Klawchat 3/5/20.

Starting at 1 pm. You can find all of my prospect rankings content here on The Athletic. All 30 team reports are up, as well as the global top 100 and the farm system rankings.

Keith Law: Can you picture what will be? Klawchat.

Jabroni: Can Nick Gonzales develop into an avg defensive 2B?
Keith Law: Sounds like it. I hope to see him later this month, but I haven’t heard anyone say he has to move off 2b, at least. More common is the comment that the elevation of Las Cruces is helping his power.

Trey: Favorite short story collections? Recent or classic.
Keith Law: Any collection of F. Scott Fitzgerald stories.

Larry: Last week I asked how many college starters can grade out better than Nick Lodolo (you said 3-5).  Can you name those pitchers?
Keith Law: I can.
Keith Law: Oh, did you want me to do it now? Just in this draft class, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer, and Detmers for sure. Omitting Ginn since he’s out with ‘stiffness,’ and I see a few others who could get there but I wouldn’t feel strongly enough to list right now.

J5: enjoyed your first 2 podcasts
Keith Law: Thank you! Subscribe and listen on Apple or
Spotify.

Sammy Sosa: How concerned are you that the GOP moves as far right as they want while the Dems continue to meet them in a new middle? How do we prevent future Democratic frontrunner John Kasich?
Keith Law: To be honest, as political issues go, my concerns are almost entirely focused on November 2020. We have to survive that first.

wrburgess: When you critique traits of a player, like the Emerson Hancock “head shakes at release” observation, I have no reason to question that assessment. What I can’t do, currently, is understand the long term ramifications such a tendency may have. Are “head shakes” something changeable? Can a pitcher be coached out of that? Or is it indicative of a permanent mechanic that says “4th starter” to you? How can readers better grasp the context of your comments?
Keith Law: I try to include comments every now and then that explain why certain traits matter. For example, you see very few major-league starters with head-whacks (or head violence or whatever you want to call it). It might be because it’s hard to command the ball when your head is moving that hard at release. My hypothesis is that arm actions so intense that you can’t keep your head steady are correlated with more stress on joints. I can think of one MLB starter who had that kind of delivery and worked it out so that he could not just start, but get to plus command: Max Scherzer.

Vincent Adultman: Pleasantly surprised with your Sikkema ranking within the Yankees system, which also appears to suggest you think he can make it as a starter (even if its at the back of the rotation)- how aggressive should the Yankees be with him- start in Tampa, with a pre-midseason bump to AA?
Keith Law: Exactly. High draft pick D1 starter/regular -> start next year in high A -> goal of AA by August.

Chris: Music question, based on your posts in the comments sections of your music posts, you love metal and then a bunch of alt rock, indie, etc, but you don’t seem to like anything that would be classified as hard rock. There appears to be a hole on the rock spectrum. Do you agree with that?  If so, why?
Keith Law: I do not agree with that.

pakkap: severino is done for the year, tanaka always seems to be a pitch away from elbow surgery, and i’d likely take the under on games played/started for the following yanks: judge (100), stanton (81), paxton (16). how much trouble are they in?
Keith Law: This was the concern I had last year when I picked the Yankees to win ~88 games – the pitching staff seemed a stumble away from losing 50-60 starts or more from its projected rotation members. They have a little depth, but not enough to fade 0 from Severino, half a season from Paxton, and maybe more.

Moe Mentum: Who would you recommend as presumptive nominee Joe Biden’s running mate, and why?
Keith Law: Elizabeth Warren.

Big League Chew: We have an opening in our dynasty league, interested in jumping in? Some real sharks in this league.
Keith Law: do dooo do do do do

KLawFan: What relatively unknown pitching and batting prospects will move up the most in prospect lists by end of this year?
Keith Law: I have a ‘sleeper’ prospect at the end of each of the 30 team reports. Your answers are there.

Chris: When’s your next visit to Nashville?  Will you have time to meet with readers/fans for a board game?
Keith Law: May, possibly doing a signing/talk at Parnassus Books, but I won’t have time to hang with readers, sorry.

Brett Jones: Where was Zach McKinstry on your list of top Dodgers prospects? I was surprised he didn’t make the top 20 considering his 2019 season and his proximity to the bigs.
Keith Law: Low upside. His 2019 was fine, but I’m not sure why you’d assume it would put him in the top 20. Solid role player.

Jay: Has Anderson Espinoza lost too much time at this point to think he’ll ever contribute to a MLB team? I remember him being extremely young for his leagues, but now wonder if he’ll be too old for his leagues and if his stuff will ever return.
Keith Law: Age matters less for pitchers but we have no idea how his stuff will be after two TJ surgeries and what his durability will be.

addoeh: This week, the President has directly contradicted public health officials on multiple occasions. I almost expect him to either (1) issue an executive order that a vaccine for the coronavirus needs to be released to the public prior to any testing or clinical trials or (2) promote some crackpot anti-vaxxer concoction of turmeric and bleach.
Keith Law: The latter.

Tom: Will AJ Hinch be managing a big league club in 2021?
Keith Law: I think he’ll have an MLB team role in 2021. Maybe front office rather than managing at first. I do think he’ll manage again, though.

Tom: Regardless of policy preference, who do you think has a stronger chance to beat Trump: Biden or Bernie?
Keith Law: Straight betting odds? Biden. I think people underestimate the pervasiveness of anti-Semitism in this country.

TYGERTAILZ: YOOOOO KEITH, POISON MOTLEY CRUE AND DEF LEPPARD THIS SUMMER!!!  WANNA GO BRO???  I GOT AN EXTRA TICKET!
Keith Law: I have just enough time to grow out my mullet!

Dan: Is Torkelson’s strikeout rate this year a concern? When you take out the intentional walks it’s quite high.
Keith Law: He has 40 AB. Talk about a tiny sample.

Paul: What are the odds Nick Gonzales can go as high as #1 at this point?
Keith Law: 5% or less. Has to pass Torkelson and Martin and maybe Lacy too.

Randall: Any chance you’re heading to Knoxville soon? Crochet/Sewell/Soularie best prospects in years. Draft thoughts? GBO!!!
Keith Law: Crochet had a top ten spot sewn up, but he’s hurt.

Fisher: Any chance Jays cave and  Pearson, ehhh, stays?
Keith Law: Doubt it. And I can’t dispute that … this isn’t Vlad part two.

Cory: How do Rocker/Leiter compare to Mize to this point?
Keith Law: Mize better.

Steve: Regardless of how Riley does the remainder of ST, should ATL just roll with Camargo at 3B to start the year?
Keith Law: Camargo has some strong performance history in the majors; Riley doesn’t. So yes, I would try that.

Jaysfan: Best Jays prospect outside of Pearson, Woods-Richardson, Manoah & Groshans…
Keith Law: My Blue Jays top 20 is up for Athletic subscribers.

james: I didn’t see Jaylin Davis of the Giants on your prospect write up.  With the Giants seemingly committed to giving him at bats to start the season, do you think he will be able to translate his AAA success to the big leagues?
Keith Law: Not enough to make the top 20. Extra guy.

Ben M: Ginn just announced surgery 🙁
Keith Law: Ah yes, I hadn’t seen that – I knew he was scheduled to see the doctor again this week. He could have had ~$3 million from the Dodgers two years ago. He might get that next year, if he comes back and pitches before the draft, but I’d bet the under (to say nothing of the time value of the money).

Evan: What’s your current playlist while writing?
Keith Law: My February new music playlist which I hope to post tomorrow.

Tommy: Starting to hear rumblings that the Red Sox might give Tanner Houck a shot in their starting rotation to start the year.  Do you see him as a viable long-term starter, or is he future bullpen material?
Keith Law: That makes no sense. Doesn’t have the third pitch he’d need to be an MLB starter. (He’s on the Red Sox top 20.)

Yinka Double Dare: The sundowning septuagenarian guy, the angry-sounding septuagenarian guy, or the incumbent sundowning angry-sounding septuagenarian guy.
Keith Law: All white.

Ryan: I saw your tweet of the video of Zac Veen. That is a smooth looking swing. What is his draft outlook?
Keith Law: Top ten pick. Maybe the first HS player off the board. It’s a weak HS pitching draft – Kelley, Bitsko, Abel are the only clear first rounders right now, although I heard Justin Lange hit 100 last week – so I think it’ll be extremely college heavy up top. Veen is the best bet to break the college streak up top.

Geoff: Do you see the automatic ball/strike system taking over within three years?
Keith Law: Yes, and more importantly, MLB execs seem to expect it, probably for 2022.

Michael: Crazy to say Skubal is the best arm in the Tigers org?
Keith Law: Not crazy, but I don’t agree.

Ken: Hey Keith. Really enjoying the new podcast. The first one dropped on a Wednesday then this week it was Monday. What day can we expect to see it posted going forward?
Keith Law: Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Keith Law: We try to record Mondays. I just got crushed on the 24th when the top 100 hit

Tulsi Gabbard: Is it obvious sexism AND racism that people forget there are THREE remaining Dem candidates? Including a woman of color.
Keith Law: Who? You said Dem candidates, so I know you don’t mean Tulsi Gabbard.

Vincent Adultman: I understand this isn’t your beat, but have you heard any info about if/when MLB will institute an international draft?
Keith Law: They will push for it in the 2021 CBA talks. Not sure if the union will fight it/.

addoeh: Ever done or any desire to do any “daredevil” activities?  Like skydiving, zip lining, bungee jumping, white water rafting.
Keith Law: Nope nope nopity nope.

Adam: We are now 5 years into AJ Preller’s tenure. He had his massive 2016 J2 class, his massive 2016 draft class, and has signed 2 players to contracts well over $100 million. If they lose more than 80 games this year, is it fair to say he had enough time and resources to build a successful team?
Keith Law: That’s not enough time for a J2 class especially to produce All-Star/impact players. Probably also true for a draft class unless you go college heavy and get a little lucky.

Pat D: This is the end, beautiful friend?  On a more serious note, is there a bigger joke of an overgrown man-child currently serving in Congress than Matt Gaetz?
Keith Law: How are his constituents not terminally embarrassed by him?

Zihuatanejo: If Elizabeth Warren’s name was “Warren Elizabeth,” how do you think s/he would be faring in the primaries right now?
Keith Law: Winning enough to still be in the race.

John: Do you find out more about your process and how to improve it when you miss on a player thinking he will be really good, or missing on a player thinking he will not be very good.
Keith Law: The latter. Most prospects don’t work out as expected.

Brian: As a Phillies fan, am I wrong to be pessimistic about Bohm?  The local media seems to be hyping up him greatly, but I worry that a slightly better bat than Maikel Franco isn’t getting the job done.
Keith Law: Much better bat than Franco. I’ve noticed the Phillies writers who trolled me over Franco’s first half-season in the majors never had anything more to say about him…

Chris: Have you ever considered walking away from baseball and having a job that didnt involve sports?  Especially one with less public criticism where no matter what you say, 50% of your readers will disagree and trash you on twitter
Keith Law: Yes, it has crossed my mind, but I also like what I do and enjoy the interactions with the good readers.

Jason: Thoughts on the Yelich extension? Seems good for both sides.
Keith Law: Seems like a bit of an assumption that he holds what he’s done the last two years, but I don’t have any real issue with it either way.

Evan: Number of wins and place the Blue Jays finish in the AL East. Are they really a wild card contender?
Keith Law: Wild card contenders? What?

Brian: Don’t the current injury issues of the Yanks show why trading Mookie was a mistake? You never know when a team is gonna have the year from hell with injuries especially when you’re dealing with guys like Tanaka, Paxton, Severino, and Judge.
Keith Law: It’s at least a fair question to ask. I still think the Red Sox would be well short of the pitching to make the playoffs even if you could say right now the Yankees are an 85 win team.

Marshall: The perception is that the Red Sox reneged on their initial trade with the Dodgers to extract more value. But, since the holdup resulted in the Angels trade falling through, were the Dodgers actually better off too?
Keith Law: I don’t know where that perception came from. It appeared on social media but I never saw any basis. Graterol did have an actual shoulder injury last year.

Andy: It took 10 years but we may have finally reached the point where Chris Sale’s elbow can’t stand up to starting.
Keith Law: I WAS RIGHT

Jeffrey: Has there been any spring training performances that would have resulted in any major moves up or down your top 100 ranking? Or small sample size applies?
Keith Law: Not just small sample size but the competition in spring training is way too variable. You don’t even face the same pitcher twice in many games until the end. Hitters might get two PA and leave. It’s fake.

Trey: Any book signings in NYC area?
Keith Law: Maybe. I think my publicist was working on one for the 21st, release night, after I appear on MLB Network that afternoon.

Nate: is max Meyer a starter long term?
Keith Law: I don’t see why not.

nelson: As a longtime reader of your chats, it’s interesting to me just how much the questions that people ask have changed over the years. People seem more informed about more players than ever and have stronger opinions. Do you agree with this assessment?
Keith Law: I do. There’s a lot more information out there today than 13 years ago.

Brian: Keith, I am an ASU fan and I know Spencer Torkelson is a good player but other managers are treating him like he’s already a hall of famer.  I believe he has been intentionally walked 15 or 16 times in 14 games.  This is crazy over-managing.  Even if he hit .400 it still doesn’t make any sense to continue to do this.
Keith Law: Agreed, but let’s face it, there are not many good tacticians among college coaches. They still bunt in the first inning all. the. fucking. time.

Larry: When will the Democrats stop defaulting to anger and actually try to do something?
Keith Law: How many bills has the Democrat-controlled House passed that the Senate won’t take up?

Michael: Hi Klaw!  Have you every had a year where a team had no prospects in Top 100?
Keith Law: Yes, multiple times.

Turner: This is probably a question for after your new book comes out, but do foresee doing any book signings?
Keith Law: I’ve listed two on recent Stick to baseball posts and I believe we have five confirmed, just not announced on the stores’ sites.

Steve: There was a lot of hype around Blaze Jordan not too long ago and him maybe going top3 or top5, seems to have died off. Where you project he goes in draft, top 10 still?
Keith Law: Yeah, so, that was all some internet bullshit. He was *never* that kind of prospect. He’s probably not even a first-rounder. If you don’t read it from a reputable prospect site – MLB Pipeline, BA, Fangraphs, and I hope me – then don’t believe it.
Keith Law: He’s a no-position power guy from the state with, IMO, the worst track record for HS position player prospects, Mississippi.

J5: If Alex Wood fails miserably, and Gonsolin keeps putting up zeros…. any chance he wins a spot?
Keith Law: I buy that.

Brad: More or less – 30% chance that Garrett Mitchell from UCLA slips out of the first round entirely?
Keith Law: I’d say a bit more. The diabetes will scare a lot of teams off.

SedTimmons: What you ever consider putting together a listing or something searchable for your book and or movie reviews? I was trying to find your thoughts on a book I was considering and couldn’t find it.
Keith Law: Search box on top right didn’t work? Author’s name?

O’s fan: Trying to convince myself into Tork assuming Detroit takes Martin first. Is he really good enough as a R/R 1B to take #2 overall?
Keith Law: It sounds like it, and I feel very confident he’ll go 2 if he doesn’t go 1 (but I don’t assume Martin goes first).
Keith Law: Also, my streak of seeing Tigers scouting director Scott Pleis continued. He was at Veen/Crews last night. I saw him at Lacy’s outing last Friday and Hancock the week before.

Andy: I understand you start your top 100 fresh each year, but a question on Naylor: is his missing the list a product of him not hitting like you might have hoped post-draft, given he made strides catching? In other words, did he need to hit more to justify his 2019 rank?
Keith Law: Yes, was hoping for more impact, and also reports from other scouts were good but not glowing.

Jack: Under the proposed new playoff format from a few weeks back, it also mentioned that every MLB team would play all other 29 teams in the regular season. In your opinion, is this doable or would the travel be too hectic?
Keith Law: I would assume, without having asked them, that the union would fight that like hell.

Andy: Serious question, what happens if one of the old white men gets seriously sick in the next three months?
Keith Law: I had this random thought while traveling: Coronavirus’ death rate is highest for the elderly. What if any of those three gets it? Aren’t they out there shaking a lot of hands? Nonzero chance, right?

Nick: How do you get the hashbrowns to be crispy?
Keith Law: Wrap them in a tea towel and wring out as much moisture as you can, then get that pan and oil rippling hot before you add the potatoes, reducing the heat afterwards.

AngryMets: Would International guys fall into their own separate International draft, or would they be included in MLB draft along with the college & HS kids in the US?
Keith Law: Every proposal I’ve heard has been for a separate international draft. Combining the two would be a bit of a nightmare.

Dave: No question, just a rant. I love the comments you get when fans of a given team criticize your prospect rankings. I doubt very much that they ever read the part where you and other authors discuss the criteria used for assessment purposes (e.g. ceiling, floor, proximity to the majors). I doubt that the realize how good a prospect must be to make a top 100 list or how little the difference is between a ranking of 40 and 60. Instead of respecting your expertise (why are they reading) or their lack of the same, you get the tired and unimaginative “why do you hate my team”?
Keith Law: Or, why didn’t you rank them the way this other site ranked them? Yesterday a fan said I had the Cubs’ #20 prospect too high, and that their farm system was too low. I mean, the futility of arguing over a team’s #20 prospect aside, does this fan actually know about the prospects in each of the farm systems I had ranked above them? I doubt it. It’s silly. If you don’t like my rankings, that’s fine, but let’s not pretend that we all have equal information here.

Nick: Is Nico anything more than an average middle infielder?
Keith Law: Maybe a soft 55.
Keith Law: I was surprised that fans thought he’d be on the top 100. I always say I want guys with some ceiling. That’s not Nico.

WhiteSoxAndy: Am I allowed to finally be at least a little bit excited about the team I root for?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mi Llama es Erick: Any thoughts on the new Tame  Impala album?
Keith Law: I’d like to give it a few more spins but it might be my favorite album of his.

Grover: Were/are you high on Dennis Santana as a bullpen arm?
Keith Law: Thought he was a good bullpen prospect, did not buy him as a starter.

JB: Have you ever had coffee brewed in a siphon coffee maker?  Seems kind of gimmicy, but looks interesting.
Keith Law: Yes at Siphon Coffee outside Houston. It was good. It was not $7 good.

Todd: Keith, at what point, if ever, will Trump ever get calle dout for his lies?
Keith Law: He’s been called out all the time. His supporters don’t care. If they get tax cuts and eliminate reproductive rights, he can say whatever he likes.

Grover: re: the more information, does that also have the negative affect of contributing to fans becoming incredibly defensive and tribal over players they’ve never even seen play because they saw them ranked highly in multiple other places?
Keith Law: I buy that.

Steve: Who do you like more long term – Tatis Jr. or Lux? What about just offensively?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr to both. And I love Lux.

Nolan: What’s the worst “give up a lot of money to pitch in college” example you can think of off the top of your head? Karsten Whitson?
Keith Law: Whitson for sure, especially since he’d agreed to sign and then backed out to ask for more money. Several others I can think of who didn’t sign were affected by something discovered in the post-draft physical, so I can’t pin it all on the player or his representatives.

Mike: What’d you think of luxurious Port Orange when you saw Veen last night?
Keith Law: Funny enough, I had a good meal at Thai Kitchen right near the high school. I’ve never tried kua gai noodle before but I will warn you what they call medium spicy is … well, I could still feel my face afterwards, so I guess it wasn’t hot.

Brent: Not sure if you know the answer, but is there a way to search by “writer” on The Athletic? Love the site and mobile app but wish I could search by writer, cause you work with some real good ones. Thanks
Keith Law: Yes, there’s a writer index, or you can click on the byline in any article and see all of that writer’s stuff.

Rob: In your tram capsules you wrote that Jordyn Adams didn’t hit up to the angels’ expectations. Considering he had a 110 wrc what the hell were they expecting? Seemed pretty impressive considering his age and experience level in baseball.
Keith Law: say it with me: Do ? not ? use ? wRC+ ? to ? evaluate ? minor ? leaguers.

Greg P: Do you ever read any of the comment sections at the Athletic?  I stopped after a little while, but wondered if you did read them.
Keith Law: No. Comment sections are the septic tanks of the internet.

Sean: What to make of Wyatt Mathisen? Former second round pick that flamed out as a catcher, but looked good as a hitter in AAA last year, albeit the happy fun ball. Does he have a chance to turn things around and stick in the MLB?
Keith Law: Purely my speculation but I wonder if his development path would have been better if he hadn’t been in the same system/levels as the disgraced Reese McGuire at the start of his career.

Grover: Would Tim Tebow make a top 1000?
Keith Law: Top 1000 what?

Expos: When will the MLB be back in Montreal full time (or even part time)?
Keith Law: My prediction is still never.

JL: This is not a question, but maybe more of a thought I wanted to pass along. You always say to not scout the stat line, which makes complete sense. But for most of us office dwellers who don’t ever get to see the prospects we’re curious about, that’s about all we can do to spark a question about a prospect with you. Thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: There’s a difference between looking at a stat line and wondering what the player is like and looking at a stat line and assuming what the player is like.

Jimmy The Pratt: Are you a hugger?  I personally enjoy the embrace of others, but this coronavirus has me freaked out.
Keith Law: I am a hugger. I think it’s inevitable that we all get the coronavirus at some point. It’s not going to just die off like SARS.
Keith Law: (Which was another coronavirus, but caused more serious infections with a shorter incubation period.)

JaysFan: Who’d you rather…Moncada or Matt Chapman?
Keith Law: Chapman, easily. Elite defense.

Heater: I am going to Nashville this summer.  Anything my boyfriend and I should do while I am there?
Keith Law: I’ve really never done anything there that didn’t involve food, which is a strength of the city, but I hear they play music there too.

BigLeagueChew: So…we still have this spot in our league Keith…
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy baseball at all.

Mike: Do you see Albert Almora or Ian Happ having a more productive, long-term career from here on out?
Keith Law: Woof. I liked both as prospects. I’d take Happ now.

Albert: Loving your prospect stuff, and looking forward to notes on Torkelson, Martin and Gonzales, but did you or your agent have any idea about all the lurkers at the Athletic? Seriously, so many comments under moderation your every post that it’s no longer even worth bothering with any feedback there.
Keith Law: I’m not sure what you’re asking/saying here, but then again I don’t read the comments there. I assume they are also a septic tank.

Kip: Why can’t we change laws to make insurance companies compete across state and international lines and remove certificate of needs before we try a massive overhaul like Medicare for All?  The government creates conditions for monopolies, makes life worse, and then politicians throw up their hands and wonder why.
Keith Law: The price elasticity of health care poses a serious problem for competition that the market itself may not be able to address. How much money would you pay for a treatment that will keep you alive? Keep your child alive? Extend your life by a year, two years, ten? The answer is probably “all your money.” That situation is ripe for market actors to exploit. Expecting market-based solutions in a space with as many distortions as health care is probably unrealistic.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. There won’t be a chat next week either due to a schedule conflict. Thank you all for your questions and for reading all of my prospect content – I’ve seen the traffic numbers and am thrilled so many of you clicked, read, and subscribed. And thanks to all of you who’ve listened to the first two episodes of my new podcast as well. That will be back on Monday with guest Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Have a great weekend!