Klawchat 3/7/19.

Keith Law: Today it’s just a place where we meet. Klawchat.

The Fonz: Kimbrel ends up in Atlanta?
Keith Law: I tweeted over the weekend that I heard he was farther down the road towards a deal with Washington. That’s the last info I have (and I haven’t sought more … that just came to me). BTW, let’s chill with the Kimbrel as future-Hall-of-Famer talk. His agent misread the market, and now the player is paying the price for that. Overstating the player’s ability or career doesn’t help.

addoeh: What anti-vaxxers don’t realize is that snake oil sales is a very lucrative business. “Dr’s” Sears and Mercola, Alex Jones, the guy who owns N*****l N**s, and the rest have made a ton of money peddling essential oils, elephant extract elixirs, and other crap they sell.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a weird, unholy alliance between these mountebanks, parents who need someone to blame for their children’s neuroatypicality, and religious cult members. They can all believe what they want, but if you want to send your kids to school, you need to get them vaccinated.

PhillyJake: Neil Huntington has made the contention that, had he signed a high price free agent, the salary differential could cause a jealousy in the clubhouse, with one player being paid a huge percentage of overall salary. Any thoughts on this type of thinking?
Keith Law: I understand his point, but don’t quite agree. One, if the team wins, every player stands a chance to make more money. Two, the other solution to that is to … sign two players at high prices?

CH: If the Mets have a rough start, an absolute fire sale of their pitching would make sense, right? Get as many good young players for Thor and deGrom as possible?
Keith Law: Yes, especially with that very, very tough division, but I don’t foresee them doing so.

Sam: I’ve been reading the Ringer’s series on the Reds’ scouting reports, and it got me thinking about how scouting has changed over the years. What do you think are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your scouting process or the league’s process as a whole?
Keith Law: Many things – I spoke to Ben about some that may appear in part 3 (that’s not up yet, I think). Scouting reports themselves have changed. Scouts are expected to be more literate in analytical basics, to be better able to provide information R&D can use, to look more at things that we think matter and less at things that we don’t. BTW, one subject I have not seen anywhere was whether the leaking of those reports violated trade secret laws or anything the leaker signed.

JaKob : Hey Keith, how do you see the Brewers 5th spot shaking out between Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised if Woodruff and Burnes don’t both get 20+ starts this year.

JP: Keith – Thanks for the chats and the insider system reviews were great, by the way. I know spring training stats mean diddly, but have you had any looks at anyone or heard reports of anything that jumps out at you?
Keith Law: I haven’t headed to spring training yet – I’ll go Saturday for the first trip. I tend to ignore info from the first week or two, since the stats mean nothing and people react more to how players look (like, best shape of his life stuff) than how they play.

Ron: Hi Keith-Thanks for all your work on prospects and all your baseball write-ups. You and Buster are the only reason I subscribe to Insider. Would it make sense for Minnesota to offer a 1 or 2 year deal to Keuchel if he would take it, or just let that horse leave the barn?
Keith Law: Yes, unless there’s something so drastic in his medicals that they’re uncomfortable even at two years.
Keith Law: The Twins are good. They’re certainly at a point where investing further in the 2019 team is likely to have a positive ROI.

Dean G.: Klaw! My man! Whats good fam? Do you think Chris Paddack makes the Padres rotation early in the year?
Keith Law: Yes.

JaKob : Does Duplantier make the rotation this year for the Dbacks? It appears some injuries would have to happen for that to occur.. What about someone like Jose Suarez for the Angels? Do either of those guys help the big league team if there is no starters role in 2019?
Keith Law: Both probably don’t see the rotation until the second half if at all.

Long Dong Silver: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez… this dude is so frustrating… seems like he has the pure talent to be great, but neither the mental durability or “want to” to become an upper echelon pitcher. Would appreciate your thoughts, thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Nice reference in your username. Amazing how a man facing credible accusations of sexual harassment has been allowed to shape US judicial policy for almost 30 years now. I don’t think Martinez lacks “mental durability” or “want to.” He’s a smaller guy who throws hard and gets hurt.

Rodney: No question today, just want to say I’ve enjoyed following you on instagram! I think it’s a good format for you!
Keith Law: thanks! trying different things there since IG is poorly suited to baseball content.

The Dude: My film turned 21 yesterday. Ever seen it?
Keith Law: Did you just ask if I’ve seen The Big Lebowski? Obviously you’re not a golfer.

Moe Mentum: Whose presumed Phillies roster spot did the Bryce Harper signing most likely affect – Altherr, Quinn, or Williams?
Keith Law: Has to be Williams, who went from probable starter to bench guy/trade bait.

Jarrod: Hello Mr. Law, is Ryan Pressly one of the more under rated RPs in the game?
Keith Law: Don’t know how to answer that. Underrated how/by whom? He’s good, a good example of how very progressive teams like Houston target players they think they can improve through R&D-based coaching, but they also gave up two decent prospects to get him.

Nick: What have you heard about Eastlake’s Keoni Cavaco?
Keith Law: Nothing. I only cover top draft prospects at that level.

Bighen: Not that it’s some huge battle but should Mets actually be rooting for Dom Smith to come away with 1B job this spring? Better D, maybe better overall approach at the plate, obviously less power
Keith Law: Yes and also there’s risk he loses any trade value if he has to go back to AAA, whereas Alonso could return to AAA for a couple of months without anyone really batting an eye (pun intended).

Dana: Any book recommendations off the top of your head for somebody who likes Tolstoy, Proust, Stendhal, Dostoyevsky, Balzac and Hugo?
Keith Law: My go-to rec for literary fiction is always Bulgakov’s The Master and Margarita. Bleak House, Middlemarch, The Return of the Native, The Good Soldier all come to mind. But also branch out into some stuff from outside the western canon – how about Ngugi wa’Thiongo’s Wizard of the Crow, GGM’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children (not a favorite of mine, but still a book of great literary merit), or Saramago’s Blindness?

JR: Do you ever go into reading “slumps”? I used to read pretty consistently and have fallen out of the habit of doing so. If you do, how do you work through it?
Keith Law: I do, and I try to read something I know I’ll love – a Nero Wolfe novel, or an Agatha Christie book, or something similarly light and fun.

Mark: Keith, will you be in AZ the weekend of the 15th-16th?
Keith Law: Nope, I’ll be home between trips.

Moe Mentum: Please rank by likelihood of eventual Cooperstown enshrinement: Beltre, Cano, Donaldson, Pedroia, Tulowitzki, Utley
Keith Law: Beltre is a no-doubter. Cano will probably get there. Utley will be on the bubble. The others are not.

Ryan: 13 years seems like a long time for a player that has only played more than 150 games twice. He is always hurt and is a horrible defender. I would imagine by year 5 of this contract the Phillies will be dreading this decision. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not always hurt, and not a horrible defender until last year, which Mike Petriello showed was probably not predictive.

Daniel L: Is it service time manipulation to keep Tatis Jr down in AAA?
Keith Law: No. He has less than a full season of games above low-A.

JR: Dustin Peterson hitting very well in tigers camp. chances he makes breaks camp with the big club?
Keith Law: Great guy for them to give a shot.

Jake: I love your baseball analysis, but on a different note, can you tell me why you liked Roma so much? I thought it was unique, but really slow and just ok, certainly not best picture worthy.
Keith Law: Great story, amazing cinematography and sound. The only other BP nominee that was close in my opinion was The Favourite. Of course, White Savior won. I wonder if some voters skipped Roma because it’s not in English.

Daniel L: Paddack’s curve seems better so far this spring no?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Wishful thinking.

eric: Keith,

Just how far under the radar is Dylan Carlson? Big bodied kid, switch hitter and will be one of the youngest players in his league this year.

I’m guessing he will see a jump in power leaving the FSL.

Is it far fetched to see him ascend into the top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He’s not under the radar at all.

Cole: Do you trust David Fletcher as the everyday 2B for the Angels, or should they have tried to find someone in free agency?
Keith Law: No, utility guy.

Yu: Do you think Yu gets back to being Yu or is he 2018 Yu? What says you?
Keith Law: Think he’ll get back to his usual self now that he’s healthy.

Roger: Which wild pitcher has the best chance of having a career as a starter between Luis Medina, Jorge Guzman and Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Medina. Most likely none of them, but Medina is at least healthy and his delivery works.

Roger: It seems that you are the high man on Oscar Mercado. Does he take one of the starting OF spots out of camp?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t be a bad move for them, but I don’t try to handicap who’ll win Opening Day jobs.

Dan: Have you listed to The Black Keys new single?
Keith Law: No, not really a big fan. All their stuff sounds the same to me.

Roger: What do you think attributed to Alex Faedo’s velo dip last year? Is it something that could return to normal this year?
Keith Law: He never really threw that hard in college. It was a bad first-round pick.

Billy: The importance of vaccinations clearly shouldn’t even be an debate. So should we be concerned about the immunization records of illegal aliens? How do we ensure they are (or become) properly immunized?
Keith Law: By making it much, much easier for people to immigrate here legally. They’re coming whether we like it or not, so let’s formalize the process, so that everyone entering the country can, say, show proof of immunization (or just get immunized on the spot), or allow us to conduct background checks for any history of violent crimes.

Zac: You are firmly against giving Luke Heimlich any publicity, but Jeff Passan recently reported accounts think he could be an MLB pitcher, have you guys talked about not giving him any publicity?
Keith Law: Jeff works with me, not for me.

Alex Anthopoulos: I was wise to stand pat with trades because not enough teams are willing to trade now, but likely will by mid season. Fair?
Keith Law: Eh. I don’t think i agree with the premise. That said, Atlanta didn’t have any obvious weak spots either.

Mike: In your Cubs writeup you wrote that Brennan Davis needs to improve his pitch recognition but a 14% BB rate as a raw 2 sport guy shows some polish
Keith Law: Walk rate – especially in complex ball – is not any indicator of pitch recognition.

Mac: I get Bobby Witt’s age somewhat matters now but projecting him out will it matter when he’s 23? 25? 30? Seems to be a lot of overthinking at the top of the draft.
Keith Law: It affects his long-term projection. You’re glossing over the empirical evidence we have that HS position player projections are affected by age on draft day. Also, there are real swing and miss concerns with him.

Beep: Andrew Vaughn. Defensively, any chance he could play the OF? 3B? If relegated to 1B, what kind of defensive potential does he have there?
Keith Law: 1B only. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Alan: Too early for draft intel? Anything on the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Way too early. Try me in about six weeks.

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

Dan: Serious, maybe ignorant question. As a white male who is raising two young boys, what can I do as a father to make sure my children grow up in a completely tolerant, non-privileged way?
Keith Law: You can’t. That’s an unattainable goal. You can raise them to be kind to others, and you can avoid raising them to think ill of those who are different, and as they get older you can point out to them that not all the kids had the same advantages they’ve had. But you can’t make perfect children; nobody can.

Osiris : Do you see DJ Peters playing any kind of significant role for the Dodgers in 2019?
Keith Law: No. I’m not sure he will ever play a significant role for them.

rufreshterp: Is it AT ALL POSSIBLE that you’ve confused Luis Garcia for Yasel Antuna, which would then help explain why you seem to have absolutely no regard for Luis Garcia?
Keith Law: Fuck off.
Keith Law: Really, if you came here to my site to insult me, then leave.

Mark: Do fans really care about the length of games?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think that they care about dead time during games – but perhaps that’s because *I* care about dead time during games.

Poke: Any chance Adley could slip to the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Any chance, sure. Would I bet on it? No. Seems like he is the safest bet for 1 right now, assuming he doesn’t get hurt (he is a catcher, after all). If the Orioles decided to take Vaughn for his otherworldly hitting performance, l would then guess Adley goes 2.

Jerry: Do you think there are still people who legitimately believe in lower taxes, less regulation, “freedom” of religion, etc? I used to give the benefit of the doubt to my conservative/Republican acquaintances. After living in NE Texas throughout the Obama and Trump years (I lived in Houston before) I am convinced that it was all a cover for people to legitimize their bigotry and racism. I can’t believe how naïve I was all of these years.
Keith Law: I do. There is a real, longstanding school within economics that argues, with some evidence, that lower taxes and less regulation lead to greater economic growth (probably) and thus to greater prosperity for all (that’s becoming less true, if it ever was). I also think that idea works better for countries trying to rapidly industrialize, like Estonia after independence, than a country like ours that is already developed and now trying to support a large and aging population.

Zihuatanejo: With Kershaw looking tenuous, should the Dodgers consider signing Keuchel? Any chance they do?
Keith Law: I was thinking Gio for them.

Zihuatanejo: I see anti-vax, climate change denial, flat-earthers, and similar nonsense as symptoms of a larger problem — the mindset of “I probably know more about this subject than the professionals who study it for a living.” When and how do you think this arose? Was it created by Internet culture, or did the Internet merely enable these people?
Keith Law: The Internet allowed those people to find other deniers and thus cement their views. Denialism goes back centuries. They’re just louder now.

JR: What was your thoughts on the Leaving Neverland doc?
Keith Law: I posted that here yesterday – it’s the post before this one.

Mark: I find that people tend to gravitate to the sort of pizza they grew up with. If i remember the pizza of your youth was Little Vincent’s which seems to be a far cry from the pizza you favor today. Was there a particular pizza that reshaped your taste buds ?
Keith Law: That was near where I grew up but not the specific pizzeria we frequented most often. I first had real Neapolitan pizza on my first trip to Europe during college and it was love at first bite.

Craig R.: Does the young man you tweeted about yesterday for the 2020 draft, Zac Veen have a chance to go 1st overall next year?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that. Impressive prospect, though. He’s at Spruce Creek – I believe I said Spring Creek in the tweet and that was a mistake.

I7LITE: The Rangers are years away from contention and just gave a bunch of guaranteed money to a closer with one good season. Shouldn’t they be dealing guys like Leclerc, Gallo, Mazara, and anyone else with more than a year of service time, rather than extending them?
Keith Law: That assumes the market will give them fair value for such players. Two corner bats, one of whom still hasn’t performed up to expectations, the other is Rob Deer reincarnated, and a reliever with one good year under his belt are not exactly highly valuable assets right now.

Joe: Do you think the Braves scouting approach will change much going from Bridges to Brown?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think Anthopoulos will have a hand in draft strategy, albeit not in specific picks.

Bob from Accounting: Your take on “tampering” as it was so overtly executed by Bryce the other day? Seems to be an outdated concept that exists solely for the sake of posterity, but I can see where the team holding the target of the tamper would get bent out of shape.
Keith Law: Didn’t see any issue with Harper saying he’d like to play with the best player in baseball who happens to be from the area where Harper plays now.

Don: I’m worried about Kyle Tucker. I expected him to rake in spring training but he’s been pretty mediocre. Are you still high on him?
Keith Law: He’s 5 for 19.

Doug: Enjoyed chatting with you and do highly recommend the Smithsonian Documentary on The Green Book. What is Griffin Canning’s ceiling for the Halos?
Keith Law: If you ignore the health questions he had out of UCLA, #2-3 starter.

Joe: Thoughts on the Hicks extension? Not a lot of money, but seems like Hicks is hurt quite a bit (including now).
Keith Law: Yes but even missing a little time a year he’s extremely valuable, and a full year of him is going to be worth much more than he’s paid.

WhiteSoxAndy: Do the White Sox still have a bright future after this epic failure of an offseason or am I doomed to watch crap for quite some time?
Keith Law: Was it a failure? I don’t see that. I’m sure you wish they’d landed one of the two big fish, but both players signed large, lucrative deals, and I wouldn’t want the White Sox to start trading prospects yet since the major league team isn’t contending yet and their system is still shallow.

Cartoons Plural : Allen Webster fulfilling the hype that he once had or SSS?
Keith Law: Can we make NSS a thing? No Sample Size?

Frank: I’m going to new orleans for the first time this summer, so you have any recommendations for good BBQ places? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever had Q in New Orleans. I’ve had the local dish called barbecue shrimp, which isn’t smoked or even grilled, but is shrimp baked/braised in butter. (It’s good.) I haven’t been in years but usually when I’m there I eat gumbo and fried shellfish.

Ty: I need some hope as a Tigers fan… Do you view Mize as a future ace or more of a 2/3? Does he realistically get called up to Detroit this year?
Keith Law: Future ace.

Mike: Angels pitchers have openly criticized Scioscia’s hindrance of progressive pitch coaching. Should we expect measurable performance increases, or is this just excitement about a new boss?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be better overall. I criticize Ausmus when he errs – okay, he does that a lot – but my understanding is that the Angels hired him to implement this new information/style of development.
Keith Law: Also, he’s so handsome.

Jerry: Will there be a work stoppage in ’21? Do the players have any chance of prevailing? Why do “fans” take the owners side in these disputes?
Keith Law: My bet now is yes.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, follow up to twitter question about duck recipe. I baught a whole duck and am looking for your recommendation on roasting a whole duck.
Keith Law: Yes, I remember that – I actually don’t cook it whole. I break it down into two legs and two breasts. You can braise the legs and then just sear the breasts; Ruhlman’s Twenty has recipes for both. I have a sous vide machine and use that for the breasts, then just finish with a quick sear, so they stay medium-rare.

MikeM: Thoughts on Severino’s rotator cuff tendonitis? Does it portend future issues or is this just a one time thing?
Keith Law: We don’t have enough information to say.

Adam: When in spring training is the lack of velocity a concern? Saw Kenley was down to 89 mph the other day. Fulmer was at 91. both said they will be good by the end of March..
Keith Law: If someone’s velocity is still off in the final week, I get concerned. If I see someone live and his effort is higher but the velocity is lower, that might be a concern too.

Nick: Fastest rising “pop up guy” you’ve seen in your scouting tenure?
Keith Law: Benintendi.

VG Jr: Am I a top 5 hitter when I step on the field after service time manipulation?
Keith Law: No, I’d take the under on that.

Nick: Best 2 prospects you’ve seen on one team (h.s or college)? Feel like Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole have to be up there
Keith Law: Tough to top that – 1st pick and 3rd. At one point, Harvard-Westlake HS had seniors Luc Giolito and Max Fried and sophomore 3b/rhp Jack Flaherty.

Thomas: Best shows you’ve watched on Netflix?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched many shows at all but Russian Doll was +++.

Todd: Gleyer and Andujar regress at all this season?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting that, especially not from Gleyber.

Nino from The Money Team: Giolito seems to sitting back up in the mid-90s but is still all over the place – are the Sox still undoing a lot of the damage the Nats inflicted upon him or is this what he is and will be?
Keith Law: MLB says he’s thrown 75% of his pitches for strikes this spring. Also, it’s March 7th.

Nick: What country could you see being the next hot bed for international talent that isn’t high on the radar now?
Keith Law: Brazil. South Africa. Uganda has had some very good little league teams the last few years; I heard from a scout who went there with MLB that there were players there who could go to junior college here, which is utterly astounding when you consider its baseball isolation and lack of history with the sport.
Keith Law: Of course India and China are easy guesses … with 1 billion people each there must be some kid there who can run 3.97 down the line or throw 95 mph, just without any baseball skills.

Danny: Not a judgment comment- actual earnest question from a Yankees fan- do you think Cano will get in with the PED suspension?
Keith Law: Yes, by that point so many of the older voters will have stopped voting, lost their badges, or passed away that PED suspensions will be seen as a minor ding but not a disqualification.

Mike: what is the defensive outlook for Tyler O’Neill, looking like he will get serious playing time this year
Keith Law: Below average defender.

Pat D: Hi, Keith. No question, just a comment. We had to put down our dog yesterday. Pretty shitty day, obviously. But I was at least able to take some entertainment and get a few laughs from seeing you excoriate those idiots on Twitter last night. Please don’t ever change and don’t ever stick to baseball. Thanks!
Keith Law: Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. Very painful to lose a beloved pet.

Nick: How many teams are still heavily working in Venezuela? Seems like employees could really be at risk with current events.
Keith Law: Maybe 6 to 8?

Thomas: Not a Harper hater by any stretch – the guy has talent and he plays hard. I just can’t believe a guy who’s been worth 1.5 WAR or less in 3 of his 7 seasons just got a $330M contract.
Keith Law: Except Fangraphs has him worth quite a bit more, so your premise doesn’t hold.

Ben: Thoughts on the moving-back-the-mound experiment?
Keith Law: Oh hell no, Karen.

JC: Klaw, thanks for another chat. I am as frustrated as anyone about the rule for bringing up players, but is there any reason the players union would make this a top priority? The union has only seemed to care about the stars and not the rank and file. Is there a way to connect this issue to the interests of current players so they would fight for it. Kris Bryant seems to be the only one preaching about it.
Keith Law: Bryant talking about it will help – the union’s motivation is that such players would get to free agency (or even arbitration) faster and, because they’re likely to be premium players, push the upper bounds even further when they get there. Harper and Machado got to the majors at 19, and both just hit the top end of the all-time salary scale as free agents. That’s good for the union as a whole.

Rick: Oops – hit enter by accident before. Anyhow, maybe I’m in the minority and I couldn’t appreciate the “art” of it all, but I thought Roma was horrid to the point where I couldn’t even finish watching it. Not that I was a fan of Green Book but those calling it the worst BP winner in recent memory apparently didn’t see last year’s winner which may be the worst movie ever made. I’d rather suffer through another Avengers movie with my 7 year old than watch that garbage.
Keith Law: The Shape of Water was the worst movie ever made? Wow. I didn’t have it at 1 – that was The Florida Project, which didn’t get a nomination – but I thought it was good, beautifully shot, with a dumb antagonist, and a great lead performance by Hawkins.

Eric: My 3 yr old son loves cooking with me and my wife. When did you get your daughter involved in cooking with you, how did you keep her interested and what tasks are best as they are this young?
Keith Law: At 3 she was just sort of standing nearby, making kneading dough or something simple like that. Now when she wants to help she can man the stove – she’ll do anything but cut or chop, really.

Danny: Do you listen to the Arctic Monkeys and if so, what albums would you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes. Whatever You Say I Am … and AM are my favorites.

Adam: What have you seen in Braxton Davidson? Anything stand out that he needs to change? Power and recognition seem to be positives.
Keith Law: Recognition is a negative. Also seen velocity eat him up in the zone.

Jared: Do you think Jimmy Nelson can get back to his 2017 form?
Keith Law: I do not have any inside info on him at all, but I would generally bet against guys who have shoulder surgery regaining their old form. A few will, the majority will not.

Mike: I have been trying to make the point to some friends on the right that we are already have socialism in our country in that we are not pure capitalist by definition. Programs like unemployment insurance, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. are by definition socialist policies. In a pure capitalist society it’s every man for himself. Why doesn’t the left stand up to the nonsense political messaging the right is clearly setting up for the 2020 campaign?
Keith Law: We are not pure capitalist – no country is – and nobody in the popular sphere is proposing pure socialism. People are proposing a stronger social safety net, which does not require any government ownership of industry. But if you say “socialism” 30% of the country will use the flag as a loincloth and vote for you.

Steve L.: Why can’t both parties admit that what Omar has stated is anti-Semitic yet there is an underlying point that is worth discussing? Or is this just grandstanding to each parties base?
Keith Law: What she stated was not anti-Semitic; what she stated was anti-Netanyahu, and perhaps anti-Israel, but Israel the nation-state is not Judaism the faith.

Dylan: Guy I know told me with a 100 percent straight face that he doesn’t get the flu shot because it gives him the flu. Instead, the vaccinate himself against the flu, he eats expired leftover meats, which helps his immune system. I kind of just backed away slowly to avoid whatever super germs he was carrying. I know people are scared of the big science words that are in vaccines but this was a new level of bonkers.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s not very bright.

Mac: Will you be seeing Priester this spring? If so, he’s only going 1-2 innings until May. (EDIT: This is inaccurate.)
Keith Law: He’s on the list of guys I’d like to see, but I was unlikely to see him until late April or early May because it’s cold.

Tom: Would you put Jake Lamb or Christian Walker at first this year?
Keith Law: Lamb. Never thought of Walker as anything more than a bench piece.

Stats: wRC+ or OPS+?
Keith Law: wRC+ is better, in my opinion.

Daniel: Can we not call people illegal aliens? I mean many of these people are asylum seekers fleeing violence that is in a large part due to US Foreign Policy.
Keith Law: The term is meant to demean them by ‘othering’ these immigrants – they’re not humans, they’re aliens! Just like in that Genesis video. (Don’t watch it. Really.)

Chris: Hi Keith, what can we expect from Jack Flaherty this year? He struck out a ton of guys last year and has looked good this spring (though that can mean nothing) but can we expect him to really take a step forward on his peripheral stats?
Keith Law: I may have missed a step here – is there an expectation he’ll take a step forward? I think last year was great, kind of what I thought he’d be a year or two down the road, so I’m not projecting improvement.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Cabello please? I’m reading a 55 hit tool with 50 PWR and 60 SPD, but not sure I’m sold on that. Thank you.
Keith Law: Happy to try to answer questions like this but if the surname is common I need a first name.

Tony: Klaw, no question but just wanted to say that in 2018 I cancelled all my subs in an effort to see what I really needed. Here we are in March 2019 and the only one I’ve gone back to is ESPN+ to read your work. So tell your boss you’re more valuable than Netflix or Amazon Prime to at least one person. Thank you!
Keith Law: Wait till you see my one-man rendition of In Search of Lost Time.
Keith Law: (Two Proust references in one Klawchat!)

Matt: RE: Jerry’s question about small government, free market conservatives – we still exist, we just are no longer republicans. Socially we have long agreed with the democrats. Now, everything we disagreed with the democrats doing economically the republicans are championing.
Keith Law: Very fair. I voted Republican for a while because of such issues, and because I didn’t care enough about social policies. I care more about those now – as I should have all along – and as you said, the GOP no longer stands for small government, lower taxes, or transparency, and they stand for reducing regulations without regard to societal costs and benefits.

SEC Guy: so trading picks is (mostly) not allowed, but could Baltimore accept cash considerations (or even a player) from KC to pass on a guy? Say for example KC offers Baltimore Yefri Del Rosario to pass on Adley (setting aside whether this is a good deal). Could Baltimore send the trade to the commissioner’s office as “for future considerations” and effectively trade one draft spot like that?
Keith Law: Illegal. Good way to get smacked like Atlanta did.

Jonathan: Chances on Jarrett Parker cracking the Angels’ roster? Career 112 wRC+ (in 382 PAs) and his approach this spring has been great (7 BBs and opp-approach with power).
Keith Law: Gotta flag you twice for bad use of wRC+. His career figure is badly skewed by a tiny sample in 2015 where he hit 6 homers in 52 PA; since then his wRC+ is under 100, in most of his career sample. And his limited major league time has also been skewed by platooning – he’s a LHB who’s faced LHP only about 20% of his PA. On top of that, who cares what he’s done in ten spring training games?

Cartoons Plural : Aaron Boone said that he’s not going to start the season with 2 1B bc he’ll have a 3 man bench, why haven’t they already cut bait with Ellsbury and Bird?
Keith Law: Ellsbury isn’t his call – that’s the GM’s. Bird they may just cut at the end of spring training if Voit is the 1b and they can’t find a trade target for Bird (some bad team without a DH should take a shot at him).

Tom: Assuming the D-backs get reasonably good value out of their many early draft picks this year, where could their org ranking end up in 2020? Top 5?
Keith Law: Top 5 is fair.

PhillyJake: Whole Duck: Spatchecock, indirect heat, pan with water underneath the duck to catch fat. Any standard sauce will work.
Keith Law: Interesting. I would assume this would overcook the breasts.

Adam: Any thoughts on the final season of Thrones?
Keith Law: Yes, glad it’s ending so I don’t have to hear about it any more. I hated the first book and never watched the show.

Ytics: I live among Reds fans, and I’ve never seen a group of people so hyped for the possibility of an 80-82 season. A colleague told me “if (8 or 9 separate things) break right, we could be .500 this year!” Makes me wish they’d traded Senzel and Trammell for Kluber. It’d be the baseball equivalent of blowing your savings on a coked-up weekend in Vegas.
Keith Law: Was it worth trading two valuable prospects to LA in pursuit of that goal? I don’t think so.

Cartoons Plural : Jasson Dominguez has gotten Wander Franco-level hype, have you any thoughts on the future Yankees prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s getting that kind of hype it’s not warranted. But I haven’t heard that either.

Mike: do you watch the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and do you fill out a bracket?
Keith Law: No and no.

Matthew: He’s stagnated recently, but do you see a future everyday regular in Lucas Erceg?
Keith Law: Has the ability, but needs to make real adjustments to his approach. Discussed that in the Brewers org report.

Jeff: Are you planning on seeing Luis Robert next week? As a White Sox fan, I hope you’re not!
Keith Law: I’m going to try to see him when I get to Arizona and I expect he will be out with a pulled sphincter or something.

Brian: Can you explain why which position a player plays can impact their bat? I’ve read/heard numerous times that if a player moves to a different position it can impact his bat? I don’t quite understand why that would be the case. I love baseball but never played so I was curious why. Thanks!
Keith Law: Some positions require more work in-game and can lead to wear and tear; asking a player to play a new position, or one he plays poorly, can require more work pregame/between games so that he might be slightly more worn down when hitting.

Grant: Keith, have you ever thought about posting your reading activity on Goodreads? I’d be interested to see what you’re reading. I’m always looking to expand my TBR list.
Keith Law: I mention 90% of the books I read in my posts here – I end every book review with a note on what I’m reading next. I’m not giving my content to Goodreads for them to monetize.

Ryan: I have ESPN+ and The Athletic now. If I want to share something from there with a friend that doesn’t have it, is it okay for me to copy and paste? Also when a writer copies your write up of a prospect and shares it in their own article, is that legal even if they fully credit you?
Keith Law: Copying and pasting something of mine online, such as in a forum or on reddit, is both not okay and a copyright violation. Quoting me in part while discussing a player, or even just discussing my list/column, is fine, and as long as you link to me I appreciate it. I’m not worried about what people copy/paste into emails. Thank you for asking, though – I appreciate that you’ve thought about this.

P.J.: Rio Ruiz is getting good reviews in Orioles camp. He made one of your top 100 lists a few years back. Any chance he’s a late bloomer and an average player at 3B this season for the Birds?
Keith Law: I really doubt it. Hasn’t performed in the high minors at all. When he shines, though, he really shows you all he can.

WAR: Does this mean fWAR is better than rWAR? Is it just a preference, or are you just saying cherry-picking is bad? I believe the big difference between the two for position players is defense, but I’ve never been able to pick up on the industry’s preference.
Keith Law: Regarding Harper, that’s not what I was saying. I meant that when the two differ that much, you can’t cherrypick the worse of the two and wave it around like it’s definitive or even directionally correct.

Spencer: Related to some research I’ve been doing: if you have three players with identical 8 hit tools, how many HR’s should you expect in a full season if their respective power tools are a 2, 5, and 8?
Keith Law: This is too abstract to answer.

J: What is the one ridiculously overplayed classic rock song you NEVER tire of?
Keith Law: The truth is I’ve tired of just about all of them, but Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” has held up pretty well.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – I am the one who asked you last week about people reposting your work. I am happy to make a comment in support, wanted to make sure this is the type of thing that would bother you.
Keith Law: Thank you, I just emailed the site in question.

Tucci Mane: Socialism involves the redistribution of the means of production to the workers, eliminating the non-working owners or investors. The social welfare state is public schools, social security, providing health insurance, etc. We should stop conflating the two things.
Keith Law: Exactly. We don’t teach this at all in school, though. HS economics classes don’t get into economic systems.

Thomas: Shouldn’t a best picture winner be something that can be broadly enjoyed like Black Panther?
Keith Law: No. Many great works of art can’t be “broadly enjoyed.”

Nick: Where have you had the best pasta in the US? Monteverde?
Keith Law: That would be the first name that came to mind. Also Rolf & Daughters, Republique, Barbuzzo, Osteria, and my kitchen.

Ben: I’ve not had the flu since I was a teen (30+ years). I’ve never had a flu shot. I minimize my exposure to others, and wash my hands multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yeah, you’re lucky, and selfish too. Herd immunity requires more people to get immunized. And if you’re nearing 50, you are at greater risk of serious medical complications if you do get the flu.

Eric: I am Jewish, and have been super pro-Israel most of my life. Only until recently have I realized that defending Israel at all costs was super wrong and I was brainwashed into doing it. Criticizing Israel and AIPAC is definitely NOT antisemetic. Bibi has been absolutely awful, and doing absolutely horrific things to people of different faiths living in Israel. What Rep. Omar said was extremely on-point and not antisemetic. It was, in fact, important for her to point out. We need to stop equating defense of Israel as the only way you aren’t antisemetic. /rant
Keith Law: Thank you. Also, getting Bibi out – he’s in some serious hot water now over corruption charges – would make a huge difference in 1) how much we should support Israel the nation-state and 2) the chances of peace in the region.

Nick: Have you read The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen? I have really enjoyed it so far.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it that much, mostly because I found the characters so unpleasant.

Chris: No question, but did you happen to hear the Jo Adell interview on “Angels recap podcast”? I was so impressed with his maturity and work ethic as a 19 year old. If he can improve his contact, I expect big things.
Keith Law: I didn’t, but that lines up with everything I’ve heard about him since he was signed.

MikeM: Bird has options left. Why would they cut him. He has no trade value. Stash him at AAA and see if he hits.
Keith Law: Sorry, that’s on me. I should have been more precise – I was thinking “cut” in a nonspecific way. But I do think that Bird has to be a DH, and the Yankees may be better served trading him now rather than burying him in AAA.

Bill: People cite Crash as the worst Oscar winner of recent memory (a well deserved nod) but I find Million Dollar Baby equally hideous…full of one-dimensional characters, manipulative scenes and hackneyed dialogue. Lifetime has done better work…do you have a recent winner that grates on you.
Keith Law: Other than Green Book, which is terrible, I’d say The Artist, which is a trifle and very self-serving (look how important movies are!). The best movie I saw in that cycle was A Separation, which won Best Foreign Language Film, and among BP nominees, Hugo and Midnight in Paris (yeah, I know) were clearly better than The Artist.

Elton: Is Mejia going to become a star in San Diego? Do you think he’s ready this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, and if he stays at C he’s a star.

Chris: I think the guy above may have been asking about Antonio Cabello. Also, they will option Bird to AAA, no reason to cut him entirely, right? It’s not like he’s being blocked by Goldschmidt should things finally click.
Keith Law: That was my first guess – Cabello was my #9 prospect in the Yankees system, and I even had one exec suggest him as a top 100 guy, so yeah, he’s for real.

Andy: With Wieters entering the itinerant stage of his career, if he a disappointment? If you’re the Orioles, are you satisfied with the pick and the value he’s produced? The PECOTA projection skewed expectations, but is 8 years of a starting catcher good value?
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s a bust for a 5th overall pick.

james: how can I get your lists in canada. called espn and they said they can’t do nothing.
Keith Law: did you say signing back up through the VPN didn’t work? Even if you choose digital delivery of the magazine?

Elton: I will be embarking on Charterstone soon with my board gaming friends. Have you played any other legacy board games?
Keith Law: Only that and Pandemic Legacy. Charterstone is wonderful.

Jake: Who is more likely to make an impact in 2020: Vidal Brujan or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Lux is closer.

Ryan: How does J.J. Bleday compare to junior year Bryan Reynolds at Vanderbilt?
Keith Law: Bleday more polished, Reynolds more toolsy.

Ben: Do you think Charlotte, Nashville, or Raleigh would be the most viable MLB city?
Keith Law: Nashville of those three. Austin if we’re looking at any city.

PhillyJake: Adding my own $0.02 to the AIPAC discussion – Actually, scratch that. Read Thomas Friedman’s piece in yesterday’s NY Times. I can’t say it any better than he did. PS. Why did Jim Jordan get a pass for his racist reference to Steyer, replacing the S with a $ ? Yeah, I know it’s whataboutism. But there seems to be a double standard.
Keith Law: Of course there’s a double standard. Until the GOP suffers a resounding loss some November, it won’t change.

Dr. Lizardo: Keith, first of all, thanks for the chats and thanks for your postings on vaccinations. Opinion on Jesse Winker, does he make a few all-star teams before he is done?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s the kind of player who deserves to make some All-Star teams and never makes one because high-OBP middling-power LF types don’t make AS teams. But I’m a fan.
Keith Law: Good example of a guy I totally misread in HS. Saw him awful vs a bad prep LHP. Obviously not a tools guy so I didn’t have that as a fallback. Guy gets into pro ball and shows the plate discipline of an advanced 23-year-old. I reversed course right away but that’s still a mistake.

PhillyJake: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/opinion/israel-ilhan-omar.html
Keith Law: That link is Thomas Friedman, trying to make the case against Ilhan Omar, but in the process making the case for Ilhan Omar.

Jake: Your ESPN work is pretty firmly behind a paywall, which actually makes a subscription worth something. What about these sites where you get “10 Free Articles”? Do they not realize that either private browsing or clearing your cache is an easy way around this?
Keith Law: So many people won’t bother with workarounds that they likely find it’s effective enough.
Keith Law: OK, gotta move along … went overtime this week since chats the next few weeks may be intermittent as I travel for spring training. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions – so many good ones, baseball and other, that I couldn’t get to this time. I’ll try to do another chat next Thursday as long as my flight is on time.