Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest piece for The Athletic subscribers looks at how player development execs are working with minor leaguers who won’t play games this year. I also reviewed the new board game Santa Monica for Paste.
Keith Law: Delivered by mortal hands. Klawchat.
Casey: Should the Dylan Carlson be starting immediately in the Cardinals outfield with such a short season?
Keith Law: I think so. Who’s the clearly better option?
Ben: With the 60-player pool, it sounds like the plan is to just anticipate a lot positive tests and play through them while those that test positive quarantine. Is that your understanding too? Do you see a scenario where they end the season, other than the virus simply getting out of control and preventing teams from even fielding enough players?
Keith Law: I do not think that’s the plan – I think the 60 player roster is to account for typical baseball injuries, bereavement, etc. If there are a lot of positive tests I would expect a halt to the season.
BVW: Do you like my draft strategy from the last 2 years? I like a few high upside guys with lesser talent rather than solid guys across the board.
Keith Law: I like the Mets’ draft strategy for the last several years. I don’t think that is Brodie’s strategy.
Mike: How much of the acrimonious public negotiation between MLB and the players was because of a desire to bust the union once and for all?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few places – I think MLB wanted to set the tone for the 2021 CBA talks by pursuing a hard line in these negotiations as well as those with MILB and the umpires’ union.
Keith Law: It’s a credible commitment strategy. The union, to their credit, did not blink.
Brandon J.: Hey Keith, do you think that Clayton Beeter has the ceiling of a Lugo/Pressly type reliever? Or do you think he has a higher ceiling if healthy?
Keith Law: Starter ceiling. Just higher risk with the delivery, one injury, lack of a definite third pitch.
Todd Boss: So, elephant in the room, but with a third of all MLB teams already having players test positive before we’ve even started “spring training,” with Toronto banned from traveling to its home stadium, and with cases exploding in the two ST states … who actually believes we’re gonna play baseball??
Keith Law: The optimistic take on this is that those positive tests came with players working out essentially on their own rather than under the health and safety protocols from the new agreement.
Todd Boss: So post-draft, is there any evidence that a team “punted” on the 2020 draft like some were worried about?
Keith Law: Nope. That story did not check out even before the draft.
Steve: Hey Keith, have you heard any buzz on draft picks that you’re concerned might NOT sign with their team?
Keith Law: None. I expect them all to sign unless they fail physicals. Jim Callis tweeted the same thing yesterday.
John: With the introduction of the new extra inning rule placing a runner on second base to start the inning, how do you feel about bunting him over to third to start the frame? I know you have had a strong stance against bunting before, but does this change it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s good strategy for the visiting club, since the home team gets the same starting position.
Mike B: Is this chat mask-optional?
Keith Law: Masks are required. In all seriousness, I’m blocking anyone who tries to make anti-mask arguments to me on Twitter. Go do your science denial somewhere else.
Mr. Met: The last two drafts, it appears the Mets strategy has been to draft high end prospects early then money-savers the rest of the way to meet the bonus demands. Do you like this strategy?
Keith Law: Yes, especially for a team like that Mets that should, at least in theory, operate as a large-market club.
Joe: Any undrafted signings stand out to you as maybe being more than just filler?
Keith Law: Not really. $20K doesn’t get you a definite prospect. There were some good senior signs, though – Landon Knack (Dodgers, second round) stood out as one.
Todd Boss: how are players planning on even getting back into the country if they’re from the DR or Venezuela right now? Isn’t there a travel ban on all “sh*thole” countries like theirs?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t the players be more concerned that after three months in the US they won’t be allowed back home? The EU appears set to ban us from travelling there, and they’re right to do so.
Guest: Which of the 2020 first round picks are most likely to see mlb action in a short season ? Relievers seem most likely or SPs who can just air it out for an inning.
Keith Law: Max Meyer stands out.
Joe: Fair to be disappointed with the Orioles draft haul? They had the most money but didn’t get any elite guys.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it. They saved money on Kjerstad but passed on the best available HS players, and other teams’ scouts really panned the Mayo pick to me (as an overslot candidate).
Tom: What are the odds we look back in a few years and wonder how Blaze Jordan lasted so far into the draft?
Keith Law: 1%. He’s just nowhere near the prospect the Internet proclaimed him to be.
Ben: Is it there a chance Torkelson debuts late this summer? Would that be ill-advised?
Keith Law: My guess is no, because the Tigers are unlikely contenders, but I wouldn’t call it ill-advised.
Tommy: What is the actual science right this moment regarding masks? It seems like there’s no consensus, yet everyone is still advocating for them, so maybe I’m just reading too many comment sections.
Keith Law: Using a mask drastically reduces your odds of spreading the virus if you have it. If everyone used masks, we’d be in far better position now than we are – we’d be where Italy and Spain and other countries that actually enforced mask-wearing and physical distancing are. The economy would be mostly open, and we wouldn’t have surges and increasing deaths.
Keith Law: There is NO argument against masks, except for “I have a tiny brain and don’t care about other people.”
TomBruno23: What would it take to get you to attend an MLB game this summer?
Keith Law: For work, yes, I expect to go. As a fan, I would not.
Jason: What’s the point of Bolton coming out now and saying the President is incompetent and corrupt. Should he have done more or is he a coward just like everyone else? Or is it just about the 2 million from his book deal.
Keith Law: Filthy lucre.
Ben Davis Bunts: What are the chance the Padres sign Wilcox?
Keith Law: Barring a failed physical, 100%.
Mike: Am I wrong for thinking that most sports should just shut it down for the season & start from fresh next season? I’m concerned that we will now have difficulties with at least 2 seasons instead of just writing off this season.
Keith Law: I am of the opinion that it is worth making the effort, with proper protocols in place, even knowing that there is a 50% or greater chance we fail to complete a season. However, I am very open to the idea that we shouldn’t try at all, because doing so creates risks I’m not foreseeing.
John: Will teams have to use player options to move them between the active roster and taxi squad?
Keith Law: I just re-read the manual; it says that all optioned players will be treated as assigned to the alternate-site roster, which is the converse, but I infer from that that a player sent from the active roster to the satellite roster must be optioned. The taxi squad refers to up to three players brought to the major-league stadium as emergency replacements but not actually on the active roster.
Mike: I get that Manfred works for the owners, but do the owners not see they are all hurting the game with their stance. It’s probably wrong to be playing at all, but if they are going to play it should have already started when no other major sports were out there.
Keith Law: I don’t think the owners in that camp care. I think they’re wrong, and are underestimating the elasticity of demand as well as how vulnerable the capital appreciation of their team values is.
Turlock Tom: The buzz surrounding Tyler Soderstrom seemed a bit overinflated prior to the draft. Do you think going #26 is about the right range for him?
Keith Law: I do.
Arnold: Best post-draft signing by the Giants?
Keith Law: None. As I said above, you’re not getting players we already know to be prospects for $20K. Some may turn into prospects in time, but they’re not right now.
Mike: There were only 133 news cases in Italy yesterday. We are legit the dumbest country in the world
Keith Law: My cousins live there, and I’ve been several times. Italy is hardly the exemplar of a compliant, rule-following culture. Yet they did it, and they beat this thing back enough to resume something resembling normal life. Our current state in the US is our fault, from the leaders we elected to the tolerance we’ve had for those who act only in their own self-interest or who believe whatever they read on Reddit or Facebook about deepstate conspiracies to reduce your oxygen intake.
Bighen: Truly no agenda here but a lot of people outside the game talk about how awash it is in cash. Several sources (including the NY Times) have stated that the Mets have lost $50M in certain seasons and might lose $100M+ this season. I realize that there is SNY shenanigans going on, but SNY can’t generate enough cash to offset a loss like that – revenue yes, actual profits no. Where is the disconnect? I am really just a Mets fan that wants to be rid of the Wilpons ASAP. Valuation <> cash flow
Keith Law: Yes, SNY absolutely can, especially since they’re (likely) paying a pittance for those broadcast rights.
Ken: A couple weeks old now, but: JK Rowling, why?
Keith Law: Very disappointing. She’s hinted at this before – and, let’s face it, retconning Dumbledore as a gay character was pretty weak when she absolutely could have revealed this in books 6 or 7 and nobody would have stopped her – but for her to lay bare her transphobia like that was extremely disappointing.
TomBruno23: Balancing safety concerns and the need to keep my wife and children sane we have booked a week-long trip to Holland, MI for the end of July. Private home, etc etc blah blah blah. How dumb am I?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s dumb. Michigan is among the leading states in their response to the virus – their Rt is extremely low, they’re testing adequately, and their contact tracing rate is about 75% already. If they continue on this track, I think it’d be safe to go there in late July. Then it’s a matter of what you do yourselves once there – avoiding crowds, wearing masks, etc.
addoeh: “Kung Flu”. I hope there aren’t a lot of kids of Asian descent, like my son, who get called that in the fall because the President said it.
Keith Law: It is fucking gross that our President says it and his toadies defend it. I never thought I’d see the day when a U.S. President was openly racist like that and a third of the country shrugged. Even when I was a kid, our leaders were good enough to keep their racism subtle.
J5: Should KeBryan Hayes be starting immediately?
Keith Law: I think so.
Guest: How many times do you think we’ll see this in extra innings: Bunt the runner to third followed by two intentional walks to set up a force at home? I hope never but…
Keith Law: Many times.
BK: I couldn’t believe that a former GM on MLB radio questioned the Giants for drafting Bailey in the first round because they had drafted Bart high 2 years ago. How silly is the idea of drafting for needs in the MLB draft? If Bailey is the best player on the Gaints’ board, then the pick is perfectly defensible…do you agree?
Keith Law: I have a guess at that former GM and I’d say consider the source.
Keith Law: Also, Bart has already had multiple injuries that might impact the Giants’ internal projections for him staying at C.
Mike: Can you explain how athleticism helps a pitcher with their delivery? I heard that discussed with one of the picks and don’t really get it
Keith Law: The better the athlete, the better he can repeat any series of movements – a delivery, a swing, an arm stroke – which, for pitchers, appears to be positively correlated with command.
Dave: How long of a look does Tork get at 3B before ultimately moving back to 1B? or do you think he can actually stick at 3B long term?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 1b.
Ben: What do you make of Fauci’s “necessary lie” early on in the pandemic that mask’s weren’t necessary for average people (in order to preserve the supply for medical professionals)? The ends may have justified the means, but I did lose a level of trust (and resisted masks earlier on as a result)
Keith Law: Look at the harm it did. Some people still use this as a reason to disbelieve Fauci and/or the government.
Adam: Do you expect Adley Rutschman to see time this year?
Keith Law: No.
Dave: Do you expect to see Gore and Pearson on OD rosters?
Keith Law: No but I think both will appear.
Greg: So… My wife and I are lucky enough to be comfortably middle class. I lost my job, but we’re getting by, and actually donating more money and tipping service people more than usual, given the circumstance. This isn’t any sort of brag, but just saying WTF BASEBALL OWNERS!? The terrible bar by my house has figured out how to stay open and safe and keep people employed. Are we to believe baseball ownership runs on such paper-thin margins as the third-best falafel restaurant in town?
Keith Law: That’s what they want us to believe, but they have lied about their profits for at least forty years now, so why should we accept their statements now when they won’t open their books to anyone?
Andrew Brotherton: What do you think will be done about the minor league season? Some sort of super AZFL? An instructional league? A taxi-squad league?
Keith Law: The most likely answer is none. I don’t expect any minor league game action this year.
Ben: The A’s acknowledged that Jeff Criswell’s delivery needs to be cleaned up in order for him to project as a starter. Do you agree with that assessment and are you optimistic that Oakland can do that given their player/pitcher development history?
Keith Law: I do agree. I don’t think it’s that easy to do.
Tom: Growing up in the 80s and 90s, I used to really believe that it didn’t matter who the president was. But now… not being hyperbolic: Has there been an American president, even fiction, who’s done more tangible harm to a greater number of people, not just in the US but around the world?
Keith Law: Not in my lifetime.
Keith Law: Buzz Windrip is close, though.
Rick: A co-worker I’m around a lot tested positive for COVID-19, so now I’m on day 2 of my 14 day quarantine. I’m participating in your chat to help me get through my boredom. Can I get a shout out for being a good person and not going out and putting others at risk?
Keith Law: Indeed. Sorry for the tough break, though.
Tommy: Again, not questioning, just genuinely curious, but there’s nothing about masks and building immunity against the virus?
Keith Law: No. People pushing ‘immunity’ as a counterargument to masks are doing so without facts to back them up – we still don’t know what kind of immunity people who are infected have against future reinfection.
Keith Law: There’s an assumption – because science education in the US largely sucks – that if you get a virus once, you can’t get it a second time. That’s obviously not true with the common cold or the flu, but for whatever reason there are who people who assume this is true of COVID-19, and we do not know that.
Rob: Finally saw Knives Out now that it is streaming free. As someone who has tried and failed to read it twice, the Gravity’s Rainbow joke had me rolling. Any advice for getting through books that are particularly tough reads?
Keith Law: I try to set reasonable per-day reading goals (e.g., 40 pages), and go into it knowing it’ll take me, say, three weeks to finish the book. That makes it more mentally manageable, and I don’t end up procrastinating.
Keith Law: That said, Gravity’s Rainbow is not worth your time.
Dave C: Do u think teams will run milb camps out of their Dominican camps and/or minor league affiliates?
Keith Law: No. There are multiple reasons why not.
Matt: I’m a 44 year old white guy. Yesterday I got pulled over for a broken taillight. Cop frisked me, asked if I had drugs and demanded he search my car. I refused and he called K9. K9 sniffed my car for 5 minutes and both let me go. I’m a stereotypical white dude with a pickup truck. I can’t even imagine what might have happened if I was a POC. Cops have way too much power. Something needs to be done.
Keith Law: We need a paradigm shift. I don’t like the phrase “defund the police” because I don’t think that’s the solution. Demilitarize the police. Shift to community policing models. Change hiring practices. But you’re never getting a majority of people to buy into a model with no police.
Jon: I read that Ed Howard was a possible Top 5 pick but for the HS season being entirely halted and therefore nobody seeing him play this year and a result was a lot of college prospects instead. Any truth to that or just Cubs homer-talk? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Extreme homer talk. Arrant nonsense.
Alex: I can’t believe there haven’t been any Braves prospect questions so… has the ship sailed on Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson as starters? The 60-game season makes it hard to work in these kind of bubble players. Are they change of scenery guys?
Keith Law: Jeez, why are you giving up on them so quickly?
Doug: Would you rather have Hassell/Wilcox or Veen and an underslot 3rd rounder?
Keith Law: Hassell/Wilcox.
Brian: Quick math for the herd immunity crowd. The CDC estimates 70% of the population would need to have recovered from COVID-19 to get us there (assuming you’re permanently immune). That equates to roughly 200 million US citizens. At a death rate of .4% (which seems to be the bare minimum), you’d need to be okay with 800,000 deaths.
Keith Law: Well, there’s a pretty significant portion of the GOP that is okay with that.
Doug: Is WAR going to be adjusted based on the short season? Wouldn’t homers and strikeouts this year be worth 3 times more than a previous year?
Keith Law: No. You’ll just see WAR leaders of about 3-4 this year.
Dave C: any Idea how service time will work for shuttle team? Actually days on active roster?
Keith Law: I believe that’s correct.
Mattey: How do you think Utley will fare on first Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: I’m just hopeful he’ll get the 5% to stay on it.
Guest: I just wanted to let you know that I really enjoy your work and for your reasoned opinions on a host of issues in addition to baseball. I don’t always agree with you, but I respect that your opinions are based on reason and conviction. Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate that.
Nick: I don’t read as much as I’d prefer, and when I do I have a bad habit of choosing dense literary masterpieces. They’re great, but very time consuming. Any advice on authors/genres that are better to build a constructive habit?
Keith Law: There are plenty of literary masterpieces that are on the shorter side – you may find you enjoy those, and still get the psychic value of reading such acknowledged classics, with less effort.
Dave C: When’s the last time u were as surprised during the draft as the Sox taking Nick York’s this year?
Keith Law: Hayden Simpson.
JP: So NASCAR released a photo of the noose in Bubba Wallace’s garage – and now all the pedants are out in full force – “AKSHUALLY, that’s not technically a noose!” I swear these are the same guys that love pointing out that “assault rifle” is not a real legal phrase after every school shooting. “Who gets to decide what an assault rifle is?!”
Keith Law: I mean, I suppose you can argue it wasn’t put there just then … but the word for that type of knot is a noose.
Chris: I think every post-draft analysis of a draft pick not taken in the top 10 is “if there was a full season, this guy could have been a top 10 pick, so this could be a steal”… for some reason, reading every writer/blogger of every team say that bugs me lol
Keith Law: It should bug you because it’s a fabrication.
Jabroni: Did you like the WS strategy of going big with picks 1&2 then punting 3,4 and 5?
Keith Law: I liked the strategy but not specifically those picks. I would have targeted other players with the same plan.
Todd: Do you trust the polls at all that show Biden comfortably ahead? How possible is it Biden wins the popular vote greater than Hillary did but loses the electoral college?
Keith Law: It’s going to come down to 3-4 states, no? Whoever wins PA, OH, MI, WI wins the election. I would guess most other states are locked up already.
Pat D: Disney is apparently going to re-design Splash Mountain. I’m genuinely shocked. Any thoughts on this pretty insignificant development?
Keith Law: I was just on that ride in December. It’s a little cringey. There’s nothing overtly racist about it, but if you know the genesis of the stories (or the movie based on them), you know what’s going on.
Keith Law: I’ll be sad if “Zip-a-dee-doo-dah” is gone, though. I loved that song when I was a kid.
Matt: If the batting leader at end of the year has something like a .517 batting average, will it count in record book for highest batting average of all time?
Keith Law: That’s not happening. Someone could hit .400, though, and I would argue that it shouldn’t be considered on the same level as Bill Terry/Ted Williams … but that we should also enjoy it for what it is. If Trout comes out hot and is hitting .400+ going into the last week, let’s make it a thing. Embrace the weirdness of the short season.
NL: I hate the DH, but understand the argument at least for this year. My question is why we worry about pitchers getting hurt running the bases. Seriously? An athlete running?
Keith Law: How about the part where pitchers are not good at hitting? This isn’t 1955. Pitchers are so much better today at pitching that asking them to hit when they get little time to practice and only face live pitching themselves every fifth day if that is a bit absurd.
Tyler: is Trump vs Joe “Weekend at Bernie’s” Biden the worst candidates to vote from in US history? it’s even worse than Trump/Hillary, where I refused to vote for either. I’m afraid I’ll do the same this year.
Keith Law: Check your privilege, Tyler. There is too much riding on this election to sit it out, even if you think it doesn’t affect you.
addoeh: Biden could win with Clinton states + FL and either AZ or NC. He has more paths than just the Midwest route.
Keith Law: I guess that’s true, especially with Arizona and NC in COVID death spirals right now. I’m shocked there isn’t more of an effort to recall Ducey in AZ – the only recall effort I could find was from people arguing in April that he shouldn’t have locked down at all!
Dave C: Thoughts on the schedule this year? Seems weird that 1/3 of ur games are against teams that you aren’t competing against in ur League
Keith Law: I’m trying to just accept the weirdness for what it is. Getting worked up over details when the real goal is just to have a full season without anyone getting sick seems silly.
Sammy So-so: If Tyler Soderstrom doesn’t stick at catcher, does he still have the ceiling of an everyday player? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes but he’ll need a position. Third base is at least the next stop.
Jason: How is drinking a cup of water or walking down a ramp considered newsworthy in 2020?
Keith Law: And it gets him praised as the “best president ever!” by the sycophants.
Tyler: “Check my privilege?” You know nothing about me. I am not white or rich, so what is my “privilege?” All I know is when Biden was with Obama, all I got out of their presidency was losing my health insurance (that I was told I’d be able to keep) and am now paying about $200+ more a month than I did before their presidency.
Keith Law: I know that you have enough privilege to think about sitting out what is almost certainly the most important US election since the 1930s.
Gus: Is Bohm the Phillies opening day DH?
Keith Law: If Bohm makes the OD roster, Hoskins should be the DH.
John: Two drafts with really awful picks (besides the obvious with Rutschman) for Mike Elias. Time for O’s fans to worry about the direction?
Keith Law: I do not agree that they’ve had “awful” picks.
Keith Law: That’s an overreaction, at the least.
Howie: Hi Klaw, unless the value of a MLB franchise takes a hit due to pandemic owners should be able to get financing to mitigate short term cash flow concerns. Where I see this going though is the free agent market is much softer, concerns about collusion result in another work stoppage. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Free agent market will probably be softer for mid-tier FA and below. I don’t think that leads to collusion claims.
Jabroni: 88 days after the March agreement the owners finally agreed it was an agreement?? What the hell??
Keith Law: This is better framing than the bothsidesism I’m seeing everywhere. The owners spent 12 weeks trying to avoid the terms of the agreement they’d accepted in March, and ended up adhering to the agreement when the players said they expected the owners to live up to what they’d signed.
Ben: The “if you like your insurance you can keep it” line was was a commitment that Obamacare wouldn’t require any existing plans to fold. Which it didn’t.
Keith Law: Yes, and if you want insurance or health care to cost less, you’re going to have to choose an entirely different model than the current one.
Pat D: To everyone complaining about not having a better choice than Biden: do you really want Trump making a couple hundred more judicial appointments that will re-shape laws for the next 20-40 years? I hope you don’t care about voting rights, abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, government transparency, checks on presidential power……do I need to go on?
Keith Law: Environmental laws. Or handling the next pandemic.
Nick: How would you compare Robert Hassell to Jarred Kelenic coming out of high school?
Keith Law: Kelenic was the clearly better prospect.
Pat: I don’t see how MLB is going to pull this off without doing a bubble like the NBA is doing. So many health variables with the way they’ve chosen to do it
Keith Law: I guess the counterargument is that the NBA’s bubble increases the odds of a bigger outbreak if one person gets sick, no?
TomBruno23: My draft-crazy friend, let’s call him Baby Foley, keeps telling me the Cardinals really scored with Ian Bedell. We read your recap on The Athletic about his back-end starter potential. Anything else to add?
Keith Law: No, nothing more. That’s what he is.
J5: Which starter will break out this year to a top of rotation starter? Plesac? Ross? Others?
Keith Law: I’ll do some kind of breakouts piece in July, although it’ll obviously be a bit different than normal.
Dave C: If Marcus Stroman has a typical year how much would a qualifying offer ruin his Free Agent market?
Keith Law: He’d be near the top end of the market and I don’t think it’ll affect him. Mid-tier FA get killed by the comp picks.
Joe: Keith: Did this recent nonsense increase or decrease the odds of a work stoppage down the line?
Keith Law: It didn’t alter the odds, but made it clear that the odds were higher than we realized they were.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. Stay safe everyone, and please, wear a mask, even if your little corner of the internet tells you otherwise. Do it for the elderly, the immune-compromised, the high-risk, even if you don’t feel like doing it for your friends and your family.
Just one more reminder/plea about the presidential election for those that think we have two bad choices:
The ONLY thing that’s kept Trump from being even worse (which seems hard to believe) is that he still has another election. Can you IMAGINE what a second term Trump would be like? Stephen Miller would be completely unleashed, another couple Supreme Court justices will be appointed, and maybe something like 300-400 federal judges. Not to mention the continuation of corruption, selling out the US to foreign interests, and setting up a post-presidency profit scheme the likes of which the world has never seen. He’ll steal all the drapes from the White House, count on its.
And theocracy would replace democracy. That’s assuming that you pray to the “right” god, of course.
There is nothing wrong with honestly analyzing the election and feeling we have two lousy candidates. It’s a fair assessment that I think many Americans agree with. I have no idea why a condescending “check your privilege” response is something anyone would think is appropriate to someone evaluating the relative merit of these candidates.
Sadly, we’ve had this problem for the last two elections. Leading up to last election, I had a conversation with a 19 year old and talked up how exciting it was to participate in her first election. She rolled her eyes, gave a laugh that was somehow both rueful and derogatory, and said “yeah, great, my first ever vote, Hillary or Trump, I can’t wait”. She was not excited, she was disappointed, and I realized she was right to feel that way.
I think a lot of people, me included, just wish for the recent past when we had at least one, if not two, very legitimate choices for President, like Romney and Obama. Hell, thinking back to the election four years earlier than that, McCain might be a better candidate right now, and he’s dead.
@Drew Nothing wrong with wishing we had more “legitimate choices” for President. But summarizing Trump and Biden as “two lousy candidates” is ridiculously over-simplifying the situation.
There are degrees of bad here, and no matter what you think of Biden, I can’t understand any argument that puts him at the same level of bad as Trump. Even if you believe all of the worst allegations against him.
In re sitting out the election — the “check your privilege” flow chart should read “if none found, then reassess your logic”. I’m a Jesse Jackson/Nader/Bernie voter, and all Biden needs to do to have my support is take a daily selfie while holding that day’s newspaper until 11/3.
And I’m a McCain, Bush (the elder), and Romney voter who may never again agree with sansho1, but who will vote Biden even if he is only mostly dead.
Defund != Abolish. Some people are equating those two but that’s not what I’ve seen from most activists. You can even read what the phrase means on Ben and Jerrys website! The police model you want sounds like what is described here. https://www.benjerry.com/whats-new/2020/06/defund-the-police
I’ll only disagree with the Klaw assessment of Gravity’s Rainbow enough to say that the first four sentences are a perfectly ominous opening to a novel and definitely worth your time. After that, stop reading.
w/r/t the “check your privilige” comment, this headline really says it all. You don’t have to convince people like you; you have to convince others who increasingly don’t see an option that will fight for them
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/09/nonvoters-are-not-privileged-they-are-largely-lower-income-non-white-and-dissatisfied-with-the-two-parties/
That article argues that these non-voters are ignorant. There are clear, tangible differences between the two parties when it comes to policies around income inequality, environmental racism, affirmative action, and many other subjects that would affect nonwhite, low-income voters. That’s even true with Biden as the nominee, even though he was one of the least progressive options, because the current Republican Party is pushing such regressive policies.
I do not see where the article makes the claim nonvoters are ignorant. What I see is this:
“The interviews the paper conducted with African Americans and other poor residents of Milwaukee who chose not to vote were illuminating. They overwhelmingly said they did not regret their choice, even knowing Trump won, because they do not believe that the outcome of elections improves their lives, and do not believe that a victory by the Democratic Party would be meaningful for them. One Milwaukee barber, Cedric Fleming, said in a quote that was representative of the survey: “I don’t feel bad. Milwaukee is tired. Both of them [Clinton and Trump] were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.”
From your (and my) vantage point, sure, Biden is the clear option. But income inequality got worse under Obama as he bailed out the banks and not homeowners, Biden’s climate plan is nothing close to what we need to avoid disaster, and affirmative action doesn’t really do anything for those outside the professional class. And there’s just no indication Biden and his team have done the work to try to change nonvoters’ minds. Regardless, he’ll probably win this election because Trump is such an obvious disaster. But if Biden (or his successor) don’t make an earnest effort to make a meaningful, tangible difference for the less priviliged, 2024 could be ugly.
Ideals are wonderful things. I voted for Bernie in two primaries, one where the result wasn’t yet assured, and one where it was. But I still voted for Bernie because he was my preferred choice.
But if there’s one thing that should be painfully obvious from the elections of Dubya and Trump is that elections have consequences. Unfortunately we pretty much have a binary election system. Yes, there are “third-party candidates,” but not really. None of them have an actual chance. Would I like to see this change? Absofreakinglutely. But that’s not going to chance this year. So voting for Biden becomes a must for me. Do I think Biden will enact wonderful policies and become an inspiring figure for generations to come? No, not even close. But I think he’ll do the job competently and won’t destroy the country as he tries to enrich himself. I know that’s a pathetically low, pathetically ridiculous bar to clear, but that’s where Trump has put it.
Trump has to go for the sake of not just the country, but the world.
For anyone who is opposed to the term “defund the police”, please keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that people are advocating for the complete elimination of police departments*. By and large, it means diverting funds from police budgets to people better trained to deal with problems that we’ve sent police to. There’s a pretty good explanation here:
https://www.thecut.com/2020/06/what-does-defund-the-police-mean-the-phrase-explained.html
Thanks all.
* I’ll acknowledge that some police abolitionists are advocating for that, but that isn’t what the broad movement is asking for.
“Defund” is poor branding for such a hot-button issue, regardless of what is meant by it. It sounds like an absolute.
@sansho1 understood, but what organizers want to point out is the need to divert resources away from police departments and toward people who are better suited to handle tasks that we’ve just assigned to police like dealing with homelessness or mental illness. Trying to reform a police department by hiring social workers for these tasks makes less sense than just giving this funding to organizations that know how to interact with these populations without harming them (as an example, a social worker would lose their license if they physically assault a client). I’d also argue that part of the goal is to point out the need to radically change how we think about policing.
“How is drinking a cup of water or walking down a ramp considered newsworthy in 2020?” It’s not. The complete inability of our President to do such things and his obvious frailty is newsworthy though. His health can and should be a topic of discussion.
He’s the one who made it newsworthy by taking so much time trying to explain away both of them. No one would even remember it if he never referenced it after it happened.
Trump turned this into *a thing* because, amongst his other bigotries, Trump is an ableist. This was apparent early on during his mocking of a reporter’s disability and his disgusting “something’s wrong with Hillary” campaign (which they are continuing with Biden). Thus, when people point out Trump’s potential frailties, he cannot let it go.
And to be clear, I think it’s ableist and wrong to go after Trump for any potential disabilities or frailties that have minimal effect on whether a President can do their job (i.e. walking and drinking with one hand). Trump’s character deficiencies and willful ignorance are more than fair game.
Don’t forget about Trump not wanting ugly Braille in his elevators to satisfy requirements of the ADA. A douchebag from day one.
“All I know is when Biden was with Obama, all I got out of their presidency was losing my health insurance (that I was told I’d be able to keep) and am now paying about $200+ more a month than I did before their presidency.”
Funny for several reasons, but at the forefront is this: there’s a guy who thinks the election is about what he gets and has literally zero regard or empathy for 330+ million of his fellow citizens. You can’t make this stuff up. You’re my new favorite comedian, Tyler.
You’re preaching empathy and yet sneering at a guy who has to pay thousands more for his healthcare.
We’re sneering at his bad math, Mike. Health care costs rose more slowly under Obama than they did under his predecessor. They still rose, and continue to rise, beyond the rate of inflation; medical costs have roughly doubled since 2008, so Tyler’s comment would imply that he was only paying about $2500/year for health insurance in 2008, or that he doesn’t understand that he’s fared better than most Americans with just a $200+ monthly increase.
As for M4A, that isn’t the only proposed or possible solution to our health care crisis. I wish Biden supported it, because I think that’s the right starting framework at this point (as opposed to patching the status quo), but M4A has drawbacks as well, and his refusal to support it isn’t the same as “not taking it seriously.”
Healthcare costs had been increasing well before ACA, so blaming Obamacare is wrong. And now the current administration wants the Supreme Court to kill the legislation once and for all in the middle of a pandemic. So you have one candidate that wants to address the problem and one that doesn’t give a shit.
Also, let’s be honest, Tyler was totally lying about not being white.
Suddenly it’s okay to doubt someone’s identity because we dislike their ideas? This is a gross comment, Brian.
Agreed Kazzy.
We’re in the midst of a pandemic where tens of millions have lost their jobs and thus their healthcare. As such, our market-based, employer-based healthcare system is literally exacerbating the problem. In light of this, I don’t consider anyone who wants to continue this system to be serious about actually providing healthcare to the people.
More to the point, yes healthcare costs continue to rise under the ACA. Also ~30 million still have no coverage and millions other have effectively useless coverage. And many of those that do have “good” coverage are tied to the whims of their employer, Anyone in a position of power who wants to continue this system is complicit in the injury and death that stems from inadequate healthcare.
It was a tongue in cheek. I apologize that it didn’t come off that way.
Having said that, only a white person could have that kind of privilege and not realize it. Yep, he’s totally white.
I didn’t really think about Tyler’s race, only that if someone thinks the outcome of the next election doesn’t matter to them to the point that they’d consider sitting out the process, they have some degree of privilege that insulates them from the consequences.
Privilege (racial or otherwise) is one possible explanation. But so too is despair. There are many folks in this country who understandably, justifiably, and possibly even correctly feel like they get screwed no matter who wins. Now, maybe we could show data or evidence that they’re screwed less by one winner than the other. But I can’t really blame folks who think, “Screwed is screwed.”
I mean, how would you respond to a Black person who opts not to vote because they see Trump tweeting white power videos but also know their loved ones went to prison for too long due to Biden’s crime bill? Is there objection rooted in privilege?
Not sure how serious Biden is about addressing the problem: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/biden-says-he-wouldd-veto-medicare-for-all-as-coronavirus-focuses-attention-on-health.html
Wish all those rioters and protesters would have checked their privilege and wore some masks.
For the most part, they did.
Keith, are you concerned Biden is senile or at least showing signs of mental decline? Regardless of your answer my auto-response is check your privilege.
Seriously? The most slobbering of kneepad artists, on the friendliest of networks, teed up the easiest of softballs last night when he asked Trump about his top priority for his second term. This was the response: “Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know, the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an, a very important meaning. I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our first lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington, it wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now, I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”
@hogan – I think it fair to be concerned that data suggests electing someone who will be 78 before inauguration is electing someone with a high likelihood of declining mental abilities. But the alternative is electing someone else who is also in the same age group and is already showing significant mental defects plus personal graft & corruption, plus a disdain for the rule of law, plus an entire political career built on division and hatred. There are no real third choices here. Old vs. old plus bad makes for an easy choice.
I find that most of the *concern* for Biden’s mental acuity comes from conservatives who are ignoring Trump’s deficiencies. It’s fair to be concerned for both, but not for one and not the other.
Concern trolls are the worst, just rock bottom. At least they’re easy to spot.
Hogan is no hero.
Would someone please help me understand this:
If the argument that “if you’re not voting for Biden, then you’re voting for Trump” is true, then why isn’t the converse true? Not voting for Trump would be voting for Biden, right? I’m not currently planning on voting for either using this logic. However, if someone can explain to me why that’s flawed logic or why I should vote in my deep red state anyway, I’ll gladly vote Biden.
1) Presumably there are more closely contested races on your ballot, so if voting is important to you you’ll have a ballot anyway.
2) Say Biden has a true polling lead of 55-45. If everyone votes, Biden’s chance of winning is 100%. If only one person votes, it’s 55%. Each uncast vote helps the opposite party, but the underdog needs the greater variance a low turnout would represent.
3) You’re not deciding, you’re helping decide. A blue vote in a red state (and vice versa) is an encouragement for politicians there to continue trying to appeal to you and your interests.
(I know, I’m ignoring the Electoral College in #2, but that is the general argument in re popular votes.)
I think most of the concern about Biden’s mental acuity comes from watching him try to form complete thoughts and speak.
All the while ignoring Trump’s inability to do the same, so concern trolling.
It would also be helpful just to lay out who your ideal candidate is, instead of beating around the bush with your biases.
You know he had a stutter when he was younger, right?
And all this fuss about this election is misplaced. The big one is 2024. GOP will reboot or try to figure out what blend of Trumpism vs. conservatism they will want to represent. The Democrats, assuming Biden wins, will pull his strings and hold serve, while the radical left positions themselves to run and win in 2024. Biden will not run again because he’ll be mentally unfit or won’t want to.
Oh C’mon. This election is inherently consequential regardless of your political preferences. Unless you think that no one should fuss over the next 4 years about at least one SCOTUS appointment, economic recovery and trade policies (including new visa restrictions), immigration, and so on.
Look at how divisive this country is. This 42-message chat exchange here is a perfect example.
T___p (I refuse to write his name) is one of the worst presidents and worst people ever. His incompetence and criminal actions and horrible character defects are astounding. Yet, the democrats are so bad at planning their own presidential campaigns that they lost to him in 2016, and then employed an almost identical strategy for 2020, with no long-tern solution for steering the party in the right direction.
If people in some states feel disenfranchised and have given up on the political process and don’t feel like voting, maybe the democrats should focus on what they’ve done to result in that angst and indifference instead of condescendingly lecturing these disenfranchised people by telling them “if you don’t vote for our flawed candidate that we shouldn’t have chosen in the first place, you’re a privileged scumbag and by not voting for Biden you’re voting for T___p.”
None of this is productive and none of it leads to long-term solutions. The democrats should be able to nominate a strong enough candidate that independents and third-party voters can vote their choice without being told they are costing Biden the election.
Dmitri, some of this is because our electoral rules quickly devolved into a 2-party system. Two large parties inherently have to cobble together diverse coalitions, so there will always be voters that feel like the major parties are ignoring their voices. If the Democrats nominated a progressive, that would decrease enthusiasm from the moderate wing of the party plus the centrist independents. IMO, there’s no way to nominate a strong enough candidate to overcome these intra-party divisions.
Keith, can you help me understand why I should pick a ‘great book’ that’s difficult to read, to the point that I have to strategize ways to get through it? If a book is that arduous, I feel like maybe I should be reading a different book. I’m not talking about a book I’m expecting to learn from, but rather a work of fiction that presumably I should be enjoying.
You might want to read something for its cultural or literary value; to understand references or allusions to it; or, as in my case more than once, to say you’ve read it or complete a list of books to read.
@sansho1
Thank you. I should’ve been more clear, for all non-local elections, I’m planning on voting straight Democrat for the first time in my life, but I was planning on leaving President blank.
” Each uncast vote helps the opposite party, but the underdog needs the greater variance a low turnout would represent.” I’m not sure I understand exactly what you’re saying here, but based on how I’m interpreting this, I’m not sure I agree. However, the rest of your argument makes enough sense to me that I’ll vote Biden, while also acknowledging that he’s by no means the candidate I would’ve preferred come out of the Democratic Party.
I apologize for the late response.
I have been following/reading Klaw for well over 15 years now and disagree with most if not all of his positions politically, but endure due to his wealth of knowledge in baseball. I would like to those readers of his who are inclined to have actual conversations with people who have opposing views. Keith will not do that. Keith ridicules and like a school child will just call people names and say it’s his chat/thread/post or whatever the forum is. It takes dialogue to get something accomplished and I truly like to see his readers actually discuss policies without ridicule or bashing or like Keith himself, name calling. 100% sure he won’t post this, but kudos to all you readers who actually discuss what is important even though you have differing views. Looking forward to the next 4 years.
Except I have these conversations with people (checks the history of this blog) all the time. If your only interest is in insulting me, Jon, feel free to avoid the comments section, as your comment here is not constructive.
“100% sure he won’t post this”
Your lack of confidence that Keith would post your comment ended up being correct, but still, even as a computer programmer, it is odd to see the binary numeral system used in this way.