free?” It’s a meme that just blows my mind that they think that’s an argument in their favor. The anti-vax voters are the ones who are electing Senators who refuse to address the cost of medicine.
Keith Law: That’s almost true, but there’s also a sizable chunk of anti-vaxxers on the far left too. Strange bedfellows etc., but not every anti-vaxxer is a Q-supporting nutjob. (they’re all nutjobs, though.)

Marani: Which is more irksome:  the HOF voter who doesn’t vote for Jeter, Seaver, Pedro, et al because “nobody deserves to go in on the first ballot”, or the guy who tosses a vote to Tim Salmon or Tony Phillips because they were super nice to reporters after the game was over?
Keith Law: The latter. Don’t care about unanimous votes. Mariano didn’t get a special plaque, did he?
Keith Law: But don’t cheapen the process by voting for a player who was nice. If that’s how unseriously you take it, don’t vote.

DEF: No question, just wishing you and yours a happy holiday.
Sedona: Glad to have you back for chat after a few weeks off.  Happy Holidays!!
Keith Law: Happy holidays to all of you as well. I’ll try to get back on a regular schedule with these as we approach prospect rankings – and then I’ll do several around the launch of the rankings too. Have a safe holiday, everyone. Thank you all for reading.