With the Oscars coming up tonight, I’ve put together this post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I’ve reviewed. I’ve seen everything nominated in all of these categories except one documentary, one foreign film, and one animated short.
Chris Crawford and I also recorded a podcast (for the second year in a row) to preview the Oscars, which you can download via iTunes or SoundCloud.
Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Who will win: Roma
Who I’d vote for: Roma
Snubs: I don’t understand why the Academy would only fill eight of its ten allotted spots for nominations in this category, especially in a year with easily twice that many films worthy of the honor. The two most obvious candidates the Academy overlooked here were First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk, but I’d also have pushed for Burning, Cold War, even Widows before pablum like Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody.
Best Director
BlacKkKlansman
Cold War
The Favourite
Roma
Vice
Who will win: Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)
Who I’d vote for: Roma
Snubs: I’m surprised Bradley Cooper wasn’t nominated for A Star is Born.
I’d be very surprised if Cuarón lost this one, even if Roma doesn’t win Best Picture.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Virgo Mortensen, Green Book
Who will win: Bale
Who I’d vote for: Cooper
The Academy really botched this category, giving four of five nods to actors who portrayed real people, three of them giving us extended impersonations that were more remarkable for their accuracy than for any depth of performance. The fifth is playing a role that has been played three times before. Is that what the Oscar is supposed to reward? Is this acting, or just impersonating?
It seems like Malek has the popular momentum, and maybe he and his prosthetic teeth will win the award, but I’ll be a bit contrarian here and predict Bale takes the honor because the role is also more ‘important’ – Vice is an unabashedly political film, an outright attack on the legacy of the George W. Bush years, that has to resonate with the generally left-wing voters of the Academy.
Snubs: Woof. Ethan Hawke for First Reformed and Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here come to mind immediately. Ryan Gosling was great in First Man; Stephan James was solid in If Beale Street Could Talk.
Best Actress
Yulitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who will win: Close
Who I’d vote for: Colman
The Wife was the worst movie I saw in 2018 – it is awful, sentimental, hackneyed, one-dimensional dreck – yet Close seems likely to win for a fine performance of a poorly-written character.
Snubs: No shortage of whiffs here either – Rosamund Pike for A Private War, Joanna Kulig for Cold War, Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade, Viola Davis for Widows, Natalie Portman for Annihilation, Juliette Binoche for Let the Sunshine In, Claire Foy for First Man (perhaps as a Supporting Actress).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Who will win: Ali
Who I’d vote for: Ali*
I put an asterisk there because I’m torn between Ali and Driver – BlacKkKlansman does not work without Driver’s performance. Grant is wonderful as well.
Snubs: Rockwell belongs here least of all – he’s just doing a good impression of W. as an amiable post-frat boy. His slot should have gone to Steven Yeun for Burning, and you could make a case for Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who will win: King
Who I’d vote for: Weisz
King has been penciled in as a lock since before this movie even hit theaters, even though she’s not in the film very much and her role isn’t all that well-written. Weisz and Stone both had far more to do – there’s a real debate over whether those are supporting roles at all – and do more with what they’re given.
Snubs: Elizabeth Debecki for Widows. Her performance was the film’s biggest revelation and she had by far the best story arc of the script; Adams’ spot should have gone to her.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
What will win: BlacKkKlansman
What I’d vote for: If Beale Street Could Talk
This feels like the spot where Spike Lee gets an Oscar, even though the screenplay for BlacKkKlansman was all over the place. Of course, I think Burning deserved a nomination here, certainly over the Coens’ screenplay for what was basically an anthology.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
What will win: The Favourite
What should win: The Favourite
As much as I loved Roma, the screenplay itself is the least important part of the film – it’s the look, feel, and sound of the thing, as well as the lead performance by Aparicio.
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
What will win: Roma
What I’d vote for: Roma
I haven’t seen Never Look Away, from the director/writer of The Lives of Others, because it’s 188 minutes long. This feels like a dead lock for Roma, but my #1 movie of 2018 was South Korea’s submission, Burning, which made the shortlist (of nine films) yet missed the cut for the final five. It absolutely should have taken Capernaum‘s slot.
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
What will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
What I’d vote for: Isle of Dogs
This also feels like a lock, although I think Spider-Man is notable only for its animation style, with a very undistinguished story that relies on superhero tropes and far too much violence for its audience. Isle of Dogs may have come out too early in the year, and it may have suffered from criticisms of its portrayal of Japanese culture, but it’s a better movie across the board – and so is Mirai.
Snubs: Tito and the Birds, a Brazilian film with gorgeous animation and a good story, would have been a far better choice than Ralph Breaks the Internet, which is a mostly forgettable sequel.
Best Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County, This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
What will win: Minding the Gap
What I’d vote for: Of Fathers and Sons
I haven’t seen Free Solo yet – I will in about two weeks – but I truly have no good sense of what’s going to win this one, especially since the most popular documentary of 2018, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, was one of the biggest surprise omissions of all of the nominations this year. It’s remarkable that Of Fathers and Sons was even made, and its story is as important as any of the five nominated films.
Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
What will win: Bao
What I’d vote for: Weekends
I haven’t seen Animal Behaviour, but any of the other four could win and I’d be happy with it. All are well-made, appealing to look at, and boast strong, short stories. I’d say Late Afternoon is the weakest of the four.
Best Documentary Short
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Lifeboat was the only one of these I didn’t fully appreciate; the others are all excellent. A Night at the Garden was assembled from existing footage of a pro-Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden in the 1930s, and runs all of seven minutes; I can’t see voting for that over the others, which are all original works. End Game is the most moving, and devastating. Black Sheep is the most original. Period. End of Sentence. has a wonderful story of female empowerment. I’m fine with any of those three.
You left out Rosamund Pike from your Actress snubs, methinks, since I know you’ve extolled her performance multiple times.
I finally watched Roma last night and I was underwhelmed, unfortunately. I honestly fell asleep during the first half hour, somewhere between when the father left and when the boyfriend left. Maybe that’s because it’s busy season at the office for me, but…yea. I thought it was technically very well made, but I just felt like there wasn’t enough story. I guess it also bothered me that it’s supposed to be based on Cauron’s memories, yet the children are barely involved in the story. Was that the point, that it was just supposed to be Cleo’s story? Not that it’s a far comparison, but I thought Shoplifters was better.
Oh, well. The Oscars disappoint me most years, and this year will be no exception. Only 6 of the BP nominees made my personal top 20, and only 3 were in the top 10. And I still haven’t seen Burning or Cold War. Widows and Isle of Dogs were robbed!
added Pike
I can’t judge movies accurately because how much I enjoy a movie depends on how I feel in that moment. I enjoyed the Favourite and Blackkklansman the most though.
If I understand the nomination process correctly (and I may well not), voters rank their top 10 films of the year on the ballot. In order to get a best picture nomination, a film needs to be in the top 10 for appearing on the most ballots, but also be #1 on a certain percentage of ballots (I think it’s 5%). This is how we end up with a variable and flexible number of best picture nominees every year.
It’s a flawed process that if I had to guess was designed to keep popular films that everyone liked but weren’t actually good movies from nominations because they all made the end of many ballots.
I’ve not found myself feeling very strongly about anything this year. I admired the craft behind Roma, but didn’t love the film. Given the choice between seeing it win, and something like Green Book, however, I will gladly accept that.
Pretty much agree with the entirety of your analysis here.
1. I assumed Cooper was nominated for best director (it was his first go-round, no?) until I read this.
2. I loved Isle of Dogs but agree with why you think it won’t win.
3. I agree with Pat that Roma requires a bit of patience but I found the second half to be pretty gripping and think it should win the three categories you’ve predicted because of its composition and performances. I’ll disagree with Pat that the kids weren’t involved; I think their relationship with Cleo tied everything together.
I don’t think I could watch Free Solo, but I’ve seen Alex Honnold in TV interviews and his hands have their own solar systems.
It definitely made me sweat a bit, but at least on the small screen, the more vertiginous moments are attenuated a bit. I saw it in IMAX and while I was uncomfortable at times, I still loved it. But yeah, there’s a lot of “Nope!” in it. Hard to fathom someone actually attempting El Cap without ropes. (Or with them, frankly.)
I’m happy that Free Solo won…I loved it. Besides the amazing visuals, I think it was a good meditation on genius/greatness and also had some interesting meta-commentary about the making of a documentary about something so dangerous. The scenes showing/interviewing the cameramen were some of my favorites.
@Keith, I am interested in knowing how much research you do before you view a film. I enjoy watching a film with as little prior knowledge about the film as possible. In some cases, I find this a good way in developing my own opinions on a movie while also avoiding spoilers and other influences. In other cases, such as Roma, I feel like I was unprepared… I wish I knew more about the class and political issues that were pretty central to the film. Thoughts?
I prefer to read up on films after I’ve seen them.
I actually thought Joaquin Phoenix was better in Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot than he was in You Were Never Really Here. And Ethan Hawke’s most impressive work this year, imo, was not in First Reformed but the directing he did on the movie Blaze. But of course Blaze and Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot made about 10 dollars combined, so no Oscar love for them…
I’d never even heard of Blaze till you mentioned it.
If you do see Blaze, let me know what you think. It’s the TYPE of film I usually don’t like – murky and phantasmagoric, like some of Altman’s misfires in the late ’70s/early ’80s. So it’s not for everyone. But for me it works. And I think the actors are terrific (Alia Shawkat, who’s almost always great, but also non-actors like Ben Dickey and Charlie Sexton… and Kris Kristofferson gives maybe his best performance ever even thought he’s only on screen for about 4 or 5 minutes).
Widows being mentioned shocked me. Thought it was a total train wreck. Absurd plot points, throwaway scenes and a comical ending.