Klawchat 3/11/21.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my list of prospects I can’t wait to see live in 2021, with one or two names for all 30 MLB teams.

Keith Law: No one gets hurt if they don’t act funny. Klawchat.

Dave: Got your tickets for the opening day superspreader event in Arlington?
Keith Law: I have to say I’m not keen to go to Texas at all unless I’m fully vaccinated. It’s a problem with multiple first rounders in the state.

Max G: Hey Keith, hope your first ski trip was both fun and painless!
Keith Law: It was actually my second ski trip, but my first in 31 years – so long that Brodie, the ski resort where I went in 1990, has been closed for over a decade. My wife is a much more avid skier and skied circles around me, but I didn’t get hurt and eventually finished on some short blue runs. Still working on stopping, though.

Eddie: How do you view the depth of hitting in this upcoming draft? It seems to lack offensive star power from the outside
Keith Law: I think that’s accurate. There could be a corner bat or two who emerge as late first round types like Aaron Sabato last year, where they really have to hit given their positional limitations, but I’m not confident in any of those names yet.

Isaac: On pure upside, is it Leiter and Lawler in the draft? Is Lawler a 1.1 upside type of player? Haven’t had a chance to see much about him. Thanks
Keith Law: I think most scouts would put Rocker and Hill in there too. And if you really mean pure upside, there are guys like James Wood who have enormous ceilings but also could fail to get out of A-ball because their hit tools might not be there.

Isaac: I’ve read that Tyler soderstrom looked good in the fall at instructs, was there anything in particular that you know of that stood out? Would you keep him behind the plate?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he hit extremely well and looked like he had very little chance to remain behind the plate. I’d probably give him a year there first before making a decision – usually I say to leave players at their toughest positions as long as you can, but if he’s not going to catch OR you just think his bat is so advanced that catching is going to slow his development, just move him to third base.

Tyler: In cleveland we have been hearing about valera’s swing for a few years but haven’t been able to see it in person yet. Does he have high upside offensive potential or his it more of hometown wishing? Or Planez for that matter. We seem to not be able to groom OF bats like we do other positions
Keith Law: Valera does have high upside as a hitter and was on my top 100 because of that. Alexfri Planez is much less of a known commodity because he’s barely played – I believe he broke a hamate bone after just a handful of games in 2019, so he’s barely been scouted. That injury should be completely healed, with strength returned, by now.

Tim (Columbus): Who is the better offensive player between Rutchsman and Torkleson?
Keith Law: I think Torkelson. But it’s not an enormous difference.

Jerry: Do you prefer an assigned closer, or is it better in your opinion to have everyone available when needed, not so much time specific?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s this black or white. I don’t think an assigned closer is necessary or optimal, especially since it would often require a pitcher to work too often on little to no rest. I don’t want my best reliever limited to one inning, and I don’t want him throwing three days in a row or four times in five days. However, knowing who you’re going to use in what situation is helpful for a manager beforehand. You don’t want him making too many battlefield decisions – some things you can plan before the games, so you do so, and then when the unexpected happens then you make those spur of the moment decisions.

Paul: If the Mets sign Lindor long term would Mauricio have enough bat to justify a move to 3rd?
Keith Law: I believe he will, although he’s not there yet, and it’s quite likely that Mauricio will be the better defender than Lindor by the time he reaches the majors (when Lindor will probably be 29 or 30).

Steven: Who has more star potential: Austin Hendrick or Luis Matos?
Keith Law: Hendrick might have more star potential but Matos is more likely to become a star.

Mindful: In a perfect world scenario where a player hits every aspect of their potential, who would be the best player in this upcoming draft? Is it Leiter, is that why you have him at 1, or is he more of a combination of potential and most likely to fulfill it? I suppose I always view a HS SS/CF as that “most potential” type.  Thanks for your time
Keith Law: Leiter has the ceiling/floor combination teams usually want at 1-1 now. I don’t think he’s the only or obvious choice at 1, and he may very well end up at 2 or lower in future rankings. I will say that last weekend, according to a scout I know who saw Vandy, Rocker was the better of the two, with a plus-plus slider he didn’t have the first two weekends, while Leiter’s breaking ball was closer to average. So it’s going to fluctuate.

addoeh: Who wins an Elmo-off, you or Passan?
Keith Law: I will put my Elmo and Cookie Monster impressions up against anybody.

Ben (MN): I recently participated in a virtual cocktail class to support a local bar. We made daiquiries (which I didn’t know are supposed to be non-blended) and the bartender talked all about the different types of rum. I didn’t realize there were such differences between Cuban, Jamaican, French, etc. I know you’re a rum fan, but do you have a favorite style of rum or any favorite rum-based cocktails? The bartender recommended Plantation 3 Stars as a good “workhorse” rum for newbies.
Keith Law: Plantation 3 stars is a blended white rum, which I generally avoid because it has less of the caramel notes I appreciate in rum. For mixing, I like anything aged in the 2-8 year range. Appleton has some excellent, inexpensive rums in that category, as does El Brugal. For sipping, I’d go with at least 10 years of aging. They mellow out substantially past that point. Unaged rum tastes too much like medicine.

Guest: In your write up of the top draft prospects, do you believe the top few are relatively close together or is Leiter (and maybe others) a cut above. I ask because I’m curious if the Pirates will try for an underslot deal if there is a relatively similar group at the top to have money to use elsewhere in the draft. Thanks!
Keith Law: I might do that, if they’re taking one of those top four guys – or someone else who emerges as a worthy 1-1 candidate. What you don’t want to see is them reaching down for someone who isn’t 1-1 good, like the Phillies did with Moniak in 2016, just to go over-slot with later picks.

RebWiseau: Sometimes there is a gap between how fans of a team view a particular prospect and how prospect evaluators view the same player (for example, the Red Sox fan community is much higher on Jarren Duran than you and your colleagues). Have you noticed any sort of profile for players like this where the fans are more excited than the industry about the future of the player?
Keith Law: Yes, they tend to be local media favorites. Local reporters write about these players, especially if they’re getting good info from player development, but fans don’t run that through the filter where every team likes their own players more than the industry does. Sometimes that player turns out to be every bit as good as the team says – Paul Goldschmidt comes to mind. Usually they don’t.
Keith Law: and I like Duran, BTW.

davealden53: Dee Strange-Gordon is making a case to be the Reds’ shortstop.  (Not a difficult case to make given that Kyle Farmer is the incumbent.)  Can Strange-Gordon regain value or is his bat gone for good?
Keith Law: I’d be more surprised if he can play shortstop. He was never great there in the first place and he’s how many years gone?

Steve Guitar: Intermediate guitarist getting back into it. Have you suggestions for both acoustic, acoustic-electric, and electric  Mitchell gear and any guitar pedals?  I remember you had a Mitchell acoustic no cutaway, they seem to make great valued instruments.  Thx for your help, I’d like to get back to playing regularly, (and getting my second vaccine today, f*ck yeah!)
Keith Law: I wish I could help but I own very little gear … I love playing but have never felt like I could justify spending much money on it.

Rich: Will you be doing a breakout candidates column this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll run this week. I do that column every year, and predictions too.

davealden53: I know that you don’t consider players like Ha-seong Kim in your prospect rankings, but do you have any insights about how he will adjust to Major League pitching?
Keith Law: I heard quite a bit of skepticism about his ability to make enough contact to be a regular here when talking to scouts who saw him live or evaluated him on video. I’ve never seen him in person.

Chip: Klaw (kaw!, kaw!), do you think Rutschman can hit in MLB this year?
Keith Law: It would depend on your standard. Hit enough to be an average regular? Yeah, I’ll buy that. Hit enough to be a star in 2021? Seems optimistic.

Ben (MN): In this era, I don’t understand how teams can have an “edge” or be so much better than other teams in certain areas, other than in short stints. For instance, the Athletic had an article this week about whether some teams are better at increasing velocity than others. It now seems commonplace for teams to target staff from these smart organizations, and it would follow that those staff bring knowledge of that “edge” with them. When teams do find an edge, do they usually have some kind of internal strategy to keep that edge as long as possible?  Do teams just assume that edge is temporary and look for the next competitive advantage?
Keith Law: The last sentence is probably the most accurate but if teams really wanted to retain some of those edges for longer, they’d pay their staff more, rather than shedding staff as so many teams did last year under cover of the pandemic.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! I have not heard much on Yadier Alvarez since the Dodgers DFA’d him last spring. Is he still with the club or have a future in the majors?
Keith Law: I may be way out of date but I thought he’d walked away. He has – had? – a ridiculously good arm, though.

Noah: Getting my second dose of the vaccine on Monday!  How do we convince the 30% or so anti-vax people to get it?  Herd immunity is usually cited as being achieved at around 90%.  You’re good with the numbers and facts and whatnot.  If only 70% get vaccinated, will those that are vaccinated be safe?
Keith Law: If you’re vaccinated, you’ll be safe from severe illness leading to hospitalization and possibly death. That’s a good outcome, but we aren’t likely to reach enough people without mandates (school & workplace) to get rid of the virus as a regular feature of life. You can be vaccinated and still get a mild case. Also, it’s not that 30% of the population is anti-vaccine; maybe 2-3% are truly anti-vaxxers, but the population as a whole has been fed so much disinformation, with Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube particularly culpable for letting it fester on their services, that people who get all their other shots (or get them for their kids) are now needlessly hesitant over this one.

Chip: Is Kenyon Yovan’s bat impressive enough to make him a prospect at DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – enough to be drafted, yes, but not enough to be, say, a top two rounds prospect.

Gums: Taillon seems to be the latest to switch to a shorter arm swing, a la Shane Bieber. Do you believe this lessens the injury risk for pitchers, and does it bode well for Leiter’s future as he has a similar arm path?
Keith Law: I don’t know about injury risk, but it has worked for many pitchers who had trouble repeating longer arm strokes, leading to worse command.

Adam D.: Do you believe the narrative that we have reached a “golden era” for prospects with more potentially high-end, young players in the minors than ever before? Or do you feel like the increased focus on prospects in general have just made a lot more of them known to fans in general, thus making it seem like there are more GUYS out there?
Keith Law: I think prospects are coming into pro ball bigger and stronger than they have at any point in history. That’s probably a big reason.

Phil in the UK: True or False: Counting sacrifice flies against a hitter’s on-base percentage is illogical, and the rule should be changed.
Keith Law: False. It’s completely logical. A sac fly results in an out. It should count as an at bat too.

Arty: Derrick Goold ran an article about how Delvin Perez committed himself to adding muscle and he’s supposed put on 20 pounds since 2019. I was a bit surprised he was invited to major league camp, but apparently reports on his progress are positive. From what you’ve seen of him, would getting stronger and adding weight help put him back into true prospect consideration?
Keith Law: He also has to hit. Yes, he’s had trouble with impact because he’s so small, but really he has to hit for us to have any discussion of his prospect status. Other than his draft spring, which ended with a positive test for a PED, he has never really hit well enough to project as an everyday player.

Noah: If the Mets don’t sign Lindor to an extension ASAP, can we stop pretending like Steve Cohen has done anything fundamentally good or different than the Wilpons?  In fact, he might be actively worse.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that assessment.

John: Will voting rights actually be preserved prior to 2022?
Keith Law: God I hope so. It’s going to take some actual courage on the part of some Senate Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two.

Ben: Where would the top three arms in this year’s class (Leiter, Rocker, & Hill) rank among the last few pitching classes? Is this trio stronger than some of the last classes of top college arms?
Keith Law: I think they are – they’re at least on par with recent years. Likely better than 2020, definitely better than 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016.

ChrisP: Is Braves’ Michael Harris a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More potential than GUY right now. Has to go out and hit. If he does that, he’s a GUY because of his other tools.

Sean M.: Also, just bought Smart Baseball. Great stuff so far- was fun remembering that twelve months I wondered if Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurillia were studs.
Keith Law: Thank you. Alfonzo was a guy I wanted to be better – seemed like he was capable of so much more and then you looked at some slightly advanced stats and realized he just didn’t produce.

Michael: Went down a rabbit hole of a GOP friend’s FB page and she’s trying to tell people the vaccine is dangerous, posting “articles” that link to supposed deaths after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine. Lots of people agreeing with her. Aside from deleting my FB account, do you have any advice for dealing with these types of people?
Keith Law: I would suggest at least an attempt to reason with her, for her own good and the good of your community, but with the expectation that it’ll go nowhere.

Jason: Does the addition of JBJ make the Brewers a slight favorite in the NL Central? I’m still expecting a tight 3 team race.
Keith Law: It helps them, certainly – good to see someone else trying to improve besides the Cardinals. I’d like to see the Brewers flip Garcia for some pitching.

Alan & Lou – Detroit: Give me some good news on the Tigers as a Detroit sports fan. Any chance they don’t finish in last like the Wings, Pistons, and Lions?
Keith Law: They’re very likely to finish last, but you should get a lot of Mize, Manning, Skubal this year, and that’s worth the price of admission.

Shane Bieber: Is skill or durability a bigger roadblock for Triston McKenzie becoming an ace?
Keith Law: Durability.

Concerned Fan: Keith, Yoan Moncada was visibly in pain last season as he played through complications from his COVID-19 experience. Now, he claims that he feels healthy and strong. But how can we be sure that he is not a victim of long-lasting COVID respiratory issues that will prevent him from being a high-level athlete ever again?
Keith Law: We can’t, can we? I didn’t realize he was struggling to that extent but he can’t be the only one.

Andrew Vaughn: Given that Andrew Vaughn is slated to be the White Sox full-time DH this year, how do you think he’ll adjust to MLB pitching? Love him as a prospect but worried that he’ll be overmatched right away.
Keith Law: My one worry would be that he might be too passive early on, and have to adjust that. I don’t think he’s just up there to walk, but that’s a big leap in ball/strike distinctions (and thus in required recognition) from college and a brief stint in A-ball to the majors with a year off in the middle.

Ben: If you had to pick one: Grierson or Leitch?
Keith Law: I’ll never tell.

Tom: Keith – have you ever read Robert Caro’s books on Robert Moses or LBJ? If so, would you recommend them?
Keith Law: I haven’t, because they’re very, very long.

Guest: Where do the Yankees start their top catching prospects in the minors? Breaux and Siegler HiA, Wells in LowA and Gomez back to GCL?
Keith Law: Seigler low A, Wells high A for me. Breaux has been very bad on defense in the majors.

Matt: Should the Jays just start the season with Austin Martin at 3B?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: I know you dont like player comps. But how unfair are the Durran to Grady Sizemore comps?
Keith Law: Yikes. Wasn’t Sizemore a three-sport athlete in HS?
Keith Law: like, Duran’s a good prospect, but Sizemore was at another level in athleticism. Just couldn’t stay healthy.

Nate: Your thoughts on Cavan Biggio are well known at this point, but offense aside, I can’t be the only one thinking the Jays are crazy for trying to have him play significant innings at 3rd right? Not a scout but I just don’t think he has the arm strength or quickness to play there consistently.
Keith Law: I agree. He was more passable at second.

Jared: So Cleveland is just moving forward with Tito/Antonetti huh…
Keith Law: While I assume people in the organization knew more about Callaway than they’re letting on, we really don’t have good evidence on that yet. I’d like to see a real MLB investigation and then have consequences based on that. Right now we mostly have assumptions and the occasional rumor. I’m sure someone knew. I’d just like to be sure the right people are called to account.

Jim: Hi Keith. More likely to be a true #1 — Ian Anderson or Max Fried?
Keith Law: I lean Fried because he has the better arsenal overall.

Bill: The word is that Gavin Lux has “quieted” his swing and no longer has the throwing yips. Does he seize 2B (or SS if Seager leaves) for the foreseeable future?
Keith Law: Hope so. Was always a fan, still am.

Nate: Would you consider yourself a casual fan of college baseball outside of work? I like it but the lack of pitching depth for the most part can make it hard to watch at times, especially midweek games.
Keith Law: No, because of the tin bats, excessive bunting, and too-frequent late-game pitching changes.

Michael: I get that we all do things for our spouses, #solidarity, but do you “like” football or Pfish?
Keith Law: She reads these chats so I’d better be careful … I would say I really appreciate Phish because they’re such skilled musicians. At the two concerts we attended in 2019, I could just stand there and watch Trey’s fretwork for an entire solo and get lost in it. I wish I could move around the fretboard that easily but I could at least pick out patterns and try to infer where his mind was going. Football is just a fun thing to get angry about and an excuse to chill on the couch, but it’s nowhere near as serious a matter as rugby.

Ben: Akil Baddoo is getting a lot of buzz this spring from Tigers twitter. What should Tigers fans realistically expect for Baddoo? Would you cut Jacoby Jones to keep Baddoo on the squad?
Keith Law: I like Baddoo quite a bit, and hope he’s healthy now and can stick. Never bought JaCoby’s bat, and he’s about to turn 29 with no real track record of consistent production. I think the highest I ever rated him was out of high school, when he was all tools and athleticism, but he didn’t progress at LSU or in multiple stops so far in pro ball.

Mason: What would you do with Varsho this year? Think he’ll get the consistent playing time to get going this year?
Keith Law: Move him around the field but make sure he’s playing close to every day.

Joe Maddon: What do you think of the Angels Chris Rodriquez? Will he make the opening day roster? Do you see him long term as a starter or a reliever?
Keith Law: Absolutely should not make the OD roster. He’s barely pitched in three years and needs to be managed carefully this year, not according to the whims and needs of the major-league club.

ssimo02: Enjoyed your interview with Triston McKenzie. I respect that you won’t use Cleveland’s team’s nickname in your articles. Why did you use it to tag the team in your Tweet promoting the interview?
Keith Law: That’s their twitter handle. I can’t change that.

J. Alfaro: Who are the Top 3 catchers in the MLB draft in your mind, and need I concern myself with them?
Keith Law: Del Castillo, Davis, and Ford. We’ll see if Mack joins them when his season starts. The first three are all going in the first round.

Nate: As a Utah resident it’s cool to see Seth Corry getting some love. When’s the last time a legit prospect came out of Utah in any capacity? Do we have to go all the way back to CJ Cron?
Keith Law: Yep, it’s Cron, and he’s an Arizona kid who went to the University of Utah. There have only been two players drafted and signed out of Utah high schools to reach 10 career WAR: Bruce Hurst and Glenn Hubbard, 1976 and 1975 drafts respectively. Next is John Buck at 5.8 WAR.

Andrew: Thinking about Carlos Correa – are you aware of any evidence that guys who are injured frequently at a young age are more likely to continue to miss a lot of games throughout their careers? Correa has missed about 1/3 of his regular season games since 2017 while in his early 20s. I’d love for the Astros to extend him, but how do you bake this into a valuation of him? Basically, is “injury prone” a real thing?
Keith Law: So, my understanding is that, yes, this is true, the best predictor of whether a guy will get injured is whether he has gotten injured. I can not, however, point you to a study of any sort to demonstrate this.

Guest: Hi Keith. I also have anxiety and started taking metamucil when I read that you take it for digestive issues. How many pills do you take per day?
Keith Law: I take five, the recommended dose, every day before lunch.

Pat D: I don’t know why, but I don’t think I’m as excited as I should be for this upcoming season.  I’m not sure if it’s because I think the Yankees half-assed it in the offseason or because of my own health/work/personal issues or because things still don’t feel “normal.”  Anyone else feel this way?
Keith Law: I feel some of this, certainly … it doesn’t feel quite real to me, and my enthusiasm for going to see actual games is tempered by news like teams opening their gates way too soon or to too many fans. Maybe that will dissipate as soon as I get myself to a game.

Jason: Are your ESPN-era chats gone forever?
Keith Law: I don’t think they are all gone but the first few years were wiped out in the site redesign.

Dan: Cruzan has some great darker rums for blending including a 137 proof to make coquito.
Keith Law: I don’t love their rums, even the 15-year or the blackstrap. A little too medicinal for me.

JT: Evan White was a rookie and it was a weird year, but 40% K rate does not portend great things. Are you still optimistic about the bat?
Keith Law: Him becoming so pull-happy and unable to hit a MLB fastball is a huge concern.

Sal: Have you seen/heard anything about Dom Smith indicating he’ll maintain the numbers from the second half of 19 and 2020? He appears to be one of those guys to root for as a human and player.
Keith Law: That’s the hitter I always thought he’d become, so I wasn’t surprised to see it. I hope they continue to commit to finding him as much playing time as possible.

JR: Why do the Mets feel the need to explore an extension with Lindor? SS free agent class is loaded next year. Yes, he’s a great player, but seems a bit premature. Also, do you find it unique that they are publicly discussing that they are exploring extension talks with Lindor and Conforto? Seems like most of these extensions get announced as a surprise (like Tatis, Jr).
Keith Law: They’re clearly trying to signal to fans that it’s not Wilpon business as usual any more.

Paul: If we get to a point where every dr, nurse, every waiter, bartender, is vaccinated and hospitalizations are low – doesn’t it make sense to open things up?
Keith Law: Gradually, sure. Completely, as Texas and Maryland have done? No. A restaurant full of maskless (or frequently masks-off) people, mostly unvaccinated, is still a bad idea.
Keith Law: To be more specific: It is not supported by the science. Restaurants don’t have the distancing or ventilation required for maskless dining.

Appa Yip Yip: What players are your highest priority evaluations for this year? Guys who intrigue but haven’t been seen much or played in a bit?
Keith Law: That was my column yesterday. Gave 32 names, I think, despite the headline (which I didn’t write).

Bernie Brewer: Arcia vs. Luis Urias is a real post-hype prospect battle. Are either still potential assets for MLW?
Keith Law: I won’t give up on either guy … yet.

Andre: Keith – What have you heard about Robert Puason? It seems as though he went from being hailed as a top prospect ($5 million bonus) to almost an afterthought before playing a game in the US.
Keith Law: I don’t think he was really that top of a prospect, but he did get a huge bonus. Ton of concerns about his bat and body before and after he signed.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to some of the other recent catchers who were picked in the first round in the last few years?  He went to our local HS and was very excited to see your write up on him and that he is that well regarded.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Whichever team gets most comfortable with his unorthodox swing will pull the trigger somewhere in the teens, I think. Power for sure, high contact rates now, and can definitely catch. If everyone loved the swing and thought he’d continue to put the ball in play he’d be a top 10 guy.

JR: As weird as it sounds, I honestly think corporate America is our best bet to increase vaccine rates, especially the airlines, cruise ships, amusement parks, stadiums, etc. Places that accommodate large crowds. If they all institute a “you can’t visit our place/use our services without a vaccine or a recent (less than 24 hours) negative test” it will force anti vaxxers to either comply or prove negative test before being amongst a big group of people.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s bizarre, and inefficient, but some corporations are doing more on massive issues like climate change or LGBTQ+ rights than our own government.

Dixie: Have you ever read “The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have – here’s my review from 2009. Chabon’s a brilliant writer who needs an editor to reign him in.

Tom: Have had debates about madrigal’s potential offensive output. No way he even slugs .420 (nice) or so right??
Keith Law: No evidence that is or ever will be within his skill set.

Max: What percent of this Mickey Moniak resurgence are you buying — 25%?
Keith Law: Zero for now. He’s got 10 AB in early spring training.

Tom: At what point will you vote for the person who will more likely unite america as opposed to the candidate we agree with more?
Keith Law: Show me a candidate who can “unite” America – after 12 years of GOP obstructionism, in particular – and we can talk.

Pat D: I think I know the answer, but will conservatives remember that they started “cancel culture?”  Bill Maher after 9/11, The Dixie Chicks, but even much longer ago The Beatles after the “more popular than Jesus” statement.  Also, can us sane people please agree that “cancel culture” is a bullshit, inaccurate term anyway?
Keith Law: It’s a term that segment of the media loves almost as much as they love talking about trans athletes.

Adam: I know you do not choose what to advertise on your podcast, but have you ever had to refuse to promote somewhat who wanted to buy ad time?  If a “anti-vax” org wanted to buy a spot, for example, could you go to the people at the Athletic (or before that, ESPN) and say that there was no way you would read the provided copy?
Keith Law: Yes. I have declined some ads and asked for changes in other ad copy (e.g., a product that wanted me to call it delicious, when I tried it and did not find it delicious).

JG: Is Whitley now destined to join Appel and Aiken as Astros 1st round pitching prospects to never pitch in the Big Leagues?
Keith Law: It’s Tommy John surgery … he’ll be back. Maybe he’ll never be what we thought, but he’ll be back.

addoeh: Any interesting/amusing stories from how you and your wife met or from your first few dates?
Keith Law: I’d have to check with her before sharing too much, but I think this is fair game: neither of us was all that sure that the other was interested after the first date. I traveled after that and we were texting furiously the whole time, after which point it became clear we could have something special – which we do.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up – I’m sorry, there are still some great questions in the queue. Thank you all for reading. Next week’s chat might be at a different time or even postponed depending on work travel and other things. In the meantime, my breakouts column should run Wednesday, and I have a new review up at Paste of the quick 3-D board game Holi. Thanks again – stay safe and get that vaccine!

Comments

  1. In response to the first question, this article is very interesting:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/how-public-health-messaging-backfired/618147/

    The relevant paragraph is:
    “super-spreading—the biggest driver of the pandemic— appears to be an exclusively indoor phenomenon. I’ve been tracking every report I can find for the past year, and have yet to find a confirmed super-spreading event that occurred solely outdoors. Such events might well have taken place, but if the risk were great enough to justify altering our lives, I would expect at least a few to have been documented by now.”

    This tracks well with the fact that none of the thousands of BLM rallies were associated with any outbreaks. If superspreader events were to happen outdoors, some of those rallies would certainly have led to major documented outbreaks. I don’t think the Rangers are being as reckless as some in the media are making them out to be. In fact, it can easily be argued that they are following the science better than those who aren’t letting many or any fans into outdoor arenas.

    • Great article. Thanks for sharing that.

      I will offer one objection, though. What the Rangers are proposing – 40,000+ fans, sitting next to each other, without masks – is very different than anything we’ve seen before during the pandemic. The low frequency of outdoor transmission reflects the bans on gatherings, widespread mask usage, and distancing.

    • The Rangers are requiring masks.

      What the Rangers are proposing in fact aligns extremely closely to what we’ve seen during the pandemic. We had thousands of outdoor gatherings all over America this summer at BLM rallies. Some of the largest certainly had tens of thousands of people.

      Why should there be a difference between BLM rallies where people are standing or marching next to each other and a sporting event where people are sitting? At BLM rallies, people were continually chanting, shouting, singing, etc., thus expelling potentially infected air from their lungs at a high rate constantly. At a game, people will cheer, but only intermittently. If anything, a sporting event should be safer.

    • Globe Life Field is a retractable roof ballpark, so it isn’t quite the same risk as a BLM protest. BLM protests were completely out in open areas, with nothing stopping the sun and wind. Here, you are still surrounded by four walls and a roof, potentially. If the roof is open and what looks like windows are open in left field, the risk is decreased. If not, it’s much more of an indoor space with modern air conditioning. Regarding masks, who is going to be monitoring compliance and how many people will be doing it? Most people will comply, of course but there will be some trying to see what they can get away with. If someone has a drink in their hand or some food on their lap, will they remove their mask, even if they aren’t actively drinking/eating right then?

      Of course, New Zealand did have capacity crowds for rugby, Keith’s new favorite sport, last June, but that was after they had eliminated all cases.

    • I would say the primary difference between BLM protests and a baseball game is the fact that you’re sitting mostly motionless for three or so hours at a game. While it seems the virus breaks apart fairly easily in most outdoor breezes (including those you generate yourself while walking), spending multiple hours sitting nearby an infected person would seem to me to carry some additional risk, particularly if that person was right beside or behind you.

    • …and has their mask off for all or part of the game. People at sporting events tend to eat and drink a lot, and that’s assuming Texans don’t just ignore the rules and take their masks off once they’re in their seats.

  2. Keith, while I disagree strongly with MD’s Gov. Hogan, I think it’s misleading to clump Texas and Maryland’s pronouncements. Texas has lifted all restrictions, both in terms of attendance and masking (aka “the war’s over, let’s party as if it never happened’). Maryland’s set a 50% capacity and requires continued social distancing and mask usage. In addition, counties have the option ot opt out and maintain stricter procedures.

    • I understand your point, but I wasn’t trying to equate the two, just to say in both cases I think the Governors are acting against the evidence. Abbott has gone for the nuclear option while Hogan is merely playing with a small fire.

  3. Missed the chat, but now I will be listening to Fun Lovin’ Criminals all day….

  4. Finished up a couple of Baseball in NYC in the Glory Days type books recently and realized that I know one person still living who went to a lot of Brooklyn Dodger games. My buddy’s dad was born in 1946, has alzheimer’s and is not generally doing well.

    But, I caught him on a good day and we talked for a half an hour on the phone last weekend about Dem Bums. It was incredible. He described how vivid the colors were once you walked into Ebbetts Field. The green grass, the white and blue of the uniforms…the players…Snider…Furillo…Pee Wee..Campy…Jackie…Newk…his mom would take him and his friends every Saturday and go through the same ticket taker’s gate because he would let all the friends in…Dolph Camilli lived in his neighborhood…

    And he still, over 60 years later, brought up the name Robert Moses. Did not blame him for everything, said there was plenty of blame to go around on all fronts.

    But still, Robert Moses.

  5. Hi Keith,

    I am curious, without getting into the too gory/personal details – but what stomach issues were you having that warranted the use of Metamucil. I have my share of stomach problems but not sure if they are similar etc. Thanks!

    • I was tested for Crohn’s, ulcerative colitis, celiac, and more, but nothing came back positive so I got the catchall diagnosis of IBD. That really doesn’t mean anything or have a specific treatment but a daily psyllium husk supplement has helped tremendously.