Klawchat 10/22/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

Keith Law: You know they won’t win. Klawchat.

Samir: Corbin Carroll and Tyler Freeman are two prospects for whom there were reports of unlocked power at the alternate sites. Did you hear the same? Which of the two do you think could surprise the most with their power tool?
Keith Law: Carroll had power before, so I’m not sure what would have been unlocked. I haven’t heard that on Freeman, but I’m also pretty skeptical of anything I hear from alternate sites because it’s all from the teams themselves.

Ken: The sign stealing scandal doesn’t appear to be going away which must be concerning to MLB. As more people begin to speak out MLB’s investigation of the Astros and Red Sox is looking worse. If the “Yankee letter” is unsealed and discloses other undisclosed infractions by the Yankees or other clubs is Rob Manfred done as Commish?
Keith Law: That’s hilarious. There is no chance this undoes Manfred as Commissioner. He’d be at greater risk if he penalized more teams, not fewer.

Michael: Have you heard any word/update on how some of the newer Rockie prospects have been doing at instructs, specifically Veen and Romo?
Keith Law: The Rockies aren’t allowing scouts at instructs, so no, unfortunately.

Derek: Alec Bohm…..future stud or SSS this year?
Keith Law: Future star with the bat. Probably ends up at 1B, which does cut off some of his statistical upside.

Ben (MN): Do you plan on reading Hugh Acheson’s new “How to Cook”? I bought it even though it is aimed at new cooks because I figure if it is Hugh it will be worth a read anyway. Do you have any favorite recipes from his other cookbooks?
Keith Law: I do – the only book of his I haven’t gotten was the slow cooker one. I just made his kohlrabi and pecan salad from The Broad Fork last night. That book also has a great carrot soup recipe and a shiitake/ponzu salad I love.

Preston: I don’t like not being super interested in the Series. Maybe it’s that my Cubs stunk it up. Maybe it’s no atmosphere. But I’d like to blame it on bullpenning. It just doesn’t make for a smooth watch. What can/should be done in the future?
Keith Law: If MLB capped the number of pitchers teams could bring, that would help. I think the 3 batter minimum rule has had the unforeseen consequence of teams filling their pens with more relievers capable of going an inning-plus, which makes bullpenning much easier than it was when teams had a specialist or two.

Jeremy: Was there more going on with mike foltynewicz than just decreased velocity? seems like braves needed help and some reports said his velo was coming back but he never got another crack. is he worth taking a shot on this offseason or toast?
Keith Law: Worth a shot, but he’s had some minor arm stuff that is concerning. I’d put him behind guys like Hamels or Kluber, who have longer track records of success but are coming off injury-wrecked years.

Krontz: Is there a board game bubble? If not, possibly soon? Finally, how can the industry adapt to sustain growth?
Keith Law: I read this at first as asking if there was a place where board gamers could all go and live in a bubble so they could play endless board games without fear of COVID-19, and that sounds pretty great, actually. Yes, there are more board games published right now than the market can really support. I’m not sure how long it will last, but my suspicion is that the $50+ games, and publishers that rely on those, will be at highest risk. An extended economic downturn would probably exacerbate that issue.

Randall: Who is that rays #1 prospect we’ve been hearing about for years ? He still #1 for you ? I haven’t heard much about him lately
Keith Law: You probably haven’t heard much about Wander Franco lately because there were no minor league games this year.

Dab: Do you think Brailyn Marquez ends up as a starter?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible, but he might be a better reliever.
Keith Law: As opposed to saying he can’t hold up as a starter, or lacks the stuff for it.

Jeremy: which GM jobis better — phillies or marlins?
Keith Law: Phillies. My understanding is that Gary Denbo has so much authority within Miami that a new GM would at least have to defer somewhat to his judgments on players, and I think many GM candidates would prefer the greater independence of the Philly job.

Randall: What’s the outlook for the Rockies ? Never hear much about good prospects from them. Future bright ?
Keith Law: I just did a Q&A with our Rockies beat writer about that.

J5: How many HR’s do you project Ke’Bryan Hayes hits during his prime years?
Keith Law: 15-20. I don’t think he has the swing path for more. I think he can really hit, though, and he’s an 80 defender.

John: With Mitch submarining a new round of stimulus to hamstring the next administration from growth is there any hope that without a clean democrat sweep we just see obstruction the next 4 years?
Keith Law: If the GOP holds the Senate, we will see obstruction for the next 4 years for sure.
Keith Law: That’s the GOP’s whole playbook and the Democratic Party still hasn’t adjusted.

Jeremy: buy-low free agents or trade options teams should consider?
Keith Law: My top 40 free agents ranking will go up two days after the WS ends. As for trade targets, I’ll write more about that in November.

Mac: Rocker or Leiter?
Keith Law: I’ll say “other.” This idea that Kumar Rocker is the clear 1-1 guy for 2021 is so completely ridiculous. We do this shit every year, naming one guy who’s famous as the obvious #1 overall pick, and most years it’s wrong. Rocker is a first-rounder, and Leiter will be too if he throws more strikes, but either has a lot to improve to get to 1-1 for me.

John: Is Arozarena much of a prospect going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but October is an inherently small sample. He isn’t suddenly a top 10 overall prospect, even though he’s played like one this month.

Jason: What would you do if you were the Phillies?  Would McPhail go and who would you hire as President/GM?  The Phillies need a lot of help in the front office and most fans are worried who they will pick.
Keith Law: Everyone seems to think McPhail will retire after his contract expires next fall, so they could wait a year and hire both at that point (when Theo Epstein’s contract will also be up), or they could hire a GM now and plan not to replace McPhail in that role.

Guy B: How can I argue with some of my right wing friends that making someone wear a mask and being pro choice can be the same thing?  I find it hard to reason with them, thanks Keith.
Keith Law: It’s hard to reason with the unreasonable. You’re wearing a mask to protect other humans in your community.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, after a few years of patience, Dansby Swanson finally blossomed.  I know you’ve always been skeptical of his bat speed, but did Austin Riley show you anything this year that would warrant the same patience?
Keith Law: Nope, on the contrary, he has had every bit as much trouble with velocity as I expected. He whiffed on average or better fastballs more than twice as often as he had base hits against them. This is what he is.

Troy: IMO giving $200M to a C is a mistake. Am I wrong in thinking JT will be overpaid and Philly is right to let him walk?
Keith Law: Yeah I wouldn’t give him $200MM … even at a six-year deal, which seems like the longest he should get, that’s more than he’s likely to be worth as a catcher in his 30s whose durability will probably decline over the course of the deal.

Dab: On a scale of 1-10 how much does it bother you to see fans at the games now? I really don’t care for it at all. Pretty hypocritical of the league to make players be ultra cautious for months only to let thousands of people into the same stadium as them
Keith Law: A 10. Tiny reward, huge risk. And look at how few fans are actually wearing masks.
Keith Law: The biggest risk is going in/out of the stadium, where fans will be clustering at the entry/egress points and unable to distance.

Jason: Do you think the brewers window from 2018-2019 has closed?  If so, what should they do– Trade Hader?
Keith Law: No, not closed, not with Burnes and Woodruff looking like a 1-2 now. But it’s going to get harder and more expensive to build the rest of the roster around them because their system is so thin now.

Diego: Hello Keith – what will be your first travel spot after covid?
Keith Law: Sort of depends on when that point is, but if you’re talking leisure travel involving a plane, probably Europe.

Jay: Are there people out there who actually enjoy Buck & Smoltz?  Buck seems to have a pretty low level of baseball knowledge for a broadcaster, and Smoltz repeatedly criticizes the product and harps on all the confidence/momentum nonsense.  When Smoltz tries to explain mechanics, he uses weird terms of art that no casual fan is ever going to follow.  How do these two smug buffoons keep getting tapped to call LCS and World Series games every year?
Keith Law: I do not understand why we’re stuck with Smoltz, who seems to disdain the product on the field and utterly refuses to learn about other ways of looking at the game, in the critical role of color analyst. I just can’t listen to these guys. If he were just intellectually curious enough to consider different perspectives, and balance his commentary accordingly, it would be a quantum improvement. But I also don’t think you should have a job like that (or mine, for that matter) if you lack that sort of curiosity.

Nate: i know you’re a big Anthony Kay fan, but other than him, Pearson, and ryu, do the jays have anyone internally who you think can be slotted into the rotation starting in 2021?
Keith Law: Maybe Murphy can’t hold up as a starter but I’d give him a shot.

Greg: I’m not asking you if Bryse Wilson is going to be the guy he was against LA in every start of his career, but what are your future expectations of him? Can he be a mid-rotation type?
Keith Law: I do think so. Been on my top 100 at least the last two years.

Ted: Do you think Jonathan Stiever has good chance to be a top-end of rotation guy?
Keith Law: No, but I like him as a back-end starter who could get to mid-rotation.

Jason: What are you expecting at tonight’s debate, the same nonsense, does a mute button help? And Keith how many Chinese bank accounts do you have?
Keith Law: Different nonsense, I guess. It’s pretty clear Trump believes he can lie with impunity – and he’s not wrong in that – although a mute button probably helps Biden stay on message. I refuse to answer your second question on the grounds that I may incriminate myself.

Jack: If you’re GM of the Braves, what are your next steps to getting over that last hump?
Keith Law: Go add a corner bat. They’re weak at 3b, one OF corner (assuming Acuña and Pache handle two spots), DH if that’s permanent. Ozuna was a brilliant move. Maybe they try that again, a one-year flier on a guy who was down last year. But I think they also likely need to get a more guaranteed thumper at one of those spots.

Sho: When a player goes on a hot streak, how much do you attribute to 1) physical 2) mental 3) luck?
Keith Law: I’d say it’s nearly all luck, or randomness, which I think is probably a better word for it.

Jeremy: does luhnow run a baseball team ever again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Ted: Have you tried or heard of anyone trying one of those Ooni pizza ovens? I’m considering the pellet wood version.
Keith Law: I own one. It’s great. Gets to 800 degrees pretty easily, cooks a pizza (if you use the right dough, which has to be lower hydration than a dough for your home oven) in 90 seconds.

Bob Loblaw: The Cardinals are confounding.  How are they so good at scouting and developing pitching but so bad at scouting and developing hitting?  The Arozorena and Voit trades look like debacles, but even going back, why did they trade Marco Gonzalez for Tyler ONeil?  That was a bad trade
Keith Law: I’m afraid that they overreacted to brief looks on some of those guys – Gonzales was so bad in his debut, and it seems like they concluded that his stuff wouldn’t work in the majors. But I give them a complete pass on Voit, who became a different hitter after leaving.

Steve: Is there minor league baseball next year?  If no how far back will it set talent development and impact the industry for years to come?
Keith Law: The odds are that there are no fans in 2021, at which point I think MLB has to step up and subsidize at least some MiLB teams/leagues, because the long-term cost in talent development will be enormous. It’s a revenue problem.

Minka: Favorite sushi roll?
Keith Law: I nearly always keep it simple when I get sushi – if the fish is good enough to eat raw, I want to taste the fish, not fillers. So I usually get nigiri rather than rolls, and if I get rolls they’re very simple ones that highlight the fish. I avoid things with sweet sauces, or tempura, or avocado, at least when ordering for myself. I’ll certainly eat other things if someone else orders.

Ben: Do you think there was a true benefit (over what his traditional MiLB path would be) for a guy like Riley Greene to be playing at the Toledo camp this summer? You hear stuff about facing better competition, but how much of that do you buy into? He’s an extremely talented guy, but still very young and inexperienced.
Keith Law: It’s a binary question – you had two choices with Greene, or Carroll, or CJ Abrams: They go to the alternate site, or they don’t play at all over the summer. In that case, the first option is clearly preferable.

Nate: The marlins were a great story this year, but do you seem them as a team on the rise that could legit compete next year, or more of a bad team still a while away that just got lucky with some SSS success last year?
James: Are you concerned about Mike Trout’s defensive metrics? Or are they likely a fluke given the short season? And do you still see him as a 10 WAR player for the next few years?
Keith Law: Nate: An average-ish team that got a bit lucky, with upside over the next several years but probably not a playoff team in 2021.
Keith Law: James: All defensive metrics are unreliable for 2020. The sample size was just too small.

Pat D: I’m choosing to watch the Giants/Eagles game tonight because I like to torture myself by watching the Giants’ ineptitude, I refuse to watch the WS as a bitter Yankees fan, and I just can’t listen to Trump’s voice.  Does that sound sane?
Keith Law: No Ertz or Sanders, though. Gonna be really ugly.

Josh: Hi.  My household income is around $500,000.  Please, PLEASE tax me more, and give struggling families a fighting chance (comprehensive healthcare, after-school care through high school, etc.).
Keith Law: One thing I do not really understand is why so many people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate – and I’m pretty sure I will be paying more if he’s elected – are opposed to it. If you make that much money, it is at least a rational view to say you oppose a plan that will cost you more in taxes and almost certainly yield you less value in direct return (although you may gain psychic value from improving public goods, or even secondary value from living in a safer or more prosperous community/country). If you don’t, though, why the fuck are you opposed to taxing people who earn annual income that puts them in the top 1% of US earners marginally more?
Keith Law: For the record: I’ll pay more under Biden, and I’m good with that. Fund health care. Re-fund environmental regulations, diversity training, and basic science research.

Tim: Game 7 NLCS, worst TOOTBLAN of all time?
Keith Law: Kolten Wong in 2013 (?) was pretty bad too.

Mike: Safe to assume if your boardgame list says medium complexity (or less) that a 10 year old could play? You don’t have a list oriented to families, right? anyway, have a great day.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s right. I chose to put complexity tags on those rather than carve out a separate list, because every kid is a little different and I figured you would know your kid(s) better than I would.

JR: Is “Piranesi” in your queue of books to read soon? I enjoyed it. I’ll admit I was shocked to see it was only 250 pages after her first book was over 1000.
Keith Law: Yes, but maybe over the winter.

DEF: I really like your lists of top board games and top 2 player board games. Any chances of getting a top solo board game list?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure, this winter.
Keith Law: I’ll include games that are strictly solo plus those with good solitaire modes.

Joel: Did Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright do enough for the Braves to feel comfortable relying on them in 2021?
Keith Law: Wilson yes, Wright probably not. I expect both to make starts for Atlanta in 2021 but I think Wright will have to fight to maintain a spot in the rotation.

Kevin: What is your approach to following the election results on November 3rd? Most of my friends say they’ll tune out and wait for real developments. I seriously doubt my ability to do the same, as good as it may be for my mental health.
Keith Law: I’ve been involved in some local elections, especially Kyle Evans Gay’s campaign to flip our State Senate district blue, so I’ll be watching results at many levels.

J5: Lorenzen was ok as an SP in the short stint.  CIN will lose Bauer… any chance he makes the rotation?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. I think he’s a reliever only.

J5: Is Julio Urias better suited in the bullpen w/ Price coming back next year?  Or does Gonsolin or May get the boot?
Keith Law: Urias should start if he can handle the workload. Also, I am not quite ready to bank on Price making 30+ starts next year … my guess is May starts in AAA (if such a thing exists) and becomes the call-up when they need another starter.

Josh: Enjoying any tv shows lately?
Keith Law: Just finished The Vow (great start, petered out in the last 3 episodes). Enjoying the new season of GBBO. Mostly watching the playoffs this month, though. We’ll get back on movies and TV next week.

J5: Lamet, Clevinger, Gore, Patino, Paddack, Davies… which one doesnt make it next yr in the rotation?
Keith Law: I think Gore is the odd man out right now.

Rupert: I have a 5 and 7 year old, and there’s basically no board game I’ve found that can keep their attention (or at least the 5 year old’s attention).  Any suggestions?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on what they like – I see a lot of games suitable for ages 5+, like Ticket to Ride First Journey, but if your kids don’t like maps or train games, that may not be the ideal choice. I haven’t cracked Dragomino, the young players’ version of Kingdomino, yet, but it looks promising.

Dr. Bob: RE: The Arozorena question. At only 19, Andruw Jones broke upon our consciousness in the 1996 playoffs and WS after only playing 31 games that year. Was he already considered a top prospect? In any words, is there any correlation to Arozorena?
Keith Law: Andruw was one of the best prospects in baseball before 1996. I think BA had him in their top 2 or 3, if not actually at 1.

Geoff: I’ve found myself thinking about this recently: what will be the point where you’re confident about/feel safe being around others in a “normal” way (i.e. no mask, large crowds, etc.)? After there’s a real, effective vaccine obviously, but right after? A few weeks after when infections are way down? Longer?
Keith Law: If infections are way down, and we’re seeing high enough vaccination rates in the places I want to go, then I’ll travel. It might be safer to travel to Europe, for example, where they have fewer batshit anti-mask people.

Ben: Keith, do you have any concerns about Biden’s connections with China, Russia & Ukraine? Not saying compared to Trump, just in a vacuum, does this new information trouble you at all?
Keith Law: No because I don’t fall for bullshit.

Jason: Is a healthy rotation of Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Wright, and Wilson a top 10-type rotation, or am I putting too much hope in Wright and hype into SSS from Anderson and Wilson?
Keith Law: With Soroka having some history of injuries and Wilson/Wright both showing at least some inconsistency, I’d like to see them take a shot at a one-year starter, even if that’s also someone who isn’t a lock for 30 starts, to increase their chances of getting those innings from somewhere other than the Josh Tomlins of the world.

Ben (Chi): What’s your take on all these Cubs layoffs?  Penny wise, pound foolish?
Keith Law: Misanthropic. Although given that Todd Ricketts profile in the New Yorker, I’m hardly surprised.

Mike: Keith, they have to do something about the time the World Series starts. With games taking close to 4 hours, am I the only one who checks out early & goes to bed?
Keith Law: I agree with this … we get up at 6:45 here for school and games ending around midnight means that I’m running on fumes most days. I actually went back to bed this morning because I had such a bad headache, which I think was a function of lack of sleep.

Guest: You’ve previously said Ian Anderson has the ceiling of a #2 but I believe this was before the development of his change. Does the new pitch change your view of his (already high) ceiling?
Keith Law: I’m holding to that because I think the breaking ball is a little light and the fastball is good not outstanding.
Keith Law: The changeup is a 70, though, and I did not have that.

Jason: Do you ever use UberEats or Doordash?What do you think about these delivery apps?
Keith Law: I don’t. I’ve read that their terms are pretty bad for the restaurants, so we always order directly.

TomBruno23: What is the deal with tea? Granted I like coffee and I sound like the people who hate on coffee. But tea to me tastes like someone took perfectly good water and ran it through a sewer.
Keith Law: There are so many kinds of tea – black, white, green, oolong, plus tisanes like red – and even within some of those categories there are vast differences in flavor profiles (e.g., green includes matcha, which tastes like grass, and hojicha, which is roasted and more earthy), that you might just not have found the right kind for your palate.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, please tell me there is hope for this team! The Dodgers are loaded. The Padres will be good for a long time too. But the Dbacka major league team is such a disaster, and the front office seems to think it will be fine next year?! Is there any hope they can compete again in 2022 or so?
Keith Law: Lot of hope. Really like the position player prospects in the low minors. But that franchise really needs an MiLB season in 2021.

Pizza is good: I asked a couple chats back if you thought frozen Pizzeria Bianca was worth a shot. I did and it was really terrific. Individual ingredients really stand out. Good rec. thanks.
Keith Law: Awesome! I know it’s quite expensive but for the best pizza in the country it’s not an unreasonable splurge.

Ridley: Just so we’re clear, Rudy Giuliani’s excuses were bullshit, weren’t they?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

J5: Out of these rotation candidates, Severino/German/Deivi/Montgomery/Schmidt, which 2-3 do you think makes it next year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Severino being healthy for a full season, but he’ll make some starts. Deivi probably did the most to earn the spot.

addoeh: Any plans for a pizza list update?  I know you haven’t been able to cross many off your list recently.
Keith Law: I was going to do one this spring or summer, but the pandemic put it on hold.

Adam: Maybe the Padres didn’t send away any “premier” talent for Mike Clevinger, but they basically gutted their upper minor/major league depth in the trade for him. That could come back to haunt them in a full season, right?
Keith Law: Eh, Trammell’s the one guy they might most regret trading and he was in a different deal. I’m worried about this ridiculous Campusano story … felony charges for weed possession? was he in Georgia or Indonesia?

Josh: My theory (on people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate, opposing it) is, way too briefly:  they (1) have no idea how much wealth is concentrated at far-right reaches of the income distribution curve (big numbers are really hard, even for smart people), and/or (2) aspire to the grievances of the 0.1% having to fork over millions in taxes.
Keith Law: I’ve heard #2 as an explanation for decades, but I think #1 is more plausible. And maybe it’s like people trying to understand how large the universe is and how tiny we are relative to it. We just can’t. So if you make $30K a year, can you really imagine the difference in wealth and standard of living for someone making 20 times that?

Mike: Is it a foregone conclusion that Lindor gets traded before next season?  If so, most likely landing spot?
Keith Law: I think so. I’m not sure what the market is right now, though. Some of the teams that should be most interested might not have the pieces to make the trade.

Ridley: Lauren Witzke. Please tell me she’s not going to win that seat.
Keith Law: She’ll be lucky to get 1/3 of the vote. She’s an open white nationalist running in a very blue state. She might win Kent or Sussex counties but more than half of our population is right here in New Castle.

TomBruno23: Jones was #21 pre-95, #1 pre-96 and #1 pre-97 on BA’s lists.
Keith Law: I was right! I should trust my memory sometimes. But not too often.

Guest: Thanks for the chat, Keith. Assuming owners approve the Mets sale, what do you think of Cohen turning baseball ops over to Sandy Alderson? I always loved Sandy, and am okay with pairing him with a young, smart GM (you interested in the job?) but I also wonder if it might be better to turn the page completely from past eras or even to try to lure Theo from the sinking ship that is the Cubs ownership.
Keith Law: Thrilled to see Sandy return, think he’s so respected that he’ll get the right kind of person in as GM. Plus the pattern of execs going over the GM to Jeff or Fred Wilpon is gone now.

Philip C.: Daniel Lynch reports from the alternate site were electric. What is timeline for his debut?
Keith Law: I bet we would have seen him this summer if the Royals had been contenders.

Mike: Franklin BBQ brisket is now available on Goldbelly.  $250 for a 5lb brisket.  Worth it?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, but I have had their brisket, and it is absolutely incredible. If you’re reasonable about portion sizes, that’s about $12.50 per portion – brisket is rather fatty, and if you’re eating 6-8 ounces, well, vaya con Dios – and that’s a good price for high-quality beef.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m taking a week off leading up to the election to volunteer for various campaigns, so there won’t be a chat next week, but the top 40 free agent rankings post will go up some time between next Tuesday and Friday, and I may do a live Zoom Q&A through the Athletic to support that. Thanks for reading, everyone. Stay safe, wear your masks, and vote for reason and science.