My ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter went up on Monday for ESPN+ subscribers, before the actual start of free agency and thus the deadline for some player options, so a few players are on there who ended up staying with their teams (J.D. Martinez, for one). I held a Klawchat on Thursday.
Over at Paste, I reviewed Silver, the new deduction/take-that card game from designer Ted Alspach, who set this new game in the same ‘universe’ (loosely speaking) as his One Night Ultimate Werewolf games.
My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, will be released on April 21, 2020, and you can pre-order it now. We’re working on some bookstore events for late April as well, with Boston, New York, DC, and Harrisburg likely in that first week after release.
I also have this free email newsletter, you may have heard about it, it’s kind of cool.
And now, the links…
- Longreads first: This Atlantic story on a San Francisco woman who repeatedly stole packages from porches in an affluent neighborhood, despite multiple warnings, arrests, and eventually the loss of of custody of her daughter, is something to behold. It’s a story about technology, including how customers are using video-camera doorbells without considering the loss of civil liberties that may come with it. It’s a story about race, certainly. But the one theme I felt the author understated was that it’s a story about mental illness: The ‘porch pirate’ is ill-served by the prison system, especially since she continues to steal packages even while out on bail, and is not getting the help she probably needs.
- A Louisiana parish DA lets defendants pay his foundation to get out of doing community service, according to this investigative report from Radley Balko in the Washington Post. The article appeared on Sunday; since then, I see zero coverage of this in any Louisiana publication.
- This episode of the podcast Citations Needed looks at ‘pundit brain’ and the increasingly less data-driven Nate Silver, whose track record of predictions has tapered off since 2008 and who has had to walk back numerous statements on Twitter. Jacob Bacharach covers similar ground in a post on Common Dreams.
- Alex Pareene writes about the death of what he calls ‘rude media’, including two entities for whom he used to work, Splinter and Gawker Media.
- The New Yorker‘s Louisa Thomas weighed in on the killings of Deadspin and Sports Illustrated by private equity bros.
- A new study in Nature (journal access required) found that many ICU patients who received probiotic capsules developed bacteremia as a direct result, using DNA comparisons to show that the bacteria in the patients’ blood came from the same bacteria in those probiotic pills. There’s also zero evidence that probiotic pills are helpful; the acid in your stomach destroys bacteria in those pills, or in fermented foods we consume like yogurt or kombucha.
- Aaron Calvin was fired by the Des Moines Register because, in short, the Twitter mob demanded it; he wrote his side of the story for the Columbia Journalism Review.
- Clark University dismissed a graduate student who had complained about possible gender discrimination and mishandling of data. This is her side of this story, but Clark issued a general statement, saying that federal law prevents them from commenting on a specific student’s case.
- Youngstown State disciplined a student-athlete who sexually assaulted a classmate by (checks notes) letting him serve as a volunteer coach on both the men’s and women’s tennis teams (blinking guy GIF).
- Anti-vaxxers use a strategy called ‘firehosing,’ repeating the same lies over and over to drown out the facts and those who try to speak the truth. Fighting these tactics involves more than just debunking falsehoods, but disrupting them by removing their podiums and forewarning people about how these propagandists manipulate them.
- A white judge in Virginia sentenced a black woman to ten days in jail because he didn’t like that she slammed the courtroom door.
- This is America: A San Diego man brutally assaulted a Syrian teen for speaking Arabic. He has since pleaded guilty and will serve five years in prison.
- This is America: A white Milwaukee man threw acid in the face of a Peruvian-born U.S. citizen after asking “why did you come here and invade my country?” Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett blamed President Trump for feeding and encouraging anti-immigrant sentiment.
- A new book that fawns over President Trump claimed that the Obama Adminstration held regular “PC (political correctness) meetings.” The author didn’t realize those were NSC Principals Committee meetings, and obviously didn’t bother to confirm it, nor did Fox News before promoting the book and this claim on its site.
- If you’ve seen the surprise hit film Parasite, which will pass the $10 million mark for U.S. box office this weekend and is by far the highest-grossing Korean-language film ever in the U.S., you know the use of basements is key to the movie’s story. NPR has snippets from writer/director Bong Joon-hoexplaining a bit more about why basements are so critical in South Korean society.
- Martin Scorcese’s explanation of why he doesn’t care for comic-book movies is worth reading, as it’s far more nuanced than the quote that got MCU fanpeople all up in arms. (I tend to agree with him. Comic book movies are entertainment, but I would not say they rise to the level of great cinema.)
- I reviewed Gary Smith’s book Standard Deviations this week; he emailed me to point to a post he wrote on October 22nd explaining the role of luck in short series in baseball.
- Twitter’s Jack Dorsey announced a plan to ban political ads, but the plan is toothless and misunderstands the nature of free expression.
- A tweet asking people to RT if they were spanked as children but didn’t become violent later in life went viral this week, but it misses the point: Corporal punishment is ineffective and harmful, while other methods of discipline, including positive reinforcement and setting clear expectations, do work, without the negative consequences of spanking.
- Alison Turkos writes about how her Lyft driver raped her and the company took no action. The driver continued to work for Lyft, and the company even charged her for the trip.
- I agree with Cass Marshall: I do not have time for or interest in video games with hundreds of hours of material. Pre-parenthood, I played the Baldur’s Gate trilogy all the way through, hitting almost every side quest, and I’m sure I put over 100 hours into it. I doubt I’ll ever have the time for that again or the attention span.
- Board game news: A reader of mine, Kevin Bertram, has designed a game called The Shores of Tripoli now on Kickstarter. This was on my BGG wishlist before I even knew Kevin was a reader.
- A digital adaptation of the acclaimed co-op game Spirit Island is also on Kickstarter, and just got funded this week.
- PAX Unplugged takes place in Philadelphia on December 6-8 this year. The convention schedule is now up and badges are on sale. I’ll be there as usual.
Hello Keith, long time reader and now first-time commenter as your link to the Louisiana DA story is actually the ‘porch pirate’ link. I was raised there so I am curious as to where this happened. Thanks!
Thanks. Try it now.
Thsnks, Keith!
I can’t get the Citations Needed podcast to open, so I’m not sure how they address this, but while Twitter Nate indeed does get pundit-brained, I think calling into question his predicting track record is off base. They nailed the midterms, and 538 had the best analytical model of the 2016 elections, even pointing out the likelihood of the specific path Trump wound up taking
The podcast doesn’t really discuss that but instead focuses on how he launders his ideology through his reputation as a numbers guy. Basically makes the case (quite well) that “telling it like it is” is a fundamentally conservative ethos, at least in the realm of politics.
Sure, drag away at Twitter Nate. I guess I was just taking issue with the idea that 538’s track record is fading. They took a ton of guff for 2016 when they had it better than anybody, and 2018 was a really strong showing for them.
Yup, I thought Nate actually did well in 2016. He pointed out that Trump was a *normal* polling error away from winning, and that polling errors were likely to be correlated. Which is why Nate gave Trump an ~30% chance of winning versus the 1% from other places that wrongly assumed that Hillary’s polling advantages in individual states should be treated independently. Pundit Nate may be a contrarian (and sometimes troll), but Stats Nate still does a good job with poll aggregation.
Here’s a link to what I believe is an important article from your former colleague Gregg Easterbrook:
https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/november-december-2019/the-pundits-who-get-it-wrong-and-pay-no-price/
I’m a big fan of his because in his TMQ columns he got political, but always saw the viewpoint of both sides of the fence, calling either side to task when he found folly.
One of his points he’s been making for many years is included in this article: Climate change articles will often make terrifying claims of things that will happen in 20 years, which is an amount of time that seems fairly close, but is long enough away that no one will remember when it does not, in fact, happen. This is a common occurrence, and in my opinion is a big reason for a lack of consensus on climate change.
Exactly. He also is one of the few “optimists” about climate change, as he notes in the end of his article that whenever there has been a crisis, (& he lists a handful of things that were doomsday scenarios going back 40
+ years) people have worked together to get the job done.
Easterbrook is a bit of a pollyanna, though; for example, while we may have more trees than we did 30 or 40 years ago, we’ve lost a lot of biodiversity and old-growth forests, which means that the forest cover we do have now is probably less effective at absorbing CO2.
Thanks for reading the article and responding, Keith. I do feel that your response is picking nits, akin to saying Zack Greinke still gets outs at roughly the same rate as he did as a younger pitcher, but not with 95 mph fastballs, rather with more off-speed stuff, and therefore he’s not as good.
Regardless, the greater point I wanted to highlight, and that I think people should remember, is the one he’s been writing about for years – so often there are climate articles that make doomsday claims of events close enough into the future to frighten people, but far enough away that nobody remembers to take the author to task when the event doesn’t happen.
If you were to write up every prospect that had a good game as the next superstar, you’d lose credibility, and even if you made a lot of good points, it would be reasonable for people to end up dismissing your work on the whole. Similarly, extremely dire climate predictions that don’t come true makes some people question whether any of it is true.
Drew, I do get some of Easterbrook’s point. Sensationalism makes for profitable journalism, but not necessarily good policy. I also think it’s fair to and appropriate to put error bars around predictions. With that in mind, some predictions have certainly worked out much better than others, and I think we as scientists are better at predictions the closer we get to mechanisms of causality. For example, past climate models have very accurately predicted what global temperatures should be depending upon CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Predicting the effects of warming on precipitation patterns is much more challenging. We do have a shining example of science informing policy and having an environmental benefit–the ozone layer is recovering following phasing out of CFCs. While the exact effects of a warmer earth are difficult to predict, it’s largely a question of how bad.
“A digital adaptation of the acclaimed co-op game Spirit Island is also on Kickstarter, and just got funded this week.”
Correction: Indiegogo, not Kickstarter
I hadn’t played a RPG in a while but got Red Dead Redemption 2 last year and spent probably a couple of months playing it. I didn’t finish it 100% but did get through the entire story and I think ended at about 90%. One thing about those games: you can have fun just wandering around doing random things that have nothing to do with the story. That just adds to the amount of time it takes to complete them.
I was hoping to see something about ABC News & the Epstein article withholding & then how ABC “found” the whistle blower & got them fired from CBS..only to find out they had the wrong person. The diametric difference in how they handled Epstein vs say, the Kavanagh hearings is profound & politics is a big matzo ball sitting out their as to the difference in treatment.
Maybe Keith can’t comment due to working for Disney, but, ABC is acting like Trump in this case..& that’s not a compliment.
I really haven’t followed this story at all.
“America (You’re Freaking Me Out)” seems like a decent musical suggestion for this week’s links roundup. Caught The Menzingers Friday night…they kill it live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5Y5wPiY0L4
Keith, since I know you often take the opportunity to expose various pseudosciences, I think you may find the below article about a former astrologer interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/nov/06/i-was-an-astrologer-how-it-works-psychics
As a bonus, the writer includes the word “woo” in her article.