Starting at noon ET. My latest mock draft is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my latest board game review, of Azul: Summer Pavilions, is now up at Paste. Don’t forget to check out my new book, The Inside Game, now out in hardcover!
Keith Law: I don’t come here for the exclusivity; I just come here for the view. Klawchat.
Guest: Every mock seems to connect the White Sox to Patrick Bailey. Is this well known throughout the industry or is everyone putting a round peg in a round hole?
Keith Law: I actually think it’s more the latter this time – he’d be the best college player on the board, they like him, catching is a weakness in the system anyway.
Dave: If an MLB owner is so cash strapped that he can’t pay his minor leaguers $400/week, it’s hard to make the argument that he has enough cash flow to remain an owner…
Keith Law: Right? Look who just furloughed scouts (ahead of the draft, FFS): the Angels, owned by Arte Moreno, net worth about $3 billion; and the A’s, majority owner John Fisher, net worth about $2 billion. Paying scouts an average of $40,000 for the half-year they might miss while furloughed would cost no more than $1 million; if these teams furloughed every employee making under $100K, we’d still be looking at under $10 million, total. That’s a rounding error to these owners. I don’t think any liberal Democrat could make a better argument for a wealth tax on billionaires than watching these owners squeeze blood from stones to protect the tenth digit in their personal fortunes.
Steve: As a hitter, how does Zac Veen compare to Riley Greene?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Greene was far more bat-first, Veen is more all-around athlete with a very different swing.
Paul: To Scherzer’s point about owner’s opening up their books – he’s right isn’t he? No one really knows how much teams are making despite all the numbers we see floating around out there.
Keith Law: He’s absolutely right. And owners will *never* open their books short of a court order.
Mark: Do you use tomato paste when making tomato sauce? Is there an advantage to this?I have found that when adding this ingredient , it is a bit overpowering, although I recently read that paste needs to be caramelized at the beginning.Curious as to your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never. That’s not necessary for any Italian tomato-based sauce I know. It is useful in many other dishes, though.
Mike: Keith, thanks for being a voice of sanity in an era where science is under attack and facts can be disregarded by literally tens of millions of “adults.” Did you happen to read Doug Glanville’s piece on your former employer’s site today? If so, I’m interested in your take.
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.
Darren: Hi Keith. Who is your guilty pleasure band or artist? The one that doesn’t have meaningful articulate lyrics or impressive instrumentals, just something in the music that hits you in the feels.
Keith Law: It’s more a genre – ’80s music, whether it’s earlier new wave or later hair metal, hits me right in the nostalgia.
Jon: Keith, a friend of mine who is undergoing chemo for cancer did yoga in the park with forty people, no masks, in North Carolina this weekend. Are we just asking for a second round sooner than later?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s inevitable – but it won’t always happen the same way, and some areas will get lucky and avoid a second surge, which will lead more truthers to say the lockdowns didn’t help.
Trey: Moving to Philly area for work soon (the job is based in center city philly), and wondering your take on buying a house in NJ, PA, or DE? Any recommendations? I only know the NJ suburb area (haddonfield). Married w/ 18 month toddler. Thanks!
Keith Law: Delaware offers by far the lowest cost of living, especially in taxes (no sales tax, much lower property taxes esp. than NJ), but our public schools here don’t measure up to those even right over the state line in Garnet Valley, PA. I do think Delaware is a great place to live, but many parents here choose charter or private schools because of the lower funding for public education.
Darren: Hi Keith. We are trying to debate when is the right time to have parents over for dinner and a hug. Older people clearly having more risk, but if both parties have been home with the exception of food shopping, are we near the time we can have dinner? Ignoring the Wisconsin bar patrons and Southern beach goers, of those trying to stay safe, are you ready to go see a family member for dinner without masks and a big hug? Thanks for all you do. stay safe.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t just yet – my parents and my partner’s parents are all old enough to be high-risk, and I think the virus itself is too prevalent in our county here for me to safely assume I’m not going to carry it.
Ben: When Smart Baseball came out I was working for a state court judge. I lent him a copy and he subsequently lent it to about 50% of the judges on the bench in our district (he lent it to so many judges that he lost track of where it was and I never got it back). I don’t work for him any more, but I gifted him a copy of the Inside Game and he plans to send it around the bench again. Just thought you should know of your outsized influence on the judicial branch of Minnesota.
Keith Law: Thank you. I suppose no sleazy ADA will be able to convict anyone on the basis of RBIs in Minnesota now.
Mark W: Hey Keith, given that the public is regularly informed about specific players salaries, wouldn’t it be fair for the print media to prinkle in owners’ salaries?
Keith Law: It’s not their salaries that matter but their actual profitability – and I don’t mean on an income statement that can be manipulated with transfer pricing or other accounting tomfoolery. Show me the cash flow and we can talk.
Ed Howard’s shoulder: Am i a concern or have my medical been shared?
Keith Law: Howard had a shoulder issue last summer, but obviously didn’t play this spring so we don’t really know if he’s still affected. I won’t share medical info on players even if I have it, unless MLB itself has made such information public. e
Deke: What’s the “social media executive order” gonna look like?
Keith Law: Don’t talk bad words about the Dear Leader?
Greg: Are there still worries over Hancock’s medicals that could cause him to fall beyond the top 4-5 picks? I’d read somewhere that he was supposed to be providing info to teams, but doesn’t that seem like a scary idea (giving teams medical info that could hurt your draft stock)?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard those worries at all, and also you’re more or less required to provide those medicals now. If you don’t submit to the MLB MRI program, for one example, the team that drafts you can simply walk away after your physical without even having to offer you the 40% minimum. The Rays did that two years ago with Drew Rasmussen when his post-draft physical revealed that he needed a second Tommy John (which I’m sure had nothing to do with Pat Casey running him out there for long starts just 12-13 months off the first operation).
Benchy: Ever think MLB and MLPA will agree to trading draft picks? Think this could inject some life into a mostly dull television event?
Keith Law: Yes, but we need an impetus of some sort – neither side has a strong incentive to push for it.
John: Have you broken quarantine?
Keith Law: We aren’t quarantined in Delaware – we’ve been asked to stay home and self-isolate except for essential tasks like getting food or medications. I haven’t left the house for any destination without a mask, and I haven’t gone anywhere I wasn’t supposed to go. I do think we have had a few too many stores open, and we’re reopening too soon, but I’ve obeyed the Governor’s orders.
Canada: Naive Canadian here. Trump “seems” like an immoral, unethical choice. It seems common sense not to vote for him but that was proved wrong in 2016. Do you think a lot of the supporters are people who turned a blind eye to his personality traits, unethical standards and arrogance for the sake of “economic” promise?
Keith Law: Or for the sake of conservative judges who might help end reproductive rights in this country. I think that remains a major, maybe the major, issue driving single-issue voters.
Tom: I see why you’ve done so, but Doesn’t completely disassociating with Trump supporters only widen the gap in our country? My strategy is to find any kind of common ground with them, even if we disagree on most issues
Keith Law: Hannah Gadsby’s rant on anti-vaxxers in Douglas also captures my feelings on nearly anyone who’d still vote for Trump this year: You can’t change a closed mind.
Mark: Toronto has around $8M in slot between their first two picks combined (pick 5 and 42), given the uncertainty of this year’s draft, do you see a scenario where it would make sense to try and get two top 20 ranked players at $4M each (pushing someone down the draft to pick 42), versus one player at $6.2M and one at $1.8M? Basically spreading out the risk with two higher end players. Or is the top end of the draft no doubt enough that the smart thing is take the best available at 5 and then see who you get at 42? I guess the downside would be the risk on missing out on the player you try and push down to pick 42. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Because the top of the draft is so strong, I think this might result in them getting less total talent. Now, they might go to the three college arms who’ll probably be there (Meyer, Detmers, Hancock) and say “whoever is first to take $5 million is our pick.” Then you still have plenty of room to go way over at 42, where there will still be some pretty damn good HS players available, and can even push past the $3 million I’ve allotted in this scenario by going under slot later.
Kevin: If the Orioles decide to try to save $ at the second pick and pass on Martin and Lacy, who are the best/most likely targets for them to do so?
Keith Law: I mentioned that one name in the mock today. He’s probably the best position player option in that scenario.
Guest: Where would Baek Ho Kang (KBO KTW) rank as an MLB prospect? He is the best hitter in KBO at 20….A 20 yo destroying high AAA players Isn’t paralleled anywhere on the globe. Right? ….call me crazy, but he is a top 10 MLB prospect to me.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t call you crazy, but you are mistaken. KBO is not equivalent to “high AAA.”
Chris: Damn Enter Key… Request for any further mocks: please, please link in the overview to your top draft prospect write-up. Would make reading up on these guys easier.
Keith Law: My updated ranking is not posted yet.
Kevin: Can you recommend any dishes for which dried beans are especially well suited? I panic-snagged a bunch (red, cannellini, black) at the grocery store this week and I’m a bit stumped.
Keith Law: I’ve made the Ottolenghi gigli with chickpeas recipe that you could make with dried beans you’ve soaked and cooked beforehand. The NY Times is obsessed with beans right now – they did a cheesy white bean-tomato bake that is very easy and delicious, especially with some crusty bread or over rice. Just soak the dried beans overnight, then cook about two hours on a strong simmer (or try the instant pot!) before using.
P.K.: Father’s Day gift ideas for myself to make me a better griller/cooker/kitchen user?
Keith Law: My gift guide for cooks from last December might help – but I think cooking skill is less about tools and more about knowledge. For example, I think I learned more about cooking from watching Good Eats and reading Ruhlman’s Twenty than any other single sources.
Rich: What is your opinion on remote learning and if it were to continue for another year (or 1/2 year) starting in the fall? How much are our children being impacted in the long run?
Keith Law: It’s killing group-based projects and harming kids’ social development (I think … certainly not an expert here). But it seems like it might still be necessary in the fall.
Jim: Since you are a fan of 80’s music, wondering if you were a Queensrÿche fan? Not really metal but seems up your alley (and the messages hold up even today).
Keith Law: That is metal to me, at least, or to my teenaged self.
Eric: So Delaware has low taxes and a poor public education system? Weird.
Keith Law: Yes, that was my point. We underfund our schools. (There are a lot of people who think there’s too much waste in school administrations here, which drives voters to vote against budget overrides, but I don’t have nearly enough information to say whether that’s true. Should a school district’s superintendent make over $200K a year? People seem to get outraged at that raw figure, but I don’t think that is in and of itself a reasonable criticism.)
Patrick: With the extra home time, any new recipes or cooking techniques you are experimenting with? Broadening menu horizons with the family?
Keith Law: My partner has been using the Instant Pot a lot and I have been trying to learn it along with her (I used a pressure cooker for years, but this does seem easier if a bit smaller). I did decide a few weeks ago to try to make homemade English muffins for the first time, and now I can’t stop making them.
Clay: How likely is expansion in the next 5 years?
Keith Law: If the economy recovers enough to support it, I think it’s inevitable because owners will want that one-time cash infusion.
Chris: Do you think detmers has a chance to be anything better than a number 4 starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes. Could be an above league-average major league starter. I don’t think he could ever be an ace, just because his pure stuff isn’t there, but command like his can take you pretty far.
John: Hi Keith, it seems to mean many liberal politicians are missing an option on student loans. The power of compounding interest makes those loans very difficult. Its harder to pay $50k student loan than $50k car loan, can’t we just find a solution to lock interest while still paying the loan value. It would be less burden on tax payers but also ease some of the burden on borrowers
Keith Law: Is it wrong of me to not feel much concern for borrowers? Student loans are a racket. The ease with which people can borrow for education allows colleges to raise tuition far faster than the rate of inflation, and their nonprofit status somehow lets them do so without scrutiny as long as they spend that money on things like fancy new buildings. Kill student loans and the tuition bubble will pop.
Sad Baseball Fan: On a scale of 1-10, how optimistic are you of a season being played?
Keith Law: Maybe a 6. I tend to think when there’s this much money at stake that the two sides will find a solution.
Keith Law: Nobody has a financial incentive to cancel the season. They’d have to be forced to do so by outside circumstances.
Brian: What would be the biggest real reason for the owners not to let the players look at their books (a pretty fair trade off for anyone who is looking at a drastic pay cut)? Is it because they don’t want the players to how profitable they really are or is there potential chicanery with how certain revenue streams are classified?
Keith Law: Yes.
Darren: So considering your love for the 80s, have you starting showing your daughter John Hughes films? He helped make the 80s so amazing with movies and music. If so did you have an order of which ones first? Our boys have seen Home Alone so far, that’s it of his movies.
Keith Law: No, we’ve been hitting classic movies instead, and calling it an education.
Rom: Do you think Casey Martin’s hit tool can be improved through pro coaching/development? The rest of his skill set suggests that he has first round talent.
Keith Law: He’s not a first round talent. I don’t think he’s going to hit like he’d need to.
Turkey: Any recommendations for ground turkey? Wife and I are over meatballs and meat sauce with pasta.
Keith Law: Ground turkey works great in tacos if you make sure you use enough oil when cooking it and don’t overcook it. It’s too lean to just leave in the pan like you would ground beef/pork. Season it earlier … and that is a recipe for which you use tomato paste.
Moe Mentum: Since you’ve been ranking prospects, which actual 1-1 draft pick was furthest down on your own list?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s Moniak.
addoeh: How many owners are going to have to host bake sales, lemonade stands, and car washes this week so the can scrounge up enough money to pay their draft picks? Or will they just ask the government for a bailout?
Keith Law: Oh you know there will be a bailout. Some sort of “subsidy” to help restart baseball to increase public confidence or whatever.
Tar Heel: I haven’t seen Aaron Sabato as a projected 1st round pick except for you. Was that based on your intel from industry sources and do you think his skills merit a 1st round selection? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t have any players listed in this mock who weren’t mentioned to me as first-round candidates by industry sources.
Clay: Thoughts on keto? I’ve got about 60 lbs to lose and would like something that can help.
Keith Law: No fad diets for me. I don’t think they work and they’re not really based on science. It seems like the only real way to lose weight sustainably is to reduce your daily caloric intake and exercise more.
TheSloth: Have you streamed any of the Dinner & A Movie Phish shows?
Keith Law: A couple. We’ve missed the last few, this week because we did a Douglas viewing party. (I thought the first half was amusing, but not really funny, but when she started putting art up on the screen it was hilarious.)
Mason: Dillon Dingler slipping for you a bit?
Keith Law: No.
foolsgold: Why do conservative Americans mistrust science so much? Who is getting benefit from this?
Keith Law: If you read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money, you’ll get a good sense of who is funding the efforts to undermine our trust in science – and frankly that’s been helped by the centuries-long campaign by several organized religions to do the same. When science says that something in your sacred text is false (e.g., we know that all life on earth evolved from a single common ancestor), you attack the science, obviously.
Tanner Burns: Dear Keith did I say something to offend you and the other prospect writers? I seem to be falling off of your draft boards but I haven’t played baseball in months.
Keith Law: Falling off? No. If teams don’t seem likely to take a player in the first round, he won’t appear on my mock.
Jennifer: For the next six years, Dante Bichette Jr or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: I assume you meant Bo Bichette. I think both are stars. I’d probably take Lux though. Better defender.
Hank: If people in Delaware are concerned over a superintendent making $200k a year, they should avoid NYC suburbs, where ours makes double that, and in my opinion, is worth every penny.
Keith Law: My lay opinion is that if the schools are doing what I ask of them, I’m more than fine with paying higher taxes and seeing well-paid administrators.
Jim: Keith, on the English muffins, I especially recommend using sourdough discard. And do you d oven or griddle? Rings or free-form?
Keith Law: I don’t have a starter and don’t feel like dealing with one. I griddle them with rings.
Joe: Do you think Gore and/or Patino are already one of the Padres 5/6 best starters? With the Padres recent habits of ignoring service time concerns, if there’s a season we should see them both plenty?
Keith Law: Both should be on whatever taxi squad exists and both should appear if the Padres are doing well in the shortened season and want to boost their playoff chances.
Clay: Do you believe that college athletes could be handled like Olympians? Allow them to seek endorsements that would not change their amateur status, thus avoiding title IX issues but allowing them to get paid while in school.
Keith Law: I think college athletes should be handled like adults who are allowed to make financial decisions for themselves and shop their labor product to different employers.
John: RE student loans: isn’t that the point that the colleges are raising tuition beyond a reasonable rate because they can but the economics still say a college degree is worth it. Until that dynamic flips it is likely to continue but definitely agree that the loans are a racket
Keith Law: That’s not really clear, though.
Noah: Hey Klaw, Have any thoughts on the popularity of baseball cards. Jasson Dominguez is the hot one out now. Going for $30 to $70 just for a base card. Craziness or will he be worth it? (I already have yours)
Keith Law: Not worth it.
Ridley: Am I wrong to think that Twitter put themselves in this situation by exempting the President from their terms of service? Had they just followed their own rules, his account would have been banned years ago.
Also, have you noticed that he always uses the word “unfair” to describe any attempt to hold him or his accountable?
Keith Law: Yes, you are correct.
nickolai: Our girls are now at the age where we read Harry Potter to them every night (as I know you did with your daughter). It’s been fantastic overall. Our younger daughter asked if Voldemort was ‘always bad’ or if he was at some point good then turned bad due to some trauma or experience. Probably reading into it, but to me the Q behind the Q seems to be whether the ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ of individuals is innate or developed. Unsure if this ever came up with you/your girl, but curious how you answered (or would answer) that question.
Keith Law: Never came up here, but I think book 6 gets into that – at least, Rowling tries to tackle it in the case of Tom Riddle.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think she does a pretty good job.
Yoyo: Morning. Almost all mocks have the White Sox on Bailey. Callis noted they are also on all sorts of prep bats/arms which would be a different direction than usual. Does Mike Shirley taking over perhaps change the draft strategy this year?
Keith Law: The draft strategy there has always been set from above. I don’t think that has changed – and if they’re on prep guys I would bet on it happening in rounds 2-3 rather than round 1.
Pat D: On a scale of 1-10 how ironic is it that Trump being mildly fact-checked on social media is the event that makes him suddenly support regulation? Gotta be close to 100, right?
Keith Law: My ironymeter broke.
Shawn: Hey Keith, Thanks for doing these chats as always. Who do you have the Mets taking at 19 in your latest mock draft & Why
Keith Law: Link is up top.
Clay: Long term, who has the higher ceiling Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: Pache for me. The defensive value gives him a higher ceiling and more potential for longevity.
Brad: Hi Keith – does Tork project to be a truly generational bat in your opinion?
Keith Law: No, but I think he’s good.
Bob: Do you have your personal top 50/100 draft prospects on the Athletic ? Or still trying to gather info for reports ? Thanks
Keith Law: That will go up next week (a top 100).
xxx(yyy): any new recipes make it into your quarantine rotation?
Keith Law: My partner has found a bunch of new ones, largely from the NY Times cooking section. That turmeric chicken one was great. There was a miso-braised chicken thigh dish that was utterly amazing, so good I later cooked chicken thighs the same way just to shred the meat into something else.
Pat D: How soon before we start seeing all the editorials about how greedy the players are, never mind that they’d be taking more risk than just normal baseball injuries if/when they play? Or do you think they’ll find a compromise before it gets there?
Keith Law: Very soon. I’m surprised it hasn’t started
JT: How did they not fire teargas and beanbags at the armed militias who stormed state legislatures?
Keith Law: The police were told “don’t fire if you see the white of their skin.”
Evan: Cavalli seems to be a player with what might appear to be multiple ML pitches, enough strikes, and a non-frightening injury history. Other than perhaps track record, what’s keeping him out of the top 10 ranked amateurs?
Keith Law: Track record is important. Maybe a full spring makes him a top 10 guy.
John: Do you think a year off could cause a big wash out of older pitchers? Seems like a decent amout of them never make it back after modest lay-offs for minor injuries.
Keith Law: Flip side is that a year off might help some older guys regain a little velocity or recover more fully from injuries than they might have.
Greg: Would Luke Little be one of the more fun midround picks for a team betting on pure upide? Guys that big who throw that hard have to be rare (even if his command will make a big league role unlikely).
Keith Law: I will believe Luke Little throws that hard when I see him do it on a mound, outside, with a hitter in the box.
Chris: Hey Keith. I idolized Roy Halladay growing up and the recent article about him on ESPN was difficult to read. While you were in Toronto did you ever see any warning signs from Doc at all? Thank you.
Keith Law: No, but I made it a point not to spend too much time in the clubhouse – it was the players’ space and after my first year I realized I shouldn’t be intruding. I did talk to Doc once at length, and a few times to say hi, but would not say I really knew him well.
Asif: How do you compare Nick Loftin to Kevin Newman when he was drafted in 2015? It appears that they have similar skill sets.
Keith Law: Similar skill sets for sure although Newman was a much better runner at the time.
Mike: I don’t get what MLB is doing with their minor league players. Selfishly they should be worried about their development
Keith Law: My one criticism here is that if you’re not paying your minor leaguers they should have the right to become free agents if they wish.
Keith Law: You don’t get indefinite rights to someone’s employment when you’re not paying them. There’s a word for that and it’s not a nice one.
Trey: How to help current student loaners? If Dems take WH and congress, maybe lower rate to 2% (idea floated around)? Any other ideas? it’s a 1.6T issue and having far reaching econ damage.
Keith Law: They could suspend all interest payments for two years as a starting point.
Ryan: When a prospect is a “bust” the tendency is to act like he was destined to fail. Like the team simply picked the wrong guy. Seems to me like we underrate chance and development. Like, if Mark Appel ended up in a different system with different coaches and teammates and strategies, maybe he’d be an OK major leaguer now. Flip it too: there are good players who would’ve busted out in other orgs. Any thoughts on “picked the wrong guy” vs. “didn’t develop him”?
Keith Law: You’re absolutely right – it can be either of those things or just bad luck. Brady Aiken’s elbow was just bad luck. But maybe Chris Sale isn’t the Sale we know if the White Sox don’t take him and help tweak his delivery … or maybe some pitchers who never found that third pitch would have been better if the White Sox had taken them and tried to teach them cutters or different slider grips.
Mike: MLB says they will lose 640k for each game without fans. Would you favor them being allowed to sell 64 seats a game for 10k each?
Keith Law: I don’t believe them, but I think that would be feasible, if local authorities allowed it.
Cole: Would Clayton Beeter crack the top 10 if he had maintained his performance/stuff from the first few weeks into a whole season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, not with the very high slot and lack of strike-throwing before this year.
Matt: The Fed gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion after a bad week. They can forgive student loans.
Keith Law: Think of how much they could do for consumers, but won’t, because consumers don’t give to campaigns the way banks and big industries do.
Crowded House: Don’t dream it’s over is the best song of the 80’s
Keith Law: No, New Order’s True Faith is.
Mike: I respect so much of what you say on baseball, food and science but think your music views are the worst. Anyone you follow closely who you disagree with so much on something important to you even if trivial in the big picture? Don’t say pie v. cake.
Keith Law: It’s okay. Some day you’ll realize I’m right about music too!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I have some English muffins to cook. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Check out the mock draft I linked above, and by the way, my new book The Inside Game is a great Father’s Day gift according to the New York Times, Forbes, Raise, and others too! Stay safe everyone.