Klawchat 4/11/19.

My column on the most loaded minor league rosters this spring is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Freeze this moment a little bit longer. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Yes, it’s April 11, but the Cubs bullpen might just be dumpster_fire.gif
Keith Law: And they really didn’t do enough to address it this winter. I’m not necessarily on the ‘sign Kimbrel’ train – I’ve said before I have concerns that he’s on the downswing after 2018 – but he’d be a big upgrade over literally every reliever they have.

addoeh: How much is Chris Davis’s roster status and playing time an ownership directive, rather than a front office or managerial decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess his playing time will decline if/when they choose to bring other position players up or grab someone off waivers to whom they want to give a trial.

alex: I know it’s easy to make fun of Chris Davis on twitter– but there have been some articles which discusses that he has become depressed– maybe not in a clinical sense (since there is, as far as I know, he has seen a psychologist for depression)– does that make you reconsider some of the things you have tweeted? As an Os fan, I’d like to see him retire/release/buy out, but I don’t want him to decide to end things the way Mike Flanagan did.
Keith Law: I have tweeted very little about him, so no. I don’t want to appear to be exulting in his struggles. I tweeted once about the time I argued that Jim Bowden was bonkers for suggesting the Orioles should give Davis at least a six-year deal, and made one joke specifically about Davis’ stat line yesterday. Anything more would start to feel like I was attacking the person rather the contract or the production.

Kyle KS: Do you roll the dice with Jose Martinez in RFif your the Cardinals at this point? When does the better defense (although not good defense) of Fowler stop outweighing the fact that he hits with a pool noodle?
Keith Law: I’d like to give Fowler more time; it doesn’t seem like he’s hitting with a pool noodle, as you say, as he has some hard-hit balls already this year.

Swagboy: Does Zach Eflin have any realistic chance at becoming a reliable starter for a Phillies team trying to contend? Would his (realistic) best case scenario be a #4, or could he surpass that? I’d be thrilled if he had 3-3.5 win potential this year.
Keith Law: I think he could be better than a #4, yes.

Bob: You tweeted about Daniel Lynch’s velocity in his most recent start. I saw his first start and it seemed like there was a lot of contact on his secondaries and he would resort to the big fastball to get out of trouble. Do you think he can develop a 2nd (and 3rd!) pitch that can be a swing and miss weapon as he moves up?
Keith Law: That’s not at all what happened in his second start, though. His changeup was above/plus and his slider was sometimes above.

Bob: Hans Crouse is off to a great start. Any idea if there’s been improvement on broadening his repertoire or just blowing hitters away with a limited more reliever-ish arsenal. If the latter, what’s a better approach – forcing him to throw secondary pitchers at that level or pushing him up until better hitters force him to adjust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s more of the same. Not that that’s bad, but I agree eventually he’ll have to adjust.

gavin: are the Padres for real?
Keith Law: They are absolutely a real major league team, which I imagine comes as a surprise to a large portion of MLB’s fan base. They’re also probably good enough to push past .500 this year if they stay healthy.

Josh C: Fangraphs wrote up Astros prospect Abraham Toro as being “divisive” within the industry. What are your thoughts on him? Regular, bench player, not even a guy?
Keith Law: Bench player. I’d have to know what Eric/Kiley meant by divisive to say more, although I trust them if they said that.

Keith: How many PAs typically indicate a stabilized view on K%s and BB%s? Any indication that Moncada has changed his approach in a meaningful way to reduce his K% and increase contact?
Keith Law: There isn’t a clear number for that. I know everyone wants a fixed answer, but that’s not how any statistical distribution works – your confidence that the number is ‘real’ will increase with sample size. I’d be surprised if this Moncada start was sustainable.

Mac: If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?
Keith Law: Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there’s your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that’s a reach for me.

Matt: Is this the Maikel Franco we’ve been waiting for?!
Keith Law: No, more a function of hitting 8th.

Rangers: What do you think of our new HR celebration? Inappropriate, wtf, or don’t care?
Keith Law: Don’t care. Celebrate all you want. Have fun.

KillMonger: Fried & Swanson — too early to predict whether either can sustain their success this year?
Keith Law: Too early, yes, but optimistic on both.

Santos: If Kuechel’s demands have actually come down, should the Phillies be seriously considering him? Rotation looks thin and/or volatile.
Keith Law: If I were a GM looking for pitching – Klentak qualifies – I’d be more comfortable “overpaying” for short-term production from Keuchel than Kimbrel. One, I think Keuchel is just better period. Two, I feel better about paying a starter than a reliever.

Tony Stromboli: Logan Gilbert is maintaining the velocity he showed end of last year that raised some eyebrows — at least, through 2 starts. Do you have any general thoughts about him you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I heard 93-95 from a scout who just saw him. He pitched through some minor injuries last spring that probably explained the drop from 92-95 on the Cape in 2017 to 88-92 last summer. I still ranked him as a mid-first rounder even with that velocity because I thought the command and breaking ball made him a potential league-average starter anyway.

Hank: During the off-season you praised the Jays for their hire if Charlie Montoyo. How do you feel about the hiring now that he’s come out saying he likes bunting?
Keith Law: I can still like a manager overall even if he is really stupid about one thing (and, come on, Chuck, stop fucking bunting so much).

Salzer: Do you continue to try Alex Reyes as a starter? He just seems too good to put in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Zero track record staying healthy as a starter. Not saying you don’t try it, but at some point the body is telling you something.

Aaron (Houston): KLAW, thanks for the chat. I have several relatives (parents and kids) who swear their kid (or themselves) can make it to the next level in baseball. With the chances being so small (to make it to the next level), is it not better to skip out on that dream, than try, only to fail, and possibly have no back up plan?
Keith Law: Why not make a backup plan? Not much of a life if you never try anything for fear of failure.

Grover: In the position the Giants are in should they consider trading Buster Posey?
Keith Law: Yes, but I doubt they do, given his status with the franchise.

Tom: Trent thorton – whats his ceiling?
Keith Law: It’s top-of-the-line stuff with below-average command, and I’m not sure he can ever have the command to get to starter quality.

Juwan: SSS of course, but the ball seems to be jumping off of Robles’ bat this season. He attributes the low exit velo to the elbow injury he had at the beginning of last year, it the extra base hit power is real and continues going forward, is he a future perennial all star at center, and does that make him one of the best players in baseball in a few seasons?
Keith Law: Yes to your first question and I’m not so sure about the second. I’d define “one of the best players in baseball” as, say, top 5-10 overall. I’d feel better about saying he’ll be a top 20 player in baseball. Not playing semantics games here, just trying to be clear.

James: SSS but are we sleeping on Franmil Reyes? Only hitting .143/.235/.286 but taking the batted ball data in account his expected BA is .324, expected SLG is .703, and expected WOBA is .440, all while posting great BB% & K% with a high average exit velocity.
Keith Law: Breakout candidate for me this year. Haven’t changed my view.

Jerry: I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion so here goes. Is there a legitimate reason to terminate the agreement between MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no. This reeks of 1) let’s undo the thing Obama did and 2) let’s pander to Cuban-American voters in Florida. The agreement solved a serious problem, and was between a private enterprise and a federation run by the Cuban government. The idea that allowing MLB to give money to an undemocratic regime is untenable while our government hands billions in foreign aid to undemocratic regimes that commit far more serious human rights violations is, to be kind, a bit inconsistent. Why does Cuba get special attention here? See 1 and 2.

Carter: Budget not an issue, where is the best place to sit for an MLB game? Right behind home plate?
Keith Law: Just get behind the net.

Samuel: We’re a little past the discussion at this point, but please tell me I’m not crazy. What Tom Izzo did during the NCAA Tournament wasn’t coaching, right? It wasn’t instructive, helpful, and encouraging. It was a person who was belittling, devaluing, and embarrassing someone he’s in charge of guiding, correct? I feel so discouraged that it seems I’m in the minority here, that we not only accept this behavior, but celebrate it.
Keith Law: I was this many days old when I learned that Tom Izzo is a college basketball coach. I think I only know who won on Monday because I follow Sean Doolittle on Twitter (which everyone should).

Brendan: What happens first? Chris Davis hit or Yu Darvish quality start?
Keith Law: I thought Darvish looked OK last night.

Mark: How long before Ryan Weathers is in Lake Elsinore? Is there anything he can realistically do to become a #1 or #2 starter type?
Keith Law: I’d bet on him spending most/all of the year in low-A and I don’t see a #2 in there unless he has a totally unexpected jump in velocity.

Kris: You pumped for GOT to return?
Keith Law: I have never watched a minute of that show. Rape and violence do not entertain me.

John Smoltz: What are your thoughts on Jesse Biddle? Do you think he can be converted into a starter?
Keith Law: I’d leave him right where he is.

Ben: Any new takeaways on M.J. Melendez or Seuly Matias from your recent look at Wilmington?
Keith Law: Blog post coming tomorrow or tonight. Started it right before this chat. I’ll cover Robert, Lynch, those guys. No Madrigal because he missed the two games I saw, supposedly with a cold.

Kretin: How is it in this day and age that people believe any of this anti-vax nonsense?
Keith Law: Dunning-Kruger syndrome.

Mark: Is Nick Margevicious a legit MLB starter going forward or is he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Also, I need someone with art or Photoshop skills to make a gif of Marge Simpson sneering like Sid Vicious with that punk hairdo.

John: Is Dylan Carlson a bench guy regular?
Keith Law: More.

Todd: Rep Tom Massie is confusing. He drives an electric Tesla, has solar powered house, talks all the time about conservation & sustainability. He does more to combat climate change on an individual level than most people…..yet denies climate change.
Keith Law: And he went to MIT. He can’t be as dumb as he sounded yesterday, can he? Is he just pandering to his constituents in rural Kentucky?

Justi: What does Nolan Gorman need to do to get into your top 100 at midseason? Is the lack of inclusion on your list due to swing and miss issues?
Keith Law: I had him in my top 50.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe just check my rankings before posting? It’ll make this a better experience for everyone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does a smaller sample size for someone like Julio Rodriguez, someone who the organization thought was advanced enough to tackle full season ball at 18, matter ever so slightly more? (enough to get excited, anyway)
Keith Law: No. Sample size doo doo do do do do, sample size doo doo do do do do…

Nick Grit: I’ve seen some pretty differing opinions on Casey Mize, with some referencing a ‘violent’ delivery and/or athleticism concerns. He has always struck me as a pretty complete pitcher coming out of college and pretty safe. It doesn’t seem like you are as worried as others about his health, is that accurate?
Keith Law: Yeah, those opinions to which you refer – and I honestly have never seen that anywhere – are wrong.

Bob: Better longterm outlook: Xavier Edwards, Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor.
Keith Law: Ornelas. All big leaguers though.

Blaine: Thanks for your review of the strategy game Wingspan. It’s beautifully made and a joy to play.
Keith Law: So good. I can’t wait till the next print run hits so I can tell you all to buy it.

Robert: Zack Brown has flown through the brewers system much like Corbin Burnes. What’s your report on him?
Keith Law: Also on my top 100.

Justin: Bryan Reynolds’ (obviously SSS, high babip, etc) hot start has me wondering. In general, how much can hamate surgery temporarily sap someone’s power? Would we be talking a full scouting grade?
Keith Law: I have heard estimates of up to 18 months – I remember an NHL player, Jason Allison (?), saying it took him that long to regain full strength after a broken wrist. I don’t think there’s a hard and fast rule, but I like to try to give guys a calendar year to get it back.

Ben: Any potential GUYS at LSU this year?
Keith Law: No.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?
Keith Law: The bat is that fucking good, man.

Michael: Hi Keith- Thanks for the chat! I know you have said that baseball content outside of work feels like… well…work. But wondering if you have ever read the classic “Glory Of their Times” by Lawrence Ritter about the old days of baseball and what you thought of it.
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever read that one, although I read some books in that genre maybe 15-20 years ago. The whitewashing of the sordid parts of the game’s history grate on me.

ck: Keith, you had an exchange on Twitter last week about John Anderson of Minnesota allowing a pitch count to get dangerously high. Does he have a history of pitcher abuse? My sense is that in general he is very well regarded, and I had a personal experience with him (albeit over 30 years ago) that gave me a very favorable impression of him.
Keith Law: First time his name had come up in that context with me, but his inaction in that game was a major blunder.

Nelson: Do you think Acuna, Pache, and Waters will be the Braves’ 2021 Outfield?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. And I’ll watch the hell out of it.

Grover: Why does the hypocrisy go over the heads of guys like Archer who beat their chest and flex after a strike out but take offense to a guy admiring the donger he just hit?
Keith Law: I understand your point, but as I said on Twitter about this, hypocrisy is beside the point. Throwing at a hitter is wrong, no matter who you are, and MLB should drop the hammer on those guys. It should go in the next CBA – you throw at a hitter, you get a mandatory suspension of, say, ten games. Enough to hurt the team, not just your paycheck, so your bosses and teammates might say, hey, cut that shit out, we need you to pitch.

Nils: You mentioned Mason Thompson in your ESPN article earlier this week. Is he long for the rotation or do you see him becoming a RP long term?
Keith Law: Starter.

Justi: Do the Reds bring up Senzel as soon as he’s healthy or are they gonna continue to be cute with him? He’s 23, what’s the holdup?
Keith Law: He’s hurt.

Ira: Do you have concerns about Chris Sale’s decreased average velocity on FB and general lack of usual dominance going back to middle of last season, especially given the extension he just received?
Keith Law: I’m concerned about the combination of reduced velocity and shoulder trouble from last year.

Ben: Any early rumblings at what the Tigers would do at 5? Do you think they would go for Witt if he falls or stick to college bats?
Keith Law: The list of six position players I mentioned above would apply to them too. Greene or Abrams, likely. Feel like they wouldn’t take Vaughn if he’s there.

Nick: Are you planning on seeing the West Virginia Power with Gilbert, Kelenic and Rodriguez?
Keith Law: If they come closer to me, and I’m free to go, sure. I don’t plan that far out.

TP: Can Freddy Peralta succeed as starter without better secondary pitches? Against the Reds last week, he threw 84 fastballs out of 100 pitches, but struck out 11 and gave up 2 hits over 8 IP. His other starts…not so great…
Keith Law: It’s all deception – his fastball isn’t very fast, but hitters don’t see it if he throws it up in the zone. I think he can start but have a lot of disaster starts along the way, to the point where he’s still valuable enough to start but that people in/out of the org wonder if he should be in a different role.

Josh: Was surprised not to see Dodgers’ Tulsa team on your loaded MiLB list. Not enough depth of talent there?
Keith Law: Right.

Michael: Any chance you saw that Gabe Kapler said that the Phillies can’t baby Roman Quinn? After all, Kapler said, he’s “not made of glass”. Wondering if you know if they actually had this confirmed by a medical doctor, as I have my doubts.
Keith Law: I actually thought he was made of glass, so this is big, if true.

Aaron G: Do the Yankees have the depth to lose Severino and not have to pick up Keuchel (and lose the draft pick)?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. At this point how much production would you project to get from Severino, with rotator cuff inflammation and now a lat injury that will probably keep him from pitching in the majors until at least June 1st?

Hoz: Hello Keith! Do you think Domingo German can stick and develop further into a 2 or 3 sp? Much thanks
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a reliever.

Jim: Is Josh Naylor’s bat good enough to supplant Franmil / Renfroe in SD as soon as opening day next season?
Keith Law: Reyes and Renfroe are outfielders, so no.

Everyone: ESPN’s updates on the website are whack. No pitching starts pace indicator and the FantasyCast is garbage compared to years past. So I guess my question is, what the hell?
Keith Law: Well, if I had anything to do with that, that would be useful, but this isn’t even an ESPN chat.

Mark: Do you post Klawchat schedules anywhere?I get the newsletter, is there somewhere else I need to look ? Thanks
Keith Law: I shoot for Thursdays at 1 pm when I’m not traveling. I can tell you now next week I’ll be on the road.

Bloop: So. How’d the mythical Robert look?
Keith Law: He went 0 for 5 with two punches. The universe is mocking me.

Jo-Nathan: How high would Jasson Dominguez go in the draft this year if eligible?
Keith Law: Not that high. The two pools aren’t very comparable to begin with, given the players’ ages, but what I’ve heard on Dominguez doesn’t make him a top ten talent or anything.

Adam Trask: FYI, Cuban Baseball Federation is not run by the Cuban government. It is run by the Cuban Olympic Committee, which answers to the International Olympic Committee.
Keith Law: “Answers to” is not the same thing. Who funds the Federation? Not the IOC, right?

Anya: Michigan State basketball rape story in the NY Times today. OMFG, what is wrong with colleges when it comes to sports…
Keith Law: College sport fandom is like a cult. Last June, Oregon State abused one of its pitchers, Kevin Abel, to win the CWS, throwing him 129 pitches the day after he’d thrown a 23-pitch relief outing. He was 19, so even the 129 was over the PitchSmart limit for his age, and that limit assumes regular rest before the start. I called them out at the time, and Pat Casey, the OSU coach, said people criticizing him were just haters (that we “didn’t want them to win,” I believe, as if I give two shits who wins the CWS). Abel has been hurt much of the spring and now has to have Tommy John surgery. I pointed this out yesterday … and was immediately set upon by OSU fans who are suddenly experts in pitching injuries in mechanics. They believe exactly what they want, and only what they want, rather than consider that the team or its players or its coaches might be less than perfect.
Keith Law: Also, Casey did the same to Drew Rasmussen, running him out for full outings just a year off TJ, enough that Rasmussen flunked his physical with the Rays and required a second TJ less than two years after his first one.

Chuck: Cedric Mullins a AAA guy, AAAA guy or MLB guy?
Keith Law: Bench/up-and-down guy.

Ben: When does Milb present to us a remotely friendly site and app? This is ridiculous!
Keith Law: MILB turning its app from a useful one to a completely useless one is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on that platform. Apps are supposed to improve, and add features, right?

E: You have mentioned a weaker draft class numerous times this year. Is there a chance no draftees crack the top 20 prospects next year?
Keith Law: Rutschman maybe, otherwise no.

Jake L.: Are you a believer in the Forbes Team values? The Rays, to no surprise, scoff that the team is now worth 1.01 Billion dollars
Keith Law: They’re educated estimates, but hardly precise. It’s very difficult to properly value an asset that not only isn’t publicly traded but the sale of which is effectively regulated by a third party.

Brian Godish: Once the season starts, how do you divide up your time between MLB, the minors, and draft prep? I picture your office with 6 screens this time of year.
Keith Law: Watching draft guys on TV is mostly useless to me. The angles are all wrong.

Guest: Can you confirm Luis Robert is real now?
Keith Law: I can confirm this.

scott: Jake Mangum looks like he will finish as the all time hits leader in the SEC. Does he have any professional future?
Keith Law: Professional yes, major-league no.

Jeff: It seems Oregon State lies about the nature of Abel’s injury. Shouldn’t there be some repercussions from the NCAA?
Keith Law: Ahahahahahahahahah oh my god that’s hilarious. No, they’ll probably suspend a different player for accepting a free sip of water.

Jerry: Last night’s performance out of the bullpen for James notwithstanding, if the back end of the Astros rotation isn’t doing the job by summer would James and/or Whitley bring enough to the table to keep the good times rolling or would it be time to start shopping Tucker and others for a big time SP?
Keith Law: Why not both? Try Whitley and James while exploring the market for Tucker.

Big Fan: Is ‘Insert Player’ from ‘Insert Favorite Team’ going to be awesome this year based on ‘Insert Small Sample Stat’?
Keith Law: I’m trying to skip most of those questions this week, but yeah, that’s about the size of it. Nobody knows which great/terrible start is real.

Jeff: Does it make any sense that Abel would feel a twinge in his elbow while rehabbing after being shut down for an alleged bad back?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, Jeff Niemann was a potential first-rounder at Rice (heh) and missed some starts his junior year with what was reported as a groin injury. One of my colleagues asked in a group discussion about potential picks if that was the groin that’s attached to the elbow ligament.

Esteban: Have you heard old town road by lil nas x? Thots?
Keith Law: I hate that fucking song already.

Bobby D: It the recent past it seems that you have been reading more. Were/are your motivations tied to your writing or more along the line of personal enjoyment?
Keith Law: I’m still reading at my usual pace. Just started The Inheritance of Loss yesterday.

Eric: Some people on Blue Jays twitter are starting to get excited about Patrick Murphy…justified? Any insights you can share?
Keith Law: It’s two starts.

Brian Godish: Maybe Madrigal played and you just couldn’t see him…
Keith Law: On the contrary, I could look him right in the eyes.

nelson: Talk about the black hole
Keith Law: I’m just trying to figure out how we can fire all the anti-vaxxers right past its event horizon.

Mike: If the over/under was set at “1” on Big League Regulars among McKinney, Jansen, Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez and Drury, would you take the over?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jay: At what point do the draft picks become unattached to free agents? That’s the day I think we see deals for Kimbrel & Keuchel
Keith Law: After the draft.

Guest: Keith, any idea if ESPN+ will get folder into Disney+ whenever it comes out?
Keith Law: I was just discussing this with someone last night – I don’t know, and my gut is that they’ll be separate services, but how great would it be if they were combined or even bundled like Spotify/Hulu? (UPDATE: Disney announced this afternoon that there will indeed be some sort of bundle.)

Chris: Not even looking at the statline, Amed Rosario looks like a different player this year. Turning on balls inside while displaying better patience. Exciting.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic on that one. Hitting balls harder, not getting them quite enough into the air. At some point after Brooklyn his swing got a little flatter.

Mark: I was watching a show on T.V the other day called ,”The best Thing I ever Ate.” Curious what as to what your answer would be.
Keith Law: A longtime reader & correspondent (who seems to have vanished from the internet completely, so I’m a bit worried about her) asked me that years ago, and my answer was the meatballs with tomato sauce and lardo at Boston’s Coppa. I no longer eat beef, so that dish will have to remain a memory, but I could also offer the duck carnitas at Cosme in NYC, the piedras y oro dessert at Xochi in Houston, the Wiseguy pizza at Phoenix’s Pizzeria Bianco, the grilled carrots with jalapeño chimichurri and apricot puree at Juniper and Ivy … okay, this might get long…

Keith: What insights (if any) did seeing Luis Robert in person give you?
Keith Law: Swing is better than I expected. At bats were not. My goodness he is a large man.

Chris: I got to watch a lot of Kyle Isbel and Nathan Eaton play last year in the Pioneer league and came away really impressed by both. Any thoughts on either of those guys? Any reason for optimism?
Keith Law: First two games with Isbel weren’t promising. I’ll see him a ton more this spring, though.

Nick: For the Phils, would signing Keuchel and moving Pivetta to the pen make more sense than just signing Kimbrel? (Not that either scenario is likely.)
Keith Law: Yes but I think they still view Pivetta as a long-term starter. I think he’s too vulnerable to LHB.

Steve (nyc): You have mentioned how it is like work when being in large social settings. I have similar experience and can’t get spouse to understand why I don’t always want to entertain. How do you handle this?
Keith Law: To what extent does your spouse understand why you feel this way? Explaining your anxiety or discomfort may help. Even asking them to read something that gets into what anxiety is and why we feel it could help them understand.

Big Time Timmy Jim: You’ve maintained that you never questioned Luis Severino’s stuff, only whether or not he can hold up longterm given the delivery and body. In two consecutive years, his stuff worn down in the 2nd half, and how with real shoulder/arm issues to start 2019. While I know you don’t advocate for any pitchers to be injured (and actively root for them to succeed, even if it means you’re ‘wrong’), is there just a small part of you that wants to say “This is what I was talking about, guys.”?
Keith Law: Yes, it occurs to me – I took this question, which some readers might interpret as prima facie evidence that I’m gloating – but i find it nauseates me to think about taking pride or pleasure in a player’s injury, if that makes sense. I’ve said this before – that baseball player who fails is a grown-up kid who always dreamed of being a major leaguer. I get physically uncomfortable when fans mock, heckle, or just boo opposing players who fail. I get that most fans do this stuff or think it’s fine or even funny, but that’s still a human on the receiving end of the invective.

Jerry: Carlos Correa has been pretty adamant that he won’t sign an extension. Good for him. I think every player should make as much as they can. Assuming he walks do the Astros have any SS-3B types in the minors who project as better than average MLBers by the time he’s a FA?
Keith Law: I hear Betts is the same way. Right now, no, I don’t think they do.

Mike : Why do you keep saying Kelenic was the Mets top prospect when your list is the only one that has him ahead of Gimenez
Keith Law: Because … it’s … my … list.

Newt: I don’t know if he’ll ever hit consistently, but man, watching Byron Buxton break the sound barrier rounding second en route to his triple last night was jaw-dropping.
Keith Law: And at the plate, he looks like he did for most of 2017, too. I’m optimistic.

Lawl: Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?
Keith Law: They pick third so yes. If I had to guess – this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all – I’d say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

Tim Apple: Do the early struggles of the CWS make it more likely that they will call up Cease, Madrigal, et al this summer or less likely? Stadium is empty but does control outweigh draw or vice versa?
Keith Law: Cease is a no-doubt callup, isn’t he? They’re going to need more starters no matter what, just with typical attrition, and what if Reynaldo Lopez’s bad start is more than just SSS? Madrigal I doubt we see but I would be shocked if Cease isn’t up by July 1st.

Pete: How do you usually watch MLB each night? Lots of flipping between games or mostly settle in for one on each time slot?
Keith Law: Depends on the night. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of the Padres because they nearly always have someone I want to see. Some nights I just bounce around close games.

MikeM: Yankees blog River Ave Blues is closing shop. They were one of the sites that really got me into baseball analytics and led me to learn a lot as a fan. I will miss their contributions to the baseball discussion (not withstanding Mike’s job with CBS sports). More baseball blogs should be like that and less reactionary.
Keith Law: Yes, they were one of the best team-specific blogs, and, in my opinion, a good bit less prone to the sort of jingoistic fandom into which even many decent blogs fall. I’ll always have fond memories of the one commenter there who called me a racist for omitting Donavan Tate from my top 100 the winter after Tate was the #3 pick in the draft.

Ben: How can we tell when a hot start is the 1% of times when it is real and not the 99% when it is a SSS? We hear so much about “swing tweaks” and trying out new pitches now that it seems like there is a report of something “different” on every player with a hot start.
Keith Law: I do not believe we can. We can guess, but that’s all we’re doing.

Chris P: This is the time guys generally pick up helium before the draft, so are there any guys you’ve been hearing about so far that are making the jump?
Keith Law: I wrote about Hunter Bishop a few weeks ago. Josh Wolf is a prep RHP in Texas who has surged. Josh Mears in Seattle is another one. Blake Walston in NC.

BigDaddeh: What are your thoughts on how much rest from baseball preteen kids should have. Not talking showcase circuit or max effort radar gun efforts, but fall ball after spring and summer and things like that
Keith Law: Pitchers should take at least 100 days off from throwing. I know that’s a bit of an arbitrary number but it seems in line with most of the recommendations I’ve heard from people I know with teams and from sources like PitchSmart.

Fan boy : Favorite minor league atmosphere within driving distance of your home?
Keith Law: Reading.

romorr: Adley is it at 1.1, right? No getting cute with underslot than overslot?
Keith Law: Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn’t you do that?

Daniel: Hi Keith. Thank you for offering your fans this forum. What do you think is the reason that Forrest Whitley is not with the major league club? Is this more to give him innings due to the lack of them last season or a manipulation of the service time rule? I would think he is a better option than Peacock at this point.
Keith Law: Barely pitched last year at all.

Tony Montana: Is Jordyn Adams one of the highest ceiling players in the minors that is currently outside the top 100?
Keith Law: That’s reasonable.

Draft pick compensation: HEY! Don’t blame me for Keuchel/Kimbrel not signing. These guys think they’re getting $18M+ for 4+ years.
Keith Law: I would believe it hurts Kimbrel more than it hurts Keuchel.

JR: How would you handle Smith/Alonso if you were the Mets GM? Seems like two really good candidates at same position, but given Alonso is getting bulk of playing time a trade of Smith would be selling low on him?
Keith Law: I think Smith is trade bait. Even if Alonso slumps, he’s going to hold that job for a while – they’re not going to switch the guys if Alonso has a bad week. Helps that Smith looks good physically and has been solid in his minimal playing time.

Jake L.: When you are on a scouting trip, do you prefer to eat food at local restaurants or do actually eat at fast food chains once in awhile?
Keith Law: Local whenever I can. I do eat at Panera from time to time because I can eat something healthful while working too.

Esteban: Do you get more groupies (fans) from espn, food or writing/ reading books good? I like picturing fans waiting outside your hotel for autographs
Keith Law: I do not have groupies. I’m not sure I’d want groupies, but regardless, I do not have them. As for fans, I’ve been honored by how many of you have come to my various book signings.

Erik: thoughts on Minor League Baseball restricting usage of video from the games? Just saw that Baseball America took down all the in-game videos from their site.
Keith Law: Terrible. Waiting to hear if this is permanent and, if so, what they’re thinking.

MATT DAMON: Have you been able to see Cal Stevenson yet?
Keith Law: A tenth-round senior sign? Did I miss something?

Ben: Re Buxton, watching Billy Hamilton score from second on a fly out (is it scored as a sac fly??) was incredible.
Keith Law: Yep, that’s a sac fly.

Rod: When is the next mock draft coming?
Keith Law: You have never seen a mock from me before May 1st.

MATT DAMON: What happened to Logan Warmoth? He was ranked pretty high in your 2017 draft lift
Keith Law: Contact quality has been totally absent with wood. I’m floored – I thought his swing was good and was told his exit velocities in college were no worse than solid.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: I am pleasantly surprised at Pete Alonso’s overall hitting– approach, hitting to all fields, etc. I recall you weren’t super high on him… I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s been pretty impressive on the hitting side, right? I think a 25 HR/90 RBI season and hiting .280+ may not be out of the question, especially if the Mets offense keeps on hitting. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see .280/25, and I could see .250-.260/30-35. I think I could see the latter more easily.

Matthew: I have recently entered the world of publicly published articles — I have to ask, how do you block out the unkind portion of a legitimate criticism, especially if the critique is a fair one?
Keith Law: Ignore. It invalidates the entire commentary for me.

Chris: Where does Hayden Simpson rank on your “WTF First Round Picks” list? The Cubs had some whiffs around that time period, but that was an all-timer, wasn’t it?
Keith Law: I believe that was one of only two times since I started this job that someone took a player in the actual first round I hadn’t heard of (although someone reminded me I did know who Simpson was, I had just totally dismissed him from my mind). The other was Kevin Matthews, 33rd overall in 2011 by Texas; he never got out of low-A with the Rangers, and had just one pro outing above A-ball at all, pitching in indy ball in 2018.

romorr: I’ve heard this here and there, but any truth to Trout falling in the draft because of Billy Rowell?
Keith Law: That was one variable among many, yes.

Charlie Indio Montoyo: Keith. I really respect your opinion alot. I just want to know why you think Thornton has below average command and control. He’s had a a 1.7 BB/9 in his entire minor league career (spanning nearly 450 IP), and he’s been able to locate his pitches really well in his first 2 starts (granted small sample size obviously).
Keith Law: Walk rate is not command.

Jake L.: How are you doing today after dunking on “the stick to baseball guy ” in regards to the Schilling thing? I don’t know if I ever laughed so much
Keith Law: I mean, my internal reaction to anyone who says “stick to baseball” is “go fuck yourself,” but rare is anyone so stupid as to non-ironically say “stick to baseball” when I’m actually commenting on baseball.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all so much for reading. I do not think I’ll get to chat next week, and depending on travel/weather, the next chat will probably be April 24th. Enjoy your weekends, and if you’re at any of the Texas Tech/WVU games this weekend, I should be there for the one Alek Manoah pitches.