Starting at 1 pm ET. My 2021 Prospect of the Year column is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my ranking of the ten best out-of-print board games is up at Paste.
Keith Law: It’s that time of year again – I can taste the air. Klawchat.
Steve: Please rank eventual ceiling of Rays’ pitchers McClanahan, Baz, and Patino. Thanks.
Keith Law: One of those guys was top 5 on my midseason prospect ranking. He’s the clear answer. I also think McClanahan is limited to a five-and-dive starter – if he stays healthy – because he’s always going to have some trouble with right-handers.
Deke: I’ve noticed you appear to be fairly adamant about not ending a sentence with a preposition, sometimes (IMO) to the detriment of the sentence’s flow. It’s a rule that was taken from Latin and has no actual application in English — essentially a fake rule forced into a rule it doesn’t belong. I am basically 100% sure that you know this, so I’m curious — do you do it because you think the rule SHOULD apply, or just to avoid annoying pedants yelling at you and having to go through the conversation?
Keith Law: I write the way that sounds right in my head. Prepositions take objects, so a preposition should come before an object if possible. The terminal preposition just sounds wrong to me. The Latin thing is a myth though.
David: Do you have any thoughts on how Preller has kept this job so long? He’s certainly acquired considerable minor league talent, but the organization has shown a remarkably poor ability to assess talent at or near the major-league level during his tenure (Myers’ extension and the signing of Hosmer being perhaps the most egregious examples, but certainly not the only ones), and none of the managers he’s chosen have worked out very well. I can’t help thinking that it’s time for ownership to clean house and hire someone with a different approach (Jason McLeod?).
Keith Law: I wonder if Hosmer was him or ownership. It’s diametrically opposed to anything else he’s done as GM. As you said, they have acquired an absurd amount of talent, through all channels, and I don’t think one year of some horrible injury luck should outweigh that. The fire Preller camp is extremely reactionary.
Michael: Hi Keith – Any thoughts on the NL MVP race? I know Tatis and Soto have had great years, but watching Harper the last few weeks has been a revelation. I am shocked when opposing managers pitch to him he is so locked in. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: If I had a ballot – I don’t, of course, because the powers that be don’t want me to vote – I’d have Harper on top. Tatis is the best player in baseball, but he’s missed 25+ games, and that’s a factor in the MVP award.
Guest: Would love to see Sam Bachman get some work in the AZFL. He hasn’t pitched since Sept. 1st after COVID protocols in High-A, and then again after his promotion to AA. With only 14IP in pro ball would you send him to AZ or sit him down knowing he’s been throwing on and off since Feb.?
Keith Law: I’d love to see him, but since he had a shoulder scare in the spring, resting him is probably the better option. Start fresh next year with a single plan for the entire season.
Devon: What’s your outlook on William Contreras? I think he’s actually looked really good at the plate (given his age and big defensive responsibilities) but Braves fans have been frustrated by his defense. Do you think he just needs more reps behind the plate or is a move off the position necessary to keep the bat in the lineup?
Keith Law: I have never thought before that his defense was a problem – if you read my pre-season capsule on him, you can see I was pretty positive about it – and I also think judging a catcher in his first year in the majors is probably unfair.
Mike: Keith, I know we can’t scout the stat line, but it seems Mark Vientos had a great year. I read his defense is not great though. What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: He can hit, and the power is legit. I had him as a fringy defender before the season and it sounds like that’s about right … maybe even a tick worse. But they already have more first basemen than they can use, so I wouldn’t try to move him just yet.
Trevor: You’ve touted the Mets and their home grown talent, yet no playoff appearances amongst the group since 2016. Failure fall on the players, the front office, or other?
Keith Law: You kind of skipped over the part where they hired a completely unqualified person to be GM (when they could have hired Chaim Bloom) and let him trade away their top prospect for nowhere near enough in return.
Troy: What is the Tigers Ryan Kreidler ceiling?
Keith Law: I saw him this summer – I think he’s an extra guy.
Mac: Are you feeling better about Jarred Kelenic’s long term future?
Keith Law: Yes. I was never actually worried about him – the gap between the minors and the majors right now appears to be the biggest it’s ever been. A lot of good prospects are going to struggle right out of the chute.
Mike: Keith, you are named POBO of the Mets. What do you do with Stroman, Conforto & Syndergaard? Who do you sign/ offer QO?
Keith Law: I’d offer all three. Take the picks if they leave. And I’d have interest in bringing all three guys back, too – the first two on long-term deals, Thor maybe a make-good one since he’ll be working his way back into next year.
Tim: Should the winner of the NL West with the best record in baseball have the choice of who they want to play vs. mandating they play the wildcard winner in the Division Series? This year more than ever it would seem the Brewers are going to have the advantage of facing a much weaker team regardless of who wins the east and who wins the wildcard game.
Keith Law: Nah, the system is what it is. I have issues with the playoff structure but the #1 seed facing the second-weakest team rather than the weakest team isn’t one of them.
Mike: Klaw, I read some executives say Cohen’s tweets will scare some people away from the Mets. Do you believe this? Big market team/wealthy owner (still feels good to say that), why wouldn’t anyone want the job, especially for top $$$.
Keith Law: I think it’s complete bullshit. And so are these candidate lists that recycle the same white men who’ve had that job before. I saw one “list” that included a guy who clearly failed in previous stops as a GM. Why would the Mets do that? There are plenty of good candidates out there, some of whom haven’t had the opportunity yet, some of whom aren’t – gasp – the same white men who’ve already had that chance!
Billy: Will you be chatting every week again come this off-season? These are the highlight of the internet each week.
Keith Law: I appreciate that, but it’ll really depend on what else I have going on.
Trevor: Kevin Maitan was said to be the greatest international signee since Miguel Sano. What did the scouts miss about his profile?
Keith Law: I don’t believe I ever said that – he was hyped up at age 14 but he was already very physically developed for the age, and at 16/17 he made it clear that those evaluations were in error. He wasn’t that good of a hitter and his body had gone the wrong way.
John: Your thoughts on Austin Martin? Where does he help the Twins ? CF? Next year?
Keith Law: I’d refer you back to my writeup of the trade – I think that all holds true. We’ll see how he looks in March after the Twins have had a chance to work with him on his swing, and once he’s farther removed from the wrist injury/
John: Why do you folks think Trump is still presidential material? Amazing how much loyalty he attracts even with his craziness.
Keith Law: He exploits his adherents, still they love him.
Luca: Keibert Ruiz and Joe Ryan…yay or nay?
Keith Law: They’re both prospects, yes. Ruiz was on my top 50 (see above).
Friar Fan: Meulens, Alomar Jr, Alou, Boch? Have a prediction for a new manager in SD if Ting goes?
Keith Law: If Preller is picking, it’s more likely someone he knows from the Texas system. Those sound like names that reporters throw around.
Chris: If you had to pick one long term, Kelenic or Julio?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Middle of the diamond player.
Kevin: Is the complete game going away ? How would you run a pitching staff?
Keith Law: Oh it’s gone. CGs are oddities now.
Zac: When Chris Illitch took over, the public opinion is he was in to make money and he won’t spend money to win. Do Tigers fans have the right to be angry if he doesn’t sign one of the premium shortstops this off-season?
Keith Law: I hate that mindset – sign one of these players, or you suck.
Alex In Austin: I found Wingspan to be a bit too solo and lacking interaction. Is it just me?
Keith Law: It does lack much interaction. I don’t think that’s a flaw; it’s a matter of taste.
Scherzers_Blue_Eye: What do you make of Josiah Gray? Very up and down rookie year–a couple of really good starts, a couple of stinkers.
Keith Law: I think there’s a lot of learning how best to use the stuff he has there. He has the stuff to be a legit above-average starter. He has to use it more effectively – location, command, pitching plan.
CHOP: Indigo Diaz? What are the reports you have heard?
Keith Law: He’s a one-inning reliever. He could be very good in that role in the majors, but the attrition rate of pure relief prospects is really high.
Robert: Arte Moreno, worst owner in baseball? The sheer number of terrible stories coming out of Anaheim, from the Skaggs tragedy and lawsuit to the minor league treatment, that don’t even approach the problems within the lines is nothing short of embarrassing.
Keith Law: Don’t forget his open support of Trump!
Mac: Is the elimination of short season the only reason so many teams had so aggressive assignments this year?
Keith Law: It is *a* reason. I don’t think it’s the only one. I think it’s hurting the lowest tier of players, though.
Hunter: Thoughts on our current administrations performance. Afgan, border, covid, oil, Hunters laptop cover up, seem to not be going so well. Haven’t seen any criticism from you yet.
Keith Law: Your mistake was the “Hunters laptop cover up” part. You are actually looking for r/thedonald.
Bill: Thoughts on Mountcastle’s season?
Keith Law: Kind of what I expected. Not sure where they’re going to play him long term.
Ben: Hi, Keith. Heard on your podcast that you came to Taiwan to meet with two former players in Keng Buo Hsuen and Cheng Chi Hong,. As a scout, what are some of the biggest challenges when scouting players outside the U.S.?
Keith Law: I’m not sure I’m the best person to answer that, since I haven’t really covered the international market. I can say that the way Taiwanese amateur pitchers are used – throwing side sessions every day, at least back when we were there – is a pretty big problem if you’re trying to sign guys and keep them healthy.
Will E.: Was Alek Thomas under-scouted out of HS? Looks like him vs Kelenic is now debatable as the top bat in that HS class.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – I had him as a first-round talent, and he was at some major events like the NHSI. Everyone saw him.
Chris: In the 20’ish years you’ve been doing prospect lists, what is the most you’ve seen a player in a year(in person, video)? Perhaps maybe like 25IP and 25 PA for a few players every year?
Keith Law: When Pratto/Melendez were here two years ago I probably saw 40-50 PA from each. I stopped taking notes because they weren’t making adjustments and it was futile waiting for something to improve. It’s all the more remarkable that they’ve done what they’ve done this year.
ProjectBiscuit: Has any player or his parents/close ones ever thanked you for being the high guy on him as a prospect compared to other evaluators? For example, I think Trae Turner’s dad thanked Kiley in person for being higher on him than most evaluators going back to when he and Rodon were teammates.
Keith Law: Yes, quite a few times. It’s a nice feeling when that happens but I don’t know if it would be appropriate to disclose their names.
Ken: Hey Keith, I was the guy on twitter a week or two ago arguing that Dave Parker shouldnt be in the HOF due based on his career WAR and little value he provided after ’79 (other than ’85). Broadly, speaking when I discuss WAR with others in terms of HOF, assuming standard 15 year career (ages 23-38) I working working with a model of anything over 70 is auto placement, anything under 60 doesnt get you there, 60 is where the conversation begins and really 68 is the minimal sweet spot thus i call a 4.5 WAR season a HOF worthy season. Understanding everyone has a different floor for the HOF, am I off in my thinking using this as a loose but reasonable guideline for 15ish year careers?
Keith Law: I would say that’s a good starting point, but you always want to consider the context of a player’s career rather than just creating those hard cut-offs. I can say that, okay, Salvador Perez isn’t even getting to 40 WAR in his career, that’s not a HoFer, but I would take more serious looks at players starting in the 50s in WAR.
Rodney: Do you think it would’ve been in the best interests of player and team for the Reds to call Hunter Greene up to work out of the bullpen in September? Any thoughts on why they didn’t?
Keith Law: He missed a start with soreness in his AC joint in August. I’m assuming that’s why.
Famous Twitter User @Whitey_83: At this point, should any of the young outfielders in Atlanta’s system figure into the team’s 2022 plans?
Keith Law: I want to be open-minded on Pache, who did show a good bit more patience in AAA this year, but for a team that’s trying to win he might be a risk they can’t take in the short term. So probably not.
JL: No question, just wanted to plug for people to vote in their local elections this November. Here in Kansas, some anti-mask nuts are running for open seats and I imagine that’s happening throughout the rest of the country, too.
Keith Law: Amen.
Luis Robert: I am hitting .355/.393/.559 with a 160 wRC+ and .404 wOBA over my 262 PAs this season. That’s 3.1 fWAR in just 60 games. If I stay healthy next year, am I a top-5 player in baseball?
Keith Law: With a .424 BABIP. So, yes, if your true talent level is a .424 BABIP, you will be a top-5 player in baseball.
Bob: Seems like Adley Rutschman has gotten better at AAA. How long do we have to wait to see him in the big leagues in 2022?
Keith Law: I’d note that pretty much every prospect is hitting for more power in AAA than below. But Rutschman should be their Opening Day catcher.
David: Any update on the Rockies’ GM search? Local media seems resigned to Schmidt keeping the job, with the caveat that he might well be a good candidate in the end. But having no external candidates seems like a real problem, given how the last few years have gone.
Keith Law: I bet it’s Schmidt. I’d take him over the field at this point.
Chris: How concerned should the Yankees be with Jasson Dominguez strikeout numbers? Is it just his adjustment after a lost season, or something more?
Keith Law: Isn’t he 18? in full-season ball!
JJ: Speaking of MVP voting, isn’t MLB concerned about John Henry owning both the Boston Red Sox and the Boston Globe? Last season, Julian McWilliams of the Globe voted for two Red Sox on his ballot — including putting Alex Verdugo at 5th — while the team was hideous. Does MLB just not care that one employee was essentially voting for his coworkers?
Keith Law: The team being hideous is irrelevant. The conflicts of interest are rife – MLB.com writers can vote, because they’re eligible for BBWAA membership now (as they should be), but that means they’re now paid by the league.
Jeff: Where do you come down on the Kiermaier fiasco? I say he did nothing wrong.
Keith Law: I say he did. Sketchy.
HGarcia81: Hey Keith – Hope all is well with you and your family. Is your wife feeling better now?
Keith Law: Still dealing with a lot of residual fatigue, even a month after she was done with the main sickness from COVID-19. I can’t imagine how deluded you must be to think you’d rather risk getting that sick than get a safe, effective vaccine.
MS: Frank Schwindel and Pat Wisdom starting next year?
Keith Law: I would bet against that.
Aaron C.: How does Klaw “watch” baseball? (Not just “with my eyes” lol) Is it background noise while you’re cooking? Are you armed with a list of recent call ups and flipping channels to get another look at players you’ve scouted? Do you watch milb dot tv, instead? Just curious.
Keith Law: MILB.tv is too frustrating to watch … it’s such a poor substitute for being there. I watch more major league games if I’m home, just bouncing game to game to see interesting players.
ChrisP: Gore has made it back up to AA, but are you hearing any update on how his delivery has progressed from the complex?
Keith Law: You’ve probably seen the video – Longenhagen posted some. That’s the delivery now.
FWIW: FWIW, Stroman can’t be QOed
Keith Law: Ah yes, he took a QO last year. Thank you.
MS: When you go to these board game conventions, where do you stand on nerd level 1-5; 5 being super nerd
Keith Law: I mean, we’re all big nerds there, and happy to be so.
Keith Law: I feel pretty socially capable there, though. Like, no one is looking at me like I’m the biggest nerd in the (giant) room. I think.
Kevin w: Overall, have you been happy with this administration? I personally can quibble with a few things (lack of progress on voting rights being one), but overall been very pleased.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. I have no idea what this Haitian immigrant decision is about – it seems antithetical to anything the party should stand for, like it’s just a fear of riling up the people who are never voting blue anyway. They’re just not doing enough overall, given the control of the White House and both houses of Congress.
Aaron C.: Should I read anything into Nick Allen slugging .254 at AAA-Las Vegas (in a teeny sample) other than dude might be worn out from crisscrossing the globe to hit a little white ball in 2021?
Keith Law: Very small sample.
Jay: Red Sox vs. Yankees this weekend — if one of those teams misses the playoffs with a $200 million payroll, should their season be viewed as a failure?
Keith Law: Not a fan of that mindset either but it’s endemic. They’re in a really tough division – four teams contending, one of which went to the WS last year, two spending that kind of money, and Toronto a strong playoff team last year with a higher payroll than they’ve had in, what, 15 years? They literally can not all make the playoffs.
Bob: I truly appreciate you baseball coverage, but personally think your a Liberal nut case.
Keith Law: *you’re
Gabe: Spencer Howard. Too early to throw in the towel?
Keith Law: Let’s see him get healthy and get a regular role in Texas. The phillies jerked him around quite a bit, and his shoulder barked a few times this year and back in 2019.
Bill G: Keith, you were high on Detmers in your mid-season update. He struggled in his MLB games. Is this SSS, or did you see something that gave you cause for concern. Does the gap in MLB vs. minor leagues apply to pitchers as well? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think it applies to everybody.
Dungeon Master: Any idea if CJ Abrams, Corbin Carroll, or Royce Lewis are recovered enough to participate in AZ Fall League?
Keith Law: I don’t know, but I am assuming Lewis won’t be, given the injury. I’d be thrlled to see any of them.
Joe: You recommended a book by N. K. Jemisin to me a while ago. It’s still on my reading list but I picked up The City We Became by the same author and am really enjoying it. Thanks. And when you’re in San Diego if you haven’t already checked out Mysterious Galaxy I recommend it. Great book store that focuses on fantasy and sci-fi but does have other genres.
Keith Law: Excellent, thank you.
Mac: i.e. Alek Thomas “and he was at some major events like the NHSI. Everyone saw him.” He was bad at that event and many teams killed him. Yet another example of teams giving up on a northern hitter too soon.
Keith Law: I was there. He wasn’t bad at that event. And teams saw him after that too, since it was basically the start of his spring (and near the end of a lot of southern kids’ springs).
Mike: Also, Mets fans want Luis Rojas gone immediately after game 162 but I can’t help but see his resume as someone who is going to be a great manager elsewhere. I’m sure you know Rojas well from the minors, what are your thoughts on him going forward?
Keith Law: He should be on every team’s short list if he’s scapegoated in NY.
Rick: I have a friend from college who won’t stop texting me shit about “Hunter’s laptop” – he’s a doctor and he refuses to get the covid vaccine because of unknown long-term side effects. So, that guy is in good company.
Keith Law: It’s a disease.
Keith Law: Well, COVID-19, and Trumpism.
Matt: A national baseball reporter with an endless fixation on the Orioles rebuild tweeted today that, while the Dbacks are equally as bad, at least they tried and spent $80 million on Bumgarner. How do you feel about the perspective that even if you throw $80 million a way on an aging pitcher, it was worth just because you spent it?
Keith Law: I mean, sure, they did try, and that’s worth praising, but it also hasn’t worked out, and that’s worth acknowledging. I am not going to criticize the Orioles for choosing not to do that. They will have to spend on pitching at some point, but last winter wasn’t the right time and maybe this winter isn’t either.
Daniel: Any thoughts at all on Ryan Garko being hired as the Tigers director of player development? There’s basically no information about him since he retired from playing.
Keith Law: I’m a fan. He coached at Stanford for a year, had an important role with the Angels, very smart guy. Stanford should have hired him to be their head coach, to be honest.
Snoogans: Who are some early candidates for the top 10 songs of the year? Albums?
Keith Law: Little Simz’ Sometimes I Might Be Introvert is my top album of the year. Arlo Parks’ Collapsed in Sunbeams, Mdou Moctar’s Afrique Victime, Gojira’s Fortitude, and Kid Kapichi’s This Time Next Year are up there for me. Top songs besides some of the tracks on those records … Robert Plant/Alison Krauss’ “Can’t Let Go,” Jonah Nilsson’s “Diamond Ring,” Wolf Alice’s “Smile,” CHVRCHES’ “How Not to Drown,” Jungle’s “Truth,” Jorja Smith’s “Addicted,” Royal Blood’s “Typhoons,” and Griff’s “Black Hole” are all contenders.
Lido: Torey Luvollo got an extension yesterday. Good move or bad move?
Keith Law: I was surprised. People who cover that org tend to criticize his in-game management.
Jack: A bit confused by the Alek Thomas questions in this chat – does drafting a toolsy high school hitter in the second round and seeing them have significant prospect success a miss by the industry? Not exactly Albert Pujols here
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m not really sure either. If I had him ranked in the first round, then it’s not like the industry was unaware of him.
Keith Law: Meaning I take a lot of my cues from scouts/execs – not the other way around.
Guest: Would people in red states not benefit just as much from things like child tax credit and universal pre-K? Are there not households with two working parents? Single parents?! So frustrating.
Keith Law: One of the great tricks of dark money efforts has been convincing people that expensive government policies and programs that would help them directly are somehow bad ideas.
Keith Law: There are real arguments for and against those programs. I support universal pre-K, but I also know it’s going to be expensive, and hard to implement fairly across the country (look at public education from K-12 … don’t pretend kids in majority Black areas are getting the same caliber that kids in majority white areas are). We could have a real debate over the pros and cons. That can’t happen because one side just screams “socialism.”
Pat: 30 years ago today- Nevermind, Badmotorfinger, Blood Sugar Sex Magik,& Low End theory were released. that’s the album that killed hair metal, the best album from one of the biggest bands of the last 35 years, Soundgarden’s breakthrough & a seminal hip hop album. Helluva day!
Keith Law: I mean, I have a hard time putting RHCP in the same tier as the other three … but I’ll allow it.
Larry: Alek Thomas has really been raking this year. Is his ceiling 60 hit, 55 power in center? If so, that’s a legit star, no?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan, obviously, but I do not believe he’ll get to 55 power.
Kevin: Would Rickey Henderson be valued different as a prospect now than when he came up 40 years ago?
Keith Law: If anything he’d be valued more highly.
Daniel: Aaron Ashby: starter or reliever or something in between?
Keith Law: Reliever.
Matt: My brother is a huge Trump supporter. He has a son on disability that would qualify for SSDI. He refuses to get it because he doesn’t “want any help from the Government.” Even though his taxes pay for it and it’s provided.
Keith Law: I feel bad for his son.
JP: I’d add, the dark money efforts you cited convince people that government programs help “those kinds” of people, if you know what I mean
Keith Law: You know who pours a lot of cash into those dark-money efforts? The Kendricks – owners of the Diamondbacks. Read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money for more. Randi Kendrick’s name comes up a few times.
Pat D: Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk, or Ben Shapiro: who’s the worst of the worst?
Keith Law: Carlson. With the larger platform comes greater responsibility.
Bob: The racist narrative is getting old.
Keith Law: You know what’s really getting old? The racism.
Larry: Talk to me about expensive programs when the Government isn’t Trillions of dollars in debt
Keith Law: If you can explain the actual import of that debt to me, we can talk.
Keith Law: Also, slash the military budget.
Joe 2: Follow up on Robert, assuming his BABIP isn’t sustainable, what is the ceiling? 30/30 with HR upside and middle of the road OBP with continued near gold glove defense? Or is there potentially more?
Keith Law: That’s a ceiling. I’d bet on a lower OBP than that.
Matt: I mean we spent $8 Trillion on a BS war for 20 years. Conservatives never complain about that though.
Keith Law: No, and if you start to wonder why, just follow that money.
Pat: RE RHCP- There’s a reason I said “biggest” bands, not “best. 🙂 That said, I had a lot of good times in college listening to BSSM.
Keith Law: Fair point. And that album was huge while I was in college. I don’t think it’s aged as well as the others, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for all of the questions and for reading. Check out that Prospect of the Year post I linked above, and keep an eye out for my Gen Con wrapup today or tomorrow over at Paste. Stay safe and go get vaccinated!