Klawchat 5/21/20.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my redraft of the 2010 class as well as my recap of the first-round misses from that year.

The New York Times just named my new book, The Inside Game, one of their six recommended sports reads for this summer. You can buy my book at bookshop.org or wherever fine books are sold.

Keith Law: You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.

addoeh: Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law: I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken – who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry – got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas’ playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he’d seen pitch so well himself. That’s a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson’s velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he’d really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
Keith Law: That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.

TomBruno23: Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law: I’m not on Goodreads – I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.

Andy: You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law: She loves pie, but her birthday’s a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.

Deke: Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law: I don’t think I know nearly enough to answer that.

Kevin: In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law: There wasn’t enough data to answer that question.

Michael: An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn’t a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.

Michael: Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I’m guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law: A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).

Harrisburg Hal: I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I’ve been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don’t eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally – and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly – seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)

Chuck: This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it’s over.
Keith Law: If we do that, some aspects won’t come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.

Johnny: Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can’t the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can’t we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this, but I will say we can’t even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting “FREEDOM!”

Mike: Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law: They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn’t even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn’t; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don’t want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players – Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn’t be less similar as players.

Donny: Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law: If you’re asking me which one I’d most want to watch right now, that’s The Big Lebowski. I don’t know if that’s really their ‘best,’ if we’re talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.

Mike: Hi Keith – do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, of course.

Mike: Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law: This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.

John: For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law: Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain’t likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.

Johnny: Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn’t the gov’t prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov’t continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law: Bailing out the banks didn’t do a whole lot for Americans last time around.

Mike: No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I think it’s an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.

Perks of Being a …: Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law: If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it’s him. More risk because he’s a pitcher, though.

Darren: Are there ‘risers’ or ‘fallers’ in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I don’t think players are rising or falling except around signability.

Frank: Is Zac Veen a similar caliber prospect compared to last year’s top HS prospect, Riley Greene? Does he have more upside due to his power potential?
Keith Law: I like Veen’s overall package of athleticism and projection better, but Greene was a better hitter at the same age.

Cashliam: Have you seen the Spiel Des Jahres nominees ? How many have you played?
Keith Law: For those who haven’t seen, the nominees for the Spiel des Jahres are My City, Nova Luna, and Pictures; while the nominees for the Kennerspiel des Jahres (connoisseur’s game of the year) are Cartographers, The Crew, and King’s Dilemma. I have The Crew but haven’t played it yet, and I haven’t played any of the others; I can tell you I have zero interest in Pictures, which isn’t my type of game at all.

Mike: A five round draft favours big market teams and those who recruit better doesn’t it?  Other than cost reduction why would some of the teams want to do this??
Keith Law: Does it? I don’t agree that it favors big market teams at all.

Howey: Seems like college pitchers are taking up more of the mid/late first round talk than most years. Is this due to the ease of scouting with limited data, a lack of chance for high school position player breakouts, or just how the talent spread in general?
Keith Law: This is an especially good college pitching year anyway, and the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft are pushing teams to go conservative anyway.

Guest: Congratulations on the NYT recommendation! Hard work pays off??
Keith Law: Thank you! I’m really thrilled that the response to The Inside Game has been so positive. I wanted this book to reach more than baseball fans, and I wouldn’t be able to do that without help from folks outside of our little bubble.

Doug: Should teams put all their top prospects (CJ Abrams for example) on their taxi squads no matter their proximity to the MLB just so they have some semblance of professional instruction?
Keith Law: I think so. I would, at least.

Cavan Biggio: In my debut last year, I had a wOBA of 403 vs fastballs, 265 vs breaking, and 211 vs changeups.  Are these splits fixable or perhaps a flaw in my approach/swing right now?
Keith Law: Also, IIRC, that wOBA on fastballs fell apart with higher velocity – wasn’t Biggio awful on above-average or better FB? There’s nothing fixable here; he wasn’t a prospect before last season and a hot September doesn’t change that.

Punk in Drublic: The 50 50 revenue split is such an awful deal for the players for so many reasons (already negotiated, they don’t get more when owners have a great revenue year, and teams that own their cable networks pay their own team below market rates to funnel profits to the cable network).  Why won’t anyone come out in newspapers, ESPN, etc and say so?  All we hear are blowhards saying players must take whatever they get told to accept.  Basically being the owners PR team.
Keith Law: I mean, that’s the entire history of the baseball media, right? It’s the #1 argument I see for the union pushing to allow more media access to players, when they typically want less. That’s your direct line to get your side of the story to journalists. Otherwise, we in the media hear far more from the management side of things.

JG: I’m a minority in my mid-50s.  Even though I’ve lived my entire life in Texas, I have never been the victim of an act of overt racism.  I sincerely thought the country had turned an important page when Obama was elected.  12 years later it feels almost hopeless.  These Trumpers aren’t going anywhere.  You can almost feel the anger that’s going to be unleashed if he loses.
Keith Law: If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the population of the U.S. has been getting more diverse over time, and will continue to do so.

Bob: Keith: regarding trump, he is exhausting. But I feel like I need to read his twitter feed, listen to rallies/briefings to get the full context unedited.  Newest example is “per capita” bull shit from yesterday.  Do you still listen read his nonsense or are you too the point – the evidence is there – I don’t need to read or hear from him anymore.  Cake looked great by the way – Happy Birthday to your daughter!
Keith Law: I have never followed his accounts, since I get enough of him secondhand through other media people I follow.

Eh! Steve!: I’m depressed that we’ve managed to turn a pandemic into yet another culture war.  Is there any hope for stopping the polarization of everything?
Keith Law: Nope.
Keith Law: There is profit in polarization, and that will keep it around forever.

Joe: If minor league contraction happens will teams have the option to have short season teams outside of the complex leagues? Any word on the cap for number of complex teams?
Keith Law: My understanding was no, but I hope that changes.
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t some teams have the option to keep operating short-season clubs?

Trevor: KLaw, enjoyed your 2010 redraft article and personally root for late rounds picks like Eaton and Dickerson. I’m not disputing Simmons at 1.1, but I don’t think the GMs would redraft him 1.1 considering they themselves have locked up the next 5 guys on your list for a combined $1.1B
Keith Law: Unfair comparison, since Simmons signed a seven year extension as a 1+ player.

Tom: Do you think Austin Wells is a first round talent?
Keith Law: I do not. Second round, for sure.

Joe: Any sci-fi/fantasy book recommendations? I just read Left Hand of Darkness and really enjoyed it. Farenheight 451 is already on my list.
Keith Law: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell. The Dispossessed. Among Others. The Fifth Season. An Unkindness of Ghosts. American Gods. To Say Nothing of the Dog.

W.E.B. DuBois: Gut feeling: do we get a 2020 season?
Keith Law: Yes, my gut feeling is they force one through.

Trevor: O/U: The 2010 draft class produces 0.5 HOFers?
Keith Law: Over.

Larry: Do you have any feel for how the UDFA portion could go? Will it just be mostly seniors and that’s it? Also, how do you anticipate players deciding where to sign? If 20k is the max they can get anywhere, would they just sign with the team they root for? I’d think that could benefit teams like Atlanta with a large, talented region where most of their fans live.
Keith Law: Senior signs and not much more, I think. I would at least advise such players to consider whether the teams trying to sign them offer them credible paths to the majors. A decent shortstop prospect might not want to sign with the Rays or Padres, given who else they have.

Mike: I’d nearly forgotten the Chad Jenkins/Deck McGuire fiascos…add in Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris etc and the Jays record on college arms is pretty bad…isn’t that odd for “safer” type picks?
Keith Law: Yes, their process – whatever it was – didn’t seem to identify the right college pitchers, in hindsight. Jenkins is the only one who seemed like a huge reach at the time. I do think Hoffman would have fared worse today because his fastball plays down so much, but at the time it was just “tremendous athlete with big velocity.”

Pat: What’s your opinion of Kyle Harrison? You think he would have a chance of being a first rounder if the high school season played out?
Keith Law: I have never heard that about him.

Amir: Do you think that someone like Nick Loftin who’s deemed to be “safe” and has a “high floor” would be more appealing than in past drafts with the less in-game looks and performance data to assess prospects standings in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a first-rounder, but yes, I think he’ll go higher in this draft than he would have in a year with a typical spring season.

Chris: Do you think more states will allow for mail-in voting this year?  I am trepidatious about going to the polls, but will refuse to skip voting this November.  My state does not currently allow mail-in voting, and I fear that the guess-which party-run legislature and governor will nix any such proposal because it will not work in their favor.  What say you?
Keith Law: I hope so, but are there logistical issues with this? Do states have to have the infrastructure to handle thousands or even millions of mail-in ballots?
Keith Law: Delaware is allowing anyone to register as “sick” or “disabled” to vote via mail, under an emergency order this year. I do hope that this at least leads to a permanent change here where early voting is enabled.

Larry: Any rumored signability issues with HS top 150ish guys?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s always the case.

Gary: How likely is Jack Leftwich to be taken in the top five rounds?
Keith Law: Last I heard was that it’s more likely he returns to school as he wouldn’t go high enough to come out.

Ridley: So, the Senate Majority Leader said that he would no extension on the $600/week payments because people are choosing to stay home instead of work, and that his #1 priority was to insure that workers who caught COVID wouldn’t be able to sue.

Two questions: Instead “staying home instead of working” a feature and not a bug during a quarantine? And, while we sure seem to love “job creators” in this country, there’s not a lot of love for the “job doers”, is there?
Keith Law: If I were running for any federal office as a Democrat, I would run ads that just show quotes from McConnell, Graham, etc. opposing extending those payments.

Miles Roby: Have you read Empire Falls by Richard Russo? If so, do you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes, I read it in 2007 and loved it so much I went on to read everything else he’s ever written.

Gary: If most teams are leaning conservative this year, doesn’t this set up as a good time to zig and go HS upside?
Keith Law: Sort of. The players have to be there, and they have to be willing to sign.

Tom: Randomly thought about how good Corbin Martin was in the minors before TJ, think he can get healthy and be a really solid starter in 2021?
Keith Law: I do.

Robert: Could the lack of a minor league season have an impact on major league roster decisions?  For example the White Sox with Kopech and Madrigal, could there be more of a willingness to start service time clocks rather than lose a year of development?
Keith Law: There should be.
Keith Law: Any team that might contend this year should be willing to call up any prospect who could help.

Chris: Should the city of oakland evict and sue for damages against the As for not paying their rent?
Keith Law: Per Susan Slusser, the A’s invoked a clause in their contract that allows them to do this. I don’t see what recourse the city would have here.

JP: do you envision governments being able to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine in order to send you kids to public school? and if so, shouldn’t it be ALL vaccines?
Keith Law: Technically, they can do that. Four states mandate vaccines with no nonmedical exemptions already. All states have some sort of vaccine mandate for schoolchildren.

Chris: Do you expect to have a clear picture of the top 7-10 picks of the draft beforehand, or do you expect it to stay quiet and all guess work this year?
Keith Law: I think we’ll know the top 10-12 pretty well by draft day. Back of the round will probably be more speculation this year than typical.

Shawn: Hey Keith, great job always. What about Jared Kelley to the Mets at 19. Thanks
Keith Law: Highly doubt they take a prep arm at 19. I wouldn’t.

Steven B.: Do you like OSU catcher Dillon Dingler in the 1st round this year?
Keith Law: He was on my mock last week and I believe he goes in the first round.

Todd: Im really starting to think there’s no bottom to the Trump administration and that by late summer the economy could be enough that people will think he did a good job while he averts their attention from 200k dead. Please tell me Im wrong?
Keith Law: I don’t think the economy recovers that quickly. It’s going to be too hard to push people back to manufacturing facilities or other environments where they’re in proximity to other workers without creating new outbreaks.

Larry: What are you hearing on Mick Abel? I get the HS pitcher thing but man do scouts love him.
Keith Law: Best HS arm this year. Only prep pitcher on my mock last week.

Mike: If you go first round and get offered half of value, what do you do?  It’s arguable that contracts are going to go way down if fans can’t get back. I’m team fuck the owners, but if I’m a player and get offered 1M in a 2M slot it might be hard to turn it down
Keith Law: I would advise the player to turn it down. Go to JC next year if you’re a HS player.

Bighen: Simmons going 1 seems Egh.   I get it but analysts always warn us that defense ages early and often quickly.  So he may have almost no time left as an elite defender which would make the rest of his career look iffy.  I don’t think he can be rated above yelich, Harper or Machado for an exercise like that.  Sales future prospects and degrom’s age at least give pause.  But I think the simmons choice is not as “defensible“ as written.
Keith Law: Simmons isn’t an average defender or even an above-average one. He’s an 80 defender at short, like Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, both of whom held their value into their late 30s. Even Vizquel, who wasn’t as good a defender as Simmons is, held most of his defensive value till his career ended. I don’t think Simmons is an obvious choice, and feel like this exercise is both subjective and inherently speculative, but I do not agree with your counterargument here – the best argument against Andrelton is around his bat, not his glove, as it is offensive decline that ends the careers of elite defenders more than loss of glove.

Guest: Also I loved Smart Baseball and reading your work. Just as I joined ESPN as a PA you left. :/ I am reading you now in the Athletic!!
Keith Law: Well, thank you. I did try to hint that I might not stay at ESPN last year, but I didn’t decide for certain until late November.

Mike: Since you missed out on in game scouting are you watching film or cross checking for players you haven’t seen in person?
Keith Law: I watch video where I can, but this year I’ll rely more on calls to scouts than I typically do.

Jason Amico: What are your thoughts on how Joey Bart’s defensive ability behind the plate will translate at the big league level? I was curious if his hand injuries and setbacks last season would have any impact
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason it would hurt his defense in the long run. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it’s a sign he can’t stay at catcher, but we aren’t at that point.

JD: Oakland has gone with high ceiling, up the middle tools players in recent 1st rounds (Beck, Murray, Davidson), are there names that fit this bill at the end of the first round this year?
Keith Law: Yes … but Beck hasn’t panned out, Murray didn’t sign, and Davidson is still a big question mark. Not sure they’d stick with that approach in a weird draft year anyway.

Mike: Do you think teams are prepared for this draft or is it a bigger crap shoot than normal?  Can’t wait to read the redraft article in 2030
Keith Law: Let’s just hope we’re all here to read it in 2030. I do think teams could draft today if they had to. There isn’t that much to discuss at this point without games to watch.

TomBruno23: I want to try OOTP 21, but I’m scared I’ll full go Universal Baseball Association and even more insane than I already am. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have played OOTP, maybe 20 years ago (?), and I just can’t do it now because I’d get sucked into it and lose so much time.

Dr. Bob: I have always been opposed to the DH for reasons you already know. However, an article by a former sportswriter a couple of years ago detailed how no team (even in the NL) works with their pitchers to hit at any level. That’s when I was converted. Now Covid-19, of all things, might bring it to the NL.
Keith Law: Yep, I don’t really even see how you could work with pitchers enough on their hitting to make a difference. This should have happened years ago – the game will be better off for it.

Mike: How hard has it been to put together mock drafts this year? Has there still been a lack of info tying players to teams or have you been starting to hear more rumblings?
Keith Law: I had less info for last week’s mock than I would for a normal mock one month before a draft. We’ll see if that changes now that we’re close to the draft date and everyone is doing mocks so information is flowing more.

Mike Trout: Barring injury, when it’s all said and done am I the consensus GOAT?
Keith Law: There will be contrarians who argue against it, but I think that’s where we’re headed.

Regan: Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, who has the higher upside?
Keith Law: I think Garrett.

Guest: We all understand Twitter is a cesspool but have you been following this hitting guru stuff? It’s pure gold.
Keith Law: I haven’t … and now I’m scared.

Mike-Y: How excited are you about Michael Bay making a movie about the pandemic?
Keith Law: Is he … is he going to just blow up the virus?

JP: what happens to Kyler Murray if he wants to play baseball sometime in the future? free agent? re-enters the draft?
Keith Law: Pretty sure he’s on Oakland’s restricted list and they’d hold his rights.

Guest: If he didn’t have TJ surgery, would Kevin Abel be a top draft pick this year?
Keith Law: A pick, yes, a top one, probably not.

Johnny: Will Plesac be an above avg starter in the bigs?
Keith Law: I think he can be.

Johnny: Shouldn’t Jacob Degrom be #2?
Keith Law: He’s a 31-year-old starter who’s already had TJ. His long-term projection isn’t great, even though in the short term there are few pitchers I’d rather have.

Ben: Favorite film of the 7Os?
Keith Law: I’d take The Sting over Chinatown and Star Wars – but really, the kids of today should defend themselves against the ’70s.
Keith Law: Oh, I finally saw Taxi Driver and Midnight Cowboy for the first time in the last week. We’ve been catching up on all-time great films one or both of us hasn’t seen.

Mark in Santa Monica: If there is a short season, are there any teams you think it helps more to get to the postseason?
Keith Law: It increases the odds of a team having a really fluky season and getting into the playoffs. For example, the White Sox were a good-not-great team for 162 games. If they play 70 games, could they get an outlier performance or two that makes them a 42-28 team that wins the division? Absolutely. More likely than a 98-64 season.

Pat: Did you ever watch The Wire? The pandemic finally gave me the the time to do so. Great show. maybe favorite of all time.
Keith Law: Yep, reviewed all five seasons here.

Sam: Favorite “I know it isn’t a good movie but I really enjoy it any way” movie?
Keith Law: I have a soft spot for Top Secret! I’ll always remember Deja Vu.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for the questions and for reading. I believe I’ll have my second mock next week, and then I’ll do two more before we actually draft. Take care & stay safe!