Klawchat, 1/30/20.

For The Athletic subscribers, I wrote about the Starling Marte trade, and looked at the Reds’ moves and chances of contention for 2020. Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a 7 Wonders-like civ-builder with card-drafting and lots of simultaneous actions for fast play.

Keith Law: Wait in silence while planning your attack. Klawchat.

Bruce: Sam Hilliard played well last year though it was a small sample size. I was impressed the way he hung in there against Hader in a late season game and took him deep the other way. Does he have the chance to be a solid regular or maybe more?
Keith Law: Definitely has the tools to be no worse than a solid regular, but I do think the swing and miss, esp on breaking stuff, will be an issue in him getting there.

Bryan: Over/Unders on Oscar Mercado this season. 345 OBP, 18 HR, 26 SB.
Keith Law: I’m a big Mercado fan but I would go under, over, under, although HR totals for 2020 are impossible to predict until we see what the ball is like.

Justin: Know you’ve been a fan in the past, are we beyond the point of Gregory Polanco being productive? Would a good half-season net some trade value at the deadline for PIT?
Keith Law: Let’s see if him getting fully healthy this year gets him back on track.

Laurel: Does Jon Gray need a new home?
Keith Law: I think he would benefit from one, but “need” is too strong.

addoeh: Did you compare Skyline Chili to Olive Garden or something?  Reds fans have their torches and pitchforks out because you offered a measured opinion on their offseason.
Keith Law: It was kind of embarrassing to see how those fans conducted themselves over a piece that I don’t think was harsh at all. I got a similar reaction 13 months ago when I said the Wood/Puig deal was awful.

Mike: Can Justus Sheffield still turn into a mid-rotation piece? What are your expectations for him this season?
Keith Law: If his velocity is back to at least the low 90s, touching 94-95, in spring training, I’d say yes.

Paul: With spring training a little over a week away, how does not having a manager impact the Red Sox? How big a role does the manager play in developing the ST plans and practice schedule?
Keith Law: Not a big issue yet. I don’t think it matters at all till the games start.

Andy: Would Verdugo, Ruiz, and a couple non top 100 prospects get Betts? I’d rather the Dodgers hold on to Gonsolin for a 1 year rental.
Keith Law: No. You’re trying to trade the prospects you don’t like as much, instead of looking at it from Boston’s perspective, where they are fielding offers from other clubs too.

Jon: When is the correct time to trade Josh Bell? Boras guy, they’re obviously not going to re-sign him. With the DH coming to the NL, does it make sense to hold him until next offseason when more teams could have a use for him? Does he fetch two top-100 guys?
Keith Law: Still three years to FA, right? So I’d say there isn’t any urgency yet. See when the market emerges – 1b/dh types haven’t been valued that highly recently so they really need a contender with prospects to have a sudden need at that position.

Seth: Excited for Jesus Sanchez this season? Does the change in development team positively or negatively impact his future?
Keith Law: Neither.

Nick: Lost season for Urias already with the hamate surgery? He’ll certainly be able to play after his recovery but won’t that sap any true power reads until ’21?
Keith Law: Power was the least important aspect of his game, so as long as he plays, I don’t think so.

Andy: In the Betts to LA scenarios, I see people putting Bellinger in CF. Who do you think is a better CF, Betts or Bellinger?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Arnold: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on the Bryant grievance ruling? Seemed like a foregone conclusion since the rules were set up in a way teams could exploit it. Can the union do something in the next negotiation to address the issue and does the Cubs handling of the situation increase the odds of Bryant leaving in free agency and/or the Cubs trading him before them figuring Bryant won’t come back voluntarily?
Keith Law: I agree it was a foregone conclusion. It’s a hard issue to regulate, because proving service time manipulation is hard (even though we all see it), and if you try to move the thresholds teams will just alter how they manipulate the time. My suggestion at the time they did this to KB was to allow for a one-year right of first refusal option when a player was at 6.000 on the dot, so that at least teams would lose some disincentive to call up players to debut on Opening Day. That doesn’t solve the problem, but I think it’s a bit more fair to players, and gets the Kris Bryants of the world into the majors two weeks sooner.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation by the All Star break?
Keith Law: He’ll be on the staff by then.

Leo: Adam Frazier’s name popped up a lot as a possible trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Was there any substance to that and should he return some value? Maybe a handful of 10-20 guys in an org?
Keith Law: No idea about substance but sure, a non-top ten prospect or two would make sense.

Kevin: Planning on watching the Super Bowl this weekend? It’s more of a social activity than a football game anyway. Anything interesting on the menu??
Keith Law: Probably not; we might go see a movie instead.

Jon: Keith, why do so many people in chats, both in yours and others around the web, suggest ridiculous one-sided trade proposals? And why respond to them?
Keith Law: My guess: most of these people don’t think their proposals are ridiculous. It’s not easy to value players when you don’t work inside the sport, and they are basing their opinions off the opinions of others (who may, in turn, be basing their opinions on those of others).
Keith Law: I respond to a tiny fraction of the proposals that come my way.

Luke: Matt Carpenter going to return to relevancy this season? Not sure what went wrong with him.
Keith Law: He got old. Time is a motherfucker.

Adam: I’m asking this specifically about Jasson Dominguez, but it applies to any prospect his age. How do teams balance focusing on his development as a player — i.e., better technique in the outfield — with cultural and general maturity that also has to go on at that age? It seems like an enormous task that would require a lot of cash and effort.
Keith Law: It is an enormous task and not every team does it well. Some teams prefer to target players who might be more mature, or speak English already, or have more education. Some have more extensive development programs for such players, and are doing things like building dorms at their spring training sites (e.g., Cleveland) to give players housing and feed them and just generally keep an eye on them.

dan: Do you see any common factors in prospects that in prior years you have projected highly who haven’t succeeded or in prospects you’ve rated fairly low who do well?  Is there a type of player, position, age, organization or the like which is a factor on missing either high or low?
Keith Law: If I notice any sort of bias like that in my evaluations, I change my process. Otherwise I’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

Nick: If/when O’neil Cruz moves off shortstop, can he make it work in center?
Keith Law: Right field is the floor. I’d try him at third first.

Gunther Centralperk: I asked the Kershaw/CH question (in a poorly-worded way) in last week’s chat. He’s been quoted as saying it’s “tough” for him to throw one and he “doesn’t have very big hands.” You said there were no mechanical issues, so it’s just a feel thing for him then? I’m trying to understand why a CH would/could be tough for him when he so quickly developed an excellent SL in 2010.
Keith Law: Maybe he has never found a grip that works? You do need to hold the ball in one of a few ways to make a changeup effective.

Mark: A report in the SD paper said the Pads / Sox have discussed either Lucchesi or Quantrill and either Neylor or Margot, plus Myers and a top prospect (but not in their top 5) for Betts. Assuming that’s accurate, what prospect would consider including – Baez? Morejon?
Keith Law: I’d include either of those in a deal for Betts. I’ve heard from multiple teams that their internal defensive metrics rate Margot very highly in center.

Steve: What do you know about Luis Rojas? Right hire by the Mets?
Keith Law: Great hire. Lot of managing experience, loved by players, data savvy, works well with R&D folks. They accidentally got it right.

Brian B: Hi Keith.  Thanks for moving to a platform where this Canadian can read your work.  I’m curious whether Outs Above Average has changed your outlook on any players?  As a Blue Jays fan, I was unsurprised by the Vlad Jr. (last place) ranking, but pleasantly surprised by Bo (maybe can stay at short?) and Biggio (not your favourite, I know, but perhaps there is something there?)
Keith Law: I like it a lot for outfielders. For infielders it’s incomplete, per comments from Mike Petriello, so I’m not using it.

Mark: Think Kris Bryant gets moved soon, now that his grievance has been decided?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard the Cubs hadn’t discussed him much with anyone, so I would still guess no.

Ben: Any favorite places to eat in Nashville? I’ve never been but may have a few days there soon.
Keith Law: Tons. Tremendous food city. Search this site for nashville (search bar up top) and you’ll find my posts.

Scott U: With the Astros hiring of Dusty Baker, how will that affect the development and 2020 playing time of the team’s up and coming young players like Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy et al?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will. One, Baker was better at handling pitchers at each stop after the Cubs. Two, they’re going to need those players you mentioned to play and do well to win, so I am not worried that he might choose not to play a player who’s helpful – I’m not sure why he’d even do that at this point – because they don’t have great alternatives available.

Jim : How screwed is our republic if the Republicans vote no on witnesses? Corruption floodgates open wide, right?
Keith Law: You have to hope enough voters see this for what it is – and the media reports it accurately – that something changes in November. Otherwise, yes, we’re likely to see corruption expand to unprecedented levels.

Ian: Do people realize that saying that it is too soon to talk about Kobe’s rape case in the context of his legacy is the same thing as people (conservatives?) saying it is too soon to talk about gun control after a school shooting?
Keith Law: They don’t realize it. And now is exactly the time to talk about Kobe’s history, including the rape accusation and public treatment (including by the media) of his accuser. There is no  such thing as a “former rapist.”

Jason: Keith, are you troubled by the actions at the Washington Post in suspending their reporter for posting a link to an article (but now backtracking) and their reasons for suspending her especially with hundreds of reporters there supporting her and now with what has come to light about how in 2008, they were basically fawning over Kobe and divided the newsroom then?
Keith Law: Yes, and I contacted one of the editors involved in the decision to voice my support for Sonmez. They reversed the suspension, but it speaks to a poor process that catered to sentiment rather than reason.

Debra: Is George Valera a possible top 100 candidate or do we need another year of actual production at the plate before that happens?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes, he has that kind of upside.

Marcus: I have really hit it off with a person we hired for our company, but technically I am a superior on the chain of command. Others have remarked to me that they can tell this person likes me and I like this person for sure, but last thing I want is to make her feel uncomfortable if that is not the case. How do I go about things? Wait for her to say something to me or be honest about it?
Keith Law: I’d ask a lawyer – or HR – but boy does that sound like a terrible idea to me.

JJ: Soft class next year for the HOF.  How does this affect Curt Schilling’s candidacy?  Are there really voters so wishy-washy, that they won’t vote against Curt because of his racist tweets, but will change their minds if they have no one better to vote for?  That’s just bizarre.
Keith Law: I think he gets in next year.

Justalittleoutside: Hi Keith – If the robo-ump idea prospers, will that benefit hitters like Aaron Judge who (anecdotally) seems to get a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone called on him?
Keith Law: Such a change won’t affect all hitters and pitchers equally, but I’d like to see some data to support a claim that it will help/harm a specific player.

Dark Johnny: Does Tyler Anderson have a chance to start in SF?  Can he be a back end starter now that he’s out of COL?
Keith Law: I would lean no.

Marani: Matt Harvey’s still a FA.  What kind of contract would be reasonable for him?  I remember him as being the toast of NYC just a few years ago, but he’s been pretty awful the last 3+ years, and I’m wondering if anyone would give him more than a Triple A contract at this point.
Keith Law: Triple-A with invitation to spring training. He has to show he can get someone out at this point. It’s been too long.

Ryan: Have you noticed yourself getting more aggressive in ranking J2 signings earlier than you perhaps would have in the past?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: What would you guess is holding up a Betts to Dodgers trade at this point?
Keith Law: Probably the two sides not agreeing on the players involved. Just a guess.

Dave : Would you vote for Helton in the future? Crosses the 60 war mark on Baseball-Ref
Keith Law: I didn’t this year, even though I had spots open. He’s just short for me. I reserve the right to change my mind on any votes, though.

Jeff: More productive year in second year with new team ? Bryce or Manny Machado ?
Keith Law: I think both will be better, but Machado has more room to improve right now.

James: Have you seen Hjelle of the SF Giants pitch?  And how does his size impact his effectiveness against hitters?
Keith Law: In college, yes. Would love to see him extend a bit more out front to take advantage of the height, but he’s already deceptive and last year his velocity crept up a half-grade or more.

Lester: Do you prefer Cartel or Press for coffee in AZ ?
Keith Law: Cartel. Also love crepe bar, which uses local roasters and has a real barista on site.

King Felix: any chance for me making the Braves 25 man, or am I toast ?
Keith Law: I’m very pessimistic given your stuff the last year-plus.

Dave : I’ve been reading your film reviews, thank you for those. Is Parasite your best pic choice?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s still my #1 for 2019. I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, Jojo Rabbit, or Ford Vroom Ferrari.

Scott U: After Jorge Soler’s breakout season in 2019, how much regression, if any, will we see in 2020?
Keith Law: Some for sure. How much may depend on the Happy Fun Ball. He always had talent but don’t we have to be suspicious of any hitter whose big breakout came in 2019?

Pat D: Now that he’s got two years under the belt, do you have any opinions on Boone as a manager?  It seems like he’s done a good job, but he’s also obviously been blessed with loads of talent.
Keith Law: That’s fair. He inherited a very good team and they’ve been very good.

Lester: Shluld the Indians cash in on a Lindor trade now or at deadline?
Keith Law: Now, if they get an acceptable offer.

Trey: 2019 GDP number released : 2.3%. That’s nominal growth, slightly better than tepid, and def not as Trump markets “best economy in the history of the US.” So, why can’t dems capitalize on 1) lowest corporate taxes in history, 2) close to lowest income taxes on wealthy, 3) lowest capital gains taxes in history, 4) absurdly low ongoing federal fund rates, and yet…..only 2.3% gdp? GOP economic claim that they help the middle class is laughable, by ‘almost’ any metric.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see a change in how the media – and many universities – discuss macroeconomics. Things that the econ world long believed would lead to economic growth just haven’t in the last twenty years. Some have led to modest growth but income inequality; some haven’t led to growth at all. Anyway, whoever gets the Democratic nomination should campaign at least in part on the economy.

Mike @ Seattle: As a Mariners fan, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to see your prospects package. That said and based on the little I know, I found it odd they put so much faith in White as a first baseman that doesn’t have a ton of power. What did you think of that contract? Has he turned a corner at the plate, where he’s more than just elite defense at 1b?
Keith Law: He’s a solid regular, at least. I think there’s hard contact that might lead to power down the road.

Harrisburg Hal: My sons (youngest 8) really enjoy Azul.  While I’m not a programmer, it would seem an easy game to replicate as an app.  Do you understand the process why some games become apps, and others do not?
Keith Law: Licensing.

Mason : Hey Klaw, Mike Hazen has done a really good job of walking the line of competing and still building the farm system. amazing what happens when you get a real GM
Keith Law: I wrote that the other day. I completely agree.

JP: do you anticipate the Red Sox losing draft picks for the Alex Cora situation?
Keith Law: Yes, since Houston did.

Louis: Dusty seems like a bad fit. Astros are high tech and Dusty is as old school as it gets. Didn’t he once say guys who walk but can’t run just clog the basepaths
Keith Law: He did, although I think that was 15+ years ago.

Brian: Betts is obviously great but does he provide that much surplus value given that it is 1 year and close to $30 million? Are the calculations different when talking about a 7 WAR guy?
Keith Law: If those 7 WAR put you into the playoffs, then yeah, he would.

James: How good do you think the dodger rotation minus Ryu and Dick Mtn is? With the Kenta Maeda situation, Stripling being underwhelming, And the youth of Gonsolin and May, do you think it was a colossal failure not to get any SP help thus offseason?
Keith Law: They’ve held on to their young arms for a while now; I believe it was in part a bet on those guys being ready to fill out a rotation around this time.

Nick: No question, just a recommendation. I saw your review of American Factory, and thought I would recommend One Child Nation, which is streaming on Prime Video. Excellent documentary about China’s one child policy. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: Will check it out once I get through my Oscar list. Still too many films to see. I did watch Pain & Glory last night – Banderas was outstanding.

Jeff Campbell: I don’t get why the Dodgers wouldn’t give up their two “top” prospect, plus more, for one year of Mookie Betts.  It’s almost a cinch that at least one of those two will be a bust — that’s just the way it is with prospects — and Mookie would make them the prohibitive favorite.  Flags fly forever (even in Houston).
Keith Law: Aren’t they already the favorites to win the NL West?

Dan: Are you legitimately concerned about the Coronavirus or do you think it’s being a bit blown up in the news due to its quasi-mysterious status? At this point, 8000 people in the US have already died from the regular old flu this season, so that remains a much larger worry for me.
Keith Law: It’s Ebola all over again. Get your flu shot, and get your kids fully vaccinated, and if you’re of the right age for other shots get those too. Stop worrying about the disease that isn’t even here yet – and, so far, doesn’t seem to be as serious as SARS or MERS, although that could change – and worry about the ones that are.

JP: when with your prospect package start to drop at The Athletic?
Keith Law: February 24th.

Alex: Heading to San Diego next week for sun– do you have any new recommendations of restaurants to try  (Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack for chicken sandwiches are my usual go tos)
Keith Law: Herb & Wood is spectacular. Cucina Urbana. RoVino the Foodery. And always breakfast at the Mission.

Spider Puig: How, exactly, is Moose not an upgrade at 2B when the Reds received a total WAR of -0.6 from the position in 2019?
Keith Law: Because they had Senzel ready to go at 2b; the difference between his defensive value there and his defensive value in CF is probably a win, and that’s before considering his trouble staying healthy and whether 2b is better for that.. Also, Moustakas’ defense at 2b is a complete unknown. He’s barely played it and I don’t think he’ll be average on defense.

BIll: Mize, Manning and Skubal: Do all three make their debut this year (health being the wild card), or do you see one or more of them being held back until ’21?
Keith Law: Health permitting they should all be up this year.

JP: unpopular opinion? do not do some half-assed DH to the NL option (DH as long as the starting pitcher is still in). either go full bore, or don’t change anything.
Keith Law: Full DH, please. Same rules everywhere.

Nick: I’m thinking of moving to Omaha. Have you ever been through there? Any thoughts on the city?
Keith Law: Once, really enjoyed it, great food scene, very manageable city, nice walkable downtown. It is, however, the least visibly diverse city I’ve ever visited.

Morris: The weirdest take I see on your Reds piece is that the trade for Puig got them Bauer, as if Taylor Trammell does not exist
Keith Law: In general, the Reds fans who were civil – I got more vile comments on Twitter yesterday than I had in some time – in disagreeing all seemed to dismiss the key point that they’ve traded three top 100 prospects in the last 13 months for not much return.

Matt: Careful, Keith.  Kobe was never even brought up on rape charges, much less convicted.  That story was extremely muddled, even for a “he said/she said” case.
Keith Law: GMAFB.

Michael: Co-worker of mine is suffering from major depression.  Cries all the time, can’t get out of his car, etc.  He’s seeing a psych and on meds.  Anything I can say/do that will help other than tell him I’m here for him, care about him, etc
Keith Law: That’s the best thing you can do. Don’t shy away from him at a time when others probably will.

Nick: Sonmez shouldn’t have been suspended, but can’t you agree that it was callous and tacky to re-tweet a 2017 article regarding Kobe’s rape case mere hours after his death?  THAT’s what she was compelled to announce upon hearing the news?
Keith Law: No, I don’t agree. I think it’s callous and tacky to praise him as a hero – especially talking about him as some sort of feminist – and completely ignore one of the most significant, public, and well-evidenced events of his life. Imagine how his victim felt seeing him lauded to the stars.

BIll: Do you see a scenario in which Lou Whitaker ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame? (At least the Tigers are finally retiring his number.)
Keith Law: I feel like the answer is no. Maybe if the Hall changes how it selects the people on the committees, but that seems unlikely.

Jason: I know your top 100 list isn’t coming out for a few weeks, but who do you think you’ll have higher: Dominguez or Abrams? Does Dominguez have too much risk to have him ranked super high or is the upside too good to ignore?
Keith Law: Abrams. Dominguez is 16 and hasn’t played a game yet.

Mike: In regards to the Kobe question – the stans for Kobe (or anybody) will always sound like idiots defending whomever it is they blindly follow. But a family is grieving a massive loss of both a husband/father and daughter/sister. Other family’s that were clearly connected to Kobe and his family are grieving their massive losses. IMO, this feels like the wrong time to take a stand on Kobe’s legacy, and add that to the discussion.
Keith Law: See above. This consider’s Kobe’s family, but doesn’t consider the woman who accused him of rape.

Brian: After a couple of run based cocktails do you ever think about your decision not to join the Astros front office and wonder if the highs (World Series win) would have been worth the lows (seemingly everything else)?
Keith Law: LOL, no. I have never regretted any of my decisions to decline chances to return to a front office – I think of all the time with my daughter I would have missed and I know I made the right calls.

Lara: Democrats campaign on an appeal to your greatest hopes  — health care for everyone, a perfect environment, everyone gets along, etc.; Republican campaign on an appeal to your greatest fears.
Keith Law: Fear sells.

JR: Are you a fan of The Good Place? If so, thoughts on final season (if you’ve been watching). I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely run it’s course. Always better for a TV show to leave too soon then stay too long.
Keith Law: I loved S1-2, need to watch S3-4. I couldn’t do it weekly – that is a show I think I have to binge.

Sean: As a giants fan, I kept hoping for a Brandon Belt break out…which never came and likely never will…however he has been an average-good major leaguer for a while now. I should be happy with the production he’s provided and not disappointed that he never became a superstar right?
Keith Law: Yes – can’t control the injuries, either.

J: I recently saw in a documentary that Mick Jagger used The Master & The Margarita for inspiration when writing the lyrics for Sympathy For The Devil
Keith Law: Yep, he’s said that before. That book is far more influential than I ever realized in college when I was first assigned it.

Trey: Brailyn Marquez, finally a solid recent Cubs s pitching prospect, TOR starter or power closer? And do the Cubs have any other prospects that could hit the rotation soonish?
Keith Law: More likely a power closer IMO.

Uli Jon: Did you ever review “Left Hand of Darkness”? Halfway through and it’s my genre holy trinity of concept, world building, and writing skill, the last of which is sometimes lacking in sci-fi.
Keith Law: I did indeed, and loved it.

JP: would MLB consider it a “problem” if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law: They wouldn’t, and I’m not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.

Michael: For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn’t rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn…
Keith Law: Is that what Sonmez tweeted?

Spencer: A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I’m beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can’t plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law: Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.

Lee: It’s been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it’s destined to blow up in the teams face.  I’d love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what’s happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I’m not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I’m all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it’s almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law: He can ask for that, doesn’t mean he’ll get it or close to it.

Giuseppe: Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law: Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands – knuckles, no fingertips – so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn’t relaxed enough.

Dan: Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers’ “wins” in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it’s so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law: Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keith Law: Keep calling your reps.

John: Why is Dusty’s reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law: It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.

Shaun: favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law: The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?

Erik: Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law: I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection – Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.

Kip: Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law: Fear. It’s unpopular, even though it’s quite safe overall. It’s a science literacy issue.

TomBruno23: Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law: You stay … over there.

JB: It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he’s coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law: I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.

Joe: Reds fans would like to point out that it’s embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn’t a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law: I’m sure they would like to claim that, but they’d be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I’ve pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don’t think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn’t good in 2019, but I never said that because it’s not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Keith Law: Adding this after the chat … I also think Senzel and Winker are going to be much more productive at the plate this year.

Mike: I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I’m trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it’s just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you’re right, I’d hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law: The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it’s too soon to point out negative facts about someone’s who’s died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone’s death mean we can’t discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.

Jason: What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law: Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.

E.H. Zwick: Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nolan: don’t talk about guns after a school shooting, don’t talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law: Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It’s inevitable. Then we’ll see what it’s like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we’ll regret how we’ve acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!