Klawchat 5/21/21.

Check out my review of the board game Cryo, which John Tomase & I played and enjoyed, over at Paste.

Keith Law: And when you put it all together, there’s the model of a Klawchat.

John M: Do you have any Austin food recommendations?
Keith Law: Franklin BBQ, of course. I liked Backspace pizza last time I was there. Better Half is great for breakfast/Coffee. Micklethwait also good for BBQ. Here’s my last writeup from there.

RH: What non-racist team name would you most like to change?
Keith Law: Are we allowed to go all sports? The Utah Jazz is just ridiculous. Aside from the two derived from Native American culture, are there really any bad MLB team names? Some might be boring but none are bad.

AJ Preller: Is Ketel Marte or Bryan Reynolds a remote possibility in left field post deadline?
Keith Law: Why would either team rush to deal those guys? I’d expect the prospect cost to be significant.

Steve: Will you have a column up about scouting Mozzicato? What were your thoughts on him?  I went to his no hitter at Southington, couldn’t believe how hard he threw with that frame (looks like a frame he could add weight to)
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m just waiting to see another player or two so I can write them all up as one post. He’s good, second round over slot type. Legit CB.

The Bench: Is Jared Walsh doing things a 39th round draft pick shouldn’t be doing?
Keith Law: Yes, and no. Teams are also willing to take more risks with 39th rounders. Also, he’s destroying RHP but right now he’s just a platoon guy.
Keith Law: Any value from a 39th round pick is amazing, though. Score one for the area scout.

CD: Prep RHP get a bad rep. Why is this exactly? What specifically makes them riskier? Since they were the best youth pitchers are they more likely to be overused?
Keith Law: The data tell us their reputation is deserved. They flame out at a higher rate.

Brandon: If the Dbacks aren’t going to play Varsho everyday why is he up right now!?
Keith Law: That’s a reasonable question.

Jack: I’ve seen the White Sox toying around with Gavin Sheets in right field – any chance he could exist in an outfield with Andrew Vaughn or is that just asking too much of Billy Hamilton / Robert when he’s back?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Sheets in the outfield, but having seen him at first base I’d be surprised if he could be even a 45 defender in RF.

JMD: Aside from the obvious injury concern. How much are matt Allan and Pete crow Armstrong going to be impacted in your mind by going so long without playing competitively. These injuries couldn’t seemingly be timed worse. Will such a long layoff impact there ability to reach there peak or reach the majors?
Keith Law: More worried about PCA than Allan. Another lost year of at bats is more of a concern than a year of lost innings for a teenaged arm.

Mike: When do you plan to drop your first mock?
Keith Law: Next Thursday, 5/27.

Mike: Hi Keith – any rumblings on what the Red Sox might want to do at 4?
Keith Law: I think they’d prefer college (Rocker, Davis, Leiter) over HS.

Greg: Are the Giants for real? Can that starting pitching maintain?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’ll last, not at this level. I don’t think they have a top 3 offense and top 3 pitching staff in the league. That said, going .500 the rest of the way still puts them at 87-75, which could be a playoff record.

Aaron: Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. Early thoughts on Andrew Vaughn?
Keith Law: He’s looked a little overmatched, but not so much so that they should bench or demote him (not like, say, Ryan Mountcastle).

ralph: What do you think will happen if/when MLB bans the shift?
Keith Law: Joe Sheehan suggested players will sell out for pull power even more and K’s will go up. I’m still holding out hope that actual baseball people will fight this one … it’s the dumbest suggested rule change of all. It’s entirely reactionary.

TC: Do you have a timeline for when TLR will be blasted into space towards the sun? I don’t know how that locker room can continue to play for him.
Keith Law: Derek Van Riper asked me this on the podcast yesterday, which you can catch on Apple or Spotify. Short answer: I don’t think the owner is going to rush to fire his buddy.

Brian: Small sample size & high BABIP aside, what more does Owen Miller have to do to get some at bats with Cleveland and their anemic offense? He has hit at every level of the minors thus far. Also, what round do you see his brother Noah getting drafted this year? High enough to pass on Alabama?
Keith Law: He’s semi-blocked at the moment; I don’t think they’re rushing to bench Cesar Hernandez when he’s making more than most of his teammates combined, and Miller shouldn’t displace Rosario. But I would expect Miller to be up by midyear. Noah Miller is in my top 50 and I can’t imagine he goes to school.

Mike: What ever happened with Gregory Polanco? Why did he not turn into the star that people expected him to?
Keith Law: I think it’s injuries. He got pretty close in 2018, at age 26, but that has been his peak and maybe it always will be.

Les Deeny: Any early guesses on where Corey Seager lands in the offseason? My gut says it could ultimately be the Giants who pry him away from the Dodgers. Tell my gut it’s wrong.
Keith Law: I really have no idea on that. I just wait to see where they end up and write about it.

Derak: What is happening with Alek Manoah? Doesn’t seem like anyone could have predicted this breakout but maybe the Blue Jays did by jumping him up to AAA so fast. Has what he’s done this years changed your outlook on him? Is he showing the high quality pitches necessary to develop into a top 20 pitcher?
Keith Law: Had there been a full 2020 season, he would likely have started at high A and finished in AA, so starting this year in AAA isn’t that surprising if you think of this as where he would have been anyway – especially if the Jays felt like they saw enough progress from him at the alt site last year. I don’t think anything’s changed on him yet, though – the stuff is pretty close to the same as always (and I liked him a ton in college) so 3 starts shouldn’t change our minds.

Kevin: Would you be totally against a 1st half 2nd half winner baseball playoff format?
Keith Law: Yes. Like, “man the barricades” against it.

Gary: I expect the dodgers to trade for some bullpen help seeing as how they only have like 3 guys they trust at the moment. But could Josiah Gray spend some time in the pen?
Keith Law: I favor that kind of development path.

Jeffrey: Do you think Larnach stays up and will we see Adley this year?
Keith Law: When Kirilloff and Buxton return, that’s four outfielders for three spots. They could boot Sano and move someone to first, but if that’s not happening, one of the two rookies gets sent down.

Deej: Sat in the vaccinated section of a ballpark earlier this week. It felt incredibly weird to be sitting that close to other people. Have you been back in a crowd yet?
Keith Law: I’ve been to an airport, which was the weirdest and most uncomfortable part of the trip. Do most people just not know where their noses are?

Guest: Would a lower seam and deader baseballs result in a more interesting game?
Keith Law: Deader baseballs might. Not sure about the lower seams – that seems (no pun intended) like a recipe for unintended consequences.

Punk in Drublic: SSS not withstanding, any minor leaguers you are hearing about that you are viewing significantly different than you ranked them since there are actual games and players may have added velo, improved or added a pitch, or hitting approach?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little too soon for that.

Guest: Any hope for Logan Warmouth? He’s been a dud at every level and suddenly he’s got an .938 OPS in triple A. Or is this just a case of sample size?
Keith Law: And that’s why I think so.

ivy: Is there any hope of the Orioles being competitive in the next three years?
Keith Law: Barring a major budget increase, no, I don’t think their minor league talent is close enough for that.

Tony LaRussa: You better be using a typewriter and not a laptop or I’m fining your ass $100.
Keith Law: And you’re going to call me out to the media, too.

Kevin: What kind of expectations do you still have for Kyle Wright? Maddening inconsistency and already 25
Keith Law: I can’t figure him out. His stuff is good enough, yet he gets hit way harder than he should, especially his fastball. There’s no obvious reason why he should be performing this poorly.

JR: I know you’re not a football guy and like me I’m sure you’re happy the Tebow clown show is gone from baseball but now he’s resurfaced in the nfl. Taking a roster spot from someone more deserving in the name of selling tickets and merchandise.
Keith Law: I saw some more defenders come out of the woodwork when that news broke. He may really believe what he says he does, but I find it hard to reconcile that with the obvious selfishness of his professional sports careers.

David: Hi Keith,
Do you think Jaden Hill or Gunnar Hogland will be available when the 2nd round starts? I’m wondering if either would be a worthy gamble for the Pirates.
Keith Law: I would guess not.

Joe: Any Orioles minor leaguers you have gotten good reports on so far?
Keith Law: Yep, and I wrote about it here.

Jordan: I know there are at least a few MLB scouting departments that are highly skeptical of taking a prep arm in the first round, but should someone like Jackson Jobe be an exception to that thinking with the kind of stuff he possesses at 18-years-old?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – I’d argue that’s the sort of base-rate neglect bias that teams should be trying to avoid, the “this guy is DIFFERENT” mentality. Unless you know some tangible reason why Jobe  is more likely to stay healthy than all the other athletic hard-throwing high school pitchers who’ve gone in the first round and failed, you should be very wary of taking him in the top half of the first. And that has nothing to do with Jobe specifically. High school pitchers fail more often, period.

John Mozeliak: Is this .250/.300/.500 version of Tyler O’Neill sustainable and can he be a solid regular outfielder moving forward?
Keith Law: I really have little to no interest in corner players with that profile. They’re too easy to find or create in this offensive environment.
Keith Law: Oh, also, I’m not sure how any hitter can last with plate discipline like his. 35 K and 3 BB? In the last 20 years only one MLB hitter has qualified for the batting title with a K:BB ratio of 11 or higher, and that’s Tim Anderson, who has the benefit of being a shortstop.

Aaron C.: Who, in your opinion, is the most infamous prep draftee who should’ve took the money?
Keith Law: Oh that’s easily Matt Harrington. But I could offer others – Karsten Whitson, who reneged on TWO deals, came up in a chat with a scout recently because Whitson is coaching now. Plus all the kids who take themselves out of the draft entirely because their college coaches conned them into doing so – how many of them have gotten paid? Chris Harvey did it to matriculate early at Vanderbilt, got 217 PA total the whole time he was there, and wasn’t even drafted. We’ll see how it works out for Mike Vasil, who could have had $2 million easy in 2018, this July.

Michael: If you had to give a player a 20 rating for a skill, which would be the one that wouldn’t stop them from being an impact player?
Keith Law: Plenty of 20 runners have been superstars.

JR: Are you still wearing a mask indoors even if the business doesn’t require for those that have been vaccinated (per recent cdc guidance)? I thought I would for a while but am already finding myself ditching it at places that don’t require (and yes I’ve been vaccinated)
Keith Law: I went to Trader Joes today and still wore my mask, even though I’m two weeks past my second shot. I’m not wearing it outdoors unless required, or if I were too close to other people, although the latter hasn’t happened yet.

J: I know it is early and SSS but Pedro Leon’s start is… not great, Roberto.  Anything gleaned or heard?
Keith Law: First four games: 11 K in 17 PA. Since then: 9 K in 36 PA. Does it mean anything? Probably not. But the problem with these tiny samples so far is that they can be skewed too easily by what amounts to one bad series. He has not been good in any sense of the word, though.

Dr. Bob: Dylan Carlson is showing why everyone was so high on him. I got to watch him several times here in Springfield, MO. The ball just came off his bat differently than the other players and he was so much faster than everyone else.
Keith Law: He’s athletic and patient and has great instincts on both sides of the ball. Great, great job by the Cardinals’ scouting and development staffs there.

Joe: Have you heard any reports on what is happening with Sean Burke.  Moved back to Sunday with really short outings.  Just managing innings with basically two years off?
Keith Law: Stuff has been way down. He was on my top 50 last month but I took him completely off my Big Board (top 100) last week.

Sedona: Will Luzardo reach his ceiling of front of rotation arm?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s really his ceiling – I think he’s a #2 if he stays healthy. That’s still very good, of course, but if he ends up a top 15 pitcher in baseball that would beat my best expectations for him.

Jeffrey: Now that Madrigal has established himself as a home run threat, should the White Sox move him to clean up?
Keith Law: Don’t give Tony any ideas.

J: So the Athletic’s article about pitchers and foreign substances was intriguing, and opened up a weird line of thinking. Will a pitcher recently called up from the minors, whether its a Lynch or a Gilbert, or a less-heralded guy like Peacock or Benjamin, having a learning curve about ‘doctoring’ the baseball? IOW, is it a competitive disadvantage for rookies?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting point I hadn’t considered. Are they also using similar gunk in the minors? Why not? But if MLB wants to boost offense, enforcing their own damn rules on doctoring the baseball would be a great place to start. Otherwise, I’m busting out my Microplane grater and asking the Phillies for a tryout.

Matt: If Antifa is responsible for the Insurrection, why doesn’t the GOP want to investigate what happened./s
Keith Law: We all know the answer.
Keith Law: Just from a pragmatic perspective, is the GOP’s continued playing towards its base, away from the center, really the right strategy? Doesn’t it reduce your ability to win a lot of close elections? Hotelling’s law says that in a two-party system you’d expect the two parties to move towards the center so they could each capture about half the market. Instead, the Democrats are drifting left, but the Republicans are lurching to the right.

Aaron C.: Crack Shack or Juniper & Ivy? Got some friends from the east coast coming into town over Memorial Day weekend. (We’re all 2x vaxxed!)
Keith Law: Depends on what you want. Crack Shack is fast and casual and good for a loud meal outside. J&I is incredible but it’s fine dining, still good for a social meal but you’re inside and it’s upscale.

Ciscoskid: would a prep RHP profile of avg FB plus CB, avg CHG with body projection with maturity a safer profile than a plus FB avg CB/CG/SL
Keith Law: That’s Braxton Garrett, although he was a LHP, and he blew out too. We really don’t know.

Jason S: Pavin Smith hits the ball hard, but he’s not hitting hrs. Is there a lot more power potential with him with a Duran swing adjustment?
Keith Law: The word from the Dbacks last fall/winter was that he had made an adjustment to drive the ball more. Either he didn’t hold it, or he’s not using it in games, just in scrimmages etc.

Dan: I have kids who are too young to get vaccinated. The end of masking means that I’m reluctant to take them to e.g. the grocery store. The positivity rate here is about 0.5%. Am I being stupid?
Keith Law: No, you’re being cautious. The good news is that their chances of getting sick if they get the virus are lower than their odds would be if they were 12 or older. But they can still catch it and transmit it.

Murph: Assuage my fears that the Orioles aren’t going to do something dumb at #5 and will take one of the two remaining of Rocker, Davis, Leiter, Mayer, Lawler and House.
Keith Law: I don’t know that House belongs in that tier. I mean, he definitely doesn’t. He’s 11 on my Big Board. But yes, I have heard them on him.

Kevin: I’m an no better, so this is not a dig, but I bought one of the signed copies of The Inside Game, and if you would have showed me the signature separately I wouldn’t have guessed it said Keith Law. Looking forward to reading next month on vacation!
Keith Law: For better or worse, that’s been my signature for 30+ years.

KDC: Should Seattle trade Haniger?
Keith Law: Yes.

Gabe: Mount Rushmore of games? (For me: Ticket to Ride, Pandemic though I might never wanna play again, Carcassonne…tie between Dominion and Splendor for that #4 spot though maybe Winspan’ll take it if I can ever carve out time to play it)
Keith Law: 7 Wonders would be on mine. I don’t mean to dodge the question, but it depends on whether this is just my four favorite games, or four games that I think stand as giants in the board game space for their influence or impact. Catan doesn’t make the first quartet, but it has to be #1 in the second quartet.

Jesse B: The Corbin Carroll injury sucks. He was probably going to move up to AA soon. How does this change his timeline? Still play Fall ball and start next season in AA ideally?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’ll be ready for the Fall League (if there will be a Fall League, even) but I hope he can. I assume he’d then start in AA.

Todd Boss: The Nat’s low-A team is 0-15, with a -115 run differential.  Can they ever win a game?  🙂
Keith Law: Oh my god. I thought you were joking. They’re really 0-15 with 39 runs scored and 154 runs allowed. They’re slugging .213 and the team ERA is 8.09.

Alex: With Witt Jr. struggling at the start and the Royals plummeting out of the race, is there any chance we see him this year?
Keith Law: I would assume not, but maybe he turns it around and works his way up in September. Remember all the calls for him to make the major-league team back in March? Yeah. Maybe spring training stats just don’t mean anything.

Tim: Read another writer say Henry Davis may not stick behind the plate and could be a possible 3b.  Do you see him sticking at C?
Keith Law: Yes. Without a doubt.

Jason: Do you think the Rs would actually splinter and a new actual conservative party could emerge, or is it more likely that the dam breaks against Trump?
Keith Law: I’m no expert, not even knowledgeable about these things, but it sure looks like the party is heading right for the cliff with two feet firmly pressed on the accelerator.

Tom: It was interesting to hear you appear on a conservative (blanking on his name)’s sports podcast last month to talk draft etc. Was there any hesitation on that one (or conservative podcasts in general)?
Keith Law: I declined to appear on a show where the host was spreading Big Lie and COVID denialist stuff on Twitter. That’s not “conservative,” though, that’s batshit.

Sam: Are you going to be live during the draft again this year?
Keith Law: Man, I hope so. Do you know something about my health that I don’t?

Bru: Top athlete from another sport that you’d love to have seen play baseball? Wilt for me.
Keith Law: Wilt was 7’1″, too tall for baseball unfortunately. How about Federer? What if he grew up in California playing baseball?
Keith Law: That’s a good place to end this week. Thank you all for reading & for your questions. My first mock draft for 2021 will be up next week at The Athletic, and just a reminder that my book, The Inside Game, is now out in paperback and available for your Father’s Day purchasing needs. Thanks again!