Klawchat 3/15/19.

I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.

Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link 🙂
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.