Klawchat 7/3/20.

My latest column for subscribers to the Athletic is up now, looking at prospects who were included in 60-man player pools, and notable omissions as well.

Keith Law: Where lands are green and skies are blue. Klawchat.

Matt: A few weeks ago there was a video of Tarik Skubal throwing 102 during a work out.  As a Tigers fan should I be concerned with him overthrowing like that or is stuff like that commonplace with pitchers when they train?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t be concerned, but I also wouldn’t believe that that was some new normal for him, or that he’ll start throwing like that in games. Kevin Gausman used to hit 102-103 in college by crow-hopping one throw at the end of his pregame warmups. That’s not real. And these guys throwing 101+ in highly controlled situations that show up on twitter videos are not going to throw that hard when they’re in real games, going 90-110 pitches, with actual batters and umpires involved.

Matt D: Does the cultural appropriation in board gaming ever give you pause? Ever passed on playing a game due to theme, artwork, accuracy, etc.? I struggle with this esp given prevalent whiteness of board gamers.
Keith Law: Yes, I gave a critical review to the original version of Five Tribes (since revised) for including slave cards in the game. The argument from the designer was that it was accurate to the history of the time and culture covered, but it was unnecessary and insensitive. I’ve avoided some other games with themes that made me uncomfortable, and shared a big article from the New York Times a year or so ago about a game that never saw the market that depicted European countries’ rush to colonize Africa around 1900.

Guest: I have to make a long term fantasy decision, Grayson Rodriguez or Tarik Skubal. Who is the better prospect?
Keith Law: Skubal for me. My answer to these questions will usually line up with my rankings of the players on my top 100, unless there’s a timing issue (one player being far closer to the majors than the other).

Guest: Kyle Wright or Felix Hernandez for the Braves 5th rotation slot
Keith Law: Depends a little on how Felix throws. If he has some velocity back, I’d be fine giving him the spot. I wonder if the longer layoff will help some older pitchers like him who’ve lost velocity in the last year or two.

Matt: I can’t be the only one nonplussed about celebrating tomorrow.
Keith Law: What is there to celebrate right now?

Guest: At what point do the Braves address the surplus of young, big league ready pitchers on the roster? Newcomb, Toussaint, Wilson, Wright, Muller and others seem stuck.
Keith Law: Some will end up in bullpen roles but I think we’ll see some of those names traded either in August or this offseason to fill an offensive hole somewhere.

Tom: How do you evaluate SP Jose Urquidy for Houston?
Keith Law: Fourth starter ceiling, since his four-seamer is probably too hittable. Full report on him in my Astros prospect rankings from the spring.

HH: Do you think it’s strange that after all this time baseball still doesn’t have a real definition of a “checked swing”?
Keith Law: I do, and I don’t. I do think it’s strange that the definition hasn’t been clarified in, what, decades? But I also can see an argument that a checked swing is about intent, and judging intent is inherently subjective.
Keith Law: I might look up that definition several times a year, because I find my mind tries to put language into it that isn’t there, and it’s so unsatisfying to get a non-answer from the rules.

Pat D.: Why are they still pretending like the Field of Dreams game is going to happen?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Field of Pipe Dreams is more like it.

Adam: What is the percent chance we see a game on the 23rd in your opinion?
Keith Law: I think we get games on the July 23rd. I am way less optimistic that we see games on September 23rd.

kc: what do you see out of Montas, Luzardo and Puk? Kaprelian, Jefferies?
Keith Law: All are covered in my Oakland prospect rankings. I do think that Luzardo and Puk belong in their rotation right now.

Will: You’re high on Bryce Wilson. Should the Braves move him now before they settle him into a bullpen role and kill his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think it would kill his value to use him in relief. Other teams have scouting reports from the last two years that show what he can do as a starter (and what he still needs to work on).

x: two questions about Atlanta already but your time has come! it’s over in Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland next right!?
Keith Law: Cleveland is far more egregious than Atlanta. I think if Cleveland falls – and my god, it has to now, it’s an absolute embarrassment that it’s even taken this long – then we can shift our focus to Atlanta (and the chant, it’s the chant more than anything).

Ryan: Hey Keith. My in laws are right wing nut jobs. They keep trying to get my wife to go visit them, but they don’t wear masks and insist that covid is a hoax. My wife is stressed out because she feels like she is betraying her family. I told my wife I don’t want her visiting them anymore with how much they don’t care. How should I handle this situation? For context, I’m in Arizona. Thank you.
Keith Law: You shouldn’t visit them – it’s now a matter of safety, especially since they’re older and all the information we have says that the older you are the more able you are to catch AND to spread this virus.

Matt: Why don’t sports leagues just relocate to countries that have very low cases of covid and just quarantine there?
Keith Law: Why would those countries take us? Imagine sending all MLB players, coaches, and staff – easily over 1000 people – to Uruguay. Why would Uruguay let us in, knowing that the odds are quite high that at least one person in the group would have the virus?

Guest: So I get the obvious reasons why the Redskins’ name has to go.  But does the logo?  If the Redskins were renamed the Lakota or the Comanche, would the name/logo combo still be racist?  Why?
Keith Law: Yes. And yes.

Nate: Do you think the short season could help Forrest Whitley finally get back on track again? Seems like it would help with his workload a lot, but who knows if he’s finally figured his mechanics  back out again?
Keith Law: Don’t think the short season matters. His mechanics were fine in the AFL.

AJ: Who was a better prospect as an amateur for you, Zac Veen or David Dahl? Are they similar prospects in any way other than LHH HS OF’s?
Keith Law: Veen, by a small margin. He’s got more raw power at the same age.

Lark11: Do you think Jesse Winker gets the majority of the DH ABs for the Reds? What do you think Winker’s offensive peak will be? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s nearly a .400 OBP guy vs RHP already in the majors. I think he’ll do well enough against lefties, given more experience, that he won’t have to be platooned. Even at 15 HR/year that’s a regular, and that ballpark may mean he gets well past that.

Greg: The NBA has a “bubble” set up that the players aren’t supposed* to leave, and even then players are worried. Baseball players… are just coming and going as they please? Who knows how many different people they’ll come into contact with? Realistically, there’s almost no way even this shortened season is completed, right?
Keith Law: As far as I can tell, it’s an honor system, assuming that players will behave outside of the ballpark, and there is no way I will believe that all of these men, some of whom are barely adults, will adhere strictly to basic safety procedures (like, say, avoiding bars).

Greg: Low on the list of concerns I know… but is this going to be the worst/best/most interesting Oscars year ever? Are they going to have to change the rules for movies released VOD? Does anyone really want to go back top movie theaters?
Keith Law: They have already changed the rules to allow movies that go right to VOD to compete – you no longer have to have a theatrical run. So I think Hamilton is now eligible. The bigger concern from an overall quality perspective is that many studios may just push movies into 2021 – like In the Heights, for example.

Amin: Hi Keith – Is it fair to read into Austin Beck’s omission from the list of 60 players as a sign of Oakland’s diminishing faith/frustration with his development? It seems rather odd that they wouldn’t invite a player that they picked 6th overall and gave $5 million to only 3 years ago even though his production has been underwhelming.
Keith Law: I see it that way, at least. Just get him reps and time working with your coaches in Stockton.

Rich M: How would you grade the Padres 2020 draft now that they signed Cole Wilcox?
Keith Law: I loved their draft from the start because I had no doubt they would sign Wilcox.

Jason: Are projected rookie starters like Lux and Kieboom on a much shorter leash with the abbreviated season?
Keith Law: I don’t know but it seems foolish. What’s a short leash in 60 games? A week? You can’t evaluate anyone off that.

Jason: Over/under on Gore’s innings in 2020?  Also, I saw the picture of Gore in your piece today and his leg kick is ridiculously high.  Do you expect that will be an issue for him in the majors?  Thanks and have a great holiday weekend.
Keith Law: He’s always had that leg kick and repeats it every time. No issue there. I am not making any guesses on innings/at bats at this point when we don’t even know who’s passing their entrance COVID-19 tests.

addoeh: The major European domestic soccer leagues have re-started and Germany has even completed their’s.  Leagues for various sports in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand have all re-started.  The NHL is probably going to complete it’s season in Toronto and Edmonton.  But the US can barely get to square one.  Pretty pathetic.
Scott: Any new book recommendations?
Keith Law: Yep. It surprises me that more patriotic Americans aren’t pissed off that other countries’ responses are so clearly superior to ours. We’re not #1. We are probably last. Shouldn’t that make you mad if you want to be proud of your country?
Keith Law: I just reviewed Being Wrong and would recommend it strongly, as I would Mindware, a review of which I was writing this morning. I am also 3/4 of the way through Ann Patchett’s The Dutch House, one of the finalists for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, and it’s excellent.

Rob: We’ve done a relatively decent job of containing covid here in Canada.  I love the Jays but don’t want any part of them playing regular season games here.  Am I off base?
Keith Law: I won’t blame anyone who opposes sports leagues trying to resume play, or doesn’t want them playing in their town/area.
Keith Law: There’s a good argument that this is all folly, that no league should be trying to play games in the US right now while the pandemic is still raging across the south and threatening to surge again in California and New York.

Matt: Honor system? Imagine how pissed off 10 year veterans with 9 figure bank accounts are gonna be when they find out some taxi squad scrub tested positive because he ate at Olive Garden and sang karaoke at the dive bar across the street.
Keith Law: The veteran can yell at them from six feet away.

Jason: Do you know whether the criteria for rookie eligibility will be lowered and/or prorated?
Keith Law: I have not heard anything about that – I don’t think they will, or should be, but it’s possible I missed it.

Jason: Will starting pitchers be at the park on game day?  Should they?  Wouldn’t it be much better to keep starters separate from the relievers and starting position players from everyone else.  I fear that they will do this all wrong.
Keith Law: If you’re not starting or otherwise unavailable on game day there’s no reason for you to be at the park this year. Again, I don’t know if that’s a policy.

Mike: i know boras is involved but shouldn’t signing Austin Martin be pretty straightforward?  Seems jays are often late in getting deals done…
Keith Law: Don’t think this is anything to do with the Jays. Martin was the best player in the class and went fifth. That’s going to make the negotiations a bit slower.
Keith Law: He should sign, though. He doesn’t really have leverage here – returning to school, with pandemic uncertainty, a strong likely class, and age working against him, is not a good alternative to whatever the Jays’ best offer is.

scrapper: do we know yet how many minor league teams will be gone permanently, starting in 2021?
Keith Law: I believe we’ll be down to 120 full-season teams, then some unknown number of GCL/AZL teams, plus a DSL that looks probably like it did last year.
Keith Law: So all short-season leagues between the complexes and low-A will be gone. Many of those franchises (Aberdeen, Brooklyn, the Northwest League) will move up to full-season leagues. But the number will be 120 plus the complex teams.

Scrapper: Do you Netflix?  Any preferred shows on that platform?
Keith Law: Of course. We just finished Sex Education (the two seasons so far); the acting in that show is incredible, but the writing falls short so often, turning way too much into a teen soap opera. Loved Russian Doll, Never Have I Ever, Big Mouth. Money Heist was very disappointing.

Joe: I got into a Twitter debate a while back with a baseball writer with a national platform who was making the argument that there is no difference between a vote for Trump and a vote for Biden. This is a relatively insane opinion, right?
Keith Law: It is an incorrect statement, probably given by someone unfamiliar with the current administration’s rollbacks of environmental protections or equal rights protections.

Paul: Is Hassell’s hit ability enough to take him above Veen?  Can he stay in center?
Keith Law: Yes to the hit tool, probably no to center.

Scrapper: How soon before we hear teams trying to stick 10-15k fans per game into their stadiums?
Keith Law: Wasn’t Texas already trying this?

Pat D.: If Mike Trout were to opt out, how many others do you think would follow, and would that effectively end the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think him opting out would lead to a big flood of defections. I think it’s more of a tipping point issue – if the trickle of opt-outs keeps going, the pace will accelerate, and eventually we’ll hit some percentage (20%? 30%) where the season becomes infeasible.

Matt: I know it’s not MLB,  but keep in mind the Super Bowl is scheduled in *checks notes* Tampa.
Keith Law: Imagine a Super Bowl without fans. Dead quiet for three hours of football. All because we couldn’t stand to shut the country down for two months.

Joules: Let’s say Ender’s hamstring explodes, could Pache do enough at the plate to be an everyday CF in 2021 assuming that season is ~normal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andy: Bettendorf, Iowa, is having a youth baseball tournament next weekend featuring over 100 teams from at least 4 different states. So the reason the Field of Dreams game is still on, is because Iowa is denial about anything being different.
Keith Law: As they have been since the start of this. Iowa, Nebraska, Arizona, Texas … weird, what do all those governors and legislatures have in common?
Keith Law: I think I just deleted a question by mistake – someone asked if I’d read The Ghost of King Leopold and, if they meant King Leopold’s Ghost, I have.

Taylor: Are you a fan of power metal? If so, i recommend a band called Unleash the Archers. The singer’s voice is gorgeous.
Keith Law: I am. I’ll check it out.

Steve: I’m curious, as an analytical person, how do you decide what political efforts (PACS, candidates, initiatives, etc) to support to get the most bang for your buck. I have limited resources, my local races are fairly set, so I’m looking at the KY, ME Senate races, for example.
Keith Law: Same. I keep the same approach as I do with charitable donations – I give where my buck likely gets the most bang. Food pantries are generally great for this.

Erik: Speaking of Big Mouth and other shows that are changing voice actors. Performative wokeness or actual good?
Keith Law: It absolutely bugged me that Missy, the one prominent black character on Big Mouth, was voiced by a white actor. (Duke Ellington is kind of a side gag.) Also, the show is long over, but my daughter watched Littlest Pet Shop, and the fact that a white person was voicing Sunil with a stereotypical Indian/south Asian accent was kind of appalling.

Doug: How do you think Mateo fits into the Padres plans this year? Still think he has star potential?
Keith Law: I’d probably stick him in CF – they don’t have a proper CF on the roster, right? – and see what happens. I don’t think there’s star potential there any more.

Adam: If Cole Wilcox was highly rated and apparently valued at his $3.3 mil asking price, why was he not selected in a more traditional slot to meet that price?
Keith Law: Perhaps not every team saw him at that price, and there’s certainly an opportunity cost to taking him there.

Guest: Of all, the bad ideas, wasn’t allowing bars to open in a pandemic one of the all time dumbest? With how people act when drunk, it was always clear bars would help cause a surge.
Keith Law: Yes. But the liquor industry has a lot of political power.

Jake: I’m also a huge footie fan and, watching the Premier League’s “Project Restart” is painful. No fans, fake crowd noise, and the intensity of a summer friendly (think spring training).

Is there anything that MLB can do to make these “baseball” games feel like Baseball?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m fine without fans. I’d be fine without broadcasters. I’d skip the fake crowd noise for sure.

Kevin: I think the Padres plan on Grisham in center.
Keith Law: He’s not a CF.

Mike: I think I’ve suggested this before, but you should give the books of Guy Kay Gavriel a shot……a great writer.
Keith Law: Sean Doolittle recommended Sailing to Sarantium and it’s on my Kindle right now.
Keith Law: I’m reading Say Nothing next, though. I got that from my local library – they’re doing curbside pickup now.

Adam: Do you prefer Jarred Kelley for $3mil or Cole Wilcox for $3.3mil?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 100 prospects for this year’s draft class right before the draft itself.

Patrick: How do I square my malignant life-long love of the Cubs with my complete disrespect for Pete Ricketts? Can I support a team when one of the owners is willing to allow people to die?
Keith Law: You could watch them, and root for them, but decline to spend money on them in the form of tickets or merchandise.

JT: Are some prospects losing their shots this year?

Can players still develop in workouts, or is this just too hard?
Keith Law: That was the subject of my column last week … short answer is yes, some will lose their shots, and some will still be able to develop at home, but the only players who might be better off not playing than playing are pitchers who might have pitched this year at less than 100% and get more recovery time.

Rick: Thank you for the enormous amount of work that you put into draft coverage.  I am just curious..  do you get emails from agents or parents of prospects?  I hope that they are civil in nature.
Keith Law: Occasionally. I try not to engage with parents who are anything but civil, because there is no gain for anyone in arguing with a parent that their kid isn’t as good as they think he is. It’s pointless and mean. Agents are another story, as interacting with them is generally part of my job, and most of them can still be civil even when we disagree because they understand that this is just business.

JD: You get to rename the Redskins.  What’s their new name?
Keith Law: I like the suggestion that they use the Grays for its historical significance (that’s the most prominent Negro Leagues team to play in DC), but it’s not the most inspiring name beyond that. I don’t have a better suggestion, though.

KRod: When do you move Vladdy over to 1st?  is that even the best move?
Keith Law: Now. Or right to DH. He’s not going to be very good at first, given his size and conditioning.

Chris: What 60 man pool interests you the most?
Keith Law: I highlighted quite a few teams that stuffed their 60-man rosters with prospects – the Padres were one, the White Sox another. If I could go to watch the Yankees satellite camp (no media or scouts allowed, alas) I’d be there a bunch.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for your questions, as always. Please be safe this holiday weekend, on the roads and out and about. Wear your masks, avoid enclosed spaces, stay out of bars, wash your hands. The last thing the country or MLB needs is a big surge in cases after this weekend because people got pandemic fatigue and stopped taking basic precautions. Stay safe everyone.